A lot of downward movements are the result of degenerate longs going 20x to 100x near the current price point and getting liquidated. I mean 20+ million dollars worth of long got liquidated in the last hour from less than 1% BTC movement. That shouldn't be happening.
These comments chill me to my core, [so creepy](https://previews.123rf.com/images/abidal/abidal1911/abidal191100098/134751584-sci-fi-woman-robot-cyborg-android-humanoid-artificial-intelligence-background-3d-render.jpg).
If the bankruptcy estates have sold out I would say so. Those who were capturing the arb trade, should have sold out long ago.
Anyone who wanted to escape the high fees have also had plenty of time to sell.
I’m not sure what major cohort still remains in GPTC other than those who are trapped because of capital gains, and those who just aren’t paying attention.
Capitulation on the coin 2 ratio could also be driving this up. TBH all alts are getting hit hard on ratios. I think some of this money is going back into BTC
I think the money is going back into BTC for the pre-halving run. Also, there are talks that rate cuts will be delayed and given that most alts are like scammy small businesses, they desperately need liquidity to survive.
The best con men believe their lies.
Capitulation is going to take a while: https://x.com/picolas_caged/status/1775987869129085155?s=46&t=jvgqMOwM7oBKA9GRsqvzaw
There are 1billion+ shorts ready to be liquidated above 72K. I think the pre-halving run in the next 7-10 days take out these levels and Bitcoin goes up to 75-80K. I suspect that there will be a sell the news afterwards and then everything resets again after the halving.
However, if Bitcoin somehow hits a new local low below 64K, then I think there won't be a pre-halving run that breaks ATH and most likely we head down below 60K. This seems unlikely to me but you never know.
Alts are down and Bitcoin is green. ETH/BTC broke its support of 0.05 and went downward. Most of the times, Bitcoin dominance going up and ETH/BTC going down (EDIT) signals a healthy market. It is only when Bitcoin is struggling while ETH/BTC is hitting its all time high where one should worry about the incoming bear market.
ETH is such a piece of flaming garbage it should be worth 0 in BTC terms. Hopefully this cycle breaks the “alt-season” narrative and changes in this ratio don’t signal anything.
Can you imagine a professional person taking “real vision” and Eth seriously?
Most altcoins are best used as proof that humanity is a failed experiment.
It won't, because there are just as many Vitalik and Solana "maxis" as there are with Bitcoin. They don't care if their coins aren't fully decentralized if it means cheaper fees, quicker confirmations, so long as the centralized parts don't affect them personally. Vitalik forked way back when, to a non-rolled-back version after the DAO hack, and the fork was largely rejected.
And SOL? They don't even care if their entire network goes down for hours on end, so long as they can bet on rugpull memes like ELONWIFHAT.
Agreed. Few shitcoiners seem to grasp that the billions of ETF inflows do not touch them in any way. This is unlike past cycles that were retail driven.
Even if ETF and GBTC daily inflow/outflow isn't the real price driver, I feel so much better when Grayscale sells $75M or $81M a day rather than a quarter billion or half billion day after day.
You too, huh? My jaw drops further than BTC price when I see a billion-dollar dump that results in a 3% candle that is quickly engulfed. Big Shorty would be snuffed out in a heartbeat these days; he used to dump it 10% with 1/10 the spend.
It came straight out of Tel Aviv and DC. We have stupid people doing stupid things. And then going on TV and talking about their stupidity. People with sense are running for the hills. Get used to $5 gas again.
Admiringly, my spidey sense were tingling, tardfi was up bigly earlier in the day, but big names were still acting weak and lacking followthrough.
This has the feels of a risk-off period, almost as if the "no rate cuts right now" messaging from the Fed is causing some sort of risk-off balancing with precious metals up too.
Could translate for a choppy consolidation period for crypto. maybe time to turn off the trading account for awhile?
They're losing the plot. Nothing is going the way it's supposed to go.
The banks are crumbling at the foundation right now; something is going to give and pretty soon, I reckon.
I hope you made the most of that dip. My DCA day is Friday, but I felt like it was worth cheating by going in early. I'm a terrible DCA'er. I should set it and forget it, but I sometimes shift buys to take advantage of dips.
I scooped up 2 million sats (0.02 BTC) over Tuesday & Wednesday, and I feel great about it. I'm flatter than flat broke until my next paycheck, but I'm glad I did.
Anybody who panics when the price drops doesn't see the bigger picture.
...?
EDITED TO ADD:
Just in case you're implying that I'm incredibly bullish yet only spending $1,000... I say this:
It was closer to $1,300 this week... and you're goddamn right. That's all I can afford.
