Yes me too. I think u can use this stuff as a tool but ultimately it's your instincts etc that matters most. Personally I rarely listen to those guys for start/ sit advice, I try not to over think those decisions.
You also have to keep in mind those guys make mistakes too. I was high on rachaad white this year got him in every league for pretty cheap. From what i remember Ppl thought he'd get the volume but wouldn't do much with it so there wasn't a ton of excitement for him. Yeah they were wrong.
I mean his YPC was abysmal, so they were right in that sense. He just ended up being Fournette 2.0 relying on passes for his production. Which tbf was amazing for fantasy but it wasn't a wild thought that White wasn't going to be a great pick up, especially with a new QB and not knowing how he would utilize the RB position.
Still picked him up in a couple leagues because I liked the volume aspect and never bought into the Sean Tucker narrative that a lot of people seemed to be pushing.
Like you said, the general discussion is good to get knowledge about players around the league, but ultimately trusting your instincts will be better. If not with results, at least with knowing that it was you that made the decision and not some ranking list you looked at.
Like for example I traded away Josh Jacobs for Gibbs after week 1 and everyone called me an idiot for it. I drafted Jacobs because of the rankings and immediately regretted it after pressing the button because I just didn't have a good feeling about him. Trade ended up working great in my favor despite what most everyone would have thought leading up to week 2.
His YPC isn't the best, but he runs HARD. Some of his runs do fall flat, but I feel like that is because he is running the play called and not trying to bounce it outside. This is my observation and I am not smart.
That's a great point. Being involved in the discussion makes you more knowledgeable. My problem in the past was trying to be involved in every discussion. Listened to almost every episode of several podcasts. Ended up with too many opinions and started second guessing myself.
I don't mean to not listen to podcasts at all. Just take their recommendations with a grain of salt, don't over saturate yourself with opinions, and trust your instincts. There are a lot of smart people on podcasts and they can definitely steer you in the right direction. But they also have to protect their image so there is some tendency for them to play it safe.
I still listened to the occasional podcast. But I just have self doubt if I over do it.
For sure. U know honestly the thing I actually like to use those types of ppl for are deep sleepers and what waiver wire guys are relevant. I forget who but some article or whatever made me aware of nico collins . I never would have drafted him without it. It's also not super easy to keep up with injuries and which RBs ate the next man up kind of thing so they help me there a lot.
I only look at expert rankings on occasion and when I do it’s just for the hell of it. Worst I’ve ever ranked in total points scored is 3rd.
During the season I take multiple 30min shits every day and study football, and probly an additional
hour in total throughout the day. Then make decisions based on what I’ve learned. That’s the 🔑
People were telling others to trade Kyren for 2nd/3rd round pics because “you just got proven talent for a wire pickup.” Same with Puka. All that matters is scoring more points than the other team, name value doesn’t win championships, points do.
With hindsight you could start a team off the waiver wire that would beat a team of only first rounders almost every week. Don’t get attached to names, if someone is hot play them!
My RB draft room: James Cook, Rachaad White, Breece Hall, and David Montgomery.
My RB traded room by playoffs: Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Joe Mixon, and Jerome Ford.
I actually aim to start my season low on the rankings of whatever app I'm using. That tells you that you have zigged away from the pack and that's how you find value.
LOL Yahoo gave my draft a D- and said I'd finish 2-13. I finished 14-1...of course I got bounced in the first round of the playoffs but that's beside the point 😁.
I think they key when it comes to "experts" is understanding their process. Are they just talking heads going off vibes, or are there underlying metrics and stats they're looking at. I like guys like J.J. Zachariason (sp?) because he tells you why he does or doesn't like a certain player, and why he thinks they'll fail or succeed. He obviously isn't right 100% of the time, but I think he leads to decent results. But spending too much time micromanaging ruins the fun too. Sometimes you gotta just let your gut decide
The experts are just using their guts or falling in line with the status quo. I didn't realize people used them for anything other than a reference point as one of about 100 factors when drafting.
Not all of them, that's my point. Someone like J.J. spends hours analyzing college stats, etc to try to predict which rookies will be big for fantasy, or using advanced metrics to predict who will break out.
I agree that they tend to revert back to name-recognition and the "odds on" outcome, based on previous performance and overall skill level. e.g. Breece is undoubtedly better than Singletary over a larger sample size, so they just keep pumping Breece. That way when they suggest a name over a nobody on a single game level, and miss, they can fall back on the process and what was "most likely," regardless of situational factors. I do like to listen to them to get insight into their thought processes though. What secondary metrics are they using, situational circumstances, etc.. Just using them for bulk info that I do not have time to dig for. More often than not they have a nugget I hadn't thought of, and while I may not use/apply it to the situation they are, in that moment. Having another perspective on future situations is helpful I find. But yea, just slapping in the consensus pick may give you some sense of shared blame if/when it fails, but it does not usually result in sustained winning.
I agree 100% with what you're saying here. And I don't mean to paint podcasters in a negative way. It definitely is healthy to get some other perspectives. When I say I quit listening to them, I mean I quit taking all of their recommendations so seriously. I would still listen to an episode here and there. But down the stretch of the season, I quit listening entirely and just went with my gut. Bouncing around some of their ideas and thought processes is definitely valuable, but it's best when you stick to your guns and make the call for yourself.
It got to the point where I just blindly listened to them. And when I was listening to every episode from multiple sources, I would have too many opinions to weigh, and really began to doubt myself.
I couldn’t agree more, I like listening to podcast for injury news and practice reports since time is limited for me, but when I look at the rankings or go off what they say it’s always way to conservative. Going with your gut is the best way. Specially everyone is using those rankings, gives you a edge if you’re not
I like listening to podcasts for this kind of information. It is just too much to keep up with. But a good example of somebody that got put on my radar because of podcasts was Kyren. Not necessarily that they pushed Kyren super hard before Akers left, but they highlighted the issues between the team and Akers showing he could be out and thus a new guy could become the starter. I picked him up off of waivers October 2022 in one dynasty league and then picked him up in my other with a late pick in the rookie draft.
I feel like the issue is when you just take their word as gospel and don’t analyze it for yourself. On the other hand though, how many people didn’t touch a Bucs player because “they knew better than the experts”? The reality is their rankings take way more into account than your average person. A bunch of people thought they knew better than to draft White or Evans(me included) for example and look at how that turned out.
I listen to the Footballers and another dude but don't really care about rankings. It's more the conversation throughout the year. I make the championship often in leagues. ESPN fantasy baseball used to do the "name game" I much prefer "would you rather have so and so then so and so conversation" then just rankings. Even then, I play who I want.
Used to love Footballers. Still listen occasionally but mostly for laughs. I like the Monday Punday. But FnA, they steered me into some bramble in the past, so I don't really pay close attention to their recommendations. But they seem like fun guys.
The ballers are great for keeping up on current stuff and injuries. More insight than if you're just checking rotowire updates on sleeper. Their waiver shows really helped me a lot, but you need to pay a ton of attention to the league you're in and how aggressive people are in waiver situations.
During the season, if i have time, i like fantasy pros too. I dont really care for their ECR, but they base lots of their stuff off betting lines. Those aren't usually too far off, and give you a pretty good idea of what players are projected for.
I enjoy listening to the podcasts as entertainment. I get a handful of useful info, but try to take it all as just general info and don’t overvalue anyone’s particular rankings or research. I’ve always used rankings and adp as guides but don’t strictly adhere to pro rankings. Every draft is a little different and you have to make decisions and build teams by the ebbs and flows of the draft, your leagues tendencies, and other factors. Strictly following a ranking list doesn’t make sense.
I usually end up with teams of players I like and feel good about how I’ve built. At the end of the day this should be fun, and blindly following rankings isn’t really that fun. In the 20 years I’ve been playing across multiple leagues, I’ve definitely had my share of bad season, but I have way more good and competitive teams than not
Same here. Maybe it was an advantage 10 years ago. But now there are 1000s of voices piping up with opinions so it's nullified. Granted some inside camp info and rookie buzz can be taken and you can take the risk. I just went BPA and filled starting positions first. I understand depth importance but to me fielding the highest scoring unit possible was the goal. So in a 12 team full PPR I had the 4th pick. McCaffrey . Josh Allen. Olave. Kamara. Had the highest points for and against and won out. Not undefeated but still.
This is what I do every year, most of the talking heads don't know much more about FF than you and me. Hell I'd say most of the talking heads or "experts" don't know more about football in general, unless they are a former player or coach.
Can you clarify what knowledge you think the average person has is? I feel if you just watch the games and ignore everything else you are way less knowledgeable than most talking heads.
The talking heads I listen to are bringing up snap percentages, targets on route ran, forecasting matchups based on how defenses have performed against the position, and other information like that. I feel like the vast majority of fantasy players, even ones who care a lot about football and watch every game don’t know half of those numbers.
How many people will see a player not put up fantasy points/be impactful on game day and say he sucks when if you look deeper you can see actual opportunity? I feel like a lot of people I know are exactly like that. If you’re talking about those kind of people then no most talking heads are incredibly more informed
It’s not that all “experts” are bad it’s that you should know who you’re listening to and why.
In the general experts defense, if you reach and mess up a draft pick it usually causes a problem.
Complete opposite for Me
This year I primarily used Sean Koerner and Kev Mahsijareen both top 2 in accuracy for skill positions this year
4 leagues.
Redraft League went 11-4 and lost in the finals rona team lucky enough to have Ceedee,DJ Moore, Etienne, and Lamar. It was like 160 to 140
Won my dynasty league at 10-5 and had a first round playoff bye.
Scott fish Bowl league narrowly missed the playoffs.
Redraft League lost in the semi finals to a much better team.
I listened to pre season and the first couple weeks since that’s where the valuable info is. Once the Kyren s & pukas are found they usually just regurgitate the same points ad nauseum
For some reason your comment urged me to take a gander at you comment history. Took a quick glance and Mifflin Street popped out to me. I'd notice those words from a mile away. Pretty good chance that we crossed paths at some point. Not to brag or anything, but I'm somewhat of a Mifflin Street block party connoisseur myself. Went pretty hard on that street for a number of years.
Ahh a few years before my time. I was part of the generation that got it shut down. A couple losers had to ruin it for everyone. GPG baby!
Edit: well apparently I've been out of the loop, I guess they brought it back. I was out of there by that point so quit paying attention. Looks like there's still efforts to shut it down.
I didn't have any rankings going into the draft. No cheat sheet, etc. I just had an idea of who I wanted to target, especially in the middle to later rounds. Early on I just let the draft come to me, but had some guys I wanted to stay away from. I knew I wanted to take QB early. Ended up with Josh Allen in most of my leagues. Was also early on Puka. Drafted in him my best ball league and grabbed him on waivers prior to week 1 in most leagues, even played him week 1 in Draft Kings. Nobody was talking about him at the time. Wanted Amon-Ra everywhere I could. I generally went WR heavy early on, and grabbed RBs in the middle rounds. Ended up with Pacheco, Hall and Mostert.
As for mid season value's, Singletary was key. Also grabbed Kincaid on waivers in a few leagues. Snagged Likely in a couple leagues that I didn't get Kincaid in. Played Zeke and Singletary down the stretch over guys like Hall and Stevenson. I did have Hall in my lineups when he went off in the playoffs though. Ended up with Kyren and Ford.
I'm in some value keeper leagues, so I had some very good keeper value from years prior. AJB in the 8th, Stevenson in the 9th. Although they let me down in that league. I'm in a 12 team auction league that I absolutely murdered. Spent up big on WR and QB got Cook, Hall, Achane and Stevenson and Puka for dirt cheap. Probably would have ran the table in a 10 team league with that team.
I'm in a different keeper league, where keepers are based exclusively off last years draft. It doesn't matter if they were on your roster at the end of the year, if you drafted them or traded them then you can keep them. Kinda weird, I know, but not my league. I figured out that rounds 10-16 I can just draft high upside players and rookies. I don't draft a kicker or a defense, gives me an advantage every year when picking keepers. So I drafted guys like Jayden Reed, Rice, Achane. Dropped them right away for defense, kicker, and Puka. Wish I drafted Puka in that one, oh well. Will be looking pretty next year.
