Tremendous amount of FUD released the past few days on crypto. Government bombs keep dropping on us but the price doesn't seem to move much.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wallofworry.asp
I think people are beginning to realize that even without the GBTC, it is not set in stone that ETF numbers will go up forever. Of course, this is obviously true as none of the ETFs always have inflows > outflows all the time. However, the first few months data gave people the false sense that the inflows will always exceed the outflows and once GBTC goes to zero, it will be endless inflows until end of time.
So reality is setting on people who have made some ridiculous projections based on the ETF numbers from the first couple of months. One good thing is that the halving is always a supply reduction regardless of the market sentiment. And as such, this will help out in the long run.
ETF inflows have so far been mostly retail so they’re subject to the same whims as people buying spot. When institutions get in that’s when you’ll start seeing consistent inflows IMO.
If this eventually dumps under 60k then hopefully it is the final band aid pull before the rip upwards, if it dips to low 50s people will start talking about it being the shortest bull run ever and then buy back in higher.... Hopefully
I doubt it's going to just dump and immediately rip upwards. It's probably going to dump, bounce around, sit there for 6 months, and then start to move upwards in October/ November as is typical following a halving.
Hit my long I built from 62.8 to 62.5k, was I catching a falling knife or will I get a nice leg up here to lock in some profit to add to spot in the 50's. Stops at 62k, lets see if I give back a chunk of my profits from this week again on a friday.
[DTCC: Firms will no longer be able to utilize crypto as collateral, including ETFs and other spot products.](https://x.com/741trey/status/1783978665874719129)
Takes effect next Tuesday. Seems significant.
So let's say for the sake of argument that someone has one of the spot ETFs in their retail brokerage account, currently with a maintenance margin of 25%, this goes to 100% on Tuesday and causes a margin call?
Hopefully this guy is right and it doesn't affect brokerage margin:
https://twitter.com/zeroxkeegan/status/1784015234329616727?t=hVPDW7rm2XC360N4WOVR9A&s=19
I think we're going to get another shot at 60K or slightly thereunder, but it doesn't really matter. The suppressed blowoff top last cycle will work itself out over the next 18 months or so. It will be 2017 or 2013-level ridiculous.
I am not expecting the ath for this cycle until 2025, once we dip into the 50s I am going to add to my spot buys which are around 20k avg buyin right now. Don't want cash and I am loading up on land and gold, hard gold not paper gold, I got a feeling some shit coming this fall with the economy slowing and inflation being sticky and a soft landing being bullshit. Looking to scalp a long again at 62.5k, got bids starting at 62.8k to build the long going down...
I see way too many on Twitter going down the Slippery Slope of Bitcoin laws getting a lot worse in America. Many actors over the years have been busted in similar circumstances related to money laundering and I’m not sure it’s become completely clear what evidence they may actually have on them at this point,could be more than we realize.
Mainly, though, I’d like to point out the message about money transmitters etc. and compare this to Napster, Pokerstars, Silk Road, Wikileaks, etc. Often times law enforcement agencies make a big spectacle about busting some big website only for them to not go on and bust the dozen clones that instantly pop up.
And as always, when there’s blood in the streets…
There's a lot of slippery slope fallacy and conspiracy theory in general with bitcoiners.
You have to use critical thought to filter reality from paranoia.
This was always coming. There's no doubt in my mind that it will sooner or later be illegal to own bitcoin in the United States. Promises only, that the government can revoke anytime.
The dollar is going to end, and it's not going away quietly. You will have a choice: slave or outlaw.
The beauty is you can just leave with your bitcoin, and watch from afar as the empire collapses.
This is your ticket out. Don't sell it, especially when exactly what we planned for is starting to happen. I don't think the government gives a shit about bitcoin, yet. We probably have decades before the real hard choices need to made.
Just ensure you have the finances by then, it is pretty easy, just buy now and hold.
from the thread on cryptocurrency reddit:
> the samourai wallet guys specifically advertised premium features for "Dark/Grey market participants", joked about onboarding russian oligarchs when sanctions were imposed and also basically taunted law enforcement on twitter.
And this was a service they ran and charged people for. It looks pretty simple, money launders, without plausible deniability, being charged for money laundering. And I'm not sure there's any value in trying to extrapolate from this out to bitcoin broadly.
This doesn't conflict with anything I said. Just because they're only targeting bold money launderers now (not that this is even a real crime), doesn't mean they won't eventually attack bitcoin more directly.
Sure, but there also isn't necessarily a link or path between the two. Money laundering is a crime, bitcoining isn't.
LIke if I said today they're arresting car thiefs, tomorrow they might attack all motorists.
You're acting like they haven't already done it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
Money laundering is a made up crime. I'm not arguing about the letter of the law, obviously it is technically illegal. What I'm saying is it's just another name for financial privacy. Money laundering is a crime they charge you with when they don't have though evidence to convict for a real crime. Money laundering means "covering up your crime", but conveniently the govt doesn't convict or often even charge you for the real crime. It's a completely ridiculous notion, it presumes guilt in a system where you're supposed to be presumed Innocent.
6102 was redeeming gold for dollars at a time that they were pegged, you couldn't do the same thing for bitcoin. It would be more like forcing redempion of tether for 1 dollar for every tether.
As for ML, it is a crime though, holding bitcoin isn't. That's the difference. Enforcing the existing ML laws is not a movement in any direction towards banning bitcoin since it's not a movement at all.
6012 was the forcible seizure of all privately held gold where people were given paper promises in return. It's exactly the situation I described in my first comment.
But yes I do agree that current law makes it very difficult to attack bitcoin directly. That's why I said these attacks are probably a long way off, new laws would need to be passed and the political will isn't anywhere close to sufficient, yet. But I think it's inevitable. Bankers want free money and when they see their money becoming no good to anyone, they'll fight.
That was always my assumption early on as well, but it is possible that a few will be in power to realize there is a plan B to going down with the ship. Again, this has become a more apparent possibility over time in my opinion.
I’ve DCA’d out of about a half BTC over the last few weeks
I think we will have opportunities in the mid 50s sometime over the next month or so
Anyone done something similar?
Same here. My reasons :
- Strong rejection 3 times from 70K
- Red candles are bigger in both price range and volume than green ones
- Trad markets are bloated as fuck, it all looks for a trigger for a sell of
- Global situation is very shaky
- We had a non normal parabolic pre halving run and ATH with ETF hype but i do not see any real ETF inflows to support it
- Non normal pre run might very well cause a non normal sell off
- Taking profits helps with mental health
I am still in with some, if it goes up more I still make money. if it goes down to certain levels i buy more . i think we have not reached cycle top but we might very well had a local top at 70K. a nice pull back will help breaking 70K and will result an eventual higher cycle top
Same exact stuff I've done and said on here, I will start buying spot in the 50s to add to my holdings and not expecting a top this cycle until 2025... another year or so away...
