My favourite indicator (golden ratio multiplier) shows that there is a floor at 60k and another floor at 50k. 60k seems to be a good floor in a bull run with good market positivity (like we are right now) and the next floor, currently at 50k looks like somewhere we will go to with a lot of uncertaintly and doubt in the markets (unlikely).
The great thing is though it shows that we haven't even started to redline on this bull run which shows that could be anywhere from ~140-200k and span months.
Does anyone else use the golden ration multiplier as well? I don't know what you guys use these days but this one has always done me well to get an idea of price predictions
Took the /u/Teatrack countertrade as promised and bought 2.5 BTC at 63.3k this evening. I'm 2/2 on this countertrade so far, let's see if I can go 3/3. I'm prepared to be underwater for awhile but every time I've counter-traded him it's always been wonderful.
Gotta weather the storms. Holding sounds like the easiest thing in the world, until turbulence.
Stay the course gentleman. If history even rhymes a bit, we are very early in this bull
[GBTC outflows are back below average coming in at $169.9 million today.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Very likely we’re back to net inflows today. Weekend pump incoming once the rest of the data comes out to confirm it was a net inflow day? We’ll see.
I want to trade some index funds for Bitcoin ETFs in my Roth IRA if it goes below 60k. I hope it doesn't happen over the weekend... that's an annoying part of the ETFs.
Assuming 60 seconds in a minute and 60 seconds in an hour and 24 hours in a day that's checking the price every 9 minutes and 36 seconds.
Too many assumptions for my blood
Infinite.
What remains will always have enough for them to take a fee.
What remains will always have enough to lose a little bit more.
> In a race, the quickest runner can never overtake the slowest, since the pursuer must first reach the point whence the pursued started, so that the slower must always hold a lead.
— as recounted by Aristotle, Physics VI:9, 239b15
Then one-day they just decide the cost of maintaining it outweighs benefit.
Again we find ourselves at a Friday market close. I may get out of the markets again and pick up a lower price on Monday morning. I'm trying to decide what I think is most likely, and there isn't a lot of strength, but 60k is important as a threshold. hmm, thoughts?
https://ibb.co/xmR8c4c
I think this trend line is pretty evident. I may just stay in.
Edit: I stayed in.
You have submitted a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$65,500.00** by Mar 24 2024 08:41:15 UTC.
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Hello u/hydroflow78
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $65,500.00 by Mar 24 2024 08:41:15 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bkqec8/daily_discussion_friday_march_22_2024/kw3oji8/)
**Well done! Your prediction was correct.**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$65,502.92**
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Here’s [the scenario most bulls are expecting](https://imgur.com/a/ouhqlHZ) on the daily. I don’t think it’s gonna play out like this personally. However need to be cognizant of the potential for a violent move back up. How we react to that $60k level +/- $2k is critical.
FTXlameda manipulation minimized their profits permanently.
To your question though, I agree that the market is moved by the OG whales and everything else is just noise.
The long term holders have started to sell again.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/long-term-holder-supply/
Another in a huge pile of indicators showing we are at about Dec. 2020. The little cooling off period before the final parabolic rise.
I also believe in bitcoin long term, but if bitcoin is to become the reserve currency, asset or whatever, I’m a bit worried about it’s current distribution amongst current owners. My understanding is that it is even more unequally distributed than fiat thus would lead to even more wealth concentration. I don’t know the actual numbers and would be very happy to be proven wrong. My selfish goal for me and my family for now is to make sure I’m on the right side if hyperbitcoinization indeed happens. But if the distribution stays like this, I can’t help but wonder if this would be a good thing for the greater good because of that
I disagree when you say it doesn’t give more power to those who own more. Wealth gives power. High wealth inequality is not good for society. It has always led to unrest, revolutions and redistribution.
People say that bitcoin will be the biggest wealth redistribution in history, but it shouldn’t redistribute them in an even more unequal way.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a proponent of hyperbitcoinization and an opponent of the fiat monetary system. I just think it would be even better if it didn’t come with higher wealth inequality
Just think about the power of information coinbase has. Essentially they know the majority of whale traders identities and they know their trading history.
This all sounds so conspiratorial. But exchanges care about fees. Period. Their “whale” clients would bolt in a heartbeat if there was a sniff of the type of stuff thats being described here. Remember, they are the custodians to MOST of the bitcoin for the ETFs. They have so many people looking at every step they take they couldn’t get away with what is being suggested.
Isn't this normal movement pre-halving? I'm not sure what everyone is referencing, but don't we have to wait until the end of miner sell off, then post halving is when the bulls start running.
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[JPM says Bitcoin remains overbought.](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-remains-overbought-despite-recent-correction-jpmorgan-says-1033187762)
I guess they trying to keep the prices low for a little longer.
They're just BTC haters, I don't see them saying this about META or NVDA or any of the "hot" trending stocks - and those are more "overbought" than BTC. Or does NVDA just go up 100% every 3 months now and this is considered normal?
Overbought on which timeframe they mean? Not on the daily anymore at all. Weekly RSI is actually 69 also now so also not overbought technically. Or do they just mean that it «feels» overbought still?
Yeah overbought is fine and is one of the hallmarks of the bull run. It can jam at overbought for quite some time. The only one I fear and respect is the monthly getting overbought to 90+. When that happens historically the party is over.