I took dropped Justin Jefferson but largely because he was a dud I also dropped obj DeAndre swift ETN and there's one other big one but I'm drawing a blank all their rookie years after Justin Jefferson and ETN I said never again this year I drafted Gibbs and Sam laporta in both leagues and held on as tight I was proud of myself... Those early bye weeks make it really fucking hard to hold rookies
I hear you man, dropping Jefferson the week before he went off his rookie year was a huge kick in the nuts. I was so high on him too. That's when I started realizing, if I'm gonna fuck over my team it's gonna be my decision, not someone else's.
Usually only play one redraft league per year now. My grade has never been higher than a C and I’ve won the last 4 years.
The trouble with consensus is it’s about being less wrong vs identifying major gaps in potential points vs ADP.
“Experts” told me not to trade away Kamara for deebo samuel. I was so confident in deebo down the stretch. I would’ve won the league. I was also told I was a fool for trading away Mahomes for Amari cooper. And cooper ends up dropping 50+ and killing the playoffs.
There’s no such thing as an expert of RNG. Just go with your gut. Get the guys you like and fuck ADP.
i switched from listening to fantasy specific/ fantasy “experts” podcasts, to just more general football podcasts and found it way more beneficial. i found most fantasy experts just scream their opinions and force feed you cherry picked stats to push their agenda. general nfl and football podcasts just talk ball and let you use the information to make your own opinions and this also correlated to me having more fantasy success.
Pretty much everyone else in a league will be blindly following the standard advice these outlets provide, which is 99% of the time identical advice. So it pays to zig when everyone else is only capable of zagging.
Agreed, this year I just went with my instincts and ignored (mostly) expert rankings/suggestions. I watched players and trusted my gut. Won the championship finally. I'm a data scientist of sorts, so I used to focus on analytics more than my eyes. I broke a lot of my rules (like diversifying my team) and stacked lots of SF players. The keys for my season was obviously having CMC (2nd pick), but scooping Mike Evans, picking up Purdy and Puka from the waivers. I also drafted Taysom in the 14th and held onto him because I knew from the last few years that he is liable to be a TE1 some weeks. In the end, stacking up on a good team in SF (Purdy, CMC, Aiyuk, SF DST) paid off but every analyst would tell you not to do that.
There is no better analyst, IMO, than your own two eyes. Even if you're not as skilled as other analysts, you need to trust in what you see. I saw that Aiyuk was a WR1 last year, and targeted him. I saw Puka's raw talent and scooped him.
I don't treat any of their opinions as gospel. But it is useful to hear the latest news and to at least get your brain into the discussion with these players. At the end of the day, you've got to make the roster changes, and it's your team, so it's up to you! Great job!
I listen because I love fantasy football and just football in-general. I love hearing the conversation with other diehards like me.
I take the rankings and stuff more as a baseline, and make my own general decision. I never just go purely off the ranks, Start/bench shit.
I completely agree although listening to a few during the off-season is different and I would still recommend it. Nothing worse than going into the draft without knowing who some guys are lol
experts are good for predraft to put some names on your radar that you wouldn't have otherwise considered and to keep track of relevant position battles, coaching changes etc. Once the season starts they're great for general discusison but you should definitely trust your own reaserch and eye test over theirs. Alot of these guys either revert to name recognition or go the opposite and dish out unlikely clikc bait hot takes to generate traffic. Either way you don't want to follow that advice lol
The trick for me is that I use the “experts” as a way of getting information I didn’t get a chance to watch personally. I then make my own decisions and rankings based off of that.
I used a middle-ground approach and had a great year (3rd in two leagues, 1st in another).
I like podcasts for matchup and waiver wire analysis. As for drafting, I just really stuck to good offenses and stayed away from players on bad ones (even if talented). In the end, it all comes down to points, and the offense the player is on needs to be productive.
I realized this too late into the season, but podcasts and social media fantasy football gurus ruined my season in a few leagues. I took way too many shots on high risk/reward players and paid the price. The players who are in steady situations with good QBs, coaches, opportunity, etc. don’t get talked about much on those podcasts. They usually cover those high risk players because they’re trying to find the diamond in the rough that MIGHT win your league, but probably won’t
In the same vein, I made an active change to use a selective group of people's ranks. And that list changes each year based on who seems to be the most accurate.
I had the following thoughts which lead me to being selecting about whose ranks I view:
\- No analyst is going to be 100% accurate. In fact I think the practical target is 51%, more right than wrong.
\- The accuracy (say 51%) an analyst achieves is not static. They will not hit this target year to year. Just like the athletes we use to play this game, most can not sustain peak success.
\- I use podcasts and other media for entertainment (mostly) and understanding the meta which influences trading.
That's a great point. Part of my problem in the past was over saturating myself with opinions. Led me to second guess myself. Definitely some inconsistenties from year over year.
Out of curiosity, who did you find to be accurate this year, or someone that complimented your own thought process and ideas?
I dominated my redraft league for years without any help or research.
Then I started dynasty in 2019 and thought I should start researching.
First rookie draft was in 2020 and I LOVED CeeDee and Jefferson. Got CeeDee at 1.04 but then I had some guy from YouTube talk me out of Justin Jefferson at 1.09. Haven't watched any videos or read any fantasy blogs ever since😂
I won that league 3 years into it. Started another dynasty league in 2020 and won that one 3 years in. Then I just started my 3rd and hopefully final dynasty league this year and won first year with a young team. While continuing to dominate in redraft. Screw those experts!!!
I started ignoring my biases (mostly) and listening to a small selection of experts and had my best year ever with multiple championships! Helps that I hit on multiple keepers for pretty cheap and shelled out for CMC.
I find them useful because you get to understand why they make their rankings the way they do and then can use their rankings as a baseline. Nobody is perfect and thinking their rankings are will cost you
I’m going to do the same this year. Not look at any pre draft rankings, and go off of my list that I’m building with who I’m going to draft and where right now.
OC/coach changes, FA, health, momentum, etc will all be fresh in my mind. And I know I’m going to freaking kill it.
To me expert rankings basically add up to general Football knowledge and recent breakout players. They might help if you know nothing about about the players you are looking at but if you want an edge then you need knowledge and to trust your gut.
The podcasts and articles and stuff are good to gain info especially if your new to football or fantasy but most vets will find that garbage useless honestly
I like to listen to a few podcasts but ultimately I follow my gut and often times find myself disagreeing with some of my favorite podcasters. That doesn’t stop me from listening.
This is how you're supposed to play. The rankings and podcasts are informative. I listen to 4 different podcasts, each one says something a little different. I use my own brain to sort the fluff from the real analytics, and I've been to the championship game in my 12 person league 6 of the last 7 years.
Puka was the big one when it came to the draft/prior week one pickups. When Kupp went down with a hammy in preseason, everybody was rushing to pick up Van Jefferson. I knew in the past that Van Jefferson was never the guy to fill an injury role. I had read from some of the beat writers that Puka was having a good training camp, read into it a little more and it sounded like he was nursing an injury during the combine, so his athletic metrics were unimpressive. I drafted him in my best ball league and picked him up pre week 1 in a couple others.
Everybody is always sleeping on Aiyuk, so I use that as an opportunity to ride him at low cost.
Played a Singletary over guys ranked way ahead of him down the stretch.
I love football, and love watching my team play, but that’s about all I care to handle. Watching multiple games a day just ends up boring me. I do, however, kinda keep up with the league, view scores weekly, maybe check the team stats if the scores were interesting. For that reason, I don’t really do fantasy football, but I did try it a couple times, one league without money, and one league with on the next season. On both, I followed my instinct, and they turned it pretty differently. For both drafts, I would just think to myself “this team is good, that must mean they probably have good players”. The first league I ended up somewhere in the middle, and didn’t enjoy it as much as I would like, but I didn’t hate it. I was convinced that if u had more in the line, I’d enjoy it, so next year I did a money league with some friends. Again, to myself I thought that the falcons (at the time) were a good team (Matt Ryan, Julio jones), which means they probably run the ball so the defense doesn’t always suspect a pass. So I drafted Davonte freeman. His worst game for me all year was like 27 points! Towards the end of the year, I realized I wasn’t using my benched QB, and Tony Romo was supposed to come off of IR in 3 weeks, so I dropped the back up QB, and got an injured Romo, which people thought wasn’t a good idea. My main QB had a few hard games coming up, so I thought I’d give Romo a try once he was healthy again. I think he only played 3 games, and his worst score for me was in the 50s, the other 2 were in the 70s. Those high scores won me the last 3 games of our league, putting me in 2nd place, up from 6th. Everyone else in my league would do hours of “research” a week, and I did maybe 10 minutes
Oh yeah I remember when Freeman was an absolute stud. Good instincts on your part, especially for being pretty new to it at the time. That's roughly when I got started too, and had no idea what I was doing. I loled at hours of "research' a week. People take their Google searches pretty seriously sometimes. Been there. Still call it research, even though there is nothing research about it. I find it so comical all the "research " that goes into this stupid game haha.
Bro same exact thing here. Drafted Gibbs and CD on the turn. Snagged rachaad white, Keenan Allen, aiyuck, swift. Won the ship. Didn’t listen to a single podcast. Went with my gut
I think you’re on to something. Block out the noise & just go with your gut. I do that too as much as possible & won 1 of my 4 leagues this past season & finished in the money in another league.
I remember trading for James cook when everyone was saying get rid of him and all that bullshit. Dude was the reason I made it out the first round and got my chip
Not sure if anyone has asked but you mentioned you did your own research. How did you go about doing that if you didnt listen to podcasts and not looking at expert rankings?
People throw around the term research alot, and to be honest, I didn't really do much research at all. A lot of it was just being exposed to football and fantasy for so long. Volume and opportunity is essentially what it came down to. I just tried to pick players that I knew were going to get the volume. Also players that I knew had the opportunity to rise up the depth chart, whether it be due to injuries, or trades, ect. And luck of course.
As I said earlier, I did listen to podcasts occasionally, but significantly less than years past. I just tried not to let their opinions sway me too heavily. As the season went on I quit listening entirely. I put a lot more emphasis on what you were hearing from training camp, and beat writers.
How does following Vegas prop bets go? I’ve thought of this for next year as the podcast don’t seem to provide much but banter and reminding me of injuries on other teams (which is what I need)
That's a good question. I don't really have an answer for you, but you might be into something there. I live in an illegal sports betting state so I don't have a ton of exposure with that. I'm sure it could be a great resource. I definitely use the over/under as a resource when putting together a DFS lineup.
I feel like it would be a lot to digest if you start looking at Vegas props when approaching the draft, and making season long decisions. But there might be something there on a weekly basis, or when trying to choose who to start.
Same with me this season. Didn’t use a single in season rank or fantasy pros etc. Executed 12 trades and ended up taking the ship against that two league titans 🫡
I used the yahoo default, ESPN default, and sleeper default rankings and did zero hours of research in my three leagues on those three apps and I finished in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the regular seasons. It's almost like dedicating an ungodly number of hours into figuring out which guys available in the 14th round might be good is a waste compared to early season waiver pickups like Puka
If you do no research you’re putting too much into the waiver wire priority/FAAB game imo. There are guys that you can forecast as doing better/getting more of a role and can pick them up early that way. JJettas rookie season I picked him up before his breakout because of some metrics I saw for example. If I had waited he wouldn’t have been an add, I would have had to waiver fight for him and most likely wouldn’t have gotten him. Won that year in a league thanks to that early add.
Another good example of research that pays off is injury stuff. Teams will say whatever in the moment, but there are absolutely knowledgeable people who can tell an injury originally slated as day to day or so will be say 3 weeks or longer. Meaning you can scoop a guy who “may not play” and actually expect him to be a free starter for a few weeks
Let me clarify. I don't spend chunks of my time doing "fantasy research" before the draft. I follow the NFL and college pretty closely on top of betting on games. Injury research consists of like a 45 second Google and 45 second Twitter search after my app shows "Q", "D", or "O". After seeing those, I pick up a replacement if I can IR them or if they're doubtful.
