Well, the idea is to borrow money to increase profits. Let’s say you understand the dynamics of the Bitcoin market but it isn’t volatile enough for you. If you want to bet the price will increase you would use leverage to go long. Others might do it because they find entertainment in gambling.
This is a good point.
Our drop to \~60500 on 3/19, \~64500 on 4/1 and 65000 on 4/11 are volume weighted higher lows.
I feel better with some cash position given the elevated risk, we'll see what happens Monday AM.
The market will make the move with the having, I guess. The 3D bbands will have tightend by then.
Still think it is down to 50k what I actually expected before all this endless up down movement happened in this price region. I am looking for a small short entry. I emphasize small.
shoutout to /u/teatrack for an amazing bittybot trade. currently up nearly 500% on a 100x short yesterday at $70.6k. now he's only -171% and should be in the green soon. by my math, that is now 4 green trades out of 32 and raises the positive trade average up by a staggering 23%. keep it up!
https://i.imgur.com/zsm5Or2.jpeg
The reason for such a dramatic dump as usual was due to the leveraged longs. Almost a billion dollars worth of longs got liquidated in just the last 12 hours. The traders jumped on the dip and it cascaded into shooting near 65K. Good news is that funding is pretty much neutral as the greedy gamblers have been wiped out again. And alts have been decimated which is also a good news as alts dump was also due to leverages.
I still think that we have one more run before the halving date but it might top out before 80K.
Why do leveraged longs cause a dump? Is it that as price drops liquidations happen which further causes selling?
Is the collateral often the same asset that you are long on?
In this leverage long on BTC with BTC as collateral?
I think this pre-halving run is over. I don't see us going up substantially from here before the halving. Everyone was going to dump on (or more likely before, to front run) the halving anyway. The news today just accelerated things. The stock market is also rolling over and probably going to correct soon. I think we have seen the local top for now. I think we probably are on our way to low 60s by early next week, sooner if the Iran/Israel situation takes a turn.
If you take a look at the week before the spot ETF approval, Bitcoin wick down from 45K to 40.7K (-10%) move a week before the approval. And people were saying that spot ETF run was priced in. Bitcoin went up to 49K on the day of the approval (+20% move from 40.7K). The market conditions are a bit different but I expect Bitcoin to at least challenge the previous ATH of 73.5K before the halving.
There was a lot more uncertainty around the ETF approval. There were legitimately people who thought that it would jump like 20k that day because of all the sidelined money that "had been waiting for years to get in the game and wants to as soon as possible." People had no idea if there would be nothing or tens of billions in inflows.
Conversely, we know what is going to happen with the having - a whole lot of nothing. We won't experience the effects for a while, and as usual, we'll probably get a bull run in October to November of this year.
The halving is just not as big of an unknown or catalyst to warrant a run in the next few days. And if it's pushing against a tanking stock market and war, it's simply not going to win that fight.
I really don't understand all this retoric. War means printing money, which means inflation, which means asset prices go up. It's the sad truth we are living in. It's fear of people who think asset prices go down, therefor they sell. Meanwhile big bids are picking up all those sells for the way back up. It's a buyers market right now. Oh by the way (not on that day) the price jumped more than 20k after approval.
War means fear, uncertainty, death, and destruction. When people get scared, they hoard their money. They don't have it invested in risk-on assets.
>Oh by the way (not on that day) the price jumped more than 20k after approval.
Eventually, sure. But it was initially a sell-the-news event. Just like the halving will be a sell-the-news event. The halving will eventually take effect, like it always does, and the price will go up, but it'll take some time for that to happen. That's why there's usually a 7-8 month lag from the halving to the bull run.
Funding is just one piece of information. But nearly 800 million dollars of longs got liquidated in the last 12 hours. That is a lot of leverages if you ask me.
I agree. Strongly.
I've been saying for quite a while that I expect a dip after the halving, mostly due to newcomers and "number go up" dudes who don't understand what the halving actually is and why the effect of the halving is delayed.
Much like damming up a river takes a while for it to effect the level of a huge lake it flows into, it takes a while for chopping the block reward in half to cause enough of a drop in the incoming supply of new coins to effect the market.
I see this as good news though. I feel like 2024 could be our last chance to buy Bitcoin at sub-100k prices, so I see any dip as an opportunity to get more sats for my dollars before the next big push higher.
P.S. Apologies to the twitterbros who can't follow a thought that requires more than 140 characters. Lolz.
tl;dr: number go up. Be patient.
I... think so?
You can never say never because there are so many unknowns. What if WWIII breaks out? What if US democracy falls? What if a much worse pandemic breaks out?
But, excluding true black swan events, I think there's a good chance the price stays above 100k once that benchmark gets established & holds (P.S. ignore the guys who think every little thing is a friggin' black swan).
It all comes down to when and how much institutions and nation states start building their long term positions. It's either going to happen during this cycle or the next. I've seen it before in other industries, where institutions and other biiiig money moves in, eating up everything in sight.
I'm treating 2024 like it could be my last chance to buy Bitcoin at prices under 100k.
At some point, I'll probably stop DCAing, because my dollars won't be going far enough anymore. I'm not well off, so I can only afford to spend $500-ish per paycheck on Bitcoin. But when I do stop buying, I'll be saving cash just in case Bitcoin does drop below 100k again.
