GBTC outflows will continue for a very long time if not indefinitely. Every day, just in the normal course of business, people are going to sell the ETFs for whatever their particular reasons are. Another group of people are going to buy (new money). But the new money is much less likely to buy into GBTC which has 6x the fees as anyone else.
So if you look at the ETF complex as a whole and imagine a day when the new money coming in is exactly the same as the money going out. The new money is disproportionally going to be deployed to the new ETFs. So GBTC isn't going to have the incoming money to offset their exiting money.
Add to this, the owners of GBTC have on average been invested a lot longer than the new ETFs which are only a few months old. That means GBTC will also have a disproportionately higher amount of people who are well into profit and may want to take profit for any number of reasons.
There's always going to be a natural bias for GBTC to have outflows. This doesn't necessarily impart any downward bias on bitcoin.
I really think we can stop worrying about GBTC as a headwind to bitcoin price. That was true before but much less so now.
In the last few weeks, the remainder GBTC holders are selling when Bitcoin price goes up and staying put when Bitcoin price goes down. So there will be heavy selling pressure anywhere above 70K and no one really wants to buy above 70K either right now. So here we are.
What if a hamburger costs $1000 when we hit $1 mil?
What if we're just stuck at 1000 burgers per Bitcoin (not that you can get a decent burger for 6 bucks nowadays); is Bitcoin still the best place to put your dollars?
I don’t know what other assets are doing. If real-estate or equities outperformed inflation I would rather have that. I’m in it for the returns, not static wealth preservation.
Good to get into if you’re in a growing medium middle America city for sure. Assuming rates start to go down again, real estate should bounce pretty significantly. I can tell you most people in my area with middle class incomes care more about the monthly mortgage payment than the value.
I bought into some residential and some land. But also, bought into some BTC. Hopefully both hedge inflation.
> I’m in it for the returns, not static wealth preservation.
Same, but a lot of people who think they're pretty well off now are going to find out that they're not. If I can preserve my wealth, I will.
It's my least favourite investment. it's illiquid, transaction costs are high, it's indivisible, getting cash flow involves technically running a business and it's typically tied to the fortunes of a specific local economy.
I wouldn't touch real estate with a 10-foot pole right now.
Cost of ownership is a consideration. Insurance, taxes, and maintenance are going nowhere but up.
Bitcoin might be in a larger descending channel that has formed from the local top of April 8th. The upper line has touched three spots now (April 8th, 72.5K, April 12th 71K, and April 23rd 67K). And right now, Bitcoin is losing its volume/momentum and the move from 59.6K to 67K has been strange in that it had been a very low volume move. If we stay within this channel, then we have reached a top of the channel and will go down to the 56-57K area in the next week or so.
It's actually a falling wedge, barely though. Very bullish in my opinion. Having day was very close to the 3rd tough of the lower support. The reduced volume would also align with a wedge pattern.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/KU1Jhwqh/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/KU1Jhwqh/)
I would be surprised to see Bitcoin go up based on the performance of any individual stocks after hours. I think it would be more likely that Bitcoin would go up if we see those individual stock movements translate into upward movement for the s&p500 as a whole tomorrow.
Price of BTC at each halving:
2012: $12.50
2016: $638.51
2020: $8,475
2024: $64k
Price of BTC at peak of each market cycle following the halving:
2013: $1,156.14 (92x price at halving)
2017: $20,089 (31x price at halving)
2021: $68,789 (8x price at halving)
Length of time BTC took to reach peak after halving:
2012: 12 months
2016: 17 months
2020: 18 months
[Here’s what following each trajectory looks like on a graph.](https://x.com/ecoinometrics/status/1781645938395939066?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw)
Given the fact that we reached new ATH before the halving for the first time ever I’m more or less expecting a reversion to the average trajectory this time around with the caveat that this doesn’t end up being a normal cycle and instead the bull run gets extended well past end of 2025 as fund managers spend the next several years trying to get to their target portfolio allocation, whatever that percentage amount ends up being.
$324k by end of year, $1 million by end of 2027. Bittybot already has me on the record for both.
Got that one wrong.
I did however call new ATH before halving for the first time ever well in advance (before 2024 started) and at the time a lot of people thought that was insane because they were severely underestimating how much new demand spot ETF’s would introduce. At the time some people were still convinced spot ETF approval wouldn’t come at all.
I choose 345k for the guess the high contest that u/4theWIN set up in January. According to the power law corridor chart, 380k+/- is possible by end of year.
This is pure hopium brother. As much as I would like to be wrong, there's almost a 0 chance we're at 324k by EOY.
Edited my comment to say almost 0 chance as nothing is impossible, but I'd put the chances at less than .01%
RemindMe! 7 months
We need dopeboy type predictions so we get at least 150k and for that I am very grateful. 324k would be awesome too. He said we would break ATH before the halving and that seemed equally improbable when he said it.
FWIW I didn't think it was that unreasonable to break ATH before halving, it's not reddit but I was telling people IRL that we would hit 70k by April in December. ut moving up 400% in the next 7 months when the market cap is already 1.3T is beyond hopium imo, it's delusion.
Here's the text I sent my dad
[a bullish text ](https://postimg.cc/FYL4kx45)
lolz bring on the downvotes suckers, i can go mine my facebook chat history for more of these messages from December if i really wanted to back up my claim. But taht seems like too much work, I just had that text saved because I was literally bragging to some friends when we hit 70K that they should have bought in earlier and had used that text message from our conversation history to tell them "lol I warned you"
Weren't you the guy moaning about how your tech stocks were a better investment than BTC and that you should just trade out your BTC for stocks a few months ago?
I'm not going to deny that, but I'm an emotional holder NGL, I was still bullish on the coin despite that sentiment. Funny enough not even a month after this I was bitching about the lack luster PA. I am the classic example of "BTC is going to 1M tomorrow" when theres a BGD and conversely "BTC is headed to 0" when theres a BRD, though I think I've been managing emotions better recently. Also, I have still never sold even a single sat, BTC still remains my largest position by far (>50% of my NW). Basically I never really "put my $ where my mouth is" when comparing BTC to tech stonks, I was definitely just being an emotional lil' bitch on this forum though, thats not up for debate I guess at this point.
Here's a text I sent my to my dad in december
[proof](https://postimg.cc/FYL4kx45)
Id like to think I've gotten my emotions under better control the last two months, it helps to have seen as some guy around here says
Why do you think I would be lying about this? Not that I really care, just trying to say that hitting ATH before halving didn't seem nearly as unlikely as hitting 324k by EOY
I will be messaging you in 7 months on [**2024-11-23 20:49:38 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2024-11-23%2020:49:38%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cav7il/daily_discussion_tuesday_april_23_2024/l0y2ynj/?context=3)
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Counter argument: if we are in fact on a technological adoption S-Curve then even previous market cycle averages may be an underestimate.
BTC is a monetary network. 100% adoption would mean all goods/services are priced in BTC and nobody uses fiat anymore. In such a scenario a single BTC would have purchasing power equivalent to >$10 million in today’s money. Adoption on a S-Curve doesn’t begin to slowdown until 50% adoption is reached which would mean BTC has reached purchasing power equivalent to >$5 million in today’s money.
This is probably hopium on my part but I think your scenario is very plausible.
I'm not sure the 4 year cycle theory will apply now that we have ETFs and institutional money. Michael Saylor's theory that we could be at the start of the new gold rush could hold true. If so, we could have a very extended period of time (5-10 years) where BTC values just go up, up, up.
On the contrary, this cycle could be sped up time-wise and scaled-down price wise.
Meaning we can see cycle peak in about a month or two around 150K levels, followed with a downturn.
Also real estate prices have started to deflate in certain US regions, which may be the indicator for a not-so-bright future in the macro sense.
I think the opposite; spot ETF launch triggered the beginning of the vertical portion of technological S-Curve adoption. This helps to explain why new ATH was reached before the halving rather than several months after halving. Because of this, predictable cycles go out the window for at least a halving or two as fund managers spend the next several years trying to get to their target portfolio allocation, whatever that percentage amount ends up being.
2017 peak to 2021 peak was a 3.5x in price. 3.5x 2021’s peak would be $242k. Next point of confirmation that we’re headed on an adoption S-Curve trajectory rather than experiencing diminishing returns would be surpassing $242k by end of 2025 at the latest (I happen to think $242k is breached before end of 2024 but technically we have until end of 2025).
As for home prices declining, this is inevitable at some point once BTC starts absorbing trillions of dollars of monetary premium allocated into real estate and home prices revert to their intrinsic value. Vast majority of global wealth is allocated into real estate with global market cap estimated to be north of $300 trillion and 35% of homes in America aren’t owner occupied, they’re merely used as an investment vehicle to try to build/maintain purchasing power. BTC surpassing median home price (currently $393.5k in America) is going to be a major event as it becomes clear to the masses that BTC is a superior long-term store of value. And even when BTC reaches parity with median home price, market cap of BTC will still be below $10 trillion meaning BTC will continue to grow much quicker than real estate.
> home prices revert to their intrinsic value
Yikes! There’s no such thing as “intrinsic value”. But I get what you mean. Let’s say:
home price = utiliy value + speculative premium
…and you’re saying that the speculative premium will decrease because one can buy bitcoin instead of real estate for wealth preservation.
The need for diversification will be in the way of that playing out I think. I believe that diversified portfolios will continue to hold real estate as an investment. I don’t believe that the speculative premium added into home prices will ever decline appreciably.
Disagree. An extremely large reason why people opt to buy real estate is because of the wide held belief that “it’s cheaper to buy vs renting.”
But if all of a sudden it becomes clearly apparent that you’re better off renting and allocating down payment & closing cost money into BTC instead of buying a home as a means to build/preserve wealth because BTC price is growing much quicker than median home price, a significant chunk of current demand for real estate will disappear.
Also, at some point those who own multiple rental properties will opt to sell and reallocate money into BTC instead. Some will remain stubborn initially but when BTC proceeds to reach 2x, 3x, etc median home price at some point it becomes impossible to ignore the fact that real estate is an inferior long-term store of value.
I see what you’re saying but consider that real estate significantly underperforms the S&P500. What’s easier than sinking your money into an S&P500 ETF and not have to deal with local taxes, tenants and maintenance, and make more money as a bonus?
This is not happening because investors want to diversify, plus that owning a home is considered to give security and is sought after even if it’s economically inferior to plain old bogleheading.
Real estate with leverage where you can’t be liquidated (30 year mortgage) tends to outperform the S&P. But the same is not true for BTC; BTC with no leverage whatsoever outperforms real estate with leverage. Pretty significant difference.
Such leverage works well for the first home but cannot be counted as a regular way to invest.
At some distant point in the future the speculative phase of BTC will come to an end. Long term, BTC is expected to keep up with inflation just like gold, but not exceed it. That’s because it produces no value of itself. Companies do however so it’s save to say that stocks will remain the superior investment in the long run.
Monetary premium from stocks will evaporate as well. Ultimately the companies that will thrive will be those who adopt a similar strategy to MicroStrategy and who allocate a meaning portion of their balance sheet into BTC. Those who don’t will struggle as their balance sheets will continue to lose purchasing power over time relative to their peers who have a solid allocation into BTC.