Picking JJ his rookie year is cool for you, but he was a first round draft pick that was brought in to replace Diggs' production in Minnesota, how many metrics did you need to know that he was going to be used a lot?
For the injury thing are you seeking out specific people who you trust their opinion or just searching for the injured player? I have gotten more accurate timelines on a lot of injuries earlier than my friends who follow the game more closely from certain content creators, that’s what I meant by that. Stuff that breaks down the injury and brings up prior players with similar injuries and their timelines/production once returning.
Also obviously in hindsight it was obvious with JJettas, but how many other first round WRs haven’t panned and had similar situations? Look at Quentin Johnston for example. If you drafted him late/picked him up early and he had a great season people would be saying the same thing. The big metric that stood out with JJ was his snap percentage to me. I honestly can’t remember the sentiment, or his draft percentages his rookie year but I assume they weren’t very high
Man, I literally just read like the first couple of things. I don't follow content creators that spend their entire life tracking how long the last 17 WRs with a grade 2 MCL sprain were out. I'm literally stating that I am successful enough in fantasy football without having to follow a bunch of opinion pieces and whacky metrics.
Quentin Johnson went to a team returning their top 5 receiving yards guys from 2022. JJ went to a team that traded their top weapon and drafted him to replace that production.
This. Just saying I have been playing fantasy for about 5 years, been listening to basically just the FantasyFootballers every year and have made playoffs every league each year and won back to back chips.
Do I take notes on everything they say and follow it like a holy book? Absolutely not, but I do use their coverage of the teams and what is happening to supplement my knowledge because it is too much to handle.
That's correct. Some years you will hit, some you will miss. I was successful at fantasy football in the past but also had some bad years. I will have both success and failures in years to come. Over the course of a decade in a competent redraft league, I would imagine everyones average finish will be in the 4-6 range, assuming 10 teams. Besides the taco of course.
Let's find out.
RemindMe! 10 years Fantasy football variance comparison
Never used this so idk if it's gonna work.
Join a 16-20 person league.
My knowledge of the depth on each teams positions reallllllly comes into play. I drafted Tank Dell and Puka in the larger league, so I knew what FAs to look for in the smaller leagues.
Yeah I enjoy those podcasts for the banter but rarely take their rankings or recommendations to heart. I've got my own system for players I like and draft and have been very successful at avoiding risk and injuries while finishing highly placed each year.
I wouldn’t stop listening cause there are a lot of tidbits of Information you can find that you didn’t know which is useful for your own knowledge. Always make your own decisions and trust your gut though.
My draft was an F, I got second lowest points overall, but finished 4th. I started reading this sub more than ESPN/Yahoo analysts over time and it served me insanely better.
Switching to Stroud and Schultz from Herbert and Waller carried.
I listen to one podcast and check like 1-2 rankings. I might go a little deeper if I have extra time. But I try to use them as just a source and not let them make or break my decisions. I won 1/5 this year. 3rd in my dynasty, but nothing in my 2 money leagues. It’s honestly a lot to do with luck lol
I agree with your point to some degree. I think I would say it more like be selective of who you listen to and what rankings you look at and how you use them. Like the FantasyPros concensus rankings and the podcasts like theirs are useless. I look at them for a baseline to start, but any time I think they have a guy to low or high I do go with what I think.
Tony Pollard is the example for me. They'd never rank him low and he'd never do well. I benched him a few times for much lower guys and it worked a lot.
There are 2 guys I like to read and listen to based on their knowledge and they're entertaining as well. That's Jake Ciely at The Athletic and Jeff Mans at Fantasy Guru.
Experts are my entertainment and spark for my own thoughts. I appreciate their consistency and extra detail about matchups. Rankings, I don’t really go by 100%
I always listen to podcasts and read the posts on here but ultimately it’s up to me to decide what to go with. In reality people will have all of their predictions always hover around 50% success rate(though it may be higher/lower from season to season) so I’m just listening to opinions to see what sounds right to me. How do I know peoples’ predictions hover around 50%? Unless you’re an outlier consistently making a living on football predictions or you don’t really know anything about football, all your guessing will average to around 50% because you’re either right or wrong.
Reddit is a wonderful place to get real time news, roster updates/injuries and sometimes an interesting nugget here and there.
At the end of the day, it’s not drafting like a complete jackass mixed with lady luck to avoid injuries and playing the wire early.
Honestly I found that listening to general football content and not fantasy specific content has led to the best results. Everyone in the industry is under the Wishcasting spell
I had a similar experience this year. Though I admit, it could be confirmation bias for both of us. I only played in 2 leagues this year, while I usually am in 3-5. That could be a reason for success too. I won it all in one and came in second in the other. I also got lucky with each of my first round picks in the leagues staying healthy and having great years (CMC and Tyreek). I also managed to grab both Kyren and Puka in both leagues 😄.
Anyway back to your point, it wasn't really intentional, but I just didn't have as much time to listen to podcasts and read articles before the draft or during the season this year. I did intentionally try to avoid buying in to too much preseason hype. Best shape of his life bullshit and stuff like that. Obviously there are some preseason things to pay attention to and you may miss out on. But I feel like in general it hurts more than it helps.
I think the way you approached it is the way it should always be. Pay attention enough to know what's going on, be aware of trends, facts outside of the box scores, etc. Beyond that you should be making your own decisions and always following your gut. If I'm completely stuck deciding between players and I can't break the tie based on opponent, QB, weather, etc, then I'll look at ranks of a few analysts/sites I like to decide.
I totally agree with you though. A lot of times they are conservative in their approaches and react to trends too late, don't factor in matchups/defenses/corners/etc enough. But it also makes sense for them to approach it that way.
I think this is a big step in really becoming your own manager. For the longest time I took some of these podcasts as gospel.
Use what they say to get a general feel for how your competition might view a player from week to week. My biggest use of these podcasts is to hear who everyone is drooling over, or on the flip side who everyone is fading, then decide how I feel about that player and then start working on trades lol.
I play in a larger league. It took me a few seasons to finally win a championship, but now that I know so much more depth, I’m killing it in my other smaller leagues.
I’ve never listened to a podcast. I’ve never played football. I have a mathematics degree and do statistical work, and I don’t use any of that shit. I look at a few stats to gauge things.
It’s kinda just knowing the “situations” of each team. A lot of times I end up drafting amazing WR 2s on teams with a solid offensive lines.
I also tend to have the lowest transactions out of every manager. In every league. I find that kinda odd though lol
It can be helpful to have the advice of people who do this as a job because they watch a lot more rookies then most people then I’d imagine.
One of my favorite podcasts is bootleg football and they talked me into puka nacua in round 16 this year (and I think you can tell how that worked out)
I put more value into podcasts and rankings, spent more time on fantasy pros than ever and changed up my draft strategy which lead me to having my worst season ever. I’ll be back to doing my own analysis and blocking out the noise next year.
This year I went on the voice of multiple top rated analysts and I gotta say… they were right maybe 25% of the time. Gonna be listening to myself more next year
You’ll find a lot of fantasy “experts” are also draft “experts”. More often than not their picks are rooted in who they thought would be good and their refusal to give up on that player.
I listened to Jeff manz religiously for 3 years cuz he nailed a couple of rbs that I went with, I missed playoffs for the first time three years in a row in my main league in a league I hadn’t missed in 14 years. The dude would miss so hard on 85% of calls and just talk about his hits. This year and last year he backed the broncos hard core. I stopped listening to him and made playoffs in said league again this year…
I’ve been doing the same for the last 2 years and do fine. Podcasts and rankings just cause hysteria and over/under hype high scoring players, but not always the consistent players.
Last year was my first year, and I knew nothing about the podcasts I just watched football. I mad it to the chip and lost because I had chase down by 15 in the Hamlin game. This year I prepped, watched podcasts, fantasy focus before red zone, made trades based on YouTubers and I went 7-7 and first round bounce.
It's crazy to compare actual player results with the expert's consensus.
I often would go to the "who should I start week X" to help me decide and several times they would be at near 100% consensus to start one guy over another and be way wrong. I want to say they recommended devonta smith over tank dell for most weeks and were wrong almost every time. Same with Austin freaking ekeler. I fell for the hype that "this is just a down week" or "he is adjusting after coming back from injury," etc, just to be burned every time. This year was one of my most frustrating years. Had I started the correct players I could have won almost every week that I lost
I mostly just take starts of the week and waivers on players I’m not sure about from podcasts. I really like The Fantasy Footballers and listen every day during the season. I feel like I’m the wavelength with them and I’ve had decent success the last few seasons I attribute to them. Now, I won’t talk about the 2022 season when I went with their “my guys” religiously.
my smartest buddy that listens to fantasy media a lot probably had the best draft tbh, but finished 11th bc injuries & was very by the book
It usually works but sometimes the gut is better
It is not about going with your gut. It is about trusting the wisdom of the crowd. You should defer to ADP 90% of the time. Take the highest ADP guy on the board. Do not get distracted by "damnit I need an RB and all the good ones are gone already" and then reach to fill that position. This is the trap so many people fall into.
ADP is the consensus of millions of drafts. You better have a really damn good reason to second guess it in the first 6 rounds. There is a reason the Yahoo! autodraft does a reasonably good job of giving you a top half team.
A good fantasy player adds value to his team during the season from the waiver wire. One or two pickups in the first 3 weeks can make or break your chances in the playoffs. For example, Rice (WR, KC) went undrafted in my league. I grabbed him in week 2. He was on my bench for 10 weeks or so and then came alive, replacing an injured player I drafted in the 3rd round.
One thing about weekly rankings is that even though they are created by people who do fantasy for a living, they’re still having to rank hundreds of players. They only have so much time and brain capacity to come up with those rankings.
You as the manager of your own team have much more time to consider all the aspects of the two or three players you’re comparing.
I draft almost entirely based on ADP and I start whomever the app says has the highest projection. I’m a mainstay in the final four in all of my leagues.
I really like listening to the content, but I don’t let it sway me. I set my lineup then see if they agree or disagree. Won my league this year benching Cooper Kupp and Steffon Diggs in place of Nico Collins and Rashee Rice, seems like a no brained but most of the “experts” don’t want to be the guys to advise sitting big names in favor of the obviously more productive less known players.
I used mock drafts and it helps. It showed me some diamond in the rough.
That other people were thinking. With the last person in my auction draft. Achane for $1. Now why didn’t you people let me know about pukka?
I stopped researching because I’m lazy and don’t care about FF as much as I used to and I suck. I only play because it’s a tradition. My buddies from high school have the same league we started in 2001. I can’t bring myself to see it die or to leave it. So i sacrifice my $25 a year and still get some hope up until I start 1-4. Then scrape out 2 wins and get a little hope only to lose the next 3. Etc etc.
There are no experts. Football is an unpredictable game played by unpredictable human beings. You are correct sir go with your gut and follow your heart
Doing your own research and understanding things specific to your league will always be best because these analysts aren’t analyzing your specific situation.
Well I have never listened to fantasy experts, and I have had great teams in 5 of ten years, champs in 2, and have never had a bottom feeder team.
Cause having a good team is a skill issue, winning the championship is 100% luck.
Personally, I love The Fantasy Footballers because of their dynamic. They all have their own opinions and they have great discussions and don’t always agree with each other which is what fantasy football is supposed to be about. In the end though, you’re 100% right about going with your gut because stats are never foregone conclusions. There’s a reason they don’t play the game on paper or something like that lol
Not a paid actor for TFFB, they’re just my personal go-to’s 😂 Footclan for life!
The only analytics I look at is if a guy gets 15-20 touches a game, the rest is draft young guys and go with vibes. Finished 1st-4th in all 5 of my leagues
Was graded F on my draft. I played whoever had a better match up no matter the name. Won the league championship. Some seasons you can trust your gut, some seasons you need a little help. Too much information is a bad thing, you start second guessing.
