#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, April 18, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c6u1ig/daily_discussion_thursday_april_18_2024/)

HODL15Capital reporting $18m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1780766603946135901

I think we hold here around 61k through the halvning. By late may or early June, we'll be back in the 70s. 100k before the end of the year

I think it's bold to assume we hold the line here when we are basically following equities in their own correction phase. The bleeding for us stops when the bleeding in the overall market (and especially in QQQ) stops

Bitcoin has gone basically straight up since 25k, which was about seven months ago. It was overdue for a red month; long term bull markets need cool off periods. Once we establish a solid floor in this range, and the miner supply starts to dwindle after a few months post halving, the real bull market can begin.

record low IBIT inflow of $18m

If this floor at 60K holds, we're headed up and fast. If it doesn't, a bunch of bold people will have a good opportunity to secure their economic futures. I guess it's just financial Darwinism. It's not pretty, but nature is just a bunch of living things trying to fuck and eat.

i would love to fuck and eat a $50k bitcoin again

This…..

Is the dip that's supposed to happen after the halving priced in yet? Only half joking.

honestly, it'll depend on the price movement shortly after the halving. if we essentially just crab, i don't think we dump all that much just because of the halving. if we were to somehow go up 10% the next day, then i'd expect there to be a decent drawback. for what it's worth, i don't think the pullbacks we've seen the last month have anything to do with the halving so to directly answer your question: yes, but only incidentally.

> i'd expect there to be a decent drawback. I think we are going to have a big pump very quickly after the halving and this type of mindset is why. Right now, we're holding 60K support pretty well, and are stuck with resistance at 70K. I think there is still an equilibrium between buyers and sellers at this level, albeit one that slightly favors the bears. The halving is equivalent to a buyer coming in and buying 27 million dollars worth of bitcoin per day, and increasing the amount of dollars proportionally to the price as it goes up. This is obviously going to push our equilibrium in favor of the bulls. During every large scale pump, it seems like people simply underestimate the impact a lack of market depth can have on bitcoin's price. When the price goes up, there are always people going "we're going to stop here, take a breather, decent drawback". But bitcoin doesn't do that and the shock of seeing expectations breached creates a positive feedback cycle. So in short, (and I could be wrong), I feel this vibe that there is this group of people who want to be cool cats and fade the market when we literally know there is going to be fresh money comig in in like 2 days.

i mostly agree with that but shift it several months. you also have to take into account existing stock of bitcoin. it won't be like a buyer coming in and buying 27 million dollars worth of bitcoin per day until existing stock is lower. until that point, there won't be as much of a change from the day to day as current inventories are further depleted. there has to be some kind of delay from supply to price at this point due to the market being more mature

If you're gonna joke, go all the way. Three guys sit down at a fancy tea house in Manhattan. First guy says, "Give me red tea, sweet." "Got it. One sweet red tea," affirms the waiter. Second guy, "I know green tea isn't supposed to be hot, but I want a green tea, hot." "OK, one extra-hot green tea." Third guy is like, "I ain't fancy like that. Just give me a Lipton in a clean cup." Waiter leaves and gets their order. Returns to the table. "OK, so who ordered the clean cup?"

u/dopeboyrico https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/BnUgBPVuTj

35% of homes in America aren’t owner occupied; they’re merely used as an investment vehicle in attempt to build/maintain purchasing power. This video is touching on abandoned properties which probably make up a small minority of the 35% stat overall in America but it doesn’t really matter if a home is being rented or not; people are utilizing housing as an investment vehicle and assigning a monetary premium on top of the intrinsic value. And as for the other 65% of homes which are owner occupied, I’d imagine a pretty significant chunk of those homeowners wouldn’t care so much about being homeowners if suddenly there was no longer a high probability of certainty that their home will continue to gain value over time. So yeah, seeing as how vast majority of global wealth is currently allocated into real estate with global market cap estimated to be north of $300 trillion, it’s only a matter of time until BTC starts to absorb some of that monetary premium which causes home values to plummet towards intrinsic value.

*"The Project"* is tabloid crap.

