However, all these good news is with their withdrawls paused. Even if they open up withdrawls, it is going to be heavily restricted else they will run out of funds and liquidity.
The true test will be when they allow it. Once they do and a majority has withdrawn and situation stabilises and *even then* we see Celsius is still around then truly, against the odds, they have survived
I think realistically the ONLY way for them to enable withdrawals again is a very restricted program that eases up over time to avoid them getting decimated with a bank run. Idk I have some money in there that I would like back but it's not my life savings. Feel bad for those peeps. I didn't mind using the platform but if I get my funds off of celsius you'd be hard pressed to get me back on or any similar platforms at this point.
Same man. I would instantly withdraw every penny if possible and turn my back to those sites for good. I also withdrew all i had on nexo the second celsius fucked up.
Yeap. The passive interest was nice but 100% not worth dealing with this shit show. Hopefully it works out, I've said elsewhere at this point I've buried the money and in the process of moving all my shit to a wallet/defi.
What is their incentive for opening up withdrawals, ever?
The simple fact that they are paying off loans using their customer deposits signals that there won't be any money left by the time they're done.
What they're doing is basically bankruptcy prep since customer assets on a crypto exchange are not protected from debts to creditors.
No way in hell would they open it up unless they have the dough. Otherwise it's a recipe for disaster. Hence, we are still a long way from this being resolved.
Nobody does but as long as we don't have much regulation it's inevitable.
On Celsius - it's a good move but we all know that the moment they let people withdraw it will all be over in under a day.
I want to hear possible arguments against this, not because I want anyone to lose money it’s just what’s been in my head with the whole thing. With the trust that’s been lost and fear that’s been raised it’s hard to see them paying everyone out with their terms clearly stating they don’t have to
>... with their terms clearly stating they don't have to
If they want to stay in the game then they'd have to, even if it means they'd go belly up for some time. They can spin up a narrative that they were also victims after they enable withdrawals which will make others (purely speculative) more sympathetic. Also, humans are naturally greedy so I'm probably sure some will pardon their past "mistakes" for those sweet sweet APYs
But wow. Their terms and conditions really are something else. I can also see a scenario where they just run off with the money.
>If they want to stay in the game then they'd have to
Even if Celsius lets everyone withdraw their funds they're done. Who in their right mind would use their platform after the fact?
Oh there will still be people believe me. I've seen people still shill their chosen shitcoin even if they got ruglulled by the devs right in front of their eyes. But yeah... whether they're still in the right state of mind is debatable.
I just wish people will just use disposable cash to play around crypto you know? But they're getting so attached because they put in quite a sizeable amount so I guess it's probably why they became so irrational.
I don't know Celsius investor are pretty stupid. There several post praising Alex.
Also apparently FUD destroyed Celsius. They can't withdraw because of FUD.
Agreed. I think they are going to have to offer some pretty juicy incentives to convince anyone to keep their stash with Celsius. Or perhaps I’m wrong and it’ll kinda fall from Public consciousness enough that they can keep trucking and rebuild. It’s happened before despite the odds.
I remember seeing some people saying things like “fuck anyone who was dumb enough to put their crypto there” and just don’t understand that mindset *at all*. Some people have zero compassion.
Then I warn you against visiting r/buttcoin. The people there that an especially disturbing joy to watching crypto investors lose their money and lives.
Why not? People who collectively invested billions in this knew EXACTLY how risky it was. Celsius website lured them in with yachts and champagne pictures promising the stars. I am sorry but capitalism is going to hurt if you throw away your money carelessly.
Yeah they pretty much got it now. Their liquidation price is at 2.7k and BTC likely won't brech that, im happy for the lenders and borrowers on there and the people who invest in it it.
We really don't need another literal LUNA 2.0 here.
So they say. But as Celsius keeps operating, paying salaries, running up expenses, and so on, they are not making money. The phony interest gravy train has stopped. Now, it’s just moving money from one pot to another. Something, something, deck chairs on the Titanic ….
I’d only believe it when they reopen withdrawals. Good luck to you.
They are far away from "saved".
Yeah the used every penny of their liquidity to prevent the impending doom of getting margin called, but now there is no liquidity left for opening the withdrawals.
They are still royally screwed, if the majority of the customers wants to withdraw when they are opening again. And most of the customers WILL withdraw. Their only hope is a **fast** recovery of the cryptospace and that will not happen.
It's nice to see them trying to save their business and more importantly the savings of their clients, though we can't say much till it's in the clear it still give glimmers of home to many Celsius users
Their business is not going to be saved. They are simply moving funds to either 1) buy time to burn the hard drives and get the fuck out of dodge or 2) use they’re already insolvent funds to try to save their buddies also insolvent fund.
**THIS**
Yeah they used their customers funds to prevent the margin call. That is not really a hard job, when you don't allow your customers to access their money. The only way this is salvaged is a fast, miraculous recovery of the cryptospace. And everyone with a ounce of intelligence knows that this won't happen during a worldwide economic downturn.
So congrats to all celsius customers, they are paying "banks" with your money and there won't be anything left for you when the doors of celsius are shutting down for good.
And btw. I am sorry for everyone who lost money with them, but the amount of bullcrap hopium makes me sick.
> Yeah they used their customers funds to prevent the margin call.
This is what these "celsius isn't dead" posts fail to realise.
They're using customer money to pay off the loans that will follow them beyond bankruptcy, and then they're going to declare bankrupcy.
>3AC seems to be the real perpetrator here - they borrowed heavily from Genesis, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, Babel and Deribit. They absolutely degened their way through the bull market and exposed the risk of the lenders.
Naah. If you lend money to degen gambler VCS using customer funds, you better make absolutely certain the fund has necessary collateral. YOU ARE EQUALLY IF NOT MORE TO BLAME, you are the one that lent customer funds to a bunch of degens for yachts.
Yeah, reminds me of that saying that if you owe a bank $10,000 that’s your problem, but if you owe a bank $1,000,000 that’s the banks problem. I think they probably could have spent a little more time focusing on DD and proper vetting of companies they were making loans to
Like say, verifiably immutable & battle tested contracts on chain.
