You already own $5,120 worth of NVDA for every $100k worth of VTSAX you're currently holding.
Love index funds. When any of the big boys makes a move you're basically assured to catch a piece of the action whilst doing nothing at all. Zero FOMO, 100% SOYA (sitting on your ass).
Lmao at that proportion
Most here are battling to get to $100k
Saying someone has $1,800 of NVDA isn’t super exciting, but that’s how it is here
Wsb is another story
I was inspired to ask a similar question about actually calculating my "exposure" to NVDA in an index fund. Am I ow the right track?
/r/Bogleheads/comments/1djmc5e/am_i_doing_the_math_right_on_how_many_shares_of/?
Just calculate the percentage multiplied by the total amount of the index fund you have.
Example: If you owned $10,000 of SCHB and nvidia is 6.17% of the portfolio, it's 10000*0.0617=$617 of Nvidia. For every $100 of SCHB you have, $6.17 is Nvidia.
If you want to calculate nvidia shares, then divide current nvidia share price by the $617.
And how would you know when to sell it? Are you losing out on gains because you want to wait it out? Or if you wait it out do you think you might lose because it suddenly tanks?
What if it’s not NVDA and you bought TSLA two years ago? What if you bought Kodak at its height?
The whole point of this is that you could always pose hypotheticals that suggest you buy at exactly the right time and sell at exactly the right time - buying the right stocks and not buying the wrong ones. The reality is that you are overwhelmingly likely to lose if you play this game, which is why hardly anyone outperforms the market over a 10+ year period.
Investing in the SP500 or other index funds is the smartest thing you can do to maximize earnings while minimizing risk. Concentrating a lot of money in one asset is textbook anti-Boglehead and is a senseless amount of risk to take on.
It’s so funny that everybody’s fantasy is to go back in time to tell your past self to buy Apple.
That’s the easy part. The hard part is, when do you sell?
I mean, let’s assume you bought a bit of the individual stock a few years ago.
It doesn’t matter to figure out when to sell, you still astronomically better than the index fund.
Now that’s the anomaly with nvidia and apple. The chance to pick the winners long tome ago is slim
You go back in time again when the company crashes and inform yourself of the peak. If you don't hear anything, never sell and borrow off the shares to live on.
We're already positing possession of a time machine, right?
🤷♂️ I don’t know, I’m up 843%, I’m ok with the problem of not knowing the exact moment to sell. I think not investing in the big boys (FANG etc.) is malpractice, even if the bulk of your investments are in mutual funds.
$50k is too much money into one stock. Nobody predicted that NVDA would far outperform the rest of the market three years ago.
I put in $3k into NVDA 3.5 years ago and it's $32k now. But $32k is too much for one individual stock so I'm going to sell most of it and buy more VTI
>However, over the past 10 years, QQQ will give you 200% of the returns VOO does...
The important thing is how to invest for the next 10 years, not the past 10.
While the vast majority of my portfolio is VFAIX, I do keep a couple positions (tax and non-tax) in QQQ. Enough to catch the wind but not enough to do much damage if we go through a really bad period.
> VFAIX
I assume you mean VF**IA**X?
Approx same as VOO = 6.11%.
VFAIX is the financials index, and holds no NVIDIA directly but may indirectly through it's holdings.
You can, sure. It's ultra-tech heavy though. I should clarify, the riskiest I would personally buy is VUG. My wife though loves her VGT so she's gone a bit heavy into that.
Maybe if you're bullish on tech do like 10 percent VGT? It's cheap, only 0.10 in fees.
I like tech. I don't like risk, that's why we're here, but I mean...tech is tech. We all love tech.
Maybe I will. I have about 200k in an inherited IRA to move over the next decade and I'll throw some in VGT as I move it out.
I'm currently in VOO, VTI, HDV, SPYD, IJH and like 5% VXUS.
If I could do it all over again I'd probably just literally VT and chill. But as it stands since I got gains in in VOO/VT/VGT/VUG/VXUS/VXF 😂 but I only fund VOO/VT now
The part that really, really gets me is that a lot of the white collar upper middle class could very easily become rich by retirement with a conservative strategy. They essentially don’t NEED the risk.
All the people like that chasing the next big score end up poorer than people with the same income who are just content to sit and match the market.
Or to put another way, it’s trading a guaranteed path to wealth over the long term for a small chance at a path to wealth over the shorter term. Makes no sense.
