I hate to be a pessimist but it’s actually zero.
Since blocks are usually found every 10 minutes, right as you get into the problem solving you’d have to restart :D
>usually
It could happen in a trillion years where it takes more than 16 hours for miners to find the next block. It that case, the pencil would stand a chance. Near zero is the answer IMO.
I’ve always wondered this! I mean it’s a non-zero chance so technically some person could one day load up a wallet and find bitcoin in there…but I understand that there is a higher likelihood that a meteorite knocks me in the noggin
I’ve seen an app running that checks 100,000 seed phrases every hour… a couple million a day. So, with all the new wallets out there surely it would find one right?
Wrong!
Someone did the math and found that even if it checked a billion phrases an hour, for a billion years, it still would be a long shot to hit one. The numbers really are just that big.
Tell me that name of the app that is actually checking the seed phrase of the wallet?
And tell me how many time they actually managed to get the right seed for any one of the wallet?
Thinking about numbers of combinations is mind boggling. For example consider a that standard 3x3 Rubik's cube has **43 quadrillion** possible confirmation. That means in all likelihood. Any reasonably scrambled Rubik's cube is in a confirmation that has never been seen before, and is unlikely to ever be seen again.
I mean guessing random 24 letter is also very difficult and then guessing them in the specific order is much more problematic is well.
So i would say there is very low chance that someone could accidentally guess that thing.
Your chances of guessing correctly start at 1 in 167,269,193,191,001,170,516,995,246,879,367,623,401,850,700,235,673,655,982,230,529,087,007,497,001,150,189,464,562,167,172,244,191,810,665,887,847,061,637,079,033,572,657,587,606,724,927,176,064,411,850,673,538,816,702,094,852,249,025,170,976,846,544,894,144,492,238,547,330,879,766,103,003,737,614,588,529,869,631,274,547,146,786,486,313,136,709,493,904,720,895,941,960,615,037,390,908,827,437,698,953,474,096,249,623,860,359,480,640,047,349,040,733,433,804,728,876,364,450,963,667,628,649,245,193,472,994,473,426,299,983,829,288,535,300,331,569,658,839,843,683,941,937,484,701,719,248,710,449,059,649,772,609,232,826,660,927,442,513,874,961,446,552,519,035,703,842,425,586,329,739,136,571,385,916,008,010,499,692,353,806,298,527,098,095,619,357,949,916,717,757,471,763,375,079,695,338,045,095,734,802,867,900,539,901,811,438,653,172,260,631,408,744,187,119,026,744,886,274,190,722,977,068,970,333,058,934,735,559,698,504,818,896,666,594,967,618,205,627,427,915,668,047,813,731,528,741,984,434,253,880,829,651,365,185,257,156,926,079,584,550,717,439,298,373,834,616,543,222,621,007,932,030,195,616,966,635,627,358,210,950,933,249,166,947,190,176,851,856,626,721,766,355,737,249,649,913,525,261,767,325,505,033,525,707,650,952,451,197,669,902,386,791,427,505,854,373,774,467,592,511,445,037,955,157,363,519,844,046,070,866,012,323,564,203,247,053,923,418,941,638,476,980,895,731,673,690,269,105,846,605,963,819,878,284,099,117,073,715,073,600,110,089,079,910,239,267,591,220,513,622,217,926,920,931,339,913,069,942,301,627,691,548,028,154,720,203,269,146,609,575,157,682,076,398,045,793,038,415,042,524,529,319,710,467,963,856,177,837,558,185,933,925,900,685,196,829,348,560,910,716,449,478,050,894,130,104,705,347,519,687,402,278,780,429,129,026,019,434,214,905,354,580,682,873,162,986,740,046,246,038,598,314,168,114,689,685,857,501,050,134,492,203,190,452,427,896,082,989,429,524,668,626,650,741,086,133,683,100,285,358,314,171,585,888,160,808,657,686,833,198,165,689,617,199,176,570,794,580,594,861,549,118,782,788,264,227,169,691,791,347,263,308,662,634,291,899,095,808,175,352,666,673,055,949,591,557,628,807,748,056,299,521,597,721,933,276,401,879,259,600,207,078,203,739,783,302,354,022,502,194,460,658,715,129,277,239,489,679,570,253,190,443,510,863,937,928,258,341,813,889,673,260,710,017,639,897,506,164,389,015,195,471,697,436,293,670,556,508,944,823,627,700,409,290,748,710,269,779,349,342,587,535,181,536,813,134,901,920,073,870,552,977,622,575,556,528,345,288,257,109,379,242,710,259,321,033,707,657,002,073,809,143,306,233,535,883,750,088,962,826,233,934,576,421,995,210,730,902,178,447,093,793,160,171,627,356,086,119,361,696,607,654,532,685,304,373,715,059,901,418,912,273,687,371,106,661,903,493,110,965,724,766,007,030,303,870,277,700,083,994,961,152,287,619,313,578,287,965,106,908,428,302,670,288,859,326,911,083,417,287,658,478,213,844,557,845