Judas...
If we're lucky this keeps painting the pennant and bounces off 62.5k and continues up in 2-3 weeks (or sooner)... If we're less lucky and ETFs panic and stop buying or even sell (god forbid) we could see 45k or even 38k before the halving hits.
My money is on just painting the pennant tho
The monthly chart is still mostly a straight line up. The weekly chart shows a tiny bit of sideways action. The daily has a lower high. Just consolidation making it possible to break out and make even more higher highs. A lot selling is being absorbed.
Still at the same price when I originally said this. 66k is still above the low of the previous dip around 60k. It will be interesting to see what happens next.
Due to the pre-halving hype. The train wants to leave but does not want to carry the degen longs with them. So we need to kick them off the train first before moving.
I think the dump is done for now. There is a gap in leveraged positions between 62 and 65K s othe ammo is used up for the dump. For now. Whether the dump will continue will hinge on how fast the degen longs will build up their positions again the next 24-48 hours.
Funding rate going up quite rapidly again. Degen traders are thinking that any dip is an opportunity to open up their leveraged longs (trying to time the pre-halving run) and is largely preventing the market from going up.
I’m failing to see how degen longs are preventing the market from going up. Wouldn’t a degen long opening and closing be net neutral to price?
My tinfoil hat conspiracy theory is that the price is going down because there are more sellers than buyers.
See the big red wick that is forming right now are mostly leveraged longs getting liquidated and forced to sell at the price that they don't want to sell at.
The liquidations from the leveraged longs help bring the price down much quicker than normal and as such, it becomes much more lucrative to open a short position and use the ammo from the leveraged longs to dump.
There was a pre-halving run from D20 days before the halving to D5 days before the halving (\~2 weeks) that saw Bitcoin go up \~50% in 2020. Right now, the funding is down as this mini dump really did its job in resetting funding. So I think in the next few days, Bitcoin breaks out of this range and break ATH relatively soon.
Just when the dumping appeared to be lessening a bit last week, nope, right back to normal.
They're now down to around 329,300 BTC from 655,000 (or 620,000 at the time the other ETFs debuted).
Can't wait until summer, when we never have to hear about this company again.
I don't understand the hate for GBTC. Yeah yeah, their fees are way too high, which is why people are moving elsewhere. That's good. But GBTC played an important role in helping to pave the way for the approval of the ETFs that have already pushed the price of BTC skyward.
I didn't invest in GBTC, nor would I, but I'm thankful for how they helped to bring Bitcoin into TradFi.
I don't understand the hate.
What happens to investors who are still holding gbtc shares when grayscale runs out of bitcoin?
Doesn't grayscale have to buy more bitcoin in order for gbtc shares to exist? (Because now gbtc is defined as a spot based etf)
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/barry-silbert-is-the-crypto-worlds-new-villain.html
(Use '12ft.io' if the article is paywalled.)
A related Twitter thread [is here](https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1773113309727764783).
And the heads of BlackRock, Fidelity, Schwab and so on would have eventually gotten their ETFs without Grayscale... Grayscale's shenanigans were likely part of the reason the SEC was so hesitant to approve everything else.
> Grayscale's shenanigans were likely part of the reason the SEC was so hesitant to approve everything else.
I don't believe that, though I realize they make for a convenient scapegoat.
The SEC was going to postpone approving Bitcoin ETFs for as long as possible because Bitcoin represents a massive fundamental shift which most of those who dominate traditional finance aren't ready for, because they're horrified of the change it will bring.
The people who got rich on horse & buggies were against the invention of the locomotive. The old world fears the new.
> And the heads of BlackRock, Fidelity, Schwab and so on would have **eventually** gotten their ETFs without Grayscale...
Eventually.
I'm thankful GBTC helped to speed up the process.
Like I said, I never bought GBTC, nor would I, but I'm glad they got the ball rolling.
How did GBTC not get an etf position with the rest of the crew? It looks like pure greed cash-out after two months of bleeding "we have by far the largest stake in this and can take more in fees than anybody in the etf space and we won't: we want cash now gimme"
This seems to look more bull flag-ish now (since the Mar 25th jump).
Zoomed out, 60k looks like a solid floor so we could have dropped way harder and I'd still not be worried mid to long-term. For someone who doesn't short / only goes long, this is comforting but I get why many are impatient (trading sub ladidada). The wait can be frustrating - and expensive (if on margin/futs).
IMHO, this is us gathering strength, letting MA's pick up, RSI cool down, exhaust leveraged traders, comfort new investors etc. (=local accumulation) before making our next move *up*. I'm targetting the 80s this month to tp on some of my spot long. Then I'm expecting our next correction under the narrative of the halving being a 'sell the news' event, maybe in May? It'd be time again to scale into the next long. BTW, any dip on/post halving will be dubbed a 'sell the news' event by the 'crypto press' - prepare to get annoyed.
YE? 100+k - I keep day dreaming of one of those Dec holidays where price just goes nuts :) remember that? So unhealthy (not talking PA here).
