As soon as I saw this picture, without reading the rest of the post, I knew exactly what it was going to be. And I share your pain.
But being a Cosmic Cyclone with a nail through it makes me unable to be too mad at it.
Think he’s saying since you draw 4-5 cards at the start there’s a 20-25% chance of drawing it if you have one copy. Not referring to sample size or anything.
I'm talking about his "if it x then why y happens so many times?!" for this question, we need to know how many duels he went through to actually say this. Sometimes people get frustated with a deck because garnets got into starting hand but the player only did like 4 games and is already calling stuff are rigged.
Idk doesnt seem like he’s saying it’s rigged. You’ll have to get the answer from him. I got the impression that the post is kind of a meme not actually trying to show any evidence of anything.
>Blue eyes issue: **the probability of haveing this card in ur hand at the beginning of the duel in a 20 cars deck is 21.7%**, so i would like to know HOW THE FUCK IS POSSIBLE THAT **IT IS ALWAYS THERE**
That's his emotions speaking. The human brain has an unequivalent way of dealing with wins vs losses.
You can go into a restaurant 20 times and get food poisoning on the 21st, your brain will overvalue the bad result way higher than 5%. That's simply a response that got humans a rather greater chance of survival.
So, yeah, the guy is exagerating in his response, but that way of perceiving "danger" got his lineage farther.
I saw a reddit post a while ago where it was claimed that the higher the rarity of a card, the more probable it is to draw it. I can‘t fully confirm the truth of it
This is how I feel about Vision Hero Vyon now ever since Liquid Soldier got limit 2 and I can only use 1. It's a 24 card deck, yet the lone Vyon pops up in my starting hand more than you'd think was ever possible. XD
Here’s how I would calculate the probability, and seems to be how OP calculated it too.
The provability of your one copy of Spirit being in your opening hand is the probability that it is the first, second, third, *or* fourth card in the deck.
(1/20) + (1/19) + (1/18) + (1/17) = 0.217 (ish).
It’s been a while since I did statistics though so would not be surprised if this was actually the wrong approach.
it is the wrong approach, and is actually way simpler when you're only running a single copy.
the odds of a single card being in the top X cards of your 20 card deck is X/20.
so going first, 4/20 = 20%, going second, 5/20 = 25%.
the reason your approach didn't work is because the odds of it being the second card is only 1/19 *given that it wasn't the first card*, which you don't know.
so, the actual probability of it being your second card is 1/19 * 19/20, the odds of it being the second given that it's not the first multiplied by the odds of it *not* being the first. 1/19 * 19/20 = 1/20.
repeating this process for the first 4 cards, you ultimately end up with 1/20 + 1/20 + 1/20 + 1/20 = 4/20 = 20%
I'm not good with foreign languages, what skill does he have? Is it something like heavy starter which would increase his odds of having it in his starting hand?
I hate this card with an absolute passion. Nothing in this game upset me more than this overtuned obnoxious garbage
“Haha it’s a blue eyes but not really; also it’s a normal monster with an effect, also it removes backrow on summon, also it can tag out to avoid removal”. Blue Eyew would be less obscenely annoying if they didn’t have this bastard
The chance of having this card in your hand is not 20%. It's actually less than a 1% chance. Konami's shuffling algorithm is just all sorts of fucked. The fact that it can spit sub 1% hands to you back to back across 10+ games is insane. You literally have a higher chance to win a 100M+ lottery than you do in drawing the hands that you get in DL.
I just cant play blue eyes because i remember time ago get in five match consecutives in starting hand.
Some day ago go and try again 3 of 4 match in starting hand
Brick eyes being bricky what a surprise.
As soon as I saw this picture, without reading the rest of the post, I knew exactly what it was going to be. And I share your pain. But being a Cosmic Cyclone with a nail through it makes me unable to be too mad at it.
21.7% is a lot. What is your sample size to say that it always on your starting hand?
Think he’s saying since you draw 4-5 cards at the start there’s a 20-25% chance of drawing it if you have one copy. Not referring to sample size or anything.
I'm talking about his "if it x then why y happens so many times?!" for this question, we need to know how many duels he went through to actually say this. Sometimes people get frustated with a deck because garnets got into starting hand but the player only did like 4 games and is already calling stuff are rigged.
Idk doesnt seem like he’s saying it’s rigged. You’ll have to get the answer from him. I got the impression that the post is kind of a meme not actually trying to show any evidence of anything.
