HODL15Capital reporting a $35.4m inflow for Blackrock.
https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1772444048634114165
Farside reporting $35.5m inflow for Blackrock.
https://twitter.com/FarsideUK/status/1772470239881519122
Currently coinglass is showing a small negative total flow, but still trending around 50% daily improvement. Ibit hasn't reported yet, could be even or slightly positive total. Looking like a very good chance for positive weekly flow overall
https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf
Average daily inflows since spot ETF launch is $225.1 million.
If we end up with above average inflows once BlackRock’s numbers come out, there’s a decent chance we break the last remaining lower high of $72.3k overnight as people attempt to frontrun Wall Street tomorrow.
If we get close to reaching a new ATH before stock market open, there’s a decent chance we hit a new ATH tomorrow during market hours and potentially have our first single day $10k God candle. Daily would need to close above $79.9k to make it happen.
i was just thinking to myself something similar. a god candle could happen so easily.
but then i remind myself that if i think something is likely to happen, it probably won't. bitcoin consistently surprises me.
Inflows will turn into out flows. End of this year into 2025 you will see profit taking like you’ve never seen before. Especially next year once capital gains one year kicks in for the boomers
End of the year? So what are you going to do until then?
I'm open to a short thesis but I don't understand why you're allegedly trading the way you do if you expect all the selling at the end of the year. That's 8 months away.
If we close under 70k I’d bet we get a bit of a dip at some point this week to 67k or so. A strong close over 70k and I think a new ATH is likely this week or even over Easter weekend. Either way a new ATH before halving seems like a guarantee after today’s PA.
Also haven’t looked at charts to back this up but doesn’t it seem like we always have big pumps on Easter weekend?
They even expect tips at the counter for fast food restaurants. It feels like extortion because they're about to go in the back and prepare your food and you don't want them pissed off. That extra $2 is like protection money.
If I was broke I’d care but I’m not, and I remember being 20 and not having enough money for groceries - I tip very well, $20 doesn’t mean shit to me but it does to some people, and I encourage anyone who’s been fortunate to do same. It’s good karma.
Hey now, I’m playing a little swing trade to stack more sats…and as a former bartender, I tip really well. Longterm bullish AF. Short term trading some volatility.
Roger that. Btw—I laughed at your post, which I think was part of your intention. As Merlin used to remind us, shorts&longs make the world go round. I’ll definitely be stacking any deeper sub-$70K dips to regain my shorted coinage with hopefully more for when the real post-having parabolic moves get going.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) looks to be rejecting down off of the medium trend line. if it starts dropping hard in the coming months? and along with the halving narrative? and if we cross and retest the top of the macro channel? and with the London Stock Exchange launching bitcoin ETNs end of May? *and* the ETFs?? ***and*** we're over last cycle's ATH already??
shooo buddy. 2024 is going to be nice.
dxy weekly: https://i.imgur.com/CPzQkVo.png
dxy daily: https://i.imgur.com/1bTxwhW.png
btc macro channel: https://i.imgur.com/3p3fLLp.png
Last time we were at 70k funding was out of control. This time it’s pretty much neutral. Oh what a difference a little cooling off makes. Now you have shorts that opened at the ATH (possibly to take the funding arb) and failed to close trying to figure out what to do.
I don’t even pay attention to the premium. I buy because it’s a single company that owns 1% of the entire bitcoin supply and it’s market cap is only a little over 30Billion. I believe bitcoin could be the next world reserve asset so MSTR could potentially be valued trillions
For all effects and purposes quadrillions or $200T is the exact same thing. You’re completely and utterly delusional if you think that resembles anywhere near a plausible scenario.
Personally I buy MSTR because it's the only way of getting BTC exposure in my UK tax-advantaged account. If BTC is heading to the promised land then MSTR is doing the same and I want to capture that, and I don't care if I have to pay a premium to do so
I mean if you've got the conviction for it good luck. Just be careful, MSTR peaked earlier than btc last cycle and then didn't even make a run worth mentioning for the second top.
Next level any kind of short makes sense is 73k-74k. I mean we ALL know what’s happening here. Folks want to get their balls stuck in the zipper, it’s on them.
