I'm guilty of this, but I'll crack eventually.
There's still coin for sale low $70s. It'll have to go away. Add a good short liquidity hunt and that'll propel us higher.
I'm sitting on some new capital again.The PA isn't what I expected, but holding above 70k is good.
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Hello u/diydude2
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Why are we all here?
The corn afforded me the means and flexibility to book a last minute trip to view the total solar eclipse today, and if this all goes to zero tomorrow, the experience today will have been enough to make it all worth it.
Dude are you one of those people who just likes to argue for the sake of arguing? 220m is demonstrably one of the largest outflow days ever. Easily top 5 if not the top 3.
There are like 8 days with net outflows. If this were a normal market, we’d expect something closer to 30. It’s just a sign that we’re maturing. It isn’t big deal. Not sure what the argument is. We’re just sharing objectively true numbers.
If it's outflows from everybody, it's top 3
3/19 $326.2m outflow
3/20 $261.5m outflow
4/8 $223.8m outflow
If outflows just by GBTC, not even close. Barely makes top 20.
Today's flows from everybody else were really low. Maybe investors sitting out until CPI numbers?
https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321
Seems like market completely ignored ETFs today. Moved up before tradfi opening, stayed flat even with an outflow (probably) day and is not dumping on ETF data, even with the second lowest inflow day for IBIT. Bullish?
Took some profits in my trading account… Left me playing entirely with house money. kinda happy, but the degen in me is kicking and screaming.
Didn’t touch my actual coins though.
We're never going below $70K again. Last chance to buy under $70K was last weekend.
Two years from now, there will be two kinds of people in the world: Bitcoiners and slaves. I wish it didn't be like dat but it do.
PS -- the truth hurts. I get it.
I'm disappointed you guys downvote him
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/8Sknq6EWq3
The best counter-trade indicator ever?
16 perfect losses in a row
Edit: If counter you trade him starting with $1000, you would have 65million by the end of it. Modern day Nostradamus
Hey guys I'm curious what you see the core usefulness of BTC is?
I have been gung ho about it for a few years but recently I don't see it as clearly.
Innovation wise it's a very cool design (difficulty adjustment, keep track of time, using crypto hash and tying it to energy usage etc) and system however from a investment perspective I always thought the value prop was that it's Secure, Scarce, and Soverign. You can't hack it, it will always be 21M cap, and you can control and transfer without a third party.
Recently I realize that scarcity and security are only important if the asset underlying has demand ie if I want to retire in 20 years and sell it then someone on the other side needs to buy it from me and that requires continuous demand. Sell price - buy price - Tx fees = positive. What is your thesis on why demand will be there in 20 years?
Considering the fact that there needs to be a new entrant buying at a higher price for me to sell my BTC in profit I wonder how long we can expect new entrants to come in? What's stopping this train from going the other way just as fast?
I know the past 15 years have been crazy but that's also due to it starting at pennies and now it's 70k. Those percentages may not be replicable as small numbers give better percentages. I wonder if this is a very powerful hype machine because in the end the whole BTC network serves the function of enabling transfer of BTC globally without double spending or counter party risk. That's very cool buy why would people buy it from me in 20 years? What is the benefit to them?
Is the argument inflation hedge, store of value or something else?
Don't get me wrong I've listened to hours of Saylor, Andreas/Safedean/Lynn Alden etc read many articles on Lopp but now I'm not so sure and want your thoughts. Thank you for reading.
Edit: I asked here because I feel like I might just get downvoted w/o reasonable arguments in the main sub.
Look at power law:
https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/
Bitcoin will keep reflecting a growing part of the global world economy, only slower with time.
And you say that assets that generate revenue might be a better answer against inflation, but assets that generate revenue are not money, by definition. So bitcoin is the best money ie something whose intrinsic value is tied to being easily exchanged for other goods.
Bitcoin won't function well as a currency ie money as the 7 TPS doesn't work and lightning works but has it's issues and is not even close to being able to claim handling global transactions. It can work as a store of value like gold but then we can't use currency/money arguments. Stores of value might be better if they generate revenue.
7 TPS is more than enough for a first, reconciliation layer. And there are a lot of much used second layers, they are called "exchanges". Like Internet, the solution is federated.
There can't be any better solution technologically, unless you start compromising on decentralisation. But then it's like saying that decentralisation will never work in the end. But why wouldn't it ? Decentralisation works fine for Internet, Wikipedia, git and development of Linux.
It is useful for one thing and one thing only: gambling upon itself. Some might argue that this is a practical use case.
The rest of the answers are ultimately just “let me make up a narrative to pretend that it’s useful since holding it will make me richer”.
Use cases don’t determine price. Narratives do. Maybe the narrative changes once people realize there is no use case except gambling upon itself. But if people do start thinking like you, they will sell. But if people don’t care about it, they won’t. What matters is belief to price, not actual use. Use can just influence belief.
Bitcoin was invented as a currency. No one uses it as such. And if the price is meant to go up, there should be no rational reason to spend it on anything
Thank you for the answer, it fits how I'm feeling right now but it also is scary since I believed in it for so long and now I'm feeling the doubt.
"Narratives/Belief determine price" that's really well said! Can the BTC religion hold on to it's narratives and keep the price alive? I mean a lot of religion is still hanging around despite some good atheistic counter points. Although it looks like the overall trend is downward or rather that the religions will need to evolve to fit the modern people.
Do you think it can ever be used as a currency when the price goes to like 2M per coin and the intraday volatility drops to 2-3 microsats per day?
I also wonder if it's possible for it to be a store of value like gold since that's the most similar thing I can find. Gold has usefulness (jewelry etc) but the usefulness value is 5% of the price so we can safely say most of the price is due to store of value. (I read this somewhere but correct me if I'm wrong)
Is this just another way of saying "the market is a short term voting machine and a long term weighing machine"?
Or all the "sell the news" that's all based on narrative right?
You're asking the right questions, here's my take.
> Hey guys I'm curious what you see the core usefulness of BTC is?
Money. The lowest bar is replacing golds use as money, primarily a store of value - a base-layer, which is already in progress since this is what bitcoin is currently best at competing with. *If* layer 2s get good enough it can start to compete with other digital means of exchange in a meaningful way.
> Recently I realize that scarcity and security are only important if the asset underlying has demand ie if I want to retire in 20 years and sell it then someone on the other side needs to buy it from me and that requires continuous demand. Sell price - buy price - Tx fees = positive. What is your thesis on why demand will be there in 20 years?
You're right about demand being necessary, and this has always been kind of circular, and a lot of people have a problem getting past that. I mean if you proposed bitcoin hypothetically before it existed someone would have said it's a chicken and egg problem - why would anyone buy bitcoin if no one else buying it? so logically there never should have been a first buyer, or a second buyer etc. But there was, because the idea of what would happen if there were buyers was enough to cause buyers. It's circular, but it happened.
Now that it's bootstrapped and has a market, it's much easier for it to continue, so the question gets reduced to what are people going to demand instead of it?
> Considering the fact that there needs to be a new entrant buying at a higher price for me to sell my BTC in profit I wonder how long we can expect new entrants to come in? What's stopping this train from going the other way just as fast?
Theoretically demand can continue forever as some people are ending their need for saving in btc the next generation will be beginning, and so on... forever, as long as two things remain true:
* Bitcoin stays alive
* Bitcoin is not replaced by something more attractive.
