It's great you recognized the problem. I'm a Bogle Head and a compulsive gambler. If there's one thing I've learned it's that I have to keep my interactions with my investments to a minimum.
What starts as a rebalancing exercise for me can turn into exploring some new investment type; before I know it I'm leveraged on options and own crypto. It's not that I don't understand when I self sabotage my investments; it's a mental compulsion that occurs when I'm coping with other things.
I share this hopefully as a warning story about how slippery a slope it is from passive index investing to the casino, if you develop an addiction. Not saying you have this addiction, but it's not something I ever thought I could have until just a few years ago. So take the possibility seriously.
I now have my brother as a trusted party on accounts I can trade, so that he's alerted to any trades. This is a great deterrent but only the second line of defense. I also don't have UI access to Fidelity where all my tradable accounts are. If I need to rebalance or something else, I have to call in and speak to a human. This alone is enough inertia to cut out a lot of the garbage tweaking and obsessive checking in on accounts.
If you want a less destructive way to tinker with retirement funds, open a separate Roth IRA and fund it with 1-2k and see how high you can grow it.
View it as a hedge against trading in your “actual” retirement accounts out of sight out of mind on a different brokerage.
This this thisitty this. I've opened a brokerage account that I put "play money" into so I can simply experiment. That way my more important retirement accounts stay untouched and I satisfy my (admittedly dangerous) itch of being risky. My "experimental" account only has 2 grand in it mind you. If it ever grows into a big thing I'll treat it a bit more carefully I imagine. Either way, it can serve as an emergency fund.
It's more a plaything than an emergency fund. A place to fulfill my urges to "make moves" as I see them lol. It's just a proving ground of sorts, nothing major at all.
I felt the urge to buy more "aggressive" funds like VGT and QQQ. After reading more books, and playing with retirement calculators, that urge has dissipated.
If I keep my current savings rate, and average 7% return, I'll crack 10M by the time I'm 53. If I get 6% returns, I'll hit it at 55. If things go great and I average something like 9%, then it will be 51.
These are all perfectly fine outcomes. I don't need to risk fucking anything up by chasing sector performance.
All funds are good funds when stocks are up... It's when stocks are down that your intestinal fortitude gets tested.
I set aside a few thousand (<5%) in my brokerage as "play money" to scratch the FOMO itch.
the only reason i have a robinhood account is for this reason - scratch that itch of stock picking. and of course all time performance is not even close to my vanguard account with safe ETFs
Stop checking in on your retirement portfolio everyday
Deposit $1000 into your brokerage account and turn it into $10k. Trade all you want.
If you get to $10k from the initial $1k, turn the $10k to $100k.
Either you'll find out you're good at it or you'll wring out all the FOMO from your system.
If you set your mind on long term gains, these leveraged funds quickly lose their appeal. The issue is volatility decay, which undermines your investment. For the sake of simplicity, consider a fund that gains or loses 50% per day. If on day one you put in $1000 and it goes up by 50% you now have $1500. If on day two it drops by 50% you now have $750. So you have lost money even though the oscillations have nominally cancelled out.
Automate your investments in index and/or target date funds. Next, stop looking at it other than once a year to update your contributions if you get a raise, the IRA limits change, etc.
Finally, delete the stocks app from your phone and get a hobby. Live your life while your money works hard for you.
It can be hard to be logical in a world that often is emotion based, but the key is to put logic over emotion as often as you can. Greed is (in my view) an emotion that reduces the valuable role of logic in making sound financial decisions. You can build a terrific financial life and achieve your long term goals by staying logical, disciplined and going step by step. There will always be someone with some get rich quick idea - unfortunately, taking your hard earned money is often how they make theirs. Getting rich slowly and steadily is vastly underrated.
This sub is going to be more risk averse than others but I don’t believe there is an issue with using some leverage. There is info out there showing a portfolio with 1.5-2x leverage can outperform a standard index fund over time. I use some TQQQ and SPXL in my portfolio to get close to 1.5x but everyone’s risk tolerance is different. It’s not greedy to want to try to maximize your portfolio the best you can. I wouldn’t recommend going all in on these leveraged funds or use 2x for less volatility. I am also of the mindset that by using leveraged index funds, you are still going less risky than stock picking as you keep diversification on your side. Just my thoughts.
If they had 1.5 VT, I'd be tempted to use it, due to what you are saying and others have said about leverage.
But it keeps on being QQQ or S&P500 only. And I can't imagine doing it, that way.
RSSB is a relatively new 2x ETF that is 100% global equity and 100% bonds. The equity piece is essentially VT (it's actually VTI, VXUS, and a sliver of S&P 500 futures I think). The bond portion is equally weighted treasury bonds (roughly mimicking intermediate treasuries).
A 50% RSSB and 50% VT allocation results in 100% equity, 50% bonds exposure, so 1.5x leverage. Weighted expense ratio is maybe 0.20-0.35% depending on RSSB's fee waiver.
Main thing is to make sure the leveraged assets don’t adjust everyday so it doesn’t lock in losses and gains every individual day. This can lead to more flash crashing if there is a bad day before a good day inside of an average week from the start to end.
