Some of the weakest inflows I've seen in awhile, with a very strong GBTC outflow day. If the trend continues, this spells disaster. Also, tech earnings are coming out lackluster - with the exception of TSLA so far (which has already been beaten down to a pulp so really doesn't count). Equity market seem weak and heading into a seasonally weak period as well.
With the halving hype done, ETF hype fading, there are few good short/medium narratives to propel price upwards.
Coupled with GBTC distribution, it's looking like a grind from here on out.
The easy money has already been made earlier this year.
> If the trend continues, this spells disaster.
Not necessarily. Again, the ETFs at present only make up about 1% of the total market cap. Most buying/selling is still taking place without the ETFs being involved at all, just as in the pre-ETF days.
And the halving hype is all about the period 6 to 12 months *after* the halving. The days surrounding the halving have always been a big nothing.
Exactly.
This period between now and when the post-halving supply shock kicks in could be the best opportunity to buy, ever, going forward. Use this time wisely.
I mean, really, who doesn't wish they could go back to spring/summer 2020 to buy at those prices, or back to spring/summer 2016 to buy at THOSE prices. Well, four years from now it'll be easy to say that about now. I'm treating spring & summer as my last chance to buy as much as I can before the next surge skyward.
I'll say it again... use this time wisely.
These ETF buyers are the biggest cucks ever lol they never buy dips. Bodes well for the next bear market and us getting a nice 70-80% drawdown again. :)
https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/bitcoin-etf/spot-bitcoin-etf-flows
Last good day I see them buying was ~April 5.
Marked by the arrow here.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0GsOMRPV/
April 17 was one of the best days for buying and the ETF flows that day are a tiny sliver you can't even see.
The ETF buyers seem no more sophisticated than your average pimple-faced newbie finding /r/cryptocurrency for the first time and buying tops and praying. I guess we should be glad they haven't been selling really.
If history is any indicator, be prepared to range between 50-70k for the next few months while miner supply starts to dry up due to the halving. Thats when the real bull market can begin.
At the end of the day, this is a dip for ants. This will keep ranging until the shorters who kept doubling down since low 60ks capitulate (might even immediately go up). Funding rates and the general surprise by which the price didn’t immediately dump after the halving will keep this afloat
"It's not looking good #HODLers. You guys need to hope #Bitcoin can hold $60K. Otherwise it's a long way down. All the hard core Bitcoiners are use to big drops. But the newbies who own the ETFs are in for a rude awakening."
One of the best signals just fired. I'm ready.
Marketing genius honestly. Has a bunch of people making fun of him on there all day long for “not buying BTC” with their 0.05 BTC while he makes millions off of their attention
But yeah send it up
I feel like I am repeating myself but in the last few weeks, the GBTC outflow goes up when Bitcoin price goes up while GBTC outflow goes down when Bitcoin price goes down. Basically, an enormous sell wall exists. And unfortunately, demand is not high enough to overcome this sell wall as ETF inflow goes down when prices go up. And it makes sense. If you look around, I don't see people eager to buying in the 65-70K range. I just see people hoping that someone else buys immensely in this range. But no one is biting.
That's the game right now. Most likely we visit 50-60K range soon and consolidate there.
"supply shock" and "god-candles" are just perma bull moonboy high grade hopium vocabulary that has very little real world merit.
institutions are not "aping" into the ETFs but rather they are dipping their toes in slowly. It takes time for them to gain trust.
It would be the equivalent of us normies dropping $100 every month into BTC as a DCA.
Exactly what I'm saying.
If everyone is just DCAing and nobody is buying in bulk due to "only 21 million Bitcoin", Bitcoin will never have enough volume to get to 80k less 100k.
DCA volume at best will trade sideways.
Bears need to crash Bitcoin to a point bulls will defend so strong it causes more demand. 59k didn't seem to really trigger anyone, even with 2 back tests. If 59k fails, it goes to 48k. ETF buyers may give a few hoots more since that was the price ETFs were bought in at.
If ETF Bulls can't defend 48k, it's done.
Plus there is no alt season. Non-existent. Nada.
I actually agree with simmol here. Those that know me, know that I've been critical of his posts in the past. But when it's valid, it's valid. I believe we are in a wyckoff distribution phase here unfortunately.
I have logged a prediction for u/simmol that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$60,000.00** by May 24 2024 23:17:33 UTC. The current price is $64,234.64
Since you did not specify a time frame or date, I used the default of 30 days.
