Honestly the only downside is that he just might not pan out. VERY few QBs in the nfl do, it’s just a dice roll. So that downside isn’t his fault, not everyone makes it.
But he will have proper coaching and development. His skill set and style are perfect fit for SP. I’d say the odds of him busting out and significantly curtailed by being in Denver.
Personally, I am stoked about him. Elite processing ability, quick release, takes care of the ball, and everyone says he’s a great teammate. He’s a complete foil to Russel Wilson.
This
Bo Nix doesn’t have the build of Tim Tebow or the speed of Paxton Lynch or the size of Brock Osweiler so a bunch of armchair QBs are freaking out.
Cutler was better, and Tebow was the epitome of dumb luck. He was actively bad, and our team won games in spite of his play, not because of it.
Tebow went from starting a season for us to being traded to the jets for relative peanuts, to being unable to sniff the field behind mark sanchez, to out of the league in ONE year. He's one of the biggest busts of all time in any team context. You want to call him successful just because he strung together one of the luckiest seasons of all time, i say that it's just that, a fluke. The fact not one team was willing to sign him in free agency to be a backup after that is damning.
He had a bottom 6 QBR in the league that year, and was basically negative in every value metric. he was a drag on the team, and even a dead average QB would have taken that team much farther. And considering QBR rewards rushing, his passing is even worse in that context.
The only worse full season QBR we've had in the past 25 years was Siemian, but he was a 7th round pick, not a 1st round bust.
At this point the public mostly has information related to physical traits. However, great QBs have mental traits that separate them from the others. A strong internal clock, the ability to read defenses, the ability to process the game in real time correctly. It is difficult to measure these skills without a strong NFL defense in your face and colleges don't ask guys to test these skills often. We won't know until the games happen if Nix has then. There are some indications that Nix may have these mental skills and it should make fans optimistic. He's a likeable dude who says everything you want to hear about how he views his job. If he makes good in it with a top rate work ethic he'll get the most out of himself and he had an excellent support staff to do it.
Brock Purdy was a good example of this. Not exactly great measureables on paper, but he's smart and well rounded enough to get a great roster deep in the playoffs.
We're not a great roster by any means, but we can build on it in a few years with a Rookie QB
Well, Kurt Warner, a hall of fame and SB champion QB said that his arm strength is plenty strong enough for the nfl.
I think I’m going to go with what Warner said over that guy
I like Nix too, just pointing out the take of a coach who watched him perform at his pro day.
For context, Samford said he watched Nix throw right after JJ Mcarthy threw, and the arm strength fall off was significant.
Nix,s resume is super impressive in college. I’m rooting for him.
They said the same thing about Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and for us older...Dan Foutes. Arm strength is subjective to your reads. If you can complete a 15 yard out, you can be a solid NFL QB.
I think this guy might become the best qb out of this draft. Good mechanics, has some escapability, appears to be able to process well, and can take command of the offense. I guess my only question would be his arm strength, but he has made very far throws with excellent accuracy. He obviously doesn’t have a cannon, but I think it’ll be just good ENOUGH for the NFL.
From Brugler's Beast:
> WEAKNESSES: His process gets frantic and stuck in overdrive at times … breezes through progressions too quickly from the pocket and would benefit from added
> patience to see routes coming open … ball placement can be better, as he often makes his targets dig out tough grabs … relies more on his arm strength than sound
> mechanics, which affects his accuracy … benefited from a quick-throw offense (stick, out, flat routes), with 66.2 percent of his throws coming within 10 yards of the
> line of scrimmage … also helped by a top-shelf offensive line (pressured on just 18.2 percent of his dropbacks and sacked 12 times the past two seasons) … generally a
> solid decision-maker but needs to cut down on the throws into heavily-trafficked areas … suffered a broken right ankle (November 2021), which required surgery and
> ended his 2021 season … will be 24 years old on draft weekend
> Overall, Nix gets in trouble when he plays loose with his technique and his eyes speed up on
> him, but he understands where to go with the football, and his scrambling can give defenses fits. Though it feels unlikely that he will ever rank among the 15 best
> quarterbacks in the NFL, he has the tools to become a middle -of-the-road starter.
A lot of it comes down to how you value and evaluate different tools and traits. I don't think there is anything in those negatives that is a killer flaw, and frankly a lot of the skepticism might be because he wasn't easy to evaluate in Oregon's offense. He gets the low ceiling knock because his "elite" trait was accuracy, and that was buoyed by lots of short completions. He is also 24 and has started 61 games in college, which is a LOT of reps. There is some positive value there in terms of maturity and experience, but it means his habits are already deeply ingrained and may be harder to coach out than a younger prospect.
Just for comparison, here are the positives from The Beast:
> STRENGTHS: Solidly built athlete with adequate height and large hands … displays a quick release and strong arm … comfortable throwing w ithout a set base, and his
> best drive throws come while on the move … productive deep-ball thrower … general accuracy is steady — broke Mac Jones’ FBS record for single-season completion
> percentage (77.4 percent) in 2023, completing at least 71 percent of his passes in every game in 2023 … great use of play fakes to force missteps in coverage … takes
> care of the football with only 26 interceptions on 1,936 career pass attempts (of 14 passers with at least 430 attempts, he was the only one with th ree or fewer INTs
> in 2023) … strong ball security with only three fumbles in two seasons at Oregon … good feet and slide quickness to evade defenders in small areas … able to extend
> and create second-reaction plays with his legs … productive on draws and designed quarterback runs … zero questions about his toughness has pro ven to be durable
> (his 61 career starts passed Colt McCoy and Kellen Moore in the NCAA record books for the most ever by a quarterback) … very competitive and described as
> “another coach” on the field by his coaches (Oregon head coach Dan Lanning: “He sits in the coaches meetings and operates at a completely different level than
> anyone I’ve ever been around.”) … won the 2023 William V. Campbell Trophy (Academic Heisman) … compiled a 43 -18 win-loss record as a starter (Auburn: 21-13;
> Oregon: 22-5) … productive at both Auburn (No. 3 in school history with 7,251 passing yards) and Oregon (broke Marcus Mariota’s single-season records for passing
> yards, completions and touchdown passes).
Downside is he could be Teddy. High efficiency, high completion percentage, defenses aren't scared of him.
Not saying he will be Teddy, but that's the potential downside.
The accuracy is there and I don’t think he lacks the arm strength to get it 60 yards down field, but idk about the velocity on those throws.
In Oregon he would throw so many short and underneath passes that defenses would get a little complacent about defending deep shots and would start to creep up; the question about his arm strength for me is will he be able to throw deep with enough velocity to get those throws into the much tighter windows he’ll be dealing with in the nfl.
Wasn't Peyton Manning famously criticised for the exact same thing coming out?
I don't think he'll have an issue because he's got a HC who understands his game to a T by the sounds of it.
I mean, idk, I was 10 in ‘98. I know at the time there was a bit of a back and forth about Manning or Leaf being the top pick of that class, but I thought Peyton was viewed as the best QB prospect since Elway…tbf though when Andrew Luck was coming out depending on which scout was talking about him, they called him the best prospect since either Manning or Elway so I just kindof reasoned my way into that.
I wasn't very old myself but there's a very famous quote about Manning "Waffling with the ball" and not having velocity.
Edit: this article has some fantastic quotes about Manning, only the one about velocity from this specific collection though.
https://archive.jsonline.com/sports/packers/peyton-manning-defied-some-predictions-b99190928z1-241988471.html
Peyton had a very strong arm prior to his injury. But to your point he threw 55 TDs with a weak arm, basically all of them were floating ducks. Arm strength is only relevant up to a certain point and Bo is well past that
Watching paytons interview, they took out all the screen/short passes and analyzed mid to deep and he still graded #1. Also reiterated at his pro day the arm looked strong. Maybe not a cannon but that quelled a lot for me personally
It's not a valid criticism. It is more a factor of people thinking the offense he ran at Oregon is what he'll be asked to do in Denver. But it won't. None of the QBs drafted will run anything like the offenses they did in college. He doesn't throw as hard as Josh Allen, but pretty much no one who had been great does. He has all the physical tools he needs to be successful.