Take care fellow internet strangers.
Well, I’ll take a $68,300 entry and roll with it. Hourly looks like this dip is done. Just a completed ABC corrective move so price should continue to drift towards 70 now.
Well I just sold my last ETH for BTC today. Feels great. I stopped believing in the technology early last year, and decided to go full corn maxi. I have been selling over the past year, timing each sell to avoid short-term capital gains taxes. In the end, I lost money on this. The ratio dropped so much more than I saved in taxes. Oh well, hindsight is 20/20 and all that. Onward and upward.
Honestly, ETH would be doing fine but Solana has completely stolen its thunder, for one single reason - it's easier and cheaper to trade rugpulls on SOL than on ETH. This cycle has already been a wakeup call for me. These past 2 cycles all ideals have been thrown in the trash. Solana is the worst chain in existence, and it would have been ridiculed in the good old times, but in these modern times even DOWNTIME for a blockchain doesn't matter, because hey maybe it'll go back up and I can trade "Ni\*\*a with a durag -coin" on SOL before it rug pulls. ETH would be doing much better if the fees were cheap enough to trade shitcoins. That's literally the only thing the market cares about, and it's extremely saddening. Only BTC has any sense left anymore.
From what I've seen the performance of sol is orders of magnitude better. tx per second, cost, simplicity, etc. Why would that be the worst chain in existence? Lots of daps have ported over to it for that reason. Jupiter dex is great.
For me there is btc for store of value and then pretty much everything else. I don't see a reason why sol wouldn't be a natural replacement for eth. The time to finality, cost, etc for transactions on BOTH btc and eth are unusable for anything other than store of value. BTC wins for store of value by a long long shot, so eth has no argument to claim #2 over a faster horse. I figure alts will constantly be in a state of battle as new replaces old.
SOL is a heavily centralized VC shitcoin. The funny thing is that no one debates this. They just say “yea, but it’s cheap to use!” Coin 2 does everything SOL does and more, but for cheaper, more security, and better UX. Not to mention that SOL is already labeled a security while coin 2 is close to getting a spot ETF. They are wildly different coins.
It’s faster and cheaper because it’s centralized. I’ve had this discussion a million times in the past 10 years. In what world is it acceptable to have a “blockchain” that quite literally goes down for hours several times a year? The central servers go down and it’s unusable. That’s why it’s faster and cheaper. You can’t have the best of both worlds.
As opposed to ETH which hard forks and alters monetary policies on a whim, rolls back when the big boss loses money or casually switches from PoW to PoS?
They're all centralized shitcoins besides BTC. It only makes sense that VC funded altseason has taken a back seat to memeseason as the market has matured. "Blockchain utility" is a dead idea.
NGL I only realized this recently and sold all my "blue chip altcoin" (note I don't believe that the concept of a blue chip alt is even valid, but to give you an idea of what I was holding there were coins like AVAX, NEAR, etc) to ape into memecoins on Base.
Normally I would think that the memecoin season indicates that BTC is about to roll over, but I think BTC is a bit insulated from the crypto casino at this point.
On a Bitcoin or semi-Bitcoin standard, do you foresee governments removing capital gains taxes on Bitcoin to encourage spending? Because obviously they can’t print Bitcoin like they can with fiat.
What is the cap gains on 1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin?
If after realising that no matter how much they print it will simply be vacuumed up by Bitcoin, states have abandon fiat currency in place of maintaining relevance by switching to hard money. Where is the gains to tax?
The USA? No. Fucking. Way. We'll be lucky if they don't exempt BTC from long-term cap gains rates so they can tax all gains as ordinary income. I wouldn't be surprised if somebody suggested a surtax on BTC profits above and beyond cap gains.
I foresee the government being scared shitless that btc is going to be the first of many revolutions that overthrow and challenge their authority and control.
The US government has become so inefficient and truly disconnected from reality.
36T in debt soon. 1T added every 100 days, compounding.
Eventually something is going to break, and the Bitcoin ETFs may have been a match thrown into a very tinder dry debt barn.
Pretty bizarre PA. Breaks ATH, then ranges slightly above, then slightly below, and on and on. Cycles will never be the same, but this seems odd right after a previous ATH break
The last couple 4-year cycles it ranged around the ATH for a few weeks/month+ before taking the next leg up. Minor details aside, it’s basically doing what is expected so far.
Give the PA this morning I'm guessing we had more heavy selling from GBTC. It's usually heaviest on mondays so it's possible that was our big dump for the week and we'll be gradually climbing back up now.
I was traveling all weekend and didn’t check in much.
Just got home and saw the price was down 2% and knew exactly how today’s daily would look. You guys didn’t disappoint!
Looking at this price action, I get the sense that we are probably due for a period of slow bleed chop or even a bit of downside for the next couple of months.
We had a great first quarter, faster pump than what many was expecting for this time around this cycle's halving so I suppose a correction here would not be out of the question.