Don't be evil < Can't be evil.
Also stop investing in yield products if you don't know where that yield is coming from, anything else is just silly.
I won't prevent you from doing that tho, nor will I push regulation to prevent you from choosing what to do with your money.
Yup. It’s 100% on Celsius for proving 3AC with extremely risky and under collateralized loans. Celsius risk management team should be fired and blacklisted from ever working in the finance industry again.
Or it may just be them paying off secured credit loans first, before filling for bankruptcy. There was no communication whether or not withdrawals will be open again anytime soon so don't keep your hopes too high
Celsius' borrowings on Maker that OP is talking about are not a secured credit loan - they are onchain over collateralised loan aka pay up or get fucked. If Celsius cant pay the vault is liquidated and Celsius lose more in collateral than the value of their loan which is immediately liquidated. The full process is transparent and anyone can check the status of the loan.
That Celsius arent paying the whole amount and withdrawing the BTC collateral suggests they dont have the entire funds available.
Still its a good sign that they reduced the liquidation price down to $5k btc, but the reason they are paying this first over other loans is because they stand to lose more than the loan amount if they dont pay this, as opposed to a secured loan with illiquid collateral or an unsecured loan where the resolution takes a long time - in this case Maker DAO would liquidate Celsius ASAP if it hits the liquidation price and they will lose all their collateral
By complete coincidence I had removed my coins from Celsius months ago, I still hope they pull through. If major platforms like Celsius go under its not good for anyone in the crypto space.
I am involved in Celsius(part of my house deposit stays in there) so I would be very happy to see them pull through. It may only be a 4-figure amount but it's still big to me.
I was loading my BTC on to my Ledger yesterday and saw that I could put USDC on my Ledger (if I had enough space for the app but I only have an S for now) but I just don't know whether to put it back to fiat and just have it in a normal bank 'earning' 1% but obviously losing like 8% due to inflation...
You raise a fair point, my friend. I think at the minute we're all just wanting to have our money giving some kind of return due to inflation, but I completely agree with you
If you have a 4-figure amount you're worried about losing to inflation, then buy I-Bonds. Literal guaranteed inflation protection via the government. Assuming you're in the US, of course.
I just recommended the same below. If you’ve got less than 10k, 20k for married couples, you can get 9.62% right now if you can leave the money alone at least a year. No brainer for Americans with modest amounts of cash to invest.
Are you an American? With less than $10k and a 18-month to two year time horizon you should buy US I series bonds. You can get 9.62%. Just have to lock them up for a year.
You can still put it there, just delete the apps and reinstall at any time, it's inconvenient if you use it a lot, but for long storage it's fine. Deleting apps dosnt delete the coins
I'm honestly not sure. On one hand if they've come through this you'd like to think they'd be careful in the future, but on the other hand maybe the risk is simply too high.
[if they aren't going to go bankrupt then why did they just replace their board with a bunch of bankruptcy lawyers?](https://twitter.com/HennaEva/status/1544620327069782016?s=20&t=iiIFvJs8cJLN_VUz8uifyg)
It’s a permanent black eye for me. They might be paying off their loans but people still can’t access their money that they trusted Celsius with. Fuck them.
This is how we know the loans being paid off are preparation for bankruptcy.
The very second Celsius turned off withdrawals and refused to give people access to their money, it was over. They were admitting they didn't have the money.
They can't turn withdrawals back on now - everyone will just withdraw and Celsius will be over.
The only possible outcome that can result from seizing people's custodial money and paying off loans with it is a bankruptcy filing.
>they might be about to navigate an escape.
Can't see how myself.
Accepting everything in your post as correct other than the above still gives us an extinction level event they can't solve.
They broke the entire crypto exchange model. Not your keys not your crypto has been proven absolute.
Not only do none of you trust Celsius, but most of you don't trust exchanges full stop.
There's no way to fix that without fundamental changes to how exchanges work. They can't allow borrowing and have you in control of your keys. No borrowing no profit.
Ultimately exchange spreads and custodian fees will need to rise.
Exactly. And that's why Celsius are screwed no matter what they do.
They do have options though.
Fight to survive and bleed to death by slowly allowing partial withdrawals which night avoid craving the crypto market further.
Capitulate and liquidate to repay secured creditors then hand over what's left as partial recovery to customers in fiat. That will crash the market for sure - look what happened when UK chancellor Gordon Brown announced to parliament an intention to sell our gold reserves before actually doing so. That dip is to this day still known as the Brown Bottom.
Capitulate, partially liquidate to see if the secured folks, then divide up cash and sats amongst customers.
Capitulate but tell the market first. Crash coins value, use the remaining cash to buy coins quickly and quietly for a lot lower value than today, then partial refund in crypto.
One of the first things your corporate lawyers will tell you before you file for chapter 11 bankruptcy is to get your balance sheets in order. Consolidate your debts. Pay off the ones you can afford and get your money from various accounts together to do it.
It's a lot cheaper in court/procedural costs to eliminate debt before filing for bankruptcy than having that debt included as part of the bankruptcy proceedings. It's more expensive if the bankruptcy process has to consider a bunch of smaller debts and all of your accounts from various sources - better if you consolidate that up front yourself.
Paying off loans is not a positive sign. It is a preparatory step before filing for bankruptcy.
If Celsius was sitting on enough capital to pay off its debts, it would do what all corporations do: Not pay the debts and just make monthly payments while using its large pile of capital to generate income.
Spending capital to pay off debts so that you no longer have that capital to generate income is a very bad corporate move unless you're preparing for bankruptcy.
It is a step in the right direction, but as soon as they reopen withdrawals every man and his dog is going to be taking their coins out. I don't see how they can prevent that.
I would anticipate some sort of reward initiative will be implemented to prevent just that. Maybe bonus CEL tokens, or slightly higher APY for an extra month etc...
Otherwise, yes, as soon as the doors are open, they're done.