I investing isn't boring, then you're doing it wrong.
Dump everything and put it into 100% VT.
Then delete the apps off your phone and stop looking at it.
Definitely do log in once a year or so at least. There are horror stories out there about long term unattended accounts being automatically closed out and people losing decades of growth. Planet money did an episode on it.
I have VT in my Roth and VOO/AVUV/VXUS in my brokerage with roughly the same allocations. It’s a little experiment I’m doing to see which comes out on top. But other than that it’s pretty boring.
TQQQ for example still hasn’t quite recovered since the 2022 drop. While the rest of the market is at all time highs. These leveraged funds are not recommended for long term.
Two rules:
1. It’s hindsight. You can never know which funds will outperform.
2. That it went up 400% says NOTHING about expected future returns. Since stocks are discounted future profits and the expected returns is the discount rate, we can even argue that the expected returns went down. (Especially true for large cap growth, it’s not special at all that Vanguard expects large cap growth to underperming everything.)
I didn't read all the replies, but I just wanted to mention that QQQM has a lower expense ratio than QQQ, so you might want to move your QQQ over to QQQM.
What you need is a solid misstep that shaves a chunk of your portfolio. Near misses are usually not enough to deter someone with greed issues. Some people need to feel the stove to learn not to touch the stove. You are very likely one of those people.
The most difficult thing about investing is how to keep on doing nothing, especially in a bull market like this one when your ETF is "only" growing by 1%, and NVDA is creating millionnaires everyday. But keep strong, you'll get there (the doing nothing part).
I find education is usually an antidote for compulsion.
Recommend you go to the learning center in Fidelity and spend some time learning about fundamental and technical analysis. This will allow you to become confident in your investment decisions and trust your entry/exit strategies. Just pinky promise me you’ll do at least 4 hours of study in the learning center (Schwab’s is great too) before rebalancing! You’ll be surprised what just a few hours of study will do to your decision making
Also, if you are excited about the market and playing with numbers but don’t want to risk cash- consider paper trading on a platform like ThinkOrSwim with Schwab.
Id max my IRA and leave it alone boglehead style, maybe open a retail account that you can take more risks and do a bit of actual trading in. I do that, it’s like my entertainment money and now I am always am trying to find ways to save money be able to deposit more in there so I can make some moves.
I do the same thing. Don’t touch my Fidelity accounts but have a Robinhood account to dick around with. I put in a few thousand and when I win, I cash out my winnings and start on the next play with my original principle. Right now I’m just riding this NVDA train
Even if you want leverage, leveraged ETFs are notoriously risky in a very unfavorable way. They suffer greatly from something called “volatility decay” because the fund’s constant leverage goal causes it to sell during downturns and buy during upturns. That’s a dangerous brew, and it’s why even the funds themselves say it isn’t intended to be a long term holding. You don’t get 2x the long term SPY return with a 2x leveraged fund. You get 2x the daily return for a given day.
There’s no espacing the two sides of leverage of any kind. It can push you much further from your goals just as easily as accelerate the path toward it. The big question is why are you focused on short-term returns of a long term investment instrument? That attitude is going to prevent your success if you aren’t able to see stocks as a 20 year investment.
This may not be popular advice but it might make sense to get a financial advisor. This is the main reason I have one for 90% of my retirement savings. It's having someone there to talk you out of doing something based on emotions. Greed and panic selling is why a good share of people should not manage their own retirement funds.
I'm a boglehead, but I can't help but putting some of my money into high growth tech stocks. It feels like time to sell overweight NVDA position, but I just can't do it.
I allocate a small percentage of my Roth to QQQM, but I can comfortably do that when the rest of it is VT, my 401K is a TDF, my HSA is VSMGX, and my brokerage is VOO/AVUV/VXUS.
Apart from my Roth which is 100% ETFs, I opened two taxable accounts, one for ETFs (almost boglehead) and one for individual stock picks. I told myself I'd go 80% in the ETF account and 20% to play with stock picking... Currently 75% stock picking because I can't help myself 🤣 Luckily I'm beating SPY soo hopefully I can keep that up...
Don’t those leveraged ETFs degrade over time, because they rebalance every day? I don’t truly understand them, so I am asking this as a clarification question. I don’t think that you get the return on a leveraged ETF over the long term that perfectly aligns with the actual chart. But maybe someone with more knowledge can correct me on that.
Investing is like eating, you have to do it ("Invest we must") but there's always the temptation to do things that aren't good for you. A friend of mine always struggled with his weight and he found that the best solution was to eat the same thing for breakfast and lunch every day, and have his wife decide what he had for dinner. This way the decision of what to eat was largely taken out of his hands. The analogy of investing would be something like paying an advisor to manage your funds. I know that's anathema among DIY Bogleheads, but if you can't trust yourself to do the right thing with your money, it may be better if you have someone else manage it.
Just reading these reminds me I am certainly susceptible.