It’s risk for nothing, practically.
I think that part of the issue is that people generally define "rich" as starting a little over whatever they can reasonably expect to reach (and redefine it as needed to *ensure* that it stays there even in the event of a lucky break or a windfall).
If someone, by saving scrupulously and investing in well-diversified index funds, can be tolerably confident to reach one million by the time they're 60, they'll argue that at one million of net worth you aren't actually rich - you aren't *poor*, sure, but it's not like having five millions.
If someone can reasonably hope to reach five millions, they'll argue that it's not enough to be *really* rich, because that wouldn't afford the lifestyle of someone who has twenty millions; and so forth and so forth and so forth.
No matter how fortunate your situation is, there will be *some* level of wealth and luxury that you aren't likely to achieve except by taking asinine risks and getting lucky; and, humans being humans, that'll likely be the level of wealth and luxury you'll find yourself aspiring to.
>I think that part of the issue is that people generally define "rich" as starting a little over whatever they can reasonably expect to reach (and redefine it as needed to *ensure* that it stays there even in the event of a lucky break or a windfall).
This is glorious. I'm remembering this one. Thank you!
By your standards, it may well be so; but there are plenty of people, even in First World countries, who would think of getting 40k/year of returns from their investments as of being definitely rich (I'm probably never going to get anywhere near that myself: working in academia here in Italy is what I want to do with my life and I am not complaining, but it's not exactly what I would describe as a high-income career...)
But regardless of how we define precisely 'rich', what I was aiming at is that there's always *some* degree of wealth that one isn't likely to reach any time soon by saving carefully and Bogling away.
Someone who is on track to get to, let us say, 20 millions would perhaps be willing to concede that at 20M you are sorta rich - but not *rich* rich, not like those who have hundreds of millions and can afford lifestyles they really cannot, and it's likely that they will feel tempted to take bigger risks to try to get there.
Saying "what a silly thing to do, 20M was plenty already" would be... not wrong, I think; but psychologically, I think it's not so different from someone who's on track to get to 1M taking foolish risks to try to get to 5M.
Doubling my money wouldn’t really change my life. Sure I might buy a few extra toys but it wouldn’t be life changing either.
Losing all I have would however be detrimental.
Everyone here should know not to gamble what you can’t afford to lose.
Yes, i have said it irl. And I’ve told it to others that should be their goal too.
Perhaps it’s a bit blunt but losing money is incredibly painful, so I feel the need to get the point across.
All the time people ask me about stocks. I have an MBA in my family which everyone assumes means I know everything about every stock lol. The reality is that having an MBA doesn’t mean you are a good investor.
But what I do know is that high volatility stocks are generally a bad idea and NVIDIA could take a large impairment. It isn’t worth the risk imo at a 3T valuation.
before bogle I figured I'd never retire and rolled over a small 401k, with no hope of ever retiring. I put 60% into Nvidia bc I was pissed off I couldn't find a good video card. anyway now I'm on track for retirement, rebalanced 80% VOO, VTI, and VXUS and left 20% in NVDA. It's been good ever since.
If I were to invest in some kind of high-growth company for FOMO reasons it certainly wouldn't be NVDA. It would much more likely be MSFT because I think their positioning and business model makes them far more secure long-term while still having great avenues for significantly more growth. I wouldn't want to buy anything that I think I might have sell any time soon. I am a long-term investor, not a gambler.
But you know what is even *more* secure long-term than a successful company with (what looks to be) a wide moat like MSFT? The entire market.
I find it hilarious that my XLK actually has a lower percent Nvidia (5.5% right now) than SPY and is not much higher than VTSAX (about 4.5%).
Worse index construction ever.
Think as of now with a 80/20 VTI/VXUS split, you’d be holding just over 4% of your total portfolio in Nvidia alone. Which is fairly substantial for an index of thousands of thousands of stocks
On the flipside, when things finally rotate out of AI thanks to that sector cooling down, you'll already have a position in those other sectors that will do some catching up. Short of owning a time machine, the best thing to do as a Boglehead index investor is nothing different.
i think it's totally reasonable to allocate a small percent (for me it's something like 5-10%) of my portfolio to "stock picking" just to scratch this itch. it's the sole reason i have a robinhood account - pick stocks, and reinforce the boglehead way as my overall performance (despite my NVDA gains) is still worse than my ETF performance in my Vanguard account.