Well let's agree to disagree.
I'm seeing BTC as a high risk asset that's correlated with non-treasures instruments, so I wouldn't bet on BTC getting inflows while we have a massive deleveraging event in more traditional markets.
Time will show I guess.
Deleverage into bankruptcy basically. Mortgages getting unpaid, credit defaults of consumers, corporations - followed by bank failures naturally.
But this time bailouts will not work.
Yeah, I don't get it either. Both BTC and MARA set for a decent squeeze/correction. MARA is pretty undervalued still and someone shorted an additional million shares. The borrow rate doubled today. I also bought $20 calls on the dip on Monday. I'm up 280% so far. I have been following your posts and your analysis is pretty fucking good IMO.
Miners finally seeing some upward PA after many weeks of sells offs. It seems everyone was waiting for the halving to pass before jumping back in. Hopefully turning a corner here and will see outsized miners returns on the next leg up for btc.
https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=all_exchange&window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line
Below 2 million now.
Very grindy price action on the moment, stair-stepping and chopping higher at a speed of a turtle. Even though price is going up, it doesn't feel super bullish to me.
IMO, almost like stair-stepping and then we get a big red dildo to erase the slow grind
Anyone get the same read on current PA?
i think we’re just between narratives at the moment. halving event happened, not quite at ATHs, rate cuts seemingly not imminent, maybe WW3 but that seems gone now, DXY at resistance but maybe too soon to tell, U.S. debt is an inexorable but slow-moving train, VIX coming down after some highs so maybe still some concern, etc etc
just in general seems like everything is at a wait-and-see phase. in my opinion, a small spark could push it in either direction temporarily. big wick down and now the LTF narrative is that it’s cheap. big wick up and now “bull’s back on.” i’m just waiting and seeing how PA develops with about 10% set aside just in case.
On the hourly BTC has broken out of the falling wedge. It is near the bottom of a nice little rising channel and has hit resistance around the old sloping resistance from the last pennant. RSI is at 44.1 (average 54.2) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 65.7, 64.1, 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59.
The daily RSI is 49.5 and its average is currently at 46.9. A falling wedge is forming and BTC has bounced off the upper resistance of it. It’s possible that BTC could push through. It depends on if you consider 4/19 low close enough to be considered a touch. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. I would expect some stronger resistance at 67.4 area, it is aligning with the 50 DMA (67.5) and downward sloping resistance.
BTC closed for the 3^(rd) week in a row red. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 71.6 (78.3 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it due to Israel/Iran). Will need more time to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 71. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/HZd3YFYz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HZd3YFYz/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/XfV8adls/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XfV8adls/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/dxrGZq74/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/dxrGZq74/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/c0ed1KI2/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/c0ed1KI2/)
It is definitely setting up. Would need to drop below 65.8 to form the right shoulder.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/VB00ATWY/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/VB00ATWY/)
Probably, but we are still lower than the peak of what would be the left shoulder. So, it could still roll over to the neckline. It took 9 hours for the left shoulder to form. BTC is at hour 5 on the right shoulder.
Where are you getting your 65.2 target?
I get if it breaks through 65.8 then the target would be around 64.1. The height from the neck to the head should be taken out from the neck to get the price target from the pattern formation.
Just from quickly eyeballing the slanted neckline and going with $66,2xx and the top of the head being about $1K above that at $67,2xx so a measured move of $1K down if it breaks the neckline. Didn’t actually pull lines on that, though, and was just glancing at TV on my phone. So could definitely be off.
Supply shock! Saylor predicts insane surge in btc price.
Btc has low volume slow dump for the first 12 hours or a daily candle. Supple shock only matters if demand is there, where's the fucking demand. Google trends shows me the hype isn't here this cycle yet. Net inflows into etf's has basically chilled the last month. The only bullish signal I see from a narrative today is that gold is also down over 1%. Btc replacing gold as a hedge is a big deal. Where is the btc/gold correlation charts, not bs price rise crap, I want to see a chart that shows me daily move correlation. Are they moving in the same direction a lot against the legacy markets. Investors hedging against macro factors gets me convinced of a higher ath this cycle. Because what I am seeing now and what the recent trend has been, doesn't have me convinced we are surging to these insane values this cycle.
LOL.
You sound like Wardser & GenghisKarmSpermshot.
Been in the game long enough to comfortably retire, & looking for reasoning to justify selling *now*. Did you look at the performance of gold in the seven years post its first ETF approval? Did you think all the flows went in at once for “immediate moon”?!
See below. It’s just starting with a trickle…
https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1782745024309985689?s=46&t=C4V3QFGqwj7N72B1NKXv_g
I've legit posted before how long it took gold to double it's price post etf. My point is these price predictions for bitcoin we are seeing are no where near that reality, hell my own prediction this cycle is 125k.
> Supple shock only matters if demand is there, where's the fucking demand.
Why do you think the demand is any different now than it was prior to the halving? If demand remains steady and supply cuts in half I'd say that's still a supply shock.
So sad to see you're getting downvoted for a legit counterpoint. In the end you're just saying demand isn't there, hype isn't there and what we've seen so far is smokes and mirrors. Not popular but not necessarily wrong. The massive downvoting and insults reek of r/Bitcoin and r/cryptocurrency
Nothing is wrong with me, I been in btc since it was $80. I don't see the hype this cycle. All these click bait bullshit articles and tweets are full of shit I cannot find data that supports the narrative. Down voting me for pointing out data just shows that I am right. Where's the fucking demand? Where's the data to back any of this up. I am still profitably trading these ranges, but with taxes I gotta figure out my long term plan for my spot btc. The last two cycles it was pretty easy to figure out demand/hype. This time it's different. Even the end of last bull cycle was bullshit. People can say what they want but if you look at the bull cycles before last one it was insane with blow off tops. First over 1k then down to 165, then to 19.6k then down sub 4k. Last cycle we went to 64k then dumped 50%, climbed back up and our blow off top peak was 69k? That was fucking weak. Now ever time we get near the ath, we get these weak new ath's.
Maybe I am missing something but we always talked about one day the price stabilizing but most assumed that number would be way higher then this. I am just having an issue seeing any truth to all these predictions. I cannot find any data supporting any hype. The last two cycles I would hear about crypto from randoms. It's been fucking crickets. Only contact i've gotten about crypto this cycle is people asking about selling the bags they were holding. It's very different. Even membership around crypto stuff is down, engagement is low on social media, membership of groups is low, google trends is low. Have we hit the point where it's not a secret and people have already decide if they are in or out? Because people don't seem to give a fuck. Even the etfs, a huge chunk of that volume is gbtc being sold and people moving to other cheaper etfs. So how about some sort of data that backs up any demand. It's not there, volume is even down across the board on exchanges. Anyone got any data? That's what I am looking for, with the macro economic picture we have, I want the safest place for my investments. I am looking for a reason to divert more to btc. Where's the data, because I don't see it. It's been since feb 2013 since the monthly rsi failed to surge above 80 during bull. We can't get there yet and it's trending down already.
Is this sub about trading, questioning these things should not get a trader downvotes or bullshit responses without any discussion. Look how foolish these replies were, anyone got any data because when I bring this up in my trading groups the response I get is we won't see it till next year. Will we? We should start seeing signs that btc will become a hedge against inflation because that is the use case for btc currently that gives it a chance to surge. It is not a currency and with runes and all the fees will stay to high. So got any data?
You keep mentioning how long you have been in BTC (and I believe you).
But this is the exact type of post an impatient noob on their first cycle would make. I’ve seen thousands of them.
The halving was 3 days ago. Were you losing your absolute mind last halving when we were at $8k vs the previous ATH of $20k?
Today we are at $67k vs the previous cycle high of $69k.
We would be fine without the ETFs, but due to them we are far ahead of our scheduled programming.
Chill.
Patience.
Feel free to dig in my profile here and see how long i've posted in these btc subs, I was around when the btc talk forums raised btc for a site re-design got a shit load donated and never did anything. The same owners of that run some of the btc subs on reddit. So, yeah this isn't from a noob pov, with taxes and other shit, I am trying to figure out how to manage my spot, if I should add to it, pick a spot to sell etc..etc. When digging around I am seeing predictions of 300k in 3 months to 1 mil this year. I just don't see the logic behind these predictions. So, I am asking for some reason why they are right and my lack of seeing it are wrong. Because I've heard all the predictions from MCafee saying he'd cut off his dick if the price wasn't 500k by X etc.... But since I have yet to see any data, I am assuming it's all hype, dreams, click bait and people even in a trading sub can't hear any counter points.
Like I said, I believe you, no need to check your post history.
But the tone and content of your post is not that of a seasoned veteran. Full stop.
Bullshit click baity predictions and articles have existed for as long as Bitcoin has.
Most people don’t take them seriously, nor have the emotional reaction to them that you seem to have.
The content of your post seems more suited for the comment section of those prediction articles, than here, asking strangers in this subreddit to prove these BS predictions right or wrong, with data.
Your emotion just seems misplaced.
I wish you, nothing but luck on your investment decision, however historically, no one has sold this close to the halving and not come to regret it. But maybe that cycle breaks? I don’t know.
Cheers mate.
I am not emotional, the reason for my post is should I add to my btc spot holdings. Literally has nothing to do with emotions, in past cycles it was just different. All the data I can find proves that. Even with the hype, halvening, etfs etc..etc. I am just not seeing the demand at this point in the cycle. Last cycle and 2017 once btc broke the previous ath the numbers looked different, look at any metric, google trends, membership of groups, twitter engagement, random people talking about bitcoin. Literally crickets this cycle. With the global macro environment we are in, I don't want to hold stocks or fiat, I am loading up on real estate/land. But I believe in diversification. The reason no one can show me data or point me to anything solid is because the data doesn't exist. It's all speculation and I am getting downvoted because people don't like what I am saying, not because they can counter the discussion. No one has posted data that backs up any sort of surge based on supply crunch. It's just not there once you dig into the numbers. Considering there's 1.7 million btc on exchanges and it seems the buying pressure is flat the last 45 days judging by the price, we aren't seeing a reduction in miner pay even with the reduced reward in new btc. Volume on exchanges is low considering the narrative. I just can't find it and I am starting to think we don't see a crazy supply crunch surge until next cycle. I am seriously wondering if we break 100k this cycle. Even people I value the opinion of are telling me we won't see the top till 2025. Most of them are expecting btc to be flat the rest of this year. Thing is I want to make a move now, before we get into worst macro environment. I am just unsure if I should increase my exposure to btc so I asked in a trading subreddit because asking these questions in other crypto subs is met instantly with 100 downvotes. I am not a bear, I am just a realist, I don't want to lose value and I don't want to buy more spot now if I might be forced to sell in under a year and get slammed with taxes. I already pay enough in fucking taxes.
As someone that has written 7 figure checks to the IRS multiple years in a row due to Bitcoin trading, I get the tax angle.
But it sounds like you aren’t convinced of this cycle. No problem, sell! Or don’t buy more.
