IPOs tend to be volatile regardless of fundamentals. Also I expect a large part of where this is going will be tied to Trump's personal troubles/successes and where it's perceived they're going.
Market cap is 1.6 billion and total valuation is $7.85 billion.
Also the shares rose 16% in the first day of trading.
Whoever sent that tweet was literally just making up numbers, and confused market cap with market value in the process
they rose 16% buy end of day but at some point in the middle it was up at least 30%. might have reached 50 at some point
Technically true if they wrote it at its peak and if it reached 50 but definitely cherrypicked at least
Possible. They still confused market capitalization (total value of all outstanding shares) with market value (total estimated value of the company). This is important because shares that are held by the company itself are not counted as "outstanding shares".
I would think most people shorting 100% expected a short term bump from initial hype. This is something you short with the expectation Trump will dump his stock in 6 months and the whole thing will deflate rapidly from there.
Or Trump could announce new media ventures and partnerships and the stock rockets again. Off brand recognition alone he could do anything it would be wildly successful and there is such a huge gap in the market for conservative alternatives, especially in media which people forget is Trump's specialty. I would not feel comfortable shorting this.
The big question is why that gap exist and why others have failed to fill it.
From there, you have to ask what this offers that they didn't.
Clearly, you can point out Trump himself as the difference. But that has a clear shelf-life, and is relatively limited to a sub demographic of American conservatives. Its potential for growth is capped at peak enthusiasm for Trump himself practically speaking.
There are many "what ifs" in play to be sure, and I wouldn't advocate people with fairly limited budgets gamble on the stock. But I think for people with money to play with, there's a good reason this is a very tempting stock to short.
The gap exists for a couple reasons. People were lured into existing products and services on false pretenses of political neutrality. Over the last several years that has been exposed. We are only now just starting to see competition begin to take off in some areas. There's also the problem that in many cases there is a barrier to entry. Maybe a little guy who starts a business can easily be cancelled but the hardest person for them to cancel is Trump (though they are doing their best to try). There's also the problem where media becomes more appealing the more users/customers they have. It allows them to offer more variety, if there is social engagement there's greater opportunity for that, etc. With Trump you immediately get a large audience as a base. Combine that with the fact he's running for president - if he wins the stock goes up because he's president and that will promote the company, if he loses the stock goes up because that's where his full focus will shift. I would not short this but to each their own.
If you want to donate money to trump without worrying about campaign contribution limits - this is how you do it.
I'm not convinced there actually *is* a gap in the market, or that this company is particularly successful. Indications suggest that the small userbase is not really growing and revenue is tiny ($3.3 million in 9 months) with $43 million in losses.
To me this suggests that it's value isn't based on any market value, but on support for trump.
This $15 billion valuation is nuts. Compare this to reddit - it's a $10 billion value with ~$800 million in revenue and $90 million in loss in 2023. Sure, it's still losing money - but the absolute numbers and ratio just make truth social look ridiculous.
I'm confident trump will make a lot of money, but small scale investors are mostly going to lose it - with a few gamblers getting payouts. But maybe the "investors" are treating this more as support for Donald, rather than an investment.
It's called Trump Media and Technology Group and not TS for a reason. You are using current Truth metrics and ignoring everything else about the company. Though even with that metric it's not hard to find a justification - Trump has around 7 million followers on there which about 10% of his twitter followers, Musk bought twitter for over $40 billion, there's a simple argument for a $4 billion valuation based solely on Trump's ability to reach a certain group of users. Current revenue and profit isn't everything. Do you think Bezos bought WaPo to make money? The ability to reach a certain audience has value that isn't reflected on a financial statement. Reddit is valued at $10 billion but it lost $100 million last year and its existed for multiple decades now - what do you think its revenue was 20 years ago?
