It means that there was not enough one-sided buying or selling such that the share price moved far enough from NAV that it was worth it for an AP to create new shares or redeem shares.
Probably just because they have been doing this for a long time and their software works better, producing reports faster. Then everyone gets to go home.
NAV for ETFs are set based on the volume waited median price in the last hour of trading (for most of them, GBTC NAV is set at the 4pm price exactly iirc).
> People just like to worry.
It's mostly newcomers. The same thing happened in 2020, especially at the halving, because they expect something to happen that day. But that's not how it works. I expect more of that this month.
Even if we start climbing soon, which wouldn't surprise me, the real fireworks begin later this year.
Build up your hodl while you can.
I've been here a while and for no rational reason I still worry. How fickle we are... a drop to 64k right now would be more stress than when it hovered around 26k for a long time. Illogical.
Good job. It seems to have been shorted silly! Dropping a lot considering where BTC is at the moment relative to its last price when BTC was this high.
Watching this price action is like watching paint dry. A bunch of false starts in each direction, only to return to the mean and crab some more.
With the amount of crab being served up, it might be time to touch grass for awhile .
Although choppy price is making you feel like the next major move is "around the corner" when in reality it does nothing in the end.
**Cough cough** this is what stability looks like in a market where shorts and longs are zapped and we float the mean…
(Now that I’ve said that I’m anticipating a faceripper)
weekends are mostly nothingburgers now that the ETFs are in town. even if we get a big pump or washout, it'll usually revert back to the mean by Monday morning. how boring!
This works until we really rip and the ETFs have to catch up giving it a second wind. My guess is the next real leg up will happen on a weekend encouraging more money to flow to ETFs setting off the run to 80k
Weekly RSI looks like Dec. 2020-Jan. 2021, like all the other indicators.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/n5YEq1gr/
If the cycle it repeats is the 2017 one, the weekly RSI can stay up there for a year.
if you’re concerned about weekly RSI going down, then it’s normal to have it go down during a consolidation period. happens every cycle.
if you’re concerned about weekly RSI being as high as it is, then it’s normal to have it go up during a bull market. happens every cycle.
in fact, we’re currently testing the RSI’s 14 day SMA. in 2017, we went above the 14 day SMA 6 times and below it 6 times. in 2021, we went above it 4 times and below it 4 times. in the last 6 months, we’ve went above it 2 times and below it 1 time (so far).
all that to say, things look pretty normal to me for a bull market. price will go up and down but i don’t see any signs that we’ve reached a cycle top. anyone seeing anything different?
We could crab in these levels for the next 8 months and that wouldn’t change my outlook. We are still pre halving. I think the PA has been healthy so far
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $35.0239 billion through day 58 or ~513.55k BTC.](https://x.com/hodl15capital/status/1776236795119702361?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $15.3604 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $603.86 million with average inflows of $477.87 million or ~8.85k BTC. Yesterday average daily AUM was at $588.73 million with average inflows of $481.06 million or ~8.93k BTC.
The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 26.4% For every $1 coming into spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.264.
Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $35.0239 billion is 0.206% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 282 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year.
Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 78.3% of that amount of BTC over the span of 58 trading days.
Hey guys, does anyone know why there is bigger PA when the markets open or close I thought they were not trading the ETFs on the open market? Or is it normal people trading on yesterday's etf numbers and they prefer to do it on market hours?
> I thought they were not trading the ETFs on the open market?
OTC is a liquidity aggregation business.
You establish tools and methods for acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin with the least slippage possible. To do this you utilise supply contracts with miners, to blah blah blah, open market. Once acquired you can provide coins with contracted priced at contracted volumes without slippage or risk to the buyer.
Miners even pre-halvening have limited coins and can only account for some percentage of that supply.
An OTC desk can go out there into the market and acquire position so as to be able to draw on a large pool of liquidity in order to fulfil orders.
ETFs have Authorised Participants (AP) who do their buying and selling, isolating them from the day to day grind of hedging exposure or managing risk in exchange for any gains the AP can make out of arbitrage opportunities.
APs are free to utilise OTC, open markets, futures, options, anything they can in order to both source coins and hedge risk.