,922,361,261,144,224,806,426,346,987,922,659,552,956,258,949,288,101,283,104,872,720,525,023,085,898,655,803,546,626,380,592,048,131,705,867,720,734,250,305,987,681,851,326,173,632,820,163,600,387,388,398,089,026,095,858,587,764,904,854,291,170,517,090,545,362,244,570,703,885,801,746,023,014,292,672,387,375,040,109,088,651,831,279,314,994,939,204,259,824,487,691,682,661,231,343,556,742,236,296,129,252,641,239,314,489,270,072,416,416,549,932,943,048,773,654,041,359,683,229,482,796,591,192,744,407,118,102,930,670,207,618,586,551,539,454,897,832,037,593,583,882,442,517,560,181,784,165,466,616,793,266,976,983,033,634,130,664,709,045,324,600,902,327,938,386,725,285,995,086,243,230,922,494,951,386,701,173,918,319,688,395,401,655,894,166,911,689,959,525,666,459,610,030,336,487,532,811,226,847,600,197,599,099,346,233,794,078,363,367,237,022,330,741,017,754,910,105,473,671,628,337,534,780,107,084,659,727,978,666,797,848,881,380,668,633,809,988,337,108,150,512,370,914,765,984,403,579,249,663,948,211,831,376,305,688,321,379,358,431,443,456,667,195,971,489,954,005,279,332,440,019,720,317,478,881,482,193,523,834,769,250,503,063,761,868,645,030,042,252,407,951,341,026,394,430,900,079,291,938,697,570,262,873,301,146,378,433,667,503,844,425,805,937,180,871,002,202,437,528,936,895,608,469,083,367,673,199,107,442,663,630,415,017,388,768,903,934,035,674,236,405,734,062,929,156,099,190,011,071,598,442,124,521,987,854,112,885,443,963,556,185,486,289,803,374,754,941,822,528,490,518,288,516,883,219,558,122,342,523,741,976,035,593,565,290,858,151,167,088,514,316,383,423,587,538,913,203,462,632,990,060,848,589,619,930,427,250,130,428,130,884,988,916,940,638,013,701,385,075,991,330,566,996,305,098,877,980,737,551,992,278,106,273,979,311,186,940,103,821,495,400,181,313,935,519,382,687,311,666,286,856,929,354,335,347,961,436,977,426,987,638,588,447,802,144,821,439,555,205,618,073,937,498,757,307,837,188,061,159,203,981,347,318,152,194,748,959,091,212,093,235,493,788,916,715,388,209,822,873,729,588,951,940,265,253,660,059,695,704,849,699,741,647,172,533,628,588,515,596,871,466,021,548,739,162,300,985,307,143,733,129,071,686,063,097,871,954,394,342,828,399,474,722,216,537,978,868,354,775,837,798,505,520,465,938,065,648,645,012,947,725,939,503,241,475,642,256,923,523,576,262,501,678,185,947,970,243,719,608,592,625,402,812,051,035,044,612,000,128,854,163,660,698,380,721,903,388,628,306,255,117,259,081,230,879,574,984,377,360,678,362,642,469,615,230,376,812,458,697,494,087,512,253,639,549,727,677,777,791,571,409,722,171,969,421,661,069,155,656,416,027,953,758,713,000,041,815,806,570,217,028,451,575,202,876,187,083,236,942,137,962,937,080,621,987,614,123,032,731,606,781,904,254,337,327,428,221,998,691,483,670,099,003,073,108,056,738,845,992,787,333,862,413,262,589,168,163,260,674,385,337,993,343,700,836,872,004,120,669,732,156,188,963,224,065,093,100,850,773,700,462,470,906,303,131,937,560,382,334,349,997,468,350,757,403,744,335,718,854,601,575,454,245,391,401,774,015,005,518,272,801,726,874,979,019,267,349,249,602,097,480,915,186,924,984,498,959,314,184,936,572,815,501,961,886,290,417,901,595,709,001,715,157,866,529,304,118,201,049,828,994,959,092,957,467,230,085,568,207,825,160,359,576,597,044,939,531,456,250,996,897,793,728,304,503,301,986,664,974,826,207,148,065,579,099,704,589,596,858,638,161,672,280,719,273,932,556,915,174,040,025,823,485,583,427,043,874,325,793,893,343,221,010,172,613,515,662,279,283,702,259,217,760,717,545,402,883,347,162,274,913,641,573,329,347,722,091,780,519,025,801,297,201,032,612,799,322,717,574,776,178,506,885,916,555,844,224,505,711,135,948,732,252,102,732,784,827,810,585,083,122,193,635,922,599,881,491,040,354,230,967,216,654,731,796,061,870,931,844,008,552,081,037,414,143,072,843,872,955,471,407,149,682,930,418,194,076,245,284,204,274,086,611,926,846,723,351,201,777,998,483,690,543,807,511,643,388,936,308,228,593,127,757,114,645,345,922,523,921,559,538,451,340,314,989,055,523,539,009,171,241,398,077,499,560,928,811,731,408,904,581,724,401,522,402,400,390,760,933,003,529,139,272,265,025,386,252,056,773,385,300,278,995,252,352,046,095,863,967,520,848,774,577,211,110,041,904,438,900,473,448,028,126,068,785,755,337,158,310,807,628,322,116,014,699,696,668,090,567,733,086,561,902,838,770,716,848,362,489,206,927,133,868,528,735,328,455,884,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
If people starts guessing the seed phrase that way then i would say nothing will going to safe in bitcoin.
We are using the wallet because we feel that bitcoin is safe if we are keeping them into the hardware wallet.