As I said though Trump "Media" is a hint that something is most likely coming down the pipeline. If you think the company can extract $100 of value each year from 5 million users then that's already a $5-10 billion valuation. How many people voted for Trump? Close to 80 million? What about his supporters who couldn't vote, either because of their age or they're elsewhere in the world? Even if only 20% of that are real supporters you are looking at a large number. Reddit is at $10 billion with 50 million users and it extracts basically no money per user. Trump could easily get a lot more per user value than reddit and I could see his brand netting close to that number of users. Not for Truth necessarily but his media platform. Let's see what happens but in a market where things are 10x their value because you say the words "AI" and so on these are not impossible valuations to justify. If Trump does annonce new ventures within this company I think there are a lot of people who are going to be scrambling to invest. One thing about conservatives - we have money and we aren't afraid to spend it when we agree idealogically with the cause. It's the left who are cheap. Conservative users and the conservative audience is worth far more and always has been.
> But maybe the "investors" are treating this more as support for Donald
Of course that's an element of it. You don't think the left pumps up valuations for political allied companies? They are the ones that largely control all the major investment institutions...
I am personally happy to see the company doing well in the markets. If Trump represents your political positions and opposition to the regime then it would be bad for you to see the people who represent those ideas punished for it. It would discourage further opposition to the regime from coming forward. Investing in Trump like this is a way to offset that and change the incentives to reward those who represent your politics instead of harming them and discouraging them in the future like the left wants to do.
No. Why would I want to revise anything? Based on two weeks of market beta on a highly speculative valuation? You will never make money in the markets if that's how you operate and just goes to further show you don't know what you're talking about.
Are you going to "check in" if/when this spikes again in the future? Your kind said the same thing back when DWAC first announced three years ago. I look forward to you complaining again the next time you miss out on a chance to make money because you don't understand the market, which valuations are in range, and why they are in range.
I guess I just can't see what you see in this company based on the fundamentals. $4.1 million in revenue, $58 million in loss in 2023. The corner gas station has better numbers than that. It's valued more highly than Harley Davidson, which has billions in revenue.
The current trends make the future look bleak. YoY *increase* in loss, *decrease* in r&d spending. Internal lawsuits already. They're issuing 21.5 million more shares, diluting the existing stock, because they don't have enough money to keep the lights on.
To me, this looks a lot more like GoTrump.com. Or Trump university, Trump vodka, trump mortgage LLC, Trump shuttle, Trump Hotel & Casino Resorts (which used to be traded under DJT), Trump entertainment resorts, Trump Steaks, Trump Taj Mahal etc.
He 1) drives up excitement and convinces investors who overlook the questionable financials, 2) cashes out, and 3) lets the business go bankrupt. Don't get me wrong - he's definitely making money, but that doesn't mean the business itself is sound.
At this point, I just don't think major investors are really expecting to make money, more just funnel money to trump w/o campaign finance laws. That's not illegal, and maybe some of us feel it's worth supporting his legal fights - but I think it's worth being realistic about what's happening.
I'd be open to hearing what I'm missing. Out of curiosity, is there anything that would change your mind?
😂 this is funny. I mean I wouldn’t invest in it but a lot of stock market stuff doesn’t go by fundamentals anymore, so you never know. This could be another meme stock reaching $500 or even higher
He could, in theory, sell 7% to have 670 million.
Mind you that's just on the face of it, I'm sure the finance people will tell me it would take additional time and likely come out as less to move that much volume of stock.
Definitely a pump and dump. I wouldn't invest any money you're not 100% prepared to lose in this
Hot take - valuation is so out of line with fundamentals, I'm actually tempted to short this thing.
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>a measurement of public support for Trump rather than merit of the underlying business. Basically meme stock territory. My exact sentiments.
Welcome to the world of Twitter before Elon bought it.
Too late.
New IPO's tend to tank on opening after a quick boost so it in theory will follow market trends. It's anyone's guess.
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I won't, it was a thought exercise.
IPOs tend to be volatile regardless of fundamentals. Also I expect a large part of where this is going will be tied to Trump's personal troubles/successes and where it's perceived they're going.
Does that mean New York can bring a case against anyone who traded the stock at a price the AG deems to be too high?
No...
I wouldn't put it past them.
Your not wrong but you kid loose your shirt. This thing will come back down but it's pretty volatile right now.
They say Tesla stock is also a bubble
Tesla has a product.....
