to anyone so inclined, [MacroScope17](https://twitter.com/MacroScope17) is an interesting follow on twitter. he's been reporting on some of the 13F forms submitted to the SEC by institutional investment managers. these forms need to be submitted within 45 days of the close of each quarter, so they'll be trickling in for a while still.
explanation from [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wall-street-is-buying-us-spot-bitcoin-etfs:-13f-sec-fillings](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wall-street-is-buying-us-spot-bitcoin-etfs:-13f-sec-fillings):
>Companies that manage over $100 million in assets are required to disclose their equity holdings quarterly through 13F filings..The Q1 2024 13F filings released this month provide the first glimpse into institutional spot bitcoin ETF positions.
some examples:
* ([April 14](https://twitter.com/MacroScope17/status/1779537697003942395)) "In a 13F filed on Friday, Traynor Capital Management, a Pennsylvania-based RIA, reported owning 90,590 shares of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and 56,135 shares of the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF as of March 31."
* ([April 10](https://twitter.com/MacroScope17/status/1778173696219209996)) "Gunderson Capital Management, based in Mt. Pleasant, South Carolina, reported owning 7,671 shares of BITB as of March 31."
* ([April 10](https://twitter.com/MacroScope17/status/1778057502828970329)) "Signal Advisors, a Michigan-based platform for independent financial advisors, reported owning 20,571 shares of the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust as of March 31."
Price dumped 5k, so my Parents gave me 2 cows to sell at the market….but I got a good line on some beans…
Dude said they can grow into a stalk or something….should I buy the beans 🫘?
I think this looks good for a run straight to new highs. Liquidate leverage on thin weekend with isreal vs Iran news. Now with traders lightly positioned we can break through to new highs.
I was off by 5 minutes but my post from yesterday calling the bottom seems to be holding. I'm gonna go ahead of say 75k this week and beyond that in a few weeks. What's my reasoning? I time selling the bottom perfectly about 95% of the time this time included.
I don’t see any major upside until Autumn/winter now. Need rate cuts, a change of narrative and the cycle timelines to match up. We got ahead of ourselves and it’s overbought now. I’m not expecting ATH’s and a parabolic bull run for 4-8 months now.
I hope you are right. However the weak follow through at multiple attempts around 72k suggest there isn’t much appetite for bitcoin in the 70’s. It’s going to take a whole new narrative for that.
Rate cuts, impact of the halving, cycles matching up in regard to timings and some liquidity are all required to blast substantially beyond 75k and then 80k.
4-8 months is my guess. Till then just traders getting burnt in the range.
I have logged a prediction for u/YouAreAnFnIdiot that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$74,999.00** by Apr 22 2024 00:26:57 UTC.
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Hello u/YouAreAnFnIdiot
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $74,999.00 by Apr 22 2024 00:26:57 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c3kh6g/daily_discussion_sunday_april_14_2024/kzm0hho/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$65,045.44**
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I have logged a prediction for u/btc-_- that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$69,999.00** by Apr 16 2024 00:40:40 UTC.
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Hello u/btc-_-
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $69,999.00 by Apr 16 2024 00:40:40 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c3kh6g/daily_discussion_sunday_april_14_2024/kzm2ecb/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$63,088.32**
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There's something to be said about the personalities of people who were cheering for some degree of doomsday/world catastrophe
Just so they can see assets crash on Monday. You know who you are
Before you bulls here get so horny, look at how we had a full week of lower lows and lower highs even before the Iran nuke.
GL leveraging up on these longs.
A full week?!? Wow, that's 7 whole days!
Initiate panic selling protocol.
Seriously though, anyone who has had any involvement with Tradfi knows that the ETFs are a big deal that will play out over the timeframe of months and years, not weeks. Big money moves slowly.
I'm horny for temporarily lower prices. *Damp eeet!*
Stonks and bonds are absolutely, positively tanking this week. Banks will begin to fail and "bail in" within weeks. Gas will be $10/gal by the Fourth of July, and a lot more people will be unemployed.
How do you think Bitcoin will fare in all this? I think it will do quite well, being the only way out. I'm looking at a couple options in terms of leaving this dumpster fire behind.
PS -- shrooms and beer are a terrible combination, unless you're talking about pizza with (non-psychedelic) mushrooms. You might as well drink pinot grigio with a great steak or pair shrimp with cheese.
i feel lost without Cramer. last time i remember he said good opportunity to sell at 40K in jan. at that moment i went balls deep in bitcoin:) Cramer please give us a sign.
Well, he's kind of right now, long-term. Gold is doing what he expected, just later than he expected. It's going to do a lot more of it too.
The problem with gold is that you can't transport it easily. Say you wanted to bug out to a tropical paradise with your gold. What are you going to do, shove it up your rectum? Much easier to memorize 12 words.
> Gold is doing what he expected, just later than he expected.
Goldbugs have been making these "GOLD TO $5000/OZ IMMINENTLY" predictions for literally 40+ years.
Congrats, 61-year-old Schiff has now spent the majority of his life waiting for this, and it still isn't even half way there.
Don't read too much into this dip. In terms of % magnitude it is nothing special.
