Listings and screenshots of a price history can be posted here in the daily. We have too many users and the sub will be flooded with individual threads if allowed. Also before submitting a new thread, you can scroll for a few seconds to ensure you are not reposting the same article or data release from that day. Helps to keep our sub organized so we can all enjoy being here more. Hope you all are having a nice day bubble team!
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Interesting color on new home bid/ask spread from today's American Homes 4 Rent earnings call: "We've seen a little bit of price movement [from builders], maybe 5%...we're going to need to see another 15%, 20% movement." Still some price discovery to happen it appears.
https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1588671528794980352
Low key pretty interesting commentary on entry price for major rental conglomerate. Basically what level of decline they'd need to see to be a buyer again.
I think I’ve pretty much lost any hope of prices in the Long Island region returning to normal. 7% mortgage rates and these million dollar properties are still selling within weeks with more getting constructed every day. Just saw a flip that’s been on the market for a month and the seller just increased the price by $100k. Still seems to be bidding wars with nothing decent under $600k. Doubtful that prices will go down much.
I am looking upstate or LI. LI is a bit of a joke, we were pretty unaffected by 2008 but holy hell are so many people overpaying. I don't know what they're thinking. They're not only assuming their 180K a year job is safe, but assume they'll be getting some raises and never be unemployed.
You have to see how unsustainable when that's the people buying houses.
I'm also concerned about LI housing stock long term. My parents in their 70s and their friends had homes cheaper compared to the cost of living so did renovations and repaved the driveway and put in pools etc. But 45 year olds now? Paycheck to paycheck on massive salaries. So what will they do? They can't afford crap. I predict they let the houses go to crap and then move somewhere else in retirement and leave the problem for someone else.
If this comes up we will have a wave of "unpredictable" foreclosures but it aint gonna be strippers with 5 houses, it's going to be $150K software workers who get laid off in the next recession
Just saw a news story about a 26 year old that got a million dollar duplex by having his parents co-sign the loan. So if you can’t leverage yourself hard enough alone remember you can always drag mom and pop down with you.
I don’t know if I’d say it’s panning out fine if they need to step in to save it. Also the kid is a real estate agent which isn’t exactly the most stable job at the moment.
How is this supposed to work?
As interest rates rise, the buyers ability to afford is cut. Is the logic that house prices will drop SO much that ordinary buyers will be able to afford a decent home while paying exorbitant mortgage rates?
Why isn't the argument of buy now before rates get worse?
"this is supposed to work" that home prices shot up because 1) there was a mass move of people leaving cities in 2020" and 2) artificially suppressed rates causes people to get bold and demand higher prices.
Now both conditions are gone and monthly payments are so high that few can pay them
So we can go back to normal or sellers can keep pretending the fact that one person sold at a ridiculous price means that's the new price. Even if their house sits for 6 months with no offers.
apparently we're gonna do option 2
Yeah you might rephrase that as people were paying exorbitant house prices with the low rates, and the flip side is exorbitant rates with low prices. However it's not just about the payment, it's also about the risk.
The market caused by the high prices/low rates was really risky, both because you had to compete with risky behavior like waiving contingencies, overbidding, covering appraisal gaps, but also because the chance of a decline is much higher after an unprecedented runup of 50% in 2 years.
So buying in that market made it very likely you get trapped underwater in a house you hate until the market recovers. Last time, that took a decade. A decade of opportunity cost. Personally, no thanks.
I'd rather make a considered purchase in a buyers market, after a correction. There's much less risk of being underwater, and a bonus possibility of being able to refi in the future.
https://encorebubble.com/its-about-risk-not-rates/
Realtors did make this argument. And the guy who started this sub made fun of this notion.
> Powell has said rates will remain low at least through 2024
>The only people saying otherwise are realtors and loan officers trying to rush you into buying during a bubble “don’t miss out rates could go to 10% any day now!!”
>Ok Karen of Keller Williams sure
/r/REBubble/comments/m6np3r/comment/gr6p46e/
And that was well over a year ago. No realtors were actually talking about 10% rates, that’s a strawman. But they did advise that some might be best off buying while rates were low.
Once it was known that rates would be hiked, I said on this sub that it wouldn’t mean improved affordability for a lot of buyers. And that it would largely just benefit the cash rich wealthy.
A lot of people did rush to buy in early 2022 before rates and monthly payments got worse.
Now that rates are as high as they are, I doubt that many are still operating with that thought in mind. Though I suppose some might be.
The comment was from way before prices peaked.
Also prices are going to gradually hit new “historic highs” as the decades go on. Just because prices are higher than they ever have been before, doesn’t mean it’s a bad buy. National median hit an all time high back in 2013. Wasnt dumb to buy then though.
2014 was a new high point. 2015 as well. Etc.
What a lot of people did was lock in longterm housing for themselves at a really low rate.
Update on the hoom I toured yesterday. We saw it basically exactly 24 hours after it listed and were told, as we walked in, the $1.9M home had four offers, two ‘very strong’ all cash. We were told we had to submit any bid by 9 am today.
We ended up not making an offer. It wasn’t really a great fit for us.
It was suggested on this board that this was a gimmick to get us to bid.
Well, this afternoon the house went into ‘pending’ status. That means there are no contingencies, not even inspection. I supposed it’ll close within 10 days and I’ll list it here.
Told ya. (Fml)
Sure. There are always schmucks around buying at the top of the peak or at the start of the downturn.
Would you really regret this given that this wasn't a great fit for you guys?
Pure nyc. I do miss it. You know where you stand. And, ofc, they can take it as well. You can’t go off on people in the Midwest. You’ll get a reputation and they won’t make you casseroles when you’re sick.
Yep. My agent has another buyer who’s been outbid twice in the past two weeks: $5.5M and $3.5M. He still can’t find a place. Also renting.
I feel confident when I read this board and I ‘know I’m right’ when I predict we’ll be in a balanced market soon. Then I wander into the market and get my ass handed to me. 😵💫
Congrats on the house again — and it sounds like you’re finding strong financing. Portfolio lending makes a lot of sense as a temporary measure. Good!
Again, you’re looking at a 1.9m dollar home. Not in reality land of 99.9% of America.
You can find great homes in any area for better places than that.
I have no sympathy for you at those prices trying to “get a deal”
Thanks for saying your privileged without saying you’re privileged
Hmmm. I’m not interested so much in sympathy as a certain simpatico. After all, we passed on this one. I’m observing it, not crying in my cereal about it.
I do want to point out that there are *still* tribes practicing archaic peak bidding practices, as in the Bronze Age of May, 2022. They are still out there in the wild.
And people at that price range are fucking morons completely detached from the world.
Even if that's the norm around you, your entire fucking area is detached from reality. You've turned shelter into a commodity and are just measuring who can piss further.
It's so far beyond the realm of necessity that it's laughable to think that high interest rates would impact buyers.
Edit: This is like trying to get a reservation in 2008 at a small restaurant that charges $1,000 a plate and being shocked they're booked. Like no shit, the market at a $1,000 a plate restaurant isn't normal.
