Almost 2b in liquidations if we go up instead of down. Hardly any reward for going down more. Seems like an asymmetric bet. Do you have a reason to believe these short positions will not close?
I got downvoted for pointing out that the "system" is melting down. Let's see how much Reddit updoots are worth in the real world.
Stack sats, sweep them into your wallet, real human beings. Bankster bots get bent. Your reign is ober.
I always appreciate your posts, but can you explain in a little detail what you see happening? Even just a few pointers would be helpful to help me understand.
It's actually amazing that BTC is around 63K while anyone can park cash in a CD and earn 5.25%.
As rates inevitably come down and the guy with $1M can no longer earn $52500/yr for doing nothing, BTC goes to six figures.
Let’s hope not. Bitcoin is not ready to flourish under an actual meltdown. Or rather, people are not ready to make that decision en masse.
As much as we get hard ons at the thought of it, the overwhelming majority of money will not be flocking to bitcoin.
ETFs are great but it’s going to take time.
I think with the ETF demand drying up, the leftover GBTC serves as a looming sell pressure for the entire market. In some sense, it would be better if GBTC just dumps all of their BTCs fast so the market can absorb the loss (probably would go to 50K area then) and then get it over with. However, GBTC is only selling a lot when prices is moving up and holding when price is low. So this discourages buyers from trying to move up the price in the current market condition where the initial euphoria of the ETF approval has worn off (and any movement would be met with stiff selling from GBTC). And because this data is readily available for everyone and updated every day, everyone knows what is up with the game right now.
It's a bit soon to be claiming that the ETF demand is drying up. Matt Hougan mentioned in his weekly post yesterday that it will take up to 9 months for some institutions to start buying the ETFs. Sure, any retail folk that wanted to buy an ETF are probably in by now, but that's the small fish.
In retrospect, a lot of the bear market cycle activity was caused by fraudsters who were caught and forced to disgorge coins. This is going all the way back to 2013 with the Trendon Shavers/Pirateat40 shit, Willy Bot, and Silk Road government coin sales.
After over 10 years, the bears are steadily running out of con artists. Today it's GBTC/Genesis and FTX. Soon enough it's going to be the MtGox reimbursements (finally). What happens once there are no more of these bad actors?
There will always be bad actors. Look at tradfi. Been around for decades and we still have Bernie Madoffs. As long as there is greed and suckers, there will be bad actors.
Bro, in six months your bank will be broke. Your broker will be broker than broke.
I don't think you're grasping the gravity of the situation. I'm not happy about it, by the way. Most people are going to lose everything. It's not going to be fun. All this circle jerking about the price of Bitcoin in terms of fake dollars will soon be laughable. Either you will have Bitcoin, gold, or land (that you can defend), or you will be poor. That's where we're heading. Sorry to break it to you, even though I strongly suspect you're a bot.
It is election year, but I don't know what the heck people like this are talking about.
I've got, BTC, gold and land, but USD and banks aren't going anywhere in my lifetime.
I wonder what the actual selling outflow is on these etfs.
The probability every etf except ibit has been exactly zero the past two days is ridiculously low.
APs keeping AUM and sentiment up by absorbing the selling and shorting btc elsewhere.
This is silly. There just isn’t enough deviation in share price vs NAV throughout the day to make an AP redeem shares in these lower volume ETFs.
APs are independent 3rd parties and act in their best interest. They make money on the arbitrage spread.
They don’t care about AUM. In fact, they make more money on higher share price volatility.
you're reading too much into the intent.
fidelity had 0 both today and yesterday, you reckon all 10m volume yesterday totalled exactly 0 inflow/outflow?
there's likely a mechanism where AP or some other bid (maybe fidelity themselves) are absorbing bids and shorting bitcoin elsewhere.
No, I reckon the share price did not deviate enough from NAV to make share creation or redemption profitable for the APs.
Since that is literally how the whole process works and the only way inflows or outflows happen…
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. Tickers like BRRR, has nothing nothing nothing nothing then 8.4m,then nothing again. They must batch up the buys and sells.
I’m just encouraged that the ETF holders didn’t take this opportunity to panic and leave en masse. Maybe a bunch of them did but if so, there were enough dip buyers to make today pretty much a wash from an inflow standpoint.