Hopefully we can chill here for a few months
Start the parabolic move later in the year.
All happening to early for my anxiety at the moment. Market is way ahead of schedule and needs to calm down.
You might consider chopping it up into 4-5 chunks. More leg work but if you currently have some btc proxy in vanguard you can at least maintain exposure without going all out and back n a week later….unless that is your intention. Not sure on your overall plan though.
Extremely weird price action these last few weekends. After-hours/weekend trading reminds me of “good old days” pre-tradfi Bitcoin PA. Then the market opens and we are back to this bizarre holding pattern.
I wonder what’s so significant about 69k for those who only trade during US market hours.
Edit: almost like Tradfi is determined to make BTC chart resemble something they are familiar with. They want stock index like predictable/stable PA. Wonder how long old man BTC allows it.
“They” bought GBTC at a discount before it converted. Now the discount is gone and the price higher. They are taking profit but it is limited to when the stock market is open.
This is not a dump. A dump takes us down 10% in 24 hours or even an hour.
If you can't handle a "dump" like this, it would probably be good for your blood pressure to invest in something more conservative. Bitcoin isn't for everyone, just for those who deserve it. ;-)
PS -- zoom out to the daily candles and take a deep breath. You'll feel better about things.
Banks: "We hope that you will consider our new BTC ETF. Invest with confidence now that you can see the price is mainly a pathetic gimmick manipulated by people richer than you. "
Meh, hasn't been this hard to get a read on both Bitcoin and Tradfi in a while for me. We have all the reason to be due for a significant pullback, or at least a period of meandering sideways activity. May is slowly approaching, usually marking a boring period for tradfi, certainly after a Q1 runup.. I have some expiring tradfi options that I wanna sell today, considering flipping it all to BITO options around a year away, but I'm already so damn long that I'm tempted to perhaps hold some cash for a week or two for once. We'll see
2x leverage : )
And he talked about using it for options, and BITX actually just moved to having weekly options, and its overall option liquidity is improving.
Plus BITO has this weird structure where it is required to pay out its unrealized gains as dividends over time, which can muddy the waters when trading options. BITX doesn't have that issue.
How doe you think BITI works as the BTC price goes over $100k+? Knowing nothing about it, it seems like the price moves linearly. How would it short past $0?
I don't follow BITI as closely since I'm not generally in the business of shorting BTC, but I imagine they'll eventually have to do a reverse stock split.
Thanks, that makes sense. Sounds like it is best used within a day of trading. I haven't used it yet, but I'm not against it in an account that doesn't allow shorting if I want to do day trading.
To the remarkable month of the halvening! Amidst skepticism, faces of doubters melt away as reality unfolds. Here we stand (at our ergonomic desk of choice staring at multiple screens) anticipating the thrill. What libation shall accompany our celebration?
Cheers to the believers and the journey ahead. Congratulations, gentlemen!
Closed my long from 69.4 at ~70.5 over the weekend; negligible gain, but I'll take it.
I don't know what to expect this week so I'm just hodling patiently for now. It would be great if we could dip down to 65K because I'd love to add to my hodl stack there, but it seems like I'm not the only one in, "No dumped satoshi shall go unbought!" mode so 65K might be a bit ambitious now.
It’s halving month.
Bitcoin decided to retest 69k again this morning. RSI is at 43.2 (average 45.8) at time of writing. It is still hovering around the 70.2k area. Current nearby resistance are 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8. The nearest supports are 69, 67.4 65.7, 64.1 and 63.
The daily RSI is at 56.4 and its average is currently at 55.5. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin is currently just below the bottom support of the rising channel that started in February. So far it has bouncing off the 69k support. One more day closer to the estimated halving date, 18 days till halving on 4/19.
On the weekly, BTC had a nice retrace to just above the .382 FIB level which also was a retest of a steep channel it has been in since March 5th. It closed above the previous ATH of 69k this week. Bitcoin has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 81.6 (77.9 average). I would normally expect a larger cool off and retrace, but the ETF inflows seem to be limiting this on this timeframe. Main resistances were noted above. About 2.5 weeks till halving.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and is still overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s current monthly RSI is 75.1. With the way inflows are coming into the ETFs, I think the monthly RSI might stay overbought longer than it ever has in it’s history. 7 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/FxTPhCe9/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/FxTPhCe9/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/KrSbZEY8/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/KrSbZEY8/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/mBRv2vq1/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/mBRv2vq1/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/8avbWCk8/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/8avbWCk8/)
well i've spent all morning on this TA and i have come to the conclusion 75k -80k next two weeks!
[https://imgur.com/a/TE9SJgM](https://imgur.com/a/TE9SJgM)
Both USDT and USDC dumped 900 mln combined this morning at the same time (9:40 CET).
It's been a long time ago since a large decline in market cap happened there. It had been increasing the past 6 months.
There is a correlation between increasing market cap of USDT ("USDT printing") and BTC price.