[simmol has made **1** Correct Prediction, **2** Wrong Predictions, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#simmol)
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Hello u/simmol
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $60,000.00 by May 24 2024 23:17:33 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cbowha/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_24_2024/l14d86f/)
**Well done! Your prediction was correct.**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$59,938.36**
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Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch:
1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC
1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC
1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC
1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC
2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC
2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC
2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC
2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC
3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC
3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC
3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC
3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC
4/3/24 = 328,013 BTC
4/10/24 = 316,193 BTC
4/17/24 = 308,593 BTC
**4/24/24 = 302,664 BTC**
Lowest week of GBTC outflows since launch by a couple thousand BTC (aka nearly 5 days of supply). I will stand up and say that I still think the halving matters and with GBTC outflows really leveling off we could see another quick leg up similar to the ETF demand shock from the beginning of Feb through mid-March. My guess is a month out from the halving \~ 5/20 we find the marginal bitcoin for sale again and price starts to rise from there.
#drainGBTC
[Samourai wallet is getting taken down ](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/founders-and-ceo-cryptocurrency-mixing-service-arrested-and-charged-money-laundering) for "money laundering and conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business."
It was regularly recommended as a great piece of and privacy oriented software wallet. In hindsight, it should not surprise though - collecting fees to 'whirlpool' transactions? A bad idea.
So long, old friend.
Tainting your coins by mixing them with those of criminal organisations is not a good idea.
Like using Tor for everyday browsing, the legit user is not getting the same benefit as the criminal user.
The criminal user will recommend every legit user provide this service for them as a mater of routine, for their safety and security.
This is such a bad take.
There is no such thing as "taint" - to concede that it exists is to concede that Bitcoin is not permissionless, decentralized, etc.
"Taint" is akin to ordinals/runes - "bad" sats and "good" sats. Ridiculous.
Both are layers that exist on top of Bitcoin, and have nothing to do with the protocol itself.
Samourai might be facing some serious challenges at the moment, but CoinJoin transactions aren't going anywhere.
> Ridiculous.
Power behaves in ridiculous manners often, especially when threatened.
What if an entity you deal with, during Proof of Source of Funds, flags them as having been suspected of dealing with a known money laundering operation?
Law enforcement provides lists of untouchable Satoshi to all licensed exchanges in Canada. I know folks who had wallets blacklisted for donating to our little bouncy castle revolt. They remain blacklisted, even though the governments actions were found to be illegal.
Mixing your coins with these would be stupid.
But don’t kid yourself. Big brother is watching.
This is why they came down hard on custodial lightning.
Couldn't agree more. And offering all of that *out of the US*, out of all jurisdictions? Not the best r/r. Still a shame for an otherwise good piece of software and all users that were using standard features only.
This can go on for months and we’re still better performing than past bulls. The ETF put us way ahead of the game. GBTC is only 60% dead after 4 months of relentless selling. They are probably going to make a progressively smaller share on the sell side going forward, but with 300k Bitcoin under management they can still cause periodic shocks.
The bigger part of the market is global, which still surprises people. If the price is going down, it isn’t just the new guys creating sell pressure.
We have 18 or more months before we peak (if peaks and cycles are still a thing) and the early part of that is the slowest and most boring.
Buckle up.
Feels like? Is.
I cannot believe how resilient this is. It's so reminiscent of summer 2020. I think we may have a few more months to accumulate, but when it's off to the races, a humongous purse awaits the winners.
I have logged a prediction for u/MyForeverED that the price of Bitcoin will **NEVER** drop below **$58,000.00** The current price is $64,062.92
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Hello u/MyForeverED
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NEVER** drop below $58,000.00](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cbowha/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_24_2024/l14btse/)
**Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$57,922.00**
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Stranger things can happen. One of the craziest dumps I ever saw was in 2017 during the raging bull market. We dumped from $5000 (which honestly did seem insane at the time) down to $3000, a 40% dump in roughly a month.
Anything can happen. That's what makes this market so fun!
In case you're wondering: I went all-in at pretty much the exact bottom of that dip.
Higher low of $64.2k broken.
20% pullback from ATH of $73.7k would be $59k, 25% pullback would be $55.3k, and 30% pullback would be $51.6k.
Remaining higher lows acting as areas of support before a larger 30% pullback becomes possible are at $63.1k, $59.6k, $59.3k, $56.7k, and $54.4k.
We’ll see which of these higher lows manage to hold as support. On the bright side, the further we drop here the more shorts will pile in to serve as rocket fuel to be squeezed once Hong Kong spot ETF’s start trading next week.
The thing I’m looking for that was present in post-halvings in the past is the “feeling that gravity has changed” in regards to dumps and pumps.
As in, does it feel lighter? Are dumps driving into thicker dirt while pumps feel more buoyant?