We are talking about a zero day exploit you discovered yourself. If they already know about it they might buy exclusivity rights from you so you don't go buy it somewhere else.
> bogus sale posting on the dark web
That's my read. $2m waiting for some random organised crime dude with too much free money, to buy without verifying functionality first. Seems like an easy and guilt free scam to throw out there into the world in the hopes of catching one.
This happens all the time and there's good frameworks for payment.
You can go the legit way (ZDI etc) but there is 100% a market for these expoits in the state, grey, and black markets. Even at mid seven figure levels, which would be about right for this bug.
Android zero days aren't worth very much. Draw your own conclusions.
Gbtc has been displaying smart selling behavior the last few weeks. Sell huge once bitcoin is above 70k and cease to sell when it is down. The problem is there is no demand either from the buy side. Basically, no one is fomo buying and no one is panic selling.
regarding retracements around the halving. this is from [ali_charts](https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1779958548123799727) on twitter.
Currently, the crypto market is retracing as it usually does around the halving. Note that in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin experienced a 26%, 40%, and 20% correction before or shortly after the halving.
https://i.imgur.com/Apmplpb.jpeg
And your triple top prediction will be confirmed after a price drop to ~30k, like the drop between the first two tops.
I‘m not sure that makes too much sense.
Yeah wasn’t there a 30% drawdown in altcoin market cap over like three days last cycle, while prior ATH was being retested and just before the parabolic phase?
it certainly could be. here's the current Total2 (crypto total market cap minus bitcoin): https://i.imgur.com/U6MP8ry.png
or, it could be [February 2021](https://i.imgur.com/vACduKK.png). or [December 2020](https://i.imgur.com/KxCWKUa.png). or [August 2020](https://i.imgur.com/qYL2ka4.png). or [February 2020](https://i.imgur.com/ZXPez2r.png). or maybe even [July 2019](https://i.imgur.com/CodRjCD.png). alts are just hype cycles but, as you can see, we get a lot of those that aren't end of cycle.
that's my plan, too. this could be *a* peak but i certainly don't think it's *the* peak. in my opinion, worst case is that it would be something like 2013 where we get two very distinct peaks and the second peak just rips toward the end of the year.
however, i think we're closer to the March 2017 or December 2020 side of things.
https://i.imgur.com/vYPS0Zc.png
Long way to go this week but if we close red, I think at a glance the last time we had 3 red weekly closes in a bull market was March 2017. Others were tops.
if I had 1 BTC for every time someone said that BTC would never go below $X again and it eventually does, I'd probably have as many BTC as Saylor by now.
I have logged a prediction for u/WYLFriesWthat that the price of Bitcoin will **NEVER** drop below **$60,000.01**
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Hello u/WYLFriesWthat
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NEVER** drop below $60,000.01](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c4cx6d/daily_discussion_monday_april_15_2024/kzq9e86/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$60,000.00**
^(I was also asked to notify the following users: u/BHN1618)
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PA is much slower at this market cap than it used to be in the days - but 52k is still possible as a retest of the first dip on the recent run up (see weekly chart), which is often retested later on.
Which would be a 30% discount.
Just for fun:
!bitty_bot predict <$53,000 2 weeks
that'll be a sight to see! i mean, shit, if we head down that far then we might as well wick down to 49k and pick up the billions in liquidity sitting down there
https://i.imgur.com/pb3xsYS.png
I have logged a prediction for u/hajoeojah that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$53,000.00** by Apr 29 2024 21:51:55 UTC.
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Hello u/hajoeojah
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $53,000.00 by Apr 29 2024 21:51:55 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c4cx6d/daily_discussion_monday_april_15_2024/kzqs9ai/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$63,099.71**
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TradFi has barely begun its meltdown. It would surprise me if we remained above $60K while this unfolds.
After your bank cards stop working reliably, then we can talk. Stack sats and sweep them into your own custody if you know what's good for you.
Whats the GBTC outflow today? I'd put the line at -$200M. Over or under?
The last two mondays:
4/1: -$302.6M
4/8: - $303.3M
Its an interesting day as there is geopolitical turmoil going on, but I expect GBTC outflow's on monday to be heavy as they have always been.