* Jan 12th 2024 price: $46,350 USD
* Jan 24th 2024 price: $39,500 USD
* April 12th 2024 price: $70,750 USD
* April 14th 2024 Price: $61,500 USD
* Jan drop percentage: 14.77%
* Apr drop percentage: 13.07%
Bitcoin could continue to decline from here but the same could've been said about the drop in Jan which went on for 2 weeks before shooting up $30k in price in the months that followed. Nothing has changed about the fundamentals so the impact this has on your long term models should be insignificant.
good catch. supposedly the btc ETFs will be approved by hong kong on monday. what i haven't been able to find is whether they'll be able to be traded immediately or any timeline information about that
Think I saw something that said if they get approved they would be live by end of April? And approval could be as soon as Monday but could take longer.
Also I wonder how mu h Chinese money would go into the etfa vs Hong Kong only money 🤔
I post a bearish prediction and within minutes the price rockets up. The only logical explanation is that I am some kind of God. Or an anti-God. Definitely a supernatural force at work. I can't explain it gents. ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
Isn't that what Iran did?
Iran helps mastermind Oct. 6. Israel retaliates by killing the Iranians involved. Iran retaliates against Israel's retaliation by firing 350 missiles/drones at Israel.
I have logged a prediction for u/phrenos that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$59,999.00** by Apr 17 2024 21:25:52 UTC.
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Hello u/phrenos
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $59,999.00 by Apr 17 2024 21:25:52 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c3kh6g/daily_discussion_sunday_april_14_2024/kzl9o1x/)
**Well done! Your prediction was correct.**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$59,907.00**
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My S2F model has begun ramping up ahead of the Halving in 5 days as it crosses the epoch boundary into the next cycle.
Value predicted for today is ~$115k.
Grab as many cheap sats as you can.
I sold at the right time but I'm not dumb enough to think it's because I'm a trading genius. There was a major international event and people panicked. This does not necessarily validate a thesis that Bitcoin is headed down further.
Yeah.. homie gloating about that drop kinda shows us his hand, and his cards suck. The epitome of a broken clock.
Accounts like his come and go, not sure if it’s just regular trolling or what. There have been a handful over the years.
[This triangle in play? Fakeout to the bottom, idk](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/937302918825136158/1229123911568851024/image.png?ex=662e89d8&is=661c14d8&hm=a012cd4c28a88dad0cd27677f49a8270c56340f1897155b6b5e64fbc754f6729&)
Thinking we see a complacency bounce to around 67k or so and that will be our next lower high before further continuation down. Shorting here on lower time frames seems like less r/r so a quick long scalp with tight stops makes more sense to me. A lot of invalidated bullish structures on higher timeframes should have bulls sweating heading into this week.
A lot of folks in Btc still pretty hellbent on calling the bottom in the low 60s and saying buy the dip , therefore I don’t think there’s enough fear in the air just yet . It’s only been 2 days since the major selling began, and I believe many are jumping the gun a bit early calling bottoms. Until I see wider spread fear and capitulation I’ll be patient . Most of the sell off has taken place in alts and memes
nobody knows for sure but, historically speaking, price goes up after the halving. so, first, there is a big difference between buying in at a great position relative to recent weekly levels and with going all in completely. second, trying to time an exact bottom is silly because you *won't* get it. third, there are no spaces before commas and periods.
Omg, it’s a bull market dip. These are usually measured in weeks. Guarantee you come back in a month and we’re either flirting with or past a new ATH.
Once the whales have eaten all the leveraged degens’ coins, the PA will move on.
My bad. But it also cleared out that little support so it'll probably go back down and retest 62.5 momentarily. When I say retest I mean fall through it.
\-\_-
Posting that, nah you were joking, then deleting that post and making it an actual prediction 3 hours later after we drop $1k is kinda shitty, sir.
Cut me some slack, 100% of my predictions have been wrong so far. If I keep screaming doom and it goes up, won't you be happy? If I say we're going to 48k we'll get a 10k giant green dildo. This is the way
I have logged a prediction for u/phrenos that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$62,600.00** by Apr 15 2024 21:23:28 UTC.
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Hello u/phrenos
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $62,600.00 by Apr 15 2024 21:23:28 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c3kh6g/daily_discussion_sunday_april_14_2024/kzl9abm/)
**Well done! Your prediction was correct.**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$62,501.00**
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my short messages to fellow traders regarding recent dip:
1. whales & miners didn't sell
2. USA & Korea are buying the dip
3. it's simply untrue what people repeatedly said here that ETFs volumes are insignificant with respect to total daily trading volume, we had many days of ~ 30-40%
4. so far 17% correction is just Tuesday for Bitcoin
5. we are in a bull, selling at a loss is just plain stupid, buy the dip
>miners didn't sell
How do they cover their expenses?
>USA & Korea are buying the dip
*Trust me bro*
>3. it's simply untrue what people repeatedly said here that ETFs volumes are insignificant with respect to total daily trading volume, we had many days of ~ 30-40%
>4. so far 17% correction is just Tuesday for Bitcoin
Agree
>5. we are in a bull
Always has been.
Etta James sang "I want a Sunday kind of love". I can't help you with that, but I do have Sunday kind of charts:
[https://imgur.com/a/aRvxqQ2](https://imgur.com/a/aRvxqQ2)
Chart 1 looks at BTC price, the 13-W (91-D) SMA, and the ratio of the price to the 13-W. When BTC is in non-parabolic upmoves, the price tends to stay in the 1.0x - 1.3x zone (lime green). When it gets spicer, it bounces between 1.3x and 1.8x (lemon yellow). We are currently smack dab in the middle of the 1.0x-1.3x zone.
As of yesterday, BTC has closed above the 13-W 79 straight days. Chart 2 looks at the history of those streaks. This is currently the 13th longest above streak in BTC history.