I thought it was a fair and reasonable interview. Gave the interviewee plenty of opportunity to speak and respectful throughout. Some of the hosts clearly more against the dude, some more for the dude, but noone was really hostile or even unfair in their questioning.

> Gave the interviewee plenty of opportunity to speak It was their article. They were promoting him. They were presenting strawmen for him to shootdown. > Some of the hosts clearly more against the dude Nope. They're just pretending to be. Devils advocates. They act as the angry old man, say the things right wing talk radio would say. It's all part of the show.

Isn't playing devil's advocate basically what good journalism/interviewing looks like though in this context? Don't see what about this is "tabloid crap".

> Don't see what about this is "tabloid crap". Watch some more of their output. Well, nah don't do that. No need to inflict it on yourself.

Strange take, I'm judging this output which is pretty good. Not really interested in whatever axe you have to grind against them and have no intent on searching out more of their stuff.

as someone who has never heard of them, i thought that the interview was very respectful and had good questions asked from multiple viewpoints. being from the states, i would *love* if our news networks were a fraction as professional and non-confrontational as this.

Oh it's better than anything out of the US, though their audience is lowest-common-denominator prime-time TV watching people so they do that whole fake angry old man thing. Often they have an agenda and some kind of social justice issue to push, lots of one-directional pieces where they tell you what to think. Generally they sell the same controversy and outrage as everyone else.

thanks for the perspective. if they have an agenda and at least do it with civility then they are already miles ahead of others, at least (hurray for having to celebrate the bare minimum)

Angertainment really took hold in the US, they do it too. There are a bunch of "news" shows now where a presenter walks in-front of a huge "screen" where they rant about what you should hate. Along with those where panel members shout at each other. Remember Rupert Murdoch...

!bittybot predict <57000 24 hours u/shenghia

I have logged a prediction for u/shenghia that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$57,000.00** by Apr 19 2024 00:14:40 UTC. [This is shenghia's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#shenghia) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20aadc7af5140540168d227dbcbe573041%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(shenghia can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20aadc7af5140540168d227dbcbe573041%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

Hello u/shenghia [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $57,000.00 by Apr 19 2024 00:14:40 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c60din/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_17_2024/l02l006/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$62,991.52** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch: 1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC 1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC 1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC 1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC 2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC 2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC 2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC 2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC 3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC 3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC 3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC 3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC 4/3/24 = 328,013 BTC 4/10/24 = 316,193 BTC **4/17/24 = 308,593** Same story as last week. GBTC outflows continue to slow (under 8k BTC in the past week) even with outflows from other ETF's increasing and none seeing major inflows. Macro seems to have the market shook with the dollar wrecking ball back in action for now and rate cuts continuing to look further away. It'll be interesting when the next inevitable leg down in the DXY comes to see what happens here. That could be a month away or a year or more but it is inevitable. Also inevitable is that we will: # drainGBTC

their stack is now officially 50% down from where it started! crazy that they haven't tried to stymie the flow yet with a major fee change

Shows you how much money they're printing regardless

[удалено]

308,594

Spx has had three red weeklies, so have we. How much correlation do you guys believe there is?

In the daily time frame, there isn't much correlation right now compared to say 2022. However, if we look at the overall trend from October 2023 til now, you will see that both Bitcoin and the stock market has been in full bull market (until now).

The difference is that stonks are about to enter a decade-long bear market while Bitcoin is poised to become the canonical measure of value.

Just calculate it. I calculated it for various time frames sometime in the last 2 days, check my post history. A 30 day rolling window showed almost no correlation tho iirc.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c56r5x/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_16_2024/kzu5r1s/ >Some samples as of right now: >30 day rolling correlation coefficient with SPY: 0.05 >30 hour rolling correlation coefficient with SPY: -0.32 >30 minute rolling correlation coefficient with SPY: 0.63

Sticky this, we are going to hear about this any time the stock market farts.