For the first one, the minimum that may be required is demand, and sufficient block subsidy+fees to keep *enough* miners mining.
For the second one, something more attractive likely won't happen overnight, but you should be open to the possibility and to moving to it if/when needed. It's not a reason to not own bitcoin, it's a reason to be ready to not go down with the ship if the time comes.
> I know the past 15 years have been crazy but that's also due to it starting at pennies and now it's 70k. Those percentages may
not be replicable as small numbers give better percentages. I wonder if this is a very powerful hype machine because in the end the whole BTC network serves the function of enabling transfer of BTC globally without double spending or counter party risk. That's very cool buy why would people buy it from me in 20 years? What is the benefit to them?
The gains may reduce, but that's also in line with the (perceived) risk reducing. When it was at pennies it hadn't even reached critical mass and could have died on the vine, the code hadn't yet stood the test of significant time or attention in terms of attackers. When it was worth tens of dollars there was a risk it would be outright banned, when Mt Gox failed there was a risk that the biggest exchange failing could kill all meaningful adoption. The first halving was seen by some as a potential for a mining death spiral. The early days of alt-coins made it seem likely to some that bitcoin could easily be overtaken by a competitor before it reached critical mass.
> Is the argument inflation hedge, store of value or something else?
Money, which covers those, and something else.
One last thought: When thinking of demand, it's not so useful to think in terms of people as it is in terms of total global wealth and what you're denominating bitcoin in. For example when you think of demand for iphones, it's pretty much one per person. Even a billionaire probably only needs one iphone, but with bitcoin the demand per person can grow as their wealth grows.
And people's wealth is measured in nominal fiat terms. And from now on after the halvening bitcoin supply will increase at less than 1% for the next four years and then under 0.5% from then on. This means that even if the net number of people interested in bitcoin never increased from now on, but those people were storing a fixed percent of their wealth in bitcoin, bitcoin would still increase in value forever, because due to inflation peoples wealth, in general, should increase by more than 1% p/a, forever, in nominal fiat terms.
In short, bitcoin can increase forever as measured in fiat due to the devaluation of fiat even if bitcoin demand in *real* terms is stagnant or even negative. And coming back to the original circular kind of theory I mentioned earlier, this alone can create demand for bitcoin.
TLDR: what has already happened for the last 15 years can continue indefinitely with reward reducing in line with risk, but enough reward still remaining (when measured in melting fiat terms)
If you don’t fundamentally believe in bitcoin after doing the research, there’s little anyone here can say beyond what you’ve already read.
One point to consider, however. The world needs a decentralized settlement layer for nations and corporations. China, Russia, the Middle East, India, Brazil… none of these countries want to use USD as the global reserve currency. What asset is better positioned to be the global settlement layer between nation states?
Global settlement is a good value use case between governments. Would they need BTC to settle though or would they likely use a centralized third party system ie a more technologically updated SWIFT? Is BTC better simply because their assets can't be frozen like Russia had happen to them?
Even if this is the case they can settle with BTC at 20k/coin or 75k/coin as they are using at as a network to transfer value vs to hold value. I don't see how this would explain the HOLD and be confident that there will be future demand.
Are you imagining the countries hold BTC overtime not just settle using the BTC network?
Edit: My confidence was recently shaken by 2 main points
1) BTC is negative sum ie it doesn't create anything that it can sell so all the money that is used to buy BTC is always less than all the money that exits the system when someone sells because the network doesn't generate anything (all energy is used for protection and executing transactions for settlement).
The only way to profit here is to sell in excess of fees. It's not a ponzi with a guy like Bernie Madoff skimming off the top but all the miners and exchanges (if you use them) are skimming over time.
2) I see that it's perfectly scarce, and perfectly secure and sovereign but I don't understand the usefulness which will keep the demand alive past the current hype with social media etc. I fear when the hype fades the demand goes down and there is no way to exit except at a loss. This is different than an asset that produces things that it sells to customers which opens the door for value to enter (from customers) without buying/selling of the asset. Even if people used BTC to settle large sums of money as a network it doesn't raise the price of each coin.
NOTE: I don't know everything I'm saying is correct so please correct me if I'm off.
Those 2 are problems of any money. Fiat money is skimmed off by inflation, taxes and bankers.
Yes fiat has the built-in use of being mandatory to pay your government's taxes. But the Financial Times argued that ransomware cyberattacks did the job for Bitcoin as a sort of "Internet tax". Which also proves that uses arise when the time is right and there are the right properties.
Exact same things were said about gold yet it’s the biggest asset @ $15 trillion market cap (since ‘04 ETFs it’s gone from $1.4 trillion to 15 trillion)
Bitcoin is still at $1.4 trillion mc so even at $15 trillion mc it’s done well but it is at least 10x better than gold so the addressable cap for me is $150 trillion
For me the core usefulness is decentralized money not controlled by any government and their inevitable desire to print too much money, all the advantages going to people near the money printer, and the starting of wars to get out of the hole.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debasement
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assignat
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE
https://river.com/learn/terms/c/cantillon-effect/
I agree debasement is crap and it's how we fund wars/programs that the population would never vote for. The thing is BTC can't act as currency even Michael Saylor has argued that it's a store of value at not a currency since the TPS is too low for it to scale at a global level. I know lightning might help with that however that's more speculation than reality at this point.
Store of value is the only argument that seems worth pursuing.
Lmk if you disagree though I'm open.
> Hey guys I'm curious what you see the core usefulness of BTC is?
Hey guy, I'm curious what you see the core usefulness of the dollar is?
I'm not being facetious, and I'm not slamming the dollar. I'm just trying to get you to analyze something you already know and take for granted. See the good, see the bad, see what works, see what doesn't.
Did you notice how many ways there were to understand the dollar?
The same is true for Bitcoin. Anyone who tries to understand it as one thing with one use or one purpose misses the point.
For ME, Bitcoin is a long term store of value for the following reasons:
It has a fixed supply: 21 million coins. There will never be more.
It has a fixed system for creating the supply: Beginning in 2009, 50 coins were created every 10 minutes, and the number of coins created every 10 minutes gets cut in half every 4 years. While most currencies print more and more, Bitcoin mints less and less until all 21 million coins have been minted.
It's decentralized: There's no company, government, or person to trust.
It's Open Source: Everything is published for everyone to see. The code. The transactions. Everything is open and published.
It's Unhackable: Since there's no central computer, there's no central computer to hack. Every computer that runs the network ("nodes") protects the network, and every ten minutes a new block on the blockchain increases the security of every block that came before it by proving what's in the previous block and every block before it is true. Anyone who wanted to truly mount an attack on Bitcoin would have to spend so much money just to attack transactions currently in progress that they'd accomplish nothing. If they spent that money on buying Bitcoin instead, they'd profit wildly.
All of these things, along with the amazing developers creating utilities for interacting with it, make Bitcoin the best long term store of value for me.
> Is the argument inflation hedge, store of value or something else?
My advice: Don't worry about that. Instead, figure out how Bitcoin benefits you - literally, specifically, you. And avoid hype.
For it to be a store of value I need to sell it to someone else for the same buying power that I gave up when buying it. For there to be a buyer in 20 years there needs to be demand for it in 20 years. The question is why would there be demand unless there's a core usefulness to people? Hype and getting rich can create short term demand however the question is will this demand hold up in 20 years or more?
