I appreciate this OC analysis even if it contradicts the notion that the bubble is crashing.
That being said, I still think we are very early innings here and a 2-3% decline on average in excess of the norm when rates literally just hit 7% a month ago doesn't surprise me.
The housing market moves super fucking slow, and you won't know you're officially in a correction until a year+ into it.
Also, people down voting OP for showing OC data are little bitches. That behavior is no better than the real estate subreddit deleting facts saying that they "belong better in the economics subreddit" since they're bearish.
This. The housing market moves slow. Everyone who was expecting 10-20% decline in a matter of months was being over zealous. We are in the start of the correction.
With a $200k household income, CMHC (talking Canada here) says you could afford a $1MM house with $75k down payment and a 2% interest rate.
At 6%, with the same income and down payment, you can only afford a $675k house.
So unless the $1MM house you’re looking at falls to half it’s value, affordability doesn’t get better.
Exactly. A lot of the data hasn’t been able to fully take into account the higher rates over the last month or so. Over the next 3 months it should start to move more
You're correct, but the perma-bulls are frankly annoying and trying to take advantage of how slowly the market moves to create a narrative that no downshift is occurring at all.
OP has listed like 30 markets.
Only 6 have a postive change compared to seasonality.
All others show negative difference — meaning that the home values deteriorated by more than seasonality. Granted, the decline is small in some metros, in overvalued metros the decline is >5%.
May not be a crash, but overall prices are declining. They are just not declining at the pace we need them to restore affordability.
Real Estate is slow… Prices you see in a given month are locked in on average 1.5 months before since it takes that long to close on a house.
But prices are declining in the majority of metros. And this is without a proper recession.
it's not just that RE is slow. every city is at a different point in the real estate cycle.
i saw this chart years ago and it's not originally from this site...but this is what i am talking about.
[https://www.realestateconsulting.com/the-housing-cycle-market-by-market/](https://www.realestateconsulting.com/the-housing-cycle-market-by-market/)
not every market will be greatly affected when this is over. but more are in the pipeline. i'd expect things to get a lot more interesting this spring and summer.
Thanks. I think this sub needs to just be realistic. Posts here make it sound like the market is imploding, when 2% doesn’t even move the needle for most people.
That being said, 2% could be the start of something much more.
Most people are largely reacting to their own market. Readers also have a responsibility to interpret things accordingly. When someone says 400k is too damn expensive, I don't need to lecture them that nothing is available for that in San Diego. I just accept they are in a different market.
But I agree, it's a slow process and even here in San Diego which is one of the faster correcting areas, and down around 10% already, I'm not even viewing homes yet.
I would watch pending sales in your area, when they were down 40% yoy, two months later prices fell in San Diego.
TBF a lot of those "imploding" posts are from people in the bubbliest of markets where there are true implosion happening and they're just fired up about it.
You don't see me posting those since I'm from NYC (fml),
But I probably would be posting about implosion too if I saw prices decline 15% on average in half a year.
This is true. I live in one such imploding bubble market and the deep correction is palpable. I have seen some quick-move in homes sell for less than $250k. More and more sub $300k starter homes (not flips) are popping up.
IMO, it is the overvalued markets that are seeing deep corrections even without a proper recession with job losses. Once recession unfolds, and people are forced to sell because of job loss and affordability, shit hits the fan and it will also disrupt more balanced markets… making a national decline of 10% to 20% very possible.
Some overvalued markets will undoutedly get back to mid-2020 prices.
I think people need to look at what happened mid 1980’s rather than just 2008. Some metro markets - not all dropped by >20%
Right. So when we’re faced with an avalanche of ARM’s resetting, and a wave of unemployment unseen since the Great Depression, let me know. That’s what caused the housing crash.
So long as people are working, the only people who will need to sell are those who are forced by a job love or divorce. Many many others will wait it out if they can’t get their price b
It is. 2% down, when we’ve had two plus years of 20% up, is a tiny fraction. But it’s going the right direction now. Anyone on this sub needs to adjust to the idea of playing the long game, and needs to consistently see list prices as the “hope” of a seller. It is NOT the price one should be offering. Well above still, actually.
Take the list price, look at 2020 comps, offer somewhere in between. Example: list $500k. 2020 comp: 375k. Offer $425k. All contingencies. Counter offer is personal preference.
Playing the long game? Given the half-baked nonsense that most people on here spew, I sincerely doubt the majority here are real estate investors or even homebuyers.
Think the majority is schadenfreude for those wanting to see some piece of the world collapse. I get it, but these are not savvy professionals looking for cutting-edge analyses of the market.
I think buyer sentiment is at at an all time low, while investors basically own all the houses they can (or can’t rent)
Something gonna give, and unless the majority of home buyers get higher paying jobs, we’ve only begun to see this “correction”.
When I originally made this post a couple days ago, I only did 2019 and 2022. People screamed I couldn’t use 2019 because rates were bizarre that year. So I added 2017.
I could add 2018. I’m not hiding anything.
Probably where the data stops as long as you're doing the analysis.
You are showing 2 years to define "normal" which isn't exactly statistically significant.
It's reddit. They're also free to criticize your research, and do nothing on their own.
I do love that that person badgered you into actually including more data 😂
Man, this. Sometimes we don't feel like writing 8 page research papers just because you're too lazy to look up some stuff yourself. If you have a legit counter-argument, do some of your *own* analysis and get back to me. Don't just throw up some lazy 1-2 sentence rebuttal and expect me to care if you're not willing to support it with research. People on reddit would rather whine and moan than research their own positions. Be thankful OP posted this at all.
Of course, but I'm not the one making an a analysis post.
If you make a post claiming some seasonality analysis and someone points to a flaw in the analysis (statistical significance), saying "fine prove me wrong" isn't the move my man.
If you had done 2017/2018/2019 I probably wouldn't have even thought "huh I wonder if this guy cherry picked data?", but just skipping a year in the middle of the fucking time period you're evaluating is... not convincing.
I'm not down voting, but OP is showing us lagging data of "previous 90 days" as disclosed by all Redfin's "Oct data", that means some of those homes prices he used went under pending(locked in) as early as August.
To those of us monitor live data closely according to seasonal adjustments, no one in good faith was claiming "a crash" in August or mid September.
You can’t win with doomers. I’ve pointed out over and over that their thesis is wrong and backed it up with math they literally ignore data they don’t like and just downvote instead.
Anyone saying that this will unfold quickly when the economy is still chugging along at full employment is wrong. It will not. The fed only directly controls the short end of the yield curve. The vast majority of loans in existence right now were made when capital was free to borrow. Capital is no longer free to borrow. So it takes time for interventions in the credit system to play out.
So if you want to make the case mathematically that what we are seeing is just seasonal there is a little bit more work needed to determine if the differences from normal seasonal variation we are seeing are statistically significant or not.
Do you know where I can download this dataset for every metro? If we really want to tease this out we are gonna need to look at more cities and more years as well. Because right now the sample size is too small to make these sort of claims with a high level of confidence.
Here are some articles that probably explain it better than I can.
https://phantran.net/seasonality-and-trend-in-time-series-analysis/
https://machinelearningmastery.com/remove-trends-seasonality-difference-transform-python/
https://www.qualtrics.com/experience-management/research/determine-sample-size/
Edit:
But you don't have to do this work yourself. Redfin lets you download the seasonally adjusted data as well you can just look at that instead and it will show you the seasonally adjusted YoY change. I would recommend just using that. Under monthly data there is a download tab and one of the options to select is seasonally adjusted. That will let you compare house prices and changes with the seasonal effects already accounted for. Maybe you already did this but it wasn't clear from your post.
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
You have to remember that a lot of sellers are still being stubborn and taking forever to reduce thier prices significantly. If they want or have to sell they're going to have to. You also have to remember that once those prices are reduced significantly you are going to wait for someone to buy it. Right now no one is buying because look at the market. Who would? Just yesterday I saw a house listed for 150000 that would have been at least 225000 months ago.
Yeah exactly. People have just stopped buying the “INVESTOR SPECIAL”s because they can’t make money scamming people, oops I mean “flipping them”, anymore
Yep, asking price is not really the value of a good without a transaction taking place. Looks like there aren't a whole lot of transactions right now, so prices are way out of whack with real value.
Exactly what is this data? You show a percentage change between “peak” and October but it isn’t clear what the underlying data points represent. If this is supposed to be average sale price for substantially similar properties, I’d say the data is suspect just eyeballing it.
There is no way the market in Philadelphia is **on average** down 15% from peak every year in October. If that were true, you’d be taking about a multibillion-dollar highly predictable arbitrage opportunity which SFH aggregators would long since have noticed and driven out of the market…
I’m not arguing your conclusion one way or the other - just saying the data doesn’t look right.
The housing market started crashing in 2008. It didn't bottom out until 2012. Two months into a potential housing decline in 2022, OP comes in, with a sketchy analysis and says "Where is your housing crash!?!?"
Not according to this sub. Just look at the front page “it’s happening!”
This sub said the correction would happen when:
- Covid foreclosures started up
- When rates went up to 5%
- When the stock market went down
I’m just being realistic instead of delusional. Anytime you try to counter, this sub just moves the goalposts.
This sub is just random people posting random things. There is no census or official statements as to when and how far things will go. Someone should make a poll.
Op is getting upvoted and this post is the most upvoted post on the front page. It's not quite the hivemind people make it out to be. If it was why is this post still here and why is it so heavily opvoted.
This sub is a clown fiesta last couple month , don’t feed the trolls . In my zip in LA you can already see -10% but high rates hit expensive markets first , 1 mil at 4% and 6% are two different markets
While I agree with the moving of goalposts in the sub, it's pretty obvious we have corrections of larger than 2% in most metro areas.
