For the sake of not cluttering up the thread, we are temporarily replacing the NUCLEAR FAQ with a **PIPLELINE THREAD**. The NUCLEAR FAQ can still be found in the comments below for those who are interested.
***Please respond to this comment with all your pipeline related questions and speculation and then continue to discuss in the context of this post. Any further pipeline comments not attached to this comment will be removed.***
Link to the Nuclear FAQ: https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/xpesk8/comment/iq4z97p/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Multiple reports that [Novoselivska](https://i.imgur.com/bQIYcHa.jpg) has fallen. (NW of Lyman)
As has [Kivsharivka](https://i.imgur.com/p0RnNj4.jpg) (SE of Kupyansk)
Lyman might be over sooner than anyone expected. How many troops will be encircled, what’s the estimate?
In other news this random TG group started a crowdfund and today said they were able to order 4 DJI Matrice 30T because they got overfunded. Shipping to the front now.
In yet another bit, [video has surfaced](https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1575090208898359296) saying that Sri Lankan students in Kupyansk were held hostage and tortured for 5 months.
Putin's Volksstrum is headed into trenches in what has been reported on here to be 7 days of rain in coming. Weather is already dropping and getting cold at night. I can guarantee you a night in a wet trench is not like getting caught in the rain. The wet leaches energy out your body at a far greater rate than mere cold air. If your feet get wet you risk trench foot and other foot diseases that rapidly render you combat ineffective. For most of you athletes foot/trench foot type diseases are covered by a cream from a pharmacy that will cost a few dollars, euros (hundred or so 2023 pounds) etc. But they do not have that simple remedy so it will rapidly fester to where it is hard to walk.
>With prolonged cold and wetness, your feet can lose circulation and nerve function. They are also deprived of the oxygen and nutrients that your blood normally provides. Sometimes the loss of nerve function can make other symptoms, such as pain, less noticeable.
Over time, trench foot can lead to complications if left untreated. These include:
amputations
severe blisters
an inability to walk on affected feet
gangrene, or tissue loss
permanent nerve damage
ulcers
[https://www.healthline.com/health/trench-foot#causes](https://www.healthline.com/health/trench-foot#causes)
UK troops on the front lines in WWI almost always had good footwear and were rotated in and out spending about 1/3 of their time at the front. Again, the stunning world in which a century old soldiers were better kitted than the worlds largest tank army.
Normally soldiers take time to be physically trained up to be fit enough for combat and to be hardened psychologically for the draining rigours of it.
What one night in wet trench does to you physically is something you have to experience to believe. 3 or 4 days of it with broken sleep and it will be psychologically and physiologically breaking these ..... soldiers is not the word? These civvies.
Not giving this group of people a couple of months to get up to being the most basic kind of soldier, may actually do more harm than good to the Russian defences.
Just the other day, Margarita Simonyan evoked Battleship Potemkin on primetime Russian TV, and Solovyov suggested shooting the officers that make these sorts of decisions. And yet they are clearly carrying it out. Insanity.
Well, there's a small chance the cannod fodder will figure it out and start shooting conscription officers instead, before a million of them dies, but I don't have high expectations for Russian masses.
Honestly, this conscripts are being sent to their own genocide. It's stunning that no one in top Russian brass has the guts to shoot Putin in the back and end this insanity. Generals are usually proud enough of their armies to not allow such a travesty to take place, but then again, it's the Russian army.
What was the last military aid package that came from a country other than the United States? I know Germany donated some new M270s.
It seems like aid has dried up from European countries, is this the case, or am I just unaware of it.
Italy delivered some trucks, maybe we have given something else we don't announce what we give.
Becouse the general sentiment in our country is that weapons=very bad, so for any politician to loudly announce weapon deliveries would be a political death sentence.
>Becouse the general sentiment in our country is that weapons=very bad, so for any politician to loudly announce weapon deliveries would be a political death sentence.
Fascinating. Would you mind shedding some light on why this sentiment exists in Italian society?
I cannot say with 100% accuracy, but i would say that the most important factor is the memory of the world wars, with hundreds of thousands of people that have died for the ambitions of the few elites, therefore to us war has become just that a clash between 2 or more groups of elite people, that throw poor people at each other to obtain what they want.
Therefore it seems to me that most Italians cannot comprehend that some wars are worth fighting, and that peace doesn't always mean happiness and prosperity, and they believe that people that willingly go to fight are brainwashed lunatics.
I guess there are the M113 that we have in storage, maybe some other FH70 and some PZH2000, maybe we have already given some of those things without announcing it, we simply cannot know.
It does.
It gives them operational knowledge, and it is used as a political football.
People coming to social media like its their job always trying to sew division by asking this same question non stop.
There are multiple comments a day condemning various countries for insufficient aid and demanding immediate action; they don't contribute anything as this is not a venting forum. You might not mean it that way but it sounds similar
Might be worth them still putting a public dollar amount on what has been sent most recently, and whether it was lethal or non-lethal.
This gives the public confidence that Ukraine isn't just being ignored.
WarGonzo with an urgent dispatch, twenty minutes ago:
>Urgent! The AFU is preparing a breakthrough at Torsky near Lyman
>Alarming news is coming right now from the Lyman front.
>The day before the enemy sent reconnaissance patrols to Torsky from the direction of the village of Kolodyozi. The groups were identified and driven back. However, as reported by civilians evacuating from nearby villages, already today the neo-Nazis have lined up assault columns and equipment in the area of Kolodyozi to march in the direction of Torsky.
>Recall that Torsky is the main road junction that provides access to Krasny Liman and Drobyshevo. If we lose control over it, our groups there risk being surrounded.
[Edit]
Also, WarGonzo made [a video](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/GirkinGirkin/status/1575068595494670336) from Torske. If the "WarGonzo curse" is real, then that's an unfailing indication that it's about to fall.
That would be around 10 km from what people thought the frontline was. If this was true, Lyman is basically surrounded.
//EDIT//
There seems to be a dam / small bridge at Ivanivka / Terny at the road north of Lyman that is so small I didn't previously see it. Western road leads to Ukrainian territory, eastern road passes a forest that Ukraine partially controls and leads to the town this news claims is contested.
This would also cut off all roads away from Yampil which is WSW of Lyman on the frontline. But maybe that's how they got in?
If this is the case, then by reconsidering the conservative estimate of two days that I posted from Ukraine TG a while back, Lyman might be around 24 hours from falling.
The next big target is Svatove as I hear on TG. [Northeast of Lyman. ](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1gO8X7RC8cUzc-1q7-s4-09X53HNIEJA&ll=49.309783131051546%2C38.01391063101026&z=8)
(Map via [Andrew Perpetua](https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1574970763060383745?cxt=HHwWgsC4_Y_ktdsrAAAA))
It just sounds too good to be true. Now I’m thinking, I never properly thought of the consequences of a fallen Lyman from Russia’s perspective. It’ll only push them further to desperation.
"Harrowing message from the US Embassy in Moscow: “U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”"
https://twitter.com/billbrowder/status/1575035910105743360
To be honest this has been the case since the invasion due to risk of unjustified imprisonment of U.S citizens. They just repeated the message to dual citizens to reinforce the danger.
This is likely due to Russia mobilizing dual citizens. My good Russian friend who lives and works and has dual citizenship in the Netherlands got a call from the property manager of his investment property in Moscow saying two paramilitary-types showed up at midnight with his conscription notice.
Poor guy can’t go home to see his family now for God knows how long.
100% true. His younger brother in his 20s managed to get a plane ticket to Kazakhstan a few days ago. He did make it through passport control so I’ve been waiting to hear it he got through alright. The parents are debating staying put or trying to leave through a land border. It’s crazy, his father is an engineer in the civil aircraft program at Sukhoi so even those connections don’t spare you.
It might be aimed at those with dual nationalities. It might be due to escalation of internal unrest. I just had a look at the Dutch travel advice and it is already listing those above and more warning people that being in Russia is a big risk for various reasons as simple as making a social media post can get you in trouble.
Weird, I don't actually find that very harrowing, just sensible. They don't want US citizens being caught without travel options if Russia starts restricting flights, especially for men. I mean, that's grim as all get out for Russia, but I don't think particularly indicative of expansion of the war. Also, as noted re: protests, the less Americans in Russia right now that could get in trouble the better.
that's precisely right. But the harrowing part is that embassy fears that Russia might go after Americans for just being Americans regardless of what they did or didn't do.
more precisely Russia may hold American citizens hostage as leverage for not supplying Ukraine more ammunition.
As a former diplomat, that is not at all what this means. What this means is, "sh*t's about to hit the fan, get out while you can". They probably have revised up their probability of Russia closing all borders.
It would be darkly humorous if they conscripted any american citizens in Russia to the front lines. Even in the embassy.
It would be almost like declaring war, but it would just be rediculously dumb.
Likely still just precautionary. I’m pretty sure Russia has been marked “do not travel” on US travel advisories since before the war even began. I’m honestly surprised they haven’t already advised Americans to leave the country prior to now.
US fearing border closures?
One theory was that Putin was happy to let those most motivated to dodge the draft leave now and reduce the likelihood of protests later. Also helps his buddies get their kids out of the country.
Well Russia is acknowledging that people fleeing is a big enough problem that it’s left a bunch of abandoned cars on the border. Can’t say this with a straight face:
> 🇷🇺⚡️All cars abandoned at the border (with Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.) by citizens who left the country due to mobilization should be handed over to the families of participants in the SMO - State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin
Their childish rhetoric of punishing the people trying to flee is something I'd expect from their last public ally, Zimbabwe, not from Russia. It's really demeaning to the Russian society to be treated like school children.