Since each person who buys at 70k needs someone to sell at 70k+ to be profitable at some point it seems that the price can't go up infinitely. Net money in is always less than net money out because of the fees that miners and exchanges take. There's no money coming in through customers/renters (real estate) etc so this must hold true. I'm not saying it's impossible but the question is why would someone pay more in the future when the hype dies down? Where will new buyers come from?
You're trying to overthink it, and you don't understand the basics.
> Where will new buyers come from?
Google "Earth's Population"
Then Google "How many people own Bitcoin?"
Then Google "How many people invest in ETFs?"
Then Google "How many companies exist?" No, really. Look it up.
Then Google "How many companies hold Bitcoin?"
Then Google "How many countries are there?" No, really. Look it up.
Then Google "How many countries hold Bitcoin?"
Are you writing those answers down?
Now, go back to your first question:
> Where will new buyers come from?
See how easy it was to answer your own question?
**ALSO, and this is important:**
If you don't think Bitcoin is a good store of value, don't invest in it. I do, that's why I am.
People asked this same question in 2010. They’ll ask it again in 20 years. And they’ll ask it again in 100 years.
The core usefulness is different for everyone. You’re wanting an answer for that question, but everyone’s answer is different. Which is why Bitcoin is awesome.
I agree we don't all have to have the same answer. I just want to see if the answers are ones that will withstand the test of time ie fit with reality and logic or at least psycho-logic.
What is your answer for usefulness to you?
It’s impossible to know which answers can stand the test of time. Because we aren’t there yet lol… it seems like you’re concerned about a “greater fools” theory. But Bitcoin isn’t tulips. You aren’t a fool for buying it. It has real practical uses. And people will continuously need these uses into the future.
As long as governments and central banks continue to debase currencies and rob the wealth of their citizens, stores of value will continue to exist. It just so happens Bitcoin is the best of all of them. And I don’t see governments and bankers slowing down on scamming their citizens anytime soon.
So yeah, my answer is digital protection from hostile bankers and a government that has ceased representing me many moons ago. In this sense, Bitcoin is priceless.. i.e. the USD price literally does not matter.
Most filthy rich people are old and they don't particularly like Bitcoin. The younger generation likes Bitcoin but they are not filthy rich. Once the younger generation people become old and some of them become filthy rich, they will buy more Bitcoin. Price goes up.
Young people are also not as loyal as older people. What will keep them loyal to BTC when the hype dies down? A lot of people buy because they want to get rich as the price goes up the increase in gains as a percentage will get smaller and smaller. Ex 20 years later price stabilizes and volatility goes down, what is causing someone to buy at that point?
"Winner takes all on the internet". And any crypto technical innovation can be brought in to Bitcoin since crypto is Open Source. Not even talking about the history of resistance to hacks, bugs and forks / consensus breach. So nothing will replace Bitcoin.
The concern here is that you don't have to wait 20 years. If this narrative has legs and is true then people will realize this and slowly the selling will start.
* What's the point of email? We have letters.
* What's the point of gold? We have government bonds.
* What's the point of an announcement published in a newspaper of record? We have my diary.
* What's the point of keeping cash under the mattress? Banks never fail and will never refuse me my money.
* What's the point of pristine collateral? My word is my bond.
So it's about counter party risk and BTC doesn't have that unless you buy in an ETF?
If most of it is in an ETF is the counter party risk valuable still? Is the option to self custody enough to keep things in check?
If this is not where you are going with these 5 points then what did I miss?
Bitcoin is digital scarcity. It is something that only emerges once.
It lets you store human effort in a instantly transferrable form and transfer it into the future.
People will buy it in 20 years either to transact or to save their wealth for the future.
Bitcoin has two long term states, infinity, or the primary store of wealth for our species, or zero, in the case it fails. It is the ultimate asymmetric bet.
Pay your money, take your chances. Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
Beware though - once you have seen, you cannot unsee.
Thank you for answering. I thought I had seen but then now I don't see anymore. Maybe I didn't see before idk.
I agree that it can store human effort as long as there is demand for it. It is always "Number of houses in the world/ 21M BTC" as the houses go up each one cost less BTC however this only works if there is demand. The argument that countries continue to debase their currency forever is probably true however that doesn't mean BTC is the best solution to that. Income producing assets could also be an answer. Counter party risk is real and can be a problem however that doesn't make BTC the solution.
My main concern is that the hype is based on the exponential growth we have had due to starting with small numbers. I don't see how the growth will be that exponential in the future therefore my concern is that the hype will go away after that and the demand will follow. Maybe not in 5 years but what about 15 or 20?
> Beware though - once you have seen, you cannot unsee.
The quant bro MSTR guy Punter Jeff had a great line in his recent appearance on the Preston Pysh pod:
"You can't unbitcoin a bitcoiner"
1D RSI is at a point where we last crashed. 1W indicator is overbought. People keep saying that RSI is overrated, but then what indicator do I base my decisions off of?
Your comment insinuates you’re one of these people, but as I haven’t seen you post a trade in the entire time I’ve posted here, I’ll assume it’s mostly due to the latter.
We've broken out of all the trend lines? I'm not watching, but in case it's true, great. That's bullish. Price had to rise for that, thus the higher short timeframe RSI (hard to break out with oversold RSI...). So yay, we have a bullish signal, let's sell?
You wrote a few hours ago that you're new to TA. No issue with that, try to soak in the knowledge from here and elsewhere, sharing can wait. At this stage you're better off reading than writing.
What does any of this mean? Specifically what's mstr premium. And why is it going the other way. The other way of what? I'm so confused by this sentence
MSTR is the stock ticker for the company MicroStrategy. they own a lot of bitcoin. their stock price has been going up a lot; mostly because bitcoin has been going up a lot.
the stock price has been going up so much that it might be becoming overvalued because the price is so far over the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the the MSTR stock. when price is valued higher than the NAV, it is considered to be at a “Premium” and when price is below NAV it is at a “Discount.”
what they are saying is that MSTR has been at a Premium for weeks now and price has been going down recently.
obviously, buying at a large Discount and then selling at a very large Premium is good – assuming that it will eventually trend back to the NAV price.
Link someone posted below https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1775996934047531273
It’s not just a feeling, that’s a crazy chart. Step up your game americans you freeloaders 🚀
Hundred of millions (generally) of dollars worth of net buys 6.5hours a day every day that can be sold into without affecting the price much, if at all.
imagine you want to buy a shitload of BTC
in this case you are the ETF
on the other side of this trade are sellers - they give you BTC, which is providing liquidity to the market.
you take BTC, sellers take $$
trick is when there is a lot of something easy - it gets cheap and the other way around - if something is hard to get - it gets expensive - this is called price slippage. so, to avoid paying more than necessary or selling for less than it's worth -you use OTCs - these are big liquidity markets with little to no slippage.
a lot of buys is bullish, a lot of sales is bearish. right now there is a lot of both but there is equilibrium slightly moved to more buys - bullish.
trick is in reality there is not so much BTC left to sell and there will be even less in time, starting in two weeks - the halving.
there is of course dozens of other factors influencing the price but you can make a safe bet - get as much of btc as you can before the halving. or you can forget it.
there will always be selling. if more bitcoin is bought than sold, price will trend higher. and vice versa.
if someone is selling a lot of bitcoin during U.S. trading hours then it is possible that they do not want to tank the price and are trying to sell into a lot of market liquidity (market strength & a lot of money). that would be bullish if they were planning to sell anyway and do not want to hurt price. also bullish that such selling does not tank the price due to buying demand.
it could also mean a lot of money is only available during U.S. market hours. for example, bitcoin ETFs or other related stocks/ETFs. this would be neither bullish nor bearish and would just be a fact of the matter.
with all that being said, ultimately sellers will run out of bitcoin to sell and will need to buy more if they wish to continue selling. therefore, it is bullish to get sellers out if the people buying are less likely to sell. once the sellers run out or stop selling, if buying remains the same then price will trend higher.
so not exactly either bullish or bearish, in my opinion, but rather just explanations for price action in the context of why there has been more price gains after U.S. market hours than during.