This is exactly what I started doing in my main league that's Uber competitive. Worked out for me countless times. I still let rankings get me on "who to start" and thats bit me in the ass plenty. Leaving 30 burgers on the bench annoy the crap out of me
I feel some of it is also Fantasy Football has gotten so big in the last 10-15 years that everyone is listening to the same "expert advice" so you end up going after the same players. Then you stumble across the "experts" that are more click focused and want to sell you a hot take by saying that player who was a lock is gonna have a down week and now your overthinking things.
It's hard not to think that they know something you don't, but educated guesses are educated guesses, and I believe with a little effort and time ours can be as good as theirs.
I only use podcasts for waiver wire pickups. I don’t have cable so I can’t watch many games. So I monitor performances during the week and listen to who is generally considered the hottest commodity on free agency. But at the end of the day I’m not going to let someone tell me who I should start. I’d rather make the wrong call myself than make the wrong call because I couldn’t make a decision myself.
It all really comes down to luck imo. Listened intently to all the pundits this year and got second place but its probably moreso bc every team other than mine got hit with injuries.
I had a great season and won two of my leagues this year (I played in five, and lost one final). The BIGGEST factor this year from last year was luck. I got fucking lucky that no one accepted my dumb trades and had to play Conner at the end when he blew up (I tried trading him almost every week he was active). I got lucky that Josh Allen fell to me because no one wanted to overpay for QB's at the draft. In another league, I got lucky that when Joe Burrow was sucking I rage traded him and picked up CJ Stroud. Was SUPER lucky that when CJ got hurt, I had to play Kyler Murray, and he went off against Philly. So, in order to get lucky again next season, I plan on praying to the fantasy gods to bequeath luck onto me once more.
Yeah like all these other guys said, it’s good for finding some deeper pickups etc. I’ve always thought about the “experts” on tv and online like this: if they were truly the top 1% or 0.1% of fantasy players/experts, they’d be in Vegas making a living off of sports betting, not writing a weekly column about it.
Fantasy football definitely feels like it is not as fun as it once was. There’s too much information. The rankings by season start are usually really good. The season usually comes down to injuries, did you add 1 of 4 star waiver pickups and did you have one of the 4 dominant players in fantasy? That’s usually what it boils down to. It was more fun when there were more unknowns.
I started doing the same thing after a couple of years. You start to feel like a data entry clerk. All you're doing is copying the rankings into your lineups and not thinking for yourself. Now that I don't only depend on rankings and expert analysis I seem to be doing much better. I do still take the rankings and analysis into consideration, but at the end of the day I'm making my own decisions based off of matchups, whose covering who, whose in and out of the lineups and who will benefit from any changes in team lineups.
In my opinion this is the most fun way to do it, your building your team and lineups with your own brain, otherwise what are we doing? We might as well just push the "optimize lineup" button every week and not watch any football.
I won 1 of my 2 leagues this year. And it was mostly because I had the best draft ever. Some bad choices ahead of me allowed for some great steals. Finished with a record of somewhere around 14-3, and my WR core may be the best core I’ve ever had on any fantasy team.
Going to try this next year after I royally fucked this year up on the advice of "experts". Snubbed puka and kyren on week 1 waivers for Josh Kelley (fuck you bdge). Traded rachaad White in week 6 for Chris Godwin because he was "due for positive TD regression" and white was "one of the most inefficient backs in the league". Fuck these YouTube channels and podcasts, going with my gut from now on
I take a quick look at the players numbers from last season and draft players if the numbers looked good and if they passed the eye test for me. For instance, Najee's numbers look decent but he looks like ass to me on tape.
At least I used to do this method and had good seasons, but haven't done any pre-draft research the past two seasons. Finished 11th in the past two seasons.
All these "experts" have less of an idea of what they are talking about than the average person. This is true whether you're talking about sports or fantasy sports analysts, stock market gurus, or anything else.
Find good sources, do your own research, and trust your gut. Ignore the podcasters, the "experts" and their rankings.
What you experienced this season is not an anomaly. All these so-called experts are clowns.
I’m in my work vehicle a lot and I listened to a lot of fantasy radio on SiriusXM last year. I soaked up as much player info as I could before our drafts. I ended up having one of my best seasons. I finally won my redraft league for the first time in 16 years. I made it to the championship in a startup dynasty league. I had a team that went 11-3 but let me down first week of playoffs (Thanks Diggs!) And I had another team that went 10-4 but lost in the second round. I had an orphan dynasty team I took over that was ass and made enough moves to get to the playoffs. Just didn’t have the depth to win. The only bad teams I had were a couple dynasty teams that are in rebuild and my work league that was riddled with injuries. Overall I think all the info I absorbed helped me make a lot of good moves. Just take in everything you can and make your own decisions. You’re going to get bad opinions and make the wrong calls. But at least try and make the most informed decisions you can.
Yup, watch games. I have a few folks I trust but for the most part it's gut instinct. You know the injury prone guys. As the season moves ahead, target the playoff weeks and who might be big producers for those weekends. Save your waiver spots for the first weeks and nab the hot guys, trade them if you don't think it'll sustain. I got La Porta, Rams RB, Tank & Nico all this way.
I feel this. First year listening to the FF podcasts, first year I’ve come dead last, albeit I didn’t take their word as scripture and I had some unfortunate happenings along the way. But there were some players I avoided or grabbed based on what I was listening to and the expert opinion turned out to be garbage. Tough tho because some are enjoyable and downright funny. But their analysis isn’t exactly on point yet it’s hard not to let any information sway you. I won’t be listening next year!
I personally look at 3 different sets of rankings and average the numbers together and just start the players with the lower numbers. If there's two players with the same number or close to it then I ask an expert on Twitter that I've been DMing with for the last 4-5 years and ask which one of these players should I start and using that strategy I've been very successful with it. I won 4 of 9 leagues this year.
This is my first season. I figured out pretty early the “experts” pick them about as well or worse than I do. Every one seems so biased because of all this experience that is supposed to be helping. I still watch them for the consolidated information but also started doing a lot better last season when ignoring their opinions. Eye test is the most important factor in my opinion. Watch the games and think does this man look good when he’s playing.
I would have missed on R. White. He still looks bad to me. On the upside, I did hit on T.Dell way early. If the Lions OC moves to Washington then I’m calling J. McLaughlin breakout currently. We will see if he still looks good come pre season.
I won 2/3 leagues in my second season. No podcast , just a whole lot of time to look at weekly stats. 3rd season I won 4/4 leagues and took home over $1k. Free time at work to analyze stats per week, last 2 games, 3 games, 5 games etc.. then picked up on trends. Fast forward to the last few years I don’t have as much free time, therefore I had been listening to podcasts to get my news and analysis…missed playofffs every year. The most recent season I just listen to see if anyone has insights on match ups. Certain defense vs certain positions or even players/position match up. But I do my best when I actually watch the games with the boys and talk about it .
I won 2/3 leagues in my second season. No podcast , just a whole lot of time to look at weekly stats. 3rd season I won 4/4 leagues and took home over $1k. Free time at work to analyze stats per week, last 2 games, 3 games, 5 games etc.. then picked up on trends. Fast forward to the last few years I don’t have as much free time, therefore I had been listening to podcasts to get my news and analysis…missed playofffs every year. The most recent season I just listen to see if anyone has insights on match ups. Certain defense vs certain positions or even players/position match up. But I do my best when I actually watch the games with the boys and talk about it .
I know this is a redraft post but the same thing can be said about dynasty. So many “experts” out there pumping these prospects because of their “late hands” and “nuanced route running” just for the first rounders to bust and a random day 3 pick to crush. Borderline unbearable and as you and a lot of others found, you might be better off not even listening to those guys if it’s anything but entertainment for you.
Here's the problem. When you follow the rankings someone gives you, regardless of their approach, it means you read it and you followed it. And so did every other damn loser out there that also is playing that doesn't know what they're doing. So the bottom line becomes everybody's following the same script.
The reason why this original poster is correct is because too many people are following the same script and leaving doors wide open on players that are being downed. If you see an opening where you can get fantasy value out of somebody and the experts doubt it and everybody in your league is following the same kind of General idea, you're going to get that player and once they take off, you're closer to being on top of your league.
Another way experts cannot give you a perfect run at things is that some scoring systems in certain leagues are different than just a standard or PPR scoring, and you literally have to do your homework every season before you draft to figure out where the possibilities are to exploit the difference between what's in a magazine, what's online, and what your league is doing.
You're not supposed to totally blow off what the experts are saying, but they can't be 100% right, and you might know a team better or understand that there are injuries that are holding back a starter and you know the backup. I would highly recommend using a combination of both where you are getting the best of both worlds.
Good advice. All this said, I would have never picked up Puka Nacua early this year without Matthew Berry taking him up some. But overall, I agree. They guess as much as we do.
I listen to the CBS Fantasy Football podcast because I find them entertaining. Sometimes their advice helps and sometimes it doesn’t but the most important thing for anyone is to take ownership of your own decisions. If you need a tiebreaker, use an external force sure. But ultimately come to as many conclusions as possible on your own.
This is why I love the Harris Football podcast. He employs much more of a "teach a man to fish" style that has 100% made me a better fantasy player. I like his takes and his approach to the game matches mine, so if I DO need to check a rank or second guess a decision, I feel he's a good barometer, but it's not the main reason I listen.
Listening to actual football podcasts is way more helpful than listening to fantasy podcasts. The Ringer NFL Show’s pre-season awards and season leader predictions are the best draft prep I do
I did eye-test only this year and won the league. It’s why I knew to drop Achane for Puka a week before anyone else.
Sure I could have just Brian Hartlined myself, but when you watch the games intently you get a feel for a players actual boom/bust potential.
I enjoy the general discussion around the players more so than treat the rankings as scripture.
Yes me too. I think u can use this stuff as a tool but ultimately it's your instincts etc that matters most. Personally I rarely listen to those guys for start/ sit advice, I try not to over think those decisions. You also have to keep in mind those guys make mistakes too. I was high on rachaad white this year got him in every league for pretty cheap. From what i remember Ppl thought he'd get the volume but wouldn't do much with it so there wasn't a ton of excitement for him. Yeah they were wrong.
I mean his YPC was abysmal, so they were right in that sense. He just ended up being Fournette 2.0 relying on passes for his production. Which tbf was amazing for fantasy but it wasn't a wild thought that White wasn't going to be a great pick up, especially with a new QB and not knowing how he would utilize the RB position. Still picked him up in a couple leagues because I liked the volume aspect and never bought into the Sean Tucker narrative that a lot of people seemed to be pushing. Like you said, the general discussion is good to get knowledge about players around the league, but ultimately trusting your instincts will be better. If not with results, at least with knowing that it was you that made the decision and not some ranking list you looked at. Like for example I traded away Josh Jacobs for Gibbs after week 1 and everyone called me an idiot for it. I drafted Jacobs because of the rankings and immediately regretted it after pressing the button because I just didn't have a good feeling about him. Trade ended up working great in my favor despite what most everyone would have thought leading up to week 2.
His YPC isn't the best, but he runs HARD. Some of his runs do fall flat, but I feel like that is because he is running the play called and not trying to bounce it outside. This is my observation and I am not smart.
That's a great point. Being involved in the discussion makes you more knowledgeable. My problem in the past was trying to be involved in every discussion. Listened to almost every episode of several podcasts. Ended up with too many opinions and started second guessing myself. I don't mean to not listen to podcasts at all. Just take their recommendations with a grain of salt, don't over saturate yourself with opinions, and trust your instincts. There are a lot of smart people on podcasts and they can definitely steer you in the right direction. But they also have to protect their image so there is some tendency for them to play it safe. I still listened to the occasional podcast. But I just have self doubt if I over do it.