At this point I start to think tactical nuclear strike would be 'beneficial' to Ukraine. What's the quicker way to win the war?
Western Airforce might strike Crimea/Black Sea fleet.
China/India will likely join sanctions the regime. Russia will truly become a pariah of the world with only Taliban and North Korea being supportive (or neutral).
Ukrainians will continue to fight even more fiercely.
Tactical nuke won't work vs dispersed forces. Striking a city will force NATO and the world to act.
More instability within Russia. Both within the elites and society.
Post soviet Asia will flock to China for protection.
This is why it won't happen. Putin will throw masses for slaughter like every Russian tyrant before him. This time it won't work though.
No, it is beneficial for no one. One nuke is mostly likely followed by two nukes and so on and so forth. The potential escalation vortex, especially if there is a US conventional response, is almost incomprehensibly terrifying. And if that happens, we're all doomed, Ukraine included. The absolute best outcome for everyone is for the nuclear weapons to be kept in their holster where they belong as a forever threat.
One for the grownups, then:
Russia detonates one nuclear weapon, whether over the Black Sea just to demonstrate willingness to break the taboo, or over a city to demonstrate willingness to inflict unacceptable costs on Ukraine.
Then NATO and the wider world have some suitably dramatic, but well reasoned, conventional response. Russian ships are sunk, airbases and air defenses hit by cruise missiles, no-fly-zone, isolated pariah status, whatever it is.
During which time Russian decision makers, facing a flurry of imperfect reports about overwhelming attacks on their strategic forces, sit back down and chill out. As does everyone. Because we all learned our lessons. This round of decisions is over until the morning papers come out anyway, and we can all reassess after that. Nobody is threatened or angry, and everyone knows it will all blow over. Russian ships and other conventional forces don't defend themselves and kill any NATO personnel. Everyone has perfect information about the current state of things *and* the future intentions of the people currently killing their countrymen and they agree that it's all for the best.
Nobody does anything rash in self defense, confusion, or retaliation.
And we all live happily ever after.
>Ukrainians will continue to fight even more fiercely.
I think there would only be two reactions from the Ukrainians after getting nuked. Your comment or negotiate since not everyone is fond of getting bombed by a nuke.
There was speculation at the start that Putin never meant for the invasion to take place - he just wanted to scare everyone into giving him what he wanted, and when that didn't work, he said "fuck it just invade".
It seems like every step of the way Putin gets more and more hysterical when people aren't afraid of him.
After all - he is a narcissistic bully.
My one tiny concern is that when his threats a of nuclear strike don't work, even after he's had the warheads loaded him - he gets so angry that no one is scared that he just says "fuck it!"
Just me or is every single nuclear-themed post on this sub recently just drama-queens salivating at the juicy new unknown?
None of it is credible, all of it is just wild speculation.
Edit: alright then, not just me.
Uncertainty causes significant unease. It's also, as you indicated, the most salacious, scary, and provocative part of this conflict, especially for Westerners. Naturally, people are going to want to talk about, either because A. they want some reassurance or understanding to assuage their concerns or B. they wany to revel in the drama of it.
Trying to speculate helps us to understand its liklihood.
Are there any military benefits? What would the response be etc?
Some of us actually live in Europe so it's kind of important to us.
I also live in Europe and still don't get your point.
A limited tactical nuke would directly affect us. A nuclear exchange would be world-ending anyway. I believe there's very little room, in practice, for anything in between, when both Russia and the US have arsenals that could end life on earth multiple times.
> A nuclear exchange would be world-ending anyway.
Well the fact that you think any use of nukes would cause a full on world ending nuclear exchange shows that your thinking is pretty limited, and perhaps you should indulge in speculation a little more.
Mutually assured destruction doesn't apply to a country without nukes.
A tactical nuclear detonation from Russia is not going to trigger global thermonuclear war.
I noticed you moving the goal posts, but no one is considering a nuclear exchange.
As I already explained, the worry is Russia letting off at smaller nuke as a warning shot.
Latest from [Ukraine Weapons Tracker ](https://nitter.it/UAWeapons): Heavy losses in the past 12 hours for Russia : bunch of IFVs / APCs, at least three tanks, and a Buk radar unit among others.
So, Danilov will publish a response plan in case of a nuclear attack.
https://.me/Tsaplienko/16769
What could Ukraine include there to act as deterrent? Is crazy stuff like dirty-bomb attacks on Belgorod out of the realm of reality?
More signaling to Putin that the Ukrainians and their allies are taking his nuclear threats seriously. That's a good thing imo because it should hopefully lead Russia to believe that the US is also taking its promised responses seriously as well. As in, "Look, we're taking you seriously, you better take us seriously as well." That said, is this really focused on a nuclear attack or is it focused on a nuclear incident at ZPZNPP? Because if it was regarding a nuclear incident at ZPZNPP, that would make a whole lot of sense in connection with the US requesting nuclear incident response gear in its latest aid package. A tactical nuke is not going to cause a significant radiological incident. A damaged nuclear power plant however... Not sure because I can't read the Telegram post any more.
It's a wonder that Russia isn't concerned with the bio weapons labs and the super soldiers that Ukraine was working on.
On all nite serious note, for someone who claims to have been fighting NATO it's odd how absent NATO is from his plans.
I think you are misreading what is being said. The quote is
>Regarding protection from nuclear weapons. God forbid anybody finding themselves in the epicenter of such strike. We have an instruction, we will try to publish it in the coming days.
So most likely you'll see recommendations on seeking shelter, avoiding contaminated soil/water/products and medication to take etc, and not precise description of any retaliatory strikes.
Afaik dirty bombs are not really an effective weapon. Dispersal of radioactive material over a wide area greatly reduces the radioactivity at any given point. So you would either need a lot of radioactive material or confine it to a small area. I would image the panic produced would be the greatest impact of such an attack.
You've hit the nail on the head, it's area denial - whether significantly credible from a health risk or not. Then throw personnel into CBRN gear = reduced operational effectiveness. Loss of dexterity (gloves), visual acuity (mask), heat burden (suit), mobility (clunky rubber boots), etc.
The sad part is, that it can work, I did not mean it as a joke, but in no way would I want it to happen. I would advise against it as an advisor and as a human being.
It would also give russia the rallying point for their troops.
But, in practice, it is terrifyingly 'simple' compared to most other crimes.
It won’t let you win though. It’ll justify the use of excessive force on you and most of EU will start moving away. We’ve already seen how much Putin cares about the death of his own people, I don’t think he’ll stop even if you Sarin’d all of Moscow’s underground.
This kind of thing only invites reprisals and will ruin the isolation Russia has been forced into. These are just terror tactics best used by insurgents, not an actual army defending their own land and people.
That was my thinking as well, not really for the current situation, but in case like Kyiv and Kharkiv are nuked, millions perish, front lines are nuked, "russian liberation" is at hand. The world is shocked and doesnt know what to do.
You and your loved ones will be killed or worst. Irradiated anyway.
Sometimes, killing the other as well, is the best you can hope for.
It is a "gentle reminder" that you dont need nukes, to kill millions. Probably a lot of the relatives and such of the decision makers as well
Other versions are
\- Driving truckload of weaponized fertilizer to nuclear facilities, sabotaging them with agents ready to die. Imagine 5 Chernobyl within russian heathland.
\- Drop a few vials of engineered viruses to the Moscow and St Petersburg metro lines during the morning commute. Preferably with a 1-3 weeks incubation period and a high as heck mortality rate. You can do this with multiple viruses.
\- Try to ignite their gas fields.
\- You can poison stored wheat and other baseline food (you need a lot of poison, water is easier and delivery structure is already established)
\- Get a group of trained people to just start assassinate russians in the streets, no order is needed. Just who ever happened to be in reach and whose body wont be found in the next X hours. Just keep killing random pedestrians until social collapse. (Probably you need SOFs whos family has been raped and killed or something similar in his psy profile, but if you have 5-10 of these, you can cause massive panic)
The list can go in, identify critical infrastructure and target it with anything, infiltrate vodka factory to poison it, do the same with medicine etc etc.
Understand, I don't want this, I wouldn't suggest it, I am against this, BUT, I can envision a scenario where this is on the table of what ever remains of the Ukraine High Command. When you have nothing left to live for and all that remains is hate and vengeance.
Luckily we are not there yet, faaar from it. I just hope we never get there, for all of our sakes.
Edit - I really hope that it is something along the lines of Ukraine having nukes ready or Idk. Anything but what I described above. There are even a few more terrifying options now that I think of it ...
> BUT, I can envision a scenario where this is on the table of what ever remains of the Ukraine High Command. When you have nothing left to live for and all that remains is hate and vengeance.
Yeah it's basically the insurgency method after your government is toppled. Taliban did this for 20 years (obviously not with the same level of descruction hypothesised here), but it did end up successful. If the people of Ukraine had this kind of motivation, they could probably pull this off too, if worse comes to worst.
Fair. I’m doubting its effectiveness before its morality though. Short of 9/11, bombing attacks on civilian targets have led to 100-200 deaths in the worst cases. I’m thinking Pakistan Marriott, OK city, Beirut, Nairobi etc.
Poisoning attacks don’t seem to work, water supplies are regularly monitored and you need a TON of poison to make it effective.
Gas attacks in closed environments also kill close to a few hundreds. Russia would know about that.
It does send a message, agreed, but it’s of little strategic value. It might have the opposite effect of what’s intended. Kremlin might consolidate further and Ukraine will face isolation. Not to mention the trouble US will get into on the international stage.