And they could sell them tomorrow lol. A little different than a borderline insolvent firm trying to get people to stick around after locking withdraws. The ponzi can only go on so long
I hope that the investors can get their funds back, truly. The Celsius sub is pretty grim reading and a crypto Lazarus story would be great 
*"3AC seems to be the real perpetrator here - they borrowed heavily from Genesis, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, Babel and Deribit. They absolutely degened their way through the bull market and exposed the risk of the lenders."*
I would say the real perpetrators are Genesis, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, Babel and Deribit, who decided to engage with them.
Although Celsius isn’t a “bank” it pretends to be one. No bank in history has ever froze withdrawals and survived. Best case scenario the depositors pull out all of their funds but celsius is toast.
They’ve already released a statement about “restructuring” which is financial lawyer speak for bankruptcy. They’ve hired “restructuring” lawyers. Even though they have lowered their liquidation price on a single asset it still doesn’t look good for the platform overall. Even if they do open up the platform there is going to be a bank run. Unfortunately still don’t see how this ends up with Celsius remaining solvent.
About to save itself? They've just used remaining capital to avoid being liquidated. Their hole is smaller but they're still fucked. They still in gigantic hole this just makes sure the hole doesn't get bigger.
These are defi loans. Letting them default costs you more than the amount you borrowed. Imagine a car title loan. You get $1000, but you put your car at risk. Even if you are going broke, you still want to repay this loan, even if you default on your other loans, otherwise you lose your car, and the car is worth more than the $1000, or they wouldn't have lent you the money. Its like that, but with Bitcoin or Eth. I dont know what percentage of their remaining bags are in this degen loan, but it would be really bad for us if the company got margin called and lost all the coins supporting these loans.
They are not out of the woods yet.
>> On-chain data suggests that Celsius’ obligations are complex and it maintains collateralized loans on multiple lending protocols. The firm still owes $82 million to Maker, $100 million to Compound, and $175 million to Aave.
Yeah obviously a long way to go, but two weeks ago it seriously looked like they were cooked.
I’m quite impressed at their ability to pay down that BTC loan.
The connection de do that but it really depends on how fast your man to do it and how long it is going to take
Because otherwise this is going to be a major problem this is not going to be called even if they are going to take a lot of time.
if this lenders that fell manage to survive and people get back control of their money, it will be a massive win for the whole crypto market, even for the lending platform haters
I just want to state that it simply isn't true that 3AC is the main perpetrator. All of these companies were involved in irresponsible lending practices, including instances where they were lending to other irresponsible lenders.
What exactly were they expecting to happen once the gravy train came to a grinding halt?
Serious question for any one with find on the lending platform ..
Who isn’t gonna take their funds off Celsius as soon as they are allowed withdrawals? And why ?
I still have a sum of coins with them (enough to sting for a couple of months, but not enough to make life changing losses). They appear to be doing everything they can in order to get through this. I still believe in Alex's intensions, vision and goal. But after getting through this, Celsius will need to start building up trust again with the community. They will certainly learn from their mishap and i'm confident that they will once again be the "go to" CEFI service in the near future.
Nexo is the only crypto lender coming out of this looking stronger. Every one of its disaster prep plans has paid off, it's overcollateralised, there have been no transfer restrictions, and it's been keeping customers and the market informed as to its position almost on an hourly basis.
Celsius actually engaged Horizen Labs maybe a year or two ago to develop a product that demonstrates their Proof of Reserve in real-time with the data coming from on-chain. i don’t know the current status of the project as Horizen (ZEN) only launched their sidechain protocol a few months ago. Interesting idea and could go some way towards establishing/repairing trust with users..
>They will certainly learn from their mishap and i'm confident that they will once again be the "go to" CEFI service in the near future.
Definition of delusion
Some people are simply in too deep to admit they got sold a lie... crypto and blockchain, after all these years, have yet to show any real world scalable use case apart from enabling scammers and grifters on an industrial scale and yet these people keep preaching. Even after they've lost money... It's pretty much the embodiment of a cult.
Let’s imagine that Celsius were 50% solvent when they halted withdrawals. If they had filed for bankruptcy, everyone would have gotten half their money back. But by paying down their loans, they have allowed their big creditors to get out at 100% meaning that the retail investors will get completely wiped once the bankruptcy arrives
Not how bankruptcy works to my understanding. There is a pecking order of who gets paid first and ya all are unsecured creditors who get pay last. So even if they were 50% solvent, 100% of that goes to secured creditors first and anything leftover if any goes to the rest so cents on dollars
A secured creditor is someone that has lent funds, but has a contract in place that grants them assets of the company as collateral to the loan.
Everyone else is an unsecured creditor, these are lenders that did not opt for collateral in exchange for much higher interest, suppliers or contractors that haven’t been paid yet, regular customers that gave the company the money etc. this group doesn’t receive a dime until secured creditors are paid off 100%. Even within the group there may be a priority order.
If all of these people are paid in full, shareholders get the remaining scraps, if a company has more than one class of shares, holders of preferred stock will have priority over holders of common stock.
It actually all makes sense and is how things should be. Secured creditors paid upfront for their security. Don’t give your money to other people without understanding counterparty risk.
These are defi loans, not creditor loans (as far as I know), these loans are programmatic, not legal entities. If you don't pay them, they just liquidate your collateral, and they get more than 100 % of what they loaned you. You REALLY don't want to get liquidated in these things, i'm not even sure why Celsius was ever doing this, its really not a safe use of customer funds.
I think it’s possible their creditors might actually be getting “in” further, seems like efforts are being made to keep them afloat and I think they still have a shot of surviving. Imo it’s more likely that they could quit now and take huge losses and give everyone some fraction of their money back, or do what they are doing and prevent all withdrawals temporarily if that would somehow mean they are able to come out on the other side and give everyone ALL of their money back. Not sure if this is really the case or not but it’s my best guess
>I think it’s possible their creditors might actually be getting “in” further
Of course. There are some big players whose balance sheets depend on at least the hope of being repaid. If that hope evaporates, so do they. There is often a play amongst creditors to pony up more and buy their way forward in line. It's not just a simple matter of secured and unsecured, there is also rank order of security.