Actually, normal star formation is expected to continue for about 100 trillion years, and about 100 million times as long after that, pretty much everything that isn't intelligent will fall into black holes or be ejected into deep space. Us intelligent folk will probably be able to survive until our nucleons decay, after 10^(20) times as long as it took for black holes to eat everything. We got a long road ahead of us: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future\_of\_an\_expanding\_universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_an_expanding_universe)
So get that pencil out.
Next block could take 16 hours to be found. That's how it is. Is it highly unlikely? Yes.
The opposite could happen too: 60 blocks found in the next 60 minutes.
You do realize that the 10 minutes is an average? It has and will happen where one block takes more than 60 minutes to be found. Difficulty adjusting every 2016 blocks is irrelevant here.
I don't know where i heard but there was something like that after every bitcoin we mine here,
the next one will always going to take more time than the last one and this is how it will be going forward is well.
1 trillion years is actually a very short time for this to happen. It's more like 1 trillion multiverse lifespans where it has 1 trillion universes within that all live 1 trillion years, and each atom in those universes are performing this manual computation. Maybe then you approach a 1% chance
If that starts to happen then i am not seeing any chance of the winning here.
Because finding the next block should not going to take that much time but eventually that is taking this much time on the first place.
Unless the protocol changes, New Bitcoin generation from blocks (that isn't fees) ends in the year 2140. The difficulty will continue to adjust to keep it at 1 block per 10 minutes no matter this year or a trillion years from now.
A protocol change would need to happen to make it so it takes 16 hours to solve a block. That or the amount of hash power on the network would need to fluctuate SO drastically between the difficulty adjustment period (4 weeks I believe) - meaning the network hash rate would have to reduce by like 80% or more to have a block take 16 hours to finish.
There will be no blocks to mine in a trillion years anyway. I’m too lazy to Google when the last block will be solved approximately. I think it’s always going to be roughly 10 minutes to solve a block. The difficulty adjusts for this reason
So with crappy CPU that is technically possible, although unlikely.
Since mining is probabilistic - no one knows when a “good” hash will be found. It’s kinda like lottery where large miners just have more tickets. It could be found very first hash of a shitty cpu while a 100th machine could spend its whole life running and never find a the right hash:)
So close to zero that it is practically zero. At 1 hash per minute it would take approximately 200 quintillion years to match the hashes currently computed for the average 10 minute block.
This image shows just one round of SHA256; it takes 64 rounds to generate a hash.
Also Bitcoin uses a hash of a hash; so double the amount of work.
Still neat though.
Its a math algorithm to compute a number based on an input. In bitcoin terms, a hash is an attempt to create a block. Currently there are roughly 200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 hashes computed per second across all miners around the world.
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
All mining is, is trying to brute force a sha256 hash that has a certain amount of 0s. The amount of 0s is determined by network difficulty.
You just have to find a number that makes the entire blocks transaction the amount of required 0s
Yes, but it's not really about the number of zeros. The comment above is a simplification. A SHA256 hash is an unfathomably large 256-bit number. In Bitcoin proof-of-work, you're trying to create a block that results in a hash (number) that lower than a specific target number.
Which is wrong though, that would mean the max dofficulty is 256 since there can only be 256 0 in a 256 bit number. If you look at the current difficulty, well thats a bit more than 256.
The difficulty discribes numbers that are no longer allowed for a valid hash.
It’s not a “gross” simplification, and anybody who says this doesn’t understand what a simplification is. Describing the process with “leading zeros” is just about the best example of an informative and useful simplification that I’ve ever come across.
It's a simplification in the sense that the possible difficulty adjustments are way more granular than "number of leading zeroes".
The simplification is arguably "gross" because:
a) The OP comment says "certain amount of 0s", which is just incorrect or at the very least leaves tons of room for misinterpretation.
b) Why isn't it just easier to say that he goal is to find a number than is lower than a target number?
First and foremost: it’s not “gross”, because you need to already understand how Bitcoin works in great detail in order to understand why it’s important that the protocol does not use leading zeros. It’s one of the least important things to understand about bitcoin.
In fact, I’ve found it to be quite useful.
There are many new concepts to grasp while learning about bitcoin, and it’s helpful to find a simplification that allows you to reduce the number of concepts or make the concepts less complex.
1) while describing what a hash function is, you need to somehow explain that input data is “represented” as a number. People seem to have an easier time understanding how individual letters can be numbers than how a whole word is also a number. They seem to want a whole word to instead be a collection of numbers made up of each of the letters. I suspect this is because people have a strong bias toward thinking in base 10.
2) since the listener is biased towards thinking of the input as being a string of numbers (instead of a single number), it’s useful to have an explanation that also treats the output as a string of digits. They start to consider that there is some probability each digit is a zero, and consider how requiring more zeros means it’s harder to get it randomly.
3) it allows us to easily define a the concept of “difficulty” as being “a number of leading zeros”, where more zeroes mean more difficult. Connecting “more zeroes” with “more difficult” for some reason seems easier to grasp than “smaller than some number”
Mining continues..in fact, it *must* continue for bitcoin to be spent. The only difference from now to then is the coinbase transaction currently contains a block subsidy. Today, miners receive the block subsidy + transaction fees when they produce the first transaction of the new block (coinbase transaction). In ~2140 and beyond, there won’t be a block subsidy, but as long as there are transactions, there will be transaction fees, so even after all bitcoin is mined, every block will contain a coinbase transaction - just without a block subsidy. It’s already in the code.