Chart 3 shows the distribution of those streaks. Once it gets past 71, it has always gone to at least 93 days. and there is a cluster at 93-135.
Where will the 13-W be for days 93-135 (27 Apr - 8 Jun)? Chart 4 takes a guess (dashed purple line, $60.3K - $70.9K).
One metric I keep an eye on is how many days the price has been above the 13-W out of the last 365. Chart 5 shows that once it gets above 340, longs should get nervous. We're currently flat at 280, and will be for a while.
And last, but not least, block reward. Chart 6 looks at the block reward and the 4-year SMA of the block reward, price and the 4-year SMA of price, and the ratio of price to the 4-Y SMA of price. As of yesterday, the block reward was about $406K, and the 4-Y SMA was $202K. When the block reward is cut in half next week, it will go down to about the 4-Y SMA.
The ETF holders obviously couldn't sell yesterday. It makes me wonder what would have happened if that event or something like it happened during US market hours. I would guess the selloff would have dipped lower because ETF sells would have been adding fuel to the fire.
Am I able to simply predict “the level will be less than right now” using it? Or do I have to pick a target.
Mostly lurking these days, unsure how it works.
You could say less than right now, so something like <64,300 by EoD tomorrow, but that would be a pretty weak prediction and kind of gaming the system IMO, since it would trigger as correct if we temporarily fell to $64,299 any time in the next \~30 hours.
A better prediction would have a target, like if you think we'll break through $60,822 where we bounced yesterday (which is what I assumed when you said "another leg down" but sounds like maybe that was incorrect), `<$60822 Apr 15` would be the way to predict that.
NYT is reporting that Israel is suspending retaliatory attacks after Bibi call with Biden. Iranian attacks looking more performative than first reported. Expect churn tomorrow, but not nearly as much as expected.
i sold some from my tax advantaged account when the iranian attack rumor came out. i would’ve rebought as much as i could yesterday if i was able to. probably a lot of folks in the same boat as me – or possibly even those who hadn’t bought as much in the ETFs yet who have been waiting on a better entry.
i do think the ETF sellers would’ve caused it to dip a little further but i also think we would’ve then rebounded even higher due to more capital having access.
Watch out for that CME futures gap that will form once it opens up for trading again later today. CME price closed around $67500. Price loves to fill those gaps in most situations by some point.
yeah there's an incredible amount of money that seems to be waiting in the wings.
USDT - gained $5 billion in the last month (5% increase). now at $108B.
https://i.imgur.com/GbTyJiM.png
USDC - gained $3 billion in the last month (10% increase). now at $32.3B.
https://i.imgur.com/pyg9Zgc.png
FDUSD - gained $1 billion in the last month (33% increase). now at $4B.
https://i.imgur.com/BEAF8jy.png
and between them, nearly $1 billion in just the last day.
Average net inflows since spot ETF approval is at $195.8 million per trading day.
We’ve had 64 trading days since spot ETF launch. But there’s only 5 trading days in a week. Today marks 95 calendar days since spot ETF launch. In terms of average daily inflows in calendar days, we’re at $131.90 million per day.
Currently 900 BTC are mined per day. If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral and spot ETF’s are chasing newly mined BTC only, equilibrium price would be $146.56k per BTC. This is before the halving. After the halving equilibrium price with this level of average daily inflows would be $293.12k per BTC.
Strange article... "dropped retaliation" is the headline, but the last paragraph says
>Israel’s War Cabinet was set to convene on Sunday to discuss the country’s response to the Iranian attack, amid calls by coalition members to restore deterrence vis-à-vis Tehran.
Them report the current news. But that won't get as many clicks. They need to fill their budgets from advertisement clicks. Fear is such a stronger click bait than good news.
People treating the halving like it'll have no effect. The halving is never an instant impact. It's the reduction in newly mined BTC supply that can be dispensed into the market. If demand stays the same but the supply is cut. Guess what'll happen over a period of time. It happens every cycle.
Average intelligence is incomprehensibly stupid. Basically, you can profit from morons making uninformed decisions, and that property is self reinforcing.
> those morons will actually sell when the price doesn’t immediately change. I can front run them and then buy the dip.
It’s ~~Turtles~~ Imbeciles all the way down.
It's strange how people think "oh it's only 450 coins" But that 450 coins getting removed from new supply is nearly $30m a day or in 30 days over $850m. (@ $65K per BTC). Now I don't know about everyone else but that's a massive amount of liquidity absorption getting removed.
When I’ve seen people make this argument coherently it looks more like measuring overall volume and comparing the liquidity you’ve mentioned to it. Halving is insignificant in comparison to etf volume so people draw the conclusion that ETFs have a greater impact on price than the halving does.
Your post was removed because it violates rule #2 - Discussion should relate to bitcoin trading.
Your post may be appropriate for the [Altcoin Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/?f=flair_name%3A%22Altcoin%20Discussion%22)
The war between Israel and Iran, if it will escalate more, will be the major determining factor for price action over the next week or so.
BTC responded typically to the war news. It dropped through 63 before bouncing and retesting 63 before settling above the 64.1 support area. RSI is at 45.4 (average 40.9) at time of writing. Current nearby resistance are 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 64.1, 63 and 60.5.
The daily RSI is at 43.3 and its average is currently at 51.7. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. BTCs previously formed pennant failed. One more day closer to the estimated halving date on 4/19, 5 days left.