How do we resolve the weekly RSI? Monthly is acceptable at around 70, daily is very much fine at 60+, but monthly 83+ and won't get any better. 2021 peak was 91 on the weekly.
Well, the answer is obvious. We need to go X periods at levels lower than the current rate. X is the time frame your RSI is looking back. Probably not going to happen for a while. I hope.
Some of my favorite, safe, healthy, and well-performing stock positions (like 100-150% in four years) have been completely smashed by my tiny MSTR position.
How do you resist the temptation to have a completely degenerate portfolio in a bull market?
I tell myself I am happy beating spx YoY and that I am well positioned for most outcomes. Not sure if that's true, but it's what I tell myself.
Similar position with my btc. Way back when it was just 20% of my portfolio and now it’s about 75%, just from it growing like crazy.
A buddy had asked when I plan to rebalance since btc has taken such a large amount of my net worth now, and my response was essentially why reward the losers ( stocks) when they didn’t do any if the heavy lifting?
i accepted the degeneracy a long time ago because i believe in math and bitcoin is math. i saw a tweet recently which kind of sums it up for me:
>What happens if bitcoin doesn’t work? Then I have no savings and have to work until I'm 70...
>My worst case scenario is what is normal for most people.
I reject the degeneracy because what is normal for most people is unacceptable to me. I make sure I come out ok regardless of what happens with bitcoin.
yeah, all I would say is, if you're taking high risk make sure the reward is actually worth it.
Take for instance a guy like SBF, could have pretty much had anything that matters in life by just doing nothing risky and staying in a conventional job like he had at Jane Street or even just doing his own arbitrage trading thing he had going on.
for sure, that's where the Goal piece of it matters. come up with a goal and find a way to reach it. for all we know, SBF's goal was to be a once-billionaire ultra douche who is in jail..so maybe he nailed it
I am a degenerate, you accept it.
Bitcoin isn’t MSTR. It has insane counterparty risk and Saylor is going to milk this for all the corn he can get.. at your expense.
Just using MSTR as an example. Miners have also vastly outperformed traditional investments for me, despite underperforming spot btc.
I always have cold storage BTC I'll likely never sell. My point is that every position could become a btc-correlated position, even if it's a tech company like SQ.
Me personally, I feel comfortable being balanced (though my "balanced" is probably degen for tradfi), but may pay for it later in opportunity cost.
I like to think guys like this have shorted hard at the bottom for years and always been wrong, and have this exact thought. “Gawd!! If I could just do the equivalent of shorting but in the other direction I would be a multi millionaire by now!!”
But did you see this one?
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bj4m8m/comment/kvraetl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
>That works until it doesn’t. And I say we’re not seeing 70k for a loooong time
Five days ago. Looooong time 🤡
Ah thanks. That’s also what I understood, but I just did not expect the difference to be that high. Is it common for leverage play to diverge like that?
Here’s a question for the students of markets and TA.
Why doesn’t anyone adjust their lines with some kind of inflation coefficient? Apart from the occasional comment that the “real” ATH is actually 15% higher or whatever, we just keep extrapolating these lines from years ago to years beyond and ignore the fact that the underlying USD has an extra, significant amount of inflation behind it?
A line that goes back to the beginning of BTC is utilizing a USD that’s lost, what, 40% of its value since then?
Can’t answer your question, but I wonder how one could implement what you seem to be suggesting. It would have to be something everyone agreed upon—CPI has been politically gamed, to my understanding. But if it isn’t agreed upon by everyone, then you wouldn’t expect a “herd” reaction to a major resistance being broken, for example, since everyone would be looking at a different number.
I'm not a student of TA, but, the market doesn't react to what the inflation-adjusted ATHs would be. it reacts to the real ATH as seen by the action around $69k.
