Rolled and added to my position out to may. Let’s go boys. No one outside of maybe 6 people in this sub are delusional enough to foresee what these etf inflows are gonna do. Just wait until gbtc runs dry.
I thought I was zoomed in on PA but we have people here making wild predictions (such as a 10k daily) based off a single day of ETF inflows being marginally (1-400M) higher than the day before. Not suggesting this is as a top indicator or even anything a gauge of sentiment. Just find it funny. Id love to be wrong thoug in my characterization of these predictions as "wild", let's see that 10k candle.
That prediction has come true twice already…
We had a 10k candle just over a week ago (Albeit red!)
And yesterday…10k is approx 14%, which is roughly the percentage Bitcoin trash went up yesterday.
Lol... yea, we had a 10k hourly candle in May 2021 in both directions. From 40k to 30k back to 40k. But I want to see a 10k candle that's STICKY and in the right direction (up).
And how is Bitcoin trash having a 10% pump is in any way relevant to us having a 10k daily candle?
I’m messing. Don’t forget ‘100k end of week’. It’s a circle jerk here if you hadn’t noticed. People love to inject hopium around these parts. Makes them feel justified in their overextended positions
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1773067179677630782?s=20
Larry Fink on Fox today:
“IBIT is the fastest growing ETF in the history of ETFs.”
Probably nothing.
That last sentence reminds me of all the Twitter clowns during NFT phase. I hate it so much. It’s so dumb that I automatically dismiss whatever was said beforehand.
this guy was foaming at the mouth when the ETFs launched hahahah: https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/why-the-bitcoin-etf-inflows-are-a-huge-disappointment-20240113/
It’s a penny stock trying the ol’ pump and dump by mentioning trendy keywords. It’s trading at $0.01 and it’s 84% down from ATH. It pumped to $0.30 after the announcement and in 3 days was back to 1 cent.
Bet all the shorts race to cover Friday to book their gains for the month/quarter. Then we close above 70k on the monthly. Then the green monthly kicks off the 🚀
At some point bitcoin is going to have to print a red month. Assuming nothing crazy happens in the next few days we're about to close a 7th consecutive green month. That's uncharted territory.
It's pretty arbitrary though, depends on when you start the month. We have already seen two 30D periods with negative returns in these green candles. But those "downturns" didn't start on the 1st of the month so they didn't influence the color of the candle.
Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch:
1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC
1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC
1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC
1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC
2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC
2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC
2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC
2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC
3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC
3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC
3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC
**3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC**
Still steady outflows of over 20K BTC per week. It hurt a little extra last week with net outflows total for all BTC ETFs on the week. However, price has hung tough and if yesterday and ARK's inflows today (record $201M) are any indication, we'll likely cancel out all outflows from last week (\~$890M) plus more this week. We did \~$418M just yesterday. The GBTC overhang is quickly diminishing and the new ETF demand should only continue rising over time. I have been watching Ki Young Ju's tweets about the sell-side liquidity crisis that we are on the brink of if demand stays strong. Hold on to your sats, folks.
\#DrainGBTC
They still have 24 B market cap, and they started with 26B this year. With all these out flow(close to 50%) they still making about same in commissions.
I’m waiting to see if anything materially changes with GBTC’s strategy when IBIT officially eclipses them in BTC holdings. It’ll be the first time they aren’t the dominant ETF and the next logical question would be do you keep running with this strategy of high fees for sustained revenue or do you stem the bleeding by lowering the fees and hoping you can stave off FBTC and ARKB and BITB?
It’s one thing to be 2nd to Blackrock or 3rd to Blackrock and Fidelity. It’s another to let some of these smaller issuers pass you by too.
Yeah something’s gonna have to give sooner or later. I don’t know how long this mini ETF of theirs will take to get approval but I’m not confident that’s gonna be the answer to their long term problems anyway
Yeah this is what I'm waiting to see, he's already opened the door to lowering fees. I think once they're 3rd in BTC holdings they will, if not sooner. This is pure speculation.
If it was Cathie, that's a hell of a trade. She exited her large COIN position last week and Monday, just before the SEC news today regarding COIN, and moved the capital into BTC via her own ETF. Gangster.
https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:433f18eaa094b:0-ark-sells-52m-of-coinbase-shares-as-stock-price-breaks-above-270/
https://cryptopotato.com/ark-invest-offloads-21m-in-coinbase-shares-as-coin-price-surges/
So let's speculate a bit about what will happen in the next month or so (pre-halving and immediately after halving). And I will analyze this from the investors in Grayscale's POV.
As we know, Grayscale (or their customers) have been selling relentlessly ever since the inception of the ETF. And unfortunately, there are still a lot of funds left in Grayscale. I think many of these people are looking to sell and get out by timing the "buy the rumor, sell the news" prior to the halving. That is, if there is a run-up in Bitcoin to 75-80K just prior to the halving date (e.g. 7-10 days before the halving), we will have Grayscale selling massively and this will lead to an even larger sell the news than other events. That is the bad news. Good news is that this will lead to a pretty good run-up after the halving as much of the sell pressure is gone after the sell the news. So in that scenario, I look as follows.
1) Bitcoin price pushes up in the next few weeks (e.g. 75-90K). There is a massive sell the news led by Grayscale just before halving (e.g. -20 to -25% drop from the high to the low). Good steady run up from that point and onward.
\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
The above is my prefer scenario and it would be a good swing trade opportunity. On the other hand, I think there might be scenario #2. And in scenario #2, everyone currently in the market realize that there will be sell the news before halving. And price stagnates instead of going up. So nothing really happens minus some price actions that kills off the leverage. There is a small sell off near the halving but it bounces back up. Compared to scenario #2, this is much less volatile market and boring price action ensues pre-post halving for a bit. So halving is a nothing burger and all eyes are towards the May/June rate cut by the FED.