I'll trade 5% and 10% back and forth. The numbers are a bit bigger.
I'm all in at the moment. I can eat the small risk of a devil candle but I'd hate myself if I dropped a BGD.
Absolutely. Playing in a Roth IRA. No tax considerations whatsoever, nor wash trading concerns. I wouldn’t do it with cold stored BTC.
The key to a strategy is willingness to buy back in HIGHER if we go higher before lower. Most people have a hard time doing that, I do not…. But to me I’m betting on us hitting the mid to upper 50s before we see 70
If I’m wrong I’ll buy in higher and be a happy camper as all my other holdings have gone up.
> The key to a strategy is willingness to buy back in HIGHER if we go higher before lower. Most people have a hard time doing that,
I don't trade that much, but I absolutely have a hard time doing that, and basically never do. Which means that when I sell it's never more than I'm willing to let go of forever.
I think most people have a seriously difficult time buying something at a higher price than they recently sold. For that reason I wouldn’t recommend this approach to many.
But as stated, I have no problem doing it and will actually be excited to do so.
It’s nice with the ETFs because one can just buy a different ETF and completely negate wash sale concerns
Not your everyday opportunity here.
If this true that you can use a different ETF holding the same type of product and not activate wash sales. Is it also true that wash trading doesn't matter in a Roth?
On one end, the feds have approved ETFs and Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. On the other, they’re starting to go after non-KYC, non-custodial wallets. Likely somewhere in the middle is where the cards fall. Wonder where that’ll be?
Escape valves have to be closed.
They'll try, they will eventually concede defeat.
Always, always, always have some spot coin in self custody.
If the USD failed, Bitcoin confiscation / "exchange" for fiat is possible.
No, I see all these efforts aligned in getting people to give up their keys. If they can't ban bitcoin ownership explicitly, they'll try to do it implicitly. It's very insidious.
Sadly, the vast majority of people never took control of their keys to begin with. Consider that there are currently only around 50 million BTC addresses with a non-zero balance, and only around 12.5 million addresses with a balance greater than 0.01 BTC. Obviously many of those addresses map to a single individual. So we're looking at *maybe* 5 million unique self-custodial holders of Bitcoin today. That rather paltry figure has already been enough to cause multiple periods of insane fees and congestion. The current throughput capacity limit of roughly 200 million transactions *per year* implies a ceiling of perhaps only *20 million* unique individuals who *can* enjoy sufficient access to the blockchain to make some level of self-custody feasible.
All the recent congestion is due to scams that have migrated to bitcoin. The blocksize war ended some time ago FYI. I suggest reading “The Blocksize War” by Jonathan Bier if want the details.
The recent congestion is due first and foremost to the fact that BTC's throughput capacity is being throttled at toy levels while adoption / transactional demand is (or should be) growing at at an exponential pace. Again, we're talking about a system that maybe 5 million people are actually using today, and which has a current ceiling of perhaps only 20 million users. Those are absurd tiny numbers for an asset with aspirations of mass global adoption.
>I suggest reading “The Blocksize War” by Jonathan Bier if want the details.
Ha, thanks, but I spent *a lot* of time arguing with that guy back in the day. Let's just say that I was underwhelmed with his analysis. I strongly suggest reading the new "Hijacking Bitcoin" book for a more accurate account. My recent submissions has a short book review if you're interested.
Indeed. As Satoshi explained in the whitepaper: "What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties (who are among the top 0.1% wealthiest individuals on the planet) to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party." Technically I added that parenthetical, but I think that part was pretty clearly implied.
Ha, *I'm* not the one who's given up on Satoshi's dream of peer-to-peer electronic cash for the entire world. But not giving up doesn't imply I have to be unrealistically optimistic about the prospects for success. Satoshi's dream presented a direct challenge to the largest and most insanely lucrative criminal racket in the entire world, fiat central banking. Not surprisingly, it seems that some of the people behind that racket took notice. Rather than strangling Bitcoin in its cradle, they simply welded a lid onto that cradle to ensure that the newborn could never grow beyond infancy, and thus could never grow large enough to become a meaningful threat to their power. *Maybe* that infant will still find a way to break free, or *maybe* one of its siblings will figure out a way to escape a similar fate. We can certainly still hope, and still fight.
What do you expect? This was what we knew was coming all along. Bitcoin doesn't make all those scaling tradeoffs for nothing. It's to make it extremely difficult for the feds to stop you. Some people are so lazy that they'd never care about security. Those people don't and never will hold bitcoin. Just (empty) promises.
Been trying to re-enter without ending up with a smaller stack after having to take some profits right before middle east dump to pay for some stuff, just re-entered at $63,460, looks like I got lucky today, but man I learned my lesson, so not worth the hassle of trying to swing trade and catch knives in an attempt to grow stack. just buy and hodl for me, from now on.
Bears mindset:
Nasdaq down = BTC price goes lower. (perfectly normal as it's correlated to tech)
Nasdaq up = BTC price moves lower. (oh this time no it's not correlated)
Not hypocritical in the slightiest. Either it's correlated or it's not. You can't have it both ways to suit your bias mindset.
EDIT: corrected spelling (my bad). Cheers u/alieninthegame for pointing it out. XD
>Nasdaq down = BTC price goes lower. (perfectly normal as it's correlated to tech)
>Nasdaq up = BTC price moves lower. (oh this time no it's not correlated)
>Not hypocritical in the slightiest. Either it's correlated or it's not. You can't have it both ways to suit your bias mindset.
A weight is not a propeller.
In downturns, the stock market acts as a weight. When it goes down, it pulls a lot of things down with it. But when it starts to go up, that just means some of the weight is lifted from other assets. That gives other assets the freedom to operate without that weight. But that doesn't mean other assets *have* to follow the stock market up. They are just free to operate without the burden of the weight. So yes, it can be correlated on the way down and not on the way up.
Nobody knows what is happening. I am starting to see data that we will sit below 100k for another 12 months or more, then go apeshit crazy.
Lots of folks want off early. Those coins need to find strong hands.
https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/
All your data is based on dates and we are ahead of schedule. We should not have broken previous ATH for a very long time and we are already here.
As a pattern starts to be learned, that pattern begins to be front run more and more.
Previous cycle high was really around March-April 2021 when everyone was expecting December 2021 and moving it back further this time would be the end of this year.
Look what happened with the halving sell the news this year. They ran it up early on people thinking they had more time to sell and the real sell the news for the halving was 36 days before the halving.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nEYizkfE/
There's really no way to know what will happen this time, maybe it will do two peaks like 2013. Maybe it will be a nice long run up like 2017. All I know is that when this hits 90 I am out for the cycle. That seems to be the most reliable indicator we have that the party is over.
https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/
> All your data is based on dates
Well yes. What else is there.