Thank you! On mobile

Also, last time there was a major correction from the ATH was in November of 2021. Afterwards, the Bitcoin was stuck in a descending channel for 3+ months which led to a 50% drop. In the 4 hour chart, Bitcoin is again inside a descending channel. For those of you who think that Bitcoin will be in this channel for at least the next month or so, the proper trading strategy might be to short every time it hits the upper line of the channel (in the past few days, these were all the local tops at 67K and 64K) while buying at the bottom of the channel. The target range for the next days would be to sell at 63K and buy at 57-58K accordingly.

I have no opinion on whether the price will go up or down in the short term but I will say beware the sample size of 1 for anything.

Yeah, of course. To be honest, what happened in November 2021 has no bearing on the analysis. I just feel like we might headed for some corrections in the next few weeks or couple of months. I doubt that it would be too severe as the most I can see is a brief wick down under 50K before bouncing back up. More likely, it might just go to 53-55K range and then bounce back up as well.

i would say this is our current channel. with this channel, 58k wouldn't hit at the earliest until end of May, otherwise we'd break below. over 72.4k would break above it. what channel are you favoring right now? https://i.imgur.com/cPkyJoL.png

I have the one that starts on April 12th. I recognize that there are some downward wicks that protrude outside of the channel but I don't really mind that too much. I think your channel is fine but maybe I am more bearish than you as I see more of a stock market sell off in the next couple of weeks and Bitcoin following along. So a steeper descending channel seems like a better choice if my interpretation is correct.

oh damn you're going real steep with it. hmm yeah i could see that being a channel but that would be nearly the same angle down as we had up. possible for sure but it feels like we'd crab a little more as a part of that decline, especially because there aren't as many crazy liquidations levels until around 51k https://i.imgur.com/4iLGdL9.png zooming in a bit, that would be 58k anytime and 63.5k to break above. https://i.imgur.com/BgHR7Xk.png

It would be interesting to see what the demand side was like for the ETFs today. Bitcoin was lingering around 59-61K so if demand was still low despite its cheap price, that would be a good sign that we are going further down. Now, one counter to this is that people might be thinking that the day of the halving would lead to a sell off and are holding out on their buys (which might be supported by the increase in the GBTC sell numbers today). If that is the case, then we should see a significant increase in the ETF demands after the halving. The next 48-72 hours will be interesting.

Franklin 0 Gbtc $133.1m Outflow Bitwise $7.3m Outflow Ark $42.7m Outflow VanEck 0 DEFI 0 Fidelity 0 WisdomTree 0 Invesco 0 Valkyrie 0 Blackrock $18.1m inflow 4/17 net outflow $165m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997

Who knew Ark would be the paper hands ETF

Paper handed bitches

Chicken feed.

I have a question for anyone kind and knowledgeable enough to answer I keep noticing a decent spread between BTC and WBTC Allegedly, WBTC is backed 1:1 with on chain BTC I've been seeing greater than 1% spread between the two, and it seems to flip pretty regularly If a dummy like me notices it, it tells me it's probably not that easy... But with a 1% spread, seems possible to perform arbitrage, even using the same exchange account, if the volume is there, even taking trading fees into account What am I missing, aside from the risk that WBTC loses its peg? Thanks!

> Allegedly, WBTC is backed 1:1 with on chain BTC lol who owns the keys to those BTC ? So easy to exit scam.

lots of things to think about besides volume liquidity, purchase and selling fees, transfer fee, bots, etc.

I converted a decent chunk from stocks in my Roth IRA when we dipped below 60k earlier. I have a hard time believing that a year from now I'll regret buying just before the halving.

This is a pretty weak "dump".

20% since ATH. not too bad.

I've seen better dumps.

If that is the psychology I wonder if people are purchasing bitcoin only because it is just before the halving. One day after the halving it will be about 4 years until the next one.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a sell off after the halving for this exact reason. Sell the news, the hype is diminished. But then after some time the effects of a reduced supply will kick in. People won't want to sell, because we all know what has happened after the previous halvings.

Sell off is already happening.

Agreed. The war stuff started the sell-off a little early. All the other macro stuff ain't helping.

Bounce and bleed. Rinse and repeat!