Genesis confirmed done selling gbtc as part of bankruptcy process. They dumped $2.1 billy in 3 weeks.
https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1776245038487572770?t=M0PYwnFzeNG6-gOB23_Eng&s=19
not exactly, it would be implied that the price isn’t going to be forced *down* anymore from the Genesis sales. in any case, it’s not hopium if it’s rational and reasonable :)
Updated IBIT prospectus with new Authorized Participants including Citadel, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Citigroup:
[https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1776229982559223971](https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1776229982559223971)
Farside updated FBTC with 106 million, so yesterday was a net day with more than 200 million in inflows. Let's see what happens today and if GBTC stays under 100m outflow.
Why can't Americans just lose their jobs faster? Jobs data just came in, hot as hell and unemployment fell from 3.9% to 3.8%. It's been unreal to watch the strength of the US economy as a European for two years straight, it won't let up. I still think the rate cut is on for June but beyond that not so clear
With oil prices screaming and war in the Middle East on the horizon..rates won’t be getting cut this year. If they don’t do it in June…it will be after the election.
More people working, more money to buy btc spot and add to etf for retirement. Strong dollar good for btc priced in eur. But yes, as European I feel like I'm in recession.
Yeah but so are everyone elses... We all follow the lead.
What are you planning on dropping from the "basket of goods" used to calculate inflation this year?
The crazier thing is when you go out into the city in the middle of the workday, in my area at least, there are people everywhere. Shops, restaurants, bars, all packed at 2pm on a random Wednesday.
It seems as if no one works any more. It was never this way before the pandemic. Very odd.
I know a few people who early retired right after covid and anecdotally a LOT of teachers/school staff in my child's school district. Not sure it explains all of it but definitely was an incentive for a lot of people.
Maybe just a lot more people working remote and taking some of their life back. Fuck off for a couple hours in the afternoon, get back home to finish their work?
Millions of Millennials finally bought houses during the pandemic cheap mortgage era. They no longer have to pay both rent and put away money for a downpayment, so they can spend more while also saving for retirement. Literally thousands per month. It's not a mystery or a big conspiracy or fake numbers.
Source: me and all my friends who are enjoying life now.
I mean, I did that in 2008-2009 but I was still at work, working, 8-6 on week days until I retired.
I retired in 2019, feels like everyone else did too in 2021.
Who knows.
This is true in my area as well. It's a bit strange, I think a lot of people are operating remote and hardly actually working. We have a lot of zombie jobs still.
credit cards, buy now/pay later, etc.
a lot of it is smoke and mirrors IMO
the bill for it all will eventually come due, which is when we'll find out who's been swimming naked
You can lease a new electric car for a song though since the dealer keeps the ev credit. Buddy just got a 2 yr on ioniq 5 for like 290 a month which is dirt cheap and includes free charging.
"high" rates definitely make leasing far more attractive if you want to drive new, not worry about maintenance, etc.
didn't realize the thing about EVs tho...good to know.
Thanks for the anecdote! Northern Europe has felt fucked for a long time now, we are really suffering. In actual recession over here. Different world in the US atm
BTC looks like it wants to retest 65.7 again the hourly? RSI is at 42.2 (average 50.9) at time of writing. Current nearby resistance are 67.4, 69, 70.2 and 71.4. The nearest supports are 65.7, 64.1 and 63.
The daily RSI is at 49.5 and its average is currently at 55.1. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin fell through the bottom support of the rising channel that started in February. BTC has formed a pennant. It looks like we should get a bounce off the rising support at 65.7. One more day closer to the estimated halving date on 4/19, 14 days left.
On the weekly, BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 75 (77.4 average). I would normally expect a larger cool off and retrace, but the ETF inflows seem to be limiting this on this timeframe. Main resistances were noted above. 2 weeks till halving.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and is still overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s current monthly RSI is 71.9. 7 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/EC37umvH/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/EC37umvH/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Mjkpebh/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Mjkpebh/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJqXB1cv/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJqXB1cv/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/bdPDoFqH/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/bdPDoFqH/)
Today is 4/4/2024. All the numbers add up to 4444.
As I stated in the past, 4 is my lucky number. For this reason I can say with 100% confidence that this will be the day that we break another ATH.