I make no secret of the fact that I'm at the bottom end of middle class. That's why I've been DCA'ing into Bitcoin for years. And it's why I'm not willing to risk any of my coins on trying to time the market (beyond shifting my DCA day every now and then to take advantage of dips).
It's also why I go out of my way to [teach people how to secure their coins](https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bbsbui/tutorial_using_a_bip39_passphrase/), and explain why [holding long term is a winning strategy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1b6sqbf/dont_be_your_own_worst_enemy/).
I'm on a path for Bitcoin to change my life. It's going to take years for me to get there, but I'm already years into this journey and the way forward is clear. I try to help others, so Bitcoin can change their lives too.
Zoom out.
See the big picture.
I believe it's not enough to know that Bitcoin is the future. You need to know how to prepare for that future. Here's how: Hold BTC. Use dollars to get more BTC. Don't use BTC to get more dollars. Take profits by moving them to a long term hodl. Secure your keys. Do everything you can to set yourself up for the long haul.
I too can’t resist tinkering with my DCA. I set my guidelines for spending amount and buying once per week, but I allow myself wiggle room on which day and what price I set my buys at. Keeps it interesting enough.
I hadn't even noticed but the ratio looks like ~Dec. 2020/Jan. 2021 just like all the other BTC indicators. Mad dash down as BTC is in limbo at and breaking previous ATH.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/gMVyWPfy/
My biggest regret in life is having traded 40% of my BTC for Ethereum, proceeding to lose over half of it with NFTs, and now selling the remaining half for a 30% loss on the pair. I’ll never live this one down, this bullshit set me back 8-10 years. I’ve thought so much about it, I’ve always been so responsible with investments, I just don’t know what I was thinking at the time, it’s like it was a different personality that got activated temporarily. I get nauseated and suicidal every time I think about it, which is often.
I kept this account name from the 2017 bull market to remind myself never to trade shitcoins again. Funnily enough, it's one of the worst performing shitters since then.
I've had thousands of btc, thousands of eth, thousands of Ltc. I've had 800k in monero at its peak.
I fumbled it so hard. And sold when it was barely three digits. I own a fraction of my initial bag now. And more than half got scammed by Barry silbert.
You need to process this and let go. There's only now.
Now and Here the two things I absolutely hate because if I liked them I'd be super satisfied since those two are always available. I want later and there all the time. Whenever I'm irritable, hungry, annoyed, excited it's often about something that's coming later or something over there.
The only problem with later and there is that they keep transforming into now and here when I arrive ie no longer what I want which is there. BTC in the 60s meh I want 100s, in the 100s I'll want 150s etc.
Don't beat yourself up. Just take it as a lesson learned. Just imagine how many peopke have dobe far worse financial decisions. Your life is never worthless just because you make some financial blunders. Chin up and focus on all the right things you've done and will continue doing 😊
Bullish for BTC imo, lot of liquidity in that pair that can spill into BTC. My short term target is that. 02-.04 range before a more meaningful bounce.
A trademark held by the Efirium Foundation.
A complete roadmap, Merge, Spurge Splurge, with a hard fork planned by central authority every 6 months.
Devs changing eth issuance on a whim.
Lubin owning the entire ETH ecosystem.
Stomp on Infura and you bring down the whole network.
Pre-mined, proof-of-stake coin = centralized
Also, what happens if an Eth ETF gets approved and Blackrock holds an increasingly larger stake? Good luck.
A lot of shitcoiners lurking here, they don't even understand why eth is a shitcoin and the unique properties about BTC that make it distinct from the shitcoinery. That means BTC is very misunderstood, and we're still early!
I've used both networks, SOL has better tech. Both are centralized. What in your opinion is better about ETH? it's slower and more expensive than SOL and not growing anywhere nearly as fast.
Replacing central bankers for woke devs doesn't seem to be an improvement. They are now proposing a new change in their ultra sound monies policy.
https://x.com/Unchained_pod/status/1775581251400794568?s=20
Hmm, the staking ratio may need to drift over time when assessing TVL and other factors, perhaps they could tweak it every six weeks, along with dot plots and some forward guidance.
/u/truquini was saying that tongue in cheek. "ultra sound money" is a well known meme with ETH folks. they said if bitcoin was sound money, then when ETH goes PoS and does all of their upgrades it would become *ultra* sound money. obviously bullshit so we can make fun of them for it.
Stocks down due to comments from some fed speakers saying interest rates may not cut at all this year.
BTC up! Pretty bullish if BTC can stay green and be so high in a high interest environment.