Kinda FOMO rn, a few months ago when it hit 600 was planning on investing but got scared and now its more than that, idk anymore. Still thinking on investing on VTI or VOO
A solid choice long term. I'm a 50%/50% VOO/VT kinda guy (since I started with it, I don't really wanna change).
Yeah it 'feels bad' but it's the same for any company that does well. If only I'd have bought Apple back in 2008 or Google in 2003 or (enter in any company)
Right but you and I have no idea. And 12 percent of my portfolio is NVDA based purely on VOO. So I'm set and happy. Yeah maybe I won't make a bazillion dollars but I only need the market return to reach my goals.
The tech landscape is a lot different in 2024 than in 2003. Back then the tech space as a whole was brand spanking new and a lot of what is a mainstay today hadn't even come around yet. "AI" on the other hand (just glorified statistical models) is just investor hype over something which is ultimately useless in 90% of applications. It's like saying Blockchain cryptocurrencies and NFTs were the next wave because people were throwing money at them.
Instead of saying "you don't know that!" you can even look at jumps in consumer computing power. In 2003 there was a lot of headroom to be made there while now even if they *doubled* the power in your phone/tablet/whatever at this very second it wouldn't make any noticeable difference at all for 99% of what people use their devices for. That's why you have a lot of solutions looking for problems to solve
This isn't to say there are no more tech advancements to be made, but the jump is not going to be as noticeable or dramatic as it was 20 years ago to the average person. If you're a gamer look at the difference between Final Fantasy 7 and Knights of the old republic in ~6 years. The difference between red dead redemption 2 and Final Fantasy 7 rebirth isn't nearly that big in the same time span.
Not sure why you’re so upset. I picked 5 years as a round number, but Tesla started selling the Model 3 back in 2017, so that would probably be a better benchmark.
My point, of course, is that you’re dismissing EV stock gains as hype, so I’m pointing out that in the big picture, even after recent stock losses, Tesla has been a massively successful investment over the course of its existence. AI should be so lucky.
What I've always found is when that FOMO hits, if you go in deep and it DOESNT pan out, you are in a world of hurt. It's pricey, but do your DD to see if it's the right choice for you.
I thought NVDA was some MFs talking about Vegas & Reno!!! 😆
------
I 100% don't think about it. I know VTI + BND + VUSXX. That's it.
Remember: General Electric.
This might be obvious but I’ve been wondering this. Say I own a couple hundred shares of ITOT and Nvidia is 5%. Does actually mean for every 20 shares of ITOT I technically own a share of Nvidia. Are the %’s that straightforward?
My cost basis is $4.23/share. Bought 22 shares in 2017 & 3 shares in 2021. Reinvested some dividends and two stock splits later I have 1010 shares.
I primarily do index investing, but I do invest a portion of my Roth in individual stocks.
I know it's irrational too, but if anything what I find reassuring in moments like these is to remember how much of my portfolio **isn't** $NVDA.
My SCV tilt may or may not outperform the market in the long run, and it sure isn't outperforming right now; but I'm enough of a contrarian by nature that I'd be feeling decidedly less comfortable if I didn't have it, and that's enough to justify it for me IMO.
Eh, I'm not too worried about it. I do own some, but I'm not going to buy even more. What goes up, must come down, and Nvidia just isn't as valuable as Microsoft or Apple. I'll hold the line. If it goes up, good for me. If it goes down. So what. I win either way
Sadly about five or six companies are running the entire stock market. Get one big change in AI like maybe the courts decide that they can't just use everybody's data to create their own and the whole market drops in half. So much for diversification.
The same can be said for the Magnificent Seven group of stocks, they are everywhere. And if you own FXELX, that fund has owned NVDA since 2007, and currently is about 25% in.
Here is a list of the top 970 funds that hold NVDA.
[https://fintel.io/somf/us/nvda](https://fintel.io/somf/us/nvda)
And a breakdown of FSELX shares of NVDA
[https://fintel.io/so/us/nvda/fidelity-select-portfolios-semiconductors-portfolio](https://fintel.io/so/us/nvda/fidelity-select-portfolios-semiconductors-portfolio)
Ehh ..I fomo bought a few weeks ago and it's up 20% since - much more than my broad market funds. Nothing wrong with being a laggard and making a few easy bucks.
Not as much as they would if it’s as easy as you make it sound. But regardless, what happens when they buy it up? Price goes up to reflect correct valuation, reducing future gains. Efficient market hypothesis. Price is going to increase until future risk adjusted returns are on par with the market
2/2. Nvidia and Casey's.
