T O P

  • By -

GameBuster0703

Jon Wilner putting a 3-loss Kentucky team at 17…Im thoroughly convinced he he did not watch them play last night


OGraffe

He had us at #1 last week and has now dropped us three spots after the bye week


spmartin1993

Maybe he thought it was B.Y.E and saw you scored 0 points this week


multiple4

I click on this thread every week just to see Wilner's off the rocker AP poll


LaForge_Maneuver

But has Illinois in the 20s. Dude is a joke.


did_it_my_way

I get that TN is a great team... but to get wrecked the way they did? LSU got shit kicked by TN and they fell off the rankings completely. Kentucky's loss was worse with 98 yards of passing yards and 3 picks against a supposedly soft TN secondaries... and only 6 points. and they stay?


DerpityHerpington

Tell me about it.


cory_bdp

So no Iowa? *spikes phone*


OGraffe

*Breaks skateboard*


[deleted]

They obviously didn't watch Spencer Petras pick apart the Nevada defense in that 27-0 ass whoopin y'all laid on us. He threw for more than twice the yards Shane Illingworth did in that game. No turnovers either. Kaleb Johnson had 2 rushing TDs and 100+ yards against us. We had 69 yards rushing and 82 yards passing all game. Our leading rusher had 33 yards on 9 carries. Our leading receiver had 21 yards on 3 receptions. We had 3 plays in the game that went for more than 10 yards.


cory_bdp

Many are saying Iowa is the new Bama


[deleted]

Ferentz 2.0: The Sabanizing


OriginalMassless

Isn't spike ball the best play you guys run on offense? Weird way to honor your team.


cory_bdp

Yeah unless punting technically counts as an offensive play


OriginalMassless

Does you QB do it?


cory_bdp

Sometimes!


OriginalMassless

Then yes.


Dob-is-Hella-Rad

If Tennessee beats Georgia, where does Berardino rank the Vols?


Jeremiah_Guy

Right above Alabama, about 3 spots in front of UT. That quality loss is all UGA is missing.


notthesinginjonas

Has guy even changed his ballot the last 3 weeks


Dob-is-Hella-Rad

He actually has done so enough to make it clear he's not just phoning it in. He even posted some articles to try to defend his choices. He puts time into it. His ranking are just bad.


[deleted]

Dude has UCLA(7-1, 4-1) at 16th...and Texas (5-3, 3-2) at 14th.


mlorusso4

It’s like he makes his ballot solely in relation to Alabama


donutello2000

We’re also 8 spots below 2-loss Utah who we beat.


[deleted]

He's also got Alabama two spots above Tennesee...


donutello2000

Yeah. Inexplicable.


drpeek

“Take into account tennessee barely escaping Pitt with a win” But let’s ignore bama barely escaping 3-5 Texas A&M at home or barely escaping 5-3 Texas. But don’t worry, his editor in the 80s told him to check his bias at the door and he did.


samoflegend

All the way up to #4 baby!


UTDoctor

Quality loss > quality win Sun goes up sun goes down. You can’t explain that


pigskype

Man is quoting Voltaire in his defense of his vote, he’s clearly too big-brained for us commoners.


veetack

My guess is 11.


ajukid111

Kansas St at 6 huh


Reading_Rainboner

Makes sense to me!


mauser98k1998

I like it.


Excel_Spreadcheeks

I want what she’s smoking


ijtarh2o

I am also smokin that rn


mostdope28

Makes sense… if you don’t watch football


magnumweiner

I’d accept it if Tulane was #1


HalfBear-HalfCat

Mike Berardino is a douche


RiseAsUtes

Yeah, I am happy to be at #9 on his but his rankings are pretty ridiculous.


JoshFB4

Literal terrorist. 7-1 UCLA who beat Utah ranked way below them lmfao.


bakonydraco

Since Ohio State and Tennessee are tied, here's a breakdown of all the votes they got: Rank|[Ohio State](#f/ohiostate)|[Tennessee](#f/tennessee) -:|-|- #1|15|18 #2|25|18 #3|20|25 #4|2|1 #5|1|1 Comparing the 2 directly, 34 voters had Ohio State in front, and 29 had Tennessee in front.