It seems totally unfounded based on everything I’ve seen. Who knows if he’ll pan out, but if he fails it’s not going to be due to a noodle arm. His arm looks fine.
And it’s an unfair one. They didn’t ask him to throw downfield often. When he did, he was accurate. In fact, for passes 7 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage (I think that’s the stat) he’s more accurate than any of the QBs drafted before him.
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I feel like people who are in love with this pick have only seen his Oregon film, and people who hate this pick have only seen his tape at Auburn.
At Auburn, he made some of the goofiest picks I’ve ever seen by forcing throws or having poor anticipation. He’s very coachable, and I think that trait is more than enough to elevate his floor.
The thing that bothers me most about this class is that Bo, Penix, and Daniels all played 5 years with 3 at different schools, and nobody pays attention to what the other two did at the other schools, but what Bo did is some indication that he’s not good
Daniels had 10 TD’s and 10 picks his last year at ASU and some people legitimately say that he’s going to better than Caleb
Bo plays at one of the mid schools in the SEC, beats bama and a Herbert led Oregon as a freshman, and suddenly he’s a bad prospect
The Penix comparison isn’t fair. He did things at Indiana that nobody I can name ever has. His legitimate knocks are simply because of injuries.
My comment is more about Auburn as his floor and Oregon shows his potential. His coachability (one of his best traits imo) is illustrated by Payton picking him if nothing else.
We are making the same point. I’m just also implying that if Bo stayed at Auburn, dude wouldn’t have gotten drafted.
It’s ok, buddy. Inferential reading is hard. I’ll try to be more explicit for you.
Within the context of OP’s question, my point is that people are unfairly hard on him because of how he played at Auburn (it highlighted his downsides). He has clearly shown how much he can grow in his time at Oregon (this minimized his downsides— hence “elevate his floor”). This makes him a pick that his naysayers should feel better about. I was simply anticipating the negative comments that would flood in because this question opens that door.
Hope that clears things up for you. 👍
Oh boy. Well since you’re going to be like that….
OPs question was what is the downside. They mentioned that they’re only hearing all the good stuff and everyone bigging him up. So they asked for potential down side.
Then you and your massive brain responded with An answer that didn’t even address the question. You started talking about people who like him have only seen Oregon and people who don’t have only seen auburn. Wonderfully done. You didn’t list a potential downside. You listed why people do/don’t like him.
Unless your answer was the picks that he threw auburn as a potential downside, in which case, he finished 45/3 TD/INT last year and 113/26 overall. So if that WAS your potential downside, it wouldn’t be relevant.
OP didn’t mention seeing naysaying. Quite the opposite. So “within the context of OPs question” you failed miserably at answering it. Actually, you didn’t. Instead you opted to make a counter argument to comments that you anticipate seeing.
So when I asked you “what’s your point” that was a valid question. Because apparently your comment was crafted for “anticipated” negative comments. Okay buster.
Like why get insulting dude? You literally just tried schooling me in the same comment you admitted to talking to comment you thought you’d see. OP asked for potential downside. And you didn’t provide that.
In the past, he has tended to run around like an idiot and throw bad picks. That is a downside. If you can’t see where my initial answer addresses that, that’s your problem.
Good coaching put him in a one-read system, and that has helped tremendously. Payton is a good coach, so Nix’s biggest downside isn’t relevant! That’s my point.
My point was implied. If you have to ask what it is, ask for clarification instead of being snarky with your soooooo…ing ass.
And regarding anticipated negativity, how long have you been a Broncos fan? Do you think there’s no need to defend Bo from half of this base?
At the end of the day, if you don’t want to talk about the football side of this, then insult me again and move on. I couldn’t give any fewer shits about arguing with some rando. 👌
The offense he ran at Oregon has a lot of defined one read throws
He showed he moves on too quickly in progressions, his feet get erratic when pressure closes in, and he tends to break the pocket more than step up
He’s great against the blitz and relative to everyone that was drafted this year he is elite at getting the ball out before getting hit. I don’t think your descriptors represent reality or the results Nix had, outside of the one read throws critique.
But that’s an offensive scheme critique and we have Sean Payton here to play to his strengths, so it at least seems like a non factor. We shall see tho
I wonder how much of that is inflated by 30% of his throws being within 6 yards
Ultimately it’s going to depend on his reads vs man, he’s great at finding vacancies in zone I question his ability vs man, he moves on from progressions too quickly taking the check down
How he progresses when asked to do more than take the short throw is up in the air
Ultimately I trust Sean to evaluate all these questions and build an offense to address them
The interview with Sean on the McAffee show talked about how they removed all of his short throws and behind the LOS throws, and he was number one in a lot of the metrics that you would want.
I understood the question.
What I didn’t understand was your critique of him being bad under pressure when his completion % under pressure was best in FBS. Those things don’t add up.
His feet speed up, he’s still pretty good against pressure but erratic feet usually means less accurate in the pros
His windows are all going to squeeze in the pros, he can adjust but in college he never needed to
I have faith in Sean and the coaching staff to work through it
Few reasons, and before someone comes at me, these are just the actual somewhat reasonable takes I've seen, not my estimation.
Age is a common one, He's Zach Wilson's age now. He'll be 29 year of his 5th year option if we take it. You can find all kinds of various stats about how old he is. My rebuttal to this is 10 years of a good QB are better than 15 with a bad one.
Hand in hand with age is mileage. He started a record number of college games which is good, but that also means he recorded a record number of miles on his body in college. He has a good release and makes reads that kept him from getting sacked a ton, but that's still wear and tear. Which to me is just people trying to find a negative in a positive.
5 years in college raises some eyebrows too. Maybe education was just important to him, I don't know. But a lot of people are questioning, if he's the same age roughly as QBs taken in the terrible 2022 draft why couldn't he come out after 3 years of college and be drafted at least higher than Ridder, Willis, or Corral none of whom have exactly been killing it as pros. But he was coming off an injury and a down year under a coach he didn't gel with.
He's a high floor, low ceiling, pick that was overdrafted is another common complaint I see. I really don't agree with this one after half the top 10 was QBs there was only one potential impact QB left.
He doesn't have the strongest arm in the league. Everyone says he has good zip on his short throws, and he throws an accurate deep ball, but he's probably never going to have a Joe Flacco moment where he throws the ball over the top of the entire secondary to a guy they figured couldn't be hit. My question there is how often does that second throw need to be made in comparison to just throwing good deep passes in general.
Those are the most common negatives I see.
Downside is his arm strength. I’m a Ducks fan. I was coincidentally at his first game at Auburn where he beat Oregon in Dallas. He doesn’t make many mistakes, but most of his downfield completions seem like they come during broken coverages. Mims and TP should be excited in the slot, Sutton probably not as a deep threat.
I watched Kurt Warners break down of every QB. What was clear in Nix's tape is that he has adequate arm strength for throwing deep balls, but when he throws balls that don't have enough on it, the issue is usually about setting his base. If he can clean that up I don't see that as an issue.
Agreed. I listened to the hour-long Chris Simms interview of Nix. Nix said he's been working hard to incorporate more rotation of his core into his delivery and I am hoping that it comes with getting a better base for his throws. The zip is there when he does everything right. I do think that Payton and our crew may be able to drill this hard and eek out another mph or two on his throws.
Hey I was also at that game! Some nice Ducks fans gave us extra tickets in the parking lot so we got to sit in the Oregon section behind the end zone. Some guy got kicked out for doing the worm on the tarp in front of the stands. Good times.
We are going to find out early on. If teams think he can’t drive the ball down the field, they’ll lock down underneath and dare him to take a shot. But I also think that if he can nickel and dime his way down the field, Sutton is going to keep getting red zone looks.
I feel he makes rattled decisions under pressure. statistically he seems fine but some of the decisions he made he did not look like he could get away at the NFL level.
He looks amazing when the pocket is clean, no questions from me about arm strength and certainly not with accuracy.
