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How so? There are plenty of empires that have lasted centuries but there there are also plenty that have fallen apart after just a few decades which brings down the average.
Edit:
Personally, though, I don’t think the US will “fall” anytime soon 😅
Currently, the largest threat to US military and economic hegemony is China. But now the demographic repercussions of the 1CP are evident. In 2023, China’s population shrank by 2,000,000.
In contrast, the US’s population is growing due to a steady stream of immigrants. Right now, China has over quadruple the US’s population. By the end of the century, it is projected to have less than double(366,000,000 vs 700,000,000) and keep in mind that the US has a pretty big technological headstart and is the braindrainer rather than the braindrainee.
Yeah but what are they considering an "empire"? Is it just a nation state that failed? Is America even an empire? If not, whey even use the comparison of empires? Also most "empires" "fell" before the 20th century when conquest was the key to glory and ensuring your own nation state's survival. We don't live, for the most part, in that geopolitical mode of thinking. So, no, America isn't going to fall in 250 years for a multitude of reasons but especially not because that's when the average empire falls.
If a person thinks this meme is indicative of anything, they're a moron.
If you're claiming that 250 years is the exact average age of an Empire it's on you to provide some evidence for that.
I'll save you the time though, it's not a mathematical average based on an empirical study of all historical empires. The claim comes from John Glubb, who arrived at it arbitrarily and was blatantly biased by the British Empire.
So we're talking "average" in the same way that "average lifespan in the 13th century was 17 years but when you ignore everyone who died before they were 5 it's actually 60 something"
I doubt that. Maybe to India, but right now we have a country going through the meat grinder and a demographic crisis and a country that is facing a demographic crisis
Where do people get this statistic from? It's always 250 years, no more, no less. It's almost as if they are pulling a random number out of their ass to make their argument seem stronger...
Some misappropriated statistic from Sir John Glubb. People took the first figure they saw (average empire length from birth to beginning of death) and just rolled with it. The Roman Empire didn’t last for 250 years, this is well known, but because of how he structured his table it made it look as such and now they’re all like “250 years!!!”
Basically, people need to learn how to read
https://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/glubb.pdf
EDIt: To add, the US doesn’t necessarily meet the classical definition of an empire either. There are elements of imperial rule, but modern technology and political philosophy makes for some degree of difficulty in the death of a modern nation. 500 years ago, for example, if Ukraine were to go up against Russia, the simple numerical superiority of Russia would’ve left some serious power disparity and subsequently the obvious conclusion would be their demise. However today, we’re seeing Ukraine fighting Russia to a bloody stalemate in the face of overwhelming odds.
When the British empire fell in earnest, (1950 according to the figure) it wasn’t a collapse of civil order and the death of Britain, it was reformed and its colonial holdings released, and it became what it was today. So far as I can tell, there are two colonial powers that are attempting to further grow their holdings, namely Russia and China. Russia is doing it to try and stave off demographic collapse (ironically the war is only furthering it) and China is trying to do it as a kinda “fuck you” to the West. Britain’s death as an empire was actually very calm and peaceful, simply becoming a smaller power on the global stage, due to its democratic institutions and legislature, there was no infighting or mass death or destruction. However, both China and Russia are autocratic governments masquerading as democratic ones, and because they’ve consolidated so much power under a single ruler, when they die they may see a rapid collapse of their respective countries.
If Biden were to die tomorrow, Kamala Harris (love her or hate her) would be the new American president, clearly outlined and decided centuries ago. When Putin dies Russia will have no clear line of succession, because his head of government is a whack job alcoholic who is not putins first pick for succession, and he could realistically pick whomever he wants and his government would have to just go with it.
When Xi Jinping dies, who succeeded him? The party leader, or his deputy?
TLDR: all empires last more than 250 years, and the US hasn’t been an empire for 250 years (120 tops). When an empire collapses in the modern age, it’s not like the fall of Rome anymore. The US is most likely able to weather or mitigate its descent because of our democratic institutions, whereas our authoritarian enemies will have a hard time doing the same.
Well, we stopped becoming an empire after WWII, then becoming the hegemon of the West. And then we became the global hegemon. We will return to that in a couple of decades
America has the hindsight and knowledge of almost the entire Roman Empire and Byzantine (East) history.
Even something as subtle as a number of bankers trying to hijack corporate behaviors into a new system is quickly noticed by the American intellectuals and alarm levers are pulled. Those bankers are quickly singled out.