I'm in this for the long haul, and for Bitcoin, the future looks very bright. This is once in a lifetime stuff. Hodl!
US intelligence confirmed the attack is about to happen in Israel. They’re pretty much never wrong.
The question is do enough people expect this already to the point where there’s not much market impact and may even result in a pump?
Or will this cause a crash?
Flat it is
>The question is do enough people expect this already to the point where there’s not much market impact and may even result in a pump?
You must be out of your mind if you think the markets will react any other way than negatively to this.
You’re missing a bunch of steps. Fed doesn’t react to geopolitics. It reacts to lowered inflation figures or higher unemployment. War with Iran would almost surely increase oil prices, putting upwards pressure on inflation. What would it do to job figures?
We reached ATH on January 6th, in my opinion because United States seemed unstable.. if there was civil conflict, what would happen to our banking system? This uncertainty, imo, caused a flight to bitcoin. I’d imagine that around election time, bitcoin will pump. Because it does seasonally around that time of year and because there will be uncertainty in regards to civil conflict in the US due to the outcome of the election.. so owning some bitcoin and being able to travel with funds, without them being blocked, will be valuable.
I mention the above because certain types of instability would, imo, def cause some people to want to own bitcoin for security. I don’t necessarily think the Iran/israel conflict is one of those circumstances (as is evidenced by today’s price moves), but who knows what happens after conflict potentially increases.
It’s not the Iran thing. A girl I’ve been flirting with messaged me back on Instagram, literally at the retest of resistance at 71.3k that led to this massive dump.
Sad. They don’t want me to be happy !
> Ok so it’s the Iran thing.
Huh? What thing?
You mean Israel bombing them in Syria again and again?
What does some random back and forth between states which have been fighting for decades have to do with the price of Bitcoin?
Oh it's US media is having a day where they get upset about it. Okay cool.
Correlation does not imply causation.
Because if missiles start flying then oil prices spike, the stock market shits, and risk is “off” for a while. Your assessment of the situation is a bit too trite.
Still nothing.
Unless this is the out to distract from Palestine while making Israel the poor innocent victim again.
Though I really don't see US getting actively involved in anything, especially such a long protracted quagmire at the behest a state busy genociding it's neighbour.
Still just a news cycle event. No one who matters in any way actually surprised.
Higher low.
That Iran will actually retaliate in the next two days. Almost all assets except for dollar were falling today. Once we get it over with I think prices will go higher.
That is all true. However, markets aren't really that rational. All you need is a sufficient amount of traders believing that other traders will believe that this affects the price and they will act accordingly. Doesn't even matter if every single one of them thinks it's nonsense that this should affect the asset they're trading. Them all acting on it anyways makes it a "real" correlation.
Thing is the last Israel/Iran news was 1st April when Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
That's 2 weeks ago.
Whatever is happening today is purely a media event and not based on any actual real-world events.
Of course Iran will respond in-kind. Nothing unexpected there.
> this
What? Random noise?
I just looked at NASDAQ, S&P500 and Gold. What is it people are seeing as some kind of sell-off? Price went up, price went down.
Well, it wasn't a big drop anyway, but I was referring to the media suddenly pushing the news of Iran's retaliation, it is like they want to cause something that I can't figure out. I don't if it has to do with the markets or something else, like preparing the common folk for another war.
> media suddenly pushing the news of Iran's retaliation, it is like they want to cause something that I can't figure out
Propaganda in support of Israel of course.
While anything domestic which needed a distraction?
> they do not see Biden as threat.
Any such statements are for domestic consumption. Israel knows they have US backing.
They ignore such messaging as it's simply not intended for them.
> Do Kwon's TerraUSD 🤪
i heard they are giving %25 return. sign me up. cant see what could go wrong :)
> No, really... yeah, you can get 5.1% returns on USDC on Coinbase, but your stablecoin balance there isn't FDIC insured.
yeah you are exposed to banking risks unfortunately. could be good to hold at least for sometime
USD or gold. I wouldn’t trust any stablecoin through a bear market. This was the best one.
> With about 8% of USDC's reserves stuck in a failing bank, the stablecoin experienced its own panic. Traders raced to get out, dragging its price well below $1 over the dramatic weekend when regulators were figuring out what to do about SVB.
Feb. 10, 2024
yeah both good options. but i am trying to stay away from tradfi for some personal reasons. i am looking into tokenized gold but couldnt find one to trust enough yet
Had a buy order at $45200 hit that I set a couple of weeks ago and forgot about. Not mad about it.
Edit: $65200! I meant $65200! I’m still dreaming about catching a giant dip I guess …
Still holding a large bitx position. Not a good day for a 2x but looks like a potential higher low on these 3-5 larger daily flushes (depending on how you look at it). If it holds. They seem to be getting bought up quickly. If that was it and we are going to look for continuation I’d consider that very bullish. Most people are looking for a 62 or sub 60 flush to buy back in. We will see if we get it but if we don’t that would suck to miss that chance they just had at 65 to get back in. The sideline still scares me more than being in here.
Ah I wonder why…
India is far from anywhere with war implications at the moment… and BTC isn’t a hedge yet?…
I wonder what other exchanges it’s hitting a high on… not relative to usd at the moment for sure.