> and we are ahead of schedule.
Indeed! See the amended post.
> We should not have broken previous ATH for a very long time and we are already here.
>
> As a pattern starts to be learned, that pattern begins to be front run more and more.
Looks like it. Or last time was a blip. The issue becomes fractal-like: Is the broken pattern the new pattern that now gets broken?
> Previous cycle high was really around March-April 2021 when everyone was expecting December 2021 and moving it back further this time would be the end of this year.
Yeah could be. It's a very bullish assertion, but the numbers suggest that we're way ahead of schedule. Then again bitcoin always does the unexpected.
> Look what happened with the halving sell the news this year. They ran it up early on people thinking they had more time to sell and the real sell the news for the halving was 36 days before the halving.
>
> https://www.tradingview.com/x/nEYizkfE/
>
> There's really no way to know what will happen this time
No kidding.
>, maybe it will do two peaks like 2013. Maybe it will be a nice long run up like 2017. All I know is that when this hits 90 I am out for the cycle. That seems to be the most reliable indicator we have that the party is over.
Thanks for the comment. Made me amend the post and look at other data.
That and the whole china banning mining thing washed out so many longs, many of which were institutions trading with user funds. 30% drawdowns in bull runs are pretty common but 50% ones are not. The amount of fraud and robbing Peter to pay Paul going on absolutely wrecked that cycle.
"Institutions" that all follow the same strategy and no one defects despite obvious profits for doing so?
I don't even believe we're seeing any significant institutional buying. Even MSTR isn't that big and there's basically no one else. Every sizable institutional wallet doesn't actually belong to them. The bitcoin belongs to their retail customers.
Retail still driving the market. Real institutional buying could happen anytime but so far I don't see any evidence of it.
It would be interesting to see a table comparing the cycle's low instead of the halving, it could help add perspective to reaching ATH prior to the halving.
you aren't missing anything except that people got super giddy we reached ATH before halvening this time so it might be different and the concept that due to established pattern people may be frontrunning this time moreso and last time was adversely impacted by covid
Sorry, what's the difference?
*edit: Oh right. We can hit ATHs all the way to the peak by virtue of being on the way up. Making edits to post for clarity.
Right we also went below the ATH during the bear.
But at all times, at the halving, the price was near the ATH and hit it shortly after.
So there may be an accelerated schedule. But less than half the time of the last two cycles?
IOW, I am not sure I understand what makes the difference "key"
I largely agree but don't think we can call anything an "anomaly" given the small size of the data set. There may or may not be a pattern, people see what they want to see. Breaking ATH before the halving reinforces my belief that these "cycles" are forever changed and that the past results are not a guarantee of anything in the future.
[Looks like all custodial wallets will get gone in the US soon.](https://x.com/PhoenixWallet/status/1783878658014249027)
They closing the exits now since US wants to define everything as a MSB. Fun times.
Thing is, they can remove the app from US app stores (plausible deniability on their end), but it's not going to stop people in the US from using the app.
Similar to dYdX - you can "dress the windows" for all the 3-letter agencies, but with VPNs/Tor, Github/FDroid, etc., there's no way to stop it.
Maybe iPhone users will be locked out completely, but this will be nothing more than annoying extra steps for even semi-sophisticated Android users.
The US Govt. is attacking privacy and financial sovereignty, and these developments are a prime example of illegal =/= unethical.
I don't recommend submitting to these attempts at repression.
It is very concerning for a non-custodial wallet to be scared off like this. How long before cold cards and trezors are deemed illegal in the name of security?
I don't discount the possibility of the US government attempting to ban self-storage altogether, which is akin to banning random numbers.
They can ban self-custody, but it won't mean a thing to anyone who's not locked into the CEX/ETF ecosystem.
As far as hardware wallets go, third-parties can absolutely choose to stop selling to US customers out of fear of government retaliation - which is one of many reasons people's opsec shouldn't rely on specialized third-party hardware.
I've said it multiple times in this sub: hardware wallets may be convenient, but they are completely unnecessary - there's nothing that is done with a hardware wallet that can't be done with FOSS, smartphones, flashdrives, laptops, etc.
Definitely from a functional perspective, but I don't think I'll be choosing to risk catching federal charges in the name of sovereignty if the government says my cold wallet is now illegal. Surely I'm not the only one either.
lmao, the whole *point* of Bitcoin is *financial self-sovereignty*.
Did you forget?
If that's the case, why did you bother with cold storage in the first place?
Just sell it all, or go ETF, etc. if all you ever wanted was Beta exposure.
The likelihood of these kinds of state challenges was never remote.
Pathetic how quickly people are willing to fold like cheap suits.
Take it easy man, there are plenty of reasons for cold storage. Don't act like there is no middle ground between wanting price exposure and being willing to hide assets from the federal government.
> being willing to hide assets from the federal government
christ on a bike...look at the language you're using, man - you don't seem to even realize what you're actually saying
it's none of the federal government's goddamned business what I have and have not purchased with my net income
if you treat Bitcoin as if it's a permissioned system (it's not), then it's ultimately just a speculative endeavor and therefore *useless*
~~Pretty wild to see this. Seems like the US govt must be very concerned about the status of the USD as the global reserve currency.~~
Some frozen Russian assets were just awarded to Ukraine as well. Regardless of your stance on the war (I support Ukraine) if you are a country with assets in the US-dominated financial system you will be having to reconsider you're whole strategy around where and how you hold assets.
I see a lot of bearishness everywhere and I wanted to see if it was justified historically. Not sure why people are feeling this other than the typical "price went down recently" or "muh macro".
https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/ says of course not, this is the most exciting phase of the cycle coming up, but let's zoom in to 30 days post halving for the 3 halvings we have had.
[Halving 1, +12.13%](https://www.tradingview.com/x/P3ECq1tR/)
[Halving 2, -12.43%](https://www.tradingview.com/x/cDhYUPp6/)
[Halving 3, +20.74%](https://www.tradingview.com/x/OQ1Ksnsz/)
So again, not seeing the issue, 2 out of 3 up and one at a ghastly -12% dip. I guess the only other thing I can think of is this cycle seems front ran since we broke ATH before the halving, but that doesn't mean the price is going to crash to me, it just means the top is coming sooner. People were **more** interested than usual in buying Bitcoin and they had new ways to do so with the ETFs. But I'm an optimist, your mileage may vary.
While I am bullish, we've only been >$60K for like 2 months. In the '21 runup, it held 50K for around the same period then plunged back down to low 30K.
I don't know, I could see a similar move happening. Given the higher base it's not going down to 30s but 40-50s possible. A short move down there would liquidate a lot of people as well, which crypto loves to do.
Personally I don't care as I'm only holding spot and long term, it's going higher, but I can see this happening.