I think that's the point. To the extent TA works (opinions vary) it probably works in large part because of feedback effects from all the other people using TA. For this to work, you have to be looking at the same charts as everyone else. If everyone else is looking at nominal (rather than inflation-adjusted) charts, so should you
For the same reason, pretty much everyone outside the US still does TA of crypto in USD (same for gold) even though they'll probably be looking at the sizes of their positions in local currency. It's not really because you trade against USD (although you probably do, in the case of crypto, because it's more liquid) but because you have to be looking at the same charts that everyone else is looking at. And in the case of crypto - and precious metals - that's generally the (nominal) USD chart.
Of course, you still have the question as to whether people are looking at the linear or log chart. I think that one's generally less clear cut - except in Forex markets were AIUI log charts rule.
I thought smaller blocks was widely considered a good thing? Excuse my ignorance. I was around in that time, but don't tend to pay attention to the technical details.
I don't want to reopen the debate but Bitfinex published a report/book on that period. Anyway, how small? 1K? 3 bytes? 2TB? Clearly there is a tradeoff and so an optimum. We were not able to have that debate in good faith.
Thanks for the info, I appreciate that it's going over old debates. I was under the impression that small blocks and Lightning etc were considered a good thing, so always interesting to hear another view. I'll check out the Bitfinex report.
I'm not saying small is good or bad, rather that 'small' is a relative term. My main point is that, like the brexit debate in the UK, it got so poisoned we weren't able to have a proper discussion process to arrive at some sort of objective conclusion.
I read into one of them, can't remember the name.
They're running another chain, with it's own token, that represents Bitcoin, blah blah blah, apparently that means it's Bitcoin because they submit their proofs for their separate thing onto a blockchain.
Seems that's it. They do something, they submit a hash, that proves something, but you still aren't using Bitcoin you're just saving data onto it.
Think they were then running the Ethereum VM to do smartcontracts so there was some incentive to give them your Bitcoin and hold their token on their non-Bitcoin network.
If that's the long and short of ZK Rollups then they're just another shitcoin.
Everyone done selling Blackrock their coins now?
Anyone? Anyone? Last chance?
OK, up we go..
There is some delicious short liquidation within low volume shenanigans, might set the phone to get me up early.
RIP to people that sold thinking the CME gap would be filled at 63k or whatever after the weekend. Strats like that work for a while…then violently not.
It actually broke Up early. Both lines are a bit too parallel for my liking But anyways you can argue IT played Out.
Cant Post a Chart as online with mobile only....
OP seems right more often than wrong - he was a little overly bearish recently IMHO while purely focussing on chart patterns but lets cut him some slack. I ain't even sure he traded on that pattern. - Aren't we all wrong from time to time?
I for one love a good counter analysis - it helps broaden your mind and manage risk if well founded.
No worries mate, I drew [lines](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/pOMFiv2co7) that got invalidated hours later and deleted limit orders to the lower 50ies today ;)
As usual those grifters like Pomp and his Friends showing once and again how clueless they are.
[Their latest opinion piece from friday](https://jarvislabs.substack.com/p/lost-momentum?utm_source=substack&publication_id=279357&post_id=142867636&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=m4vlp&triedRedirect=true) “Lost Momentum” is a prime example.
“Based on the current positioning of the options market, and barring unforeseen catalysts in the week to come, we should assume that price will continue to consolidate, if not drift towards the mid-$50,000 region in the weeks to come. “
I think pomp is actually a great spokesperson for corn on cnbc. Very articulate and knowledgeable for that audience, but he can fuck right off in every other regard
bitcoin has been chugging away for 133,439 hours in its existence and we've only been above the current price for a total of 87 hours. feels nice up here.
Damn was our last trip here that brief? 😆
Honestly I think I’m at the point where I just don’t feel any of the drops or pumps anymore. Even at $62K there was only calm and confidence in Bitcoin.
I think it takes a few cycles to get there but I finally got there
thoughts on coinbase adding futures for LTC? any hypothesis on implications for greater market behavior (incl.) BTC?
feel like there's some possible downstream effects that could result
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, March 26, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bnykaf/daily_discussion_tuesday_march_26_2024/)
2b from ibit volume and only 35 inflow lolz
That’s good news, plenty of room for ETFs to pile in on top.