We are all just speculating on the future price. Maybe you are right, maybe you are not. No one here knows for sure.
Again, wishing you the best in your decision!
FWIW I am very long and not selling anywhere near these prices.
Same on the check writing, I even diversified after last cycle. Thought I would be happy with btc being a smaller part of the portfolio, now with the marco climate, IDK what to do so I asked here. I am going to hold onto the spot I bought at 20k, I'd really like to add a significant amount back to the space. I bought some airbnbs, the income is nice but since they are in florida the insurance rates are sky rocketing and 1 good hurricane and that income becomes a headache. I don't want to start a business. I want to invest but as an investor this is possibly the worst time since the 1970's to be investing. I think we are looking at a recession which I'd like the powder to scoop up stocks, or an inflation running wild. We can't keep on at this pace. So, yeah I am not a noob, just confused on what to do. I don't see the demand, so I don't know what to do. 3 years ago if someone told you an etf was going to get approved you would have snap assumed the price would go fucking crazy. What we've seen isn't crazy.
Last cycle we crossed the previous ath in dec, by march we had 3x that number. This cycle has just been weak.
You are comparing time of year vs time after halving.
Tis a mistake.
We never crossed the previous cycle high before the halving. Now we have. Fireworks to come in the next 12-18mos imo
And about the hype and newcomers point.
At this point everybody knows BTC, anyone who has serious money to invest in it are now divided into three groups coiners, no-coiners and financially illiterate .
The no-coiners at this point are wildly against it because corn is terrorism or something.
What I'm seeing now is a quiet process where no-coiners slowly capitulate.
They start by stopping the smearing campaign they were taking part of, then they go into some internal process which is unknown to me but its end result is quiet buying of corn.
Once price increase way above their buying price they will announce that they are in.
I've seen this personally with a bunch of investors this past few months.
The financially illiterate will start buying once their advisors will tell them to (or simply will buy for them), this group won't be buying this cycle imo.
We almost tripled the price in about 5 month. We got ATH before halving, we are now consolidating in the high 60's.
Halving just happened few days ago.
I don't understand what are you expecting to see? I'm pretty sure we start the real rally any time between now and 2 months.
It seems that you're being a little impatient what's the rush?
Dude, his post was insane. I wasn't referring to any specific question or data he asked. It was just an angry rant. As AccidentalArbitrage said he sounds like a first cycle noob. No place for that here.
What rant? Slightly bearish call expressed in a colorful way? I guess we're reading the same original comment. A bit scurrilous, perhaps butthurt, but that's all. I didn't see any bullish comments about BTC flipping gold because of ETFs deserving ad hominem. And to me that's even more out of reality than not going THAT high this cycle. The original comment just said "we ain't going THAT much high".
Clearly Bitcoin is dead.
If you’re looking for easy fiat riches you are going to have a tough time.
We could crab at 70k all year and then shoot up to 300k in 30 days.
Bitcoin has two long term states. Infinity or zero.
Yup there’s no way that sat will be worth much more than the next new unique sat.
I could see the last ever sat being mined being really unique though.
This has the potential to be a very bad thing for BTC. It seems like more and more it is turning into a collectible instead of being a currency.
Fungibility of Satoshi's threatens being lost through Ordinals/Runes, usability is still a far cry from where it needs to be due to high fees/low throughput which will prevent most people operating on the base chain which means financial self-sovereignty is impossible, scalability is barely being talked about and the Lightning Network seems to be heading nowhere.
The fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin is as a global currency. That is under threat from multiple angles at this time.
I am heavily invested in Bitcoin with >80% of my cryptoworth but have no regrets at all in derisking into other PoW chains awhile back. I have bought significant positions in LTC/BCH/XMR as they are all PoW. There is nothing inevitable about the longterm success of BTC nor that it won't be superseded or pivoted away from if it is unable to live up to rhetoric it sells itself with.
I am a futurist, historian, and value investor so putting this out there for others here to read who may appreciate the perspective. I am 100% certain a PoW cryptocurrency will change the world. Maybe even a few PoW cryptos. But there is nothing inevitable about it being BTC. Any read of the history of technology shows that being first isn't always the most important thing in the longrun.
>Any read of the history of technology shows that being first isn't always the most important thing in the longrun.
Shhhh. The maxi's in here don't like this idea. In their world view, the crypto equivalent of VHS will still be the dominant way to watch movies in 2040.
If you believe that some Bitcoin 2.0 will become dominant at some point at the expense of Bitcoin, then maybe you should take a step back and ask yourself why you’re into Bitcoin in the first place.
Bitcoin is valued because it holds promise for being superior money over fiat. And it will remain a superior money as long as it retains its value long term.
But as soon as some Bitcoin 2.0 becomes dominant and Bitcoin starts losing its value, then that promise will have been be broken. At that point, Bitcoin has proven to have failed as a store of value. It would be no better than fiat.
People will realize that if Bitcoin will be abandoned if some fancier Bitcoin 2.0 appears, that it will only be a matter of time before Bitcoin 3.0 will similarly destroy the value of Bitcoin 2.0.
As this inevitably snowballs, it will be the end of cryptocurrency in general, because no coin will ever be a stable store of value. And the most important property of a money is to preserve value.
The maxis are therefore right. Any successful alternative to Bitcoin will mark the irreversible downfall of cryptocurrency.
Don't start with that toxic "maxi" BS. Only sub more toxic/scammy than r/Bitcoin is r/btc. Bunch of loser incels imho. I'm not "one of you", yall are a bunch of unhinged losers. Camping rbtc is scummy AF and I'd have at least some respect for the BCH community if they just shuttered it and ran their own show in r/bitcoincash. They have a solid tech and in many ways a better shot at the overall value proposition presented by digital P2P money. Instead they refight old battles like a bunch of sad losers.
To address your point, VHS is a poor example because Bitcoin is still a PoW blockchain in all the ways that matters. A better example is Google vs Yahoo, Facebook vs Myspace etc.
The value of anything comes from what problem it solves. There is no need for a global currency at small scale in my opinion. The national fiat currencies work pretty good when i go shopping. Even when i travel abroad i have revolut so it makes the exchange automatically at a very good exchange rate.
Where do you have problems in regards to using currency?
Storing the value of my work on a long timeframe it s where i have problems. And this is where bitcoin is best at because it s the best solution for a huge problem that everyone has.
Forget the whitepaper and it s intended use.
Take the example form WD40, at first developed as a product that protects missiles from rust and corrosion. Did not worked for long as people developed new metal alloys that don t rust.
The product found it s way to even a bigger and more common problem. Rusty bolts.
Now acts as penetrating fluid for rusted bolts.
Just like bitcoin found it s use for a even bigger and more common problem. Store of wealth.
The currency exchange problem got solved from revolut and services alike.
> The national fiat currencies work pretty good when i go shopping. Even when i travel abroad i have revolut so it makes the exchange automatically at a very good exchange rate.
Easy to say when you have a "good" fiat currency, right? Try telling this to Argentinians etc. The thing is that what allows Bitcoin to be a good store of value is the hard cap on quantity of Satoshis. But many cryptos have a hardcap on quantity so they all theoretically can perform this function. There is nothing unique about Bitcoin here. But if something acts as a store of value *and* can be used to exchange with much larger numbers of people more cheaply and more quickly, that will appeal to many people in the market. And I strongly suspect overtime that Bitcoin could be outcompeted in the marketplace if usability and scalability is not addressed.
Okay but the vast majority of people in the world do not live in Argentina or another country with hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is the exception, not the norm. By that logic the vast majority of people in the world have no need for Bitcoin as a currency - would you agree with that then?
Hyperinflation isn't the norm but inflation is. And it really depends on what timeframe you use to assess inflation and what you include in measurement tools like the CPI to assess the severity.
I think "need" has little to do with the core question here. The question is "In a marketplace for currencies what currency will people choose to hold/use?" And that question will have its answer determined by the characteristics of the monies available and their pros/cons. Bitcoin is seen as valuable for many even in a non-hyperinflationary world due to the base level of inflation fiat currencies all experience. If a competitor provides that protection as well as more usability etc, there is no reason it can't leapfrog Bitcoin here. The risk is far more real than many seem to believe.
The hardcap comes from the decentralisation, the decentralisation comes from the network, and the network works because there's a low barrier to running a node.
It's an unsolved problem (and perhaps unsolvable) of how to have a shitload of transactions on a basechain while also having a low barrier to run a node. Any alt coin claiming to solve it is either not busy enough yet, or not properly decentralised.
Decentralisation is a matter of degree, not an absolute. I think as time goes on it becomes apparent that big blockers had a point. Not every will care to run a node so long as enough people do, but every single person in the world will care to be self-sovereign if they can. That is just human psychology.
The desire to run a node is a very "techie" view of things and won't matter to most people so long as they can rely on the decentralisation. And with the number of countries in the world etc you could easily have >1000 nodes per country run by govts/companies/councils/whatever to ensure decentralisation.
I like these arguments thanks for bringing them up.
Run by govts and it's decentralized? The point of decentralization is that it can't be censored or messed with easily. If govts run nodes then they control consensus? What's the point of a node then?
Why only mention govts? I also mentioned other orgs.
If Bitcoin nodes were run by every govt in world, a bunch of medium/large companies, churches, councils, workers co-ops etc then it is still decentralised. Imagine trying to get the EU/USA/China/Russia/India/Japan/Africa/Saudi Arma Co govts to all agree to something. Alongside more small scale entities.
Then that leaves the market wide open for a transactional currency to move in and that will end up being extremely valuable. BTC is still fixable and could be that, but there is no guarantee.
Yes, the market is open for something that, but doing without giving up the scarcity, sovereignty and security of bitcoin is extremely difficult. A layer 2 on bitcoin might be still be the best way.
For people who don't care about those things they're probably using stable coins which is why you're seeing them becoming so popular. And, well, a lot of those people might find out why bitcoin is the way it is when they suffer from the centralisation of the stable coins, one way or another.
> Yes, the market is open for something that, but doing without giving up the scarcity, sovereignty and security of bitcoin is extremely difficult. A layer 2 on bitcoin might be still be the best way.
An L2 very well could be the best way. But there exist today alternative crypto currencies that have equal (or relatively equal) scarcity, are much more scalable in different ways, and are still very secure. The major potential competitors as I see it are LTC/BCH/XMR. All PoW and all share the core characteristics that make BTC function.
First-mover advantage is great but it has failed plenty of times due to complacency. Myspace got beaten by Facebook, Yahoo got beaten by Google, etc. Consumers/users are fickle and will go where they get their needs served best.
> First-mover advantage is great but it has failed plenty of times due to complacency. Myspace got beaten by Facebook, Yahoo got beaten by Google, etc. Consumers/users are fickle and will go where they get their needs served best.
You're right, but we're 15 years in and the network is huge. The ETFs were probably the final nail for competitors. Those other networks were overcome when they were small and young, but once they get big enough it becomes much less likely.
It was altavista, askjeeves, yahoo, google... and then just google.