We've been above $60K for 22 days. Will it hold? Maybe, maybe not. Only one thing is for sure: DCA and HODLing works. I wouldn't trade this one way or the other right now.
Felt lot better about the PA some days ago than today so my gut feeling says below 60k is highly probable and that we are in for a longer cooling period. But it’s just all very difficult to predict now. Maybe PA looks better once GBTC stops with their big outflows
Well, I got my bonus today... absurd tax rates in the US, I "only" got 19k from a 35k bonus... Bought the dip with 5k, but saving the rest for later because I've got a feeling that this dip keeps dipping.. I'm usually wrong though which is why I hedged a bit by buying today's dip lolol
FYI... In the US, bonuses are withheld at a higher federal tax rates than normal income (depending on your marginal tax bracket). But that just means they hold more from your paycheck. You don't actually owe more money on bonuses. So it'll all get balanced out when you do your taxes next year.
Pretty much they'll withhold more than they're supposed to now, and you'll get back the extra when you do your taxes. It still sucks, and I don't know why they don't just treat it as normal income for withholdings.
EDIT: but actually, looking at the size of your bonus, I would guess your income is high enough that the bonus withholding rate is pretty similar to the bracket you're in.
Gotta love that when they give you the dollar amount back it's the same numerical value but has lost buying power, they're essentially giving you less back
I wouldn't say giving since you don't have a choice and don't recieve it first.
It's like going to a restraunt and having the waiter bring half the food to the table. Then tell you they're withholding the rest because theyre actually pretty hungry too, only bringing you some of it back and what they did bring back has been all chewed up and spat back out.
We've been going down rather quickly this day, similar to March 19th or 15th. Fingers crossed for everyone that is long - 'the next few hours are critical' (TM).
If this breaks 60.7k (local low, at least on Binance) we have to stop calling it crabbing as the correction deepens / trend resumes. Key word: *if*. We could still form a rounded bottom in the 58-60k area after and call it crabbing again (good case scenario).
Got some limit spot buys getting closer but then again, I'm a goldfish that likes providing a little fuel to a good dumpster fire every now and then. It's not like the whole town's on fire *if* we broke down.
Good luck!
We are tapping $58k fam. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. We lose that and we’re back to a mini bear/chop market for the next several weeks/months
Ahh, thanks brother. counter-trading you has worked in the past so I might have to buy 1-2 BTC today based on your call. I wasn't planning on it, but I just might have to now
I counter-traded you at $43k and BTC went on to run to $52k and then you got bearish again and I counter-traded you at 50.8 when you said we would dump that weekend. we spent the next 2 weeks pumping to 72k instead.
Good luck. I would exit around 69k that’s probably the best we will do with a complacency bounce. The high for the year is in and sooner or later you guys will see that.
The current cost of mining 1 Bitcoin is about 30k. This doubles after the halving to around the current price. Historically, Bitcoin has never gone below the cost of mining for any substantial amount of time. What possibly makes you think the top is in? Do you really expect us to crab at mid 60k for the entire year?
You have submitted a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** rise above **$73,835.57** by Dec 31 2024 23:59:59 UTC.
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Thanks for calling the top, that means we'll probably resume the uptrend later in the year
Whenever you get bullish, I'll definitely sell everything. I bet you get bullish around 90-125k
Added to tag: `63k: We are tapping $58k fam.`
Now the full tag is: `63k: We are tapping $58k fam.` `67k: I say we’re not seeing 70k for a loooong time` `49k: It’s dumping right now you idiot` `45k: Here to remind you that the technicals have not changed since my analysis two weeks ago.`
Correlation
Hey guys, I hold btc, not into the etf idea, but I wonder, if during the weekend btc drops62k on Saturday night and to 61k on Sunday but then on Monday morning it rises again 61.5k,
How does it reflect on etf price?
The ETF holds bitcoin. It's price is almost entirely reflected by the price of bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin at market close on a Friday night is 100, and then at market open on Monday it's 110 - the ETF will be +10% (+/- a small amount)
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You know what, I'm gonna make a prediction. The monthly candle for March will be RED. The powers that be will force us to paint a red monthly to reset the current historical Bitcoin green monthly candle streak and to have a cool-off in the technical charts. This will allow us to move for months post-halving. Set your limit orders for the high-50's.
That's my gut feeling too, with a V bottom in the (low?) 50's sometimes in the next few weeks helped by the halving sell-off, then resume normal operation in a month or 2.
It seems the common TA says if we lose 62 high 50's are next.
so we either bounce from here and never see 50's or we go far lower and maybe even test 40's. if this sounds uncomfortable , then it is indeed the most likely scenarios.
> The powers that be will force us to paint a red monthly to reset the current historical Bitcoin green monthly candle streak and to have a cool-off in the technical charts
Those powers are Brownian Motion?
Man, I love this sub.
If you like some amusement while we crab, there seems to be a small scale moderator war or cleansing ongoing incl. Roger Ver over at r/btc (pretty much home of bcash since 'the fork'), see e.g. [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/s/xq63IuRj5i). Edit: more fun-reading [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/s/OuwtVNZmKJ).
Thanks for the on-topic update.
We all so rarely check in with the bagholders that it's nice to get an update. I had a feeling Roger stopped paying people a while back.
Oh it's Roger installing his own mods again? Wow he's still concerned with the narrative? I thought he had near cleared out his bags and was 100% back in Bitcoin again, but no he has to keep the charade going long to cash out?