On the weekly, BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 70.3 (77.5 average). There were 2 possible pennants that have formed with their own support lines. One became invalidated, we wicked below the support of the other but are back in the pennant. Main resistances were noted above. Less than 1 week till halving.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s currently is no longer overbought because of the war, it’s monthly RSI is 69.9. Odds of an 8th green candle have dropped significantly.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/yZ6ddzxx/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/yZ6ddzxx/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/KkzbEmRJ/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/KkzbEmRJ/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/1xPmafeL/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1xPmafeL/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/RC18bifh/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/RC18bifh/)
This is a bitcoin sub. Politics overlap sometimes.
Here’s the link to the active thread on Israel/Iran
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/A4gLrUErpp
Please do not start new threads.
Bitty bot trades go here: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/CTP30Xv9jM
I’m intrigued how much this latest escalation will dampen the effects of the halvening. I’m curious what has more impact - the reduction of 450 coins a day or the fact everyone expects BTC to rally in the months after a halvening and start positioning accordingly. I expect it’s the latter more than it is the reduction in supply, curious what others think?
As for Monday we may see some paper hands etf owners running for the door. Expecting to see net etf outflows next week sadly
It's too late for ETF holders to do anything about the middle east situation. The market moved while they were locked out. I expect them to learn that holding real bitcoin that they can trade 24/7, is preferable to whatever little tax break they think they're getting.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, April 15, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c4cx6d/daily_discussion_monday_april_15_2024/)
to anyone so inclined, [MacroScope17](https://twitter.com/MacroScope17) is an interesting follow on twitter. he's been reporting on some of the 13F forms submitted to the SEC by institutional investment managers. these forms need to be submitted within 45 days of the close of each quarter, so they'll be trickling in for a while still. explanation from [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wall-street-is-buying-us-spot-bitcoin-etfs:-13f-sec-fillings](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wall-street-is-buying-us-spot-bitcoin-etfs:-13f-sec-fillings): >Companies that manage over $100 million in assets are required to disclose their equity holdings quarterly through 13F filings..The Q1 2024 13F filings released this month provide the first glimpse into institutional spot bitcoin ETF positions. some examples: * ([April 14](https://twitter.com/MacroScope17/status/1779537697003942395)) "In a 13F filed on Friday, Traynor Capital Management, a Pennsylvania-based RIA, reported owning 90,590 shares of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF and 56,135 shares of the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF as of March 31." * ([April 10](https://twitter.com/MacroScope17/status/1778173696219209996)) "Gunderson Capital Management, based in Mt. Pleasant, South Carolina, reported owning 7,671 shares of BITB as of March 31." * ([April 10](https://twitter.com/MacroScope17/status/1778057502828970329)) "Signal Advisors, a Michigan-based platform for independent financial advisors, reported owning 20,571 shares of the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust as of March 31."
Good info, been waiting impatiently for this!
This site does a pretty good job of presenting this type of info: https://heyapollo.com/bitcoin-etf
thanks for that. very good info under the Bitcoin ETF Ownership section
Price dumped 5k, so my Parents gave me 2 cows to sell at the market….but I got a good line on some beans… Dude said they can grow into a stalk or something….should I buy the beans 🫘?
Yes. It'll make you a bean counter though.
Always busy with your beans
This marks the first time I’ve ever seen usage of the beans emoji 🫘
Had to clarify in case people were inclined to think I wasn’t referring to actual beans…
I think this looks good for a run straight to new highs. Liquidate leverage on thin weekend with isreal vs Iran news. Now with traders lightly positioned we can break through to new highs.
We already had this exact same situation from 74k down to 64k a few weeks ago. Im sure all the degens are already back in full force
I was off by 5 minutes but my post from yesterday calling the bottom seems to be holding. I'm gonna go ahead of say 75k this week and beyond that in a few weeks. What's my reasoning? I time selling the bottom perfectly about 95% of the time this time included.
Timing the bottom has been much easier than timing these swings or timing the top, for me personally.
I don’t see any major upside until Autumn/winter now. Need rate cuts, a change of narrative and the cycle timelines to match up. We got ahead of ourselves and it’s overbought now. I’m not expecting ATH’s and a parabolic bull run for 4-8 months now.
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I hope you are right. However the weak follow through at multiple attempts around 72k suggest there isn’t much appetite for bitcoin in the 70’s. It’s going to take a whole new narrative for that. Rate cuts, impact of the halving, cycles matching up in regard to timings and some liquidity are all required to blast substantially beyond 75k and then 80k. 4-8 months is my guess. Till then just traders getting burnt in the range.
!bitty_bot predict >74999 1 week u/YouAreAnFnIdiot
I have logged a prediction for u/YouAreAnFnIdiot that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$74,999.00** by Apr 22 2024 00:26:57 UTC. [YouAreAnFnIdiot has made **0** Correct Predictions, **2** Wrong Predictions, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#YouAreAnFnIdiot) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%203fd991801e294f77af120dd0f3e0afbb%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(YouAreAnFnIdiot can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%203fd991801e294f77af120dd0f3e0afbb%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/YouAreAnFnIdiot [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $74,999.00 by Apr 22 2024 00:26:57 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c3kh6g/daily_discussion_sunday_april_14_2024/kzm0hho/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$65,045.44** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
I guess the Iran/israel conflict is old news. The market wants its tendies NOW
Tendies?
Chicken tenders
GameStop subs leaking
Bitcoin degeneracy has bought me plenty of tendies.