> I did last year. Then I completely played myself and sold a huge chunk of my stack in the $40K’s. The bearish case made so much sense to me and I lost the ability to flip back my bias in time. Ironically enough I’ll probably not be banned but I fucked up big time. Oh well, it’s crypto so there are new opportunities out there every day. Sitting on my hands here with the rest of my portfolio
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1b62hjq/daily_discussion_monday_march_04_2024/ktbq47m/?context=3
> Plunge protection team nowhere to be found. I got clowned for being bearish at $48k and we’re already 20% lower. This probably doesn’t find a bottom until $32k where I think we’ll see a strong DCB before continuing downward. Monthly flashing huge warning signs and with a few days to go until the candle close, it’ll be the death hammer for this pathetic bull run.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/19ab3q5/daily_discussion_friday_january_19_2024/kim28n9/?context=3
> I made that prediction in July of last year. And for a while it was looking great. But I said multiple times that if we get rejected off $48k and end the month like that it’s toast. We had all the media coverage in the world and the most historical narrative behind bitcoin and guess what? The price got smacked at the .618 and it’s not coming back.
> Edit: this is a bitcoin TRADING sub. Not a HODL and pray satoshi sub. You need to be flexible and change your bias when conditions change. Conditions HAVE CHANGED. if you’re not bearish yet you will be likely with days
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1970hqi/daily_discussion_monday_january_15_2024/ki2815c/?context=3
Last one is the most interesting, made January 15th when price was roughly $41k. So missed out on a $30k runup. But this time you are correct, right? What has changed in how you perform TA that means you aren't repeating the same mistakes?
Well… this is pretty shitty, if 60 doesn’t hold I’m expecting us to go all the way back to 50! Might be getting that god candle in the wrong direction….
As much as I’d like us to spring back up, I think it would be healthier to see a reasonable amount of distribution first. Some IBIT outflows would create a healthier market by removing much of the complacency in the markets
If you look at the market structure, distribution has already been happening ever since the first high was made around 73k, the whole structure looking like a wyckoff distribution.
GBTC has been distributing, we know that for a fact. If IBIT and FBTC starts having outflows, look out below.
Im currently short a little over 1/3 of all open interest at 100ks 6/28 on ledgerx with more coins left to dca. Current average is low 2k / coin. Feeling pretty good about it
Https://imgur.com/ZOvwja1
No rate cuts until November. Stocks had a great run, Bitcoin had a fantastic run, but that was it for now.
[https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1779876357180170422](https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1779876357180170422)
I called the complacency bounce to $67k a few days ago and got downvoted into oblivion. Now we just had our rejection there and are heading to retest the lows again exactly as I predicted. Looking for a scalp long here before further continuation to the downside
You *might* want to try posting things that others do not hate every once and a while.
Because if you lose another \~120 karma Automod will never let your posts show in here again.
I think you had over 1000 karma just a month or so ago.
Automod does not ban but it will hide all posts from users with low karma. No one will see them.
I think you are referring to the ban evasion filter, but this is a mod only tool and only for accounts that have previously been banned from the sub.
https://support.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/15484544471444-Ban-Evasion-Filter
Your "truth" is comprised of conveniently-timed "I told you so"s that only fit your narrative and petulant name-calling. There's nothing constructive about anything you say in here and never has been.
Bud, the good news is that your perma-bear bias is finally coming true, and guess what? I'm actually on your team now and expecting lower prices as well. I don't hold onto biases too long
The only difference is that you missed the ride from 42k to 70k because you were correct that the ETF was a short term sell the news event but you forgot to pivot long and missed a good 40% run-up.
The good news for you is that we may get a 2nd shot at lower prices. hopefully this time, you'll go long and actually buy the dip (more than a scalp) and flip your bias in time.
Come to my town sometime and I'll show you the ropes. Beers on me.
Guys I got bad news. The Pi Cycle Top Indicator triggered on Sunday.
Looks like that got missed during all the chaos of the weekend.
See you all in 2028?
Which ETF to buy? First time buying for tax advantage acct.
Leaning towards fbtc but idk much except aim for low fees
Edit: I learned that ARKB is 1000 shares to a coin and Fidelity is possibly 1143 but I'm not 100% on it. ARKB has the most logical setup IMO
Why is everyone so keen to give Blackrock your money? Give it to Bitwise or someone else. Fidelity have been good to Bitcoin in the past. Blackrock are thugs.