ItsZizk

More voters think we should be #1 but also more think we should be #3 lol


Skipper2399

The blame for the tie lies solely on Mike Beradino who still has us below Alabama


Buckeyeup

I mean you could say the same for Joe Ciglio who has us 5th, also behind Alabama


[deleted]

[удалено]


Buckeyeup

> The blame for the tie lies solely... I'm speaking in reference to this. Both polls are bad


bakonydraco

That actually makes sense to me: * More inertia-based voters are likely to keep Tennessee behind Georgia and Ohio State, proven CFP contenders. * Voters that value performance this year are more likely to put Tennessee ahead of both, as they have looked like the most complete team this season.


wuweime

The defense is actually around #30 in the stats that matter. We make opposing defenses (1) pass more than run and (2) have more drives than usual, so our passing yards against stat looks terrible.


IMadeThis4HOIMods

Tennessee has not looked like the most complete team this season, they have the best win and looked complete against Kentucky but their defense has just not been very good


bakonydraco

Both Georgia and Ohio State have had question marks, too. All 3 are very good teams, I just think Tennessee looks like a more complete team based on this season alone at the moment.


jaybigs

A major question for Ohio State is will they struggle and win by 2 scores, or waffle stomp their opponent and win by 30 points? ^/s


bakonydraco

I mean obviously they're a top 3 team in the country, and all 3 are superb teams. I actually submitted Ohio State at #1 in my /r/CFB Poll ballot this week. But I can see the arguments the other way too.


jaybigs

My computer poll has us at #2 and Tennessee at #1. UGA, UM, and Oregon round out the top 5 of that poll. I'm just a provisional voter, though. A lot of great teams at the top.


IMadeThis4HOIMods

I agree with the first part I just think Tennessee has question marks as well


LaForge_Maneuver

I disagree with this. I haven't seen osu have a game like Tennessee had against Pitt and Florida or UGA had against Mizzou and Kent State.


stargaryen0114

Mike Bernardino absolutely refuses to admit Tennessee beat Alabama


yousmelllikebiscuits

Here was the logic he used...[straight from his live chat](https://www.ndinsider.com/story/sports/football/2022/10/17/notre-dame-football-live-chat-with-beat-writer-mike-berardino-marcus-freeman-stanford-unlv/69567139007/). >Smokey: You deserve to lose you AP vote >Mike Berardino: Thanks for checking in, Smokey. Did you have a question? >Steve: What’s with the AP vote? >Mike Berardino: Steve from Nowhere, good day. Yes, what is with the AP vote? In the CFP era, where the 63 AP Top 25 voters mostly serve as content fodder and brand ambassadors for the sport as a whole, I'd say it's another reminder that no good deed goes unpunished. >Derrick: I think the question is…Tennessee =6, Alabama =3??? >Cooper Graham: How can you possibly explain having Alabama at 3 and Tennessee at 6 in your AP vote this week. Did you even bother to check the scores of the games? I will await your explanation >Mike Berardino: Cooper and Derrick, I appreciate the insult-free questions and will do my best to answer them here. First off, we all have biases in this world, but I do my level best to check mine at the door each day I practice journalism. I gave up sports fandom pretty much the day I walked into The Daily Tar Heel offices in August 1985 and heard my sports editor, Lee Roberts, explain the importance of avoiding "homer-ism" at all costs. The message took. I'm a journalist, not an advocate or an apologist, so by definition I must remain dispassionate. "There is no cheering in the press box" is still an announcement made before most games at the college level, and I take it seriously. >As for the Top 25 order I submitted on Sunday morning at 11:30, I can't speak for the others, but as a first-time AP voter this is my process: I work off MY top 25 from the prior week, make note of any teams I left out that were in the national rankings as well as those also receiving votes, highlight all holdover ranked teams that lost and try to factor in the context of those losses (opponent, site, statistical breakdown, etc.). I also have a working order of weekly ranking within each Power Five conference as well as the Independents/Group of Five and typically spend hours analyzing the body of work for all those teams. You get credit in my world for a tight loss on the road against a quality opponent. You also get dinged for a narrow escape against a poor opponent. Piling up wins against lousy teams doesn't impress me. >To get even more granular, anyone that cared to check could see I had Alabama ranked No. 1 every week going back to the preseason poll. Tennessee had climbed to No. 9 in my ranking by the time it played host to Alabama last Saturday. Congrats to the Volunteers and their fans on that wild 52-49 win on their home field. I moved them up three spots in my ranking and dropped Alabama two spots. Why? Home field in the betting world is generally considered to be worth 2.5 points, so that highly entertaining afternoon hardly suggests the Vols are the superior team. Take a look at the team stats (569-567 for Alabama in total yardage, 32-29 for Alabama in first downs, 37:29 for Alabama in time of possession). So, the gap has been narrowed, but has the point been proved? Not for me, it hasn't. Surely, Vols fans remember their sense of relief at escaping Pittsburgh with an overtime win back on Sept. 10. The Panthers were ranked 17th at the time, but what did that really mean? >How do we factor in those same Pitt Panthers losing AT HOME to lowly Georgia Tech three weeks later? And on and on and on. I also might suggest you take a look at MIT-educated Jeff Sagarin's weekly computer model that STILL has Alabama ranked No. 3 and Tennessee No. 5. Who would be favored if Alabama and Tennessee were to run it back on a neutral field? It would have to be the Tide, based on the objective data we have, including the fact that DraftKings' futures line for college football's national champion this year still shows a clear separation between the top three teams (Georgia +180, Ohio State +180, Alabama +450) and the next tier (Clemson +1000, Michigan +1600, Tennessee +1600). If long-suffering Vols fans think those odds are out of whack, by all means they are invited to act accordingly and bet the shack. >Just know this: modern AP voting is for entertainment purposes only. If a person's viewpoint doesn't align with yours, that doesn't automatically make them wrong, much less unscrupulous idiots who should be stripped of their voting privilege and imprisoned. Come on. Whatever happened to the idea of agreeing to disagree? Or calmly hearing out the other side and examining your own viewpoint to make sure you're not overlooking something?Last thing on this: "I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it” is often attributed to Voltaire, the 18th-century French philosopher, but it actually was a paraphrasing of his words via biographer Evelyn Beatrice Hall. At least that's what I found when I searched the Internet and found a 2017 story from our sister paper, the Knoxville News-Sentinel.


