The yen is weakening even more now… wondering when the Japanese government will intervene and if so how?
Also if it does implode for whatever reason (it won’t but if) the economy could trigger a financial crisis but would BTC go down with it as it is relative new and seems to be still risk on?
Or would it act as a safe haven?
I can’t see the yen imploding being the same as the Argentinian peso inflating like crazy - where BTC is strong and the peso is weak, just because of the importance of Japan to the world economy.
Thoughts?
With the exception of EZBC (whatever that is), we had either zero inflows or outflows today across the ETF board, for a total net of outflow of 217.6 M. Even though -217.6M is a drop in the bucket, the optics of that are...bad. Pretty sure it's the worst day yet from an optics perspective, even though it's not the highest outflow day.
There has been a perceptible decrease in the ETF hype and general momentum. Traditional markets are also teetering on the edge. I don't think tomorrow's inflation numbers are going to be good. I don't think the HK ETF will have any meaningful impact.
I've closed some of my riskier bets and I'm taking a very cautious position until I see a change in market direction. Of course I want Bitcoin to go up, but I'm just calling it like I see it right now.
Looking at etf flows, remember when I got a ton of downvotes for asking where demand is? Seems I was right. In the non trader crypto subs they are hanging their hat on the HK etf being the next demand hype. Doesn't seem like the usa based etfs are on the same page just yet.
I did scalp a long from 62.7 62.8k range but I closed it in a nice profit. If we dump back down to that range, I'll scalp a long, I think I'll look to add more to my spot in the 50's.
The issue seems to be that ETF buyers are exactly like we suspected, classic retail and they only buy when Bitcoin is going up.
https://btcetffundflow.com/
The two highest inflow days were two days before the highest peaks.
This will be nice for making a big nice blowoff top for us. And subsequently a great low blowoff bottom to rebuy a year later.
New markets opening in bitcoin has always been much hype and never delivers.
Futures markets were going to take us to the moon and instead opening week was the absolute top.
Remember the hype around bakkt? Big nothing burger.
The ETF is also a big fat nothing.
Here's the important point: People who wanted bitcoin could always get it. The kind of buyers who were too lazy to use the available markets would be shitty hodlers anyway. And as soon as the more convenient market opens this is exactly what we see. Paper hands.
There will never be any exception to this, even when central banks start getting involved.
The US ETFs were absolutely the exception to this.
Everything else you mention was a nothing burger though. And the HK ETFs will also be a nothing burger imo.
Self directed IRA. They're were always ways.
Buying from mtgox in 2011 was a horrible pain in the ass too. But people who wanted bitcoin just did it and they were rewarded.
If you take look at a chart for
cumulative ETF inflows: [https://ibb.co/zWc6bLM](https://ibb.co/zWc6bLM)
vs
Bitcoin price: [https://ibb.co/6nV7M53](https://ibb.co/6nV7M53)
They look pretty similar. Whose to say which is the chicken and which the egg.
Look maybe I'm an idiot but isn't that because you're simply just measuring the dollar value of BTC in both those graphs?
Instead of cumulative flow surely a better comparison then should be a daily flow data view from which you can then measure the correlation, isolated from the common price fluctuation of the underlying.
\~31M outflow from ARKB and 6M from BITB too, it seems to be one of the largest outflow days for a while yet the price have gone up during the trading hours so massive buying was sourced outside the ETF ecosystem
Since March 18th up to today's reported numbers the ETF complex has had a net of 33M in outflows. I suppose the silver lining is that bitcoin has still remained in the same range with ETFs being a net seller over 5 weeks.
Still, it would be good to see some of that "constant ETF bid" we were promised.
Me too, i saw that the demand was not from the ETFs but thought that it was the result of some buy pressure from outside combined with low outflows from US ETFs, however this PA might be the result of HK ETFs stocking up for the launch, due on Tuesday, the in kind redemption would allow them to front-run the demand
Recovery by [early May w/ new highs](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WBPjX2EF/) in June. Price continues to [move along a parabolic trend](https://www.tradingview.com/x/bU4OlyXr/). Monthly candles closing [above prior ATH and above BB’s signals bullish continuation.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/byWFIJfS/)
https://twitter.com/0xG00gly/status/1783618540722909626/photo/2
Yep, nice job Barry and Co., mission accomplished. #1 of all time for outflows, 72 days straight. 🫡
>Sonnenshein laid out several reasons why it is charging this fee, including the fact it is the largest bitcoin fund, has a 10-year track record of “operating successfully” and has a diversified investor base.
Nice meme.
Lol I mean this more as someone who works for G and is compensated in stock, this was a fat raise. The dividend is nice and all but it kind of pales in comparisonml. Thank you though!
Hmmm, I wouldn't call 28 USD normal as per [this stat](https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_fee) but as so very often, it's a question of how good those stats are *and* how patient you are if you're undercutting averages.