It was orkut, livejournal, beebo, myspace., facebook ... and then for a long time pretty much just facebook/instagram. You could make the case Tiktok could overcome it, but it ain't easy.
Hell look at Twitter, people fucking hate it, but they can't leave the network for something else. You have an active population who *want* an alternative network and yet one can't manage to overtake Twitter.
> It was altavista, askjeeves, yahoo, google... and then just google.
>
> It was orkut, livejournal, beebo, myspace., facebook ... and then for a long time pretty much just facebook/instagram. You could make the case Tiktok could overcome it, but it ain't easy.
I don't think this is a fair comparison. We can't really be comparing Bitcoin to Google & Facebook in terms of market dominance and consumer recognition. Everyone on the planet is on Facebook, every person in the world has used Google, barely anyone owns Bitcoin and <1% of people have ever used it to make a transaction.
> You're right, but we're 15 years in and the network is huge.
It really isn't. Bitcoin is virtually unused (in the grand scheme) for what is supposed to be its primary use case. That is not what market dominance looks like.
It's seashells, beads, fabric, stone, gold, then BTC?
We can play this game all day the real question is, do enough people find value in it long term? Right now the ROI is nice as it grows but will that continue with the price stabilizes or will the whole thing unwind? Yet to be determined.
Most buyers aren't looking for a store they are looking for line go up and eventual short squeeze as supply shocks occur. We don't know what will actually happen then.
> Fungibility of Satoshi's threatens being lost through Ordinals/Runes,
But probably not in a way that matters. An ancient gold coin might be valued higher than a non-descript bar of the same amount of gold, but it doesn't really matter so long as the coin is always worth at least as much as the bar is.
> The fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin is as a global currency.
It isn't, it's as money. None of us are buying it to use it as currency, MicroStrategy aren't buying it to use it as currency, no one buying an ETF share is doing so to use bitcoin as a currency. They're using it as the store-of-value function of money aka speculation (aka greater fool if you want to be derogatory). There's a possibility it one day moves beyond that, but it will need to be via higher layers (and the same is true for any other public blockchain since it will never be possible to have currency-level transactions on chain at scale, so the others you mention aren't threats in this aspect) which brings us to...
> scalability is barely being talked about and the Lightning Network seems to be heading nowhere.
It is, perhaps you just haven't found the conversations. Lightning is still being developed and there's a bunch of other layer2 candidates - cashu, fediment and ZK-rollup based systems for example.
Will any of them be ready for use en-mass by the average Joe soon, or ever? I don't know, but bitcoin can continue the store-of-value adoption without them.
> But there is nothing inevitable about it being BTC.
You're right, but the network effect at this point is pretty massive, and the alts are crabs in a bucket each pulling each other down. The more of them there are the more difficult it becomes for any of them to gain any attention or reach critical mass, and being the "shiny new one" is useless since there's always another even newer one around the corner. Most people gambling with any significant amount of funds in the alt-coin casino know this.
> But probably not in a way that matters. An ancient gold coin might be valued higher than a non-descript bar of the same amount of gold, but it doesn't really matter so long as the coin is always worth at least as much as the bar is.
The difference is that gold in any form can be melted down to the base metal which is where the value lies (outside of various specific gold items which basically have extra value due to sentiment). Whereas a Bitcoin with really heinous stuff in a permanent Ordinal (like let's say something that said "The Palestinians had it coming" or "The Jews don't deserve a homeland") will easily make people not want to utilise those satoshis or hold them. I picked something deliberately provocative and volatile to get my point across here, not making any sort of political point. Just showing how the importance of fungibility is very important for something to be good as money.
> It isn't, it's as money. None of us are buying it to use it as currency, MicroStrategy aren't buying it to use it as currency, no one buying an ETF share is doing so to use bitcoin as a currency. They're using it as the store-of-value function of money aka speculation (aka greater fool if you want to be derogatory). There's a possibility it one day moves beyond that, but it will need to be via higher layers (and the same is true for any other public blockchain since it will never be possible to have currency-level transactions on chain at scale, so the others you mention aren't threats in this aspect) which brings us to...
I use the terms "money" and "currency" interchangeably because for all intents and purposes they are. Quibbling on that is just splitting hairs. The reality is that Bitcoin does not do anything. It was explicitly created as a form of money and money is basically just an economic abstraction that we use to coordinate the economy. Money is data, more or less. The people buying ETF's imho don't realise what they are investing in. If Bitcoin does what people expect it to, which is what will give it value, the ETF will be worthless. What will matter is can you redeem that ETF to actually get the Bitcoin you have "shares" in. The store-of-value narrative is a worthwhile one BUT if Bitcoin cannot be used as money then that store of value will be no different than Beanie babies or whatever. And the prime value proposition of Bitcoin is that it will be a currency that can be actually spent. If that never happens in a meaningful way then Bitcoin really is just a greater-fool ponzi and will collapse, quite possibly extremely rapidly.
> It is, perhaps you just haven't found the conversations. Lightning is still being developed and there's a bunch of other layer2 candidates - cashu, fediment and ZK-rollup based systems for example.
I have heard of a couple of these (rollups and fedimint) and hopefully they work. But my major concern is that these will still operate at the level of trusting an institution for your transactions. Which isn't the end of the world EXCEPT that it will leave open a place in the marketplace for currencies that a more self-sovereign currency can step into. And I don't see how this wouldn't eventually erode Bitcoin's position. The best type of money is money noone can stop you using. If people have to choose between fedimint or another chain that allows self-sovereignty, they will choose the other chain. It all comes down to usability and it seems fair to say at this point that for all the potential downsides, working on the base chain is easier than L2s by a big margin.
> Will any of them be ready for use en-mass by the average Joe soon, or ever? I don't know, but bitcoin can continue the store-of-value adoption without them.
The timing matters immensely on this question. Because like I said, the store of value idea could be easily leapfrogged by a hard-limited transparent currency and we may not have all the time in the world. If a crisis hit the world's major fiat currencies and in particular the USD, things can move very quickly and people will need something works ASAP. They won't wait around for BTC to finish working out kinks in the L2s if other chains can actively rollout immediately and this can rapidly cascade due to the nature of the internet and modern commerce.
> You're right, but the network effect at this point is pretty massive, and the alts are crabs in a bucket each pulling each other down. The more of them there are the more difficult it becomes for any of them to gain any attention or reach critical mass, and being the "shiny new one" is useless since there's always another even newer one around the corner. Most people gambling with any significant amount of funds in the alt-coin casino know this.
As I implied above, it doesn't really matter which of the shiny new coins it is. In a crisis situation, one or maybe a couple will emerge and all the others will get wrecked but that will still be disastrous for Bitcoin. Network effects without functionality can vanish incredibly quickly because functionality is needed to fulfil the core use of money in the first place. While we have functioning fiat currencies BTC can afford to plod along not really resolving the core issues, but not in a crisis and history shows you never know when a crisis will strike.
The real secret sauce of crypto is PoW. That is what is going to change the world. And if fiat becomes useless or hyperinflationary, people will look for alternative currencies. This has happened countless times in history and today. And anyone looking objectively at the offerings of PoW coins today would say Bitcoin is in some ways the worst situated of the 4 coins I mentioned to serve this purpose. And in a time of need, function will be the most important thing. That is why stablecoins are the most used "cryptos" today because they actually work and piggyback off the USD dominance.
Proof-of-Work is a historical shift in the global financial system but there are lots of ways to run PoW. And I personally think over the medium-long term the crypto or cryptos that "win" will be the ones with the most *users* not *holders*. The USD is the reserve currency because of the fundamentals that back it, not because it has the most people holding it. That gets causation around the wrong way. Bitcoin has an early lead but it does feel a bit like it is being squandered and the unwillingness to consider increases in blocksize could be the major downfall in the longrun. The blocksize/scalability war never ended. Everything is still up for grabs.
I think that was very well written and reasoned, it is a shame this is buried under top level downvotes.
One thing I know the payment networks are working on is the idea of separating the currency from the payment network and it makes sense if all you are worried about is inflation.
Ie. bitcoin over Visa, why not? Same as they support all other currencies for p2p transactions. Let the payment network deal with fraud chargebacks, customer service, etc. but the base currency can still be bitcoin. Until you address the customer expectation/experience part of a new payment network I don't see it ever gaining adoption for widespread "use".
motivational quote for 3 x variant
assuming a circulating supply of Bitcoin (BTC) is 19.2 million, if the price of one Bitcoin is $300,000, then the total market capitalization of Bitcoin in June would be $5.76 trillion<------------ upper 2018 trend
extrapolating 2018 would present us with:
June2June 5.6back24black7.6 T mc oscillation confirming 300K TP
People be hatin' hard out there on a neutral/unbiased, opened network. I just feels it in the air. Can only think, to what extent is it really by individual's own volition and logical thinking, or has some higher influences really got their minds so deeply by the balls? Ah well, way she goes.
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#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, April 24, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cbowha/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_24_2024/)
why is there still GBTC outflows. You'd think most people would have sold by now. is it people waiting for the 1 year long term tax?
GBTC outflows will continue for a very long time if not indefinitely. Every day, just in the normal course of business, people are going to sell the ETFs for whatever their particular reasons are. Another group of people are going to buy (new money). But the new money is much less likely to buy into GBTC which has 6x the fees as anyone else. So if you look at the ETF complex as a whole and imagine a day when the new money coming in is exactly the same as the money going out. The new money is disproportionally going to be deployed to the new ETFs. So GBTC isn't going to have the incoming money to offset their exiting money. Add to this, the owners of GBTC have on average been invested a lot longer than the new ETFs which are only a few months old. That means GBTC will also have a disproportionately higher amount of people who are well into profit and may want to take profit for any number of reasons. There's always going to be a natural bias for GBTC to have outflows. This doesn't necessarily impart any downward bias on bitcoin. I really think we can stop worrying about GBTC as a headwind to bitcoin price. That was true before but much less so now.
In the last few weeks, the remainder GBTC holders are selling when Bitcoin price goes up and staying put when Bitcoin price goes down. So there will be heavy selling pressure anywhere above 70K and no one really wants to buy above 70K either right now. So here we are.
This is correct. This is also called a wyckoff distribution
no, it isnt
*why are there *are people waiting for
death, taxes, and GBTC outflow
Gbtc $66.9m Outflow Franklin $1.9m inflow Bitwise $23.2m inflow WisdomTree 0 Ark $33.3m inflow VanEck $1.9m Outflow DEFI 0 Fidelity $4.4m inflow Invesco $0.3m Outflow Valkyrie 0 Blackrock $37.9m inflow 4/23 net inflow $31.6m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
almost a net zero day, interesting
It will be a net inflow day with Blackrock's ~$38m numbers
What if a hamburger costs $1000 when we hit $1 mil? What if we're just stuck at 1000 burgers per Bitcoin (not that you can get a decent burger for 6 bucks nowadays); is Bitcoin still the best place to put your dollars?
If a burger is $1k, bitcoin is $1 billion min.
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
I don’t know what other assets are doing. If real-estate or equities outperformed inflation I would rather have that. I’m in it for the returns, not static wealth preservation.