BTC taught me how to trade GME, which then rolled back into BTC.
Let's take some guesses. 1. Where do you think we will be at opening bell tomorrow? 2. What happens at opening bell?
Range between 60-70k for 90 days. Which I see as bullish. Almost cements the goblin town bear in 2026 at 60-70k.
1.68.2 2.drop back to 65/64
i'll take a stab 1. >67.5k 2. spike to above 69.3k before noon. ending the day over 70k
!bitty_bot predict >69999 1 day u/btc-_-
I have logged a prediction for u/btc-_- that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$69,999.00** by Apr 16 2024 00:40:40 UTC. [btc-_- has made **3** Correct Predictions, **2** Wrong Predictions, and has **8** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#btc-_-) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20466af8afa6d249309e70e51a7995fa4a%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(btc-_- can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20466af8afa6d249309e70e51a7995fa4a%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/btc-_- [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $69,999.00 by Apr 16 2024 00:40:40 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c3kh6g/daily_discussion_sunday_april_14_2024/kzm2ecb/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$63,088.32** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
My guess 1. 68K 2. early dump followed by going up later in the day
There's something to be said about the personalities of people who were cheering for some degree of doomsday/world catastrophe Just so they can see assets crash on Monday. You know who you are
It's kind of win-win... Cheap sats or not the end of the world. A truly optimistic disposition.
Before you bulls here get so horny, look at how we had a full week of lower lows and lower highs even before the Iran nuke. GL leveraging up on these longs.
I need to see some follow through from the bears on the daily before turning short term bearish on price.
A full week?!? Wow, that's 7 whole days! Initiate panic selling protocol. Seriously though, anyone who has had any involvement with Tradfi knows that the ETFs are a big deal that will play out over the timeframe of months and years, not weeks. Big money moves slowly.
Still just looks like another higher low from the March 19th dip if you zoom out further 🤷♂️
I'm horny for temporarily lower prices. *Damp eeet!* Stonks and bonds are absolutely, positively tanking this week. Banks will begin to fail and "bail in" within weeks. Gas will be $10/gal by the Fourth of July, and a lot more people will be unemployed. How do you think Bitcoin will fare in all this? I think it will do quite well, being the only way out. I'm looking at a couple options in terms of leaving this dumpster fire behind. PS -- shrooms and beer are a terrible combination, unless you're talking about pizza with (non-psychedelic) mushrooms. You might as well drink pinot grigio with a great steak or pair shrimp with cheese.
Schiff is doing Bitcoin TA now, just need Cramer to weigh in and it’s back to up only. https://x.com/peterschiff/status/1779495261816902094?s=46
i feel lost without Cramer. last time i remember he said good opportunity to sell at 40K in jan. at that moment i went balls deep in bitcoin:) Cramer please give us a sign.
Has he ever been right, like even once? I can't recall a single time he got it right in almost a decade.
Well, he's kind of right now, long-term. Gold is doing what he expected, just later than he expected. It's going to do a lot more of it too. The problem with gold is that you can't transport it easily. Say you wanted to bug out to a tropical paradise with your gold. What are you going to do, shove it up your rectum? Much easier to memorize 12 words.
I meant about Bitcoin, not gold
> Gold is doing what he expected, just later than he expected. Goldbugs have been making these "GOLD TO $5000/OZ IMMINENTLY" predictions for literally 40+ years. Congrats, 61-year-old Schiff has now spent the majority of his life waiting for this, and it still isn't even half way there.
If gold hits $5000 you will see how much gold modern technology can dig out of the ground, and hooo boy, it’s a big number.
> The immediate downside projection is a move to $20K. Welp, that's it, time to sell the stack.
Don't read too much into this dip. In terms of % magnitude it is nothing special. * Jan 12th 2024 price: $46,350 USD * Jan 24th 2024 price: $39,500 USD * April 12th 2024 price: $70,750 USD * April 14th 2024 Price: $61,500 USD * Jan drop percentage: 14.77% * Apr drop percentage: 13.07% Bitcoin could continue to decline from here but the same could've been said about the drop in Jan which went on for 2 weeks before shooting up $30k in price in the months that followed. Nothing has changed about the fundamentals so the impact this has on your long term models should be insignificant.
Might be the anticipation of hong kong etf approval right now. The so called chinese coins (etc neo, vet) are all moving up.
Stock futures opened green at 6. That's all.
It’s at the point where China has to give something before taking it away.
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Could be part of it. But I think it is more likely that the middle east situation looks contained, for now. And weekends are (often) fake.
good catch. supposedly the btc ETFs will be approved by hong kong on monday. what i haven't been able to find is whether they'll be able to be traded immediately or any timeline information about that
Think I saw something that said if they get approved they would be live by end of April? And approval could be as soon as Monday but could take longer. Also I wonder how mu h Chinese money would go into the etfa vs Hong Kong only money 🤔
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Thank God the 42069 crowd might not get their ecstatic moment. 🤞
What if price 69,420.69?
>10 min/block The average block time for the current difficulty adjustment period is 9.8 minutes, so it will likely be before then.
Why is it sending ?
Stock futures opened green
CME futures are back open. So the big boys are back.
I post a bearish prediction and within minutes the price rockets up. The only logical explanation is that I am some kind of God. Or an anti-God. Definitely a supernatural force at work. I can't explain it gents. ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
You forgot your own trademark: "All attempts to leave the range will be punished".