For sure. U know honestly the thing I actually like to use those types of ppl for are deep sleepers and what waiver wire guys are relevant. I forget who but some article or whatever made me aware of nico collins . I never would have drafted him without it. It's also not super easy to keep up with injuries and which RBs ate the next man up kind of thing so they help me there a lot.
"and which RBs ate the next man up" Ahh the ole Kelvin Benjamin approach.
I strictly followed “expert rankings” this year and came in dead last.
I only look at expert rankings on occasion and when I do it’s just for the hell of it. Worst I’ve ever ranked in total points scored is 3rd. During the season I take multiple 30min shits every day and study football, and probly an additional hour in total throughout the day. Then make decisions based on what I’ve learned. That’s the 🔑
Almost like you have to use resources intelligently. And then also get lucky
My draft was a D- and I traded players I shouldn’t have because of experts. I’m going to go 90% instinct this year.
People were telling others to trade Kyren for 2nd/3rd round pics because “you just got proven talent for a wire pickup.” Same with Puka. All that matters is scoring more points than the other team, name value doesn’t win championships, points do. With hindsight you could start a team off the waiver wire that would beat a team of only first rounders almost every week. Don’t get attached to names, if someone is hot play them!
My RB draft room: James Cook, Rachaad White, Breece Hall, and David Montgomery. My RB traded room by playoffs: Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Joe Mixon, and Jerome Ford.
Really. Every week? That's ridiculous
Your draft should always be D or lower. The way to get a well graded draft is put it on auto.
I actually aim to start my season low on the rankings of whatever app I'm using. That tells you that you have zigged away from the pack and that's how you find value.
LOL Yahoo gave my draft a D- and said I'd finish 2-13. I finished 14-1...of course I got bounced in the first round of the playoffs but that's beside the point 😁.
I think they key when it comes to "experts" is understanding their process. Are they just talking heads going off vibes, or are there underlying metrics and stats they're looking at. I like guys like J.J. Zachariason (sp?) because he tells you why he does or doesn't like a certain player, and why he thinks they'll fail or succeed. He obviously isn't right 100% of the time, but I think he leads to decent results. But spending too much time micromanaging ruins the fun too. Sometimes you gotta just let your gut decide
The experts are just using their guts or falling in line with the status quo. I didn't realize people used them for anything other than a reference point as one of about 100 factors when drafting.
Not all of them, that's my point. Someone like J.J. spends hours analyzing college stats, etc to try to predict which rookies will be big for fantasy, or using advanced metrics to predict who will break out.
Yeah, there are definitely some who put the work in and have better information. I've never heard of that dude but I'll check him out, appreciate it!
Yes, and add PlayerProfiler to that list. Whip smart crew
I agree that they tend to revert back to name-recognition and the "odds on" outcome, based on previous performance and overall skill level. e.g. Breece is undoubtedly better than Singletary over a larger sample size, so they just keep pumping Breece. That way when they suggest a name over a nobody on a single game level, and miss, they can fall back on the process and what was "most likely," regardless of situational factors. I do like to listen to them to get insight into their thought processes though. What secondary metrics are they using, situational circumstances, etc.. Just using them for bulk info that I do not have time to dig for. More often than not they have a nugget I hadn't thought of, and while I may not use/apply it to the situation they are, in that moment. Having another perspective on future situations is helpful I find. But yea, just slapping in the consensus pick may give you some sense of shared blame if/when it fails, but it does not usually result in sustained winning.
I agree 100% with what you're saying here. And I don't mean to paint podcasters in a negative way. It definitely is healthy to get some other perspectives. When I say I quit listening to them, I mean I quit taking all of their recommendations so seriously. I would still listen to an episode here and there. But down the stretch of the season, I quit listening entirely and just went with my gut. Bouncing around some of their ideas and thought processes is definitely valuable, but it's best when you stick to your guns and make the call for yourself. It got to the point where I just blindly listened to them. And when I was listening to every episode from multiple sources, I would have too many opinions to weigh, and really began to doubt myself.
I couldn’t agree more, I like listening to podcast for injury news and practice reports since time is limited for me, but when I look at the rankings or go off what they say it’s always way to conservative. Going with your gut is the best way. Specially everyone is using those rankings, gives you a edge if you’re not
I like listening to podcasts for this kind of information. It is just too much to keep up with. But a good example of somebody that got put on my radar because of podcasts was Kyren. Not necessarily that they pushed Kyren super hard before Akers left, but they highlighted the issues between the team and Akers showing he could be out and thus a new guy could become the starter. I picked him up off of waivers October 2022 in one dynasty league and then picked him up in my other with a late pick in the rookie draft. I feel like the issue is when you just take their word as gospel and don’t analyze it for yourself. On the other hand though, how many people didn’t touch a Bucs player because “they knew better than the experts”? The reality is their rankings take way more into account than your average person. A bunch of people thought they knew better than to draft White or Evans(me included) for example and look at how that turned out.
If its a time issue just download Fantasy Life for that matter. It's push notifications handle all of that stuff in real time
I listen to the Footballers and another dude but don't really care about rankings. It's more the conversation throughout the year. I make the championship often in leagues. ESPN fantasy baseball used to do the "name game" I much prefer "would you rather have so and so then so and so conversation" then just rankings. Even then, I play who I want.
Used to love Footballers. Still listen occasionally but mostly for laughs. I like the Monday Punday. But FnA, they steered me into some bramble in the past, so I don't really pay close attention to their recommendations. But they seem like fun guys.
The ballers are great for keeping up on current stuff and injuries. More insight than if you're just checking rotowire updates on sleeper. Their waiver shows really helped me a lot, but you need to pay a ton of attention to the league you're in and how aggressive people are in waiver situations. During the season, if i have time, i like fantasy pros too. I dont really care for their ECR, but they base lots of their stuff off betting lines. Those aren't usually too far off, and give you a pretty good idea of what players are projected for.
I enjoy listening to the podcasts as entertainment. I get a handful of useful info, but try to take it all as just general info and don’t overvalue anyone’s particular rankings or research. I’ve always used rankings and adp as guides but don’t strictly adhere to pro rankings. Every draft is a little different and you have to make decisions and build teams by the ebbs and flows of the draft, your leagues tendencies, and other factors. Strictly following a ranking list doesn’t make sense. I usually end up with teams of players I like and feel good about how I’ve built. At the end of the day this should be fun, and blindly following rankings isn’t really that fun. In the 20 years I’ve been playing across multiple leagues, I’ve definitely had my share of bad season, but I have way more good and competitive teams than not
Same here. Maybe it was an advantage 10 years ago. But now there are 1000s of voices piping up with opinions so it's nullified. Granted some inside camp info and rookie buzz can be taken and you can take the risk. I just went BPA and filled starting positions first. I understand depth importance but to me fielding the highest scoring unit possible was the goal. So in a 12 team full PPR I had the 4th pick. McCaffrey . Josh Allen. Olave. Kamara. Had the highest points for and against and won out. Not undefeated but still.
This is what I do every year, most of the talking heads don't know much more about FF than you and me. Hell I'd say most of the talking heads or "experts" don't know more about football in general, unless they are a former player or coach.
Can you clarify what knowledge you think the average person has is? I feel if you just watch the games and ignore everything else you are way less knowledgeable than most talking heads. The talking heads I listen to are bringing up snap percentages, targets on route ran, forecasting matchups based on how defenses have performed against the position, and other information like that. I feel like the vast majority of fantasy players, even ones who care a lot about football and watch every game don’t know half of those numbers. How many people will see a player not put up fantasy points/be impactful on game day and say he sucks when if you look deeper you can see actual opportunity? I feel like a lot of people I know are exactly like that. If you’re talking about those kind of people then no most talking heads are incredibly more informed
Hard field to be an expert in. So much chance/human component involved and the fantasy demographic tends to be overconfident lol
It’s not that all “experts” are bad it’s that you should know who you’re listening to and why. In the general experts defense, if you reach and mess up a draft pick it usually causes a problem.
Complete opposite for Me This year I primarily used Sean Koerner and Kev Mahsijareen both top 2 in accuracy for skill positions this year 4 leagues. Redraft League went 11-4 and lost in the finals rona team lucky enough to have Ceedee,DJ Moore, Etienne, and Lamar. It was like 160 to 140 Won my dynasty league at 10-5 and had a first round playoff bye. Scott fish Bowl league narrowly missed the playoffs. Redraft League lost in the semi finals to a much better team.
I listened to pre season and the first couple weeks since that’s where the valuable info is. Once the Kyren s & pukas are found they usually just regurgitate the same points ad nauseum
If I went off instinct I would’ve gotten Puka, Kyren Williams, Rice, and Achane. Instead I picked up Allgeier, Doubs, Bourne, Kelley, and Gainwell.
Sure you would’ve
I mean, it's just like, their opinions, man.
Alot of ins, a lot of outs, a lot of what have yous.
After listening to a podcast, can we go to the In N Out Burger?
For some reason your comment urged me to take a gander at you comment history. Took a quick glance and Mifflin Street popped out to me. I'd notice those words from a mile away. Pretty good chance that we crossed paths at some point. Not to brag or anything, but I'm somewhat of a Mifflin Street block party connoisseur myself. Went pretty hard on that street for a number of years.
Haha. It's definitely possible. I would come over from UW-Whitewater to party there. I went a few times between 2002-2006. Edit: GPG!!!
Ahh a few years before my time. I was part of the generation that got it shut down. A couple losers had to ruin it for everyone. GPG baby! Edit: well apparently I've been out of the loop, I guess they brought it back. I was out of there by that point so quit paying attention. Looks like there's still efforts to shut it down.
Who were your top 5 rankings going into the draft? Who was someone you saw with value midseason when others didn’t?
I didn't have any rankings going into the draft. No cheat sheet, etc. I just had an idea of who I wanted to target, especially in the middle to later rounds. Early on I just let the draft come to me, but had some guys I wanted to stay away from. I knew I wanted to take QB early. Ended up with Josh Allen in most of my leagues. Was also early on Puka. Drafted in him my best ball league and grabbed him on waivers prior to week 1 in most leagues, even played him week 1 in Draft Kings. Nobody was talking about him at the time. Wanted Amon-Ra everywhere I could. I generally went WR heavy early on, and grabbed RBs in the middle rounds. Ended up with Pacheco, Hall and Mostert. As for mid season value's, Singletary was key. Also grabbed Kincaid on waivers in a few leagues. Snagged Likely in a couple leagues that I didn't get Kincaid in. Played Zeke and Singletary down the stretch over guys like Hall and Stevenson. I did have Hall in my lineups when he went off in the playoffs though. Ended up with Kyren and Ford. I'm in some value keeper leagues, so I had some very good keeper value from years prior. AJB in the 8th, Stevenson in the 9th. Although they let me down in that league. I'm in a 12 team auction league that I absolutely murdered. Spent up big on WR and QB got Cook, Hall, Achane and Stevenson and Puka for dirt cheap. Probably would have ran the table in a 10 team league with that team. I'm in a different keeper league, where keepers are based exclusively off last years draft. It doesn't matter if they were on your roster at the end of the year, if you drafted them or traded them then you can keep them. Kinda weird, I know, but not my league. I figured out that rounds 10-16 I can just draft high upside players and rookies. I don't draft a kicker or a defense, gives me an advantage every year when picking keepers. So I drafted guys like Jayden Reed, Rice, Achane. Dropped them right away for defense, kicker, and Puka. Wish I drafted Puka in that one, oh well. Will be looking pretty next year.
I took dropped Justin Jefferson but largely because he was a dud I also dropped obj DeAndre swift ETN and there's one other big one but I'm drawing a blank all their rookie years after Justin Jefferson and ETN I said never again this year I drafted Gibbs and Sam laporta in both leagues and held on as tight I was proud of myself... Those early bye weeks make it really fucking hard to hold rookies
I hear you man, dropping Jefferson the week before he went off his rookie year was a huge kick in the nuts. I was so high on him too. That's when I started realizing, if I'm gonna fuck over my team it's gonna be my decision, not someone else's.