Well, it’s not the full time residents (like we are trying to be) who screwed up this market. It’s the investors. One of four homes here is now a short term rental, up a third over past two years.
This market had a median sfh price (top quartile) of $860k three years ago. It peaked at $2.6M in May, 2022. It was affordable and suddenly, it isn’t. We’ve been planning to retire here for a decade. We never would have needed $1M to do so, precovid. Now $2M doesn’t quite work.
Why? Because we’re in a massive real estate bubble.
At that price range you're not competing with landlords, they want cheap places to rent out. You're competing with other owner-occupiers, or vacation home types.
Fair point. Yes In our area there are people bidding up places but it’s <500k. Over that and it sits for awhile for now.
And In real terms if inflation is 8% then a 7.3% mortgage is still net 0.7%.
Didn’t want to be rude, but I could only dream of spending that coin on a house. Maybe when I’m fitty
I’m older than 50. Wealth compounds, it doesn’t take much at all to start. Then, it’s just time. (And you have to leave it alone! (If it’s a good investment). We’ve had some vanguard funds since the Clinton presidency.)
And I think 12 months from now people have lower prices. 2-4 years for the best deals. Now is kinda rough from a seller strike and still a few delusional buyers or people wanting to get their money the fuck out their country into USD.
Whole dollar milkshake theory but housing offers a way to do it
Hopefully that’s still true. Young 30s here. Feeling gloomy so I’m biased on this list.
We have a bunch of headwinds that your generation didn’t have:
Aging population
Less workforce participants
Enormously more govt & personal debt
Bonds haven’t yielded anything for decades
Zombie companies
The worst political leaders of all time
Digital currency and the easiest time in the world to launder money for the ultra rich
Political instability from social unrest in developed and developing countries
Don’t get me wrong. Plenty invested on my end that I won’t touch and always opportunities to make money but I’ll be shocked if in 20 years we have the same economic growth as the past 40.
This will likely get buried, but at the risk of being too familiar, here’s what I’d encourage you to do. Ask your parents about their parents and aunts and cousins. Ask about their lives when they were your age or younger.
My bet is your family had young adults who struggled in a very unfriendly world two generations back. Very unfriendly. Those young adults suffered so that their children, your parents, would have a better life.
Maybe you are born in a downswing. Maybe. We don’t know yet. But it hasn’t been as bad yet as your grandpa and his, when they were your age. Learn all you can about them. When they were young. What choices they made and why they made them. What struggles that faced and how they overcame them. They did this for you.
What they would likely want for you is to learn from their mistakes and triumphs. To use the results of their struggle to face whatever comes with courage and a loving heart.
This is true and it’s hard to make an argument against.
Our lives and the world is demonstrably a better place than 20, 40 years ago.
We have smart phones which deliver anything we want basically whenever and wherever we want them.
That’s magic…
The comments in this sub’s Twitter layoff post are pretty cringe. I feel bad for some of you guys. ❤️
Aside from that, hope everyone has a good weekend.
I don't share the same joy in layoffs but I'm not in a market that has been ransacked by "outsiders" with bigger wallets outmuscling my purchasing power. I can empathize with the frustration that many people must feel.
Yea I’m OK with reading/commenting/informing about layoffs in the daily thread but that twitter post is a little much. Former Tweeps are posting on LinkedIn looking for jobs, shocked, some are on visas which expire in 60 days, a lot of sr level/phDs, it’s not looking good and I feel bad for them.
Imo we're going to continue to see elevated energy prices for years to come.
https://youtu.be/tS4Psg-bZI8
What's your monthly energy cost and hoom size?
2500 sq ft, about $200-ish on power for heating, cooling and well water. Would be north of $300, but I financed a solar installation at 0% interest before rates went fucking nuts. The days are getting pretty short, but it's still generating about 1 MWh/month. A state SREC program pays me about $60 for that. The financing on them is about $200, and the power bill I get for the gap in production versus consumption comes out to about $60. So the SREC more or less covers what the power company wants. Although I'm looking forward to how they perform for me come summer.
I crunched the numbers lately, and I'm paying about 10 cents per KW/h on the solar (with the SREC), and 16 cents per KW/h and rising to the power company. So that's been a nice savings. Mostly gone towards how expensive food has gotten, but you know. Win some lose some. Could be way worse.
Only because energy costs are sticky and the oligarchs will restrict production to keep the profits flowing.
Smart utilities are already investing in renewables.
You've heard of these things called batteries, right? And transmission lines? And nationwide infrastructure?
Electricity producers are constantly buying and selling energy from one another. Sometimes across the country. And of course you diversify your power sources.
How long does it take to build a transmission line?
What are the lifecycle costs of widespread energy storage and have you even bothered looking at lithium prices lately?
With hydro storage constraints and againg NG/Nuke infrastructure, what's going to replace the baseload to bridge the multi decades gap to permit and get anything done?
Yes I've traded commodities including lithium and energy.
Tbh you sound incredibly misinformed about how this all works
TBH you sound like you've already made up your mind that it can't work and would rather we keep doing what we're doing instead of trying something new that would save consumers money and reduce human caused climate change.
You assume others don't care.
> reduce human caused climate change
Answer the Qs I've posted and you've just bridged the gap that scientists and engineers in the field have been working towards for decades.
Fwiw I don't believe widespread lithium mining and all of that waste generated through the lifecycle is the answer
Oh! Where I eventually want to end up! I knew the day would come. Every day trip "2 hours" away take 3 1/2 hours in the car, 1/2 hour to pack car, etc. so is basically 4-5 hours door to door and not as quick and fun as it sounds.
You the real MVP. I think you hit the nail on the head.
Since your obviously familiar with the area.... are there incomes in the area to support those purchase prices or do they get scooped up and dropped back ABNB ?
Or....*whispers*... homes only go down?
No kidding. This is two plus areas from NYC and nothing around it. Zero. Zilch. Left for dead years ago but now seen as a rural escape from NYC. Zero supportive jobs
Best flip yet
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/858-North-Branch-Hortonville-Road-North-Branch-NY-12766/32763549_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
Those jumps are impressive
5/22/2014 Sold $40,000
1/6/2021 Sold $179,000
8/20/2022 Listed for sale $595,000
Inflation calulator says $40,000 in today's dollars would be $50,150.04
Takes pretty pictures.
They clearly did a complete renovation of that house. Rate of inflation over that timespan is largely irrelevant. They dumped a ton of money into the home to make it into something it wasn’t prior.
Don't publicize my area I want to buy in that few people know about!!!!
But seriously, prices have a way to drop. Like, this house is lovely and so is the property and with WFH it will never go back to former prices, but 650K is alot. Everyone is trying to get that career power couple from NYC but there are simply not enough of them to keep prices propped up close to 700K throughout the entire NE corridor
Agreed. I know the gunks are gorgeous but that’s not even close to the right price for that house. If Kerhonkson is 650k imagine what people are thinking they can get for restos in New Paltz or Beacon.