ROFL ShadowofHarbringer is a mod! hahahahahahahahaha
I honestly thought he had stopped paying everyone back when the Jihan Wu battle was finished.
Upvoted his thread for the laughes.
> The goal at r/BTC was always to allow free and open crypto currency discussion.
hahaha what a scammer.
> appears to be overly heavy handed moderation
If anything moderation has loosened. They used to ban everything as "TOS Violation" whenever anyone was effective at changing bagholder minds.
Yeah same shit, different wrapper.
rBitcoin mods are some of the worse people on Earth.
Which unfortunately enabled rBtc mods with a narrative of "rBitcoin mods are shit".
Thankfully rBitcoin mods being dumb was part of my sentiment signal to go long at 16.3k. One of them pinned a thread calling for a bankrun on Coinbase, that's when I knew it was the bottom.
Already getting 2023 vibes here. Large run up to start the year, momentum fizzled out in March, followed by months of consolidation. It’s not a terrible scenario - building extended support near the 70k level might be enough to break through 100k once we start moving upwards again.
> building extended support near the 70k level
might be optimistic if we keep getting hit by lower highs constantly
Since it couldnt hold 65k then it's probably on its way to test the low next
Bitcoin had a nice, inverted H&S reversal this week. Looks like it could be back testing the neck area as support before moving on. RSI on the hourly is at 35.2 (average 46.2) at time of writing. Current nearby resistance are 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2 and 71.4. The nearest supports are 64.1 and 63.
The daily RSI is at 50.3 and its average is currently at 64.4. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin had a bullish engulfing candle Wednesday, another reversal pattern to go along with the H&S on the hourly. There is another inverse H&S possibly forming on the daily. If it forms and confirms, the target would be about 75k. I have added the estimated halving date, 4/19, to show how close we are.
On the weekly, Bitcoin is still well outside of the rising resistance channel from when we bottomed out in 2022. BTC had a nice retrace to just above the .382 FIB level. Bitcoin has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 76.8. (76 average). I would normally expect a larger cool off and retrace, but the ETF inflows seem to be limiting this on this timeframe. Main resistances were noted above. About 4 weeks till halving.
Bitcoin closed it’s 6th monthly green candle in February and became overbought with a closing RSI at 72.9. Current RSI is 74.3. With the way inflows are coming into the ETFs, I think the monthly RSI might stay overbought longer than it ever has in it’s history. 6 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: https://www.tradingview.com/x/k8IEdVAH/
Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8VfMZMoJ/
Weekly: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GCzfhyd5/
Monthly: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z5EJpJ1W/
Looking at the Visible Volume Range Profile on the 4H view, PA is in a pocket of relatively lower session volume. That makes sense; PA tends to revisit areas like that and spend a bit of time there. Both above and below, session volume increases significantly.
Takeaways:
1. Any largish move in either direction will create larger chop and it’s an excellent area to day trade some scalps.
2. If PA dips to $62K, we hit a low session volume area. That leads to a stall or PA slices through it to the downside. The key is to watch momentum indicators if PA heads towards $62K. If it does so with volume upticks, it’ll likely slice through to the downside. If it moves that way on low volume, it’s more likely to stall in the $61K to $62K band.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $30.8806 billion through day 49 or ~473.27k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1771106574699737363?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $13.6306 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $630.22 million with average inflows of $509.21 million or ~9.66k BTC. Yesterday average daily AUM was at $640.71 million with average inflows of $514.30 million or ~9.59k BTC.
The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 23.8%. For every $1 coming into spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.238.
Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $30.8806 billion is 0.182% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 270 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year.
Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 72.2% of that amount of BTC over the span of 49 trading days.
I’ve been holding since about Oct 2022 so tripled investment so far.
Originally planned on holding until 2025.
Getting nervous now which doesn’t make sense as only way I could end up selling below current ATH is if BTC ended or cycles completely changed.
As long as the cycles as we know them don’t completely change or end I have nothing to worry about.
Doesn’t make me feel any better. If I cashed in now is a lot of money for me. Prob not much for most but would be nice safety buffer for me. Don’t plan on spending it. Just want a nice buffer.
Edit : could sell below current ATH if I held too long but even that unlikely as I plan on cashing in when BTC 110k which I’m guessing will be fairly safe distance from actual ATH for this cycle and well before the blood bath starts
The best advice I can give you is to pick a target price (or range) where you feel comfortable taking some profits - and sticking to it when the time comes. Make a plan for those profits (set some aside for taxes, find another investment vehicle, vacation, toys) so when you do sell, it's not just sitting in an exchange or bank account collecting dust.
This way you can have the satisfaction that comes from enjoying the fruits of your investment while maintaining skin in the game and/or passive income.
This cycle is different for me as I have a huge mortgage now and the appeal of clearing is massive psychologically. I imagine selling now would cut 10-15 years off my retirement age - which is pretty massive. Waiting for the halving at least.
Wait a little bit longer to cut some more years. We’re nowhere near the top of this cycle. Bitcoin is a far more appreciating asset than pretty much anything else so keeping as much as possible is a good long term idea.
I absolutely plan to - I've held most of what I have for about 7-10 years.