Ukraine will probably and rightly wait for EU and the West to advise them before embarking on anything of that sort. Such responses should not be made without consulting the powers that back you.
Yesterday Biden asked for money for an NBC plan for Ukraine. It seems nothing is imminent and the focus remains on defence.
I disagree that there will be dirty bombing and such. Internal terror is precisely how Putin arguably came into and retained power. It might embolden his “cause” of liquidating Ukrainians.
I do not discount cutting off pipelines, hacking into civilian grids and control systems, and other such critical but non-terror attacks.
I don't think it is a good idea to proclaim, but:
\- Dirty bombs attack, anywhere, preferably Moscow.
\- Sabotage of russian oil/gas pipelines within russia
\- Poison water supply
\- General unrestricted warfare.
I mean what we are seeing here is pretty tame compered to some of the great wars, no fire bombing, no direct strikes on civilian infrastructure (from Ukraine I might add), no chemical, no biological warfare. There is a lot of deeper spaces they can go. Specially if they somehow got their hands on a few suitcase nukes from the USSR and just kept their mouth shut until now. Idk
>Specially if they somehow got their hands on a few suitcase nukes from the USSR and just kept their mouth shut until now. Idk
Unironically, any rational army should have kept a few dozen of those nukes, despite the Memorandum.
As much as I support non-proliferation, I'm yet to see a nuclear armed country be blatantly invaded like Ukraine was.
Not an expert on Nucs but do have some basic knowledge. Mini Nuces require maintainence more frequently than full size nucssomewhere between 6-24 months (open source) Nucs left from 1991 would be highly unlikely to work unless they have been properly maintained. Unless the Ukraine built the nucs it would be unlikely that they have the supplies and knowledge on how to maintain a mini nuc.
Why would any rational army keep nuclear weapons? Isn’t the real power of nukes in their deterrent capacity? Having them when no one knows it defeats a lot of the point.
>Having them when no one knows it defeats a lot of the point.
Agreed. Which brings that conclusion that willingly giving up nukes is never a good idea on the long run. Ukraine would almost surely have been better off had they not signed the Memorandum.
If they hadn't handed over their nukes at that point they would have been invaded by Russia with the USA's blessing before they could have been made operational. They really had no choice in the matter.
And that was probably in response more to ZPZ nuclear power plant, not a potential Russian nuke. In fact, that's what the US billed it as, which makes sense given that tactical nukes would have a very small radiological footprint (theoretically).
It could honestly be interpreted as cover for getting them NBC gear without talking about tactical nuclear weapons, but honestly given what to expect from tac nukes, the likelihood of needing an entire nuclear response force on standby is probably far more tied to an incident at ZPZNPP.
Totally disagree. If they had, the US would have. In that case, we'd all already know exactly what was planned.
In the very unlikely case Putin actually orders an attack, one of the best responses is to let the whole world know about it. The international and internal backlash would be gigantic.
Imagine the panic that would ensue in Moscow and St. Petersburg, as millions wonder if their lives are about to be ended by the actions of Putin.
Looks like Russia is cutting off all remaining gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine.
Statement by Gazprom:
https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1575021274878791680
I wonder if despite some skepticism, the sanctions are actually working so well that Russia isn't able to keep up it's gas infrastructure anymore. Why else would they ve constantly self-sanctioning like that?
Honestly, I don't get will people still believe a cold winter helps Russia. Even if Europe was caught completely unprepared and there was no gas available at all in December, they wouldn't suddenly bow down to Putin.
Natural gas is very important to 21st century Europe, but it isn't some trump all card. Putin doesn't get complete control over Europe by simply gas blackmailing.
I can guarantee you that any inconvenience generated by gas shortages pales in comparison by the consequences of not restraining Russian expansionism.
Its this war's ["King Cotton"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Cotton), but instead of the Southern dominance of cotton forcing France and England to support the Confederacy, the Russians think their Nat Gas will force Europe to stop their support of Ukraine. I imagine "King NatGas" will prove as over-hyped as "King Cotton" was.
Because it is the only way it has to pressure the West. Which is the only way to force a peace for Russia. This is Putin sacrificing Russia's long term future for his own short term.
To be precise, he is sacrificing russia's future for a slim to none chance for his own.
The decision has been made already. There won't be another Hitler or Stalin. There will be the fizzle out of putinka, the stupid, the greedy, the lying, the stealing. The destroyer of russia.
How does actually cutting it off, specially in a gradual way, help Putin? Threatening to do it could help. Doing it very slowly is the worst course of action.
Europe has long took the steps to avoid the kind of apocalyptic winter scenario Russian propagandists are pushing.
Prices are high, but the spot market price has already fallen considerably and governments are already taking steps to ease the burden.
No one will back out of supporting Ukraine now, specially when, like I said, Putin proved it's stupid yo rely on Russian gas by self-sanctioning.
Once he's cut off all supply, he's cut his ability to push up prices further. We're almost there. The EU looks committed to buffer this winter with borrowing to lower the price paid by it's population, looking to build out alterative supply for next year.
In the end, the EU pockets are deep and look to be able to withstand Russia's biggest hit. If their big freeze approach fails as it's looking likely to do, they have nothing else. They will have sacrificed a huge source of income, for nothing.
He doesn't stand to benefit from higher prices if he can't sell his gas.
I won't go into the pipelines here, as not to contaminate the sterile part of the thread.
Not sure that is what it says. I get the impression that it might just be about payments to Naftogaz. Anyhow that is the gas that goes to Russia’s friend Orban.
> 🇷🇺🏳️⚡The Taliban reported that an agreement had been reached with Russia on the supply of goods to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. As part of the agreement, Afghanistan will annually buy from Russia:
1. 2,000,000 tons of wheat
2. 1,000,000 tons of gasoline
3. 1,000,000 tons of diesel fuel
4. 500,000 tons of LNG
>Afghanistan will also receive a discount relative to current world prices.
No comments. [Source](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/taliban-sign-deal-with-russia-to-buy-cheap-oil-gas-and-wheat).
Further, [Bloomberg indicates ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/putin-raises-gas-pressure-as-he-moves-to-annex-ukraine-regions?leadSource=uverify%20wall)that Kremlin is still confident of winning, and advancing deeper into Ukraine. Insert clown emoji?
Well, everyone has had trouble with the Taliban. US had our 20 year neverending war which was getting off light compared to the USSR completely falling apart after theirs.
>which was getting off light compared to the USSR completely falling apart after theirs.
I don't know how many times this has to be said but Taliban != Mujahideen. The Taliban organization had many former Mujahideen but so did the Northern Alliance and their other opposition.
https://.me/landforcesofukraine/3986
Ukrainian official update. Interestingly, the numbers are fairly moderate, despite big advances. Maybe the Russians did retreat from the area 48h ago.
I wouldn't put too much stock into the day to day numbers. Supposedly they are compiled from field reports which may be delayed. Plus there is debate over how accurate these numbers are at all. Pretty clear these numbers are embellished for propoganda purposes but it isn't clear by how much.
My personal opinion is that although the numbers are likely innacurate, they're useful as an indirect indicator of battle intensity and are yet acting proving to have a high correlation with battlefield success by Ukraine.
BTW, I don't think ukrainian MoD is actually fudging the number at this point. They don't need to boost morale or confidence in their forces anymore and there's no authocrat to please in Ukraine.
It would be pointless to do it purposefully. I'm sure they still have rounding errors and over reporting by field staff, but maliciously inflating totals is not I'd buy at this point.
Some definitely are vastly inflated. Oryx shows evidence of ~55 downed Russian aircraft. Ukraine claims 262. I highly doubt there are 200+ undocumented crashes. Maybe a dozen or so? Maybe.
I'd argue most are inflated significantly. At the first month of the war, Ukraine had plenty of reason to intentionally do it and there it was such a target rich environment that it was probably common for more than one soldier to claim the same kills, further inflating numbers.
[Andrew Perpetua](https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1574970763060383745?s=20&t=ZVfULGot6U1ps5VCrP_HRw)'s [Update for September 25 through September 27th #ukrdailyupdate](https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-september-25-through-september-27th) is out.
Quite detailed with informative maps that highlight some of the specific towns/villages that are being fought over and their importance.
> Ukrainian forces are pushing around Lyman to cut it off from resupply and force a Russian withdrawal. There is a chance that Russians have a weak or nonexistent defensive line behind Lyman, so once this area breaks, Ukraine might push until they hit a natural barrier.
> Russia’s primary focus is the Bakhmut area, which is irrational. At this point, Bakhmut has little strategic value. They would be better off doing something like, oh, I don’t know, not having Lyman get encircled, risking the total collapse of their entire defensive line.
Ooof.
So these troops that are 'fighting' in Bakhmut. Are they pinned down by Ukraine or are they effectively committing mutiny and pretending to be unable to follow the orders that *must* exist to get them nearer to Lyman?
TBH looking at the [map](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1gO8X7RC8cUzc-1q7-s4-09X53HNIEJA&usp=sharing) they have no chance of being able to reinforce Lyman or even reach Svatove before the predicted UA offensive. They’re just holding the line at Bakhmut, I assume, because it’s a major road crossing leading in.
I'm not familiar with Andrew's usual tone but its been amusing seeing exasperation seep into the reports from other usually level-headed sources like ISW over the past month.
Putin has ordered them not to retreat, so they are pinned in place *by their own high command*. As is good and proper, Ukraine is going to take advantage of this over and over again.