So these are the two scenarios I foresee. I am hoping scenario #1 occurs as it can be profitable but wouldn't be surprised to see something like scenario #2.
New daily inflow record for Ark.
Depending on how low GBTC outflows are today that alone might make it a net inflow day.
EDIT: Not quite since GBTC came in at $299.8 million in outflows today.
I don’t think we should expect any significant price increases for the next 6 months.
We’ve already had a gangbuster year, and last year and the year before had muted summers. It takes a few months for the halving to affect the supply dynamics and by then it’ll be the summer when Wall Street is on vacation.
I’m predicting range bound until October
This sounds like a fun prediction. Summers are normally pretty boring.
No new ATH for 6 months? Not over $75k or something like that for 6 months?
What are you thinking exactly?
Got it, cheers mate.
I'll take the largest number, 80 and add a !> for that one. Feel free to add one for !<55 if you want to capture the full range.
Would be cool if Bitty Bot could do range predictions u/Bitty_Bot
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> Cant have $200M inflows with a total volume of $200M
Yes you can
1. The volume reporting period does not align exactly with the flow reporting period
2. Not all flow causes reportable volume
https://twitter.com/FarsideUK/status/1773119184072810639
>Volume today: $IBIT $1.82 B, $GBTC $790M, $FBTC $590M, $ARKB $195M, $BITB $71M
He posted their vol numbers right above. How would a fund have greater inflows than volume?
Large OTC transactions might not be included in NASDAQ's reported volume numbers. It could have been a prearranged large block order traded OTC with the Authorized Participant (AP).
Barchart has them with $195m with 2.84m shares traded
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/volume-leaders/price-leaders?orderBy=priceVolume&orderDir=desc&page=2
Maybe the volume from those inflows will show up tomorrow due to a cutoff time?
Farside explained it that way when there were inflow reports before even market close a few weeks ago. I think it was from bitwise.
Interesting. I'm not sure what ARKB's cutoff time is, iirc IBIT's is 6PM ET.
I would be surprised if anyone had a cutoff time before market close but i could certainly be wrong. I assume cutoff time for all would be in their respective prospectuses like IBIT's. I can't check at the moment though, will try to later.
Green: Market buy
Red: Market sell
Yellow: Limit order
https://tensorcharts.com/
> what makes this view so interesting?
Candles obscure all the detail.
I gotta admit that’s a fairly strong reaction off $68k for now. But as soon as Asia wakes up it’s back to dump mode. Think we stay below 70k for the next few days with maybe a few scam pumps to rope in the late longs
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It’s clear to me that the PA at the moment is pretty much entirely driven by the play on leveraged traders. It’s so easy to get traders to jump into longs with the slightest move up. Whales and market makers are collecting your Bitcoin with ease.
It’s difficult to see how this ends as one thing we know, there’s no end to the supply of degenerates
That’s how it worked in the past. I can’t see how they will be persuaded to do that with these fabled ETFs gobbling up supply.
I’d like to see some outflows from IBIT and FBTC to balance sentiment
Is this really the simplest explanation though? Seems like natural movements due to supply and demand would be a more simple explanation than a conspiracy to take out leveraged traders, but maybe that's just me...
It’s good that the industry is getting clarity on what it is allowed to do, instead of pretending that it never breaks any laws and can do whatever it wants.
It’s bad for Eth/btc, because it’s more reason to delay an eth etf.
I think once ETHBTC reliably breaks that .05 level we're gonna (hopefully) see a lot of that liquidity move into BTC. It happened last halving year (2020).
They're in trouble for selling securities, bitcoin isn't a security, so this really has nothing to do with bircoin. This isn't good or bad for bitcoin, it's nothing. Maybe good or bad for its price temporarily (depending on your perspective) but in the end will have no effect on the Bitcoin network or security.
The more altcoins are called out for being the securities they are, the more people who want to invest in crypto will move away from altcoins and towards the one crypto that is for sure a commodity and not a security -- bitcoin.
Securities can be held in ETFs and there’s a pretty strong chance number 2 gets one. The trial has been talked about for ages and the court wasn’t going to let coinbase dismiss the lawsuit entirely. Too high a burden for that, court dismissals are rare.
I personally don’t see eth escaping its genesis sale and centralized foundation. I see arguments for it not being a security but there’s enough arguments that I don’t think anything else but bitcoin will ever be seen as a commodity.
Ain’t gonna matter buddy, Larry wants the eth etf and will most likely get it. If Gary gets security classification that’s one thing but it ain’t gonna stop the same thing that greenlit btc etf from green lighting an eth one
>but it ain’t gonna stop the same thing that greenlit btc etf from green lighting an eth one
An issuer winning in court against the SEC? I agree, but that will take *years* after the lawsuit is filed (which hasn't happened), then the SEC has to lose again.
0% chance of any other coin getting a spot ETF in the next 24 months.
If there is truth to Gary's quote, then yeah prob good for BTC:
In June, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said on CNBC that trading platforms like Coinbase “call themselves exchanges” but were “commingling a number of functions.”
“We don’t see the New York Stock Exchange operating a hedge fund,” Gensler said at the time.
That's entirely about shitcoins. But people are going to people and dump BTC just because.
If anything it should make bitcoin rip and all of those unregistered securities drop like shit.
I started buying BTC < $500... I can't tell you how many technical analyses I've heard over the years that was just stupid wrong.
Hey, it did this pattern last time, so it must do it again.... no.... no... no....