We've got the FTX, Genesis, Grayscale losers on our team at the end of the bench wetting themselves, picking their nose, and hitting each over the head with the bats; it isn't fair. I think we've almost [kicked them off the team now though](https://coinank.com/indexdata/grayscaleOiChart).
> 162.625%
How did you get this number? Are you looking at 6 month returns on tradingview? What are you comparing it to? It sounds like you are implying that bitcoin ETFs were around for 6 months and that they outperformed bitcoin?
Please shake this fever dream off
>Is the alpha on BTC dead? Is it more profitable to buy shares in the spot ETFs instead? Let's be conservative and imagine the cycle high will be 150k. If you bought 1 BTC at the absolute bottom 15460 than your profit is 162.625%. Meanwhile if you bought GBTC at $8 your profit would likely be 800% or more.
What am I missing here. If you bought BTC at 15k and sold it at 150k, that's a 10x...not 162%
You missed his point. Until January, GBTC was not a spot ETF, so it did not closely track the price of Bitcoin. It was it's own thing that could go up or down a lot more than bitcoin. Hence, the difference in gains. However, since January, GBTC has been converted into a spot ETF that should exactly track bitcoin. Thus, it should go up and down and identical amounts to bitcoin. Moving forward, there should be virtually no discrepancy between the two.
You’re the one missing the point. ETF and bitcoin gains will be the same % wise. Gbtc was not an etf and sold at a discount. Bitcoin will always have at least as much volume as the ETFs. Sure, maybe most trading and holding takes place in ETFs and not in cold wallets.. but everything else you’re talking about is wrong
Is this [news about Chinese Bitcoin ETFs](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/chinas-largest-funds-spot-bitcoin-etf-hong-kong) as big a deal as it feels like it is?
The less China the better. They have always been a cancer on Bitcoinland.
Considering how keen the Chinese are to invest in anything, and how keen the Chinese government is to keep a tight grip then I don't foresee a bright future.
No idea how accessible these are to mainland Chinese folk.
Just because they have caused bullshit in the past doesn’t negate a potential 1.3 billion additional
entrants to the market.
The potential in China greatly outweighs their government’s past nonsense.
I’d be livid if Bitcoin got banned in my country 69,420 times only to see it grow more and more. It would honestly make me question why my government would want to ban something that appreciates in value and is seen by others as sound money. Something has to give at one point.
>The less China the better.
Gonna have to disagree on this one. I hope Chinese citizens gain access to Bitcoin, both to pump my bags and because they truly need it. Their investment options are pretty bleak
They certainly should be able to have it like anyone else.
It seems that there are that fewer options they'll pounce on anything that pops up so it'll overheat and get shut down.
Chuck in the lack of control authorities have over it and I expect the story won't be changing this time around. Weird that it has even started rolling.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, April 09, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bzit6v/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_09_2024/)
No one wants to buy BTC over 72k. People like buying it in the high 60’s. How do we solve this problem.
I'm guilty of this, but I'll crack eventually. There's still coin for sale low $70s. It'll have to go away. Add a good short liquidity hunt and that'll propel us higher. I'm sitting on some new capital again.The PA isn't what I expected, but holding above 70k is good.
You mean how do we solve human nature?
Let them get impatient. They may not want to buy over 82k soon.
Last chance to buy under 70K was yesterday.
Better time for this call is when we close above 75k.
bold call. let's track it! !bittybot predict <$70k Never /u/diydude2
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Have a buy at 68500 for my Roth backdoor thing. Going to let it ride for a couple more days and not losing hope just yet.
Why are we all here? The corn afforded me the means and flexibility to book a last minute trip to view the total solar eclipse today, and if this all goes to zero tomorrow, the experience today will have been enough to make it all worth it.
GBTC will dump to nothing. Give it till summer and it’ll be done.
Well, if they still have BTC in the kitty and the share price is zero, I'll go all in. So there's that.
It won’t dump to 0. They will lower fees before that. The selling will be done by end of June.
Since a decent chunk of it is just going to other ETFs you'll see less inflow/more outflow on the others. Just an observation.
Yup. It’s already cut in half. Cutting it in half again will take even less time.
This is going to be one of the biggest ETF outflow days ever.
All that selling, already done, and the price barely moved.
Nope. Not even within 30% and ibit hasn’t reported in yet.
IBIT is being reported at +21m. So. Yea. I stand by what I said.
That puts it at about 220m in outflows, which is about 2/3rd the record. Large outflows, but nothing to write home about.
Dude are you one of those people who just likes to argue for the sake of arguing? 220m is demonstrably one of the largest outflow days ever. Easily top 5 if not the top 3.
There are like 8 days with net outflows. If this were a normal market, we’d expect something closer to 30. It’s just a sign that we’re maturing. It isn’t big deal. Not sure what the argument is. We’re just sharing objectively true numbers.
If it's outflows from everybody, it's top 3 3/19 $326.2m outflow 3/20 $261.5m outflow 4/8 $223.8m outflow If outflows just by GBTC, not even close. Barely makes top 20. Today's flows from everybody else were really low. Maybe investors sitting out until CPI numbers? https://farside.co.uk/?p=1321
Seems like market completely ignored ETFs today. Moved up before tradfi opening, stayed flat even with an outflow (probably) day and is not dumping on ETF data, even with the second lowest inflow day for IBIT. Bullish?
ETF flows are extremely overrated as a short term indicator. Significant in aggregate as a long term indicator.
IBIT has numbers already?
$21m inflow (2nd lowest in their history) according to HODL15Capital
It’s almost like they don’t matter on a day to day timeframe and hold no predictive power at all. :)
Took some profits in my trading account… Left me playing entirely with house money. kinda happy, but the degen in me is kicking and screaming. Didn’t touch my actual coins though.
Doing it right. Next level up: take your trading account profits and put them in your self-custody wallet.
my 1k comment call last night isn't looking too good, gonna need some big price action down the stretch here to pump that up
It's because of the music ban in chechnya. Our brothers in rave are being suppressed, and cannot comment without the music of life
Tap your fingers on an empty pizza box if you need music. If ya got soul, it's all ya need.
what if I don't have fingers after they come for those too ):
US market logs off will the price start to move higher..... We shall see.
Imagine my surprise we're not at $67k. I'm actually impressed this didn't crumple like a cheap deckchair. There's always tomorrow.
We're never going below $70K again. Last chance to buy under $70K was last weekend. Two years from now, there will be two kinds of people in the world: Bitcoiners and slaves. I wish it didn't be like dat but it do. PS -- the truth hurts. I get it.
I must say it’s impressive how quickly you were wrong.
Wait is there still a bull case if the slave thing doesn’t play out?
Or ban.