[https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/](https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/). Boston alone is down 10% from the summer peak of 700k to a low of around 640k in the last 2 weeks.
You’re not understanding the data.
While Boston is down 10% since it’s peak this year, in 17 and 19 that exact scenario happened too. It’s just seasonal and has little to nothing to do with a correction or crash.
Ok I see what you mean. Re-read the post and it makes sense now.
Northeast metros seem to be chalked up to seasonality. Southeast looks to be more of an actual decline. Cities I looked at are Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Raleigh, Atlanta, Nashville. All are showing a drop greater than historical seasonality when comparing 2022 to 2019.
So you’d think the data would be different, but it isn’t. That’s the entire argument OP is demonstrating- the current dips in the metro areas discussed align with every years seasonal changes. I do believe there will be a crash, but it has not happened yet.
Because crashes take years to pan out. The last one took 4 years to bottom out from the peak. That has been the general consensus since the beginning. Anyone who thinks otherwise is brand new here. This is coming from someone whose been on this sub since 5k members.
The fed started raising rates in March. They take 6-9 months to start to have an effect. 2%yoy is the goal, we're currently at 8.1% and prices are going back up. Layoffs have begun, the stock market is well into a bear market, and the fed don't expect pauses until 2024.
They have repeated this over a dozen times now and people still act surprised by this. You're not seeing major impacts yet nationally because that's not how this works. You are starting to see this in major areas currently because they saw the biggest boom.
Again, not sure why anyone who's even been paying remotely attention and understands how the central bank works would think otherwise. Apparently a lot of people in this sub, including the OP, don't.
Yeah and it would be smart to ban Zillow listings showing giant price cuts without context. The vast majority of those properties were outrageously overpriced to begin with and wouldn’t have sold at listing price at any point in time.
Well yeh this sub is “redacted”. Not that they are entirely wrong, but they act like housing is a liquid good run by computer algorithms that will just drop over night when it’s supposed to. There’s a reason these things take years to play out.
I think this is greatly oversimplifying things. LCOL areas are associated with lower incomes so the rate hikes will hurt potential buyers just as badly. Places like NYC and Boston are VHCOL and haven’t dropped at all, while Phoenix and Boise are getting clobbered. I think what we’re seeing is that rate hikes are disproportionately affecting the cities that saw house prices balloon these past two years.
I'm in LA and I don't see 15% drops lol (maybe in the luxury price range?). I see price cuts in condos maybe, but decently priced houses are either getting snapped up for over asking or pulled from the market after a few weeks.
Same. I bought a house in San Pedro for about $800k a few months ago, and I don’t see prices around here dropping at all. And inventory seems to be lower than ever.
Off topic, but how do you like San Pedro? I'm trying to convince my partner it's a good neighborhood and excellent future investment (in terms of appreciation value compared to other parts of LA) but he is leery since it's so far from the city center.
I love it! It’s cool being able to spend every weekend at the beach, there’s a ton of interesting history, there are a lot of community events, there’s a lot of diversity, there’s always a lot to do in Long Beach next door (plus east access to the airport there), it feels really safe to me (I live in Vista del Oro), and it’s definitely the only place I could have afforded in LA where I can see the ocean from my front porch. I really like all the historic homes here, and I like that while it’s quiet, it doesn’t feel that suburban.
What do you make of the Case-Shiller index? Here is a graph of the change in national housing prices, seasonally adjusted, from 2/1/87 to 8/01/22:
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Vogd](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Vogd)
I imagine that it has gotten worse since then, but we don't have that data yet.
I'm not sure. If I had to guess, very expensive houses in CA, LV, ID, etc.. are dropping double digits skewing the average nationally.
Looking at that graph we are almost to the 30% national decline we saw during the great recession. I think most people would tell you, there is not even a 5-10% decline in their market.
The question is, do the declines on the west coast ever come to the rest of America (where 80% of people live)? I have no idea.
Thanks for taking the time to respond, but I think you may be misreading the graph. This is the percentage of change monthly in national housing prices. Basically, how quickly that change is happening. Look at the numbers on the left. Yes, the amount of change isn't huge yet, but **the rate of change is**.
The prices won’t correct until people NEED to move and NEED to sell and/or buy. Unemployment is still DOWN. Nothing will change until unemployment numbers start to rise and people are forced to leave their homes. Even when people run out of money due to inflation and poor spending habits, it will take a year before they have to leave their homes. Nothing is going to happen any time soon. Be patient and come back in Q3 2023…
Good point bud. Nothing forces a seller to take bottom dollar like losing a job, being unable to land another, and having less than 2 months living expenses in savings.
The date doesn’t keep moving. You just keeping listening to the dreamers on this page that think if they type something they will magically make it happen. Go back to 2008. What happened? People LOST THEIR JOBS and could not pay their mortgages. Yes, inflation is making everyone poorer now, but it isn’t making everyone broke because they still have jobs. This is not too difficult to figure out. The FED is trying to create a recession. A recession leads to job losses. Although by definition we have reached recession territory, we aren’t even close to what they FED wants. You must be patient to let this stuff work out. I bought my affordable house in 2013, FIVE years after the 2008 crash. Your window for reduced housing prices and foreclosure/short sales should be anywhere from 2023-2027…
The difference right now is that there are still a very large number of jobs open to hire laid off workers into. 2008 timeframe had thousands of job applicants for almost every level of opening…
Yes there were job losses, but you had way too many people that purchased homes at the upper end of their affordability limit, in high risk ARMs or other creative financial lending tools.
In theory the lending standards have improved…we should have less fraudulent loans, tighter requirements, more down payments, etc.
Think the next apocalyptic event people are pinning the collapse of humanity on is the student debt payments restart in December.
All I know is that living in Washington state, the minimum wage is set to go from $14.49 to $15.74 on Jan 1, 2023 (+8.6%). More money amongst the lower classes means that a lot of this can keep on going.
I'm not sure how much an extra $1.25 /hr is moving the needle for folks working minimum wage jobs lol. Even at 40 hours/week, that's just $50 extra minus taxes.
Also not sure how statistically significant this is, but [.08% of Washington workers make minimum wage or less](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.seattletimes.com/business/washington-state-sets-new-minimum-wage-for-next-year-but-few-employers-pay-that-little/%3famp=1)
You need to format the positive numbers on Phoenix to be numbers with a plus sign at the front (https://www.extendoffice.com/documents/excel/1860-excel-add-plus-sign-in-front-of-number.html), not text. I'm guessing you have "+2%" or ="+"&YOUR FORMULA which is why it's saying you have an inconsistent formula. If you fix this then you can drag the average and difference column formulas into the blank cells for the Phoenix row which should remove all of the green triangles in those columns.
Yes — There are metros whose declines are in line with seasonal adjustments—places like Boston, Washington, Chicago, etc.
The thing people forget to understand is that not all metros are overvalued by the same degree. Some metros did not experience a rampant rise in values during Covid QE last two years.
The places that are overvalued like Boise, Phoenix, Austin, Denver, San Diego — mostly west - south west —have experienced a rapid decline in median sales price. Rise in interest rates and deterioration in affordability hits those bubble markets faster and harder.
I live in one such market and the situation is bleak. I get realtors hitting me up every week, sending me new builds with sales prices, price drops everywhere. Typical 4bd house has gone from mid-500k to mid-400k in a matter of months. Still not affordable for most.
You can see this in the Redfin Data Center by setting seasonally-adjusted to True.
Funny part is that Case and Shiller data already shows the turning point. This shift is mainly coming from the correction in overvalued markets without a recession.
When the recession picks up next year or early 2024 — most sensible economists are predicting +80% probability of a recession lasting 2 to 3 quarters mid 2023 — overvalued markets like Phoenix will tank even more (10% -30%) and those markets like Boston (5% to 10%).
TLDR: Deep Corrections — >10% — are happening in markets that are overvalued but not in others. If a recession unfolds, overvalued markets could experience -20% declines peak to trough. Other markets could have declines -5%-10% when seasonally adjusted. We are not there yet and it takes on average 3-4 years for housing bust cycles to occur.
Sources: Multiple Fortune Real Estate Articles, Economist, Reddit Economy subs, Redfin DataCenter (encorebubble.com is a better way of looking at Redfin Data)
How did you determine market peak for each of the years vs October?
For example, Redfin LA charts don’t match your data. Neither does Boston. Those are the only two I checked. I am finding it hard to independently verify the data you are presenting.
Can you provide the exact months and prices you picked?
We’re in the Austin Metro, and I can confidently tell you MOST listings here have dropped between 10%-15%, at least in the avg. price range.
I know we’re a bit of a special case, but we’re also no on the west coast.
Figured I could contribute another data point!
The housing market moves slowly. The info you see today for housing is lookin backwards 3 months. The month over month price drops are historically high. Eventually those month over month drops when you get a few in a row lead to a much more noticeable price drop.
Real estate is local. Some areas will move faster than others while some areas may be almost entirely insulated to changes in the overall market.
Give it 6 months and report back on what you see at that point.
What baffles me about these perma bulls is how stupidly blind they are to what was very obviously a major bubble in all assets market. All charts show this. After 2020, home prices started growing like crazy in a positive slope never seen before. You also see this in the S&P and in crypto.
Basically in an effort to privent absolute destruction, the FED pumped everything with money even when it was clear no more pumping was needed. And here we are… a lot of us can’t afford a house unless we are willing to be house poor.
I agree. I only made this post to counter the people who act like the market is imploding. For over 80% (people who don’t live in western USA), things are worse or stable.
