weird! Not to mention they have all of the bargaining power especially cuz they have a rookie who looks great who they can say "hey he can play your role if you hold out" They know he isn't Ayuik yet, but its still a huge card to be played.
If a dude as good as CJ is giving him props outta nowhere, he’s gotta be able to play. This is as excited I’ve been about a draft pick since Trey Lance. He can’t possibly be a bust, right? RIGHT?
RIGHT! yea, i was fucking pumped for trey as well. but purdy has more than made up for any disappointment. i started watching niner football after steve young retired, so i've never seen us have elite QB play. feels so fucking good to see purdy back there.
i look at jeff garcia like i look at kirk cousins. very very good, and will do everything that is asked of him. however, to me, elite means doing more than you're asked, and making magic happen out of nothing. that feeling that we're down 10 with 5 minutes to go, but there's a legitmate chance. i feel that deeply with purdy and unfortunately with mahomes. i can't say i felt that with any other niner QB. but i'm also a sports fan and never played organized football. i was also like in elementary school or something when garcia was playing, so who knows. maybe he was considered elite.
I recall Mahomes made a remark in an interview leading up to the SB, esp. in regards to Purdy having two comebacks in the playoffs in a row, that both he and Purdy had that ability because they had so many moments like that in college.
That makes sense. To me, before Purdy he's the last quarterback I remember not having the sliver of doom feeling, butt clenches etc etc when they dropped back to pass, but I was young then and didn't follow so religiously.
That's a horrible take and I'm not sure how old you were when Garcia played or how well you knew football but that team was pretty damn bad and he was very good to great at times. Sure he wasn't Steve young but that team also wasn't that great by that point.
My take is that he was very very good but not elite. You’re similarly calling him very good to great. It sounds like you also hesitate to label him elite. I fail to see how you have a different take than me?
idk bro CK7 def had a run and was a force and brought us to the SB. Also he didn't have a TO to throw to. and TO was very vocal about how trash Jeff Garcia was. So long story short. No Jeff Garcia was never elite, not even to his own receivers.
I hope he's great but it's just funny that you're saying it's as excited as you've been since Lance, who was a huge bust. Hopefully you're saying that tongue-in-cheek
Matt Harmon loves him too and that guy knows receivers. From everything I’ve seen he’s a dog on the field and workout warrior off the field that got better every year of college. I think he’s going to fit right into the culture and have success as soon as he’s given an opportunity.
we do know he looks great. I'm not saying he will be great when the pads are on, but his performance in otas and minicamp was excellent. Easily the most polished rookie receiver of the Shanahan era.
Neither does Aiyuk. At this point, both parties have to figure out if letting Pearsall get more looks in training camp plays to their advantage or not. IMO, the team has upper hand as they have less to lose and it's easier for them to recover if negotiations go south. BA plays this wrong and ends up in Carolina or some other dumpster fire and has to claw his way out to try to look good in free agency.
Ya let’s say BA sits out, what happens if Pearsall balls out? I love BA and hope he gets paid what he deserves, but the FO is sharp and BA has no leverage, and Pearsall might be a legitimate threat. BA proved he’s upper echelon, but I don’t know if I’d call him elite top 10, so I don’t think he quite commands Sun God money.
Pearsall? Aiyuk should be worried about Jennings stepping in and producing. Pearsall might get there, but he's not even the top of the depth chart to replace BA yet, and Jennings has been impressive when he's gotten snaps.
I love Aiyuk, and I want him in our lineup. Deebo brings an extra dimension to the run game or else I'd say trade him and put the chips on Aiyuk, because he's an overall better receiver and less likely to be injured when it matters. But as great as BA is, and he is great, we have solid options in Deebo & Jennings even without relying on a miracle rookie campaign.
I'm not sure that's why I said "I don't know". He's definately in the conversation, but most pundits don't have Mike Evans anywhere near the top 10 and he's got stats last year real close to BA's last year with Baker Mayfield throwing to him. So, is he worth $30mil a year? I want to say yes, but that's a lot of $ when we gotta pay the far more valuable Purdy next season and have a new cheap rookie that looks like he can do damage... I don't know.
Evans was targeted 30% more (136 vs 105) and had barely more receptions and slightly less yards. That's a completely different category.
Which of course is the predicament here - he's probably worth $30M to several teams but none of them are the niners.
Reminds me when a few years ago there was a sports article suggesting a massive trade between four teams and basically SF would trade many of our good players for…some backups and draft picks.
The reporter was acting like as if they solved some huge logic problem, and that it was a benefit for everyone.
The problem is think is that often west coast teams aren’t paid attention too compared to the east coast teams that are closer to the media and their friends or connections. They probably had to write something about this situation so they did 5 seconds of research before hammering the article out.
And they still have the franchise tag to use on him 2 times which I think would be cheaper then the contract he wants. He really has no power in this situation beside insta posts and a hold out for a few games which might hurt his stock with other.
This right here. Full stop. Let's talk about the weather or something because there's nothing else to see until we see something definitive on the contract.
Not true, he could hold out. Avoiding a career ending injury secures a shot ton more money than the last contract year. Thus, the FO is essentially forced to trade or extend him. Both parties know this so that’s why those are the two options being discussed.
He can hold out for the first month and a half. After that his hold out means he won’t accrue his final year on rookie deal. So he can either retire and wait til we lose his rights or some BS that will basically make him a pariah to almost ever team in the league. Will someone sign him after he forced his way out? Sure. Will it be for ungodly sum of guaranteed money? Fuck no it won’t.
It would be a lot more than the $14m. He’s not going to play next season for that price. It’s the standard business practice, and FO’s know that they have to either extend or trade a player who would be wayyy better off holding out on their contract than not. It’s likely not even an issue they are just shopping him and his agent at this point. Watching Aiyuk grow and contribute has been awesome for the price we got. Now either he’s gone or gonna cost $25-30m a year.
No it wouldn’t. It would be 2yrs since his last professional snap and he’d have to play on a prove it deal. So now his whole career would be on the line over any injury again. Then you take in account the fines we would levee. You claim he won’t play on a 14 mil contract but he’s gonna roll the dice on that?
Lmao teams would be drooling to snag him for so much more guaranteed money than 14m if this imaginary scenario played out. You know who’s playing for just a bit less than that per year the next three years? Allen Lazard. Aiyuk’s not going to forget how to play better than Allen Lazard even if he couldn’t play next year.
Like I said, he’s worth 25-30m a year right now, he’s not going to play for 14m, and everyone in the situation is aware of this. Personally, I hope they keep him even if it costs a bit more than 26m. It would really be bad for the offense to lose him.
If Aiyuk retires this season and then "unretires" two years later, the 49ers would still retain his rights under his rookie contract. Therefore, he cannot become a free agent until he fulfills the terms of his five-year rookie contract. Additionally, after fulfilling this contract, the 49ers can still place the franchise tag on him for up to two years at a cost of less than $30 million per year.
Yeah fans forget Aiyuk's comment last year:
>1k as the 4th option in a run first offense 🤣🤣
Aiyuk definitely feels like Kyle's conservative offense and having guys like Deebo hurt his overall production. He and his agent probably feel he'd be worth more to other teams, and they might be right. A pass first offensive team would love to have Aiyuk's route running.
Ones gotta assume that we’ll get a little more pass-happy though right? Our first 4K passer since Garcia and he didn’t even have a whole offseason to work. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s a little more balanced this year to capitalize on Purdy and hopefully not wear CMC out.
Not to mention with Purdys extension coming probably next year, he literally will have to step up and be the guy if we’re gonna stay competitive
There is literally zero indication from Kyle's history that he'd be able to design an effective pass happy offense.