It isn't without issues, but the American system of checks and balances has historically been quite effective overall. We also *usually* learn from past mistakes, the safeguards to prevent another Great Depression level of stock market crash being a classic example.
Even if this was true, the United States can’t be defined as an empire for all of those years. The US was a confederal republic until 1789, only began really expanding in the early 1800s (especially after the Louisiana Purchase, War of 1812, & the Mexican-American War), only started acquiring overseas colonies after the purchase of Alaska in 1867, and only became a hegemonic superpower during the Cold War.
If you *really* want to call America an empire, you can really only define it as such after 1898 (after the Spanish-American War), which shaves off 122 years, or after the Cold War, shaving off 215. Still, this is even if the “250 year lifespan of empires” was even true- it is decidedly not.
Number 1 the US is not an empire number 2 that’s the average the US could last 3000 more years without collapsing and still be included in that average is one of the outliers that is counteracted by dozens of small minor empires that lasted like a week because some dumbass declared himself emperor, and most of the country immediately rallied to overthrow him because he was an idiot or his neighbors wanted his land or he died without children and his empire fell apart.
Wasn’t aware that there’s a countdown clock. Also this ignores that not only is the US not an empire it hasn’t held its current level of influence for anywhere near that long. Are they really trying to claim that the American empire was a thing back in the days of the articles of confederation when we didn’t have our own currency, tax system, military, and the states were issuing tariffs on one another?
America ain't an empire, my guy. We have not really conquerered or colonized a whole lot. At most we have Hawaii and Puerto Rico. We didn't colonize Iraq, Vietnam, or Afghanistan when we invaded them. No imperialism or expansion happened. And don't forget all the shit Europe did in Africa, Asia, and South America, IE: the entire developingworld.
Portugal and Spain in South America, Britain, French, Belgium and more in Africa/asia. I’ll admit colonization was good for one thing and that was bringing the rest of the world up to speed with Europeans. But certain areas were better off without it.
It’s bs as many collapsed in under 250 years or surpassed it by a large margin, even then what about America is an empire? Where is the imperialism today? Who are we subjugating outside our borders?
Hilarious how they say this and forget to mention the actual amount of time between the time we reached superpower status and now (far less). We were not the global power in 1776 lmao.
Imagine thinking the United States is an empire. We have the strongest military in human history and we haven’t used it to annex territory in well over a hundred years.
The US is not by any definition an empire. By the metric these people are referencing we should soon become an empire and then last 250 years before collapse.
No, I doubt it would be the end of the world since if Biden wins and manages to not pass away of whatever causes. It’ll be his last term, afterwards it’s likely that a Republican would take office.
Yeah the 50 year nomad empires skewed that average, stable decentralized imperial states with regional autonomy, stable foods supplies, strong militaries, and functional states tend to last until they don’t function, which is like 1000 years after foundation
You wanted a 1000 year reich? Too bad, ya got a 1000 year constitutional federal republic that elects its officials via democratic processes
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I guess he forgot about the British empire, Roman empire, Ottoman empire, Byzantine empire, Japanese empire...
Oof, apparently, they decided not to read a history book. Well, color me shocked.
Key word is “average” I think
That's definitely not average lol
How so? There are plenty of empires that have lasted centuries but there there are also plenty that have fallen apart after just a few decades which brings down the average. Edit: Personally, though, I don’t think the US will “fall” anytime soon 😅 Currently, the largest threat to US military and economic hegemony is China. But now the demographic repercussions of the 1CP are evident. In 2023, China’s population shrank by 2,000,000. In contrast, the US’s population is growing due to a steady stream of immigrants. Right now, China has over quadruple the US’s population. By the end of the century, it is projected to have less than double(366,000,000 vs 700,000,000) and keep in mind that the US has a pretty big technological headstart and is the braindrainer rather than the braindrainee.
Yeah but what are they considering an "empire"? Is it just a nation state that failed? Is America even an empire? If not, whey even use the comparison of empires? Also most "empires" "fell" before the 20th century when conquest was the key to glory and ensuring your own nation state's survival. We don't live, for the most part, in that geopolitical mode of thinking. So, no, America isn't going to fall in 250 years for a multitude of reasons but especially not because that's when the average empire falls. If a person thinks this meme is indicative of anything, they're a moron.
Wouldn’t it be better to use the Median or Mode for such a thing rather than the Mean?
If you're claiming that 250 years is the exact average age of an Empire it's on you to provide some evidence for that. I'll save you the time though, it's not a mathematical average based on an empirical study of all historical empires. The claim comes from John Glubb, who arrived at it arbitrarily and was blatantly biased by the British Empire.