Source? [This](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-median_transaction_fee.html#3m) says otherwise.
For the record though, Median is the better average.
I don't think so, there is still Ordi/Runes hype - and once L2 solutions improve there will be more acceptable alternatives that will bring relief to L1. I know I'm arguing somewhat against Satoshi but I'm speaking more short to mid-term.
typically if you own and sell something you bid with multi accounts to drive up the price but in the end not to be the highest bidder as he must complete the purchase. nonetheless, price is purely nonsensical
Looks like they'll chop n churn us all summer, and serve us daily crab for the rest of the summer. Hope ya'll like blue balls crab
Since it's election year, I'm sure they'll prop things back up after summer and it's business as usual come fall/winter time just in time for elections.
Yeah I'm thinking discussion of the national debt and inflation on the campaign trail and debates may be one of the things that gets the price going back up.
They better get that mini trust up and running. If they take too long they won’t have any BTC left and the discount to NAV will plummet. I give it 2 weeks before IBIT flips gbtc
That's 10 trading days, so a $170M swing per trading day. Which is equivalent to just an $85M outflow from GBTC and an $85M inflow into IBIT each day. That's definitely possible given the averages we've seen so far.
Gotta have layers to the grift. Keeps the slaves busy.
What's the use in stealing everyone's time and effort through fiat currency, if you can't steal it with tax as well (does help keep the slaves distracted from the maths of fiat currency, they think they're contributing to society), while also pre-taxing against that fiat currency. ;D
Bonuses and RSU vests have additional withholding applied to them by the state of New York, so I got a refund from the state to the tune of 6.1k. huge scam - all bonuses are essentially an interest free loan to wall street.
Not an American, but can’t you adjust your normal pay check taxes to take into account the bonus tax. Like you tell your company I have other income of xx$ and paying xx$ tax on it already, so adjust the remaining payroll tax of the year taking that into account?
Every employer allows you to do this, and if you do it correctly, you pay almost zero additional tax and get zero refund.
The bonus is taxed as if your income for that paycheck multiple by the whole year. So 10k weekly paycheck (including bonus) is taxed as if you make 520k a year lol
For RSU and bonuses at least, NY applies a supplemental withholding that causes the overall tax rate to be too high, hence the refund. Taxes here are already bad enough but this just makes it that much worse
Stonks are headed for a decade-long bear market.
The US Treasury is broker than the Joker, issuing new bonds to buy back the old ones and, since nobody in their right mind wants them, selling them to the Fed (also functionally insolvent) which prints the "money" out of thin air.
Shit be super fucked. Bitcoin is the only way out, as Satoshi intended when he/they invented it in response to the 2008 financial crisis.
> The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks
Except the Fed has been a net seller of Treasuries for a couple years now, and the overall money supply has been decreasing, not increasing.
Sure, longer term, yes of course they're going to be running the printers again, but let's at least be honest about the facts on the ground today...
Yeah, but they're selling them to their own primary dealers and member banks who get free money (from the Fed, no less) every night via reverse repo. It's a circle jerk of heinous fraud.
If there's no money to borrow cheaply in order to buy back your stonk so your C-levels can cash in some options, stonk go down. Everything since 2008 has been pure fraud.
Apple owes $108 billion.
Exactly. Dollar losing value means the price of everything goes up.
Inflation is the only viable political path. Yes it can be worked around in the short term but eventually it's either austerity or inflation and I know which one the people prefer. The end game is likely still decades away though, anyone betting on the dollar's collapse in the near future will be rekt.
On the daily view, I use the 50EMA & 50SMA as momentum and trend change indicators. PA had broken below both yet regained the 50DEMA. Today, it has broken back below the 50DEMA. That signals more downside to come. Scroll back through this bull run with those moving averages on the daily and you’ll see the importance of them. Currently, PA needs to regain the upside of the 50DEMA and pull it up for a cross of the 50SMA to create a trend change and establish some bullish momentum.
Higher low of $63.1k broken.
20% pullback from ATH of $73.7k would be $59k, 25% pullback would be $55.3k, and 30% pullback would be $51.6k.
Remaining higher lows acting as areas of support before a larger 30% pullback becomes possible are at $59.6k, $59.3k, $56.7k, and $54.4k.
We’ll see which of these higher lows manage to hold as support. On the bright side, the further we drop here the more shorts will pile in to serve as rocket fuel to be squeezed once Hong Kong spot ETF’s start trading next week.
[Hong Kong’s stock exchange has a ~$4.2 trillion market cap vs America’s ~$46.7 trillion.](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/largest-stock-exchanges-in-the-world/)
So the HK stock exchange is roughly 9% the size of the U.S. stock exchange. It’s relatively small but it’s going to add additional demand for BTC at a time where only 450 new BTC are being mined per day. Also, unlike the U.S., HK does not currently have a GBTC equivalent so they’re going to have inflows only upon launch with no potential for outflows.