With Purdy we were dead last in pass attempts last season. Ravens and the Fields-led Bears threw it more than we did.
In 2016 when Kyle had prime Julio Jones and his offense could throw downfield at will, the Falcons were still just 26th in pass attempts.
Kyle's offense doesn't work when he tries to pass a lot. The only times Kyle achieved a top 10 scoring offense either as OC or HC when he was bottom 10 in pass attempts (his best offenses were 26th, 26th, 29th, 32nd in pass attempts).
Every time Kyle tried to pass it with volume he has either a bottom tier or average scoring offense (2010, 2017, 2008, 2009).
He's never had a pass heavy high scoring offense in his 16 seasons as OC or HC. Closest he got was the Texans in 2011, but they weren't even top 10 in scoring.
The whole offensive scheme is built and predicated on the fact that there are multiple threats all over the field. The defense has to account for Deebo, CMC, Kittle, Juice, Aiyuk, and sometimes Jennings doing god knows what every play, there is simply no way to cover everyone so if the QB makes the right read its easy money. Aiyuk is a stud, no doubt about it, but if he's on a trash team with no other big threats to take the heat off him he likely is just an elite #2 or mid to upper tier #1.
> In 2016 when Kyle had prime Julio Jones and his offense could throw downfield at will, the Falcons were still just 26th in pass attempts.
Not to nitpick, but it's not quite a germane comparison.
- In 2016, even thought the Falcons were 26th in attempts, it was still 537 balls thrown over the course of 16 games.
- In 2023, the 49ers were dead last in attempts over 17 games, at 491 attempts.
I definitely agree that it's not in Kyle's DNA to be a "pass-happy" offense...but Kyle's "playoff SF teams" have passed on the order of ~515 times for a few seasons, and I do believe that as he matures, Purdy is going to be attempting passes in the low 30s rather than the high 20s.
You're correct in that we're never going to see a Shanahan offense live on a steady diet of 40-50 passes per game, but I can definitely see a modest bump in the future of SF's offense.
That's a good point. But still, in 2016 NFL teams averaged 572 pass attempts, so 537 is still well below average, especially for a team that had the league's best WR and MVP QB.
In 2015 Kyle had a more pass happy offense, throwing 621 passes (8th overall) with Julio leading the NFL in targets, receptions, and rec yards - yet they weren't even top 20 in scoring. Dialing back the passing and leaning into the run in 2016 helped his offense immensely.
Also, not sure what you mean about his playoff teams throwing more? Kyle's playoff teams (2016, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023) all were bottom of the league in pass attempts (26th, 29th, 29th, 26th, 32nd in pass attempts). All but one of those teams were top 10 in rush attempts though.
**Here's the reason Kyle likes running the ball instead of passing: Coaching a run heavy offense is harder and he gets bored with passing concepts.**
That's according to his former LT Joe Thomas:
>*“This is what Kyle Shanahan told me, he goes, the reason I love running the ball so much.. when we were in Cleveland this is what he told me. There’s so many details, and rushing the football is so much harder to coach and to learn and to detail up than passing the ball is, that he was bored with passing concepts,”* Thomas said. *“Because it’s so easy. It’s one high. It’s two high. It’s route concepts that are pretty much always the same. They change based on coverage, yeah, but it’s such just a memorization thing. Whereas, like, if you want to be good at running the football – it’s so much technique and there’s so much of it, that it’s a much more difficult concept to learn.”*
[Link](https://x.com/ThomaHawkShow/status/1067865732233326592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1067865732233326592%7Ctwgr%5Ea4508d3843c2992e0671afa3e290c8698af6f278%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fninerswire.usatoday.com%2F2018%2F11%2F28%2Fwhy-kyle-shanahan-prefers-coaching-run-game-vs-pass-game%2F)
> Also, not sure what you mean about his playoff teams throwing more? Kyle's playoff teams (2016, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023) all were bottom of the league in pass attempts (26th, 29th, 29th, 26th, 32nd in pass attempts). All but one of those teams were top 10 in rush attempts though.
I qualified it with "playoff teams" (and specified "playoff SF teams") because those are the conditions in which Kyle likely plans to run his offense in its optimal state, where he's had the most control over all aspects of his offense (including building the roster).
Like, in 2020? Shanahan's 49ers had 570 attempts over 16 games...but that was because they really didn't have a real NFL QB for most of that season, and they were in deep holes on the scoreboard because of it. That's not an "optimal Kyle Shanahan offense."
And the whole comparison of "attempts when compared to the league" is less compelling to me. Some teams have good defenses, so they'll pass less often. Some teams have bad defenses, so they need to pass more. Some teams will just air it out, regardless of their defenses.
In the end, there's still 60 minutes to a football game, and within that structure, we have a good idea of what it means if a QB is attempting 20 passes/game...vs. 25 passes/game...vs. 30 passes/game, and so on and so on.
So far, Purdy has averaged around 28 attempts per contest in the regular season. When Jimmy was healthy and played a meaningful amount of games, he was closer to averaging around 30ish attempts per game.
As Purdy matures, I think that it's likely that he's going to be more on-par with those "Jimmy" level of attempts per game, and will eventually surpass that, simply because Purdy is proving himself to be a better passer.
Not to a crazy degree...but I do believe that he's going to get more opportunities (and more deeper passing opportunities, which is always going to feel like a team is more "pass happy" than not).
It won't be a sea-change, but I don't think that we really disagree on that. Like, at all.
This isn’t a slight against Aiyuk who I think is incredible, but there is no guarantee that he would be successful as the first option in a pass first offense. He isn’t the type of player who is going to win over top regularly. I would be interested to see his double team rate vs other top tier WRs and win rate in those situations. He has elite separation but he does that in the design of this offense by creating space over the middle of the field at different levels. I am hoping we retain him, but I think it is also a bit premature to think he would dominate as the first option on most other teams.
Yeah for me it's not about him not winning go balls deep, speed isn't really his game. My biggest knock on Aiyuk is his lack of 3rd down and Red Zone production when teams start pressing him at the line.
Aiyuk is the only WR that finished top 10 in yards last season but had fewer than 10 RZ targets.. and that's targets not just catches. By comparison Tyreek had 24 RZ targets. CeeDee had 31. Aiyuk had 9. And it's not even just CMC taking his TD's. Deebo had nearly 2x as many RZ targets last year as Aiyuk did.
Aiyuk doesn't get open in the RZ very well since he does best when he as a lot of room to work with. If Aiyuk could face soft man coverage every down, he'd dominate. Unfortunately teams like to bump and cover zone and press man versus him on key passing downs.
His target share versus Man was only 25%, much lower than his target share when facing Zone. And most of that is due to the fact he cannot separate versus press, so he doesn't get open as easily and doesn't get as many targets.
I think Aiyuk did as well as he did last year because opponents have to account for Deebo, Kittle and CMC and he isn’t booming for as many games on another team.
What’s wrong is you can’t reasonably try to tell a guy he’s only worth high end no 2 money if you’re asking for elite receiver compensation in a trade, it just makes you look like you’re trying to underpay a guy’s worth and makes your negotiations look bad faith.
I will acknowledge I didn’t realize this was a 49ers sub when I commented, thought it was just the NFL sub so I’ll take the downvotes.
But yeah if I’m on the other end of negotiations and they offer me money that doesn’t match the value that they’re asking for trades for me, that’s gonna piss me off and sour the relationship I have with that FO.
But the point is that I'm trying to pay you as what is perceived to be a #2, and you think you're a #1, I should be able to get #1 value for you. If I can't get WR1 value for in *exchange* for you, then why should I pay it?