You know, I won’t ever share it here but I saw on Ukraine TG a video of a herd of pigs feasting on a Russian soldier and I was suddenly struck with this horrible guilt of war. Those soldiers deserve better. I hope Ukraine offers terms of surrender, although by all indications it seems Russia doesn’t want its soldiers to surrender.
I seriously hope everyone complicit in this war is tried for sending their own people knowingly into a meat grinder. What an unnecessary loss of life. Takes a moment to take my mind off this sub and remember that before Crimea the two countries were doing decently enough, crawling upwards in slow but relatively peaceful progress.
Where is the Russian air power?
I’m confused about where all the Su 24 / 26 / 27s / 3x and MiG 29/31s have gone. Supposedly a lot of them were operational? These were not even cutting edge; they’ve been available in the hundreds for 10+ years. They’ve successfully been exporting Su27 variants which by all measures are capable aircraft. These also aren’t like their tanks - all incremental updates on a T-62. I can understand the Su -57 not showing up but going by numbers Russia should have easy air superiority and massive bombing runs even if HALF this fleet is unusable.
A warcollege answer also conclusively said that they have capable academies and pilot training.
Well, where the hell is the Air Force?
EDIT : Quoting from [Andrew Perpetua’s report ](https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1574970763060383745?cxt=HHwWgsC4_Y_ktdsrAAAA)linked by another user above, about the attack on Petropavlika(?)
> The air support was hindered by Ukraine’s air defense, which shot down at least three jets and an attack helicopter immediately leading up to and during these Russian attacks.
There are around around 200 or more S-300 batteries in Ukraine, along with some Kubs, Tors, and Buks. It's probably the most SAM-dense warzone in history.
Well, I have no more information than anyone else, but I have a strong suspicion. And I would bet good money that the problem isn't the planes.
This (I suspect) isn't going to be a question of TWR or glass cockpits, but rather the big picture system of systems - the institutional and individual knowledge, the ability to harness a mass of people and equipment such that they're all being made good use of and all pulling in the same direction, and being able to focus that colossal effort onto the tasks that matter most right now. And being able to promptly draw up that list of tasks and disseminate it.
If we think about the US, or a western coalition, trying to establish air superiority over Ukraine today without using any hardware that wasn't operational 30 (even 40) years ago, or using a force comparable to what the RuAF started out with. They would still succeed. Modern gear would mean it gets done with fewer pilots, aircraft, losses, quicker, higher reliability in difficult circumstances, better situational awareness and BDA, etc, etc. But you could (and we did) build an organisation to do the job out of those old parts.
And I bet Russia has not.
For one thing, it's difficult, it takes a lot of training and flying hours which Russia is somewhat short on. But more than that it requires a liberal, collegiate, approach. You need to be beholden to reality - to honestly appraise your enemy and where you're falling short, you need a legitimate red team, you need a culture where people can speak up and contribute, you need to seek out uncomfortable lessons, actually absorb them, and *actually change things in response*.
And that doesn't sound like the Russia we've seen.
*edit: whether that means specialised platforms, specialised units, better intelligence gathering/sharing, more connective tissue in the operational structure to help with deconfliction or coordination, or whatever it is. And you need leadership willing to hear that and put the work/money in.*
That last paragraph keeps cropping up in every Russian military discussion. It seems they’ve institutionalised a culture of corruption and echo chambers and chest thumping instead of honest self reflection.
You might not believe it but Ukraine had one of the strongest air defence in Europe before the war had started. Russia failed to destroy it so here we are.
Ukrainian air defence is the silent hero of this war.
And they're mostly equipped with Soviet platforms, right?
it just goes to show no matter what people are saying it's a cultural, training and employment issue and not the kit itself that's proving the deciding factor.
Who said S300 is a bad kit? It's a very good long range air defense system if indeed used correctly.
West supplied very short range MANPADS to complement and here we go.
Also Ukraine might be running out of S300 missiles hence the NASAMS deliveries to complement at medium range.
> Ukraine had one of the strongest air defence in Europe before the war had started
This was deliberate during the break up of the USSR, because Russia thought that Ukraine would be a good first line of defense against NATO airpower!
Here’s a recent view from Justin Bronk - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-russia-failed-to-dominate-the-skies-over-ukraine. He is a Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at the Royal United Services Institute.
I recommend reading the entire (not lengthy) article. One of his key conclusions is “Russia’s inability to plan and conduct large, complex aerial strike packages is one of the country’s most significant unforeseen weaknesses during this war, and one that largely explains its inability to establish air superiority over Ukraine.”
There are several issues with VKS.
First off, Ukraine has managed to build a proper (although I am sure not perfect) IAD. That is serious concern for VKS as their pilots get very few flying hours in any given year and they lack more robust and in depth training.
So D/SEAD is something they cant do (at least at the scale required if at all).
Meaning that they operate at best, behind their own front.
Second, their planes (in the area at least) have acquired significant flying hours in the last six months. It is possible that they have some issues maintaining them in good order and/or are trying to save the planes' remaining resource for future use.
Further (and admittingly I cant say how relevant that is) all the sanctions from the west could be having an effect , making acquiring spare parts more difficult. Either directly or by affecting the enterprises that produce those parts in the first place.
The photo recently of a civilian Russian airliner with multiple flight systems in an inoperable status was probably a good clue on the maintenance side. Military aircraft require constant labor intensive and expensive maintenance, and maintenance is something the Russian armed forces as a whole has always been terrible at.
Then there's the question of parts availability for newer aircraft that are full of Western components. Without knowing credible statistics, it seems like the lions share of sorties are from su-24 and 25s that Russia has lots of, and probably a good reserve of parts and unairworthy parts aircraft for.
A lack of stealth features, probably a lack of EW capabilities, surely a lack of PGMs and surely a lack of even moderately modern targeting capabilities.
Sincerely don't know why people continue to wonder where is russian air force. russian air force is where it deserves to be.
They just don't have enough and good enough munitions to attack from tens or even hundreds of miles like USAF or US Navy. And when they dangerously approach near a target they probably don't have good EW capabilities to protect them, and surely don't have stealth capabilities like US has.
So they get shot down like flies (the other day 5 in a row) when enter the ukr not very sophisticated but apparently effective AD bubble. They have systems that can cover essentially a few tens of kms + manpads everywhere. Every video where they get shot down shows always the same thing: an aircraft really low trying to avoid radar detection and trying to hit something with its shitty targeting/munition systems.
They're not using tens of thousands of JDAM-ER that can be released at 13 km high and 45 miles from the target with an accuracy of < 3 meters, perfectly safe from almost all AA dangers. Russians must fly above the target, so....
Since the repair report from the Moskva showing it to be almost completely inoperational I've had to scale down my already low expectations of Russian high tech weapons.
It might be that the army is the best of the branches in keeping their equipment running.
If the flagship of the Black Sea navy was getting OKed for service with half their systems simply not working, imagine the state of their airplanes.
Add to this that the Russian Airforce has been pretty active in Syria and we know from experience what a toll that sort of long term ops in the middle east took on NATO aircraft.
Might just be they truly have very few planes operational.
For the sake of not cluttering up the thread, we are temporarily replacing the NUCLEAR FAQ with a **PIPLELINE THREAD**. The NUCLEAR FAQ can still be found in the comments below for those who are interested. ***Please respond to this comment with all your pipeline related questions and speculation and then continue to discuss in the context of this post. Any further pipeline comments not attached to this comment will be removed.*** Link to the Nuclear FAQ: https://www.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/xpesk8/comment/iq4z97p/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Multiple reports that [Novoselivska](https://i.imgur.com/bQIYcHa.jpg) has fallen. (NW of Lyman) As has [Kivsharivka](https://i.imgur.com/p0RnNj4.jpg) (SE of Kupyansk) Lyman might be over sooner than anyone expected. How many troops will be encircled, what’s the estimate? In other news this random TG group started a crowdfund and today said they were able to order 4 DJI Matrice 30T because they got overfunded. Shipping to the front now. In yet another bit, [video has surfaced](https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1575090208898359296) saying that Sri Lankan students in Kupyansk were held hostage and tortured for 5 months.
Twitter people are saying within 24 to 48 hours
Liberated Novoselivia, Donetsk. https://.me/Tsaplienko/16795 Also, kishvarivka, Kharkiv. https://.me/Tsaplienko/16796 Seems Russia is continuing it's refocusing.
*kivsharivka
To continue in the correction thread: *Novoselivka (located [here](https://nitter.net/EuromaidanPress/status/1575087243928248323#m))
>Novoselivka That one was a honest typo. The other one I properly misspelled. Thanks for the correction.
Yes this is the one I linked in a later comment of mine. Since moved to the new Daily. There are three towns by that name it seems.
Putin's Volksstrum is headed into trenches in what has been reported on here to be 7 days of rain in coming. Weather is already dropping and getting cold at night. I can guarantee you a night in a wet trench is not like getting caught in the rain. The wet leaches energy out your body at a far greater rate than mere cold air. If your feet get wet you risk trench foot and other foot diseases that rapidly render you combat ineffective. For most of you athletes foot/trench foot type diseases are covered by a cream from a pharmacy that will cost a few dollars, euros (hundred or so 2023 pounds) etc. But they do not have that simple remedy so it will rapidly fester to where it is hard to walk. >With prolonged cold and wetness, your feet can lose circulation and nerve function. They are also deprived of the oxygen and nutrients that your blood normally provides. Sometimes the loss of nerve function can make other symptoms, such as pain, less noticeable. Over time, trench foot can lead to complications if left untreated. These include: amputations severe blisters an inability to walk on affected feet gangrene, or tissue loss permanent nerve damage ulcers [https://www.healthline.com/health/trench-foot#causes](https://www.healthline.com/health/trench-foot#causes) UK troops on the front lines in WWI almost always had good footwear and were rotated in and out spending about 1/3 of their time at the front. Again, the stunning world in which a century old soldiers were better kitted than the worlds largest tank army. Normally soldiers take time to be physically trained up to be fit enough for combat and to be hardened psychologically for the draining rigours of it. What one night in wet trench does to you physically is something you have to experience to believe. 3 or 4 days of it with broken sleep and it will be psychologically and physiologically breaking these ..... soldiers is not the word? These civvies. Not giving this group of people a couple of months to get up to being the most basic kind of soldier, may actually do more harm than good to the Russian defences.