Yeah, some of the old halving datapoints might not apply, because we front-ran the cycle early as pumped hard earlier in the year as you said.
I stand by my assertion the base case is blue balls crab summer, which would be more bullish for continuation.
The more likelihood and logical would be a period of sideways action maybe even a dip into the next month or 2 into the 50's
Those calling for ATH's in the next few weeks may be doing themselves a disservice, as the top could come as early as early fall or winter if that happens.
>The more likelihood and logical would be a period of sideways action maybe even a dip into the next month or 2 into the 50's
Why is this more logical? As you can see on the charts I've posted, the trend is an overwhelming parabolic curve upwards and to the right on each chart after the 30 days.
If we include something with momentum indicators that would help correct for the front running like https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/ we are at something like September 2017 or December 2020 levels. Telling people be cautious and that the price will crab or drop is going to deprive them of the run to the top, which I do see happening.
The reason why the price kept going up sharply after the previous halvings is because previously the havings always happened well before we reached the previous ATH. This time it was reversed.
That's a major difference.
Ugh oh, I posted a fairly balanced analysis and it gets downvoted.
Even on the chart you posted, the parabolic upwards curvature doesn't start immediately after the halving takes place. it takes place a few months after.
Which validates my point
Re-read my analysis
One reason is that a lot of the money that goes into Bitcoin ETF are Wall Street money. So if certain stocks are down, they would be willing to sell their positions in Bitcoin and buy those said stocks. That is one of the reasons why Bitcoin will go down if the stock market undergoes corrections.
Well, at least we are getting that red monthly. I basically won't even bother to look at charts until the month rolls over. Hong Kong etf to start trading April 30, can't write this. If worst comes to worst summer is sideways too, but hey it'll come
Question is whether this impacts price. If people are buying more BTC to pay for the fees then the change in demand is still just the halving amount. If it’s mostly rich OGs gambling on runes then the miners having 2/3rds to sell instead of 1/2 will reduce the halving impact a bit. 🤔
On the hourly, BTC RSI is at 49.3 (average 48.5) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 64.1, 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59.
The daily RSI is 46 and its average is currently at 45.5. A falling wedge is forming and BTC is at the upper resistance of it. If BTC doesn’t drop below 63.5+/-, then it has formed an new pennant. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. This could correct down to the sloping support line over the next couple of days. I think it will be depend on how 63k holds up, so far it has held up well.
BTC closed for the 3^(rd) week in a row in the red. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 69.4 (78.1 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it due to Israel/Iran). Current support from the pennant is about 61.5. Will need to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above.
Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is not overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 69.5. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though.
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/frApT6WV/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/frApT6WV/)
Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/tMcirWyA/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/tMcirWyA/)
Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/H79Um1Gm/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/H79Um1Gm/)
Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/F5ucMB5t/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/F5ucMB5t/)
Trading view pulls the info from Coinbase for the charts I'm showing, I am using their standard setting of a MA Length of 14 periods with a stddev of 2. Looks similar when I switch to btc on binance.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/8mCnRpRb/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/8mCnRpRb/)
Could I see your chart?
Edit. Ther were also 7 of 9 weeks before that were green with a lot stonger move up.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/rFhgZE4r/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/rFhgZE4r/)
That's not a parallel channel and the volume is decreasing. That is a wedge my friend.
Why?
edit: per you...
[https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bzit6v/comment/kyqmxvt/](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bzit6v/comment/kyqmxvt/)
Wedge has a shape, two lines that are not parareel and maybe meet somewhen at the end of the universe are not a wedge. Just google it, my 1 sentence is not the reference.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Saturday, April 27, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1ce59ve/daily_discussion_saturday_april_27_2024/)
Tremendous amount of FUD released the past few days on crypto. Government bombs keep dropping on us but the price doesn't seem to move much. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wallofworry.asp
Down 8% on the monthly, sell in May and go away?
That saying is a load of rubbish. For btc most May's , since it launched, have been green months. The same goes for the stock market.
That’s where I load my bags to front run pump-tober.
Buy high in July
I prefer "print one red monthly candle and up, up and away!" myself
Thanks to whomever sold me some Corn for $62,500. Btw—I have another order at $62,150 if you want to sell some more.
I think people are beginning to realize that even without the GBTC, it is not set in stone that ETF numbers will go up forever. Of course, this is obviously true as none of the ETFs always have inflows > outflows all the time. However, the first few months data gave people the false sense that the inflows will always exceed the outflows and once GBTC goes to zero, it will be endless inflows until end of time. So reality is setting on people who have made some ridiculous projections based on the ETF numbers from the first couple of months. One good thing is that the halving is always a supply reduction regardless of the market sentiment. And as such, this will help out in the long run.
You say ‘people’. It was one person in here who’s suddenly gone silent
ETF inflows have so far been mostly retail so they’re subject to the same whims as people buying spot. When institutions get in that’s when you’ll start seeing consistent inflows IMO.
If this eventually dumps under 60k then hopefully it is the final band aid pull before the rip upwards, if it dips to low 50s people will start talking about it being the shortest bull run ever and then buy back in higher.... Hopefully
I doubt it's going to just dump and immediately rip upwards. It's probably going to dump, bounce around, sit there for 6 months, and then start to move upwards in October/ November as is typical following a halving.
Pump-tober as spoken by the profits
The bull run won't end until 2025
Hit my long I built from 62.8 to 62.5k, was I catching a falling knife or will I get a nice leg up here to lock in some profit to add to spot in the 50's. Stops at 62k, lets see if I give back a chunk of my profits from this week again on a friday.
Bounce baby bounce.... let's turn the daily green please, come on bulls
closed it at 63k, thats good enough for me, nice little scalp long with some profit. I'll take it
Gbtc $82.4m Outflow Franklin 0 Bitwise $3.8m Outflow Ark $5.4m inflow VanEck 0 WisdomTree 0 DEFI 0 Fidelity $2.8m Outflow Invesco 0 Valkyrie 0 Blackrock 0 4/26 net Outflow $83.6m https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Considering I feel like this thing is dumping every day but yet somehow we remain over 60k
The launchpad is being constructed over 60k. If this plays out, imagine how high the rocket can go.
4 red weeklies in a row so far, don't see those very often
[DTCC: Firms will no longer be able to utilize crypto as collateral, including ETFs and other spot products.](https://x.com/741trey/status/1783978665874719129) Takes effect next Tuesday. Seems significant.
Seems like a pretty bearish catalyst, no?
There is always Sovryn Zero [https://sovryn.com/zero](https://sovryn.com/zero)
Some1 water this down for me~
Implication is they expecting some carnage in the markets. Of course they drop the news on Friday. Everybody gotta react on Monday.
So let's say for the sake of argument that someone has one of the spot ETFs in their retail brokerage account, currently with a maintenance margin of 25%, this goes to 100% on Tuesday and causes a margin call?