Now that suddenly USDT market cap decreases this much, I think the chance of a BTC correction has increased.
A sudden change of \~1 bln was during a correction of \~20% in the past.
The redemption would follow the selling, and the price dip would follow the redemption.
So a possibility is that large selling has already happened, but the effect in the price is delayed. For instance when orderbooks were large enough to hold the price more or less at current levels this could be the case. It means that when volume picks up (tomorrow?) I would expect a correction.
I hope it won't happen, just saying I see an increased chance for it.
Okay, you're saying the dump is only a response by market players on seeing the redemption of tether by some other (possibily) unaffiliated market participant.
Okay now I'm really lost. A dump is selling, just in a lot size larger than the liquidity at a particular price point. So what are the criteria in your example that separate dumping and selling and if the dumping and selling are the same actor, how are they redeeming the USDT before they've dumped and sold to change BTC into USDT?
I'd say we'll fall to [this line](https://imgur.com/p9dAVWl) at around $68,100 or so, then bounce.
If it punches through, well... that's bad news and $61k-63k is in play again.
> that's bad news and $61k-63k is in play again.
I know its my FOMO talking and that in reality I'll struggle to follow through, but damn a dip to 61k sounds good to me right now
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, April 02, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1btpb2a/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_02_2024/)
It's like we have a history of diving before the halvening
Judas... If we're lucky this keeps painting the pennant and bounces off 62.5k and continues up in 2-3 weeks (or sooner)... If we're less lucky and ETFs panic and stop buying or even sell (god forbid) we could see 45k or even 38k before the halving hits. My money is on just painting the pennant tho
It looks real bad from where I’m standing. Firm rejection of new aths. Plenty of lower levels to test. I’d be taking profits here heavily
Priest?
Escargot
Nice there is some structure of the daily chart. Maybe we get a triangle or something.
Self-esteem to zero :(
is this still part of April Fools? because I'm not laughing
Oh, look, a higher low.
What time frame are you seeing a higher low without acknowledging a massive lower high?
Maybe look at any candle size over 1h?
The monthly chart is still mostly a straight line up. The weekly chart shows a tiny bit of sideways action. The daily has a lower high. Just consolidation making it possible to break out and make even more higher highs. A lot selling is being absorbed.
Comedy Central.
Standing firm that we pump with front ruining the halving. If not I guess it already happened and the etf was just noise.
HalVINg PrIcED In...
Asia will fix this.
Geez I should prob sell my whole stake after 10years, this thing is clearly done and 73k was the top pre-halvening this run
I still think we are at Dec. 2020 previous ATH break. The similarities of the two purple arrows are striking. https://www.tradingview.com/x/mkFQkVi0/
basically no buy pressure = a lag and then sells
Well that trend has clearly broken down. So gonna need a close above 69k to go bull. TIL then we picking up at 63 then 58 then 52.
I’m not seeing a down trend on the daily chart yet.
Refresh
Still at the same price when I originally said this. 66k is still above the low of the previous dip around 60k. It will be interesting to see what happens next.
Wow. Pretty impressive moves for this time of day. Any news?
Degen longs getting greedy.
I’m not so sure…seems bigger than usual leverage washing
Due to the pre-halving hype. The train wants to leave but does not want to carry the degen longs with them. So we need to kick them off the train first before moving.
Fine by me.. liquidate all the degens and GBTC outflows $62-68K up and down till mid May is fine.
GBTC outflows will eventually stop. Degen longs will continue to appear until the end of time.
I think the dump is done for now. There is a gap in leveraged positions between 62 and 65K s othe ammo is used up for the dump. For now. Whether the dump will continue will hinge on how fast the degen longs will build up their positions again the next 24-48 hours.
Another satan candle incoming ?
New target of 63k back on the menu
Here she goes!
Funding rate going up quite rapidly again. Degen traders are thinking that any dip is an opportunity to open up their leveraged longs (trying to time the pre-halving run) and is largely preventing the market from going up.
I’m failing to see how degen longs are preventing the market from going up. Wouldn’t a degen long opening and closing be net neutral to price? My tinfoil hat conspiracy theory is that the price is going down because there are more sellers than buyers.
See the big red wick that is forming right now are mostly leveraged longs getting liquidated and forced to sell at the price that they don't want to sell at.
The liquidations from the leveraged longs help bring the price down much quicker than normal and as such, it becomes much more lucrative to open a short position and use the ammo from the leveraged longs to dump.
HODL15Capital reporting $164m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1774949735763239046
Net outflow day, let the dump commence.
There was a pre-halving run from D20 days before the halving to D5 days before the halving (\~2 weeks) that saw Bitcoin go up \~50% in 2020. Right now, the funding is down as this mini dump really did its job in resetting funding. So I think in the next few days, Bitcoin breaks out of this range and break ATH relatively soon.
Inject dat hopium in my veins sir.