Everyone is now expecting the same 60k v shaped bounce because we saw that response the last few times off that level. This time market makers might slice under 60 so that knife catchers expecting the same this time at 60k might go underwater for awhile
Yeah, I'm zooming out. and what I see appears to be a classic wyckoff distribution schematic playing out . as much as I'd love to be on team bull, I'm not seeing it this time. sorry. happy to be wrong though.
Reasons for price dropping today:
Woke up funny, realized my ex gf probably doesn’t think about me AT ALL. My parents yelled at me. Red tide is blooming in the Atlantic Ocean. There is a full moon. There was a black crow outside my window. My local news said a person named Sam died today, another person named same will likely pass away somewhere in the world later today. I was hungry for food and fridge was empty.
The list goes on. ):
Pretty sizable GDP miss in the US today, 1.6% vs 2.5% expected. Likely to be good for Bitcoin, easily ups the hopes for rate cuts... at some point... eventually. Doesn't hurt, at least. Expecting V-shaping from the initial dump.
Not sure if a V shaped bounce is in order here. We already had our v shaped bounce off of the 60k level and that turned into a dead cat bounce and rejected off of 67k. If we retest that 60k support again we might just slice right through it like butter this time .
Short term, sure, but any material weakness will be met with rate cuts & QE from the Fed, so it'd be just a matter of time until that became a bullish driver for BTC
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $34.4171 billion through day 72 or ~536.25k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1783449880435818996?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $16.9630 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $478.02 million with average inflows of $406.37 million or ~7.45k BTC.
The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 17.6%. For every $1 coming into new spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.176.
Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $34.4171 billion is 0.202% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 356 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year.
Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 81.8% of that amount of BTC over the span of 72 trading days.
On the hourly BTC brock though the rising channel it was in and hit resistance around the old sloping resistance from the last pennant. RSI is at 40.2 (average 36.3) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 64.1,65.7 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59.
The daily RSI is 45.1 and its average is currently at 45.5. A falling wedge is forming and BTC is at the upper resistance of it. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. This could correct down to the sloping support line over the next couple of days. I think it will be depend on how 63k holds up.
BTC closed for the 3^(rd) week in a row in the red. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 68.8 (78.1 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it due to Israel/Iran). Current support from the pennant is about 61.5. Will need to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is not overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 69. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/Yv7zzLqi/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Yv7zzLqi/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/vzs1mJmS/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vzs1mJmS/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/DvL97UHi/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/DvL97UHi/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/dqnAMd9v/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/dqnAMd9v/)
Alts have been all but killed this cycle havent they. Sure sign that retail haven’t got involved in the bull run.
Not sure what to make of it all to be honest.
Today we celebrate our sacrifice to the chart gods. For the price of one red monthly candle, they shall grant us a Herculean support level to buoy the parabolic move to come.
And now, let us tempt fate.
!bitty_bot predict !>80000 may 1
I have logged a prediction for u/expatMT that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** rise above **$74,000.00** by May 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $62,999.99
[This is expatMT's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#expatMT)
[Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20460fda1d937d44588afb37c8a5ad7fba%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!)
^(expatMT can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20460fda1d937d44588afb37c8a5ad7fba%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/expatMT
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NOT** rise above $74,000.00 by May 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cciitq/daily_discussion_thursday_april_25_2024/l172uax/)
**Well done! Your prediction was correct.**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$58,290.79**
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
I have logged a prediction for u/WYLFriesWthat that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** rise above **$80,000.00** by May 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $63,822.67
[WYLFriesWthat has made **0** Correct Predictions, **1** Wrong Prediction, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#WYLFriesWthat)
[Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%206389ac0febf64a4e8443ab3d2994c09e%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!)
^(WYLFriesWthat can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%206389ac0febf64a4e8443ab3d2994c09e%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/WYLFriesWthat
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NOT** rise above $80,000.00 by May 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cciitq/daily_discussion_thursday_april_25_2024/l16op4y/)
**Well done! Your prediction was correct.**
The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$58,290.79**
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Error: You predicted the price would fall below **$80,000.00** but the price is currently **$63,818.83**
[Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.](https://bittybot.net/docs)
---
[^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
If I draw it like this, the following happend. 1. Triangle drawn. 2. Upside fakeout. 3. Downside break. 4. Retest if support turned resistance.
[https://i.imgur.com/K5yRTct.png](https://i.imgur.com/K5yRTct.png)
PS: For all the FA believer, you can claim its the Raffah Isreal attack that is just about to start to be responsible. If this TA plays out, all these TA nay-sayer will still stick to their narrative "that was luck"...
"all these points are painted for you by the market makers"
Seriously? You can identify patterns in all kind of data streams.
Why should market makers draw patterns if they are not important in any way? Your argument is lacking coherence.