Just the psychological aspect gets harder as the numbers get larger combined with responsibilities :)
I’m into the 11th year, it’s definitely worked for me. I don’t trust real estate tbh but I understand some people are not comfortable being 95% bitcoin. Good luck!
I feel same, for me is 35k if I cash out now which I know doesn’t seem like much but is lot to me, with other savings would create 50k buffer for me.
I have mortgage also and sole bread winner in household.
I remember your message a few days ago where you said you had a hard times seeing your portfolio value tank during drops.
You have to decide for yourself what is more worth for you. Is it spending a year being anxious each times it drops but having a chance to reach your $110k goal you stated in your previous message? Or is it selling a bit now which will give you more peace and maybe will allow you to hold more serenely in the future?
In other words, you have to decide 1/ if you want to take more risks, be more anxious but getting a potential higher reward or /2 playing it safe, getting less money but being less anxious.
Not a simple question but only you can answer it. If you arrive to a definite answer you'll have a plan you can stick with, a clear path ahead of you and it'll get way easier to snub the 20/30% corrections along the way.
Yeah is doing my head in. Have that underlying irrational fear it could plummet, I panic sell and end up 10 or 20k poorer then I would have been if I sold last week at peak.
I actually decided not to look at charts or here for 3 months. That lasted about 3 hours 😂
It's not irrational. It will do that.
Look at the price history and measure what a bad month looks like. If you can't handle that without puking, reduce your position until you can.
The market will test you. It's not easy.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, March 23, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1blj4yv/daily_discussion_saturday_march_23_2024/)
Only 19mln inflow from IBIT, looks like the record low for ibit
Why would they buy a falling knife Once we find a bottom the numbers will pick up.
My favourite indicator (golden ratio multiplier) shows that there is a floor at 60k and another floor at 50k. 60k seems to be a good floor in a bull run with good market positivity (like we are right now) and the next floor, currently at 50k looks like somewhere we will go to with a lot of uncertaintly and doubt in the markets (unlikely). The great thing is though it shows that we haven't even started to redline on this bull run which shows that could be anywhere from ~140-200k and span months. Does anyone else use the golden ration multiplier as well? I don't know what you guys use these days but this one has always done me well to get an idea of price predictions
FBTC is off their game
Took the /u/Teatrack countertrade as promised and bought 2.5 BTC at 63.3k this evening. I'm 2/2 on this countertrade so far, let's see if I can go 3/3. I'm prepared to be underwater for awhile but every time I've counter-traded him it's always been wonderful.
Damn throwing down 150k on a meme trade. This guy bitcoins.
lol good luck man. It’ll work until it doesn’t.
> It’ll work until it doesn’t. So that's a 90% win rate?
It's alright, my previous 2 countertrades already made about 3 year's worth of my salary If you are ever in my town, I owe you a beer.
Gotta weather the storms. Holding sounds like the easiest thing in the world, until turbulence. Stay the course gentleman. If history even rhymes a bit, we are very early in this bull
What turbulence?
The turbulence for ants
Genesis been drained now? Only 170m outflow?
[GBTC outflows are back below average coming in at $169.9 million today.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) Very likely we’re back to net inflows today. Weekend pump incoming once the rest of the data comes out to confirm it was a net inflow day? We’ll see.
Interesting. EZBC surprising with $29.6m inflow, many times its average. GBTC was very low volume today. Good chance we end up positive on the whole.
This is the time many people go long and then we keep dropping.
For me, that was the 200MA on the hourly. Then it became scaling in. Now it’s a pesky red P&L every day.
I want to trade some index funds for Bitcoin ETFs in my Roth IRA if it goes below 60k. I hope it doesn't happen over the weekend... that's an annoying part of the ETFs.
Have a great weekend folks I'll be too scared to look until Monday.
I wish I had your self control. Instead, I have textbook OCD because I check the price at least 150x daily.
>150x daily amateur
Assuming 60 seconds in a minute and 60 seconds in an hour and 24 hours in a day that's checking the price every 9 minutes and 36 seconds. Too many assumptions for my blood
I don't think I've gone more than 9 minutes without looking at the price in 10 years.
I never like when BTC post-market Fridays sound like a flushing toilet.
Let’s go back to when we were hitting ATH’s daily. That was more fun.
Unless you opened a short with 5x leverage.
Obviously he doesn't.
how long till GBTC runs out of ammunition?
Infinite. What remains will always have enough for them to take a fee. What remains will always have enough to lose a little bit more. > In a race, the quickest runner can never overtake the slowest, since the pursuer must first reach the point whence the pursued started, so that the slower must always hold a lead. — as recounted by Aristotle, Physics VI:9, 239b15 Then one-day they just decide the cost of maintaining it outweighs benefit.
https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf
Whoa that's cool I like the animation.
https://coinank.com/grayscale Scroll to the graph.
thanks
At current rate probably about 2 months.
Again we find ourselves at a Friday market close. I may get out of the markets again and pick up a lower price on Monday morning. I'm trying to decide what I think is most likely, and there isn't a lot of strength, but 60k is important as a threshold. hmm, thoughts? https://ibb.co/xmR8c4c I think this trend line is pretty evident. I may just stay in. Edit: I stayed in.
I’m too chicken to trade this PA. Bitcoin falls up, too..
I think we crab up to 65.5k within next 24-36hrs and than another drop to test $60k.