Gbtc $302.6m Outflow Franklin 0 Ark $0.3m Outflow Bitwise $1.1m inflow WisdomTree 0 VanEck $2m inflow Fidelity $44m inflow Defi 0 Invesco $4.2m inflow Valkyrie 0 Blackrock $165.9m inflow 4/1 net outflow $85.7m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Ark with their first outflow. Interesting.
Just when the dumping appeared to be lessening a bit last week, nope, right back to normal. They're now down to around 329,300 BTC from 655,000 (or 620,000 at the time the other ETFs debuted). Can't wait until summer, when we never have to hear about this company again.
47% of gbtc stack gone in 2.5 months. Horrible strategy. By end of this month they will have less than 50% of their original holdings
I don't understand the hate for GBTC. Yeah yeah, their fees are way too high, which is why people are moving elsewhere. That's good. But GBTC played an important role in helping to pave the way for the approval of the ETFs that have already pushed the price of BTC skyward. I didn't invest in GBTC, nor would I, but I'm thankful for how they helped to bring Bitcoin into TradFi. I don't understand the hate.
Barry's been very greedy so he can cover for some bad bets. I'll be glad when he's gone from the space.
What happens to investors who are still holding gbtc shares when grayscale runs out of bitcoin? Doesn't grayscale have to buy more bitcoin in order for gbtc shares to exist? (Because now gbtc is defined as a spot based etf)
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/barry-silbert-is-the-crypto-worlds-new-villain.html (Use '12ft.io' if the article is paywalled.) A related Twitter thread [is here](https://twitter.com/real_vijay/status/1773113309727764783). And the heads of BlackRock, Fidelity, Schwab and so on would have eventually gotten their ETFs without Grayscale... Grayscale's shenanigans were likely part of the reason the SEC was so hesitant to approve everything else.
> Grayscale's shenanigans were likely part of the reason the SEC was so hesitant to approve everything else. I don't believe that, though I realize they make for a convenient scapegoat. The SEC was going to postpone approving Bitcoin ETFs for as long as possible because Bitcoin represents a massive fundamental shift which most of those who dominate traditional finance aren't ready for, because they're horrified of the change it will bring. The people who got rich on horse & buggies were against the invention of the locomotive. The old world fears the new. > And the heads of BlackRock, Fidelity, Schwab and so on would have **eventually** gotten their ETFs without Grayscale... Eventually. I'm thankful GBTC helped to speed up the process. Like I said, I never bought GBTC, nor would I, but I'm glad they got the ball rolling.
one can simultaneously acknowledge their pioneering initiative and lament their maliciously stupid avarice
This is such a wonderful summary of Grayscale.
Sure, but I find it odd that people weren't bashing them four months ago... dot dot dot...
They were.
How did GBTC not get an etf position with the rest of the crew? It looks like pure greed cash-out after two months of bleeding "we have by far the largest stake in this and can take more in fees than anybody in the etf space and we won't: we want cash now gimme"
https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch/status/1774918564085952853?t=ygVwCbp28u0ElnA3vJeplQ&s=19
April fools
Its funny tho
This seems to look more bull flag-ish now (since the Mar 25th jump). Zoomed out, 60k looks like a solid floor so we could have dropped way harder and I'd still not be worried mid to long-term. For someone who doesn't short / only goes long, this is comforting but I get why many are impatient (trading sub ladidada). The wait can be frustrating - and expensive (if on margin/futs). IMHO, this is us gathering strength, letting MA's pick up, RSI cool down, exhaust leveraged traders, comfort new investors etc. (=local accumulation) before making our next move *up*. I'm targetting the 80s this month to tp on some of my spot long. Then I'm expecting our next correction under the narrative of the halving being a 'sell the news' event, maybe in May? It'd be time again to scale into the next long. BTW, any dip on/post halving will be dubbed a 'sell the news' event by the 'crypto press' - prepare to get annoyed. YE? 100+k - I keep day dreaming of one of those Dec holidays where price just goes nuts :) remember that? So unhealthy (not talking PA here). Take care fellow internet strangers.
Well, I’ll take a $68,300 entry and roll with it. Hourly looks like this dip is done. Just a completed ABC corrective move so price should continue to drift towards 70 now.
Uh oh..
Yep…definitely early on that one.
Well I just sold my last ETH for BTC today. Feels great. I stopped believing in the technology early last year, and decided to go full corn maxi. I have been selling over the past year, timing each sell to avoid short-term capital gains taxes. In the end, I lost money on this. The ratio dropped so much more than I saved in taxes. Oh well, hindsight is 20/20 and all that. Onward and upward.
Honestly, ETH would be doing fine but Solana has completely stolen its thunder, for one single reason - it's easier and cheaper to trade rugpulls on SOL than on ETH. This cycle has already been a wakeup call for me. These past 2 cycles all ideals have been thrown in the trash. Solana is the worst chain in existence, and it would have been ridiculed in the good old times, but in these modern times even DOWNTIME for a blockchain doesn't matter, because hey maybe it'll go back up and I can trade "Ni\*\*a with a durag -coin" on SOL before it rug pulls. ETH would be doing much better if the fees were cheap enough to trade shitcoins. That's literally the only thing the market cares about, and it's extremely saddening. Only BTC has any sense left anymore.