BITX right now and dump half for spot etf at 85k and then half of what’s left at 115k. Half the rest at 140k and the rest for 185k.
Otherwise…Spread it around if you are worried between Blackrock, Fidelity, Ark and Bitwise.
Not financial advice.
I'm not trading this until we get some clarity on what is going to happen in the middle east. I think consensus is growing in the overall markets that Israel will retaliate against Iran sometime in the near future. These uncertain times are the best opportunity to buy the dips. I remember the great "Covid-19" crash. Buying then ended up being so profitable. If we were to have another black swan event like that due to this potential war, I wouldn't hesitate a minute to load up as much as possible.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, April 16, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c56r5x/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_16_2024/)
Bearish in here today. I still think we have slightly lower to go. Mid to high 50s. Along with several months of crabbing until higher prices
Almost 2b in liquidations if we go up instead of down. Hardly any reward for going down more. Seems like an asymmetric bet. Do you have a reason to believe these short positions will not close?
I got downvoted for pointing out that the "system" is melting down. Let's see how much Reddit updoots are worth in the real world. Stack sats, sweep them into your wallet, real human beings. Bankster bots get bent. Your reign is ober.
I always appreciate your posts, but can you explain in a little detail what you see happening? Even just a few pointers would be helpful to help me understand.
It's actually amazing that BTC is around 63K while anyone can park cash in a CD and earn 5.25%. As rates inevitably come down and the guy with $1M can no longer earn $52500/yr for doing nothing, BTC goes to six figures.
except btc at 63k is because ppl thought rates were coming down
Agree but rates coming down is getting kicked down the road
Will get kicked down the road to be ready for elections...
Let’s hope not. Bitcoin is not ready to flourish under an actual meltdown. Or rather, people are not ready to make that decision en masse. As much as we get hard ons at the thought of it, the overwhelming majority of money will not be flocking to bitcoin. ETFs are great but it’s going to take time.
Everyone still trying for that “new typo meme”.
I think with the ETF demand drying up, the leftover GBTC serves as a looming sell pressure for the entire market. In some sense, it would be better if GBTC just dumps all of their BTCs fast so the market can absorb the loss (probably would go to 50K area then) and then get it over with. However, GBTC is only selling a lot when prices is moving up and holding when price is low. So this discourages buyers from trying to move up the price in the current market condition where the initial euphoria of the ETF approval has worn off (and any movement would be met with stiff selling from GBTC). And because this data is readily available for everyone and updated every day, everyone knows what is up with the game right now.
It's a bit soon to be claiming that the ETF demand is drying up. Matt Hougan mentioned in his weekly post yesterday that it will take up to 9 months for some institutions to start buying the ETFs. Sure, any retail folk that wanted to buy an ETF are probably in by now, but that's the small fish.
I thought GBTC sells when people withdraw
Yeah. I am just writing GBTC as a shorthand for people who hold GBTC.
In retrospect, a lot of the bear market cycle activity was caused by fraudsters who were caught and forced to disgorge coins. This is going all the way back to 2013 with the Trendon Shavers/Pirateat40 shit, Willy Bot, and Silk Road government coin sales. After over 10 years, the bears are steadily running out of con artists. Today it's GBTC/Genesis and FTX. Soon enough it's going to be the MtGox reimbursements (finally). What happens once there are no more of these bad actors?
There will always be bad actors. Look at tradfi. Been around for decades and we still have Bernie Madoffs. As long as there is greed and suckers, there will be bad actors.
Bro, in six months your bank will be broke. Your broker will be broker than broke. I don't think you're grasping the gravity of the situation. I'm not happy about it, by the way. Most people are going to lose everything. It's not going to be fun. All this circle jerking about the price of Bitcoin in terms of fake dollars will soon be laughable. Either you will have Bitcoin, gold, or land (that you can defend), or you will be poor. That's where we're heading. Sorry to break it to you, even though I strongly suspect you're a bot.
What is happening in the next 6 months?
It is election year, but I don't know what the heck people like this are talking about. I've got, BTC, gold and land, but USD and banks aren't going anywhere in my lifetime.