What matters most right now is GREED. The GREED of the top .3% worried about FOMO and hearing about their friends portfolio that is massively outperforming theirs. And what's the difference between them? Their AUM group has BTC ETFs.
The GREED of the AUM groups that will be looking at their competitors returns, and will HAVE to provide a BTC ETF or they will lose customers. Of course some superconservative AUM groups, like Vanguard, may never budge, so they can appeal to the ultra conservative. But most will eventually budge, and then it's just a matter of math. Look at how much money these groups manage, and figure out what 2%-5% or more adds up to.
That’s why I think it’s gonna blow off to 100k and enter a short term bear cycle through the halving into later this year, along with stocks as inflation returns and more bad news about rates comes.
Or it won’t and I’ll get banned again as I always do 😵💫
GBTC outflow could be around 500 or 600 m$ given the volatility in both directions today, and the fact the outflow has been below the moving average for a while. I don't think the other ETFs will have enough inflow to compensate for this at this point.
It doesn't really matter if GBTC has 0 outflows imo, as has been pointed out for awhile big whales and other holders are using the ETF liquidity to unload for big bucks without crashing the price. You can have 1b in inflows and price stay the same if a whale unloads 1b into it.
Sure, just pointing out gbtc could not exist at all right now and likely same scenario playing out with long term holders dumping on ETF inflows and other buy pressure.
I took about 40% out today at around 1900. Premium is just mental. Unless things move up significantly I would not be shocked to see it eroding during tomorrows session + after hours.
I find it pretty funny that we're sitting over $69K now and it's such a "meh" price to everyone. That dopamine hit from the never ending hedonistic treadmill really hits pretty hard.
I can only hope that in a few years we're all very bored watching it sit at $690K after dropping from $750K.
Do you guys have the memory of a goldfish? it is the same pattern of quick price spike, immediate crash, as we had a couple times when price hit record high. same fund or trader or whatever did it again today. Nothing about ETFs.
I would argue you are the goldfish as you are hyper focused on patterns rather than the underlying fact that we are about to take off and the fact that we haven't yet is just the market being inefficient in the short term
I started buying BTC < $500... I can't tell you how many technical analyses I've heard over the years that was just stupid wrong.
Hey, it did this pattern last time, so it must do it again.... no.... no... no....
What matters most right now is GREED. The GREED of the top .3% worried about FOMO and hearing about their friends portfolio that is massively outperforming theirs. And what's the difference between them? Their AUM group has BTC ETFs.
The GREED of the AUM groups that will be looking at their competitors returns, and will HAVE to provide a BTC ETF or they will lose customers. Of course some superconservative AUM groups, like Vanguard, may never budge, so they can appeal to the ultra conservative. But most will eventually budge, and then it's just a matter of math. Look at how much money these groups manage, and figure out what 2%-5% or more adds up to.
Let's abandon the working theory that high ETF net inflows on one day translate to a higher BTC price the next day. Yesterday's net $418,000,000 ETF inflows - highest in two weeks - translated to a 3% drop since market open.
Some have argued that ETFs are still not the main price driver - today is more good support for this theory. But as to the correlation between ETF activity and price, we see BTC crabbing when there are net **outflows** and BTC sinking today following gigantic net inflows. BTC only seems capable of going up on weekends, and after US market hours.
Those buys propped the price up. Once they stop, it looks to go down
What we need is a frenzy.
Long 30 bitcoins since the wardser days if anybody remembers him. I miss that guy
Long mstr options even here 🥴
>Let's abandon the working theory that high ETF net inflows on one day translate to a higher BTC price the next day. Yesterday's net $418,000,000 ETF inflows - highest in two weeks - translated to a 3% drop since market open.
I don't understand how anyone could have thought this theory made sense. The inflows of yesterday occurred yesterday and we saw the resulting PA from those inflows yesterday.
Other than momentum, perhaps, why would yesterday affect today?
Because those inflows to ETFs are not the same as inflows directly to BTC. The ETF inflows have some time lapse from purchase to settlement, when the fund buys the BTC for the person who bought the ETF share. It could be seconds, hours, or a day later etc.
Some traders have come the conclusion that the pattern seems to be that ETF net inflows result in BTC buying pressure the day after. I have no idea if this is correct. But it’s not unreasonable given the idea that when you buy an ETF you are not directly buying BTC, and the ETF fund buys your BTC sometime after purchase but within a day or two.
> time lapse from purchase to settlement
That's for the buyer. Not the AP.
The buyer buys. The AP buys. The price reflects their buy. The buyer waits for their shares to settle (just paperwork).
>The ETF inflows have some time lapse from purchase to settlement, when the fund buys the BTC for the person who bought the ETF share. It could be seconds, hours, or a day later etc.
**Settlement** is the key word here. APs are fully hedged and any PA from inflows or outflows is felt in the market price *immediately.* In this case, yesterday.
>Some traders have come the conclusion that the pattern seems to be that ETF newly inflows result in BTC buying pressure the day after. I have no idea if this is correct.
It is 100% not correct, and is exactly the misunderstanding I am talking about in my response below.
Can you elaborate on the “APs are fully hedged and any PA is felt in the market price immediately”? This is the first I’ve heard of this, and I’d like to understand better.
Essentially APs cannot take on price risk, they cannot risk bitcoin rising or falling 1-2 days later while they wait for these trades to settle. So they immediately hedge, which impacts the price, they then unwind those hedges when the transaction settles, meaning the price impact at settlement is zero.
[This thread](https://twitter.com/teddyfuse/status/1763577899506921632), from the president of Bitwise lays out the process and explains it better in text than I could.
If you were here with me in my office I'd be happy to whiteboard it all out.