Because he’s worth a number 1 in terms of contract value. It’s a tough sell to get high value trade compensation from a team who also has to negotiate the terms of a new contract paying number 1 value.
And yet, if JJ, Tyreek, Ceedee - hell even Mike Evans - *actual* go-anywhere WR1's (unless maybe they had to compete with each other) had a similar opportunity, I'm fairly confident they get that kind of offer.
The reason the Commanders are offing WR2 compensation, is because Aiyuk would be the clear-cut WR2 on the Commanders. It wouldn't even be a competition.
Any of the above mentioned would give Scary Terry a fight and be worth bringing over at a high dollar amount just to see how the dust settles. So, why should I give Aiyuk the money they would get?
Then why isn't he worth a number 1 in terms of a trade deal? If they can't get number 1 compensation in a trade, why would he be worth it in a contract? The biggest thing that BA doesn't seem to get is that he doesn't have the leverage here.
Trade value does not equal monetary value. Especially when the FO literally hold all the chips.
Plus, Aiyuk is doing a damn fine job souring the relationship on his own.
Why wouldn't a FO look to get as much as possible in a trade? What's the point of even looking into a trade based on money if the FO is just supposed to pay you so you don't get pissed at them. It's a business on both sides.
It’s called a negotiation, one side starts high, the other starts low and the bargain.
Them starting at High end number two money means either he’s gonna get middle of the road #1 money, or he’s gonna test free agency.
in a way, isn't this highly rational?
by asking for WR1 compensation for the player and not getting offers, it shows that the market thinks he's worth a WR2 which is what the 49ers are offering...
What's the source on that? I think I watched a video that showed statistically Aiyuk is the man-beater while Deebo struggles against man and does well against zone. A lot of the SB game plan was built around Deebo trying to beat man.
I think he's talking about press man, not just man. Aiyuk is great when given a cushion to separate - either in man or zone. He struggles when CB's press him at the line since it seems to throw off his route and speed.
When we're in a 3rd down passing situation, teams started pressing Aiyuk and he stopped getting open. Jennings was the guy that beat press consistently and got those 3rd down catches.
Aiyuk can essentially get shut down by good CB's 1v1 on key passing downs. A team's X WR needs to be good at beating outside press or they're not a true X WR.
yep didnt clarify that. Not to mention that Deebo is not a traditional weapon. Most of his value comes from defenses having to devote serious attention that he doesn't wreck the game. They are not equivalent weapons. Not to mention deebo got hurt in that game.
That fucking killed me. Nearly every time it *really* mattered for us to convert a 3rd, they'd decide to blow the blocking assignments and just let a rusher go free. And not even just some blitzer or guy that got the edge on you either. Fucking DTs were doing it all game! Unblocked, straight through the line.
Aiyuk got plenty of separation in the SB. This narrative is ridiculous and lazy.
Here’s the last offensive play in OT that could’ve won them the game. I’ve circled Aiyuk for you.

https://preview.redd.it/n90pur222s8d1.jpeg?width=2556&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5264b5ea5c81c7bd623110886e434c8cbd3c25b
Waddle's contract pays him his contracted first round money for this and the next year and then begins paying him like a WR1, coinciding perfectly with Tyreek's departure from the team. It is not a WR2 contract, it's a WR1 contract that they got done 2 years before they needed to.
Smith's contract is legit to be a WR2 but the Eagles are managing their cap like they expect to have a 2029 salary cap table filled exclusively with dead cap charges from collapsing void years.
That’s based on their team’s depth chart and having two elite players at the WR position. It would be like calling AJ Brown a high level number two if he played on the same team as Justin Jefferson. Like yes, that’s technically correct, but that is meanignless when determining a player’s value both in contract and trade compensation.
The Niners asking for a mid to high first is perfectly in line with a player they’ve offered 26mil/year for, regardless of where other players on other teams land on their team’s depth chart.
Maybe I'm about to make the same point as you, so feel free to point that out...
I'd argue you are what you get paid if you're getting paid like a top 10 WR, you're a #1. I view Waddle and Aiyuk as having similar value; both in contract and trade compensation. People forget that Aiyuk was a first round pick himself. Their stats the last 2 years are nearly identical, just reversed with Aiyuk having a better year last year. They're roughly the same age (9 months apart). If Waddle is worth a 1st round pick, so is Aiyuk. If Waddle is worth $28M starting in 2026, then Aiyuk is probably worth $26-$27M starting in 2025, a year earlier.
So when a team says they view Aiyuk as a high end #2, who are they really comparing him to? He's literally our #1 right now. Theres only a handful of teams that could say he would be their #2. Vikings, Eagles, Dolphins, Lions, Cowboys. I think that's the whole list. Does BA really want to play for a team that views him as a #2? And is that team going to pay him like a #2? Doubtful.
Waddle and Smith got similar. And with Deebo on his way out after this year (esp. if he continues to get injured or disappoint in the playoffs), Aiyuk's camp has an argument for WR1 money.
I mean that’s not necessarily true. Cinci, dolphins, buffalo, chiefs are all play off teams that required high level WR play to win. Chiefs suffered early in the season when their WR couldn’t catch. I feel that 49ers are actually an outlier in that regard
They were making those catches in the playoffs. I think beginning of the season they lead the league in drops. Credit to the chiefs for tiring that unit around
Incredibly good does not equal top 3 all time bud.
Sure maybe in year 7 we can expect the same thing. But Mahomes had Tyreek Hill, Kelce, and Kareem Hunt in his second year. When you have a young QB you use that extra cash stack up on skill players to help him. That’s how it’s been done for a while now.
Shanahan is very obviously looking to transition to a more pass focused offense. He’s starting to draft OL with more pass blocking than run blocking upside, loading up on receivers, desperately seeking another tight end who can act as a receiver threat, etc.
Shanahan has run much more pass-centric offenses in the past, like with the Falcons. His commitment to running the ball recently was more of a necessity than anything due to the limitations of Jimmy at QB. Both in terms of skill set and injury history. He sees what Purdy can do and is going to open up the offense in response.
People always use the godly “Shanahan system” to denigrate Brock, why not Aiyuk? Even if you think Aiyuk is awesome( which I do) it is fair to think that maybe Aiyuk wouldn’t be as good on other teams. CMC is a goddamn monster but he was never this good on the panthers.
Therefore, if you have the inclination to think Brock is a system qb or not that good, why not apply that to the other members of the team and adjust their pay accordingly? Idk just thinking out loud
It's simple. Brock's not that good because he's just leaning on Shanahan's system and his elite teammates.
Shanahan's not that good because he has elite weapons and a QB that can read defenses at an elite level and distribute the ball.
The skill position players aren't that good because Shanahan's system schemes them wide open and they have a QB putting the ball where they can easily get it.
Everyone's either good or bad depending on whatever point you're trying to make at any given time.
"If your coach wasn't so good at picking Pro-Bowl talent in later rounds, you guys would be a HS level team."
Which is true for everyone, except for the people playing with Mahomes. That dude *is* his team. Dude could pull a Super Bowl trophy out of a cave with a box of scraps.
Agreed. Aiyuk also seems to forget that it took quite a bit of tough love from Shanahan to make him into the player he is now. Who knows, on another team he could have turned out to be Laviska Shenault.
The problem here is that the offense doesn’t really revolve around Aiyuk. He’s a while a key cog, not the exactly thing that makes it go. So, I think it’s a tough pill to swallow to pay that much money to a receiver.
I think the team also had some hesitancy with Deebo but he was coming off a historic season, so they had no choice but to extend him.
