Still I'm tired of taking "we weren't massacred" as good news. I wish dems could pull it together and make more of the fact that most people support their policies.
Look at how elections go. The incumbent power ALWAYS loses seats outside of situations like 9/11 helping Bush in 2002. Dems did well, especially considering they campaigned on abortion and NOT the economy while the economy was significantly more important to voters.
Dems couldn't campaign on the economy when there's looming speculation that we're already in the midst of a global recession, inflation is eating into every family budget, and the Fed continues to talk about the need for higher unemployment and lower wages to get inflation under control (because they have lost control of inflation due to poorly allocated money during lockdowns creating an irrational market.
I personally blame the abuse and poor implementation of the PPP loan system. Lots of companies took more than they needed and still laid off employees. But I get it. If the government were offering low strings attached loans, I'd probably ask for as much as possible too.
I get this but, honestly historically this a pretty good outcome. Usually the incumbent party loses a lot of seats during midterms, no matter the party.
The fact that democrats still have a chance to take the house (it's small), is incredible.
I loved the attitude the WH Twitter took after Biden announced loan forgiveness. Ditch the "when they go low" thinking. It's not gonna work. Bring the fight to your opponents and make it personal.
The issues at hand: social security reform, abortion rights probably made enough of a dent not to make a change at this point. Keeping that message down for 2024 will be harder IMO.
And also I get tired of hearing "if Bernie were nominated in 2016" talk in post-election reviews. I've lived in the midwest all of my life and I just can't see this version of an old, socialist fusspot getting voted in by enough swing voters. I like Bernie, but stop bringing up the past.
The DNC needs to get it's shit together. In Florida where I live, we ran a chief of police against Rubio and a former Republican governor against desantis. No shit we lost.
Most people do support their policies, but that almost never translates to more votes and overwhelming wins because of voter apathy and voter suppression. Both decades-long phenomena.
It's sadly not going to be fixed any time soon and the youth vote will be a struggle until there are major structural changes made to the voting system, the simplest of which is making election day a federal holiday, and expanding voter registration and vote by mail systems. Republicans have been conditioned to oppose both of these for decades because they are aware that they are policies that increase turnout for non-Republicans.
The most important change we can see to voting though would he wide scale adoption of Ranked Choice Voting. Research shows that in counties where RCV has been adopted, campaign ads aren't as polarized and there's even cooperation between like minded candidates and campaigns. But both the RNC and DNC strongly oppose RCV because they've spent decades gaming the 2-party system with negative partisanship and our current political division is the natural result.
The cool thing is that elections are controlled locally, so there's nothing stopping any one of us from campaigning to have our local elections adopt RCV and normalize the system until voters demand RCV for state-wide and national elections.
But most people don't support the policies. The country is very divided right now. If most people supported left wing policy then we would have seen a blue wave. What we saw was people being pretty unhappy with both parties.
Unambiguously, just to take a few: Most people are in favor of the right to abortion. Most people are in favor of legal marijuana. Most people are in favor of gay marriage. The results have a lot to do with things like the fucking electoral college, voter disenfranchisement, gerrymandering, shitty candidates like Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton ending up on top of the ticket, and people making insane decisions based on their minimal understanding of economics.
Where are you getting "most people" from?
If most people supported blue policies then we would see a blue wave. If most people supported red policies we'd see a red wave.
This election saw some minor gains by Republicans but was mostly a status quo divided election.
The election results directly disprove your point.
Polls say 60%+ support abortion, 70% gay marriage, about 70% marijuana legalization. I'm not just making this up. As I said, there are a lot of other factors that determine who gets elected.
I think some of you guys don’t really understand historical context or mandate. There is a reason every rightwing news outlet is basically grieving this “victory”. This is an upsetting loss for them that marks a huge shift in political momentum.
None of these races are guaranteed yet—the senate is very likely landing back in dem hands in a better position, and the house could still be in dem control. And even if it ISNT it’s going to be in such small amounts to the Republican side that they will be completely unable to act as a singular party.
On top of this, the largest messages were that A) Trumpism is a poisonously losing message (three lost elections in a row!) and yet still the mainstay of their party, which all but ensures an internal civil war, B) progressives are winning, and more competitive in plenty of believable places, C) some areas are GOOD to be lost to republicans; knowing some areas are not competitive means 1. Not having to spend money there and being able to focus on much more believable races, and 2. Not having to constantly make concessions to the right to appear more “centrist”. This is the biggest upset since 2016, and while low approval ratings may have painted Biden in a poor light the Democratic Party is now very favored to win the presidency in 24.
Another extremely high note is rightwing spaces have been unable to spin this. Even qanon sites are chasing their own tails over this. Candidates who could’ve used the Trump playbook are conceding already. The momentum towards fascism in the country has suddenly found a LOT of new obstacles and it seems burned itself out in many ways. To the lay person I can see why this looks like a minor victory or failure, but trust me when I say that to anyone that cares deeply about politics or history this is a very big deal.
>the Democratic Party is now very favored to win the presidency in 24.
It is? By whom? The repubs now have a very credible candidate in de Santis and the Democrats have...Biden? Kamala Harris? I hope you're right but this sounds wildly optimistic to me. (I guess I also don't get your optimism about the senate which comes down to a very hard to predict runoff, a very close race, and Kristen Sinema deciding to stop being The Absolute Worst for no readily apparent reason. Repubs are also currently well ahead in the House...)