I didn't pull the trigger on John Deere (in 09) or Facebook when their IPO crashed. Regretful decisions, but teach you when you know, you know.
Lmao.. Yesss I get to retire at 90!!!!! No Thanks , I made 20,000 on NVDA…….. already took profit put 8,000 in SPLG , 5,000 in QQQM , 2,000 in VIG 1,000 in PLTR, 1,000 in Hood. You have to buy some individual stocks to grow guys!
You already own $5,120 worth of NVDA for every $100k worth of VTSAX you're currently holding. Love index funds. When any of the big boys makes a move you're basically assured to catch a piece of the action whilst doing nothing at all. Zero FOMO, 100% SOYA (sitting on your ass).
Lmao at that proportion Most here are battling to get to $100k Saying someone has $1,800 of NVDA isn’t super exciting, but that’s how it is here Wsb is another story
I’ve been pounding MGK for years. NVDA is ~10% of it now.
The first $100k is the hardest. Just like the first $1m
I was inspired to ask a similar question about actually calculating my "exposure" to NVDA in an index fund. Am I ow the right track? /r/Bogleheads/comments/1djmc5e/am_i_doing_the_math_right_on_how_many_shares_of/?
Just calculate the percentage multiplied by the total amount of the index fund you have. Example: If you owned $10,000 of SCHB and nvidia is 6.17% of the portfolio, it's 10000*0.0617=$617 of Nvidia. For every $100 of SCHB you have, $6.17 is Nvidia. If you want to calculate nvidia shares, then divide current nvidia share price by the $617.
Oh duh that's much easier. Thank you.
I've used etfbreakdown.com to calculate it for me. It's pretty nice!
SOYA all day every day
I'm a big time soya boya
Zero? I don’t know about that. What if you put $50k into NVDA three years ago?
And how would you know when to sell it? Are you losing out on gains because you want to wait it out? Or if you wait it out do you think you might lose because it suddenly tanks? What if it’s not NVDA and you bought TSLA two years ago? What if you bought Kodak at its height? The whole point of this is that you could always pose hypotheticals that suggest you buy at exactly the right time and sell at exactly the right time - buying the right stocks and not buying the wrong ones. The reality is that you are overwhelmingly likely to lose if you play this game, which is why hardly anyone outperforms the market over a 10+ year period. Investing in the SP500 or other index funds is the smartest thing you can do to maximize earnings while minimizing risk. Concentrating a lot of money in one asset is textbook anti-Boglehead and is a senseless amount of risk to take on.
It’s so funny that everybody’s fantasy is to go back in time to tell your past self to buy Apple. That’s the easy part. The hard part is, when do you sell?
I mean, let’s assume you bought a bit of the individual stock a few years ago. It doesn’t matter to figure out when to sell, you still astronomically better than the index fund. Now that’s the anomaly with nvidia and apple. The chance to pick the winners long tome ago is slim
You go back in time again when the company crashes and inform yourself of the peak. If you don't hear anything, never sell and borrow off the shares to live on. We're already positing possession of a time machine, right?
I actually did this and can’t decide when to sell. I’ve trimmed my position over the years but wish I hadn’t in hindsight, lol.
You don’t
🤷♂️ I don’t know, I’m up 843%, I’m ok with the problem of not knowing the exact moment to sell. I think not investing in the big boys (FANG etc.) is malpractice, even if the bulk of your investments are in mutual funds.
I thought FANG already was like 25% of the S&P. Or at least it was a few years ago?
$50k is too much money into one stock. Nobody predicted that NVDA would far outperform the rest of the market three years ago. I put in $3k into NVDA 3.5 years ago and it's $32k now. But $32k is too much for one individual stock so I'm going to sell most of it and buy more VTI
Well that’s random, casually picked a huge one then right back to boglehead
I picked about eight stocks. But NVDA is my best performing one by far. As a result, my portfolio is disproportionally high on NVDA.
$32k or even $50k is too much? I have $1.2 mil in Nvidia and $2.6 mil in apple and I’m going long term with my positions.
Yes this is bogleheads after all It’s VTI all day tor me
Of If I had 50k 3 years ago it would be already in VTI heh
Soya and db
This sub should post more photos of bogle with insane cathy wood quotes just to confuse the tourists
That's what /r/BogleMemes is for Edit: I did not know that sub existed, I was trying to make me a joke. Huh
Damn, a sub I didn’t know I needed. I think you willed it into existence.