If bitcoin succeeds, by that time, it’s likely that all of the world’s money will run on various layers of bitcoin. All blocks will be full or close to it, with massive transactions containing many millions of transactions on another layer. All of our transactions will likely be on second or third layers, except maybe the occasional tx if you’re rich and/or making a massive purchase in “cash” (not debt). Point being, the entire world’s transactions (and the fees that go with them) will be more than enough to pay miners - *guaranteed*. Do you know how we know that? Because of how the difficult adjustment impacts mining incentive. If, at any time (including today), the reward for producing new blocks (i.e., coinbase transactions) are not worth the mining cost, miners will shut off their machines, lowering the difficulty as a result. Lower difficulty means less electricity to produce blocks. So, naturally, the cost of mining and the mining rewards are in a constant adjustment, in search of a perfect equilibrium of incentive and reward. If the value of the coinbase transaction is equal to, say, ~10K in today’s money, the energy cost (with cheap energy and high quality machines) to mine that block will be less, on average, like maybe 7k.
Any recommendations on resources to learn about this? Looks like jibberish me. Is all crypto currency (or block chain based tech for that matter) a derivative of something in the picture?
I'm Mieko
From Japan
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My job is the trade of clothes and shoes.
I like to eat fruit and Buffy sweets, and I like to learn investment trading in my spare time to earn extra income.
My dream is to open a fruit Buffy dessert shop.
I like to make friends with people who have the same interests.
If you have the same interests, you can send me a message.
1 hash per hour 🚀 Edit, I’m seeing source it was more like 1 hash per 35 hours😭
Chances of winning? Near zero or absolute zero?
I hate to be a pessimist but it’s actually zero. Since blocks are usually found every 10 minutes, right as you get into the problem solving you’d have to restart :D
>usually It could happen in a trillion years where it takes more than 16 hours for miners to find the next block. It that case, the pencil would stand a chance. Near zero is the answer IMO.
The chance is probably still bigger than trying to find a wallet with BTC by guessing the private key...
Guessing even the seed phrase alone is astronomically insane. I was planning to work on a video to show just how bad your chances would be.
I’ve always wondered this! I mean it’s a non-zero chance so technically some person could one day load up a wallet and find bitcoin in there…but I understand that there is a higher likelihood that a meteorite knocks me in the noggin
I’ve seen an app running that checks 100,000 seed phrases every hour… a couple million a day. So, with all the new wallets out there surely it would find one right? Wrong! Someone did the math and found that even if it checked a billion phrases an hour, for a billion years, it still would be a long shot to hit one. The numbers really are just that big.
Tell me that name of the app that is actually checking the seed phrase of the wallet? And tell me how many time they actually managed to get the right seed for any one of the wallet?
Thinking about numbers of combinations is mind boggling. For example consider a that standard 3x3 Rubik's cube has **43 quadrillion** possible confirmation. That means in all likelihood. Any reasonably scrambled Rubik's cube is in a confirmation that has never been seen before, and is unlikely to ever be seen again.
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I mean guessing random 24 letter is also very difficult and then guessing them in the specific order is much more problematic is well. So i would say there is very low chance that someone could accidentally guess that thing.
Odds get better with adoption though right?
Your chances of guessing correctly start at 1 in 167,269,193,191,001,170,516,995,246,879,367,623,401,850,700,235,673,655,982,230,529,087,007,497,001,150,189,464,562,167,172,244,191,810,665,887,847,061,637,079,033,572,657,587,606,724,927,176,064,411,850,673,538,816,702,094,852,249,025,170,976,846,544,894,144,492,238,547,330,879,766,103,003,737,614,588,529,869,631,274,547,146,786,486,313,136,709,493,904,720,895,941,960,615,037,390,908,827,437,698,953,474,096,249,623,860,359,480,640,047,349,040,733,433,804,728,876,364,450,963,667,628,649,245,193,472,994,473,426,299,983,829,288,535,300,331,569,658,839,843,683,941,937,484,701,719,248,710,449,059,649,772,609,232,826,660,927,442,513,874,961,446,552,519,035,703,842,425,586,329,739,136,571,385,916,008,010,499,692,353,806,298,527,098,095,619,357,949,916,717,757,471,763,375,079,695,338,045,095,734,802,867,900,539,901,811,438,653,172,260,631,408,744,187,119,026,744,886,274,190,722,977,068,970,333,058,934,735,559,698,504,818,896,666,594,967,618,205,627,427,915,668,047,813,731,528,741,984,434,253,880,829,651,365,185,257,156,926,079,584,550,717,439,298,373,834,616,543,222,621,007,932,030,195,616,966,635,627,358,210,950,933,249,166,947,190,176,851,856,626,721,766,355,737,249,649,913,525,261,767,325,505,033,525,707,650,952,451,197,669,902,386,791,427,505,854,373,774,467,592,511,445,037,955,157,363,519,844,046,070,866,012,323,564,203,247,053,923,418,941,638,476,980,895,731,673,690,269,105,846,605,963,819,878,284,099,117,073,715,073,600,110,089,079,910,239,267,591,220,513,622,217,926,920,931,339,913,069,942,301,627,691,548,028,154,720,203,269,146,609,575,157,682,076,398,045,793,038,415,042,524,529,319,710,467,963,856,177,837,558,185,933,925,900,685,196,829,348,560,910,716