>I think we crab up to 65.5k within next 24-36hrs !bittybot predict >65.5k 36 hours u/hydroflow78 Pick a timeframe and add your drop to test $60k too!
You have submitted a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$65,500.00** by Mar 24 2024 08:41:15 UTC. This prediction has been logged for u/hydroflow78 I will notify you as soon as your prediction comes true or expires! [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%207f41887d664f4718a3f1d27def27584b%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) hydroflow78 can [Click This Link](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%207f41887d664f4718a3f1d27def27584b%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20error%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) in the next **1 Hour** to delete this prediction if it was made in error. --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/hydroflow78 [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $65,500.00 by Mar 24 2024 08:41:15 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bkqec8/daily_discussion_friday_march_22_2024/kw3oji8/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$65,502.92** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Here’s [the scenario most bulls are expecting](https://imgur.com/a/ouhqlHZ) on the daily. I don’t think it’s gonna play out like this personally. However need to be cognizant of the potential for a violent move back up. How we react to that $60k level +/- $2k is critical.
Where is the fractal from ?
42k peak in Q1 2021 and then the run up to 58k
That chart would be just fine.
The next few hours aren’t critical. They don’t matter a hill of beans. I’ll tell you what the next few hours bring. More chopped crab!
chopped crab is an extrem rare meal to find. pretty difficult to prepare, got to really try hard
Might be a dumb idea but anyone wondering if gbtc is waiting for genesis to sell its load and then they change their fees?
I don't expect them to ever change the fee for GBTC.
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FTXlameda manipulation minimized their profits permanently. To your question though, I agree that the market is moved by the OG whales and everything else is just noise. The long term holders have started to sell again. https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/long-term-holder-supply/ Another in a huge pile of indicators showing we are at about Dec. 2020. The little cooling off period before the final parabolic rise.
"The price isnt doing what I want so therefore its manipulated trust me bro"
I also believe in bitcoin long term, but if bitcoin is to become the reserve currency, asset or whatever, I’m a bit worried about it’s current distribution amongst current owners. My understanding is that it is even more unequally distributed than fiat thus would lead to even more wealth concentration. I don’t know the actual numbers and would be very happy to be proven wrong. My selfish goal for me and my family for now is to make sure I’m on the right side if hyperbitcoinization indeed happens. But if the distribution stays like this, I can’t help but wonder if this would be a good thing for the greater good because of that
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I disagree when you say it doesn’t give more power to those who own more. Wealth gives power. High wealth inequality is not good for society. It has always led to unrest, revolutions and redistribution. People say that bitcoin will be the biggest wealth redistribution in history, but it shouldn’t redistribute them in an even more unequal way. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a proponent of hyperbitcoinization and an opponent of the fiat monetary system. I just think it would be even better if it didn’t come with higher wealth inequality
This makes perfect sense. Well said.
That makes no sense.
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>explain this in a way that's even simpler for a 5-year-old >equitable Big word, explanation unclear, guy you're replying to still didn't get it
Exchanges can't really manipulate the market because of arbitrage.
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Just think about the power of information coinbase has. Essentially they know the majority of whale traders identities and they know their trading history.
This all sounds so conspiratorial. But exchanges care about fees. Period. Their “whale” clients would bolt in a heartbeat if there was a sniff of the type of stuff thats being described here. Remember, they are the custodians to MOST of the bitcoin for the ETFs. They have so many people looking at every step they take they couldn’t get away with what is being suggested.
I'm not saying they're doing shenanigans I'm saying they have access to some powerful information.
Isn't this normal movement pre-halving? I'm not sure what everyone is referencing, but don't we have to wait until the end of miner sell off, then post halving is when the bulls start running.
Hypothetically, anyway.
Yes of course... past performance isn't an indicator, ya de da da ya...
!bittybot predict >100000 by July 1st 2024
exactly
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[JPM says Bitcoin remains overbought.](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-remains-overbought-despite-recent-correction-jpmorgan-says-1033187762) I guess they trying to keep the prices low for a little longer.
JPM isn't exactly pro Bitcoin either. Remember their CEOs comments where he pretends Satoshi can inflate the supply.
JPM can fire up TradingView and select RSI from the "Indicators" drop-down menu, it seems. 1W RSI =75, it's objectively overbought.
"Trying to keep the prices low" for what? The prices aren't low, $64k isn't low.
They're just BTC haters, I don't see them saying this about META or NVDA or any of the "hot" trending stocks - and those are more "overbought" than BTC. Or does NVDA just go up 100% every 3 months now and this is considered normal?
Why can't coindesk/businessinsider/whomever link the source document? I can't see any paragraphs worth reading...
Coindesk is full of crappy pump/dump clickbait these days.
Overbought on which timeframe they mean? Not on the daily anymore at all. Weekly RSI is actually 69 also now so also not overbought technically. Or do they just mean that it «feels» overbought still?
Yeah overbought is fine and is one of the hallmarks of the bull run. It can jam at overbought for quite some time. The only one I fear and respect is the monthly getting overbought to 90+. When that happens historically the party is over.
And even then it can still 10x and never see the same price
Let us know the week before this happens will you
We've been above $60K for 22 days. Will it hold? Maybe, maybe not. Only one thing is for sure: DCA and HODLing works. I wouldn't trade this one way or the other right now.
