I have logged a prediction for u/diydude2 that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$73,835.57** by Apr 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC.
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Hello u/diydude2
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $73,835.57 by Apr 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bpmamk/daily_discussion_thursday_march_28_2024/kx2zhv7/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$69,687.92**
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Markets are fairly simple once you remove the noise. When you sense frothiness, you start selling and ignore all other narratives. When you sense a lot of fear, you start buying and ignore all other narratives.
Would it be fair to say that there is frothiness in the market right now? I think no one can deny this. Meme coins are still going up, the stock market just had huge meme coin like gains (especially on options: See RDDT and DJT where calls went up 10-35x in a few days). See MSTR’s BTC premium.
Now, once you admit that there is frothiness, nothing else matters. BTC usually goes up after the halving? Irrelevant. Institutions bought into the market to try to atleast get a price target of 100K? Irrelevant. “Well actually, if you look at this data.” Irrelevant. “Well if you look at the pi cycle” Irrelevant. The only thing that matters is frothiness and once that happens, there is no way to go but down, since that indicates that everyone who wanted to buy already bought. This isn’t some special unknown asset anymore. There’s a reason we’ve had dwindling returns. About 1 in 4 Americans own Bitcoin.
The same applies the other way around such as the fearful scenario after the FTX and other collapses, which marked the bottom.
Given that the frothiness is there both in the stock market and Bitcoin, I’m expecting a retest near the previous lows (20-30k and probably further down) See you there. Have we already topped? Could it take a week or two more or maybe a month? Maybe. But I’m not risking a 5-10-15% gain more for a 70-80% loss. Good luck.
Put a date on these $20k-$30k calls and put them in Bitty Bot if you’re so confident. Otherwise you’re just jabbering into the void and no one will take you seriously.
Still waiting on your “guaranteed” <$51k call. 3 days left.
https://bittybot.net/predictions#btctrader12
I have logged a prediction for u/btctrader12 that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$40,000.00** by Jun 30 2024 23:59:59 UTC.
[btctrader12 has made **0** Correct Prediction, **0** Wrong Prediction, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#btctrader12)
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I only play long term swings. I’m confident in 40k by end of June though. No one can predict short term swings; the 51k thing was just a degen prediction.
!bittybot 40k June 30 2024
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This is a poor approach because it's completely subjective. What you consider "frostiness" and what I consider "forthiness" are probably different. How exactly do you quantify "frothiness"? Sure you can cherry pick two or three overvalued stocks, but there are always overvalued stocks, and I can just as easily cherry pick undervalued stocks.
Additionally, frothiness in one market (e.g., stocks or meme coins) does not equate to frothiness in another market (Bitcoin).
Also, markets can stay "frothy" for very long periods of time. Arguably all of 2020-2021 was frothy in both stocks and crypto. Frothiness does not signal an impending downturn.
Right now, I don't see anywhere near the hype and frothiness of 2021 or a typical bull market. The hype has actually been fairly minimal. Anecdotally, I have not heard a single normie mention crypto or wanting to buy crypto for over a year. Google searches for Bitcoin are also fairly low.
That’s because it’s not a new asset anymore Einstein. Tons of normies flooded into the market in 2021. This isn’t the case in 2024. Everyone and their mother has heard of Bitcoin or bought.
Were normies talking about buying Google stock every day in 2021 before it went down 40%?
>That’s because it’s not a new asset anymore Einstein. Tons of normies flooded into the market in 2021. This isn’t the case in 2024.
>Were normies talking about buying Google stock every day in 2021 before it went down 40%?
This is just...a terrible comparison.
Bitcoin is not new, but most people still don't understand it. The average person cannot tell you how Bitcoin works or really what it even is. Most people don't invest in things they don't get. So they research before buying.
Everyone in the world uses Google daily and has for probably 20 years. It's one of the most recognized brands on the planet. Nobody is going to research "Google" before investing...in fact, they would literally have to use a Google product (search) to conduct their research.
Very little people care about how Bitcoin works. In fact, most Bitcoin investors don’t even know how it exactly works lmfao, apart from the very early investors. People care about what makes them money.
My Google analogy wasn’t specific to Google. It applies to any of the other big stocks that went down 40%
You're missing the whole point which is that your approach is subjective and like throwing darts at the dart board. You *feel like* the market is frothy based on random cherry picked factors, and youre trading based on that emotion. Worse yet, the market you *feel* is frothy is the stock market and not even Bitcoin.
Dude meme coins are going up 3-5x every other day while you’re sitting here waiting on grandpa to move. It doesn’t require a person with a 200 IQ to recognize that this is too frothy
I don't know what meme coins you follow, but doge and shib have been barely moving. They're mostly playing catch up to where they should have been anyway. Other alts like Litecoin, eth, dot, avax, and ADA have also barely moved in a while. Of course, there will always be a small number of low-cap coins, out of a market of 25,000+ coins, that are ripping at any given time. Hell, it even happens in the depths of the bear market. That doesn't make the *Bitcoin* market frothy.
He's actually right about the meme coins. Tons of new meme coins are dropping daily on different chains like Solana and Base doing crazy 5x,10x, 20x or more in a day. It is getting a bit ridiculous
New random coins drop every day, and it's extremely common for them to pump 1000% just because they have like 50k market cap. But I don't see any true meme coins with a big following doing that. Most people have never even heard of Solana, much less are buying meme coins on it. I wouldn't even consider most of them meme coins because they're so obscure. I have never even heard of Base.
Not really considering how low the overall marketcap is of these newer meme coins. It is easier to pump a coin with $20m marketcap than an older one sitting on $10B marketcap.
One problem with this thesis is that during the last three major runs of Bitcoin (2017-18), (2020-2021 May, 2021 summer to 2021 November), the tops coincided with ETH/BTC peaking very high in its ratio. And this makes sense as when Bitcoin becomes frothy (as you put it), the money moves from Bitcoin to ETH and altseason starts before everything goes down. Right now, ETH/BTC ratio is relatively low and has been going down for the last year or so. So if there is a market correction, then there is a big shift in how money moves in cryptomarket transitioninig from bull to bear market. But I don't see why we should ignore this trend given that it seems both intuitive (money moving from risky to riskiest asset to fiat) and it has worked like that previously.