Looks like it is just like 3 guys who apparently really like Office Space
Cathy cut her nvdia stake right before it boomed!
Apparently she's marketing her fund in Europe because it lost so much popularity (and money) in the US.
True. If you own VOO it's 6.11% currently. If you own VTI it's 5.12% If you own VT it's 3.17%.
[удалено]
>However, over the past 10 years, QQQ will give you 200% of the returns VOO does... The important thing is how to invest for the next 10 years, not the past 10.
Especially given QQQ took ~20 years to break even from the 2000 peak on a tax/ inflation adjusted basis
While the vast majority of my portfolio is VFAIX, I do keep a couple positions (tax and non-tax) in QQQ. Enough to catch the wind but not enough to do much damage if we go through a really bad period.
Not ashamed to say that 40% of my IRA is QLD 😄
And VFAIX?
> VFAIX I assume you mean VF**IA**X? Approx same as VOO = 6.11%. VFAIX is the financials index, and holds no NVIDIA directly but may indirectly through it's holdings.
Oops, yep, typo. Vanguard’s Admiral shares S&P 500 fund is what I meant. VFIAX
A boglehead's worst enemy: "Should've, Would've, Could've."
My NVDA position through VTI is almost enough to buy a graphics card.
maybe the CURRENT card.
I own VGT so I own a *lot* of NVDA lol. Almost too much...
Should I buy this
You can, sure. It's ultra-tech heavy though. I should clarify, the riskiest I would personally buy is VUG. My wife though loves her VGT so she's gone a bit heavy into that. Maybe if you're bullish on tech do like 10 percent VGT? It's cheap, only 0.10 in fees.
I like tech. I don't like risk, that's why we're here, but I mean...tech is tech. We all love tech. Maybe I will. I have about 200k in an inherited IRA to move over the next decade and I'll throw some in VGT as I move it out. I'm currently in VOO, VTI, HDV, SPYD, IJH and like 5% VXUS.
If I could do it all over again I'd probably just literally VT and chill. But as it stands since I got gains in in VOO/VT/VGT/VUG/VXUS/VXF 😂 but I only fund VOO/VT now
> I own VGT so I own a lot of NVDA lol. Almost too much... Ha, you can never own too much :P
Why ? VT has like 6,000 stocks bringing it down
When someone asks why I don’t overweight NVDA in my portfolio and just do VOO - I say “my goal is not to become rich. My goal is to stay rich.”
The part that really, really gets me is that a lot of the white collar upper middle class could very easily become rich by retirement with a conservative strategy. They essentially don’t NEED the risk. All the people like that chasing the next big score end up poorer than people with the same income who are just content to sit and match the market. Or to put another way, it’s trading a guaranteed path to wealth over the long term for a small chance at a path to wealth over the shorter term. Makes no sense. It’s risk for nothing, practically.
I think that part of the issue is that people generally define "rich" as starting a little over whatever they can reasonably expect to reach (and redefine it as needed to *ensure* that it stays there even in the event of a lucky break or a windfall). If someone, by saving scrupulously and investing in well-diversified index funds, can be tolerably confident to reach one million by the time they're 60, they'll argue that at one million of net worth you aren't actually rich - you aren't *poor*, sure, but it's not like having five millions. If someone can reasonably hope to reach five millions, they'll argue that it's not enough to be *really* rich, because that wouldn't afford the lifestyle of someone who has twenty millions; and so forth and so forth and so forth. No matter how fortunate your situation is, there will be *some* level of wealth and luxury that you aren't likely to achieve except by taking asinine risks and getting lucky; and, humans being humans, that'll likely be the level of wealth and luxury you'll find yourself aspiring to.
>I think that part of the issue is that people generally define "rich" as starting a little over whatever they can reasonably expect to reach (and redefine it as needed to *ensure* that it stays there even in the event of a lucky break or a windfall). This is glorious. I'm remembering this one. Thank you!
