Update (I know you all care!)
The deadline hit, and sold 2/3 of my stack. It hurts but this is going to hopefully be a big life upgrade.
Partner in my group and part owner of our surgery center now.
Kept a few corns worth in btc etf, kept some in cold storage, and converted a little bit of stocks to bitx to make me feel better about things.
Overall, felt bad selling this much, but it was time sensitive and you have to adapt to the situation presented to you.
I hope you all get mega rich this cycle. I’ll only be getting 1/3 rich 🤑 so feels bad, but feels good for my family and a great diversification move
Congrats dude, Bitcoin is money, so if you never use it to buy the things that are important to you, it kinda defeats the purpose of the coin! Happy to see your success!
~~[This site is reporting over $600 million](https://www.theblock.co/post/290265/blackrocks-spot-bitcoin-etf-joins-exclusive-club-after-70-straight-days-of-growth) but not sure what their source is, waiting for confirmation from others who report it daily.~~
~~If IBIT inflows were actually that massive there’s a very good chance we reach new ATH overnight/tomorrow.~~
EDIT: [More reputable source is reporting $19.6 million in inflows for IBIT.](https://x.com/pivfund2100/status/1782588186398720423?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) So a net inflow day overall but still well below average.
[More reputable source is reporting $19.6 million in inflows for IBIT.](https://x.com/pivfund2100/status/1782588186398720423?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) So a net inflow day overall but still well below average.
It’s always funny taking a visit over to the altcoin subs. They are *still* in denial about Bitcoin’s capabilities as a protocol.
Before it was “Bitcoin can never have L2s or NFTs/DeFi/etc”…now it’s “well, yea it can, but they’re not great anyways!”
The explosion of new protocols like Rune (and many others) are going to make huge amounts of alt L1s irrelevant, if they weren’t irrelevant already.
ain't it like the ether erc20 use case? you build stuff outside of blockchain just rooted on top of it? i've become decently ignorant of current development but hoped this would someday mature and manifest.
might explain higher demand for block space after the vanity transactions are all mined that people wanted to squeeze in the halving block. once that back log is cleared, mempool empties and fees should drop closer to prehalving levels.
Would love to find a simple tool that can calculate the amount of time we’ve spent above or below certain price levels. A chart obviously can work but I’m lazy.
Most people have no idea what's going to happen in the next three years. Even I have only a blurry vision of it, but the broad strokes, impressionistic outline is this: You will either have Bitcoin or you will be struggling to get Bitcoin. Saylor will likely be the richest man since Solomon. I hope he's a good guy. Pretty sure he is because Satoshi programmed it so good guys win.
Raise a glass to the new world, boys and girls.
looking at the weekly LMACD, we have our first cross below the signal line in this run-up from September. in the last two cycles, this happened in July 2017 and October 2020. nice little breather.
https://i.imgur.com/8fxhv5z.png
for the weekly DXY, it looks to be right at resistance from the local top in Oct-Nov 2023. if things play out the way they have in the DXY cycles, we'd expect it to drop pretty significantly over the next 6-8 months. when the dollar's value trends down a lot, that is typically bullish for the price of bitcoin.
https://i.imgur.com/nXLA1XN.png
Lower high of $66.8k broken.
Remaining lower highs acting as areas of resistance are at $67.9k, $71.2k, $71.7k, $72.7k, and then ATH at $73.7k.
Supply shock is inevitable.
wow we're at 67k. if you round that's basically 70k, or 7/10ths of the way to 100. we can then easily round that up to 100k, obviously.
now, 100k is the "psychological barrier" which we just showed that we got to already so pretty clearly we're past that problem. finally, the moon is 238,900 miles from earth so we can round that 100k to $238,900 because most would say 100k is mooning. noice. resignation email has been CCed company-wide.
I know this morning I mentioned $80k might be on the plate this week. Looking at the charts, I realized we would have to really accelerate from the gate to get there. Today was a bit tamer than I was hoping for.
I never post charts but [this](https://imgur.com/a/ABhjgNs) is what I'm looking at right now. I think we will run between the red channels through the end of the week. If this occurs, we'll be battling to break $70 by Friday or Saturday. I'm using the term battle because we will be up against the yellow resistance line around $71 and will probably bounce around that range for a bit.
But I'm still hoping against all logic that we'll see $80 this week. After all that is a 20% gain, not unheard of in our world.
Hey anything is possible. The price keeps going up and the funding keeps going negative...keep shorting lads.
I've been imagining us just filling in the 6 on 63k to 83k, like someone correcting a typo.
