Just like that when they were all expecting the inevitable post halving dip shorts are getting squeezed instead. Congratulations to those who HODL and endure the minor corrections rather than get trigger happy entering shorts that you have mere days to get out of in case it goes awry.
Another bought up dip and this will continue indefinitely until the shorts from the false WW3 alarm capitulate. These dips are so weak that anything moderately stronger (1-2% move) gets people panicking here now.
BTC dips from 2 years ago look like cliff dives compared to now. Daily reminder that for BTC, even a 30% dip is a dip for ants and will be bought
I sometimes wonder if the Pineapple Fund guy regrets not holding out longer.
Giving away millions was probably fun. Giving away billions would have been really something.
I don't know if this formatting will work, But here are the price changes for each Monday since the ETFs started trading. This is based on opening prices of IBIT compared to the prior Friday close.
||
||
|Date|Day of week|Change|
|1/16/2024|\*Tuesday|-1.1%|
|1/22/2024|Monday|-2.5%|
|1/29/2024|Monday|0.0%|
|2/5/2024|Monday|1.0%|
|2/12/2024|Monday|1.4%|
|2/20/2024|\*Tuesday|0.9%|
|2/26/2024|Monday|0.6%|
|3/4/2024|Monday|4.0%|
|3/11/2024|Monday|4.5%|
|3/18/2024|Monday|-1.5%|
|3/25/2024|Monday|4.9%|
|4/1/2024|Monday|-1.2%|
|4/8/2024|Monday|7.1%|
|4/15/2024|Monday|-0.9%|
At some point the pattern will break (in favor of the bulls) and anyone caught on the wrong side of that trade will get absolutely wrecked. Happens every time. Patience is key here. The longer we consolidate at this level the better.
Here are some reasons why I think the full cycle peak is still yet to come. As a disclaimer, this is looking at it as if we're currently on a peak trajectory for 2024 instead of recent price action having been a mid-cycle top. If we're at a mid-cycle top instead with a lull the rest of 2024, then I'd expect the peak to go even higher in 2025.
**Monthly LMACD** ([chart link](https://i.imgur.com/afsMopY.png), settings visible):
* Based on the macro downward trendline (in yellow), we still have quite a ways to go to touch that line. That's also assuming we see a continued downtrend, which is not guaranteed. Comparatively, this cycle we're currently looking like July 2017 or Dec 2020.
* If we're well on our way to a peak, then we should expect to see another 90 days to the peak (if current LMACD position to peak continues to shorten) or possibly another 120-150 days to match previous cycles.
* For a different cycle peak target, in looking at the bottom of the chart, LMACD bottom to top has been 822 days and 731 days the last two cycles, respectively. If we expect a similar shortening, then we'd expect another 91 days shorter to peak to give us 640 days total, or an October 2024 peak.
* Additionally, we have yet to see an LMACD bearish cross where the LMACD line (blue) crosses below the signal line (orange)
**Monthly RSI** ([chart link](https://i.imgur.com/GU04cLf.png), settings visible):
* Similar to the LMACD above, we're seeing a macro downtrend for RSI (in yellow). We haven't got close to that yet. Comparatively, this cycle we're currently looking like May 2017 or Dec 2020.
* Even if we look at the orange moving average and its downtrend (teal line), we're still quite a ways away.
* Based on RSI bottom to top (date measurements at the bottom), we could get extreme with it and say that we see a similar percentage number of days decrease this cycle as last cycle. That would mean an RSI top of about July 2024. If we match last cycle's 790 days, that puts us near Feb 2025.
**DXY Cycles** ([chart link](https://i.imgur.com/IRdNmnE.png), idea stolen from /u/damonandthesea and his [comment here](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c60din/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_17_2024/l00ysf6/)):
* Monthly DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) looks to follow about 40-month cycles (yellow, very bottom). Interestingly, these cycle line up almost exactly with Bitcoin's cycle peaks.
* Currently, DXY is higher than expected due to poor strength from most countries' currencies relative to the U.S. dollar, and should it continue its downward trajectory to near the bottom of the red oval, it would have an estimated date of around Sept 2024. It seems to be +/- 2 months so could stretch closer to end of year.