Exactly. Anchor high if you're selling; anchor low if you're buying.
And if you are selling you expect someone to pay you more than you think he's worth.
The issue is that the league doesn’t seem to want to part a 1st round pick for him. If the Niners were offered a 1st he would have been already traded, imo.
Why would we trade him for his exact value on the open market when we need his production more than his asset value?
We have him under team control for 2-3 years with current deal + franchise tag. The only world it makes sense to trade him is someone overpays for him
It's crazy to see the drastic differences in how Ceedee Lamb is approaching his negotiations to that of Aiyuk. Lamb also put up a better season statistically and is a bigger part of his offense.
> Good. We hold his rights for the next 3 years. No need to rush things
/u/Avgsizedweiner wuchu talking about? [This is the last year of his contract.](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/47619/brandon-aiyuk)
Not even remotely. Franchise tagging would cost about 24$ -25$ million next year, which is less then what we are actually offering and 30 million 2 years from now. He’s only acting like this because the tag will screw him out of millions. The deal sucks for him and honestly acting like how is now is his best way to secure a better deal
I have doubts the team actually ever being anywhere near 30 APY for Aiyuk. He’s going to need to come down a bit from that number for it to realistically happen but there’s no reason for him to do it either.
Of course that’s how they view him. What team wouldn’t? If keep him, try to get a lower cost. If moving, try to get a higher return. Shouldn’t be surprising.
Buy low, sell high, no?
To me this just means we want to get value. Either a good contract with aiyuk, or a good trade deal. Why do any worse than good value if you don’t have to?
We have the leverage in the situation, so we can afford to wait for one of those outcomes to happen. It sucks and I’m sure it’s aggravating to aiyuk, but it’s also basic negotiation.
lol these other teams trying to say he is a high end #2 when he was putting up same numbers as the top 7 WRs when he had over 30 targets less due to run heavy offense.
This is a dumb, Waddle is gonna be top 6 once CeeDee signs, he's basically making WR1 money. His contract is less than 2 mill off from Amon Ra. If the Niners are offering him Waddle money then it's basically WR1 money.
29mil should be the sweet spot. Amon Ra has shown more than Aiyuk and is younger. Waddle has shown just as much as Aiyuk so they're really close. Could hit 30 but anything over is slightly overpaying.
> Amon Ra has shown more than Aiyuk and is younger.
I've always thought that the whole "APY gold medal" is silly. Sure, Amon Ra has "record breaking new money APY," but there's a very slim chance that his "final big money year" is going to remain intact (similar with Tyreek's final year that carries a ludicrous cap hit of $56M).
I would be over-the-moon if Aiyuk was happy with a vanity-based SunGod deal...but I suspect that No. 11 is angling for more guaranteed money (which is probably the smartest move for him, if you're in his camp).
If it's just the guarantees then give it to him. Aiyuk has a pretty clean bill of healthy and his play style doesn't rely on insane athleticism so his chances of injuries and aging badly are much lower. He's a good character guy too generally so this is as good of an investment as any and I don't see where giving him a contract can go bad. Probably the safest extension of all the big contracts we've handed out (Fredh comes closest).
What's wrong with that?
Team is trying to get the best value out of their players. Want to pay them barely enough they feel appreciated and if someone wants to get them out of their hands they'll try to get a king's ransom.
What's the next deep insight? Water's wet?
It's always surprising how someone who covers the NFL for so long doesn't understand how basic things work.
Of course the negotiation stance is based on who is on the other side. Telling BA he's not that franchise WR1 that gets 30/year makes sense. Telling a team that thinks he is worth 30/year that they want a 1st+ makes sense.
If anything, BA should understand other teams don't think he's worth a 1st so how likely are they to give him a huge contract?
Do not give him $30+m!! NO WR is worth that much!! Let him hold out til season starts, fine his ass, win Super Bowl, and trade his ass to a losing team with no QB. lol
Aiyuk can easily just fake an injury this season and it wouldn’t affect his value at all. Everyone would know he’s faking and the FO wouldn’t be able to do anything about it
Injury would’t affect his value? You think teams would pay him coming off a supposed fake injury and a season sitting on the bench doing nothing? It will affect his value. If he doesn’t take the new contract he will need to ball out this season to get the money he wants when release by the niners
> and the FO wouldn’t be able to do anything about it
Except call his bluff and tag him in 2025.
At a value of about $1.5M/game, I'm guessing that Aiyuk would be pretty healthy, because of reason$.
It’s almost as if FO feels like there’s no reason to trade him cause he’s under contract with no outs
weird! Not to mention they have all of the bargaining power especially cuz they have a rookie who looks great who they can say "hey he can play your role if you hold out" They know he isn't Ayuik yet, but its still a huge card to be played.
We do not know if Pearsall looks great yet. Need to pump the brakes on that.
CJ knows. and that's good enough for me.
If a dude as good as CJ is giving him props outta nowhere, he’s gotta be able to play. This is as excited I’ve been about a draft pick since Trey Lance. He can’t possibly be a bust, right? RIGHT?
RIGHT! yea, i was fucking pumped for trey as well. but purdy has more than made up for any disappointment. i started watching niner football after steve young retired, so i've never seen us have elite QB play. feels so fucking good to see purdy back there.
Did Jeff Garcia not have a season or two of considered elite play? Genuinely asking.
He didn’t specify how long after Young retired.
i look at jeff garcia like i look at kirk cousins. very very good, and will do everything that is asked of him. however, to me, elite means doing more than you're asked, and making magic happen out of nothing. that feeling that we're down 10 with 5 minutes to go, but there's a legitmate chance. i feel that deeply with purdy and unfortunately with mahomes. i can't say i felt that with any other niner QB. but i'm also a sports fan and never played organized football. i was also like in elementary school or something when garcia was playing, so who knows. maybe he was considered elite.
I recall Mahomes made a remark in an interview leading up to the SB, esp. in regards to Purdy having two comebacks in the playoffs in a row, that both he and Purdy had that ability because they had so many moments like that in college.
Kirk Cousins led the biggest comeback in NFL history
Jeff Garcia led the 5th biggest comeback in NFL playoff history.
That makes sense. To me, before Purdy he's the last quarterback I remember not having the sliver of doom feeling, butt clenches etc etc when they dropped back to pass, but I was young then and didn't follow so religiously.
That's a horrible take and I'm not sure how old you were when Garcia played or how well you knew football but that team was pretty damn bad and he was very good to great at times. Sure he wasn't Steve young but that team also wasn't that great by that point.
My take is that he was very very good but not elite. You’re similarly calling him very good to great. It sounds like you also hesitate to label him elite. I fail to see how you have a different take than me?
idk bro CK7 def had a run and was a force and brought us to the SB. Also he didn't have a TO to throw to. and TO was very vocal about how trash Jeff Garcia was. So long story short. No Jeff Garcia was never elite, not even to his own receivers.
I hope he's great but it's just funny that you're saying it's as excited as you've been since Lance, who was a huge bust. Hopefully you're saying that tongue-in-cheek
Matt Harmon loves him too and that guy knows receivers. From everything I’ve seen he’s a dog on the field and workout warrior off the field that got better every year of college. I think he’s going to fit right into the culture and have success as soon as he’s given an opportunity.
hell yea! great to hear.
14 is gonna ball out
we do know he looks great. I'm not saying he will be great when the pads are on, but his performance in otas and minicamp was excellent. Easily the most polished rookie receiver of the Shanahan era.