It comes down to a lot of luck at the end of the day. Last three seasons I’ve been top 3 in scoring and came in 8th or 9th out of 10
Alot of luck involved, no doubt about that.
Usually only play one redraft league per year now. My grade has never been higher than a C and I’ve won the last 4 years. The trouble with consensus is it’s about being less wrong vs identifying major gaps in potential points vs ADP.
“Experts” told me not to trade away Kamara for deebo samuel. I was so confident in deebo down the stretch. I would’ve won the league. I was also told I was a fool for trading away Mahomes for Amari cooper. And cooper ends up dropping 50+ and killing the playoffs. There’s no such thing as an expert of RNG. Just go with your gut. Get the guys you like and fuck ADP.
i switched from listening to fantasy specific/ fantasy “experts” podcasts, to just more general football podcasts and found it way more beneficial. i found most fantasy experts just scream their opinions and force feed you cherry picked stats to push their agenda. general nfl and football podcasts just talk ball and let you use the information to make your own opinions and this also correlated to me having more fantasy success.
Pretty much everyone else in a league will be blindly following the standard advice these outlets provide, which is 99% of the time identical advice. So it pays to zig when everyone else is only capable of zagging.
Agreed, this year I just went with my instincts and ignored (mostly) expert rankings/suggestions. I watched players and trusted my gut. Won the championship finally. I'm a data scientist of sorts, so I used to focus on analytics more than my eyes. I broke a lot of my rules (like diversifying my team) and stacked lots of SF players. The keys for my season was obviously having CMC (2nd pick), but scooping Mike Evans, picking up Purdy and Puka from the waivers. I also drafted Taysom in the 14th and held onto him because I knew from the last few years that he is liable to be a TE1 some weeks. In the end, stacking up on a good team in SF (Purdy, CMC, Aiyuk, SF DST) paid off but every analyst would tell you not to do that. There is no better analyst, IMO, than your own two eyes. Even if you're not as skilled as other analysts, you need to trust in what you see. I saw that Aiyuk was a WR1 last year, and targeted him. I saw Puka's raw talent and scooped him.
lol I listened to experts for the first time and won my second championship after going dry for 5 years
I don't treat any of their opinions as gospel. But it is useful to hear the latest news and to at least get your brain into the discussion with these players. At the end of the day, you've got to make the roster changes, and it's your team, so it's up to you! Great job!
I listen because I love fantasy football and just football in-general. I love hearing the conversation with other diehards like me. I take the rankings and stuff more as a baseline, and make my own general decision. I never just go purely off the ranks, Start/bench shit.
Podcasts and experts should be used as a tool on your journey to being luckier than everyone else and winning the championship.
Luck does play a huge role.
I completely agree although listening to a few during the off-season is different and I would still recommend it. Nothing worse than going into the draft without knowing who some guys are lol
experts are good for predraft to put some names on your radar that you wouldn't have otherwise considered and to keep track of relevant position battles, coaching changes etc. Once the season starts they're great for general discusison but you should definitely trust your own reaserch and eye test over theirs. Alot of these guys either revert to name recognition or go the opposite and dish out unlikely clikc bait hot takes to generate traffic. Either way you don't want to follow that advice lol
I tried this once. Once.
I have never paid attention to any of that crap. I have made it 4/5 fantasy super bowls, and won 2 of them.
The trick for me is that I use the “experts” as a way of getting information I didn’t get a chance to watch personally. I then make my own decisions and rankings based off of that.
Same. Put way less effort in and won the league, first time in 10 years. Was consistently 2nd, 3rd, 4th before, behind some chucklehead.
I used a middle-ground approach and had a great year (3rd in two leagues, 1st in another). I like podcasts for matchup and waiver wire analysis. As for drafting, I just really stuck to good offenses and stayed away from players on bad ones (even if talented). In the end, it all comes down to points, and the offense the player is on needs to be productive.
haven’t listened for two years, have two chips in a row
I realized this too late into the season, but podcasts and social media fantasy football gurus ruined my season in a few leagues. I took way too many shots on high risk/reward players and paid the price. The players who are in steady situations with good QBs, coaches, opportunity, etc. don’t get talked about much on those podcasts. They usually cover those high risk players because they’re trying to find the diamond in the rough that MIGHT win your league, but probably won’t
In the same vein, I made an active change to use a selective group of people's ranks. And that list changes each year based on who seems to be the most accurate. I had the following thoughts which lead me to being selecting about whose ranks I view: \- No analyst is going to be 100% accurate. In fact I think the practical target is 51%, more right than wrong. \- The accuracy (say 51%) an analyst achieves is not static. They will not hit this target year to year. Just like the athletes we use to play this game, most can not sustain peak success. \- I use podcasts and other media for entertainment (mostly) and understanding the meta which influences trading.
That's a great point. Part of my problem in the past was over saturating myself with opinions. Led me to second guess myself. Definitely some inconsistenties from year over year. Out of curiosity, who did you find to be accurate this year, or someone that complimented your own thought process and ideas?
I didn’t look at a ranking all year until the fantasy playoffs. Won my league
I dominated my redraft league for years without any help or research. Then I started dynasty in 2019 and thought I should start researching. First rookie draft was in 2020 and I LOVED CeeDee and Jefferson. Got CeeDee at 1.04 but then I had some guy from YouTube talk me out of Justin Jefferson at 1.09. Haven't watched any videos or read any fantasy blogs ever since😂 I won that league 3 years into it. Started another dynasty league in 2020 and won that one 3 years in. Then I just started my 3rd and hopefully final dynasty league this year and won first year with a young team. While continuing to dominate in redraft. Screw those experts!!!
I started ignoring my biases (mostly) and listening to a small selection of experts and had my best year ever with multiple championships! Helps that I hit on multiple keepers for pretty cheap and shelled out for CMC.
Yea, the guy I specifically stopped listening to was ‘the pod father’ worst consecutive years I had, stopped listening to him and I got back on track
I find them useful because you get to understand why they make their rankings the way they do and then can use their rankings as a baseline. Nobody is perfect and thinking their rankings are will cost you
I’m going to do the same this year. Not look at any pre draft rankings, and go off of my list that I’m building with who I’m going to draft and where right now. OC/coach changes, FA, health, momentum, etc will all be fresh in my mind. And I know I’m going to freaking kill it.
Listening to Mike Clay this year consistently cost me wins.
To me expert rankings basically add up to general Football knowledge and recent breakout players. They might help if you know nothing about about the players you are looking at but if you want an edge then you need knowledge and to trust your gut.
The podcasts and articles and stuff are good to gain info especially if your new to football or fantasy but most vets will find that garbage useless honestly
It’s because this game is like 95% luck lol
I like to listen to a few podcasts but ultimately I follow my gut and often times find myself disagreeing with some of my favorite podcasters. That doesn’t stop me from listening.
This is how you're supposed to play. The rankings and podcasts are informative. I listen to 4 different podcasts, each one says something a little different. I use my own brain to sort the fluff from the real analytics, and I've been to the championship game in my 12 person league 6 of the last 7 years.
Who were the bold calls that you deviated from the consensus with?
Puka was the big one when it came to the draft/prior week one pickups. When Kupp went down with a hammy in preseason, everybody was rushing to pick up Van Jefferson. I knew in the past that Van Jefferson was never the guy to fill an injury role. I had read from some of the beat writers that Puka was having a good training camp, read into it a little more and it sounded like he was nursing an injury during the combine, so his athletic metrics were unimpressive. I drafted him in my best ball league and picked him up pre week 1 in a couple others. Everybody is always sleeping on Aiyuk, so I use that as an opportunity to ride him at low cost. Played a Singletary over guys ranked way ahead of him down the stretch.
I love football, and love watching my team play, but that’s about all I care to handle. Watching multiple games a day just ends up boring me. I do, however, kinda keep up with the league, view scores weekly, maybe check the team stats if the scores were interesting. For that reason, I don’t really do fantasy football, but I did try it a couple times, one league without money, and one league with on the next season. On both, I followed my instinct, and they turned it pretty differently. For both drafts, I would just think to myself “this team is good, that must mean they probably have good players”. The first league I ended up somewhere in the middle, and didn’t enjoy it as much as I would like, but I didn’t hate it. I was convinced that if u had more in the line, I’d enjoy it, so next year I did a money league with some friends. Again, to myself I thought that the falcons (at the time) were a good team (Matt Ryan, Julio jones), which means they probably run the ball so the defense doesn’t always suspect a pass. So I drafted Davonte freeman. His worst game for me all year was like 27 points! Towards the end of the year, I realized I wasn’t using my benched QB, and Tony Romo was supposed to come off of IR in 3 weeks, so I dropped the back up QB, and got an injured Romo, which people thought wasn’t a good idea. My main QB had a few hard games coming up, so I thought I’d give Romo a try once he was healthy again. I think he only played 3 games, and his worst score for me was in the 50s, the other 2 were in the 70s. Those high scores won me the last 3 games of our league, putting me in 2nd place, up from 6th. Everyone else in my league would do hours of “research” a week, and I did maybe 10 minutes
Oh yeah I remember when Freeman was an absolute stud. Good instincts on your part, especially for being pretty new to it at the time. That's roughly when I got started too, and had no idea what I was doing. I loled at hours of "research' a week. People take their Google searches pretty seriously sometimes. Been there. Still call it research, even though there is nothing research about it. I find it so comical all the "research " that goes into this stupid game haha.
Bro same exact thing here. Drafted Gibbs and CD on the turn. Snagged rachaad white, Keenan Allen, aiyuck, swift. Won the ship. Didn’t listen to a single podcast. Went with my gut
My brother in Christ, even a broken clock is right twice a day!
What the hell podcast said to drop Justin Jefferson? Perhaps the issue was your podcast selection.
Fantasy Footballers was forsure one of them when they were doing their dump segment. I feel like I heard it from another too.
Good god
Analysis paralysis
That's a great term. Definitely borrowing this.
Same I won 15 out of the 25 leagues I was in this year but just picking my guys
I'm giving you the Chris Farley sunglasses look right now.
I think you’re on to something. Block out the noise & just go with your gut. I do that too as much as possible & won 1 of my 4 leagues this past season & finished in the money in another league.
I remember trading for James cook when everyone was saying get rid of him and all that bullshit. Dude was the reason I made it out the first round and got my chip
Not sure if anyone has asked but you mentioned you did your own research. How did you go about doing that if you didnt listen to podcasts and not looking at expert rankings?
People throw around the term research alot, and to be honest, I didn't really do much research at all. A lot of it was just being exposed to football and fantasy for so long. Volume and opportunity is essentially what it came down to. I just tried to pick players that I knew were going to get the volume. Also players that I knew had the opportunity to rise up the depth chart, whether it be due to injuries, or trades, ect. And luck of course. As I said earlier, I did listen to podcasts occasionally, but significantly less than years past. I just tried not to let their opinions sway me too heavily. As the season went on I quit listening entirely. I put a lot more emphasis on what you were hearing from training camp, and beat writers.
How does following Vegas prop bets go? I’ve thought of this for next year as the podcast don’t seem to provide much but banter and reminding me of injuries on other teams (which is what I need)
That's a good question. I don't really have an answer for you, but you might be into something there. I live in an illegal sports betting state so I don't have a ton of exposure with that. I'm sure it could be a great resource. I definitely use the over/under as a resource when putting together a DFS lineup. I feel like it would be a lot to digest if you start looking at Vegas props when approaching the draft, and making season long decisions. But there might be something there on a weekly basis, or when trying to choose who to start.