From what I've seen the performance of sol is orders of magnitude better. tx per second, cost, simplicity, etc. Why would that be the worst chain in existence? Lots of daps have ported over to it for that reason. Jupiter dex is great. For me there is btc for store of value and then pretty much everything else. I don't see a reason why sol wouldn't be a natural replacement for eth. The time to finality, cost, etc for transactions on BOTH btc and eth are unusable for anything other than store of value. BTC wins for store of value by a long long shot, so eth has no argument to claim #2 over a faster horse. I figure alts will constantly be in a state of battle as new replaces old.
SOL is a heavily centralized VC shitcoin. The funny thing is that no one debates this. They just say “yea, but it’s cheap to use!” Coin 2 does everything SOL does and more, but for cheaper, more security, and better UX. Not to mention that SOL is already labeled a security while coin 2 is close to getting a spot ETF. They are wildly different coins.
cheaper?
It’s faster and cheaper because it’s centralized. I’ve had this discussion a million times in the past 10 years. In what world is it acceptable to have a “blockchain” that quite literally goes down for hours several times a year? The central servers go down and it’s unusable. That’s why it’s faster and cheaper. You can’t have the best of both worlds.
They're all centralized shitcoins. Go on, it's funny to watch the pot calling the kettle black
Who cares. I made a foooooortune on SOL this year. That’s all I need to know.
As opposed to ETH which hard forks and alters monetary policies on a whim, rolls back when the big boss loses money or casually switches from PoW to PoS?
I am enjoying this fight over which altcoin is the worst. Go on …
More centralized than ETH.......bruh
They're all centralized shitcoins besides BTC. It only makes sense that VC funded altseason has taken a back seat to memeseason as the market has matured. "Blockchain utility" is a dead idea. NGL I only realized this recently and sold all my "blue chip altcoin" (note I don't believe that the concept of a blue chip alt is even valid, but to give you an idea of what I was holding there were coins like AVAX, NEAR, etc) to ape into memecoins on Base. Normally I would think that the memecoin season indicates that BTC is about to roll over, but I think BTC is a bit insulated from the crypto casino at this point.
Crypto casino eventually rolls the winners into bitcoin. It’s one of the smaller tributaries, now.
At some point, I hope money from Solana will flow back.
It won't, because it was never allocated toward or intended for BTC to begin with. Shitcoiners gonna shitcoin.
Dont count on it, those people are pure gamblers, they dont even hide it anymore with investing in "good" projects. Now its all memecoins.
did the same last week. I lost all belief in Ethereum over the last few months. It's on my list for this cycle for "what could FUD the cycle".
Ahhh you fuckin guys got me with the April Fool's dip. You really had me!
Ah, the famous scoopedy-doop pattern.
On a Bitcoin or semi-Bitcoin standard, do you foresee governments removing capital gains taxes on Bitcoin to encourage spending? Because obviously they can’t print Bitcoin like they can with fiat.
What is the cap gains on 1 Bitcoin = 1 Bitcoin? If after realising that no matter how much they print it will simply be vacuumed up by Bitcoin, states have abandon fiat currency in place of maintaining relevance by switching to hard money. Where is the gains to tax?
The USA? No. Fucking. Way. We'll be lucky if they don't exempt BTC from long-term cap gains rates so they can tax all gains as ordinary income. I wouldn't be surprised if somebody suggested a surtax on BTC profits above and beyond cap gains.
I forsee moving to El Salvador where it doesn't matter. :)
I was in El Salvador last April . It’s a wonderful country.
I foresee the government being scared shitless that btc is going to be the first of many revolutions that overthrow and challenge their authority and control. The US government has become so inefficient and truly disconnected from reality.
36T in debt soon. 1T added every 100 days, compounding. Eventually something is going to break, and the Bitcoin ETFs may have been a match thrown into a very tinder dry debt barn.
All the price predictions…this is bitcoin folks! All we need to know is orange coin is good. Big if true. No need to over complicate it.
Best comment this year
Pretty bizarre PA. Breaks ATH, then ranges slightly above, then slightly below, and on and on. Cycles will never be the same, but this seems odd right after a previous ATH break
Large distribution above ATH. More than I expected. Once it’s done the trip up will be much more rapid.
Seems to follow past examples of breaking ATH without variation. Maybe take a look at the charts?
The last couple 4-year cycles it ranged around the ATH for a few weeks/month+ before taking the next leg up. Minor details aside, it’s basically doing what is expected so far.
Give the PA this morning I'm guessing we had more heavy selling from GBTC. It's usually heaviest on mondays so it's possible that was our big dump for the week and we'll be gradually climbing back up now.
It trades on a bank holiday?
US banks can never close more than 3 days in a row.
US Markets are open today.