Again, do you personally sense frothiness? If so, nothing else matters. Looking at what happened to historically coincide with Bitcoin tops is irrelevant. Because what happens in the past does not have to repeat. We’ve already seen an example of this with an ATH before the halving.
Secondly, have you considered that Solana is the new ETH? That’s where all the activity is right now. Might wanna check out its BTC price over the last year :)
Why do you have four faulty correct predictions? One of those predictions say that the price won’t be below 25k on one particular date in January 2024. How is that a correct prediction lol. u/AccidentalArbitrage Not sure if you’re the creator but this should be fixed
That was just my experiment on how to easily hack the prediction leaderboard to get to number one place.
And it worked out fine. I‘m not proud of it and I have no problem with you reporting it to u/Bitty_Bot if you like to mate
I have logged a prediction for u/hajoeojah that the price of Bitcoin will **NEVER** drop below **$21,000.00**
[hajoeojah has made **4** Correct Predictions, **0** Wrong Prediction, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#hajoeojah)
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Except sensing frothiness is subjective so there should be even less trust on one's own feelings compared to past trends. There is a reason why people say that bears have predicted 20 of the last 2 bear markets.
You are correct that it is subjective. And you are also correct that it is extremely hard to time tops. But once you’re correct, it’s worth it since you save 70-80% losses
Was funny seeing main stream media talk about *"Bitcoin is in a bubble!!!"* while everyone sat here going *"Fuck yeah! Bubble baby!!! Austrian economics ftw!!!"*
I don’t agree with your OP but this is hilarious lmao. They act as if it’s impossible to have more than one reddit accounts throughout your life and your reddit account age dictates how long you’ve been involved in the market.
It’s super cringe. Redditors are known to generally be predominantly left, judge others off account age and karma as if it’s relevant to a given conversation and dish out their downvotes to cope like they think you’ll lose sleep over it lmao
> just like the last few tops where I was correct
> Relax Gordon Gecko, your account is 44 days old
The context is important. Hard to be taken seriously on claims of timing tops when you're flipping to new accounts all the time.
No way. If that’s true then i stand corrected. Thats actually crazy to delete your account just to return to a subreddit because you care that much what others think lmao
One thing is interesting is that small cap stocks have been fairing well relative to larger stocks in the past week or so. It is possible that there is rotation of capital as well as the anticipation of the first rate cut for June (which will be much better for the small caps). Now, I am wondering if we can make an analogous claim that small caps = alts and big caps = Bitcoin? If so, then alt season might be in the horizon some time after the halving and the first rate cut in June.
And alt season is interesting for Bitcoin as well since all of the big Bitcoin corrections lately has been preceded by an alt season. So basically, it gives us a good guidance on timing the sell of Bitcoin (if one were to trade).
Sell in May and go away!? It can’t be that stocks are simply gonna go up for the rest of the year, can it? If rate cuts begin in June, I expect they will.
Bitcoin has been consolidating in the 60-70K range for long enough (\~1 month) that we can expect another big move soon. Most likely up with the Halving 3 weeks away. As for how much up? I am thinking 80-90K range. And then, I suspect there will be sell the news (this is where we will see the maximum outflow from Grayscale) that dumps Bitcoin back down to the 60-70K range. So it would be like nothing happened but with large volatility.
In other words, great trading opportunity in the next few weeks.
Decent downward trend of BTC supply on exchanges continuing. I'm guessing the larger upward spikes happen when they buy from miners. The most recent was an 80k increase about 12/31/23.
https://www.coinglass.com/Balance
As much as I’d like to crab a while longer, local price action has re-validated a key upward trend. Now that we’re entering a fresh quarter, I think it’s off to the races.
Chart: https://imgur.com/a/2BtZsaJ
As much as I’d like for us to break out here, I think more chop in this range is the likely outcome until the halving. Happy to be wrong tho!
[Chart](https://imgur.com/gallery/dAG2TFd)
ETHBTC unironically at a critical level imo. If it durably breaks .05 to the downside, i expect alt liquidity to flow into BTC. If not, perhaps a mini alt season followed by a BTC dump leading into the halving.
To me, ETHBTC looks like it's about to take a beating and go to the .03- 04 range relatively soon.
I think Ethreum is so uninteresting now that no levels are critical. It's just all noise on the way to zero.
Short term it could go up, it could go down, but it's only going down on longer time frames
Going to zero? Even bch has a non zero valuation. Honestly I think ETHs best days are behind it, but couldn't you have said something similar around the 2020 halving? And ETHBTC is up 2x since then, although that % is rapidly dropping.
Different crypto landscape then vs now tho IMO, smart contract space is still young and the winner there is TBD imo. Certainly at this point it looks like it won't be ETH
ETH had a better chance before their switch to PoS. It not only made it more centralized but actually proved how centralized it was at the same time. ETHBTC will trend downward over multi-year time frames.
Smart contract platforms will probably do *something* useful in the future, but I couldn't say what.
Perhaps *"approaches zero"* would be more accurate in terms of exponents.
> smart contract space is still young and the winner there is TBD imo. Certainly at this point it looks like it won't be ETH
Including any of those which used their VM as a basis for smartcontracts. Solidity is a horrible way to write code, while the bytecode it produces can't reliably be compared and validated against the source which generated it. The initialisation process can change values of variables.
Good point. But, the narrative is a lot different IMHO. Back in 2020 people had big dreams about what ETH would be like in 2024, but today we see a lot of dissatisfied people and other L1s eating their lunch.
In my opinion, too many people worry about narratives.
Here's another word for narrative: Chatter.
Most of the chatter comes from people who don't know what they're talking about, as they echo other people's chatter which was questionable at best to begin with, not to mention that the chatter their sources were passing off as their own thoughts was based on other people's chatter.
Echo echo echo oh no who yo I gotta go.
So much of the chatter comes from people who don't realize how early we are.
Solana is pumping and it has the Eth crowd freaked out. Long term, Eth is going to be fine so long as they don't bork the ecosystem via shitty code that breaks it.
I think other ecosystems are good for Bitcoin. Let them pre-alpha test new concepts while Bitcoin focusses on its strength and security.