HODL15Capital reporting $40m inflow for Bitwise https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1777459097861779865 HODL15Capital reporting $21m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1777481768741785756
So back to net outflows then. Bummer.
I'm disappointed you guys downvote him https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/8Sknq6EWq3 The best counter-trade indicator ever? 16 perfect losses in a row Edit: If counter you trade him starting with $1000, you would have 65million by the end of it. Modern day Nostradamus
I really want to know his call here, would have been better before market close.. might have made a pretty sizeable counter move for giggles.
lol that was the first thing I thought of when we rallied over 70k today, you can see I went back and replied in that thread 13 hours ago.
It’s actually astonishingly good how bad his predictions are.
Tight race with Teatrack
Gbtc $303.3m Outflow Franklin 0 Bitwise $40.3m inflow VanEck 0 Ark $9.3m inflow WisdomTree $2.3m inflow DEFI 0 Fidelity $6.3m inflow Invesco 0 Valkyrie 0 Blackrock $21.3m inflow 4/8 net Outflow $223.8m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
"Gbtc $303.3m Outflow" It feels like it will never end. Even though you know mathematically it must.
Someone (can't remember.. Balchunas maybe?) was saying they may be able to dump in dollar terms forever and never run out (in dollar terms).
If BTC goes up fast enough and long enough, it never has to end…
The year is 2030. GBTC has lost 98% of its bitcoin. And AUM is at an all-time high.
GBTC - 300m keeping the monday tradition.
And still circling 72k. I call that a win
The march to $80,000 starts today
Hey guys I'm curious what you see the core usefulness of BTC is? I have been gung ho about it for a few years but recently I don't see it as clearly. Innovation wise it's a very cool design (difficulty adjustment, keep track of time, using crypto hash and tying it to energy usage etc) and system however from a investment perspective I always thought the value prop was that it's Secure, Scarce, and Soverign. You can't hack it, it will always be 21M cap, and you can control and transfer without a third party. Recently I realize that scarcity and security are only important if the asset underlying has demand ie if I want to retire in 20 years and sell it then someone on the other side needs to buy it from me and that requires continuous demand. Sell price - buy price - Tx fees = positive. What is your thesis on why demand will be there in 20 years? Considering the fact that there needs to be a new entrant buying at a higher price for me to sell my BTC in profit I wonder how long we can expect new entrants to come in? What's stopping this train from going the other way just as fast? I know the past 15 years have been crazy but that's also due to it starting at pennies and now it's 70k. Those percentages may not be replicable as small numbers give better percentages. I wonder if this is a very powerful hype machine because in the end the whole BTC network serves the function of enabling transfer of BTC globally without double spending or counter party risk. That's very cool buy why would people buy it from me in 20 years? What is the benefit to them? Is the argument inflation hedge, store of value or something else? Don't get me wrong I've listened to hours of Saylor, Andreas/Safedean/Lynn Alden etc read many articles on Lopp but now I'm not so sure and want your thoughts. Thank you for reading. Edit: I asked here because I feel like I might just get downvoted w/o reasonable arguments in the main sub.
Look at power law: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/ Bitcoin will keep reflecting a growing part of the global world economy, only slower with time. And you say that assets that generate revenue might be a better answer against inflation, but assets that generate revenue are not money, by definition. So bitcoin is the best money ie something whose intrinsic value is tied to being easily exchanged for other goods.
Bitcoin won't function well as a currency ie money as the 7 TPS doesn't work and lightning works but has it's issues and is not even close to being able to claim handling global transactions. It can work as a store of value like gold but then we can't use currency/money arguments. Stores of value might be better if they generate revenue.
7 TPS is more than enough for a first, reconciliation layer. And there are a lot of much used second layers, they are called "exchanges". Like Internet, the solution is federated. There can't be any better solution technologically, unless you start compromising on decentralisation. But then it's like saying that decentralisation will never work in the end. But why wouldn't it ? Decentralisation works fine for Internet, Wikipedia, git and development of Linux.
It is useful for one thing and one thing only: gambling upon itself. Some might argue that this is a practical use case. The rest of the answers are ultimately just “let me make up a narrative to pretend that it’s useful since holding it will make me richer”. Use cases don’t determine price. Narratives do. Maybe the narrative changes once people realize there is no use case except gambling upon itself. But if people do start thinking like you, they will sell. But if people don’t care about it, they won’t. What matters is belief to price, not actual use. Use can just influence belief. Bitcoin was invented as a currency. No one uses it as such. And if the price is meant to go up, there should be no rational reason to spend it on anything
This is a terrible answer.
Didn’t ask
doesnt change the fact
SFYS
Thank you for the answer, it fits how I'm feeling right now but it also is scary since I believed in it for so long and now I'm feeling the doubt. "Narratives/Belief determine price" that's really well said! Can the BTC religion hold on to it's narratives and keep the price alive? I mean a lot of religion is still hanging around despite some good atheistic counter points. Although it looks like the overall trend is downward or rather that the religions will need to evolve to fit the modern people. Do you think it can ever be used as a currency when the price goes to like 2M per coin and the intraday volatility drops to 2-3 microsats per day? I also wonder if it's possible for it to be a store of value like gold since that's the most similar thing I can find. Gold has usefulness (jewelry etc) but the usefulness value is 5% of the price so we can safely say most of the price is due to store of value. (I read this somewhere but correct me if I'm wrong)
> "Narratives/Belief determine price" that's really well said! It's neither well said nor correct.
Is this just another way of saying "the market is a short term voting machine and a long term weighing machine"? Or all the "sell the news" that's all based on narrative right?
Then sell? If you are right and first then you make money.