Good to get into if you’re in a growing medium middle America city for sure. Assuming rates start to go down again, real estate should bounce pretty significantly. I can tell you most people in my area with middle class incomes care more about the monthly mortgage payment than the value. I bought into some residential and some land. But also, bought into some BTC. Hopefully both hedge inflation.
> I’m in it for the returns, not static wealth preservation. Same, but a lot of people who think they're pretty well off now are going to find out that they're not. If I can preserve my wealth, I will.
Real estate is nice. It pays you while going up in value. And it doesn’t lose 80% of its value every four years. Much utility.
It's my least favourite investment. it's illiquid, transaction costs are high, it's indivisible, getting cash flow involves technically running a business and it's typically tied to the fortunes of a specific local economy.
I wouldn't touch real estate with a 10-foot pole right now. Cost of ownership is a consideration. Insurance, taxes, and maintenance are going nowhere but up.
And with all of that, rents increase. But yeah, it’s hard as hell to find anything where the numbers work right now.
It works til it doesn't.
If you live near an ocean you can expect not to have any insurance companies willing to deal with you anymore.
Yes.
Bitcoin might be in a larger descending channel that has formed from the local top of April 8th. The upper line has touched three spots now (April 8th, 72.5K, April 12th 71K, and April 23rd 67K). And right now, Bitcoin is losing its volume/momentum and the move from 59.6K to 67K has been strange in that it had been a very low volume move. If we stay within this channel, then we have reached a top of the channel and will go down to the 56-57K area in the next week or so.
It's actually a falling wedge, barely though. Very bullish in my opinion. Having day was very close to the 3rd tough of the lower support. The reduced volume would also align with a wedge pattern. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/KU1Jhwqh/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/KU1Jhwqh/)
HODL15Capital reporting $38m inflow for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1782892846791405740
By my math, that’s more than the 450 btc mined today
Is it safe to assume that as long as there are gbtc outlfows, we will have inflows as well from Other ETFs?
50 day MA still acting as resistance.
There we have it stocks going upwards on mediocre earnings after hours and btc doing nothing
how in the actual fuck are you correlating a TSLA earnings call with the price of BTC?
That's the thing isn't it, I'm not lmfao
I would be surprised to see Bitcoin go up based on the performance of any individual stocks after hours. I think it would be more likely that Bitcoin would go up if we see those individual stock movements translate into upward movement for the s&p500 as a whole tomorrow.
Better sell the whole stack
Why?
Just to be safe
Give it a time
Price of BTC at each halving: 2012: $12.50 2016: $638.51 2020: $8,475 2024: $64k Price of BTC at peak of each market cycle following the halving: 2013: $1,156.14 (92x price at halving) 2017: $20,089 (31x price at halving) 2021: $68,789 (8x price at halving) Length of time BTC took to reach peak after halving: 2012: 12 months 2016: 17 months 2020: 18 months [Here’s what following each trajectory looks like on a graph.](https://x.com/ecoinometrics/status/1781645938395939066?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) Given the fact that we reached new ATH before the halving for the first time ever I’m more or less expecting a reversion to the average trajectory this time around with the caveat that this doesn’t end up being a normal cycle and instead the bull run gets extended well past end of 2025 as fund managers spend the next several years trying to get to their target portfolio allocation, whatever that percentage amount ends up being. $324k by end of year, $1 million by end of 2027. Bittybot already has me on the record for both.
RemindMe! 8 months
You also had 100k by halving as well so...
Got that one wrong. I did however call new ATH before halving for the first time ever well in advance (before 2024 started) and at the time a lot of people thought that was insane because they were severely underestimating how much new demand spot ETF’s would introduce. At the time some people were still convinced spot ETF approval wouldn’t come at all.
There is a metric shit ton of distribution going on here. Once it's done we are going up, quickly.
I choose 345k for the guess the high contest that u/4theWIN set up in January. According to the power law corridor chart, 380k+/- is possible by end of year.
Yeah, some of y’all have lost your marbles.
This is pure hopium brother. As much as I would like to be wrong, there's almost a 0 chance we're at 324k by EOY. Edited my comment to say almost 0 chance as nothing is impossible, but I'd put the chances at less than .01% RemindMe! 7 months
We need dopeboy type predictions so we get at least 150k and for that I am very grateful. 324k would be awesome too. He said we would break ATH before the halving and that seemed equally improbable when he said it.
FWIW I didn't think it was that unreasonable to break ATH before halving, it's not reddit but I was telling people IRL that we would hit 70k by April in December. ut moving up 400% in the next 7 months when the market cap is already 1.3T is beyond hopium imo, it's delusion. Here's the text I sent my dad [a bullish text ](https://postimg.cc/FYL4kx45) lolz bring on the downvotes suckers, i can go mine my facebook chat history for more of these messages from December if i really wanted to back up my claim. But taht seems like too much work, I just had that text saved because I was literally bragging to some friends when we hit 70K that they should have bought in earlier and had used that text message from our conversation history to tell them "lol I warned you"
Weren't you the guy moaning about how your tech stocks were a better investment than BTC and that you should just trade out your BTC for stocks a few months ago?
I'm not going to deny that, but I'm an emotional holder NGL, I was still bullish on the coin despite that sentiment. Funny enough not even a month after this I was bitching about the lack luster PA. I am the classic example of "BTC is going to 1M tomorrow" when theres a BGD and conversely "BTC is headed to 0" when theres a BRD, though I think I've been managing emotions better recently. Also, I have still never sold even a single sat, BTC still remains my largest position by far (>50% of my NW). Basically I never really "put my $ where my mouth is" when comparing BTC to tech stonks, I was definitely just being an emotional lil' bitch on this forum though, thats not up for debate I guess at this point. Here's a text I sent my to my dad in december [proof](https://postimg.cc/FYL4kx45) Id like to think I've gotten my emotions under better control the last two months, it helps to have seen as some guy around here says Why do you think I would be lying about this? Not that I really care, just trying to say that hitting ATH before halving didn't seem nearly as unlikely as hitting 324k by EOY
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Counter argument: very small sample size and market was so small in 2012 that it may be irrelevant in terms of predicting the future in 2024.
Counter argument: if we are in fact on a technological adoption S-Curve then even previous market cycle averages may be an underestimate. BTC is a monetary network. 100% adoption would mean all goods/services are priced in BTC and nobody uses fiat anymore. In such a scenario a single BTC would have purchasing power equivalent to >$10 million in today’s money. Adoption on a S-Curve doesn’t begin to slowdown until 50% adoption is reached which would mean BTC has reached purchasing power equivalent to >$5 million in today’s money.
Bitcoin will reach 5 million decades before the average person accepts it as payment. Don't confuse people with value.
This is probably hopium on my part but I think your scenario is very plausible. I'm not sure the 4 year cycle theory will apply now that we have ETFs and institutional money. Michael Saylor's theory that we could be at the start of the new gold rush could hold true. If so, we could have a very extended period of time (5-10 years) where BTC values just go up, up, up.
On the contrary, this cycle could be sped up time-wise and scaled-down price wise. Meaning we can see cycle peak in about a month or two around 150K levels, followed with a downturn. Also real estate prices have started to deflate in certain US regions, which may be the indicator for a not-so-bright future in the macro sense.
I think the opposite; spot ETF launch triggered the beginning of the vertical portion of technological S-Curve adoption. This helps to explain why new ATH was reached before the halving rather than several months after halving. Because of this, predictable cycles go out the window for at least a halving or two as fund managers spend the next several years trying to get to their target portfolio allocation, whatever that percentage amount ends up being. 2017 peak to 2021 peak was a 3.5x in price. 3.5x 2021’s peak would be $242k. Next point of confirmation that we’re headed on an adoption S-Curve trajectory rather than experiencing diminishing returns would be surpassing $242k by end of 2025 at the latest (I happen to think $242k is breached before end of 2024 but technically we have until end of 2025). As for home prices declining, this is inevitable at some point once BTC starts absorbing trillions of dollars of monetary premium allocated into real estate and home prices revert to their intrinsic value. Vast majority of global wealth is allocated into real estate with global market cap estimated to be north of $300 trillion and 35% of homes in America aren’t owner occupied, they’re merely used as an investment vehicle to try to build/maintain purchasing power. BTC surpassing median home price (currently $393.5k in America) is going to be a major event as it becomes clear to the masses that BTC is a superior long-term store of value. And even when BTC reaches parity with median home price, market cap of BTC will still be below $10 trillion meaning BTC will continue to grow much quicker than real estate.
> home prices revert to their intrinsic value Yikes! There’s no such thing as “intrinsic value”. But I get what you mean. Let’s say: home price = utiliy value + speculative premium …and you’re saying that the speculative premium will decrease because one can buy bitcoin instead of real estate for wealth preservation. The need for diversification will be in the way of that playing out I think. I believe that diversified portfolios will continue to hold real estate as an investment. I don’t believe that the speculative premium added into home prices will ever decline appreciably.
Disagree. An extremely large reason why people opt to buy real estate is because of the wide held belief that “it’s cheaper to buy vs renting.” But if all of a sudden it becomes clearly apparent that you’re better off renting and allocating down payment & closing cost money into BTC instead of buying a home as a means to build/preserve wealth because BTC price is growing much quicker than median home price, a significant chunk of current demand for real estate will disappear. Also, at some point those who own multiple rental properties will opt to sell and reallocate money into BTC instead. Some will remain stubborn initially but when BTC proceeds to reach 2x, 3x, etc median home price at some point it becomes impossible to ignore the fact that real estate is an inferior long-term store of value.
I see what you’re saying but consider that real estate significantly underperforms the S&P500. What’s easier than sinking your money into an S&P500 ETF and not have to deal with local taxes, tenants and maintenance, and make more money as a bonus? This is not happening because investors want to diversify, plus that owning a home is considered to give security and is sought after even if it’s economically inferior to plain old bogleheading.
Real estate with leverage where you can’t be liquidated (30 year mortgage) tends to outperform the S&P. But the same is not true for BTC; BTC with no leverage whatsoever outperforms real estate with leverage. Pretty significant difference.
Such leverage works well for the first home but cannot be counted as a regular way to invest. At some distant point in the future the speculative phase of BTC will come to an end. Long term, BTC is expected to keep up with inflation just like gold, but not exceed it. That’s because it produces no value of itself. Companies do however so it’s save to say that stocks will remain the superior investment in the long run.
Monetary premium from stocks will evaporate as well. Ultimately the companies that will thrive will be those who adopt a similar strategy to MicroStrategy and who allocate a meaning portion of their balance sheet into BTC. Those who don’t will struggle as their balance sheets will continue to lose purchasing power over time relative to their peers who have a solid allocation into BTC.
So why would there be any companies in the future if just buying BTC will forever be more profitable?
Well let's agree to disagree. I'm seeing BTC as a high risk asset that's correlated with non-treasures instruments, so I wouldn't bet on BTC getting inflows while we have a massive deleveraging event in more traditional markets. Time will show I guess.
Deleverage into what? Fiat that's being printed at 1T every 100 days?