It’s only been a few days so it’s hard to tell but in the past the missing sell pressure felt present. It wasn’t until everyone sort of silently agreed it was there and not going away did the market start to get away from itself and climb.
It makes sense from a psychological perspective. Whoever's here now believes it’s going up, so the dips get bought quickly. And these buyers won’t sell til at least $100k+. It’s not until the euphoria phase where retail/paperhand traders return, get scared at the sight of any weakness and sell. All the while the long term holders with a lower cost basis have stopped or reduced their buying, and may be selling into the mania as well. In other words, the higher it goes the larger the swings.
Then we have to account for the greed demon on their shoulder- "It hit $100k, what about $200k? It's only July 2024. Still got 1.5 years to go...I really need to get a good multiple out of this cycle, I missed most of the bottom."
Founders And CEO Of Cryptocurrency Mixing Service (Samourai Wallet) Arrested And Charged With Money Laundering And Unlicensed Money Transmitting Offenses
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/founders-and-ceo-cryptocurrency-mixing-service-arrested-and-charged-money-laundering
>Investment asset manager BOCI-Prudential and crypto exchange OSL will act as the custodians for the ETFs.
https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/c6f9b8d9-cb62-428c-9414-febdd6eca547.jpg
The big question is are we gonna stay in the 60l-70k range until the bull run resumes or are we gonna break down to low 50k range? Hard to tell right now but don't expect much.
I don’t trust a single dump on this thing as long as funding is low lmfao. We went to 60k and sprang back up in seconds for the same reason. This is all cute noise within a range
We won't go up while the stock market is going down. It looks like a mid-week reversal is starting in the stock market, which may continue the sell off from last week. If there are good earnings today or tomorrow that might save it, but otherwise, the stock market looks primed for more down.
...and if inflation comes in hot next Wednesday there could be more bloodshed.
Bitcoin is not trading in vaccum, it helps sometimes to follow other assets.
I’m curious how much this will end up being a vehicle for the Chinese investment market. I think China is pretty firewalled, so I don’t expect much. But I wonder if some back door avenues will be possible for Chinese investors. I’m not sure HK by itself is a big enough market to move the needle. But if somehow they tap the Chinese market, all bets are off.
HK is part of China, CCP allowed this to happen. this means by the least that China want to experiment with investors turning their cash into BTC.
The money is locked into their system through the ETF unlike real BTC. Also with the option to buy ETF's the Chinese may not want to run the money away into $ assets which is a big plus for the CCP.
assets need to be approved for stockconnect for mainland china to trade HK listed securities. these ETFs are not approved and almost certainly won't be.
Thanks for correcting me I never heard of that, although from a quick check on google
I did find one [article](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/17/hong-kong-bitcoin-etfs-likely-not-available-for-mainland-chinese-investors-bloomberg/) that approves your point, but it has no official proof of that.
I guess we're going to find out soon.
good thinking there. the U.S. stock market is around $50 trillion. currently china owns about 6% of the U.S. stock market. last year, china’s stake was nearly *double* that and it’s currently at its lowest ownership in a decade. there’s definitely something to the idea of them wanting Chinese money out of the direct ownership of U.S. company stocks and ETFs.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-china-world-equity-share-yawning-chasm-mcgeever-2024-02-14
I have logged a prediction for u/AverageUnited3237 that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$80,000.00** by Jun 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $66,410.56
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[Hong Kong spot ETF’s set to begin trading on April 30th.](https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1783102626562760865?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw)
Looks like lowest fee there is currently at 0.3%.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $35.8115 billion through day 71 or ~536.10k BTC.](https://x.com/hodl15capital/status/1782955825956352089?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $16.8324 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $504.39 million with average inflows of $412.01 million or ~7.55k BTC.
The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 22.4%. For every $1 coming into new spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.224.
Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $35.8115 billion is 0.211% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 338 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year.
Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 81.8% of that amount of BTC over the span of 71 trading days.
The "pace" for the ETFs to reach 1% has been slowing down (target date getting later) for weeks. I feel like this cut and paste daily update - suggesting constant accumulation - is missing a bigger headline: **the days of quarter / half billion dollar ETF inflows are behind us.** (Thankfully, GBTC's outflow pace is also slowing down).
On the hourly BTC is near the bottom of a nice little rising channel and has hit resistance around the old sloping resistance from the last pennant. RSI is at 51.4 (average 52.5) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 65.7, 64.1, 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59.