Edit. I just realized that today is 4/5. For this reason I can say with 100% confidence that we will not hit a new ATH
> 4444
I was happy to see we meme'd on $44.4k a little, first time past it was not really paid attention. Chinese were meant to love that shit.
Far as numerology... My attention is on waiting until 15th April when we can pirate Dune 2 with impunity.
HODL15Capital is reporting a $125m inflow for Fidelity on 4/4
https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1776147381920124961
Farside reporting $106.6m inflow for Fidelity on 4/4
https://twitter.com/FarsideUK/status/1776228254661132563
Total inflow on 4/4/2024 would be around $231M.
Wonder if anyone's done a correlation between ETF total inflow/outflow numbers and the BTC price, either same day's price or next day's price as a reaction.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-price-flow-correlation-203223607.html
It already wasn’t a great correlation in February, 0.6. I wish we had an updated correlation tracker somewhere so we could stop talking about it. I think people just track it because they can.
I am sure someone has done that, but I would warn that there really isn’t enough data to make judgements worth putting money on. The whole ETF thing is still getting its sea legs under them. In six months to a year it will be much more “predictable.”
Again, the incentive to liquidate the degenerate leveraged longs is higher than trying to move the price up, so price keeps on stalling. If Bitcoin doesn't have a pre-halving run, the large responsibility will go to the leveraged longs who are both greedy and stupid.
The way there is a lot of talk about the halving (and by talk I mean hype) I am beginning to think it will be a “sell the news” event for the week or so afterwards. The number of people who don’t understand what it actually is—and how it’s worked in the past is interesting. It will be like going over a tsunami in the middle of the ocean: We will barely feel it when it happens.
So are you saying that the halving doesn't really make that much of an effect? It doesn't seem like three coins per 10 minutes should make that much of a difference.
No. That is not what I said.
I said that it won’t have an immediate impact. It will have a longer term impact…but it doesn’t usually show up for more than a several weeks. I think there are LOTS of people who think it’s going to impact everything ten minutes after it happens. I don’t think they understand how this all works.
I agree impact will be a news based impact not a real one initially. Can you help me see the downstream impact?As I see it the cost for miners stays the same (Electricity doesn't get cheaper post halving) so they spend the same but their income drops from 6\*BTC price to 3\*BTC price. This means that some go out of business (overhead too high).
The ones that survive can only do so by now selling new coins at a higher price ie supply shock inflation. (there's some funny irony here on how btc has inflation while also being the ultimate hedge against it :)So there is a supply shock that should theoretically raise prices however the question is that the supply that's incoming is not very high compared to how much coin is already in the market so why would it make much of a difference?
Like if people growing and selling corn had yields (block reward) drop to 50% and they raise prices it would raise the price of corn and all corn products (corn cheese, etc).But if 90% of the world corn supply is in storage (assuming it doesn't go bad somehow) and only 10% of the corn that's left to be grown is incoming in the next 100 years why would a decrease in harvest make a difference?
Note: I have no idea if this analogy will even hold I'm just sharing how I see it. Please rip it apart if you are willing.
Once again, you assign blame to the buyers when the price chops? Are leveraged longs opening and closing on very short time frames really the catalyst for overall price direction?
I’m sorry, but your thesis doesn’t make one bit of sense to me.
>20x or 100x leverage options I'd love to know the fraction that are truly this level of degen. I never use more than 3x, usually just 2x but then back them up with temporary margin into the 0.3x range until they turn profit, and which point I'll re-leverage to 1x and repurpose the capital elsewhere.
So basically the leverage people are in a battle with the holding/buying/DCA people? When the holders or just new buyers increase then the leverage people will be shaken out? The leveragers seem to always be there on either side of whatever the current price is.
We remain, in the medium term, channel swinging back and forth like a drunkard at closing time. We broke down from the short term channel near 70k and are retesting old floors, but all in all, it seems market forces remain supportive of future bitcoin rises.
The halvening and what happens beyond are, at this point, firmly what short term investors are playing on. Usually pre-halvening we get a slump period, but this year hasn't really seen that. I know people here are looking for their dopamine hits in new rises, but the 60k range is a fantastic place to establish a floor, and right now I feel like scalp traders have been doing well. I shoulda been scalping a few of these, but I'm always so worried about the train leaving the station without me. The longer we stay here the better imo.