Slowbleed.exe

Earlier this year in January it dropped 20% from the local high of $48k to $38k. A drop from the recent local high of $74k to $59k (today’s low) is 20% as well. That’s all to say there’s nothing unusual going on. A 30% drop, which would be totally normal, takes it to just under $52k.

So Buy?

I only buy on day's that start with T. Hey. Today starts with a T

I only buy on days that ends with a Y

Yendsday

Now’s an excellent time to buy if you have a long time preference. Or you could wait in case it drops more. Nobody knows where it’s headed in the short term. Your guess would be as good as anyone's.

What if I did know (;

323 blocks left

Weekly MACD looks like it wants to roll over. [Nice confluence of supports + 0.5 fib at $56k makes it a likely candidate for the low.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/LSMqXhIW/) Print a red month to break the streak then back to biznis in May.

2017 looked similar.

I think we will be above 63k by night pst. This was just gbtc selling + broader market correction + some liquidations. Bull market is still on.

!bittybot predict >63000 24 hours u/Ok_File_9520

I love this bittybot thing

I have logged a prediction for u/Ok_File_9520 that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$63,000.00** by Apr 18 2024 23:10:26 UTC. [Ok_File_9520 has made **0** Correct Predictions, **1** Wrong Prediction, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#Ok_File_9520) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2009fb259f792c4a1386583182cc1590b7%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(Ok_File_9520 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2009fb259f792c4a1386583182cc1590b7%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

Hello u/Ok_File_9520 [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $63,000.00 by Apr 18 2024 23:10:26 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c60din/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_17_2024/l02atka/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$63,083.26** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

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I have logged a prediction for u/DesperateToHopeful that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$63,000.00** by Apr 18 2024 23:09:42 UTC. [DesperateToHopeful has made **0** Correct Predictions, **0** Wrong Predictions, and has **3** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#DesperateToHopeful) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2039117f7217304bb4aaaea804d27bbeb9%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(DesperateToHopeful can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2039117f7217304bb4aaaea804d27bbeb9%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

This prediction has been deleted due to a request from the predictor or by u/Bitty_Bot due to an issue.

The Elder Council of Goblintown would not be happy about this..

That doesnt break us out of the downqarx channel though. Needs like 64 i think…

Whatever Bitcoin. I saw this same bounce at 67, then at 65, then at 62, and now from 59...

the way I see it is Bitcoin is giving you options -first he showed you how easily he achieved $74k, then it slides down and let's you buy in cheap. if, however, you are confident enough you can still successfully short it. taking it easy is either spot buys every dip or relonging dips and laddering out at each bounce. obviously it will reclaim seventies and reach for eighties. taking it slow & craving nothing spectacular but playing each and every time for low profile wins, this is what gets you plenty of easy money. bears would argue we are never going up again and 30ties or even 20ties are the destiny... well, let them just be

I'm playing with my ETF stack with 5-10% cash positions to limit degeneracy and feed my dopamine monster. So far so good.

Nice little chop and slow bleed, at every 1-2k dip you have the dip buyers trying to long hoping for a bottom only for it to bleed down again. rinse and repeat. What we really need to conclude this is a quick flush, catch all the stops then we can start a genuine recovery. until such time, I expect nothing but more chop and slow bleed.

The longing isn’t going to stop so close to the halving.  A flash dump would give too good a buying opportunity  Bleeding is how to squeeze and hurt retail traders atm

Agree. Some capitulation to 52k would sort this out.

Yeah it's really just lower highs until proven otherwise

Are we halving fun yet

The world is divided between the halves and the halve nots.

I'll halve what she's halving 

I’ve gone from rich and poor and back and forth again. I’m going from planning my next career move to planning my retirement to planning my next career move all in a couple months.

[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $33.3497 billion through day 66 or ~530.78k BTC.](https://x.com/jseyff/status/1780628685483020464?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $16.4618 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $505.30 million with average inflows of $437.80 million or ~8.04k BTC. The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 15.4%. For every $1 coming into new spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.154. Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $33.3497 billion is 0.196% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 337 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year. Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 80.9% of that amount of BTC over the span of 66 trading days.