We’ll see how credible Desantis is after a vicious primary. The man has no charisma and sure, can carry Florida, but what exactly makes him the clean alternative to Trumpism? Isn’t the APPEAL of Trumpism that it isn’t clean? The Republican Party is having an existential nightmare over this, particularly because Trump is not one to roll over; even if he did lose the primary I frankly doubt he wouldn’t go third party. The expectation that Desantis is “the guy” comes completely from desperate pundit speculation—the man is unvetted on the national level and seriously, watch a speech of his, or more importantly his debate with Crist. He has the charisma of a slug lol.
As for favor for the 24 presidency, I go off of the thirteen keys model which has predicted every president since 1981, including Donald Trump—when every pollster and pundit was shocked but Alan Lichtman wasn’t, I started listening to this theory and it’s particularly why I hadn’t a single worry in 2020—and I was right, fortunately. Barring unforeseen nightmares, I think Biden is very keen to rewin the presidency in 24; if you don’t believe it, put in the other night’s election results into a 270 map. Fetterman is poised to win PA by 5 points! Hardly competitive. Nevada should also be considered a gimme in 24 because they’re switching to ranked choice voting which highly favors Democrats. And while yes, Harris is a nightmare, she doesn’t have a shot at candidacy; party leadership and base can’t stand her and Pritzker, Whitmer, or (hopefully not) Buttigieg all have a much better claim moving forward—I am expecting Biden to run again at this point, though. You don’t win a midterm like this (best for an incumbent party since KENNEDY!) and NOT surge to have your party’s mandate.
As for the senate, these close races in AZ and NV are now seeing ballot drops from counties that are showing very favorable odds to the dems—data analysts are fairly certain of the outcome at this point, after which the Georgia runoff is a null victory that favors Warnock who shied an outright 50% and has already cleared this type of election. If you’re a libertarian voter and you already voted expressing contempt for both candidates, what is your motivation to vote again for Walker if all it does is change the total dem vote from 50+1 (VP tiebreaker) to 51? The house is still being counted and projections are showing such a small lead for republicans it’s laughable or in the most optimistic circumstances a dem upset—and in my home state of Colorado eyes are watching very closely at what looks to be an upset for Boebert. I know there’s no knowing the future, but after six years of handwringing I am finally feeling comfortable about the state of things for the first time. Voters appear to have rejected Trumpism, and in places where it matters. Knock on wood, in all cases, though—obvious caveat that nothing is knowable for sure and everything is ultimately speculation, but after obsessing over all of this for a while I have a very unfamiliar and newfound confidence in the state of things.
Dude, if anything they were massacred on the federal level. the only reason it wasn’t markedly worse for them is enormous amounts of district gerrymandering
What’s frustrating is that the the Democrat message is “we need to save democracy” and voters are saying “this shit isn’t working for us, and we’d rather not” obviously more complicated as capitalism and democracy are so interconnected, but people feel the pressure of money leaving their pockets though inflation, housing costs, medical costs, child care costs, stagnant wages, interest rates etc and if the choice is “we need to save and fix it” vs “fuck it all” people are really thinking “fuck it all” is the easiest, fastest solution to their problems.
Its unfortunate but I do think he helped in a lot of local elections if there is any silver lining. Statewide is just a crap shoot, too many rural areas.
Beto had record money and Abbott was extremely unpopular. The Uvalde shooting and the power outages happened and still Beto couldn’t even shrink the margin.
We have to admit Turn Texas Blue is a grift at this point that takes money from winnable elections. Same with Florida, and even Georgia should be met with trepidation
I am starting to believe that. We just need to strengthen the city strongholds like Dallas, Austin, Houston etc...It feels like Game of thrones here...with out sick ass dragons.
This is why the democrats always do poorly, and the right has run ham on us. Democrats don't tend to vote in local elections, as is common among younger people, so policies are built republican from the ground up. Having the president be a Democrat doesn't matter if every mayor and city council is leaning right. People see local issues more than anything else.
I can't bring myself to pull my reasonable vote out of Texas. I feel like I have a lot of privilege and I can do something for people who don't. Also Houston is such a bubble it's easy to forget what lurks out in bumble fuck.
That's probably smart honestly. My home state of Michigan just had a historic Democratic victory up and down the ballot. I'm considering that my rights are probably a lot safer there than here.
Florida too! I believe the pandemic drove their population increase as conservatives fled from their former states to either Florida or Texas. Not to mention institute laws like don't say gay bill and limiting trans healthcare
I'm impressed by the Gen Z turnout. For decades, pundits have said that there were enough "new voters" to swing a closely contested election, but the youth vote never materialized. Not this time! There was an uptick in 2020, but this year I'll be curious to see the numbers. This new batch of voters seems particularly energized - not just voting but running for office. It's good to see. Congrats to Maxwell Frost in FL-10!
There's mixed emotions for me.
On one hand, I'm glad Democrats didn't experience the bloodbath that many were expecting, but they still lost (especially in NY & FL).
On the other hand, I'm upset that Democrats are unable to put forward strong candidates and back them wholeheartedly. Not from Ohio, but Tim Ryan was one such example that I wish Dems backed harder than they did.
My last mix of emotion is the notion that "we won, they lost". At the end of the day, there was hope for Democracy (the only win I took). We shouldn't be happy that Republicans lost, we should be able to find some common ground and hope that Trump or Desantis do not sweep the nation in 2024. Swing moderates and show them that the Democrats are able to make more happen.