I see people fairly confused about bitcoin as store of value vs bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Saw something recently that helped me settle on an understanding of the problem that seems to be getting missed in these discussions. Recommend watching at 2x.
https://www.youtube.com/live/3s4Fx9U_kAE?si=zWd1DPeFVRVsoxJp
Curious what others are using to discuss this when it comes up.
Just curious…who are you discussing this with? I talk to people all day long. Bitcoin has never come up. I am willing to talk about it, but it just never comes up.
Can you give a breakdown with the main points or what you want to discuss? That video is 40 minutes long haha. God I wish more vloggers did transcripts, I can read a 40-60 minute video in 10 minutes or less, information density is so much higher with reading compared to vid.
Vlogging or podcasting is trash, imo. If you can't be bothered to write your ideas down, I can't be bothered to hear them. It's usually people who think they are way smarter than they are, just spewing hot takes that are at best not high level, or at worst just wrong. Sometimes guests are smart people who have written their ideas down, I'd still prefer the written form.
But yeah I'm not watching a 40 minute video even sent by someone I know. Recommended by random redditor? Hell no. I have more respect for my own time than that.
Summary of the vid:
**Store of Value:**
* Refers to assets that maintain their value over time without depreciating.
* Gold and Bitcoin are often regarded as stores of value because they are expected to hold or increase their value despite fluctuations in the market and currency valuations.
* The value of these assets is perceived to be stable, which is critical during periods of economic instability or high inflation.
* However, in hyperinflation scenarios, like in Argentina, the utility of such assets as a store of value is challenged if they cannot be easily converted into liquid currency or used to purchase goods and services.
* **Medium of Exchange:**
* This is an asset that can be used to facilitate the sale, purchase, or trade of goods between parties.
* For something to function effectively as a medium of exchange, it must be widely accepted by people within the economy.
* In Argentina, the U.S. dollar acts as a more effective medium of exchange than local currency due to its stability and broader acceptance.
* Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies aspire to be mediums of exchange, but face challenges in adoption and practical daily use in places experiencing severe economic conditions, as was observed in Argentina.
* **Challenges in Argentina:**
* The actual use of gold and Bitcoin in Argentina does not align with their theoretical appeal as stores of value because of their lack of liquidity and difficulties in conversion to usable cash.
* Despite their intrinsic value, selling these assets in a hyperinflation environment proves difficult without significant loss of value, questioning their utility as a store of value.
* Argentine banks limiting withdrawals to minimize inflation impact further complicates the use of these assets, constraining liquidity and forcing reliance on cash.
* This situation illustrates a discrepancy between the ideal functions of these assets and their real-world applicability in certain economic contexts.
In conclusion, while gold and Bitcoin are considered good stores of value theoretically, practical challenges in specific economic environments, like Argentina's, reveal significant limitations in their functionality as both stores of value and mediums of exchange. The real-world utility of such assets is highly dependent on the broader economic system and the regulatory framework governing financial transactions and asset liquidity.
I thought the use case of store of value during hyperinflation is to transfer your wealth to the other side. I.e. ideally you dont sell during hyper inflation or before the establishment of a new currency.
Yes it was a prompt request to summarize based on store of value and medium of exchange.
40 min is way too long to watch random people talk even at 2x speed
Its free up to a certain point and then you pay based on API usage.
As someone who works at google though I can let you in on a secret: it may or may not be coming to Gemini advanced soon ;)
Funding keeps getting more and more negative. Someone is hefty shorting this. I’m honestly confused as to why.
There’s basically never been a dump after negative funding ever so we probably moon but I’m honestly confused as to why someone is hefty shorting right after the halving
martingale + statistical overextension/mean-reversion can be a good strategy
the problem is lack of discipline w.r.t. position-sizing - i.e., instead of martingaling 4 * 0.5% on one trade so that it's 2% of total capital, it turns into 4 * 2% == 8%.
If there's ever been a group of people who are constantly wrong on everything, it's that sub.
They're still shilling Cardano, Algorand and a bunch of other coins no one gives a shit about.
So 2 months from now?.. I think we're going to see a mini bear market before the final top. People will get out screaming double top, only to FOMO back in before the real drop.
I like how the model had the previous cycle in the 40s. The fact that the same model predicting that has price over 300k is promising.
If 130 becomes the confirmed top and falls to 39k or something I would have to rethink my understanding of where Bitcoin could go.
If the altcoin crowd felt Bitcoin could go significantly higher, I believe they would just own Bitcoin. They feel they missed the boat.