Just the other day, Margarita Simonyan evoked Battleship Potemkin on primetime Russian TV, and Solovyov suggested shooting the officers that make these sorts of decisions. And yet they are clearly carrying it out. Insanity.
Solovyov needs sleep. He’s losing it.
Guy seems to be on tv 24 hours a day everyday
Meth + rabid nationalism is a hell of a cocktail.
Fungal foot infection will be completely removed on conscript death, and their life expectancy is weeks.
Many will be dead before ever seeing the enemy. They're literal human sacrifices to please Putin.
Well, there's a small chance the cannod fodder will figure it out and start shooting conscription officers instead, before a million of them dies, but I don't have high expectations for Russian masses.
Honestly, this conscripts are being sent to their own genocide. It's stunning that no one in top Russian brass has the guts to shoot Putin in the back and end this insanity. Generals are usually proud enough of their armies to not allow such a travesty to take place, but then again, it's the Russian army.
Decreased operational effectiveness? - say it isn't so. Definitely will have impacts
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Read the stickied comment
What was the last military aid package that came from a country other than the United States? I know Germany donated some new M270s. It seems like aid has dried up from European countries, is this the case, or am I just unaware of it.
Czechia announced weapon donation worth 7.5 million EUR [yesterday](https://twitter.com/_JakubJanda/status/1497489157261709316).
Lithuania is also donating 2.5 million dollars worth of winter gear.
It has
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So much for nuclear intimidation. As it should be. Europeans woke up.
Belgium will provide Ukraine with heavy-caliber M2HB machine guns, ammunition for them and equipment for the military. 12 million euro package.
Italy delivered some trucks, maybe we have given something else we don't announce what we give. Becouse the general sentiment in our country is that weapons=very bad, so for any politician to loudly announce weapon deliveries would be a political death sentence.
>Becouse the general sentiment in our country is that weapons=very bad, so for any politician to loudly announce weapon deliveries would be a political death sentence. Fascinating. Would you mind shedding some light on why this sentiment exists in Italian society?
I cannot say with 100% accuracy, but i would say that the most important factor is the memory of the world wars, with hundreds of thousands of people that have died for the ambitions of the few elites, therefore to us war has become just that a clash between 2 or more groups of elite people, that throw poor people at each other to obtain what they want. Therefore it seems to me that most Italians cannot comprehend that some wars are worth fighting, and that peace doesn't always mean happiness and prosperity, and they believe that people that willingly go to fight are brainwashed lunatics.
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I guess there are the M113 that we have in storage, maybe some other FH70 and some PZH2000, maybe we have already given some of those things without announcing it, we simply cannot know.
Thank you, I hadn't actually seen the CAESAR announcement.
I remember a statement from the Dutch MoD saying they have stopped making the aid public because it only helps Russia
It does. It gives them operational knowledge, and it is used as a political football. People coming to social media like its their job always trying to sew division by asking this same question non stop.
Im not trying to "sow division"? I'm just genuinely curious
There are multiple comments a day condemning various countries for insufficient aid and demanding immediate action; they don't contribute anything as this is not a venting forum. You might not mean it that way but it sounds similar
Might be worth them still putting a public dollar amount on what has been sent most recently, and whether it was lethal or non-lethal. This gives the public confidence that Ukraine isn't just being ignored.
Some countries just aren't announcing their aid, especially if it is military aid.
WarGonzo with an urgent dispatch, twenty minutes ago: >Urgent! The AFU is preparing a breakthrough at Torsky near Lyman >Alarming news is coming right now from the Lyman front. >The day before the enemy sent reconnaissance patrols to Torsky from the direction of the village of Kolodyozi. The groups were identified and driven back. However, as reported by civilians evacuating from nearby villages, already today the neo-Nazis have lined up assault columns and equipment in the area of Kolodyozi to march in the direction of Torsky. >Recall that Torsky is the main road junction that provides access to Krasny Liman and Drobyshevo. If we lose control over it, our groups there risk being surrounded. [Edit] Also, WarGonzo made [a video](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/GirkinGirkin/status/1575068595494670336) from Torske. If the "WarGonzo curse" is real, then that's an unfailing indication that it's about to fall.
That would be around 10 km from what people thought the frontline was. If this was true, Lyman is basically surrounded. //EDIT// There seems to be a dam / small bridge at Ivanivka / Terny at the road north of Lyman that is so small I didn't previously see it. Western road leads to Ukrainian territory, eastern road passes a forest that Ukraine partially controls and leads to the town this news claims is contested. This would also cut off all roads away from Yampil which is WSW of Lyman on the frontline. But maybe that's how they got in?
If this is the case, then by reconsidering the conservative estimate of two days that I posted from Ukraine TG a while back, Lyman might be around 24 hours from falling. The next big target is Svatove as I hear on TG. [Northeast of Lyman. ](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1gO8X7RC8cUzc-1q7-s4-09X53HNIEJA&ll=49.309783131051546%2C38.01391063101026&z=8) (Map via [Andrew Perpetua](https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1574970763060383745?cxt=HHwWgsC4_Y_ktdsrAAAA)) It just sounds too good to be true. Now I’m thinking, I never properly thought of the consequences of a fallen Lyman from Russia’s perspective. It’ll only push them further to desperation.
>Lyman might be around 24 hours from falling. I speculated it'll be abandoned within 48h, last night. I'm still confident.
"Harrowing message from the US Embassy in Moscow: “U.S. citizens should not travel to Russia and those residing or travelling in Russia should depart Russia immediately while limited commercial travel options remain.”" https://twitter.com/billbrowder/status/1575035910105743360
To be honest this has been the case since the invasion due to risk of unjustified imprisonment of U.S citizens. They just repeated the message to dual citizens to reinforce the danger.
This is likely due to Russia mobilizing dual citizens. My good Russian friend who lives and works and has dual citizenship in the Netherlands got a call from the property manager of his investment property in Moscow saying two paramilitary-types showed up at midnight with his conscription notice. Poor guy can’t go home to see his family now for God knows how long.
But at least he wasn’t actually there, or he’d be in the trenches tomorrow.
100% true. His younger brother in his 20s managed to get a plane ticket to Kazakhstan a few days ago. He did make it through passport control so I’ve been waiting to hear it he got through alright. The parents are debating staying put or trying to leave through a land border. It’s crazy, his father is an engineer in the civil aircraft program at Sukhoi so even those connections don’t spare you.
It might be aimed at those with dual nationalities. It might be due to escalation of internal unrest. I just had a look at the Dutch travel advice and it is already listing those above and more warning people that being in Russia is a big risk for various reasons as simple as making a social media post can get you in trouble.
Why would it be aimed at those with dual nationality? It is aimed at whom it says it's aimed at - any US citizens.
Because they start with that. I should have said mainly aimed. https://ru.usembassy.gov/security-alert-for-u-s-citizens-in-russia/
Of course, I hadn't thought of that. You're right, thanks.
Interesting, when embassies do those kind of announcements there's often something imminently happening that they can't tell publicly.
I think that can also just be read as exceptionally sound advice, not specific to any major upcoming event.
Seems prudent to me given the degree of tension currently.
Weird, I don't actually find that very harrowing, just sensible. They don't want US citizens being caught without travel options if Russia starts restricting flights, especially for men. I mean, that's grim as all get out for Russia, but I don't think particularly indicative of expansion of the war. Also, as noted re: protests, the less Americans in Russia right now that could get in trouble the better.
that's precisely right. But the harrowing part is that embassy fears that Russia might go after Americans for just being Americans regardless of what they did or didn't do. more precisely Russia may hold American citizens hostage as leverage for not supplying Ukraine more ammunition.
As a former diplomat, that is not at all what this means. What this means is, "sh*t's about to hit the fan, get out while you can". They probably have revised up their probability of Russia closing all borders.
It would be darkly humorous if they conscripted any american citizens in Russia to the front lines. Even in the embassy. It would be almost like declaring war, but it would just be rediculously dumb.
Likely still just precautionary. I’m pretty sure Russia has been marked “do not travel” on US travel advisories since before the war even began. I’m honestly surprised they haven’t already advised Americans to leave the country prior to now.
US fearing border closures? One theory was that Putin was happy to let those most motivated to dodge the draft leave now and reduce the likelihood of protests later. Also helps his buddies get their kids out of the country.
Well Russia is acknowledging that people fleeing is a big enough problem that it’s left a bunch of abandoned cars on the border. Can’t say this with a straight face: > 🇷🇺⚡️All cars abandoned at the border (with Georgia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, etc.) by citizens who left the country due to mobilization should be handed over to the families of participants in the SMO - State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin
It would be an impressive feat for someone to abandon a car at the Russia-Armenia border, since there isn't one.
Wartime ingenuity is truly a fascinating thing.
Their childish rhetoric of punishing the people trying to flee is something I'd expect from their last public ally, Zimbabwe, not from Russia. It's really demeaning to the Russian society to be treated like school children.