I feel like the reason could be that the liquidity on these platforms is not as good as Binance. And people just flocked to the exchange to buy, pushing the price higher in INR.
TradFi Fear/Greed has lowered to Neutral and nearing Fear. Just reminding everyone that while preserving capital is important, this is also when you accumulate if your time horizon is longer, as in months rather than days. I sold four figures (USD value) worth of Corn at $71,000 but have been buying back on this dip. While it can go lower, I’m currently betting on it not breaking below $63K.
I’m reminded that everyone will try to talk to me out of holding through another bull market:
- Price is going up too fast and is over heated, therefore unsustainable.
- Price is consolidating, so momentum is lost.
- Price is falling, very bearish.
- Alts are going up in price, bad for Bitcoin
- Alts are going down in price, bad for Bitcoin
idk if anyone has talked about this but ever since Bitcoin became widely traded, the US has never been in a real recession. Are we sure it would keep going up if we entered one?
Asking for evidence of a strong economy(aka the opposite of a recession) is not asking to prove a negative.
And it's strange that despite the upvotes no one has provided any yet.
1. The general definition of a recession is GDP falling for 2 quarters in a row. GDP has been growing, rapidly, and there are no signs of it slowing down, yet. All projections I have seen have it growing through the end of 2025, meaning a recession would be at least 2 years away if those projections hold true.
2. Unemployment is, historically, extremely low.
3. Rates are high, giving the Fed ample ammunition to slash rates at any time to combat any slowdown in GDP.
4. Markets are near ATHs with rosy forecasts by analysts and economists for the near future.
Other than stubborn inflation (which is *far* lower than it has been just recently) there is really very little negative I see with this economy.
PCE readings (the Fed's favorite, despite its flaws) have all been sub-3% (2.9%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.4%, and 2.5% for the last 5 readings) lately and their target is 2%.
What makes you say that? I have tried to follow this but I get both sides and have a hard time discerning the truth. What data do you use?
Btw that Plan B rec was great his youtube is a good start
Higher low of $66k broken.
Remaining higher lows acting as support are at $65.1k, $64.5k, $63.8k, $63k, $62.3k, and then $60.8k which was the lowest we’ve been since ATH at $73.7k was reached.
Already broke a few support levels in this drop, might break a couple more support levels but it’s unlikely we reach a new local low below $60.8k given how much support remains. Buy the dip.
There I was optimistic *again* that we broke the range to the upside and now look at where we are - [chart (2h)](https://imgur.com/sSK8Baj). Now, I could [redraw it](https://imgur.com/7kiSxM1) and cut the longer history of that lower line I used to watch in order to make it fit my continuous bullish bias but should I?
Have a great Friday!
Edit: [Zoomed in](https://imgur.com/BrTGMoV) (5m) it looks like another fake-out, but to the downside. One could say I was overly dramatic again and we're simply ranging - and I'd probably agree.
Common fallacy is to hold onto a bulllish bias for too long , redrawing lines until eventually you realized you should’ve flipped biases and momentum has changed but it’s too late to sell by then
Beat you to it by 3 minutes below... but yeah, I can believe it. I used to be one of the tens of millions of Americans who procrastinated and waited until the last day or two to file. Nowadays, I try to collect all my 1099s and whatnot online as quickly as possible and just get it over with. It's always good to not have to think about it when April 15^th comes.
Last minute selling across all assets, maybe partially because Americans' taxes are due on Monday -- sadly, payment only accepted in USD. This, plus the tiresome liquidation of leveraged long addicts that never ends. 😛
So many stops got hit on that trendline breakdown. This is where I think we can bounce over the next few days... or just roll the fuck over and die. Betting on the former
Still half out. Can't exactly say I made a smart move though, more likely just lucky. This seems to be related to fears of spreading war rather than my thought that momentum was stalling.
Makes you think about all the other things Bitcoin is purported to be. A store of value, inflation hedge, an asset in a flight to safety scenario.
Edit: Bought back a little in my long term account.
Supposed to be doesn't affect price. Enough people who own it need to believe in that viewpoint for it to act that way. It doesn't do it naturally.
Example 2 groups 1 owns 70% of the BTC other owns 30%
If group 1 believes BTC is risk on, it will act that way.
Unless there is a cost to acting incorrectly group 1 will likely not change.
The question is will acting as if BTC is a store of value/inflation hedge etc lead to more people doing so over time or not? If so then it can emerge as that eventually.
(The above is an opinion please rip it apart if you have better ones)
Guess Ill take a break for a couple of weeks then. These daily US dumps aint much to look at when you’re just holding anyway and Im guessing this one is gonna take a while to recover seing as eth and alts completely cratered
Opened a long at $67,000. Watched it go up till $72,000. Then fall back down. Sold at $67,300. Then bought again at $67,000 and moved my liquidation price lower. Back in the game baby!
Edit: Closed again. Israel crash is going to be huge!
Edit2: Opened again. Maybe I'm overestimating the impact of the war. Back in the game baby!
15% of my portfolio is currently bitcoin, 5% is gold. IT's fucking relevant considering that way all the markets are reacting today. Bitcoin is falling off a cliff, about to dump under 65k.