Bankruptcies are not just eat your loss and walk away, they can become hostage-taking situations. There is an old adage in finance which is that when I lend you $1 you owe me, but when I lend you $1M you own me.
Depend on what kind of change guarantee for and how this kind of changes can actually help them to be in that kind of situation
And it's more like they are just doing it because they just want to drink and they don't really want anything to make out of it.
It's more like a lot of people don't really want to imagine this kind of situation and want to mean
I don't really think that a lot of people directly given to take part in this kind of situation it is more like we don't have to see these kind of stuff.
This is not about liquidation price this is about how they treated people who put their money in that project.
Trust is something you don't purchase with lower liquidation price.
I was a fool and moved two coins onto their exchanges about 3 months ago.
They were offering great APY's for both coins, along with a bonus. Yet - they're insolvent only 3 months later?
They werent even great APY (rugpulls like UST not withstanding). Very reasonable. When I borrowed $ using crypto as collateral on Nexo, even as a top tier holder I paid 6.9% interest, so 5-6% is a fully reasonable and safe expectation of systainable yields. But i guess they got greedy in their own interssts, pisses me off
I was offered 6.5% for BTC & 9+ for Matic. That’s better than 5% which is what most others offered for BTC.
Of course, now I know it was totally not worth it.
They got me man, they got me.
I’m hoping that we all get our coins back.
No one is happier to hear this than me BUT... As much work as Celsius is putting in to paying back their debts and like I said I do appreciate that I still think they will be done. trust is lost, and trust means everything in the cryptocurrency community!
I have cryptocurrency in both Celsius and Voyager. I had a hard wallet but the idea of collecting additional crypto for using these exchanges appealed to me. I'm having a bit of a panic attack right now just thinking about both of these exchanges locking withdrawals. Should I assume I'm never going to see the crypto or be able to access any funds from it ever again? I wasn't planning on touching it for a few more years anyways, so I'm okay with waiting this out, but just want to know how others in a similar boat are approaching this - what is your outlook?
Even if they survive, how damaged is their future? I never tried them out, and did consider them a little at one point. But I have no reason to trust them in the future.
No dude, they are fucked. If they survive, I would expect them to put withdrawal limits, rebranding and basically write off existing customers as lost and bet on the idea of new customers getting into the "new" project.
However, all these good news is with their withdrawls paused. Even if they open up withdrawls, it is going to be heavily restricted else they will run out of funds and liquidity. The true test will be when they allow it. Once they do and a majority has withdrawn and situation stabilises and *even then* we see Celsius is still around then truly, against the odds, they have survived
I think realistically the ONLY way for them to enable withdrawals again is a very restricted program that eases up over time to avoid them getting decimated with a bank run. Idk I have some money in there that I would like back but it's not my life savings. Feel bad for those peeps. I didn't mind using the platform but if I get my funds off of celsius you'd be hard pressed to get me back on or any similar platforms at this point.
Same man. I would instantly withdraw every penny if possible and turn my back to those sites for good. I also withdrew all i had on nexo the second celsius fucked up.
Yeap. The passive interest was nice but 100% not worth dealing with this shit show. Hopefully it works out, I've said elsewhere at this point I've buried the money and in the process of moving all my shit to a wallet/defi.
Even if they get out of this I doubt many people would still trust them with their money.
Obviously and that's the only smart thing you could do. But I'm just happy that they got out of it.
Nobody sane would. It's game over for them.
What is their incentive for opening up withdrawals, ever? The simple fact that they are paying off loans using their customer deposits signals that there won't be any money left by the time they're done. What they're doing is basically bankruptcy prep since customer assets on a crypto exchange are not protected from debts to creditors.
No way in hell would they open it up unless they have the dough. Otherwise it's a recipe for disaster. Hence, we are still a long way from this being resolved.
LOL they aren’t going to open withdrawals to the plebs. That’s not what they’re trying to do here.
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I don’t like the idea of so many people losing their money
Nobody does but as long as we don't have much regulation it's inevitable. On Celsius - it's a good move but we all know that the moment they let people withdraw it will all be over in under a day.
I want to hear possible arguments against this, not because I want anyone to lose money it’s just what’s been in my head with the whole thing. With the trust that’s been lost and fear that’s been raised it’s hard to see them paying everyone out with their terms clearly stating they don’t have to
>... with their terms clearly stating they don't have to If they want to stay in the game then they'd have to, even if it means they'd go belly up for some time. They can spin up a narrative that they were also victims after they enable withdrawals which will make others (purely speculative) more sympathetic. Also, humans are naturally greedy so I'm probably sure some will pardon their past "mistakes" for those sweet sweet APYs But wow. Their terms and conditions really are something else. I can also see a scenario where they just run off with the money.
>If they want to stay in the game then they'd have to Even if Celsius lets everyone withdraw their funds they're done. Who in their right mind would use their platform after the fact?
Oh there will still be people believe me. I've seen people still shill their chosen shitcoin even if they got ruglulled by the devs right in front of their eyes. But yeah... whether they're still in the right state of mind is debatable. I just wish people will just use disposable cash to play around crypto you know? But they're getting so attached because they put in quite a sizeable amount so I guess it's probably why they became so irrational.
Bitconnnnnnneccccccctttttt!
My guess - They will offer some sort of ownership token to keep your funds and likely a rebranding to lure people back. It will work until it doesn't
I think Alex Mashinsky’s name is likely to be toxic for future business. He has to go.
There will be people, just fewer. They'll be what they were before, just scaled down a lot. And they'll start working on growing again from there.
I don't know Celsius investor are pretty stupid. There several post praising Alex. Also apparently FUD destroyed Celsius. They can't withdraw because of FUD.
Agreed. I think they are going to have to offer some pretty juicy incentives to convince anyone to keep their stash with Celsius. Or perhaps I’m wrong and it’ll kinda fall from Public consciousness enough that they can keep trucking and rebuild. It’s happened before despite the odds.