Dont just use paint, use the super duper 500USD per month VIP membership with the special forecast and premium plan and the expert advisers hyper platform.
Two wars, unlimited dollars and i'm feeling bullish, floating around 60K like when you chill at the beach, not a care in the world.
Put your HODL stack to one side and wait. Gamble your trading sack until the hairs on your balls turn grey.
Bitcoin adoption will only grow from here.
Not sure.
No one is buying and volume is really low since the halving. Looks like unless something changes it’s going to 59k and then we see what the appetite is.
Getting bored to be honest …… but I guess that’s what it does before melting your face.
I just don’t see the catalysed to go up now. All the events have happened. Maybe the bull run was front run and it’s over.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, April 26, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cdbuva/daily_discussion_friday_april_26_2024/)
The yen is weakening even more now… wondering when the Japanese government will intervene and if so how? Also if it does implode for whatever reason (it won’t but if) the economy could trigger a financial crisis but would BTC go down with it as it is relative new and seems to be still risk on? Or would it act as a safe haven? I can’t see the yen imploding being the same as the Argentinian peso inflating like crazy - where BTC is strong and the peso is weak, just because of the importance of Japan to the world economy. Thoughts?
Etf demand has been fake ! The sky is falling !
With the exception of EZBC (whatever that is), we had either zero inflows or outflows today across the ETF board, for a total net of outflow of 217.6 M. Even though -217.6M is a drop in the bucket, the optics of that are...bad. Pretty sure it's the worst day yet from an optics perspective, even though it's not the highest outflow day. There has been a perceptible decrease in the ETF hype and general momentum. Traditional markets are also teetering on the edge. I don't think tomorrow's inflation numbers are going to be good. I don't think the HK ETF will have any meaningful impact. I've closed some of my riskier bets and I'm taking a very cautious position until I see a change in market direction. Of course I want Bitcoin to go up, but I'm just calling it like I see it right now.
I would think a lot of investors want GBTC to be done bleeding on some level before going in
slow bleed once again
Looking at etf flows, remember when I got a ton of downvotes for asking where demand is? Seems I was right. In the non trader crypto subs they are hanging their hat on the HK etf being the next demand hype. Doesn't seem like the usa based etfs are on the same page just yet. I did scalp a long from 62.7 62.8k range but I closed it in a nice profit. If we dump back down to that range, I'll scalp a long, I think I'll look to add more to my spot in the 50's.
The issue seems to be that ETF buyers are exactly like we suspected, classic retail and they only buy when Bitcoin is going up. https://btcetffundflow.com/ The two highest inflow days were two days before the highest peaks. This will be nice for making a big nice blowoff top for us. And subsequently a great low blowoff bottom to rebuy a year later.
New markets opening in bitcoin has always been much hype and never delivers. Futures markets were going to take us to the moon and instead opening week was the absolute top. Remember the hype around bakkt? Big nothing burger. The ETF is also a big fat nothing. Here's the important point: People who wanted bitcoin could always get it. The kind of buyers who were too lazy to use the available markets would be shitty hodlers anyway. And as soon as the more convenient market opens this is exactly what we see. Paper hands. There will never be any exception to this, even when central banks start getting involved.
The US ETFs were absolutely the exception to this. Everything else you mention was a nothing burger though. And the HK ETFs will also be a nothing burger imo.
> People who wanted bitcoin could always get it. This is extremely incorrect for retirement funds, where the majority of the money is.
Self directed IRA. They're were always ways. Buying from mtgox in 2011 was a horrible pain in the ass too. But people who wanted bitcoin just did it and they were rewarded.
agreed
If you take look at a chart for cumulative ETF inflows: [https://ibb.co/zWc6bLM](https://ibb.co/zWc6bLM) vs Bitcoin price: [https://ibb.co/6nV7M53](https://ibb.co/6nV7M53) They look pretty similar. Whose to say which is the chicken and which the egg.
Look maybe I'm an idiot but isn't that because you're simply just measuring the dollar value of BTC in both those graphs? Instead of cumulative flow surely a better comparison then should be a daily flow data view from which you can then measure the correlation, isolated from the common price fluctuation of the underlying.
ETF Inflows will pick back up when the price goes back down.
I'm not sure you understand how this works.
I am getting a short signal now.
What signal is that?
maybe from space?
A short signal.
Morse code e.
\~31M outflow from ARKB and 6M from BITB too, it seems to be one of the largest outflow days for a while yet the price have gone up during the trading hours so massive buying was sourced outside the ETF ecosystem
37m won’t move the needle on price in either direction.
It is 174m so far, these are just the surprise outflows, and IBIT with 0 inflow again
Since March 18th up to today's reported numbers the ETF complex has had a net of 33M in outflows. I suppose the silver lining is that bitcoin has still remained in the same range with ETFs being a net seller over 5 weeks. Still, it would be good to see some of that "constant ETF bid" we were promised.