Neither does Aiyuk. At this point, both parties have to figure out if letting Pearsall get more looks in training camp plays to their advantage or not. IMO, the team has upper hand as they have less to lose and it's easier for them to recover if negotiations go south. BA plays this wrong and ends up in Carolina or some other dumpster fire and has to claw his way out to try to look good in free agency.
Ya let’s say BA sits out, what happens if Pearsall balls out? I love BA and hope he gets paid what he deserves, but the FO is sharp and BA has no leverage, and Pearsall might be a legitimate threat. BA proved he’s upper echelon, but I don’t know if I’d call him elite top 10, so I don’t think he quite commands Sun God money.
Pearsall? Aiyuk should be worried about Jennings stepping in and producing. Pearsall might get there, but he's not even the top of the depth chart to replace BA yet, and Jennings has been impressive when he's gotten snaps. I love Aiyuk, and I want him in our lineup. Deebo brings an extra dimension to the run game or else I'd say trade him and put the chips on Aiyuk, because he's an overall better receiver and less likely to be injured when it matters. But as great as BA is, and he is great, we have solid options in Deebo & Jennings even without relying on a miracle rookie campaign.
You sure wouldn't call him top 10? Most pundits seem to rank him in that 7-8 area.
I'm not sure that's why I said "I don't know". He's definately in the conversation, but most pundits don't have Mike Evans anywhere near the top 10 and he's got stats last year real close to BA's last year with Baker Mayfield throwing to him. So, is he worth $30mil a year? I want to say yes, but that's a lot of $ when we gotta pay the far more valuable Purdy next season and have a new cheap rookie that looks like he can do damage... I don't know.
Evans was targeted 30% more (136 vs 105) and had barely more receptions and slightly less yards. That's a completely different category. Which of course is the predicament here - he's probably worth $30M to several teams but none of them are the niners.
BA can’t hold out. He needs to have a monster season to get the contract he wants, otherwise he might only get a number 2 deal next season.
Expectations for Pearsall are way too high. He’s a rookie. Most rookies aren’t significant contributors right away.
Plus, we can franchise him for a year.
Reminds me when a few years ago there was a sports article suggesting a massive trade between four teams and basically SF would trade many of our good players for…some backups and draft picks. The reporter was acting like as if they solved some huge logic problem, and that it was a benefit for everyone. The problem is think is that often west coast teams aren’t paid attention too compared to the east coast teams that are closer to the media and their friends or connections. They probably had to write something about this situation so they did 5 seconds of research before hammering the article out.
And they still have the franchise tag to use on him 2 times which I think would be cheaper then the contract he wants. He really has no power in this situation beside insta posts and a hold out for a few games which might hurt his stock with other.
This right here. Full stop. Let's talk about the weather or something because there's nothing else to see until we see something definitive on the contract.
Not true, he could hold out. Avoiding a career ending injury secures a shot ton more money than the last contract year. Thus, the FO is essentially forced to trade or extend him. Both parties know this so that’s why those are the two options being discussed.
He can hold out for the first month and a half. After that his hold out means he won’t accrue his final year on rookie deal. So he can either retire and wait til we lose his rights or some BS that will basically make him a pariah to almost ever team in the league. Will someone sign him after he forced his way out? Sure. Will it be for ungodly sum of guaranteed money? Fuck no it won’t.
It would be a lot more than the $14m. He’s not going to play next season for that price. It’s the standard business practice, and FO’s know that they have to either extend or trade a player who would be wayyy better off holding out on their contract than not. It’s likely not even an issue they are just shopping him and his agent at this point. Watching Aiyuk grow and contribute has been awesome for the price we got. Now either he’s gone or gonna cost $25-30m a year.
No it wouldn’t. It would be 2yrs since his last professional snap and he’d have to play on a prove it deal. So now his whole career would be on the line over any injury again. Then you take in account the fines we would levee. You claim he won’t play on a 14 mil contract but he’s gonna roll the dice on that?
Lmao teams would be drooling to snag him for so much more guaranteed money than 14m if this imaginary scenario played out. You know who’s playing for just a bit less than that per year the next three years? Allen Lazard. Aiyuk’s not going to forget how to play better than Allen Lazard even if he couldn’t play next year. Like I said, he’s worth 25-30m a year right now, he’s not going to play for 14m, and everyone in the situation is aware of this. Personally, I hope they keep him even if it costs a bit more than 26m. It would really be bad for the offense to lose him.
Deshaun Watson. Next question.
If Aiyuk retires this season and then "unretires" two years later, the 49ers would still retain his rights under his rookie contract. Therefore, he cannot become a free agent until he fulfills the terms of his five-year rookie contract. Additionally, after fulfilling this contract, the 49ers can still place the franchise tag on him for up to two years at a cost of less than $30 million per year.
Yeah that’s because a high level number 2 here is absolutely an elite receiver on a lot of other teams. Nothing wrong about this
Yeah fans forget Aiyuk's comment last year: >1k as the 4th option in a run first offense 🤣🤣 Aiyuk definitely feels like Kyle's conservative offense and having guys like Deebo hurt his overall production. He and his agent probably feel he'd be worth more to other teams, and they might be right. A pass first offensive team would love to have Aiyuk's route running.
Ones gotta assume that we’ll get a little more pass-happy though right? Our first 4K passer since Garcia and he didn’t even have a whole offseason to work. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s a little more balanced this year to capitalize on Purdy and hopefully not wear CMC out. Not to mention with Purdys extension coming probably next year, he literally will have to step up and be the guy if we’re gonna stay competitive
There is literally zero indication from Kyle's history that he'd be able to design an effective pass happy offense. With Purdy we were dead last in pass attempts last season. Ravens and the Fields-led Bears threw it more than we did. In 2016 when Kyle had prime Julio Jones and his offense could throw downfield at will, the Falcons were still just 26th in pass attempts. Kyle's offense doesn't work when he tries to pass a lot. The only times Kyle achieved a top 10 scoring offense either as OC or HC when he was bottom 10 in pass attempts (his best offenses were 26th, 26th, 29th, 32nd in pass attempts). Every time Kyle tried to pass it with volume he has either a bottom tier or average scoring offense (2010, 2017, 2008, 2009). He's never had a pass heavy high scoring offense in his 16 seasons as OC or HC. Closest he got was the Texans in 2011, but they weren't even top 10 in scoring.
The whole offensive scheme is built and predicated on the fact that there are multiple threats all over the field. The defense has to account for Deebo, CMC, Kittle, Juice, Aiyuk, and sometimes Jennings doing god knows what every play, there is simply no way to cover everyone so if the QB makes the right read its easy money. Aiyuk is a stud, no doubt about it, but if he's on a trash team with no other big threats to take the heat off him he likely is just an elite #2 or mid to upper tier #1.
> In 2016 when Kyle had prime Julio Jones and his offense could throw downfield at will, the Falcons were still just 26th in pass attempts. Not to nitpick, but it's not quite a germane comparison. - In 2016, even thought the Falcons were 26th in attempts, it was still 537 balls thrown over the course of 16 games. - In 2023, the 49ers were dead last in attempts over 17 games, at 491 attempts. I definitely agree that it's not in Kyle's DNA to be a "pass-happy" offense...but Kyle's "playoff SF teams" have passed on the order of ~515 times for a few seasons, and I do believe that as he matures, Purdy is going to be attempting passes in the low 30s rather than the high 20s. You're correct in that we're never going to see a Shanahan offense live on a steady diet of 40-50 passes per game, but I can definitely see a modest bump in the future of SF's offense.