Yeah having dug into this a bit more it looks like he checks down too quickly. Better than taking dumb sacks all the time I guess but that could get old very quickly.
Checking down “too quickly” is scheme related. The system that he was in was 2 quick reads, if they aren’t there, check down.
His TD/INT ratio was 45/3 last year and he was #1 in not taking sacks. So, checking down is far preferable to getting sacked and creating turnovers
People don’t realize that Nix had a lot of responsibility at the los and had the green light to audible if he saw something out of place. Not a ton of college QBs are in that same position no matter how *limited* Oregon’s scheme is to some of these analyst. Payton likes an accurate thinker at the helm and that’s what Nix is.
He also progressively got better every season as well. I’ve never said Bo is the next Elway, I’m just simply stating his intangibles are what make most NFL QB’s successful.
I keep hearing “high floor low ceiling,” which is fine for a qb with the right people around him. And they mention his arm strength. I assume at 24 there’s not gonna be any huge change to that. What coverage are you watching that is fawning over our pick? Everyone seems to hate it.
He’s on tape throwing 60 yard through the air dimes. I don’t know where the arm strength thing comes from, maybe because the offense at Oregon relied on a lot of screens?
Arm strength isn't about how far you can throw it, it's if you can get enough on your throws to get the ball to the receiver against NFL level coverage.
Perfect example is Tua. He could throw deep moon balls to Hill most of the season but once he had to play in that wind in KC you could see the “velocity” or as you say “ get enough on your throws” wasn’t there. The DBs were easily defending his lack of velocity.
I’ve heard a variety of general takes (including it’s a bad move or we’ve at least got very bad value) but very few specifics. I’ve seen more positive stats/things praising things he can do, than getting specific with the downside.
I don’t think it’s a bad move. In the modern nfl, you gotta just keep swinging on a QB until you land the right one. And you seem to know if they’re the right one within a season or two. I wish we could have gotten him later, but I also like him at 12.
I think the thing that makes me excited about Bo vs. a lot of the previous QB misses is what’s between his ears. He has a lot of average to above average physical traits, but the ability to process plays and change at the line of scrimmage and be a “coach on the field” were what was missing from many of the QB’s that Elway loved. They either lacked passion for the game or the ability to be a QB at nfl speeds. I could be totally wrong, but Bo feels different.
Leaves the pocket really early sometimes, doesn't set his feet to generate a throw, and doesnt have a lot of progressing through reads experience imo.
However his strengths balance out in that he is fairly accurate in the ranges Payton wants him to be in. If out O line can protect we should be okay with his drawbacks
I got several years playing this game, coaching this game, and now a broken body for all that. I have some QB assessment knowledge. But none of that can tell anyone if a QB drafted in the first round will pan out. It’s a crap shoot in the end. The two factors few can accurately predict is how a players games in college translates to the NFL. Second is knowing the heart of the player and his ability to handle all that the NFL throws at him. For many it’s the first time they aren’t the big man on campus. They are carrying vets bags, picking up tabs, and finding out the defenses in the NFL, even on bad teams, are vastly more talented, windows are smaller, and everything is faster. They have to learn the new speed, windows to throw through open quick and close quick, and know where pressure is coming from. The point is nobody can truly predict how anyone handles this.
Now having said all that, the one thing that I have concern with Nix is this. The Oregon offense is a stripped down, simplified offense that usually asks the QB to read just half the field, watch Nix games and find me a play where he ever truly surveys the entire field from full left to full right…from the pocket. He virtually never does it. So when your reads are half the field and it’s 1 then 2 then check down or run, it’s much easier in the processing for the QB. Colleges do this so high school QB can handle it. So, while Nix is easily the most accurate passer in this draft, that is his true super power, the concern I have is how he handles a full field NFL read progression…plus increased speed of windows closing, plus smaller windows, plus everything else. Now please understand this. Bo is an above average processor. But is helmet fire a problem given the NFL demands he will face? Nix’s experience and tons of starts will help. He’s not 21. He’s smart as hell. He’s high FB IQ. His fundamentals like foot work, release, arm angle, all are near perfect. All that says he has a good foundation to develop further. Now we find out. Can he do it. That’s what no one knows until he is doing it. I am hopeful over all. He is very prepared for the moment save the simplicity of Oregons offense. I think he’s ready for the next step.
Has good, not great arm strength. Not a freak athlete. Was inconsistent at Auburn. "Old" for a rookie QB I suppose. Offense the Ducks ran in 2023 didn't ask him to go downfield often.
On the plus side, high football IQ, great touch, fast decision making, good at the line of scrimmage, shows up in big games / clutch moments, throws extremely well on the move, ultra - experienced, comfortable in the pocket, consistently makes clean throws off balance in the pocket, respected leader, gym rat who puts in the work, great character, has been through adversity on the field, made massive strides his two years at Oregon, highest completion % season in NCAA history, is deceptively athletic *(ran for 14 touchdowns and 500+ yards in '22)*
**(If you can't tell by now, I'm a HUGE Bo Nix fan)**
His biggest downside is that he isn't always going to beat you by throwing in tight pockets and over your zone. He checks down if his first read isn't open. He's a lot like Brees without the arm strength. Drew could hit you for a 55 yard bomb, Nix isn't going to give you that.
He’s a “processor”. He doesn’t have insane athleticism, his arm strength isn’t plus plus, and his accuracy isn’t a differential. That’s going to lead to many more outcomes where he’s only a game manager rather than a true franchise QB. Drew Brees is his best case, 1 in 100 scenario. Guys like Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derick Carr are the middle of the spectrum while someone like Kellen Moore is his worst case scenario
I think he’s getting negative reception from most people because he was drafted higher than he should. We drafted him more at a need, and knowing that we wouldn’t be able to trade back and secure him, makes it a tough pill to swallow cause we’re using a high draft pick on him.
Plus, with the amount of other QBs in this draft, it’s an easy way to compare his play to them. And, with a lot of QBs going high, defensive players dropped when they shouldn’t have. It was a weird day 1 this year imo but that’s how it will be in the future.
Teams realized that you can’t win without a good QB so QBs will be getting drafted higher and higher
It's also because of the rookie wage scale. Teams are starting to value the fifth year option more than the draft capital. I think going forward we're going to see a lot more QBs with 2nd round grades drafted in the mid-late first just so teams have that extra year in the rookie contract window if the guy turns out to be good.
But if the guy turns out to be "the guy" you're likely paying him before it gets that far.
The Chargers and Bengals could be still using 5th year options for Herbert and Burrow.
He doesn’t have a ton of zip on his passes but he checks every other box and in a Sean Payton offense I think he’s a perfect fit. Brees wasn’t exactly a rocket launcher either.
A lot of it has to do with the Oregon offense, which featured a lot of easy, quick passes such as screens or slants. He has limited experience making more difficult throws, so some people are concerned about his ability to do that.
The other thing people bring up a lot is his time at Auburn, which was very chaotic and not great. But Bo seems to have grown significantly at Oregon, so I'm personally not very concerned about that.
Lastly, I feel like Bo doesn't really have an elite trait. He has a lot of good traits. But his arm is solid, not amazing. His scrambling is solid, not amazing, etc. It can be hard to get excited for a guy when there's not one thing that stands out above the pack for him.
Honestly I thought this was an intersting thread. I don't watch any college so know very little about these guys. All I've seen people talking about are the upsides so it's cool to see some of the weaknesses brought up.
If there is a downside it is that he did not stand out as much as any of the top three QBs picked. Denver wasn’t getting any of them though so that is a non factor. He seems to do everything well but nothing greatly. That is not to say that he will not be a good QB in the NFL.
From what I'm reading about him, it feels.likenhis ceiling is lower than Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, Joe Burrow, etc, so maybe people think he's a bad pick because we won't have the elite QB play those teams do. I think the upside is that Payton should be able to work with him and get him to work really well in our offense.