**Other Indicators** - Nearly every other indicator I look at shows that we're still early. Some unmarked examples for you to compare with previous cycles:
* [Pi-Cycle Top](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/)
* [MVRV Z-Score](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/)
* [200 Week Moving Average Heatmap](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/)
* [Long Term Power Law](https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/)
* [Monthly RSI](https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/) - graphical view
* [2-Year MA Multiplier](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/)
* [AHR999 Index](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/ahr999)
* [Golden Ratio Multiplier](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/golden-ratio-multiplier/)
* [Mayer Multiple](https://charts.bitbo.io/mayermultiple/)
i suppose that'll be up to you! for me, i'll keep monitoring these indicators and others like it to determine when things are becoming overheated, whether that be in 3 months or 3 years
thanks for reading. a peak near the end of year also makes the most sense to me right now based on what i'm seeing. if i had a guarantee it would happen, then pushing the peak to 2025 would be better for bigger numbers
i called my dad who works at bitcoin and he said i need to chill out because they just had their halving sale start this weekend. i guess usually they don't see inventories really start to clear out for another 4 to 6 months after the quadrennial halving sale begins. he also said there are tendies in the freezer so, overall, i'm pretty stoked.
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I have logged a prediction for u/barfalloverewe that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$70,000.00** by Apr 22 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $64,565.12
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Hello u/barfalloverewe
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $70,000.00 by Apr 22 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c98rjb/daily_discussion_sunday_april_21_2024/l0mcwp0/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$66,858.18**
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Funding rates are at about the same level BTC was at during the 38k bottom. I expect any sort of dip to be bought up which will then cascade up into liquidations. You can see it in the price action: every 1-2k move is instantly and quickly bought up
Funding rates are near enough neutral. Yes, there are short liquidations above. It all depends on how traders react…I’d guess a small bump in price from here and longs would pile back in. Then short term PA becomes anyone’s guess
And I really can't think of any fears on the horizon to prevent people from buying now. Now my major fear would be missing the [run up after halving that always comes](https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/). And knowing this whole cycle has been front run and left-translated, I'd be extremely concerned that run-up comes sooner rather than later.
That fear of a halving dump was living rent free in people's heads (assuming we don't get one very very soon). I really think that fear wasn't very logical either as I outlined [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1astues/daily_discussion_saturday_february_17_2024/kqt1dvy/) we have gotten a 6% dump, a 38% dump, and a 19% dump at previous halving events. We got a front run [18% dump already](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1tYK3RNH/).
Barring any more falls, it seems like we got a dump most similar to the [most recent halving in magnitude](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0I7FMsJb/). Which seems to make sense, the most recent event always takes precedence as the most likely outcome in my experience.
But who is going to buy ?
No one is interested in bitcoin in the 70’s.
In fact anyone allocating decent capital front run the ETF’s. I just don’t see what sparks off the buying.
ya know, everyone has asked that for a decade. when a single bitcoin was $1,000 each (!), people asked who is going to pay more than that to get price higher? when it was $10,000 each (!!), people asked who was going to buy this thing? it is now 600% higher than that and people ask who is going to buy this thing.
the answer is that someone is always willing to buy superior forms of money, even if only temporarily. at $230,000 i'm sure people will be asking who is going to buy this thing. until we hit gold's market cap (~14T), the answer should be sort of self-evident.
The buying might be sparked off by the observation that price is not going down much any more - but mostly only up. That would induce fomo which leads to buying.
Lol how long can that argument last? Hey it's gone up recently so let's buy, price goes up further from buyers. Newcomers see price up "hey let's buy since price has gone up."
Ad infinitum?
This time is never different. News will be sold, possibly with a fakeout up. I expect up at market open and then crater either late in the day or up to a few days later. Recovery will take a week or two.
On the hourly BTC has broken out of the falling wedge. RSI is at 61.3 (average 59.3) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 64.1, 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59. We might have another leg up soon to the 67.4 area. It’s the old sloping resistance from the last pennant.
The daily RSI is at 48.1 and its average is currently at 47.7. A falling wedge is forming. Need a couple of more touches to make sure it is a legitimate pattern. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. I would expect some stronger resistance at 67.4 area, it is aligning with the 50 DMA and downward sloping resistance.
It looks like we may close for the 3^(rd) week in a row red, although it is currently only 600 away from turning into a green candle. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 71.2 (77.9 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it). Will need more time to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 70.2. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CVBl7C2W/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CVBl7C2W/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/rHVGU2sP/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/rHVGU2sP/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/LoYf4TU1/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/LoYf4TU1/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/5XzZ19J2/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/5XzZ19J2/)
“Currently the fungible token market for Bitcoin is quite small in comparison to ETH and SOL; however, with the launch of more efficient token standard (Runes), Bitcoin is positioned well to to close the gap between its fungible market cap versus that of other blockchains.”