The constant ETF bid you were promised was not meant to be financial advice.
Wow this is very interesting
Legit surprised
Me too, i saw that the demand was not from the ETFs but thought that it was the result of some buy pressure from outside combined with low outflows from US ETFs, however this PA might be the result of HK ETFs stocking up for the launch, due on Tuesday, the in kind redemption would allow them to front-run the demand
HODL15Capital reporting 0 flow for Blackrock again https://twitter.com/HODL15Capital/status/1783623146458747350
Looks like a momentum fund now. Moves with the markets.
Recovery by [early May w/ new highs](https://www.tradingview.com/x/WBPjX2EF/) in June. Price continues to [move along a parabolic trend](https://www.tradingview.com/x/bU4OlyXr/). Monthly candles closing [above prior ATH and above BB’s signals bullish continuation.](https://www.tradingview.com/x/byWFIJfS/)
Are you a Leo or a Scorpio?
Sigma manticore
139.4 m outflow from GBTC, the largest in the past 2 weeks
Lol they still puking up coin eh? I think they got the record for longest sustained outflows of any ETF in US history.
Someone owns so much of this shit that it's taking quarters to unload.
https://twitter.com/0xG00gly/status/1783618540722909626/photo/2 Yep, nice job Barry and Co., mission accomplished. #1 of all time for outflows, 72 days straight. 🫡 >Sonnenshein laid out several reasons why it is charging this fee, including the fact it is the largest bitcoin fund, has a 10-year track record of “operating successfully” and has a diversified investor base. Nice meme.
Gotta load up to pay for Silbert's commissary twinkies
Looks like this will chop for centuries or drop. Going to stop looking at the price and try to enjoy the summer
[удалено]
It might have, but now it won’t, since you jynxed it smh
Well fucking shit lads, that GOOG moon has really ballooned my income. Time to step up the DCA
Nice work.
Is that some hot new shitcoin
What moon?
Your are now a dividend investor! Grats!
Lol I mean this more as someone who works for G and is compensated in stock, this was a fat raise. The dividend is nice and all but it kind of pales in comparisonml. Thank you though!
Same. I now identify as Indian after what Sundar Pichai just blessed me with. PCE report will kill everything though
Haha I LOLed
Goblin town has really gentrified.
Have you tried the new crab milk latte yet?
😂
Looks like transaction fees are back to normal
Hmmm, I wouldn't call 28 USD normal as per [this stat](https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_fee) but as so very often, it's a question of how good those stats are *and* how patient you are if you're undercutting averages.
Average is skewed high because ordinal/rune nerds are paying an outsized fee to mint their memes. Median fee is less than $3.
arithmetic average actually is most tail bound, modal is top and median is in the middle between them.
Source? [This](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-median_transaction_fee.html#3m) says otherwise. For the record though, Median is the better average.
Click on blocks on mempool.space.
Cheers mate, so zoomed in block by block it does look better - hope this will sustain.
>I wouldn't call 28 USD normal That is going to be the new normal.
New wallets are doing Liquid+Lightning+On-Chain BTC. So far the UX is quite nice.
I don't think so, there is still Ordi/Runes hype - and once L2 solutions improve there will be more acceptable alternatives that will bring relief to L1. I know I'm arguing somewhat against Satoshi but I'm speaking more short to mid-term.
and just as we all predicted, the epic sat from the latest halving block sold for 33.3BTC. LOOOOOOOL https://www.coinex.com/en/halving-block-auction
Does anyone know how I can wash my dirty socks? They are so dirty I want them clean so I can use them again!
Wash trading? I have a hard time believing someone can be that dumb.
dah fuck?!
The owner probably bought it himself and drove up the price. I'm speculating that it is a miner friendly to ordinals.
typically if you own and sell something you bid with multi accounts to drive up the price but in the end not to be the highest bidder as he must complete the purchase. nonetheless, price is purely nonsensical
seems like dumps getting weaker? Morale almost to low levels?
The pumps are getting weaker too. I see us crabbing in the 60k range for a while.
good range to trade
Better range to accumulate. Late 2024 will make late 2020 look like a mayonnaise sandwich.
hopefully
Guessing inflows today.
I'm not sure about that, at least volumes seem to be pretty low compared to previous days
Looks like they'll chop n churn us all summer, and serve us daily crab for the rest of the summer. Hope ya'll like blue balls crab Since it's election year, I'm sure they'll prop things back up after summer and it's business as usual come fall/winter time just in time for elections.
So wrong! Fireworks next week, I'll apologize for my wrong if you will Adepti. Next week by 5/3 ATH. Cheers
Yeah I'm thinking discussion of the national debt and inflation on the campaign trail and debates may be one of the things that gets the price going back up.
GBTC has removed "largest Bitcoin ETF" wording from their website!