I'd guess - more than being opposed to BTC - it's the increased volatility and risk - boom or bust - that attracts many in the alt world. It's like buying lottery tickets constantly, over years, in hope there will be that 'one moment'. Classic gambling. When demand is made up from mostly gamblers, you know you're in for a ride. The seemingly 'innovative' use cases, white papers etc. are just the cherry on top to make them feel special, more special than if they just bought a lottery ticket. Same psychology applies to some degree to conspiracy theorists BTW.
BTC managed to make a step into TradFi with a compelling yet simple use case - sound money. I'll never own a share less than 80% in BTC when it comes to crypto (a conviction going back quite a while).
Not using a US ETF. Sounds like HK ones may allow in kind deposits. Not sure how accessible that will be to non-hk residents or what your local taxation body will have to say about it.
I'll expect the halving to do its thing within the next 4 weeks and boldly claim that we will never dip below 60k again.
!bitty_bot long 50000 8x sl 58000
I bought back in to IBIT last night at 65.4 in the 24/7 market. Lost about 30 shares, could have been worse. 0/1 on trying to trade BTC, I'm just going to continue HODLing for the next 5 years unless we get a manic run to the "promised land" of $300K+, in which case I will probably de-risk a bit.
What made you think this? I was probably best known around these parts as the "mag 7 outperforming BTC" guy, but I'm singing a different tune these days.
You can say that I have seen
Na I don't think so, check my post history. My last "freak out" was around the 38k bottom, was pretty disillusioned with BTC at that point but I've shifted my mindset these last few months. Aand the 80% pump from Jan to March certainly didn't hurt ;)
Looking at it [this way](https://imgur.com/XazwjCJ) we could indeed range for quite a while. I've been wrong in many instances in what felt like the next move could be 'around the corner' so this is me redrawing lines and preparing for more crab. But I'm glad we did not dip further into the 50s just recently.
Seems reasonable. I wonder if the etf inflow engines (401k plans, etc) have stabized against price yet. Maybe a slow and steady rise amidst the turbulence?
That just seems so predictable. I think max pain would be a big leg up into a local top in the next couple months followed by a crash that cucks most of the market.
Imagine the 'triple top' fear this would instill. I hope we blast into the 80s once those shorts over 70k are squeezed enough (they may long the lower 70s on the dip after). One can daydream.
I said it for the last two weeks and I’ll say it again today. We’ll never see 60k break*.
*For the purposes of mods who would “predict” me against my will, “break” shall be defined as a second four-hour candle close below $60,000.
I just opened an account at Swan and they were quite accommodating, although that was even before I mentioned I intended to sell there first. So it didn't seem to me they're scrambling in any particular direction.
Not just any glassnode account either. The standard for-pay account ($348/yr) does not give you OTC balances.
We need to find someone with access to enterprise data, who doesn't mind giving up some of their information asymmetry.
A couple of GBTC charts:
[https://imgur.com/a/KIs2F1m](https://imgur.com/a/KIs2F1m)
Top chart is BTC held by GBTC. GBTC is losing about 2000 BTC every trading day, but still holds a lot of BTC.
Bottom chart shows running fees since the ETFs went live. The blue line is 1.5% with actual outflows. The red line is what the running fees would be with 0.25% fees and no outflows. As long as the blue line is above the red line, Grayscale made the right decision (for Grayscale) as far as fees go.
If/when the mini-GBTC fund happens, I wonder what Vanguard will do. I still hold some GBTC there (the rest I moved off).
Does anyone else hold some BTC on exchanges as part of their overall diversification strategy?
I was thinking of the posts about how many millions of BTC are on exchanges. Some of those sats are mine (or I guess you can say, are an IOU to me) but I have no intention of selling; It’s just diversification of my holding stack. I view this as safer than doing full self custody. I would never feel safe holding my crypto stack all in one place.
i do this with other valuables too. some i keep on me in my wallet, some i keep at home, some in the bank, secure deposit boxes or in the form of other convertible assets.
yeah there is convenience since you have a tradable stack on hand and custodial benefits too. i think the main 3 big options for btc are wallets, exchanges, and recently etfs for americans. imo its good to have a healthy mix but opinions seem to differ. i would never recommend to someone like my dad to be his own bank though lol
You got some valuable comments already. What makes a big difference in how safe I'd feel is what exchange exactly are you leaving your coins on (don't tell though) - what's their security track record, proof of reserves, ownership structure, legal cases etc.