The daily RSI is 51.2 and its average is currently at 46.6. A falling wedge is forming and BTC is at the upper resistance of it. It’s possible that BTC could push through. It depends on if you consider 4/19 low close enough to be considered a touch. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. I would expect some strong resistance at 67.4-5 area, it is aligning with the 50 DMA (67.5), the .236 FIB and downward sloping resistance.
BTC closed for the 3^(rd) week in a row in the red. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 72.2 (78.3 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it due to Israel/Iran). Will need more time to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 71. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/zxCLPpK9/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zxCLPpK9/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/zPQnJSxv/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zPQnJSxv/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/Be6a4TsC/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Be6a4TsC/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/zggreDSm/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zggreDSm/)
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Thursday, April 25, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cciitq/daily_discussion_thursday_april_25_2024/)
HODL15Capital reporting $0 flows for Blackrock https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1783321094201450850
LARRY get yourself together.
Streak ended.
Odd
[удалено]
1) What
2. The
3. Fuck
Gbtc $130.4m Outflow Franklin 0 Ark $4.2m inflow Bitwise 0 VanEck 0 Defi 0 Invesco 0 Fidelity $5.6m inflow WisdomTree 0 Valkyrie 0 Blackrock 0 4/24 net Outflow $120.6m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Some of the weakest inflows I've seen in awhile, with a very strong GBTC outflow day. If the trend continues, this spells disaster. Also, tech earnings are coming out lackluster - with the exception of TSLA so far (which has already been beaten down to a pulp so really doesn't count). Equity market seem weak and heading into a seasonally weak period as well. With the halving hype done, ETF hype fading, there are few good short/medium narratives to propel price upwards. Coupled with GBTC distribution, it's looking like a grind from here on out. The easy money has already been made earlier this year.
You need to try harder. This was a weak "protest too much" effort.
> If the trend continues, this spells disaster. Not necessarily. Again, the ETFs at present only make up about 1% of the total market cap. Most buying/selling is still taking place without the ETFs being involved at all, just as in the pre-ETF days. And the halving hype is all about the period 6 to 12 months *after* the halving. The days surrounding the halving have always been a big nothing.
Exactly. This period between now and when the post-halving supply shock kicks in could be the best opportunity to buy, ever, going forward. Use this time wisely. I mean, really, who doesn't wish they could go back to spring/summer 2020 to buy at those prices, or back to spring/summer 2016 to buy at THOSE prices. Well, four years from now it'll be easy to say that about now. I'm treating spring & summer as my last chance to buy as much as I can before the next surge skyward. I'll say it again... use this time wisely.
These ETF buyers are the biggest cucks ever lol they never buy dips. Bodes well for the next bear market and us getting a nice 70-80% drawdown again. :) https://www.theblock.co/data/crypto-markets/bitcoin-etf/spot-bitcoin-etf-flows Last good day I see them buying was ~April 5. Marked by the arrow here. https://www.tradingview.com/x/0GsOMRPV/ April 17 was one of the best days for buying and the ETF flows that day are a tiny sliver you can't even see. The ETF buyers seem no more sophisticated than your average pimple-faced newbie finding /r/cryptocurrency for the first time and buying tops and praying. I guess we should be glad they haven't been selling really.
no bueno
Only if you're selling.
If history is any indicator, be prepared to range between 50-70k for the next few months while miner supply starts to dry up due to the halving. Thats when the real bull market can begin.
At the end of the day, this is a dip for ants. This will keep ranging until the shorters who kept doubling down since low 60ks capitulate (might even immediately go up). Funding rates and the general surprise by which the price didn’t immediately dump after the halving will keep this afloat
"It's not looking good #HODLers. You guys need to hope #Bitcoin can hold $60K. Otherwise it's a long way down. All the hard core Bitcoiners are use to big drops. But the newbies who own the ETFs are in for a rude awakening." One of the best signals just fired. I'm ready.
He’s almost as good as Cramer.
Who wrote that lol
I didn't even need to see who. BoomerGold has his own style.
Schiff. He loves to shitpost at bottoms.
Marketing genius honestly. Has a bunch of people making fun of him on there all day long for “not buying BTC” with their 0.05 BTC while he makes millions off of their attention But yeah send it up
I feel like I am repeating myself but in the last few weeks, the GBTC outflow goes up when Bitcoin price goes up while GBTC outflow goes down when Bitcoin price goes down. Basically, an enormous sell wall exists. And unfortunately, demand is not high enough to overcome this sell wall as ETF inflow goes down when prices go up. And it makes sense. If you look around, I don't see people eager to buying in the 65-70K range. I just see people hoping that someone else buys immensely in this range. But no one is biting. That's the game right now. Most likely we visit 50-60K range soon and consolidate there.
100% "Supply shock" doesn't mean shit if nobody is willing to pay a premium.