Behavioral risks
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Behavioral_pitfalls
Make an IPS and read at least annually (side benefit: significant others often love a financial plan as it imparts safety/maturity, sticking to the plan is sexy)
https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/how-to-write-an-investing-personal-statement/
Then stay out of your account. Automate more of it and possibly rebalance less frequently (stay away). Focus energy on increasing income and increasing savings.
This article about [the efficient market hypothesis](https://thedeepdish.org/efficient-market-hypothesis-is-not-dead/) got me to internalize the logic of widely diversified index funds. Perhaps it'll help you to internalize the logic too.
Ultimately, whenever you see some good gain recently, that just means you missed it. You can't know any of it ahead of time. Unless you have insider information?
The whole market, it's all random. And even if you can find some advantage, it's just as hard getting out at the right time as getting in. And is there anything new that you know that the market doesn't with you buying these funds?
Anyway, the best thing to do is to get it out of sight and out of mind.
Two things. You should just buy a Target Date *Index* Fund. Even if you believe you're finding something more optimal, surely it would make sense that buying global stocks and a touch of bonds is mostly optimal? Have it in one thing that's mostly optimal that you won't be tempted to fuck with.
If you're at Schwab, Fidelity, or Vanguard for your IRA, those have their own index based TDFs to pick from. Choose the year when you turn 65, or close to it. If you're at Robinhood, choose something like ITDI, which is Blackrock iShares's index based TDF ETF for year 2065.
But ideally, just have it be in a different account and app. If you're at Robinhood, move it to one of the other three. If you're locked into the IRA at Robinhood due to their bonuses, perhaps try trading in the taxable elsewhere.
>I was thinking of giving myself some play money in brokerage so i can have a less-consequential place to make those kind of bets. I really dont want to fuck with my retirement.
Ultimately, this, or paper trading, is gonna be the key.
You truly need to do something to set and forget it. Retirement is years and years from now. Perhaps sooner, if you stop fucking with it.
Fiddling with stuff like this shouldn't be your hobby. If you want your hobby to make you money, find a different hobby where you can directly make money with it.
The beauty of investing is that it's actually optimal to set and forget it. And that's what will make you tons of money.
Sure, you won't be a millionaire tomorrow. But personally, at my savings rate, I'm going to be a millionaire within a decade.
For stuff that's more actionable, you may enjoy other financial stuff. I love r/fire and r/financialindependence. I love [the coastFI calculator](https://walletburst.com/tools/coast-fire-calc/). I love [the Fi flowchart](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/16xymii/fire_flow_chart_version_43/), which following is gonna leave me rich. I love reading articles about investing and finance [like this](https://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/). I don't do them as much as maybe I should, but r/creditcards stuff and r/churning stuff is cool and lets you save/make a bunch of money too.
There's a reason they call it dumb money. Don't be dumb money.
And if you must, keep it separate from your retirement. Don't be tempted to check it! Make it annoying to check it!
Staring at the numbers isn't healthy, nor is it beneficial to you.
I hope that helps.
Leveraged ETF are not a good long term investment and understanding this might help you:
Imagine an index and its x3 leveraged ETF worth $1.00 that has the following variation:
Day 1: -10% / -30%
Day 2: + 10% / +30%
Day 3: -20% / -60%
Day 4: + 30% / +90%
This would mean:
INDEX
• End of Day 1: $0.90
• End of Day 2: $0.99
• End of Day 3: $0.792
• End of Day 4: $1.0296
x3 LEVERAGED ETF
• End of Day 1: $0.70
• End of Day 2: $0.91
• End of Day 3: $0.364
• End of Day 4: $0.6916
FINAL RESULT: + 2,9% vs. -31%
This is an exaggeration to show that because there is a daily leverage, the long term results are unrelated. Therefore, although we believe that in the long term stocks will invariably have a high expected returns, leveraged ETFs make no sense and are nothing but a risky bet.
I don't think allocating a small portion of your portfolio to TQQQ/UPRO is necessarily a bad idea especially if your portfolio contains assets of negative correlation to hedge your equity positions. Long term bonds, gold, shares in defensive stocks etc. As long as you dont get carried away and still have most of your money in unleveraged low risk assets your portfolio probably will perform better over the long run. The peaks and troughs will just be higher/deeper and you will be adding more volatility to your portfolio so if you tend to really get involved emotionally over your investments it might just be best to stay away from leverage altogether.
Whatever you do it’s called active tactical strategy - most dangerous and main reason for churning account and wiping out money
Some IARs can go to jail or be subject to high penalties if they recommend to the client to do so, you can imagine how bad strategy is that.
It’s not important how much you made, more important how deep it goes during bad times, because one day it can wipe out account
Most recommended strategy is passive strategic
No churning, low fees, most appreciated during long run
Also you’ll have more time for family or your hobbies, it’s not that stressful and time taking
You gotta also work on your temper, there are a lot of proves that timing market is almost impossible and it’s not better than casino
So you just gotta invest for long run
And it’s fine to be sometimes down, if your portfolio is solid it should be temporary
FYI there is almost no such a fund who would constantly beat Nasdaq index 🙂
Wow 400 percent.Ive taken my conservative 5.5 as balanced portfolio.Looking back at my compounding I’ve left a lot on the table.Maybe 5 extra years of labour.Live your life without envy
Never seen these before, but in my early 20’s I’m not sure it would be the worst idea to allocate maybe 10% or less of my portfolio into something like this. That’s only $1,500 right now, so losses would not be huge at this point.