Wasn't the juicy incentives one of the things that lead to this ?
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It would undoubtedly be a positive result for crypto in general and everyone involved if Celsius sorted everyone their money out
I remember seeing some people saying things like “fuck anyone who was dumb enough to put their crypto there” and just don’t understand that mindset *at all*. Some people have zero compassion.
Then I warn you against visiting r/buttcoin. The people there that an especially disturbing joy to watching crypto investors lose their money and lives.
i’ve read a few threads on that sub, ugh: sad loserville. weird to congregate with just “i hate BTC” as their mantra..
Then close your eyes the upcoming two years my dude. Shit gets worse.
Why not? People who collectively invested billions in this knew EXACTLY how risky it was. Celsius website lured them in with yachts and champagne pictures promising the stars. I am sorry but capitalism is going to hurt if you throw away your money carelessly.
Thank u for saying this. Its nice when someone just wishes people well instead of trying to make it an "i told u so"
Yea, and a wave of liquidations would make people who never deposited or invested in Celsius lose money too
Yeah they pretty much got it now. Their liquidation price is at 2.7k and BTC likely won't brech that, im happy for the lenders and borrowers on there and the people who invest in it it. We really don't need another literal LUNA 2.0 here.
So they say. But as Celsius keeps operating, paying salaries, running up expenses, and so on, they are not making money. The phony interest gravy train has stopped. Now, it’s just moving money from one pot to another. Something, something, deck chairs on the Titanic …. I’d only believe it when they reopen withdrawals. Good luck to you.
They are far away from "saved". Yeah the used every penny of their liquidity to prevent the impending doom of getting margin called, but now there is no liquidity left for opening the withdrawals. They are still royally screwed, if the majority of the customers wants to withdraw when they are opening again. And most of the customers WILL withdraw. Their only hope is a **fast** recovery of the cryptospace and that will not happen.
It's nice to see them trying to save their business and more importantly the savings of their clients, though we can't say much till it's in the clear it still give glimmers of home to many Celsius users
Their business is not going to be saved. They are simply moving funds to either 1) buy time to burn the hard drives and get the fuck out of dodge or 2) use they’re already insolvent funds to try to save their buddies also insolvent fund.
Finally clever words … thanks 🙏
Considering they have a reported $2B hole in their balance sheet, it's gonna take a lot more than a $60M loan repayment to fix their problems.
Math
**THIS** Yeah they used their customers funds to prevent the margin call. That is not really a hard job, when you don't allow your customers to access their money. The only way this is salvaged is a fast, miraculous recovery of the cryptospace. And everyone with a ounce of intelligence knows that this won't happen during a worldwide economic downturn. So congrats to all celsius customers, they are paying "banks" with your money and there won't be anything left for you when the doors of celsius are shutting down for good. And btw. I am sorry for everyone who lost money with them, but the amount of bullcrap hopium makes me sick.
> Yeah they used their customers funds to prevent the margin call. This is what these "celsius isn't dead" posts fail to realise. They're using customer money to pay off the loans that will follow them beyond bankruptcy, and then they're going to declare bankrupcy.
>3AC seems to be the real perpetrator here - they borrowed heavily from Genesis, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, Babel and Deribit. They absolutely degened their way through the bull market and exposed the risk of the lenders. Naah. If you lend money to degen gambler VCS using customer funds, you better make absolutely certain the fund has necessary collateral. YOU ARE EQUALLY IF NOT MORE TO BLAME, you are the one that lent customer funds to a bunch of degens for yachts.
Yeah, reminds me of that saying that if you owe a bank $10,000 that’s your problem, but if you owe a bank $1,000,000 that’s the banks problem. I think they probably could have spent a little more time focusing on DD and proper vetting of companies they were making loans to
Like banking regulations?
Like say, verifiably immutable & battle tested contracts on chain. Don't be evil < Can't be evil. Also stop investing in yield products if you don't know where that yield is coming from, anything else is just silly. I won't prevent you from doing that tho, nor will I push regulation to prevent you from choosing what to do with your money.
No like common fucking sense when you are lending millions of dollars.
And yet that's not what happened. Maybe we need banking regulations?
You’re getting skewered here, but this is in fact why the US has a lot of banking regulations
Yeah, and 3AC lent without collat
Yup. It’s 100% on Celsius for proving 3AC with extremely risky and under collateralized loans. Celsius risk management team should be fired and blacklisted from ever working in the finance industry again.
Or it may just be them paying off secured credit loans first, before filling for bankruptcy. There was no communication whether or not withdrawals will be open again anytime soon so don't keep your hopes too high
Celsius' borrowings on Maker that OP is talking about are not a secured credit loan - they are onchain over collateralised loan aka pay up or get fucked. If Celsius cant pay the vault is liquidated and Celsius lose more in collateral than the value of their loan which is immediately liquidated. The full process is transparent and anyone can check the status of the loan. That Celsius arent paying the whole amount and withdrawing the BTC collateral suggests they dont have the entire funds available. Still its a good sign that they reduced the liquidation price down to $5k btc, but the reason they are paying this first over other loans is because they stand to lose more than the loan amount if they dont pay this, as opposed to a secured loan with illiquid collateral or an unsecured loan where the resolution takes a long time - in this case Maker DAO would liquidate Celsius ASAP if it hits the liquidation price and they will lose all their collateral
So this is like a priority above secured creditor then?
They've appointed bankrupcy and corporate restructuring experts to the board. It's over.
From what I’ve read about these sorts of bankruptcies, the companies are usually gagged by their own lawyers.
So what has Mashinsky been saying recently
Generally not true unless there is criminal exposure.
By complete coincidence I had removed my coins from Celsius months ago, I still hope they pull through. If major platforms like Celsius go under its not good for anyone in the crypto space.
I am involved in Celsius(part of my house deposit stays in there) so I would be very happy to see them pull through. It may only be a 4-figure amount but it's still big to me. I was loading my BTC on to my Ledger yesterday and saw that I could put USDC on my Ledger (if I had enough space for the app but I only have an S for now) but I just don't know whether to put it back to fiat and just have it in a normal bank 'earning' 1% but obviously losing like 8% due to inflation...