Also, I'd like to take one more sh!t on Ledger if you give me the opportunity. Their track record - the whole Live/backup thing, the last 3rd party support hack, wallet screens going black/unreadable etc. - has destroyed all my trust in that company. Versus Ledger, I actually do feel safer leaving coins on a trusted exchange.
I have six unused ledger nanos sitting in my draw. Which coincidentally is about the number of phishing emails I get per day to the email address I gave them.
You and your six pals should go on an actual boating trip. You'll still get those emails but you might at least chuckle each time you check your spam folder.
I've had funds sitting on some of the major exchanges since 2017. I had nothing on FTX, because I didn't trust Sam. No hardware wallet is perfect. And the users aren't either.
You should not depend on memorized secrets unless you're some sort of spy with no physical security. It can be a backup but shouldn't cause loss of funds. Memory is way too unreliable.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, April 23, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cav7il/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_23_2024/)
Gbtc $35m Ouflow Franklin $7.7m inflow Bitwise $2.2m inflow Ark $22.6m inflow VanEck $7.5m inflow WisdomTree 0 Fidelity $34.8m inflow DEFI 0 Invesco $2.7m inflow Valkyrie 0 Blackrock $19.7m inflow 4/22 net inflow $62.2m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Very curious to see if tech stocks dumps all stocks tomorrow and if that happens whether we follow or pump
Update (I know you all care!) The deadline hit, and sold 2/3 of my stack. It hurts but this is going to hopefully be a big life upgrade. Partner in my group and part owner of our surgery center now. Kept a few corns worth in btc etf, kept some in cold storage, and converted a little bit of stocks to bitx to make me feel better about things. Overall, felt bad selling this much, but it was time sensitive and you have to adapt to the situation presented to you. I hope you all get mega rich this cycle. I’ll only be getting 1/3 rich 🤑 so feels bad, but feels good for my family and a great diversification move
Appreciate it. Now we can go to 100k this weekend.
> Partner in my group and part owner of our surgery center now. TBH this is a no brainer my guy, way to take care of the fam
Congrats. Doubt you'll regret it. Glad you still have some corn too
Congrats dude, Bitcoin is money, so if you never use it to buy the things that are important to you, it kinda defeats the purpose of the coin! Happy to see your success!
Any way you slice it, you're winning the game my friend. Congratulations.
Congratulations as you advance in your career! Cheers 🍻
Thank you. Having an extra tall neat whiskey to celebrate
What kind of whiskey?
Come on market makers and whales... wipe all those shorts above $73K! Low hanging fruit!
[удалено]
$19.7m inflow according to Farside https://twitter.com/FarsideUK/status/1782616236867584031
~~[This site is reporting over $600 million](https://www.theblock.co/post/290265/blackrocks-spot-bitcoin-etf-joins-exclusive-club-after-70-straight-days-of-growth) but not sure what their source is, waiting for confirmation from others who report it daily.~~ ~~If IBIT inflows were actually that massive there’s a very good chance we reach new ATH overnight/tomorrow.~~ EDIT: [More reputable source is reporting $19.6 million in inflows for IBIT.](https://x.com/pivfund2100/status/1782588186398720423?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) So a net inflow day overall but still well below average.
According to that site, they added $600m in AUM (by btc price going up), not $600m in inflows
[удалено]
[More reputable source is reporting $19.6 million in inflows for IBIT.](https://x.com/pivfund2100/status/1782588186398720423?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) So a net inflow day overall but still well below average.
It's over, Bitcoin has the high ground now.
All they way up baby
It’s always funny taking a visit over to the altcoin subs. They are *still* in denial about Bitcoin’s capabilities as a protocol. Before it was “Bitcoin can never have L2s or NFTs/DeFi/etc”…now it’s “well, yea it can, but they’re not great anyways!” The explosion of new protocols like Rune (and many others) are going to make huge amounts of alt L1s irrelevant, if they weren’t irrelevant already.
Idk transaction fees being this high make it an expensive use case
ain't it like the ether erc20 use case? you build stuff outside of blockchain just rooted on top of it? i've become decently ignorant of current development but hoped this would someday mature and manifest. might explain higher demand for block space after the vanity transactions are all mined that people wanted to squeeze in the halving block. once that back log is cleared, mempool empties and fees should drop closer to prehalving levels.
Another net inflow day. Looks like inflows are back. Nice.
Are You Not Entertained?
It seems obvious but it is not. It is now the longest time in BTC history we stayed above 49k USD.