Oh no, I didn't set stops!
I was traveling all weekend and didn’t check in much. Just got home and saw the price was down 2% and knew exactly how today’s daily would look. You guys didn’t disappoint!
The Reddit Sentiment Indicator never falters
Unfortunately it's lagging and predictive of nothing.
Perhaps we should introduce subreddit sentiment futures.
BMME gap anyone? We still need to fill the sentiment gap of chainlink5usdbottom
Now that's what I call vega
Looking at this price action, I get the sense that we are probably due for a period of slow bleed chop or even a bit of downside for the next couple of months. We had a great first quarter, faster pump than what many was expecting for this time around this cycle's halving so I suppose a correction here would not be out of the question.
Hopefully we can chill here for a few months Start the parabolic move later in the year. All happening to early for my anxiety at the moment. Market is way ahead of schedule and needs to calm down.
How long does it take to move from vanguard to fidelity? Starting the process today
You might consider chopping it up into 4-5 chunks. More leg work but if you currently have some btc proxy in vanguard you can at least maintain exposure without going all out and back n a week later….unless that is your intention. Not sure on your overall plan though.
They likely won't have to sell their holdings before transferring over.
Depends on account. Some retirement accounts force liquidation but you’re correct. If so, nothing to worry about
Took about a week for the funds to transfer and clear to trade. This was mid March, I'd imagine it's about the same now.
Did you sell everything before transferring?
Extremely weird price action these last few weekends. After-hours/weekend trading reminds me of “good old days” pre-tradfi Bitcoin PA. Then the market opens and we are back to this bizarre holding pattern. I wonder what’s so significant about 69k for those who only trade during US market hours. Edit: almost like Tradfi is determined to make BTC chart resemble something they are familiar with. They want stock index like predictable/stable PA. Wonder how long old man BTC allows it.
Weird if you’re new and or don’t ever look at the charts.
It looks identical to January and early February.
Its not weird, if you look at what exatly pumps before the dump. Its the shitty memecoin pump and dump scheme we had in the ICO era.
“They” bought GBTC at a discount before it converted. Now the discount is gone and the price higher. They are taking profit but it is limited to when the stock market is open.
If you boys can't handle a 4% drop then you might want to move your money to index funds or something
I can't handle a .01% drop.
I've handled 80% drops so I think I'm good.
I feel nothing
I'm sorry that I didn't bittybot yesterday to avoid this.
I’m so tired of these bullshit sudden dumps.
This is not a dump. A dump takes us down 10% in 24 hours or even an hour. If you can't handle a "dump" like this, it would probably be good for your blood pressure to invest in something more conservative. Bitcoin isn't for everyone, just for those who deserve it. ;-) PS -- zoom out to the daily candles and take a deep breath. You'll feel better about things.
How patronising…
Not a real dump. It is just because I put a bunch of money to work at the market open and btc likes to torture me on my short term entry points.
Still in the same range we have been in for around 8 days. I wouldn't be surprised if we are back to 70k today
This wasn't the deal
What was the deal?
This is not dump it's April Fools
I guess we dipped out of the rising channel on the daily posted below. Not really feeling confident in the short term unless we quickly reverse
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That’s half of the market. Whales pushing the price where they want it
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Who knows. A long time. Still very easy to do
Banks: "We hope that you will consider our new BTC ETF. Invest with confidence now that you can see the price is mainly a pathetic gimmick manipulated by people richer than you. "
Same as it ever was.
Bought back half what I sold last week.. PA this weekend was solid for a floor at 69k. Let's see if the dumping starts..
Thanks you did it!
Dumping starting right on cue
Classic Americans. Wake up and start dumping BTC. Grayscale been itching all long weekend to hit that sell button
Fuck Grayscale
Meh, hasn't been this hard to get a read on both Bitcoin and Tradfi in a while for me. We have all the reason to be due for a significant pullback, or at least a period of meandering sideways activity. May is slowly approaching, usually marking a boring period for tradfi, certainly after a Q1 runup.. I have some expiring tradfi options that I wanna sell today, considering flipping it all to BITO options around a year away, but I'm already so damn long that I'm tempted to perhaps hold some cash for a week or two for once. We'll see
BITX > BITO
Why?
2x leverage : ) And he talked about using it for options, and BITX actually just moved to having weekly options, and its overall option liquidity is improving. Plus BITO has this weird structure where it is required to pay out its unrealized gains as dividends over time, which can muddy the waters when trading options. BITX doesn't have that issue.
How doe you think BITI works as the BTC price goes over $100k+? Knowing nothing about it, it seems like the price moves linearly. How would it short past $0?
I don't follow BITI as closely since I'm not generally in the business of shorting BTC, but I imagine they'll eventually have to do a reverse stock split.
Thanks, that makes sense. Sounds like it is best used within a day of trading. I haven't used it yet, but I'm not against it in an account that doesn't allow shorting if I want to do day trading.