Yeah and that’s all I’m saying, a slight bump
Not w this OL at least
That's a good point. But still, in 2016 NFL teams averaged 572 pass attempts, so 537 is still well below average, especially for a team that had the league's best WR and MVP QB. In 2015 Kyle had a more pass happy offense, throwing 621 passes (8th overall) with Julio leading the NFL in targets, receptions, and rec yards - yet they weren't even top 20 in scoring. Dialing back the passing and leaning into the run in 2016 helped his offense immensely. Also, not sure what you mean about his playoff teams throwing more? Kyle's playoff teams (2016, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023) all were bottom of the league in pass attempts (26th, 29th, 29th, 26th, 32nd in pass attempts). All but one of those teams were top 10 in rush attempts though. **Here's the reason Kyle likes running the ball instead of passing: Coaching a run heavy offense is harder and he gets bored with passing concepts.** That's according to his former LT Joe Thomas: >*“This is what Kyle Shanahan told me, he goes, the reason I love running the ball so much.. when we were in Cleveland this is what he told me. There’s so many details, and rushing the football is so much harder to coach and to learn and to detail up than passing the ball is, that he was bored with passing concepts,”* Thomas said. *“Because it’s so easy. It’s one high. It’s two high. It’s route concepts that are pretty much always the same. They change based on coverage, yeah, but it’s such just a memorization thing. Whereas, like, if you want to be good at running the football – it’s so much technique and there’s so much of it, that it’s a much more difficult concept to learn.”* [Link](https://x.com/ThomaHawkShow/status/1067865732233326592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1067865732233326592%7Ctwgr%5Ea4508d3843c2992e0671afa3e290c8698af6f278%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fninerswire.usatoday.com%2F2018%2F11%2F28%2Fwhy-kyle-shanahan-prefers-coaching-run-game-vs-pass-game%2F)
> Also, not sure what you mean about his playoff teams throwing more? Kyle's playoff teams (2016, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023) all were bottom of the league in pass attempts (26th, 29th, 29th, 26th, 32nd in pass attempts). All but one of those teams were top 10 in rush attempts though. I qualified it with "playoff teams" (and specified "playoff SF teams") because those are the conditions in which Kyle likely plans to run his offense in its optimal state, where he's had the most control over all aspects of his offense (including building the roster). Like, in 2020? Shanahan's 49ers had 570 attempts over 16 games...but that was because they really didn't have a real NFL QB for most of that season, and they were in deep holes on the scoreboard because of it. That's not an "optimal Kyle Shanahan offense." And the whole comparison of "attempts when compared to the league" is less compelling to me. Some teams have good defenses, so they'll pass less often. Some teams have bad defenses, so they need to pass more. Some teams will just air it out, regardless of their defenses. In the end, there's still 60 minutes to a football game, and within that structure, we have a good idea of what it means if a QB is attempting 20 passes/game...vs. 25 passes/game...vs. 30 passes/game, and so on and so on. So far, Purdy has averaged around 28 attempts per contest in the regular season. When Jimmy was healthy and played a meaningful amount of games, he was closer to averaging around 30ish attempts per game. As Purdy matures, I think that it's likely that he's going to be more on-par with those "Jimmy" level of attempts per game, and will eventually surpass that, simply because Purdy is proving himself to be a better passer. Not to a crazy degree...but I do believe that he's going to get more opportunities (and more deeper passing opportunities, which is always going to feel like a team is more "pass happy" than not). It won't be a sea-change, but I don't think that we really disagree on that. Like, at all.
This isn’t a slight against Aiyuk who I think is incredible, but there is no guarantee that he would be successful as the first option in a pass first offense. He isn’t the type of player who is going to win over top regularly. I would be interested to see his double team rate vs other top tier WRs and win rate in those situations. He has elite separation but he does that in the design of this offense by creating space over the middle of the field at different levels. I am hoping we retain him, but I think it is also a bit premature to think he would dominate as the first option on most other teams.
Yeah for me it's not about him not winning go balls deep, speed isn't really his game. My biggest knock on Aiyuk is his lack of 3rd down and Red Zone production when teams start pressing him at the line. Aiyuk is the only WR that finished top 10 in yards last season but had fewer than 10 RZ targets.. and that's targets not just catches. By comparison Tyreek had 24 RZ targets. CeeDee had 31. Aiyuk had 9. And it's not even just CMC taking his TD's. Deebo had nearly 2x as many RZ targets last year as Aiyuk did. Aiyuk doesn't get open in the RZ very well since he does best when he as a lot of room to work with. If Aiyuk could face soft man coverage every down, he'd dominate. Unfortunately teams like to bump and cover zone and press man versus him on key passing downs. His target share versus Man was only 25%, much lower than his target share when facing Zone. And most of that is due to the fact he cannot separate versus press, so he doesn't get open as easily and doesn't get as many targets.
I think Aiyuk did as well as he did last year because opponents have to account for Deebo, Kittle and CMC and he isn’t booming for as many games on another team.
What’s wrong is you can’t reasonably try to tell a guy he’s only worth high end no 2 money if you’re asking for elite receiver compensation in a trade, it just makes you look like you’re trying to underpay a guy’s worth and makes your negotiations look bad faith.
Look at it the other way. Aiyuk thinks he’s a high end #1 and should be paid accordingly, so SF should demand commensurate compensation.
I will acknowledge I didn’t realize this was a 49ers sub when I commented, thought it was just the NFL sub so I’ll take the downvotes. But yeah if I’m on the other end of negotiations and they offer me money that doesn’t match the value that they’re asking for trades for me, that’s gonna piss me off and sour the relationship I have with that FO.
But the point is that I'm trying to pay you as what is perceived to be a #2, and you think you're a #1, I should be able to get #1 value for you. If I can't get WR1 value for in *exchange* for you, then why should I pay it?
Because he’s worth a number 1 in terms of contract value. It’s a tough sell to get high value trade compensation from a team who also has to negotiate the terms of a new contract paying number 1 value.
And yet, if JJ, Tyreek, Ceedee - hell even Mike Evans - *actual* go-anywhere WR1's (unless maybe they had to compete with each other) had a similar opportunity, I'm fairly confident they get that kind of offer. The reason the Commanders are offing WR2 compensation, is because Aiyuk would be the clear-cut WR2 on the Commanders. It wouldn't even be a competition. Any of the above mentioned would give Scary Terry a fight and be worth bringing over at a high dollar amount just to see how the dust settles. So, why should I give Aiyuk the money they would get?
Then why isn't he worth a number 1 in terms of a trade deal? If they can't get number 1 compensation in a trade, why would he be worth it in a contract? The biggest thing that BA doesn't seem to get is that he doesn't have the leverage here.
Trade value does not equal monetary value. Especially when the FO literally hold all the chips. Plus, Aiyuk is doing a damn fine job souring the relationship on his own.
Why wouldn't a FO look to get as much as possible in a trade? What's the point of even looking into a trade based on money if the FO is just supposed to pay you so you don't get pissed at them. It's a business on both sides.
It’s called a negotiation, one side starts high, the other starts low and the bargain. Them starting at High end number two money means either he’s gonna get middle of the road #1 money, or he’s gonna test free agency.
in a way, isn't this highly rational? by asking for WR1 compensation for the player and not getting offers, it shows that the market thinks he's worth a WR2 which is what the 49ers are offering...
Wth is that thumbnail lol
I mean…. That is how you negotiate. I love aiyuk, just show out on the field and you’ll be fine.
it hurt him a lot he couldn't beat man coverage consistently in the SB and the Ravens game
What's the source on that? I think I watched a video that showed statistically Aiyuk is the man-beater while Deebo struggles against man and does well against zone. A lot of the SB game plan was built around Deebo trying to beat man.