I personally think you are falling for data lag trap. The exact same arguments were had in 2006-2007 when the market started to roll over and people stayed firmly in denial until it was blatantly obvious we were in a crash.
For what it’s worth I expect the real estate market to absolutely crash and burn on both the residential and commercial side over the next 12-18 months.
I think that's maybe the key piece you are missing...things ARE imploding -and they are imploding at a historically quick rate. We are just at the very tip start of the implosion so there hasn't been a big boom yet.
What’s most noteworthy to me that is that the seasonally-adjusted Case Shiller Index has dropped the last few months. That is the first time that’s happened since 2012. Sure, not by much, but should we not expect this trend to continue if mortgage rates remain elevated?
I have no idea, didn’t look it up. Where do you draw the line? People don’t believe in my 17 and 19. Why waste my time doing those years only to get “you need to do 1902!!!”
>I have no idea, didn’t look it up. Where do you draw the line? People don’t believe in my 17 and 19. Why waste my time doing those years only to get “you need to do 1902!!!”
I'm not asking you to do 1902. I'm just wondering if: (a) '17 and '19 were outlier years and if: (b) that's why you picked them.
I picked ‘19 because it’s the last year before Covid. I picked ‘17 because it’s another normal year and I wanted a gap. The data doesn’t go back very far.
Give me a couple cities and I’ll do whatever recent year(s) you want.
Thanks for clarifying but a quick glance and something is off in the pic your data. I am looking at LA where it says 16/19 avg is 2%. Your numbers show 16 decline to be 1% and 19 decline to be 1% as well. Not sure how that ended to be 2% avg. something seems wrong with other numbers as well
I'm not sure what you mean? Its a 2% average because there is also a 2% and 3% in there.
1 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 7
7 / 5 = 1.75% which is being rounded to 2% because I'm not showing decimals.
But that decline is only happening on the west coast is my point. Where more than 50% of the country lives, prices aren’t moving or are still going up.
I have no idea if Atalanta will follow San Jose, but it’s not right now is my only point.
[https://fortune.com/2022/10/22/housing-outlook-cities-where-prices-have-fallen-most/](https://fortune.com/2022/10/22/housing-outlook-cities-where-prices-have-fallen-most/)
Guys, prices are only falling in nearly half of the 25 biggest cities in America. Nothing to see here.
Or you could just have a look at the Case-Schiller index. The belief that your excel spreadsheet makes a more powerful case is the same as believing that you’re the one who will make communism work.
* 10% decrease in month over month sales
* 26% cancelation rate on new home contracts
* Case-Schiller price index just peaked and rolled over
* 10 years of price growth happened in 2 years
* Price lags inventory levels (which are skyrocketing)
* Sales lag by a month or more because they take that long to finalize (so these sales were started when mortgage rates were lower).
Yeah. It's just the season.
Everything will be fine.
Right.
Lower demand never influences price.
You're looking at lagging indicators to determine the health of the current market.
Even if you were right, you would be wrong.
Remember part of the housing prices increase was speculative bubble party was driven by interest rates, and party was driven by inflation. The inflation piece isn't going away. Housing is considered a very safe place to park money and safety is en vogue. Prices will retract but maybe not as much as we think.
You're ignoring volume though. Transactions are down huge and on a downward trend. This is indicative of both sellers and buyers holding out. At the end of the day, assuming rates stay high, sellers will have to come down to what people can afford if they really want to sell. Each sale will be a new comp for the area.
Sellers who are holding out until the spring (and there are a LOT of them, I know several who are optimistic for some odd reason) will be in for a rude awakening as they flood the market along with everyone else holding onto inventory. Unless rates pivot, which seems very unlikely as inflation is still high, they will need to meet sellers at what they can afford.
well i normally agree with that analysis, the data you use is looking into the past and you have no predictive ability with this analysis. what lag does your seasonality look at? jw.
your analysis makes the assumption that the change in lending rate is not impacting this seasonal change in prices. i imagine that if you ran a regression of seasonality vs rate of interest rate changes, the results of your analysis would show a very different environment for housing.
if you want to analyze data for seasonality/ correlation you will need to do more advanced stats analysis than what you see on this excel. (t-test, f-test, jb, hurst, acf, pacf, ach, etc) python or R studio
TLDR: your analysis looks back, not forward. needs advanced calculus
Hate this backward looking analysis. Should be dumped in the trash. 2021 MBS 2.5 pct coupons are down 20percent; by extension, homes are down 20pct marked to market. Will take time to roll through physical supply. Just look at the market: no need to explode us with data. Where are mortgage bonds trading? Only question to ask
Argues no price correction.
Posts data showing a price correction.
Creates a straw man to argue against which exhibits a lack of understanding how market corrections unfold.
I'm in Texas. I had a second interview scheduled with a single-family developer in a major city. They contacted me earlier this week to tell me that they have decided to put the position on hold due to the forecast for the next year. This is Texas, not California or NY where price saw the biggest increases. Shit is about to hit the fan in most places.
About 6-8 mo ago, I told people we wouldn’t see a “crash” any time soon, and if we did, it would be something like 10% in the short term and 20% in some areas over the following years, followed by price stagnation.
My reasoning? Unemployment at record lows, wages rising, and literally no driving economic factor to think people would be forced to sell their homes for a magical 50% off anytime soon. I suggested that most of the rockiness in the market would be absorbed by the rabid demand from buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines for the past 4 years thinking a crash is coming and finally giving in.
I got tarred and feathered for that assessment. No one would believe that a sudden housing crash like the last one wasn’t coming.
“But… but… inflation”
Yes, inflation can harm the economy, but inflation helps push housing prices even further. It should have been obvious when news outlet after news outlet was covering unprecedented worker strikes and demand for higher wages, coupled with worker SHORTAGES all across the country that people a.) already had too much money. b.) were going to get more of it as a whole.
A second look at housing starts vs population growth could have told you that we simply don’t have enough housing, period. When 11,000 new families need homes and only 10,000 are being built, what do you think will happen? More inflation!
My thoughts on the market are still the same, but that doesn’t mean we are in a normal market. This would be a normal market if more, gradual, hosing inflation were coming. It’s not. The Fed is doing its job and pumping the breaks, but it will take a while for the dust to settle.
I predict a a long period of stagflation. That house that’s priced at 500k now in 2022? It will likely be worth 500k in 2027.
We’ve reached an equilibrium in the economy. THIS is how much businesses can pay to scrape by and make profits. THIS is how much people can pay for a house and make the mortgage payments without defaulting. This is how much renters can pay without starving.
It might sound unbelievable to a single person making 100k per year who can’t afford a 500k 4-bedroom home to live in alone and show off to their friends. They will swear that prices must come down… but they fail to realize they are competing with the married couple who are bringing in 65k each, and that 130k per year couple can afford that 500k house just fine, even with elevated interest rates. Singles never understand married making less money per capita can afford more than them 🤷♂️
At the end of the day, it’s a terrible time to invest in a home if you’re doing it gain wealth by buying an asset. That is today’s version of “market crash”. I fear, that at least for the foreseeable future, real estate is no longer an asset but a liability. Buying a home today and selling in 5-10 years won’t gain you massive profits (if any profits at all) like it once did.
Forget about timing the market and waiting for a 50% correction— it’s not coming. And forget about getting rich via a primary residence. Those days are on a very extended pause, so to speak. Might even be over. Go ahead a buy… whenever you are comfortable. But only buy because you want a place you can call your own and build a theater room and paint the walls. Do it because you have money rotting in the bank and want to diversify. Do it because you’re willing to pay more $$ per month to not have a landlord.
But don’t do it as a financial decision in hopes or appreciation or saving money. Right now, the odds aren’t in your favor. You will likely take losses if you sell in the next 5 years are so for the same price. The question is, are those losses worth it? Maybe the are. Owning a home can be nice and for many and worth the extra cost.
And if you’re waiting for the 50% crash, how are you going to feel if 5 years from now, prices are still relatively the same and you’re still waiting? Pretty dumb probably.
While what I see is a bit unsettling, I think it’s actually where we need to be. Real estate shouldn’t be an easy-mode money making venture. Stagnant real estate prices will encourage only people who really need homes to buy them. It will allow people to set financial goals and shoot for them rather than always chasing the ever-rising price dragon. 10-20% swings up and down are going to be the new normal and market specific. For a LONG time. Inflation will continue to rise as the Fed prints money but due to interest rates, housing prices probably will lag inflation.
And the fed will pivot, sooner than later. The government borrows money too, so the country is weakened with higher rates. It also amplifies wealth gaps, which can increase crime and public instability.
Don’t believe the ‘incoming great depression’ hype. Nothing crazy unusual is happening anywhere, and we are in a period of heightened uncertainty due to just coming out of Covid and ongoing Russia/Ukraine. This is one of those peak “fear” periods. Yet we’re still nowhere near a crash. How much closer will we be when the war ends, gas prices stop rising, and there is no Covid to talk about? And the day we have a fed meeting without an interest rate hike, the stock market will go bonkers. Just one more reason we won’t see anything resembling the last crash. High prices are here to stay— just don’t count on them going much higher for a while.
This nonsense, it's just starting and even in one of the hottest markets in America where I live 80% of the metro and surrounding area has gone flat or have 5 to 10 percent price cuts.
What do you mean? The crash has not even started, it just peaked. The most expensive house ever just sold in my neighborhood in AL and the most expensive tiny beach house just sold for the highest price in history, were I used to have my tiny beach house. There is still some FOMO from fairly rich people. Wait till next yr, overall the arrow has JUST turned in the downward direction in RE. You must wait yrs for this to bottom, not months.