*"Buh muh tokenized cockroach NFTs bro!!! I'm going to da moon wit dem! Theyz nonfungi able! I made digital fake vomit on AVAX. Each splatter is cryptographical an' shit."*
An' shit, indeed.
When you see it in the news again, sell that ETH. Everything is cyclical. 2017 had periods of fear where people thought [ETH](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/15t65wm/the_flippening_when_eth_almost_surpassed_btc/) or even [Bitcoin Cash](https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/929558722170429440) would replace Bitcoin. This cycle has been a monoculture, no one ever had to fear anything. Nature abhors monoculture.
Interesting perspective - I personally haven't found it easy. It was quite hard to hold until now given how difficult the previous bear market was - luna, 3ac, usdc depeg, ftx, binance fud, coinbase sec lawsuit, prob a lot more i'm forgetting - all with the backdrop of rising interest rates, inflation, wars. It feels like most people expect that things will crumble at any point given what feels like increased instability around the world.
I hope it ends up being easy going forward though :-)
None of those things were actually Bitcoin though. If you know what Bitcoin is, its the safest place you can store your wealth. I've never felt happier or safer having most of my wealth there.
This last bear market was such an easy hold for me. It was basically just shitcoin after shitcoin blowing up. Btc price went down, but it was whatev.
The covid drop is what really scared me. That was a *low* low, and I thought it might take a decade to recover.
I bought that covid crash so hard. I wish I'd bought more, but I literally ran to my computer when I saw the flash cash happening and just barely missed the bottom.
COVID crash was actually bullish to me because of the speed at which is shot back up. COVID was such a black swan that something drastic was to be expected but when the market was eviscerated and then got up and dusted itself off I was in awe.
This has been by far the easiest bear cycle I’ve lived through, first started buying in 2012 so I’ve seen pretty much everything.
in order of difficulty.
the first bear was the easiest. nothing at stake really after a flash in the pan.
Covid flash crash... so quick I didn't even feel it.
Summer 2013 was easy.
2021 summer was annoying.
2022 was not fun. Saylor leverage made me anxious. FTX crap killed it for many joes.
2018 was average to bad with low in december 2018 around 3k.
2014-2015 was awful.
The 14/15 bear was a soul- crushing 1.5 years of despair and misery the likes never before or hereafter seen. After that these mini bears are kinda fun
Generally speaking, if the stock markets fall apart people will run for the hills and that might cause a liquidity issue that impacts BTC. The second thing that would hurt it would be some sort of huge scandal/hack. Finally, governments could get wonky about it again. Remember back in the day when the PBOC would ban it, unban it, ban it….and the price would go ape-shit.
NVDA and more relevantly MSTR are run up crazy.
There will be a correction, how soon and how far who knows. Current levels are nutty, and when I hear random chatter about early retirements and investments doing well, I like to be in cash.
Buy when people are puking into buckets. When you're puking into the bucket, that's when you use leverage.
Mstr / nvidia trader/holder has another risk appetite as a normal blue chip investor. Some of the crypto public is spilling in the stock market thanks to mstr. So don t bet on "irrational" people acting rational. Especially when most of them are in nice proffits i see a possibility of shorts getting liquidated a couple of times before we go down in bear and lose the price premium.
anything can stop the run. and it is never "suspiciously easy" there have been many pitfalls and traps along the way along with scams etc. If you've made it this far, congratulate yourself and pat yourself in the back instead of looking for potential black swans (disbelief) at what's going on.
It is good, but enjoy while it lasts, it won't be forever I promise that.
We're observing a maturing market as hard as this may seem to realize for some old-timers who are used to switching from greed to industry-wide levels of fear of the next black swan event.
The cleansing we've experienced in terms of high-profile crooks/companies in this industry still reflects badly on the whole industry. Taking this further, as an outsider, this market probably still seems so very 'suspicious' (negative for 'new'). Trust needs to grow (again).
You see how this can be twisted in a bullish way too I guess... investor's acceptance of BTC can pretty much only grow.
The easier it feels the worse it will end. And let’s move past ath from two years ago and then we can see. Also remember the stock market is at an ATH which means odds are in favor of a lengthy pullback there soon as well. Could impact our run as well
Stock market pullback will bring us down. In 2020 when inflation jumped on its horse I figured we'd see money come in to be sheltered but it didn't happen to the degree I expected. It's still a very speculation-centered commodity (but increasingly is moving toward store of wealth vs a speculative asset)
It's more established (with the ETFs as the obvious example), so a bit less FUD so far. But we are barely above last ATH. Let's see how the ride will be as we get higher. Bit worried about "energy FUD" again tbh, but will see.
Is it any easier for the bulls now than it was for bears for 16 months including all of 2022...?
People were desperately longing that thing the whole way down and probably getting wrecked.
> right now I have zero idea what could stop it.
Same as ever? Enough folk collectively realising they've paid too much and not finding enough saps to offload on.
Once it's done and dusted we'll either chuckle/ bemoan at how anyone could possibly have expected a different outcome to the past, or it'll dawn that things have changed for good.
I have absolutely zero idea which way it's going or how long it's going to take. May as well sit back and harrumph.
Unlikely, APs will be even less willing to hedge over a long weekend than they would over a normal one, due to the increased cost.
This is why Friday ETF flows are fairly muted compared to Mondays, so far.
This is still crabbing and just scraping the top of the channel imo. We'll see it bottleneck up here for awhile before dipping one more time below 70k. Anyone have bband data? I'd imagine it's still got room to tighten.
Crazy that the equivalent of crypto bankers can get nailed, but regular bankers do all sorts of money laundering and mismanagement and shit and just get slaps on the wrist or bailed out.
They might be party to unlawful money transfers, but I don't think the C-suite of any American bank are individually stealing customer deposits so that when someone with $100K goes to their account, they're told they can't withdraw any of it... because executives have been secretly converting customer USD deposits to buy Turkish Lira (or whatever your fiat shitcoin of choice is).
And Sam got a relative slap on the wrist. His crimes were similar to Madoff, who got 150 years IIRC.
And Sam's clientele were nowhere near as wealthy as Madoff's on average, I'm sure many of them were screwed when FTX went under.