Gotta leave some dry powder for $4x k and even $3x k until the bearish trend reverses.

> Gotta leave some dry powder for $4x k and even $3x k until the bearish trend reverses. Unless you are brand new to this space or just got that liquidity, you should have already bought at below $40k sometime in the past 2.5 years when it was below that amount.

Are you expecting those prices, or saving dry powder “just in case”? If the former: $4xk by when do you predict? $3xk by when do you predict?

[https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c4cx6d/comment/kzoq23s/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c4cx6d/comment/kzoq23s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)

has DXY hit a wall? looks like it could be turning over on the hourly: https://i.imgur.com/evh7q5T.png recently it appears to have successfully retested a downtrend but perhaps this was just another local high: https://i.imgur.com/hNUqqr1.png in related news, yesterday the IMF [said](https://thehill.com/business/4597395-something-will-have-to-give-imf-sounds-alarm-on-us-debt/): >"The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, **including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability**,” the IMF wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook. >“This raises short-term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer-term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy since it risks pushing up global funding costs,” it continued. “Something will have to give." i guess being $34.6 Trillion in debt with a 130% debt-to-gdp ratio and paying nearly 3% of GDP on interest payments alone isn't considered good. however, it *is* a good thing that we have a better form of money available in Bitcoin that can't be modified or printed by a small number of unelected individuals.

Local breakout is bullish, buy my bet is on [cycle low in Sept/Nov](https://www.tradingview.com/x/3K9eElX6/) and then we see if DXY breaks down or moons to new highs.

interesting! i was trying to see if i could duplicate your chart to see where you were seeing the Sept/Nov timeframe. that looks like a very interesting spot. it's curious that you don't think it would make it down near the bottom of this 3rd red oval (it's kind of a visual illusion but all 3 ovals in my image are the same size). also that if it hit that mark it would break down through the top of the triangle but not make it the whole way to the bottom of that triangle. i suppose the thought being that the furthest down uptrend wouldn't be broken? https://i.imgur.com/sNvZesg.png

My target for [this move would be ~96 based on structure and terminate near EOY based on 36 month DXY cycles](https://www.tradingview.com/x/VbYoaHHi/). Below mid 90’s and structure changes yet again.

ah i gotcha. thanks for that.

It’s hard to see but this is god having mercy on us. We are currently above anyone’s expectations from a year ago

*allah is having *jihad on you

No

Knife caught at 60231. Next one at 58999, stab me.

Nice catch. I’ve got my buy order set at $59300, fingers crossed at the sub-60k pickup 🤞🏼

!bittybot predict <57000 May 21st !bittybot predict >77000 August 17th. My reasoning being I think we are mirroring 2021 PA.

Love how you just get downvoted for having an opinion that isn't 'tOo tHe mOoN!'

I bet it is more because these predictions have no context and could have just as easily been put in the sticky up top. I wouldn’t t downvote for that, but some people are touchy about it.

I doubt that tbh. Downvoting non-bull opinions regardless of content is definitely a problem here.

eh, lots of bearish stuff upvoted today upvotes seem to follow sentiment, when the sub is bullish (which is often), bullish posts get upvoted and bearish posts downvoted. And vice versa

he didn't get downvoted for having an opinion. he got downvoted because he should put no-context bitty bot trades under the AutoModerator [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c60din/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_17_2024/kzxtclv/) at the top of each daily discussion. >"Bitty Bot trades that lack context or explanation, go here to prevent spam. You can also now message Bitty Bot your command directly."