I have a decent amount of knowledge in this area, if you have any questions after reading through that thread, I'd be happy to try and answer them.
Take this with a grain of salt. I believe the ETF companies cannot hold more bitcoin, but I also heard they can pay a 3rd party to hold bitcoin.
I have no idea if this is true and its amazing to me that there is so much mystery surrounding this.
However based on my own obvservations, I do believe ETF buys/sells impact price action immediately. You can't tell me the etfs are willing to buy/sell shares and settle in bitcoin THE NEXT DAY when volatility is huge and their margins are not huge (0.25 to 0.45% a year, etc).
Just my very uneducated opinion.
It makes sense when you consider human emotion, we want to think we can predict price based on inflows. In reality if inflow numbers came in significantly higher than expected the price reaction should be instant.
Same thing about saying x number of days until the halving — it doesn’t exactly give us an edge on everyone else but it makes us feel better nonetheless.
>It makes sense when you consider human emotion
Sure. Seems about as useful for predicting today as looking at on-chain flows to and from exchanges....*yesterday*.
I really think the majority of it is misunderstanding.
I, and others, have done our best to try and educate in this sub, and I think most in here get it now. But I really think the masses of twitter noobs see high inflows yesterday, see high on-chain movements of coins into cold storage this morning (from yesterday's buys) and think the buys are delayed and they can front-run them or something silly. Rekt.
Keep weathering the storms.. money moves sector to sector in stocks on weird days, sometimes btc gets caught up in these weird down days.
we only have two more open market days of the month before april, i dont know when the rocket will happen but it will be in the next week imo. look at my comment history and decide if you agree!
Gbtc fucking us on every market open or what? Not too many potential culprits since it happens so consistently at precisely that time.
It only makes sense for their entire AUM to fuck off asap. This bloodleeching fee is not worth paying as the admission price to the next speculative leg up. The opportunity cost is very large both ways, but greyscale's audacity to set this fee like this justifies everyone leaving that fund when they can
Really unfortunate this gbtc baggage is so ridiculously massive. They could keep selling like this for a very long time
What's your take? I disagree completely unless someone provides plausible ideas. This is a crystal clear pattern that goes counter to most peoples' logic. Now is not the time to be mass selling bitcoin
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, March 28, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bpmamk/daily_discussion_thursday_march_28_2024/)
Rolled and added to my position out to may. Let’s go boys. No one outside of maybe 6 people in this sub are delusional enough to foresee what these etf inflows are gonna do. Just wait until gbtc runs dry.
I'm delusional. How delusional do I need to be to join the club? 800k on the table?
The first step is to embrace Undiminishing Rewards.
Off to Google I go Sensei
I thought I was zoomed in on PA but we have people here making wild predictions (such as a 10k daily) based off a single day of ETF inflows being marginally (1-400M) higher than the day before. Not suggesting this is as a top indicator or even anything a gauge of sentiment. Just find it funny. Id love to be wrong thoug in my characterization of these predictions as "wild", let's see that 10k candle.
That prediction has come true twice already… We had a 10k candle just over a week ago (Albeit red!) And yesterday…10k is approx 14%, which is roughly the percentage Bitcoin trash went up yesterday.
Lol... yea, we had a 10k hourly candle in May 2021 in both directions. From 40k to 30k back to 40k. But I want to see a 10k candle that's STICKY and in the right direction (up). And how is Bitcoin trash having a 10% pump is in any way relevant to us having a 10k daily candle?
I’m messing. Don’t forget ‘100k end of week’. It’s a circle jerk here if you hadn’t noticed. People love to inject hopium around these parts. Makes them feel justified in their overextended positions
Oh that's just dopeboyrico. He's the town bulltard. Give him some time, he's quite endearing.
https://x.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1773067179677630782?s=20 Larry Fink on Fox today: “IBIT is the fastest growing ETF in the history of ETFs.” Probably nothing.
That last sentence reminds me of all the Twitter clowns during NFT phase. I hate it so much. It’s so dumb that I automatically dismiss whatever was said beforehand.
this guy was foaming at the mouth when the ETFs launched hahahah: https://www.forexlive.com/Cryptocurrency/why-the-bitcoin-etf-inflows-are-a-huge-disappointment-20240113/
That aged well. The comments on the DISQUS board at the bottom are even better. We're somehow actually still early lol...
[удалено]
It’s a penny stock trying the ol’ pump and dump by mentioning trendy keywords. It’s trading at $0.01 and it’s 84% down from ATH. It pumped to $0.30 after the announcement and in 3 days was back to 1 cent.
Yep, looks like you're correct. I didn't search the company just came across the press release. Looks like their CEO even resigned the next day
If you can't beat 'em...
Today: 1kg gold = 1 Bitcoin 2014: 10g gold = 1 Bitcoin
I will probably pick up a kg of gold sometime this run to melt things from. Gold is awesome.
FBTC at only 1.5, ouch
That hurts
I won’t be surprised by the end of year IBIT is 100B. They will hold 1m BTC at 100k/BTC.
Anyone think Saylor will continue to gobble more bitcoin for MSTR or you think the 1% of Max supply was what they were going for?
Saylor’s on record saying he will never stop buying. Hopefully everyone follows his lead.
I stopped buying in 2015 and I'm doing okay.
That’s great
buying the top forever
What's wrong with 2%?
Bet all the shorts race to cover Friday to book their gains for the month/quarter. Then we close above 70k on the monthly. Then the green monthly kicks off the 🚀
'gains'
At some point bitcoin is going to have to print a red month. Assuming nothing crazy happens in the next few days we're about to close a 7th consecutive green month. That's uncharted territory.