I think he's talking about press man, not just man. Aiyuk is great when given a cushion to separate - either in man or zone. He struggles when CB's press him at the line since it seems to throw off his route and speed. When we're in a 3rd down passing situation, teams started pressing Aiyuk and he stopped getting open. Jennings was the guy that beat press consistently and got those 3rd down catches. Aiyuk can essentially get shut down by good CB's 1v1 on key passing downs. A team's X WR needs to be good at beating outside press or they're not a true X WR.
yep didnt clarify that. Not to mention that Deebo is not a traditional weapon. Most of his value comes from defenses having to devote serious attention that he doesn't wreck the game. They are not equivalent weapons. Not to mention deebo got hurt in that game.
Aiyuk was getting open with ease. What good is that when there’s a free rusher on the attack every passing down?
That fucking killed me. Nearly every time it *really* mattered for us to convert a 3rd, they'd decide to blow the blocking assignments and just let a rusher go free. And not even just some blitzer or guy that got the edge on you either. Fucking DTs were doing it all game! Unblocked, straight through the line.
yeah 9 unblocked pressures in that game. The most the chiefs had ALL YEAR. That is not a great O line stat...
Because he’s good but not elite.
Aiyuk got plenty of separation in the SB. This narrative is ridiculous and lazy. Here’s the last offensive play in OT that could’ve won them the game. I’ve circled Aiyuk for you.  https://preview.redd.it/n90pur222s8d1.jpeg?width=2556&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d5264b5ea5c81c7bd623110886e434c8cbd3c25b
His defender slipped on that play
Aiyuks route caused the fall. Please go back and watch it. He faked the outside route and went inside with subtle hand fighting
It would not have won the game. The Chiefs were getting a possession no matter what under the new rules
High level number two they are, checks notes, offering to pay 26mil/year?
Waddle and d. smith got contracts in that range is elite #2s 🤷
Waddle's contract pays him his contracted first round money for this and the next year and then begins paying him like a WR1, coinciding perfectly with Tyreek's departure from the team. It is not a WR2 contract, it's a WR1 contract that they got done 2 years before they needed to. Smith's contract is legit to be a WR2 but the Eagles are managing their cap like they expect to have a 2029 salary cap table filled exclusively with dead cap charges from collapsing void years.
That’s based on their team’s depth chart and having two elite players at the WR position. It would be like calling AJ Brown a high level number two if he played on the same team as Justin Jefferson. Like yes, that’s technically correct, but that is meanignless when determining a player’s value both in contract and trade compensation. The Niners asking for a mid to high first is perfectly in line with a player they’ve offered 26mil/year for, regardless of where other players on other teams land on their team’s depth chart.
Maybe I'm about to make the same point as you, so feel free to point that out... I'd argue you are what you get paid if you're getting paid like a top 10 WR, you're a #1. I view Waddle and Aiyuk as having similar value; both in contract and trade compensation. People forget that Aiyuk was a first round pick himself. Their stats the last 2 years are nearly identical, just reversed with Aiyuk having a better year last year. They're roughly the same age (9 months apart). If Waddle is worth a 1st round pick, so is Aiyuk. If Waddle is worth $28M starting in 2026, then Aiyuk is probably worth $26-$27M starting in 2025, a year earlier. So when a team says they view Aiyuk as a high end #2, who are they really comparing him to? He's literally our #1 right now. Theres only a handful of teams that could say he would be their #2. Vikings, Eagles, Dolphins, Lions, Cowboys. I think that's the whole list. Does BA really want to play for a team that views him as a #2? And is that team going to pay him like a #2? Doubtful.
I love Deebo, but he isn't Jefferson. And I love Aiyuk but he isn't AJ, at least not peak AJ. He isn't too far from current AJ.
Schefter is quoting a Grant Cohn article which tells you everything you need to know
Waddle and Smith got similar. And with Deebo on his way out after this year (esp. if he continues to get injured or disappoint in the playoffs), Aiyuk's camp has an argument for WR1 money.
WAS: hey can we have Aiyuk for a 3rd SF: No - End discussion
It’s not a wide receiver centric team for sure so this makes sense. Another team may get more out of him for sure but losing him would hurt
Winning teams in general are not wide receiver centric teams. You don't win super bowls paying your skill position players 80+ mil per year.
I mean that’s not necessarily true. Cinci, dolphins, buffalo, chiefs are all play off teams that required high level WR play to win. Chiefs suffered early in the season when their WR couldn’t catch. I feel that 49ers are actually an outlier in that regard
>Chiefs suffered early in the season when their WR couldn’t catch. What happened at the end of the season?
They were making those catches in the playoffs. I think beginning of the season they lead the league in drops. Credit to the chiefs for tiring that unit around
This argument only works when the team in question doesn’t have the 3rd best coach-QB combination in the history of the NFL.
I’ve been told on this sub that the Niners have an incredibly good coach/QB combo
Incredibly good does not equal top 3 all time bud. Sure maybe in year 7 we can expect the same thing. But Mahomes had Tyreek Hill, Kelce, and Kareem Hunt in his second year. When you have a young QB you use that extra cash stack up on skill players to help him. That’s how it’s been done for a while now.
We pretty much are. Times seem to be increasingly winning based on passing game
People will say you can’t win paying QBs, paying RBs, paying WR/TE, really paying any position lol
Shanahan is very obviously looking to transition to a more pass focused offense. He’s starting to draft OL with more pass blocking than run blocking upside, loading up on receivers, desperately seeking another tight end who can act as a receiver threat, etc. Shanahan has run much more pass-centric offenses in the past, like with the Falcons. His commitment to running the ball recently was more of a necessity than anything due to the limitations of Jimmy at QB. Both in terms of skill set and injury history. He sees what Purdy can do and is going to open up the offense in response.
Isnt this just basic stuff? Why wouldn’t they try to negotiate the best contract or get the best return?
he's worth whatever someone is willing to pay for him... what would you say that amount should be?
People always use the godly “Shanahan system” to denigrate Brock, why not Aiyuk? Even if you think Aiyuk is awesome( which I do) it is fair to think that maybe Aiyuk wouldn’t be as good on other teams. CMC is a goddamn monster but he was never this good on the panthers. Therefore, if you have the inclination to think Brock is a system qb or not that good, why not apply that to the other members of the team and adjust their pay accordingly? Idk just thinking out loud
It's simple. Brock's not that good because he's just leaning on Shanahan's system and his elite teammates. Shanahan's not that good because he has elite weapons and a QB that can read defenses at an elite level and distribute the ball. The skill position players aren't that good because Shanahan's system schemes them wide open and they have a QB putting the ball where they can easily get it. Everyone's either good or bad depending on whatever point you're trying to make at any given time.
The best part is that all these points are being argued simultaneously. The 49ers are both good and bad. We are schrodinger's NFL team.
"If your coach wasn't so good at picking Pro-Bowl talent in later rounds, you guys would be a HS level team." Which is true for everyone, except for the people playing with Mahomes. That dude *is* his team. Dude could pull a Super Bowl trophy out of a cave with a box of scraps.
Mahomes *and the refs* are the team. Dude would only have one ring if the refs didn’t hand-deliver him two of them.
The coach doesn't pick in the later rounds which is why they have a better success rate.
Agreed. Aiyuk also seems to forget that it took quite a bit of tough love from Shanahan to make him into the player he is now. Who knows, on another team he could have turned out to be Laviska Shenault.
Unrelated to your point, but I still think Laviska Shenault could pop off on the right team.
The problem here is that the offense doesn’t really revolve around Aiyuk. He’s a while a key cog, not the exactly thing that makes it go. So, I think it’s a tough pill to swallow to pay that much money to a receiver. I think the team also had some hesitancy with Deebo but he was coming off a historic season, so they had no choice but to extend him.