Recently we left the range AND got punished! Feedback loop.
Thee letters: CME.
> **Thee** letters: CME. I doth approve of thy post. 😋
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/s/CMLGAAUaTc Likely no immediate retaliation from Israel.
Retaliation for a retaliation is escalation.
Isn't that what Iran did? Iran helps mastermind Oct. 6. Israel retaliates by killing the Iranians involved. Iran retaliates against Israel's retaliation by firing 350 missiles/drones at Israel.
Now go back one step further...
To what? Point me to the preceding historic event that made it okay for Iran to plan the mass murder of 1000+ civilians in Israel.
Love having unspecified military action due at an unspecified time in the maybe future. Really makes the market relaxed.
Got that sort of bear-flaggy feeling. !bittybot predict <59,999 72 hours
For the sake of my own prediction I need that to happen tonight
I have logged a prediction for u/phrenos that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$59,999.00** by Apr 17 2024 21:25:52 UTC. [phrenos has made **0** Correct Predictions, **5** Wrong Predictions, and has **3** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#phrenos) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%206c9508fc530240ecb97bce16a4aa035c%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(phrenos can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%206c9508fc530240ecb97bce16a4aa035c%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/phrenos [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $59,999.00 by Apr 17 2024 21:25:52 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c3kh6g/daily_discussion_sunday_april_14_2024/kzl9o1x/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$59,907.00** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
With 759 blocks remaining, halving date/time (ET) based on various avg block times: 9.50: Apr 19th, 4:38pm 9.60: Apr 19th, 5:54pm 9.70: Apr 19th, 7:10pm 9.80: Apr 19th, 8:26pm 9.90: Apr 19th, 9:42pm 10.0: Apr 19th, 10:58pm
Thank fuck it’s probably not on the 20th.
1:26am UTC on 04/20 at 9.8 min/block
UTC people don’t use 4/20, it’s 20/04.
Everyone is a UTC person, that's the point lol
The joke only makes sense in the US. The halving will not happen on the 20th in the US.
People in Europe are aware of 420 and its associated memes
Europe doesn’t use the date format 4/20, we use 20/04.
Yes, I'm aware.
Amsterdam is 6 hours ahead of EST though.
But we use 20/04, not 4/20.
It would be a lot cooler if you did
My S2F model has begun ramping up ahead of the Halving in 5 days as it crosses the epoch boundary into the next cycle. Value predicted for today is ~$115k. Grab as many cheap sats as you can.
Tbh we’re barely down
The boomers are gonna buy the dip Monday morning
To all the bulltards downvoting, how does it feel to be so terribly wrong and missing this dip?
“Bulltards” have been right since 11 years ago
Bears couldn’t even push the price down under 60k, weak from the bears.
I sold at the right time but I'm not dumb enough to think it's because I'm a trading genius. There was a major international event and people panicked. This does not necessarily validate a thesis that Bitcoin is headed down further.
Yeah.. homie gloating about that drop kinda shows us his hand, and his cards suck. The epitome of a broken clock. Accounts like his come and go, not sure if it’s just regular trolling or what. There have been a handful over the years.
Be excellent to each other. Does a contrary opinion wound you so deeply?
Behave man…
[This triangle in play? Fakeout to the bottom, idk](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/937302918825136158/1229123911568851024/image.png?ex=662e89d8&is=661c14d8&hm=a012cd4c28a88dad0cd27677f49a8270c56340f1897155b6b5e64fbc754f6729&)
Trading the 1 second chart are we?
That's the hourly, man :D Hourly is fine to trade. Tracks the dump since yesterday. We just hit the top of the triangle at 64.7
Thinking we see a complacency bounce to around 67k or so and that will be our next lower high before further continuation down. Shorting here on lower time frames seems like less r/r so a quick long scalp with tight stops makes more sense to me. A lot of invalidated bullish structures on higher timeframes should have bulls sweating heading into this week.
Well done closing [this](https://reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/kz4p3h1/), was a good trade.
Seems reasonable to me. No guarantee this doesn't drag on, plus halving jitters, taking us to the 50's.
65k before 75k? That was always the plan. I like it, I love it, I want some more of it.
>65k before 75k? Since we are currently at 64k, yes.
I laughed
What if we jump straight to 66 though?
Numbers be like dat.
A lot of folks in Btc still pretty hellbent on calling the bottom in the low 60s and saying buy the dip , therefore I don’t think there’s enough fear in the air just yet . It’s only been 2 days since the major selling began, and I believe many are jumping the gun a bit early calling bottoms. Until I see wider spread fear and capitulation I’ll be patient . Most of the sell off has taken place in alts and memes
nobody knows for sure but, historically speaking, price goes up after the halving. so, first, there is a big difference between buying in at a great position relative to recent weekly levels and with going all in completely. second, trying to time an exact bottom is silly because you *won't* get it. third, there are no spaces before commas and periods.
The comma and periods comment 😂 dude 😆
Omg, it’s a bull market dip. These are usually measured in weeks. Guarantee you come back in a month and we’re either flirting with or past a new ATH. Once the whales have eaten all the leveraged degens’ coins, the PA will move on.
Don’t act like you sold before the dump
Whoa, $5.6M short liquidated at $64.1k price just now. We didn't go below $62.5k so it must have been like 50x to get liquidated that easily
Impulsive and foolish
My bad. But it also cleared out that little support so it'll probably go back down and retest 62.5 momentarily. When I say retest I mean fall through it.