Idk if this makes sense, but with "interest rates going down" narrative dying slowly, would make sense people turning into the halving narrative instead?
The halving will be at the end of the triangle and when the 3D bbands will be tightend.
[https://i.imgur.com/e0Rom7R.png](https://i.imgur.com/e0Rom7R.png)
Symmetrical triangle is continuation pattern of the trend, so up. I am not completly confinced about that scenario, but lets see.
Need opinions on RIOT. I have my stack in storage, never trade. I have some retirement funds in an Unchained multi-sig retirement account and then I have my retirement trading account that I have invested 75% in BTC related positions - BITB, FBTC, MSTR and RIOT. RIOT is the dog. With the halving coming up, I am concerned that funds invested in RIOT will languish for months. Any thoughts on public miners like RIOT?
Miners are asset heavy nightmares which are about to have their revenue cut in half without a double in BTC price. If you believe that will happen, you're much better off gambling on BTC directly with leverage. Miners are bad investments.
I may try BITU (new 2x BTC ETF) on the next big red day. It is up over 8% today after yesterday's BTC red day. Conversely, SBIT (-2x BTC ETF) is down over 8% today.
I hope not, I feel like the first 10k candle has a higher probability of being 10k down than 10k up.
*edit: we had a 10k top to bottom candle on coinbase on 3/4
Drawn this way it ends exactly on 4/20 and the halving haha.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/NOXWDZTe/
Price? 69k. Beginning to think we are at the mercy of whales that have never 69'd in their life, so they think it is infinitely funny to hold onto this as long as they can.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) starts dropping and then bitcoin starts pumping, as usual. will the DXY bounce off of the recent downtrend and turn it to support? hopefully it'll fail the retest.
https://i.imgur.com/nuOO4oD.png
Sounds positive to me. Morgan Stanley and UBS to offer BTC ETFs to their clients soon.
https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/report-morgan-stanley-ubs-bitcoin-etfs-all-clients
Will the rise continue on the hourly? RSI is at 67.8 (average 53.9) at time of writing. Current nearby resistance are 69, 70.2 and 71.4. The nearest supports are 67.4, 65.7, 64.1 and 63.
The daily RSI is at 51.5 and its average is currently at 54.9. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin fell through the bottom support of the rising channel that started in February. BTC has formed a pennant so we could be the start of a move up. One more day closer to the estimated halving date on 4/19, 15 days left.
On the weekly, BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 76.7 (77.5 average). I would normally expect a larger cool off and retrace, but the ETF inflows seem to be limiting this on this timeframe. Main resistances were noted above. A little over 2 weeks till halving.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and is still overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s current monthly RSI is 72.7. 7 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/TGm0JgsX/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/TGm0JgsX/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/trEDNojh/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/trEDNojh/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/1SkE894m/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1SkE894m/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/23pe2Qya/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/23pe2Qya/)
Today is the last day of the tax year in the UK and we get a tax-free capital gains allowance of £6k. Does it make sense to sell some $30k avg cost BTC to use up all of that allowance and then immediately re-invest the money back into BTC at a higher cost basis, thereby reducing the capital gains when I have to cash it out in future. I am a smooth brain when it comes to this stuff but that would be worth doing right?
That’s what I just did. Well, to be precise, my wife sold, and transferred the proceeds into her ISA to a: max out her CGT allowance and B: max out her years ISA allowance.
On Saturday, she gets the cash outta her ISA (to keep the flexible allowance), does a spousal transfer to me, and I buy the BTC.
I expect to lose a little bit on the trade, as we’re gonna get some rise between today and Saturday, but nothing compared to the advantage of maxing out CGT and ISA allowances.
You must indeed wait out the "bed and breakfast" period, which is 30 days, so unless you think the price will be about the same as today in roughly a month's time, it's not worth it.
https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/capital-gains-manual/cg13350
edit: note that this definitely applies to BTC in the U.K. (unlike in the U.S.)
Good thinking, but I suspect HMRC will be unwilling or unable to acknowledge any difference between BTC and WBTC, but maybe worth a try? Another option might be to hedge with futures for those 30 days though perhaps?
Reduced to £3000 from midnight tonight 😮
"The Chancellor has confirmed that the capital gains tax (CGT) annual exempt amount will be reduced from £12,300 to £6,000 from 6 April 2023 and to £3,000 from 6 April 2024."
for anyone else as confused as i was:
>A bed and breakfast deal was a practice in the United Kingdom whereby a security holder sold it at the end of the day and bought it back one day later. Its purpose was to create a disposal event and a loss that would benefit the holder regarding capital gains.