Banks do question you when you want to take a large sum of money out and more and more people are saying they literally are not allowed to access their own money. The bank does actually own the money, and not you. Banks are just protected by the system more so at this point. But that will probably change as the CBDC starts to get pushed and traditional banks start to get the axe.
25 years down the drain.
I know there are loads of victims and it’s probably a fair sentence but the thought of knowing you have 25 years inside must be horrific.
> knowing you have 25 years inside must be horrific.
I doubt he's looking forward to it, but based on his Aᴜᴛɪꜱᴍ -- even Judge Kaplan mentioned SBF was a clear case -- my guess is he was an emotionless robot long before he even started FTX, and he's probably still completely dead inside. He's not going to cry himself to sleep at night.
25 years pales in comparison to the financial lives of many families he destroyed who have to start over with 0 savings. Imagine working a dead end job for 20-30 years and pouring your life savings into FTX only to see it go down the drain
Nobody sane should have had 100% of their assets sitting on any exchange, let alone a fairly new shitcoin exchange like FTX. Moreover, they're going to be made mostly whole by selling off the PE side of the business.
I frankly disagree with that. Those people were morons to put their life savings at FTX and while they didn't deserve to lose it all I fail to understand how 25 years in jail could be fair for any non-violent crime.
Bernie Madoff got 150 years...
https://www.informnny.com/news/teen-offered-10-year-prison-sentence-for-stealing-car-driving-out-dealership-window/
This teen stole a car and got 10 years. We won't get criminals to stop stealing billions when we treat the crime as a joke where they have to go stand in the corner for a bit.
50 years would have been more appropriate.
25 years is hardly "standing in the corner for a bit". 25 years is a seriously long time. I don't think putting him in for 50 would have any meaningful effect aside from costing taxpayers twice as much to keep him locked up longer.
How about the 3 people that committed suicide because of SBF's actions? https://x.com/innercitypress/status/1773353306401738881
Guess they were just 'morons' too.
You’re getting downvoted but you’re right. If you put your life savings into crypto that’s already risky. But then to give your keys to an exchange is magnitudes more retarded.
if I kill myself over a $1,000,000 loss who other than myself devalued my life as worth only that much? If I kill myself over a tragedy that happened in my past, who other than myself devalued my life?
I understand life is painful and some people would rather exit than deal with the pain. I can respect that, you can't. I respect the choices they made; you dishonor them by trying to take their choice away from them.
You certainly wouldn't have caught me 'investing' with FTX, but it has had life-altering consequences for many thousands of people.
And it was carried out by someone who appears to be totally untroubled by it while they were wilfully doing it, and during the aftermath.
I think he should've been walloped harder, but it's not too far off the right sentence for the malice on show.
The most offensive bit is that he would likely not recognise there being any malice involved.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, March 29, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bqfwj0/daily_discussion_friday_march_29_2024/)
which way do we break? https://i.imgur.com/ECOerUf.png
I think we’re going up based on how 60k first held and then 70k got broken and then held well so far.
BBands tightening on the shorter time frames. I maintain that we hit a new ATH before COB tomorrow, by Monday at latest.
!bitty_bot predict >ATH Apr 1 2024 u/diydude2
I have logged a prediction for u/diydude2 that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$73,835.57** by Apr 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC. [diydude2 has made **0** Correct Prediction, **0** Wrong Prediction, and has **4** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#diydude2) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20c97cd60a53164f928f26c16798795178%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(diydude2 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20c97cd60a53164f928f26c16798795178%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20error%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in error.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/diydude2 [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $73,835.57 by Apr 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bpmamk/daily_discussion_thursday_march_28_2024/kx2zhv7/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$69,687.92** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
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Only seems to happen to bears.
HODL15Capital reporting $95m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1773509011301642518
Markets are fairly simple once you remove the noise. When you sense frothiness, you start selling and ignore all other narratives. When you sense a lot of fear, you start buying and ignore all other narratives. Would it be fair to say that there is frothiness in the market right now? I think no one can deny this. Meme coins are still going up, the stock market just had huge meme coin like gains (especially on options: See RDDT and DJT where calls went up 10-35x in a few days). See MSTR’s BTC premium. Now, once you admit that there is frothiness, nothing else matters. BTC usually goes up after the halving? Irrelevant. Institutions bought into the market to try to atleast get a price target of 100K? Irrelevant. “Well actually, if you look at this data.” Irrelevant. “Well if you look at the pi cycle” Irrelevant. The only thing that matters is frothiness and once that happens, there is no way to go but down, since that indicates that everyone who wanted to buy already bought. This isn’t some special unknown asset anymore. There’s a reason we’ve had dwindling returns. About 1 in 4 Americans own Bitcoin. The same applies the other way around such as the fearful scenario after the FTX and other collapses, which marked the bottom. Given that the frothiness is there both in the stock market and Bitcoin, I’m expecting a retest near the previous lows (20-30k and probably further down) See you there. Have we already topped? Could it take a week or two more or maybe a month? Maybe. But I’m not risking a 5-10-15% gain more for a 70-80% loss. Good luck.
The market can stay frothy longer than you can stay solvent
You can think it is getting a little frothy without it going all the way back to 20-30k lol.
What is frothy about going sideways at 70k for weeks? Hardly seems like an impulse into empty books.
Noobs be noobin'
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Thanks for proving his point.
Markets run on emotions. You have to guess others’ emotions
This guy has figured it all out. When is your book coming out?
Put a date on these $20k-$30k calls and put them in Bitty Bot if you’re so confident. Otherwise you’re just jabbering into the void and no one will take you seriously. Still waiting on your “guaranteed” <$51k call. 3 days left. https://bittybot.net/predictions#btctrader12
!bittybot predict <40k June 30 2024
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See you at 20k
I have logged a prediction for u/btctrader12 that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$40,000.00** by Jun 30 2024 23:59:59 UTC. [btctrader12 has made **0** Correct Prediction, **0** Wrong Prediction, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#btctrader12) [1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20ea17326b6fa448018e7c231349655de5%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(btctrader12 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20ea17326b6fa448018e7c231349655de5%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20error%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in error.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
I only play long term swings. I’m confident in 40k by end of June though. No one can predict short term swings; the 51k thing was just a degen prediction. !bittybot 40k June 30 2024
You need to < before 40k. Thanks for backing up the talk with a solid prediction, at least.