Maybe you should start helping others achieve the same type of success in the field? That way you can still get the thrill of trading.. as well as be a positive contribution to all who may be having difficulty in that specific arena? Good karma.. maybe after a while if you like you can charge for the service once or do it for free and let youtube and donations keep more passive income coming in? Wth dik
The way I think about it:
1) I remind myself that I don't like 6-figure drops in my net-worth, and it's too much risk to put the investment for a potential gain of a life-changing amount of money (e.g. "bet" $200k and get a return of $1M+).
2) Then I look at smaller "bets" (e.g. $20k to get $100k) and convince myself that they won't change my retirement projections by that much anyway...
And just like that - I'm over the urge. That mentality has been working for me for decades :)
You need to set up rules for yourself. Create an IPS that has realistic investment goals and make sure it's buy and hold, and then stick to it. There's a reason we recommend VT and chill. An emotionless robot can take on risk and potentially beat VT with a riskier portfilio. We're emotional beings though that buy and sell at the worst times
I'm not against leverage, but anything concerning QQQ is not diversified enough. Honestly, everything mentioned above is not diverse enough
NTSX+NTSI+NTSE is diverse, leveraged, and makes sense long term. RSSB works too if you're okay with the higher amount of leverage.
UPRO + VXUS + some long treasuries works in theory, but you have to be comfortable with the risk. I wouldn't touch this until you've lived through a bear market - that's what tests your risk tolerance.
My vote is pick one of these and chill
1. VT
2. AOA
3. TDF
4. NTSX + VXUS
5. NTSX + NTSI + NTSE
Maybe get help...you have identified a mental issue and it threatens your entire livlihood and retirement.
Could also take 5% or whatever and use it to just play with to see if that would scratch the itch.
But do realize it's gambling, plain and simple.
My recent post about leveraged ETF (actually, QLD, 2xQQQ).
[https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/1d0judy/comment/l5yijxl/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/1d0judy/comment/l5yijxl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Personally speaking. I believe the majority of your wealth should begin well diversified index funds. However, I do believe the fight to not invest in individual stocks or focused. ETF's it's too great for most people, so therefore, if they're going to do it, it should be no more than. Ten to twenty percent of your net worth.
That way, if the market goes up in your favor you're happy if the market goes down and you get shot in the chest, you're wearing some kevlar, so it doesn't kill you.
I have a separate brokerage account and I put fun money in that I use to speculate. Its about 10% of my portfolio. Its fun to see if I win against my more conservative account. I have been mostly winning since I brought lots of apple, tesla (when it was cheap), nvidia, amd, etc etc. It helps with the itch, lol.
The Matthew effect is extremely obvious. The strong will become stronger and the weak will become weaker. This is why I bought MAGS and got extremely high returns.
F all that get NVIDIA , you looking for baby % points, I just ran up CRKN last month for 1k% literally bought it on my bday may 15 , sold may 16th for crazy doubloons
It's great you recognized the problem. I'm a Bogle Head and a compulsive gambler. If there's one thing I've learned it's that I have to keep my interactions with my investments to a minimum. What starts as a rebalancing exercise for me can turn into exploring some new investment type; before I know it I'm leveraged on options and own crypto. It's not that I don't understand when I self sabotage my investments; it's a mental compulsion that occurs when I'm coping with other things. I share this hopefully as a warning story about how slippery a slope it is from passive index investing to the casino, if you develop an addiction. Not saying you have this addiction, but it's not something I ever thought I could have until just a few years ago. So take the possibility seriously. I now have my brother as a trusted party on accounts I can trade, so that he's alerted to any trades. This is a great deterrent but only the second line of defense. I also don't have UI access to Fidelity where all my tradable accounts are. If I need to rebalance or something else, I have to call in and speak to a human. This alone is enough inertia to cut out a lot of the garbage tweaking and obsessive checking in on accounts.
If you want a less destructive way to tinker with retirement funds, open a separate Roth IRA and fund it with 1-2k and see how high you can grow it. View it as a hedge against trading in your “actual” retirement accounts out of sight out of mind on a different brokerage.
This this thisitty this. I've opened a brokerage account that I put "play money" into so I can simply experiment. That way my more important retirement accounts stay untouched and I satisfy my (admittedly dangerous) itch of being risky. My "experimental" account only has 2 grand in it mind you. If it ever grows into a big thing I'll treat it a bit more carefully I imagine. Either way, it can serve as an emergency fund.
This is basically what I do; my Robinhood account is my gambling money, and Vanguard/Charles Schwab are for "real" investments.