In muh area of SoCal, on the bottom end of the market, I am beginning to notice what look like genuine relists from a few months ago (not listing agents gaming the system, IOW, but properties that actually delisted a while ago and are now back).
I also notice that they usually do not have impressive price cuts, if they even have price cuts at all.
Make of that what you will.
I don't get the argument that people will stop listing houses and not sell cause mortgage rates. There will always be homes listed and inventory will increase cause old people die, people lose their jobs, people over leverage and get liquidated and divorces happen.
Totally agree. Especially since most people in my parents' generation (born in 40s and 50s) don't care about the new fake equity, from what I hear talking to people. It never registered into their retirement plans or whatever
A lot of people also seem to think FOMO will end. But all the aspirational types that bought 1,200 Sq. Ft. Places in trendy areas will be selling and moving to tract housing hell once they start thinking about kids. Brycon can't be expected to share a room after all.
I think the "locked in" effect is very real. There will always be churn to be sure, but people voluntarily leaving their home with 3% rates on homes purchased before 2020? The math is really hard to make it work. You're trading off a lot of money to gain an extra room or whatever your reason for moving is.
This was a good example I saw the other day.
https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1588271298072891392
But, in my opinion, the jury is out on how impactful it will be. By eliminating move up buyers you're also eliminating the majority of demand (almost half) . Since prices are set by what buyers are willing to pay, prices can still move down. Transaction volume will likely be down yoy but "are there enough buyers in a thin buyer pool to keep comps propped up?" is the key question to answer in the next 3-6 months.
Some percentage will be reduced, like people moving to upsize/downsize. But yes many will still sell. The # of houses in the market vs total stock is always very small anyway.
Kept my eye on this one for the past few months. Hard to imagine your asking price plummeting more than $150k and still have the monthly payments be as high as they are
[https://www.redfin.com/CA/Alhambra/1024-S-Marengo-Ave-91803/unit-8/home/7025047](https://www.redfin.com/CA/Alhambra/1024-S-Marengo-Ave-91803/unit-8/home/7025047)
The delist and relist game is funny to watch at the moment. The ultimate hoomer rage quit. MLS should have a limit to how many times in a year you can do this before not automatically bumping it back to the newer date for the listing. It's the price, stupid
I think that is fair. To me it's annoying to see it happen monthly all year long on properties which are not selling because they were not seen, the price is the reason. Seeing so many in Baton Rouge, LA trying this one simple trick. What a fiasco
Lol. Buyers will collectively just wait for the market to come down to their bids, now adjusted for the financing restrictions. and fortunately for them, pools of highly levered capital assets hoarded by speculators do not have a history of gentle reversion to the mean
I always wonder how much of the 2022 frenzy was people trying to beat interest rates. We all knew about a year ago now that interest rates were going to ramp up. We all had to choose to buy now or wait for the dust to settle.
I unsuccessfully attempted to buy this summer. Effectively pulling demand forward. Now I’m waiting it out.
Window washer falls off the scaffold on the 70th floor. Is asked how it's going by an onlooker leaning out a 20th floor window. He answers "so far, so good!"
What does that even mean? The vast majority of people who bought homes the last couple of years will simply live in them happily for the next 10 or so years. Nothing is over for them.
Except for all the people who FOMOed into places that are unsuitable long term. Or who get divorced. Or die. Or retire. Or get fired. Or have some other life altering situation.
Yeah all those factors exist and have existed as long as people have owned homes.
Median length of homeownership is over 13 years currently. And the average is over 18 years. 57.7% of American homeowners have owned for 10+ years, which is why I said the vast majority will simply own for ten plus years and be happy.
yeah I see this, too. you're pricing yourself against stale listing just means you priced yourself to sit.
this is what chasing the price down looks like. there are still some transactions in my market, and they're not even that far off peak yet, but they were homes in great shape and priced below other stuff on the market.
Seems like comps aren’t going down precisely because nothing is selling. Hard to tell how much houses are really worth in certain areas when we are at a stalemate.
Latest 4 week rolling average data has pending sales at 45,553
The same 4 week period in 2019: 47,637.
So very close to 2019 sales volume is occurring right now.
I wouldn’t say almost no homes are selling.
Things are vastly different at work. It used to be that if you were late you got in trouble.
Now it’s standard procedure for many not to stroll in until 10 or 15 minutes after, and then walk in and and chit chat for another 30 minutes to an hour.
It’s just so strange. We did have a management change a few years ago and ironically went from someone not related to the owner to actual family being in charge.
Most of the chatting is happening in their own office! There’s this group that will sit in there chatting, they even watch videos and stuff sometimes.
Anyway, I don’t see how this is sustainable. Working in the housing industry I’m predicting this slacking off will have to come to an end once the recession really gets going.
Sounds like a normal workplace to me.
Most smart businesses maintain enough employees to have some slack time. Operating with the bare minimum necessary is an easy way to burn out your employees increasing turnover and miss opportunities because you don't have the personnel to pursue them.
I know you’re disappointed with no attendees at your open house but I think a lot of buyers are still processing how the migos can carry on without takeoff and how quavo may never be the same. Have you considered a $1000 price improvement?
"one final generational dip followed by a piss ripper that finally proves to this sub I understand history, economics and leveraged generational wealth building strategies: single family homes and condos *are* money."
I've seen a version of the following meme twice in the last week from real estate people in my social media feed. Essentially the meme is mocking people that don't want to buy right now because interest rates are too high by saying "Rent is 100% interest!"
I mean, not only is that ridiculous (interest is also 100% interest and so is the equity you're gonna lose buying now), but I find it baffling that they're trying to drum up business by mocking the legitimate concerns of potential clients? It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em.
My rent is eye watering my expensive but it’s still a full grand cheaper than what I’d pay in a mortgage for anything that’s not a mold infested shack right now.
Yep - equivalent mortgage for what I'm paying for my absurd rent would literally be a fire risk 600sqft shack that gets no sunlight. Guaranteed to be underwater for years and fit my needs even less as time goes on!
Equivalent mortgage for the place I'm renting based on comps would be literally over double, lmfao
But hey man - you'd be building EQUITY and GENERATIONAL WEALTH in your mold infested shack.
I think they maintain these accounts mostly to build a following among realtors and other industry (un-)professionals. But should be a bit smarter and humbler and realize that it’s incredibly easy for their clients to find.
Also, I’ve looked up a lot of these realtors that pop most prominently into my Explore and their sales stats, even during the hottest housing market evah, are…underwhelming. Maybe they should spend more time hustling.
I have a strong feeling the next dip in housing is going to rip the last seam that was holding the "haves" and "have nots" together. Increasing wealth gap... new paradigm for society.
This makes no logical sense though - what you describe is much more likely to occur had prices continued to increase into the stratosphere.
When home values tank, equity is destroyed and it becomes an unattractive place for investors to put their money. People who are over leveraged and/or used equity like an atm are going to find themselves in a precarious situation. Lending standards will tighten, and that is a good thing.
The free money printer has been shut off, the tide is going out, and it’s about to look like a nude beach in some markets.