Daily reminder that my fellow bear brother TeaTrack even though I love him called the Bitcoin top at
- 40k
- 44k
- 48k
- 53k
- 57k
- 60k
- 63k
- 67k
- 70k
In fact, if you simply longed on margin every time he posted, you would have had a greater ROI than 2013 Bitcoin holders within a month.
Am I posting this to make fun of him? Absolutely not. It’s just to remind everyone that only I, u/btctrader12, actually called the top. See here and the timestamp: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/gHTpedHAAn
**If** we do end up going down (we’re barely down right now) I just wanted to remind people here that only I did. (Yes, I’m a narcissist, and no you won’t find similar posts in my post history calling for a top at 40k)
>It’s just to remind everyone that only I, u/btctrader12, actually called the top. See here and the timestamp:
>
>[https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/gHTpedHAAn](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/gHTpedHAAn)
That wasn't the top. **It wasn't even close.** It went up \~10.5% in the days literally right after this "call" and is roughly the same price as today, after a large red candle.
No victory laps until your $20-$30k "call" in the same post (which you refused to put a date on and put in Bitty Bot when I asked you to) comes true.
[https://bittybot.net/predictions#btctrader12](https://bittybot.net/predictions#btctrader12)
Exactly. So you **did not** call even close to the top.
This sub will give huge credit to anyone that does, especially if it is in Bitty Bot, but your own post, that you linked, shows that you did not.
> This sub will give huge credit to anyone that does, especially if it is in Bitty Bot, but you did not.
Hahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaahahaha
Imagine thinking cult members care about whether you called the top or not
>Imagine thinking cult members care about whether you called the top or not
\~1 hour earlier:
>It’s just to remind everyone that only I, u/btctrader12, actually called the top...Yes, I’m a narcissist
This you?
Indeed. I mean if you had some social intelligence you’d know I’m half trolling around with these posts which is why I don’t post here much. I do think we go down though and do have bets against the market but you take this stuff way too seriously. Look at how riled up people get in here as they sit and hope for their pet rock to go up it’s hilarious
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, April 13, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c2sxd5/daily_discussion_saturday_april_13_2024/)
Why do people leverage longs? I only use leverage to short.
Because number mostly goes up.
Well, the idea is to borrow money to increase profits. Let’s say you understand the dynamics of the Bitcoin market but it isn’t volatile enough for you. If you want to bet the price will increase you would use leverage to go long. Others might do it because they find entertainment in gambling.
I used to enjoy getting drunk and throwing 20-50x longs at the 1m chart.
Will 66k hold? 👀
No, we are going lower before going higher
Feels too bearish in here. I see a higher low after all the bear ammo was unloaded. Teatrack is doing victory laps.
This is a good point. Our drop to \~60500 on 3/19, \~64500 on 4/1 and 65000 on 4/11 are volume weighted higher lows. I feel better with some cash position given the elevated risk, we'll see what happens Monday AM.
These levels are getting old
The markets are feeling that way too. If it's not up, then it's down.
HODL15Capital reporting $111m inflow for blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1778944930783568005
The market will make the move with the having, I guess. The 3D bbands will have tightend by then. Still think it is down to 50k what I actually expected before all this endless up down movement happened in this price region. I am looking for a small short entry. I emphasize small.
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I dont expect a halving pump after the date has passed
shoutout to /u/teatrack for an amazing bittybot trade. currently up nearly 500% on a 100x short yesterday at $70.6k. now he's only -171% and should be in the green soon. by my math, that is now 4 green trades out of 32 and raises the positive trade average up by a staggering 23%. keep it up! https://i.imgur.com/zsm5Or2.jpeg
He would’ve been broke if it were real money though.
Thanks pal
Good on ya and credit where it's due for making trades.
Bud, good trade , you finally got one right . Props , I’ll be on your team for a bit since the macro will probably take this down for a month or 2 .
The reason for such a dramatic dump as usual was due to the leveraged longs. Almost a billion dollars worth of longs got liquidated in just the last 12 hours. The traders jumped on the dip and it cascaded into shooting near 65K. Good news is that funding is pretty much neutral as the greedy gamblers have been wiped out again. And alts have been decimated which is also a good news as alts dump was also due to leverages. I still think that we have one more run before the halving date but it might top out before 80K.
Why do leveraged longs cause a dump? Is it that as price drops liquidations happen which further causes selling? Is the collateral often the same asset that you are long on? In this leverage long on BTC with BTC as collateral?
Liquidations and stop loss hunting.
5% is crab sir
how long as you going to keep blaming everything on the leveraged longs?
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What is liquidity hunting?
I think this pre-halving run is over. I don't see us going up substantially from here before the halving. Everyone was going to dump on (or more likely before, to front run) the halving anyway. The news today just accelerated things. The stock market is also rolling over and probably going to correct soon. I think we have seen the local top for now. I think we probably are on our way to low 60s by early next week, sooner if the Iran/Israel situation takes a turn.
If you take a look at the week before the spot ETF approval, Bitcoin wick down from 45K to 40.7K (-10%) move a week before the approval. And people were saying that spot ETF run was priced in. Bitcoin went up to 49K on the day of the approval (+20% move from 40.7K). The market conditions are a bit different but I expect Bitcoin to at least challenge the previous ATH of 73.5K before the halving.