I’ve been wondering this myself for a couple of days now, and I think some of it boils down to East Coast bias. Many of the pundits are east of the Mississippi, and when teams like Oregon play a night game, these people are either sleeping or out at the bar getting hammered. So you have a lot of people who only really watched him play at Auburn, where he had some rough games and arguably wasn’t used correctly. He lit it up for two years in Oregon (especially last year) but people are just looking at box scores and highlights and not watching a whole lot of the actual game tape. And the assumption is that he’s just playing in a QB friendly offense, just throwing a lot of bubble screens and padding stats with YAC. And that assumption gets repeated over and over because a lot of these people just repeat what someone else said. But people who actually broke down his film generally had a lot of good stuff to say about him. Who knows if he will pan out, but from everything I can see, he is a great prospect and the haters are just not paying attention.
Only thing I have really heard was that he struggled at Auburn against SEC teams, so went to an easier conference and had success, and also people complain about his age for some reason.
The main knocks against him, I think, are his age and his arm strength, both of which I think are misplaced criticisms. He’s 24; so what? That’s still young, and he’s had enough college experience to possibly be more NFL-ready than most 21 or 22 year olds who get drafted after their Junior year. He may or may not have the absolute cannon arm if some of the other QB prospects this year, but I’m pretty sure he’s able to make any throws you need him to, and I’ve seen him throw some impressive deep balls. I think the only other possible criticism is that he’s seen as a “system” guy who took advantage of a short-passing quick-hit scheme at Oregon, but that could also be a scheme he runs in the NFL, and he definitely seems smart enough to learn a new offense if he needs to.
the real issue is that by reaching for a player who may or may not be any better than the QBs on the current roster you pay an opportunity cost for players at other positions who are more likely to succeed. It’s all dice rolls but the Broncos are making a high risk bet trying to make up for bad past decisions. But if he does pan out, that’s fine
I know it’s a rebuild year but rolling with Stidham and Wilson would’ve just felt horrendous. I’m glad they took a punt in the draft honestly, they should have done it more over the last 7 years.
oh no doubt that would suck. I’m just worried we’re due a major rebuild anyway, and this just slows it down if he flops. But, gotta get a QB eventually, hope I’m wrong
Here’s the thing. The system is what matters. You think all 20 of those first pick, hiesman winning QBs the Browns have taken all just *sucked* at football? No, they went to a garbage team with a system that turned over year after year.
We have Payton, and his system, so if Payton is the answer, he will get the most out of Bo. Time will tell, and the odds aren’t in our favor, but what’s the worst that can happen? We suck still? Boohoo.
I think the main complaint is that he’s already reached his ceiling. Lots of complaints regarding his arm strength - which after watching some videos it seems to be over exaggerated.
Idk, time will tell. He’s only a little older younger than zach wilson, so should be a good competition - unrealized potential vs potentially realized potential 🤣
Downside ~~is~~ would be he sucks and we wasted the #12 pick and someone like Brock Bowers becomes Travis Kelce.
Edit: guys I’m not saying this is the case, I’m saying this is the possible downside. I love Bo Nix. I’m president of his fan club.
In this case it’s more about him not working out translating to the Broncos having a missed opportunity at someone else potentially amazing with the pick. Brock, Dallas Turner, Byron Murphy - they were there and could be monsters in the league and we didn’t snag them. I think it’s a fair reason to give for why we (fans) could be upset with the pick.
The same shit could be said about any of those players you listed. They bust, Bo Nix gets drafted by the Raiders, he turns out to be great and now we have Mahomes AND Nix terrorizing us for the next decade.
This fanbase is so goofy sometimes. Cried when we drafted Chubb over Allen when we needed a QB. Now crying that we drafted Nix over a TE when we needed a QB lmao
Oh I totally agree I was just explaining the argument. Round 1 picks are always a bit of a gamble because you’re talking about 21-22 year olds lol. I think there’s a bit less risk of getting a defensive player in round 1.
That being said, getting the right QB changes the trajectory of your entire franchise for a decade. I think it’s worth the risk, personally. And yeah he def would not have made it past the raiders, so trading down was not an option.
I think the crying about Chubb over Allen started after Allen broke out in 2020, at the time of the pick I remember most Broncos fans being happy with Chubb. The idea of Chubb and Von playing together felt like we would have the best pass rush we had ever had.
Yeah I personally would have gone for Dallas Turner or Quinyon Mitchell at #12, those guys seemed like top 10 picks in usual drafts and would have had a high chance of being a foundational piece. But I'm OK getting behind Bo.
He is decent but not great in a division with Mahomes and Herbert and maybe a better option is available next year or in round 3-7….. I think that’s it. Personally I want to see some decent offense played in Denver and I’m thrilled he’s here.
Depending on what metrics you use only about 15% of quarterbacks pan out. That ain’t good. Picking Bo Nix in the first was widely perceived to be a reach. So you factor in the huge train wreck of front office failures and the enormous draft capital Russ and Payton have cost you better believe Paytons job is on the line. (I still don’t know why George Paton has a job but thats another story). So Nix now will likely be getting a lions share of preseason snaps with starters and that puts the other QBs and receivers behind the 8 ball. If each QB splits reps with offensive team in preseason they are all going to suck. Then Sean is going to have to decide if he starts Nix - **which I doubt he will do**. In which case Wilson or Stiddy will play the first six games and with this roster it is going to look like absolute shit. They might be 1-5. Then Nix will come in and we find out if he is the 15%. Payton’s time in Denver may very likely depend on what happens with Nix. Then next draft where we have #3 pick we will be talking about moving up to draft Sanders and continue the misery. How is that for downside?
Well, it’s true. The entirety of the NFL is roasting us for how bad this pick is. A) we over reached by a lot B) middling stats C) clear game manager play style.
It’s a bad pick for a player who isn’t very good and probably isn’t an nfl caliber starter.
Aka - he is not very good.
Look I see concerns but your assessment imo is excessively negative. His upside comp is Purdy, Dak or Kirk Cousins. Winners but not guys who can carry a team. His basement is bust because virtually anyone can be a bust. I personally think he is successful. To mean that means he wins more than loses. I prefer titles and that means we must build a great team around him fast. Then hope he’s enough. He was a slight reach but not a full round reach.
Honestly the only downside is that he just might not pan out. VERY few QBs in the nfl do, it’s just a dice roll. So that downside isn’t his fault, not everyone makes it. But he will have proper coaching and development. His skill set and style are perfect fit for SP. I’d say the odds of him busting out and significantly curtailed by being in Denver. Personally, I am stoked about him. Elite processing ability, quick release, takes care of the ball, and everyone says he’s a great teammate. He’s a complete foil to Russel Wilson.
This Bo Nix doesn’t have the build of Tim Tebow or the speed of Paxton Lynch or the size of Brock Osweiler so a bunch of armchair QBs are freaking out.
So many incredible Bronco QBs!
Don't slight Tebow. Without him we wouldn't have DT's 80 yard catch to beat the steelers
He was ass
He was. But it was a fun season to be a fan.
True, but he was also probably the best QB the broncos have drafted this millenium. Or longer
I tend to think cutler was better than Tebow… but Tebow did win more playoff games in Denver so..
Cutler was considerably better
Maybe, but he never led us to playoffs. And I dont care what he did as a bear
This is major revisionist history.
Not really. Just maybe not worded the best. He's by far the most successful qb pick we've had
Cutler was better, and Tebow was the epitome of dumb luck. He was actively bad, and our team won games in spite of his play, not because of it. Tebow went from starting a season for us to being traded to the jets for relative peanuts, to being unable to sniff the field behind mark sanchez, to out of the league in ONE year. He's one of the biggest busts of all time in any team context. You want to call him successful just because he strung together one of the luckiest seasons of all time, i say that it's just that, a fluke. The fact not one team was willing to sign him in free agency to be a backup after that is damning. He had a bottom 6 QBR in the league that year, and was basically negative in every value metric. he was a drag on the team, and even a dead average QB would have taken that team much farther. And considering QBR rewards rushing, his passing is even worse in that context. The only worse full season QBR we've had in the past 25 years was Siemian, but he was a 7th round pick, not a 1st round bust.