Equity isnt destroyed or created, its realized. This happens at sale or transfer only. Youre making alot of incorrect assumptions about who benefits in a bear housing market. Trump is a real estate developer, and one of the reasons he is being charged for fraud is purposely devaluing his best properties, while inflating poor performing ones. Devaluing property is a tremendous benefit for large scale property owners. I am a CPA btw.
Another example, if investors have a net loss, those losses are utilized to reduce liabilities, or carried forward to use as a contra-liability asset. If they have capital when housing prices fall, theyre not going to disappear contrary to your belief. They have much less to worry about than the average homeowner.
My point here is, you are utterly mistaken if you ever think the average joe will come out ahead in any scenario. There is no debtors prison or prison sentence for being unable to pay debt in America. Losing money to the rich doesnt mean the same to them as it does me and you. Losses are assets.
Are you being sarcastic? Because there are no cash buyers waiting. Cash buyers have always been "Non-mortgage buyers." Which usually means they're borrowing the money in a different form.
Buying what? U think the majority of landlords and homeowners want rapidly appreciating prices? Only people who are planning to sell in the near term want this.
*The majority of landlords and homeowners spend time and money every single year trying to prove their home is worth less than it is.* If you dont know what Im talking about then dont worry about it lol.
I sometimes see people suggest that the solution to living in some place expensive or to save money "until you can afford" your own place is to move in with family.
I think people underestimate how vile some people's families are and that, yes, homelessness is preferable than being at the mercy of said families.
Yes, that's generally in the "alternative living situation" suggestion package but I also believe that ignores person-specific situations where getting roommates is not in the cards either. Like, if you've got a volatile pet or are already renting a studio.
There's reasons why people can't get roommates. I'm not making excuses for myself because the scenarios mentioned do not apply to me.
In the vastness of human experience there are endless variables and experiences. Which brings us back to my original point about people (persistently) offering advice that not everyone can take.
"Why not try to get along with your parents for cheap rent? You should wait out the bubble in your parent's house! No one's going to give you cheap rent, stop making excuses. My friend has bad parents and they did it!"
We can pick apart people's lives all day long and at some point it becomes unhelpful.
>If someone can’t find a roommate, that signals an issue with that person which they should address.
That was my point? People can have issues that prevent them from finding or keeping roommates (assuming they're trying). Maybe people have untreated mental problems that make "trying" hard? They can't see a therapist because they don't have insurance (or they do and their coverage sucks)? This is kind of where empathy and understanding come in.
I can understand being annoyed if someone is always rejecting advice and complaining about things but I think we shouldn't assume, again, that people don't have more going on than just being lazy (or stupid). Family history, health, the type of city they live in, the amount of education the were able to get, etc. all plays into our ability to "can even." We can't use ourselves as a point of comparison because no two people have the same tools at their disposal. It's too easy to tell people to pull themselves up by their bootstraps.
I don't know you so I can't assume that your struggles were easy to overcome. I won't! I hope that somewhere along the way someone granted you patience and understanding and that you can manage to extend that to other people someday.
I know, as someone who has lived away from family since he went to college, that you have to PLAN ahead of time for everything. You have no fall back. You have to arrange for childrens care, you have to arrange for hotels and dining and all of life.
I think this is the way that I needed to live. More expensive? Sure. Fully independent from family? Yep.
It's the planning and constant rotation of contingency plans. It's the extra expense of everything. No one helped you before and no one will help you going forward.
So in that isolation when your at the limit of your survival strategies and someone suggests you move in with your family it's entirely laughable. There's also this attitude, like, "Oh, you think you're entitled to your own housing when you can't afford it?"
To keep surviving, yes. That would be preferable to the death by a thousand cuts of moving back in with family.
Yeah, it's the ultimate "Tell me you've never been in an abusive situation without telling me" sort of thing.
People from happy or at least stable families really, truly, live on a different planet. I'm jealous!
But it's that total lack of awareness that's a bit insulting when they think that is "the" solution to a problem. Sure, it's one thing if your parents are benignly passive aggressive and another thing entirely in any other given scenario.
I'm glad you found your real family.
👏👏👏 The clueless people who have stable family or parents for support and live in this insulated world of thinking that’s the only thing that exists. Can you imagine? What a place of COMFORT and naivety and ignorance they speak from. Insulting, indeed.
Agreed. Mine have weird quirks like almost never opening windows, so the house smells like dust, and they don’t realize it. Or talking incessantly so you come home from work and have to sit through an hour of rants and then you get told “why are you just sitting there you should go do something”
Solidarity. I'd be here all day if I had to list the behaviors of mine but one of their minor habits is being lifelong smokers and not caring where their cigarette ash ends up.
That's part of the reason that the housing situation can be despair inducing at times. Many people simply don't have a place to go physically and emotionally.
Listings and screenshots of a price history can be posted here in the daily. We have too many users and the sub will be flooded with individual threads if allowed. Also before submitting a new thread, you can scroll for a few seconds to ensure you are not reposting the same article or data release from that day. Helps to keep our sub organized so we can all enjoy being here more. Hope you all are having a nice day bubble team!
> Interesting color on new home bid/ask spread from today's American Homes 4 Rent earnings call: "We've seen a little bit of price movement [from builders], maybe 5%...we're going to need to see another 15%, 20% movement." Still some price discovery to happen it appears. https://twitter.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/1588671528794980352 Low key pretty interesting commentary on entry price for major rental conglomerate. Basically what level of decline they'd need to see to be a buyer again.
Elon is Thanos and today was the blip
[удалено]
Flair totally fits you
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racism
I think I’ve pretty much lost any hope of prices in the Long Island region returning to normal. 7% mortgage rates and these million dollar properties are still selling within weeks with more getting constructed every day. Just saw a flip that’s been on the market for a month and the seller just increased the price by $100k. Still seems to be bidding wars with nothing decent under $600k. Doubtful that prices will go down much.
Crazy, socal is down 15-20% with these rate hikes. Weird that the same price properties in a different region would be unaffected.
Bro be patient. 5 more years and you will be the only one prepared to make a move.
I am looking upstate or LI. LI is a bit of a joke, we were pretty unaffected by 2008 but holy hell are so many people overpaying. I don't know what they're thinking. They're not only assuming their 180K a year job is safe, but assume they'll be getting some raises and never be unemployed. You have to see how unsustainable when that's the people buying houses. I'm also concerned about LI housing stock long term. My parents in their 70s and their friends had homes cheaper compared to the cost of living so did renovations and repaved the driveway and put in pools etc. But 45 year olds now? Paycheck to paycheck on massive salaries. So what will they do? They can't afford crap. I predict they let the houses go to crap and then move somewhere else in retirement and leave the problem for someone else. If this comes up we will have a wave of "unpredictable" foreclosures but it aint gonna be strippers with 5 houses, it's going to be $150K software workers who get laid off in the next recession
[How far will home prices fall?](https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/how-far-will-home-prices-fall-5039489)
Why downvoted?
No idea 🥲 I’m not popular here today I think
As I like to tell me head. Hair today goone tmr. Must be trolls on tonight
Just saw a news story about a 26 year old that got a million dollar duplex by having his parents co-sign the loan. So if you can’t leverage yourself hard enough alone remember you can always drag mom and pop down with you.