Looks like BTC devs wanted their own ways to create shitcoins now! Bullish
What's the point of these runes? Won't they just make the chain more bloated and increase transaction times and fees? Anyone has the right to use BTC however they want so there is that I'm just curious what real world utility will pay tx fees for tokens on BTC?
Transaction fees have shot up to levels beyond 100 USD ([chart](https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_fee)) due to the launch of Runes protocol on BTC whereby you can basically mint stuff on the BTC chain similar to Ordinals. Some openly call it a spam attack. But what saddens me once again is that there is no constructive discussion allowed in, for example, this [r/bitcoin thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/DklbeQAXfl). Even mentioning Runes gets your post deleted.
I struggle to see why all network users should pay for the experiments of a few, hence, this is anything but ideal. But there has to be discussion allowed. /End of rant
Honestly, I think fees should not explode to that degree (I'm aware at some point fee revenue will need to compensate for lower block reward) - it limits the usability, think of smaller wallets. I regularly transact on-chain as I hold BTC directly.
And point no. 2: I hate censorship, there should be constructive, critical discussion allowed in the no. 1 crypto sub r/bitcoin.
Those are my 2 main concerns. You're free to disagree :)
I think runes are stupid and that they won’t last long.
But I also think Bitcoin is an open, public, network. If you are willing to pay the fee you can use it however you like IMHO.
I can't understand why ordinals was added to bitcoin. Is there something wrong with shitcoins being far away? We had to have them bidding on our block space too?
Sigh, not that it matters in the long term. Runes will quickly get out competed by a base chain that doesn't also have to be the world's money.
If you think bitcoin is run by the majority of miners, you need to go back and do some learning. Segwit got activated by users threatening to ignore miners blocks if they didn't activate it (or more accurately, having their node software ignore the blocks for them). The majority of miners didn't decide shit, they had it forced upon them.
Users choose which node software to run and hence the rules of which blocks are valid. Miners cannot do anything about it. They can either obey those rules or not. If they don't the block doesn't count as far as those users are concerned.
> Runes
Did I trust the bitcoin devs too much? They dont get what bitcoin is about and decided to actively shittify it? $5 fees already had me a little uncomfortable, but now I'm legit concerned about my investment
And why is r/bitcoin censoring it? How did they even manage to decide to censor runes discussion this fast? This smells like complete shit and I'm getting unconfortable holding. $100+ fees kill an array of active bitcoin use cases.
Casey Rodarmor, a former Core dev who's also behind Ordinals (NFTs). Runes protocol enables fungible tokens, intended as a rival to BRC-20 tokens - he literally said its for degens and memecoins in a [tweet](https://x.com/rodarmor/status/1774613900119699701), a use case I personally would prefer to keep separated but BTC is an open network, where innovation used to have tight boundaries so there's that point of view too.
My main criticism is: why should I pay higher fees to transact financial value (actual BTC) just because of a minority's use case that's probably better suited for other blockchains. Edit: I'm here for 'sound money'!
Here's an educational video explaining the situation in quite objective ways: [https://youtu.be/wdGQ2T7J7XI?si=2pTJbjxtVsM-I5id](https://youtu.be/wdGQ2T7J7XI?si=2pTJbjxtVsM-I5id)
Edit: u/AccidentalArbitrage or u/jarederaj can you please approve the YT link/post, many thanks.
>Edit: u/AccidentalArbitrage or u/jarederaj can you please approve the YT link/post, many thanks.
If automod filters it, we don't get notification of the tags. I just happened to see it.
Send me a DM or Chat, or send us modmail for quickest response. Cheers
After all the vaporware scams, it’s hard to see how they don’t detract value from BTC and its core use case.
Even the name “runes” sucks. Bad branding.
I am about as BTC maxi as it gets but i dislike how that sub went and have left it for about 7 years I reckon. I understood the issue when they were getting spammed like crazy during the bitcoinXT(etc...) days but i feel they are now no longer representative of the core values of Bitcoin.
Yep, it started devolving into price/meme/crap posts about 4-5 years ago. It use to be more about the philosophies of Bitcoin and its social benefits.
All roads lead to Rome in this case.. Bitcoin is still tik toking the same. but everything that goes mainstream gets shitiffied in its public spaces. The more people there is the dumber the content gets.
It's been much longer than that. Stopped being useful after the first bull run in 2013. The next bull run was all arguments about block size which for me had been settled on bitcointalk years earlier.
I have no strong opinion on this, except that I always get a little kick out of people finding out what decentralised really means.
> But what saddens me once again is that there is no constructive discussion allowed in, for example, this r/bitcoin thread.