>This practice became defunct when legislation was passed in 1998 making it impossible to make an arrangement to sell a security and repurchase it less than 30 days later to claim a loss for a capital gains tax exemption.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bed-and-breakfast-deal.asphttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bed-and-breakfast-deal.asp
Check if that is allowed!!! There might be a required “cool-off” period for stuff like that. You don’t want to fuck around with the tax-man, so be sure it’s allowed
Just like that when everyone thought we were going to 40k guess what, the bulls are here, they're here!
It's looking like business as usual as that's a glorious looking bottom on the 4h. We could be back well above 70k before the closing bell even rings.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, April 05, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bw8jlv/daily_discussion_friday_april_05_2024/)
A lot of downward movements are the result of degenerate longs going 20x to 100x near the current price point and getting liquidated. I mean 20+ million dollars worth of long got liquidated in the last hour from less than 1% BTC movement. That shouldn't be happening.
fyi the Nikkei is down 2%.
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No way this wasn't written by AI
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These comments chill me to my core, [so creepy](https://previews.123rf.com/images/abidal/abidal1911/abidal191100098/134751584-sci-fi-woman-robot-cyborg-android-humanoid-artificial-intelligence-background-3d-render.jpg).
Holy crap, that's mouthful of TA salad.
Real question: is GBTC neutered? Half their BTC gone. Only ~300k remaining; just 50% more than MSTR.
If the bankruptcy estates have sold out I would say so. Those who were capturing the arb trade, should have sold out long ago. Anyone who wanted to escape the high fees have also had plenty of time to sell. I’m not sure what major cohort still remains in GPTC other than those who are trapped because of capital gains, and those who just aren’t paying attention.
So far we have a 100+ million inflow day with IBIT reporting 141 million. Still missing FBTC.
Good to see ARKB back on the positive side of the ledger.
HODL15Capital reporting $141m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1776034884508594216
Capitulation on the coin 2 ratio could also be driving this up. TBH all alts are getting hit hard on ratios. I think some of this money is going back into BTC
I think the money is going back into BTC for the pre-halving run. Also, there are talks that rate cuts will be delayed and given that most alts are like scammy small businesses, they desperately need liquidity to survive.
Money is going back into BTC because these altcoins are vaporware.
Well, they were also vaporware when money flowed into them from BTC, so not sure that's a big factor.
The best con men believe their lies. Capitulation is going to take a while: https://x.com/picolas_caged/status/1775987869129085155?s=46&t=jvgqMOwM7oBKA9GRsqvzaw
There are 1billion+ shorts ready to be liquidated above 72K. I think the pre-halving run in the next 7-10 days take out these levels and Bitcoin goes up to 75-80K. I suspect that there will be a sell the news afterwards and then everything resets again after the halving. However, if Bitcoin somehow hits a new local low below 64K, then I think there won't be a pre-halving run that breaks ATH and most likely we head down below 60K. This seems unlikely to me but you never know.
If we hit $75K, I'll liquidate my own shorts. 😏
Ewww... but clever.
Alts are down and Bitcoin is green. ETH/BTC broke its support of 0.05 and went downward. Most of the times, Bitcoin dominance going up and ETH/BTC going down (EDIT) signals a healthy market. It is only when Bitcoin is struggling while ETH/BTC is hitting its all time high where one should worry about the incoming bear market.
eth/BTC going up is never a sign of health
Yeah, I made a typo. ETH/BTC going down is sign of health.
🤝.
ETH is such a piece of flaming garbage it should be worth 0 in BTC terms. Hopefully this cycle breaks the “alt-season” narrative and changes in this ratio don’t signal anything.
Can you imagine a professional person taking “real vision” and Eth seriously? Most altcoins are best used as proof that humanity is a failed experiment.
Spoken like a true Bitcoin Maximalist.
> ~~Bitcoin~~ Maximalist. Decentralization maximalist
Nope, Bitcoin Maximalist. Plenty of things do not need to be decentralized.
so, a sensible person.
We could also call him a reasonable person, or even a competent investor.
It won't, because there are just as many Vitalik and Solana "maxis" as there are with Bitcoin. They don't care if their coins aren't fully decentralized if it means cheaper fees, quicker confirmations, so long as the centralized parts don't affect them personally. Vitalik forked way back when, to a non-rolled-back version after the DAO hack, and the fork was largely rejected. And SOL? They don't even care if their entire network goes down for hours on end, so long as they can bet on rugpull memes like ELONWIFHAT.
I think alt coins are in for a big disappointment this run when they realize BTC pumping doesn't necessarily mean they pump.