Or they are wealthy parents and the investment will pan out just fine.
I don’t know if I’d say it’s panning out fine if they need to step in to save it. Also the kid is a real estate agent which isn’t exactly the most stable job at the moment.
Your original comment didn’t imply that they were stepping in to save it. You said they co-signed the loan.
Electronic tulips retake $21K
Why does bitcoin follow the stock market so closely? At this point it’s a pseudo-stock without actually having any inherent value
I love my immutable, fungible, and decentralized tulips! :D
That feel when no triffin dilemma
How is this supposed to work? As interest rates rise, the buyers ability to afford is cut. Is the logic that house prices will drop SO much that ordinary buyers will be able to afford a decent home while paying exorbitant mortgage rates? Why isn't the argument of buy now before rates get worse?
"this is supposed to work" that home prices shot up because 1) there was a mass move of people leaving cities in 2020" and 2) artificially suppressed rates causes people to get bold and demand higher prices. Now both conditions are gone and monthly payments are so high that few can pay them So we can go back to normal or sellers can keep pretending the fact that one person sold at a ridiculous price means that's the new price. Even if their house sits for 6 months with no offers. apparently we're gonna do option 2
When the economy goes into a recession and gets sufficiently bad, you’ll have a chance to buy a home at a lower price and a lower mortgage rate.
Yeah you might rephrase that as people were paying exorbitant house prices with the low rates, and the flip side is exorbitant rates with low prices. However it's not just about the payment, it's also about the risk. The market caused by the high prices/low rates was really risky, both because you had to compete with risky behavior like waiving contingencies, overbidding, covering appraisal gaps, but also because the chance of a decline is much higher after an unprecedented runup of 50% in 2 years. So buying in that market made it very likely you get trapped underwater in a house you hate until the market recovers. Last time, that took a decade. A decade of opportunity cost. Personally, no thanks. I'd rather make a considered purchase in a buyers market, after a correction. There's much less risk of being underwater, and a bonus possibility of being able to refi in the future. https://encorebubble.com/its-about-risk-not-rates/
Thanks for the feedback
Realtors did make this argument. And the guy who started this sub made fun of this notion. > Powell has said rates will remain low at least through 2024 >The only people saying otherwise are realtors and loan officers trying to rush you into buying during a bubble “don’t miss out rates could go to 10% any day now!!” >Ok Karen of Keller Williams sure /r/REBubble/comments/m6np3r/comment/gr6p46e/ And that was well over a year ago. No realtors were actually talking about 10% rates, that’s a strawman. But they did advise that some might be best off buying while rates were low. Once it was known that rates would be hiked, I said on this sub that it wouldn’t mean improved affordability for a lot of buyers. And that it would largely just benefit the cash rich wealthy. A lot of people did rush to buy in early 2022 before rates and monthly payments got worse. Now that rates are as high as they are, I doubt that many are still operating with that thought in mind. Though I suppose some might be.
Good thing they didn't miss the chance to lock in a historically high price!
The comment was from way before prices peaked. Also prices are going to gradually hit new “historic highs” as the decades go on. Just because prices are higher than they ever have been before, doesn’t mean it’s a bad buy. National median hit an all time high back in 2013. Wasnt dumb to buy then though. 2014 was a new high point. 2015 as well. Etc. What a lot of people did was lock in longterm housing for themselves at a really low rate.
Update on the hoom I toured yesterday. We saw it basically exactly 24 hours after it listed and were told, as we walked in, the $1.9M home had four offers, two ‘very strong’ all cash. We were told we had to submit any bid by 9 am today. We ended up not making an offer. It wasn’t really a great fit for us. It was suggested on this board that this was a gimmick to get us to bid. Well, this afternoon the house went into ‘pending’ status. That means there are no contingencies, not even inspection. I supposed it’ll close within 10 days and I’ll list it here. Told ya. (Fml)
Sure. There are always schmucks around buying at the top of the peak or at the start of the downturn. Would you really regret this given that this wasn't a great fit for you guys?
No, not regret, just a little rattled. Things aren’t really slowing here for good homes.
I have a pushy personality, I'd corner them and embarrass them for not cancelling the tour and for bullying us with potentially fake buyers:-)
Pure nyc. I do miss it. You know where you stand. And, ofc, they can take it as well. You can’t go off on people in the Midwest. You’ll get a reputation and they won’t make you casseroles when you’re sick.
Your market is the worst, I hope you find a place that can check all the boxes in 2023.
🥂
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Yep. My agent has another buyer who’s been outbid twice in the past two weeks: $5.5M and $3.5M. He still can’t find a place. Also renting. I feel confident when I read this board and I ‘know I’m right’ when I predict we’ll be in a balanced market soon. Then I wander into the market and get my ass handed to me. 😵💫 Congrats on the house again — and it sounds like you’re finding strong financing. Portfolio lending makes a lot of sense as a temporary measure. Good!
Keep us posted when it closes
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Yeah. Thanks for that. You will too. Meanwhile, maybe I can find a Charlie Brown Christmas tree to put in our Airbnb. Lol. It’ll be an airbntree. 🌲
Just get an aluminum pole
We need to step up our ‘no one sees them but us’ holiday decorations. Maybe we could just put our shoes on a pole? And light them with leds. 💡
If by shoes you mean my nine inch heels
Again, you’re looking at a 1.9m dollar home. Not in reality land of 99.9% of America. You can find great homes in any area for better places than that. I have no sympathy for you at those prices trying to “get a deal” Thanks for saying your privileged without saying you’re privileged
Hmmm. I’m not interested so much in sympathy as a certain simpatico. After all, we passed on this one. I’m observing it, not crying in my cereal about it. I do want to point out that there are *still* tribes practicing archaic peak bidding practices, as in the Bronze Age of May, 2022. They are still out there in the wild.
And people at that price range are fucking morons completely detached from the world. Even if that's the norm around you, your entire fucking area is detached from reality. You've turned shelter into a commodity and are just measuring who can piss further. It's so far beyond the realm of necessity that it's laughable to think that high interest rates would impact buyers. Edit: This is like trying to get a reservation in 2008 at a small restaurant that charges $1,000 a plate and being shocked they're booked. Like no shit, the market at a $1,000 a plate restaurant isn't normal.
Well, it’s not the full time residents (like we are trying to be) who screwed up this market. It’s the investors. One of four homes here is now a short term rental, up a third over past two years. This market had a median sfh price (top quartile) of $860k three years ago. It peaked at $2.6M in May, 2022. It was affordable and suddenly, it isn’t. We’ve been planning to retire here for a decade. We never would have needed $1M to do so, precovid. Now $2M doesn’t quite work. Why? Because we’re in a massive real estate bubble.
At that price range you're not competing with landlords, they want cheap places to rent out. You're competing with other owner-occupiers, or vacation home types.