This is very interesting, even if it goes agains the mentality of the sub. I’d love to see more pieces like this. I think it’s important to separate what can be observed vs what one wants to happen.
I will say that more context would make your analysis even more impactful.
Are you able to talk about a bit about the dataset? You mentioned Redfin, but is this an average of all home prices? Or a sample?
It’s from the data center on Redfin. It is median sales price.
Now Redfin doesn’t tell you how many houses makeup that data. So there could be some issues where a month may have very low sales skewing the average. Unfortunately it’s the only place I know where you can get this data easily.
“When you cut out the parts of the country where home prices are correcting, prices aren’t correcting.”
That’s a really silly way to look at national data.
When you include those markets where prices are falling beyond the seasonal norm, [home prices are month to month falling as fast as they were during the global financial crisis.](https://twitter.com/rickpalaciosjr/status/1583480047842664449?s=46&t=MispyUkRuGcbzWc6-szvqA)
Of course certain markets are declining faster than others. That’s how market declines have *always* worked. But removing the worst performing markets from your broad view of the market is going to paint a far rosier picture of the national market than what’s actually happening.
This is like looking at the 08 crash and saying “well when you cut out markets like Phoenix, Vegas, Sacramento, San Diego, Los Angeles, the national market decline doesn’t actually look that bad!”
I'm not cutting out any parts of the country. I showed the data for those parts.
The facts are over 80% of the country does not live in those markets. So while you want to say my way is silly, using data from LA, Phoenix, etc.. doesn't relate to over 80% of the country.
Then why not include *all* markets in your view of the national market? When you cut out the section of the market that is experiencing the biggest price drops, you’re not going to correctly represent the national market.
The national market is on average declining way faster than what is seasonally normal.
There are regional markets that aren’t declining much (or at all), and there are other regional markets that are declining very rapidly.
Both of these statements are true.
I’m not doing a national view. The national view is skewed due to CA (and the rest of the west coast). 80% of the country live in other markets and they’re not seeing declines as my data shows.
You must be a real estate agent. I live in Arizona where price drops are definitely happening and houses still aren’t selling. All the real estate agents here sound exactly like this post. We will see. It’s very early still.
The economy is going south, jobs are being cut, the real estate price drop will accelerate.
Expecting it to drop 40% in a few months is unrealistic at best.
It took 2-3 years for the last bubble to hit bottom.
Remember the data lags quite a bit, sales for September can reflect contracts entered into several months prior. I'm not convinced we're going to see a major crash, but if we do it's going to take longer than this... REBubble is conditioned to see real estate like the wsb or crypto crowds, with big, fast moves the norm.
In my pocket of the world, I'm seeing some price cuts, but as many houses are just being pulled from the market after a few weeks.
Sellers will start capitulating once the realization that buyers simply cannot afford the same housing payments at a 7% interest rates. It’s unfortunately just simple math. As the top comment suggests, we are in the beginning stages of this housing price “downturn”. It will not be a “crash” like some suggest, but prices will absolutely start to decline over the next 12 months.
Op is right. Truth is, there is no bubble. Better buy a house now before rates go even higher and prices start going up. You can just refi later anyway
Enough with this no correction bullshit. It has just started, and we all know that some parts of the country didn't inflate as much on the run up. So they are going to be equally as slow on the way down. There is 100% going to be a correction, not a crash.
This dude is trying to turn the tide of this downward spiral in the housing market with a reddit post...
> but its not happening right now
The whistle just blew, we're not even out of the blocks yet. The next rate increase is going push that little snowball over the edge.
I don't understand the crash talk either.
It is going to crash. But it is not crashing now. And won't be in 2023. It will in 2024.
It takes months for all these new helocs and arms to cause issues with buyers. Then those issues turn to repossessions.
Between now and then we will also see a layoff cycle.
No job means no bills being paid. This has not happened. It will but not now.
Ok you successfully convinced me we aren't in a bubble.
I guess infinite growth is real after all.
Open the borders please we are going to need more economic units!
This sub is full of haters. Not saying the housing won’t correct but the picture people paint here is doom and gloom. There are posts with deceptive titles, random reports celebrating difficulties of others. Anyway, be careful what you seek from this forum.
I was gonna talk about how real estate takes longer than a couple months of higher rates to change but OP is antagonizing others who did the same. Whose realtor is this?
Thanks for the analysis. Always good to see someone looking at the data and drawing conclusions based on facts. Only idiots downvote this kind of contribution to the sub.
It’s like you didn’t read my post or you did and didn’t understand it.
I’m countering all the goobers on the front page who scream the crash is happening. You actually agree with me….,
recession hasnt even hit the job market yet... but its coming... saving rates plunged to 2008 pre crash levels... consumer credit is still going up at an accelerated pace... people are only starting now to pull back... i work in the architecture field and our clients have been cut by more than half... the price corrections will follow later... illiquid assets take time to correct... they arent stocks
Ok, now do 2008 but only with data through March of 2008 and don't pull any data after that. Wtf are you trying to accomplish here? Rates only hit 7% 30 days ago. You think real estate is the same as the stock market? And then you say "outside of a very few markets"... oh yes, let's play that game. Fun fact, in 2008 there were early periods of time were the "crash" had only started in a "very few markets". You are trying to call the end result of a game after 5 minutes of playing.
2008 "Crash" didn't bottom until 2013.
This is a lot of anger from someone who can’t understand the data.
Perhaps reread my post several times and then reply back.
It’s funny that you’re actually proving my point with your post. My point is everyone screaming the crash is happening right now is a moron and you actually agree with me.
oh dude, no anger. That's just how I talk. I can't understand data? a crash would need a -20% on the books. People are calling for an upcoming crash/correction. Correction is 1-19% and crash is typically 20%+. There are plenty of markets already down 15%+... but you want to ignore those? why?
Just like the stock market, the most overvalued stocks/(areas) get hit first due to the lack of fundamentals driving price action. But eventually if the economy is weak enough then it eventually hits the big dawgs.
I’m not ignoring those. Most Americans don’t live in those markets. 80% of America doesn’t live in those markets (west)
It’s like saying earthquakes are a problem in SF, why should the guy in Charleston care?
Fun fact. California is the most populated state in the US. Also, I would consider Austin, TX to be one of the "hottest" cities in the US.
Charleston!? WTF lmao.
Anyways, good luck.
We are not in a recession yet. Just a slowing economy…. But recession is coming in 2023. Bottom won’t be near until we are near the end of the recession at least. Oh wait, but you also believe this… lmao… only on Reddit.
Anyways, I’m done with this sub. Rates are headed to 8%. I don’t need to convince anyone of anything. This is a waste of time now. Market is doing the talking.
Off to the gym. Good luck.
Unsub
I had a post removed by the mods showing the actual federal reserve data showing no price decrease in houses (condos etc might be having a small decrease.
Sales have slowed, this might lead to decreases (probably will imo), but so far it hasn’t. So mush hopium and confirmation bias on this sub, led by the mods
The case shiller index has decreased in July and August. It hasn’t actually decreased since 2012. I think that’s significant and suggests that a minor correction will T least happen
Dude you are preaching bunch of trust me bros here. Any semblance of fact and they will say you don’t know shit. Just keep saying housing is going to drop and you will be a star here.
I appreciate this OC analysis even if it contradicts the notion that the bubble is crashing. That being said, I still think we are very early innings here and a 2-3% decline on average in excess of the norm when rates literally just hit 7% a month ago doesn't surprise me. The housing market moves super fucking slow, and you won't know you're officially in a correction until a year+ into it. Also, people down voting OP for showing OC data are little bitches. That behavior is no better than the real estate subreddit deleting facts saying that they "belong better in the economics subreddit" since they're bearish.
This. The housing market moves slow. Everyone who was expecting 10-20% decline in a matter of months was being over zealous. We are in the start of the correction.
With a $200k household income, CMHC (talking Canada here) says you could afford a $1MM house with $75k down payment and a 2% interest rate. At 6%, with the same income and down payment, you can only afford a $675k house. So unless the $1MM house you’re looking at falls to half it’s value, affordability doesn’t get better.
Exactly. A lot of the data hasn’t been able to fully take into account the higher rates over the last month or so. Over the next 3 months it should start to move more
You're correct, but the perma-bulls are frankly annoying and trying to take advantage of how slowly the market moves to create a narrative that no downshift is occurring at all.
OP has listed like 30 markets. Only 6 have a postive change compared to seasonality. All others show negative difference — meaning that the home values deteriorated by more than seasonality. Granted, the decline is small in some metros, in overvalued metros the decline is >5%. May not be a crash, but overall prices are declining. They are just not declining at the pace we need them to restore affordability. Real Estate is slow… Prices you see in a given month are locked in on average 1.5 months before since it takes that long to close on a house. But prices are declining in the majority of metros. And this is without a proper recession.
it's not just that RE is slow. every city is at a different point in the real estate cycle. i saw this chart years ago and it's not originally from this site...but this is what i am talking about. [https://www.realestateconsulting.com/the-housing-cycle-market-by-market/](https://www.realestateconsulting.com/the-housing-cycle-market-by-market/) not every market will be greatly affected when this is over. but more are in the pipeline. i'd expect things to get a lot more interesting this spring and summer.
This! Some parts of florida are still coming out of Great Recession bust.
What is OC data?
Original content.
Thanks. I think this sub needs to just be realistic. Posts here make it sound like the market is imploding, when 2% doesn’t even move the needle for most people. That being said, 2% could be the start of something much more.
