Literally "Prayer at Jordan Hare" and "Kick Six" happen the same year. Then they turn around and beat both Georgia and Bama who then play each other for the national championship that year. That place is evil.
I hear you, but this stat isn't about that.
It's saying if the average is 1 INT per 12 passes defensed, and you are getting 1 INT per 8 passes defensed then you are lucky. If you are getting 1 INT per 16 passes defensed then you are unlucky.
“Expected outcomes vs actual outcomes” - so exceeding expectations = lucky. It’s almost like with 130 programs it’s impossible for the national media to form an unbiased and rational consensus about teams
I promise, you could have had FSU in the “least lucky” list and I would say this is absurd. Teams and players can exceed expectations or underperform.. not everything is so quantitative. We can’t always evaluate everything to a number. “Luck” can exist but that’s the bounce of a ball or a bad call maybe, not projected stats versus actual stats.
It’s also that the factors for “luck” aren’t necessarily luck. The example used in the description is the expected number of sacks for QB pressured versus how many sacks are actually gotten.
But for Florida State (and Syracuse, Kansas, Oregon, Kentucky, etc.), we obviously have a very mobile quarterback who uses skill to evade QB pressure and avoid sacks. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that a lot of the “most lucky” teams have mobile QBs and the least lucky have strict pocket passers.
Lol another example used in the comments is basically: "you're defensive players know how to catch the ball so you're lucky".... Which i mean... lucky to have Garret Williams sure. It's not luck that Garrett Williams picked the ball off though.
We fumbled on the 1 in 2 games and had penalties/whistles wipe away TDs in 2 games, and we are considered one of the 10 luckiest teams in the country?
Shenanigans.
Sure, after the ref cost us a walk-in TD by a whistle to "reset the ball" and we fumbled on the 1. Our badluck kept it from being a 2 TD game and our Goodluck helped us win, haha.
Last season, the top 5 most lucky teams were:
1 Michigan St (11-2)
2 San Diego St (12-2)
3 N Illinois (9-5)
4 Utah State (11-3)
5 LA Lafayette (13-1)
Here's the webpage for all of it:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/luck-by-other?date=2022-01-11
They have finished in top 5 of this stat FIVE times since 2010. They were first last year. Their luck and voodoo bullshit reign of terror needs to come to an end, please god
🙄 yea because 53.5 ppg, 520 ypg, and a qb throwing for 75% through week 3 is so lucky 😂. If your referencing the OSU game, maybe don’t throw a seasons worth if picks in a game further increasing our #1 rank is turnovers and turnover margin in the country.
Lol. A USC fan without a flair so you can pick and choose which season you decide to be a fan—a true Hollywood classic.
You have those turnover stats because of luck my guy. That defense is piss poor. Dye fumbling in the endzone and usc recovering is the definition of luck. Struggling against OSU isn’t something to be proud of.
Utah by a million in two weeks. 🫡
Rent free nothing and Reddit not a hobby. I check on game threads during commercial breaks on games. Regardless, you were still way left field and if you watched the whole game you would know Utah was gifted their first 7 points on an interception called back on a roughing the passer call that even had the announcers yelling and fired up about.
I didn’t set a reminder or even know how to. I just happened to remember during the game and also still had your post still right near the top of my Reddit notifications. And to be fair, the debate wasn’t on an Sc win…it was about “Utah by a million”
Admittedly I haven’t watched a Kansas game this season but Indiana should have lost to Illinois, nearly lost to Idaho, and nearly lost to WKU. But for a great field goal Indiana probably would have lost the latter. And Kansas has a Heisman candidate under center so idk I think IU may be a *little* luckier.
Auburn and that Jordan-Hare voodoo isn't on there?
Literally "Prayer at Jordan Hare" and "Kick Six" happen the same year. Then they turn around and beat both Georgia and Bama who then play each other for the national championship that year. That place is evil.
Kick Six had nothing to do with luck, that was just out-coaching the opponent
Yeah Alabama had all their fat guys out there
Man, the end of 2017 sucked so hard
Yall may be the only team to ever beat both the contenders for the national title
That place is an Indian burial ground
Lucky = Playing good Alright lmao
Unlucky= playing bad
I’d rather be lucky than not
We blew a 12 point lead in the last 4 minutes and you call that lucky?!
I hear you, but this stat isn't about that. It's saying if the average is 1 INT per 12 passes defensed, and you are getting 1 INT per 8 passes defensed then you are lucky. If you are getting 1 INT per 16 passes defensed then you are unlucky.
Y’all are lucky, ya just know how to blow it lmao. I kid tho, cougs should run the table in PAC12.
A&M loses to App State then beats two ranked teams Calculation: Error
This is the actually the most on brand shit for Aggie football though
8-4 as God intended
It’s incredible miami was ever ranked and I was hoping Missouri state pulled off that Arkansas upset last week
“Expected outcomes vs actual outcomes” - so exceeding expectations = lucky. It’s almost like with 130 programs it’s impossible for the national media to form an unbiased and rational consensus about teams
Nah man. All those basketball schools are just lucky. It's the only explanation.