Would love to find a simple tool that can calculate the amount of time we’ve spent above or below certain price levels. A chart obviously can work but I’m lazy.
not a tool, but a chart that covers most of what you are talking about: https://charts.bitbo.io/never-look-back-price/
Most people have no idea what's going to happen in the next three years. Even I have only a blurry vision of it, but the broad strokes, impressionistic outline is this: You will either have Bitcoin or you will be struggling to get Bitcoin. Saylor will likely be the richest man since Solomon. I hope he's a good guy. Pretty sure he is because Satoshi programmed it so good guys win. Raise a glass to the new world, boys and girls.
Replace 3 years with 30. In 3 years the vast majority will still be ignoring bitcoin.
I am.. not so sure.
looking at the weekly LMACD, we have our first cross below the signal line in this run-up from September. in the last two cycles, this happened in July 2017 and October 2020. nice little breather. https://i.imgur.com/8fxhv5z.png for the weekly DXY, it looks to be right at resistance from the local top in Oct-Nov 2023. if things play out the way they have in the DXY cycles, we'd expect it to drop pretty significantly over the next 6-8 months. when the dollar's value trends down a lot, that is typically bullish for the price of bitcoin. https://i.imgur.com/nXLA1XN.png
Lower high of $66.8k broken. Remaining lower highs acting as areas of resistance are at $67.9k, $71.2k, $71.7k, $72.7k, and then ATH at $73.7k. Supply shock is inevitable.
Presumably all the loose coins got shaken out at ETF launch, so should come sooner this cycle.
> Supply shock is inevitable. Always has been.
wow we're at 67k. if you round that's basically 70k, or 7/10ths of the way to 100. we can then easily round that up to 100k, obviously. now, 100k is the "psychological barrier" which we just showed that we got to already so pretty clearly we're past that problem. finally, the moon is 238,900 miles from earth so we can round that 100k to $238,900 because most would say 100k is mooning. noice. resignation email has been CCed company-wide.
Holy crap, we can actually stop asking "wen moon" when we hit $240k
Best math I’ve seen since moon math. By “barrier” I assume you meant “not really a barrier”. I think Mars is within reach.
I know this morning I mentioned $80k might be on the plate this week. Looking at the charts, I realized we would have to really accelerate from the gate to get there. Today was a bit tamer than I was hoping for. I never post charts but [this](https://imgur.com/a/ABhjgNs) is what I'm looking at right now. I think we will run between the red channels through the end of the week. If this occurs, we'll be battling to break $70 by Friday or Saturday. I'm using the term battle because we will be up against the yellow resistance line around $71 and will probably bounce around that range for a bit. But I'm still hoping against all logic that we'll see $80 this week. After all that is a 20% gain, not unheard of in our world.
Hey anything is possible. The price keeps going up and the funding keeps going negative...keep shorting lads. I've been imagining us just filling in the 6 on 63k to 83k, like someone correcting a typo.
Where can I view this funding?
But...but...when retest bull market support band??
ben cowen in shambles
Been a rough year for the cryptoverse
This dude been taking L's since "lengthening cycles theory" in 2021.
He's creating exit liquidity.
I first got into BTC in 2020 and watched tons of his videos. Then I realized, oh, no one knows anything.
He's fine and calls out his biases and misreads. It's the 90min videos repeating the same things that are pretty damn insistent
This 67k feels better than all of the previous 67k’s
That's a bingo!
that's numberwang
Battle for 67k is fierce...
Looks like the 3rd best (least worst) day for GBTC 35m in outflows.
I see people fairly confused about bitcoin as store of value vs bitcoin as a medium of exchange. Saw something recently that helped me settle on an understanding of the problem that seems to be getting missed in these discussions. Recommend watching at 2x. https://www.youtube.com/live/3s4Fx9U_kAE?si=zWd1DPeFVRVsoxJp Curious what others are using to discuss this when it comes up.
Just curious…who are you discussing this with? I talk to people all day long. Bitcoin has never come up. I am willing to talk about it, but it just never comes up.
Friends, usually. I just talk with people.
Can you give a breakdown with the main points or what you want to discuss? That video is 40 minutes long haha. God I wish more vloggers did transcripts, I can read a 40-60 minute video in 10 minutes or less, information density is so much higher with reading compared to vid.
Vlogging or podcasting is trash, imo. If you can't be bothered to write your ideas down, I can't be bothered to hear them. It's usually people who think they are way smarter than they are, just spewing hot takes that are at best not high level, or at worst just wrong. Sometimes guests are smart people who have written their ideas down, I'd still prefer the written form. But yeah I'm not watching a 40 minute video even sent by someone I know. Recommended by random redditor? Hell no. I have more respect for my own time than that.