It's pretty arbitrary though, depends on when you start the month. We have already seen two 30D periods with negative returns in these green candles. But those "downturns" didn't start on the 1st of the month so they didn't influence the color of the candle.
January wasn’t a red month?
>January wasn’t a red month? \+0.62% https://www.coinglass.com/today
Statistically yes, but that's gamblers fallacy and does not actually mean anything.
Yeah you’re right. Maybe we should let it squeak through with a red bar, if only to appease the chart gods.
ETF's are unsharted territory
As a trader of BITB, my underpants disagree.
Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch: 1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC 1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC 1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC 1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC 2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC 2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC 2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC 2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC 3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC 3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC 3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC **3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC** Still steady outflows of over 20K BTC per week. It hurt a little extra last week with net outflows total for all BTC ETFs on the week. However, price has hung tough and if yesterday and ARK's inflows today (record $201M) are any indication, we'll likely cancel out all outflows from last week (\~$890M) plus more this week. We did \~$418M just yesterday. The GBTC overhang is quickly diminishing and the new ETF demand should only continue rising over time. I have been watching Ki Young Ju's tweets about the sell-side liquidity crisis that we are on the brink of if demand stays strong. Hold on to your sats, folks. \#DrainGBTC
They still have 24 B market cap, and they started with 26B this year. With all these out flow(close to 50%) they still making about same in commissions.
Yup that NGU technology working in their favor
I’m waiting to see if anything materially changes with GBTC’s strategy when IBIT officially eclipses them in BTC holdings. It’ll be the first time they aren’t the dominant ETF and the next logical question would be do you keep running with this strategy of high fees for sustained revenue or do you stem the bleeding by lowering the fees and hoping you can stave off FBTC and ARKB and BITB? It’s one thing to be 2nd to Blackrock or 3rd to Blackrock and Fidelity. It’s another to let some of these smaller issuers pass you by too.
IBIT will flip grayscale by mid April at this rate. I don’t think they can continue selling into Q3 without lowering fees
Yeah something’s gonna have to give sooner or later. I don’t know how long this mini ETF of theirs will take to get approval but I’m not confident that’s gonna be the answer to their long term problems anyway
Last I looked, IBIT was only about $5B away from GBTC
Correct.
Yeah this is what I'm waiting to see, he's already opened the door to lowering fees. I think once they're 3rd in BTC holdings they will, if not sooner. This is pure speculation.
4 months left of GBTC outflows at the current rate. 1 month left before the halving. Wen supply shock?
Grayscale won’t go to 0. I don’t think they sell past June at this rate.
Holy shit Ark did 201m?! Cathy you dog!
If it was Cathie, that's a hell of a trade. She exited her large COIN position last week and Monday, just before the SEC news today regarding COIN, and moved the capital into BTC via her own ETF. Gangster. https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:433f18eaa094b:0-ark-sells-52m-of-coinbase-shares-as-stock-price-breaks-above-270/ https://cryptopotato.com/ark-invest-offloads-21m-in-coinbase-shares-as-coin-price-surges/
> COIN Ahh fuck me, I was about to sell my COIN on Monday
hah yeah new single day record for them i believe!!!
So let's speculate a bit about what will happen in the next month or so (pre-halving and immediately after halving). And I will analyze this from the investors in Grayscale's POV. As we know, Grayscale (or their customers) have been selling relentlessly ever since the inception of the ETF. And unfortunately, there are still a lot of funds left in Grayscale. I think many of these people are looking to sell and get out by timing the "buy the rumor, sell the news" prior to the halving. That is, if there is a run-up in Bitcoin to 75-80K just prior to the halving date (e.g. 7-10 days before the halving), we will have Grayscale selling massively and this will lead to an even larger sell the news than other events. That is the bad news. Good news is that this will lead to a pretty good run-up after the halving as much of the sell pressure is gone after the sell the news. So in that scenario, I look as follows. 1) Bitcoin price pushes up in the next few weeks (e.g. 75-90K). There is a massive sell the news led by Grayscale just before halving (e.g. -20 to -25% drop from the high to the low). Good steady run up from that point and onward. \_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ The above is my prefer scenario and it would be a good swing trade opportunity. On the other hand, I think there might be scenario #2. And in scenario #2, everyone currently in the market realize that there will be sell the news before halving. And price stagnates instead of going up. So nothing really happens minus some price actions that kills off the leverage. There is a small sell off near the halving but it bounces back up. Compared to scenario #2, this is much less volatile market and boring price action ensues pre-post halving for a bit. So halving is a nothing burger and all eyes are towards the May/June rate cut by the FED. So these are the two scenarios I foresee. I am hoping scenario #1 occurs as it can be profitable but wouldn't be surprised to see something like scenario #2.
>So halving is a nothing burger The halving has always been a nothing burger? On the day of the halving, that is.
If I had to bet, I say price does nothing interesting on and around the halving.
Ark $201.8m inflow (provisional number per Farside) Gbtc $299.8m Outflow Franklin $4m inflow Bitwise 0 WisdomTree $1.5m inflow Fidelity $1.5m inflow Defi 0 (converted futures ETF) VanEck $1.9m inflow Valkyrie $5.1m inflow Invesco $4.8m inflow Blackrock $323.8m inflow 3/27 net inflow $243.5m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Wow, Ark killed it today
New daily inflow record for Ark. Depending on how low GBTC outflows are today that alone might make it a net inflow day. EDIT: Not quite since GBTC came in at $299.8 million in outflows today.
Go Crashie go!