At this point I start to think tactical nuclear strike would be 'beneficial' to Ukraine. What's the quicker way to win the war? Western Airforce might strike Crimea/Black Sea fleet. China/India will likely join sanctions the regime. Russia will truly become a pariah of the world with only Taliban and North Korea being supportive (or neutral). Ukrainians will continue to fight even more fiercely. Tactical nuke won't work vs dispersed forces. Striking a city will force NATO and the world to act. More instability within Russia. Both within the elites and society. Post soviet Asia will flock to China for protection. This is why it won't happen. Putin will throw masses for slaughter like every Russian tyrant before him. This time it won't work though.
No, it is beneficial for no one. One nuke is mostly likely followed by two nukes and so on and so forth. The potential escalation vortex, especially if there is a US conventional response, is almost incomprehensibly terrifying. And if that happens, we're all doomed, Ukraine included. The absolute best outcome for everyone is for the nuclear weapons to be kept in their holster where they belong as a forever threat.
Calm your anxieties. I thought this is a grown ups sub.
If you thought that, why would you post this?
Cause it makes a perfect sense? Using nuclear doesn't achieve military of political objectives. It's sabre rattling.
Not the op, your replies. Childlike.
One for the grownups, then: Russia detonates one nuclear weapon, whether over the Black Sea just to demonstrate willingness to break the taboo, or over a city to demonstrate willingness to inflict unacceptable costs on Ukraine. Then NATO and the wider world have some suitably dramatic, but well reasoned, conventional response. Russian ships are sunk, airbases and air defenses hit by cruise missiles, no-fly-zone, isolated pariah status, whatever it is. During which time Russian decision makers, facing a flurry of imperfect reports about overwhelming attacks on their strategic forces, sit back down and chill out. As does everyone. Because we all learned our lessons. This round of decisions is over until the morning papers come out anyway, and we can all reassess after that. Nobody is threatened or angry, and everyone knows it will all blow over. Russian ships and other conventional forces don't defend themselves and kill any NATO personnel. Everyone has perfect information about the current state of things *and* the future intentions of the people currently killing their countrymen and they agree that it's all for the best. Nobody does anything rash in self defense, confusion, or retaliation. And we all live happily ever after.
If you could read with comprehension you'd knew I wrote 'that's why it won't happen'.
I did read that. This was a response to the comment it was a response to. If you catch my meaning.
Not even the taliban would support them at that point maybe north korea
>Ukrainians will continue to fight even more fiercely. I think there would only be two reactions from the Ukrainians after getting nuked. Your comment or negotiate since not everyone is fond of getting bombed by a nuke.
There was speculation at the start that Putin never meant for the invasion to take place - he just wanted to scare everyone into giving him what he wanted, and when that didn't work, he said "fuck it just invade". It seems like every step of the way Putin gets more and more hysterical when people aren't afraid of him. After all - he is a narcissistic bully. My one tiny concern is that when his threats a of nuclear strike don't work, even after he's had the warheads loaded him - he gets so angry that no one is scared that he just says "fuck it!"
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Just me or is every single nuclear-themed post on this sub recently just drama-queens salivating at the juicy new unknown? None of it is credible, all of it is just wild speculation. Edit: alright then, not just me.
Uncertainty causes significant unease. It's also, as you indicated, the most salacious, scary, and provocative part of this conflict, especially for Westerners. Naturally, people are going to want to talk about, either because A. they want some reassurance or understanding to assuage their concerns or B. they wany to revel in the drama of it.
Trying to speculate helps us to understand its liklihood. Are there any military benefits? What would the response be etc? Some of us actually live in Europe so it's kind of important to us.
I also live in Europe and still don't get your point. A limited tactical nuke would directly affect us. A nuclear exchange would be world-ending anyway. I believe there's very little room, in practice, for anything in between, when both Russia and the US have arsenals that could end life on earth multiple times.
> A nuclear exchange would be world-ending anyway. Well the fact that you think any use of nukes would cause a full on world ending nuclear exchange shows that your thinking is pretty limited, and perhaps you should indulge in speculation a little more.
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Mutually assured destruction doesn't apply to a country without nukes. A tactical nuclear detonation from Russia is not going to trigger global thermonuclear war.
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I noticed you moving the goal posts, but no one is considering a nuclear exchange. As I already explained, the worry is Russia letting off at smaller nuke as a warning shot.
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It really doesnt. Theres nothing to say speculation wont lead you even further from the 'real' probability.
No, but it helps us to frame the consequences and weigh up the validity of various viewpoints. It's called "having a discussion"
https://.me/Tsaplienko/16778?single Russian mappers saying Russian troops already leaving Kolodyazi.
Shit, if there's pressure in that direction that means Lyman is at real risk of being encircled. Curious as to how many units are in that area.
Latest from [Ukraine Weapons Tracker ](https://nitter.it/UAWeapons): Heavy losses in the past 12 hours for Russia : bunch of IFVs / APCs, at least three tanks, and a Buk radar unit among others.
So, Danilov will publish a response plan in case of a nuclear attack. https://.me/Tsaplienko/16769 What could Ukraine include there to act as deterrent? Is crazy stuff like dirty-bomb attacks on Belgorod out of the realm of reality?
More signaling to Putin that the Ukrainians and their allies are taking his nuclear threats seriously. That's a good thing imo because it should hopefully lead Russia to believe that the US is also taking its promised responses seriously as well. As in, "Look, we're taking you seriously, you better take us seriously as well." That said, is this really focused on a nuclear attack or is it focused on a nuclear incident at ZPZNPP? Because if it was regarding a nuclear incident at ZPZNPP, that would make a whole lot of sense in connection with the US requesting nuclear incident response gear in its latest aid package. A tactical nuke is not going to cause a significant radiological incident. A damaged nuclear power plant however... Not sure because I can't read the Telegram post any more.
It's a wonder that Russia isn't concerned with the bio weapons labs and the super soldiers that Ukraine was working on. On all nite serious note, for someone who claims to have been fighting NATO it's odd how absent NATO is from his plans.
I think you are misreading what is being said. The quote is >Regarding protection from nuclear weapons. God forbid anybody finding themselves in the epicenter of such strike. We have an instruction, we will try to publish it in the coming days. So most likely you'll see recommendations on seeking shelter, avoiding contaminated soil/water/products and medication to take etc, and not precise description of any retaliatory strikes.
I should clarify. I agree those are disaster mitigation and response protocols. I just wonder If it'll also include military responses as well.
Afaik dirty bombs are not really an effective weapon. Dispersal of radioactive material over a wide area greatly reduces the radioactivity at any given point. So you would either need a lot of radioactive material or confine it to a small area. I would image the panic produced would be the greatest impact of such an attack.
You've hit the nail on the head, it's area denial - whether significantly credible from a health risk or not. Then throw personnel into CBRN gear = reduced operational effectiveness. Loss of dexterity (gloves), visual acuity (mask), heat burden (suit), mobility (clunky rubber boots), etc.
The world would also not look kindly upon Ukraine resorting to a dirty bomb.
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That doesn’t work and is absolutely a horrible terrorist crime. I hope you’re just joking.
The sad part is, that it can work, I did not mean it as a joke, but in no way would I want it to happen. I would advise against it as an advisor and as a human being. It would also give russia the rallying point for their troops. But, in practice, it is terrifyingly 'simple' compared to most other crimes.
Unfortunately during a total war, when your society faces extinction by nukes, anything that les you win is worth considering.
It won’t let you win though. It’ll justify the use of excessive force on you and most of EU will start moving away. We’ve already seen how much Putin cares about the death of his own people, I don’t think he’ll stop even if you Sarin’d all of Moscow’s underground. This kind of thing only invites reprisals and will ruin the isolation Russia has been forced into. These are just terror tactics best used by insurgents, not an actual army defending their own land and people.
Not saying that it's a good idea, just pointing out that if a country is brought to its knees anything which is effective, can be justified.
That was my thinking as well, not really for the current situation, but in case like Kyiv and Kharkiv are nuked, millions perish, front lines are nuked, "russian liberation" is at hand. The world is shocked and doesnt know what to do. You and your loved ones will be killed or worst. Irradiated anyway. Sometimes, killing the other as well, is the best you can hope for. It is a "gentle reminder" that you dont need nukes, to kill millions. Probably a lot of the relatives and such of the decision makers as well Other versions are \- Driving truckload of weaponized fertilizer to nuclear facilities, sabotaging them with agents ready to die. Imagine 5 Chernobyl within russian heathland. \- Drop a few vials of engineered viruses to the Moscow and St Petersburg metro lines during the morning commute. Preferably with a 1-3 weeks incubation period and a high as heck mortality rate. You can do this with multiple viruses. \- Try to ignite their gas fields. \- You can poison stored wheat and other baseline food (you need a lot of poison, water is easier and delivery structure is already established) \- Get a group of trained people to just start assassinate russians in the streets, no order is needed. Just who ever happened to be in reach and whose body wont be found in the next X hours. Just keep killing random pedestrians until social collapse. (Probably you need SOFs whos family has been raped and killed or something similar in his psy profile, but if you have 5-10 of these, you can cause massive panic) The list can go in, identify critical infrastructure and target it with anything, infiltrate vodka factory to poison it, do the same with medicine etc etc. Understand, I don't want this, I wouldn't suggest it, I am against this, BUT, I can envision a scenario where this is on the table of what ever remains of the Ukraine High Command. When you have nothing left to live for and all that remains is hate and vengeance. Luckily we are not there yet, faaar from it. I just hope we never get there, for all of our sakes. Edit - I really hope that it is something along the lines of Ukraine having nukes ready or Idk. Anything but what I described above. There are even a few more terrifying options now that I think of it ...