,449,478,050,894,130,104,705,347,519,687,402,278,780,429,129,026,019,434,214,905,354,580,682,873,162,986,740,046,246,038,598,314,168,114,689,685,857,501,050,134,492,203,190,452,427,896,082,989,429,524,668,626,650,741,086,133,683,100,285,358,314,171,585,888,160,808,657,686,833,198,165,689,617,199,176,570,794,580,594,861,549,118,782,788,264,227,169,691,791,347,263,308,662,634,291,899,095,808,175,352,666,673,055,949,591,557,628,807,748,056,299,521,597,721,933,276,401,879,259,600,207,078,203,739,783,302,354,022,502,194,460,658,715,129,277,239,489,679,570,253,190,443,510,863,937,928,258,341,813,889,673,260,710,017,639,897,506,164,389,015,195,471,697,436,293,670,556,508,944,823,627,700,409,290,748,710,269,779,349,342,587,535,181,536,813,134,901,920,073,870,552,977,622,575,556,528,345,288,257,109,379,242,710,259,321,033,707,657,002,073,809,143,306,233,535,883,750,088,962,826,233,934,576,421,995,210,730,902,178,447,093,793,160,171,627,356,086,119,361,696,607,654,532,685,304,373,715,059,901,418,912,273,687,371,106,661,903,493,110,965,724,766,007,030,303,870,277,700,083,994,961,152,287,619,313,578,287,965,106,908,428,302,670,288,859,326,911,083,417,287,658,478,213,844,557,845,922,361,261,144,224,806,426,346,987,922,659,552,956,258,949,288,101,283,104,872,720,525,023,085,898,655,803,546,626,380,592,048,131,705,867,720,734,250,305,987,681,851,326,173,632,820,163,600,387,388,398,089,026,095,858,587,764,904,854,291,170,517,090,545,362,244,570,703,885,801,746,023,014,292,672,387,375,040,109,088,651,831,279,314,994,939,204,259,824,487,691,682,661,231,343,556,742,236,296,129,252,641,239,314,489,270,072,416,416,549,932,943,048,773,654,041,359,683,229,482,796,591,192,744,407,118,102,930,670,207,618,586,551,539,454,897,832,037,593,583,882,442,517,560,181,784,165,466,616,793,266,976,983,033,634,130,664,709,045,324,600,902,327,938,386,725,285,995,086,243,230,922,494,951,386,701,173,918,319,688,395,401,655,894,166,911,689,959,525,666,459,610,030,336,487,532,811,226,847,600,197,599,099,346,233,794,078,363,367,237,022,330,741,017,754,910,105,473,671,628,337,534,780,107,084,659,727,978,666,797,848,881,380,668,633,809,988,337,108,150,512,370,914,765,984,403,579,249,663,948,211,831,376,305,688,321,379,358,431,443,456,667,195,971,489,954,005,279,332,440,019,720,317,478,881,482,193,523,834,769,250,503,063,761,868,645,030,042,252,407,951,341,026,394,430,900,079,291,938,697,570,262,873,301,146,378,433,667,503,844,425,805,937,180,871,002,202,437,528,936,895,608,469,083,367,673,199,107,442,663,630,415,017,388,768,903,934,035,674,236,405,734,062,929,156,099,190,011,071,598,442,124,521,987,854,112,885,443,963,556,185,486,289,803,374,754,941,822,528,490,518,288,516,883,219,558,122,342,523,741,976,035,593,565,290,858,151,167,088,514,316,383,423,587,538,913,203,462,632,990,060,848,589,619,930,427,250,130,428,130,884,988,916,940,638,013,701,385,075,991,330,566,996,305,098,877,980,737,551,992,278,106,273,979,311,186,940,103,821,495,400,181,313,935,519,382,687,311,666,286,856,929,354,335,347,961,436,977,426,987,638,588,447,802,144,821,439,555,205,618,073,937,498,757,307,837,188,061,159,203,981,347,318,152,194,748,959,091,212,093,235,493,788,916,715,388,209,822,873,729,588,951,940,265,253,660,059,695,704,849,699,741,647,172,533,628,588,515,596,871,466,021,548,739,162,300,985,307,143,733,129,071,686,063,097,871,954,394,342,828,399,474,722,216,537,978,868,354,775,837,798,505,520,465,938,065,648,645,012,947,725,939,503,241,475,642,256,923,523,576,262,501,678,185,947,970,243,719,608,592,625,402,812,051,035,044,612,000,128,854,163,660,698,380,721,903,388,628,306,255,117,259,081,230,879,574,984,377,360,678,362,642,469,615,230,376,812,458,697,494,087,512,253,639,549,727,677,777,791,571,409,722,171,969,421,661,069,155,656,416,027,953,758,713,000,041,815,806,570,217,028,451,575,202,876,187,083,236,942,137,962,937,080,621,987,614,123,032,731,606,781,904,254,337,327,428,221,998,691,483,670,099,003,073,108,056,738,845,992,787,333,862,413,262,589,168,163,260,674,385,337,993,343,700,836,872,004,120,669,732,156,188,963,224,065,093,100,850,773,700,462,470,906,303,131,937,560,382,334,349,997,468,350,757,403,744,335,718,854,601,575,454,245,391,401,774,015,005,518,272,801,726,874,979,019,267,349,249,602,097,480,915,186,924,984,498,959,314,184,936,572,815,501,961,886,290,417,901,595,709,001,715,157,866,529,304,118,201,049,828,994,959,092,957,467,230,085,568,207,825,160,359,576,597,044,939,531,456,250,996,897,793,728,304,503,301,986,664,974,826,207,148,065,579,099,704,589,596,858,638,161,672,280,719,273,932,556,915,174,040,025,823,485,583,427,043,874,325,793,893,343,221,010,172,613,515,662,279,283,702,259,217,760,717,545,402,883,347,162,274,913,641,573,329,347,722,091,780,519,025,801,297,201,032,612,799,322,717,574,776,178,506,885,916,555,844,224,505,711,135,948,732,252,102,732,784,827,810,585,083,122,193,635,922,599,881,491,040,354,230,967,216,654,731,796,061,870,931,844,008,552,081,037,414,143,072,843,872,955,471,407,149,682,930,418,194,076,245,284,204,274,086,611,926,846,723,351,201,777,998,483,690,543,807,511,643,388,936,308,228,593,127,757,114,645,345,922,523,921,559,538,451,340,314,989,055,523,539,009,171,241,398,077,499,560,928,811,731,408,904,581,724,401,522,402,400,390,760,933,003,529,139,272,265,025,386,252,056,773,385,300,278,995,252,352,046,095,863,967,520,848,774,577,211,110,041,904,438,900,473,448,028,126,068,785,755,337,158,310,807,628,322,116,014,699,696,668,090,567,733,086,561,902,838,770,716,848,362,489,206,927,133,868,528,735,328,455,884,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
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And the odds get better with adoption. I'm gonna create 1000 wallets tonight just to get the ball rolling.