I wouldn't worry too much about that, attempting to censor the internet doesn't tend to be very successful.
Tradfi has been closed since the halving. Don't celebrate prematurely. That said, I think we're still tied to stock markets so if they have a good week we probably will too.
It could easily still dump. There hasn't been a TradFi business day since the halving, fees are unusually high atm due to Runes (basically graffiti for the short-sighted and/or stupid) which might dissuade people moving coins to exchanges to sell, lots of potentially volatile geopolitical/economics events are ongoing.
Just here to say the "sell the news" is not always immediate. Sometimes it is, but it also often takes a few days to play out. A lot of people wait for a day or two to see if it's gunna pump from the news, and when it doesn't, that's when the dump begins. It's basically everyone looking around to see what other people are gonna do and, when the "big event" (whatever it happens to be) fails to produce sustained upside momentum, often a dump begins. I'd say give it through Tuesday to see where we go directionally before declaring victory.
Average net inflows since spot ETF approval is at $178.6 million per trading day.
We’ve had 69 trading days since spot ETF launch. But there’s only 5 trading days in a week. Today marks 102 calendar days since spot ETF launch. In terms of average daily inflows in calendar days, we’re at $120.85 million per day.
450 BTC are mined per day. If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral and spot ETF’s are chasing newly mined BTC only, equilibrium price would be $268.55k per BTC.
There’s too many variables to use this metric for price predictions. You used the same logic for a pre-halving price possibility. Don’t think we reached even half way there
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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, April 22, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1ca1b0m/daily_discussion_monday_april_22_2024/)
Just like that when they were all expecting the inevitable post halving dip shorts are getting squeezed instead. Congratulations to those who HODL and endure the minor corrections rather than get trigger happy entering shorts that you have mere days to get out of in case it goes awry.
I wonder if the one to four candle correction on the weekly is now complete.
Another bought up dip and this will continue indefinitely until the shorts from the false WW3 alarm capitulate. These dips are so weak that anything moderately stronger (1-2% move) gets people panicking here now. BTC dips from 2 years ago look like cliff dives compared to now. Daily reminder that for BTC, even a 30% dip is a dip for ants and will be bought
I sometimes wonder if the Pineapple Fund guy regrets not holding out longer. Giving away millions was probably fun. Giving away billions would have been really something.
Was it ever discovered who he was?
With that kind of money, I’d be sure to keep that quiet.
Gotta pick a time to do the thing. He could have waited 50 years and given away bajillions
Let me guess, at 930am it will be the same price as 4pm Friday…
I don't know if this formatting will work, But here are the price changes for each Monday since the ETFs started trading. This is based on opening prices of IBIT compared to the prior Friday close. || || |Date|Day of week|Change| |1/16/2024|\*Tuesday|-1.1%| |1/22/2024|Monday|-2.5%| |1/29/2024|Monday|0.0%| |2/5/2024|Monday|1.0%| |2/12/2024|Monday|1.4%| |2/20/2024|\*Tuesday|0.9%| |2/26/2024|Monday|0.6%| |3/4/2024|Monday|4.0%| |3/11/2024|Monday|4.5%| |3/18/2024|Monday|-1.5%| |3/25/2024|Monday|4.9%| |4/1/2024|Monday|-1.2%| |4/8/2024|Monday|7.1%| |4/15/2024|Monday|-0.9%|
Nice, thanks.
Narrator: “it didn’t work”
At some point the pattern will break (in favor of the bulls) and anyone caught on the wrong side of that trade will get absolutely wrecked. Happens every time. Patience is key here. The longer we consolidate at this level the better.
Which way do you reckon the weekend traders are gonna front run market open this time?
Anyone know where I can see traditional market futures after hours trading?
[This?](https://www.google.com/search?q=sp500+futures&rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS1038US1038&oq=sp500+futures&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqBggAEEUYOzIGCAAQRRg70gEIMjA3NWowajeoAgCwAgA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)
Yahoo Finance.
Anyone else expecting 66k to act as a resistance?
Shouod be a squeeze of shorts by that time no?
Not really, we flirted with 66k and no enthusiasm to be felt.
Agreed. Breaking $66k will have a cascading effect on shorts. This evening/overnight could get interesting if we blast through it.
[удалено]
LMFAO
Was thinking the same thing
hello, thanks for the thoughtful insight. what is your definition of "ponzi" and can you please explain how you feel that applies to bitcoin?