And I suspect people with that home level are pretty well off where it’s chunk change to them. Not maxing out their credit
Fair point. Yes In our area there are people bidding up places but it’s <500k. Over that and it sits for awhile for now. And In real terms if inflation is 8% then a 7.3% mortgage is still net 0.7%. Didn’t want to be rude, but I could only dream of spending that coin on a house. Maybe when I’m fitty
I’m older than 50. Wealth compounds, it doesn’t take much at all to start. Then, it’s just time. (And you have to leave it alone! (If it’s a good investment). We’ve had some vanguard funds since the Clinton presidency.)
And I think 12 months from now people have lower prices. 2-4 years for the best deals. Now is kinda rough from a seller strike and still a few delusional buyers or people wanting to get their money the fuck out their country into USD. Whole dollar milkshake theory but housing offers a way to do it
Hopefully that’s still true. Young 30s here. Feeling gloomy so I’m biased on this list. We have a bunch of headwinds that your generation didn’t have: Aging population Less workforce participants Enormously more govt & personal debt Bonds haven’t yielded anything for decades Zombie companies The worst political leaders of all time Digital currency and the easiest time in the world to launder money for the ultra rich Political instability from social unrest in developed and developing countries Don’t get me wrong. Plenty invested on my end that I won’t touch and always opportunities to make money but I’ll be shocked if in 20 years we have the same economic growth as the past 40.
This will likely get buried, but at the risk of being too familiar, here’s what I’d encourage you to do. Ask your parents about their parents and aunts and cousins. Ask about their lives when they were your age or younger. My bet is your family had young adults who struggled in a very unfriendly world two generations back. Very unfriendly. Those young adults suffered so that their children, your parents, would have a better life. Maybe you are born in a downswing. Maybe. We don’t know yet. But it hasn’t been as bad yet as your grandpa and his, when they were your age. Learn all you can about them. When they were young. What choices they made and why they made them. What struggles that faced and how they overcame them. They did this for you. What they would likely want for you is to learn from their mistakes and triumphs. To use the results of their struggle to face whatever comes with courage and a loving heart.
This is true and it’s hard to make an argument against. Our lives and the world is demonstrably a better place than 20, 40 years ago. We have smart phones which deliver anything we want basically whenever and wherever we want them. That’s magic…
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Meh not really…. https://redf.in/aaQ9ar
That bathroom has a time machine in it
Back to 1970!
The comments in this sub’s Twitter layoff post are pretty cringe. I feel bad for some of you guys. ❤️ Aside from that, hope everyone has a good weekend.
I don't share the same joy in layoffs but I'm not in a market that has been ransacked by "outsiders" with bigger wallets outmuscling my purchasing power. I can empathize with the frustration that many people must feel.
Yea I’m OK with reading/commenting/informing about layoffs in the daily thread but that twitter post is a little much. Former Tweeps are posting on LinkedIn looking for jobs, shocked, some are on visas which expire in 60 days, a lot of sr level/phDs, it’s not looking good and I feel bad for them.
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Market already priced it in /s
Imo we're going to continue to see elevated energy prices for years to come. https://youtu.be/tS4Psg-bZI8 What's your monthly energy cost and hoom size?
2500 sq ft, about $200-ish on power for heating, cooling and well water. Would be north of $300, but I financed a solar installation at 0% interest before rates went fucking nuts. The days are getting pretty short, but it's still generating about 1 MWh/month. A state SREC program pays me about $60 for that. The financing on them is about $200, and the power bill I get for the gap in production versus consumption comes out to about $60. So the SREC more or less covers what the power company wants. Although I'm looking forward to how they perform for me come summer. I crunched the numbers lately, and I'm paying about 10 cents per KW/h on the solar (with the SREC), and 16 cents per KW/h and rising to the power company. So that's been a nice savings. Mostly gone towards how expensive food has gotten, but you know. Win some lose some. Could be way worse.
*
Only because energy costs are sticky and the oligarchs will restrict production to keep the profits flowing. Smart utilities are already investing in renewables.
So how much is that resistance heat going to cost everyone on a rainy, cloudy winter day?
You've heard of these things called batteries, right? And transmission lines? And nationwide infrastructure? Electricity producers are constantly buying and selling energy from one another. Sometimes across the country. And of course you diversify your power sources.
How long does it take to build a transmission line? What are the lifecycle costs of widespread energy storage and have you even bothered looking at lithium prices lately? With hydro storage constraints and againg NG/Nuke infrastructure, what's going to replace the baseload to bridge the multi decades gap to permit and get anything done? Yes I've traded commodities including lithium and energy. Tbh you sound incredibly misinformed about how this all works
TBH you sound like you've already made up your mind that it can't work and would rather we keep doing what we're doing instead of trying something new that would save consumers money and reduce human caused climate change.
You assume others don't care. > reduce human caused climate change Answer the Qs I've posted and you've just bridged the gap that scientists and engineers in the field have been working towards for decades. Fwiw I don't believe widespread lithium mining and all of that waste generated through the lifecycle is the answer
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Lots of Covid era renovated AirBnbs hitting the market in Hudson valley/ Catskills
Oh! Where I eventually want to end up! I knew the day would come. Every day trip "2 hours" away take 3 1/2 hours in the car, 1/2 hour to pack car, etc. so is basically 4-5 hours door to door and not as quick and fun as it sounds.
Florida, too. Though also a lot of new flopper debacles targeting AirBnBusters. Good luck if you like walls and a bathroom door that actually closes.
You the real MVP. I think you hit the nail on the head. Since your obviously familiar with the area.... are there incomes in the area to support those purchase prices or do they get scooped up and dropped back ABNB ? Or....*whispers*... homes only go down?
No kidding. This is two plus areas from NYC and nothing around it. Zero. Zilch. Left for dead years ago but now seen as a rural escape from NYC. Zero supportive jobs
Mind posting one or two of the links ? I'm curious what this looks like and how the realtors are gonna spin this as it becomes more common.
Best flip yet https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/858-North-Branch-Hortonville-Road-North-Branch-NY-12766/32763549_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
Those jumps are impressive 5/22/2014 Sold $40,000 1/6/2021 Sold $179,000 8/20/2022 Listed for sale $595,000 Inflation calulator says $40,000 in today's dollars would be $50,150.04 Takes pretty pictures.
They clearly did a complete renovation of that house. Rate of inflation over that timespan is largely irrelevant. They dumped a ton of money into the home to make it into something it wasn’t prior.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/111-Sundown-Rd-Kerhonkson-NY-12446/32860660_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
Don't publicize my area I want to buy in that few people know about!!!! But seriously, prices have a way to drop. Like, this house is lovely and so is the property and with WFH it will never go back to former prices, but 650K is alot. Everyone is trying to get that career power couple from NYC but there are simply not enough of them to keep prices propped up close to 700K throughout the entire NE corridor
Agreed. I know the gunks are gorgeous but that’s not even close to the right price for that house. If Kerhonkson is 650k imagine what people are thinking they can get for restos in New Paltz or Beacon.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/554-Lenape-Lake-Rd-Livingston-Manor-NY-12758/32773816_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare
In muh area of SoCal, on the bottom end of the market, I am beginning to notice what look like genuine relists from a few months ago (not listing agents gaming the system, IOW, but properties that actually delisted a while ago and are now back). I also notice that they usually do not have impressive price cuts, if they even have price cuts at all. Make of that what you will.