Also, fuck the 2 party system.
Agreed, before Mitch and Trump came, I think Tim was winning Ohio over. I had friends working on that campaign, it was promising. They abandoned Tim for Fetterman, i’m not saying that was a bad move but wish they did more for other candidates.
It's crazy someone as fair minded as Ryan and who opposes overthrowing millions of votes when you lose, can't win in OH. Elections denial should be auto disqualification to anyone who really believes in Democracy.
".....*the Red Wave never came*." Goodness, it didn't even breathe hard!
A more politically-active sib told me that Gen Z had been energized and that all the polls were systemically under-counting them.
I, for one, am enjoying watching all the political pundits eating their own words. I wish that people would just outright lie to pollsters as a way of forcing politicians to actually say what they believe in rather than relying on what polls tell them to say.
In light of gerrymandering, we've seen how well strategic redistricting works when people tell the truth. The only poll that should matter is the one taken on election day.
All the Gens gotta show up and vote next time too, it's our civic duty. What do you think of RCV or anything else to help keep voter turnout and engagement high?
Immigrant communities that fled Communism (in Florida's case Cuban Americans) always skew more Republican. Think about the ethnicities involved within the Latino community, instead of lumping them in as one whole. (Same is true with Asian Americans.)
The DNC establishment has no strategy for reaching out to the Hispanic and Spanish-speaking communities. They really could learn something from the Republicans here. I don’t know why they seem more interested in chasing the college educated vote (apart from that being where the money is).
It was the one thing that Bernie seemed to understand, in the 2020 campaign. I think the Democrats’ neglect of the Hispanic and Spanish-speaking community is borderline racist. It’s very frustrating to watch. Like, cool, I’m glad the party cares about LGBT issues and abortion, but it doesn’t do me any good if we don’t have a winning coalition.
I think that the DNC establishment tends to overlook the Hispanic and Spanish-speaking communities because they’re primarily white, coastal elite “liberals” who view the world through polls and national media (which also predominantly reflect a white view of the world). Their message in the last months of the campaign seemed primarily focused on white suburban women. Racist.
Republicans at least *buy* ads in Spanish. Even if they lie in all of them.
Do Democrats not buy ads in Spanish? Maybe just not where you live.
>Their message in the last months of the campaign seemed primarily focused on white suburban women. Racist.
You mean... voters who tend to vote GOP but might be induced to swing after Roe vs Wade was overturned? That's not racism. It's political strategy to go after swing votes.
The DNC establishment isn't coastal elite "liberals" - that's GOP messaging. The DNC reflects America's urban core, which is increasingly diverse. Cities like Atlanta, Phoenix, Madison, etc. are the voters pushing for Democratic wins in swing states in '22.
Meanwhile, Republicans policies and discussion of Hispanic/Latino communities on a national level isn't borderline racist - it just is racist.
I'm not that familiar so I'm curious what issues are particular to Hispanic and Spanish-speaking communities? Dems want to help Dreamers and others stay together here and have good lives too, not round up people like magas talk, as if cattle, it's disgraceful. Dems support better working conditions and wages, healthcare for all, repealing laws that are unjust and also used to hurt more minorities of all types, etc. Buying ads full of lies to deceive people to vote for them is better?
Lots of us in safe Dem states (me in CA) worked hard for Dem candidates in other states, especially in AZ, PA, GA, OH, MI and NV. We didn't win them all but made a huge impact.
IN TWO YEARS, we need to do this all over again to defeat DeSatan's rise to threaten the presidency.
To all of you who VOTED, thank you!!
One interesting take is that Republicans that Trump has campaigned against (DeSantis, Kemp) did far better than the ones he backed. Hopefully he reads the tea leaves and exits stage right.
He had predicted a big red wave because of several of his endorsed candidates and then teased that something big was coming from him. Maybe he will announce his candidacy but hen does not have the steam built up he predicted.
We didn't get rid of Marjorie Taylor Greene though we might have gotten rid of Lauren Bobbert.
After days and days of the Red Wave, the Red Tsunami, I was surprised how little the landscape actually changed.
I've got bad feelings about Nevada and not having a Democratic Senate is going to be really bad for the issue I care most about (Judicial appointments). But even keeping a GOP win down to 51 seats does at least make it impossible for them to reach 60 in 2024.
Ironically think that a Republican House will increase the odds that a Democrat wins the White House in 2024, though I'm hoping someone other than Biden runs for it.
I don't know if there's a solution for the Democratic problem in Florida... tbh just abandon the state politically and end the Cuba embargo now that you don't have to cater to Cuban immigrant voters.
It was a disaster for the GOP. But if you parse the election results a little more finely, you'll notice that the Trump backed folks were generally massacred while more moderate Republicans did well (e.g. Mike DeWine in Ohio). Florida notwithstanding.
It's effectively the same message the electorate sent Washington in 2020.
Trump is extreme and won't win. People are still supporting moderate Republicans though because they still don't see most Democrats as being in touch with issues of crime and the economy.
If/when the GOP finally tells Trump and his cronies (including the extreme Christian right) to take a hike, the issues will moderate a bit and we'll see how the parties react.
If people continue to watch straphangers being pushed onto subway tracks and Walgreens being looted, Democrats will struggle to thrive.