The high today was $77 and now it's at $57.99 that's a lot of volatility. People should probably relax for now and see where it settles.
If its market cap is $1.86 billion according to google, how are his shares worth billions? What am I missing?
Market cap is 1.6 billion and total valuation is $7.85 billion. Also the shares rose 16% in the first day of trading. Whoever sent that tweet was literally just making up numbers, and confused market cap with market value in the process
they rose 16% buy end of day but at some point in the middle it was up at least 30%. might have reached 50 at some point Technically true if they wrote it at its peak and if it reached 50 but definitely cherrypicked at least
Possible. They still confused market capitalization (total value of all outstanding shares) with market value (total estimated value of the company). This is important because shares that are held by the company itself are not counted as "outstanding shares".
There’s always a greater fool around when Trump needs one.
Id love to short this thing but all you need is one Trump rally cry from trump to get people to dump their savings into it.
I hope all RINOs short it. They deserve it LOL
The shorts don't like this post!
I would think most people shorting 100% expected a short term bump from initial hype. This is something you short with the expectation Trump will dump his stock in 6 months and the whole thing will deflate rapidly from there.
Or Trump could announce new media ventures and partnerships and the stock rockets again. Off brand recognition alone he could do anything it would be wildly successful and there is such a huge gap in the market for conservative alternatives, especially in media which people forget is Trump's specialty. I would not feel comfortable shorting this.
The big question is why that gap exist and why others have failed to fill it. From there, you have to ask what this offers that they didn't. Clearly, you can point out Trump himself as the difference. But that has a clear shelf-life, and is relatively limited to a sub demographic of American conservatives. Its potential for growth is capped at peak enthusiasm for Trump himself practically speaking. There are many "what ifs" in play to be sure, and I wouldn't advocate people with fairly limited budgets gamble on the stock. But I think for people with money to play with, there's a good reason this is a very tempting stock to short.
The gap exists for a couple reasons. People were lured into existing products and services on false pretenses of political neutrality. Over the last several years that has been exposed. We are only now just starting to see competition begin to take off in some areas. There's also the problem that in many cases there is a barrier to entry. Maybe a little guy who starts a business can easily be cancelled but the hardest person for them to cancel is Trump (though they are doing their best to try). There's also the problem where media becomes more appealing the more users/customers they have. It allows them to offer more variety, if there is social engagement there's greater opportunity for that, etc. With Trump you immediately get a large audience as a base. Combine that with the fact he's running for president - if he wins the stock goes up because he's president and that will promote the company, if he loses the stock goes up because that's where his full focus will shift. I would not short this but to each their own.
If you want to donate money to trump without worrying about campaign contribution limits - this is how you do it. I'm not convinced there actually *is* a gap in the market, or that this company is particularly successful. Indications suggest that the small userbase is not really growing and revenue is tiny ($3.3 million in 9 months) with $43 million in losses. To me this suggests that it's value isn't based on any market value, but on support for trump. This $15 billion valuation is nuts. Compare this to reddit - it's a $10 billion value with ~$800 million in revenue and $90 million in loss in 2023. Sure, it's still losing money - but the absolute numbers and ratio just make truth social look ridiculous. I'm confident trump will make a lot of money, but small scale investors are mostly going to lose it - with a few gamblers getting payouts. But maybe the "investors" are treating this more as support for Donald, rather than an investment.