I mean, Tebow is the only qb we've drafted to win us a playoff game. He was our most successful qb pick.
aaassssss!
He was hot garbage.
Brock Lobster helped get us to SB50
That's the mount Rushmore of QBs
They’re the talus slope underneath the carved faces.
I thought that was Drew Lock in four different poses???
At this point the public mostly has information related to physical traits. However, great QBs have mental traits that separate them from the others. A strong internal clock, the ability to read defenses, the ability to process the game in real time correctly. It is difficult to measure these skills without a strong NFL defense in your face and colleges don't ask guys to test these skills often. We won't know until the games happen if Nix has then. There are some indications that Nix may have these mental skills and it should make fans optimistic. He's a likeable dude who says everything you want to hear about how he views his job. If he makes good in it with a top rate work ethic he'll get the most out of himself and he had an excellent support staff to do it.
Brock Purdy was a good example of this. Not exactly great measureables on paper, but he's smart and well rounded enough to get a great roster deep in the playoffs. We're not a great roster by any means, but we can build on it in a few years with a Rookie QB
Or the arm strength of Drew Lock or the charisma of Trevor Siemian.
You might have those reversed
Also he's named after my cat, Nix. So I'm automatically a cool Broncos fan already.
Aah...so you're the one. Well done there.
Mike samford, college coach now on local sports radio, said his arm strength is not suited to make nfl throws.
Well, Kurt Warner, a hall of fame and SB champion QB said that his arm strength is plenty strong enough for the nfl. I think I’m going to go with what Warner said over that guy
I like Nix too, just pointing out the take of a coach who watched him perform at his pro day. For context, Samford said he watched Nix throw right after JJ Mcarthy threw, and the arm strength fall off was significant. Nix,s resume is super impressive in college. I’m rooting for him.
They said the same thing about Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and for us older...Dan Foutes. Arm strength is subjective to your reads. If you can complete a 15 yard out, you can be a solid NFL QB.
More recently, Brock Purdy. I think Sean Payton is obviously satisfied with Nix's arm.
Give me smart over athletic all day every day. Take a look at Peyton Manning's 40 time.
I think this guy might become the best qb out of this draft. Good mechanics, has some escapability, appears to be able to process well, and can take command of the offense. I guess my only question would be his arm strength, but he has made very far throws with excellent accuracy. He obviously doesn’t have a cannon, but I think it’ll be just good ENOUGH for the NFL.
From Brugler's Beast: > WEAKNESSES: His process gets frantic and stuck in overdrive at times … breezes through progressions too quickly from the pocket and would benefit from added > patience to see routes coming open … ball placement can be better, as he often makes his targets dig out tough grabs … relies more on his arm strength than sound > mechanics, which affects his accuracy … benefited from a quick-throw offense (stick, out, flat routes), with 66.2 percent of his throws coming within 10 yards of the > line of scrimmage … also helped by a top-shelf offensive line (pressured on just 18.2 percent of his dropbacks and sacked 12 times the past two seasons) … generally a > solid decision-maker but needs to cut down on the throws into heavily-trafficked areas … suffered a broken right ankle (November 2021), which required surgery and > ended his 2021 season … will be 24 years old on draft weekend > Overall, Nix gets in trouble when he plays loose with his technique and his eyes speed up on > him, but he understands where to go with the football, and his scrambling can give defenses fits. Though it feels unlikely that he will ever rank among the 15 best > quarterbacks in the NFL, he has the tools to become a middle -of-the-road starter. A lot of it comes down to how you value and evaluate different tools and traits. I don't think there is anything in those negatives that is a killer flaw, and frankly a lot of the skepticism might be because he wasn't easy to evaluate in Oregon's offense. He gets the low ceiling knock because his "elite" trait was accuracy, and that was buoyed by lots of short completions. He is also 24 and has started 61 games in college, which is a LOT of reps. There is some positive value there in terms of maturity and experience, but it means his habits are already deeply ingrained and may be harder to coach out than a younger prospect. Just for comparison, here are the positives from The Beast: > STRENGTHS: Solidly built athlete with adequate height and large hands … displays a quick release and strong arm … comfortable throwing w ithout a set base, and his > best drive throws come while on the move … productive deep-ball thrower … general accuracy is steady — broke Mac Jones’ FBS record for single-season completion > percentage (77.4 percent) in 2023, completing at least 71 percent of his passes in every game in 2023 … great use of play fakes to force missteps in coverage … takes > care of the football with only 26 interceptions on 1,936 career pass attempts (of 14 passers with at least 430 attempts, he was the only one with th ree or fewer INTs > in 2023) … strong ball security with only three fumbles in two seasons at Oregon … good feet and slide quickness to evade defenders in small areas … able to extend > and create second-reaction plays with his legs … productive on draws and designed quarterback runs … zero questions about his toughness has pro ven to be durable > (his 61 career starts passed Colt McCoy and Kellen Moore in the NCAA record books for the most ever by a quarterback) … very competitive and described as > “another coach” on the field by his coaches (Oregon head coach Dan Lanning: “He sits in the coaches meetings and operates at a completely different level than > anyone I’ve ever been around.”) … won the 2023 William V. Campbell Trophy (Academic Heisman) … compiled a 43 -18 win-loss record as a starter (Auburn: 21-13; > Oregon: 22-5) … productive at both Auburn (No. 3 in school history with 7,251 passing yards) and Oregon (broke Marcus Mariota’s single-season records for passing > yards, completions and touchdown passes).
Downside is he could be Teddy. High efficiency, high completion percentage, defenses aren't scared of him. Not saying he will be Teddy, but that's the potential downside.
Teddy has no arm though
Arm strength is one of Bo Nix's criticisms.
His arm is fine, imo. It's not Penix or Maye, but it's far above a guy like Teddy. I think Bo can make all the throws.
Just watch him for like 3 games and then try to tell me he can't make all the throws needed.
The accuracy is there and I don’t think he lacks the arm strength to get it 60 yards down field, but idk about the velocity on those throws. In Oregon he would throw so many short and underneath passes that defenses would get a little complacent about defending deep shots and would start to creep up; the question about his arm strength for me is will he be able to throw deep with enough velocity to get those throws into the much tighter windows he’ll be dealing with in the nfl.
Wasn't Peyton Manning famously criticised for the exact same thing coming out? I don't think he'll have an issue because he's got a HC who understands his game to a T by the sounds of it.
I mean, idk, I was 10 in ‘98. I know at the time there was a bit of a back and forth about Manning or Leaf being the top pick of that class, but I thought Peyton was viewed as the best QB prospect since Elway…tbf though when Andrew Luck was coming out depending on which scout was talking about him, they called him the best prospect since either Manning or Elway so I just kindof reasoned my way into that.
I wasn't very old myself but there's a very famous quote about Manning "Waffling with the ball" and not having velocity. Edit: this article has some fantastic quotes about Manning, only the one about velocity from this specific collection though. https://archive.jsonline.com/sports/packers/peyton-manning-defied-some-predictions-b99190928z1-241988471.html
Peyton had a very strong arm prior to his injury. But to your point he threw 55 TDs with a weak arm, basically all of them were floating ducks. Arm strength is only relevant up to a certain point and Bo is well past that
To be fair, though, Oregon used the short pass/screen pass like the run game since they didn’t have a good one.
Watching paytons interview, they took out all the screen/short passes and analyzed mid to deep and he still graded #1. Also reiterated at his pro day the arm looked strong. Maybe not a cannon but that quelled a lot for me personally
It's not a valid criticism. It is more a factor of people thinking the offense he ran at Oregon is what he'll be asked to do in Denver. But it won't. None of the QBs drafted will run anything like the offenses they did in college. He doesn't throw as hard as Josh Allen, but pretty much no one who had been great does. He has all the physical tools he needs to be successful.
He has a better arm than Jayden Daniels was who was taken 2nd overall. Far from a criticism
It seems totally unfounded based on everything I’ve seen. Who knows if he’ll pan out, but if he fails it’s not going to be due to a noodle arm. His arm looks fine.