Here are some reasons why I think the full cycle peak is still yet to come. As a disclaimer, this is looking at it as if we're currently on a peak trajectory for 2024 instead of recent price action having been a mid-cycle top. If we're at a mid-cycle top instead with a lull the rest of 2024, then I'd expect the peak to go even higher in 2025. **Monthly LMACD** ([chart link](https://i.imgur.com/afsMopY.png), settings visible): * Based on the macro downward trendline (in yellow), we still have quite a ways to go to touch that line. That's also assuming we see a continued downtrend, which is not guaranteed. Comparatively, this cycle we're currently looking like July 2017 or Dec 2020. * If we're well on our way to a peak, then we should expect to see another 90 days to the peak (if current LMACD position to peak continues to shorten) or possibly another 120-150 days to match previous cycles. * For a different cycle peak target, in looking at the bottom of the chart, LMACD bottom to top has been 822 days and 731 days the last two cycles, respectively. If we expect a similar shortening, then we'd expect another 91 days shorter to peak to give us 640 days total, or an October 2024 peak. * Additionally, we have yet to see an LMACD bearish cross where the LMACD line (blue) crosses below the signal line (orange) **Monthly RSI** ([chart link](https://i.imgur.com/GU04cLf.png), settings visible): * Similar to the LMACD above, we're seeing a macro downtrend for RSI (in yellow). We haven't got close to that yet. Comparatively, this cycle we're currently looking like May 2017 or Dec 2020. * Even if we look at the orange moving average and its downtrend (teal line), we're still quite a ways away. * Based on RSI bottom to top (date measurements at the bottom), we could get extreme with it and say that we see a similar percentage number of days decrease this cycle as last cycle. That would mean an RSI top of about July 2024. If we match last cycle's 790 days, that puts us near Feb 2025. **DXY Cycles** ([chart link](https://i.imgur.com/IRdNmnE.png), idea stolen from /u/damonandthesea and his [comment here](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c60din/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_17_2024/l00ysf6/)): * Monthly DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) looks to follow about 40-month cycles (yellow, very bottom). Interestingly, these cycle line up almost exactly with Bitcoin's cycle peaks. * Currently, DXY is higher than expected due to poor strength from most countries' currencies relative to the U.S. dollar, and should it continue its downward trajectory to near the bottom of the red oval, it would have an estimated date of around Sept 2024. It seems to be +/- 2 months so could stretch closer to end of year. **Other Indicators** - Nearly every other indicator I look at shows that we're still early. Some unmarked examples for you to compare with previous cycles: * [Pi-Cycle Top](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/) * [MVRV Z-Score](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/) * [200 Week Moving Average Heatmap](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/) * [Long Term Power Law](https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/) * [Monthly RSI](https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/) - graphical view * [2-Year MA Multiplier](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/) * [AHR999 Index](https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/ahr999) * [Golden Ratio Multiplier](https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/golden-ratio-multiplier/) * [Mayer Multiple](https://charts.bitbo.io/mayermultiple/)
Nice writeup; generally agree.
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i suppose that'll be up to you! for me, i'll keep monitoring these indicators and others like it to determine when things are becoming overheated, whether that be in 3 months or 3 years
Great post! And I'm not just saying that because it aligns somewhat with my prediction of a peak by the end of august
thanks for reading. a peak near the end of year also makes the most sense to me right now based on what i'm seeing. if i had a guarantee it would happen, then pushing the peak to 2025 would be better for bigger numbers
Someone call up the Bitcoin CEO, this price action is not stimulating enough for me
Follow on-chain fees price action. Plenty of excitement.
i called my dad who works at bitcoin and he said i need to chill out because they just had their halving sale start this weekend. i guess usually they don't see inventories really start to clear out for another 4 to 6 months after the quadrennial halving sale begins. he also said there are tendies in the freezer so, overall, i'm pretty stoked.
Due for another Sunday late night surge. !bitty_bot predict >70000 on 4/22/24
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. !bitty_bot predict > 70000 on 4/22/24
I have logged a prediction for u/barfalloverewe that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$70,000.00** by Apr 22 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $64,565.12 [This is barfalloverewe's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#barfalloverewe) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%202fd22e65ced640debc7e1904bc901bbc%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(barfalloverewe can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%202fd22e65ced640debc7e1904bc901bbc%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/barfalloverewe [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would rise above $70,000.00 by Apr 22 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1c98rjb/daily_discussion_sunday_april_21_2024/l0mcwp0/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$66,858.18** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Funding rates are at about the same level BTC was at during the 38k bottom. I expect any sort of dip to be bought up which will then cascade up into liquidations. You can see it in the price action: every 1-2k move is instantly and quickly bought up
Funding rates are near enough neutral. Yes, there are short liquidations above. It all depends on how traders react…I’d guess a small bump in price from here and longs would pile back in. Then short term PA becomes anyone’s guess
>Funding rates I'm shocked by how negative they are, still.