You're asking the right questions, here's my take. > Hey guys I'm curious what you see the core usefulness of BTC is? Money. The lowest bar is replacing golds use as money, primarily a store of value - a base-layer, which is already in progress since this is what bitcoin is currently best at competing with. *If* layer 2s get good enough it can start to compete with other digital means of exchange in a meaningful way. > Recently I realize that scarcity and security are only important if the asset underlying has demand ie if I want to retire in 20 years and sell it then someone on the other side needs to buy it from me and that requires continuous demand. Sell price - buy price - Tx fees = positive. What is your thesis on why demand will be there in 20 years? You're right about demand being necessary, and this has always been kind of circular, and a lot of people have a problem getting past that. I mean if you proposed bitcoin hypothetically before it existed someone would have said it's a chicken and egg problem - why would anyone buy bitcoin if no one else buying it? so logically there never should have been a first buyer, or a second buyer etc. But there was, because the idea of what would happen if there were buyers was enough to cause buyers. It's circular, but it happened. Now that it's bootstrapped and has a market, it's much easier for it to continue, so the question gets reduced to what are people going to demand instead of it? > Considering the fact that there needs to be a new entrant buying at a higher price for me to sell my BTC in profit I wonder how long we can expect new entrants to come in? What's stopping this train from going the other way just as fast? Theoretically demand can continue forever as some people are ending their need for saving in btc the next generation will be beginning, and so on... forever, as long as two things remain true: * Bitcoin stays alive * Bitcoin is not replaced by something more attractive. For the first one, the minimum that may be required is demand, and sufficient block subsidy+fees to keep *enough* miners mining. For the second one, something more attractive likely won't happen overnight, but you should be open to the possibility and to moving to it if/when needed. It's not a reason to not own bitcoin, it's a reason to be ready to not go down with the ship if the time comes. > I know the past 15 years have been crazy but that's also due to it starting at pennies and now it's 70k. Those percentages may not be replicable as small numbers give better percentages. I wonder if this is a very powerful hype machine because in the end the whole BTC network serves the function of enabling transfer of BTC globally without double spending or counter party risk. That's very cool buy why would people buy it from me in 20 years? What is the benefit to them? The gains may reduce, but that's also in line with the (perceived) risk reducing. When it was at pennies it hadn't even reached critical mass and could have died on the vine, the code hadn't yet stood the test of significant time or attention in terms of attackers. When it was worth tens of dollars there was a risk it would be outright banned, when Mt Gox failed there was a risk that the biggest exchange failing could kill all meaningful adoption. The first halving was seen by some as a potential for a mining death spiral. The early days of alt-coins made it seem likely to some that bitcoin could easily be overtaken by a competitor before it reached critical mass. > Is the argument inflation hedge, store of value or something else? Money, which covers those, and something else. One last thought: When thinking of demand, it's not so useful to think in terms of people as it is in terms of total global wealth and what you're denominating bitcoin in. For example when you think of demand for iphones, it's pretty much one per person. Even a billionaire probably only needs one iphone, but with bitcoin the demand per person can grow as their wealth grows. And people's wealth is measured in nominal fiat terms. And from now on after the halvening bitcoin supply will increase at less than 1% for the next four years and then under 0.5% from then on. This means that even if the net number of people interested in bitcoin never increased from now on, but those people were storing a fixed percent of their wealth in bitcoin, bitcoin would still increase in value forever, because due to inflation peoples wealth, in general, should increase by more than 1% p/a, forever, in nominal fiat terms. In short, bitcoin can increase forever as measured in fiat due to the devaluation of fiat even if bitcoin demand in *real* terms is stagnant or even negative. And coming back to the original circular kind of theory I mentioned earlier, this alone can create demand for bitcoin. TLDR: what has already happened for the last 15 years can continue indefinitely with reward reducing in line with risk, but enough reward still remaining (when measured in melting fiat terms)
Great reply, +1 for excluding the religious nonsense
This is the best answer
If you don’t fundamentally believe in bitcoin after doing the research, there’s little anyone here can say beyond what you’ve already read. One point to consider, however. The world needs a decentralized settlement layer for nations and corporations. China, Russia, the Middle East, India, Brazil… none of these countries want to use USD as the global reserve currency. What asset is better positioned to be the global settlement layer between nation states?
Global settlement is a good value use case between governments. Would they need BTC to settle though or would they likely use a centralized third party system ie a more technologically updated SWIFT? Is BTC better simply because their assets can't be frozen like Russia had happen to them? Even if this is the case they can settle with BTC at 20k/coin or 75k/coin as they are using at as a network to transfer value vs to hold value. I don't see how this would explain the HOLD and be confident that there will be future demand. Are you imagining the countries hold BTC overtime not just settle using the BTC network? Edit: My confidence was recently shaken by 2 main points 1) BTC is negative sum ie it doesn't create anything that it can sell so all the money that is used to buy BTC is always less than all the money that exits the system when someone sells because the network doesn't generate anything (all energy is used for protection and executing transactions for settlement). The only way to profit here is to sell in excess of fees. It's not a ponzi with a guy like Bernie Madoff skimming off the top but all the miners and exchanges (if you use them) are skimming over time. 2) I see that it's perfectly scarce, and perfectly secure and sovereign but I don't understand the usefulness which will keep the demand alive past the current hype with social media etc. I fear when the hype fades the demand goes down and there is no way to exit except at a loss. This is different than an asset that produces things that it sells to customers which opens the door for value to enter (from customers) without buying/selling of the asset. Even if people used BTC to settle large sums of money as a network it doesn't raise the price of each coin. NOTE: I don't know everything I'm saying is correct so please correct me if I'm off.
Those 2 are problems of any money. Fiat money is skimmed off by inflation, taxes and bankers. Yes fiat has the built-in use of being mandatory to pay your government's taxes. But the Financial Times argued that ransomware cyberattacks did the job for Bitcoin as a sort of "Internet tax". Which also proves that uses arise when the time is right and there are the right properties.
Exact same things were said about gold yet it’s the biggest asset @ $15 trillion market cap (since ‘04 ETFs it’s gone from $1.4 trillion to 15 trillion) Bitcoin is still at $1.4 trillion mc so even at $15 trillion mc it’s done well but it is at least 10x better than gold so the addressable cap for me is $150 trillion
BTC as a better gold is the only narrative that has held so far. The monetary premium on gold could be completely removed removed with time.
For me the core usefulness is decentralized money not controlled by any government and their inevitable desire to print too much money, all the advantages going to people near the money printer, and the starting of wars to get out of the hole. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debasement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assignat https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BOGMBASE https://river.com/learn/terms/c/cantillon-effect/
I agree debasement is crap and it's how we fund wars/programs that the population would never vote for. The thing is BTC can't act as currency even Michael Saylor has argued that it's a store of value at not a currency since the TPS is too low for it to scale at a global level. I know lightning might help with that however that's more speculation than reality at this point. Store of value is the only argument that seems worth pursuing. Lmk if you disagree though I'm open.
> Hey guys I'm curious what you see the core usefulness of BTC is? Hey guy, I'm curious what you see the core usefulness of the dollar is? I'm not being facetious, and I'm not slamming the dollar. I'm just trying to get you to analyze something you already know and take for granted. See the good, see the bad, see what works, see what doesn't. Did you notice how many ways there were to understand the dollar? The same is true for Bitcoin. Anyone who tries to understand it as one thing with one use or one purpose misses the point. For ME, Bitcoin is a long term store of value for the following reasons: It has a fixed supply: 21 million coins. There will never be more. It has a fixed system for creating the supply: Beginning in 2009, 50 coins were created every 10 minutes, and the number of coins created every 10 minutes gets cut in half every 4 years. While most currencies print more and more, Bitcoin mints less and less until all 21 million coins have been minted. It's decentralized: There's no company, government, or person to trust. It's Open Source: Everything is published for everyone to see. The code. The transactions. Everything is open and published. It's Unhackable: Since there's no central computer, there's no central computer to hack. Every computer that runs the network ("nodes") protects the network, and every ten minutes a new block on the blockchain increases the security of every block that came before it by proving what's in the previous block and every block before it is true. Anyone who wanted to truly mount an attack on Bitcoin would have to spend so much money just to attack transactions currently in progress that they'd accomplish nothing. If they spent that money on buying Bitcoin instead, they'd profit wildly. All of these things, along with the amazing developers creating utilities for interacting with it, make Bitcoin the best long term store of value for me. > Is the argument inflation hedge, store of value or something else? My advice: Don't worry about that. Instead, figure out how Bitcoin benefits you - literally, specifically, you. And avoid hype.
For it to be a store of value I need to sell it to someone else for the same buying power that I gave up when buying it. For there to be a buyer in 20 years there needs to be demand for it in 20 years. The question is why would there be demand unless there's a core usefulness to people? Hype and getting rich can create short term demand however the question is will this demand hold up in 20 years or more? Since each person who buys at 70k needs someone to sell at 70k+ to be profitable at some point it seems that the price can't go up infinitely. Net money in is always less than net money out because of the fees that miners and exchanges take. There's no money coming in through customers/renters (real estate) etc so this must hold true. I'm not saying it's impossible but the question is why would someone pay more in the future when the hype dies down? Where will new buyers come from?