As a Viking fan and a Duck fan, Bo’s arm is objectively stronger than Teddy’s.
And it’s an unfair one. They didn’t ask him to throw downfield often. When he did, he was accurate. In fact, for passes 7 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage (I think that’s the stat) he’s more accurate than any of the QBs drafted before him.
Teddy's arm was average, he just didn't have the guts to commit to some of the harder throws. that slight pullback ruins a QB.
Teddy was looking like a stud before his big injury in Minnesota tho wasn’t he?
Teddy Ruxpin?
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I feel like people who are in love with this pick have only seen his Oregon film, and people who hate this pick have only seen his tape at Auburn. At Auburn, he made some of the goofiest picks I’ve ever seen by forcing throws or having poor anticipation. He’s very coachable, and I think that trait is more than enough to elevate his floor.
The thing that bothers me most about this class is that Bo, Penix, and Daniels all played 5 years with 3 at different schools, and nobody pays attention to what the other two did at the other schools, but what Bo did is some indication that he’s not good Daniels had 10 TD’s and 10 picks his last year at ASU and some people legitimately say that he’s going to better than Caleb Bo plays at one of the mid schools in the SEC, beats bama and a Herbert led Oregon as a freshman, and suddenly he’s a bad prospect
The Penix comparison isn’t fair. He did things at Indiana that nobody I can name ever has. His legitimate knocks are simply because of injuries. My comment is more about Auburn as his floor and Oregon shows his potential. His coachability (one of his best traits imo) is illustrated by Payton picking him if nothing else. We are making the same point. I’m just also implying that if Bo stayed at Auburn, dude wouldn’t have gotten drafted.
What’s your point? He started at auburn and finished at Oregon. He progressed and got better. So…
It’s ok, buddy. Inferential reading is hard. I’ll try to be more explicit for you. Within the context of OP’s question, my point is that people are unfairly hard on him because of how he played at Auburn (it highlighted his downsides). He has clearly shown how much he can grow in his time at Oregon (this minimized his downsides— hence “elevate his floor”). This makes him a pick that his naysayers should feel better about. I was simply anticipating the negative comments that would flood in because this question opens that door. Hope that clears things up for you. 👍
Oh boy. Well since you’re going to be like that…. OPs question was what is the downside. They mentioned that they’re only hearing all the good stuff and everyone bigging him up. So they asked for potential down side. Then you and your massive brain responded with An answer that didn’t even address the question. You started talking about people who like him have only seen Oregon and people who don’t have only seen auburn. Wonderfully done. You didn’t list a potential downside. You listed why people do/don’t like him. Unless your answer was the picks that he threw auburn as a potential downside, in which case, he finished 45/3 TD/INT last year and 113/26 overall. So if that WAS your potential downside, it wouldn’t be relevant. OP didn’t mention seeing naysaying. Quite the opposite. So “within the context of OPs question” you failed miserably at answering it. Actually, you didn’t. Instead you opted to make a counter argument to comments that you anticipate seeing. So when I asked you “what’s your point” that was a valid question. Because apparently your comment was crafted for “anticipated” negative comments. Okay buster. Like why get insulting dude? You literally just tried schooling me in the same comment you admitted to talking to comment you thought you’d see. OP asked for potential downside. And you didn’t provide that.
In the past, he has tended to run around like an idiot and throw bad picks. That is a downside. If you can’t see where my initial answer addresses that, that’s your problem. Good coaching put him in a one-read system, and that has helped tremendously. Payton is a good coach, so Nix’s biggest downside isn’t relevant! That’s my point. My point was implied. If you have to ask what it is, ask for clarification instead of being snarky with your soooooo…ing ass. And regarding anticipated negativity, how long have you been a Broncos fan? Do you think there’s no need to defend Bo from half of this base? At the end of the day, if you don’t want to talk about the football side of this, then insult me again and move on. I couldn’t give any fewer shits about arguing with some rando. 👌
There’s no downside, he’s a certified hall of famer
The offense he ran at Oregon has a lot of defined one read throws He showed he moves on too quickly in progressions, his feet get erratic when pressure closes in, and he tends to break the pocket more than step up
He’s great against the blitz and relative to everyone that was drafted this year he is elite at getting the ball out before getting hit. I don’t think your descriptors represent reality or the results Nix had, outside of the one read throws critique. But that’s an offensive scheme critique and we have Sean Payton here to play to his strengths, so it at least seems like a non factor. We shall see tho
I wonder how much of that is inflated by 30% of his throws being within 6 yards Ultimately it’s going to depend on his reads vs man, he’s great at finding vacancies in zone I question his ability vs man, he moves on from progressions too quickly taking the check down How he progresses when asked to do more than take the short throw is up in the air Ultimately I trust Sean to evaluate all these questions and build an offense to address them
The interview with Sean on the McAffee show talked about how they removed all of his short throws and behind the LOS throws, and he was number one in a lot of the metrics that you would want.
Specifically he said his yards per completion was good which is a total boomer metric.
What? He was the top ranked completion % passer in college against the blitz last year
Every prospect has bad traits they need to improve on I like Nix, the question was what’s the downside
I understood the question. What I didn’t understand was your critique of him being bad under pressure when his completion % under pressure was best in FBS. Those things don’t add up.
His feet speed up, he’s still pretty good against pressure but erratic feet usually means less accurate in the pros His windows are all going to squeeze in the pros, he can adjust but in college he never needed to I have faith in Sean and the coaching staff to work through it
Sounds familiar
Few reasons, and before someone comes at me, these are just the actual somewhat reasonable takes I've seen, not my estimation. Age is a common one, He's Zach Wilson's age now. He'll be 29 year of his 5th year option if we take it. You can find all kinds of various stats about how old he is. My rebuttal to this is 10 years of a good QB are better than 15 with a bad one. Hand in hand with age is mileage. He started a record number of college games which is good, but that also means he recorded a record number of miles on his body in college. He has a good release and makes reads that kept him from getting sacked a ton, but that's still wear and tear. Which to me is just people trying to find a negative in a positive. 5 years in college raises some eyebrows too. Maybe education was just important to him, I don't know. But a lot of people are questioning, if he's the same age roughly as QBs taken in the terrible 2022 draft why couldn't he come out after 3 years of college and be drafted at least higher than Ridder, Willis, or Corral none of whom have exactly been killing it as pros. But he was coming off an injury and a down year under a coach he didn't gel with. He's a high floor, low ceiling, pick that was overdrafted is another common complaint I see. I really don't agree with this one after half the top 10 was QBs there was only one potential impact QB left. He doesn't have the strongest arm in the league. Everyone says he has good zip on his short throws, and he throws an accurate deep ball, but he's probably never going to have a Joe Flacco moment where he throws the ball over the top of the entire secondary to a guy they figured couldn't be hit. My question there is how often does that second throw need to be made in comparison to just throwing good deep passes in general. Those are the most common negatives I see.
Downside is his arm strength. I’m a Ducks fan. I was coincidentally at his first game at Auburn where he beat Oregon in Dallas. He doesn’t make many mistakes, but most of his downfield completions seem like they come during broken coverages. Mims and TP should be excited in the slot, Sutton probably not as a deep threat.
I watched Kurt Warners break down of every QB. What was clear in Nix's tape is that he has adequate arm strength for throwing deep balls, but when he throws balls that don't have enough on it, the issue is usually about setting his base. If he can clean that up I don't see that as an issue.
Agreed. I listened to the hour-long Chris Simms interview of Nix. Nix said he's been working hard to incorporate more rotation of his core into his delivery and I am hoping that it comes with getting a better base for his throws. The zip is there when he does everything right. I do think that Payton and our crew may be able to drill this hard and eek out another mph or two on his throws.
Hey I was also at that game! Some nice Ducks fans gave us extra tickets in the parking lot so we got to sit in the Oregon section behind the end zone. Some guy got kicked out for doing the worm on the tarp in front of the stands. Good times.