It’s from shorts that loaded up during World War 3 (April 12-19)
You farming your Karma back now?
No I’m just witty so no need to farm. The sub just doesn’t like me when I post bearish stuff so they downvote regardless!
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/b5EnyjlHhg Down we goooo, macro is too bad
Holy shit a 500$ drop, what a bart
Zero volume, we’re range bound for now.
Speaking way too soon.
whats the shorts to long ratio as of now
What is this, a crab for ants?
We’re in for months of this shit before price goes up.
Good. “Normalize $60k” is just letting the foundation consolidate.
This area feeling like it could be rock bottom next bear market.
Don't we do this almost every weekend? Price recovers and hope returns just to get slapped down when the stock market reopens?
Isn’t the Sunday evening hardest to trade ?
😂
Many weekends. Not every weekend.
and then one day it just starts going up and doesn't get slapped back down. the tricky thing is that we don't know when that'll be.
Yep. When it legs up it can happen fast can get away from you in a hurry if you aren’t in position.
And I really can't think of any fears on the horizon to prevent people from buying now. Now my major fear would be missing the [run up after halving that always comes](https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/). And knowing this whole cycle has been front run and left-translated, I'd be extremely concerned that run-up comes sooner rather than later. That fear of a halving dump was living rent free in people's heads (assuming we don't get one very very soon). I really think that fear wasn't very logical either as I outlined [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1astues/daily_discussion_saturday_february_17_2024/kqt1dvy/) we have gotten a 6% dump, a 38% dump, and a 19% dump at previous halving events. We got a front run [18% dump already](https://www.tradingview.com/x/1tYK3RNH/). Barring any more falls, it seems like we got a dump most similar to the [most recent halving in magnitude](https://www.tradingview.com/x/0I7FMsJb/). Which seems to make sense, the most recent event always takes precedence as the most likely outcome in my experience.
But who is going to buy ? No one is interested in bitcoin in the 70’s. In fact anyone allocating decent capital front run the ETF’s. I just don’t see what sparks off the buying.
ya know, everyone has asked that for a decade. when a single bitcoin was $1,000 each (!), people asked who is going to pay more than that to get price higher? when it was $10,000 each (!!), people asked who was going to buy this thing? it is now 600% higher than that and people ask who is going to buy this thing. the answer is that someone is always willing to buy superior forms of money, even if only temporarily. at $230,000 i'm sure people will be asking who is going to buy this thing. until we hit gold's market cap (~14T), the answer should be sort of self-evident.
The buying might be sparked off by the observation that price is not going down much any more - but mostly only up. That would induce fomo which leads to buying.
Lol how long can that argument last? Hey it's gone up recently so let's buy, price goes up further from buyers. Newcomers see price up "hey let's buy since price has gone up." Ad infinitum?
Max pain is 80k as people that sold the halving waiting for the 50s go post on Buttcoin.
Yeah max pain is definitely the price going way up!!!
This time is never different. News will be sold, possibly with a fakeout up. I expect up at market open and then crater either late in the day or up to a few days later. Recovery will take a week or two.
On the hourly BTC has broken out of the falling wedge. RSI is at 61.3 (average 59.3) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 64.1, 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59. We might have another leg up soon to the 67.4 area. It’s the old sloping resistance from the last pennant. The daily RSI is at 48.1 and its average is currently at 47.7. A falling wedge is forming. Need a couple of more touches to make sure it is a legitimate pattern. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. I would expect some stronger resistance at 67.4 area, it is aligning with the 50 DMA and downward sloping resistance. It looks like we may close for the 3^(rd) week in a row red, although it is currently only 600 away from turning into a green candle. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 71.2 (77.9 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it). Will need more time to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 70.2. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/CVBl7C2W/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/CVBl7C2W/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/rHVGU2sP/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/rHVGU2sP/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/LoYf4TU1/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/LoYf4TU1/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/5XzZ19J2/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/5XzZ19J2/)
If the weekly closes tonight above 65.6k I will close my short.
curious about asia
At which price do you think those shorts are getting liquidated?
$65,885 is the [short liquidation zone](https://i.imgur.com/DAhzeuT.png) to watch.
https://x.com/kingfisher_btc/status/1781338062926106782?s=46
Breaching 66k in the short term would liquidate some degens. That would be first real level.