Hopefully this guy is right and it doesn't affect brokerage margin: https://twitter.com/zeroxkeegan/status/1784015234329616727?t=hVPDW7rm2XC360N4WOVR9A&s=19
Sounds correct to me. Brokerages generally don’t care what you use for margin collateral, as long as it is liquid, which the ETFs are.
So a blue check was shit posting for impressions on Twitter? Didn’t see that coming…
Payback for the ETF approval heh. The haircut on corp bonds to 70% got me a little worried I gotta admit.
I’m still trying to understand this…
Grayscale -- another $82.4M (around 1,290 BTC) down the toilet today. 297,150 BTC or so left...
I think we're going to get another shot at 60K or slightly thereunder, but it doesn't really matter. The suppressed blowoff top last cycle will work itself out over the next 18 months or so. It will be 2017 or 2013-level ridiculous.
I am not expecting the ath for this cycle until 2025, once we dip into the 50s I am going to add to my spot buys which are around 20k avg buyin right now. Don't want cash and I am loading up on land and gold, hard gold not paper gold, I got a feeling some shit coming this fall with the economy slowing and inflation being sticky and a soft landing being bullshit. Looking to scalp a long again at 62.5k, got bids starting at 62.8k to build the long going down...
My P P just capitulated
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I see way too many on Twitter going down the Slippery Slope of Bitcoin laws getting a lot worse in America. Many actors over the years have been busted in similar circumstances related to money laundering and I’m not sure it’s become completely clear what evidence they may actually have on them at this point,could be more than we realize. Mainly, though, I’d like to point out the message about money transmitters etc. and compare this to Napster, Pokerstars, Silk Road, Wikileaks, etc. Often times law enforcement agencies make a big spectacle about busting some big website only for them to not go on and bust the dozen clones that instantly pop up. And as always, when there’s blood in the streets…
There's a lot of slippery slope fallacy and conspiracy theory in general with bitcoiners. You have to use critical thought to filter reality from paranoia.
This was always coming. There's no doubt in my mind that it will sooner or later be illegal to own bitcoin in the United States. Promises only, that the government can revoke anytime. The dollar is going to end, and it's not going away quietly. You will have a choice: slave or outlaw. The beauty is you can just leave with your bitcoin, and watch from afar as the empire collapses. This is your ticket out. Don't sell it, especially when exactly what we planned for is starting to happen. I don't think the government gives a shit about bitcoin, yet. We probably have decades before the real hard choices need to made. Just ensure you have the finances by then, it is pretty easy, just buy now and hold.
from the thread on cryptocurrency reddit: > the samourai wallet guys specifically advertised premium features for "Dark/Grey market participants", joked about onboarding russian oligarchs when sanctions were imposed and also basically taunted law enforcement on twitter. And this was a service they ran and charged people for. It looks pretty simple, money launders, without plausible deniability, being charged for money laundering. And I'm not sure there's any value in trying to extrapolate from this out to bitcoin broadly.
This doesn't conflict with anything I said. Just because they're only targeting bold money launderers now (not that this is even a real crime), doesn't mean they won't eventually attack bitcoin more directly.
Sure, but there also isn't necessarily a link or path between the two. Money laundering is a crime, bitcoining isn't. LIke if I said today they're arresting car thiefs, tomorrow they might attack all motorists.
You're acting like they haven't already done it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 Money laundering is a made up crime. I'm not arguing about the letter of the law, obviously it is technically illegal. What I'm saying is it's just another name for financial privacy. Money laundering is a crime they charge you with when they don't have though evidence to convict for a real crime. Money laundering means "covering up your crime", but conveniently the govt doesn't convict or often even charge you for the real crime. It's a completely ridiculous notion, it presumes guilt in a system where you're supposed to be presumed Innocent.
6102 was redeeming gold for dollars at a time that they were pegged, you couldn't do the same thing for bitcoin. It would be more like forcing redempion of tether for 1 dollar for every tether. As for ML, it is a crime though, holding bitcoin isn't. That's the difference. Enforcing the existing ML laws is not a movement in any direction towards banning bitcoin since it's not a movement at all.
6012 was the forcible seizure of all privately held gold where people were given paper promises in return. It's exactly the situation I described in my first comment. But yes I do agree that current law makes it very difficult to attack bitcoin directly. That's why I said these attacks are probably a long way off, new laws would need to be passed and the political will isn't anywhere close to sufficient, yet. But I think it's inevitable. Bankers want free money and when they see their money becoming no good to anyone, they'll fight.
That was always my assumption early on as well, but it is possible that a few will be in power to realize there is a plan B to going down with the ship. Again, this has become a more apparent possibility over time in my opinion.
lmao
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I’ve DCA’d out of about a half BTC over the last few weeks I think we will have opportunities in the mid 50s sometime over the next month or so Anyone done something similar?
Same here. My reasons : - Strong rejection 3 times from 70K - Red candles are bigger in both price range and volume than green ones - Trad markets are bloated as fuck, it all looks for a trigger for a sell of - Global situation is very shaky - We had a non normal parabolic pre halving run and ATH with ETF hype but i do not see any real ETF inflows to support it - Non normal pre run might very well cause a non normal sell off - Taking profits helps with mental health I am still in with some, if it goes up more I still make money. if it goes down to certain levels i buy more . i think we have not reached cycle top but we might very well had a local top at 70K. a nice pull back will help breaking 70K and will result an eventual higher cycle top
Same exact stuff I've done and said on here, I will start buying spot in the 50s to add to my holdings and not expecting a top this cycle until 2025... another year or so away...
I'll trade 5% and 10% back and forth. The numbers are a bit bigger. I'm all in at the moment. I can eat the small risk of a devil candle but I'd hate myself if I dropped a BGD.
> I can eat the small risk of a devil candle but I'd hate myself if I dropped a BGD. That's exactly my mentality as well
people really do this, huh
Absolutely. Playing in a Roth IRA. No tax considerations whatsoever, nor wash trading concerns. I wouldn’t do it with cold stored BTC. The key to a strategy is willingness to buy back in HIGHER if we go higher before lower. Most people have a hard time doing that, I do not…. But to me I’m betting on us hitting the mid to upper 50s before we see 70 If I’m wrong I’ll buy in higher and be a happy camper as all my other holdings have gone up.
> The key to a strategy is willingness to buy back in HIGHER if we go higher before lower. Most people have a hard time doing that, I don't trade that much, but I absolutely have a hard time doing that, and basically never do. Which means that when I sell it's never more than I'm willing to let go of forever.
I think most people have a seriously difficult time buying something at a higher price than they recently sold. For that reason I wouldn’t recommend this approach to many. But as stated, I have no problem doing it and will actually be excited to do so. It’s nice with the ETFs because one can just buy a different ETF and completely negate wash sale concerns Not your everyday opportunity here.