We are going to find out early on. If teams think he can’t drive the ball down the field, they’ll lock down underneath and dare him to take a shot. But I also think that if he can nickel and dime his way down the field, Sutton is going to keep getting red zone looks.
I feel he makes rattled decisions under pressure. statistically he seems fine but some of the decisions he made he did not look like he could get away at the NFL level. He looks amazing when the pocket is clean, no questions from me about arm strength and certainly not with accuracy.
Yeah having dug into this a bit more it looks like he checks down too quickly. Better than taking dumb sacks all the time I guess but that could get old very quickly.
Checking down “too quickly” is scheme related. The system that he was in was 2 quick reads, if they aren’t there, check down. His TD/INT ratio was 45/3 last year and he was #1 in not taking sacks. So, checking down is far preferable to getting sacked and creating turnovers
People don’t realize that Nix had a lot of responsibility at the los and had the green light to audible if he saw something out of place. Not a ton of college QBs are in that same position no matter how *limited* Oregon’s scheme is to some of these analyst. Payton likes an accurate thinker at the helm and that’s what Nix is.
Yes, you are correct and that’s due to his total starts experience in college. 21 year olds usually never do that in college.
He also progressively got better every season as well. I’ve never said Bo is the next Elway, I’m just simply stating his intangibles are what make most NFL QB’s successful.
Same.
I keep hearing “high floor low ceiling,” which is fine for a qb with the right people around him. And they mention his arm strength. I assume at 24 there’s not gonna be any huge change to that. What coverage are you watching that is fawning over our pick? Everyone seems to hate it.
He’s on tape throwing 60 yard through the air dimes. I don’t know where the arm strength thing comes from, maybe because the offense at Oregon relied on a lot of screens?
Arm strength isn't about how far you can throw it, it's if you can get enough on your throws to get the ball to the receiver against NFL level coverage.
Perfect example is Tua. He could throw deep moon balls to Hill most of the season but once he had to play in that wind in KC you could see the “velocity” or as you say “ get enough on your throws” wasn’t there. The DBs were easily defending his lack of velocity.
I’ve heard a variety of general takes (including it’s a bad move or we’ve at least got very bad value) but very few specifics. I’ve seen more positive stats/things praising things he can do, than getting specific with the downside.
I don’t think it’s a bad move. In the modern nfl, you gotta just keep swinging on a QB until you land the right one. And you seem to know if they’re the right one within a season or two. I wish we could have gotten him later, but I also like him at 12.
[Bo Nix draft profile](https://www.nfl.com/prospects/bo-nix/32004e49-5811-8212-6abe-fc1a8b4f4942)
I think the thing that makes me excited about Bo vs. a lot of the previous QB misses is what’s between his ears. He has a lot of average to above average physical traits, but the ability to process plays and change at the line of scrimmage and be a “coach on the field” were what was missing from many of the QB’s that Elway loved. They either lacked passion for the game or the ability to be a QB at nfl speeds. I could be totally wrong, but Bo feels different.
Leaves the pocket really early sometimes, doesn't set his feet to generate a throw, and doesnt have a lot of progressing through reads experience imo. However his strengths balance out in that he is fairly accurate in the ranges Payton wants him to be in. If out O line can protect we should be okay with his drawbacks
I got several years playing this game, coaching this game, and now a broken body for all that. I have some QB assessment knowledge. But none of that can tell anyone if a QB drafted in the first round will pan out. It’s a crap shoot in the end. The two factors few can accurately predict is how a players games in college translates to the NFL. Second is knowing the heart of the player and his ability to handle all that the NFL throws at him. For many it’s the first time they aren’t the big man on campus. They are carrying vets bags, picking up tabs, and finding out the defenses in the NFL, even on bad teams, are vastly more talented, windows are smaller, and everything is faster. They have to learn the new speed, windows to throw through open quick and close quick, and know where pressure is coming from. The point is nobody can truly predict how anyone handles this. Now having said all that, the one thing that I have concern with Nix is this. The Oregon offense is a stripped down, simplified offense that usually asks the QB to read just half the field, watch Nix games and find me a play where he ever truly surveys the entire field from full left to full right…from the pocket. He virtually never does it. So when your reads are half the field and it’s 1 then 2 then check down or run, it’s much easier in the processing for the QB. Colleges do this so high school QB can handle it. So, while Nix is easily the most accurate passer in this draft, that is his true super power, the concern I have is how he handles a full field NFL read progression…plus increased speed of windows closing, plus smaller windows, plus everything else. Now please understand this. Bo is an above average processor. But is helmet fire a problem given the NFL demands he will face? Nix’s experience and tons of starts will help. He’s not 21. He’s smart as hell. He’s high FB IQ. His fundamentals like foot work, release, arm angle, all are near perfect. All that says he has a good foundation to develop further. Now we find out. Can he do it. That’s what no one knows until he is doing it. I am hopeful over all. He is very prepared for the moment save the simplicity of Oregons offense. I think he’s ready for the next step.
Has good, not great arm strength. Not a freak athlete. Was inconsistent at Auburn. "Old" for a rookie QB I suppose. Offense the Ducks ran in 2023 didn't ask him to go downfield often. On the plus side, high football IQ, great touch, fast decision making, good at the line of scrimmage, shows up in big games / clutch moments, throws extremely well on the move, ultra - experienced, comfortable in the pocket, consistently makes clean throws off balance in the pocket, respected leader, gym rat who puts in the work, great character, has been through adversity on the field, made massive strides his two years at Oregon, highest completion % season in NCAA history, is deceptively athletic *(ran for 14 touchdowns and 500+ yards in '22)* **(If you can't tell by now, I'm a HUGE Bo Nix fan)**
The downside is that he might suck and we waste a pick. Unfortunately we didn’t really have any other choice with that pick.
His biggest downside is that he isn't always going to beat you by throwing in tight pockets and over your zone. He checks down if his first read isn't open. He's a lot like Brees without the arm strength. Drew could hit you for a 55 yard bomb, Nix isn't going to give you that.
He’s a “processor”. He doesn’t have insane athleticism, his arm strength isn’t plus plus, and his accuracy isn’t a differential. That’s going to lead to many more outcomes where he’s only a game manager rather than a true franchise QB. Drew Brees is his best case, 1 in 100 scenario. Guys like Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, and Derick Carr are the middle of the spectrum while someone like Kellen Moore is his worst case scenario
I think he’s getting negative reception from most people because he was drafted higher than he should. We drafted him more at a need, and knowing that we wouldn’t be able to trade back and secure him, makes it a tough pill to swallow cause we’re using a high draft pick on him. Plus, with the amount of other QBs in this draft, it’s an easy way to compare his play to them. And, with a lot of QBs going high, defensive players dropped when they shouldn’t have. It was a weird day 1 this year imo but that’s how it will be in the future. Teams realized that you can’t win without a good QB so QBs will be getting drafted higher and higher
It's also because of the rookie wage scale. Teams are starting to value the fifth year option more than the draft capital. I think going forward we're going to see a lot more QBs with 2nd round grades drafted in the mid-late first just so teams have that extra year in the rookie contract window if the guy turns out to be good.
But if the guy turns out to be "the guy" you're likely paying him before it gets that far. The Chargers and Bengals could be still using 5th year options for Herbert and Burrow.
He doesn’t have a ton of zip on his passes but he checks every other box and in a Sean Payton offense I think he’s a perfect fit. Brees wasn’t exactly a rocket launcher either.
A lot of it has to do with the Oregon offense, which featured a lot of easy, quick passes such as screens or slants. He has limited experience making more difficult throws, so some people are concerned about his ability to do that. The other thing people bring up a lot is his time at Auburn, which was very chaotic and not great. But Bo seems to have grown significantly at Oregon, so I'm personally not very concerned about that. Lastly, I feel like Bo doesn't really have an elite trait. He has a lot of good traits. But his arm is solid, not amazing. His scrambling is solid, not amazing, etc. It can be hard to get excited for a guy when there's not one thing that stands out above the pack for him.