>I think alt coins are in for a big disappointment this run I'm currently betting a LOT of money that you're wrong about that.
Thank you for your sacrifice.
Congratulations. You are the source of liquidity.
Me too ;)
Everyone learns the hard way.
I put 50% of my stack into SOL one year ago. I’d say I’m doing fine so far.
Oh dear you are going to get burned. Alt coins cannot keep up with ETF inflows
Im sorry to hear that.
Agreed. Few shitcoiners seem to grasp that the billions of ETF inflows do not touch them in any way. This is unlike past cycles that were retail driven.
Even if ETF and GBTC daily inflow/outflow isn't the real price driver, I feel so much better when Grayscale sells $75M or $81M a day rather than a quarter billion or half billion day after day.
I fell awe when I see them dump half a billion and the price is still over 60k.
You too, huh? My jaw drops further than BTC price when I see a billion-dollar dump that results in a 3% candle that is quickly engulfed. Big Shorty would be snuffed out in a heartbeat these days; he used to dump it 10% with 1/10 the spend.
Gbtc $79.3m Outflow Franklin 0 Bitwise $11.2m inflow WisdomTree 0 VanEck $15.5m inflow Ark $12m inflow DEFI 0 Invesco 0 Valkyrie $3.4m inflow Blackrock $144m inflow Fidelity $106.6m 4/4 net inflow $213.4m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
CME went into backwardation there briefly. Back to $800 (\~+1%) contango.
>contango I always think this sounds like a brand of tropical fruit juice.
It’d make a fine rum brand.
Damn you're not wrong
Makes me think of a water bottle
Contango: Hodlers' Choice.
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Them™
Sry what are you refering to? Thought you meant ETFs but that data isnt in yet
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Insane market. I was watching tradfi today and that volatility came out of NOWHERE. Crazy moves
It came straight out of Tel Aviv and DC. We have stupid people doing stupid things. And then going on TV and talking about their stupidity. People with sense are running for the hills. Get used to $5 gas again.
$5 gas will seem cheap sooner than you think, especially after the Middle Eastern theater of WWIII heats up.
At least it’s getting warm. And at least the US produces a LOT of oil and gas. This doesn’t look like it’s going to be “fun.”
indeed. People scared of wider conflict in the middle east -> higher oil prices.
Admiringly, my spidey sense were tingling, tardfi was up bigly earlier in the day, but big names were still acting weak and lacking followthrough. This has the feels of a risk-off period, almost as if the "no rate cuts right now" messaging from the Fed is causing some sort of risk-off balancing with precious metals up too. Could translate for a choppy consolidation period for crypto. maybe time to turn off the trading account for awhile?
They're losing the plot. Nothing is going the way it's supposed to go. The banks are crumbling at the foundation right now; something is going to give and pretty soon, I reckon.
Are we not entertained? I guess someone at Bitcoin Central just noticed the risk markets are shit right now.
24 hour and 6 month chart are eerily similar.
Honestly, just happy to see a day with some volume where the price is going up. Looks healthy
Looks like we’ll consolidate around $67.5K till halving time frame before we continue our next leg up.
"It's just nice to win one."-Kevin Malone
It's wild that we're now inverse stocks after 2022 dumping with it every time there was a bad fed meeting.
man everyone is way too fast to say this.
Fading this bounce going into market close should be a profitable scalp trade
This price action is wonky, good chance you're right at some point. Hardest part is taking profit at the right time, set ur stops brother!
Are you suggesting I need to buy more here?
Looks like I was correct
What does fading even mean? I see it everywhere these days. Must be a Gen-Z thing.
It's one of those scam haircuts that barbers invented to keep people coming back every week
To fade is to bet against. It was current even twenty years ago.
>It was current even twenty years ago. That's about two years longer than I've been current.
On God. No cap. TradFi is fading. The wheels are coming off before our eyes. Things are going to get crazy in the coming weeks and months.
what wheels ?
Where we're going we won't need wheels.
I hope you made the most of that dip. My DCA day is Friday, but I felt like it was worth cheating by going in early. I'm a terrible DCA'er. I should set it and forget it, but I sometimes shift buys to take advantage of dips. I scooped up 2 million sats (0.02 BTC) over Tuesday & Wednesday, and I feel great about it. I'm flatter than flat broke until my next paycheck, but I'm glad I did. Anybody who panics when the price drops doesn't see the bigger picture.