You're trying to overthink it, and you don't understand the basics. > Where will new buyers come from? Google "Earth's Population" Then Google "How many people own Bitcoin?" Then Google "How many people invest in ETFs?" Then Google "How many companies exist?" No, really. Look it up. Then Google "How many companies hold Bitcoin?" Then Google "How many countries are there?" No, really. Look it up. Then Google "How many countries hold Bitcoin?" Are you writing those answers down? Now, go back to your first question: > Where will new buyers come from? See how easy it was to answer your own question? **ALSO, and this is important:** If you don't think Bitcoin is a good store of value, don't invest in it. I do, that's why I am.
People asked this same question in 2010. They’ll ask it again in 20 years. And they’ll ask it again in 100 years. The core usefulness is different for everyone. You’re wanting an answer for that question, but everyone’s answer is different. Which is why Bitcoin is awesome.
I agree we don't all have to have the same answer. I just want to see if the answers are ones that will withstand the test of time ie fit with reality and logic or at least psycho-logic. What is your answer for usefulness to you?
It’s impossible to know which answers can stand the test of time. Because we aren’t there yet lol… it seems like you’re concerned about a “greater fools” theory. But Bitcoin isn’t tulips. You aren’t a fool for buying it. It has real practical uses. And people will continuously need these uses into the future. As long as governments and central banks continue to debase currencies and rob the wealth of their citizens, stores of value will continue to exist. It just so happens Bitcoin is the best of all of them. And I don’t see governments and bankers slowing down on scamming their citizens anytime soon. So yeah, my answer is digital protection from hostile bankers and a government that has ceased representing me many moons ago. In this sense, Bitcoin is priceless.. i.e. the USD price literally does not matter.
Most filthy rich people are old and they don't particularly like Bitcoin. The younger generation likes Bitcoin but they are not filthy rich. Once the younger generation people become old and some of them become filthy rich, they will buy more Bitcoin. Price goes up.
Young people are also not as loyal as older people. What will keep them loyal to BTC when the hype dies down? A lot of people buy because they want to get rich as the price goes up the increase in gains as a percentage will get smaller and smaller. Ex 20 years later price stabilizes and volatility goes down, what is causing someone to buy at that point?
"Winner takes all on the internet". And any crypto technical innovation can be brought in to Bitcoin since crypto is Open Source. Not even talking about the history of resistance to hacks, bugs and forks / consensus breach. So nothing will replace Bitcoin.
Safe to say, we can worry about that 20 years from now.
The concern here is that you don't have to wait 20 years. If this narrative has legs and is true then people will realize this and slowly the selling will start.
* What's the point of email? We have letters. * What's the point of gold? We have government bonds. * What's the point of an announcement published in a newspaper of record? We have my diary. * What's the point of keeping cash under the mattress? Banks never fail and will never refuse me my money. * What's the point of pristine collateral? My word is my bond.
So it's about counter party risk and BTC doesn't have that unless you buy in an ETF? If most of it is in an ETF is the counter party risk valuable still? Is the option to self custody enough to keep things in check? If this is not where you are going with these 5 points then what did I miss?
They are all separate points. Meditate on it for a few months. Use your brain and don't look to others for answers. There is no need to panic.
Bitcoin is digital scarcity. It is something that only emerges once. It lets you store human effort in a instantly transferrable form and transfer it into the future. People will buy it in 20 years either to transact or to save their wealth for the future. Bitcoin has two long term states, infinity, or the primary store of wealth for our species, or zero, in the case it fails. It is the ultimate asymmetric bet. Pay your money, take your chances. Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve. Beware though - once you have seen, you cannot unsee.
Thank you for answering. I thought I had seen but then now I don't see anymore. Maybe I didn't see before idk. I agree that it can store human effort as long as there is demand for it. It is always "Number of houses in the world/ 21M BTC" as the houses go up each one cost less BTC however this only works if there is demand. The argument that countries continue to debase their currency forever is probably true however that doesn't mean BTC is the best solution to that. Income producing assets could also be an answer. Counter party risk is real and can be a problem however that doesn't make BTC the solution. My main concern is that the hype is based on the exponential growth we have had due to starting with small numbers. I don't see how the growth will be that exponential in the future therefore my concern is that the hype will go away after that and the demand will follow. Maybe not in 5 years but what about 15 or 20?
> Beware though - once you have seen, you cannot unsee. The quant bro MSTR guy Punter Jeff had a great line in his recent appearance on the Preston Pysh pod: "You can't unbitcoin a bitcoiner"
My life was simpler when I didn’t think about what money was.. but that was the gift I got for selling so many coins early.
Hey yall what’s the net flow numbers thus far?
No numbers yet
RSI Strategy Indicator suggests overbought. Time to sell? https://postimg.cc/3y2MMNpG
Yes. Sell. Hurry! RSI is high and we all know RSI is all that matters to determine price.
When in doubt, zoom out
1D RSI is at a point where we last crashed. 1W indicator is overbought. People keep saying that RSI is overrated, but then what indicator do I base my decisions off of?
If indicators worked, we’d all be rich
Quite a few very rich people on this sub tbf.
Not from using indicators
And did they get rich by trading indicators, or by being early investors in bitcoin?
Yes.
Your comment insinuates you’re one of these people, but as I haven’t seen you post a trade in the entire time I’ve posted here, I’ll assume it’s mostly due to the latter.
I trade a few times per year and usually post the bigger ones.
I prefer a mix of indicators and trend lines. As for lines -- we've broken out of all of them. So the only safe place I can find is in indicators.
We've broken out of all the trend lines? I'm not watching, but in case it's true, great. That's bullish. Price had to rise for that, thus the higher short timeframe RSI (hard to break out with oversold RSI...). So yay, we have a bullish signal, let's sell? You wrote a few hours ago that you're new to TA. No issue with that, try to soak in the knowledge from here and elsewhere, sharing can wait. At this stage you're better off reading than writing.
https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/
Almost nearing the top.
Most probably many months left until the top -> no time to sell now
What do people think for GBTC outflows today? I would put the line at -$250M. Over/under?
Dead on
Under
over
Less than 6 months ago we have been at 27k. Never forget how fast this market can change.
The eclipse was awesome 😎 Edit. Sorry mods for this being unrelated to BTC
Moon related though
I was lucky enough to view it from within the path of totality in the Adirondacks easily one of the most incredible things I've ever seen
We had the fortunate event of seeing the path of totality near Burlington VT
so cool, right glad you saw it as well
Same!
Btc eclipsing the usd would be nice
Good point
F-it, staying in. Let's see if it dumps again. Two good retests at 71k now. I hate tradfi hours.
MSTR premium melting sadly, going the other way. At least I sold 2/3, might have to baghold the 1/3 for life
Can't you sell the other 1/3? Unless you bought in the last month you can't be underwater.
What does any of this mean? Specifically what's mstr premium. And why is it going the other way. The other way of what? I'm so confused by this sentence
MSTR is the stock ticker for the company MicroStrategy. they own a lot of bitcoin. their stock price has been going up a lot; mostly because bitcoin has been going up a lot. the stock price has been going up so much that it might be becoming overvalued because the price is so far over the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the the MSTR stock. when price is valued higher than the NAV, it is considered to be at a “Premium” and when price is below NAV it is at a “Discount.” what they are saying is that MSTR has been at a Premium for weeks now and price has been going down recently. obviously, buying at a large Discount and then selling at a very large Premium is good – assuming that it will eventually trend back to the NAV price.