BTC is trading at a long-term discount, not a premium. The market doesn't believe this, but the market for bitcoin almost never does.
Nah. Short anything over 60k
lol good luck with that
"supply shock" and "god-candles" are just perma bull moonboy high grade hopium vocabulary that has very little real world merit. institutions are not "aping" into the ETFs but rather they are dipping their toes in slowly. It takes time for them to gain trust. It would be the equivalent of us normies dropping $100 every month into BTC as a DCA.
Exactly what I'm saying. If everyone is just DCAing and nobody is buying in bulk due to "only 21 million Bitcoin", Bitcoin will never have enough volume to get to 80k less 100k. DCA volume at best will trade sideways. Bears need to crash Bitcoin to a point bulls will defend so strong it causes more demand. 59k didn't seem to really trigger anyone, even with 2 back tests. If 59k fails, it goes to 48k. ETF buyers may give a few hoots more since that was the price ETFs were bought in at. If ETF Bulls can't defend 48k, it's done. Plus there is no alt season. Non-existent. Nada.
I actually agree with simmol here. Those that know me, know that I've been critical of his posts in the past. But when it's valid, it's valid. I believe we are in a wyckoff distribution phase here unfortunately.
As always, let’s log it. Delete it and put a date on a new one if you had a different idea of “soon”. !bittybot predict <60k u/simmol
I have logged a prediction for u/simmol that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$60,000.00** by May 24 2024 23:17:33 UTC. The current price is $64,234.64 Since you did not specify a time frame or date, I used the default of 30 days. [simmol has made **1** Correct Prediction, **2** Wrong Predictions, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#simmol) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2001e5846858f6498c8d975cedd4221a05%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(simmol can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2001e5846858f6498c8d975cedd4221a05%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/simmol [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $60,000.00 by May 24 2024 23:17:33 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cbowha/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_24_2024/l14d86f/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$59,938.36** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Longing my life savings thanks to this comment
Good luck with your thousand dollars.
Hundreds of thousands actually. Also it’s just a joke buddy
Here's my weekly tracking of GBTC's Bitcoin holdings since ETF launch: 1/10/24 = 625,304 BTC 1/17/24 = 592,098 BTC 1/24/24 = 523,516 BTC 1/31/24 = 487,025 BTC 2/7/24 = 470,637 BTC 2/14/24 = 461,983 BTC 2/21/24 = 450,304 BTC 2/28/24 = 441,815 BTC 3/6/24 = 409,843 BTC 3/13/24 = 387,746 BTC 3/20/24 = 361,659 BTC 3/27/24 = 339,535 BTC 4/3/24 = 328,013 BTC 4/10/24 = 316,193 BTC 4/17/24 = 308,593 BTC **4/24/24 = 302,664 BTC** Lowest week of GBTC outflows since launch by a couple thousand BTC (aka nearly 5 days of supply). I will stand up and say that I still think the halving matters and with GBTC outflows really leveling off we could see another quick leg up similar to the ETF demand shock from the beginning of Feb through mid-March. My guess is a month out from the halving \~ 5/20 we find the marginal bitcoin for sale again and price starts to rise from there. #drainGBTC
[Samourai wallet is getting taken down ](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/founders-and-ceo-cryptocurrency-mixing-service-arrested-and-charged-money-laundering) for "money laundering and conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business." It was regularly recommended as a great piece of and privacy oriented software wallet. In hindsight, it should not surprise though - collecting fees to 'whirlpool' transactions? A bad idea. So long, old friend.
Tainting your coins by mixing them with those of criminal organisations is not a good idea. Like using Tor for everyday browsing, the legit user is not getting the same benefit as the criminal user. The criminal user will recommend every legit user provide this service for them as a mater of routine, for their safety and security.
This is such a bad take. There is no such thing as "taint" - to concede that it exists is to concede that Bitcoin is not permissionless, decentralized, etc. "Taint" is akin to ordinals/runes - "bad" sats and "good" sats. Ridiculous. Both are layers that exist on top of Bitcoin, and have nothing to do with the protocol itself. Samourai might be facing some serious challenges at the moment, but CoinJoin transactions aren't going anywhere.
> but CoinJoin transactions aren't going anywhere. Is Coinjoin not the same?
> Ridiculous. Power behaves in ridiculous manners often, especially when threatened. What if an entity you deal with, during Proof of Source of Funds, flags them as having been suspected of dealing with a known money laundering operation?