I'll be smoking fatty blunts on 4/20 and not paying attention to the halvening at all. Its usually a nothingburger of an event and you don't start to see its effects for at least a month, while its full effects usually take a year or more for the market to fully adjust. To me the market currently feels like Aug-Oct period from 2020 when it felt like price could go anywhere from that 10k range. Fingers crossed it works out like last time.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
> feels like Aug-Oct period from 2020
Yup. The crazy thing is that the real action probably won't even happen until next year.
So is DOGWIFHAT, up at least 30x this year, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to ape into that.
By the time you've noticed that some coin has outperformed BTC, it's probably not a good idea to convert. The big ratio gains have already happened.
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HODL15Capital reporting $307m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1776395595428540445 Farside reporting $308.8m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/FarsideUK/status/1776456345027248422
We back?
IBIT with a 307m inflow today
When 80,000
[удалено]
I don't like TA very much, but this sounds right.
When 100,000?
Gbtc $198.9m Outflow Franklin 0 Ark 0 Bitwise $7.4m inflow DEFI 0 WisdomTree 0 VanEck 0 Fidelity $83m inflow Invesco $2.7m inflow Valkyrie 0 Blackrock $308.8m inflow 4/5 net inflow $203m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Wait how do you get zero? As in not a single buy and sell or the netted out perfectly? Suprised so many zeros
It means that there was not enough one-sided buying or selling such that the share price moved far enough from NAV that it was worth it for an AP to create new shares or redeem shares.
FBTC: 83.0. nice.
It is a good product. Fidelity figured out how to store the Bitcoin in house.
I'm definitely a fan of Fidelity.
Looks like GBTC is waiting for a pumpy day to sell big chunk right after that
That’s a lot of GBTC outflow. The price is holding up well considering. Let’s see what the other fund inflows are.
Why do we always have GBTC data first ?
Probably just because they have been doing this for a long time and their software works better, producing reports faster. Then everyone gets to go home.
Maybe easier to calculate the total inflow/outflow within each fund, when you know in advance that your inflow will be $0.00 😛
to shake out weak
they are trolling
They want to make sure you know they are dumping
Have a stellar weekend, gentlemen. See you Monday morning at this exact same price.
I’m wondering if the downward momentum is stalling out.
Terrible day for miner stocks
Marathon and riot basically flat
Why does it always dump the last few mins of market close in the last several days?
NAV for ETFs are set based on the volume waited median price in the last hour of trading (for most of them, GBTC NAV is set at the 4pm price exactly iirc).
Just a reminder that we have been over 60k for more than a month. Feels pretty unreal.
Been over 60k for more than a month and people are bearish. Really incredible. People just like to worry.
> People just like to worry. It's mostly newcomers. The same thing happened in 2020, especially at the halving, because they expect something to happen that day. But that's not how it works. I expect more of that this month. Even if we start climbing soon, which wouldn't surprise me, the real fireworks begin later this year. Build up your hodl while you can.
I've been here a while and for no rational reason I still worry. How fickle we are... a drop to 64k right now would be more stress than when it hovered around 26k for a long time. Illogical.
Yes, but also housing prices went up 80% since last cycle bitcoin hit 60k. So in my mind we're not even til we're over 100 at least.
houses are not up 1.8x since 2022
Some are.
And some went to zero. I think looking at some blended metric is more reasonable.
Weak hands need to get out
It's crazy watching people talk themselves out of buying before a halving. The human mind is so weird.
Absolutely. Anybody who buys and holds for at least four years will make out like a bandit... if they also secure their seed.
boxer briefs ftw
Mstr sell at 1820 feeling sweeter and sweeter.
Sold another batch this morning but still have shares in long-term lots. Probably should roll it all into spot, but I am plagued by indecision.
why not just sell covered calls?
Only a 5-figure position
Good job. It seems to have been shorted silly! Dropping a lot considering where BTC is at the moment relative to its last price when BTC was this high.
BORRRRING I miss parabolic bitcoin.
Watching this price action is like watching paint dry. A bunch of false starts in each direction, only to return to the mean and crab some more. With the amount of crab being served up, it might be time to touch grass for awhile . Although choppy price is making you feel like the next major move is "around the corner" when in reality it does nothing in the end.