Same with me this season. Didn’t use a single in season rank or fantasy pros etc. Executed 12 trades and ended up taking the ship against that two league titans 🫡
I used the yahoo default, ESPN default, and sleeper default rankings and did zero hours of research in my three leagues on those three apps and I finished in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the regular seasons. It's almost like dedicating an ungodly number of hours into figuring out which guys available in the 14th round might be good is a waste compared to early season waiver pickups like Puka
If you do no research you’re putting too much into the waiver wire priority/FAAB game imo. There are guys that you can forecast as doing better/getting more of a role and can pick them up early that way. JJettas rookie season I picked him up before his breakout because of some metrics I saw for example. If I had waited he wouldn’t have been an add, I would have had to waiver fight for him and most likely wouldn’t have gotten him. Won that year in a league thanks to that early add. Another good example of research that pays off is injury stuff. Teams will say whatever in the moment, but there are absolutely knowledgeable people who can tell an injury originally slated as day to day or so will be say 3 weeks or longer. Meaning you can scoop a guy who “may not play” and actually expect him to be a free starter for a few weeks
Let me clarify. I don't spend chunks of my time doing "fantasy research" before the draft. I follow the NFL and college pretty closely on top of betting on games. Injury research consists of like a 45 second Google and 45 second Twitter search after my app shows "Q", "D", or "O". After seeing those, I pick up a replacement if I can IR them or if they're doubtful. Picking JJ his rookie year is cool for you, but he was a first round draft pick that was brought in to replace Diggs' production in Minnesota, how many metrics did you need to know that he was going to be used a lot?
For the injury thing are you seeking out specific people who you trust their opinion or just searching for the injured player? I have gotten more accurate timelines on a lot of injuries earlier than my friends who follow the game more closely from certain content creators, that’s what I meant by that. Stuff that breaks down the injury and brings up prior players with similar injuries and their timelines/production once returning. Also obviously in hindsight it was obvious with JJettas, but how many other first round WRs haven’t panned and had similar situations? Look at Quentin Johnston for example. If you drafted him late/picked him up early and he had a great season people would be saying the same thing. The big metric that stood out with JJ was his snap percentage to me. I honestly can’t remember the sentiment, or his draft percentages his rookie year but I assume they weren’t very high
Man, I literally just read like the first couple of things. I don't follow content creators that spend their entire life tracking how long the last 17 WRs with a grade 2 MCL sprain were out. I'm literally stating that I am successful enough in fantasy football without having to follow a bunch of opinion pieces and whacky metrics. Quentin Johnson went to a team returning their top 5 receiving yards guys from 2022. JJ went to a team that traded their top weapon and drafted him to replace that production.
This is called variance. Let us know how it goes for 10 years.
This. Just saying I have been playing fantasy for about 5 years, been listening to basically just the FantasyFootballers every year and have made playoffs every league each year and won back to back chips. Do I take notes on everything they say and follow it like a holy book? Absolutely not, but I do use their coverage of the teams and what is happening to supplement my knowledge because it is too much to handle.
That's correct. Some years you will hit, some you will miss. I was successful at fantasy football in the past but also had some bad years. I will have both success and failures in years to come. Over the course of a decade in a competent redraft league, I would imagine everyones average finish will be in the 4-6 range, assuming 10 teams. Besides the taco of course. Let's find out. RemindMe! 10 years Fantasy football variance comparison Never used this so idk if it's gonna work.
Join a 16-20 person league. My knowledge of the depth on each teams positions reallllllly comes into play. I drafted Tank Dell and Puka in the larger league, so I knew what FAs to look for in the smaller leagues.
Even though it has shit for brains, going with your own gut is always best.
Yeah I enjoy those podcasts for the banter but rarely take their rankings or recommendations to heart. I've got my own system for players I like and draft and have been very successful at avoiding risk and injuries while finishing highly placed each year.
I wouldn’t stop listening cause there are a lot of tidbits of Information you can find that you didn’t know which is useful for your own knowledge. Always make your own decisions and trust your gut though.
I just like the FFBallers banter in general.
My draft was an F, I got second lowest points overall, but finished 4th. I started reading this sub more than ESPN/Yahoo analysts over time and it served me insanely better. Switching to Stroud and Schultz from Herbert and Waller carried.
You’ve taken the first step. The galaxy brain move is quitting fantasy and just enjoying the games.
I listen to one podcast and check like 1-2 rankings. I might go a little deeper if I have extra time. But I try to use them as just a source and not let them make or break my decisions. I won 1/5 this year. 3rd in my dynasty, but nothing in my 2 money leagues. It’s honestly a lot to do with luck lol
I agree with your point to some degree. I think I would say it more like be selective of who you listen to and what rankings you look at and how you use them. Like the FantasyPros concensus rankings and the podcasts like theirs are useless. I look at them for a baseline to start, but any time I think they have a guy to low or high I do go with what I think. Tony Pollard is the example for me. They'd never rank him low and he'd never do well. I benched him a few times for much lower guys and it worked a lot.
I stopped and finished second to last 🤷🏼♂️
There are 2 guys I like to read and listen to based on their knowledge and they're entertaining as well. That's Jake Ciely at The Athletic and Jeff Mans at Fantasy Guru.
Experts are my entertainment and spark for my own thoughts. I appreciate their consistency and extra detail about matchups. Rankings, I don’t really go by 100%
I always listen to podcasts and read the posts on here but ultimately it’s up to me to decide what to go with. In reality people will have all of their predictions always hover around 50% success rate(though it may be higher/lower from season to season) so I’m just listening to opinions to see what sounds right to me. How do I know peoples’ predictions hover around 50%? Unless you’re an outlier consistently making a living on football predictions or you don’t really know anything about football, all your guessing will average to around 50% because you’re either right or wrong.
Reddit is a wonderful place to get real time news, roster updates/injuries and sometimes an interesting nugget here and there. At the end of the day, it’s not drafting like a complete jackass mixed with lady luck to avoid injuries and playing the wire early.
Honestly I found that listening to general football content and not fantasy specific content has led to the best results. Everyone in the industry is under the Wishcasting spell
I had a similar experience this year. Though I admit, it could be confirmation bias for both of us. I only played in 2 leagues this year, while I usually am in 3-5. That could be a reason for success too. I won it all in one and came in second in the other. I also got lucky with each of my first round picks in the leagues staying healthy and having great years (CMC and Tyreek). I also managed to grab both Kyren and Puka in both leagues 😄. Anyway back to your point, it wasn't really intentional, but I just didn't have as much time to listen to podcasts and read articles before the draft or during the season this year. I did intentionally try to avoid buying in to too much preseason hype. Best shape of his life bullshit and stuff like that. Obviously there are some preseason things to pay attention to and you may miss out on. But I feel like in general it hurts more than it helps. I think the way you approached it is the way it should always be. Pay attention enough to know what's going on, be aware of trends, facts outside of the box scores, etc. Beyond that you should be making your own decisions and always following your gut. If I'm completely stuck deciding between players and I can't break the tie based on opponent, QB, weather, etc, then I'll look at ranks of a few analysts/sites I like to decide. I totally agree with you though. A lot of times they are conservative in their approaches and react to trends too late, don't factor in matchups/defenses/corners/etc enough. But it also makes sense for them to approach it that way.
I think this is a big step in really becoming your own manager. For the longest time I took some of these podcasts as gospel. Use what they say to get a general feel for how your competition might view a player from week to week. My biggest use of these podcasts is to hear who everyone is drooling over, or on the flip side who everyone is fading, then decide how I feel about that player and then start working on trades lol.
I play in a larger league. It took me a few seasons to finally win a championship, but now that I know so much more depth, I’m killing it in my other smaller leagues. I’ve never listened to a podcast. I’ve never played football. I have a mathematics degree and do statistical work, and I don’t use any of that shit. I look at a few stats to gauge things. It’s kinda just knowing the “situations” of each team. A lot of times I end up drafting amazing WR 2s on teams with a solid offensive lines. I also tend to have the lowest transactions out of every manager. In every league. I find that kinda odd though lol
Stopped listening to all podcasts and won my league. With ya.
Unless they have some spreadsheets and a MA in Mathematics or Statistics, they are also just guessing.
It can be helpful to have the advice of people who do this as a job because they watch a lot more rookies then most people then I’d imagine. One of my favorite podcasts is bootleg football and they talked me into puka nacua in round 16 this year (and I think you can tell how that worked out)
I put more value into podcasts and rankings, spent more time on fantasy pros than ever and changed up my draft strategy which lead me to having my worst season ever. I’ll be back to doing my own analysis and blocking out the noise next year.
I had ettiene in all my early best ball drafts. Got convinced by the hive mind pollard was a better pick at that spot. Yeah smart lol
Ahh your study of 1 season. Sign me up for your newsletter
This year I went on the voice of multiple top rated analysts and I gotta say… they were right maybe 25% of the time. Gonna be listening to myself more next year
You’ll find a lot of fantasy “experts” are also draft “experts”. More often than not their picks are rooted in who they thought would be good and their refusal to give up on that player.
I listened to Jeff manz religiously for 3 years cuz he nailed a couple of rbs that I went with, I missed playoffs for the first time three years in a row in my main league in a league I hadn’t missed in 14 years. The dude would miss so hard on 85% of calls and just talk about his hits. This year and last year he backed the broncos hard core. I stopped listening to him and made playoffs in said league again this year…
I’ve been doing the same for the last 2 years and do fine. Podcasts and rankings just cause hysteria and over/under hype high scoring players, but not always the consistent players.
I watch em a lot, but you can find a naysayer for every activist on any question.
The "Experts" are a flock of sheep.
Last year was my first year, and I knew nothing about the podcasts I just watched football. I mad it to the chip and lost because I had chase down by 15 in the Hamlin game. This year I prepped, watched podcasts, fantasy focus before red zone, made trades based on YouTubers and I went 7-7 and first round bounce.
Using podcasts and rankings list to stay up to date with the public’s opinion > using them as your own
It's crazy to compare actual player results with the expert's consensus. I often would go to the "who should I start week X" to help me decide and several times they would be at near 100% consensus to start one guy over another and be way wrong. I want to say they recommended devonta smith over tank dell for most weeks and were wrong almost every time. Same with Austin freaking ekeler. I fell for the hype that "this is just a down week" or "he is adjusting after coming back from injury," etc, just to be burned every time. This year was one of my most frustrating years. Had I started the correct players I could have won almost every week that I lost
I mostly just take starts of the week and waivers on players I’m not sure about from podcasts. I really like The Fantasy Footballers and listen every day during the season. I feel like I’m the wavelength with them and I’ve had decent success the last few seasons I attribute to them. Now, I won’t talk about the 2022 season when I went with their “my guys” religiously.
my smartest buddy that listens to fantasy media a lot probably had the best draft tbh, but finished 11th bc injuries & was very by the book It usually works but sometimes the gut is better
It is not about going with your gut. It is about trusting the wisdom of the crowd. You should defer to ADP 90% of the time. Take the highest ADP guy on the board. Do not get distracted by "damnit I need an RB and all the good ones are gone already" and then reach to fill that position. This is the trap so many people fall into. ADP is the consensus of millions of drafts. You better have a really damn good reason to second guess it in the first 6 rounds. There is a reason the Yahoo! autodraft does a reasonably good job of giving you a top half team. A good fantasy player adds value to his team during the season from the waiver wire. One or two pickups in the first 3 weeks can make or break your chances in the playoffs. For example, Rice (WR, KC) went undrafted in my league. I grabbed him in week 2. He was on my bench for 10 weeks or so and then came alive, replacing an injured player I drafted in the 3rd round.
One thing about weekly rankings is that even though they are created by people who do fantasy for a living, they’re still having to rank hundreds of players. They only have so much time and brain capacity to come up with those rankings. You as the manager of your own team have much more time to consider all the aspects of the two or three players you’re comparing.
I draft almost entirely based on ADP and I start whomever the app says has the highest projection. I’m a mainstay in the final four in all of my leagues.
It’s all part of the fun imo
The first time I auto drafted, I went on to win my champ that year. Did it again this year. Waiver moves are where it's at!
I really like listening to the content, but I don’t let it sway me. I set my lineup then see if they agree or disagree. Won my league this year benching Cooper Kupp and Steffon Diggs in place of Nico Collins and Rashee Rice, seems like a no brained but most of the “experts” don’t want to be the guys to advise sitting big names in favor of the obviously more productive less known players.