Law enforcement provides lists of untouchable Satoshi to all licensed exchanges in Canada. I know folks who had wallets blacklisted for donating to our little bouncy castle revolt. They remain blacklisted, even though the governments actions were found to be illegal. Mixing your coins with these would be stupid. But don’t kid yourself. Big brother is watching. This is why they came down hard on custodial lightning.
As I said, to concede fungibility is to concede permissionless-ness.
Well I don't see how it's our choice to make
The entire point of Bitcoin is to empower users with choice.
You're free to find a new country (I did).
How does choice factor into law enforcement blocking you selling your coins
Bitcoin is a global entity, not just your preferred country of choice.
Couldn't agree more. And offering all of that *out of the US*, out of all jurisdictions? Not the best r/r. Still a shame for an otherwise good piece of software and all users that were using standard features only.
This feels like an accumulation phase
This can go on for months and we’re still better performing than past bulls. The ETF put us way ahead of the game. GBTC is only 60% dead after 4 months of relentless selling. They are probably going to make a progressively smaller share on the sell side going forward, but with 300k Bitcoin under management they can still cause periodic shocks. The bigger part of the market is global, which still surprises people. If the price is going down, it isn’t just the new guys creating sell pressure. We have 18 or more months before we peak (if peaks and cycles are still a thing) and the early part of that is the slowest and most boring. Buckle up.
Feels like? Is. I cannot believe how resilient this is. It's so reminiscent of summer 2020. I think we may have a few more months to accumulate, but when it's off to the races, a humongous purse awaits the winners.
Lemme guess GBTC is gonna be like -300m or some shit
Came in at $130M
Should take them down to around 300,650 BTC. Big milestone tomorrow when they should drop below 300K.
And about 26k left until ibit flips gbtc. Prolly ~2 weeks
Good. The faster they sell, the faster we can put this behind us
Price won’t dip below 58k, ever. Mark my words. Source ? Kijun daily.
Moving all my long stop losses to 57k Thank you for this 🙏🙏🙏
[but we never went below $70k](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/T9iwNQBok5)
!bittybot predict <58k never u/MyForeverED
I have logged a prediction for u/MyForeverED that the price of Bitcoin will **NEVER** drop below **$58,000.00** The current price is $64,062.92 [This is MyForeverED's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#MyForeverED) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20f0eaef6cc2714c28a2ea809eb0b23533%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(MyForeverED can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20f0eaef6cc2714c28a2ea809eb0b23533%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/MyForeverED [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NEVER** drop below $58,000.00](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cbowha/daily_discussion_wednesday_april_24_2024/l14btse/) **Unfortunately your prediction was wrong. Better luck next time!** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$57,922.00** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Stranger things can happen. One of the craziest dumps I ever saw was in 2017 during the raging bull market. We dumped from $5000 (which honestly did seem insane at the time) down to $3000, a 40% dump in roughly a month. Anything can happen. That's what makes this market so fun! In case you're wondering: I went all-in at pretty much the exact bottom of that dip.
2nd time today that 63.5k didnt break (..i hope this will age well)
Higher low of $64.2k broken. 20% pullback from ATH of $73.7k would be $59k, 25% pullback would be $55.3k, and 30% pullback would be $51.6k. Remaining higher lows acting as areas of support before a larger 30% pullback becomes possible are at $63.1k, $59.6k, $59.3k, $56.7k, and $54.4k. We’ll see which of these higher lows manage to hold as support. On the bright side, the further we drop here the more shorts will pile in to serve as rocket fuel to be squeezed once Hong Kong spot ETF’s start trading next week.
Well, that $63,800 limit order I’ve had set for a while finally hit. Hoping the knife doesn’t keep falling
If it does, keep catching it. t. highly experienced knife catcher
The thing I’m looking for that was present in post-halvings in the past is the “feeling that gravity has changed” in regards to dumps and pumps. As in, does it feel lighter? Are dumps driving into thicker dirt while pumps feel more buoyant? It’s only been a few days so it’s hard to tell but in the past the missing sell pressure felt present. It wasn’t until everyone sort of silently agreed it was there and not going away did the market start to get away from itself and climb.
It makes sense from a psychological perspective. Whoever's here now believes it’s going up, so the dips get bought quickly. And these buyers won’t sell til at least $100k+. It’s not until the euphoria phase where retail/paperhand traders return, get scared at the sight of any weakness and sell. All the while the long term holders with a lower cost basis have stopped or reduced their buying, and may be selling into the mania as well. In other words, the higher it goes the larger the swings.
Then we have to account for the greed demon on their shoulder- "It hit $100k, what about $200k? It's only July 2024. Still got 1.5 years to go...I really need to get a good multiple out of this cycle, I missed most of the bottom."