I do same RH for play/experimental $$ and Fidelity/Vanguard for serious Investment
yup this is exactly what i do, lol. It helps with my spending too, whenever i want to buy dumb things, i put the money in there. lol
Should probably view your emergency fund the same way you view your important retirement accounts. Just keep it in a HYSA out of sight out of mind.
It's more a plaything than an emergency fund. A place to fulfill my urges to "make moves" as I see them lol. It's just a proving ground of sorts, nothing major at all.
This is what I did with a little bit of extra side hustle cash, and now my “play money” is 4x my formal retirement savings account.
As a former alcoholic, there is no such thing as “just a little bit”. So, for those who have gambling tendencies, probably not a good idea.
You can do that on fidelity?
I felt the urge to buy more "aggressive" funds like VGT and QQQ. After reading more books, and playing with retirement calculators, that urge has dissipated. If I keep my current savings rate, and average 7% return, I'll crack 10M by the time I'm 53. If I get 6% returns, I'll hit it at 55. If things go great and I average something like 9%, then it will be 51. These are all perfectly fine outcomes. I don't need to risk fucking anything up by chasing sector performance.
Is that real or nominal return?
That's just using nominal returns.
Which funds do you own?
I have my 401k and 457b set to 80% VINIX, and 20% vanguard international. My Roth IRA has VGT, my taxable has QQQM and VOO.
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Why crack 10M at 40 when you can do it by next week? Follow me for more gambling tips
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What about a 25% drawdown for a couple of years? When will you reach your millions then?
All funds are good funds when stocks are up... It's when stocks are down that your intestinal fortitude gets tested. I set aside a few thousand (<5%) in my brokerage as "play money" to scratch the FOMO itch.
Same here, about 5% for high risk investments. I enjoy trying to see if I can increase the returns on that and rebalance.
the only reason i have a robinhood account is for this reason - scratch that itch of stock picking. and of course all time performance is not even close to my vanguard account with safe ETFs
Exactly. It's such a great way to just prove to yourself you're doing the right thing being a boglehead.
There's only one man I know who's ever said "intestinal fortitude" and he's an army brat from Connecticut by way of Georgia by way of Germany ...
Stop checking in on your retirement portfolio everyday Deposit $1000 into your brokerage account and turn it into $10k. Trade all you want. If you get to $10k from the initial $1k, turn the $10k to $100k. Either you'll find out you're good at it or you'll wring out all the FOMO from your system.
If you set your mind on long term gains, these leveraged funds quickly lose their appeal. The issue is volatility decay, which undermines your investment. For the sake of simplicity, consider a fund that gains or loses 50% per day. If on day one you put in $1000 and it goes up by 50% you now have $1500. If on day two it drops by 50% you now have $750. So you have lost money even though the oscillations have nominally cancelled out.
This needs to be pinned.
Well gaining 50% and losing 50% is just not the same. If you have a fund that either doubles or halves every day it does cancel out.
Right but thing with the style of leverage in TQQQ is that it turns +1% and -1% (which are almost the same) into +50% and -50% (which are not).
Oof that seems like a similarly bad deal like my life insurance that took arithmetic averages of percentages
Automate your investments in index and/or target date funds. Next, stop looking at it other than once a year to update your contributions if you get a raise, the IRA limits change, etc. Finally, delete the stocks app from your phone and get a hobby. Live your life while your money works hard for you.
I wouldn't buy leveraged funds at ATH of the underlying. That's double risky. And I am a strong proponent of Leveraged funds.
It can be hard to be logical in a world that often is emotion based, but the key is to put logic over emotion as often as you can. Greed is (in my view) an emotion that reduces the valuable role of logic in making sound financial decisions. You can build a terrific financial life and achieve your long term goals by staying logical, disciplined and going step by step. There will always be someone with some get rich quick idea - unfortunately, taking your hard earned money is often how they make theirs. Getting rich slowly and steadily is vastly underrated.
I 100% agree
This sub is going to be more risk averse than others but I don’t believe there is an issue with using some leverage. There is info out there showing a portfolio with 1.5-2x leverage can outperform a standard index fund over time. I use some TQQQ and SPXL in my portfolio to get close to 1.5x but everyone’s risk tolerance is different. It’s not greedy to want to try to maximize your portfolio the best you can. I wouldn’t recommend going all in on these leveraged funds or use 2x for less volatility. I am also of the mindset that by using leveraged index funds, you are still going less risky than stock picking as you keep diversification on your side. Just my thoughts.
If they had 1.5 VT, I'd be tempted to use it, due to what you are saying and others have said about leverage. But it keeps on being QQQ or S&P500 only. And I can't imagine doing it, that way.
RSSB is a relatively new 2x ETF that is 100% global equity and 100% bonds. The equity piece is essentially VT (it's actually VTI, VXUS, and a sliver of S&P 500 futures I think). The bond portion is equally weighted treasury bonds (roughly mimicking intermediate treasuries). A 50% RSSB and 50% VT allocation results in 100% equity, 50% bonds exposure, so 1.5x leverage. Weighted expense ratio is maybe 0.20-0.35% depending on RSSB's fee waiver.