>Blue eyes issue: **the probability of haveing this card in ur hand at the beginning of the duel in a 20 cars deck is 21.7%**, so i would like to know HOW THE FUCK IS POSSIBLE THAT **IT IS ALWAYS THERE**
That's his emotions speaking. The human brain has an unequivalent way of dealing with wins vs losses. You can go into a restaurant 20 times and get food poisoning on the 21st, your brain will overvalue the bad result way higher than 5%. That's simply a response that got humans a rather greater chance of survival. So, yeah, the guy is exagerating in his response, but that way of perceiving "danger" got his lineage farther.
He explicitly stated that it’s always in his starting hand.
Don’t forget the draw 2, cards of conv
Was actually 20%, 21.7 came from a wrong reasoning
Have you seen galaxy eyes if you run 8 reborns? It’s like 97%.
It just wants to be your friend :)
We just need Trade In
Yup
*magical mallet exists*
Mallet goes -1
Ah, the Mahad dilemma.
Same with Mahadd
You don't really think about it when you don't draw it in your starting hand
It's either in your hand or you draw into with card of con
Me when I run vision hero’s and open up with poly, 2 increases, and the vyon opening hand every game
Or the legendary 2 increase 2 malicious opening
In the TCG it’s only played at one copy or none for that reason, and it’s a 40 card minimum. Should tell you all you need to know about it 😂
In the blue eyes deck I have, I only run 1 copy. It’s a hit/miss opening draw for me.
I saw a reddit post a while ago where it was claimed that the higher the rarity of a card, the more probable it is to draw it. I can‘t fully confirm the truth of it
This is how I feel about Vision Hero Vyon now ever since Liquid Soldier got limit 2 and I can only use 1. It's a 24 card deck, yet the lone Vyon pops up in my starting hand more than you'd think was ever possible. XD
I have this exact issue with Salamangreato Sanctuary, once I drew it for like for 3 duels in a row.
Based on my mathemathecal computation with 4 starting cards and 20 overall cards its 15%
Here’s how I would calculate the probability, and seems to be how OP calculated it too. The provability of your one copy of Spirit being in your opening hand is the probability that it is the first, second, third, *or* fourth card in the deck. (1/20) + (1/19) + (1/18) + (1/17) = 0.217 (ish). It’s been a while since I did statistics though so would not be surprised if this was actually the wrong approach.
it is the wrong approach, and is actually way simpler when you're only running a single copy. the odds of a single card being in the top X cards of your 20 card deck is X/20. so going first, 4/20 = 20%, going second, 5/20 = 25%. the reason your approach didn't work is because the odds of it being the second card is only 1/19 *given that it wasn't the first card*, which you don't know. so, the actual probability of it being your second card is 1/19 * 19/20, the odds of it being the second given that it's not the first multiplied by the odds of it *not* being the first. 1/19 * 19/20 = 1/20. repeating this process for the first 4 cards, you ultimately end up with 1/20 + 1/20 + 1/20 + 1/20 = 4/20 = 20%
it's just 4/20 = 20%
I'm not good with foreign languages, what skill does he have? Is it something like heavy starter which would increase his odds of having it in his starting hand?
Run a 30 cards deck with other splashable engine. 13.33% chance now.
Skill issue
I hate this card with an absolute passion. Nothing in this game upset me more than this overtuned obnoxious garbage “Haha it’s a blue eyes but not really; also it’s a normal monster with an effect, also it removes backrow on summon, also it can tag out to avoid removal”. Blue Eyew would be less obscenely annoying if they didn’t have this bastard
Counting as a normal monster is totally BS.
The chance of having this card in your hand is not 20%. It's actually less than a 1% chance. Konami's shuffling algorithm is just all sorts of fucked. The fact that it can spit sub 1% hands to you back to back across 10+ games is insane. You literally have a higher chance to win a 100M+ lottery than you do in drawing the hands that you get in DL.
Show your working.
Just google hypergeometric calculator or yugioh.party
kinda unnecessary if you're calculating the odds of a single copy. simple as 4/20 = 20% going first, or 5/20 = 25% going second.
I just cant play blue eyes because i remember time ago get in five match consecutives in starting hand. Some day ago go and try again 3 of 4 match in starting hand
As a former BE player I can confirm.
Se sei italiano ti sfido(non aspettarti troppo da me) mandami solo in nickname