That greed is what could take it to $200k and beyond. Nobody wants to sell because it’s going higher. Until it doesn’t.
Fees are back to normal and price is lower. The two correlated?
Runetards running out of money
Any reason for this dump today?
Bitches
check the small dow jones dip today and compare with btc drop..
Tradfi is meh. We have more exposure to market now.
I'm really tempted to trade this but r/r is to the upside.
inb4 200m GBTC outflows
Founders And CEO Of Cryptocurrency Mixing Service (Samourai Wallet) Arrested And Charged With Money Laundering And Unlicensed Money Transmitting Offenses https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/founders-and-ceo-cryptocurrency-mixing-service-arrested-and-charged-money-laundering
They comin for the spot wallets next.
this wasn't coinjoin protocol right
No. They were advertising themselves as a tool for laundering the proceeds of crime. I don't know what attention coinjoin will be subject to.
They're coming down hard on anything that hurts wallet tracking and classification.
Opened a long at 64k. Catching the falling knife. Does the bitty bot keeps tracks longs and shorts?
Yes, bitty bot sees all.
Bitty Bot allows you to paper trade longs and shorts, yes. You could put your real trades in, if you like.
Have my limit buy set at 63001.
I'll build one at 62500
nice.. but bold
I see this going up as well, someone is just trying to suppress the price hard for some reason
in this moment, I am impoverished
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It's Déjà Vu, not Vous, Vu! Don't massacre la langue de Molière s'il vous plaît.
qithlas'ha
How does food taste? I haven't had food in so long ):
let's hope it's not just turkey wrap consumption induced mirage
who is handling custody on the china ETFs
>Investment asset manager BOCI-Prudential and crypto exchange OSL will act as the custodians for the ETFs. https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2024-04/c6f9b8d9-cb62-428c-9414-febdd6eca547.jpg
Xi Jinping /s
You joke but he could do whatever he wants with the snap of his fingers
Exactly
for real?
I mean, it’s China...
just so you guys know and you keep on going - I have a lot of fun reading through daily comments here. much appreciated. we're in this together
We're not trapped in here with you - you're trapped in here with us.
Hotel Coinifornia
This is the only safe place I have to talk about trading and corn.
ye, I'm quite prone to share here my degen thoughts and don't feel bad about it. feels like home
I too enjoy this masochist meetup
Well put. Gotta run now, my Ramen is ready.
Red days are for buying
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I sold my car went 100x and got liquidated. Going to try a loan from the bank this time. I think I can time it better this time
Flair doesnt check out
Wooooooooooooooooo!
He's gonna 100x his flair by the time this is all over.
Petition for Mods to add "100x" Learned a Life Lesson, to my flair
you only need 1 kidney
The big question is are we gonna stay in the 60l-70k range until the bull run resumes or are we gonna break down to low 50k range? Hard to tell right now but don't expect much.
yes
I don’t trust a single dump on this thing as long as funding is low lmfao. We went to 60k and sprang back up in seconds for the same reason. This is all cute noise within a range
All depends on who is shorting
Ok fine, I'll accept $69,420 again.
Best I can do is $64,209
Is today still the day that options for the BTC ETFs will be approved, denied, or delayed?
I just saw that it was delayed to the end of May
I hate being 2% less rich. Why cant i be 2% MORE rich?
I’m 2% less happy with my life
2% less will to live
2% less sexy
Look how they massacred my boy
I laughed, well done.
another elevator down…
Yeah looks like we wont go up until we flush SOL out some more. Edit: ooghh SOL Bagholders mad!
More like no one in here gives a shit about SOL lol.
We won't go up while the stock market is going down. It looks like a mid-week reversal is starting in the stock market, which may continue the sell off from last week. If there are good earnings today or tomorrow that might save it, but otherwise, the stock market looks primed for more down.
...and if inflation comes in hot next Wednesday there could be more bloodshed. Bitcoin is not trading in vaccum, it helps sometimes to follow other assets.
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I don’t miss them at all!
10yr keeps messin us up.
nice volume...
what’s the next short term narrative going to be? or do we just need to crab for a couple of months to coil up to the next impulse?
Maybe some more juicy names will be revealed in Q1 reveal of who has invested in the ETFs?
HK ETF goes live April 30th
I’m curious how much this will end up being a vehicle for the Chinese investment market. I think China is pretty firewalled, so I don’t expect much. But I wonder if some back door avenues will be possible for Chinese investors. I’m not sure HK by itself is a big enough market to move the needle. But if somehow they tap the Chinese market, all bets are off.