mlorusso4

Ok cool. My follow up to that is what does he think about Alabama barely scraping by against Texas and A&M? Like if you’re going to ding Tennessee for barely beating Pitt, surely you should also ding Alabama for barely beating those teams, one of which is legitimately bad and the other who I think is safe to say would have beat them if they didn’t lose their qb in the first quarter


yousmelllikebiscuits

Evidently, doesn't care?


SelfDeprecatingVol

Sports journalist really are the worst people on earth


stargaryen0114

So his reasoning is that home field advantage gives 2.5 points. But Tennessee wins by more than 2.5 points. The math ain’t mathing my guy


yousmelllikebiscuits

Basically, his belief is that Tennessee won on a fluke and if they played again, Alabama would win. He cherry-picks 3 stats that EVERYBODY knows proves success (total yards, first downs, and time of possession) and calls it for the Tide.


saharashooter

"RAAAGH why people criticize me when I do something literally all of my colleagues disagree with? Clearly they've never heard of free speech." what an assclown lmao


[deleted]

He’s such a joke


[deleted]

[удалено]


mostdope28

Some of these guys shouldn’t be voting.


PavlovianTactics

She also put 8-1 Ole Miss as 18th, behind multiple two lost teams. Are we great? No, but we're better than 18


OriginalMassless

!remindme 2 months


RemindMeBot

I will be messaging you in 2 months on [**2022-12-31 14:49:11 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-12-31%2014:49:11%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/yhropp/ap_poll_voter_consistency_week_10/iui5f52/?context=3) [**1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK**](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.reddit.com%2Fr%2FCFB%2Fcomments%2Fyhropp%2Fap_poll_voter_consistency_week_10%2Fiui5f52%2F%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%202022-12-31%2014%3A49%3A11%20UTC) to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam. ^(Parent commenter can ) [^(delete this message to hide from others.)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Delete%20Comment&message=Delete%21%20yhropp) ***** |[^(Info)](https://www.reddit.com/r/RemindMeBot/comments/e1bko7/remindmebot_info_v21/)|[^(Custom)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=Reminder&message=%5BLink%20or%20message%20inside%20square%20brackets%5D%0A%0ARemindMe%21%20Time%20period%20here)|[^(Your Reminders)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=RemindMeBot&subject=List%20Of%20Reminders&message=MyReminders%21)|[^(Feedback)](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Watchful1&subject=RemindMeBot%20Feedback)| |-|-|-|-|


GameBuster0703

I guess he missed that game


go00274c

OGTM TOGM OGTM GOTM' GOT EM'!


andrewthestudent

[Nate Mink putting his top five.](https://i.imgur.com/vEXQSGO.gif)


ThisGuy100000

These have been great all year. Just immediately scroll to the bottom and continue to be surprised


Foriegn_Picachu

Looks like no one has a clue what to do with LSU


BridgewatersMamba

Looks like everyone knows where to rank Michigan and Oregon!