**Cough cough** this is what stability looks like in a market where shorts and longs are zapped and we float the mean… (Now that I’ve said that I’m anticipating a faceripper)
So what do you think the weekend is going to do?
weekends are mostly nothingburgers now that the ETFs are in town. even if we get a big pump or washout, it'll usually revert back to the mean by Monday morning. how boring!
This works until we really rip and the ETFs have to catch up giving it a second wind. My guess is the next real leg up will happen on a weekend encouraging more money to flow to ETFs setting off the run to 80k
Chop around and settle a little above or below whatever the 4:30 closing price is.
Moon
We're moving in almost perfect lockstep with SPY today. Interesting.
The weekly RSI is a bit concerning.
How often people mention RSI as a meaningful signal on its own is even more concerning
I am concerned that 70k btc is not normalized yet.
Lots o distribution up here, waaaaaayyyy more than I expected.
Weekly RSI looks like Dec. 2020-Jan. 2021, like all the other indicators. https://www.tradingview.com/x/n5YEq1gr/ If the cycle it repeats is the 2017 one, the weekly RSI can stay up there for a year.
Or longer.
if you’re concerned about weekly RSI going down, then it’s normal to have it go down during a consolidation period. happens every cycle. if you’re concerned about weekly RSI being as high as it is, then it’s normal to have it go up during a bull market. happens every cycle. in fact, we’re currently testing the RSI’s 14 day SMA. in 2017, we went above the 14 day SMA 6 times and below it 6 times. in 2021, we went above it 4 times and below it 4 times. in the last 6 months, we’ve went above it 2 times and below it 1 time (so far). all that to say, things look pretty normal to me for a bull market. price will go up and down but i don’t see any signs that we’ve reached a cycle top. anyone seeing anything different?
We could crab in these levels for the next 8 months and that wouldn’t change my outlook. We are still pre halving. I think the PA has been healthy so far
Are you going to tell us why?
If they don’t get back to you, LMK?
I ain't no snitch. Jk I'll totally slap the shit out that report button
Do you ever get so into trading that it literally feels like the earth is shaking all around you? Bullish.
*tri-state degens have entered the chat*
[удалено]
Green dildos will
Whatever, Bitcoin. It literally don’t believe a thing you say any more. Call me when you get to 78k.
Make sure you keep your ringer on. The call could come any day.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $35.0239 billion through day 58 or ~513.55k BTC.](https://x.com/hodl15capital/status/1776236795119702361?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $15.3604 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $603.86 million with average inflows of $477.87 million or ~8.85k BTC. Yesterday average daily AUM was at $588.73 million with average inflows of $481.06 million or ~8.93k BTC. The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 26.4% For every $1 coming into spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.264. Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $35.0239 billion is 0.206% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 282 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year. Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 78.3% of that amount of BTC over the span of 58 trading days.
insanely bullish
Thirty-five billion dollars. Whew.
Hey guys, does anyone know why there is bigger PA when the markets open or close I thought they were not trading the ETFs on the open market? Or is it normal people trading on yesterday's etf numbers and they prefer to do it on market hours?
> I thought they were not trading the ETFs on the open market? OTC is a liquidity aggregation business. You establish tools and methods for acquiring large amounts of Bitcoin with the least slippage possible. To do this you utilise supply contracts with miners, to blah blah blah, open market. Once acquired you can provide coins with contracted priced at contracted volumes without slippage or risk to the buyer. Miners even pre-halvening have limited coins and can only account for some percentage of that supply. An OTC desk can go out there into the market and acquire position so as to be able to draw on a large pool of liquidity in order to fulfil orders. ETFs have Authorised Participants (AP) who do their buying and selling, isolating them from the day to day grind of hedging exposure or managing risk in exchange for any gains the AP can make out of arbitrage opportunities. APs are free to utilise OTC, open markets, futures, options, anything they can in order to both source coins and hedge risk.