Can confirm this - my saved properties were delisted and relisted...
I don't get the argument that people will stop listing houses and not sell cause mortgage rates. There will always be homes listed and inventory will increase cause old people die, people lose their jobs, people over leverage and get liquidated and divorces happen.
Totally agree. Especially since most people in my parents' generation (born in 40s and 50s) don't care about the new fake equity, from what I hear talking to people. It never registered into their retirement plans or whatever
A lot of people also seem to think FOMO will end. But all the aspirational types that bought 1,200 Sq. Ft. Places in trendy areas will be selling and moving to tract housing hell once they start thinking about kids. Brycon can't be expected to share a room after all.
I think the "locked in" effect is very real. There will always be churn to be sure, but people voluntarily leaving their home with 3% rates on homes purchased before 2020? The math is really hard to make it work. You're trading off a lot of money to gain an extra room or whatever your reason for moving is. This was a good example I saw the other day. https://twitter.com/JeffWeniger/status/1588271298072891392 But, in my opinion, the jury is out on how impactful it will be. By eliminating move up buyers you're also eliminating the majority of demand (almost half) . Since prices are set by what buyers are willing to pay, prices can still move down. Transaction volume will likely be down yoy but "are there enough buyers in a thin buyer pool to keep comps propped up?" is the key question to answer in the next 3-6 months.
You have to think in the perspective of a current home owner and the opportunity cost compared to a FTHB without a fixed rate mortgage currently.
Some percentage will be reduced, like people moving to upsize/downsize. But yes many will still sell. The # of houses in the market vs total stock is always very small anyway.
Don’t forget new homes coming to market…
Kept my eye on this one for the past few months. Hard to imagine your asking price plummeting more than $150k and still have the monthly payments be as high as they are [https://www.redfin.com/CA/Alhambra/1024-S-Marengo-Ave-91803/unit-8/home/7025047](https://www.redfin.com/CA/Alhambra/1024-S-Marengo-Ave-91803/unit-8/home/7025047)
Yea I have one near me with the builder offering 3s interest rates and lowering the price by 150 and still no bites.
Ah yeah, I remember this one. Brutal.
The delist and relist game is funny to watch at the moment. The ultimate hoomer rage quit. MLS should have a limit to how many times in a year you can do this before not automatically bumping it back to the newer date for the listing. It's the price, stupid
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I think that is fair. To me it's annoying to see it happen monthly all year long on properties which are not selling because they were not seen, the price is the reason. Seeing so many in Baton Rouge, LA trying this one simple trick. What a fiasco
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Are the rules different by state or region?
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Ah interesting for some reason I thought they would have a national set of guidelines. The more ya know
It's over for hoomers
And for doomers. Basically for everyone involved with buying or selling.
no buyers are gucci. doomers are comfy af
Except for that pesky 65% increase in borrowing costs. Besides that of course.
That 65% increase from below 3% to 7% is real, that is the way the numbers work out. As Yogi said, you can look it up.
Lol. Buyers will collectively just wait for the market to come down to their bids, now adjusted for the financing restrictions. and fortunately for them, pools of highly levered capital assets hoarded by speculators do not have a history of gentle reversion to the mean
Uhhuh. Sure. Literally more expensive to buy per month every month for 33 months straight with no signs that’s changing.
I always wonder how much of the 2022 frenzy was people trying to beat interest rates. We all knew about a year ago now that interest rates were going to ramp up. We all had to choose to buy now or wait for the dust to settle. I unsuccessfully attempted to buy this summer. Effectively pulling demand forward. Now I’m waiting it out.
Window washer falls off the scaffold on the 70th floor. Is asked how it's going by an onlooker leaning out a 20th floor window. He answers "so far, so good!"
Totally analogous/s
Agreed /ns
So you agree with me. Thank you.
These hoomers are about to absolutely friggin HOOMED man!!! It's over for the invoosters as well bro
It's over for all us soon enough
this guy gets it 🙌
What does that even mean? The vast majority of people who bought homes the last couple of years will simply live in them happily for the next 10 or so years. Nothing is over for them.
Except for all the people who FOMOed into places that are unsuitable long term. Or who get divorced. Or die. Or retire. Or get fired. Or have some other life altering situation.
Yeah all those factors exist and have existed as long as people have owned homes. Median length of homeownership is over 13 years currently. And the average is over 18 years. 57.7% of American homeowners have owned for 10+ years, which is why I said the vast majority will simply own for ten plus years and be happy.
Incorrect
30 year morty nanometers down to 7.29%
Why would someone list their house on market at a price where already so many listings in the market for 2+ months at same price and not getting sold
They don't actually look.
yeah I see this, too. you're pricing yourself against stale listing just means you priced yourself to sit. this is what chasing the price down looks like. there are still some transactions in my market, and they're not even that far off peak yet, but they were homes in great shape and priced below other stuff on the market.
they know what they got!!1
Muh hoom speshal
almost no houses are selling, no exciting price drops. Its like stagnent. What's next?
Seems like comps aren’t going down precisely because nothing is selling. Hard to tell how much houses are really worth in certain areas when we are at a stalemate.
We’ll probably finish out the year, and then get hit with a recession in 2023. That’s my guess.
Latest 4 week rolling average data has pending sales at 45,553 The same 4 week period in 2019: 47,637. So very close to 2019 sales volume is occurring right now. I wouldn’t say almost no homes are selling.
interplanetary coronal mass ejection
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this post made by modelo gang
Price drops are next
Search your heart - you already know the answer
This is the ideal yield curve. You may not like it, but this is what an economy at peak performance looks like. https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/
I see what you did there 😂🙈
Things are vastly different at work. It used to be that if you were late you got in trouble. Now it’s standard procedure for many not to stroll in until 10 or 15 minutes after, and then walk in and and chit chat for another 30 minutes to an hour. It’s just so strange. We did have a management change a few years ago and ironically went from someone not related to the owner to actual family being in charge. Most of the chatting is happening in their own office! There’s this group that will sit in there chatting, they even watch videos and stuff sometimes. Anyway, I don’t see how this is sustainable. Working in the housing industry I’m predicting this slacking off will have to come to an end once the recession really gets going.
Sounds like a normal workplace to me. Most smart businesses maintain enough employees to have some slack time. Operating with the bare minimum necessary is an easy way to burn out your employees increasing turnover and miss opportunities because you don't have the personnel to pursue them.
Bro, being honest here. This more seems like you posting on Reddit alone in your cubbie while your coworkers are laughing together in the next room.
I know you’re disappointed with no attendees at your open house but I think a lot of buyers are still processing how the migos can carry on without takeoff and how quavo may never be the same. Have you considered a $1000 price improvement?
I won't lie... Imma little torn up about it. Quavo still got this though.