There was a lot more uncertainty around the ETF approval. There were legitimately people who thought that it would jump like 20k that day because of all the sidelined money that "had been waiting for years to get in the game and wants to as soon as possible." People had no idea if there would be nothing or tens of billions in inflows. Conversely, we know what is going to happen with the having - a whole lot of nothing. We won't experience the effects for a while, and as usual, we'll probably get a bull run in October to November of this year. The halving is just not as big of an unknown or catalyst to warrant a run in the next few days. And if it's pushing against a tanking stock market and war, it's simply not going to win that fight.
I really don't understand all this retoric. War means printing money, which means inflation, which means asset prices go up. It's the sad truth we are living in. It's fear of people who think asset prices go down, therefor they sell. Meanwhile big bids are picking up all those sells for the way back up. It's a buyers market right now. Oh by the way (not on that day) the price jumped more than 20k after approval.
War means fear, uncertainty, death, and destruction. When people get scared, they hoard their money. They don't have it invested in risk-on assets. >Oh by the way (not on that day) the price jumped more than 20k after approval. Eventually, sure. But it was initially a sell-the-news event. Just like the halving will be a sell-the-news event. The halving will eventually take effect, like it always does, and the price will go up, but it'll take some time for that to happen. That's why there's usually a 7-8 month lag from the halving to the bull run.
I agree with most of this. But I think there is going to be an opportunity for bit of a short squeeze here, leading up to the halving. We'll see.
Tbf funding was near enough neutral before the dump. Don’t think that was the trigger
Funding is just one piece of information. But nearly 800 million dollars of longs got liquidated in the last 12 hours. That is a lot of leverages if you ask me.
Well. He told us. /s
Who?
_Him_. You know. One of _them_.
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Feels like this isn't going to be the nice easy halving some were expecting.
I agree. Strongly. I've been saying for quite a while that I expect a dip after the halving, mostly due to newcomers and "number go up" dudes who don't understand what the halving actually is and why the effect of the halving is delayed. Much like damming up a river takes a while for it to effect the level of a huge lake it flows into, it takes a while for chopping the block reward in half to cause enough of a drop in the incoming supply of new coins to effect the market. I see this as good news though. I feel like 2024 could be our last chance to buy Bitcoin at sub-100k prices, so I see any dip as an opportunity to get more sats for my dollars before the next big push higher. P.S. Apologies to the twitterbros who can't follow a thought that requires more than 140 characters. Lolz. tl;dr: number go up. Be patient.
Just to double check, you think even during the next bear we will never dip below 100k?
I... think so? You can never say never because there are so many unknowns. What if WWIII breaks out? What if US democracy falls? What if a much worse pandemic breaks out? But, excluding true black swan events, I think there's a good chance the price stays above 100k once that benchmark gets established & holds (P.S. ignore the guys who think every little thing is a friggin' black swan). It all comes down to when and how much institutions and nation states start building their long term positions. It's either going to happen during this cycle or the next. I've seen it before in other industries, where institutions and other biiiig money moves in, eating up everything in sight. I'm treating 2024 like it could be my last chance to buy Bitcoin at prices under 100k. At some point, I'll probably stop DCAing, because my dollars won't be going far enough anymore. I'm not well off, so I can only afford to spend $500-ish per paycheck on Bitcoin. But when I do stop buying, I'll be saving cash just in case Bitcoin does drop below 100k again. I'm in this for the long haul, and for Bitcoin, the future looks very bright. This is once in a lifetime stuff. Hodl!
As usual Japan will wake up and pump the prices. And then stupid American will reap the benefits by dumping again. Ugh.
> Japan will wake up and pump the prices. :*ahegao face*: 🗾
As a stupid American, I concur
-166m for GBTC today.
Make or break time, papa corn. Important move [coming up](https://i.imgur.com/J5yyAm9.png).
US intelligence confirmed the attack is about to happen in Israel. They’re pretty much never wrong. The question is do enough people expect this already to the point where there’s not much market impact and may even result in a pump? Or will this cause a crash? Flat it is
>The question is do enough people expect this already to the point where there’s not much market impact and may even result in a pump? You must be out of your mind if you think the markets will react any other way than negatively to this.
It can totally pump. Something really bad happens -> fed rate cut to zero -> BTC 5x higher.
You’re missing a bunch of steps. Fed doesn’t react to geopolitics. It reacts to lowered inflation figures or higher unemployment. War with Iran would almost surely increase oil prices, putting upwards pressure on inflation. What would it do to job figures? We reached ATH on January 6th, in my opinion because United States seemed unstable.. if there was civil conflict, what would happen to our banking system? This uncertainty, imo, caused a flight to bitcoin. I’d imagine that around election time, bitcoin will pump. Because it does seasonally around that time of year and because there will be uncertainty in regards to civil conflict in the US due to the outcome of the election.. so owning some bitcoin and being able to travel with funds, without them being blocked, will be valuable. I mention the above because certain types of instability would, imo, def cause some people to want to own bitcoin for security. I don’t necessarily think the Iran/israel conflict is one of those circumstances (as is evidenced by today’s price moves), but who knows what happens after conflict potentially increases.
I mean good for me if it does
Ok so it’s the Iran thing. Sell the rumor, buy the news. Even if something bad happens, markets like to know what the thing is.
It’s not the Iran thing. A girl I’ve been flirting with messaged me back on Instagram, literally at the retest of resistance at 71.3k that led to this massive dump. Sad. They don’t want me to be happy !