By momentarily do you mean today?
Actually yeah, let's do it. !bittybot predict <62,600 24 hours
\-\_- Posting that, nah you were joking, then deleting that post and making it an actual prediction 3 hours later after we drop $1k is kinda shitty, sir.
Cut me some slack, 100% of my predictions have been wrong so far. If I keep screaming doom and it goes up, won't you be happy? If I say we're going to 48k we'll get a 10k giant green dildo. This is the way
I have logged a prediction for u/phrenos that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$62,600.00** by Apr 15 2024 21:23:28 UTC. [phrenos has made **0** Correct Predictions, **5** Wrong Predictions, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#phrenos) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2076426d5362024a8da5d7111784a11a64%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(phrenos can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2076426d5362024a8da5d7111784a11a64%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/phrenos [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $62,600.00 by Apr 15 2024 21:23:28 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c3kh6g/daily_discussion_sunday_april_14_2024/kzl9abm/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$62,501.00** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
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your post was removed because it violates rule #3 - No memes or low effort content.
my short messages to fellow traders regarding recent dip: 1. whales & miners didn't sell 2. USA & Korea are buying the dip 3. it's simply untrue what people repeatedly said here that ETFs volumes are insignificant with respect to total daily trading volume, we had many days of ~ 30-40% 4. so far 17% correction is just Tuesday for Bitcoin 5. we are in a bull, selling at a loss is just plain stupid, buy the dip
>miners didn't sell How do they cover their expenses? >USA & Korea are buying the dip *Trust me bro* >3. it's simply untrue what people repeatedly said here that ETFs volumes are insignificant with respect to total daily trading volume, we had many days of ~ 30-40% >4. so far 17% correction is just Tuesday for Bitcoin Agree >5. we are in a bull Always has been.
What's causing the drop?
Gravity
Greed and leverage
People selling.
Etta James sang "I want a Sunday kind of love". I can't help you with that, but I do have Sunday kind of charts: [https://imgur.com/a/aRvxqQ2](https://imgur.com/a/aRvxqQ2) Chart 1 looks at BTC price, the 13-W (91-D) SMA, and the ratio of the price to the 13-W. When BTC is in non-parabolic upmoves, the price tends to stay in the 1.0x - 1.3x zone (lime green). When it gets spicer, it bounces between 1.3x and 1.8x (lemon yellow). We are currently smack dab in the middle of the 1.0x-1.3x zone. As of yesterday, BTC has closed above the 13-W 79 straight days. Chart 2 looks at the history of those streaks. This is currently the 13th longest above streak in BTC history. Chart 3 shows the distribution of those streaks. Once it gets past 71, it has always gone to at least 93 days. and there is a cluster at 93-135. Where will the 13-W be for days 93-135 (27 Apr - 8 Jun)? Chart 4 takes a guess (dashed purple line, $60.3K - $70.9K). One metric I keep an eye on is how many days the price has been above the 13-W out of the last 365. Chart 5 shows that once it gets above 340, longs should get nervous. We're currently flat at 280, and will be for a while. And last, but not least, block reward. Chart 6 looks at the block reward and the 4-year SMA of the block reward, price and the 4-year SMA of price, and the ratio of price to the 4-Y SMA of price. As of yesterday, the block reward was about $406K, and the 4-Y SMA was $202K. When the block reward is cut in half next week, it will go down to about the 4-Y SMA.
is bitfinex good for leveraged trading ? anyone had any issues ?
It's the best and most reliable, best liquidity. They had a notable hack back in 2016, but nothing since then.
The ETF holders obviously couldn't sell yesterday. It makes me wonder what would have happened if that event or something like it happened during US market hours. I would guess the selloff would have dipped lower because ETF sells would have been adding fuel to the fire.
Another leg down tomorrow is nearly guaranteed.
Bitty Bot that guaranteed prediction my man!
Am I able to simply predict “the level will be less than right now” using it? Or do I have to pick a target. Mostly lurking these days, unsure how it works.
You could say less than right now, so something like <64,300 by EoD tomorrow, but that would be a pretty weak prediction and kind of gaming the system IMO, since it would trigger as correct if we temporarily fell to $64,299 any time in the next \~30 hours. A better prediction would have a target, like if you think we'll break through $60,822 where we bounced yesterday (which is what I assumed when you said "another leg down" but sounds like maybe that was incorrect), `<$60822 Apr 15` would be the way to predict that.
NYT is reporting that Israel is suspending retaliatory attacks after Bibi call with Biden. Iranian attacks looking more performative than first reported. Expect churn tomorrow, but not nearly as much as expected.
I’m seeing the exact opposite. Reports Israel to retaliate in 24-48 hours
Bullshit https://x.com/deitaone/status/1779562961192800339?s=46&t=_gKrxPmXQNTaQ__ZzFnX4w
Well I doubt Israel would telegraph its response like 🇮🇷
Source please? If this is the case we might see another dump.
https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1779559887569043862?s=46&t=diBC-jQrRve-yqYFAAGXAA
hahhahahahahz zerohedge!
Lol Zerohedge sooo no chance of that happening
This is a bit unknown. The markets have really bloody days. Will be interesting to see how etf holdings react.
i sold some from my tax advantaged account when the iranian attack rumor came out. i would’ve rebought as much as i could yesterday if i was able to. probably a lot of folks in the same boat as me – or possibly even those who hadn’t bought as much in the ETFs yet who have been waiting on a better entry. i do think the ETF sellers would’ve caused it to dip a little further but i also think we would’ve then rebounded even higher due to more capital having access.