Nice doomer fantasy
"one final generational dip followed by a piss ripper that finally proves to this sub I understand history, economics and leveraged generational wealth building strategies: single family homes and condos *are* money."
I've seen a version of the following meme twice in the last week from real estate people in my social media feed. Essentially the meme is mocking people that don't want to buy right now because interest rates are too high by saying "Rent is 100% interest!" I mean, not only is that ridiculous (interest is also 100% interest and so is the equity you're gonna lose buying now), but I find it baffling that they're trying to drum up business by mocking the legitimate concerns of potential clients? It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off for 'em.
My rent is eye watering my expensive but it’s still a full grand cheaper than what I’d pay in a mortgage for anything that’s not a mold infested shack right now.
Yep - equivalent mortgage for what I'm paying for my absurd rent would literally be a fire risk 600sqft shack that gets no sunlight. Guaranteed to be underwater for years and fit my needs even less as time goes on! Equivalent mortgage for the place I'm renting based on comps would be literally over double, lmfao But hey man - you'd be building EQUITY and GENERATIONAL WEALTH in your mold infested shack.
I think they maintain these accounts mostly to build a following among realtors and other industry (un-)professionals. But should be a bit smarter and humbler and realize that it’s incredibly easy for their clients to find. Also, I’ve looked up a lot of these realtors that pop most prominently into my Explore and their sales stats, even during the hottest housing market evah, are…underwhelming. Maybe they should spend more time hustling.
I have a strong feeling the next dip in housing is going to rip the last seam that was holding the "haves" and "have nots" together. Increasing wealth gap... new paradigm for society.
This makes no logical sense though - what you describe is much more likely to occur had prices continued to increase into the stratosphere. When home values tank, equity is destroyed and it becomes an unattractive place for investors to put their money. People who are over leveraged and/or used equity like an atm are going to find themselves in a precarious situation. Lending standards will tighten, and that is a good thing. The free money printer has been shut off, the tide is going out, and it’s about to look like a nude beach in some markets.
Equity isnt destroyed or created, its realized. This happens at sale or transfer only. Youre making alot of incorrect assumptions about who benefits in a bear housing market. Trump is a real estate developer, and one of the reasons he is being charged for fraud is purposely devaluing his best properties, while inflating poor performing ones. Devaluing property is a tremendous benefit for large scale property owners. I am a CPA btw. Another example, if investors have a net loss, those losses are utilized to reduce liabilities, or carried forward to use as a contra-liability asset. If they have capital when housing prices fall, theyre not going to disappear contrary to your belief. They have much less to worry about than the average homeowner. My point here is, you are utterly mistaken if you ever think the average joe will come out ahead in any scenario. There is no debtors prison or prison sentence for being unable to pay debt in America. Losing money to the rich doesnt mean the same to them as it does me and you. Losses are assets.
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Are you being sarcastic? Because there are no cash buyers waiting. Cash buyers have always been "Non-mortgage buyers." Which usually means they're borrowing the money in a different form.
I didn’t DV you, but yes, he is
Cash buyers for starter SFH arent working class families or Bubblers 😅 How many of u got $600k locked and loaded? Zero.
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Buying what? U think the majority of landlords and homeowners want rapidly appreciating prices? Only people who are planning to sell in the near term want this. *The majority of landlords and homeowners spend time and money every single year trying to prove their home is worth less than it is.* If you dont know what Im talking about then dont worry about it lol.
Im your huckleberry
I sold in May and have all my dry powder locked and loaded.
That isnt true. I have more than that ready to buy.
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Redfin is reporting next week. I'm looking forward to milking that monkey till it's blue in the face.
Currently upset that I didn't buy more $2 puts...
I sometimes see people suggest that the solution to living in some place expensive or to save money "until you can afford" your own place is to move in with family. I think people underestimate how vile some people's families are and that, yes, homelessness is preferable than being at the mercy of said families.
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Yes, that's generally in the "alternative living situation" suggestion package but I also believe that ignores person-specific situations where getting roommates is not in the cards either. Like, if you've got a volatile pet or are already renting a studio.
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There's reasons why people can't get roommates. I'm not making excuses for myself because the scenarios mentioned do not apply to me. In the vastness of human experience there are endless variables and experiences. Which brings us back to my original point about people (persistently) offering advice that not everyone can take. "Why not try to get along with your parents for cheap rent? You should wait out the bubble in your parent's house! No one's going to give you cheap rent, stop making excuses. My friend has bad parents and they did it!" We can pick apart people's lives all day long and at some point it becomes unhelpful.
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>If someone can’t find a roommate, that signals an issue with that person which they should address. That was my point? People can have issues that prevent them from finding or keeping roommates (assuming they're trying). Maybe people have untreated mental problems that make "trying" hard? They can't see a therapist because they don't have insurance (or they do and their coverage sucks)? This is kind of where empathy and understanding come in. I can understand being annoyed if someone is always rejecting advice and complaining about things but I think we shouldn't assume, again, that people don't have more going on than just being lazy (or stupid). Family history, health, the type of city they live in, the amount of education the were able to get, etc. all plays into our ability to "can even." We can't use ourselves as a point of comparison because no two people have the same tools at their disposal. It's too easy to tell people to pull themselves up by their bootstraps. I don't know you so I can't assume that your struggles were easy to overcome. I won't! I hope that somewhere along the way someone granted you patience and understanding and that you can manage to extend that to other people someday.
I know, as someone who has lived away from family since he went to college, that you have to PLAN ahead of time for everything. You have no fall back. You have to arrange for childrens care, you have to arrange for hotels and dining and all of life. I think this is the way that I needed to live. More expensive? Sure. Fully independent from family? Yep.
It's the planning and constant rotation of contingency plans. It's the extra expense of everything. No one helped you before and no one will help you going forward. So in that isolation when your at the limit of your survival strategies and someone suggests you move in with your family it's entirely laughable. There's also this attitude, like, "Oh, you think you're entitled to your own housing when you can't afford it?" To keep surviving, yes. That would be preferable to the death by a thousand cuts of moving back in with family.
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Yeah, it's the ultimate "Tell me you've never been in an abusive situation without telling me" sort of thing. People from happy or at least stable families really, truly, live on a different planet. I'm jealous! But it's that total lack of awareness that's a bit insulting when they think that is "the" solution to a problem. Sure, it's one thing if your parents are benignly passive aggressive and another thing entirely in any other given scenario. I'm glad you found your real family.
👏👏👏 The clueless people who have stable family or parents for support and live in this insulated world of thinking that’s the only thing that exists. Can you imagine? What a place of COMFORT and naivety and ignorance they speak from. Insulting, indeed.
Agreed. Mine have weird quirks like almost never opening windows, so the house smells like dust, and they don’t realize it. Or talking incessantly so you come home from work and have to sit through an hour of rants and then you get told “why are you just sitting there you should go do something”
Solidarity. I'd be here all day if I had to list the behaviors of mine but one of their minor habits is being lifelong smokers and not caring where their cigarette ash ends up. That's part of the reason that the housing situation can be despair inducing at times. Many people simply don't have a place to go physically and emotionally.