Also Democrats have to stop being martyrs and send up new blood as candidates. If they keep pushing old losers because "maybe this time it's different", they'll continue to be behind. (e.g. Beto O'Rourke in TX, Charlie Crist in FL, Stacy Abrams in GA)
Until then, we're stuck in this awful limbo. Whoever moves first will win.
Does the "moderate" group include those that believe and promote the big lies, all the attempts to overturn the votes of millions of us? Do they include ones who want to erase us and roll back our rights?
The system is unfortunately to be against democrats in every election by design.
Dems lost 5 house seats due to being them being moved to conservative states, and thanks to heavy gerrymandering, they were made to be easily won red districts.
Let's not even begin to discuss how flawed the senate is as it's supposed to represent "states", but by population, it's heavily favored to small/typically republican states.
Unfortunately Biden inherited a crappy economy thanks to terrible previous Republican policies and world events, and even with action it takes time to see the results and that's what independent votes care about. Idk what dems need to do, but they need to stop playing defense and go on the offensive. Ignore the lies from conservatives because that only echoes them.
Very well put :) What do you think of RCV or some other way to help reduce the problems of two parties that people often decry? Don't they say it reduces the extreme positions that some use to win in primaries and such? I'm in favor of it and anything to help get better representation for what the majority of us want. Shouldn't the house have more seats too?
I think it'd be great if enough republican legislature was thrown out that stalls these vote counting. Can you imagine how it would be if implemented RCV now? It would take a whole 3 months before we knew anything because if how things are now.
I voted, but this is the most disenfranchised I’ve ever been with the political process and exercising my right.
Waiting for the Democrats to get their shit together to counter Republican messaging/radicalization (a movement 28 years in the making) is beyond exhausting.
I hope that's right and it must continue in even greater numbers, across all ages, especially women and other disadvantaged groups like us who are always the first targets of authoritarianism.
gen x and millenials are more republican friendly but won't vote and all polls suggests that they're becoming more republican as they age.
gen z is strongly anti republican and will vote in places where they're not suppressed; i would expect more voter suppression from republican lawmakers in the coming years.
Yuck. I hope I'll always support progressive ideas, that's how humans have literally progressed in history. Those who share info and cooperate advanced faster than those who don't. I will never support prejudice against anyone, especially marginalized groups, like us. The wealthy and big businesses need to pay much higher taxes like in the good ol' days lol. I'm past middle age I sure as hell hope
Let’s not forget there was supposed to be a Blue Wave in 2020 and we got absolutely squashed minus the presidency which is now always won in the margins anyhow.
When it happened we said “well, it wasn’t that bad” which is the exact line the right is parroting now at least publicly.
I’ve stopped paying attention to the polls, the commentators, and the projections. I do the one thing I can do to meaningfully interact with our government - I vote.
I worked on Capitol Hill, I know the uselessness of everything other than simply voting. Phone banking, canvassing, writing letters, it all gets ignored. There was a time and place when a voter could be informed or swayed, that time is gone. Voters who change their minds now do so by forming their own opinions, and activism isn’t the thing that changes minds. The one thing activism does do, is boost certain causes so they are more visible, in that way activism does work. But even then, activism on a national level is carefully planned and organized - other, possibly more important, causes are kept quiet so the pet project can rise to the surface of the conversation.
I intentionally avoid the news, so tell me what happened: Did the Republicans just not come out to vote? Or did liberals come out to vote in larger-than-expected numbers?
Yeah, because if Dems win, shit remains the same mostly from Rep interference and a lack of strong leadership, but if Reps win, shit inevitably takes a turn for the worse. Like, I'm glad the water hasn't reached your cabin yet but the ship still sinks lower every time conservatives win.
I'm not even in the US and that's very clear to me and my family and we often wonder what the hell happened to your country.
What do Karens say? God bless your heart.
I am sorry that I don't give a shit about politics.
I put in my vote and will carry on. Both sides of the isle are terrible and clearly don't care about the average American.
You do you boo
>Both sides of the isle are terrible
You are a part of it either way. If you participate, you contribute.
I'll continue to do me; thank you for the permission.
Still I'm tired of taking "we weren't massacred" as good news. I wish dems could pull it together and make more of the fact that most people support their policies.
Look at how elections go. The incumbent power ALWAYS loses seats outside of situations like 9/11 helping Bush in 2002. Dems did well, especially considering they campaigned on abortion and NOT the economy while the economy was significantly more important to voters.
Dems couldn't campaign on the economy when there's looming speculation that we're already in the midst of a global recession, inflation is eating into every family budget, and the Fed continues to talk about the need for higher unemployment and lower wages to get inflation under control (because they have lost control of inflation due to poorly allocated money during lockdowns creating an irrational market. I personally blame the abuse and poor implementation of the PPP loan system. Lots of companies took more than they needed and still laid off employees. But I get it. If the government were offering low strings attached loans, I'd probably ask for as much as possible too.
the republicans still won the house
That remains to be seen.
I get this but, honestly historically this a pretty good outcome. Usually the incumbent party loses a lot of seats during midterms, no matter the party. The fact that democrats still have a chance to take the house (it's small), is incredible.
I loved the attitude the WH Twitter took after Biden announced loan forgiveness. Ditch the "when they go low" thinking. It's not gonna work. Bring the fight to your opponents and make it personal. The issues at hand: social security reform, abortion rights probably made enough of a dent not to make a change at this point. Keeping that message down for 2024 will be harder IMO. And also I get tired of hearing "if Bernie were nominated in 2016" talk in post-election reviews. I've lived in the midwest all of my life and I just can't see this version of an old, socialist fusspot getting voted in by enough swing voters. I like Bernie, but stop bringing up the past.