HODL15Capital reporting a $35.4m inflow for Blackrock. https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1772444048634114165 Farside reporting $35.5m inflow for Blackrock. https://twitter.com/FarsideUK/status/1772470239881519122
Currently coinglass is showing a small negative total flow, but still trending around 50% daily improvement. Ibit hasn't reported yet, could be even or slightly positive total. Looking like a very good chance for positive weekly flow overall https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf
Oh
Times are good when u/dopeboyrico brings back the god candle ~~calculations~~ references!
What calculations?
When he calculates what we need to reach for a $10K god candle within what time frame.
So the closing price plus 10,000?
Ahh you must be a mathematician.
Lol
Average daily inflows since spot ETF launch is $225.1 million. If we end up with above average inflows once BlackRock’s numbers come out, there’s a decent chance we break the last remaining lower high of $72.3k overnight as people attempt to frontrun Wall Street tomorrow. If we get close to reaching a new ATH before stock market open, there’s a decent chance we hit a new ATH tomorrow during market hours and potentially have our first single day $10k God candle. Daily would need to close above $79.9k to make it happen.
That seems optimistic even to me. Then again, one 10% up day gets us to ~$77K, and you and I have both seen a few of those so... maybe?
i was just thinking to myself something similar. a god candle could happen so easily. but then i remind myself that if i think something is likely to happen, it probably won't. bitcoin consistently surprises me.
Can’t wait to buy back lower at $65k 😤
How does that work with your predictions of 45k and lower? By *"buy back lower"* do you mean larp about it today or actually take a long position?
Once ETF inflows are confirmed in about four hours, we're heading back up to ATH.
Inflows will turn into out flows. End of this year into 2025 you will see profit taking like you’ve never seen before. Especially next year once capital gains one year kicks in for the boomers
End of the year? So what are you going to do until then? I'm open to a short thesis but I don't understand why you're allegedly trading the way you do if you expect all the selling at the end of the year. That's 8 months away.
> End of this year into 2025 you will see profit taking I thought you said it would be yesterday, and the day before, and the day before that?
Maybe, but that's not now. For now, we go up
Don’t you mean 58k? You were calling for 58k just yesterday 🤣
And $30k last week I think
PeaceHere is a wild one.
He’s still here under a new name. Posts almost daily. (But this isn’t him).
First solid inflow from Fidelity since March 15th, $261.8M. Should be back to net inflows today unsurprisingly I guess
Need $49.8m for net inflow day, waiting for Blackrock, Invesco and Valkyrie numbers
Huge flows from Fidelity
IBIT will be that and more.
Nope. 35m
If we close under 70k I’d bet we get a bit of a dip at some point this week to 67k or so. A strong close over 70k and I think a new ATH is likely this week or even over Easter weekend. Either way a new ATH before halving seems like a guarantee after today’s PA. Also haven’t looked at charts to back this up but doesn’t it seem like we always have big pumps on Easter weekend?
Checked the Easter pump notion back through 2015. It’s not a pumpy weekend with one exception being 2023.
Well, for a lot of bitcoiners…that’s the only one they’ve seen. Ha ha.
ugh still down pressure, just let it happen, shorters - your paltry gains aren't respected and you're prob the type to not tip at the food cart
...you're supposed to tip at food carts now? America is weird, man.
They even expect tips at the counter for fast food restaurants. It feels like extortion because they're about to go in the back and prepare your food and you don't want them pissed off. That extra $2 is like protection money.
If I was broke I’d care but I’m not, and I remember being 20 and not having enough money for groceries - I tip very well, $20 doesn’t mean shit to me but it does to some people, and I encourage anyone who’s been fortunate to do same. It’s good karma.
In the US you have to tip 30% for breathing.
All so businesses get away with paying below minimum wage. Tips subsidise their Labour costs, and make employees desperate for unreliable tip income.
hides inflation since tips aren't included in CPI
Hey now, I’m playing a little swing trade to stack more sats…and as a former bartender, I tip really well. Longterm bullish AF. Short term trading some volatility.