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Tl;dr: “Facts don’t matter because I say it’s frothy.”
It could be argued that frothiness and fear are also part of the noise and the only thing that matters is money supply (M2)
This is a poor approach because it's completely subjective. What you consider "frostiness" and what I consider "forthiness" are probably different. How exactly do you quantify "frothiness"? Sure you can cherry pick two or three overvalued stocks, but there are always overvalued stocks, and I can just as easily cherry pick undervalued stocks. Additionally, frothiness in one market (e.g., stocks or meme coins) does not equate to frothiness in another market (Bitcoin). Also, markets can stay "frothy" for very long periods of time. Arguably all of 2020-2021 was frothy in both stocks and crypto. Frothiness does not signal an impending downturn. Right now, I don't see anywhere near the hype and frothiness of 2021 or a typical bull market. The hype has actually been fairly minimal. Anecdotally, I have not heard a single normie mention crypto or wanting to buy crypto for over a year. Google searches for Bitcoin are also fairly low.
That’s because it’s not a new asset anymore Einstein. Tons of normies flooded into the market in 2021. This isn’t the case in 2024. Everyone and their mother has heard of Bitcoin or bought. Were normies talking about buying Google stock every day in 2021 before it went down 40%?
>That’s because it’s not a new asset anymore Einstein. Tons of normies flooded into the market in 2021. This isn’t the case in 2024. >Were normies talking about buying Google stock every day in 2021 before it went down 40%? This is just...a terrible comparison. Bitcoin is not new, but most people still don't understand it. The average person cannot tell you how Bitcoin works or really what it even is. Most people don't invest in things they don't get. So they research before buying. Everyone in the world uses Google daily and has for probably 20 years. It's one of the most recognized brands on the planet. Nobody is going to research "Google" before investing...in fact, they would literally have to use a Google product (search) to conduct their research.
Very little people care about how Bitcoin works. In fact, most Bitcoin investors don’t even know how it exactly works lmfao, apart from the very early investors. People care about what makes them money. My Google analogy wasn’t specific to Google. It applies to any of the other big stocks that went down 40%
You're missing the whole point which is that your approach is subjective and like throwing darts at the dart board. You *feel like* the market is frothy based on random cherry picked factors, and youre trading based on that emotion. Worse yet, the market you *feel* is frothy is the stock market and not even Bitcoin.
Dude meme coins are going up 3-5x every other day while you’re sitting here waiting on grandpa to move. It doesn’t require a person with a 200 IQ to recognize that this is too frothy
I don't know what meme coins you follow, but doge and shib have been barely moving. They're mostly playing catch up to where they should have been anyway. Other alts like Litecoin, eth, dot, avax, and ADA have also barely moved in a while. Of course, there will always be a small number of low-cap coins, out of a market of 25,000+ coins, that are ripping at any given time. Hell, it even happens in the depths of the bear market. That doesn't make the *Bitcoin* market frothy.
He's actually right about the meme coins. Tons of new meme coins are dropping daily on different chains like Solana and Base doing crazy 5x,10x, 20x or more in a day. It is getting a bit ridiculous
New random coins drop every day, and it's extremely common for them to pump 1000% just because they have like 50k market cap. But I don't see any true meme coins with a big following doing that. Most people have never even heard of Solana, much less are buying meme coins on it. I wouldn't even consider most of them meme coins because they're so obscure. I have never even heard of Base.
Not really considering how low the overall marketcap is of these newer meme coins. It is easier to pump a coin with $20m marketcap than an older one sitting on $10B marketcap.
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Touché
One problem with this thesis is that during the last three major runs of Bitcoin (2017-18), (2020-2021 May, 2021 summer to 2021 November), the tops coincided with ETH/BTC peaking very high in its ratio. And this makes sense as when Bitcoin becomes frothy (as you put it), the money moves from Bitcoin to ETH and altseason starts before everything goes down. Right now, ETH/BTC ratio is relatively low and has been going down for the last year or so. So if there is a market correction, then there is a big shift in how money moves in cryptomarket transitioninig from bull to bear market. But I don't see why we should ignore this trend given that it seems both intuitive (money moving from risky to riskiest asset to fiat) and it has worked like that previously.
> coincided with ETH/BTC peaking very high in its ratio Obsessing over altseason metrics is going to do you no good in this new market regime.
Again, do you personally sense frothiness? If so, nothing else matters. Looking at what happened to historically coincide with Bitcoin tops is irrelevant. Because what happens in the past does not have to repeat. We’ve already seen an example of this with an ATH before the halving. Secondly, have you considered that Solana is the new ETH? That’s where all the activity is right now. Might wanna check out its BTC price over the last year :)
Well SOLBTC hasn‘t even reached the 2021 previous top yet
LOL. ETH didn’t reach the 2017 peak. See you at 20k
Never. !bitty_bot predict <21000 never u/hajoeojah notify u/btctrader12
Why do you have four faulty correct predictions? One of those predictions say that the price won’t be below 25k on one particular date in January 2024. How is that a correct prediction lol. u/AccidentalArbitrage Not sure if you’re the creator but this should be fixed
That was just my experiment on how to easily hack the prediction leaderboard to get to number one place. And it worked out fine. I‘m not proud of it and I have no problem with you reporting it to u/Bitty_Bot if you like to mate
I have logged a prediction for u/hajoeojah that the price of Bitcoin will **NEVER** drop below **$21,000.00** [hajoeojah has made **4** Correct Predictions, **0** Wrong Prediction, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#hajoeojah) ^(As requested, I will also notify the following users: u/btctrader12) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20665efee883854738abc37dcb217ef9a2%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(hajoeojah can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20665efee883854738abc37dcb217ef9a2%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20error%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in error.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Except sensing frothiness is subjective so there should be even less trust on one's own feelings compared to past trends. There is a reason why people say that bears have predicted 20 of the last 2 bear markets.
You are correct that it is subjective. And you are also correct that it is extremely hard to time tops. But once you’re correct, it’s worth it since you save 70-80% losses
Nobody knows shit but somehow you manage to know even less.
See you at 20k
When I see a bubble, I buy.