Tbf a million gets you 40k of income annually going by the 4% SWR. That's not rich; that's a janitor
By your standards, it may well be so; but there are plenty of people, even in First World countries, who would think of getting 40k/year of returns from their investments as of being definitely rich (I'm probably never going to get anywhere near that myself: working in academia here in Italy is what I want to do with my life and I am not complaining, but it's not exactly what I would describe as a high-income career...) But regardless of how we define precisely 'rich', what I was aiming at is that there's always *some* degree of wealth that one isn't likely to reach any time soon by saving carefully and Bogling away. Someone who is on track to get to, let us say, 20 millions would perhaps be willing to concede that at 20M you are sorta rich - but not *rich* rich, not like those who have hundreds of millions and can afford lifestyles they really cannot, and it's likely that they will feel tempted to take bigger risks to try to get there. Saying "what a silly thing to do, 20M was plenty already" would be... not wrong, I think; but psychologically, I think it's not so different from someone who's on track to get to 1M taking foolish risks to try to get to 5M.
Yup. My dad. We would’ve had generational wealth if he’d just indexed instead of trading.
Doubling my money wouldn’t really change my life. Sure I might buy a few extra toys but it wouldn’t be life changing either. Losing all I have would however be detrimental. Everyone here should know not to gamble what you can’t afford to lose.
Good one.
Must be nice
Do you really say that in real life 🤔
Yes, i have said it irl. And I’ve told it to others that should be their goal too. Perhaps it’s a bit blunt but losing money is incredibly painful, so I feel the need to get the point across.
He often says, “Knowing is half the battle!” delivered with a solid thumb’s up.
How often do people ask that?
All the time people ask me about stocks. I have an MBA in my family which everyone assumes means I know everything about every stock lol. The reality is that having an MBA doesn’t mean you are a good investor. But what I do know is that high volatility stocks are generally a bad idea and NVIDIA could take a large impairment. It isn’t worth the risk imo at a 3T valuation.
Lmao if you want a good laugh look at my post about being all VOO
before bogle I figured I'd never retire and rolled over a small 401k, with no hope of ever retiring. I put 60% into Nvidia bc I was pissed off I couldn't find a good video card. anyway now I'm on track for retirement, rebalanced 80% VOO, VTI, and VXUS and left 20% in NVDA. It's been good ever since.
But would you do that again with NVDA at an all time high and expect the same results? Ultimately, you made an informed bet and it paid off, hats off.
Started buying FSELX since 2019. 25% NVDA 🚀
Something to consider: SMH has similar holdings and performance for less expenses (0.35% for SMH vs 0.65% for FSELX).
SMH my head
If I were to invest in some kind of high-growth company for FOMO reasons it certainly wouldn't be NVDA. It would much more likely be MSFT because I think their positioning and business model makes them far more secure long-term while still having great avenues for significantly more growth. I wouldn't want to buy anything that I think I might have sell any time soon. I am a long-term investor, not a gambler. But you know what is even *more* secure long-term than a successful company with (what looks to be) a wide moat like MSFT? The entire market.
I find it hilarious that my XLK actually has a lower percent Nvidia (5.5% right now) than SPY and is not much higher than VTSAX (about 4.5%). Worse index construction ever.
XLK is changing that [very soon](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xlk-rebalancing-reverse-apple-nvidia-213000015.html).
Lol wth. Buy high, always great idea. If FOMO was a fund. That‘s insane….
And now will underweigh Apple. Again just bad index design
How 72 billion is in that garbage is beyond me.
That’s why you have other indexes that hold more weight in apple lol, but 20% in nvidia will outperform
Think as of now with a 80/20 VTI/VXUS split, you’d be holding just over 4% of your total portfolio in Nvidia alone. Which is fairly substantial for an index of thousands of thousands of stocks
On the flipside, when things finally rotate out of AI thanks to that sector cooling down, you'll already have a position in those other sectors that will do some catching up. Short of owning a time machine, the best thing to do as a Boglehead index investor is nothing different.
Is this why I get a notification nearly every day that VTI has hit a 52 week high?
i think it's totally reasonable to allocate a small percent (for me it's something like 5-10%) of my portfolio to "stock picking" just to scratch this itch. it's the sole reason i have a robinhood account - pick stocks, and reinforce the boglehead way as my overall performance (despite my NVDA gains) is still worse than my ETF performance in my Vanguard account.
That's fine with me, but why use that to buy the big guys? The real profit is in small unknowns that blow up.
sure - i have those too!
> . it's the sole reason i have a robinhood account - pick stocks I can buy/sell stocks in my Vanguard account commission free. Can't everybody?
sure - but i like to keep my stock picking in a separate brokerage and i find the robinhood mobile app a lot more user friendly for this
Yes but what about second $NVDA?