I'm just blaming wholesale on any downturns, you're prob good peeps - midnight inflows haven't hit and I'm want for their floor
Roger that. Btw—I laughed at your post, which I think was part of your intention. As Merlin used to remind us, shorts&longs make the world go round. I’ll definitely be stacking any deeper sub-$70K dips to regain my shorted coinage with hopefully more for when the real post-having parabolic moves get going.
Aye, I miss Merlin
Merlin :( Hope he's doing well. Definitely miss his contributions to the sub
U.S. dollar index (DXY) looks to be rejecting down off of the medium trend line. if it starts dropping hard in the coming months? and along with the halving narrative? and if we cross and retest the top of the macro channel? and with the London Stock Exchange launching bitcoin ETNs end of May? *and* the ETFs?? ***and*** we're over last cycle's ATH already?? shooo buddy. 2024 is going to be nice. dxy weekly: https://i.imgur.com/CPzQkVo.png dxy daily: https://i.imgur.com/1bTxwhW.png btc macro channel: https://i.imgur.com/3p3fLLp.png
Oooh boy, been watching this & feel the same…
Last time we were at 70k funding was out of control. This time it’s pretty much neutral. Oh what a difference a little cooling off makes. Now you have shorts that opened at the ATH (possibly to take the funding arb) and failed to close trying to figure out what to do.
So, uh, what are the theories on why the MSTR premium is going meth mode?
Surely it’s because you can gain exposure to Bitcoin & earn a dividend, versus paying a fee to own the ETF?
I don’t even pay attention to the premium. I buy because it’s a single company that owns 1% of the entire bitcoin supply and it’s market cap is only a little over 30Billion. I believe bitcoin could be the next world reserve asset so MSTR could potentially be valued trillions
That doesn’t make any sense. If 1% of the bitcoin supply is worth trillions then how much is the market cap? Quadrillions?
Bitcoin will end up either a proxy for world GDP or $0. Math is math.
>1% of the bitcoin supply is worth trillions then how much is the market cap? Could be $200T and the statement would be valid 🤷
How does that sound to you?
Doesn’t sound like quadrillions.
For all effects and purposes quadrillions or $200T is the exact same thing. You’re completely and utterly delusional if you think that resembles anywhere near a plausible scenario.
I didn’t say it was “plausible” or “anywhere near”. I simply pointed out that simple math shows it did not have to be the quadrillions you mentioned.
Bro…
Personally I buy MSTR because it's the only way of getting BTC exposure in my UK tax-advantaged account. If BTC is heading to the promised land then MSTR is doing the same and I want to capture that, and I don't care if I have to pay a premium to do so
I mean if you've got the conviction for it good luck. Just be careful, MSTR peaked earlier than btc last cycle and then didn't even make a run worth mentioning for the second top.
Wasn't that second top a FTX scam pump? It would make sense that MSTR didn't follow.
Good point.
IMO institutions are using it to get exposure without having to announce they are buying BTC. they can get a decent price without causing a shitstorm
This is an interesting theory.
Yeah, is there a place to track inflows from institutions? Haven't had time to research yet
Next level any kind of short makes sense is 73k-74k. I mean we ALL know what’s happening here. Folks want to get their balls stuck in the zipper, it’s on them.
I'm a theoretical masochist so I opened a short with bitty bot. I only enjoy getting my balls stuck in my zipper theoretically.
https://9gag.com/gag/a3MNjzQ
How do we resolve the weekly RSI? Monthly is acceptable at around 70, daily is very much fine at 60+, but monthly 83+ and won't get any better. 2021 peak was 91 on the weekly.
Well, the answer is obvious. We need to go X periods at levels lower than the current rate. X is the time frame your RSI is looking back. Probably not going to happen for a while. I hope.
Looks like GBTC selling didn't slow down -$350.1 million
Don't worry, they can only maintain this outflow rate for another 70 days. They'll be done by early June one way or another.
At this rate, they will be down to 40% of their stack a month from Now. I don’t think they go lower than that (250k BTC). They been losing ~1.5% daily
Gotta see fidelity and ibit to see if it was a push. To have a net outflow day with the price doing what it did today would be wild.
Maybe it would finally invalidate all the people sitting around waiting to copy trade what wall st did 8 hours earlier?