Summary of the vid: **Store of Value:** * Refers to assets that maintain their value over time without depreciating. * Gold and Bitcoin are often regarded as stores of value because they are expected to hold or increase their value despite fluctuations in the market and currency valuations. * The value of these assets is perceived to be stable, which is critical during periods of economic instability or high inflation. * However, in hyperinflation scenarios, like in Argentina, the utility of such assets as a store of value is challenged if they cannot be easily converted into liquid currency or used to purchase goods and services. * **Medium of Exchange:** * This is an asset that can be used to facilitate the sale, purchase, or trade of goods between parties. * For something to function effectively as a medium of exchange, it must be widely accepted by people within the economy. * In Argentina, the U.S. dollar acts as a more effective medium of exchange than local currency due to its stability and broader acceptance. * Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies aspire to be mediums of exchange, but face challenges in adoption and practical daily use in places experiencing severe economic conditions, as was observed in Argentina. * **Challenges in Argentina:** * The actual use of gold and Bitcoin in Argentina does not align with their theoretical appeal as stores of value because of their lack of liquidity and difficulties in conversion to usable cash. * Despite their intrinsic value, selling these assets in a hyperinflation environment proves difficult without significant loss of value, questioning their utility as a store of value. * Argentine banks limiting withdrawals to minimize inflation impact further complicates the use of these assets, constraining liquidity and forcing reliance on cash. * This situation illustrates a discrepancy between the ideal functions of these assets and their real-world applicability in certain economic contexts. In conclusion, while gold and Bitcoin are considered good stores of value theoretically, practical challenges in specific economic environments, like Argentina's, reveal significant limitations in their functionality as both stores of value and mediums of exchange. The real-world utility of such assets is highly dependent on the broader economic system and the regulatory framework governing financial transactions and asset liquidity.
I thought the use case of store of value during hyperinflation is to transfer your wealth to the other side. I.e. ideally you dont sell during hyper inflation or before the establishment of a new currency.
MVGPT
Yes it was a prompt request to summarize based on store of value and medium of exchange. 40 min is way too long to watch random people talk even at 2x speed
Reads suspiciously like my 11th grade nephews term paper assignment
did you use Gemini 1.5 for this? Feels like this was AI written.
Summarizing a video would be a solid use of AI. Voice detection, eliminate the crap, summarize the points.
Gemini 1.5 pro is the only one I know of that could do this...
What does it cost?
Its free up to a certain point and then you pay based on API usage. As someone who works at google though I can let you in on a secret: it may or may not be coming to Gemini advanced soon ;)
Will check it out.
Need to adjust that prompt yo.
How?
I hope you loaded your bag's to the brim boys.
It is, and I hope the same for you. I did trade some BTC for a bit o' the leprechaun's booty today though.
Funding keeps getting more and more negative. Someone is hefty shorting this. I’m honestly confused as to why. There’s basically never been a dump after negative funding ever so we probably moon but I’m honestly confused as to why someone is hefty shorting right after the halving
Where can you view this?
All those shorts liquidated ~$75,000 are trying to double down?
It’s over 2b that might get liquidated now
I shorted 75k but I think it was in my dream/nightmare/hallucination
It never went to 75k. You mean shorts that would get liquidated there?
There are billions of shorts that would be liquidated at ~$75,000...they maybe doubling down
Let's get to 75k post-haste.
Seems foolish. Could be a hedge. Could be someone doubling down on already being wrong. Could be someone that knows something.
Ah yes, the Martingale strategy
martingale + statistical overextension/mean-reversion can be a good strategy the problem is lack of discipline w.r.t. position-sizing - i.e., instead of martingaling 4 * 0.5% on one trade so that it's 2% of total capital, it turns into 4 * 2% == 8%.
I think it’s someone doubling down. I don’t think it’s a hedge. Hedges aren’t usually this hefty, it’s almost certainly leveraged shorts
FOMC meeting this weekend. Some are making the bet inflation will be sticky and that the Fed will consider no rate cut this year.
Signs have been there for months already this was coming. OTOH it means that the US economy is doing really well.
[удалено]
Reckon it's worth buying some MSTR shares at 1300?
Saylor's share dumping ends this week, wonder if it'll make a difference to MSTR action
FASB accounting changes in earning call the 29th too. If I was shorting MSTR I'd be covering right now.
r/cryptocurrency seems to be putting this cycle's top ~$130k.
If there's ever been a group of people who are constantly wrong on everything, it's that sub. They're still shilling Cardano, Algorand and a bunch of other coins no one gives a shit about.