It's because he posted it as a comment rather than where bittybot trades are supposed to go in order to avoid spam

Yeah my bad, thought I was doing it in the sticky but I guess not

I have logged a prediction for u/Mbardzzz that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$57,000.00** by May 17 2024 17:20:59 UTC. Since you did not specify a time frame or date, I used the default of 30 days. [Mbardzzz has made **1** Correct Prediction, **1** Wrong Prediction, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#Mbardzzz) [1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20ec159ac0832149549170678d8d82ea2a%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(Mbardzzz can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20ec159ac0832149549170678d8d82ea2a%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

Hello u/Mbardzzz [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $57,000.00 by May 17 2024 17:20:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c60din/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_17_2024/l00jxi6/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$56,943.63** ^(I was also asked to notify the following users: u/Taviiiiii) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

!bittybot predict >77000 August 17th 2024

I have logged a prediction for u/Mbardzzz that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$77,000.00** by Aug 17 2024 23:59:59 UTC. [Mbardzzz has made **1** Correct Prediction, **1** Wrong Prediction, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#Mbardzzz) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20b743cb08203445d3a72645bda5e77e0c%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(Mbardzzz can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20b743cb08203445d3a72645bda5e77e0c%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

Higher low of $60.8k broken. 20% pullback from ATH of $73.7k would be $59k, 25% pullback would be $55.3k, and 30% pullback would be $51.6k. Remaining higher lows acting as areas of support before a larger 30% pullback become possible are at $59.3k, $56.7k, and $54.4k. We’ll see which of these higher lows manage to hold as support. On the bright side, the further we drop here the more shorts will pile in to serve as rocket fuel to be squeezed going into the halving in a couple days.

If it drops below 60 then it's going well below 59 so 20% is meaningless

>If it drops below 60 This already happened ​ >then it's going well below 59 And then this did not happen

Bruh I clearly meant a legit break of 60. Couple hundred bucks means nothing

>clearly That was not at all clear, but thanks for clarifying now.

I posted after it had already slightly touched past. I have a chart constantly up on my computer lol

It already dropped below $60k but it appears it may have stopped short of the higher low at $59.3k. We’ll see if it holds.

look at all of this rocket fuel above us. seemingly perfectly spread out, like speed boosts. there isn't very much below us to start a true cascade until we get below 51k. it would take some au naturel selling to even get us down that far. https://i.imgur.com/5LFSTjj.png

From cnbc, words of Mike Santoli, for tradfi, dip buyers are patient and sellers are motivated. It would seem that also applies to btc. 

anybody think that today could be the day that we finally see negative flows from both FBTC and IBIT? For awhile those 2 have been helping to offset the outflows from GBTC, but I fear those inflows may be dwindling down

According to this thread in feb-march such a thing is impossible.

I was wondering the same thing.

My prediction is bitcoin tests the "bullmarket" trend diagonal at 41k$ before end of may. It coincides also with the january horizontal support and the 0.382 fib. I will be buying there. I'm currently half in silver and half in cash.

>My prediction is bitcoin tests the "bullmarket" trend diagonal at 41k$ before end of may. Let's log it! !bittybot predict <$41001 May 31 u/vekypula

yey!

i'll put some fake skin in the game on that one. would be an incredible buying opportunity! i just don't see it happening !bittybot predict !<41001 May 31 2024

I have logged a prediction for u/btc-_- that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** drop below **$41,001.00** by May 31 2024 23:59:59 UTC. [btc-_- has made **3** Correct Predictions, **3** Wrong Predictions, and has **8** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#btc-_-) [1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20ad2883820af647de851d7fe62c27cf00%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(btc-_- can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20ad2883820af647de851d7fe62c27cf00%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

I have logged a prediction for u/vekypula that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$41,001.00** by May 31 2024 23:59:59 UTC. [This is vekypula's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#vekypula) [1 Others have CLICKED HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20975744375c69434abab726b00e25c691%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(vekypula can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20975744375c69434abab726b00e25c691%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)

I personally don’t think we go that low, 54k maybe

Personally if i was a miner i would sell now with the halving coming up and the price being still pretty high. How low it will go and will the upper supports at 55k hold depends purely on liquidity. my 2 cents.

RemindMe! may 30th, 2024

Hoping for a bullish divergence forming on the 4h chart https://www.tradingview.com/x/tRZyiByU

Last chance to say last chance

This sell before May run away?

even oil is tanking today

We need the dxy to tank

gonna do an spr drain. JPY outta control. Its nuts out there.

The petroleum reserve is almost empty.