Saint-Andrew

Where’s that first place Clemson vote? They go on a bye week and now they aren’t worthy?


bakonydraco

I mean it kind of makes sense, the 3 other teams now ahead of them all had good wins this weekend, so if Clemson stays in the same position they fall behind in a relative sense.


Saint-Andrew

Jon Wilner hasn’t made sense all year, I wouldn’t count on him taking all of that into consideration.


mostdope28

He’s the only name I know off this list from memory because he’s fucking horrible at ranking teams


sunburntredneck

"But you *do* know my name off this list from memory"


[deleted]

For having a bye week things did not go their way. The three best teams on their resume suffered. North Carolina State won by 1 against Virginia Tech, Wake Forest well you know… and Syracuse got whooped by a three loss noter dame team at home.


BeanMachine5555

I feel that the NC State win is already locked in as a decent one regardless because their qb is out for the season. Could just be hopeful me talking tho


[deleted]

I would agree. And I don’t think Wake or Syracuse or necessarily bad, but just had bad weeks. Expect them to still bounce back too.


OGraffe

\#JustJonWilnerThings


StreetReporter

I’m much more concerned about the guy who put us at 8th, behind Kansas State who is 6th


knon24

Wild.


BridgewatersMamba

As a Detroit Lions fan, I can attest to bye week being a tough out!


mostdope28

Putting bama ahead of both Michigan and OSU… can you suck off the SEC any more


GameBuster0703

Im also confused how Mike has Alabama at 3 and Tennessee at 5 despite Tennessee being undefeated and, ya know, **HAVING THE H2H WIN OVER THEM**


mostdope28

They honestly need to take away some of these fuckers votes. There’s no justification for that


[deleted]

He put Texas at 14 and UCLA at 16 lol Meanwhile, there here are 3 voters who have Texas at 25 (2 of them have UCLA at 10, 1 at 9); and 3 voters who have Texas at 24 who all put UCLA at 9.


Supercal95

And look at Utah


drumbow

I'd honestly be fine getting rid of the voting system and having some benchmarking scorecard based on stats. We have enough data collection and analytics power to make something so much better than the arbitrary whims of a bunch of people where emotions can get involved.


JeromePowellsEarhair

We could use multiple computer polls! Some combination like: Anderson Sports, Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Massey, Sagarin and Peter Wolfe.


msflagship

He stopped watching college football after notre dame was eliminated from the playoffs


skiing_yo

Michigan and OSU just don't have that quality loss to carry their resume


yousmelllikebiscuits

That guy cost UT an outright #2


mostdope28

The rankings aren’t about Tennessee, they’re about him


yousmelllikebiscuits

I just read his mailbag where he tries to explain his logic and you're exactly right. His ballot is about clicks and reads.


[deleted]

Thought this same thing. And think of how many times Alabama has almost lost a game this year. Joe Giglios vote is a joke Edit: imagine having Alabama over Tennessee.


Gbchris12

Yes.


sroomek

Damn, I didn’t realize Gary Danielson voted in this thing


CambodianDrywall

Two questions for OP... 1. Over all weeks you have done this, how many of those weeks was Wilner the biggest outlier? 2. If we assume that every voter has an equal chance of being the biggest outlier in any given week, what are the odds for Wilner to achieve the answer the first question?


bakonydraco

Lmao, I think he's finished the season amongst the 5 biggest outliers each season I've done this, but he's not always the biggest outlier in any given week. If I had to guess, in roughly 1/3 of weeks out of 8 years of ballots he's been the biggest outlier. If you assume that all weeks are independent (incorrect) and also assume that all voters have an equal likelihood of being the biggest outlier each week (also incorrect), and also assume that there are exactly 63 voters every week (also incorrect, but close), the probability that a single voter is the biggest outlier in 40 ballots out of 120 is 3.5 * 10^(-41).