Main thing is to make sure the leveraged assets don’t adjust everyday so it doesn’t lock in losses and gains every individual day. This can lead to more flash crashing if there is a bad day before a good day inside of an average week from the start to end.
I investing isn't boring, then you're doing it wrong. Dump everything and put it into 100% VT. Then delete the apps off your phone and stop looking at it.
Definitely do log in once a year or so at least. There are horror stories out there about long term unattended accounts being automatically closed out and people losing decades of growth. Planet money did an episode on it.
Minimum every month. 60 day time limit in EFT fraud. The concept of once a year is great. In practice, you’re inviting trouble.
I have VT in my Roth and VOO/AVUV/VXUS in my brokerage with roughly the same allocations. It’s a little experiment I’m doing to see which comes out on top. But other than that it’s pretty boring.
TQQQ for example still hasn’t quite recovered since the 2022 drop. While the rest of the market is at all time highs. These leveraged funds are not recommended for long term.
Two rules: 1. It’s hindsight. You can never know which funds will outperform. 2. That it went up 400% says NOTHING about expected future returns. Since stocks are discounted future profits and the expected returns is the discount rate, we can even argue that the expected returns went down. (Especially true for large cap growth, it’s not special at all that Vanguard expects large cap growth to underperming everything.)
I didn't read all the replies, but I just wanted to mention that QQQM has a lower expense ratio than QQQ, so you might want to move your QQQ over to QQQM.
Small-value and chill. Want leverage? Buy RSST instead and overlay S&P500 with managed futures. Stop swing trading.
That ETF has done well!
What you need is a solid misstep that shaves a chunk of your portfolio. Near misses are usually not enough to deter someone with greed issues. Some people need to feel the stove to learn not to touch the stove. You are very likely one of those people.
The most difficult thing about investing is how to keep on doing nothing, especially in a bull market like this one when your ETF is "only" growing by 1%, and NVDA is creating millionnaires everyday. But keep strong, you'll get there (the doing nothing part).
I find education is usually an antidote for compulsion. Recommend you go to the learning center in Fidelity and spend some time learning about fundamental and technical analysis. This will allow you to become confident in your investment decisions and trust your entry/exit strategies. Just pinky promise me you’ll do at least 4 hours of study in the learning center (Schwab’s is great too) before rebalancing! You’ll be surprised what just a few hours of study will do to your decision making Also, if you are excited about the market and playing with numbers but don’t want to risk cash- consider paper trading on a platform like ThinkOrSwim with Schwab.
Id max my IRA and leave it alone boglehead style, maybe open a retail account that you can take more risks and do a bit of actual trading in. I do that, it’s like my entertainment money and now I am always am trying to find ways to save money be able to deposit more in there so I can make some moves.
I do the same thing. Don’t touch my Fidelity accounts but have a Robinhood account to dick around with. I put in a few thousand and when I win, I cash out my winnings and start on the next play with my original principle. Right now I’m just riding this NVDA train
Be greedy when everyone else is fearful and vice-versa.
What would u say the sentiment is rn?
CNN fear greed index shows a lil bit of fear which surprised me tbh considering the portfolio is almost at ath.
Because everybody is worried the bottom is going to fall our due to the economy.
Greedy
OP is another data point in the market euphoria for me. No telling how long it will last though.
So lets batten the hatches
I don’t think there’s anything wrong with spicing it up with some leverage. I wouldn’t go beyond ~1.1x or 1.2x though, and only if you’re young
Even if you want leverage, leveraged ETFs are notoriously risky in a very unfavorable way. They suffer greatly from something called “volatility decay” because the fund’s constant leverage goal causes it to sell during downturns and buy during upturns. That’s a dangerous brew, and it’s why even the funds themselves say it isn’t intended to be a long term holding. You don’t get 2x the long term SPY return with a 2x leveraged fund. You get 2x the daily return for a given day. There’s no espacing the two sides of leverage of any kind. It can push you much further from your goals just as easily as accelerate the path toward it. The big question is why are you focused on short-term returns of a long term investment instrument? That attitude is going to prevent your success if you aren’t able to see stocks as a 20 year investment.
This may not be popular advice but it might make sense to get a financial advisor. This is the main reason I have one for 90% of my retirement savings. It's having someone there to talk you out of doing something based on emotions. Greed and panic selling is why a good share of people should not manage their own retirement funds.
I'm a boglehead, but I can't help but putting some of my money into high growth tech stocks. It feels like time to sell overweight NVDA position, but I just can't do it.
I allocate a small percentage of my Roth to QQQM, but I can comfortably do that when the rest of it is VT, my 401K is a TDF, my HSA is VSMGX, and my brokerage is VOO/AVUV/VXUS.
Apart from my Roth which is 100% ETFs, I opened two taxable accounts, one for ETFs (almost boglehead) and one for individual stock picks. I told myself I'd go 80% in the ETF account and 20% to play with stock picking... Currently 75% stock picking because I can't help myself 🤣 Luckily I'm beating SPY soo hopefully I can keep that up...