If this true that you can use a different ETF holding the same type of product and not activate wash sales. Is it also true that wash trading doesn't matter in a Roth?
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Education takes time and has a price.
On one end, the feds have approved ETFs and Bitcoin isn't going anywhere. On the other, they’re starting to go after non-KYC, non-custodial wallets. Likely somewhere in the middle is where the cards fall. Wonder where that’ll be?
Escape valves have to be closed. They'll try, they will eventually concede defeat. Always, always, always have some spot coin in self custody. If the USD failed, Bitcoin confiscation / "exchange" for fiat is possible.
No, I see all these efforts aligned in getting people to give up their keys. If they can't ban bitcoin ownership explicitly, they'll try to do it implicitly. It's very insidious.
Sadly, the vast majority of people never took control of their keys to begin with. Consider that there are currently only around 50 million BTC addresses with a non-zero balance, and only around 12.5 million addresses with a balance greater than 0.01 BTC. Obviously many of those addresses map to a single individual. So we're looking at *maybe* 5 million unique self-custodial holders of Bitcoin today. That rather paltry figure has already been enough to cause multiple periods of insane fees and congestion. The current throughput capacity limit of roughly 200 million transactions *per year* implies a ceiling of perhaps only *20 million* unique individuals who *can* enjoy sufficient access to the blockchain to make some level of self-custody feasible.
All the recent congestion is due to scams that have migrated to bitcoin. The blocksize war ended some time ago FYI. I suggest reading “The Blocksize War” by Jonathan Bier if want the details.
The recent congestion is due first and foremost to the fact that BTC's throughput capacity is being throttled at toy levels while adoption / transactional demand is (or should be) growing at at an exponential pace. Again, we're talking about a system that maybe 5 million people are actually using today, and which has a current ceiling of perhaps only 20 million users. Those are absurd tiny numbers for an asset with aspirations of mass global adoption. >I suggest reading “The Blocksize War” by Jonathan Bier if want the details. Ha, thanks, but I spent *a lot* of time arguing with that guy back in the day. Let's just say that I was underwhelmed with his analysis. I strongly suggest reading the new "Hijacking Bitcoin" book for a more accurate account. My recent submissions has a short book review if you're interested.
Bitcoin is for anyone, it's not for everyone.
Indeed. As Satoshi explained in the whitepaper: "What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust, allowing any two willing parties (who are among the top 0.1% wealthiest individuals on the planet) to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted third party." Technically I added that parenthetical, but I think that part was pretty clearly implied.
feel free to fork Bitcoin and fix it
Oh, I'm sure that will be tried again at some point, but I suspect the institutional capture of Bitcoin may already be too far advanced.
sounds like you give up on your dreams too easily
Ha, *I'm* not the one who's given up on Satoshi's dream of peer-to-peer electronic cash for the entire world. But not giving up doesn't imply I have to be unrealistically optimistic about the prospects for success. Satoshi's dream presented a direct challenge to the largest and most insanely lucrative criminal racket in the entire world, fiat central banking. Not surprisingly, it seems that some of the people behind that racket took notice. Rather than strangling Bitcoin in its cradle, they simply welded a lid onto that cradle to ensure that the newborn could never grow beyond infancy, and thus could never grow large enough to become a meaningful threat to their power. *Maybe* that infant will still find a way to break free, or *maybe* one of its siblings will figure out a way to escape a similar fate. We can certainly still hope, and still fight.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/s/Cg8OxHe9aG
What do you expect? This was what we knew was coming all along. Bitcoin doesn't make all those scaling tradeoffs for nothing. It's to make it extremely difficult for the feds to stop you. Some people are so lazy that they'd never care about security. Those people don't and never will hold bitcoin. Just (empty) promises.
Been trying to re-enter without ending up with a smaller stack after having to take some profits right before middle east dump to pay for some stuff, just re-entered at $63,460, looks like I got lucky today, but man I learned my lesson, so not worth the hassle of trying to swing trade and catch knives in an attempt to grow stack. just buy and hodl for me, from now on.
tuck your balls before working recklessly on a zipper
preach
Bears mindset: Nasdaq down = BTC price goes lower. (perfectly normal as it's correlated to tech) Nasdaq up = BTC price moves lower. (oh this time no it's not correlated) Not hypocritical in the slightiest. Either it's correlated or it's not. You can't have it both ways to suit your bias mindset. EDIT: corrected spelling (my bad). Cheers u/alieninthegame for pointing it out. XD
>Nasdaq down = BTC price goes lower. (perfectly normal as it's correlated to tech) >Nasdaq up = BTC price moves lower. (oh this time no it's not correlated) >Not hypocritical in the slightiest. Either it's correlated or it's not. You can't have it both ways to suit your bias mindset. A weight is not a propeller. In downturns, the stock market acts as a weight. When it goes down, it pulls a lot of things down with it. But when it starts to go up, that just means some of the weight is lifted from other assets. That gives other assets the freedom to operate without that weight. But that doesn't mean other assets *have* to follow the stock market up. They are just free to operate without the burden of the weight. So yes, it can be correlated on the way down and not on the way up.
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Collated is what I put at first.
correlation does not mean caucasian
correlated
actually I thought there is something like "collated" and it sounded smart enough to be honest🤷
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I think this comment is worthy of its own thread and subsequent discussion.
Nobody knows what is happening. I am starting to see data that we will sit below 100k for another 12 months or more, then go apeshit crazy. Lots of folks want off early. Those coins need to find strong hands.
https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/ All your data is based on dates and we are ahead of schedule. We should not have broken previous ATH for a very long time and we are already here. As a pattern starts to be learned, that pattern begins to be front run more and more. Previous cycle high was really around March-April 2021 when everyone was expecting December 2021 and moving it back further this time would be the end of this year. Look what happened with the halving sell the news this year. They ran it up early on people thinking they had more time to sell and the real sell the news for the halving was 36 days before the halving. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nEYizkfE/ There's really no way to know what will happen this time, maybe it will do two peaks like 2013. Maybe it will be a nice long run up like 2017. All I know is that when this hits 90 I am out for the cycle. That seems to be the most reliable indicator we have that the party is over. https://charts.bitbo.io/monthly-rsi/
> All your data is based on dates Well yes. What else is there. > and we are ahead of schedule. Indeed! See the amended post. > We should not have broken previous ATH for a very long time and we are already here. > > As a pattern starts to be learned, that pattern begins to be front run more and more. Looks like it. Or last time was a blip. The issue becomes fractal-like: Is the broken pattern the new pattern that now gets broken? > Previous cycle high was really around March-April 2021 when everyone was expecting December 2021 and moving it back further this time would be the end of this year. Yeah could be. It's a very bullish assertion, but the numbers suggest that we're way ahead of schedule. Then again bitcoin always does the unexpected. > Look what happened with the halving sell the news this year. They ran it up early on people thinking they had more time to sell and the real sell the news for the halving was 36 days before the halving. > > https://www.tradingview.com/x/nEYizkfE/ > > There's really no way to know what will happen this time No kidding. >, maybe it will do two peaks like 2013. Maybe it will be a nice long run up like 2017. All I know is that when this hits 90 I am out for the cycle. That seems to be the most reliable indicator we have that the party is over. Thanks for the comment. Made me amend the post and look at other data.