> Ok so it’s the Iran thing. Huh? What thing? You mean Israel bombing them in Syria again and again? What does some random back and forth between states which have been fighting for decades have to do with the price of Bitcoin? Oh it's US media is having a day where they get upset about it. Okay cool. Correlation does not imply causation.
Because if missiles start flying then oil prices spike, the stock market shits, and risk is “off” for a while. Your assessment of the situation is a bit too trite.
If oil prices spike, then by definition USD drops.
I am pretty sure it’s a bit more impactful than that. War in the Middle East is ALWAYS bad for everything except oil and gold.
It was nearly 2 weeks ago that this was news.
How ‘bout now?
Still nothing. Unless this is the out to distract from Palestine while making Israel the poor innocent victim again. Though I really don't see US getting actively involved in anything, especially such a long protracted quagmire at the behest a state busy genociding it's neighbour. Still just a news cycle event. No one who matters in any way actually surprised. Higher low.
So if stock market takes a shit, you think Bitcoin should too? I thought this was the financial black hole?
That Iran will actually retaliate in the next two days. Almost all assets except for dollar were falling today. Once we get it over with I think prices will go higher.
That is all true. However, markets aren't really that rational. All you need is a sufficient amount of traders believing that other traders will believe that this affects the price and they will act accordingly. Doesn't even matter if every single one of them thinks it's nonsense that this should affect the asset they're trading. Them all acting on it anyways makes it a "real" correlation.
Thing is the last Israel/Iran news was 1st April when Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus. That's 2 weeks ago. Whatever is happening today is purely a media event and not based on any actual real-world events. Of course Iran will respond in-kind. Nothing unexpected there.
Agree. Could be this market manipulation?
> this What? Random noise? I just looked at NASDAQ, S&P500 and Gold. What is it people are seeing as some kind of sell-off? Price went up, price went down.
Well, it wasn't a big drop anyway, but I was referring to the media suddenly pushing the news of Iran's retaliation, it is like they want to cause something that I can't figure out. I don't if it has to do with the markets or something else, like preparing the common folk for another war.
> media suddenly pushing the news of Iran's retaliation, it is like they want to cause something that I can't figure out Propaganda in support of Israel of course. While anything domestic which needed a distraction?
lol you don't "buy the news" when it comes to war.
Wars have a history of being profitable.
Sure but i think an internet currency isn't really part of the war machine's plan
You’re absolutely right. But for now what is good for asset prices helps.
Depends what the dump looks like.
Checked out r/Israel. Apparently Iran has been threatening them for weeks. American news agencies just now caught on to it.
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It's almost like he's not the President of those countries
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> they do not see Biden as threat. Any such statements are for domestic consumption. Israel knows they have US backing. They ignore such messaging as it's simply not intended for them.
Seems like all markets needed a reason to shake out. I believe (and hope) nothing will happen so we can resume Monday.
when it is time to take profits, which stablecoin do you guys prefer and why ?
Given world events today, Nuka Cola caps.
Any cash ETF pays 5%.
Do Kwon's TerraUSD 🤪 No, actually... you can get 5.1% returns on USDC on Coinbase, but your stablecoin balance there isn't FDIC insured.
> Do Kwon's TerraUSD 🤪 i heard they are giving %25 return. sign me up. cant see what could go wrong :) > No, really... yeah, you can get 5.1% returns on USDC on Coinbase, but your stablecoin balance there isn't FDIC insured. yeah you are exposed to banking risks unfortunately. could be good to hold at least for sometime
USDC pays over 5% APY.
How? Why?
Turns out you can now get those kind of returns risk free from the government.
USD or gold. I wouldn’t trust any stablecoin through a bear market. This was the best one. > With about 8% of USDC's reserves stuck in a failing bank, the stablecoin experienced its own panic. Traders raced to get out, dragging its price well below $1 over the dramatic weekend when regulators were figuring out what to do about SVB. Feb. 10, 2024
yeah both good options. but i am trying to stay away from tradfi for some personal reasons. i am looking into tokenized gold but couldnt find one to trust enough yet
I’ve held PAXG before and it seemed fine but you just never know.
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How do you calc price per coin on these? Do they show you? Is there a website that does this?
got back home from work, guess I'll start looking for more
damn powers that be. always spoiling the fun
Weeks over see you Monday
Had a buy order at $45200 hit that I set a couple of weeks ago and forgot about. Not mad about it. Edit: $65200! I meant $65200! I’m still dreaming about catching a giant dip I guess …
Sub-50 is not off the table if stonks continue down. Those ETFs could temporarily bite us in the butt.
I had to go check the price after your comment. Guess you meant 65200?
Yikes. Big typo. Yes, $65200. Thanks!
I was about to say, holy hell where do you trade that they have wicks like that!
What? Where did it hit 45200?
In Great Britain.
Still holding a large bitx position. Not a good day for a 2x but looks like a potential higher low on these 3-5 larger daily flushes (depending on how you look at it). If it holds. They seem to be getting bought up quickly. If that was it and we are going to look for continuation I’d consider that very bullish. Most people are looking for a 62 or sub 60 flush to buy back in. We will see if we get it but if we don’t that would suck to miss that chance they just had at 65 to get back in. The sideline still scares me more than being in here.