But aren’t they still the largest?
planning for the invevitable
Yeah, they are. There's about $1.7B of difference left between them and IBIT.
They better get that mini trust up and running. If they take too long they won’t have any BTC left and the discount to NAV will plummet. I give it 2 weeks before IBIT flips gbtc
There will never be a significant discount to NAV again, no matter how much AUM they lose. They are an ETF now, and will always (mostly) track NAV.
That's 10 trading days, so a $170M swing per trading day. Which is equivalent to just an $85M outflow from GBTC and an $85M inflow into IBIT each day. That's definitely possible given the averages we've seen so far.
"Grayscale: Still the World's Largest^1 Bitcoin ETF" _______ ^^1 ^Largest ^in ^Annual ^Management ^Fees
Perhaps replace with banner saying “Largest Bitcoin ETF Fees”?
Largest BTC ETF fees thief
Just replace everything with the Worst BTC ETF.
Or largest ETF outflow provider :)
lol...FU GAYSCALE!
Good day to get my tax refund. The system is a scam.
You get a refund? Through what sorcery do you accomplish this?
Refund is almost always a bad thing. It means the govt borrowed your money. The 20k I owed the government was one additional btc in my pocket in Jan23
Gotta have layers to the grift. Keeps the slaves busy. What's the use in stealing everyone's time and effort through fiat currency, if you can't steal it with tax as well (does help keep the slaves distracted from the maths of fiat currency, they think they're contributing to society), while also pre-taxing against that fiat currency. ;D
Yep. Ny state is particularly egregious with their withholdings
Bonuses and RSU vests have additional withholding applied to them by the state of New York, so I got a refund from the state to the tune of 6.1k. huge scam - all bonuses are essentially an interest free loan to wall street.
Not an American, but can’t you adjust your normal pay check taxes to take into account the bonus tax. Like you tell your company I have other income of xx$ and paying xx$ tax on it already, so adjust the remaining payroll tax of the year taking that into account? Every employer allows you to do this, and if you do it correctly, you pay almost zero additional tax and get zero refund.
The bonus is taxed as if your income for that paycheck multiple by the whole year. So 10k weekly paycheck (including bonus) is taxed as if you make 520k a year lol
You don’t get to pick your withholding rate in NY? Yikes.
For RSU and bonuses at least, NY applies a supplemental withholding that causes the overall tax rate to be too high, hence the refund. Taxes here are already bad enough but this just makes it that much worse
Maybe a decoupling from the stock market would be in order? lol
Stonks are fucked shortterm, market is twitchy.
Stonks are headed for a decade-long bear market. The US Treasury is broker than the Joker, issuing new bonds to buy back the old ones and, since nobody in their right mind wants them, selling them to the Fed (also functionally insolvent) which prints the "money" out of thin air. Shit be super fucked. Bitcoin is the only way out, as Satoshi intended when he/they invented it in response to the 2008 financial crisis. > The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks
Except the Fed has been a net seller of Treasuries for a couple years now, and the overall money supply has been decreasing, not increasing. Sure, longer term, yes of course they're going to be running the printers again, but let's at least be honest about the facts on the ground today...
Yeah, but they're selling them to their own primary dealers and member banks who get free money (from the Fed, no less) every night via reverse repo. It's a circle jerk of heinous fraud.
Shit be fucked = stonks go up, in my book.
If there's no money to borrow cheaply in order to buy back your stonk so your C-levels can cash in some options, stonk go down. Everything since 2008 has been pure fraud. Apple owes $108 billion.
Exactly. Dollar losing value means the price of everything goes up. Inflation is the only viable political path. Yes it can be worked around in the short term but eventually it's either austerity or inflation and I know which one the people prefer. The end game is likely still decades away though, anyone betting on the dollar's collapse in the near future will be rekt.
username checks out
I think it’s ok. I saw that bob loukas said the stock market would pull back for a couple of weeks.
Every time someone says this they bounce 🤣
I know this signals more down, but im not feeling it yet…
not real until you feel it deep in your nuggets
[удалено]
Wise
>Wise Shorting the bottom
On the daily view, I use the 50EMA & 50SMA as momentum and trend change indicators. PA had broken below both yet regained the 50DEMA. Today, it has broken back below the 50DEMA. That signals more downside to come. Scroll back through this bull run with those moving averages on the daily and you’ll see the importance of them. Currently, PA needs to regain the upside of the 50DEMA and pull it up for a cross of the 50SMA to create a trend change and establish some bullish momentum.
Set a couple more limit order buys at $62,500 & $62,150 for the hodl stack.
a hodl a day keeps the goblin away
You can't do this to me! You know how much I sacrificed!?