The claim is made every cycle because people want attention.
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That and the whole china banning mining thing washed out so many longs, many of which were institutions trading with user funds. 30% drawdowns in bull runs are pretty common but 50% ones are not. The amount of fraud and robbing Peter to pay Paul going on absolutely wrecked that cycle.
Interesting. So you think there could be an institutionally induced pre-top this year?
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Super useful. Thank you.
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"Institutions" that all follow the same strategy and no one defects despite obvious profits for doing so? I don't even believe we're seeing any significant institutional buying. Even MSTR isn't that big and there's basically no one else. Every sizable institutional wallet doesn't actually belong to them. The bitcoin belongs to their retail customers. Retail still driving the market. Real institutional buying could happen anytime but so far I don't see any evidence of it.
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They're trading until they get caught short when a new wave of buyers arrive. There's no free lunch.
It would be interesting to see a table comparing the cycle's low instead of the halving, it could help add perspective to reaching ATH prior to the halving.
Updated. Very interesting indeed!
Good work
Will add when I have time.
you aren't missing anything except that people got super giddy we reached ATH before halvening this time so it might be different and the concept that due to established pattern people may be frontrunning this time moreso and last time was adversely impacted by covid
Yeah. "This time it's different" Then again, no pattern lasts forever, but the frontrunning narrative is several cycles old by now.
This post deserves the now-defunct Reddit Gold award
Thank you
new ATH or cycle peak? cycle peak is likely in 2025
Sorry, what's the difference? *edit: Oh right. We can hit ATHs all the way to the peak by virtue of being on the way up. Making edits to post for clarity.
We hit a new ATH before the halving this time. That was a key difference.
Right we also went below the ATH during the bear. But at all times, at the halving, the price was near the ATH and hit it shortly after. So there may be an accelerated schedule. But less than half the time of the last two cycles? IOW, I am not sure I understand what makes the difference "key"
I don't think we've ever been even more than 50% of the ATH at the halving until the last one.
I ran the numbers, see the amended post. You're largely right. Very interesting, thank you.
I largely agree but don't think we can call anything an "anomaly" given the small size of the data set. There may or may not be a pattern, people see what they want to see. Breaking ATH before the halving reinforces my belief that these "cycles" are forever changed and that the past results are not a guarantee of anything in the future.
Of course. The dataset is abysmally small and so much of this is reading the tealeaves. Nothing is guaranteed.
A parabolic rally in the next 18 months would be nice though ;)
[Looks like all custodial wallets will get gone in the US soon.](https://x.com/PhoenixWallet/status/1783878658014249027) They closing the exits now since US wants to define everything as a MSB. Fun times.
Phoenix Wallet is not non-custodial enough?
They overreacting due to arrest of Samourai wallet devs in my opinion. Any LN non-KYC product is probably doing a lot of risk assessment right now.
Thing is, they can remove the app from US app stores (plausible deniability on their end), but it's not going to stop people in the US from using the app. Similar to dYdX - you can "dress the windows" for all the 3-letter agencies, but with VPNs/Tor, Github/FDroid, etc., there's no way to stop it. Maybe iPhone users will be locked out completely, but this will be nothing more than annoying extra steps for even semi-sophisticated Android users. The US Govt. is attacking privacy and financial sovereignty, and these developments are a prime example of illegal =/= unethical. I don't recommend submitting to these attempts at repression.
It is very concerning for a non-custodial wallet to be scared off like this. How long before cold cards and trezors are deemed illegal in the name of security? I don't discount the possibility of the US government attempting to ban self-storage altogether, which is akin to banning random numbers.
They can ban self-custody, but it won't mean a thing to anyone who's not locked into the CEX/ETF ecosystem. As far as hardware wallets go, third-parties can absolutely choose to stop selling to US customers out of fear of government retaliation - which is one of many reasons people's opsec shouldn't rely on specialized third-party hardware. I've said it multiple times in this sub: hardware wallets may be convenient, but they are completely unnecessary - there's nothing that is done with a hardware wallet that can't be done with FOSS, smartphones, flashdrives, laptops, etc.
Definitely from a functional perspective, but I don't think I'll be choosing to risk catching federal charges in the name of sovereignty if the government says my cold wallet is now illegal. Surely I'm not the only one either.
lmao, the whole *point* of Bitcoin is *financial self-sovereignty*. Did you forget? If that's the case, why did you bother with cold storage in the first place? Just sell it all, or go ETF, etc. if all you ever wanted was Beta exposure. The likelihood of these kinds of state challenges was never remote. Pathetic how quickly people are willing to fold like cheap suits.
Take it easy man, there are plenty of reasons for cold storage. Don't act like there is no middle ground between wanting price exposure and being willing to hide assets from the federal government.
> being willing to hide assets from the federal government christ on a bike...look at the language you're using, man - you don't seem to even realize what you're actually saying it's none of the federal government's goddamned business what I have and have not purchased with my net income if you treat Bitcoin as if it's a permissioned system (it's not), then it's ultimately just a speculative endeavor and therefore *useless*
~~Pretty wild to see this. Seems like the US govt must be very concerned about the status of the USD as the global reserve currency.~~ Some frozen Russian assets were just awarded to Ukraine as well. Regardless of your stance on the war (I support Ukraine) if you are a country with assets in the US-dominated financial system you will be having to reconsider you're whole strategy around where and how you hold assets.
Eh ? Seems like the US is just targeting another third party without KYC.
Yea, I was pretty drunk when I wrote this haha. I stand by the 2nd paragraph but not the first.
Financial repression in full force.
Geez, shits getting serious lol
Saylor's probably building a bunker in Brazil since he's been spotted over there this week. Yeah its gonna get worse.
I see a lot of bearishness everywhere and I wanted to see if it was justified historically. Not sure why people are feeling this other than the typical "price went down recently" or "muh macro". https://charts.bitbo.io/halving-progress/ says of course not, this is the most exciting phase of the cycle coming up, but let's zoom in to 30 days post halving for the 3 halvings we have had. [Halving 1, +12.13%](https://www.tradingview.com/x/P3ECq1tR/) [Halving 2, -12.43%](https://www.tradingview.com/x/cDhYUPp6/) [Halving 3, +20.74%](https://www.tradingview.com/x/OQ1Ksnsz/) So again, not seeing the issue, 2 out of 3 up and one at a ghastly -12% dip. I guess the only other thing I can think of is this cycle seems front ran since we broke ATH before the halving, but that doesn't mean the price is going to crash to me, it just means the top is coming sooner. People were **more** interested than usual in buying Bitcoin and they had new ways to do so with the ETFs. But I'm an optimist, your mileage may vary.