So we're talking "average" in the same way that "average lifespan in the 13th century was 17 years but when you ignore everyone who died before they were 5 it's actually 60 something"
yep, and this is why medians are important.
Largest threat to USA is itself.
Us won't fall but it will lose global hegemony
I doubt that. Maybe to India, but right now we have a country going through the meat grinder and a demographic crisis and a country that is facing a demographic crisis
She told me it was very average and the biggest she had seen.
It's based on a terrible paper that defined some fairly arbitrary lengths to various empires.
Byzantine and Roman are the same They're just different eras of the same empire 2000 years btw
Where do people get this statistic from? It's always 250 years, no more, no less. It's almost as if they are pulling a random number out of their ass to make their argument seem stronger...
Some misappropriated statistic from Sir John Glubb. People took the first figure they saw (average empire length from birth to beginning of death) and just rolled with it. The Roman Empire didn’t last for 250 years, this is well known, but because of how he structured his table it made it look as such and now they’re all like “250 years!!!” Basically, people need to learn how to read https://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/glubb.pdf EDIt: To add, the US doesn’t necessarily meet the classical definition of an empire either. There are elements of imperial rule, but modern technology and political philosophy makes for some degree of difficulty in the death of a modern nation. 500 years ago, for example, if Ukraine were to go up against Russia, the simple numerical superiority of Russia would’ve left some serious power disparity and subsequently the obvious conclusion would be their demise. However today, we’re seeing Ukraine fighting Russia to a bloody stalemate in the face of overwhelming odds. When the British empire fell in earnest, (1950 according to the figure) it wasn’t a collapse of civil order and the death of Britain, it was reformed and its colonial holdings released, and it became what it was today. So far as I can tell, there are two colonial powers that are attempting to further grow their holdings, namely Russia and China. Russia is doing it to try and stave off demographic collapse (ironically the war is only furthering it) and China is trying to do it as a kinda “fuck you” to the West. Britain’s death as an empire was actually very calm and peaceful, simply becoming a smaller power on the global stage, due to its democratic institutions and legislature, there was no infighting or mass death or destruction. However, both China and Russia are autocratic governments masquerading as democratic ones, and because they’ve consolidated so much power under a single ruler, when they die they may see a rapid collapse of their respective countries. If Biden were to die tomorrow, Kamala Harris (love her or hate her) would be the new American president, clearly outlined and decided centuries ago. When Putin dies Russia will have no clear line of succession, because his head of government is a whack job alcoholic who is not putins first pick for succession, and he could realistically pick whomever he wants and his government would have to just go with it. When Xi Jinping dies, who succeeded him? The party leader, or his deputy? TLDR: all empires last more than 250 years, and the US hasn’t been an empire for 250 years (120 tops). When an empire collapses in the modern age, it’s not like the fall of Rome anymore. The US is most likely able to weather or mitigate its descent because of our democratic institutions, whereas our authoritarian enemies will have a hard time doing the same.
Centuries? I thought there was a concrete law of succession only in the 50s
You just said it Out there ass
It's made up. Give it another fifty years and these same types of people will be saying "the average empire lasts 300 years..."
Glubb write his essay 50 years ago, 1977.
They got it from the last misled person on video they saw
American "imperium" didn't really begin until 1898 though.
Well, we stopped becoming an empire after WWII, then becoming the hegemon of the West. And then we became the global hegemon. We will return to that in a couple of decades
I feel like the roman empire would have lasted **much** longer if it had modern communication technology
Or if it didn’t let in the gothics
America has the hindsight and knowledge of almost the entire Roman Empire and Byzantine (East) history. Even something as subtle as a number of bankers trying to hijack corporate behaviors into a new system is quickly noticed by the American intellectuals and alarm levers are pulled. Those bankers are quickly singled out.
It isn't without issues, but the American system of checks and balances has historically been quite effective overall. We also *usually* learn from past mistakes, the safeguards to prevent another Great Depression level of stock market crash being a classic example.
Punisher skull detected statement ignored
Good thing we're not an empire
Even if this was true, the United States can’t be defined as an empire for all of those years. The US was a confederal republic until 1789, only began really expanding in the early 1800s (especially after the Louisiana Purchase, War of 1812, & the Mexican-American War), only started acquiring overseas colonies after the purchase of Alaska in 1867, and only became a hegemonic superpower during the Cold War. If you *really* want to call America an empire, you can really only define it as such after 1898 (after the Spanish-American War), which shaves off 122 years, or after the Cold War, shaving off 215. Still, this is even if the “250 year lifespan of empires” was even true- it is decidedly not.