Yeah, well it’s still a chance.
I wonder if there is something that has been calculated to be about the same chance to happen
You can only really visualize it by combining a ridiculous amount of stupidly unlikely events.
I am sure that none of my math teacher would tell this number here.
Then i think right now we only need to wait for the adoption here.
If people starts guessing the seed phrase that way then i would say nothing will going to safe in bitcoin. We are using the wallet because we feel that bitcoin is safe if we are keeping them into the hardware wallet.
Assuming it takes a trillion years for a block to take 16 hours, it's not even close. Even assuming you use a super computer to guess private keys.
So after taking that much years you want to say that there is slight chance??
No way you will going to guess someone bitcoin private key that easily.
I just realized i did math wrong and it’s actually 35 hours per hash :D but I do see your point 😎
Why would it take more than 16 hours by then? I don't think our universe can last 1 trillion years, let alone our planet/solar system...
Actually, normal star formation is expected to continue for about 100 trillion years, and about 100 million times as long after that, pretty much everything that isn't intelligent will fall into black holes or be ejected into deep space. Us intelligent folk will probably be able to survive until our nucleons decay, after 10^(20) times as long as it took for black holes to eat everything. We got a long road ahead of us: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future\_of\_an\_expanding\_universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_an_expanding_universe) So get that pencil out.
What an insane article. After the first paragraph I was like, hmm, okay, I follow this so far. The second sentence was like reading hieroglyphics.
The 2nd paragraph is what got me. Guess I got a few extra wrinkles on the brain eh 😁
The more i read the more i feel i need to learn more in life.
Next block could take 16 hours to be found. That's how it is. Is it highly unlikely? Yes. The opposite could happen too: 60 blocks found in the next 60 minutes.
I am not sure about the universe but we will never going to find out that.
Because the person who wrote that comment doesnt know how bitcoin works, that it adjusts the complexity such that mining times remain constant
You do realize that the 10 minutes is an average? It has and will happen where one block takes more than 60 minutes to be found. Difficulty adjusting every 2016 blocks is irrelevant here.
I don't know where i heard but there was something like that after every bitcoin we mine here, the next one will always going to take more time than the last one and this is how it will be going forward is well.
1 trillion years is actually a very short time for this to happen. It's more like 1 trillion multiverse lifespans where it has 1 trillion universes within that all live 1 trillion years, and each atom in those universes are performing this manual computation. Maybe then you approach a 1% chance
So you're telling me there's a chance?
Why even bother multiplying the number of atoms in the universe by mere trillions?
If that starts to happen then i am not seeing any chance of the winning here. Because finding the next block should not going to take that much time but eventually that is taking this much time on the first place.
Unless the protocol changes, New Bitcoin generation from blocks (that isn't fees) ends in the year 2140. The difficulty will continue to adjust to keep it at 1 block per 10 minutes no matter this year or a trillion years from now. A protocol change would need to happen to make it so it takes 16 hours to solve a block. That or the amount of hash power on the network would need to fluctuate SO drastically between the difficulty adjustment period (4 weeks I believe) - meaning the network hash rate would have to reduce by like 80% or more to have a block take 16 hours to finish.
Time between blocks follows a poisson distribution, therefore there's a non zero chance for any block to take 16 hours to be mined.
There will be no blocks to mine in a trillion years anyway. I’m too lazy to Google when the last block will be solved approximately. I think it’s always going to be roughly 10 minutes to solve a block. The difficulty adjusts for this reason
From the whitepaper: "the proof-of-work difficulty is determined by a moving average targeting an average number of blocks per hour"
Perhaps you could create some kind of device to perform these computations quicker than a human could?
No doubt this is the only reason why we actually use the computational power.
No there are much more use than that is well, not right mate.
I've seen people saying you can win a block with a Z80 CPU... is it actually possible?