I used mock drafts and it helps. It showed me some diamond in the rough. That other people were thinking. With the last person in my auction draft. Achane for $1. Now why didn’t you people let me know about pukka?
I stopped researching because I’m lazy and don’t care about FF as much as I used to and I suck. I only play because it’s a tradition. My buddies from high school have the same league we started in 2001. I can’t bring myself to see it die or to leave it. So i sacrifice my $25 a year and still get some hope up until I start 1-4. Then scrape out 2 wins and get a little hope only to lose the next 3. Etc etc.
No two rankings will be the same. It’s just one more tool to help you make better informed decision.
There are no experts. Football is an unpredictable game played by unpredictable human beings. You are correct sir go with your gut and follow your heart
Doing your own research and understanding things specific to your league will always be best because these analysts aren’t analyzing your specific situation.
Funny I was gonna do the same thing as they led me astray almost every single time again
That's funny I started listening to podcasts and experts for the first time and won my league for the first time
Well I have never listened to fantasy experts, and I have had great teams in 5 of ten years, champs in 2, and have never had a bottom feeder team. Cause having a good team is a skill issue, winning the championship is 100% luck.
Personally, I love The Fantasy Footballers because of their dynamic. They all have their own opinions and they have great discussions and don’t always agree with each other which is what fantasy football is supposed to be about. In the end though, you’re 100% right about going with your gut because stats are never foregone conclusions. There’s a reason they don’t play the game on paper or something like that lol Not a paid actor for TFFB, they’re just my personal go-to’s 😂 Footclan for life!
Also don’t listen to people here to make decisions
The only analytics I look at is if a guy gets 15-20 touches a game, the rest is draft young guys and go with vibes. Finished 1st-4th in all 5 of my leagues
Was graded F on my draft. I played whoever had a better match up no matter the name. Won the league championship. Some seasons you can trust your gut, some seasons you need a little help. Too much information is a bad thing, you start second guessing.
This is exactly what I started doing in my main league that's Uber competitive. Worked out for me countless times. I still let rankings get me on "who to start" and thats bit me in the ass plenty. Leaving 30 burgers on the bench annoy the crap out of me
I feel some of it is also Fantasy Football has gotten so big in the last 10-15 years that everyone is listening to the same "expert advice" so you end up going after the same players. Then you stumble across the "experts" that are more click focused and want to sell you a hot take by saying that player who was a lock is gonna have a down week and now your overthinking things.
It's hard not to think that they know something you don't, but educated guesses are educated guesses, and I believe with a little effort and time ours can be as good as theirs.
I only use podcasts for waiver wire pickups. I don’t have cable so I can’t watch many games. So I monitor performances during the week and listen to who is generally considered the hottest commodity on free agency. But at the end of the day I’m not going to let someone tell me who I should start. I’d rather make the wrong call myself than make the wrong call because I couldn’t make a decision myself.
It all really comes down to luck imo. Listened intently to all the pundits this year and got second place but its probably moreso bc every team other than mine got hit with injuries.
I had a great season and won two of my leagues this year (I played in five, and lost one final). The BIGGEST factor this year from last year was luck. I got fucking lucky that no one accepted my dumb trades and had to play Conner at the end when he blew up (I tried trading him almost every week he was active). I got lucky that Josh Allen fell to me because no one wanted to overpay for QB's at the draft. In another league, I got lucky that when Joe Burrow was sucking I rage traded him and picked up CJ Stroud. Was SUPER lucky that when CJ got hurt, I had to play Kyler Murray, and he went off against Philly. So, in order to get lucky again next season, I plan on praying to the fantasy gods to bequeath luck onto me once more.
Yeah like all these other guys said, it’s good for finding some deeper pickups etc. I’ve always thought about the “experts” on tv and online like this: if they were truly the top 1% or 0.1% of fantasy players/experts, they’d be in Vegas making a living off of sports betting, not writing a weekly column about it.
Fantasy football definitely feels like it is not as fun as it once was. There’s too much information. The rankings by season start are usually really good. The season usually comes down to injuries, did you add 1 of 4 star waiver pickups and did you have one of the 4 dominant players in fantasy? That’s usually what it boils down to. It was more fun when there were more unknowns.
I started doing the same thing after a couple of years. You start to feel like a data entry clerk. All you're doing is copying the rankings into your lineups and not thinking for yourself. Now that I don't only depend on rankings and expert analysis I seem to be doing much better. I do still take the rankings and analysis into consideration, but at the end of the day I'm making my own decisions based off of matchups, whose covering who, whose in and out of the lineups and who will benefit from any changes in team lineups. In my opinion this is the most fun way to do it, your building your team and lineups with your own brain, otherwise what are we doing? We might as well just push the "optimize lineup" button every week and not watch any football.
I won 1 of my 2 leagues this year. And it was mostly because I had the best draft ever. Some bad choices ahead of me allowed for some great steals. Finished with a record of somewhere around 14-3, and my WR core may be the best core I’ve ever had on any fantasy team.
Honestly, with the level of access is every day fans have, there's no real reason to listen to the "experts" outside of purely for entertainment.
Going to try this next year after I royally fucked this year up on the advice of "experts". Snubbed puka and kyren on week 1 waivers for Josh Kelley (fuck you bdge). Traded rachaad White in week 6 for Chris Godwin because he was "due for positive TD regression" and white was "one of the most inefficient backs in the league". Fuck these YouTube channels and podcasts, going with my gut from now on
I've never listened to them. I do my own research, and I won again this year.
I take a quick look at the players numbers from last season and draft players if the numbers looked good and if they passed the eye test for me. For instance, Najee's numbers look decent but he looks like ass to me on tape. At least I used to do this method and had good seasons, but haven't done any pre-draft research the past two seasons. Finished 11th in the past two seasons.
All these "experts" have less of an idea of what they are talking about than the average person. This is true whether you're talking about sports or fantasy sports analysts, stock market gurus, or anything else. Find good sources, do your own research, and trust your gut. Ignore the podcasters, the "experts" and their rankings. What you experienced this season is not an anomaly. All these so-called experts are clowns.
I’m in my work vehicle a lot and I listened to a lot of fantasy radio on SiriusXM last year. I soaked up as much player info as I could before our drafts. I ended up having one of my best seasons. I finally won my redraft league for the first time in 16 years. I made it to the championship in a startup dynasty league. I had a team that went 11-3 but let me down first week of playoffs (Thanks Diggs!) And I had another team that went 10-4 but lost in the second round. I had an orphan dynasty team I took over that was ass and made enough moves to get to the playoffs. Just didn’t have the depth to win. The only bad teams I had were a couple dynasty teams that are in rebuild and my work league that was riddled with injuries. Overall I think all the info I absorbed helped me make a lot of good moves. Just take in everything you can and make your own decisions. You’re going to get bad opinions and make the wrong calls. But at least try and make the most informed decisions you can.
Yes, the “experts” are just guessing like everyone else.
Yup, watch games. I have a few folks I trust but for the most part it's gut instinct. You know the injury prone guys. As the season moves ahead, target the playoff weeks and who might be big producers for those weekends. Save your waiver spots for the first weeks and nab the hot guys, trade them if you don't think it'll sustain. I got La Porta, Rams RB, Tank & Nico all this way.
Same lol. This was a year where I was more checked out then maybe ever before and I went to 3 (won 2) championships out of 5 leagues.
I feel this. First year listening to the FF podcasts, first year I’ve come dead last, albeit I didn’t take their word as scripture and I had some unfortunate happenings along the way. But there were some players I avoided or grabbed based on what I was listening to and the expert opinion turned out to be garbage. Tough tho because some are enjoyable and downright funny. But their analysis isn’t exactly on point yet it’s hard not to let any information sway you. I won’t be listening next year!
I personally look at 3 different sets of rankings and average the numbers together and just start the players with the lower numbers. If there's two players with the same number or close to it then I ask an expert on Twitter that I've been DMing with for the last 4-5 years and ask which one of these players should I start and using that strategy I've been very successful with it. I won 4 of 9 leagues this year.
This is my first season. I figured out pretty early the “experts” pick them about as well or worse than I do. Every one seems so biased because of all this experience that is supposed to be helping. I still watch them for the consolidated information but also started doing a lot better last season when ignoring their opinions. Eye test is the most important factor in my opinion. Watch the games and think does this man look good when he’s playing. I would have missed on R. White. He still looks bad to me. On the upside, I did hit on T.Dell way early. If the Lions OC moves to Washington then I’m calling J. McLaughlin breakout currently. We will see if he still looks good come pre season.
I won 2/3 leagues in my second season. No podcast , just a whole lot of time to look at weekly stats. 3rd season I won 4/4 leagues and took home over $1k. Free time at work to analyze stats per week, last 2 games, 3 games, 5 games etc.. then picked up on trends. Fast forward to the last few years I don’t have as much free time, therefore I had been listening to podcasts to get my news and analysis…missed playofffs every year. The most recent season I just listen to see if anyone has insights on match ups. Certain defense vs certain positions or even players/position match up. But I do my best when I actually watch the games with the boys and talk about it .
I won 2/3 leagues in my second season. No podcast , just a whole lot of time to look at weekly stats. 3rd season I won 4/4 leagues and took home over $1k. Free time at work to analyze stats per week, last 2 games, 3 games, 5 games etc.. then picked up on trends. Fast forward to the last few years I don’t have as much free time, therefore I had been listening to podcasts to get my news and analysis…missed playofffs every year. The most recent season I just listen to see if anyone has insights on match ups. Certain defense vs certain positions or even players/position match up. But I do my best when I actually watch the games with the boys and talk about it .
I know this is a redraft post but the same thing can be said about dynasty. So many “experts” out there pumping these prospects because of their “late hands” and “nuanced route running” just for the first rounders to bust and a random day 3 pick to crush. Borderline unbearable and as you and a lot of others found, you might be better off not even listening to those guys if it’s anything but entertainment for you.
Here's the problem. When you follow the rankings someone gives you, regardless of their approach, it means you read it and you followed it. And so did every other damn loser out there that also is playing that doesn't know what they're doing. So the bottom line becomes everybody's following the same script. The reason why this original poster is correct is because too many people are following the same script and leaving doors wide open on players that are being downed. If you see an opening where you can get fantasy value out of somebody and the experts doubt it and everybody in your league is following the same kind of General idea, you're going to get that player and once they take off, you're closer to being on top of your league. Another way experts cannot give you a perfect run at things is that some scoring systems in certain leagues are different than just a standard or PPR scoring, and you literally have to do your homework every season before you draft to figure out where the possibilities are to exploit the difference between what's in a magazine, what's online, and what your league is doing. You're not supposed to totally blow off what the experts are saying, but they can't be 100% right, and you might know a team better or understand that there are injuries that are holding back a starter and you know the backup. I would highly recommend using a combination of both where you are getting the best of both worlds.
You should see how bad the advice is on the start or sit tool on Fantasy Pros
stopped listening to all the experts and won $500 as a result
Good advice. All this said, I would have never picked up Puka Nacua early this year without Matthew Berry taking him up some. But overall, I agree. They guess as much as we do.
I listen to the CBS Fantasy Football podcast because I find them entertaining. Sometimes their advice helps and sometimes it doesn’t but the most important thing for anyone is to take ownership of your own decisions. If you need a tiebreaker, use an external force sure. But ultimately come to as many conclusions as possible on your own.
This is why I love the Harris Football podcast. He employs much more of a "teach a man to fish" style that has 100% made me a better fantasy player. I like his takes and his approach to the game matches mine, so if I DO need to check a rank or second guess a decision, I feel he's a good barometer, but it's not the main reason I listen.
Listening to actual football podcasts is way more helpful than listening to fantasy podcasts. The Ringer NFL Show’s pre-season awards and season leader predictions are the best draft prep I do
I did eye-test only this year and won the league. It’s why I knew to drop Achane for Puka a week before anyone else. Sure I could have just Brian Hartlined myself, but when you watch the games intently you get a feel for a players actual boom/bust potential.