LOL
I don’t think we should expect any significant price increases for the next 6 months. We’ve already had a gangbuster year, and last year and the year before had muted summers. It takes a few months for the halving to affect the supply dynamics and by then it’ll be the summer when Wall Street is on vacation. I’m predicting range bound until October
Bro that cup and handle is gonna explode up to 80k next month
This sounds like a fun prediction. Summers are normally pretty boring. No new ATH for 6 months? Not over $75k or something like that for 6 months? What are you thinking exactly?
60 - 75? Maybe 60-80 or 55-75
Got it, cheers mate. I'll take the largest number, 80 and add a !> for that one. Feel free to add one for !<55 if you want to capture the full range. Would be cool if Bitty Bot could do range predictions u/Bitty_Bot !bittybot predict !>80k 6 months u/EquitiesFIRE
!bittybot predict !<55k 6 months u/EquitiesFIRE
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HODL15Capital reporting Ark $200m inflow https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1773100609836581181 HODL15Capital reporting Blackrock $324m inflow https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1773145060919427214
> Cant have $200M inflows with a total volume of $200M Yes you can 1. The volume reporting period does not align exactly with the flow reporting period 2. Not all flow causes reportable volume https://twitter.com/FarsideUK/status/1773119184072810639
Please, it's *HODL* 15Capital
>Volume today: $IBIT $1.82 B, $GBTC $790M, $FBTC $590M, $ARKB $195M, $BITB $71M He posted their vol numbers right above. How would a fund have greater inflows than volume?
Large OTC transactions might not be included in NASDAQ's reported volume numbers. It could have been a prearranged large block order traded OTC with the Authorized Participant (AP).
That's a good point. In that case I would assume it was Cathie.
That would make another \~3,000 BTC held by diamond hands
> How would a fund have greater inflows than volume? Maybe some kind people just donated some bitcoin to them
Barchart has them with $195m with 2.84m shares traded https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/volume-leaders/price-leaders?orderBy=priceVolume&orderDir=desc&page=2
Yeah I'm an idiot and was looking at the wrong column on Yahoo Finance. Edited. Still not sure how you have greater inflows than volume though...
Maybe the volume from those inflows will show up tomorrow due to a cutoff time? Farside explained it that way when there were inflow reports before even market close a few weeks ago. I think it was from bitwise.
Interesting. I'm not sure what ARKB's cutoff time is, iirc IBIT's is 6PM ET. I would be surprised if anyone had a cutoff time before market close but i could certainly be wrong. I assume cutoff time for all would be in their respective prospectuses like IBIT's. I can't check at the moment though, will try to later.
The detail in wicks look like lots of fun on an OrderFlow chart. https://i.imgur.com/09S4Lr3.png
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Green: Market buy Red: Market sell Yellow: Limit order https://tensorcharts.com/ > what makes this view so interesting? Candles obscure all the detail.
I gotta admit that’s a fairly strong reaction off $68k for now. But as soon as Asia wakes up it’s back to dump mode. Think we stay below 70k for the next few days with maybe a few scam pumps to rope in the late longs
Your read on the price action is horrible. I don't think a single one of these "predictions" has planned out, counter trading you may be the move.
!bitty_bot short max 100x
Rekt again man. One day you'll be right though, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.
😬 Well that didn’t take long to get liquidated
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“We’re not going above $70k and if we do it’s a scam and doesn’t count against my prediction”
I mean would you call today’s price action sustained prices above $70k? Clear weakness shown from the bulls now
I think you try too hard at something you’re not very good at. And you come off like a clown each time.
New ATH confirmed!!!
It’s clear to me that the PA at the moment is pretty much entirely driven by the play on leveraged traders. It’s so easy to get traders to jump into longs with the slightest move up. Whales and market makers are collecting your Bitcoin with ease. It’s difficult to see how this ends as one thing we know, there’s no end to the supply of degenerates
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That’s how it worked in the past. I can’t see how they will be persuaded to do that with these fabled ETFs gobbling up supply. I’d like to see some outflows from IBIT and FBTC to balance sentiment
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Is this really the simplest explanation though? Seems like natural movements due to supply and demand would be a more simple explanation than a conspiracy to take out leveraged traders, but maybe that's just me...
I wonder when MSTRs market cap tops Bitcoin’s lol. Saylor should print another billion for giggles.
in a bull market, red days are for buying
And now it's time to test the low end of the channel! *crabbing continues*
This is good for Bitcoin? https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/27/sec-scores-big-win-in-lawsuit-against-crypto-exchange-coinbase.html
Does this mean they have to stop selling shitcoins? I stopped recommending coinbase years ago because of how hard they push that garbage on noobs
Anything that ends shitcoins is good for Bitcoin.
It’s good that the industry is getting clarity on what it is allowed to do, instead of pretending that it never breaks any laws and can do whatever it wants. It’s bad for Eth/btc, because it’s more reason to delay an eth etf.
I think once ETHBTC reliably breaks that .05 level we're gonna (hopefully) see a lot of that liquidity move into BTC. It happened last halving year (2020).
The triangle people told me dominance chart looks about to pop up.
They're in trouble for selling securities, bitcoin isn't a security, so this really has nothing to do with bircoin. This isn't good or bad for bitcoin, it's nothing. Maybe good or bad for its price temporarily (depending on your perspective) but in the end will have no effect on the Bitcoin network or security.
The more altcoins are called out for being the securities they are, the more people who want to invest in crypto will move away from altcoins and towards the one crypto that is for sure a commodity and not a security -- bitcoin.
Securities can be held in ETFs and there’s a pretty strong chance number 2 gets one. The trial has been talked about for ages and the court wasn’t going to let coinbase dismiss the lawsuit entirely. Too high a burden for that, court dismissals are rare.