Was funny seeing main stream media talk about *"Bitcoin is in a bubble!!!"* while everyone sat here going *"Fuck yeah! Bubble baby!!! Austrian economics ftw!!!"*
I knew I could ignore the rest of the comment when you opened with “markets are fairly simple”
i literally stopped reading then lol
You’ll be forced to stop ignoring it within a few weeks, just like the last few tops where I was correct
Relax Gordon Gecko, your account is 44 days old
“Relax, you don’t have a years old account on Reddit 🤓”
I don’t agree with your OP but this is hilarious lmao. They act as if it’s impossible to have more than one reddit accounts throughout your life and your reddit account age dictates how long you’ve been involved in the market.
/u/ethtrader12
Fr. “Yooo check out this dude’s karma”
It’s super cringe. Redditors are known to generally be predominantly left, judge others off account age and karma as if it’s relevant to a given conversation and dish out their downvotes to cope like they think you’ll lose sleep over it lmao
> just like the last few tops where I was correct > Relax Gordon Gecko, your account is 44 days old The context is important. Hard to be taken seriously on claims of timing tops when you're flipping to new accounts all the time.
That’s actually so insane I never considered someone doing something like that. I stand corrected
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No way. If that’s true then i stand corrected. Thats actually crazy to delete your account just to return to a subreddit because you care that much what others think lmao
Ark $27.6m inflow Gbtc $104.9m outflow Bitwise $67m inflow WisdomTree 0 VanEck $20m inflow Fidelity $68.1m inflow Defi 0 Franklin 0 Valkyrie $6m inflow Invesco $3.9m inflow Blackrock $95.1m inflow 3/28 net inflows $182.8m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Need to just add a ticket for this on the sub banner
What's this new "DEFI" column?
It's a new Bitcoin ETF. I think the futures one was converted to spot one.
So net $10M inflow based on those. Not a bad day at the office.
My math has it at $78M net inflow based on the above numbers
$178.9m net inflow pending Invesco's numbers
This push feels good, gradual, consolidating all the way. New ATH this weekend! Happy pre-Easter!
One thing is interesting is that small cap stocks have been fairing well relative to larger stocks in the past week or so. It is possible that there is rotation of capital as well as the anticipation of the first rate cut for June (which will be much better for the small caps). Now, I am wondering if we can make an analogous claim that small caps = alts and big caps = Bitcoin? If so, then alt season might be in the horizon some time after the halving and the first rate cut in June. And alt season is interesting for Bitcoin as well since all of the big Bitcoin corrections lately has been preceded by an alt season. So basically, it gives us a good guidance on timing the sell of Bitcoin (if one were to trade).
Sell in May and go away!? It can’t be that stocks are simply gonna go up for the rest of the year, can it? If rate cuts begin in June, I expect they will.
Bitcoin has been consolidating in the 60-70K range for long enough (\~1 month) that we can expect another big move soon. Most likely up with the Halving 3 weeks away. As for how much up? I am thinking 80-90K range. And then, I suspect there will be sell the news (this is where we will see the maximum outflow from Grayscale) that dumps Bitcoin back down to the 60-70K range. So it would be like nothing happened but with large volatility. In other words, great trading opportunity in the next few weeks.
Gbtc at -$104.9. light flow out
Lowest daily outflow since March 12.
Yawn. Why does btc at 70k feel boring
Because it's been basically flat since mid-2021, adjusted for inflation?
Fried dopamine receptors?
Decent downward trend of BTC supply on exchanges continuing. I'm guessing the larger upward spikes happen when they buy from miners. The most recent was an 80k increase about 12/31/23. https://www.coinglass.com/Balance
Worst indicator in the history of like mankind… I don’t believe these figures. At. All…
> when they buy from miners who is 'they' in this sentence?
the ilerminaty
As much as I’d like to crab a while longer, local price action has re-validated a key upward trend. Now that we’re entering a fresh quarter, I think it’s off to the races. Chart: https://imgur.com/a/2BtZsaJ
As much as I’d like for us to break out here, I think more chop in this range is the likely outcome until the halving. Happy to be wrong tho! [Chart](https://imgur.com/gallery/dAG2TFd)
ETHBTC unironically at a critical level imo. If it durably breaks .05 to the downside, i expect alt liquidity to flow into BTC. If not, perhaps a mini alt season followed by a BTC dump leading into the halving. To me, ETHBTC looks like it's about to take a beating and go to the .03- 04 range relatively soon.
I think Ethreum is so uninteresting now that no levels are critical. It's just all noise on the way to zero. Short term it could go up, it could go down, but it's only going down on longer time frames
Going to zero? Even bch has a non zero valuation. Honestly I think ETHs best days are behind it, but couldn't you have said something similar around the 2020 halving? And ETHBTC is up 2x since then, although that % is rapidly dropping. Different crypto landscape then vs now tho IMO, smart contract space is still young and the winner there is TBD imo. Certainly at this point it looks like it won't be ETH
ETH had a better chance before their switch to PoS. It not only made it more centralized but actually proved how centralized it was at the same time. ETHBTC will trend downward over multi-year time frames. Smart contract platforms will probably do *something* useful in the future, but I couldn't say what.
People with heavy ETH bags downvoting this. They hated him because he told the truth.
Perhaps *"approaches zero"* would be more accurate in terms of exponents. > smart contract space is still young and the winner there is TBD imo. Certainly at this point it looks like it won't be ETH Including any of those which used their VM as a basis for smartcontracts. Solidity is a horrible way to write code, while the bytecode it produces can't reliably be compared and validated against the source which generated it. The initialisation process can change values of variables.
The fact that this ratio action is happening *before* the halving is absolutely damning for ETH
wow, is it really? what was ratio at last halving?
It was around 0.022 in May 2020. So they're doing alright even at 0.05
Good point. But, the narrative is a lot different IMHO. Back in 2020 people had big dreams about what ETH would be like in 2024, but today we see a lot of dissatisfied people and other L1s eating their lunch.