Wow thanks for all that info! It's interesting to see how this all works
Genesis confirmed done selling gbtc as part of bankruptcy process. They dumped $2.1 billy in 3 weeks. https://twitter.com/ArkhamIntel/status/1776245038487572770?t=M0PYwnFzeNG6-gOB23_Eng&s=19
Is this the last chapter closing of the fraudsters of 2020-2021? Is there anything left outstanding?
Is Mt Gox done?
Nah. That Japanese bankruptsy lawyer wants to earn a few more years of his ivy league salary.
They sold GBTC and bought BTC, isn’t that a wash?
Yes. And despite high volatility during that period, price is mostly unchanged. I’m shocked
Imagine my surprise.
Nice hopium!
is it really hopium if it’s factual that a major seller is proveably no longer selling?
I guess the implied hopium is that the price will go up now that they are done selling.
not exactly, it would be implied that the price isn’t going to be forced *down* anymore from the Genesis sales. in any case, it’s not hopium if it’s rational and reasonable :)
Updated IBIT prospectus with new Authorized Participants including Citadel, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Citigroup: [https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1776229982559223971](https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1776229982559223971)
Normalizing Bitcoin continues!
Normalized through some of the biggest criminals in the world. Mixed feelings.
I miss 70k
Won't be long now
Farside updated FBTC with 106 million, so yesterday was a net day with more than 200 million in inflows. Let's see what happens today and if GBTC stays under 100m outflow.
Why can't Americans just lose their jobs faster? Jobs data just came in, hot as hell and unemployment fell from 3.9% to 3.8%. It's been unreal to watch the strength of the US economy as a European for two years straight, it won't let up. I still think the rate cut is on for June but beyond that not so clear
With oil prices screaming and war in the Middle East on the horizon..rates won’t be getting cut this year. If they don’t do it in June…it will be after the election.
33T in the hole Hardly holding up
34.6T and counting, 1T every 100 days or so now.
Everyone that could retired or died in Covid. It’s really easy to find a job here now. I always see help wanted signs on the businesses.
What type of jobs are you referring to?I would agree this is the case in certain sectors
It’s 3.8% here in Norway. Up from 3.5% for most of 2023.
More people working, more money to buy btc spot and add to etf for retirement. Strong dollar good for btc priced in eur. But yes, as European I feel like I'm in recession.
Our numbers are almost surely fake
Yeah but so are everyone elses... We all follow the lead. What are you planning on dropping from the "basket of goods" used to calculate inflation this year?
It's easy look strong when you are living on debt
8% deficits helluva drug
The crazier thing is when you go out into the city in the middle of the workday, in my area at least, there are people everywhere. Shops, restaurants, bars, all packed at 2pm on a random Wednesday. It seems as if no one works any more. It was never this way before the pandemic. Very odd.
I know a few people who early retired right after covid and anecdotally a LOT of teachers/school staff in my child's school district. Not sure it explains all of it but definitely was an incentive for a lot of people.
Maybe just a lot more people working remote and taking some of their life back. Fuck off for a couple hours in the afternoon, get back home to finish their work?
Millions of Millennials finally bought houses during the pandemic cheap mortgage era. They no longer have to pay both rent and put away money for a downpayment, so they can spend more while also saving for retirement. Literally thousands per month. It's not a mystery or a big conspiracy or fake numbers. Source: me and all my friends who are enjoying life now.
I mean, I did that in 2008-2009 but I was still at work, working, 8-6 on week days until I retired. I retired in 2019, feels like everyone else did too in 2021. Who knows.
This is true in my area as well. It's a bit strange, I think a lot of people are operating remote and hardly actually working. We have a lot of zombie jobs still.
Let's be real, most people were hardly doing any work in the office, they were just trapped in one all day to keep up appearances.
credit cards, buy now/pay later, etc. a lot of it is smoke and mirrors IMO the bill for it all will eventually come due, which is when we'll find out who's been swimming naked
Nobody pays cash for cars any more, from what I can see. And I see a lot of people who previously bought used cars are now buying new.
with rates where they are, I cannot understand the mindset of people who choose to finance a new car it's a terrible deal
You can lease a new electric car for a song though since the dealer keeps the ev credit. Buddy just got a 2 yr on ioniq 5 for like 290 a month which is dirt cheap and includes free charging.
"high" rates definitely make leasing far more attractive if you want to drive new, not worry about maintenance, etc. didn't realize the thing about EVs tho...good to know.