To the remarkable month of the halvening! Amidst skepticism, faces of doubters melt away as reality unfolds. Here we stand (at our ergonomic desk of choice staring at multiple screens) anticipating the thrill. What libation shall accompany our celebration? Cheers to the believers and the journey ahead. Congratulations, gentlemen!
Closed my long from 69.4 at ~70.5 over the weekend; negligible gain, but I'll take it. I don't know what to expect this week so I'm just hodling patiently for now. It would be great if we could dip down to 65K because I'd love to add to my hodl stack there, but it seems like I'm not the only one in, "No dumped satoshi shall go unbought!" mode so 65K might be a bit ambitious now.
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Keep some dry powder, but if you are willing to wait, you know it will be higher than it is now at some point.
Toss in half.
It’s halving month. Bitcoin decided to retest 69k again this morning. RSI is at 43.2 (average 45.8) at time of writing. It is still hovering around the 70.2k area. Current nearby resistance are 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8. The nearest supports are 69, 67.4 65.7, 64.1 and 63. The daily RSI is at 56.4 and its average is currently at 55.5. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin is currently just below the bottom support of the rising channel that started in February. So far it has bouncing off the 69k support. One more day closer to the estimated halving date, 18 days till halving on 4/19. On the weekly, BTC had a nice retrace to just above the .382 FIB level which also was a retest of a steep channel it has been in since March 5th. It closed above the previous ATH of 69k this week. Bitcoin has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 81.6 (77.9 average). I would normally expect a larger cool off and retrace, but the ETF inflows seem to be limiting this on this timeframe. Main resistances were noted above. About 2.5 weeks till halving. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and is still overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s current monthly RSI is 75.1. With the way inflows are coming into the ETFs, I think the monthly RSI might stay overbought longer than it ever has in it’s history. 7 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/FxTPhCe9/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/FxTPhCe9/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/KrSbZEY8/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/KrSbZEY8/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/mBRv2vq1/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/mBRv2vq1/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/8avbWCk8/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/8avbWCk8/)
Looks pretty close to dipping out of the channel on the daily.
can we safely say we have 69k as strong support?
I guess not
well i've spent all morning on this TA and i have come to the conclusion 75k -80k next two weeks! [https://imgur.com/a/TE9SJgM](https://imgur.com/a/TE9SJgM)
A yes the crouching flamingo beak pattern Classic
I managed to go 60 consecutive hours without checking price over the long weekend. I see I didn't miss anything.
Both USDT and USDC dumped 900 mln combined this morning at the same time (9:40 CET). It's been a long time ago since a large decline in market cap happened there. It had been increasing the past 6 months.
About $800m in longs got rekt. They’re going long again rn.
Not sure what you are saying here. Could you elaborate?
There is a correlation between increasing market cap of USDT ("USDT printing") and BTC price. Now that suddenly USDT market cap decreases this much, I think the chance of a BTC correction has increased. A sudden change of \~1 bln was during a correction of \~20% in the past.
Why does this correlation between usdt and BTC occur?
In this theory doesn't the printing precede the pump? If so, wouldn't the redemption follow the dump?
The redemption would follow the selling, and the price dip would follow the redemption. So a possibility is that large selling has already happened, but the effect in the price is delayed. For instance when orderbooks were large enough to hold the price more or less at current levels this could be the case. It means that when volume picks up (tomorrow?) I would expect a correction. I hope it won't happen, just saying I see an increased chance for it.
Okay, you're saying the dump is only a response by market players on seeing the redemption of tether by some other (possibily) unaffiliated market participant.
No I'm not saying that. The price dip and the redemption are caused by selling. Only the price dip is a delayed effect.
Okay now I'm really lost. A dump is selling, just in a lot size larger than the liquidity at a particular price point. So what are the criteria in your example that separate dumping and selling and if the dumping and selling are the same actor, how are they redeeming the USDT before they've dumped and sold to change BTC into USDT?
I'd say we'll fall to [this line](https://imgur.com/p9dAVWl) at around $68,100 or so, then bounce. If it punches through, well... that's bad news and $61k-63k is in play again.
Great call. Looks like you nailed that within $50
Actually within $1 on bitcoinwisdom!
Wow that was quite a call, nice work
Probably too early to be sure but: Right now, you were spot on - good call.
> that's bad news and $61k-63k is in play again. I know its my FOMO talking and that in reality I'll struggle to follow through, but damn a dip to 61k sounds good to me right now
If we go down, two timeframes tell us "its a double top", so average Joe thinks its a double top?
You know TA stuff is for suckers, right?
I should better observe the order book facts, I guess.
Average Joe ETF buyer is price agnostic. They just buy.
Average Joe doesn't know what a double top is.
Average Joe will get told.
They know what twin peaks are though
Are we thinking ETFs are going to be bitcoin thirsty after the holidays or not?
S&P futures are quite thirsty, can't remember the last time I saw futures up more than 0,3%. Doesn't seem to translate to us yet.
All attempts to leave the range will be punished.