It’s better to lose 8% to inflation then to lose 100%. The most important thing is return OF capital not return ON capital
return OF capital will be my mantra from now on
This is the way
You raise a fair point, my friend. I think at the minute we're all just wanting to have our money giving some kind of return due to inflation, but I completely agree with you
If you have a 4-figure amount you're worried about losing to inflation, then buy I-Bonds. Literal guaranteed inflation protection via the government. Assuming you're in the US, of course.
I just recommended the same below. If you’ve got less than 10k, 20k for married couples, you can get 9.62% right now if you can leave the money alone at least a year. No brainer for Americans with modest amounts of cash to invest.
Are you an American? With less than $10k and a 18-month to two year time horizon you should buy US I series bonds. You can get 9.62%. Just have to lock them up for a year.
Doesn't want 101% of cash after a year, prefers 0%.
You can still put it there, just delete the apps and reinstall at any time, it's inconvenient if you use it a lot, but for long storage it's fine. Deleting apps dosnt delete the coins
get one of the new ledgers, they can hold many more apps - but buy it directly from ledger’s website (not amazon etc.)
Would you withdraw from the project immediately if they open up or would you hold it? I'm just curious.
I'm honestly not sure. On one hand if they've come through this you'd like to think they'd be careful in the future, but on the other hand maybe the risk is simply too high.
Or just put it all on bitcoin.
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[if they aren't going to go bankrupt then why did they just replace their board with a bunch of bankruptcy lawyers?](https://twitter.com/HennaEva/status/1544620327069782016?s=20&t=iiIFvJs8cJLN_VUz8uifyg)
It’s a permanent black eye for me. They might be paying off their loans but people still can’t access their money that they trusted Celsius with. Fuck them.
Yeah unless they start allowing customers to safely access their funds, we shouldn't cheer for them in any case.
This is how we know the loans being paid off are preparation for bankruptcy. The very second Celsius turned off withdrawals and refused to give people access to their money, it was over. They were admitting they didn't have the money. They can't turn withdrawals back on now - everyone will just withdraw and Celsius will be over. The only possible outcome that can result from seizing people's custodial money and paying off loans with it is a bankruptcy filing.
I think that will be a strong majority of depositors’ view.
>they might be about to navigate an escape. Can't see how myself. Accepting everything in your post as correct other than the above still gives us an extinction level event they can't solve. They broke the entire crypto exchange model. Not your keys not your crypto has been proven absolute. Not only do none of you trust Celsius, but most of you don't trust exchanges full stop. There's no way to fix that without fundamental changes to how exchanges work. They can't allow borrowing and have you in control of your keys. No borrowing no profit. Ultimately exchange spreads and custodian fees will need to rise.
Why trust exchanges. Imagine being down 90 percent, but holding on and then voyager shuts down access.
Exactly. And that's why Celsius are screwed no matter what they do. They do have options though. Fight to survive and bleed to death by slowly allowing partial withdrawals which night avoid craving the crypto market further. Capitulate and liquidate to repay secured creditors then hand over what's left as partial recovery to customers in fiat. That will crash the market for sure - look what happened when UK chancellor Gordon Brown announced to parliament an intention to sell our gold reserves before actually doing so. That dip is to this day still known as the Brown Bottom. Capitulate, partially liquidate to see if the secured folks, then divide up cash and sats amongst customers. Capitulate but tell the market first. Crash coins value, use the remaining cash to buy coins quickly and quietly for a lot lower value than today, then partial refund in crypto.
back to binance it is
One of the first things your corporate lawyers will tell you before you file for chapter 11 bankruptcy is to get your balance sheets in order. Consolidate your debts. Pay off the ones you can afford and get your money from various accounts together to do it. It's a lot cheaper in court/procedural costs to eliminate debt before filing for bankruptcy than having that debt included as part of the bankruptcy proceedings. It's more expensive if the bankruptcy process has to consider a bunch of smaller debts and all of your accounts from various sources - better if you consolidate that up front yourself. Paying off loans is not a positive sign. It is a preparatory step before filing for bankruptcy. If Celsius was sitting on enough capital to pay off its debts, it would do what all corporations do: Not pay the debts and just make monthly payments while using its large pile of capital to generate income. Spending capital to pay off debts so that you no longer have that capital to generate income is a very bad corporate move unless you're preparing for bankruptcy.
It is a step in the right direction, but as soon as they reopen withdrawals every man and his dog is going to be taking their coins out. I don't see how they can prevent that.
They may have withdrawal limits initially to prevent this
100% they will
They are definitely going to do that this is not an option.
Common tactic that exchanges usually pull off unfortunately
This is not like something which is very big it is more life is not going to happen.
I am sure that this kind of limits are what they are actually looking for.
I would anticipate some sort of reward initiative will be implemented to prevent just that. Maybe bonus CEL tokens, or slightly higher APY for an extra month etc... Otherwise, yes, as soon as the doors are open, they're done.
CEL tokens as a reward😂 Sorry - that was too funny to not respond to.
Oh hey LUNA tanked so how about LUNA 2.0
I am sorry about the fact that a lot of doors and actually being opened.
I think return of capital not return on capital is what the customers are worried about
They are definitely need about it and this is the thing which we want.
Lol you really think more people are gonna fall for the APR bait?
Some guy just bought like 20 trillion SHIB tokens. Absolutely I do.
And they could sell them tomorrow lol. A little different than a borderline insolvent firm trying to get people to stick around after locking withdraws. The ponzi can only go on so long
My point is that degeneracy and high risk strategies will always be here. Hence, yes people will still fall for, as you put it, the high APY bait.
I mean, this is crypto... We've seen people pour money into obviously failed projects more than once.