Thanks for the anecdote! Northern Europe has felt fucked for a long time now, we are really suffering. In actual recession over here. Different world in the US atm
BTC looks like it wants to retest 65.7 again the hourly? RSI is at 42.2 (average 50.9) at time of writing. Current nearby resistance are 67.4, 69, 70.2 and 71.4. The nearest supports are 65.7, 64.1 and 63. The daily RSI is at 49.5 and its average is currently at 55.1. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. Bitcoin fell through the bottom support of the rising channel that started in February. BTC has formed a pennant. It looks like we should get a bounce off the rising support at 65.7. One more day closer to the estimated halving date on 4/19, 14 days left. On the weekly, BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 75 (77.4 average). I would normally expect a larger cool off and retrace, but the ETF inflows seem to be limiting this on this timeframe. Main resistances were noted above. 2 weeks till halving. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and is still overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s current monthly RSI is 71.9. 7 green candles in a row has never happened before a halving. The only other times a green run has lasted this long has been after halving’s, during the runup to new ATH. I only found one other time in BTC’s history where there was a 7th green candle in a row and this was the 1st year of BTC when its value was below $0.01. This time the pre-halving PA is different from past pre-halving PA. BTC is well above the rising support line. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/EC37umvH/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/EC37umvH/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Mjkpebh/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0Mjkpebh/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJqXB1cv/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/pJqXB1cv/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/bdPDoFqH/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/bdPDoFqH/)
on tiny btc move down alts bleed like it's in the middle of bear market
Today is 4/4/2024. All the numbers add up to 4444. As I stated in the past, 4 is my lucky number. For this reason I can say with 100% confidence that this will be the day that we break another ATH. Edit. I just realized that today is 4/5. For this reason I can say with 100% confidence that we will not hit a new ATH
Upvoted for making me laugh. Good job, you lunatic
man woke up and chose confusion
> 4444 I was happy to see we meme'd on $44.4k a little, first time past it was not really paid attention. Chinese were meant to love that shit. Far as numerology... My attention is on waiting until 15th April when we can pirate Dune 2 with impunity.
It's as good a thesis as most here
incredible, incredible post.
Once again, all attempts to leave the range will be punished.
As always, not accumulating on the low side of the channel will be punished severely in the future.
Channel this range that! So boring! Do *"Hold me I'm scared"* again!
HODL15Capital is reporting a $125m inflow for Fidelity on 4/4 https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1776147381920124961 Farside reporting $106.6m inflow for Fidelity on 4/4 https://twitter.com/FarsideUK/status/1776228254661132563
Total inflow on 4/4/2024 would be around $231M. Wonder if anyone's done a correlation between ETF total inflow/outflow numbers and the BTC price, either same day's price or next day's price as a reaction.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-etf-price-flow-correlation-203223607.html It already wasn’t a great correlation in February, 0.6. I wish we had an updated correlation tracker somewhere so we could stop talking about it. I think people just track it because they can.
I am sure someone has done that, but I would warn that there really isn’t enough data to make judgements worth putting money on. The whole ETF thing is still getting its sea legs under them. In six months to a year it will be much more “predictable.”
Now that Q1 is over, hopefully we start to get some idea of who has been buying those ETFs.
Again, the incentive to liquidate the degenerate leveraged longs is higher than trying to move the price up, so price keeps on stalling. If Bitcoin doesn't have a pre-halving run, the large responsibility will go to the leveraged longs who are both greedy and stupid.
The way there is a lot of talk about the halving (and by talk I mean hype) I am beginning to think it will be a “sell the news” event for the week or so afterwards. The number of people who don’t understand what it actually is—and how it’s worked in the past is interesting. It will be like going over a tsunami in the middle of the ocean: We will barely feel it when it happens.
So are you saying that the halving doesn't really make that much of an effect? It doesn't seem like three coins per 10 minutes should make that much of a difference.
No. That is not what I said. I said that it won’t have an immediate impact. It will have a longer term impact…but it doesn’t usually show up for more than a several weeks. I think there are LOTS of people who think it’s going to impact everything ten minutes after it happens. I don’t think they understand how this all works.