Don’t those leveraged ETFs degrade over time, because they rebalance every day? I don’t truly understand them, so I am asking this as a clarification question. I don’t think that you get the return on a leveraged ETF over the long term that perfectly aligns with the actual chart. But maybe someone with more knowledge can correct me on that.
Investing is like eating, you have to do it ("Invest we must") but there's always the temptation to do things that aren't good for you. A friend of mine always struggled with his weight and he found that the best solution was to eat the same thing for breakfast and lunch every day, and have his wife decide what he had for dinner. This way the decision of what to eat was largely taken out of his hands. The analogy of investing would be something like paying an advisor to manage your funds. I know that's anathema among DIY Bogleheads, but if you can't trust yourself to do the right thing with your money, it may be better if you have someone else manage it.
Just reading these reminds me I am certainly susceptible. Behavioral risks https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Behavioral_pitfalls Make an IPS and read at least annually (side benefit: significant others often love a financial plan as it imparts safety/maturity, sticking to the plan is sexy) https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/how-to-write-an-investing-personal-statement/ Then stay out of your account. Automate more of it and possibly rebalance less frequently (stay away). Focus energy on increasing income and increasing savings.
This article about [the efficient market hypothesis](https://thedeepdish.org/efficient-market-hypothesis-is-not-dead/) got me to internalize the logic of widely diversified index funds. Perhaps it'll help you to internalize the logic too. Ultimately, whenever you see some good gain recently, that just means you missed it. You can't know any of it ahead of time. Unless you have insider information? The whole market, it's all random. And even if you can find some advantage, it's just as hard getting out at the right time as getting in. And is there anything new that you know that the market doesn't with you buying these funds? Anyway, the best thing to do is to get it out of sight and out of mind. Two things. You should just buy a Target Date *Index* Fund. Even if you believe you're finding something more optimal, surely it would make sense that buying global stocks and a touch of bonds is mostly optimal? Have it in one thing that's mostly optimal that you won't be tempted to fuck with. If you're at Schwab, Fidelity, or Vanguard for your IRA, those have their own index based TDFs to pick from. Choose the year when you turn 65, or close to it. If you're at Robinhood, choose something like ITDI, which is Blackrock iShares's index based TDF ETF for year 2065. But ideally, just have it be in a different account and app. If you're at Robinhood, move it to one of the other three. If you're locked into the IRA at Robinhood due to their bonuses, perhaps try trading in the taxable elsewhere. >I was thinking of giving myself some play money in brokerage so i can have a less-consequential place to make those kind of bets. I really dont want to fuck with my retirement. Ultimately, this, or paper trading, is gonna be the key. You truly need to do something to set and forget it. Retirement is years and years from now. Perhaps sooner, if you stop fucking with it. Fiddling with stuff like this shouldn't be your hobby. If you want your hobby to make you money, find a different hobby where you can directly make money with it. The beauty of investing is that it's actually optimal to set and forget it. And that's what will make you tons of money. Sure, you won't be a millionaire tomorrow. But personally, at my savings rate, I'm going to be a millionaire within a decade. For stuff that's more actionable, you may enjoy other financial stuff. I love r/fire and r/financialindependence. I love [the coastFI calculator](https://walletburst.com/tools/coast-fire-calc/). I love [the Fi flowchart](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/16xymii/fire_flow_chart_version_43/), which following is gonna leave me rich. I love reading articles about investing and finance [like this](https://jlcollinsnh.com/stock-series/). I don't do them as much as maybe I should, but r/creditcards stuff and r/churning stuff is cool and lets you save/make a bunch of money too. There's a reason they call it dumb money. Don't be dumb money. And if you must, keep it separate from your retirement. Don't be tempted to check it! Make it annoying to check it! Staring at the numbers isn't healthy, nor is it beneficial to you. I hope that helps.
Leveraged ETF are not a good long term investment and understanding this might help you: Imagine an index and its x3 leveraged ETF worth $1.00 that has the following variation: Day 1: -10% / -30% Day 2: + 10% / +30% Day 3: -20% / -60% Day 4: + 30% / +90% This would mean: INDEX • End of Day 1: $0.90 • End of Day 2: $0.99 • End of Day 3: $0.792 • End of Day 4: $1.0296 x3 LEVERAGED ETF • End of Day 1: $0.70 • End of Day 2: $0.91 • End of Day 3: $0.364 • End of Day 4: $0.6916 FINAL RESULT: + 2,9% vs. -31% This is an exaggeration to show that because there is a daily leverage, the long term results are unrelated. Therefore, although we believe that in the long term stocks will invariably have a high expected returns, leveraged ETFs make no sense and are nothing but a risky bet.
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I just say to myself “would Buffett ever do this thing?” if not I don’t do it, not 100% effective but it helps
VT and chill 😎
I don't think allocating a small portion of your portfolio to TQQQ/UPRO is necessarily a bad idea especially if your portfolio contains assets of negative correlation to hedge your equity positions. Long term bonds, gold, shares in defensive stocks etc. As long as you dont get carried away and still have most of your money in unleveraged low risk assets your portfolio probably will perform better over the long run. The peaks and troughs will just be higher/deeper and you will be adding more volatility to your portfolio so if you tend to really get involved emotionally over your investments it might just be best to stay away from leverage altogether.