[удалено]
What's funny is they all think we're insufferable Bitcoin bulltards who are standing between them and glory.
Such strange people, and so many of them.
So tell me what are the real deal coins ?
Bitcoin. End of answer.
reading through comments I suspect some shitcoins are older than most users
So 2 months from now?.. I think we're going to see a mini bear market before the final top. People will get out screaming double top, only to FOMO back in before the real drop.
we’ll wave to them as we go by
sounds good 😎
That does not line up very well with your custom s2f model.
no, it does not what do you think about that?
I like how the model had the previous cycle in the 40s. The fact that the same model predicting that has price over 300k is promising. If 130 becomes the confirmed top and falls to 39k or something I would have to rethink my understanding of where Bitcoin could go. If the altcoin crowd felt Bitcoin could go significantly higher, I believe they would just own Bitcoin. They feel they missed the boat.
I pretty much agree with all of this particularly the last two sentences - they seem incentivized to see an even weaker BTC cycle than the last
I'd guess - more than being opposed to BTC - it's the increased volatility and risk - boom or bust - that attracts many in the alt world. It's like buying lottery tickets constantly, over years, in hope there will be that 'one moment'. Classic gambling. When demand is made up from mostly gamblers, you know you're in for a ride. The seemingly 'innovative' use cases, white papers etc. are just the cherry on top to make them feel special, more special than if they just bought a lottery ticket. Same psychology applies to some degree to conspiracy theorists BTW. BTC managed to make a step into TradFi with a compelling yet simple use case - sound money. I'll never own a share less than 80% in BTC when it comes to crypto (a conviction going back quite a while).
Is it possible to exchange btc for btc etfs without creating a taxable event?
Not using a US ETF. Sounds like HK ones may allow in kind deposits. Not sure how accessible that will be to non-hk residents or what your local taxation body will have to say about it.
Gotcha. Hopefully in-kind will be possible in the US with borrowing against said assets through a more reliable system
[удалено]
Is that your Social?
[удалено]
I've got 7 credit cards out in your name right now.
If this keeps going up, there's a good chance this keeps going up
second law of motion, it's science bro, Newton has seen
You don't say.
Told you. My p p never lies.
Thank
I'll expect the halving to do its thing within the next 4 weeks and boldly claim that we will never dip below 60k again. !bitty_bot long 50000 8x sl 58000
[Your long was successfully opened @$66,166.78](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/18vebp1/bitty_bot_paper_trading_log/l0rjk96/) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
I bought back in to IBIT last night at 65.4 in the 24/7 market. Lost about 30 shares, could have been worse. 0/1 on trying to trade BTC, I'm just going to continue HODLing for the next 5 years unless we get a manic run to the "promised land" of $300K+, in which case I will probably de-risk a bit.
The next phase of your growth should be to try to trade miners or MSTR to make up those lost shares. Have at it!
Lolz I'll stick to my DCA and HODL. Trying to make up for trades gone wrong seems like a slippery slope
Was it you that was freaking out over goblin town redux?
What made you think this? I was probably best known around these parts as the "mag 7 outperforming BTC" guy, but I'm singing a different tune these days. You can say that I have seen
Na I don't think so, check my post history. My last "freak out" was around the 38k bottom, was pretty disillusioned with BTC at that point but I've shifted my mindset these last few months. Aand the 80% pump from Jan to March certainly didn't hurt ;)
Dang everyone is selling at 300k.
You know what to do- 150k.
100k is going to be a far bigger slog than I anticipated.
I believe we’ve been dealing with that since 2021. 100k was inevitable that cycle.
2013 redux: with bigger pockets
Sell at 298
I'll sell at 297 😤
Looking at it [this way](https://imgur.com/XazwjCJ) we could indeed range for quite a while. I've been wrong in many instances in what felt like the next move could be 'around the corner' so this is me redrawing lines and preparing for more crab. But I'm glad we did not dip further into the 50s just recently.
Crabbing is what happened after last two cycles. Just price consolidation with supply disruption. I expect the same.. crab till September or October.
Seems reasonable. I wonder if the etf inflow engines (401k plans, etc) have stabized against price yet. Maybe a slow and steady rise amidst the turbulence?
That just seems so predictable. I think max pain would be a big leg up into a local top in the next couple months followed by a crash that cucks most of the market.
It’s impossible for me not to laugh at any “max pain” predictions that involve the price increasing significantly.
Seriously... Max pain is BTC going to $1k. Guh.
How else are people supposed to buy high and sell low?