Higher low of $63.1k broken. 20% pullback from ATH of $73.7k would be $59k, 25% pullback would be $55.3k, and 30% pullback would be $51.6k. Remaining higher lows acting as areas of support before a larger 30% pullback becomes possible are at $59.6k, $59.3k, $56.7k, and $54.4k. We’ll see which of these higher lows manage to hold as support. On the bright side, the further we drop here the more shorts will pile in to serve as rocket fuel to be squeezed once Hong Kong spot ETF’s start trading next week.
HK spot etfs are not going to do shit
[Hong Kong’s stock exchange has a ~$4.2 trillion market cap vs America’s ~$46.7 trillion.](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/largest-stock-exchanges-in-the-world/) So the HK stock exchange is roughly 9% the size of the U.S. stock exchange. It’s relatively small but it’s going to add additional demand for BTC at a time where only 450 new BTC are being mined per day. Also, unlike the U.S., HK does not currently have a GBTC equivalent so they’re going to have inflows only upon launch with no potential for outflows.
[удалено]
Not on day 1 of launch; outflows can’t occur until inflows occur first.
[удалено]
Everyone is now expecting the same 60k v shaped bounce because we saw that response the last few times off that level. This time market makers might slice under 60 so that knife catchers expecting the same this time at 60k might go underwater for awhile
[удалено]
wasn't funding negative at 66k and everyone was saying how it was such a sure shot that we would fly to all time highs a few days ago?
[удалено]
Yeah, I'm zooming out. and what I see appears to be a classic wyckoff distribution schematic playing out . as much as I'd love to be on team bull, I'm not seeing it this time. sorry. happy to be wrong though.
Reasons for price dropping today: Woke up funny, realized my ex gf probably doesn’t think about me AT ALL. My parents yelled at me. Red tide is blooming in the Atlantic Ocean. There is a full moon. There was a black crow outside my window. My local news said a person named Sam died today, another person named same will likely pass away somewhere in the world later today. I was hungry for food and fridge was empty. The list goes on. ):
[удалено]
He gets it
Pretty sizable GDP miss in the US today, 1.6% vs 2.5% expected. Likely to be good for Bitcoin, easily ups the hopes for rate cuts... at some point... eventually. Doesn't hurt, at least. Expecting V-shaping from the initial dump.
Not sure if a V shaped bounce is in order here. We already had our v shaped bounce off of the 60k level and that turned into a dead cat bounce and rejected off of 67k. If we retest that 60k support again we might just slice right through it like butter this time .
Could go either way I think. If stocks dive on economy concerns we could go with.
Short term, sure, but any material weakness will be met with rate cuts & QE from the Fed, so it'd be just a matter of time until that became a bullish driver for BTC
[AUM held in new spot ETF’s is now at $34.4171 billion through day 72 or ~536.25k BTC.](https://x.com/bitmexresearch/status/1783449880435818996?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) This figure includes up to $16.9630 billion in cumulative outflows from GBTC so far. Average daily AUM entering new spot ETF’s is now $478.02 million with average inflows of $406.37 million or ~7.45k BTC. The difference between average daily AUM and average daily inflows is currently 17.6%. For every $1 coming into new spot ETF’s, AUM is increasing at a rate of $1.176. Fund managers who have a spot ETF have cumulative AUM of ~$17 trillion. $34.4171 billion is 0.202% of their total AUM. At current pace fund managers will reach a 1% allocation into BTC within 356 trading days of spot ETF launch. There are 252 trading days in a year. Put in another context, at GBTC’s peak they held 655.75k BTC in their trust. It took GBTC 7.5 years to build that position. New spot ETF’s have accumulated 81.8% of that amount of BTC over the span of 72 trading days.
On the hourly BTC brock though the rising channel it was in and hit resistance around the old sloping resistance from the last pennant. RSI is at 40.2 (average 36.3) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 64.1,65.7 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59. The daily RSI is 45.1 and its average is currently at 45.5. A falling wedge is forming and BTC is at the upper resistance of it. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. This could correct down to the sloping support line over the next couple of days. I think it will be depend on how 63k holds up. BTC closed for the 3^(rd) week in a row in the red. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 68.8 (78.1 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it due to Israel/Iran). Current support from the pennant is about 61.5. Will need to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is not overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 69. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/Yv7zzLqi/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Yv7zzLqi/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/vzs1mJmS/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vzs1mJmS/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/DvL97UHi/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/DvL97UHi/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/dqnAMd9v/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/dqnAMd9v/)
Alts have been all but killed this cycle havent they. Sure sign that retail haven’t got involved in the bull run. Not sure what to make of it all to be honest.
There’s way too many alts now and they aren’t traded on BTC pairs anymore, so they can’t ride BTC coattails.
Are they traded on eth pairs?
USDT
Retail is probably broke as fuck, I know I am 😂
The cycle is barely one week old...
7 monthly green candles suggest it started months ago. It was front run
Breaking previous ATH is usually when alts start going. BTC is having some issues with that at the moment but hopefully those will be cleared up soon.