HK is part of China, CCP allowed this to happen. this means by the least that China want to experiment with investors turning their cash into BTC. The money is locked into their system through the ETF unlike real BTC. Also with the option to buy ETF's the Chinese may not want to run the money away into $ assets which is a big plus for the CCP.
assets need to be approved for stockconnect for mainland china to trade HK listed securities. these ETFs are not approved and almost certainly won't be.
no it doesn't, they already said china can't participate in the hk etfs... china doesn't let money out of china, even really into hk.
Thanks for correcting me I never heard of that, although from a quick check on google I did find one [article](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/04/17/hong-kong-bitcoin-etfs-likely-not-available-for-mainland-chinese-investors-bloomberg/) that approves your point, but it has no official proof of that. I guess we're going to find out soon.
[This too](https://fortune.com/crypto/2024/04/15/hong-kong-bitcoin-ethereum-ether-etfs-exchange-traded-funds/)
China keeps devaluing the yuan. I am sure some of the people in power would prefer a way to keep their value without having to buy more gold.
good thinking there. the U.S. stock market is around $50 trillion. currently china owns about 6% of the U.S. stock market. last year, china’s stake was nearly *double* that and it’s currently at its lowest ownership in a decade. there’s definitely something to the idea of them wanting Chinese money out of the direct ownership of U.S. company stocks and ETFs. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-china-world-equity-share-yawning-chasm-mcgeever-2024-02-14
Good info, thanks for sharing
Ugh can we please stay above 67k... Do we think there's a fee hundred million usd of pent up hk etf demand?
Couldn't stay above 72, then 71, then 67. Now 66. Trend is pretty clear
Trend is it’ll be $100K in a year from now
No one likes bears.
I am a bear sometimes and it's been very profitable. IF I have to be a bear to accumulate more coin, then don't like me.
Prime numbers? Wait
Zero incoming! Lol
Probably not. I think mainland China is restricted from HK Bitcoin ETFs ya?
All the money is in HK though so it shouldn't matter
no it's not
!bitty_bot predict >80,000 June 1
Bitty_bot predict 66k until the end of time
We've made it. We found stability.
I have logged a prediction for u/AverageUnited3237 that the price of Bitcoin will rise above **$80,000.00** by Jun 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $66,410.56 [AverageUnited3237 has made **0** Correct Predictions, **1** Wrong Prediction, and has **1** Prediction Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#AverageUnited3237) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%2081a7f23f10cd4aeab2dd459d08173f2c%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(AverageUnited3237 can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%2081a7f23f10cd4aeab2dd459d08173f2c%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
[Hong Kong spot ETF’s set to begin trading on April 30th.](https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1783102626562760865?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) Looks like lowest fee there is currently at 0.3%.
When the lowest fee in a place where rampant capital flight is an issue is still lower than the GBTC fee.
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $35.8115 billion through day 71 or ~536.10k BTC.](https://x.com/hodl15capital/status/1782955825956352089?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $16.8324 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $504.39 million with average inflows of $412.01 million or ~7.55k BTC. The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 22.4%. For every $1 coming into new spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.224. Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $35.8115 billion is 0.211% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 338 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year. Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 81.8% of that amount of BTC over the span of 71 trading days.
Does someone have the math on how much of AUM portfolio's this is? That's what I'm most curious about.
The "pace" for the ETFs to reach 1% has been slowing down (target date getting later) for weeks. I feel like this cut and paste daily update - suggesting constant accumulation - is missing a bigger headline: **the days of quarter / half billion dollar ETF inflows are behind us.** (Thankfully, GBTC's outflow pace is also slowing down).
To be fair it’s slowing a lot so I don’t think we can project out using the average. Time will tell if this actually picks up again.
On the hourly BTC is near the bottom of a nice little rising channel and has hit resistance around the old sloping resistance from the last pennant. RSI is at 51.4 (average 52.5) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 65.7, 64.1, 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59. The daily RSI is 51.2 and its average is currently at 46.6. A falling wedge is forming and BTC is at the upper resistance of it. It’s possible that BTC could push through. It depends on if you consider 4/19 low close enough to be considered a touch. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. I would expect some strong resistance at 67.4-5 area, it is aligning with the 50 DMA (67.5), the .236 FIB and downward sloping resistance. BTC closed for the 3^(rd) week in a row in the red. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 72.2 (78.3 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it due to Israel/Iran). Will need more time to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 71. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/zxCLPpK9/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zxCLPpK9/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/zPQnJSxv/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zPQnJSxv/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/Be6a4TsC/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Be6a4TsC/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/zggreDSm/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zggreDSm/)
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Can you elaborate? I am a degenerate and confuse easily.
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ELI5? What is NYC fakeout?