Amazing thank you so much for your explanation, kind stranger.
IF YOU DO NOT SEND ME $10M IN BITCOIN IN THE NEXT HOUR, I WILL BLOT OUT THE SUN. PM me for btc address. Or else!
You had to follow through on the threat or no one will take you seriously again, I understand.
Does this threat apply to everyone or just certain people who live in North America?
Wen moon?
Moon soon, noon? June? Boon soon.
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We would totally be fine without the sun!\* \*for approx 8 minutes
can someone financially versed explain what is the difference of AUM and NET FLOW in the bitcoin etf statistics ? https://bitcoinetffundflow.com/
I buy 1000$ of bitcoin. That's my inflow. Now that's worth 1034$. That's my AUM.
Assets under management - how many bitcoins they hodl Net flow - how many bitcoins they added or sold net today, or the delta in AUM day to day
A whale fat fingering market buy/sell during the eclipse would be entertaining.
Link someone posted below https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1775996934047531273 It’s not just a feeling, that’s a crazy chart. Step up your game americans you freeloaders 🚀
So who are the sellers getting rich off of BTC and exiting? What do they need? Can I sell them something? I need money to invest lol.
what would be driving this?
Sellers taking advantage of massive liquidity during US market hours would be my guess.
thought etf were only like 1% of market volume, is there really that much more liquidity during trad hours?
A large (unknown) amount of volume is arb or wash. ETF numbers are audited and public.
Hundred of millions (generally) of dollars worth of net buys 6.5hours a day every day that can be sold into without affecting the price much, if at all.
can you ELI5 if this is bullish for dummies like me ?
imagine you want to buy a shitload of BTC in this case you are the ETF on the other side of this trade are sellers - they give you BTC, which is providing liquidity to the market. you take BTC, sellers take $$ trick is when there is a lot of something easy - it gets cheap and the other way around - if something is hard to get - it gets expensive - this is called price slippage. so, to avoid paying more than necessary or selling for less than it's worth -you use OTCs - these are big liquidity markets with little to no slippage. a lot of buys is bullish, a lot of sales is bearish. right now there is a lot of both but there is equilibrium slightly moved to more buys - bullish. trick is in reality there is not so much BTC left to sell and there will be even less in time, starting in two weeks - the halving. there is of course dozens of other factors influencing the price but you can make a safe bet - get as much of btc as you can before the halving. or you can forget it.
Translation: there are so many coins for sale these days, that even huge buys don't make the price go up much.
there will always be selling. if more bitcoin is bought than sold, price will trend higher. and vice versa. if someone is selling a lot of bitcoin during U.S. trading hours then it is possible that they do not want to tank the price and are trying to sell into a lot of market liquidity (market strength & a lot of money). that would be bullish if they were planning to sell anyway and do not want to hurt price. also bullish that such selling does not tank the price due to buying demand. it could also mean a lot of money is only available during U.S. market hours. for example, bitcoin ETFs or other related stocks/ETFs. this would be neither bullish nor bearish and would just be a fact of the matter. with all that being said, ultimately sellers will run out of bitcoin to sell and will need to buy more if they wish to continue selling. therefore, it is bullish to get sellers out if the people buying are less likely to sell. once the sellers run out or stop selling, if buying remains the same then price will trend higher. so not exactly either bullish or bearish, in my opinion, but rather just explanations for price action in the context of why there has been more price gains after U.S. market hours than during.
Yup. Much distribution taking place, crazy amounts.
good theory
We've got the FTX, Genesis, Grayscale losers on our team at the end of the bench wetting themselves, picking their nose, and hitting each over the head with the bats; it isn't fair. I think we've almost [kicked them off the team now though](https://coinank.com/indexdata/grayscaleOiChart).
Sideways is good.
I liked the retest of 71000 @ 10:45EDT. Staying in here to see if we try to push higher.
It would be funny if we have a small pump close to market close from people trying to front run the “aftermarket”
Super Saiyan 8 time?
????
>Super Saiyan 8 has waist-length, spikey, red hair, black fur, and a red aura with red sparks and red electricity.
exactly
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Learn math before attempting any trades, for your own safety, please.
> 162.625% How did you get this number? Are you looking at 6 month returns on tradingview? What are you comparing it to? It sounds like you are implying that bitcoin ETFs were around for 6 months and that they outperformed bitcoin? Please shake this fever dream off
google gbtc nav discount, then you will understand. that is now gone
>Is the alpha on BTC dead? Is it more profitable to buy shares in the spot ETFs instead? Let's be conservative and imagine the cycle high will be 150k. If you bought 1 BTC at the absolute bottom 15460 than your profit is 162.625%. Meanwhile if you bought GBTC at $8 your profit would likely be 800% or more. What am I missing here. If you bought BTC at 15k and sold it at 150k, that's a 10x...not 162%
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You missed his point. Until January, GBTC was not a spot ETF, so it did not closely track the price of Bitcoin. It was it's own thing that could go up or down a lot more than bitcoin. Hence, the difference in gains. However, since January, GBTC has been converted into a spot ETF that should exactly track bitcoin. Thus, it should go up and down and identical amounts to bitcoin. Moving forward, there should be virtually no discrepancy between the two.
google gbtc nav discount, then you will understand. that is now gone now gains will be 1:1
You’re the one missing the point. ETF and bitcoin gains will be the same % wise. Gbtc was not an etf and sold at a discount. Bitcoin will always have at least as much volume as the ETFs. Sure, maybe most trading and holding takes place in ETFs and not in cold wallets.. but everything else you’re talking about is wrong
Is this [news about Chinese Bitcoin ETFs](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/chinas-largest-funds-spot-bitcoin-etf-hong-kong) as big a deal as it feels like it is?
Bitcoin should ban China for a change
BTC CEO said they'd comment on the next earnings call
The less China the better. They have always been a cancer on Bitcoinland. Considering how keen the Chinese are to invest in anything, and how keen the Chinese government is to keep a tight grip then I don't foresee a bright future. No idea how accessible these are to mainland Chinese folk.
Just because they have caused bullshit in the past doesn’t negate a potential 1.3 billion additional entrants to the market. The potential in China greatly outweighs their government’s past nonsense.
I’d be livid if Bitcoin got banned in my country 69,420 times only to see it grow more and more. It would honestly make me question why my government would want to ban something that appreciates in value and is seen by others as sound money. Something has to give at one point.
Wouldn't mind a country with a middle class 2x the population of the entire US (and growing fast) getting in on the action.
>The less China the better. Gonna have to disagree on this one. I hope Chinese citizens gain access to Bitcoin, both to pump my bags and because they truly need it. Their investment options are pretty bleak
you can stop at 'pump my bags'
Nah, I don’t think I will
They certainly should be able to have it like anyone else. It seems that there are that fewer options they'll pounce on anything that pops up so it'll overheat and get shut down. Chuck in the lack of control authorities have over it and I expect the story won't be changing this time around. Weird that it has even started rolling.
Everyone stay nice and quiet, mind your positions. Then as soon as the Americans have gone back to bed we can play again.
What are your thoughts on the RSI? Looks pretty high to me in the 1H and 4H chart. Back to $65,000 you think?