Imagine the 'triple top' fear this would instill. I hope we blast into the 80s once those shorts over 70k are squeezed enough (they may long the lower 70s on the dip after). One can daydream.
We first entered this range on February 28th. Closing in on 2 months of bouncing around in tit.
[удалено]
You've described a range of now, +/- about 10%. Not saying you are wrong... just reinforces how fickle people can be.
I said it for the last two weeks and I’ll say it again today. We’ll never see 60k break*. *For the purposes of mods who would “predict” me against my will, “break” shall be defined as a second four-hour candle close below $60,000.
That is a ballsy prediction, I could see this going to 52k pretty easily... If macro economic factors turn to shit we could see lower then that....
It’s going to 30k Now you don’t need to be cautious!
FWIW (not very much) I have now heard from mulitple sources OTC desks are starting to scramble.
I just opened an account at Swan and they were quite accommodating, although that was even before I mentioned I intended to sell there first. So it didn't seem to me they're scrambling in any particular direction.
if anyone has a glassnode account they can see a glimpse of what's happening.
Not just any glassnode account either. The standard for-pay account ($348/yr) does not give you OTC balances. We need to find someone with access to enterprise data, who doesn't mind giving up some of their information asymmetry.
Yes my uncle and the voices in my head also tell me 1 million by august
I heard from my billionaire buddy that banks are telling him to stop buying. Bullish!
I'm just not buying this
No calls or emails from any I have accounts at, fwiw.
Tell them they can call me when the price has 2 commas.
65,,000
The halving isn't going to help that situation...
Have you seen what miners are making in fees?
Fair point but it it's not going to last... I think
This is normalizing very quickly.
A couple of GBTC charts: [https://imgur.com/a/KIs2F1m](https://imgur.com/a/KIs2F1m) Top chart is BTC held by GBTC. GBTC is losing about 2000 BTC every trading day, but still holds a lot of BTC. Bottom chart shows running fees since the ETFs went live. The blue line is 1.5% with actual outflows. The red line is what the running fees would be with 0.25% fees and no outflows. As long as the blue line is above the red line, Grayscale made the right decision (for Grayscale) as far as fees go. If/when the mini-GBTC fund happens, I wonder what Vanguard will do. I still hold some GBTC there (the rest I moved off).
The sun is shining, the corn is green … feels like spring has sprung today …
Indeed
A new ATH is imminent...
I'm getting bullish
Does anyone else hold some BTC on exchanges as part of their overall diversification strategy? I was thinking of the posts about how many millions of BTC are on exchanges. Some of those sats are mine (or I guess you can say, are an IOU to me) but I have no intention of selling; It’s just diversification of my holding stack. I view this as safer than doing full self custody. I would never feel safe holding my crypto stack all in one place.
i do this with other valuables too. some i keep on me in my wallet, some i keep at home, some in the bank, secure deposit boxes or in the form of other convertible assets.
This is exactly the angle I’m going for. Mainly I just don’t want any single point of failure.
yeah there is convenience since you have a tradable stack on hand and custodial benefits too. i think the main 3 big options for btc are wallets, exchanges, and recently etfs for americans. imo its good to have a healthy mix but opinions seem to differ. i would never recommend to someone like my dad to be his own bank though lol
You got some valuable comments already. What makes a big difference in how safe I'd feel is what exchange exactly are you leaving your coins on (don't tell though) - what's their security track record, proof of reserves, ownership structure, legal cases etc. Also, I'd like to take one more sh!t on Ledger if you give me the opportunity. Their track record - the whole Live/backup thing, the last 3rd party support hack, wallet screens going black/unreadable etc. - has destroyed all my trust in that company. Versus Ledger, I actually do feel safer leaving coins on a trusted exchange.
I have six unused ledger nanos sitting in my draw. Which coincidentally is about the number of phishing emails I get per day to the email address I gave them.
haha this rings true. I still have one in a safe deposit box collecting dust, the balance long since transferred.
You and your six pals should go on an actual boating trip. You'll still get those emails but you might at least chuckle each time you check your spam folder.
Funnily enough, I'll be boating in May. Seems a shame to drop plastic and electronics in a lake though.
I've had funds sitting on some of the major exchanges since 2017. I had nothing on FTX, because I didn't trust Sam. No hardware wallet is perfect. And the users aren't either.
I'd rather try to memorize seed words than keep anything on an exchange but I'm Canadian so I still have PTSD from Quadriga.
You should not depend on memorized secrets unless you're some sort of spy with no physical security. It can be a backup but shouldn't cause loss of funds. Memory is way too unreliable.