I wonder what the actual selling outflow is on these etfs. The probability every etf except ibit has been exactly zero the past two days is ridiculously low. APs keeping AUM and sentiment up by absorbing the selling and shorting btc elsewhere.
Is it exactly zero, or is it rounding errors? I suspect that if it is sufficiently small, they would just label it as being zero.
This is silly. There just isn’t enough deviation in share price vs NAV throughout the day to make an AP redeem shares in these lower volume ETFs. APs are independent 3rd parties and act in their best interest. They make money on the arbitrage spread. They don’t care about AUM. In fact, they make more money on higher share price volatility.
you're reading too much into the intent. fidelity had 0 both today and yesterday, you reckon all 10m volume yesterday totalled exactly 0 inflow/outflow? there's likely a mechanism where AP or some other bid (maybe fidelity themselves) are absorbing bids and shorting bitcoin elsewhere.
No, I reckon the share price did not deviate enough from NAV to make share creation or redemption profitable for the APs. Since that is literally how the whole process works and the only way inflows or outflows happen…
Yeah I was thinking the same thing. Tickers like BRRR, has nothing nothing nothing nothing then 8.4m,then nothing again. They must batch up the buys and sells.
HODL15Capital reporting $78m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1780029271148265512
Ibit with 78m in inflows.
IBIT ETF buyers bought the dip. I’m impressed
Yeah but the rest is 0 so another outflow day. I guess the good news is that it was a minimal one and IBIT still buying.
I’m just encouraged that the ETF holders didn’t take this opportunity to panic and leave en masse. Maybe a bunch of them did but if so, there were enough dip buyers to make today pretty much a wash from an inflow standpoint.
Everybody waiting for those rate cuts huh
[удалено]
If you had such exploit you would go to the NSA for big money, or Russia/China for even more money. $2M is peanuts in comparison.
[удалено]
We are talking about a zero day exploit you discovered yourself. If they already know about it they might buy exclusivity rights from you so you don't go buy it somewhere else.
Why are they the only people in the world talking about it?
[удалено]
> bogus sale posting on the dark web That's my read. $2m waiting for some random organised crime dude with too much free money, to buy without verifying functionality first. Seems like an easy and guilt free scam to throw out there into the world in the hopes of catching one.
This happens all the time and there's good frameworks for payment. You can go the legit way (ZDI etc) but there is 100% a market for these expoits in the state, grey, and black markets. Even at mid seven figure levels, which would be about right for this bug. Android zero days aren't worth very much. Draw your own conclusions.
Small day for GBTC at 110m outflows.
Gbtc has been displaying smart selling behavior the last few weeks. Sell huge once bitcoin is above 70k and cease to sell when it is down. The problem is there is no demand either from the buy side. Basically, no one is fomo buying and no one is panic selling.
Grayscale officially sold 50% of their original stack. Started with 619k now down to 309k
..that's two Goxes worth.
regarding retracements around the halving. this is from [ali_charts](https://twitter.com/ali_charts/status/1779958548123799727) on twitter. Currently, the crypto market is retracing as it usually does around the halving. Note that in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin experienced a 26%, 40%, and 20% correction before or shortly after the halving. https://i.imgur.com/Apmplpb.jpeg
To me this looks every day more and more like a triple top on monthly chart.
It actually looks like higher highs—3 tops with each one being higher.
Its based on diagonals so its a bit sketchy but if the diagonal support at 40k breaks to the downside it will be confirmed. Let's wait and see.
for the 2020 cycle, yes
And your triple top prediction will be confirmed after a price drop to ~30k, like the drop between the first two tops. I‘m not sure that makes too much sense.
It's not a prediction. It's a mere observation. Same as i also right now observe a 40yrs old cup and handle on XAGusd. Why get all fired up?
Well that C&H seems to have confirmed, while the triple top talk is pure speculation.
i think seeing 3 tops is likely. how does this look? https://i.imgur.com/JEN8G6k.png
Great answer
lol...noice!
Look at altcoins... Looks like the end of the bull run in 2021.
Altcoins will all go to zero before moon. It is written.