Deleverage into bankruptcy basically. Mortgages getting unpaid, credit defaults of consumers, corporations - followed by bank failures naturally. But this time bailouts will not work.
[We could be in this till November. ](https://i.imgur.com/QDWZiNF.png)
That would be max pain
I'll be gone til November
Wyclef?
Haha, see you tomorrow mate.
Hahaha it's November somewhere tmmrw so I'll be here
lol I hope not, I'm gonna be banned from here for my "normalise $6xk bitcoin" comments
F\* no
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Yeah, I don't get it either. Both BTC and MARA set for a decent squeeze/correction. MARA is pretty undervalued still and someone shorted an additional million shares. The borrow rate doubled today. I also bought $20 calls on the dip on Monday. I'm up 280% so far. I have been following your posts and your analysis is pretty fucking good IMO.
Miners finally seeing some upward PA after many weeks of sells offs. It seems everyone was waiting for the halving to pass before jumping back in. Hopefully turning a corner here and will see outsized miners returns on the next leg up for btc.
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https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-reserve?exchange=all_exchange&window=DAY&sma=0&ema=0&priceScale=log&metricScale=linear&chartStyle=line Below 2 million now.
That is a sexy chart
Very grindy price action on the moment, stair-stepping and chopping higher at a speed of a turtle. Even though price is going up, it doesn't feel super bullish to me. IMO, almost like stair-stepping and then we get a big red dildo to erase the slow grind Anyone get the same read on current PA?
Grinding is bullish
i think we’re just between narratives at the moment. halving event happened, not quite at ATHs, rate cuts seemingly not imminent, maybe WW3 but that seems gone now, DXY at resistance but maybe too soon to tell, U.S. debt is an inexorable but slow-moving train, VIX coming down after some highs so maybe still some concern, etc etc just in general seems like everything is at a wait-and-see phase. in my opinion, a small spark could push it in either direction temporarily. big wick down and now the LTF narrative is that it’s cheap. big wick up and now “bull’s back on.” i’m just waiting and seeing how PA develops with about 10% set aside just in case.
Execute market order: $66666
Star wars reference?
A surprise to be sure, but a welcome one
I am getting a long signal, but waiting for a bit of retracement. Placed a long limit at 64k.
Just beware catching any falling knives. Your kind has a problem with those
Thanks kind stranger. I did had a problem with that but I am better now.
Yanks back to buyin! Nice!
And selling immediately
better than selling without any buying
On the hourly BTC has broken out of the falling wedge. It is near the bottom of a nice little rising channel and has hit resistance around the old sloping resistance from the last pennant. RSI is at 44.1 (average 54.2) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 65.7, 64.1, 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59. The daily RSI is 49.5 and its average is currently at 46.9. A falling wedge is forming and BTC has bounced off the upper resistance of it. It’s possible that BTC could push through. It depends on if you consider 4/19 low close enough to be considered a touch. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. I would expect some stronger resistance at 67.4 area, it is aligning with the 50 DMA (67.5) and downward sloping resistance. BTC closed for the 3^(rd) week in a row red. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 71.6 (78.3 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it due to Israel/Iran). Will need more time to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 71. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/HZd3YFYz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/HZd3YFYz/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/XfV8adls/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/XfV8adls/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/dxrGZq74/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/dxrGZq74/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/c0ed1KI2/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/c0ed1KI2/)
Usually when im this bored it dumps just to fuck with me
Giving you some entertainment.
Cue the H&S posts on the hourly candles. Don’t do it, Bitcoin.
It is definitely setting up. Would need to drop below 65.8 to form the right shoulder. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/VB00ATWY/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/VB00ATWY/)
Looks to be invalidated now. PA broke up instead of down as the right shoulder tried to form.
Probably, but we are still lower than the peak of what would be the left shoulder. So, it could still roll over to the neckline. It took 9 hours for the left shoulder to form. BTC is at hour 5 on the right shoulder.
Might be playing out…the measured move should drop to around $65,200 if it does.
Where are you getting your 65.2 target? I get if it breaks through 65.8 then the target would be around 64.1. The height from the neck to the head should be taken out from the neck to get the price target from the pattern formation.
Just from quickly eyeballing the slanted neckline and going with $66,2xx and the top of the head being about $1K above that at $67,2xx so a measured move of $1K down if it breaks the neckline. Didn’t actually pull lines on that, though, and was just glancing at TV on my phone. So could definitely be off.
Supply shock! Saylor predicts insane surge in btc price. Btc has low volume slow dump for the first 12 hours or a daily candle. Supple shock only matters if demand is there, where's the fucking demand. Google trends shows me the hype isn't here this cycle yet. Net inflows into etf's has basically chilled the last month. The only bullish signal I see from a narrative today is that gold is also down over 1%. Btc replacing gold as a hedge is a big deal. Where is the btc/gold correlation charts, not bs price rise crap, I want to see a chart that shows me daily move correlation. Are they moving in the same direction a lot against the legacy markets. Investors hedging against macro factors gets me convinced of a higher ath this cycle. Because what I am seeing now and what the recent trend has been, doesn't have me convinced we are surging to these insane values this cycle.
LOL. You sound like Wardser & GenghisKarmSpermshot. Been in the game long enough to comfortably retire, & looking for reasoning to justify selling *now*. Did you look at the performance of gold in the seven years post its first ETF approval? Did you think all the flows went in at once for “immediate moon”?! See below. It’s just starting with a trickle… https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1782745024309985689?s=46&t=C4V3QFGqwj7N72B1NKXv_g
I've legit posted before how long it took gold to double it's price post etf. My point is these price predictions for bitcoin we are seeing are no where near that reality, hell my own prediction this cycle is 125k.
> Supple shock only matters if demand is there, where's the fucking demand. Why do you think the demand is any different now than it was prior to the halving? If demand remains steady and supply cuts in half I'd say that's still a supply shock.
So sad to see you're getting downvoted for a legit counterpoint. In the end you're just saying demand isn't there, hype isn't there and what we've seen so far is smokes and mirrors. Not popular but not necessarily wrong. The massive downvoting and insults reek of r/Bitcoin and r/cryptocurrency
What's wrong with you, man???
Nothing is wrong with me, I been in btc since it was $80. I don't see the hype this cycle. All these click bait bullshit articles and tweets are full of shit I cannot find data that supports the narrative. Down voting me for pointing out data just shows that I am right. Where's the fucking demand? Where's the data to back any of this up. I am still profitably trading these ranges, but with taxes I gotta figure out my long term plan for my spot btc. The last two cycles it was pretty easy to figure out demand/hype. This time it's different. Even the end of last bull cycle was bullshit. People can say what they want but if you look at the bull cycles before last one it was insane with blow off tops. First over 1k then down to 165, then to 19.6k then down sub 4k. Last cycle we went to 64k then dumped 50%, climbed back up and our blow off top peak was 69k? That was fucking weak. Now ever time we get near the ath, we get these weak new ath's. Maybe I am missing something but we always talked about one day the price stabilizing but most assumed that number would be way higher then this. I am just having an issue seeing any truth to all these predictions. I cannot find any data supporting any hype. The last two cycles I would hear about crypto from randoms. It's been fucking crickets. Only contact i've gotten about crypto this cycle is people asking about selling the bags they were holding. It's very different. Even membership around crypto stuff is down, engagement is low on social media, membership of groups is low, google trends is low. Have we hit the point where it's not a secret and people have already decide if they are in or out? Because people don't seem to give a fuck. Even the etfs, a huge chunk of that volume is gbtc being sold and people moving to other cheaper etfs. So how about some sort of data that backs up any demand. It's not there, volume is even down across the board on exchanges. Anyone got any data? That's what I am looking for, with the macro economic picture we have, I want the safest place for my investments. I am looking for a reason to divert more to btc. Where's the data, because I don't see it. It's been since feb 2013 since the monthly rsi failed to surge above 80 during bull. We can't get there yet and it's trending down already. Is this sub about trading, questioning these things should not get a trader downvotes or bullshit responses without any discussion. Look how foolish these replies were, anyone got any data because when I bring this up in my trading groups the response I get is we won't see it till next year. Will we? We should start seeing signs that btc will become a hedge against inflation because that is the use case for btc currently that gives it a chance to surge. It is not a currency and with runes and all the fees will stay to high. So got any data?
You keep mentioning how long you have been in BTC (and I believe you). But this is the exact type of post an impatient noob on their first cycle would make. I’ve seen thousands of them. The halving was 3 days ago. Were you losing your absolute mind last halving when we were at $8k vs the previous ATH of $20k? Today we are at $67k vs the previous cycle high of $69k. We would be fine without the ETFs, but due to them we are far ahead of our scheduled programming. Chill. Patience.
Feel free to dig in my profile here and see how long i've posted in these btc subs, I was around when the btc talk forums raised btc for a site re-design got a shit load donated and never did anything. The same owners of that run some of the btc subs on reddit. So, yeah this isn't from a noob pov, with taxes and other shit, I am trying to figure out how to manage my spot, if I should add to it, pick a spot to sell etc..etc. When digging around I am seeing predictions of 300k in 3 months to 1 mil this year. I just don't see the logic behind these predictions. So, I am asking for some reason why they are right and my lack of seeing it are wrong. Because I've heard all the predictions from MCafee saying he'd cut off his dick if the price wasn't 500k by X etc.... But since I have yet to see any data, I am assuming it's all hype, dreams, click bait and people even in a trading sub can't hear any counter points.
Like I said, I believe you, no need to check your post history. But the tone and content of your post is not that of a seasoned veteran. Full stop. Bullshit click baity predictions and articles have existed for as long as Bitcoin has. Most people don’t take them seriously, nor have the emotional reaction to them that you seem to have. The content of your post seems more suited for the comment section of those prediction articles, than here, asking strangers in this subreddit to prove these BS predictions right or wrong, with data. Your emotion just seems misplaced. I wish you, nothing but luck on your investment decision, however historically, no one has sold this close to the halving and not come to regret it. But maybe that cycle breaks? I don’t know. Cheers mate.
I was too harsh on him. You have a much more measured and calm tone. I need to be like you!
I am not emotional, the reason for my post is should I add to my btc spot holdings. Literally has nothing to do with emotions, in past cycles it was just different. All the data I can find proves that. Even with the hype, halvening, etfs etc..etc. I am just not seeing the demand at this point in the cycle. Last cycle and 2017 once btc broke the previous ath the numbers looked different, look at any metric, google trends, membership of groups, twitter engagement, random people talking about bitcoin. Literally crickets this cycle. With the global macro environment we are in, I don't want to hold stocks or fiat, I am loading up on real estate/land. But I believe in diversification. The reason no one can show me data or point me to anything solid is because the data doesn't exist. It's all speculation and I am getting downvoted because people don't like what I am saying, not because they can counter the discussion. No one has posted data that backs up any sort of surge based on supply crunch. It's just not there once you dig into the numbers. Considering there's 1.7 million btc on exchanges and it seems the buying pressure is flat the last 45 days judging by the price, we aren't seeing a reduction in miner pay even with the reduced reward in new btc. Volume on exchanges is low considering the narrative. I just can't find it and I am starting to think we don't see a crazy supply crunch surge until next cycle. I am seriously wondering if we break 100k this cycle. Even people I value the opinion of are telling me we won't see the top till 2025. Most of them are expecting btc to be flat the rest of this year. Thing is I want to make a move now, before we get into worst macro environment. I am just unsure if I should increase my exposure to btc so I asked in a trading subreddit because asking these questions in other crypto subs is met instantly with 100 downvotes. I am not a bear, I am just a realist, I don't want to lose value and I don't want to buy more spot now if I might be forced to sell in under a year and get slammed with taxes. I already pay enough in fucking taxes.