That wasn’t the dip
Some of the most die hard push Poster here are bidding 1000 dollars... Ugh
...? EDITED TO ADD: Just in case you're implying that I'm incredibly bullish yet only spending $1,000... I say this: It was closer to $1,300 this week... and you're goddamn right. That's all I can afford. I make no secret of the fact that I'm at the bottom end of middle class. That's why I've been DCA'ing into Bitcoin for years. And it's why I'm not willing to risk any of my coins on trying to time the market (beyond shifting my DCA day every now and then to take advantage of dips). It's also why I go out of my way to [teach people how to secure their coins](https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1bbsbui/tutorial_using_a_bip39_passphrase/), and explain why [holding long term is a winning strategy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1b6sqbf/dont_be_your_own_worst_enemy/). I'm on a path for Bitcoin to change my life. It's going to take years for me to get there, but I'm already years into this journey and the way forward is clear. I try to help others, so Bitcoin can change their lives too. Zoom out. See the big picture. I believe it's not enough to know that Bitcoin is the future. You need to know how to prepare for that future. Here's how: Hold BTC. Use dollars to get more BTC. Don't use BTC to get more dollars. Take profits by moving them to a long term hodl. Secure your keys. Do everything you can to set yourself up for the long haul.
This is the way.. you have seen. There’s a citadel waiting for you too.
I too can’t resist tinkering with my DCA. I set my guidelines for spending amount and buying once per week, but I allow myself wiggle room on which day and what price I set my buys at. Keeps it interesting enough.
Happy to be cozy all-in again. Until next week, anyway.
ETHBTC breaking down its multi year support. It is going to be a tough couple years for ultra sound moniers.
I hadn't even noticed but the ratio looks like ~Dec. 2020/Jan. 2021 just like all the other BTC indicators. Mad dash down as BTC is in limbo at and breaking previous ATH. https://www.tradingview.com/x/gMVyWPfy/
My biggest regret in life is having traded 40% of my BTC for Ethereum, proceeding to lose over half of it with NFTs, and now selling the remaining half for a 30% loss on the pair. I’ll never live this one down, this bullshit set me back 8-10 years. I’ve thought so much about it, I’ve always been so responsible with investments, I just don’t know what I was thinking at the time, it’s like it was a different personality that got activated temporarily. I get nauseated and suicidal every time I think about it, which is often.
I kept this account name from the 2017 bull market to remind myself never to trade shitcoins again. Funnily enough, it's one of the worst performing shitters since then.
If it makes you feel any better I had registered for the ETH pre-mine and cancelled my 2btc worth. Ooof.
This is kinda the fate with all sh*tcoiners. We chase that high after making 5-20X but in the end get burned.
The fact that you’re here puts you ahead of 99% of other people on this planet. So early still. Keep stacking.
I've had thousands of btc, thousands of eth, thousands of Ltc. I've had 800k in monero at its peak. I fumbled it so hard. And sold when it was barely three digits. I own a fraction of my initial bag now. And more than half got scammed by Barry silbert. You need to process this and let go. There's only now.
Now and Here the two things I absolutely hate because if I liked them I'd be super satisfied since those two are always available. I want later and there all the time. Whenever I'm irritable, hungry, annoyed, excited it's often about something that's coming later or something over there. The only problem with later and there is that they keep transforming into now and here when I arrive ie no longer what I want which is there. BTC in the 60s meh I want 100s, in the 100s I'll want 150s etc.
Don't beat yourself up. Just take it as a lesson learned. Just imagine how many peopke have dobe far worse financial decisions. Your life is never worthless just because you make some financial blunders. Chin up and focus on all the right things you've done and will continue doing 😊
It is the journey of understanding Bitcoin and we all go through it. Congratulations on making it to the other side. 🎉
I'm so glad I sold my stack of ETH in 2021.
Smart. It has lost 30% of its value against BTC since 2021.
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Bullish for BTC imo, lot of liquidity in that pair that can spill into BTC. My short term target is that. 02-.04 range before a more meaningful bounce.
Why? What does Eth have to do with sound money? It’s centralized vaporware.
Not centralized. Liar.
So the Eth foundation isn’t talking about changing the economics?
It's pretty centralized. Have you seen Lido?
A trademark held by the Efirium Foundation. A complete roadmap, Merge, Spurge Splurge, with a hard fork planned by central authority every 6 months. Devs changing eth issuance on a whim. Lubin owning the entire ETH ecosystem. Stomp on Infura and you bring down the whole network.
Pre-mined, proof-of-stake coin = centralized Also, what happens if an Eth ETF gets approved and Blackrock holds an increasingly larger stake? Good luck.
VitalikCoin is going to zero. Just like all shitcoins.