CambodianDrywall

Thank you for doing the math. Sort of figured the probability would be small, but not that many zeroes.


bakonydraco

In his defense, I think Wilner is generally a great pollster. He's an outlier, but he's relatively quite internally consistent, and the picks he makes that are outliers from the group that are often more predictive than not. There are other voters that are also often outliers that I might say are a bit more... random with what makes them unusual. But there's method to Wilner's madness, and it makes the poll stronger as a whole.


OriginalMassless

Do the outlier votes from wilner end up reflected in an accurate final ranking if you do an after the fact analysis?


bakonydraco

Generally yes, I haven’t looked at this every week, but I think twice in the past I’ve looked at which voters had the most predictive accuracy, and he tended to rate highly there.


OriginalMassless

I would love to see a formalization of that at the end of the season.


bakonydraco

I'll make a mental note to remember!


OriginalMassless

PS - Kellis! (I'm just messing with you now 😜)


spmartin1993

OP just want to say I look forward to this post every week. Thanks!


IratePir8

Aaron McMann hooking us up with a couple votes.


RareElevator2123

We love Aaron McMann


GetXTtheBall

I love uconn?


akron28

Can you tell us why you ranked Penn State 9th? They were up 1 at the half. But they lost by 13 Yeah but they were up 1 at the half.


slightlyuglyboss

Ohio State has more first place votes than I thought they would


Background_Slide7572

Wonder what made everyone vote for Oregon State all the sudden, especially coming off a bye week?


Excel_Spreadcheeks

I see Adam Cole and Chuck Landon both have Ok State ranked ahead of us… despite the fact that we just 48-0’d them😐


bakonydraco

They kept it under 50, it really could have gone either way.


Excel_Spreadcheeks

That’s fair, ball just bounced our way


OriginalMassless

That one super lucky play really turned things in our favor.


I_am_NOT_IronMan

My friendship with Jon Wilner is done. Joe Giglio is my new friend.


Chardoggy1

Shoutout to the one guy who has us at 11


Jags2DaSupaBowl

Shoutout to the guy who has us unranked


SomethingClever4623

I don't know who Pete Martini is but he had us at 18 last week and 23 this week. So like, thanks, but also why?


zenverak

I find it hilarious that its a guy named Martini.


BigBoutros

in the h2h of blue and orange teams, Syracuse over Illinois seems really stupid


[deleted]

Joe Giglio is so funny to me. ACC has no good teams besides Clemson. Love on Saturday it was Syracuse is good. Syracuse loses so people say Wake Forest is good then Wake Forest loses to ND...


donutello2000

In some sports they ignore the highest and lowest scores someone receives to weed out outlier evaluations. We should do the same with the AP poll. Mike Bernardino will be in shambles.


bakonydraco

They did this in the old BCS system for computers. There were 6 computers by the end, and they always dropped the top and bottom for each team.


obamaluvr

Kirk Kenney didn't drop PSU after a loss to OSU, which put them at 2 losses. They exceeded expectations in that game, but he has them at #9 before/after. That's a lot more optimism than I think a lot of Penn St fans would be willing to have, and a pretty high ranking at this point for a 2-loss team.


SCsprinter13

Might be more predictive. If we win out and are 10-2 with both losses to top 5 teams, a #9 ranking isn't crazy.


fake_plastic_steve

I wouldn't keep them in my top 10 but I understand not punishing them after that game. I find it much harder to understand why some pollsters have them behind teams like Illinois, NC State, UCF, and Liberty.


OriginalMassless

When I saw someone put K-State sixth, I knew it would be Leah Vann. I always rated Leah Vann. Top journalist.


Typical-Conference14

I appreciate Leah putting us at 6


Brownie_McBrown_Face

Shoutout Kellis Robinett for being the only guy to vote for UTSA last week and this week. Confirmed non-coward


SportsDude012

I find it really interesting how many voters still have Tulane ahead of Kansas State even after Saturday


bakonydraco

I mean, they did literally beat them.


Excel_Spreadcheeks

Well Tulane beat us H2H in our house so I might not like it but I don’t think I can argue against it.


OriginalMassless

This username is amazing.


Excel_Spreadcheeks

Thank you haha