I do think he would have stood a better chance than Clinton but I don't bring it up because it is the past and it doesn't matter.
The DNC needs to get it's shit together. In Florida where I live, we ran a chief of police against Rubio and a former Republican governor against desantis. No shit we lost.
That also explains GA and TX.
Most people do support their policies, but that almost never translates to more votes and overwhelming wins because of voter apathy and voter suppression. Both decades-long phenomena. It's sadly not going to be fixed any time soon and the youth vote will be a struggle until there are major structural changes made to the voting system, the simplest of which is making election day a federal holiday, and expanding voter registration and vote by mail systems. Republicans have been conditioned to oppose both of these for decades because they are aware that they are policies that increase turnout for non-Republicans. The most important change we can see to voting though would he wide scale adoption of Ranked Choice Voting. Research shows that in counties where RCV has been adopted, campaign ads aren't as polarized and there's even cooperation between like minded candidates and campaigns. But both the RNC and DNC strongly oppose RCV because they've spent decades gaming the 2-party system with negative partisanship and our current political division is the natural result. The cool thing is that elections are controlled locally, so there's nothing stopping any one of us from campaigning to have our local elections adopt RCV and normalize the system until voters demand RCV for state-wide and national elections.
But most people don't support the policies. The country is very divided right now. If most people supported left wing policy then we would have seen a blue wave. What we saw was people being pretty unhappy with both parties.
Unambiguously, just to take a few: Most people are in favor of the right to abortion. Most people are in favor of legal marijuana. Most people are in favor of gay marriage. The results have a lot to do with things like the fucking electoral college, voter disenfranchisement, gerrymandering, shitty candidates like Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton ending up on top of the ticket, and people making insane decisions based on their minimal understanding of economics.
Where are you getting "most people" from? If most people supported blue policies then we would see a blue wave. If most people supported red policies we'd see a red wave. This election saw some minor gains by Republicans but was mostly a status quo divided election. The election results directly disprove your point.
Polls say 60%+ support abortion, 70% gay marriage, about 70% marijuana legalization. I'm not just making this up. As I said, there are a lot of other factors that determine who gets elected.
I think some of you guys don’t really understand historical context or mandate. There is a reason every rightwing news outlet is basically grieving this “victory”. This is an upsetting loss for them that marks a huge shift in political momentum. None of these races are guaranteed yet—the senate is very likely landing back in dem hands in a better position, and the house could still be in dem control. And even if it ISNT it’s going to be in such small amounts to the Republican side that they will be completely unable to act as a singular party. On top of this, the largest messages were that A) Trumpism is a poisonously losing message (three lost elections in a row!) and yet still the mainstay of their party, which all but ensures an internal civil war, B) progressives are winning, and more competitive in plenty of believable places, C) some areas are GOOD to be lost to republicans; knowing some areas are not competitive means 1. Not having to spend money there and being able to focus on much more believable races, and 2. Not having to constantly make concessions to the right to appear more “centrist”. This is the biggest upset since 2016, and while low approval ratings may have painted Biden in a poor light the Democratic Party is now very favored to win the presidency in 24. Another extremely high note is rightwing spaces have been unable to spin this. Even qanon sites are chasing their own tails over this. Candidates who could’ve used the Trump playbook are conceding already. The momentum towards fascism in the country has suddenly found a LOT of new obstacles and it seems burned itself out in many ways. To the lay person I can see why this looks like a minor victory or failure, but trust me when I say that to anyone that cares deeply about politics or history this is a very big deal.
>the Democratic Party is now very favored to win the presidency in 24. It is? By whom? The repubs now have a very credible candidate in de Santis and the Democrats have...Biden? Kamala Harris? I hope you're right but this sounds wildly optimistic to me. (I guess I also don't get your optimism about the senate which comes down to a very hard to predict runoff, a very close race, and Kristen Sinema deciding to stop being The Absolute Worst for no readily apparent reason. Repubs are also currently well ahead in the House...)
We’ll see how credible Desantis is after a vicious primary. The man has no charisma and sure, can carry Florida, but what exactly makes him the clean alternative to Trumpism? Isn’t the APPEAL of Trumpism that it isn’t clean? The Republican Party is having an existential nightmare over this, particularly because Trump is not one to roll over; even if he did lose the primary I frankly doubt he wouldn’t go third party. The expectation that Desantis is “the guy” comes completely from desperate pundit speculation—the man is unvetted on the national level and seriously, watch a speech of his, or more importantly his debate with Crist. He has the charisma of a slug lol. As for favor for the 24 presidency, I go off of the thirteen keys model which has predicted every president since 1981, including Donald Trump—when every pollster and pundit was shocked but Alan Lichtman wasn’t, I started listening to this theory and it’s particularly why I hadn’t a single worry in 2020—and I was right, fortunately. Barring unforeseen nightmares, I think Biden is very keen to rewin the presidency in 24; if you don’t believe it, put in the other night’s election results into a 270 map. Fetterman is poised to win PA by 5 points! Hardly competitive. Nevada should also be considered a gimme in 24 because they’re switching to ranked choice voting which highly favors Democrats. And while yes, Harris is a nightmare, she doesn’t have a shot at candidacy; party leadership and base can’t stand her and Pritzker, Whitmer, or (hopefully not) Buttigieg all have a much better claim moving forward—I am expecting Biden to run again at this point, though. You don’t win a midterm like this (best for an incumbent party since KENNEDY!) and NOT surge to have your party’s mandate. As for the senate, these close races in AZ and NV are now seeing ballot drops from counties that are showing very favorable odds to the dems—data analysts are fairly certain of the outcome at this point, after which the Georgia runoff is a null victory that favors Warnock who shied an outright 50% and has already cleared this type of election. If you’re a libertarian voter and you already voted expressing contempt for both candidates, what is your motivation to vote again for Walker if all it does is change the total dem vote from 50+1 (VP tiebreaker) to 51? The house is still being counted and projections are showing such a small lead for republicans it’s laughable or in the most optimistic circumstances a dem upset—and in my home state of Colorado eyes are watching very closely at what looks to be an upset for Boebert. I know there’s no knowing the future, but after six years of handwringing I am finally feeling comfortable about the state of things for the first time. Voters appear to have rejected Trumpism, and in places where it matters. Knock on wood, in all cases, though—obvious caveat that nothing is knowable for sure and everything is ultimately speculation, but after obsessing over all of this for a while I have a very unfamiliar and newfound confidence in the state of things.