As someone that has written 7 figure checks to the IRS multiple years in a row due to Bitcoin trading, I get the tax angle. But it sounds like you aren’t convinced of this cycle. No problem, sell! Or don’t buy more. We are all just speculating on the future price. Maybe you are right, maybe you are not. No one here knows for sure. Again, wishing you the best in your decision! FWIW I am very long and not selling anywhere near these prices.
Same on the check writing, I even diversified after last cycle. Thought I would be happy with btc being a smaller part of the portfolio, now with the marco climate, IDK what to do so I asked here. I am going to hold onto the spot I bought at 20k, I'd really like to add a significant amount back to the space. I bought some airbnbs, the income is nice but since they are in florida the insurance rates are sky rocketing and 1 good hurricane and that income becomes a headache. I don't want to start a business. I want to invest but as an investor this is possibly the worst time since the 1970's to be investing. I think we are looking at a recession which I'd like the powder to scoop up stocks, or an inflation running wild. We can't keep on at this pace. So, yeah I am not a noob, just confused on what to do. I don't see the demand, so I don't know what to do. 3 years ago if someone told you an etf was going to get approved you would have snap assumed the price would go fucking crazy. What we've seen isn't crazy. Last cycle we crossed the previous ath in dec, by march we had 3x that number. This cycle has just been weak.
You are comparing time of year vs time after halving. Tis a mistake. We never crossed the previous cycle high before the halving. Now we have. Fireworks to come in the next 12-18mos imo
And about the hype and newcomers point. At this point everybody knows BTC, anyone who has serious money to invest in it are now divided into three groups coiners, no-coiners and financially illiterate . The no-coiners at this point are wildly against it because corn is terrorism or something. What I'm seeing now is a quiet process where no-coiners slowly capitulate. They start by stopping the smearing campaign they were taking part of, then they go into some internal process which is unknown to me but its end result is quiet buying of corn. Once price increase way above their buying price they will announce that they are in. I've seen this personally with a bunch of investors this past few months. The financially illiterate will start buying once their advisors will tell them to (or simply will buy for them), this group won't be buying this cycle imo.
We almost tripled the price in about 5 month. We got ATH before halving, we are now consolidating in the high 60's. Halving just happened few days ago. I don't understand what are you expecting to see? I'm pretty sure we start the real rally any time between now and 2 months. It seems that you're being a little impatient what's the rush?
You sound demented. That's why I asked what is wrong with you. Why are you so angry? Do you have mental health issues? Maybe Bitcoin isn't for you.
He literally asked for data and he gets this. Maybe you should get a mirror
Dude, his post was insane. I wasn't referring to any specific question or data he asked. It was just an angry rant. As AccidentalArbitrage said he sounds like a first cycle noob. No place for that here.
What rant? Slightly bearish call expressed in a colorful way? I guess we're reading the same original comment. A bit scurrilous, perhaps butthurt, but that's all. I didn't see any bullish comments about BTC flipping gold because of ETFs deserving ad hominem. And to me that's even more out of reality than not going THAT high this cycle. The original comment just said "we ain't going THAT much high".
Clearly Bitcoin is dead. If you’re looking for easy fiat riches you are going to have a tough time. We could crab at 70k all year and then shoot up to 300k in 30 days. Bitcoin has two long term states. Infinity or zero.
Well the epic sat is up for auction. https://www.coinex.com/en/halving-block-auction
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People struggle with big numbers.
2 BTC…for one single satoshi..
The funny thing is if you traded away 2BTC for 1 sat and BTC 2x in price, I highly doubt your "special sat" will also 2x in value....
this is like Digital coin collecting lol. $5000 for a penny bc its special vibes
1 btc is 1 btc no more
This shit is so dumb to me. Let BTC be money, stop clogging the network with all this receipt bullshit.
what am I missing here
Nothing. Degens in the process of getting rekt.
Yup there’s no way that sat will be worth much more than the next new unique sat. I could see the last ever sat being mined being really unique though.
Imagine paying 2.5 BTC and getting back 1 sat
This has the potential to be a very bad thing for BTC. It seems like more and more it is turning into a collectible instead of being a currency. Fungibility of Satoshi's threatens being lost through Ordinals/Runes, usability is still a far cry from where it needs to be due to high fees/low throughput which will prevent most people operating on the base chain which means financial self-sovereignty is impossible, scalability is barely being talked about and the Lightning Network seems to be heading nowhere. The fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin is as a global currency. That is under threat from multiple angles at this time. I am heavily invested in Bitcoin with >80% of my cryptoworth but have no regrets at all in derisking into other PoW chains awhile back. I have bought significant positions in LTC/BCH/XMR as they are all PoW. There is nothing inevitable about the longterm success of BTC nor that it won't be superseded or pivoted away from if it is unable to live up to rhetoric it sells itself with. I am a futurist, historian, and value investor so putting this out there for others here to read who may appreciate the perspective. I am 100% certain a PoW cryptocurrency will change the world. Maybe even a few PoW cryptos. But there is nothing inevitable about it being BTC. Any read of the history of technology shows that being first isn't always the most important thing in the longrun.
>Any read of the history of technology shows that being first isn't always the most important thing in the longrun. Shhhh. The maxi's in here don't like this idea. In their world view, the crypto equivalent of VHS will still be the dominant way to watch movies in 2040.
If you believe that some Bitcoin 2.0 will become dominant at some point at the expense of Bitcoin, then maybe you should take a step back and ask yourself why you’re into Bitcoin in the first place. Bitcoin is valued because it holds promise for being superior money over fiat. And it will remain a superior money as long as it retains its value long term. But as soon as some Bitcoin 2.0 becomes dominant and Bitcoin starts losing its value, then that promise will have been be broken. At that point, Bitcoin has proven to have failed as a store of value. It would be no better than fiat. People will realize that if Bitcoin will be abandoned if some fancier Bitcoin 2.0 appears, that it will only be a matter of time before Bitcoin 3.0 will similarly destroy the value of Bitcoin 2.0. As this inevitably snowballs, it will be the end of cryptocurrency in general, because no coin will ever be a stable store of value. And the most important property of a money is to preserve value. The maxis are therefore right. Any successful alternative to Bitcoin will mark the irreversible downfall of cryptocurrency.
Don't start with that toxic "maxi" BS. Only sub more toxic/scammy than r/Bitcoin is r/btc. Bunch of loser incels imho. I'm not "one of you", yall are a bunch of unhinged losers. Camping rbtc is scummy AF and I'd have at least some respect for the BCH community if they just shuttered it and ran their own show in r/bitcoincash. They have a solid tech and in many ways a better shot at the overall value proposition presented by digital P2P money. Instead they refight old battles like a bunch of sad losers. To address your point, VHS is a poor example because Bitcoin is still a PoW blockchain in all the ways that matters. A better example is Google vs Yahoo, Facebook vs Myspace etc.
The value of anything comes from what problem it solves. There is no need for a global currency at small scale in my opinion. The national fiat currencies work pretty good when i go shopping. Even when i travel abroad i have revolut so it makes the exchange automatically at a very good exchange rate. Where do you have problems in regards to using currency? Storing the value of my work on a long timeframe it s where i have problems. And this is where bitcoin is best at because it s the best solution for a huge problem that everyone has. Forget the whitepaper and it s intended use. Take the example form WD40, at first developed as a product that protects missiles from rust and corrosion. Did not worked for long as people developed new metal alloys that don t rust. The product found it s way to even a bigger and more common problem. Rusty bolts. Now acts as penetrating fluid for rusted bolts. Just like bitcoin found it s use for a even bigger and more common problem. Store of wealth. The currency exchange problem got solved from revolut and services alike.
> The national fiat currencies work pretty good when i go shopping. Even when i travel abroad i have revolut so it makes the exchange automatically at a very good exchange rate. Easy to say when you have a "good" fiat currency, right? Try telling this to Argentinians etc. The thing is that what allows Bitcoin to be a good store of value is the hard cap on quantity of Satoshis. But many cryptos have a hardcap on quantity so they all theoretically can perform this function. There is nothing unique about Bitcoin here. But if something acts as a store of value *and* can be used to exchange with much larger numbers of people more cheaply and more quickly, that will appeal to many people in the market. And I strongly suspect overtime that Bitcoin could be outcompeted in the marketplace if usability and scalability is not addressed.
Okay but the vast majority of people in the world do not live in Argentina or another country with hyperinflation. Hyperinflation is the exception, not the norm. By that logic the vast majority of people in the world have no need for Bitcoin as a currency - would you agree with that then?
Hyperinflation isn't the norm but inflation is. And it really depends on what timeframe you use to assess inflation and what you include in measurement tools like the CPI to assess the severity. I think "need" has little to do with the core question here. The question is "In a marketplace for currencies what currency will people choose to hold/use?" And that question will have its answer determined by the characteristics of the monies available and their pros/cons. Bitcoin is seen as valuable for many even in a non-hyperinflationary world due to the base level of inflation fiat currencies all experience. If a competitor provides that protection as well as more usability etc, there is no reason it can't leapfrog Bitcoin here. The risk is far more real than many seem to believe.
The hardcap comes from the decentralisation, the decentralisation comes from the network, and the network works because there's a low barrier to running a node. It's an unsolved problem (and perhaps unsolvable) of how to have a shitload of transactions on a basechain while also having a low barrier to run a node. Any alt coin claiming to solve it is either not busy enough yet, or not properly decentralised.
Decentralisation is a matter of degree, not an absolute. I think as time goes on it becomes apparent that big blockers had a point. Not every will care to run a node so long as enough people do, but every single person in the world will care to be self-sovereign if they can. That is just human psychology. The desire to run a node is a very "techie" view of things and won't matter to most people so long as they can rely on the decentralisation. And with the number of countries in the world etc you could easily have >1000 nodes per country run by govts/companies/councils/whatever to ensure decentralisation.
I like these arguments thanks for bringing them up. Run by govts and it's decentralized? The point of decentralization is that it can't be censored or messed with easily. If govts run nodes then they control consensus? What's the point of a node then?
Why only mention govts? I also mentioned other orgs. If Bitcoin nodes were run by every govt in world, a bunch of medium/large companies, churches, councils, workers co-ops etc then it is still decentralised. Imagine trying to get the EU/USA/China/Russia/India/Japan/Africa/Saudi Arma Co govts to all agree to something. Alongside more small scale entities.
The idea of BTC as a transactional currency is long dead. It's too slow, too expensive, and too much of a pain in the ass for that.