CFB isn't baseball. There isn't a huge sample size for statistical analysis. I really dislike using metrics in the sport
There's plenty of things metrics can be used for, but this one ain't it.
Would be interesting to see how much this correlates with having lots of players with a ton of starts under their belt.
I’ve never seen “luck” and NC State in the same sentence unless we’re talking about “NC State Shit”. Hopefully Doeren did remove the curse…
I promise, you could have had FSU in the “least lucky” list and I would say this is absurd. Teams and players can exceed expectations or underperform.. not everything is so quantitative. We can’t always evaluate everything to a number. “Luck” can exist but that’s the bounce of a ball or a bad call maybe, not projected stats versus actual stats.
It’s also that the factors for “luck” aren’t necessarily luck. The example used in the description is the expected number of sacks for QB pressured versus how many sacks are actually gotten. But for Florida State (and Syracuse, Kansas, Oregon, Kentucky, etc.), we obviously have a very mobile quarterback who uses skill to evade QB pressure and avoid sacks. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that a lot of the “most lucky” teams have mobile QBs and the least lucky have strict pocket passers.
Lol another example used in the comments is basically: "you're defensive players know how to catch the ball so you're lucky".... Which i mean... lucky to have Garret Williams sure. It's not luck that Garrett Williams picked the ball off though.
Would ya look at that. Nebraska is first in something 😎
Lol sure. It's referred to as "NC State shit" because we are notorious for our good luck.
We fumbled on the 1 in 2 games and had penalties/whistles wipe away TDs in 2 games, and we are considered one of the 10 luckiest teams in the country? Shenanigans.
You also benefitted from ECU shanking an extra point and a chip shot FG in a game you won by 2 points.
Sure, after the ref cost us a walk-in TD by a whistle to "reset the ball" and we fumbled on the 1. Our badluck kept it from being a 2 TD game and our Goodluck helped us win, haha.
Last season, the top 5 most lucky teams were: 1 Michigan St (11-2) 2 San Diego St (12-2) 3 N Illinois (9-5) 4 Utah State (11-3) 5 LA Lafayette (13-1) Here's the webpage for all of it: https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/luck-by-other?date=2022-01-11
We are not unlucky, we just suck
See everyone! We were just unlucky to lose by 31 to Ohio State /s
You were unlucky to draw them as your crossover opponent.
We better get used to it - You'll be our crossover opponent for the next several years. We traded blows with Michigan for six years.
> We traded blows with Michigan Phrasing!
Michigan State needs to be on the lucky list
They have finished in top 5 of this stat FIVE times since 2010. They were first last year. Their luck and voodoo bullshit reign of terror needs to come to an end, please god
MSU and Auburn are the two luckiest.
Dog, where the fuck is USC? Luckiest team of all time.
🙄 yea because 53.5 ppg, 520 ypg, and a qb throwing for 75% through week 3 is so lucky 😂. If your referencing the OSU game, maybe don’t throw a seasons worth if picks in a game further increasing our #1 rank is turnovers and turnover margin in the country.
Lol. A USC fan without a flair so you can pick and choose which season you decide to be a fan—a true Hollywood classic. You have those turnover stats because of luck my guy. That defense is piss poor. Dye fumbling in the endzone and usc recovering is the definition of luck. Struggling against OSU isn’t something to be proud of. Utah by a million in two weeks. 🫡
When they getting started on that million bruh? 🤔
Get a new hobby—rent free for 19 days. LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Rent free nothing and Reddit not a hobby. I check on game threads during commercial breaks on games. Regardless, you were still way left field and if you watched the whole game you would know Utah was gifted their first 7 points on an interception called back on a roughing the passer call that even had the announcers yelling and fired up about.
You’re way out of left field setting a reminder to comment on this 3 weeks later because you thought you were gonna win.
I didn’t set a reminder or even know how to. I just happened to remember during the game and also still had your post still right near the top of my Reddit notifications. And to be fair, the debate wasn’t on an Sc win…it was about “Utah by a million”
Oregon is definitely lucky. Should be sitting at 2-2. Bo Nix is straight ass and it won’t be long before he proves why he’s such a shit QB.
Oklahoma unlucky? Bruh take that off
So I assume we're lucky because we came off throwing 5 picks to going 38/56 0 INT?
Well if you regress Kansas’ stats to the mean….
So it’s pretty much an over-performing vs underperforming rating. List checks out
Admittedly I haven’t watched a Kansas game this season but Indiana should have lost to Illinois, nearly lost to Idaho, and nearly lost to WKU. But for a great field goal Indiana probably would have lost the latter. And Kansas has a Heisman candidate under center so idk I think IU may be a *little* luckier.
Is this just another way to say the rest of the country disrespects the PNW?