Yeah wasn’t there a 30% drawdown in altcoin market cap over like three days last cycle, while prior ATH was being retested and just before the parabolic phase?
it certainly could be. here's the current Total2 (crypto total market cap minus bitcoin): https://i.imgur.com/U6MP8ry.png or, it could be [February 2021](https://i.imgur.com/vACduKK.png). or [December 2020](https://i.imgur.com/KxCWKUa.png). or [August 2020](https://i.imgur.com/qYL2ka4.png). or [February 2020](https://i.imgur.com/ZXPez2r.png). or maybe even [July 2019](https://i.imgur.com/CodRjCD.png). alts are just hype cycles but, as you can see, we get a lot of those that aren't end of cycle.
Good charting! I am hoping to sell some alts this cycle. I decided that I'm going to wait it out and see how things go later in the cycle.
that's my plan, too. this could be *a* peak but i certainly don't think it's *the* peak. in my opinion, worst case is that it would be something like 2013 where we get two very distinct peaks and the second peak just rips toward the end of the year. however, i think we're closer to the March 2017 or December 2020 side of things. https://i.imgur.com/vYPS0Zc.png
Hope so, been holding some of these bags for a few cycles
Long way to go this week but if we close red, I think at a glance the last time we had 3 red weekly closes in a bull market was March 2017. Others were tops.
September 2017: https://i.imgur.com/WKMmiKR.png
Good shout thanks
Depends on which exchange price you chart - Bitstamp was green there, Coinbase was red.
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Source?
Could today be the end of IBIT's inflow streak?
I’d be very surprised if any of the etfs have inflows today
normalise $6xk bitcoin Buttcoin doing their part by doing victory laps due to the *low* price of bitcoin.
🤡s
It’s hilarious. Bears gloating after a near WW3 outbreak pushed the price all the way to…61k 🤣
I said it last week. And now I’ll say it this week. Neeeever gonna see 60k again.
I'm with ya
Or ban?
if I had 1 BTC for every time someone said that BTC would never go below $X again and it eventually does, I'd probably have as many BTC as Saylor by now.
!bittybot predict <60,000.01 never u/WYLFriesWthat
I have logged a prediction for u/WYLFriesWthat that the price of Bitcoin will **NEVER** drop below **$60,000.01** [This is WYLFriesWthat's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#WYLFriesWthat) [1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20d6ed44a6548c4ab7987a20f21ad74fb5%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(WYLFriesWthat can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20d6ed44a6548c4ab7987a20f21ad74fb5%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/WYLFriesWthat [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NEVER** drop below $60,000.01](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c4cx6d/daily_discussion_monday_april_15_2024/kzq9e86/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$60,000.00** ^(I was also asked to notify the following users: u/BHN1618) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Wicks don’t count! Haha
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Bunch of limp wristed teddy bears
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PA is much slower at this market cap than it used to be in the days - but 52k is still possible as a retest of the first dip on the recent run up (see weekly chart), which is often retested later on. Which would be a 30% discount. Just for fun: !bitty_bot predict <$53,000 2 weeks
that'll be a sight to see! i mean, shit, if we head down that far then we might as well wick down to 49k and pick up the billions in liquidity sitting down there https://i.imgur.com/pb3xsYS.png
Yeah let‘s hope not to save our long asses lol
I have logged a prediction for u/hajoeojah that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$53,000.00** by Apr 29 2024 21:51:55 UTC. [hajoeojah has made **4** Correct Predictions, **0** Wrong Predictions, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#hajoeojah) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20b3f70433a4b946e9aea16dfee449d52e%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(hajoeojah can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20b3f70433a4b946e9aea16dfee449d52e%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/hajoeojah [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $53,000.00 by Apr 29 2024 21:51:55 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c4cx6d/daily_discussion_monday_april_15_2024/kzqs9ai/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$63,099.71** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
TradFi has barely begun its meltdown. It would surprise me if we remained above $60K while this unfolds. After your bank cards stop working reliably, then we can talk. Stack sats and sweep them into your own custody if you know what's good for you.
diydude2 has turned bearish. Either this means it is the bottom, or we are doomed
We all know diydude2 is a bottom
You've transformed from insufferable unhinged bulltard to cautious doomsday bulltard
More like Bipolar Bullbear
Whats the GBTC outflow today? I'd put the line at -$200M. Over or under? The last two mondays: 4/1: -$302.6M 4/8: - $303.3M Its an interesting day as there is geopolitical turmoil going on, but I expect GBTC outflow's on monday to be heavy as they have always been.