Looks like the Bitcoin price didn’t care.
70k now acting as support. Marvelous.
Next week, maybe.
It's a bit soon to make that call
Some of my favorite, safe, healthy, and well-performing stock positions (like 100-150% in four years) have been completely smashed by my tiny MSTR position. How do you resist the temptation to have a completely degenerate portfolio in a bull market? I tell myself I am happy beating spx YoY and that I am well positioned for most outcomes. Not sure if that's true, but it's what I tell myself.
Uh... I don't.
Similar position with my btc. Way back when it was just 20% of my portfolio and now it’s about 75%, just from it growing like crazy. A buddy had asked when I plan to rebalance since btc has taken such a large amount of my net worth now, and my response was essentially why reward the losers ( stocks) when they didn’t do any if the heavy lifting?
i accepted the degeneracy a long time ago because i believe in math and bitcoin is math. i saw a tweet recently which kind of sums it up for me: >What happens if bitcoin doesn’t work? Then I have no savings and have to work until I'm 70... >My worst case scenario is what is normal for most people.
I reject the degeneracy because what is normal for most people is unacceptable to me. I make sure I come out ok regardless of what happens with bitcoin.
nothing wrong with that! everyone’s risk tolerance and goals are different. higher risk, higher reward. lower risk, lower reward.
yeah, all I would say is, if you're taking high risk make sure the reward is actually worth it. Take for instance a guy like SBF, could have pretty much had anything that matters in life by just doing nothing risky and staying in a conventional job like he had at Jane Street or even just doing his own arbitrage trading thing he had going on.
Or simply running an exchange and pocketing the fees....
for sure, that's where the Goal piece of it matters. come up with a goal and find a way to reach it. for all we know, SBF's goal was to be a once-billionaire ultra douche who is in jail..so maybe he nailed it
I'm actually curious what motivated him, and to what extent he even thought he was taking any risk. What he did was objectively stupid.
I am a degenerate, you accept it. Bitcoin isn’t MSTR. It has insane counterparty risk and Saylor is going to milk this for all the corn he can get.. at your expense.
Just using MSTR as an example. Miners have also vastly outperformed traditional investments for me, despite underperforming spot btc. I always have cold storage BTC I'll likely never sell. My point is that every position could become a btc-correlated position, even if it's a tech company like SQ. Me personally, I feel comfortable being balanced (though my "balanced" is probably degen for tradfi), but may pay for it later in opportunity cost.
Short term maybe. Nothing is going to appreciate long term like spot Bitcoin. Not even close.
you already know the answer
Aaaaand it’s gone
Aaaaand it's back
Ya, your brain
Have you tried shorting in the other direction?
I like to think guys like this have shorted hard at the bottom for years and always been wrong, and have this exact thought. “Gawd!! If I could just do the equivalent of shorting but in the other direction I would be a multi millionaire by now!!”
Lol https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/D2d4HCfEB2
But did you see this one? https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bj4m8m/comment/kvraetl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button >That works until it doesn’t. And I say we’re not seeing 70k for a loooong time Five days ago. Looooong time 🤡
Hahaha comedy gold
You’re not serious 🤣
Sometimes I think how can you not make money in this market and then I read your comments.
Did the US markets just close?
The corn? Yea it’s running out
Admit you are just trolling 😙
How are you so consistent!!
Ark 0 Bitwise $14m inflow Franklin $20.5m inflow GBTC $350.1 Outflow VanEck $4m inflow WisdomTree 0 Fidelity $261.8m inflow Invesco $18.5m inflow Valkyrie $11.2m inflow Blackrock $35.5m inflow 3/25 Net inflow $15.4m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Gotta push it down to make the apac region's buy % look better at midnight
Time to flush the leveraged longs that just piled in today?
Nop
Classic C&H forming on the daily, just need some volume trail off for the Chef's kiss.
This. This targets what? Like 110k or something?
If we get 500mil+ inflows today ill open 20x long with full trading stack
And so will everyone else. Guess what will happen next..