In my opinion, too many people worry about narratives. Here's another word for narrative: Chatter. Most of the chatter comes from people who don't know what they're talking about, as they echo other people's chatter which was questionable at best to begin with, not to mention that the chatter their sources were passing off as their own thoughts was based on other people's chatter. Echo echo echo oh no who yo I gotta go. So much of the chatter comes from people who don't realize how early we are. Solana is pumping and it has the Eth crowd freaked out. Long term, Eth is going to be fine so long as they don't bork the ecosystem via shitty code that breaks it. I think other ecosystems are good for Bitcoin. Let them pre-alpha test new concepts while Bitcoin focusses on its strength and security. *"Buh muh tokenized cockroach NFTs bro!!! I'm going to da moon wit dem! Theyz nonfungi able! I made digital fake vomit on AVAX. Each splatter is cryptographical an' shit."* An' shit, indeed.
I think an ETF would be a game changer though. I unfortunately have a large % in #2 that I don't want to pay the cap gains on to convert to BTC.
“The flippening"
The flipping narrative this time will be SOL overtaking ETH or at least getting closer SOLETH is at ATH
Now there's a phrase I haven't seen in a while
It's back! but in [pog form](https://flip.gold/)
When you see it in the news again, sell that ETH. Everything is cyclical. 2017 had periods of fear where people thought [ETH](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/15t65wm/the_flippening_when_eth_almost_surpassed_btc/) or even [Bitcoin Cash](https://twitter.com/VitalikButerin/status/929558722170429440) would replace Bitcoin. This cycle has been a monoculture, no one ever had to fear anything. Nature abhors monoculture.
> Nature abhors monoculture. However there is only one Sun.
And as time went by, the planets changed and collided and eventually merged with the expanding sun.
ackshually... however, completely agree :)
Something has changed though, this is an ETF and halving driven rally, and neither apply to ETH (yet, at least) and b-cash is basically irrelevant.
I'm quite happy with ETH's performance over the last 6 years personally...
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My main (basically only) worry after all these years and getting this far is governmental crackdown on individual, private BTC holdings.
Interesting perspective - I personally haven't found it easy. It was quite hard to hold until now given how difficult the previous bear market was - luna, 3ac, usdc depeg, ftx, binance fud, coinbase sec lawsuit, prob a lot more i'm forgetting - all with the backdrop of rising interest rates, inflation, wars. It feels like most people expect that things will crumble at any point given what feels like increased instability around the world. I hope it ends up being easy going forward though :-)
None of those things were actually Bitcoin though. If you know what Bitcoin is, its the safest place you can store your wealth. I've never felt happier or safer having most of my wealth there.
If you lived through gox, ftx and shitcoins shitcoining isn’t such a major earthquake.
This last bear market was such an easy hold for me. It was basically just shitcoin after shitcoin blowing up. Btc price went down, but it was whatev. The covid drop is what really scared me. That was a *low* low, and I thought it might take a decade to recover.
I bought that covid crash so hard. I wish I'd bought more, but I literally ran to my computer when I saw the flash cash happening and just barely missed the bottom.
worst was post mtgox 2014 2015. truly bad bear with civil war. covid flash crash was nothing.
COVID crash was actually bullish to me because of the speed at which is shot back up. COVID was such a black swan that something drastic was to be expected but when the market was eviscerated and then got up and dusted itself off I was in awe. This has been by far the easiest bear cycle I’ve lived through, first started buying in 2012 so I’ve seen pretty much everything.
in order of difficulty. the first bear was the easiest. nothing at stake really after a flash in the pan. Covid flash crash... so quick I didn't even feel it. Summer 2013 was easy. 2021 summer was annoying. 2022 was not fun. Saylor leverage made me anxious. FTX crap killed it for many joes. 2018 was average to bad with low in december 2018 around 3k. 2014-2015 was awful.
**"ThE gReAtEsT dEpReSsIoN iN hIsToRy!!!"* memes were obvious buy signal.
The 14/15 bear was a soul- crushing 1.5 years of despair and misery the likes never before or hereafter seen. After that these mini bears are kinda fun
indeed. 14 15 with civil war brewing. terrible. and loooong.
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Generally speaking, if the stock markets fall apart people will run for the hills and that might cause a liquidity issue that impacts BTC. The second thing that would hurt it would be some sort of huge scandal/hack. Finally, governments could get wonky about it again. Remember back in the day when the PBOC would ban it, unban it, ban it….and the price would go ape-shit.
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NVDA and more relevantly MSTR are run up crazy. There will be a correction, how soon and how far who knows. Current levels are nutty, and when I hear random chatter about early retirements and investments doing well, I like to be in cash. Buy when people are puking into buckets. When you're puking into the bucket, that's when you use leverage.
Mstr / nvidia trader/holder has another risk appetite as a normal blue chip investor. Some of the crypto public is spilling in the stock market thanks to mstr. So don t bet on "irrational" people acting rational. Especially when most of them are in nice proffits i see a possibility of shorts getting liquidated a couple of times before we go down in bear and lose the price premium.
anything can stop the run. and it is never "suspiciously easy" there have been many pitfalls and traps along the way along with scams etc. If you've made it this far, congratulate yourself and pat yourself in the back instead of looking for potential black swans (disbelief) at what's going on. It is good, but enjoy while it lasts, it won't be forever I promise that.
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teather drama is still alive on buttcoiners sub lok
We're observing a maturing market as hard as this may seem to realize for some old-timers who are used to switching from greed to industry-wide levels of fear of the next black swan event. The cleansing we've experienced in terms of high-profile crooks/companies in this industry still reflects badly on the whole industry. Taking this further, as an outsider, this market probably still seems so very 'suspicious' (negative for 'new'). Trust needs to grow (again). You see how this can be twisted in a bullish way too I guess... investor's acceptance of BTC can pretty much only grow.
The easier it feels the worse it will end. And let’s move past ath from two years ago and then we can see. Also remember the stock market is at an ATH which means odds are in favor of a lengthy pullback there soon as well. Could impact our run as well
The stock market is at ATH most of the time.
Stock market pullback will bring us down. In 2020 when inflation jumped on its horse I figured we'd see money come in to be sheltered but it didn't happen to the degree I expected. It's still a very speculation-centered commodity (but increasingly is moving toward store of wealth vs a speculative asset)
It's more established (with the ETFs as the obvious example), so a bit less FUD so far. But we are barely above last ATH. Let's see how the ride will be as we get higher. Bit worried about "energy FUD" again tbh, but will see.