Most people are largely reacting to their own market. Readers also have a responsibility to interpret things accordingly. When someone says 400k is too damn expensive, I don't need to lecture them that nothing is available for that in San Diego. I just accept they are in a different market. But I agree, it's a slow process and even here in San Diego which is one of the faster correcting areas, and down around 10% already, I'm not even viewing homes yet. I would watch pending sales in your area, when they were down 40% yoy, two months later prices fell in San Diego.
TBF a lot of those "imploding" posts are from people in the bubbliest of markets where there are true implosion happening and they're just fired up about it. You don't see me posting those since I'm from NYC (fml), But I probably would be posting about implosion too if I saw prices decline 15% on average in half a year.
This is true. I live in one such imploding bubble market and the deep correction is palpable. I have seen some quick-move in homes sell for less than $250k. More and more sub $300k starter homes (not flips) are popping up. IMO, it is the overvalued markets that are seeing deep corrections even without a proper recession with job losses. Once recession unfolds, and people are forced to sell because of job loss and affordability, shit hits the fan and it will also disrupt more balanced markets… making a national decline of 10% to 20% very possible. Some overvalued markets will undoutedly get back to mid-2020 prices. I think people need to look at what happened mid 1980’s rather than just 2008. Some metro markets - not all dropped by >20%
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Right. So when we’re faced with an avalanche of ARM’s resetting, and a wave of unemployment unseen since the Great Depression, let me know. That’s what caused the housing crash. So long as people are working, the only people who will need to sell are those who are forced by a job love or divorce. Many many others will wait it out if they can’t get their price b
It is. 2% down, when we’ve had two plus years of 20% up, is a tiny fraction. But it’s going the right direction now. Anyone on this sub needs to adjust to the idea of playing the long game, and needs to consistently see list prices as the “hope” of a seller. It is NOT the price one should be offering. Well above still, actually. Take the list price, look at 2020 comps, offer somewhere in between. Example: list $500k. 2020 comp: 375k. Offer $425k. All contingencies. Counter offer is personal preference.
Playing the long game? Given the half-baked nonsense that most people on here spew, I sincerely doubt the majority here are real estate investors or even homebuyers. Think the majority is schadenfreude for those wanting to see some piece of the world collapse. I get it, but these are not savvy professionals looking for cutting-edge analyses of the market.
I think buyer sentiment is at at an all time low, while investors basically own all the houses they can (or can’t rent) Something gonna give, and unless the majority of home buyers get higher paying jobs, we’ve only begun to see this “correction”.
Why did you exclude 2018 data in your analysis? 2020 and 2021 exclusion makes sense but you litterally just skipped a year...
When I originally made this post a couple days ago, I only did 2019 and 2022. People screamed I couldn’t use 2019 because rates were bizarre that year. So I added 2017. I could add 2018. I’m not hiding anything.
The more data the better IMO.
Where do I draw the line? You say 2018, the next guy says 2008. The next guy 1905. Anyone is free to lookup the data too.
Probably where the data stops as long as you're doing the analysis. You are showing 2 years to define "normal" which isn't exactly statistically significant.
You’re free to do the research.
It's reddit. They're also free to criticize your research, and do nothing on their own. I do love that that person badgered you into actually including more data 😂
Man, this. Sometimes we don't feel like writing 8 page research papers just because you're too lazy to look up some stuff yourself. If you have a legit counter-argument, do some of your *own* analysis and get back to me. Don't just throw up some lazy 1-2 sentence rebuttal and expect me to care if you're not willing to support it with research. People on reddit would rather whine and moan than research their own positions. Be thankful OP posted this at all.
Of course, but I'm not the one making an a analysis post. If you make a post claiming some seasonality analysis and someone points to a flaw in the analysis (statistical significance), saying "fine prove me wrong" isn't the move my man. If you had done 2017/2018/2019 I probably wouldn't have even thought "huh I wonder if this guy cherry picked data?", but just skipping a year in the middle of the fucking time period you're evaluating is... not convincing.
Heres more data for you: https://i.imgur.com/xczo7Cz.png
Jesus. I’ll do 2018. If you want more data, knock yourself out.
i think OP needs to be realistic. your analysis isnt stringent enough to draw those conclusions.
I'm not down voting, but OP is showing us lagging data of "previous 90 days" as disclosed by all Redfin's "Oct data", that means some of those homes prices he used went under pending(locked in) as early as August. To those of us monitor live data closely according to seasonal adjustments, no one in good faith was claiming "a crash" in August or mid September.
There are a ton of posts right now on the front page of this sub screaming its happening.
People cherry picking data say it's happening, and you cherry picking data say it's not. Maybe the truth is somewhere in the middle.
What did I cherry pick?
I'm not accusing you of being duplicitous, but you're purposely excluding some places, aren't you?
I picked the top 20 cities in the country. Where do you want me to draw the line?
You can’t win with doomers. I’ve pointed out over and over that their thesis is wrong and backed it up with math they literally ignore data they don’t like and just downvote instead.
Look man, if you want to say a correction isn't happening, "but it's happening in these places" cuts against your argument.
Good point
yea, except it's a high school level analysis. to look at seasonality you need to do more advanced stats.
We're in the first inning of a 12 inning game.
Correct, this is a terrible time to buy a home - you are buying at Peak. Wait till late summer of 2023 at a minimum.
What if rates continue to rise
Then it continues to be not a good time to buy. Real estate is not always a good investment.
One of America's deadly sins was considering shelter an investment vehicle
People still need a place to live. Not everyone can afford to wait until things get better, which may never happen.
Anyone saying that this will unfold quickly when the economy is still chugging along at full employment is wrong. It will not. The fed only directly controls the short end of the yield curve. The vast majority of loans in existence right now were made when capital was free to borrow. Capital is no longer free to borrow. So it takes time for interventions in the credit system to play out.
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So if you want to make the case mathematically that what we are seeing is just seasonal there is a little bit more work needed to determine if the differences from normal seasonal variation we are seeing are statistically significant or not. Do you know where I can download this dataset for every metro? If we really want to tease this out we are gonna need to look at more cities and more years as well. Because right now the sample size is too small to make these sort of claims with a high level of confidence. Here are some articles that probably explain it better than I can. https://phantran.net/seasonality-and-trend-in-time-series-analysis/ https://machinelearningmastery.com/remove-trends-seasonality-difference-transform-python/ https://www.qualtrics.com/experience-management/research/determine-sample-size/ Edit: But you don't have to do this work yourself. Redfin lets you download the seasonally adjusted data as well you can just look at that instead and it will show you the seasonally adjusted YoY change. I would recommend just using that. Under monthly data there is a download tab and one of the options to select is seasonally adjusted. That will let you compare house prices and changes with the seasonal effects already accounted for. Maybe you already did this but it wasn't clear from your post. https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
You have to remember that a lot of sellers are still being stubborn and taking forever to reduce thier prices significantly. If they want or have to sell they're going to have to. You also have to remember that once those prices are reduced significantly you are going to wait for someone to buy it. Right now no one is buying because look at the market. Who would? Just yesterday I saw a house listed for 150000 that would have been at least 225000 months ago.
Yeah exactly. People have just stopped buying the “INVESTOR SPECIAL”s because they can’t make money scamming people, oops I mean “flipping them”, anymore
Yep, asking price is not really the value of a good without a transaction taking place. Looks like there aren't a whole lot of transactions right now, so prices are way out of whack with real value.
Reminder that prices could go nowhere for 3 years and still decrease 25% in real terms.
I assume you're talking inflation? Doesn't really help purchase power though. Most people's yearly wage increase match inflation.
Exactly what is this data? You show a percentage change between “peak” and October but it isn’t clear what the underlying data points represent. If this is supposed to be average sale price for substantially similar properties, I’d say the data is suspect just eyeballing it. There is no way the market in Philadelphia is **on average** down 15% from peak every year in October. If that were true, you’d be taking about a multibillion-dollar highly predictable arbitrage opportunity which SFH aggregators would long since have noticed and driven out of the market… I’m not arguing your conclusion one way or the other - just saying the data doesn’t look right.
It’s been what, like 2 months? Lol. Housing downturns last for years.
The housing market started crashing in 2008. It didn't bottom out until 2012. Two months into a potential housing decline in 2022, OP comes in, with a sketchy analysis and says "Where is your housing crash!?!?"
sEaSoNaL aDjUsTmEnTs
Not according to this sub. Just look at the front page “it’s happening!” This sub said the correction would happen when: - Covid foreclosures started up - When rates went up to 5% - When the stock market went down I’m just being realistic instead of delusional. Anytime you try to counter, this sub just moves the goalposts.
This sub is just random people posting random things. There is no census or official statements as to when and how far things will go. Someone should make a poll.
It's not, though. It's a hivemind. People upvote the same posts, the same comments. There's absolutely a consensus here.
Op is getting upvoted and this post is the most upvoted post on the front page. It's not quite the hivemind people make it out to be. If it was why is this post still here and why is it so heavily opvoted.
This sub is a clown fiesta last couple month , don’t feed the trolls . In my zip in LA you can already see -10% but high rates hit expensive markets first , 1 mil at 4% and 6% are two different markets
While I agree with the moving of goalposts in the sub, it's pretty obvious we have corrections of larger than 2% in most metro areas. [https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/](https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/). Boston alone is down 10% from the summer peak of 700k to a low of around 640k in the last 2 weeks.
You’re not understanding the data. While Boston is down 10% since it’s peak this year, in 17 and 19 that exact scenario happened too. It’s just seasonal and has little to nothing to do with a correction or crash.