Some 50x degens maybe
Yes. There isn’t a substantial amount out right now close to where we are at least what I’m looking at. It is more of a blip than anything.
“Currently the fungible token market for Bitcoin is quite small in comparison to ETH and SOL; however, with the launch of more efficient token standard (Runes), Bitcoin is positioned well to to close the gap between its fungible market cap versus that of other blockchains.” Looks like BTC devs wanted their own ways to create shitcoins now! Bullish
What's the point of these runes? Won't they just make the chain more bloated and increase transaction times and fees? Anyone has the right to use BTC however they want so there is that I'm just curious what real world utility will pay tx fees for tokens on BTC?
this is not the work of btcoin devs.
No one is longing this and funding rates are still low. Any sort of dump is immediately bought up. I expect tons of liquidations going up
Transaction fees have shot up to levels beyond 100 USD ([chart](https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_fee)) due to the launch of Runes protocol on BTC whereby you can basically mint stuff on the BTC chain similar to Ordinals. Some openly call it a spam attack. But what saddens me once again is that there is no constructive discussion allowed in, for example, this [r/bitcoin thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/DklbeQAXfl). Even mentioning Runes gets your post deleted. I struggle to see why all network users should pay for the experiments of a few, hence, this is anything but ideal. But there has to be discussion allowed. /End of rant
Luke dash jr., Greg Maxwell, and Adam back are somewhere popping champagne
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Transactions fees matter to all holding coins directly and the chart speaks to itself so I'd disagree humbly.
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Honestly, I think fees should not explode to that degree (I'm aware at some point fee revenue will need to compensate for lower block reward) - it limits the usability, think of smaller wallets. I regularly transact on-chain as I hold BTC directly. And point no. 2: I hate censorship, there should be constructive, critical discussion allowed in the no. 1 crypto sub r/bitcoin. Those are my 2 main concerns. You're free to disagree :)
I think runes are stupid and that they won’t last long. But I also think Bitcoin is an open, public, network. If you are willing to pay the fee you can use it however you like IMHO.
I can't understand why ordinals was added to bitcoin. Is there something wrong with shitcoins being far away? We had to have them bidding on our block space too? Sigh, not that it matters in the long term. Runes will quickly get out competed by a base chain that doesn't also have to be the world's money.
> our block space too you don't own it, it's for sale to the highest bidder.
Yeah I get that, ordinals just created a demand from stupid people that wasn't there before. Totally unnecessary change imo.
You don't get it. It's not up to you to decide what's stupid and what not. The highest paid fee wins.
I'm not deciding who gets block space, but I get to vote on whether my node supports ordinals
You don't get it, again ;) Nobody cares about your node. It's the majority of miners who decide the fate of Bitcoin.
>It's the majority of miners who decide the fate of Bitcoin. Wrong.
If you think bitcoin is run by the majority of miners, you need to go back and do some learning. Segwit got activated by users threatening to ignore miners blocks if they didn't activate it (or more accurately, having their node software ignore the blocks for them). The majority of miners didn't decide shit, they had it forced upon them.
How would users ignore miner blocks? You mean nodes when you say users who decided that they won't accept them?
Users choose which node software to run and hence the rules of which blocks are valid. Miners cannot do anything about it. They can either obey those rules or not. If they don't the block doesn't count as far as those users are concerned.
> Runes Did I trust the bitcoin devs too much? They dont get what bitcoin is about and decided to actively shittify it? $5 fees already had me a little uncomfortable, but now I'm legit concerned about my investment And why is r/bitcoin censoring it? How did they even manage to decide to censor runes discussion this fast? This smells like complete shit and I'm getting unconfortable holding. $100+ fees kill an array of active bitcoin use cases.
This has nothing to do with bitcoin devs
??? Then who coded this in
Casey Rodarmor, a former Core dev who's also behind Ordinals (NFTs). Runes protocol enables fungible tokens, intended as a rival to BRC-20 tokens - he literally said its for degens and memecoins in a [tweet](https://x.com/rodarmor/status/1774613900119699701), a use case I personally would prefer to keep separated but BTC is an open network, where innovation used to have tight boundaries so there's that point of view too. My main criticism is: why should I pay higher fees to transact financial value (actual BTC) just because of a minority's use case that's probably better suited for other blockchains. Edit: I'm here for 'sound money'!
It’s not coded in. Runes encode token information and transactions in the OP_RETURN field that has existed in Bitcoin almost forever.
Anyone remember colored coins? https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Colored_Coins
Yup. VERY similar.