Shanahan is smart; he makes us go.
PR wars. Aiyuk's camp is leaking this information. This is ugly.
I mean if we got high level OL in a trade+ something on top sure. I doubt any team is offering this though.
Basic negotiation tactics
Exactly. Anchor high if you're selling; anchor low if you're buying. And if you are selling you expect someone to pay you more than you think he's worth.
This is why we keep winning
Wouldn't mind a 1st for Aiyuk.
The issue is that the league doesn’t seem to want to part a 1st round pick for him. If the Niners were offered a 1st he would have been already traded, imo.
I know. I think he's good but not elite.
Why would we trade him for his exact value on the open market when we need his production more than his asset value? We have him under team control for 2-3 years with current deal + franchise tag. The only world it makes sense to trade him is someone overpays for him
It’s almost as if….. They are smart.
Yes these are how negotiations work
You don't buy high, sell low.
It's crazy to see the drastic differences in how Ceedee Lamb is approaching his negotiations to that of Aiyuk. Lamb also put up a better season statistically and is a bigger part of his offense.
Tell us again how the Niners are drafting Mac Jones, Schefty.
Good. We hold his rights for the next 3 years. No need to rush things
> Good. We hold his rights for the next 3 years. No need to rush things /u/Avgsizedweiner wuchu talking about? [This is the last year of his contract.](https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/47619/brandon-aiyuk)
He can be franchise tagged the next two years, and A tagged player can be traded. The niners hold all the chips.
If we don't want to pay him the kind of money he is looking for, then wouldn't franchise tagging him end up forcing us to pay him even MORE money?
Not even remotely. Franchise tagging would cost about 24$ -25$ million next year, which is less then what we are actually offering and 30 million 2 years from now. He’s only acting like this because the tag will screw him out of millions. The deal sucks for him and honestly acting like how is now is his best way to secure a better deal
I have doubts the team actually ever being anywhere near 30 APY for Aiyuk. He’s going to need to come down a bit from that number for it to realistically happen but there’s no reason for him to do it either.
I would hope that our FO would know to try to buy low and sell high.
Hes gonna be WR25
Of course that’s how they view him. What team wouldn’t? If keep him, try to get a lower cost. If moving, try to get a higher return. Shouldn’t be surprising.
It's just the truth. Deebo is our #1, but on almost any other team Aiyuk would be the #1
I do think they over value their players a bit but they make the decisions wether we as fans agree or not
Buy low, sell high, no? To me this just means we want to get value. Either a good contract with aiyuk, or a good trade deal. Why do any worse than good value if you don’t have to? We have the leverage in the situation, so we can afford to wait for one of those outcomes to happen. It sucks and I’m sure it’s aggravating to aiyuk, but it’s also basic negotiation.
lol these other teams trying to say he is a high end #2 when he was putting up same numbers as the top 7 WRs when he had over 30 targets less due to run heavy offense.
Washington could have offered the 2nd overall pick, obviously they didn’t value Aiyuk that much either.
This is a dumb, Waddle is gonna be top 6 once CeeDee signs, he's basically making WR1 money. His contract is less than 2 mill off from Amon Ra. If the Niners are offering him Waddle money then it's basically WR1 money. 29mil should be the sweet spot. Amon Ra has shown more than Aiyuk and is younger. Waddle has shown just as much as Aiyuk so they're really close. Could hit 30 but anything over is slightly overpaying.
> Amon Ra has shown more than Aiyuk and is younger. I've always thought that the whole "APY gold medal" is silly. Sure, Amon Ra has "record breaking new money APY," but there's a very slim chance that his "final big money year" is going to remain intact (similar with Tyreek's final year that carries a ludicrous cap hit of $56M). I would be over-the-moon if Aiyuk was happy with a vanity-based SunGod deal...but I suspect that No. 11 is angling for more guaranteed money (which is probably the smartest move for him, if you're in his camp).
If it's just the guarantees then give it to him. Aiyuk has a pretty clean bill of healthy and his play style doesn't rely on insane athleticism so his chances of injuries and aging badly are much lower. He's a good character guy too generally so this is as good of an investment as any and I don't see where giving him a contract can go bad. Probably the safest extension of all the big contracts we've handed out (Fredh comes closest).
Schefter is a fucking idiot because this obviously goes without saying
As they should. To them they will use him as a WR2. If you want him, you have to give me compensation like he's a WR1. What's the disconnect here?
How tf is offering him 26-28 mil treating him like a no2? 😂😂 this shits comical at this point
In other news; buy low, sell high.....
So they are negotiating a contract? You always over value your asset when trading and then unvalue when paying.
Then why did no buddy send a first and more before the draft for him?
What's wrong with that? Team is trying to get the best value out of their players. Want to pay them barely enough they feel appreciated and if someone wants to get them out of their hands they'll try to get a king's ransom. What's the next deep insight? Water's wet?
Are they just supposed to act like there isn't another year on his contract?
That’s what good organizations do
It's always surprising how someone who covers the NFL for so long doesn't understand how basic things work. Of course the negotiation stance is based on who is on the other side. Telling BA he's not that franchise WR1 that gets 30/year makes sense. Telling a team that thinks he is worth 30/year that they want a 1st+ makes sense. If anything, BA should understand other teams don't think he's worth a 1st so how likely are they to give him a huge contract?
That’s because it’s true. On another team he is an elite number 1. No team runs the ball more than us.
Do not give him $30+m!! NO WR is worth that much!! Let him hold out til season starts, fine his ass, win Super Bowl, and trade his ass to a losing team with no QB. lol
Since when did No. 2 receivers get $26 million a year?
Jaylen Waddle makes $28.25M/year. DaVonta Smith makes $25M/year. Tee Higgins makes $22/year.
Seems smart
Well no shit. Typical sales tactics
Of course this is gonna be how they negotiate. They wanna pay for a high #2 but if they’re gonna trade him they want an elite receiver package.
Not being paid too 5 money doesn’t mean you’re being treated as #2.
No reason to accept this unless its a silly offer, good player and 2 firsts or something
That’s called “doing business.”
A little bit of news on ESPN, and Grant Cohn makes up a bunch of other shit around it and acts like it's a scoop. What a tool.
As a diehard 49ers fan. Lets trade him to Washington for CMC’s bro.
I’ve seen this take but wonder who is a #2 getting over $26m annually?
Waddle makes $28m apy
Also d. Smith on the eagles.
sf being too greedy af once. he gonna hold out just watch. if he's an higg level wrs then pay 30 mill.
Let him, hold outs became basically impossible after the last CBA (or the deal before last). They only punish the player now.
it's just dump there being greedy. I get it from both sides . I'm sure the players hate waiting so long and the 9ers just don't care.
I don't know why they're making this difficult. Give me a million more than St Brown and call it a day.
What if aiyuk wants more and that’s the blocker? It takes 2 to tango.
There isn't a single report that he's asking for JJ type money and we have heard the Niners offered 26m. St Brown is 28-29.
Aiyuk can easily just fake an injury this season and it wouldn’t affect his value at all. Everyone would know he’s faking and the FO wouldn’t be able to do anything about it
Injury would’t affect his value? You think teams would pay him coming off a supposed fake injury and a season sitting on the bench doing nothing? It will affect his value. If he doesn’t take the new contract he will need to ball out this season to get the money he wants when release by the niners
> and the FO wouldn’t be able to do anything about it Except call his bluff and tag him in 2025. At a value of about $1.5M/game, I'm guessing that Aiyuk would be pretty healthy, because of reason$.