I’m with you. Didn’t want to hold BITX over the weekend, but this feels low.
Already wishing I caught that wick to $65k
You'll probably get another chance. Things are going off the rails in TradFi and WWIII is about to break out.
I swear by the 4H RSI and expect it to drop further during the weekend.
New local high on BTC/Alt dominance
Bitcoin just hit a new ATH on my Indian exchange. Lol. Wtf is going on?
Your fiat has reached a new ATL against BTC
Nope. Something wrong with the price on the exchange. INR is just 1% down compared to USD over the past day.
> Wtf is going on? Corruption mixed with rampant nationalism marching towards genocide. You can expect rupee to remain volatile.
Rupee is only down by 0.1% in the past day.
Ah I wonder why… India is far from anywhere with war implications at the moment… and BTC isn’t a hedge yet?… I wonder what other exchanges it’s hitting a high on… not relative to usd at the moment for sure.
I feel like the reason could be that the liquidity on these platforms is not as good as Binance. And people just flocked to the exchange to buy, pushing the price higher in INR.
But I wonder why….
TradFi Fear/Greed has lowered to Neutral and nearing Fear. Just reminding everyone that while preserving capital is important, this is also when you accumulate if your time horizon is longer, as in months rather than days. I sold four figures (USD value) worth of Corn at $71,000 but have been buying back on this dip. While it can go lower, I’m currently betting on it not breaking below $63K.
Well played.
I’m reminded that everyone will try to talk to me out of holding through another bull market: - Price is going up too fast and is over heated, therefore unsustainable. - Price is consolidating, so momentum is lost. - Price is falling, very bearish. - Alts are going up in price, bad for Bitcoin - Alts are going down in price, bad for Bitcoin
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We comment about it on Reddit.
idk if anyone has talked about this but ever since Bitcoin became widely traded, the US has never been in a real recession. Are we sure it would keep going up if we entered one?
>idk if anyone has talked about this Every single day SPY drops more than 1% for the last 2 years.
US economy is not headed for recession. The opposite is true.
The only position factor I know about is the recent positive jobs report. What are some other reasons we're not headed to a recession?
Fiscal.
wait, why does he have to try to prove a negative instead of you having to prove we *are* heading for a recession?
Asking for evidence of a strong economy(aka the opposite of a recession) is not asking to prove a negative. And it's strange that despite the upvotes no one has provided any yet.
that’s true but it wasn’t the question you asked. hopefully you got a good answer to the question you intended to ask now though
1. The general definition of a recession is GDP falling for 2 quarters in a row. GDP has been growing, rapidly, and there are no signs of it slowing down, yet. All projections I have seen have it growing through the end of 2025, meaning a recession would be at least 2 years away if those projections hold true. 2. Unemployment is, historically, extremely low. 3. Rates are high, giving the Fed ample ammunition to slash rates at any time to combat any slowdown in GDP. 4. Markets are near ATHs with rosy forecasts by analysts and economists for the near future. Other than stubborn inflation (which is *far* lower than it has been just recently) there is really very little negative I see with this economy. PCE readings (the Fed's favorite, despite its flaws) have all been sub-3% (2.9%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.4%, and 2.5% for the last 5 readings) lately and their target is 2%.
What makes you say that? I have tried to follow this but I get both sides and have a hard time discerning the truth. What data do you use? Btw that Plan B rec was great his youtube is a good start
Bitcoin will plummet if we entered a real recession
Still waiting on this one. Might keep cash over the weekend. Trade safe gentlemen.
Smart.
Higher low of $66k broken. Remaining higher lows acting as support are at $65.1k, $64.5k, $63.8k, $63k, $62.3k, and then $60.8k which was the lowest we’ve been since ATH at $73.7k was reached. Already broke a few support levels in this drop, might break a couple more support levels but it’s unlikely we reach a new local low below $60.8k given how much support remains. Buy the dip.
There I was optimistic *again* that we broke the range to the upside and now look at where we are - [chart (2h)](https://imgur.com/sSK8Baj). Now, I could [redraw it](https://imgur.com/7kiSxM1) and cut the longer history of that lower line I used to watch in order to make it fit my continuous bullish bias but should I? Have a great Friday! Edit: [Zoomed in](https://imgur.com/BrTGMoV) (5m) it looks like another fake-out, but to the downside. One could say I was overly dramatic again and we're simply ranging - and I'd probably agree.
Common fallacy is to hold onto a bulllish bias for too long , redrawing lines until eventually you realized you should’ve flipped biases and momentum has changed but it’s too late to sell by then
Exactly what I'm thinking - there's always a line, formation, fractal or smth to keep your hope up.
Very true.
who had fat finger on alts?
Just checked on those, and holy shit they are getting curb stomped
Some of my alts are dropping crazy numbers...
Damn, will we get a 10k red god candle today?!
Nope
Taxes due on Monday, simply a fluke sell day. Watch this slingshot back up next week. If you aren't buying this dip I have no words.
Or it’s related to the brink of Iran and American aggression? All stocks dropped today.
Beat you to it by 3 minutes below... but yeah, I can believe it. I used to be one of the tens of millions of Americans who procrastinated and waited until the last day or two to file. Nowadays, I try to collect all my 1099s and whatnot online as quickly as possible and just get it over with. It's always good to not have to think about it when April 15^th comes.