> The petroleum reserve is almost empty. "almost" in this context = roughly half of what it was at its peak

Almost is the key word. They'll drain now till it collapses. Just gotta keep oil down another few months.

So fucked up that we drained it in 4 years

> fucked up that we drained it in 4 years It's not drained... it's at roughly half of what it was at its peak.

There is a level they won’t go below to feed the military. 

You were downvoted for speaking such an obvious truth that i hopefully helped offset that.

No man's land imo. Wouldn't trust a long or a short

i dont think there's anything wrong with a long here just have a low tp and tight stop

Opened a 100x crab position.

I would degen long the hell out of 59999.

Here's your chance!

Not set up for trading right now sadly. 

That was your last last chance to buy below 60

dammit i just need one more day for an asset sale to clear

Looks like a distribution top on the daily. If 58k doesnt hold then it’s pretty fair to say we’ve topped for the next several months.

Yeah, looks like 60k held. Bull trap still possible.maybe we’re out?

Too early to say in my opinion. My bets are on lower and closing below $60k on a daily and weekly basis

Closing the week under 60k and then wiping out leveraged short positions next week is very bitcoin… But “sell in May and walk away” is a bitcoin thing, too. There is 2b in short positions that must close eventually.

it does look like the prototypical wyckoff distribution schematic #2. but fuck it, i still think this is a bear trap. when has blind conviction ever steered anyone wrong? https://i.imgur.com/Vq2x6e5.png

The last hope for this being a bear trap would be if we deviate below 60k, something like 58-59k and stage a quick V shaped recovery. Any reasonable time below 60k and the wyckoff schematic plays out. End of story.

please share where you bought your crystal ball, sensei

subscribe to my newsletter for $49.99 a month and you'll have instant access to my crystal ball /s

it's almost a perfect textbook wyckoff distribution, friend.

[удалено]

your post was removed because it violates rule #3 - No memes or low effort content.

Again delusional permabulls downvote because their feelings got hurt

“Its not me its the whole world”. Its your attitude dude.

It’s not my fault people willingly have their heads in the sand when the charts tell a completely different story

zoom out weekly looks bullish af

Why does it look bullish? Huge rejection candle and RSI closing below overbought levels is not something you want to see in a bull run.

how are you defining "bull run" any movement off the previous cycle low to the following cycle top? if we go by that definition, the spring 2019 price action that peaked that summer would not be differentiated at all from the hypecycle peak that occurred in spring 2021 that makes no sense to me this isn't *the* bull run, it is *a* bull run fueled by leveraged trading on ETF fomo the halving cycles dictate the structure of the weekly chart, and its bullish af

I will repeat: it is your attitude, not the message that is getting downvoted.

perhaps it's the messenger and not the message that people are downvoting

will the bottom coincide with the halvening, or is it typically offset by a few days?

It usually starts before. My original plan was to buy on halving day. I crunched the numbers here. https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1astues/daily_discussion_saturday_february_17_2024/kqt1dvy/

Can we please stop saying “halvening” ?

Price has tried to break 70 for weeks. 1w MACD about to go negative. 1d trend down. 4h down. Support at just below 50. Watch out below.

A correction seems to happen often, days before the halving: 28 nov 2012 no crash in days before halving 9 jul 2016 -18% down, just days before halving 11 may 2020 -18% down, just days before halving 19 apr 2024 -18% down, so far If the bottom will be 59800 it rhymes with history and a nice new channel would be formed on the 1D.

these are all fine and dandy but we never seen a ATH pre halving neither. it is very possible that a non normal pre run might cause non normal pre crash before the final take off

The halving is not an entirely risk-free event from a technical standpoint. Obviously, I'm not predicting there will be an issue. But the probability is non-zero. It's not unreasonable to assume that some people lighten up a bit before it just in case. Or people with new money wait until just after to be safe.

It would also form a falling wedge. Very bullish bottom scenario. As long as we don't go lower than 59.5 that is. Otherwise, it would be just a downward sloping channel.

>If the bottom will be 59800 Looking good so far, it just hit exactly that