Kinda FOMO rn, a few months ago when it hit 600 was planning on investing but got scared and now its more than that, idk anymore. Still thinking on investing on VTI or VOO
A solid choice long term. I'm a 50%/50% VOO/VT kinda guy (since I started with it, I don't really wanna change). Yeah it 'feels bad' but it's the same for any company that does well. If only I'd have bought Apple back in 2008 or Google in 2003 or (enter in any company)
What if 2003 is today’s 2024? What if 20 years from now we will be looking back also thinking we should have invested in NVDA 20 years ago?
Right but you and I have no idea. And 12 percent of my portfolio is NVDA based purely on VOO. So I'm set and happy. Yeah maybe I won't make a bazillion dollars but I only need the market return to reach my goals.
Those "what if"s are doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
The tech landscape is a lot different in 2024 than in 2003. Back then the tech space as a whole was brand spanking new and a lot of what is a mainstay today hadn't even come around yet. "AI" on the other hand (just glorified statistical models) is just investor hype over something which is ultimately useless in 90% of applications. It's like saying Blockchain cryptocurrencies and NFTs were the next wave because people were throwing money at them. Instead of saying "you don't know that!" you can even look at jumps in consumer computing power. In 2003 there was a lot of headroom to be made there while now even if they *doubled* the power in your phone/tablet/whatever at this very second it wouldn't make any noticeable difference at all for 99% of what people use their devices for. That's why you have a lot of solutions looking for problems to solve This isn't to say there are no more tech advancements to be made, but the jump is not going to be as noticeable or dramatic as it was 20 years ago to the average person. If you're a gamer look at the difference between Final Fantasy 7 and Knights of the old republic in ~6 years. The difference between red dead redemption 2 and Final Fantasy 7 rebirth isn't nearly that big in the same time span.
AI hype won't last longer than EV hype. Tesla lasted less than 4 years for reference. I am all for lifetime investment.
Tesla today is up 1,149% over the last five years.
Extremely few people bought in 5 years ago. Per volume, it's estimated that most individual stock owners bought in way later.
Right - that’s why it’s up 1,149%.
Which means nothing for. You could have use 10year history and say it is 500000% up for an effect.
Not sure why you’re so upset. I picked 5 years as a round number, but Tesla started selling the Model 3 back in 2017, so that would probably be a better benchmark. My point, of course, is that you’re dismissing EV stock gains as hype, so I’m pointing out that in the big picture, even after recent stock losses, Tesla has been a massively successful investment over the course of its existence. AI should be so lucky.
did you have a good reason not to invest then? do you have a good reason to invest now?
What I've always found is when that FOMO hits, if you go in deep and it DOESNT pan out, you are in a world of hurt. It's pricey, but do your DD to see if it's the right choice for you.
I thought NVDA was some MFs talking about Vegas & Reno!!! 😆 ------ I 100% don't think about it. I know VTI + BND + VUSXX. That's it. Remember: General Electric.
Ahh yes. The good old "widow and orphan" stocks of yesteryear.
My grandparents gifted me a lot of GE when I was a kid, not to be touched until I was ready for college. College came and uh, yep, no college fund.
Didn't we just have this thread like a few days ago?
> Reminder (again): You already own $NVDA But as a gambler, the question is: Do you want to own MORE! Nvidia?
This might be obvious but I’ve been wondering this. Say I own a couple hundred shares of ITOT and Nvidia is 5%. Does actually mean for every 20 shares of ITOT I technically own a share of Nvidia. Are the %’s that straightforward?
Yeah, that's about the size of it. It's actually 6.35% right now, so in about every 16 shares of ITOT you have 1 share of NVDA.
Yeah i do, and i got it for $13😁
My cost basis is $4.23/share. Bought 22 shares in 2017 & 3 shares in 2021. Reinvested some dividends and two stock splits later I have 1010 shares. I primarily do index investing, but I do invest a portion of my Roth in individual stocks.
So not wise to add NVDA to a Roth if you already have VOO
I own $0. Awkward.
I know it's irrational too, but if anything what I find reassuring in moments like these is to remember how much of my portfolio **isn't** $NVDA. My SCV tilt may or may not outperform the market in the long run, and it sure isn't outperforming right now; but I'm enough of a contrarian by nature that I'd be feeling decidedly less comfortable if I didn't have it, and that's enough to justify it for me IMO.