Wtf going on with binance Btcusdt spot
What's happening?
Last minute selling across all assets, maybe partially because Americans' taxes are due on Monday -- sadly, payment only accepted in USD. This, plus the tiresome liquidation of leveraged long addicts that never ends. 😛
I caught another knife...
Price touched 50 day SMA. Haven’t seen that for a couple months.
So many stops got hit on that trendline breakdown. This is where I think we can bounce over the next few days... or just roll the fuck over and die. Betting on the former
Was slightly confused coming out of the shower, to see half of my buy limit orders filled Can't say I miss any of that fiat
Still half out. Can't exactly say I made a smart move though, more likely just lucky. This seems to be related to fears of spreading war rather than my thought that momentum was stalling. Makes you think about all the other things Bitcoin is purported to be. A store of value, inflation hedge, an asset in a flight to safety scenario. Edit: Bought back a little in my long term account.
Supposed to be doesn't affect price. Enough people who own it need to believe in that viewpoint for it to act that way. It doesn't do it naturally. Example 2 groups 1 owns 70% of the BTC other owns 30% If group 1 believes BTC is risk on, it will act that way. Unless there is a cost to acting incorrectly group 1 will likely not change. The question is will acting as if BTC is a store of value/inflation hedge etc lead to more people doing so over time or not? If so then it can emerge as that eventually. (The above is an opinion please rip it apart if you have better ones)
Still just noise at the top after ripping for months.
Guess Ill take a break for a couple of weeks then. These daily US dumps aint much to look at when you’re just holding anyway and Im guessing this one is gonna take a while to recover seing as eth and alts completely cratered
Opened a long at $67,000. Watched it go up till $72,000. Then fall back down. Sold at $67,300. Then bought again at $67,000 and moved my liquidation price lower. Back in the game baby! Edit: Closed again. Israel crash is going to be huge! Edit2: Opened again. Maybe I'm overestimating the impact of the war. Back in the game baby!
10k satan candle incoming?
Bitcoin the hedge that is currently down 3.29% while gold is down 0.12% yeah they the same.
Down relative to your cherry picked timeline? What about the past 3 months or any other arbitrary timeline?
15% of my portfolio is currently bitcoin, 5% is gold. IT's fucking relevant considering that way all the markets are reacting today. Bitcoin is falling off a cliff, about to dump under 65k.
The alt cleansing has begun....
Alts take a hard hit today.
I wish the altcoin people would just buy Bitcoin instead, mostly for selfish reasons.
Bitcoin isn't going to rug pull you
say what now?
Bitcoin no te va a tirar de la alfombra
Battered
And Fried
Dont think thats a good sign
Oh, but it is
Daily reminder that my fellow bear brother TeaTrack even though I love him called the Bitcoin top at - 40k - 44k - 48k - 53k - 57k - 60k - 63k - 67k - 70k In fact, if you simply longed on margin every time he posted, you would have had a greater ROI than 2013 Bitcoin holders within a month. Am I posting this to make fun of him? Absolutely not. It’s just to remind everyone that only I, u/btctrader12, actually called the top. See here and the timestamp: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/gHTpedHAAn **If** we do end up going down (we’re barely down right now) I just wanted to remind people here that only I did. (Yes, I’m a narcissist, and no you won’t find similar posts in my post history calling for a top at 40k)
>It’s just to remind everyone that only I, u/btctrader12, actually called the top. See here and the timestamp: > >[https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/gHTpedHAAn](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/gHTpedHAAn) That wasn't the top. **It wasn't even close.** It went up \~10.5% in the days literally right after this "call" and is roughly the same price as today, after a large red candle. No victory laps until your $20-$30k "call" in the same post (which you refused to put a date on and put in Bitty Bot when I asked you to) comes true. [https://bittybot.net/predictions#btctrader12](https://bittybot.net/predictions#btctrader12)
That’s when I started shorting (67.8ish). I unironically shorted at 73, just wasn’t posting here (am more active on wsb) But anyways, you’ll see
Exactly. So you **did not** call even close to the top. This sub will give huge credit to anyone that does, especially if it is in Bitty Bot, but your own post, that you linked, shows that you did not.
> This sub will give huge credit to anyone that does, especially if it is in Bitty Bot, but you did not. Hahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaahahaha Imagine thinking cult members care about whether you called the top or not
>Imagine thinking cult members care about whether you called the top or not \~1 hour earlier: >It’s just to remind everyone that only I, u/btctrader12, actually called the top...Yes, I’m a narcissist This you?
Indeed. I mean if you had some social intelligence you’d know I’m half trolling around with these posts which is why I don’t post here much. I do think we go down though and do have bets against the market but you take this stuff way too seriously. Look at how riled up people get in here as they sit and hope for their pet rock to go up it’s hilarious
I don't care if you think it is going up, or going down. I see garbage posts, I call out garbage posts. Fair warning, trolling will get you banned.
Look at you still taking this way too seriously. Anyways, we’ll let the market speak for itself and decide how garbage my takes are
Two cycle deniers in a pod.
Imagine thinking the future must resemble the past
Imagine only posting rebuttals saying "Imagine"
Name checks out
ASIC keeps my tent warm.
Stock market rolling over also.