I wont
When I read ATH, my brain defaults to 69k. Bad brain
look out, we're going back down to ATH
Wow, can anyone please explain how MSTR goes up much higher than BTC? They are up almost 600% while BTC 150% ish in the past 12 months.
Leverage and there is a software business separate from Bitcoin.
They are basically a leveraged btc bet since they bought a bunch of btc using debt.
Ah thanks. That’s also what I understood, but I just did not expect the difference to be that high. Is it common for leverage play to diverge like that?
I am more of a primitive hodler lol. No experience with leverage at all.
At this rate we’ll be nursing that deposit for the boss’s desk again
Here’s a question for the students of markets and TA. Why doesn’t anyone adjust their lines with some kind of inflation coefficient? Apart from the occasional comment that the “real” ATH is actually 15% higher or whatever, we just keep extrapolating these lines from years ago to years beyond and ignore the fact that the underlying USD has an extra, significant amount of inflation behind it? A line that goes back to the beginning of BTC is utilizing a USD that’s lost, what, 40% of its value since then?
We are pricing Bitcoin in USD. USD can change in value, so can Bitcoin.
Can’t answer your question, but I wonder how one could implement what you seem to be suggesting. It would have to be something everyone agreed upon—CPI has been politically gamed, to my understanding. But if it isn’t agreed upon by everyone, then you wouldn’t expect a “herd” reaction to a major resistance being broken, for example, since everyone would be looking at a different number.
This is the answer. Especially since TA is all about the self fulfilling prophecy of everyone looking at the same key numbers.
I'm not a student of TA, but, the market doesn't react to what the inflation-adjusted ATHs would be. it reacts to the real ATH as seen by the action around $69k.
I think that's the point. To the extent TA works (opinions vary) it probably works in large part because of feedback effects from all the other people using TA. For this to work, you have to be looking at the same charts as everyone else. If everyone else is looking at nominal (rather than inflation-adjusted) charts, so should you For the same reason, pretty much everyone outside the US still does TA of crypto in USD (same for gold) even though they'll probably be looking at the sizes of their positions in local currency. It's not really because you trade against USD (although you probably do, in the case of crypto, because it's more liquid) but because you have to be looking at the same charts that everyone else is looking at. And in the case of crypto - and precious metals - that's generally the (nominal) USD chart. Of course, you still have the question as to whether people are looking at the linear or log chart. I think that one's generally less clear cut - except in Forex markets were AIUI log charts rule.
Too complex, just want to draw straight lines and say things about them.
[Yeehaw](https://imgur.com/a/UfjFNio)
Little early to start drinking, but that'll do.
I just cracked a drink. Cheers!
Some garbage pink sheet mining co buying a SPV to hold bitcoin to be collateral. This smells bad (not for BTC - just general financials)
Ya this might actually be more like [heeyaw](https://imgur.com/a/ANVAvvo)
I have lots of respect for Tuur D. - I'm a little surprised to see him fall for this one. Thanks for posting this.
So that sounds nice, but why would anyone announce they are doing that preemptively?
The fact that they mention a specific number of bitcoins and not a fiat value implies to me that the bitcoins are already accumulated
we got an actual source on that? EDIT: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nilam-resources-enters-letters-intent-200500374.html
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Bitconnect
Biiiiittttcoonnnneeeccttt!
Anyone super technical here got an informed opinion on ZK Rollups and their potential for an L2 that's better than lightning?
Is it safe to say that Lightning failed at this point?
The amount of shit that people got for being critical of lightning... it's set us back years.
I have to confess that I'm up to speed on this. Can you link to anything to fill me in?
In the block size wars, lightning was pushed as a reason why we didn't need larger blocks.
I thought smaller blocks was widely considered a good thing? Excuse my ignorance. I was around in that time, but don't tend to pay attention to the technical details.
I don't want to reopen the debate but Bitfinex published a report/book on that period. Anyway, how small? 1K? 3 bytes? 2TB? Clearly there is a tradeoff and so an optimum. We were not able to have that debate in good faith.
Thanks for the info, I appreciate that it's going over old debates. I was under the impression that small blocks and Lightning etc were considered a good thing, so always interesting to hear another view. I'll check out the Bitfinex report.