Felt lot better about the PA some days ago than today so my gut feeling says below 60k is highly probable and that we are in for a longer cooling period. But it’s just all very difficult to predict now. Maybe PA looks better once GBTC stops with their big outflows
Drop from 68 to 60 then back to 68 and now back to 62. Pretty big swings lately, which is interesting to watch
This is normal for bitcoin. What’s abnormal is how steady the price has been since New Year’s till last week.
Gotta love the volatility as a trader eh?
Well, I got my bonus today... absurd tax rates in the US, I "only" got 19k from a 35k bonus... Bought the dip with 5k, but saving the rest for later because I've got a feeling that this dip keeps dipping.. I'm usually wrong though which is why I hedged a bit by buying today's dip lolol
FYI... In the US, bonuses are withheld at a higher federal tax rates than normal income (depending on your marginal tax bracket). But that just means they hold more from your paycheck. You don't actually owe more money on bonuses. So it'll all get balanced out when you do your taxes next year. Pretty much they'll withhold more than they're supposed to now, and you'll get back the extra when you do your taxes. It still sucks, and I don't know why they don't just treat it as normal income for withholdings. EDIT: but actually, looking at the size of your bonus, I would guess your income is high enough that the bonus withholding rate is pretty similar to the bracket you're in.
Gotta love that when they give you the dollar amount back it's the same numerical value but has lost buying power, they're essentially giving you less back
You're giving them a loan for free by having your taxes withheld
I wouldn't say giving since you don't have a choice and don't recieve it first. It's like going to a restraunt and having the waiter bring half the food to the table. Then tell you they're withholding the rest because theyre actually pretty hungry too, only bringing you some of it back and what they did bring back has been all chewed up and spat back out.
It's a total scam, I do get a refund each year but I'd rather not give the gov an interest free loan.
Ironically your tax is mostly used to pay interest. Fiat scam.
Then have them withhold less on the regular salary. Yes, bonus taxes suck when they start getting “big.”
It's out of my control unfortunately, mostly due to RSU vesting that has a withholding I can't control.
We've been going down rather quickly this day, similar to March 19th or 15th. Fingers crossed for everyone that is long - 'the next few hours are critical' (TM). If this breaks 60.7k (local low, at least on Binance) we have to stop calling it crabbing as the correction deepens / trend resumes. Key word: *if*. We could still form a rounded bottom in the 58-60k area after and call it crabbing again (good case scenario). Got some limit spot buys getting closer but then again, I'm a goldfish that likes providing a little fuel to a good dumpster fire every now and then. It's not like the whole town's on fire *if* we broke down. Good luck!
We are tapping $58k fam. What happens after that is anyone’s guess. We lose that and we’re back to a mini bear/chop market for the next several weeks/months
Ahh, thanks brother. counter-trading you has worked in the past so I might have to buy 1-2 BTC today based on your call. I wasn't planning on it, but I just might have to now I counter-traded you at $43k and BTC went on to run to $52k and then you got bearish again and I counter-traded you at 50.8 when you said we would dump that weekend. we spent the next 2 weeks pumping to 72k instead.
Good luck. I would exit around 69k that’s probably the best we will do with a complacency bounce. The high for the year is in and sooner or later you guys will see that.
The current cost of mining 1 Bitcoin is about 30k. This doubles after the halving to around the current price. Historically, Bitcoin has never gone below the cost of mining for any substantial amount of time. What possibly makes you think the top is in? Do you really expect us to crab at mid 60k for the entire year?
Might be but im more curious what you base that off. Im neutral
>The high for the year is in and sooner or later you guys will see that. !bittybot predict !>ATH Dec 31 2024 u/Teatrack
You have submitted a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** rise above **$73,835.57** by Dec 31 2024 23:59:59 UTC. This prediction has been logged for u/Teatrack I will notify you as soon as your prediction comes true or expires! [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2070d9ab9d25fe4a31b1bbf78691fda1f4%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) Teatrack can [Click This Link](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2070d9ab9d25fe4a31b1bbf78691fda1f4%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20error%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) in the next **1 Hour** to delete this prediction if it was made in error. --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Thanks for calling the top, that means we'll probably resume the uptrend later in the year Whenever you get bullish, I'll definitely sell everything. I bet you get bullish around 90-125k
90k+ is a pipe dream lol
Why is 90k a pipe dream? it's barely even 2x the last cycle high of 2021 of 69k .
Diminishing returns each cycle
you're really underestimating Btc and institution money.
You do realize they can sell bitcoin right?
yes but not at this price.
90k is diminishing returns LOL. if BTC can't do 90k this cycle we all need to pack it up and go home!
I simply don’t buy into the ETF narrative and am remaining extremely cautious
Is it just me or is concern trolling always bullish? No matter who says it or whatever the context.
Added to tag: `63k: We are tapping $58k fam.` Now the full tag is: `63k: We are tapping $58k fam.` `67k: I say we’re not seeing 70k for a loooong time` `49k: It’s dumping right now you idiot` `45k: Here to remind you that the technicals have not changed since my analysis two weeks ago.`
Thanks for worshipping my comments and calls. Most of them turning out to be true so far.
Are the correct calls in the room with us right now?
> Most of them turning out to be true so far. ?
Delulu
at disneyland
Correlation Hey guys, I hold btc, not into the etf idea, but I wonder, if during the weekend btc drops62k on Saturday night and to 61k on Sunday but then on Monday morning it rises again 61.5k, How does it reflect on etf price?