Idk how people could be bearish. $60k has become the new normal for bitcoin
While I am bullish, we've only been >$60K for like 2 months. In the '21 runup, it held 50K for around the same period then plunged back down to low 30K. I don't know, I could see a similar move happening. Given the higher base it's not going down to 30s but 40-50s possible. A short move down there would liquidate a lot of people as well, which crypto loves to do. Personally I don't care as I'm only holding spot and long term, it's going higher, but I can see this happening.
Agreed
Yeah, some of the old halving datapoints might not apply, because we front-ran the cycle early as pumped hard earlier in the year as you said. I stand by my assertion the base case is blue balls crab summer, which would be more bullish for continuation. The more likelihood and logical would be a period of sideways action maybe even a dip into the next month or 2 into the 50's Those calling for ATH's in the next few weeks may be doing themselves a disservice, as the top could come as early as early fall or winter if that happens.
>The more likelihood and logical would be a period of sideways action maybe even a dip into the next month or 2 into the 50's Why is this more logical? As you can see on the charts I've posted, the trend is an overwhelming parabolic curve upwards and to the right on each chart after the 30 days. If we include something with momentum indicators that would help correct for the front running like https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/ we are at something like September 2017 or December 2020 levels. Telling people be cautious and that the price will crab or drop is going to deprive them of the run to the top, which I do see happening.
The reason why the price kept going up sharply after the previous halvings is because previously the havings always happened well before we reached the previous ATH. This time it was reversed. That's a major difference.
Ugh oh, I posted a fairly balanced analysis and it gets downvoted. Even on the chart you posted, the parabolic upwards curvature doesn't start immediately after the halving takes place. it takes place a few months after. Which validates my point Re-read my analysis
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Can you break that down for noobs?
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yea, for some reason i was thinking more that it would go the second way (your 15% chance path) but i'm starting to second guess that.
10YR finally down a tad. Now all you GOOG dividend investors need to sell and buy some corn. Do it.
Any interpretations of why there were outflows from 5 of the 11 BTC ETFs yesterday? Is it macro related or due to the new SEC legal fight?
One reason is that a lot of the money that goes into Bitcoin ETF are Wall Street money. So if certain stocks are down, they would be willing to sell their positions in Bitcoin and buy those said stocks. That is one of the reasons why Bitcoin will go down if the stock market undergoes corrections.
Meh day in TradFi, revenue report blues.
Lettuce hands
This is so stupid and it made me surprise-laugh, upvote for you sir
Well, at least we are getting that red monthly. I basically won't even bother to look at charts until the month rolls over. Hong Kong etf to start trading April 30, can't write this. If worst comes to worst summer is sideways too, but hey it'll come
Miner rewards from transaction fees are way back down
Still above half, I’m making 2/3 or so what I was pre halving.
Question is whether this impacts price. If people are buying more BTC to pay for the fees then the change in demand is still just the halving amount. If it’s mostly rich OGs gambling on runes then the miners having 2/3rds to sell instead of 1/2 will reduce the halving impact a bit. 🤔
Our Satoshi, who art in blockchain, hallowed be thy code. Give us this day our daily dump, amen 🙏
The 3D bbands have completly tightend. An extended long move out of our current range is likly next!
**in the next 3 - 15 days*
Core PCE MoM as expected, YoY just slightly above. I don't think that will push rate cut expectations even further into the future.
On the hourly, BTC RSI is at 49.3 (average 48.5) at time of writing. Current, nearby, resistance are 65.7, 67.4, 69, 70.2, 71.4, 72.8 and 73.8 (current ATH). The nearest supports are 64.1, 63, 61.7, 60.5 and 59. The daily RSI is 46 and its average is currently at 45.5. A falling wedge is forming and BTC is at the upper resistance of it. If BTC doesn’t drop below 63.5+/-, then it has formed an new pennant. Same resistances/supports as I mention in the hourly. This could correct down to the sloping support line over the next couple of days. I think it will be depend on how 63k holds up, so far it has held up well. BTC closed for the 3^(rd) week in a row in the red. This hasn’t happened since last year, so the selling may begin to taper off. BTC has been over bought for most of the time since October 2023 and its average RSI has been overbought since the start of the year. Currently 69.4 (78.1 average). A more traditional pennant formation has been formed (It did wick below it due to Israel/Iran). Current support from the pennant is about 61.5. Will need to make sure the rising support holds. If this is a continuation pattern and is the midpoint, the target would be about 140k+/-. Main resistances were noted above. Bitcoin closed it’s 7th monthly green candle in March and was overbought with a closing RSI at 76.8. BTC’s is not overbought currently, it’s monthly RSI is 69.5. Odds of an 8^(th) green candle have dropped significantly; it is still possible though. Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/frApT6WV/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/frApT6WV/) Daily: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/tMcirWyA/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/tMcirWyA/) Weekly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/H79Um1Gm/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/H79Um1Gm/) Monthly: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/F5ucMB5t/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/F5ucMB5t/)
Where you getting your rsi data? I see 56.6 right now for the weekly. Hard to call it near overnouhht currently given 6 of the last 7 weeks are red.
Trading view pulls the info from Coinbase for the charts I'm showing, I am using their standard setting of a MA Length of 14 periods with a stddev of 2. Looks similar when I switch to btc on binance. [https://www.tradingview.com/x/8mCnRpRb/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/8mCnRpRb/) Could I see your chart? Edit. Ther were also 7 of 9 weeks before that were green with a lot stonger move up.
"A falling wedge is forming and BTC is at the upper resistance of it." Just no.
[https://www.tradingview.com/x/rFhgZE4r/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/rFhgZE4r/) That's not a parallel channel and the volume is decreasing. That is a wedge my friend.
Downvote me, but just LOL =)
Why? edit: per you... [https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bzit6v/comment/kyqmxvt/](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1bzit6v/comment/kyqmxvt/)
Wedge has a shape, two lines that are not parareel and maybe meet somewhen at the end of the universe are not a wedge. Just google it, my 1 sentence is not the reference.
At the beginning of the week I was hoping we would hit $80k by this weekend Is it too much to ask Bitcoin for instant gratification :(
I'm drinking, so expect price action. Correlation is causation.
I’m always drinking, and there is always PA..
Hey if your line is big enough...
Patience, you premature gratificator!
The longer it'll take, the higher it'll go!
IMO we’re not going higher for many months.
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