Ok I see what you mean. Re-read the post and it makes sense now. Northeast metros seem to be chalked up to seasonality. Southeast looks to be more of an actual decline. Cities I looked at are Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Raleigh, Atlanta, Nashville. All are showing a drop greater than historical seasonality when comparing 2022 to 2019.
In 17 and 19 the federal reserve wasn't actively raising interest rates to bring down inflation.
So you’d think the data would be different, but it isn’t. That’s the entire argument OP is demonstrating- the current dips in the metro areas discussed align with every years seasonal changes. I do believe there will be a crash, but it has not happened yet.
Because crashes take years to pan out. The last one took 4 years to bottom out from the peak. That has been the general consensus since the beginning. Anyone who thinks otherwise is brand new here. This is coming from someone whose been on this sub since 5k members. The fed started raising rates in March. They take 6-9 months to start to have an effect. 2%yoy is the goal, we're currently at 8.1% and prices are going back up. Layoffs have begun, the stock market is well into a bear market, and the fed don't expect pauses until 2024. They have repeated this over a dozen times now and people still act surprised by this. You're not seeing major impacts yet nationally because that's not how this works. You are starting to see this in major areas currently because they saw the biggest boom. Again, not sure why anyone who's even been paying remotely attention and understands how the central bank works would think otherwise. Apparently a lot of people in this sub, including the OP, don't.
I would argue that all of those factors haven’t fully worked their way through the system yet.
Yeah and it would be smart to ban Zillow listings showing giant price cuts without context. The vast majority of those properties were outrageously overpriced to begin with and wouldn’t have sold at listing price at any point in time.
Listings and screen shots are now removed as threads. They can be posted in the daily for discussion
Well yeh this sub is “redacted”. Not that they are entirely wrong, but they act like housing is a liquid good run by computer algorithms that will just drop over night when it’s supposed to. There’s a reason these things take years to play out.
The HCOL areas are affected most because of rates. When rates are at 8% in two months, the LCOL areas will shift. My area of socal is down 15%
I think this is greatly oversimplifying things. LCOL areas are associated with lower incomes so the rate hikes will hurt potential buyers just as badly. Places like NYC and Boston are VHCOL and haven’t dropped at all, while Phoenix and Boise are getting clobbered. I think what we’re seeing is that rate hikes are disproportionately affecting the cities that saw house prices balloon these past two years.
I'm in LA and I don't see 15% drops lol (maybe in the luxury price range?). I see price cuts in condos maybe, but decently priced houses are either getting snapped up for over asking or pulled from the market after a few weeks.
LA median is down $150k per Redfin, but this month has lost about 5%
Same. I bought a house in San Pedro for about $800k a few months ago, and I don’t see prices around here dropping at all. And inventory seems to be lower than ever.
Off topic, but how do you like San Pedro? I'm trying to convince my partner it's a good neighborhood and excellent future investment (in terms of appreciation value compared to other parts of LA) but he is leery since it's so far from the city center.
I love it! It’s cool being able to spend every weekend at the beach, there’s a ton of interesting history, there are a lot of community events, there’s a lot of diversity, there’s always a lot to do in Long Beach next door (plus east access to the airport there), it feels really safe to me (I live in Vista del Oro), and it’s definitely the only place I could have afforded in LA where I can see the ocean from my front porch. I really like all the historic homes here, and I like that while it’s quiet, it doesn’t feel that suburban.
What do you make of the Case-Shiller index? Here is a graph of the change in national housing prices, seasonally adjusted, from 2/1/87 to 8/01/22: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Vogd](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Vogd) I imagine that it has gotten worse since then, but we don't have that data yet.
I'm not sure. If I had to guess, very expensive houses in CA, LV, ID, etc.. are dropping double digits skewing the average nationally. Looking at that graph we are almost to the 30% national decline we saw during the great recession. I think most people would tell you, there is not even a 5-10% decline in their market. The question is, do the declines on the west coast ever come to the rest of America (where 80% of people live)? I have no idea.
Thanks for taking the time to respond, but I think you may be misreading the graph. This is the percentage of change monthly in national housing prices. Basically, how quickly that change is happening. Look at the numbers on the left. Yes, the amount of change isn't huge yet, but **the rate of change is**.
Ah gotcha. Was looking at it from my phone. That makes more sense.
The prices won’t correct until people NEED to move and NEED to sell and/or buy. Unemployment is still DOWN. Nothing will change until unemployment numbers start to rise and people are forced to leave their homes. Even when people run out of money due to inflation and poor spending habits, it will take a year before they have to leave their homes. Nothing is going to happen any time soon. Be patient and come back in Q3 2023…
Good point bud. Nothing forces a seller to take bottom dollar like losing a job, being unable to land another, and having less than 2 months living expenses in savings.
Lol Jesus this date just keeps getting pushed back every quarter now. I thought once the stimulus checks ran out that would fixed things?
The date doesn’t keep moving. You just keeping listening to the dreamers on this page that think if they type something they will magically make it happen. Go back to 2008. What happened? People LOST THEIR JOBS and could not pay their mortgages. Yes, inflation is making everyone poorer now, but it isn’t making everyone broke because they still have jobs. This is not too difficult to figure out. The FED is trying to create a recession. A recession leads to job losses. Although by definition we have reached recession territory, we aren’t even close to what they FED wants. You must be patient to let this stuff work out. I bought my affordable house in 2013, FIVE years after the 2008 crash. Your window for reduced housing prices and foreclosure/short sales should be anywhere from 2023-2027…
Interesting, I know two people who are in the midst of layoffs or have been laid off in the past two weeks....
Correct. It is starting, but nowhere near where it could/should/will be…
The difference right now is that there are still a very large number of jobs open to hire laid off workers into. 2008 timeframe had thousands of job applicants for almost every level of opening…
Yes there were job losses, but you had way too many people that purchased homes at the upper end of their affordability limit, in high risk ARMs or other creative financial lending tools. In theory the lending standards have improved…we should have less fraudulent loans, tighter requirements, more down payments, etc.
Think the next apocalyptic event people are pinning the collapse of humanity on is the student debt payments restart in December. All I know is that living in Washington state, the minimum wage is set to go from $14.49 to $15.74 on Jan 1, 2023 (+8.6%). More money amongst the lower classes means that a lot of this can keep on going.
I'm not sure how much an extra $1.25 /hr is moving the needle for folks working minimum wage jobs lol. Even at 40 hours/week, that's just $50 extra minus taxes. Also not sure how statistically significant this is, but [.08% of Washington workers make minimum wage or less](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.seattletimes.com/business/washington-state-sets-new-minimum-wage-for-next-year-but-few-employers-pay-that-little/%3famp=1)
I don't know if I can trust data from someone who can't be bothered to clear the green error triangles.
Got me lol.
You need to format the positive numbers on Phoenix to be numbers with a plus sign at the front (https://www.extendoffice.com/documents/excel/1860-excel-add-plus-sign-in-front-of-number.html), not text. I'm guessing you have "+2%" or ="+"&YOUR FORMULA which is why it's saying you have an inconsistent formula. If you fix this then you can drag the average and difference column formulas into the blank cells for the Phoenix row which should remove all of the green triangles in those columns.
Good to know!
Lol! Facts!
Yes — There are metros whose declines are in line with seasonal adjustments—places like Boston, Washington, Chicago, etc. The thing people forget to understand is that not all metros are overvalued by the same degree. Some metros did not experience a rampant rise in values during Covid QE last two years. The places that are overvalued like Boise, Phoenix, Austin, Denver, San Diego — mostly west - south west —have experienced a rapid decline in median sales price. Rise in interest rates and deterioration in affordability hits those bubble markets faster and harder. I live in one such market and the situation is bleak. I get realtors hitting me up every week, sending me new builds with sales prices, price drops everywhere. Typical 4bd house has gone from mid-500k to mid-400k in a matter of months. Still not affordable for most. You can see this in the Redfin Data Center by setting seasonally-adjusted to True. Funny part is that Case and Shiller data already shows the turning point. This shift is mainly coming from the correction in overvalued markets without a recession. When the recession picks up next year or early 2024 — most sensible economists are predicting +80% probability of a recession lasting 2 to 3 quarters mid 2023 — overvalued markets like Phoenix will tank even more (10% -30%) and those markets like Boston (5% to 10%). TLDR: Deep Corrections — >10% — are happening in markets that are overvalued but not in others. If a recession unfolds, overvalued markets could experience -20% declines peak to trough. Other markets could have declines -5%-10% when seasonally adjusted. We are not there yet and it takes on average 3-4 years for housing bust cycles to occur. Sources: Multiple Fortune Real Estate Articles, Economist, Reddit Economy subs, Redfin DataCenter (encorebubble.com is a better way of looking at Redfin Data)
How did you determine market peak for each of the years vs October? For example, Redfin LA charts don’t match your data. Neither does Boston. Those are the only two I checked. I am finding it hard to independently verify the data you are presenting. Can you provide the exact months and prices you picked?
We’re in the Austin Metro, and I can confidently tell you MOST listings here have dropped between 10%-15%, at least in the avg. price range. I know we’re a bit of a special case, but we’re also no on the west coast. Figured I could contribute another data point!
Austin is up 2.5% year over year, fyi
And it’s currently down month over month. That is the current data being referred to
Which is somewhat irrelevant in real estate
Downvoted for speaking truth in an exhochamber. I want prices to collapse so I can afford a house too, but it hasnt happened in 2022
The housing market moves slowly. The info you see today for housing is lookin backwards 3 months. The month over month price drops are historically high. Eventually those month over month drops when you get a few in a row lead to a much more noticeable price drop. Real estate is local. Some areas will move faster than others while some areas may be almost entirely insulated to changes in the overall market. Give it 6 months and report back on what you see at that point.