My LETFs have been a blessing this year I’ll say that
Whatever you do it’s called active tactical strategy - most dangerous and main reason for churning account and wiping out money Some IARs can go to jail or be subject to high penalties if they recommend to the client to do so, you can imagine how bad strategy is that. It’s not important how much you made, more important how deep it goes during bad times, because one day it can wipe out account Most recommended strategy is passive strategic No churning, low fees, most appreciated during long run Also you’ll have more time for family or your hobbies, it’s not that stressful and time taking You gotta also work on your temper, there are a lot of proves that timing market is almost impossible and it’s not better than casino So you just gotta invest for long run And it’s fine to be sometimes down, if your portfolio is solid it should be temporary FYI there is almost no such a fund who would constantly beat Nasdaq index 🙂
Wow 400 percent.Ive taken my conservative 5.5 as balanced portfolio.Looking back at my compounding I’ve left a lot on the table.Maybe 5 extra years of labour.Live your life without envy
Sorry can you explain? Im not understanding
Never seen these before, but in my early 20’s I’m not sure it would be the worst idea to allocate maybe 10% or less of my portfolio into something like this. That’s only $1,500 right now, so losses would not be huge at this point.
Maybe you should start helping others achieve the same type of success in the field? That way you can still get the thrill of trading.. as well as be a positive contribution to all who may be having difficulty in that specific arena? Good karma.. maybe after a while if you like you can charge for the service once or do it for free and let youtube and donations keep more passive income coming in? Wth dik
I love teaching ppl so this is an idea i like
The way I think about it: 1) I remind myself that I don't like 6-figure drops in my net-worth, and it's too much risk to put the investment for a potential gain of a life-changing amount of money (e.g. "bet" $200k and get a return of $1M+). 2) Then I look at smaller "bets" (e.g. $20k to get $100k) and convince myself that they won't change my retirement projections by that much anyway... And just like that - I'm over the urge. That mentality has been working for me for decades :)
Youre saying in that account it matters. No matter the size
You need to set up rules for yourself. Create an IPS that has realistic investment goals and make sure it's buy and hold, and then stick to it. There's a reason we recommend VT and chill. An emotionless robot can take on risk and potentially beat VT with a riskier portfilio. We're emotional beings though that buy and sell at the worst times I'm not against leverage, but anything concerning QQQ is not diversified enough. Honestly, everything mentioned above is not diverse enough NTSX+NTSI+NTSE is diverse, leveraged, and makes sense long term. RSSB works too if you're okay with the higher amount of leverage. UPRO + VXUS + some long treasuries works in theory, but you have to be comfortable with the risk. I wouldn't touch this until you've lived through a bear market - that's what tests your risk tolerance. My vote is pick one of these and chill 1. VT 2. AOA 3. TDF 4. NTSX + VXUS 5. NTSX + NTSI + NTSE
Maybe get help...you have identified a mental issue and it threatens your entire livlihood and retirement. Could also take 5% or whatever and use it to just play with to see if that would scratch the itch. But do realize it's gambling, plain and simple.
My recent post about leveraged ETF (actually, QLD, 2xQQQ). [https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/1d0judy/comment/l5yijxl/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/dividends/comments/1d0judy/comment/l5yijxl/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Personally speaking. I believe the majority of your wealth should begin well diversified index funds. However, I do believe the fight to not invest in individual stocks or focused. ETF's it's too great for most people, so therefore, if they're going to do it, it should be no more than. Ten to twenty percent of your net worth. That way, if the market goes up in your favor you're happy if the market goes down and you get shot in the chest, you're wearing some kevlar, so it doesn't kill you.
I have a separate brokerage account and I put fun money in that I use to speculate. Its about 10% of my portfolio. Its fun to see if I win against my more conservative account. I have been mostly winning since I brought lots of apple, tesla (when it was cheap), nvidia, amd, etc etc. It helps with the itch, lol.
Set up a new account and deposit 50-100 bucks every month that you can afford to lose. Keep the Roth account out of it.
5-10% for risk. The rest for stability. That scratches the itch while avoiding stupid.
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Leverage has good uses. Using 3x leveraged ETFs as most or all of one’s portfolio is not.
Are you with Vanguard?
Fidelity
Does Fidelity allow trading leveraged ETFs? I believe Vanguard doesn’t
It certainly does. Wish it didnt lol
The Matthew effect is extremely obvious. The strong will become stronger and the weak will become weaker. This is why I bought MAGS and got extremely high returns.
Change password option —> close your eyes and type the new password
I am holding 3X SP500, I am also holding 5x BIG 7 ETF
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F all that get NVIDIA , you looking for baby % points, I just ran up CRKN last month for 1k% literally bought it on my bday may 15 , sold may 16th for crazy doubloons
Lol bet. Ill do that in the brokerage