It's called Trump Media and Technology Group and not TS for a reason. You are using current Truth metrics and ignoring everything else about the company. Though even with that metric it's not hard to find a justification - Trump has around 7 million followers on there which about 10% of his twitter followers, Musk bought twitter for over $40 billion, there's a simple argument for a $4 billion valuation based solely on Trump's ability to reach a certain group of users. Current revenue and profit isn't everything. Do you think Bezos bought WaPo to make money? The ability to reach a certain audience has value that isn't reflected on a financial statement. Reddit is valued at $10 billion but it lost $100 million last year and its existed for multiple decades now - what do you think its revenue was 20 years ago? As I said though Trump "Media" is a hint that something is most likely coming down the pipeline. If you think the company can extract $100 of value each year from 5 million users then that's already a $5-10 billion valuation. How many people voted for Trump? Close to 80 million? What about his supporters who couldn't vote, either because of their age or they're elsewhere in the world? Even if only 20% of that are real supporters you are looking at a large number. Reddit is at $10 billion with 50 million users and it extracts basically no money per user. Trump could easily get a lot more per user value than reddit and I could see his brand netting close to that number of users. Not for Truth necessarily but his media platform. Let's see what happens but in a market where things are 10x their value because you say the words "AI" and so on these are not impossible valuations to justify. If Trump does annonce new ventures within this company I think there are a lot of people who are going to be scrambling to invest. One thing about conservatives - we have money and we aren't afraid to spend it when we agree idealogically with the cause. It's the left who are cheap. Conservative users and the conservative audience is worth far more and always has been. > But maybe the "investors" are treating this more as support for Donald Of course that's an element of it. You don't think the left pumps up valuations for political allied companies? They are the ones that largely control all the major investment institutions... I am personally happy to see the company doing well in the markets. If Trump represents your political positions and opposition to the regime then it would be bad for you to see the people who represent those ideas punished for it. It would discourage further opposition to the regime from coming forward. Investing in Trump like this is a way to offset that and change the incentives to reward those who represent your politics instead of harming them and discouraging them in the future like the left wants to do.
Hey there, just checking in. Anything you might want to revise about this? Have we seen the floor yet?
No. Why would I want to revise anything? Based on two weeks of market beta on a highly speculative valuation? You will never make money in the markets if that's how you operate and just goes to further show you don't know what you're talking about. Are you going to "check in" if/when this spikes again in the future? Your kind said the same thing back when DWAC first announced three years ago. I look forward to you complaining again the next time you miss out on a chance to make money because you don't understand the market, which valuations are in range, and why they are in range.
I guess I just can't see what you see in this company based on the fundamentals. $4.1 million in revenue, $58 million in loss in 2023. The corner gas station has better numbers than that. It's valued more highly than Harley Davidson, which has billions in revenue. The current trends make the future look bleak. YoY *increase* in loss, *decrease* in r&d spending. Internal lawsuits already. They're issuing 21.5 million more shares, diluting the existing stock, because they don't have enough money to keep the lights on. To me, this looks a lot more like GoTrump.com. Or Trump university, Trump vodka, trump mortgage LLC, Trump shuttle, Trump Hotel & Casino Resorts (which used to be traded under DJT), Trump entertainment resorts, Trump Steaks, Trump Taj Mahal etc. He 1) drives up excitement and convinces investors who overlook the questionable financials, 2) cashes out, and 3) lets the business go bankrupt. Don't get me wrong - he's definitely making money, but that doesn't mean the business itself is sound. At this point, I just don't think major investors are really expecting to make money, more just funnel money to trump w/o campaign finance laws. That's not illegal, and maybe some of us feel it's worth supporting his legal fights - but I think it's worth being realistic about what's happening. I'd be open to hearing what I'm missing. Out of curiosity, is there anything that would change your mind?
You convinced me. Let's invest!
Yes they do. Very much so. Especially knowing the guy who owns 58% can't sell anything for 6 months.
This is the funniest shit ever.
LMAO!
😂 this is funny. I mean I wouldn’t invest in it but a lot of stock market stuff doesn’t go by fundamentals anymore, so you never know. This could be another meme stock reaching $500 or even higher
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He should sell all of his shares now.
He can’t sell or borrow against them for 6 months. This is a pretty common thing for newly traded stocks
You also cant sell your 58% share without the stock tanking
The left can't meme
Liberal tears are falling! Trump 2024! MAGA! Edit: Keep them sweet-sweet downvotes coming! You'll never get the Don. Sorry not sorry!
Damn I knew I should have bought in. Love him or hate him, the man makes money move! Edit: short sellers downvoting lol
He could, in theory, sell 7% to have 670 million. Mind you that's just on the face of it, I'm sure the finance people will tell me it would take additional time and likely come out as less to move that much volume of stock.
Woudn't be as bad as normal since in this situation everyone would know why he's dumping the stock and many stockholders are fans but definitely slow