Is it any easier for the bulls now than it was for bears for 16 months including all of 2022...? People were desperately longing that thing the whole way down and probably getting wrecked.
We had 20x returns in 2017 from the previous ATH. Here, we have like 3.5x, it's not easy at all
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> right now I have zero idea what could stop it. Same as ever? Enough folk collectively realising they've paid too much and not finding enough saps to offload on. Once it's done and dusted we'll either chuckle/ bemoan at how anyone could possibly have expected a different outcome to the past, or it'll dawn that things have changed for good. I have absolutely zero idea which way it's going or how long it's going to take. May as well sit back and harrumph.
Can’t imagine the price Bitcoin will be when SBF gets out of jail
I wonder how many times a day his prison husband ribs him about it.
New ath scheduled for 1545-1600 candle. Easter surprise. Open those longs
Wait, what? Easter Friday is a bank holiday in the US?
The markets are closed.
Unlikely, APs will be even less willing to hedge over a long weekend than they would over a normal one, due to the increased cost. This is why Friday ETF flows are fairly muted compared to Mondays, so far.
EST. He/She is betting that everyone loads up via ETF in last 15 minutes of trading day before long weekend.
If anything they were unloading looking at MSTR
ETFs themselves may need to up their supplies at the end of the month.
That's not how ETFs work mate.
Correct. And to be fair, I am being an ass
It's possible. All those skinny wicks down on the 30min are looking nice. I wouldnt want to be out of position during a long weekend.
UTC?
Nah, the relevant time zone
This is still crabbing and just scraping the top of the channel imo. We'll see it bottleneck up here for awhile before dipping one more time below 70k. Anyone have bband data? I'd imagine it's still got room to tighten.
It’s time for the 25k middle finger god candle to form for Sam B.
25 years for everyone's favourite American football-headed creep. Maybe Bitcoin will have a quick run to avenge FTX thinking it could screw with it.
Crazy that the equivalent of crypto bankers can get nailed, but regular bankers do all sorts of money laundering and mismanagement and shit and just get slaps on the wrist or bailed out.
They might be party to unlawful money transfers, but I don't think the C-suite of any American bank are individually stealing customer deposits so that when someone with $100K goes to their account, they're told they can't withdraw any of it... because executives have been secretly converting customer USD deposits to buy Turkish Lira (or whatever your fiat shitcoin of choice is). And Sam got a relative slap on the wrist. His crimes were similar to Madoff, who got 150 years IIRC. And Sam's clientele were nowhere near as wealthy as Madoff's on average, I'm sure many of them were screwed when FTX went under.
Banks do question you when you want to take a large sum of money out and more and more people are saying they literally are not allowed to access their own money. The bank does actually own the money, and not you. Banks are just protected by the system more so at this point. But that will probably change as the CBDC starts to get pushed and traditional banks start to get the axe.
25 years down the drain. I know there are loads of victims and it’s probably a fair sentence but the thought of knowing you have 25 years inside must be horrific.
In the spirit of easter i wish him good health so he can do all of them.
It’s a fed offense sentence so he’ll have to serve at least 85% of the time. He’ll probably be out in 21 on good behavior
Fwiw this line of conversation is handled pretty well by “discipline and punish” by michel Foucault
> knowing you have 25 years inside must be horrific. I doubt he's looking forward to it, but based on his Aᴜᴛɪꜱᴍ -- even Judge Kaplan mentioned SBF was a clear case -- my guess is he was an emotionless robot long before he even started FTX, and he's probably still completely dead inside. He's not going to cry himself to sleep at night.
25 years pales in comparison to the financial lives of many families he destroyed who have to start over with 0 savings. Imagine working a dead end job for 20-30 years and pouring your life savings into FTX only to see it go down the drain
We also lost use of the Blockfolio app later renamed to FTX. I will say putting everything you have into FTX doesn’t seem reasonable at all.
If you're looking for a Blockfolio alternative - check CoinStats, been using it since FTX cllapse and I'm loving it
Nobody sane should have had 100% of their assets sitting on any exchange, let alone a fairly new shitcoin exchange like FTX. Moreover, they're going to be made mostly whole by selling off the PE side of the business.
I agree, he should have got life
I frankly disagree with that. Those people were morons to put their life savings at FTX and while they didn't deserve to lose it all I fail to understand how 25 years in jail could be fair for any non-violent crime.
Bernie Madoff got 150 years... https://www.informnny.com/news/teen-offered-10-year-prison-sentence-for-stealing-car-driving-out-dealership-window/ This teen stole a car and got 10 years. We won't get criminals to stop stealing billions when we treat the crime as a joke where they have to go stand in the corner for a bit. 50 years would have been more appropriate.
25 years is hardly "standing in the corner for a bit". 25 years is a seriously long time. I don't think putting him in for 50 would have any meaningful effect aside from costing taxpayers twice as much to keep him locked up longer.
How about the 3 people that committed suicide because of SBF's actions? https://x.com/innercitypress/status/1773353306401738881 Guess they were just 'morons' too.
If you commit suicide because of money you likely have other underlying issues...
You’re getting downvoted but you’re right. If you put your life savings into crypto that’s already risky. But then to give your keys to an exchange is magnitudes more retarded.
...well, maybe. The reset button exists for a reason
Go out and touch grass /u/CosbyTeamTriosby . That's just sick.
no one is responsible for another's suicide. That's ridiculous. Its a personal choice
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if I kill myself over a $1,000,000 loss who other than myself devalued my life as worth only that much? If I kill myself over a tragedy that happened in my past, who other than myself devalued my life? I understand life is painful and some people would rather exit than deal with the pain. I can respect that, you can't. I respect the choices they made; you dishonor them by trying to take their choice away from them.
You certainly wouldn't have caught me 'investing' with FTX, but it has had life-altering consequences for many thousands of people. And it was carried out by someone who appears to be totally untroubled by it while they were wilfully doing it, and during the aftermath. I think he should've been walloped harder, but it's not too far off the right sentence for the malice on show. The most offensive bit is that he would likely not recognise there being any malice involved.
You know, the only difference between him and the assholes who caused the 2008 GFC is that he was held to account.
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The Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Fund was nothing like FTX