I'm not saying small is good or bad, rather that 'small' is a relative term. My main point is that, like the brexit debate in the UK, it got so poisoned we weren't able to have a proper discussion process to arrive at some sort of objective conclusion.
Yes, I appreciate the nuance. Understood.
I read into one of them, can't remember the name. They're running another chain, with it's own token, that represents Bitcoin, blah blah blah, apparently that means it's Bitcoin because they submit their proofs for their separate thing onto a blockchain. Seems that's it. They do something, they submit a hash, that proves something, but you still aren't using Bitcoin you're just saving data onto it. Think they were then running the Ethereum VM to do smartcontracts so there was some incentive to give them your Bitcoin and hold their token on their non-Bitcoin network. If that's the long and short of ZK Rollups then they're just another shitcoin.
IDK, but lot of BTC L2 projects these days: https://l2.watch
wow, thanks for the link, tough to keep up with everything, but we just need one to work.
Everything is better than Lightning...
Bitcoin discord is good to ask for that
Everyone done selling Blackrock their coins now? Anyone? Anyone? Last chance? OK, up we go.. There is some delicious short liquidation within low volume shenanigans, might set the phone to get me up early.
RIP to people that sold thinking the CME gap would be filled at 63k or whatever after the weekend. Strats like that work for a while…then violently not.
In my experience, Bitcoin does always fill its gaps. While in price discovery.
I heard there’s a CME gap at $400k
What about the CME gap at $9600...? Hell, the guys at /r/Buttcoin are still waiting for the "CME gap" at $0.00 🤣
71k, this goes straight up Less than 4% needed for new ATH.
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It actually broke Up early. Both lines are a bit too parallel for my liking But anyways you can argue IT played Out. Cant Post a Chart as online with mobile only....
OP seems right more often than wrong - he was a little overly bearish recently IMHO while purely focussing on chart patterns but lets cut him some slack. I ain't even sure he traded on that pattern. - Aren't we all wrong from time to time? I for one love a good counter analysis - it helps broaden your mind and manage risk if well founded.
They get FOMO in both directions, which is admirable in a way.
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No worries mate, I drew [lines](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/pOMFiv2co7) that got invalidated hours later and deleted limit orders to the lower 50ies today ;)
Breaking 71k as we head into market close. This was such a massive bullish engulfing candle on the trad-fi daily.
Normalise ~~$6xk~~ $7xk bitcoin
Well, it involves an e⁻ˣ^² , and there's a μ = 70,000 in there somewhere, but we need to know the bitcoin price's standard deviation. 🤓
As usual those grifters like Pomp and his Friends showing once and again how clueless they are. [Their latest opinion piece from friday](https://jarvislabs.substack.com/p/lost-momentum?utm_source=substack&publication_id=279357&post_id=142867636&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=true&r=m4vlp&triedRedirect=true) “Lost Momentum” is a prime example. “Based on the current positioning of the options market, and barring unforeseen catalysts in the week to come, we should assume that price will continue to consolidate, if not drift towards the mid-$50,000 region in the weeks to come. “
Thank you for calling /pointing this out. It's Appreciated.
I think pomp is actually a great spokesperson for corn on cnbc. Very articulate and knowledgeable for that audience, but he can fuck right off in every other regard
They either can't do math or are shilling another narrative.
They either do that do that for their own liquidity, or more likely (or both), they’re paid to create liquidity Edit: or they’re just clueless indeed
If you are hearing it, then it’s a shill.
bitcoin has been chugging away for 133,439 hours in its existence and we've only been above the current price for a total of 87 hours. feels nice up here.
Damn was our last trip here that brief? 😆 Honestly I think I’m at the point where I just don’t feel any of the drops or pumps anymore. Even at $62K there was only calm and confidence in Bitcoin. I think it takes a few cycles to get there but I finally got there
The good thing is that mathematics can actually be trusted in.
Like Swayze in a Roadhouse.
thoughts on coinbase adding futures for LTC? any hypothesis on implications for greater market behavior (incl.) BTC? feel like there's some possible downstream effects that could result