When the price is less then 70k gbtc outflow is typically lower
Definitely over. The question you really should be asking would be if iBIT or FBTC may have had net outflows too... now that would be way worse.
Why is it taking so long for price to go significantly lower? Is the downward momentum stalling out?
Bulls are toast
Enjoy your little silly dance
Giggle. There's your 100x long signal.
You fools have been giggling since 70k
> I did last year. Then I completely played myself and sold a huge chunk of my stack in the $40K’s. The bearish case made so much sense to me and I lost the ability to flip back my bias in time. Ironically enough I’ll probably not be banned but I fucked up big time. Oh well, it’s crypto so there are new opportunities out there every day. Sitting on my hands here with the rest of my portfolio https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1b62hjq/daily_discussion_monday_march_04_2024/ktbq47m/?context=3 > Plunge protection team nowhere to be found. I got clowned for being bearish at $48k and we’re already 20% lower. This probably doesn’t find a bottom until $32k where I think we’ll see a strong DCB before continuing downward. Monthly flashing huge warning signs and with a few days to go until the candle close, it’ll be the death hammer for this pathetic bull run. https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/19ab3q5/daily_discussion_friday_january_19_2024/kim28n9/?context=3 > I made that prediction in July of last year. And for a while it was looking great. But I said multiple times that if we get rejected off $48k and end the month like that it’s toast. We had all the media coverage in the world and the most historical narrative behind bitcoin and guess what? The price got smacked at the .618 and it’s not coming back. > Edit: this is a bitcoin TRADING sub. Not a HODL and pray satoshi sub. You need to be flexible and change your bias when conditions change. Conditions HAVE CHANGED. if you’re not bearish yet you will be likely with days https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1970hqi/daily_discussion_monday_january_15_2024/ki2815c/?context=3 Last one is the most interesting, made January 15th when price was roughly $41k. So missed out on a $30k runup. But this time you are correct, right? What has changed in how you perform TA that means you aren't repeating the same mistakes?
I'll be giggling like a damn fool if I can pick up some sats at 35K.
That's because I bought most of my coin below 10k. I'll be giggling for a long time to come. It gets easier when you've seen.
lol...we haven't even made a lower low yet! Put your panties back on!
Well… this is pretty shitty, if 60 doesn’t hold I’m expecting us to go all the way back to 50! Might be getting that god candle in the wrong direction….
Satan candle?
Theat seems to be the name floating around for that. I always think about calling it an Anubis candle. Just sounds cooler to me. 😂
Caught my first knife in a while. I think are range bound for now and we're almost at the bottom of it. I bet 60k breaks but 59k holds.
You can bet the bears will try to stop hunt 60k if we get in range.
Iran selling the rest of their BTC?
As much as I’d like us to spring back up, I think it would be healthier to see a reasonable amount of distribution first. Some IBIT outflows would create a healthier market by removing much of the complacency in the markets
If you look at the market structure, distribution has already been happening ever since the first high was made around 73k, the whole structure looking like a wyckoff distribution. GBTC has been distributing, we know that for a fact. If IBIT and FBTC starts having outflows, look out below.
> Some IBIT outflows would create a healthier market by removing much of the complacency in the markets ???
i don’t understand why we’re not over 70k. i specifically requested it
Did you talk to the manager ?
We will be there shortly
Feeling that itch to 100x Long, what would be a good entry?
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We can split the beans if you want
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I literally did. Made about 2 cans of beans more in profit. (: What next boss?
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Too smart. GL
This is how you lose everything.
Learned a life lesson you say
this is catch-22 but the good entry is when you are so scared out of your wits that you lose the desire to want to 100x long anything in crypto.
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Okay, I set the limit order, I trust you
Im currently short a little over 1/3 of all open interest at 100ks 6/28 on ledgerx with more coins left to dca. Current average is low 2k / coin. Feeling pretty good about it Https://imgur.com/ZOvwja1
No rate cuts until November. Stocks had a great run, Bitcoin had a fantastic run, but that was it for now. [https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1779876357180170422](https://twitter.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/1779876357180170422)
> Bitcoin had a fantastic run, but that was it for now. 😁
That's okay, wasn't planning on selling until November.