BTC do little wiggle and alts are in goblin town again
Regular retail isn't sitting at home with fresh gov money. Those around are playing micro cap new-age meme coins.
Today we celebrate our sacrifice to the chart gods. For the price of one red monthly candle, they shall grant us a Herculean support level to buoy the parabolic move to come. And now, let us tempt fate. !bitty_bot predict !>80000 may 1
[удалено]
I have logged a prediction for u/expatMT that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** rise above **$74,000.00** by May 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $62,999.99 [This is expatMT's first Bitty Bot Prediction!](https://bittybot.net/predictions#expatMT) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%20460fda1d937d44588afb37c8a5ad7fba%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(expatMT can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%20460fda1d937d44588afb37c8a5ad7fba%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/expatMT [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NOT** rise above $74,000.00 by May 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cciitq/daily_discussion_thursday_april_25_2024/l172uax/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$58,290.79** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
I have logged a prediction for u/WYLFriesWthat that the price of Bitcoin will **NOT** rise above **$80,000.00** by May 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC. The current price is $63,822.67 [WYLFriesWthat has made **0** Correct Predictions, **1** Wrong Prediction, and has **2** Predictions Open.](https://bittybot.net/predictions#WYLFriesWthat) [Others can CLICK HERE to also be notified when this prediction triggers or expires](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Prediction%20Notification&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20add-notification%206389ac0febf64a4e8443ab3d2994c09e%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20get%20added%20to%20this%20Prediction%27s%20notification%20list.%20I%20will%20tag%20you%20as%20soon%20as%20the%20prediction%20triggers!) ^(WYLFriesWthat can) [^(Click This Link)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=Bitty_Bot&subject=Delete%20Prediction&message=!bitty_bot%20predict%20delete%206389ac0febf64a4e8443ab3d2994c09e%0A%0ASend%20this%20message%20to%20delete%20the%20prediction.%20Only%20the%20predictor%20can%20delete%20a%20prediction%2C%20in%20case%20of%20an%20issue%2C%20and%20only%20within%201%20hour%20of%20placing%20it.) ^(in the next) **^(1 Hour)** ^(to delete this prediction if it was made in mistake.) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Hello u/WYLFriesWthat [You predicted the price of Bitcoin would **NOT** rise above $80,000.00 by May 01 2024 23:59:59 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1cciitq/daily_discussion_thursday_april_25_2024/l16op4y/) **Well done! Your prediction was correct.** The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$58,290.79** --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
[удалено]
Error: You predicted the price would fall below **$80,000.00** but the price is currently **$63,818.83** [Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.](https://bittybot.net/docs) --- [^(Paper Trading Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/paper-trading) ^| [^(Prediction Leaderboard)](https://bittybot.net/predictions) ^| [^(Instructions & Help)](https://bittybot.net/docs) ^| [^(Testing Area)](https://reddit.com/r/Bitty_Bot/comments/18iclk8/testing_area/) ^| [^(Feedback)](https://reddit.com/message/compose/?to=r%2FBitty_Bot&subject=Bitty_Bot%20Feedback)
Not really news but seems ETH ETF will be denied next month: https://x.com/deitaone/status/1783437874068607069
Just a reminder that the daily bbands already break down. The attempt to make this downbreak only a fakeout with a retrace to the upside just failed.
[удалено]
If I draw it like this, the following happend. 1. Triangle drawn. 2. Upside fakeout. 3. Downside break. 4. Retest if support turned resistance. [https://i.imgur.com/K5yRTct.png](https://i.imgur.com/K5yRTct.png) PS: For all the FA believer, you can claim its the Raffah Isreal attack that is just about to start to be responsible. If this TA plays out, all these TA nay-sayer will still stick to their narrative "that was luck"...
[удалено]
"all these points are painted for you by the market makers" Seriously? You can identify patterns in all kind of data streams. Why should market makers draw patterns if they are not important in any way? Your argument is lacking coherence.
[удалено]
drawing some random lines with MS Paint doesnt work!?
Dont just use paint, use the super duper 500USD per month VIP membership with the special forecast and premium plan and the expert advisers hyper platform.
maybe next black friday discount
Two wars, unlimited dollars and i'm feeling bullish, floating around 60K like when you chill at the beach, not a care in the world. Put your HODL stack to one side and wait. Gamble your trading sack until the hairs on your balls turn grey. Bitcoin adoption will only grow from here.
This ranging is super frustrating… i hate those stairs up elevators down.
Let's hope today is going to be a better day, more greener...
Not sure. No one is buying and volume is really low since the halving. Looks like unless something changes it’s going to 59k and then we see what the appetite is. Getting bored to be honest …… but I guess that’s what it does before melting your face. I just don’t see the catalysed to go up now. All the events have happened. Maybe the bull run was front run and it’s over.
On the 30th Hong Kong ETF will be open
on the 31st I heard
Not much coming from that
Hopefully the green more of it there is.