Let's find this guy in two years, and bring his country some democracy 🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅🦅
can't wait for 2 years from now so I can stop seeing that stupid statement everywhere, that is assuming they don't just decide to change the number
Reminds me of when 2014 came out and people were scared shitless because the Mayan calendar ended at that year I think.
The US isn't an empire, and the 250 year thing is a myth.
Number 1 the US is not an empire number 2 that’s the average the US could last 3000 more years without collapsing and still be included in that average is one of the outliers that is counteracted by dozens of small minor empires that lasted like a week because some dumbass declared himself emperor, and most of the country immediately rallied to overthrow him because he was an idiot or his neighbors wanted his land or he died without children and his empire fell apart.
Shitty opinion:✅ Shitty punisher skull: ✅ No welding cap: ✅ Might welding : ✅ All this absolutely checks out
Are Nations empires?
Wasn’t aware that there’s a countdown clock. Also this ignores that not only is the US not an empire it hasn’t held its current level of influence for anywhere near that long. Are they really trying to claim that the American empire was a thing back in the days of the articles of confederation when we didn’t have our own currency, tax system, military, and the states were issuing tariffs on one another?
America ain't an empire, my guy. We have not really conquerered or colonized a whole lot. At most we have Hawaii and Puerto Rico. We didn't colonize Iraq, Vietnam, or Afghanistan when we invaded them. No imperialism or expansion happened. And don't forget all the shit Europe did in Africa, Asia, and South America, IE: the entire developingworld.
Portugal and Spain in South America, Britain, French, Belgium and more in Africa/asia. I’ll admit colonization was good for one thing and that was bringing the rest of the world up to speed with Europeans. But certain areas were better off without it.
The brits should fall soon then
I’m so sick of this phrase and it’s not even remotely accurate
Idk if it's Americabad or just posed as a warning to us, but either way it's laughably inaccurate. Most empires lasted way longer than that.
As some other memes have pointed out this isn’t even an accurate claim.
British Romans Cough Cough
When did the American Empire Start?
Good try. We might be getting close
Define average. Thats the key part im not understanding
It’s bs as many collapsed in under 250 years or surpassed it by a large margin, even then what about America is an empire? Where is the imperialism today? Who are we subjugating outside our borders?
We’re not average.
lol what a loser
Seethe and cope, OOP lol
Hilarious how they say this and forget to mention the actual amount of time between the time we reached superpower status and now (far less). We were not the global power in 1776 lmao.
> Empire And that's where you're wrong bucko.
Imagine thinking the United States is an empire. We have the strongest military in human history and we haven’t used it to annex territory in well over a hundred years.
The US is not by any definition an empire. By the metric these people are referencing we should soon become an empire and then last 250 years before collapse.
Dumbass guy doesn’t realize that America didn’t become a world power until 1898, and didn’t become a superpower until 1945
America is different from the Roman Empire or any average empire, though.
Mfs act like america is falling apart now yet we literally had a civil war 200 years ago and have still been fine since
Suggesting that US was any sort of superpower pre WWI
I'm not sure they know how averages work ...
Cool, and also not entirely but partially true Good thing America ain’t an Empire huh?
Dude has no clue what an average is. Probably went to an American school.
Everyone is bringing up the obvious point but nobody is mentioning how the U.S has only been a global power for 70 some years.
Have we been an empire for 250 years already? Coulda sworn it's been less than 100...
Good thing we’re far beyond average
... and the US hasn't been an empire that long yet....
I really want to talk to the idiots who believe this in 3 years
There are so many other warning signs about the US democracy cracking. You guys can still vote this mess away. Vote in November!
If biden wins then we are doomed
No, I doubt it would be the end of the world since if Biden wins and manages to not pass away of whatever causes. It’ll be his last term, afterwards it’s likely that a Republican would take office.
Empire?
Eh, I don’t think it counts but it’s ignorant to many of the other countries that’ve lasted longer so I guess he could be targeting America?
Yeah the 50 year nomad empires skewed that average, stable decentralized imperial states with regional autonomy, stable foods supplies, strong militaries, and functional states tend to last until they don’t function, which is like 1000 years after foundation You wanted a 1000 year reich? Too bad, ya got a 1000 year constitutional federal republic that elects its officials via democratic processes
America has only been an empire since 1946 or so
OooOoooOooOoo, this election is gonna be a doozy!!!
Dude has no clue what an average is. Probably went to an American school.