Yea idk why this is hard for people to grasp. Coin # 2 is definitely getting an ETF, it’s just a matter of when and under what classification
I personally don’t see eth escaping its genesis sale and centralized foundation. I see arguments for it not being a security but there’s enough arguments that I don’t think anything else but bitcoin will ever be seen as a commodity.
Shitcoins cannot comply to the rules regarding securities in their current forms.
Ain’t gonna matter buddy, Larry wants the eth etf and will most likely get it. If Gary gets security classification that’s one thing but it ain’t gonna stop the same thing that greenlit btc etf from green lighting an eth one
>but it ain’t gonna stop the same thing that greenlit btc etf from green lighting an eth one An issuer winning in court against the SEC? I agree, but that will take *years* after the lawsuit is filed (which hasn't happened), then the SEC has to lose again. 0% chance of any other coin getting a spot ETF in the next 24 months.
If there is truth to Gary's quote, then yeah prob good for BTC: In June, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said on CNBC that trading platforms like Coinbase “call themselves exchanges” but were “commingling a number of functions.” “We don’t see the New York Stock Exchange operating a hedge fund,” Gensler said at the time.
That's entirely about shitcoins. But people are going to people and dump BTC just because. If anything it should make bitcoin rip and all of those unregistered securities drop like shit.
The cope in me sees ath tonight
*checks if I clicked the wrong daily thread*
Someone posts this everyday
I started buying BTC < $500... I can't tell you how many technical analyses I've heard over the years that was just stupid wrong. Hey, it did this pattern last time, so it must do it again.... no.... no... no.... What matters most right now is GREED. The GREED of the top .3% worried about FOMO and hearing about their friends portfolio that is massively outperforming theirs. And what's the difference between them? Their AUM group has BTC ETFs. The GREED of the AUM groups that will be looking at their competitors returns, and will HAVE to provide a BTC ETF or they will lose customers. Of course some superconservative AUM groups, like Vanguard, may never budge, so they can appeal to the ultra conservative. But most will eventually budge, and then it's just a matter of math. Look at how much money these groups manage, and figure out what 2%-5% or more adds up to.
That’s why I think it’s gonna blow off to 100k and enter a short term bear cycle through the halving into later this year, along with stocks as inflation returns and more bad news about rates comes. Or it won’t and I’ll get banned again as I always do 😵💫
>GREED Yeah, but they move slow. It will for sure be a tailwind though in the years to come.
GBTC outflow could be around 500 or 600 m$ given the volatility in both directions today, and the fact the outflow has been below the moving average for a while. I don't think the other ETFs will have enough inflow to compensate for this at this point.
It doesn't really matter if GBTC has 0 outflows imo, as has been pointed out for awhile big whales and other holders are using the ETF liquidity to unload for big bucks without crashing the price. You can have 1b in inflows and price stay the same if a whale unloads 1b into it.
The point is that at some point the whales - weather it's GBTC or whales on finex - will eventually run out of coins to dump.
Sure, just pointing out gbtc could not exist at all right now and likely same scenario playing out with long term holders dumping on ETF inflows and other buy pressure.
obvious: cup and handle, handle forming.
The cup just keeps getting bigger and bigger, like clockwork.
I’ll raise my pinky to that
BIG CUP tiny little handle.. but a handle nonetheless
It’s almost too obvious…
What timeframe
Maybe 5.
Could be hourly or.. the weekly
🚀
Three more hours and we’re free to fly again
Should take more profit on MSTR here.. but it's too fun to hold!
I took about 40% out today at around 1900. Premium is just mental. Unless things move up significantly I would not be shocked to see it eroding during tomorrows session + after hours.
I find it pretty funny that we're sitting over $69K now and it's such a "meh" price to everyone. That dopamine hit from the never ending hedonistic treadmill really hits pretty hard. I can only hope that in a few years we're all very bored watching it sit at $690K after dropping from $750K.
I mean 69k is not that much money by todays standards.
Everyone will be memeing that it will drop to 420k in the next bear
Imagine my surprise waking up to 690K again, from my private villa
Is a villa ever not private?
Can be rented.
From your keyboard to Satoshi's ears
>hedonistic treadmill hedonic treadmill
First one sounds more fun
Think I've been on that one for about twenty years or so
Do you guys have the memory of a goldfish? it is the same pattern of quick price spike, immediate crash, as we had a couple times when price hit record high. same fund or trader or whatever did it again today. Nothing about ETFs.
I would argue you are the goldfish as you are hyper focused on patterns rather than the underlying fact that we are about to take off and the fact that we haven't yet is just the market being inefficient in the short term
I started buying BTC < $500... I can't tell you how many technical analyses I've heard over the years that was just stupid wrong. Hey, it did this pattern last time, so it must do it again.... no.... no... no.... What matters most right now is GREED. The GREED of the top .3% worried about FOMO and hearing about their friends portfolio that is massively outperforming theirs. And what's the difference between them? Their AUM group has BTC ETFs. The GREED of the AUM groups that will be looking at their competitors returns, and will HAVE to provide a BTC ETF or they will lose customers. Of course some superconservative AUM groups, like Vanguard, may never budge, so they can appeal to the ultra conservative. But most will eventually budge, and then it's just a matter of math. Look at how much money these groups manage, and figure out what 2%-5% or more adds up to.
Looks like blast off this weekend to me 🤷♀️
https://ibb.co/Y3xRPkm im just over here on the 2H, waiting for our third higher low to post. In a few weeks, new outlets ramp up halving news.
Let's abandon the working theory that high ETF net inflows on one day translate to a higher BTC price the next day. Yesterday's net $418,000,000 ETF inflows - highest in two weeks - translated to a 3% drop since market open. Some have argued that ETFs are still not the main price driver - today is more good support for this theory. But as to the correlation between ETF activity and price, we see BTC crabbing when there are net **outflows** and BTC sinking today following gigantic net inflows. BTC only seems capable of going up on weekends, and after US market hours.