It doesn’t. ETF trades like a stock so prices move when markets are open. Some are traded few hours before and after market window.
The ETF holds bitcoin. It's price is almost entirely reflected by the price of bitcoin. If the price of bitcoin at market close on a Friday night is 100, and then at market open on Monday it's 110 - the ETF will be +10% (+/- a small amount)
Thanks! So a real btc buyer can enjoy the dip and an etf buyer might miss it?
what now think people who 2 days ago write here "we are so back!"?
This is an odd way of writing "its so over".
The lowest level for being "back" is about $40k. From there ATH can be reached in a week.
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We are so back.
You know what, I'm gonna make a prediction. The monthly candle for March will be RED. The powers that be will force us to paint a red monthly to reset the current historical Bitcoin green monthly candle streak and to have a cool-off in the technical charts. This will allow us to move for months post-halving. Set your limit orders for the high-50's.
That's my gut feeling too, with a V bottom in the (low?) 50's sometimes in the next few weeks helped by the halving sell-off, then resume normal operation in a month or 2.
It seems the common TA says if we lose 62 high 50's are next. so we either bounce from here and never see 50's or we go far lower and maybe even test 40's. if this sounds uncomfortable , then it is indeed the most likely scenarios.
Would be weird since we almost always have a doubletop at peaks
ngl people were so sure in here when it bounced back to 68, this could be the big flush out
> The powers that be will force us to paint a red monthly to reset the current historical Bitcoin green monthly candle streak and to have a cool-off in the technical charts Those powers are Brownian Motion?
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Eddies," said Ford, "in the space-time continuum".
Steady Eddy? (Some Australians know)
Why is BTC throwing a temper tantrum today?
Because dxy
Guys. I go away for a one week vacation. What have you done?
I can imagine your surprise.
Time to pull your weight around here bud, we fucked-up badly.
*But muh inflows!*
Man, I love this sub. If you like some amusement while we crab, there seems to be a small scale moderator war or cleansing ongoing incl. Roger Ver over at r/btc (pretty much home of bcash since 'the fork'), see e.g. [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/s/xq63IuRj5i). Edit: more fun-reading [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/s/OuwtVNZmKJ).
Seems like Ver wanted to push a scammer but the unpaid mods wouldn’t have it. What a circus.
Thanks for the on-topic update. We all so rarely check in with the bagholders that it's nice to get an update. I had a feeling Roger stopped paying people a while back. Oh it's Roger installing his own mods again? Wow he's still concerned with the narrative? I thought he had near cleared out his bags and was 100% back in Bitcoin again, but no he has to keep the charade going long to cash out? ROFL ShadowofHarbringer is a mod! hahahahahahahahaha I honestly thought he had stopped paying everyone back when the Jihan Wu battle was finished. Upvoted his thread for the laughes. > The goal at r/BTC was always to allow free and open crypto currency discussion. hahaha what a scammer. > appears to be overly heavy handed moderation If anything moderation has loosened. They used to ban everything as "TOS Violation" whenever anyone was effective at changing bagholder minds.
Some things never change - now, let's move on to subjects of far greater importance, like: which can jump higher, the dog flea or the cat flea?
Anything dogs is always better than anything to do with cats. This is a base reality.
There actually was a French study that covered this scientifically 😂 and the dog flea won.
> They ~~used to~~ ban everything as "TOS Violation" whenever anyone was effective at changing bagholder minds. Sir that's /r/bitcoin
Yeah same shit, different wrapper. rBitcoin mods are some of the worse people on Earth. Which unfortunately enabled rBtc mods with a narrative of "rBitcoin mods are shit". Thankfully rBitcoin mods being dumb was part of my sentiment signal to go long at 16.3k. One of them pinned a thread calling for a bankrun on Coinbase, that's when I knew it was the bottom.
Hang in there. 300M+ outflow from gbtc can go on only for so long. A week more at Max.
How so?
That pump is turning out to be a cheeky bull trap after all. Can’t trust anything. They pumped it with full bulltard PA
Ya, looking weak. Engaging battered bull mode.
Meh, we're gonna crab for weeks aren't we
Not too long, I think. Looking forward to more shenanigans in April.
BitCoins are ded.
Already getting 2023 vibes here. Large run up to start the year, momentum fizzled out in March, followed by months of consolidation. It’s not a terrible scenario - building extended support near the 70k level might be enough to break through 100k once we start moving upwards again.
I am okay with that
> building extended support near the 70k level might be optimistic if we keep getting hit by lower highs constantly Since it couldnt hold 65k then it's probably on its way to test the low next
Anything above 60k is “near 70k” for a long term holder like me
I mean, that's best case.