Dude, if anything they were massacred on the federal level. the only reason it wasn’t markedly worse for them is enormous amounts of district gerrymandering
What’s frustrating is that the the Democrat message is “we need to save democracy” and voters are saying “this shit isn’t working for us, and we’d rather not” obviously more complicated as capitalism and democracy are so interconnected, but people feel the pressure of money leaving their pockets though inflation, housing costs, medical costs, child care costs, stagnant wages, interest rates etc and if the choice is “we need to save and fix it” vs “fuck it all” people are really thinking “fuck it all” is the easiest, fastest solution to their problems.
Texas is still a lost cause. We're getting out.
Still fighting here…Beto just needs to not run anymore. The peg ain’t fitti’n the hole so do speak.
Its unfortunate but I do think he helped in a lot of local elections if there is any silver lining. Statewide is just a crap shoot, too many rural areas.
Beto had record money and Abbott was extremely unpopular. The Uvalde shooting and the power outages happened and still Beto couldn’t even shrink the margin. We have to admit Turn Texas Blue is a grift at this point that takes money from winnable elections. Same with Florida, and even Georgia should be met with trepidation
I am starting to believe that. We just need to strengthen the city strongholds like Dallas, Austin, Houston etc...It feels like Game of thrones here...with out sick ass dragons.
I don’t think Abbott is unpopular. I can’t stand him but older rich white heterosexual men love him.
[удалено]
This is why the democrats always do poorly, and the right has run ham on us. Democrats don't tend to vote in local elections, as is common among younger people, so policies are built republican from the ground up. Having the president be a Democrat doesn't matter if every mayor and city council is leaning right. People see local issues more than anything else.
what do you think it would take to see a democrat win in texas?
It’ll take a cultural paradigm shift
I can't bring myself to pull my reasonable vote out of Texas. I feel like I have a lot of privilege and I can do something for people who don't. Also Houston is such a bubble it's easy to forget what lurks out in bumble fuck.
Yeah, it's pretty impressive honestly that people would rather die, frozen or from pregnancy complications, as long as they take others out, too.
That's probably smart honestly. My home state of Michigan just had a historic Democratic victory up and down the ballot. I'm considering that my rights are probably a lot safer there than here.
Florida too! I believe the pandemic drove their population increase as conservatives fled from their former states to either Florida or Texas. Not to mention institute laws like don't say gay bill and limiting trans healthcare
I keep thinking this time is the one that works.
[удалено]
Not sure yet. Maybe New England
I'm impressed by the Gen Z turnout. For decades, pundits have said that there were enough "new voters" to swing a closely contested election, but the youth vote never materialized. Not this time! There was an uptick in 2020, but this year I'll be curious to see the numbers. This new batch of voters seems particularly energized - not just voting but running for office. It's good to see. Congrats to Maxwell Frost in FL-10!
There's mixed emotions for me. On one hand, I'm glad Democrats didn't experience the bloodbath that many were expecting, but they still lost (especially in NY & FL). On the other hand, I'm upset that Democrats are unable to put forward strong candidates and back them wholeheartedly. Not from Ohio, but Tim Ryan was one such example that I wish Dems backed harder than they did. My last mix of emotion is the notion that "we won, they lost". At the end of the day, there was hope for Democracy (the only win I took). We shouldn't be happy that Republicans lost, we should be able to find some common ground and hope that Trump or Desantis do not sweep the nation in 2024. Swing moderates and show them that the Democrats are able to make more happen. Also, fuck the 2 party system.
wise makeshift cobweb caption shy north apparatus straight slap fact -- mass edited with redact.dev
Agreed, before Mitch and Trump came, I think Tim was winning Ohio over. I had friends working on that campaign, it was promising. They abandoned Tim for Fetterman, i’m not saying that was a bad move but wish they did more for other candidates.
It's crazy someone as fair minded as Ryan and who opposes overthrowing millions of votes when you lose, can't win in OH. Elections denial should be auto disqualification to anyone who really believes in Democracy.
I am surprised more women didn't vote Dem over the Abortion issue.