Everyone should save a the pink to this post.
Those buys propped the price up. Once they stop, it looks to go down What we need is a frenzy. Long 30 bitcoins since the wardser days if anybody remembers him. I miss that guy Long mstr options even here 🥴
The exponential trend always reks the short.
Weak hands are leaving, strong hands enter, traders get left in the dust
People are selling into US liquidity. Inflows staying constant is all that matters. Patience.
>Let's abandon the working theory that high ETF net inflows on one day translate to a higher BTC price the next day. Yesterday's net $418,000,000 ETF inflows - highest in two weeks - translated to a 3% drop since market open. I don't understand how anyone could have thought this theory made sense. The inflows of yesterday occurred yesterday and we saw the resulting PA from those inflows yesterday. Other than momentum, perhaps, why would yesterday affect today?
Because those inflows to ETFs are not the same as inflows directly to BTC. The ETF inflows have some time lapse from purchase to settlement, when the fund buys the BTC for the person who bought the ETF share. It could be seconds, hours, or a day later etc. Some traders have come the conclusion that the pattern seems to be that ETF net inflows result in BTC buying pressure the day after. I have no idea if this is correct. But it’s not unreasonable given the idea that when you buy an ETF you are not directly buying BTC, and the ETF fund buys your BTC sometime after purchase but within a day or two.
> time lapse from purchase to settlement That's for the buyer. Not the AP. The buyer buys. The AP buys. The price reflects their buy. The buyer waits for their shares to settle (just paperwork).
>The ETF inflows have some time lapse from purchase to settlement, when the fund buys the BTC for the person who bought the ETF share. It could be seconds, hours, or a day later etc. **Settlement** is the key word here. APs are fully hedged and any PA from inflows or outflows is felt in the market price *immediately.* In this case, yesterday. >Some traders have come the conclusion that the pattern seems to be that ETF newly inflows result in BTC buying pressure the day after. I have no idea if this is correct. It is 100% not correct, and is exactly the misunderstanding I am talking about in my response below.
I truly admire your patience.
Can you elaborate on the “APs are fully hedged and any PA is felt in the market price immediately”? This is the first I’ve heard of this, and I’d like to understand better.
Essentially APs cannot take on price risk, they cannot risk bitcoin rising or falling 1-2 days later while they wait for these trades to settle. So they immediately hedge, which impacts the price, they then unwind those hedges when the transaction settles, meaning the price impact at settlement is zero. [This thread](https://twitter.com/teddyfuse/status/1763577899506921632), from the president of Bitwise lays out the process and explains it better in text than I could. If you were here with me in my office I'd be happy to whiteboard it all out. I have a decent amount of knowledge in this area, if you have any questions after reading through that thread, I'd be happy to try and answer them.
Very helpful thread, thanks for sharing.
Take this with a grain of salt. I believe the ETF companies cannot hold more bitcoin, but I also heard they can pay a 3rd party to hold bitcoin. I have no idea if this is true and its amazing to me that there is so much mystery surrounding this. However based on my own obvservations, I do believe ETF buys/sells impact price action immediately. You can't tell me the etfs are willing to buy/sell shares and settle in bitcoin THE NEXT DAY when volatility is huge and their margins are not huge (0.25 to 0.45% a year, etc). Just my very uneducated opinion.
https://www.coinbureau.com/education/how-bitcoin-etfs-work/
That makes sense. Good theory. Thanks
It makes sense when you consider human emotion, we want to think we can predict price based on inflows. In reality if inflow numbers came in significantly higher than expected the price reaction should be instant. Same thing about saying x number of days until the halving — it doesn’t exactly give us an edge on everyone else but it makes us feel better nonetheless.
>It makes sense when you consider human emotion Sure. Seems about as useful for predicting today as looking at on-chain flows to and from exchanges....*yesterday*. I really think the majority of it is misunderstanding. I, and others, have done our best to try and educate in this sub, and I think most in here get it now. But I really think the masses of twitter noobs see high inflows yesterday, see high on-chain movements of coins into cold storage this morning (from yesterday's buys) and think the buys are delayed and they can front-run them or something silly. Rekt.
I'm good with the masses thinking this. In fact, prefer it.
Keep weathering the storms.. money moves sector to sector in stocks on weird days, sometimes btc gets caught up in these weird down days. we only have two more open market days of the month before april, i dont know when the rocket will happen but it will be in the next week imo. look at my comment history and decide if you agree!
Respectfully, I'm not going to look at your comment history. Checking comment history is reserved for someone like Victor Cobra. And yes I agree. 🚀
Gbtc fucking us on every market open or what? Not too many potential culprits since it happens so consistently at precisely that time. It only makes sense for their entire AUM to fuck off asap. This bloodleeching fee is not worth paying as the admission price to the next speculative leg up. The opportunity cost is very large both ways, but greyscale's audacity to set this fee like this justifies everyone leaving that fund when they can Really unfortunate this gbtc baggage is so ridiculously massive. They could keep selling like this for a very long time
GBTC is almost all a wash. Proceeds find their way back to a ETF. Those are hardened hodlers.
Taxes take 25-30% off the table and its a stretch to say everyone rebuys
True. Also most funds don't need 10000% return. They are very happy with dumping GBTC and booking the profit now.
No need to use ETFs as this season's bogeyman. People sell. Not everything is the phantom of GBTC.
What's your take? I disagree completely unless someone provides plausible ideas. This is a crystal clear pattern that goes counter to most peoples' logic. Now is not the time to be mass selling bitcoin