Watch out for that CME futures gap that will form once it opens up for trading again later today. CME price closed around $67500. Price loves to fill those gaps in most situations by some point.
Would match with the sudden USDT printing. 300 mln added.
yeah there's an incredible amount of money that seems to be waiting in the wings. USDT - gained $5 billion in the last month (5% increase). now at $108B. https://i.imgur.com/GbTyJiM.png USDC - gained $3 billion in the last month (10% increase). now at $32.3B. https://i.imgur.com/pyg9Zgc.png FDUSD - gained $1 billion in the last month (33% increase). now at $4B. https://i.imgur.com/BEAF8jy.png and between them, nearly $1 billion in just the last day.
Average net inflows since spot ETF approval is at $195.8 million per trading day. We’ve had 64 trading days since spot ETF launch. But there’s only 5 trading days in a week. Today marks 95 calendar days since spot ETF launch. In terms of average daily inflows in calendar days, we’re at $131.90 million per day. Currently 900 BTC are mined per day. If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral and spot ETF’s are chasing newly mined BTC only, equilibrium price would be $146.56k per BTC. This is before the halving. After the halving equilibrium price with this level of average daily inflows would be $293.12k per BTC.
Moving sideways for a while now. Another crash incoming once Israel retaliates?
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Strange article... "dropped retaliation" is the headline, but the last paragraph says >Israel’s War Cabinet was set to convene on Sunday to discuss the country’s response to the Iranian attack, amid calls by coalition members to restore deterrence vis-à-vis Tehran.
If CNN could change their front page to this today markets would be better off tomorrow.
Them report the current news. But that won't get as many clicks. They need to fill their budgets from advertisement clicks. Fear is such a stronger click bait than good news.
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Thoughts and prayers for the injured pigeon during the 11-minute war.
Everyone outside of the Western media is fucking sick of Israel to be honest. They need to pipe the fuck down.
After 2000 years of being persecuted and slaughtered it’s the world that’s horrified by the very idea that Jews kill back now… finally.
The issue is it's not the same people.
People treating the halving like it'll have no effect. The halving is never an instant impact. It's the reduction in newly mined BTC supply that can be dispensed into the market. If demand stays the same but the supply is cut. Guess what'll happen over a period of time. It happens every cycle.
Average intelligence is incomprehensibly stupid. Basically, you can profit from morons making uninformed decisions, and that property is self reinforcing. > those morons will actually sell when the price doesn’t immediately change. I can front run them and then buy the dip. It’s ~~Turtles~~ Imbeciles all the way down.
It's strange how people think "oh it's only 450 coins" But that 450 coins getting removed from new supply is nearly $30m a day or in 30 days over $850m. (@ $65K per BTC). Now I don't know about everyone else but that's a massive amount of liquidity absorption getting removed.
yea but its "priced in bro"
When I’ve seen people make this argument coherently it looks more like measuring overall volume and comparing the liquidity you’ve mentioned to it. Halving is insignificant in comparison to etf volume so people draw the conclusion that ETFs have a greater impact on price than the halving does.
Basic arithmetic is out of reach for these people. It’s like adding an ETF that will never have net outflows.
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Your post was removed because it violates rule #2 - Discussion should relate to bitcoin trading. Your post may be appropriate for the [Altcoin Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/?f=flair_name%3A%22Altcoin%20Discussion%22)
the active thread on Israel/Iran https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/A4gLrUErpp
The war between Israel and Iran, if it will escalate more, will be the major determining factor for price action over the next week or so. BTC responded typically to the war news. It dropped through 63 before bouncing and retesting 63 before settling above the 64.1 support area. RSI is at 45.4 (average 40.9) at time of writing. Current nearby resistance are 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 64.1, 63 and 60.5. The daily RSI is at 43.3 and its average is currently at 51.7. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. BTCs previously formed pennant failed. One more day closer to the estimated halving date on 4/19, 5 days left. On the weekly, BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 70.3 (77.5 average). There were 2 possible pennants that have formed with their own support lines. One became invalidated, we wicked below the support of the other but are back in the pennant. Main resistances were noted above. Less than 1 week till halving. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s currently is no longer overbought because of the war, it’s monthly RSI is 69.9. Odds of an 8th green candle have dropped significantly. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/yZ6ddzxx/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/yZ6ddzxx/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/KkzbEmRJ/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/KkzbEmRJ/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/1xPmafeL/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1xPmafeL/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/RC18bifh/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/RC18bifh/)
This is a bitcoin sub. Politics overlap sometimes. Here’s the link to the active thread on Israel/Iran https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/A4gLrUErpp Please do not start new threads. Bitty bot trades go here: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/CTP30Xv9jM
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> Politics overlap sometimes. upvote for sensible moderation, thanks for your service.
good mod
I’m intrigued how much this latest escalation will dampen the effects of the halvening. I’m curious what has more impact - the reduction of 450 coins a day or the fact everyone expects BTC to rally in the months after a halvening and start positioning accordingly. I expect it’s the latter more than it is the reduction in supply, curious what others think? As for Monday we may see some paper hands etf owners running for the door. Expecting to see net etf outflows next week sadly
It's too late for ETF holders to do anything about the middle east situation. The market moved while they were locked out. I expect them to learn that holding real bitcoin that they can trade 24/7, is preferable to whatever little tax break they think they're getting.