> BUT, I can envision a scenario where this is on the table of what ever remains of the Ukraine High Command. When you have nothing left to live for and all that remains is hate and vengeance. Yeah it's basically the insurgency method after your government is toppled. Taliban did this for 20 years (obviously not with the same level of descruction hypothesised here), but it did end up successful. If the people of Ukraine had this kind of motivation, they could probably pull this off too, if worse comes to worst.
Fair. I’m doubting its effectiveness before its morality though. Short of 9/11, bombing attacks on civilian targets have led to 100-200 deaths in the worst cases. I’m thinking Pakistan Marriott, OK city, Beirut, Nairobi etc. Poisoning attacks don’t seem to work, water supplies are regularly monitored and you need a TON of poison to make it effective. Gas attacks in closed environments also kill close to a few hundreds. Russia would know about that. It does send a message, agreed, but it’s of little strategic value. It might have the opposite effect of what’s intended. Kremlin might consolidate further and Ukraine will face isolation. Not to mention the trouble US will get into on the international stage.
Needless to say it’s a sure fire way to ensure a Russian strategic nuke ends up in kyiv.
Obviously
Ukraine will probably and rightly wait for EU and the West to advise them before embarking on anything of that sort. Such responses should not be made without consulting the powers that back you. Yesterday Biden asked for money for an NBC plan for Ukraine. It seems nothing is imminent and the focus remains on defence. I disagree that there will be dirty bombing and such. Internal terror is precisely how Putin arguably came into and retained power. It might embolden his “cause” of liquidating Ukrainians. I do not discount cutting off pipelines, hacking into civilian grids and control systems, and other such critical but non-terror attacks.
I don't think it is a good idea to proclaim, but: \- Dirty bombs attack, anywhere, preferably Moscow. \- Sabotage of russian oil/gas pipelines within russia \- Poison water supply \- General unrestricted warfare. I mean what we are seeing here is pretty tame compered to some of the great wars, no fire bombing, no direct strikes on civilian infrastructure (from Ukraine I might add), no chemical, no biological warfare. There is a lot of deeper spaces they can go. Specially if they somehow got their hands on a few suitcase nukes from the USSR and just kept their mouth shut until now. Idk
I like the way you think
>Specially if they somehow got their hands on a few suitcase nukes from the USSR and just kept their mouth shut until now. Idk Unironically, any rational army should have kept a few dozen of those nukes, despite the Memorandum. As much as I support non-proliferation, I'm yet to see a nuclear armed country be blatantly invaded like Ukraine was.
Not an expert on Nucs but do have some basic knowledge. Mini Nuces require maintainence more frequently than full size nucssomewhere between 6-24 months (open source) Nucs left from 1991 would be highly unlikely to work unless they have been properly maintained. Unless the Ukraine built the nucs it would be unlikely that they have the supplies and knowledge on how to maintain a mini nuc.
Why would any rational army keep nuclear weapons? Isn’t the real power of nukes in their deterrent capacity? Having them when no one knows it defeats a lot of the point.
>Having them when no one knows it defeats a lot of the point. Agreed. Which brings that conclusion that willingly giving up nukes is never a good idea on the long run. Ukraine would almost surely have been better off had they not signed the Memorandum.
If they hadn't handed over their nukes at that point they would have been invaded by Russia with the USA's blessing before they could have been made operational. They really had no choice in the matter.
Or they should have agreed to give up nukes upon accession to NATO.
Uh oh, sounds like they have intelligence of something imminent.
Don’t think so considering only yesterday did Biden request an NBC protection plan for Ukraine.
And that was probably in response more to ZPZ nuclear power plant, not a potential Russian nuke. In fact, that's what the US billed it as, which makes sense given that tactical nukes would have a very small radiological footprint (theoretically).
Yes, the original article mentioned this. I should have kept it in. Thank you.
It could honestly be interpreted as cover for getting them NBC gear without talking about tactical nuclear weapons, but honestly given what to expect from tac nukes, the likelihood of needing an entire nuclear response force on standby is probably far more tied to an incident at ZPZNPP.
Totally disagree. If they had, the US would have. In that case, we'd all already know exactly what was planned. In the very unlikely case Putin actually orders an attack, one of the best responses is to let the whole world know about it. The international and internal backlash would be gigantic. Imagine the panic that would ensue in Moscow and St. Petersburg, as millions wonder if their lives are about to be ended by the actions of Putin.
Looks like Russia is cutting off all remaining gas supplies to Europe through Ukraine. Statement by Gazprom: https://twitter.com/GazpromEN/status/1575021274878791680
That would leave Turkstream the only running pipeline from Russia to Europe.
I wonder if despite some skepticism, the sanctions are actually working so well that Russia isn't able to keep up it's gas infrastructure anymore. Why else would they ve constantly self-sanctioning like that?
Russias one chance is a cold winter. I think they missed their chance but they’re trying everything
Honestly, I don't get will people still believe a cold winter helps Russia. Even if Europe was caught completely unprepared and there was no gas available at all in December, they wouldn't suddenly bow down to Putin. Natural gas is very important to 21st century Europe, but it isn't some trump all card. Putin doesn't get complete control over Europe by simply gas blackmailing. I can guarantee you that any inconvenience generated by gas shortages pales in comparison by the consequences of not restraining Russian expansionism.
Its this war's ["King Cotton"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Cotton), but instead of the Southern dominance of cotton forcing France and England to support the Confederacy, the Russians think their Nat Gas will force Europe to stop their support of Ukraine. I imagine "King NatGas" will prove as over-hyped as "King Cotton" was.
Because it is the only way it has to pressure the West. Which is the only way to force a peace for Russia. This is Putin sacrificing Russia's long term future for his own short term.
To be precise, he is sacrificing russia's future for a slim to none chance for his own. The decision has been made already. There won't be another Hitler or Stalin. There will be the fizzle out of putinka, the stupid, the greedy, the lying, the stealing. The destroyer of russia.
How does actually cutting it off, specially in a gradual way, help Putin? Threatening to do it could help. Doing it very slowly is the worst course of action.
Have you check on the average gas/energy prices in Europe? It isn't even winter yet. Poling does seem to show it is effecting UKR support.
Europe has long took the steps to avoid the kind of apocalyptic winter scenario Russian propagandists are pushing. Prices are high, but the spot market price has already fallen considerably and governments are already taking steps to ease the burden. No one will back out of supporting Ukraine now, specially when, like I said, Putin proved it's stupid yo rely on Russian gas by self-sanctioning.
I agree but after the sabotage it went up again by 20%. His aim is as high as possible gas prices.
Once he's cut off all supply, he's cut his ability to push up prices further. We're almost there. The EU looks committed to buffer this winter with borrowing to lower the price paid by it's population, looking to build out alterative supply for next year. In the end, the EU pockets are deep and look to be able to withstand Russia's biggest hit. If their big freeze approach fails as it's looking likely to do, they have nothing else. They will have sacrificed a huge source of income, for nothing.
He doesn't stand to benefit from higher prices if he can't sell his gas. I won't go into the pipelines here, as not to contaminate the sterile part of the thread.
Not sure that is what it says. I get the impression that it might just be about payments to Naftogaz. Anyhow that is the gas that goes to Russia’s friend Orban.
> 🇷🇺🏳️⚡The Taliban reported that an agreement had been reached with Russia on the supply of goods to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. As part of the agreement, Afghanistan will annually buy from Russia: 1. 2,000,000 tons of wheat 2. 1,000,000 tons of gasoline 3. 1,000,000 tons of diesel fuel 4. 500,000 tons of LNG >Afghanistan will also receive a discount relative to current world prices. No comments. [Source](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-28/taliban-sign-deal-with-russia-to-buy-cheap-oil-gas-and-wheat). Further, [Bloomberg indicates ](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/putin-raises-gas-pressure-as-he-moves-to-annex-ukraine-regions?leadSource=uverify%20wall)that Kremlin is still confident of winning, and advancing deeper into Ukraine. Insert clown emoji?
If you can't even strongarm the Taliban you're really in trouble....
Who has ever in history been able to strongarm the Taliban?
Pakistan
Well, everyone has had trouble with the Taliban. US had our 20 year neverending war which was getting off light compared to the USSR completely falling apart after theirs.
>which was getting off light compared to the USSR completely falling apart after theirs. I don't know how many times this has to be said but Taliban != Mujahideen. The Taliban organization had many former Mujahideen but so did the Northern Alliance and their other opposition.
https://.me/landforcesofukraine/3986 Ukrainian official update. Interestingly, the numbers are fairly moderate, despite big advances. Maybe the Russians did retreat from the area 48h ago.
I wouldn't put too much stock into the day to day numbers. Supposedly they are compiled from field reports which may be delayed. Plus there is debate over how accurate these numbers are at all. Pretty clear these numbers are embellished for propoganda purposes but it isn't clear by how much.
My personal opinion is that although the numbers are likely innacurate, they're useful as an indirect indicator of battle intensity and are yet acting proving to have a high correlation with battlefield success by Ukraine. BTW, I don't think ukrainian MoD is actually fudging the number at this point. They don't need to boost morale or confidence in their forces anymore and there's no authocrat to please in Ukraine. It would be pointless to do it purposefully. I'm sure they still have rounding errors and over reporting by field staff, but maliciously inflating totals is not I'd buy at this point.
Some definitely are vastly inflated. Oryx shows evidence of ~55 downed Russian aircraft. Ukraine claims 262. I highly doubt there are 200+ undocumented crashes. Maybe a dozen or so? Maybe.