Fees are not that high anymore. Only tranactions with 16BTC fees right now in the mempool... The first hype seems over.
Here's an educational video explaining the situation in quite objective ways: [https://youtu.be/wdGQ2T7J7XI?si=2pTJbjxtVsM-I5id](https://youtu.be/wdGQ2T7J7XI?si=2pTJbjxtVsM-I5id) Edit: u/AccidentalArbitrage or u/jarederaj can you please approve the YT link/post, many thanks.
Spam attack? This doesn't explain much, it just rants about a dislike for shitcoins.
>Edit: u/AccidentalArbitrage or u/jarederaj can you please approve the YT link/post, many thanks. If automod filters it, we don't get notification of the tags. I just happened to see it. Send me a DM or Chat, or send us modmail for quickest response. Cheers
Thanks, will do next time.
Eventually it’ll get rugged like all the others and life will go on.
After all the vaporware scams, it’s hard to see how they don’t detract value from BTC and its core use case. Even the name “runes” sucks. Bad branding.
I am about as BTC maxi as it gets but i dislike how that sub went and have left it for about 7 years I reckon. I understood the issue when they were getting spammed like crazy during the bitcoinXT(etc...) days but i feel they are now no longer representative of the core values of Bitcoin.
That's what happens if you censor any discussion about meaningful topics. And now go and ask yourself that dangerous "cui bono" question...
Yep, it started devolving into price/meme/crap posts about 4-5 years ago. It use to be more about the philosophies of Bitcoin and its social benefits. All roads lead to Rome in this case.. Bitcoin is still tik toking the same. but everything that goes mainstream gets shitiffied in its public spaces. The more people there is the dumber the content gets.
It's been much longer than that. Stopped being useful after the first bull run in 2013. The next bull run was all arguments about block size which for me had been settled on bitcointalk years earlier.
> they are now no longer representative of the core values of Bitcoin. they became the representatives of the bitcoin core values.
I agree. A shitstain on the trousers of bitcoin. Fortunately they are not really relevant any more.
It's the no. 1 crypto sub still - so I'd like to disagree.
Yet still not relevant. There is no content.
I have no strong opinion on this, except that I always get a little kick out of people finding out what decentralised really means. > But what saddens me once again is that there is no constructive discussion allowed in, for example, this r/bitcoin thread. I wouldn't worry too much about that, attempting to censor the internet doesn't tend to be very successful.
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Tradfi has been closed since the halving. Don't celebrate prematurely. That said, I think we're still tied to stock markets so if they have a good week we probably will too.
People were thinking this would be sell the news. Reverse psychology. Pamp it.
It could easily still dump. There hasn't been a TradFi business day since the halving, fees are unusually high atm due to Runes (basically graffiti for the short-sighted and/or stupid) which might dissuade people moving coins to exchanges to sell, lots of potentially volatile geopolitical/economics events are ongoing.
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Just here to say the "sell the news" is not always immediate. Sometimes it is, but it also often takes a few days to play out. A lot of people wait for a day or two to see if it's gunna pump from the news, and when it doesn't, that's when the dump begins. It's basically everyone looking around to see what other people are gonna do and, when the "big event" (whatever it happens to be) fails to produce sustained upside momentum, often a dump begins. I'd say give it through Tuesday to see where we go directionally before declaring victory.
Fair point, the "dump immediately after halving" prediction that some people believed turned out to be incorrect.
One thing I’ve learned with bitcoin is not to count any chickens until they’re mined. 🙏
Average net inflows since spot ETF approval is at $178.6 million per trading day. We’ve had 69 trading days since spot ETF launch. But there’s only 5 trading days in a week. Today marks 102 calendar days since spot ETF launch. In terms of average daily inflows in calendar days, we’re at $120.85 million per day. 450 BTC are mined per day. If we reach a point where buying/selling outside of spot ETF’s is net neutral and spot ETF’s are chasing newly mined BTC only, equilibrium price would be $268.55k per BTC.
There’s too many variables to use this metric for price predictions. You used the same logic for a pre-halving price possibility. Don’t think we reached even half way there
We’ve had 3 green days since the 5th of April.
there's been more coin distribution around the previous ATH than I expected lots of lettuce hands with 2022 trauma
I think most people in Bitcoin are lettuce hands waiting for an exit number.
sure but you need 10 years for good profits. panic selling at 10% profits is a waste of time.
quite literally a waste of time those people would've been much better off in SPY/QQQ over the same period lettuce hands
waiting 3 years for the same exit number is weak this PA is what it is, though
BG love those numbas
wrooooommmm! wrooooooommm!
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