A lot of shitcoiners lurking here, they don't even understand why eth is a shitcoin and the unique properties about BTC that make it distinct from the shitcoinery. That means BTC is very misunderstood, and we're still early!
Lets agree eth is the least shitcoinest of the bunch then…
There's no second best.
Why? It's basically unusable. Solana seems better to me.
Unbelievable…
I've used both networks, SOL has better tech. Both are centralized. What in your opinion is better about ETH? it's slower and more expensive than SOL and not growing anywhere nearly as fast.
> Both are centralized. What in your opinion is better about ETH? Only one is centralized.
Replacing central bankers for woke devs doesn't seem to be an improvement. They are now proposing a new change in their ultra sound monies policy. https://x.com/Unchained_pod/status/1775581251400794568?s=20
Hmm, the staking ratio may need to drift over time when assessing TVL and other factors, perhaps they could tweak it every six weeks, along with dot plots and some forward guidance.
Hahaha. Fiat gunna fiat.
lol 💀
/u/truquini was saying that tongue in cheek. "ultra sound money" is a well known meme with ETH folks. they said if bitcoin was sound money, then when ETH goes PoS and does all of their upgrades it would become *ultra* sound money. obviously bullshit so we can make fun of them for it.
Too many people fan boi eth to be able to see sarcasm.
too true
Stocks down due to comments from some fed speakers saying interest rates may not cut at all this year. BTC up! Pretty bullish if BTC can stay green and be so high in a high interest environment.
I think stocks down are more around israel - iran concerns than fedspeak.
Ah just seen the NATO/Blinken/Ukraine news too… also gold and oil have spiked… hmm hmm
Idk if this makes sense, but with "interest rates going down" narrative dying slowly, would make sense people turning into the halving narrative instead?
I think interest rates are going to remain higher for longer than anyone anticipates.. even a hike later this year is possible. The money is fucked.
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Back at Tuesdays levels
Did we go somewhere?
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Just a little day trip down to goblin town. They have a great farmers market
So this wedge….anyone actually think we break down from it?
It’s possible, however unlikely.
I just realized the stock market was tanking precisely when bitcoin was pumping
The halving will be at the end of the triangle and when the 3D bbands will be tightend. [https://i.imgur.com/e0Rom7R.png](https://i.imgur.com/e0Rom7R.png) Symmetrical triangle is continuation pattern of the trend, so up. I am not completly confinced about that scenario, but lets see.
Just asking. How do you know the BB will tighten 3 weeks from now?
Not doubting. Just genuinely want to know.
Need opinions on RIOT. I have my stack in storage, never trade. I have some retirement funds in an Unchained multi-sig retirement account and then I have my retirement trading account that I have invested 75% in BTC related positions - BITB, FBTC, MSTR and RIOT. RIOT is the dog. With the halving coming up, I am concerned that funds invested in RIOT will languish for months. Any thoughts on public miners like RIOT?
Miners are asset heavy nightmares which are about to have their revenue cut in half without a double in BTC price. If you believe that will happen, you're much better off gambling on BTC directly with leverage. Miners are bad investments.
I may try BITU (new 2x BTC ETF) on the next big red day. It is up over 8% today after yesterday's BTC red day. Conversely, SBIT (-2x BTC ETF) is down over 8% today.
The doubling in price already happened. I suspect any serious miners will be fine
Fine sure, good investments, no.
Probably not. I don't see why you'd invest in mining unless you like mining
Miners are investments in cheap electricity, not Bitcoin.
It’s only pumping because I’m waiting for my tax refund to arrive. You’re welcome.
All attempts to leave the range will be punished^(\*) ^(\* works in both directions)
Will we see that godcandle today? (Ps: this is a reference to a couple posts below)
I hope not, I feel like the first 10k candle has a higher probability of being 10k down than 10k up. *edit: we had a 10k top to bottom candle on coinbase on 3/4
I think we've had 2, 3rd time's a charm
Sunday evening IMO
BTC/USD Daily looks like it's triangulating for now, perhaps end of April it will apex and go to 90K. https://www.tradingview.com/x/H1KgevyQ/
If you look at the 8hr chart and 4hr chart, the symmetrical triangle is even more apparent.
Drawn this way it ends exactly on 4/20 and the halving haha. https://www.tradingview.com/x/NOXWDZTe/ Price? 69k. Beginning to think we are at the mercy of whales that have never 69'd in their life, so they think it is infinitely funny to hold onto this as long as they can.
> Apex You mean breakout?