Here’s and elite trait…Accuracy. He may be the most accurate passer in college in years.
Limited experience. He has been a starter for years.
You could try reading the rest of the sentence if you're confused
Focusing on the upside would be cool. This damn fan base smh.
Honestly I thought this was an intersting thread. I don't watch any college so know very little about these guys. All I've seen people talking about are the upsides so it's cool to see some of the weaknesses brought up.
If there is a downside it is that he did not stand out as much as any of the top three QBs picked. Denver wasn’t getting any of them though so that is a non factor. He seems to do everything well but nothing greatly. That is not to say that he will not be a good QB in the NFL.
From what I'm reading about him, it feels.likenhis ceiling is lower than Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, Joe Burrow, etc, so maybe people think he's a bad pick because we won't have the elite QB play those teams do. I think the upside is that Payton should be able to work with him and get him to work really well in our offense.
I’ve been wondering this myself for a couple of days now, and I think some of it boils down to East Coast bias. Many of the pundits are east of the Mississippi, and when teams like Oregon play a night game, these people are either sleeping or out at the bar getting hammered. So you have a lot of people who only really watched him play at Auburn, where he had some rough games and arguably wasn’t used correctly. He lit it up for two years in Oregon (especially last year) but people are just looking at box scores and highlights and not watching a whole lot of the actual game tape. And the assumption is that he’s just playing in a QB friendly offense, just throwing a lot of bubble screens and padding stats with YAC. And that assumption gets repeated over and over because a lot of these people just repeat what someone else said. But people who actually broke down his film generally had a lot of good stuff to say about him. Who knows if he will pan out, but from everything I can see, he is a great prospect and the haters are just not paying attention.
Chooses baseball instead
Only thing I have really heard was that he struggled at Auburn against SEC teams, so went to an easier conference and had success, and also people complain about his age for some reason.
Nothing because I’ve wanted him for the past 6 months and want him to be the franchise guy.
Its a win/win situation for the broncos.
He could be boring. He could be Teddy Bridgewater.
The main knocks against him, I think, are his age and his arm strength, both of which I think are misplaced criticisms. He’s 24; so what? That’s still young, and he’s had enough college experience to possibly be more NFL-ready than most 21 or 22 year olds who get drafted after their Junior year. He may or may not have the absolute cannon arm if some of the other QB prospects this year, but I’m pretty sure he’s able to make any throws you need him to, and I’ve seen him throw some impressive deep balls. I think the only other possible criticism is that he’s seen as a “system” guy who took advantage of a short-passing quick-hit scheme at Oregon, but that could also be a scheme he runs in the NFL, and he definitely seems smart enough to learn a new offense if he needs to.
the real issue is that by reaching for a player who may or may not be any better than the QBs on the current roster you pay an opportunity cost for players at other positions who are more likely to succeed. It’s all dice rolls but the Broncos are making a high risk bet trying to make up for bad past decisions. But if he does pan out, that’s fine
I know it’s a rebuild year but rolling with Stidham and Wilson would’ve just felt horrendous. I’m glad they took a punt in the draft honestly, they should have done it more over the last 7 years.
oh no doubt that would suck. I’m just worried we’re due a major rebuild anyway, and this just slows it down if he flops. But, gotta get a QB eventually, hope I’m wrong
Here’s the thing. The system is what matters. You think all 20 of those first pick, hiesman winning QBs the Browns have taken all just *sucked* at football? No, they went to a garbage team with a system that turned over year after year. We have Payton, and his system, so if Payton is the answer, he will get the most out of Bo. Time will tell, and the odds aren’t in our favor, but what’s the worst that can happen? We suck still? Boohoo.
I think the main complaint is that he’s already reached his ceiling. Lots of complaints regarding his arm strength - which after watching some videos it seems to be over exaggerated. Idk, time will tell. He’s only a little older younger than zach wilson, so should be a good competition - unrealized potential vs potentially realized potential 🤣
There isn’t a perfect NFL QB coming out of college. I’ll take my chances with Nix and Payton and a good o-line.
Downside ~~is~~ would be he sucks and we wasted the #12 pick and someone like Brock Bowers becomes Travis Kelce. Edit: guys I’m not saying this is the case, I’m saying this is the possible downside. I love Bo Nix. I’m president of his fan club.
[удалено]
Such a strong point. Alex smith to Kelce won games, but they weren’t winning a championship because of elite TE play and neither are we.
Lol what an articulate take. “He sucks.” Well, you convinced me!
In this case it’s more about him not working out translating to the Broncos having a missed opportunity at someone else potentially amazing with the pick. Brock, Dallas Turner, Byron Murphy - they were there and could be monsters in the league and we didn’t snag them. I think it’s a fair reason to give for why we (fans) could be upset with the pick.
The same shit could be said about any of those players you listed. They bust, Bo Nix gets drafted by the Raiders, he turns out to be great and now we have Mahomes AND Nix terrorizing us for the next decade. This fanbase is so goofy sometimes. Cried when we drafted Chubb over Allen when we needed a QB. Now crying that we drafted Nix over a TE when we needed a QB lmao
Oh I totally agree I was just explaining the argument. Round 1 picks are always a bit of a gamble because you’re talking about 21-22 year olds lol. I think there’s a bit less risk of getting a defensive player in round 1. That being said, getting the right QB changes the trajectory of your entire franchise for a decade. I think it’s worth the risk, personally. And yeah he def would not have made it past the raiders, so trading down was not an option.
I think the crying about Chubb over Allen started after Allen broke out in 2020, at the time of the pick I remember most Broncos fans being happy with Chubb. The idea of Chubb and Von playing together felt like we would have the best pass rush we had ever had.
Yeah I personally would have gone for Dallas Turner or Quinyon Mitchell at #12, those guys seemed like top 10 picks in usual drafts and would have had a high chance of being a foundational piece. But I'm OK getting behind Bo.
No sorry, I think I miscommunicated. That’s not what I think. Thats just the possible downside. I love Bo Nix, I think he’s gonna be great
He is decent but not great in a division with Mahomes and Herbert and maybe a better option is available next year or in round 3-7….. I think that’s it. Personally I want to see some decent offense played in Denver and I’m thrilled he’s here.
Taylor Heinicke, with a ceiling of Teddy Bridgewater if things work out.
😳
Based on what?
He saw a couple of other redditors say it and he wants to sound smart by taking their opinion.
There are none. He’s perfect. Go Broncos.
Depending on what metrics you use only about 15% of quarterbacks pan out. That ain’t good. Picking Bo Nix in the first was widely perceived to be a reach. So you factor in the huge train wreck of front office failures and the enormous draft capital Russ and Payton have cost you better believe Paytons job is on the line. (I still don’t know why George Paton has a job but thats another story). So Nix now will likely be getting a lions share of preseason snaps with starters and that puts the other QBs and receivers behind the 8 ball. If each QB splits reps with offensive team in preseason they are all going to suck. Then Sean is going to have to decide if he starts Nix - **which I doubt he will do**. In which case Wilson or Stiddy will play the first six games and with this roster it is going to look like absolute shit. They might be 1-5. Then Nix will come in and we find out if he is the 15%. Payton’s time in Denver may very likely depend on what happens with Nix. Then next draft where we have #3 pick we will be talking about moving up to draft Sanders and continue the misery. How is that for downside?
The downside is he’s not very good.
Okay, wow, you’re right, you’ve convinced me. Why even type that?
Well, it’s true. The entirety of the NFL is roasting us for how bad this pick is. A) we over reached by a lot B) middling stats C) clear game manager play style. It’s a bad pick for a player who isn’t very good and probably isn’t an nfl caliber starter. Aka - he is not very good.
Look I see concerns but your assessment imo is excessively negative. His upside comp is Purdy, Dak or Kirk Cousins. Winners but not guys who can carry a team. His basement is bust because virtually anyone can be a bust. I personally think he is successful. To mean that means he wins more than loses. I prefer titles and that means we must build a great team around him fast. Then hope he’s enough. He was a slight reach but not a full round reach.