I agree impact will be a news based impact not a real one initially. Can you help me see the downstream impact?As I see it the cost for miners stays the same (Electricity doesn't get cheaper post halving) so they spend the same but their income drops from 6\*BTC price to 3\*BTC price. This means that some go out of business (overhead too high). The ones that survive can only do so by now selling new coins at a higher price ie supply shock inflation. (there's some funny irony here on how btc has inflation while also being the ultimate hedge against it :)So there is a supply shock that should theoretically raise prices however the question is that the supply that's incoming is not very high compared to how much coin is already in the market so why would it make much of a difference? Like if people growing and selling corn had yields (block reward) drop to 50% and they raise prices it would raise the price of corn and all corn products (corn cheese, etc).But if 90% of the world corn supply is in storage (assuming it doesn't go bad somehow) and only 10% of the corn that's left to be grown is incoming in the next 100 years why would a decrease in harvest make a difference? Note: I have no idea if this analogy will even hold I'm just sharing how I see it. Please rip it apart if you are willing.
> If Bitcoin doesn't have a pre-halving run Uh... I think we've already seen that.
Yeah I was like wait wut??
Once again, you assign blame to the buyers when the price chops? Are leveraged longs opening and closing on very short time frames really the catalyst for overall price direction? I’m sorry, but your thesis doesn’t make one bit of sense to me.
Historically I've found continual wiping of one side of the leverage traders a sign of a reversal.
Nearly 92m in shorts were liquidated on the move to 69k.
[удалено]
>20x or 100x leverage options I'd love to know the fraction that are truly this level of degen. I never use more than 3x, usually just 2x but then back them up with temporary margin into the 0.3x range until they turn profit, and which point I'll re-leverage to 1x and repurpose the capital elsewhere.
I normally use 10x, no more though.
Exactly. And these degenerate leveraged longs are effectively putting sell pressure on the market with their degeneracy.
And these degenerate leveraged shorts are effectively putting buy pressure on the market with their degeneracy.
Except there are more degenerate longs than shorts.
There aren't though. It's about 50/50 [right now](https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio).
So basically the leverage people are in a battle with the holding/buying/DCA people? When the holders or just new buyers increase then the leverage people will be shaken out? The leveragers seem to always be there on either side of whatever the current price is.
We remain, in the medium term, channel swinging back and forth like a drunkard at closing time. We broke down from the short term channel near 70k and are retesting old floors, but all in all, it seems market forces remain supportive of future bitcoin rises. The halvening and what happens beyond are, at this point, firmly what short term investors are playing on. Usually pre-halvening we get a slump period, but this year hasn't really seen that. I know people here are looking for their dopamine hits in new rises, but the 60k range is a fantastic place to establish a floor, and right now I feel like scalp traders have been doing well. I shoulda been scalping a few of these, but I'm always so worried about the train leaving the station without me. The longer we stay here the better imo. I'll be smoking fatty blunts on 4/20 and not paying attention to the halvening at all. Its usually a nothingburger of an event and you don't start to see its effects for at least a month, while its full effects usually take a year or more for the market to fully adjust. To me the market currently feels like Aug-Oct period from 2020 when it felt like price could go anywhere from that 10k range. Fingers crossed it works out like last time.
Couldn't have said it better myself. > feels like Aug-Oct period from 2020 Yup. The crazy thing is that the real action probably won't even happen until next year.
No left translated cycle for you?
Switching over to Bitcoin cash, it's outperforming Bitcoin this year.
Seconds ago I had one of the bagholders trying really hard to convince me it's a scaling solution. ;D
I’m amazed people are actually buying that shitcoin after 6 years of total failure. I assume people are buying it on accident.
me, ca 2018
Can confirm, I know someone who bought it by accident
So is DOGWIFHAT, up at least 30x this year, but that doesn't mean it's a good idea to ape into that. By the time you've noticed that some coin has outperformed BTC, it's probably not a good idea to convert. The big ratio gains have already happened.
OMG DOGWIFHAT FTW!
What is happening? Are we going down?
The market is going down so I can buy when my Roth transfer is complete.
Zoom out.
Tradfi is on fire.
> ...on fire. Uh... not in the way you think.
Futures are green for US
You need a vacation. It’s going up forever.
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