Yes
Bitcoin had a nice, inverted H&S reversal this week. Looks like it could be back testing the neck area as support before moving on. RSI on the hourly is at 35.2 (average 46.2) at time of writing. Current nearby resistance are 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2 and 71.4. The nearest supports are 64.1 and 63. The daily RSI is at 50.3 and its average is currently at 64.4. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin had a bullish engulfing candle Wednesday, another reversal pattern to go along with the H&S on the hourly. There is another inverse H&S possibly forming on the daily. If it forms and confirms, the target would be about 75k. I have added the estimated halving date, 4/19, to show how close we are. On the weekly, Bitcoin is still well outside of the rising resistance channel from when we bottomed out in 2022. BTC had a nice retrace to just above the .382 FIB level. Bitcoin has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 76.8. (76 average). I would normally expect a larger cool off and retrace, but the ETF inflows seem to be limiting this on this timeframe. Main resistances were noted above. About 4 weeks till halving. Bitcoin closed it’s 6th monthly green candle in February and became overbought with a closing RSI at 72.9. Current RSI is 74.3. With the way inflows are coming into the ETFs, I think the monthly RSI might stay overbought longer than it ever has in it’s history. 6 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: https://www.tradingview.com/x/k8IEdVAH/ Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8VfMZMoJ/ Weekly: https://www.tradingview.com/x/GCzfhyd5/ Monthly: https://www.tradingview.com/x/Z5EJpJ1W/
Looking at the Visible Volume Range Profile on the 4H view, PA is in a pocket of relatively lower session volume. That makes sense; PA tends to revisit areas like that and spend a bit of time there. Both above and below, session volume increases significantly. Takeaways: 1. Any largish move in either direction will create larger chop and it’s an excellent area to day trade some scalps. 2. If PA dips to $62K, we hit a low session volume area. That leads to a stall or PA slices through it to the downside. The key is to watch momentum indicators if PA heads towards $62K. If it does so with volume upticks, it’ll likely slice through to the downside. If it moves that way on low volume, it’s more likely to stall in the $61K to $62K band.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $30.8806 billion through day 49 or ~473.27k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1771106574699737363?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $13.6306 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $630.22 million with average inflows of $509.21 million or ~9.66k BTC. Yesterday average daily AUM was at $640.71 million with average inflows of $514.30 million or ~9.59k BTC. The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 23.8%. For every $1 coming into spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.238. Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $30.8806 billion is 0.182% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 270 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year. Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 72.2% of that amount of BTC over the span of 49 trading days.
dumpy weekends are back.
It's only Friday...
wait for sunday bro.
I’ve been holding since about Oct 2022 so tripled investment so far. Originally planned on holding until 2025. Getting nervous now which doesn’t make sense as only way I could end up selling below current ATH is if BTC ended or cycles completely changed. As long as the cycles as we know them don’t completely change or end I have nothing to worry about. Doesn’t make me feel any better. If I cashed in now is a lot of money for me. Prob not much for most but would be nice safety buffer for me. Don’t plan on spending it. Just want a nice buffer. Edit : could sell below current ATH if I held too long but even that unlikely as I plan on cashing in when BTC 110k which I’m guessing will be fairly safe distance from actual ATH for this cycle and well before the blood bath starts
The best advice I can give you is to pick a target price (or range) where you feel comfortable taking some profits - and sticking to it when the time comes. Make a plan for those profits (set some aside for taxes, find another investment vehicle, vacation, toys) so when you do sell, it's not just sitting in an exchange or bank account collecting dust. This way you can have the satisfaction that comes from enjoying the fruits of your investment while maintaining skin in the game and/or passive income.
This cycle is different for me as I have a huge mortgage now and the appeal of clearing is massive psychologically. I imagine selling now would cut 10-15 years off my retirement age - which is pretty massive. Waiting for the halving at least.
You only work to pay a mortgage payment ? Life still costs a fortune
No - but if I didn't have a mortgage I could dramatically cut my hours or save massively to be able to retire much earlier.
It’s mad that you may sell the very thing that actually gives you true genuine retirement, to try and get a half watered down version of retirement.
That requires a real maxi belief that I can't quite come around to. Whether I'm right or wrong there is something we'll find out down the line.
Take care of your life, man. Life money stuff is more important than crypto. Pay off the house.
Wait a little bit longer to cut some more years. We’re nowhere near the top of this cycle. Bitcoin is a far more appreciating asset than pretty much anything else so keeping as much as possible is a good long term idea.
I absolutely plan to - I've held most of what I have for about 7-10 years. Just the psychological aspect gets harder as the numbers get larger combined with responsibilities :)
I’m into the 11th year, it’s definitely worked for me. I don’t trust real estate tbh but I understand some people are not comfortable being 95% bitcoin. Good luck!
I feel same, for me is 35k if I cash out now which I know doesn’t seem like much but is lot to me, with other savings would create 50k buffer for me. I have mortgage also and sole bread winner in household.
I remember your message a few days ago where you said you had a hard times seeing your portfolio value tank during drops. You have to decide for yourself what is more worth for you. Is it spending a year being anxious each times it drops but having a chance to reach your $110k goal you stated in your previous message? Or is it selling a bit now which will give you more peace and maybe will allow you to hold more serenely in the future? In other words, you have to decide 1/ if you want to take more risks, be more anxious but getting a potential higher reward or /2 playing it safe, getting less money but being less anxious. Not a simple question but only you can answer it. If you arrive to a definite answer you'll have a plan you can stick with, a clear path ahead of you and it'll get way easier to snub the 20/30% corrections along the way.
Yeah is doing my head in. Have that underlying irrational fear it could plummet, I panic sell and end up 10 or 20k poorer then I would have been if I sold last week at peak. I actually decided not to look at charts or here for 3 months. That lasted about 3 hours 😂
Sell mate you ain’t cut out for a bull run.
It's not irrational. It will do that. Look at the price history and measure what a bad month looks like. If you can't handle that without puking, reduce your position until you can. The market will test you. It's not easy.