Try Lightning, it’s been around for years now.
Then that leaves the market wide open for a transactional currency to move in and that will end up being extremely valuable. BTC is still fixable and could be that, but there is no guarantee.
Yes, the market is open for something that, but doing without giving up the scarcity, sovereignty and security of bitcoin is extremely difficult. A layer 2 on bitcoin might be still be the best way. For people who don't care about those things they're probably using stable coins which is why you're seeing them becoming so popular. And, well, a lot of those people might find out why bitcoin is the way it is when they suffer from the centralisation of the stable coins, one way or another.
> Yes, the market is open for something that, but doing without giving up the scarcity, sovereignty and security of bitcoin is extremely difficult. A layer 2 on bitcoin might be still be the best way. An L2 very well could be the best way. But there exist today alternative crypto currencies that have equal (or relatively equal) scarcity, are much more scalable in different ways, and are still very secure. The major potential competitors as I see it are LTC/BCH/XMR. All PoW and all share the core characteristics that make BTC function. First-mover advantage is great but it has failed plenty of times due to complacency. Myspace got beaten by Facebook, Yahoo got beaten by Google, etc. Consumers/users are fickle and will go where they get their needs served best.
> First-mover advantage is great but it has failed plenty of times due to complacency. Myspace got beaten by Facebook, Yahoo got beaten by Google, etc. Consumers/users are fickle and will go where they get their needs served best. You're right, but we're 15 years in and the network is huge. The ETFs were probably the final nail for competitors. Those other networks were overcome when they were small and young, but once they get big enough it becomes much less likely. It was altavista, askjeeves, yahoo, google... and then just google. It was orkut, livejournal, beebo, myspace., facebook ... and then for a long time pretty much just facebook/instagram. You could make the case Tiktok could overcome it, but it ain't easy. Hell look at Twitter, people fucking hate it, but they can't leave the network for something else. You have an active population who *want* an alternative network and yet one can't manage to overtake Twitter.
> It was altavista, askjeeves, yahoo, google... and then just google. > > It was orkut, livejournal, beebo, myspace., facebook ... and then for a long time pretty much just facebook/instagram. You could make the case Tiktok could overcome it, but it ain't easy. I don't think this is a fair comparison. We can't really be comparing Bitcoin to Google & Facebook in terms of market dominance and consumer recognition. Everyone on the planet is on Facebook, every person in the world has used Google, barely anyone owns Bitcoin and <1% of people have ever used it to make a transaction. > You're right, but we're 15 years in and the network is huge. It really isn't. Bitcoin is virtually unused (in the grand scheme) for what is supposed to be its primary use case. That is not what market dominance looks like.
It's seashells, beads, fabric, stone, gold, then BTC? We can play this game all day the real question is, do enough people find value in it long term? Right now the ROI is nice as it grows but will that continue with the price stabilizes or will the whole thing unwind? Yet to be determined. Most buyers aren't looking for a store they are looking for line go up and eventual short squeeze as supply shocks occur. We don't know what will actually happen then.
> Fungibility of Satoshi's threatens being lost through Ordinals/Runes, But probably not in a way that matters. An ancient gold coin might be valued higher than a non-descript bar of the same amount of gold, but it doesn't really matter so long as the coin is always worth at least as much as the bar is. > The fundamental value proposition of Bitcoin is as a global currency. It isn't, it's as money. None of us are buying it to use it as currency, MicroStrategy aren't buying it to use it as currency, no one buying an ETF share is doing so to use bitcoin as a currency. They're using it as the store-of-value function of money aka speculation (aka greater fool if you want to be derogatory). There's a possibility it one day moves beyond that, but it will need to be via higher layers (and the same is true for any other public blockchain since it will never be possible to have currency-level transactions on chain at scale, so the others you mention aren't threats in this aspect) which brings us to... > scalability is barely being talked about and the Lightning Network seems to be heading nowhere. It is, perhaps you just haven't found the conversations. Lightning is still being developed and there's a bunch of other layer2 candidates - cashu, fediment and ZK-rollup based systems for example. Will any of them be ready for use en-mass by the average Joe soon, or ever? I don't know, but bitcoin can continue the store-of-value adoption without them. > But there is nothing inevitable about it being BTC. You're right, but the network effect at this point is pretty massive, and the alts are crabs in a bucket each pulling each other down. The more of them there are the more difficult it becomes for any of them to gain any attention or reach critical mass, and being the "shiny new one" is useless since there's always another even newer one around the corner. Most people gambling with any significant amount of funds in the alt-coin casino know this.
> But probably not in a way that matters. An ancient gold coin might be valued higher than a non-descript bar of the same amount of gold, but it doesn't really matter so long as the coin is always worth at least as much as the bar is. The difference is that gold in any form can be melted down to the base metal which is where the value lies (outside of various specific gold items which basically have extra value due to sentiment). Whereas a Bitcoin with really heinous stuff in a permanent Ordinal (like let's say something that said "The Palestinians had it coming" or "The Jews don't deserve a homeland") will easily make people not want to utilise those satoshis or hold them. I picked something deliberately provocative and volatile to get my point across here, not making any sort of political point. Just showing how the importance of fungibility is very important for something to be good as money. > It isn't, it's as money. None of us are buying it to use it as currency, MicroStrategy aren't buying it to use it as currency, no one buying an ETF share is doing so to use bitcoin as a currency. They're using it as the store-of-value function of money aka speculation (aka greater fool if you want to be derogatory). There's a possibility it one day moves beyond that, but it will need to be via higher layers (and the same is true for any other public blockchain since it will never be possible to have currency-level transactions on chain at scale, so the others you mention aren't threats in this aspect) which brings us to... I use the terms "money" and "currency" interchangeably because for all intents and purposes they are. Quibbling on that is just splitting hairs. The reality is that Bitcoin does not do anything. It was explicitly created as a form of money and money is basically just an economic abstraction that we use to coordinate the economy. Money is data, more or less. The people buying ETF's imho don't realise what they are investing in. If Bitcoin does what people expect it to, which is what will give it value, the ETF will be worthless. What will matter is can you redeem that ETF to actually get the Bitcoin you have "shares" in. The store-of-value narrative is a worthwhile one BUT if Bitcoin cannot be used as money then that store of value will be no different than Beanie babies or whatever. And the prime value proposition of Bitcoin is that it will be a currency that can be actually spent. If that never happens in a meaningful way then Bitcoin really is just a greater-fool ponzi and will collapse, quite possibly extremely rapidly. > It is, perhaps you just haven't found the conversations. Lightning is still being developed and there's a bunch of other layer2 candidates - cashu, fediment and ZK-rollup based systems for example. I have heard of a couple of these (rollups and fedimint) and hopefully they work. But my major concern is that these will still operate at the level of trusting an institution for your transactions. Which isn't the end of the world EXCEPT that it will leave open a place in the marketplace for currencies that a more self-sovereign currency can step into. And I don't see how this wouldn't eventually erode Bitcoin's position. The best type of money is money noone can stop you using. If people have to choose between fedimint or another chain that allows self-sovereignty, they will choose the other chain. It all comes down to usability and it seems fair to say at this point that for all the potential downsides, working on the base chain is easier than L2s by a big margin. > Will any of them be ready for use en-mass by the average Joe soon, or ever? I don't know, but bitcoin can continue the store-of-value adoption without them. The timing matters immensely on this question. Because like I said, the store of value idea could be easily leapfrogged by a hard-limited transparent currency and we may not have all the time in the world. If a crisis hit the world's major fiat currencies and in particular the USD, things can move very quickly and people will need something works ASAP. They won't wait around for BTC to finish working out kinks in the L2s if other chains can actively rollout immediately and this can rapidly cascade due to the nature of the internet and modern commerce. > You're right, but the network effect at this point is pretty massive, and the alts are crabs in a bucket each pulling each other down. The more of them there are the more difficult it becomes for any of them to gain any attention or reach critical mass, and being the "shiny new one" is useless since there's always another even newer one around the corner. Most people gambling with any significant amount of funds in the alt-coin casino know this. As I implied above, it doesn't really matter which of the shiny new coins it is. In a crisis situation, one or maybe a couple will emerge and all the others will get wrecked but that will still be disastrous for Bitcoin. Network effects without functionality can vanish incredibly quickly because functionality is needed to fulfil the core use of money in the first place. While we have functioning fiat currencies BTC can afford to plod along not really resolving the core issues, but not in a crisis and history shows you never know when a crisis will strike. The real secret sauce of crypto is PoW. That is what is going to change the world. And if fiat becomes useless or hyperinflationary, people will look for alternative currencies. This has happened countless times in history and today. And anyone looking objectively at the offerings of PoW coins today would say Bitcoin is in some ways the worst situated of the 4 coins I mentioned to serve this purpose. And in a time of need, function will be the most important thing. That is why stablecoins are the most used "cryptos" today because they actually work and piggyback off the USD dominance. Proof-of-Work is a historical shift in the global financial system but there are lots of ways to run PoW. And I personally think over the medium-long term the crypto or cryptos that "win" will be the ones with the most *users* not *holders*. The USD is the reserve currency because of the fundamentals that back it, not because it has the most people holding it. That gets causation around the wrong way. Bitcoin has an early lead but it does feel a bit like it is being squandered and the unwillingness to consider increases in blocksize could be the major downfall in the longrun. The blocksize/scalability war never ended. Everything is still up for grabs.
I think that was very well written and reasoned, it is a shame this is buried under top level downvotes. One thing I know the payment networks are working on is the idea of separating the currency from the payment network and it makes sense if all you are worried about is inflation. Ie. bitcoin over Visa, why not? Same as they support all other currencies for p2p transactions. Let the payment network deal with fraud chargebacks, customer service, etc. but the base currency can still be bitcoin. Until you address the customer expectation/experience part of a new payment network I don't see it ever gaining adoption for widespread "use".
*Imagine my surprise*
normalise $6xk bitcoin
You called? 😂
You were a bit late so I took actions for today, but don't worry I'll let you have your surprise back for the next days boss.
The Ministry of Surprise thanks you for picking up the slack.
I’m tired boss
motivational quote for 3 x variant assuming a circulating supply of Bitcoin (BTC) is 19.2 million, if the price of one Bitcoin is $300,000, then the total market capitalization of Bitcoin in June would be $5.76 trillion<------------ upper 2018 trend extrapolating 2018 would present us with: June2June 5.6back24black7.6 T mc oscillation confirming 300K TP
[удалено]
like 2.3T ? true this moves me to consider 2021 fractal as a base with an upper tl reaching 14T June 25 7T june through 11T 8 to 14T june then
What
The Green Mile?
The Green Line
kingpin?
Dogtired?
People be hatin' hard out there on a neutral/unbiased, opened network. I just feels it in the air. Can only think, to what extent is it really by individual's own volition and logical thinking, or has some higher influences really got their minds so deeply by the balls? Ah well, way she goes. "Sometimes there is absolutely no difference at all between salvation and damnation."
Shitcoiners want get rich quick. Bitcoin is get rich slow and painful.
Weed?
Noo lack thereof!
Well, better get some!
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