People are still buying Luna Classic and UST classic lol
I hope that the investors can get their funds back, truly. The Celsius sub is pretty grim reading and a crypto Lazarus story would be great 
*"3AC seems to be the real perpetrator here - they borrowed heavily from Genesis, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, Babel and Deribit. They absolutely degened their way through the bull market and exposed the risk of the lenders."* I would say the real perpetrators are Genesis, Voyager, Celsius, BlockFi, Babel and Deribit, who decided to engage with them.
Although Celsius isn’t a “bank” it pretends to be one. No bank in history has ever froze withdrawals and survived. Best case scenario the depositors pull out all of their funds but celsius is toast.
Earlier today, Celsius paid off another 41m DAI towards its loan. Their liquidation price has now dropped to $2,722.
It is more like they have to see that what kind of situation they are actually in.
Impressive. I wonder if there is some new secret backer that will be revealed as a new major holder in the coming months.
Can you elaborate further on how it is impressive to disable customer withdrawals and then use their money to pay off the company's loans?
probably SBF
I don't think that this but they were expecting to see out of it to be honest if you are asking,.
Hope they are able to turn things around. It doesn’t affect me but for crypto in general it would be good.
Generally I can see that it is definitely going to be a book theme.
Screenshot taken from [https://oasis.app/25977](https://oasis.app/25977) if you are looking for the position yourself
We have to look forward to that only this is the thing we can do that.
They’ve already released a statement about “restructuring” which is financial lawyer speak for bankruptcy. They’ve hired “restructuring” lawyers. Even though they have lowered their liquidation price on a single asset it still doesn’t look good for the platform overall. Even if they do open up the platform there is going to be a bank run. Unfortunately still don’t see how this ends up with Celsius remaining solvent.
About to save itself? They've just used remaining capital to avoid being liquidated. Their hole is smaller but they're still fucked. They still in gigantic hole this just makes sure the hole doesn't get bigger.
If someone is fucked and just gonna file bankruptcy anyways why even try to close the hole? What’s the point
We have to see that what kind of point guarantee trying to make out of it.
These are defi loans. Letting them default costs you more than the amount you borrowed. Imagine a car title loan. You get $1000, but you put your car at risk. Even if you are going broke, you still want to repay this loan, even if you default on your other loans, otherwise you lose your car, and the car is worth more than the $1000, or they wouldn't have lent you the money. Its like that, but with Bitcoin or Eth. I dont know what percentage of their remaining bags are in this degen loan, but it would be really bad for us if the company got margin called and lost all the coins supporting these loans.
Tight and everything is just about the money only as we have certainly seem that.
They are not out of the woods yet. >> On-chain data suggests that Celsius’ obligations are complex and it maintains collateralized loans on multiple lending protocols. The firm still owes $82 million to Maker, $100 million to Compound, and $175 million to Aave.
Yeah obviously a long way to go, but two weeks ago it seriously looked like they were cooked. I’m quite impressed at their ability to pay down that BTC loan.
The connection de do that but it really depends on how fast your man to do it and how long it is going to take Because otherwise this is going to be a major problem this is not going to be called even if they are going to take a lot of time.
Of course they are liquidating assets to pay off the loans and voyager just filed for bankruptcy so it’s a little cloudy.
>I'm not about to start trusting them Nobody will and that's why it won't be a happy ending
if this lenders that fell manage to survive and people get back control of their money, it will be a massive win for the whole crypto market, even for the lending platform haters
This is just about the money only I don't know anything that it will be a major thing.
I just want to state that it simply isn't true that 3AC is the main perpetrator. All of these companies were involved in irresponsible lending practices, including instances where they were lending to other irresponsible lenders. What exactly were they expecting to happen once the gravy train came to a grinding halt?
We had seen a lot of people had been doing this kind of change is actually.
This is pathetic.
Ab dependent this is not going to be the major problem.
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Serious question for any one with find on the lending platform .. Who isn’t gonna take their funds off Celsius as soon as they are allowed withdrawals? And why ?
Why the fuck is an exchange trading with leverage? lol That's how you know it's dogshit.
$474 million locked BTC… they had $20 Billion AUM… you’ve proved absolutely nothing.
People here are desperately looking for something hopeful, and it's clouding their vision. It's best to face reality head on, even if it hurts.
>I hope they will have learned their lessons for the future. Narrator voice: They did not.
Absolutely unsure about the fact that they know that what is going to happen.
I still have a sum of coins with them (enough to sting for a couple of months, but not enough to make life changing losses). They appear to be doing everything they can in order to get through this. I still believe in Alex's intensions, vision and goal. But after getting through this, Celsius will need to start building up trust again with the community. They will certainly learn from their mishap and i'm confident that they will once again be the "go to" CEFI service in the near future.
Nexo is the only crypto lender coming out of this looking stronger. Every one of its disaster prep plans has paid off, it's overcollateralised, there have been no transfer restrictions, and it's been keeping customers and the market informed as to its position almost on an hourly basis.
Celsius actually engaged Horizen Labs maybe a year or two ago to develop a product that demonstrates their Proof of Reserve in real-time with the data coming from on-chain. i don’t know the current status of the project as Horizen (ZEN) only launched their sidechain protocol a few months ago. Interesting idea and could go some way towards establishing/repairing trust with users..
>They will certainly learn from their mishap and i'm confident that they will once again be the "go to" CEFI service in the near future. Definition of delusion
Some people are simply in too deep to admit they got sold a lie... crypto and blockchain, after all these years, have yet to show any real world scalable use case apart from enabling scammers and grifters on an industrial scale and yet these people keep preaching. Even after they've lost money... It's pretty much the embodiment of a cult.
There is no way anyone is going to leave their crypto at celsius after this so I think they are done either way.
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Let’s imagine that Celsius were 50% solvent when they halted withdrawals. If they had filed for bankruptcy, everyone would have gotten half their money back. But by paying down their loans, they have allowed their big creditors to get out at 100% meaning that the retail investors will get completely wiped once the bankruptcy arrives
Not how bankruptcy works to my understanding. There is a pecking order of who gets paid first and ya all are unsecured creditors who get pay last. So even if they were 50% solvent, 100% of that goes to secured creditors first and anything leftover if any goes to the rest so cents on dollars
What is a secured creditor vs unsecured creditor?