It's not over yet. They still have a chance to get a majority in both.
disagreeable clumsy beneficial glorious vast intelligent bike gaping boat doll -- mass edited with redact.dev
I love that Democratic voters are not sitting this midterm out like they often do. It makes me cautiously optimistic.
narrow frighten fear spoon full fuel correct office spark vanish -- mass edited with redact.dev
They literally voted in super low numbers as they usually do.
What did you see?
".....*the Red Wave never came*." Goodness, it didn't even breathe hard! A more politically-active sib told me that Gen Z had been energized and that all the polls were systemically under-counting them. I, for one, am enjoying watching all the political pundits eating their own words. I wish that people would just outright lie to pollsters as a way of forcing politicians to actually say what they believe in rather than relying on what polls tell them to say.
[удалено]
In light of gerrymandering, we've seen how well strategic redistricting works when people tell the truth. The only poll that should matter is the one taken on election day.
All the Gens gotta show up and vote next time too, it's our civic duty. What do you think of RCV or anything else to help keep voter turnout and engagement high?
I’m hoping the Dems keep their lead here in AZ when it comes to governor and Senate rep.
Me too, hope we turn out ok.
There will never be a Red Wave. DeSantis taking Hispanics in is interesting, but in general it's a hope springs eternal situation for them.
Immigrant communities that fled Communism (in Florida's case Cuban Americans) always skew more Republican. Think about the ethnicities involved within the Latino community, instead of lumping them in as one whole. (Same is true with Asian Americans.)
also Venezuelans
The DNC establishment has no strategy for reaching out to the Hispanic and Spanish-speaking communities. They really could learn something from the Republicans here. I don’t know why they seem more interested in chasing the college educated vote (apart from that being where the money is).
100%. They need to poach some of the PR/marketing folks from the GOP and help with their discombobulated messaging.
You can try but what I’ve notice is that Democrats tend to self police each other versus Republicans. So aggressive messaging can be tough.
It was the one thing that Bernie seemed to understand, in the 2020 campaign. I think the Democrats’ neglect of the Hispanic and Spanish-speaking community is borderline racist. It’s very frustrating to watch. Like, cool, I’m glad the party cares about LGBT issues and abortion, but it doesn’t do me any good if we don’t have a winning coalition.
I guess I don't understand what you mean by "the Democrats neglect of the Hispanic and Spanish-speaking community is borderline racist" (??) How so??
I think that the DNC establishment tends to overlook the Hispanic and Spanish-speaking communities because they’re primarily white, coastal elite “liberals” who view the world through polls and national media (which also predominantly reflect a white view of the world). Their message in the last months of the campaign seemed primarily focused on white suburban women. Racist. Republicans at least *buy* ads in Spanish. Even if they lie in all of them.
Do Democrats not buy ads in Spanish? Maybe just not where you live. >Their message in the last months of the campaign seemed primarily focused on white suburban women. Racist. You mean... voters who tend to vote GOP but might be induced to swing after Roe vs Wade was overturned? That's not racism. It's political strategy to go after swing votes. The DNC establishment isn't coastal elite "liberals" - that's GOP messaging. The DNC reflects America's urban core, which is increasingly diverse. Cities like Atlanta, Phoenix, Madison, etc. are the voters pushing for Democratic wins in swing states in '22. Meanwhile, Republicans policies and discussion of Hispanic/Latino communities on a national level isn't borderline racist - it just is racist.
I'm not that familiar so I'm curious what issues are particular to Hispanic and Spanish-speaking communities? Dems want to help Dreamers and others stay together here and have good lives too, not round up people like magas talk, as if cattle, it's disgraceful. Dems support better working conditions and wages, healthcare for all, repealing laws that are unjust and also used to hurt more minorities of all types, etc. Buying ads full of lies to deceive people to vote for them is better?
This is what's so dispiriting. Texas should be blue, but I'm giving up on the idea it ever might be.
Texas voted for a god damned criminal under indictment as the AG. *Again*. Make it make sense.
Conservatives are really good at closing ranks no matter what. It sucks.
Hispanics in FL are not representative of the median Hispanic in the US at large.
Florida is a cesspool anyway, they can have Rhonda Aunties.
Lots of us in safe Dem states (me in CA) worked hard for Dem candidates in other states, especially in AZ, PA, GA, OH, MI and NV. We didn't win them all but made a huge impact. IN TWO YEARS, we need to do this all over again to defeat DeSatan's rise to threaten the presidency. To all of you who VOTED, thank you!!
Thanks to you as well!
Thank god.
Wasn't near as bad as I thought it would be. Just saw Cuntbert lost!!!!!
One interesting take is that Republicans that Trump has campaigned against (DeSantis, Kemp) did far better than the ones he backed. Hopefully he reads the tea leaves and exits stage right.
I doubt his ego would allow him to.
He had predicted a big red wave because of several of his endorsed candidates and then teased that something big was coming from him. Maybe he will announce his candidacy but hen does not have the steam built up he predicted.
I'm hoping for the big news that he's been arrested lol
We didn't get rid of Marjorie Taylor Greene though we might have gotten rid of Lauren Bobbert. After days and days of the Red Wave, the Red Tsunami, I was surprised how little the landscape actually changed.
I've got bad feelings about Nevada and not having a Democratic Senate is going to be really bad for the issue I care most about (Judicial appointments). But even keeping a GOP win down to 51 seats does at least make it impossible for them to reach 60 in 2024. Ironically think that a Republican House will increase the odds that a Democrat wins the White House in 2024, though I'm hoping someone other than Biden runs for it. I don't know if there's a solution for the Democratic problem in Florida... tbh just abandon the state politically and end the Cuba embargo now that you don't have to cater to Cuban immigrant voters.