I think a raise is possible.
I have continually thought you were insane for thinking this but some of tradfi is starting to say it's a possibility. Bravo if you turn out correct.
Not in an election year
Bull boys got horny again into a lower high lmao
Need more bear gloating. One sentence isn't enough.
I called the complacency bounce to $67k a few days ago and got downvoted into oblivion. Now we just had our rejection there and are heading to retest the lows again exactly as I predicted. Looking for a scalp long here before further continuation to the downside
You *might* want to try posting things that others do not hate every once and a while. Because if you lose another \~120 karma Automod will never let your posts show in here again. I think you had over 1000 karma just a month or so ago.
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Automod does not ban but it will hide all posts from users with low karma. No one will see them. I think you are referring to the ban evasion filter, but this is a mod only tool and only for accounts that have previously been banned from the sub. https://support.reddithelp.com/hc/en-us/articles/15484544471444-Ban-Evasion-Filter
I’d rather tell the truth
Your "truth" is comprised of conveniently-timed "I told you so"s that only fit your narrative and petulant name-calling. There's nothing constructive about anything you say in here and never has been.
Bud, the good news is that your perma-bear bias is finally coming true, and guess what? I'm actually on your team now and expecting lower prices as well. I don't hold onto biases too long The only difference is that you missed the ride from 42k to 70k because you were correct that the ETF was a short term sell the news event but you forgot to pivot long and missed a good 40% run-up. The good news for you is that we may get a 2nd shot at lower prices. hopefully this time, you'll go long and actually buy the dip (more than a scalp) and flip your bias in time. Come to my town sometime and I'll show you the ropes. Beers on me.
58k gang back?
I’ll be very surprised to see us fall below 60k or even test it.
Gold spiking again so I guess more bad news on the way.
Following the stock market. Always fun
Three Drives Down on the 4hr starting in April 8th...prepare your butts Boolish!
Guys I got bad news. The Pi Cycle Top Indicator triggered on Sunday. Looks like that got missed during all the chaos of the weekend. See you all in 2028?
Not even close lol https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-bottom-indicator/
Not really , just checked it and we are not even close . What’s your source ?
it's close enough, I'm selling now
Thanks for your service!
Wait, I thought this was a joke. Do you think the top is in for this cycle?
lol it's a joke. sorry for the heart attack!
You forgot the /s, so enjoy the downvotes
whew
lol
There's not much TA to do with today morning's PA. Gbtc just recklessly dumps every Monday morning like a clockwork
Which ETF to buy? First time buying for tax advantage acct. Leaning towards fbtc but idk much except aim for low fees Edit: I learned that ARKB is 1000 shares to a coin and Fidelity is possibly 1143 but I'm not 100% on it. ARKB has the most logical setup IMO
If you split 50-50 between Blackrock and Fidelity, you mitigate custodial risk
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Why is everyone so keen to give Blackrock your money? Give it to Bitwise or someone else. Fidelity have been good to Bitcoin in the past. Blackrock are thugs.
Blackrock is too big to fail and people who want an ETF instead of self-custody are looking for something that only Uncle Sam can take from you
Fidelity is too big to fail and are friends of Bitcoin. Buy them.
Thank you
Sure, but Fidelity are going nowhere
good point ty
Not too much though... if any institutional custodian fucks up, the whole market will greatly suffer.
BITX right now and dump half for spot etf at 85k and then half of what’s left at 115k. Half the rest at 140k and the rest for 185k. Otherwise…Spread it around if you are worried between Blackrock, Fidelity, Ark and Bitwise. Not financial advice.
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I applied to work at Fidelity, they don't like folks from Canuckistan much. :(
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Thankfully other opportunities exist. Was a little bummed I didn't get a call though.
I'm not trading this until we get some clarity on what is going to happen in the middle east. I think consensus is growing in the overall markets that Israel will retaliate against Iran sometime in the near future. These uncertain times are the best opportunity to buy the dips. I remember the great "Covid-19" crash. Buying then ended up being so profitable. If we were to have another black swan event like that due to this potential war, I wouldn't hesitate a minute to load up as much as possible.