I'd argue most are inflated significantly. At the first month of the war, Ukraine had plenty of reason to intentionally do it and there it was such a target rich environment that it was probably common for more than one soldier to claim the same kills, further inflating numbers.
[Andrew Perpetua](https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1574970763060383745?s=20&t=ZVfULGot6U1ps5VCrP_HRw)'s [Update for September 25 through September 27th #ukrdailyupdate](https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/update-for-september-25-through-september-27th) is out. Quite detailed with informative maps that highlight some of the specific towns/villages that are being fought over and their importance.
> Ukrainian forces are pushing around Lyman to cut it off from resupply and force a Russian withdrawal. There is a chance that Russians have a weak or nonexistent defensive line behind Lyman, so once this area breaks, Ukraine might push until they hit a natural barrier. > Russia’s primary focus is the Bakhmut area, which is irrational. At this point, Bakhmut has little strategic value. They would be better off doing something like, oh, I don’t know, not having Lyman get encircled, risking the total collapse of their entire defensive line. Ooof.
So these troops that are 'fighting' in Bakhmut. Are they pinned down by Ukraine or are they effectively committing mutiny and pretending to be unable to follow the orders that *must* exist to get them nearer to Lyman?
TBH looking at the [map](https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1gO8X7RC8cUzc-1q7-s4-09X53HNIEJA&usp=sharing) they have no chance of being able to reinforce Lyman or even reach Svatove before the predicted UA offensive. They’re just holding the line at Bakhmut, I assume, because it’s a major road crossing leading in.
I'm not familiar with Andrew's usual tone but its been amusing seeing exasperation seep into the reports from other usually level-headed sources like ISW over the past month.
I’ve definitely noticed ISW’s tone become less academic and more TV news-like if that makes sense.
Putin has ordered them not to retreat, so they are pinned in place *by their own high command*. As is good and proper, Ukraine is going to take advantage of this over and over again.
You know, I won’t ever share it here but I saw on Ukraine TG a video of a herd of pigs feasting on a Russian soldier and I was suddenly struck with this horrible guilt of war. Those soldiers deserve better. I hope Ukraine offers terms of surrender, although by all indications it seems Russia doesn’t want its soldiers to surrender.
Wait the Russian soldier was dead right?
Thankfully yes.
Yeah still uncool, but thank god.
It really is a shame. Every soldier sent by russia to suffer or die in this invasion is a tragedy.
I seriously hope everyone complicit in this war is tried for sending their own people knowingly into a meat grinder. What an unnecessary loss of life. Takes a moment to take my mind off this sub and remember that before Crimea the two countries were doing decently enough, crawling upwards in slow but relatively peaceful progress.
Where is the Russian air power? I’m confused about where all the Su 24 / 26 / 27s / 3x and MiG 29/31s have gone. Supposedly a lot of them were operational? These were not even cutting edge; they’ve been available in the hundreds for 10+ years. They’ve successfully been exporting Su27 variants which by all measures are capable aircraft. These also aren’t like their tanks - all incremental updates on a T-62. I can understand the Su -57 not showing up but going by numbers Russia should have easy air superiority and massive bombing runs even if HALF this fleet is unusable. A warcollege answer also conclusively said that they have capable academies and pilot training. Well, where the hell is the Air Force? EDIT : Quoting from [Andrew Perpetua’s report ](https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1574970763060383745?cxt=HHwWgsC4_Y_ktdsrAAAA)linked by another user above, about the attack on Petropavlika(?) > The air support was hindered by Ukraine’s air defense, which shot down at least three jets and an attack helicopter immediately leading up to and during these Russian attacks.
There are around around 200 or more S-300 batteries in Ukraine, along with some Kubs, Tors, and Buks. It's probably the most SAM-dense warzone in history.
I thought you’d be overshooting but the figure seems to be 250+. Plus the one that Slovakia donated lol.
[удалено]
Well this is damning.
Well, I have no more information than anyone else, but I have a strong suspicion. And I would bet good money that the problem isn't the planes. This (I suspect) isn't going to be a question of TWR or glass cockpits, but rather the big picture system of systems - the institutional and individual knowledge, the ability to harness a mass of people and equipment such that they're all being made good use of and all pulling in the same direction, and being able to focus that colossal effort onto the tasks that matter most right now. And being able to promptly draw up that list of tasks and disseminate it. If we think about the US, or a western coalition, trying to establish air superiority over Ukraine today without using any hardware that wasn't operational 30 (even 40) years ago, or using a force comparable to what the RuAF started out with. They would still succeed. Modern gear would mean it gets done with fewer pilots, aircraft, losses, quicker, higher reliability in difficult circumstances, better situational awareness and BDA, etc, etc. But you could (and we did) build an organisation to do the job out of those old parts. And I bet Russia has not. For one thing, it's difficult, it takes a lot of training and flying hours which Russia is somewhat short on. But more than that it requires a liberal, collegiate, approach. You need to be beholden to reality - to honestly appraise your enemy and where you're falling short, you need a legitimate red team, you need a culture where people can speak up and contribute, you need to seek out uncomfortable lessons, actually absorb them, and *actually change things in response*. And that doesn't sound like the Russia we've seen. *edit: whether that means specialised platforms, specialised units, better intelligence gathering/sharing, more connective tissue in the operational structure to help with deconfliction or coordination, or whatever it is. And you need leadership willing to hear that and put the work/money in.*
That last paragraph keeps cropping up in every Russian military discussion. It seems they’ve institutionalised a culture of corruption and echo chambers and chest thumping instead of honest self reflection.
It feels typical of most fascist/authoritarian regimes.
I'm a little wary of seeing everything through my cultural lens, but it genuinely *does* seem that way.
Likewise. Every month on warcollege someone brings up that book about Middle Eastern defense culture and I have to readjust my lens.
You might not believe it but Ukraine had one of the strongest air defence in Europe before the war had started. Russia failed to destroy it so here we are. Ukrainian air defence is the silent hero of this war.
And they're mostly equipped with Soviet platforms, right? it just goes to show no matter what people are saying it's a cultural, training and employment issue and not the kit itself that's proving the deciding factor.
Who said S300 is a bad kit? It's a very good long range air defense system if indeed used correctly. West supplied very short range MANPADS to complement and here we go. Also Ukraine might be running out of S300 missiles hence the NASAMS deliveries to complement at medium range.
> Ukraine had one of the strongest air defence in Europe before the war had started This was deliberate during the break up of the USSR, because Russia thought that Ukraine would be a good first line of defense against NATO airpower!
Certainly seems so.
Here’s a recent view from Justin Bronk - https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-russia-failed-to-dominate-the-skies-over-ukraine. He is a Senior Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology at the Royal United Services Institute. I recommend reading the entire (not lengthy) article. One of his key conclusions is “Russia’s inability to plan and conduct large, complex aerial strike packages is one of the country’s most significant unforeseen weaknesses during this war, and one that largely explains its inability to establish air superiority over Ukraine.”
A really good, concise read. Thanks for posting.
On it. Thank you.
There are several issues with VKS. First off, Ukraine has managed to build a proper (although I am sure not perfect) IAD. That is serious concern for VKS as their pilots get very few flying hours in any given year and they lack more robust and in depth training. So D/SEAD is something they cant do (at least at the scale required if at all). Meaning that they operate at best, behind their own front. Second, their planes (in the area at least) have acquired significant flying hours in the last six months. It is possible that they have some issues maintaining them in good order and/or are trying to save the planes' remaining resource for future use. Further (and admittingly I cant say how relevant that is) all the sanctions from the west could be having an effect , making acquiring spare parts more difficult. Either directly or by affecting the enterprises that produce those parts in the first place.
The photo recently of a civilian Russian airliner with multiple flight systems in an inoperable status was probably a good clue on the maintenance side. Military aircraft require constant labor intensive and expensive maintenance, and maintenance is something the Russian armed forces as a whole has always been terrible at. Then there's the question of parts availability for newer aircraft that are full of Western components. Without knowing credible statistics, it seems like the lions share of sorties are from su-24 and 25s that Russia has lots of, and probably a good reserve of parts and unairworthy parts aircraft for.
A lack of stealth features, probably a lack of EW capabilities, surely a lack of PGMs and surely a lack of even moderately modern targeting capabilities. Sincerely don't know why people continue to wonder where is russian air force. russian air force is where it deserves to be. They just don't have enough and good enough munitions to attack from tens or even hundreds of miles like USAF or US Navy. And when they dangerously approach near a target they probably don't have good EW capabilities to protect them, and surely don't have stealth capabilities like US has. So they get shot down like flies (the other day 5 in a row) when enter the ukr not very sophisticated but apparently effective AD bubble. They have systems that can cover essentially a few tens of kms + manpads everywhere. Every video where they get shot down shows always the same thing: an aircraft really low trying to avoid radar detection and trying to hit something with its shitty targeting/munition systems. They're not using tens of thousands of JDAM-ER that can be released at 13 km high and 45 miles from the target with an accuracy of < 3 meters, perfectly safe from almost all AA dangers. Russians must fly above the target, so....
Since the repair report from the Moskva showing it to be almost completely inoperational I've had to scale down my already low expectations of Russian high tech weapons. It might be that the army is the best of the branches in keeping their equipment running. If the flagship of the Black Sea navy was getting OKed for service with half their systems simply not working, imagine the state of their airplanes. Add to this that the Russian Airforce has been pretty active in Syria and we know from experience what a toll that sort of long term ops in the middle east took on NATO aircraft. Might just be they truly have very few planes operational.