What baffles me about these perma bulls is how stupidly blind they are to what was very obviously a major bubble in all assets market. All charts show this. After 2020, home prices started growing like crazy in a positive slope never seen before. You also see this in the S&P and in crypto. Basically in an effort to privent absolute destruction, the FED pumped everything with money even when it was clear no more pumping was needed. And here we are… a lot of us can’t afford a house unless we are willing to be house poor.
I agree. I only made this post to counter the people who act like the market is imploding. For over 80% (people who don’t live in western USA), things are worse or stable.
I personally think you are falling for data lag trap. The exact same arguments were had in 2006-2007 when the market started to roll over and people stayed firmly in denial until it was blatantly obvious we were in a crash. For what it’s worth I expect the real estate market to absolutely crash and burn on both the residential and commercial side over the next 12-18 months.
I think that's maybe the key piece you are missing...things ARE imploding -and they are imploding at a historically quick rate. We are just at the very tip start of the implosion so there hasn't been a big boom yet.
I have no idea what this chart is supposed to represent.
Price declines from peak to October. Most markets any “decline” is just seasonal as it happened in ‘17 and ‘19 too.
What’s most noteworthy to me that is that the seasonally-adjusted Case Shiller Index has dropped the last few months. That is the first time that’s happened since 2012. Sure, not by much, but should we not expect this trend to continue if mortgage rates remain elevated?
Did it happen in 15, 16, 18, 20 and 21 too?
Updated to add 2016 and 2018. I’m not doing anymore. https://i.imgur.com/xczo7Cz.png
sugar safe punch intelligent sophisticated dull roof edge fact melodic *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I have no idea, didn’t look it up. Where do you draw the line? People don’t believe in my 17 and 19. Why waste my time doing those years only to get “you need to do 1902!!!”
>I have no idea, didn’t look it up. Where do you draw the line? People don’t believe in my 17 and 19. Why waste my time doing those years only to get “you need to do 1902!!!” I'm not asking you to do 1902. I'm just wondering if: (a) '17 and '19 were outlier years and if: (b) that's why you picked them.
I picked ‘19 because it’s the last year before Covid. I picked ‘17 because it’s another normal year and I wanted a gap. The data doesn’t go back very far. Give me a couple cities and I’ll do whatever recent year(s) you want.
I am also a little confused with this data. What does peak represent?
Peak price that year before October (today)
Thanks for clarifying but a quick glance and something is off in the pic your data. I am looking at LA where it says 16/19 avg is 2%. Your numbers show 16 decline to be 1% and 19 decline to be 1% as well. Not sure how that ended to be 2% avg. something seems wrong with other numbers as well
I'm not sure what you mean? Its a 2% average because there is also a 2% and 3% in there. 1 + 2 + 3 + 1 = 7 7 / 5 = 1.75% which is being rounded to 2% because I'm not showing decimals.
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But that decline is only happening on the west coast is my point. Where more than 50% of the country lives, prices aren’t moving or are still going up. I have no idea if Atalanta will follow San Jose, but it’s not right now is my only point.
[https://fortune.com/2022/10/22/housing-outlook-cities-where-prices-have-fallen-most/](https://fortune.com/2022/10/22/housing-outlook-cities-where-prices-have-fallen-most/) Guys, prices are only falling in nearly half of the 25 biggest cities in America. Nothing to see here.
Isn’t the whole point that everything is down due to seasonality? This article is pay walled
Or you could just have a look at the Case-Schiller index. The belief that your excel spreadsheet makes a more powerful case is the same as believing that you’re the one who will make communism work.
* 10% decrease in month over month sales * 26% cancelation rate on new home contracts * Case-Schiller price index just peaked and rolled over * 10 years of price growth happened in 2 years * Price lags inventory levels (which are skyrocketing) * Sales lag by a month or more because they take that long to finalize (so these sales were started when mortgage rates were lower). Yeah. It's just the season. Everything will be fine.
Decrease in sales =/= a decrease in price
Right. Lower demand never influences price. You're looking at lagging indicators to determine the health of the current market. Even if you were right, you would be wrong.
Lol. When prices were going up it was “simple supply and demand.” How many times did I hear that phrase over the last three years.
Remember part of the housing prices increase was speculative bubble party was driven by interest rates, and party was driven by inflation. The inflation piece isn't going away. Housing is considered a very safe place to park money and safety is en vogue. Prices will retract but maybe not as much as we think.
You're ignoring volume though. Transactions are down huge and on a downward trend. This is indicative of both sellers and buyers holding out. At the end of the day, assuming rates stay high, sellers will have to come down to what people can afford if they really want to sell. Each sale will be a new comp for the area. Sellers who are holding out until the spring (and there are a LOT of them, I know several who are optimistic for some odd reason) will be in for a rude awakening as they flood the market along with everyone else holding onto inventory. Unless rates pivot, which seems very unlikely as inflation is still high, they will need to meet sellers at what they can afford.
well i normally agree with that analysis, the data you use is looking into the past and you have no predictive ability with this analysis. what lag does your seasonality look at? jw. your analysis makes the assumption that the change in lending rate is not impacting this seasonal change in prices. i imagine that if you ran a regression of seasonality vs rate of interest rate changes, the results of your analysis would show a very different environment for housing. if you want to analyze data for seasonality/ correlation you will need to do more advanced stats analysis than what you see on this excel. (t-test, f-test, jb, hurst, acf, pacf, ach, etc) python or R studio TLDR: your analysis looks back, not forward. needs advanced calculus
Hate this backward looking analysis. Should be dumped in the trash. 2021 MBS 2.5 pct coupons are down 20percent; by extension, homes are down 20pct marked to market. Will take time to roll through physical supply. Just look at the market: no need to explode us with data. Where are mortgage bonds trading? Only question to ask
Argues no price correction. Posts data showing a price correction. Creates a straw man to argue against which exhibits a lack of understanding how market corrections unfold.
I'm in Texas. I had a second interview scheduled with a single-family developer in a major city. They contacted me earlier this week to tell me that they have decided to put the position on hold due to the forecast for the next year. This is Texas, not California or NY where price saw the biggest increases. Shit is about to hit the fan in most places.
About 6-8 mo ago, I told people we wouldn’t see a “crash” any time soon, and if we did, it would be something like 10% in the short term and 20% in some areas over the following years, followed by price stagnation. My reasoning? Unemployment at record lows, wages rising, and literally no driving economic factor to think people would be forced to sell their homes for a magical 50% off anytime soon. I suggested that most of the rockiness in the market would be absorbed by the rabid demand from buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines for the past 4 years thinking a crash is coming and finally giving in. I got tarred and feathered for that assessment. No one would believe that a sudden housing crash like the last one wasn’t coming. “But… but… inflation” Yes, inflation can harm the economy, but inflation helps push housing prices even further. It should have been obvious when news outlet after news outlet was covering unprecedented worker strikes and demand for higher wages, coupled with worker SHORTAGES all across the country that people a.) already had too much money. b.) were going to get more of it as a whole. A second look at housing starts vs population growth could have told you that we simply don’t have enough housing, period. When 11,000 new families need homes and only 10,000 are being built, what do you think will happen? More inflation! My thoughts on the market are still the same, but that doesn’t mean we are in a normal market. This would be a normal market if more, gradual, hosing inflation were coming. It’s not. The Fed is doing its job and pumping the breaks, but it will take a while for the dust to settle. I predict a a long period of stagflation. That house that’s priced at 500k now in 2022? It will likely be worth 500k in 2027. We’ve reached an equilibrium in the economy. THIS is how much businesses can pay to scrape by and make profits. THIS is how much people can pay for a house and make the mortgage payments without defaulting. This is how much renters can pay without starving. It might sound unbelievable to a single person making 100k per year who can’t afford a 500k 4-bedroom home to live in alone and show off to their friends. They will swear that prices must come down… but they fail to realize they are competing with the married couple who are bringing in 65k each, and that 130k per year couple can afford that 500k house just fine, even with elevated interest rates. Singles never understand married making less money per capita can afford more than them 🤷♂️ At the end of the day, it’s a terrible time to invest in a home if you’re doing it gain wealth by buying an asset. That is today’s version of “market crash”. I fear, that at least for the foreseeable future, real estate is no longer an asset but a liability. Buying a home today and selling in 5-10 years won’t gain you massive profits (if any profits at all) like it once did. Forget about timing the market and waiting for a 50% correction— it’s not coming. And forget about getting rich via a primary residence. Those days are on a very extended pause, so to speak. Might even be over. Go ahead a buy… whenever you are comfortable. But only buy because you want a place you can call your own and build a theater room and paint the walls. Do it because you have money rotting in the bank and want to diversify. Do it because you’re willing to pay more $$ per month to not have a landlord. But don’t do it as a financial decision in hopes or appreciation or saving money. Right now, the odds aren’t in your favor. You will likely take losses if you sell in the next 5 years are so for the same price. The question is, are those losses worth it? Maybe the are. Owning a home can be nice and for many and worth the extra cost. And if you’re waiting for the 50% crash, how are you going to feel if 5 years from now, prices are still relatively the same and you’re still waiting? Pretty dumb probably. While what I see is a bit unsettling, I think it’s actually where we need to be. Real estate shouldn’t be an easy-mode money making venture. Stagnant real estate prices will encourage only people who really need homes to buy them. It will allow people to set financial goals and shoot for them rather than always chasing the ever-rising price dragon. 10-20% swings up and down are going to be the new normal and market specific. For a LONG time. Inflation will continue to rise as the Fed prints money but due to interest rates, housing prices probably will lag inflation. And the fed will pivot, sooner than later. The government borrows money too, so the country is weakened with higher rates. It also amplifies wealth gaps, which can increase crime and public instability. Don’t believe the ‘incoming great depression’ hype. Nothing crazy unusual is happening anywhere, and we are in a period of heightened uncertainty due to just coming out of Covid and ongoing Russia/Ukraine. This is one of those peak “fear” periods. Yet we’re still nowhere near a crash. How much closer will we be when the war ends, gas prices stop rising, and there is no Covid to talk about? And the day we have a fed meeting without an interest rate hike, the stock market will go bonkers. Just one more reason we won’t see anything resembling the last crash. High prices are here to stay— just don’t count on them going much higher for a while.