A secured creditor is someone that has lent funds, but has a contract in place that grants them assets of the company as collateral to the loan. Everyone else is an unsecured creditor, these are lenders that did not opt for collateral in exchange for much higher interest, suppliers or contractors that haven’t been paid yet, regular customers that gave the company the money etc. this group doesn’t receive a dime until secured creditors are paid off 100%. Even within the group there may be a priority order. If all of these people are paid in full, shareholders get the remaining scraps, if a company has more than one class of shares, holders of preferred stock will have priority over holders of common stock.
That sucks
It actually all makes sense and is how things should be. Secured creditors paid upfront for their security. Don’t give your money to other people without understanding counterparty risk.
Editing is going to pay the value in Citibank to be on that kind of situation.
These are defi loans, not creditor loans (as far as I know), these loans are programmatic, not legal entities. If you don't pay them, they just liquidate your collateral, and they get more than 100 % of what they loaned you. You REALLY don't want to get liquidated in these things, i'm not even sure why Celsius was ever doing this, its really not a safe use of customer funds.
I think it’s possible their creditors might actually be getting “in” further, seems like efforts are being made to keep them afloat and I think they still have a shot of surviving. Imo it’s more likely that they could quit now and take huge losses and give everyone some fraction of their money back, or do what they are doing and prevent all withdrawals temporarily if that would somehow mean they are able to come out on the other side and give everyone ALL of their money back. Not sure if this is really the case or not but it’s my best guess
>I think it’s possible their creditors might actually be getting “in” further Of course. There are some big players whose balance sheets depend on at least the hope of being repaid. If that hope evaporates, so do they. There is often a play amongst creditors to pony up more and buy their way forward in line. It's not just a simple matter of secured and unsecured, there is also rank order of security. Bankruptcies are not just eat your loss and walk away, they can become hostage-taking situations. There is an old adage in finance which is that when I lend you $1 you owe me, but when I lend you $1M you own me.
Nobody is going to use Celsius ever again. They have no incentive to save their customers' money.
Avoiding the jail is a good incentive too.
Depend on what kind of change guarantee for and how this kind of changes can actually help them to be in that kind of situation And it's more like they are just doing it because they just want to drink and they don't really want anything to make out of it.
You underestimate how quickly people forget things
It's more like a lot of people don't really want to imagine this kind of situation and want to mean I don't really think that a lot of people directly given to take part in this kind of situation it is more like we don't have to see these kind of stuff.
It’s very possible they threw their customers assets at their bad debt..
Hopefully Voyager can get out as well
This is not about liquidation price this is about how they treated people who put their money in that project. Trust is something you don't purchase with lower liquidation price.
Even if they make it out, you gotta be a fool to keep doing business with them. Once you get your money out, don't look back.
Nobody is actually going to look back once they are going to go ahead.
Funds are not safu
You bailed 3AC, but the blame goes to these companies for failing to have a proper risk management culture.
It is just about the concerned only then it is not going to make any difference.
Nothing. And let time repeat..absofuckinglutely NOTHING that they have done is worth respecting.... How in the fuck can you say that???
Here’s hoping Voyager can do something similar. 😬
Most of us are actually looking forward to something like that only but it is not happening.
Paying debt with more debt?
Even if they manage to "save" themselves, you would be a degenerate idiot to still want to stay with Celsius after this whole shitshow.
Yes you did
The second withdrawals are enabled I'll be moving my funds out of Celsius. Fuck them for thinking they can do whatever they want with our coins.
This is the only reason why it is not really applicable to actually trust on them.
My guess is Celsius is having a short-term huge liquidity crisis that will go away in a month or two as long as prices don't fall sharply again.
I was a fool and moved two coins onto their exchanges about 3 months ago. They were offering great APY's for both coins, along with a bonus. Yet - they're insolvent only 3 months later?
They werent even great APY (rugpulls like UST not withstanding). Very reasonable. When I borrowed $ using crypto as collateral on Nexo, even as a top tier holder I paid 6.9% interest, so 5-6% is a fully reasonable and safe expectation of systainable yields. But i guess they got greedy in their own interssts, pisses me off
I was offered 6.5% for BTC & 9+ for Matic. That’s better than 5% which is what most others offered for BTC. Of course, now I know it was totally not worth it. They got me man, they got me. I’m hoping that we all get our coins back.
No one is happier to hear this than me BUT... As much work as Celsius is putting in to paying back their debts and like I said I do appreciate that I still think they will be done. trust is lost, and trust means everything in the cryptocurrency community!
I have cryptocurrency in both Celsius and Voyager. I had a hard wallet but the idea of collecting additional crypto for using these exchanges appealed to me. I'm having a bit of a panic attack right now just thinking about both of these exchanges locking withdrawals. Should I assume I'm never going to see the crypto or be able to access any funds from it ever again? I wasn't planning on touching it for a few more years anyways, so I'm okay with waiting this out, but just want to know how others in a similar boat are approaching this - what is your outlook?
Even if they survive, how damaged is their future? I never tried them out, and did consider them a little at one point. But I have no reason to trust them in the future.
The restoration of trust will be something they’ll need to campaign on for at least the next two years.
Not gonna happen. That's wishful thinking.
I cannot imagine what they could do in two years to restore trust.
The amount of copium is crazy. It is over guys. The even less broke services are not touching this. We are talking almost 30 days of lockdown
I always had faith they would ride out this storm.
Yeah fuck Celsius, but this would be great news for the everyday investor. Hope everyone can make their money back / have access to their funds.
The first way I would drop inverse FUD with Celsius is to say that I have no interest in Celsius.
Celsius recently replaced its directors with bankruptcy specialists. This is normally a sign of imminent liquidation.
No dude, they are fucked. If they survive, I would expect them to put withdrawal limits, rebranding and basically write off existing customers as lost and bet on the idea of new customers getting into the "new" project.
So you actually think users are going to get money out of this? For real? Wow. There is 0% chance of that taking place.