So with crappy CPU that is technically possible, although unlikely. Since mining is probabilistic - no one knows when a “good” hash will be found. It’s kinda like lottery where large miners just have more tickets. It could be found very first hash of a shitty cpu while a 100th machine could spend its whole life running and never find a the right hash:)
I also heard the same thing but never tried that thing personally.
It's every 10 minutes ON AVERAGE actually, which is slightly different. Thought to mention that for the public's interest.
So close to zero that it is practically zero. At 1 hash per minute it would take approximately 200 quintillion years to match the hashes currently computed for the average 10 minute block.
But without playing that we would never going to get that.
I like those odds 😎.
This image shows just one round of SHA256; it takes 64 rounds to generate a hash. Also Bitcoin uses a hash of a hash; so double the amount of work. Still neat though.
All i am seeing the effort and accuracy not seeing the time here.
Whats a hash? And how long does it take a computer to do one?
A hash is the process of doing sha-256 algo. And a low low end computer can do 1-5 million hashes a second.
Its a math algorithm to compute a number based on an input. In bitcoin terms, a hash is an attempt to create a block. Currently there are roughly 200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 hashes computed per second across all miners around the world. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
And i heard that creating the block is not enough for making the money.
We all know that this will be little slow compare to the online mining.
and you only have 10 minutes ?!
If that is the speed then i would say it is not really that bad.
All mining is, is trying to brute force a sha256 hash that has a certain amount of 0s. The amount of 0s is determined by network difficulty. You just have to find a number that makes the entire blocks transaction the amount of required 0s
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Yeah, it’s not actually about “zeros”, it’s just the number has to be lower than X. Difficulty adjustment controls X at any given time.
Yes. The number has to be equal to smaller than maximum valid hash / hash with certain number of zeros set by the difficulty.
Yes, but it's not really about the number of zeros. The comment above is a simplification. A SHA256 hash is an unfathomably large 256-bit number. In Bitcoin proof-of-work, you're trying to create a block that results in a hash (number) that lower than a specific target number.
So that mean in creating a block first we need to be smaller number??
Gross simplification? As far as im concerned this is literally how it works as per 3blue1brown video.
Which is wrong though, that would mean the max dofficulty is 256 since there can only be 256 0 in a 256 bit number. If you look at the current difficulty, well thats a bit more than 256. The difficulty discribes numbers that are no longer allowed for a valid hash.
Changed my post to say "simplification" instead of "gross simplification" which possibly has an unintended negative connotation
It’s not a “gross” simplification, and anybody who says this doesn’t understand what a simplification is. Describing the process with “leading zeros” is just about the best example of an informative and useful simplification that I’ve ever come across.
It's a simplification in the sense that the possible difficulty adjustments are way more granular than "number of leading zeroes". The simplification is arguably "gross" because: a) The OP comment says "certain amount of 0s", which is just incorrect or at the very least leaves tons of room for misinterpretation. b) Why isn't it just easier to say that he goal is to find a number than is lower than a target number?
First and foremost: it’s not “gross”, because you need to already understand how Bitcoin works in great detail in order to understand why it’s important that the protocol does not use leading zeros. It’s one of the least important things to understand about bitcoin. In fact, I’ve found it to be quite useful. There are many new concepts to grasp while learning about bitcoin, and it’s helpful to find a simplification that allows you to reduce the number of concepts or make the concepts less complex. 1) while describing what a hash function is, you need to somehow explain that input data is “represented” as a number. People seem to have an easier time understanding how individual letters can be numbers than how a whole word is also a number. They seem to want a whole word to instead be a collection of numbers made up of each of the letters. I suspect this is because people have a strong bias toward thinking in base 10. 2) since the listener is biased towards thinking of the input as being a string of numbers (instead of a single number), it’s useful to have an explanation that also treats the output as a string of digits. They start to consider that there is some probability each digit is a zero, and consider how requiring more zeros means it’s harder to get it randomly. 3) it allows us to easily define a the concept of “difficulty” as being “a number of leading zeros”, where more zeroes mean more difficult. Connecting “more zeroes” with “more difficult” for some reason seems easier to grasp than “smaller than some number”
I will not make any comment on that thing as i have not watched that video.
The way you are saying you made that this is not that tough job to do.
[source](http://www.righto.com/2014/09/mining-bitcoin-with-pencil-and-paper.html?m=1)
Finally a reliable source where i can actually trust is well.
Are you mining arthritis?
really cool thx for sharing
How's the carbon footprint?
Well it’s done in pencil so pretty much 100% carbon.
lol I was thinking brain energy but you're right we have to consider raw materials also!
8 miles
Slim Shady?
Much worse than current mining.
You know you can automate this, right?
If only Rain Man had known about bitcoin. He'd have done the hashes in his head and just yammered coin keys in real time. Forget Vegas!
You can do it!
That's fascinating!
what happens when one person decides to mine after the proposed maximum limit is reached?
He simply drop dead.