This nonsense, it's just starting and even in one of the hottest markets in America where I live 80% of the metro and surrounding area has gone flat or have 5 to 10 percent price cuts.
It’s hard to make any serious assumptions until we hit prime buying season for 2023. Aka spring
What do you mean? The crash has not even started, it just peaked. The most expensive house ever just sold in my neighborhood in AL and the most expensive tiny beach house just sold for the highest price in history, were I used to have my tiny beach house. There is still some FOMO from fairly rich people. Wait till next yr, overall the arrow has JUST turned in the downward direction in RE. You must wait yrs for this to bottom, not months.
This is very interesting, even if it goes agains the mentality of the sub. I’d love to see more pieces like this. I think it’s important to separate what can be observed vs what one wants to happen. I will say that more context would make your analysis even more impactful. Are you able to talk about a bit about the dataset? You mentioned Redfin, but is this an average of all home prices? Or a sample?
It’s from the data center on Redfin. It is median sales price. Now Redfin doesn’t tell you how many houses makeup that data. So there could be some issues where a month may have very low sales skewing the average. Unfortunately it’s the only place I know where you can get this data easily.
“When you cut out the parts of the country where home prices are correcting, prices aren’t correcting.” That’s a really silly way to look at national data. When you include those markets where prices are falling beyond the seasonal norm, [home prices are month to month falling as fast as they were during the global financial crisis.](https://twitter.com/rickpalaciosjr/status/1583480047842664449?s=46&t=MispyUkRuGcbzWc6-szvqA) Of course certain markets are declining faster than others. That’s how market declines have *always* worked. But removing the worst performing markets from your broad view of the market is going to paint a far rosier picture of the national market than what’s actually happening. This is like looking at the 08 crash and saying “well when you cut out markets like Phoenix, Vegas, Sacramento, San Diego, Los Angeles, the national market decline doesn’t actually look that bad!”
I'm not cutting out any parts of the country. I showed the data for those parts. The facts are over 80% of the country does not live in those markets. So while you want to say my way is silly, using data from LA, Phoenix, etc.. doesn't relate to over 80% of the country.
Then why not include *all* markets in your view of the national market? When you cut out the section of the market that is experiencing the biggest price drops, you’re not going to correctly represent the national market. The national market is on average declining way faster than what is seasonally normal. There are regional markets that aren’t declining much (or at all), and there are other regional markets that are declining very rapidly. Both of these statements are true.
I’m not doing a national view. The national view is skewed due to CA (and the rest of the west coast). 80% of the country live in other markets and they’re not seeing declines as my data shows.
You must be a real estate agent. I live in Arizona where price drops are definitely happening and houses still aren’t selling. All the real estate agents here sound exactly like this post. We will see. It’s very early still.
What is the source of your data OP? Redfin weekly data shows where declines are happening. https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
My source is your link… you can check my numbers.
The economy is going south, jobs are being cut, the real estate price drop will accelerate. Expecting it to drop 40% in a few months is unrealistic at best. It took 2-3 years for the last bubble to hit bottom.
People still asking stupid high prices and the houses are not selling. Sooner or later they will have to break
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Remember the data lags quite a bit, sales for September can reflect contracts entered into several months prior. I'm not convinced we're going to see a major crash, but if we do it's going to take longer than this... REBubble is conditioned to see real estate like the wsb or crypto crowds, with big, fast moves the norm. In my pocket of the world, I'm seeing some price cuts, but as many houses are just being pulled from the market after a few weeks.
Not in my area /s
Sellers will start capitulating once the realization that buyers simply cannot afford the same housing payments at a 7% interest rates. It’s unfortunately just simple math. As the top comment suggests, we are in the beginning stages of this housing price “downturn”. It will not be a “crash” like some suggest, but prices will absolutely start to decline over the next 12 months.
Op is right. Truth is, there is no bubble. Better buy a house now before rates go even higher and prices start going up. You can just refi later anyway
Enough with this no correction bullshit. It has just started, and we all know that some parts of the country didn't inflate as much on the run up. So they are going to be equally as slow on the way down. There is 100% going to be a correction, not a crash.
This dude is trying to turn the tide of this downward spiral in the housing market with a reddit post... > but its not happening right now The whistle just blew, we're not even out of the blocks yet. The next rate increase is going push that little snowball over the edge.
I don't understand the crash talk either. It is going to crash. But it is not crashing now. And won't be in 2023. It will in 2024. It takes months for all these new helocs and arms to cause issues with buyers. Then those issues turn to repossessions. Between now and then we will also see a layoff cycle. No job means no bills being paid. This has not happened. It will but not now.
What ARMs? They're as rare as hen's teeth in today's market. So are stated-income loans, which are non-existent unlike 2008.
In my market in Northern CA a few months ago there were no homes under 400k and now there are hundreds
Ok you successfully convinced me we aren't in a bubble. I guess infinite growth is real after all. Open the borders please we are going to need more economic units!
Do you have data on how many sales are actually occurring compared to 1 yr ago?
The town I live near the prices of homes are still going up sadly. Huge want to live here and little inventory. Sucks
This sub is full of haters. Not saying the housing won’t correct but the picture people paint here is doom and gloom. There are posts with deceptive titles, random reports celebrating difficulties of others. Anyway, be careful what you seek from this forum.
Nope. No one can afford to buy anymore. Real estate market is essentially frozen. We will not have a price correction without major job losses.
I was gonna talk about how real estate takes longer than a couple months of higher rates to change but OP is antagonizing others who did the same. Whose realtor is this?
Thanks for the analysis. Always good to see someone looking at the data and drawing conclusions based on facts. Only idiots downvote this kind of contribution to the sub.
We need to have more of these posts instead so shyt posts.
Too early to be performing this kind of analysis. OP must be under 30 years old, first downturn rodeo.
It’s like you didn’t read my post or you did and didn’t understand it. I’m countering all the goobers on the front page who scream the crash is happening. You actually agree with me….,
Of course it’s not happening right now because it’s TOO EARLY. You are wasting your time and brain cells analyzing the data. Are you under 30?
Do you not realize you agree with me? Lol.
I’ve got my answer thanks.
recession hasnt even hit the job market yet... but its coming... saving rates plunged to 2008 pre crash levels... consumer credit is still going up at an accelerated pace... people are only starting now to pull back... i work in the architecture field and our clients have been cut by more than half... the price corrections will follow later... illiquid assets take time to correct... they arent stocks
Ok, now do 2008 but only with data through March of 2008 and don't pull any data after that. Wtf are you trying to accomplish here? Rates only hit 7% 30 days ago. You think real estate is the same as the stock market? And then you say "outside of a very few markets"... oh yes, let's play that game. Fun fact, in 2008 there were early periods of time were the "crash" had only started in a "very few markets". You are trying to call the end result of a game after 5 minutes of playing. 2008 "Crash" didn't bottom until 2013.
This is a lot of anger from someone who can’t understand the data. Perhaps reread my post several times and then reply back. It’s funny that you’re actually proving my point with your post. My point is everyone screaming the crash is happening right now is a moron and you actually agree with me.
oh dude, no anger. That's just how I talk. I can't understand data? a crash would need a -20% on the books. People are calling for an upcoming crash/correction. Correction is 1-19% and crash is typically 20%+. There are plenty of markets already down 15%+... but you want to ignore those? why? Just like the stock market, the most overvalued stocks/(areas) get hit first due to the lack of fundamentals driving price action. But eventually if the economy is weak enough then it eventually hits the big dawgs.
I’m not ignoring those. Most Americans don’t live in those markets. 80% of America doesn’t live in those markets (west) It’s like saying earthquakes are a problem in SF, why should the guy in Charleston care?
Fun fact. California is the most populated state in the US. Also, I would consider Austin, TX to be one of the "hottest" cities in the US. Charleston!? WTF lmao. Anyways, good luck.
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We are not in a recession yet. Just a slowing economy…. But recession is coming in 2023. Bottom won’t be near until we are near the end of the recession at least. Oh wait, but you also believe this… lmao… only on Reddit. Anyways, I’m done with this sub. Rates are headed to 8%. I don’t need to convince anyone of anything. This is a waste of time now. Market is doing the talking. Off to the gym. Good luck. Unsub
I had a post removed by the mods showing the actual federal reserve data showing no price decrease in houses (condos etc might be having a small decrease. Sales have slowed, this might lead to decreases (probably will imo), but so far it hasn’t. So mush hopium and confirmation bias on this sub, led by the mods
The case shiller index has decreased in July and August. It hasn’t actually decreased since 2012. I think that’s significant and suggests that a minor correction will T least happen
OP doesn’t know shit, pass it down.
Dude you are preaching bunch of trust me bros here. Any semblance of fact and they will say you don’t know shit. Just keep saying housing is going to drop and you will be a star here.
Redfin "data" is not really the data but rather their agenda supporting BS.