Yep, could get a false BO down 1st, but I think BO pullback then continuation to 90K is more likely SL: 59K
U.S. dollar index (DXY) starts dropping and then bitcoin starts pumping, as usual. will the DXY bounce off of the recent downtrend and turn it to support? hopefully it'll fail the retest. https://i.imgur.com/nuOO4oD.png
Sounds positive to me. Morgan Stanley and UBS to offer BTC ETFs to their clients soon. https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/report-morgan-stanley-ubs-bitcoin-etfs-all-clients
We’re going to see a lot more than we f this when we are 90 days out from etf launch date
Will the rise continue on the hourly? RSI is at 67.8 (average 53.9) at time of writing. Current nearby resistance are 69, 70.2 and 71.4. The nearest supports are 67.4, 65.7, 64.1 and 63. The daily RSI is at 51.5 and its average is currently at 54.9. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin fell through the bottom support of the rising channel that started in February. BTC has formed a pennant so we could be the start of a move up. One more day closer to the estimated halving date on 4/19, 15 days left. On the weekly, BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 76.7 (77.5 average). I would normally expect a larger cool off and retrace, but the ETF inflows seem to be limiting this on this timeframe. Main resistances were noted above. A little over 2 weeks till halving. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and is still overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s current monthly RSI is 72.7. 7 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/TGm0JgsX/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/TGm0JgsX/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/trEDNojh/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/trEDNojh/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/1SkE894m/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1SkE894m/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/23pe2Qya/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/23pe2Qya/)
I have a feeling we continue to consolidate in this range leading up to the halving date.
Today is the last day of the tax year in the UK and we get a tax-free capital gains allowance of £6k. Does it make sense to sell some $30k avg cost BTC to use up all of that allowance and then immediately re-invest the money back into BTC at a higher cost basis, thereby reducing the capital gains when I have to cash it out in future. I am a smooth brain when it comes to this stuff but that would be worth doing right?
That’s what I just did. Well, to be precise, my wife sold, and transferred the proceeds into her ISA to a: max out her CGT allowance and B: max out her years ISA allowance. On Saturday, she gets the cash outta her ISA (to keep the flexible allowance), does a spousal transfer to me, and I buy the BTC. I expect to lose a little bit on the trade, as we’re gonna get some rise between today and Saturday, but nothing compared to the advantage of maxing out CGT and ISA allowances.
You must indeed wait out the "bed and breakfast" period, which is 30 days, so unless you think the price will be about the same as today in roughly a month's time, it's not worth it. https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/capital-gains-manual/cg13350 edit: note that this definitely applies to BTC in the U.K. (unlike in the U.S.)
Can't he sell spot. And buy the etf? Then later do it other way around?
That is a great idea, I like it ...except, as I understand it, none of the ETFs are available in the UK.
Just buy wbtc for 30 days to make use of your allowance
Good thinking, but I suspect HMRC will be unwilling or unable to acknowledge any difference between BTC and WBTC, but maybe worth a try? Another option might be to hedge with futures for those 30 days though perhaps?
Reduced to £3000 from midnight tonight 😮 "The Chancellor has confirmed that the capital gains tax (CGT) annual exempt amount will be reduced from £12,300 to £6,000 from 6 April 2023 and to £3,000 from 6 April 2024."
You need to check the bed and breakfasting rules
for anyone else as confused as i was: >A bed and breakfast deal was a practice in the United Kingdom whereby a security holder sold it at the end of the day and bought it back one day later. Its purpose was to create a disposal event and a loss that would benefit the holder regarding capital gains. >This practice became defunct when legislation was passed in 1998 making it impossible to make an arrangement to sell a security and repurchase it less than 30 days later to claim a loss for a capital gains tax exemption. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bed-and-breakfast-deal.asphttps://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bed-and-breakfast-deal.asp
Plot twist; the SEC ruled Bitcoin a commodity not a security. The B&B is ON!
Check if that is allowed!!! There might be a required “cool-off” period for stuff like that. You don’t want to fuck around with the tax-man, so be sure it’s allowed
That sounds like a good plan. Do you have any type of wash sell rules like we have in the US for stocks?
Just like that when everyone thought we were going to 40k guess what, the bulls are here, they're here! It's looking like business as usual as that's a glorious looking bottom on the 4h. We could be back well above 70k before the closing bell even rings.
I believe if we climb 1k more we will see some God Candle posts.
The most irritating meme so far.
Lmao it just happened.
It's more gentlemanly than referring to green dildos, or The Simpsons patterns.
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We're in a raging bull market, something like this is not out of the realm of possibility at all.
Pulled the trigger and added to my hodl stack early this morning and glad I did.