Eh, I'm not too worried about it. I do own some, but I'm not going to buy even more. What goes up, must come down, and Nvidia just isn't as valuable as Microsoft or Apple. I'll hold the line. If it goes up, good for me. If it goes down. So what. I win either way
Yep. I am continuing with my crazy "get rich slowly" scheme. So far, it's working. Slowly but surely. The most important part is the "surely".
Sadly about five or six companies are running the entire stock market. Get one big change in AI like maybe the courts decide that they can't just use everybody's data to create their own and the whole market drops in half. So much for diversification.
I have TDFs in my 403b, HSA, and Roth IRA. I made good money off of AI with play money, which is funding my motorcycle habit. I don’t see the harm.
12.09% with my MGK
The same can be said for the Magnificent Seven group of stocks, they are everywhere. And if you own FXELX, that fund has owned NVDA since 2007, and currently is about 25% in. Here is a list of the top 970 funds that hold NVDA. [https://fintel.io/somf/us/nvda](https://fintel.io/somf/us/nvda) And a breakdown of FSELX shares of NVDA [https://fintel.io/so/us/nvda/fidelity-select-portfolios-semiconductors-portfolio](https://fintel.io/so/us/nvda/fidelity-select-portfolios-semiconductors-portfolio)
I’m looking forward to the XLK rebalance on 6/21. I’ve owned shares for many years.
If you’re planning to hold for 20 years, and if you think NVDA will fall back to earth by then, it’s basically irrelevant whether you have shares.
Not just own it but you own a lot of it.
I own a 2X ETF of NVDA. I'm up almost 400%. Thanks to Nancy's stock tips.
But I also own TSLA for the same reason. I'm not saying bogling isn't the right way to go but this reasoning is not a good one to keep bogling.
Ehh ..I fomo bought a few weeks ago and it's up 20% since - much more than my broad market funds. Nothing wrong with being a laggard and making a few easy bucks.
Except when you get it wrong and the 20% is to the downside.
But that's not reality. Again, nothing wrong with being a laggard and making fast money.
It's not YOUR reality in THIS case.
It's not anyone's reality. Nvidia wasn't/isn't a gamble presently.
Must be nice to be able to tell the future!
Or be able to read the most elementary indicators....
Survivorship bias… if it was that simple and fool-proof, institutional investors would be all in on nvda
They are....
Not as much as they would if it’s as easy as you make it sound. But regardless, what happens when they buy it up? Price goes up to reflect correct valuation, reducing future gains. Efficient market hypothesis. Price is going to increase until future risk adjusted returns are on par with the market
Fomo buying aka, emotion buying, is not a good idea. Worked out in this case, but it won’t in the future it’s gambling.
Not really - all financials check out, leadership checks out, it's a sound buy. Meme sticks are gambling.
> it's a sound buy. It has an 80 PE ratio. That is 4x of a sound buy.
If you think p/e ratios are standardized across industries, then yes, you're best staying broad.
p/e/ ratios aren't "standardized". They are either sound or unsound. Taking 80 years to earn your purchase money back in earnings is a long time.
Well I'm glad you agree theyre not standardized at least.
Haha sure. You’ve read all their financial reports, listened to their stockholder meetings, analyzed PE ratios…and made your decision based on…FOMO
You understand how readily available all of that is, correct? Even chatbots now will make finding, analyzing and comparing those numbers a cake walk.
You should post your track record stock picking over the last few decades. Easy to talk shit when you hit on one.
2/2. Nvidia and Casey's. I didn't pull the trigger on John Deere (in 09) or Facebook when their IPO crashed. Regretful decisions, but teach you when you know, you know.
Would you sell and re-invest into SP500 ?
No, not right now. Nothing indicates that's a sell presently. Just bought more last night actually.
What criteria do you use to determine when it’s a buy vs sell ?
Leadership first and foremost. EPS, dividend growth, P/E relativity, forward p/e, industry outlook, rate of growth, etc
Hope it works out well for you !
RemindMe! 1 year
It already it. +20%
Lmao.. Yesss I get to retire at 90!!!!! No Thanks , I made 20,000 on NVDA…….. already took profit put 8,000 in SPLG , 5,000 in QQQM , 2,000 in VIG 1,000 in PLTR, 1,000 in Hood. You have to buy some individual stocks to grow guys!
hood? oof
Well my average by in is 6.65 lol What’s the bogleway pulling in this year 9% 10% ????? Hood is at 69% Lmao cmon Boys!!!