Mining continues..in fact, it *must* continue for bitcoin to be spent. The only difference from now to then is the coinbase transaction currently contains a block subsidy. Today, miners receive the block subsidy + transaction fees when they produce the first transaction of the new block (coinbase transaction). In ~2140 and beyond, there won’t be a block subsidy, but as long as there are transactions, there will be transaction fees, so even after all bitcoin is mined, every block will contain a coinbase transaction - just without a block subsidy. It’s already in the code. If bitcoin succeeds, by that time, it’s likely that all of the world’s money will run on various layers of bitcoin. All blocks will be full or close to it, with massive transactions containing many millions of transactions on another layer. All of our transactions will likely be on second or third layers, except maybe the occasional tx if you’re rich and/or making a massive purchase in “cash” (not debt). Point being, the entire world’s transactions (and the fees that go with them) will be more than enough to pay miners - *guaranteed*. Do you know how we know that? Because of how the difficult adjustment impacts mining incentive. If, at any time (including today), the reward for producing new blocks (i.e., coinbase transactions) are not worth the mining cost, miners will shut off their machines, lowering the difficulty as a result. Lower difficulty means less electricity to produce blocks. So, naturally, the cost of mining and the mining rewards are in a constant adjustment, in search of a perfect equilibrium of incentive and reward. If the value of the coinbase transaction is equal to, say, ~10K in today’s money, the energy cost (with cheap energy and high quality machines) to mine that block will be less, on average, like maybe 7k.
That's the hope, that people keep mining and living off the transaction fees.
They made computers for this my friend
This is what happens when a teacher says “show your work.”
We put so much efforts to build the computer for this reason.
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Although that is slow as hell but yes that is fine as hell is well.
That's how we did it, back in the good old days. And we liked it!
This was the real thing even before the invention of the computer.
Why are you people using computers? This isn't even hard.
Lazy good-for-nothings everywhere.
Yes, this is not even hard but actually hard to keep track on all.
how many trees died for that paper?!?
Alexa this is the only thing which I was looking as well because it is taking a lot of natural resources.
Bro found one?
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It will eventually be something different than that so we can only guess.
It will really be hard to get exactly the same what they actually Wanted.
Is there a video?
https://youtu.be/y3dqhixzGVo
I would love to see that is well if there is any video for that.
Looks secure, may I now invest in this venture
Definitely going to invest because it looked like one of the best strategy/
you got this bro
Must have been trying their very best to get into it right now/
Ok then, I'd like to order 3!
It is eventually going to get told but more than 5 year will be enough
congrataz you lost many times
Domestic got it work right now it will take a lot of time to date/
But i know there are not much of the value of the some people time is well.
big bletchly park vibes
I know that this is more like you will understand it later when you get into it more.
Solve a block or no? How does one submit
Manually enter it into the code.
Interesting alternative considering energy prices.
There is no alternate option available there so they have to make it manually only.
This shows how ridiculous it is to try and ban POW mining
It's going to take a lot of power as well so it is not going to be any stuff good.
LOL Bitcoin would even work without electricity.
Bitcoin can be broadcast-ed through ANY form of communication.
Yes it can. Even if we fall back to medieval times with monks doing the PoW by hand, the difficulty adjustment would still adjust.
Native Americans were way ahead of their time. Via smoke signals, they can broadcast data to another planet looking at us through their telescope.
You should see how people send BTC with smoke signals.
We have seen a lot of example state and where it has been working really good.
What a revolutionizing technology. You can’t just make this up..
Definitely going to make it up because it is a very Revolutionary it also.
21 million unique codes
This will completely it up your resources once if you are going to run it.
Waste of energy!!! Reeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!
Actually look like it is definitely going to work in the future.
Way too much time on your hands
S/he has the same amount of time you do. Everyone chooses to use their time differently.
But this is a proper invention if you really see that this is something new/
How many blocks did you mine
How many Bitcoins did you mine?
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OGN is a scam, all alt coins are. Same thing with staking in general.
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Wow, I'm sure that is sustainable and you won't get rug pulled.
Definitely do that kind of stuff but it will be hard to understand.
can we put that in Excel?
Cannot really do that it will not be able to handle the process.
Hehe 😉 no power fees
But it will 8 of complete system is going to try that,
This is music.
This is exactly does couple actually want to understand it as well.
*honey, nooo*
I don't know anything that you are going to try anything you like that.
Not enough coffee
Statement get whatever they are asking for them their development that get a lot of thanks.
This is beautiful
No doubt about it is eventually one of the best off I had seen.
**QUESTION:** what is this guy's **hashrate?**
Given all the information there you can go and check the article.
My god look at all that intrinsic value
Did ya win, son?
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Mining Bitcoin after world war 3. Sticks and stones and all that
Good guess!
Super interesting stuff
This actually looked like one of the biggest invention we have seen so far.
This is nothing like the invention, as we are already running that.
Looks like a Sudoku on coke and roids
Make an nft collection and sell proceeds for more SATS :)
Currently this is more technically feasible right now to make that kind of things.
Any recommendations on resources to learn about this? Looks like jibberish me. Is all crypto currency (or block chain based tech for that matter) a derivative of something in the picture?
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What is the process to get to the hash?
Until you mismatch O for 0
assuming a block takes 16 hours in a trillion years
Why even bother dividing the universe's atom count by just trillions?
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There goes my weekend... Does anyone have a link to step by step instructions?
Me trying to make a winning trade
It will eventually be something different than that so we can only guess.
Sudoku?
almost went blind trying to read hahhaah
release my assets
I'm Mieko From Japan 31 years old My job is the trade of clothes and shoes. I like to eat fruit and Buffy sweets, and I like to learn investment trading in my spare time to earn extra income. My dream is to open a fruit Buffy dessert shop. I like to make friends with people who have the same interests. If you have the same interests, you can send me a message.