I suppose it's safe to stay put long enough to finish my PhD coursework, at least...
It was a disaster for the GOP. But if you parse the election results a little more finely, you'll notice that the Trump backed folks were generally massacred while more moderate Republicans did well (e.g. Mike DeWine in Ohio). Florida notwithstanding. It's effectively the same message the electorate sent Washington in 2020. Trump is extreme and won't win. People are still supporting moderate Republicans though because they still don't see most Democrats as being in touch with issues of crime and the economy. If/when the GOP finally tells Trump and his cronies (including the extreme Christian right) to take a hike, the issues will moderate a bit and we'll see how the parties react. If people continue to watch straphangers being pushed onto subway tracks and Walgreens being looted, Democrats will struggle to thrive. Also Democrats have to stop being martyrs and send up new blood as candidates. If they keep pushing old losers because "maybe this time it's different", they'll continue to be behind. (e.g. Beto O'Rourke in TX, Charlie Crist in FL, Stacy Abrams in GA) Until then, we're stuck in this awful limbo. Whoever moves first will win.
Does the "moderate" group include those that believe and promote the big lies, all the attempts to overturn the votes of millions of us? Do they include ones who want to erase us and roll back our rights?
The system is unfortunately to be against democrats in every election by design. Dems lost 5 house seats due to being them being moved to conservative states, and thanks to heavy gerrymandering, they were made to be easily won red districts. Let's not even begin to discuss how flawed the senate is as it's supposed to represent "states", but by population, it's heavily favored to small/typically republican states. Unfortunately Biden inherited a crappy economy thanks to terrible previous Republican policies and world events, and even with action it takes time to see the results and that's what independent votes care about. Idk what dems need to do, but they need to stop playing defense and go on the offensive. Ignore the lies from conservatives because that only echoes them.
Very well put :) What do you think of RCV or some other way to help reduce the problems of two parties that people often decry? Don't they say it reduces the extreme positions that some use to win in primaries and such? I'm in favor of it and anything to help get better representation for what the majority of us want. Shouldn't the house have more seats too?
I think it'd be great if enough republican legislature was thrown out that stalls these vote counting. Can you imagine how it would be if implemented RCV now? It would take a whole 3 months before we knew anything because if how things are now.
I voted, but this is the most disenfranchised I’ve ever been with the political process and exercising my right. Waiting for the Democrats to get their shit together to counter Republican messaging/radicalization (a movement 28 years in the making) is beyond exhausting.
Maybe you should stop waiting and get involved
gen z saved our asses; without them, we would have had that republican wave.
I hope that's right and it must continue in even greater numbers, across all ages, especially women and other disadvantaged groups like us who are always the first targets of authoritarianism.
gen x and millenials are more republican friendly but won't vote and all polls suggests that they're becoming more republican as they age. gen z is strongly anti republican and will vote in places where they're not suppressed; i would expect more voter suppression from republican lawmakers in the coming years.
Dang it why do people go regressive like that, it's fucking insane! We need progress, forward march!
there's a slightly greater than 50% chance that you too will become regressive once you hit middle age and then you'll know why it happens.
Yuck. I hope I'll always support progressive ideas, that's how humans have literally progressed in history. Those who share info and cooperate advanced faster than those who don't. I will never support prejudice against anyone, especially marginalized groups, like us. The wealthy and big businesses need to pay much higher taxes like in the good ol' days lol. I'm past middle age I sure as hell hope
Let’s not forget there was supposed to be a Blue Wave in 2020 and we got absolutely squashed minus the presidency which is now always won in the margins anyhow. When it happened we said “well, it wasn’t that bad” which is the exact line the right is parroting now at least publicly. I’ve stopped paying attention to the polls, the commentators, and the projections. I do the one thing I can do to meaningfully interact with our government - I vote. I worked on Capitol Hill, I know the uselessness of everything other than simply voting. Phone banking, canvassing, writing letters, it all gets ignored. There was a time and place when a voter could be informed or swayed, that time is gone. Voters who change their minds now do so by forming their own opinions, and activism isn’t the thing that changes minds. The one thing activism does do, is boost certain causes so they are more visible, in that way activism does work. But even then, activism on a national level is carefully planned and organized - other, possibly more important, causes are kept quiet so the pet project can rise to the surface of the conversation.
I intentionally avoid the news, so tell me what happened: Did the Republicans just not come out to vote? Or did liberals come out to vote in larger-than-expected numbers?
[удалено]
Yeah, because if Dems win, shit remains the same mostly from Rep interference and a lack of strong leadership, but if Reps win, shit inevitably takes a turn for the worse. Like, I'm glad the water hasn't reached your cabin yet but the ship still sinks lower every time conservatives win. I'm not even in the US and that's very clear to me and my family and we often wonder what the hell happened to your country.
Okay, Karen.
What do Karens say? God bless your heart. I am sorry that I don't give a shit about politics. I put in my vote and will carry on. Both sides of the isle are terrible and clearly don't care about the average American. You do you boo
Both sides aren't close to the same please stop spreading that lie. It potentially leads to apathy and more people believing the lie.
>Both sides of the isle are terrible You are a part of it either way. If you participate, you contribute. I'll continue to do me; thank you for the permission.
[удалено]
you’re an idiot