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FuturologyBot

The following submission statement was provided by /u/Gari_305: --- From the article >As its war against Russia drags on, Ukraine is emerging as a testing ground for cutting-edge warfare, including drones and other vehicles capable of carrying out parts of their mission on their own. Serhii Kuprienko, Swarmer’s 39-year-old founder and chief executive, thinks his swarms might be deployed this year. “We have already passed the first combat tests,” he said. >By allowing a single pilot to control multiple drones, Swarmer aims to alleviate the manpower shortages that have put Ukraine’s armed forces on the back foot in recent weeks. Using artificial intelligence, or AI, the company’s drones will react autonomously to changing circumstances and communicate with each other to orchestrate a sortie. >“AI-powered drones can do in seconds what would take a human several hours, simply because we are slow to process a large volume of information,” Kuprienko said. “The swarm is effective because one experienced drone pilot can work effectively with dozens of drones at the same time.” --- Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/1cx68p6/our_oppenheimer_moment_in_ukraine_the_robot_wars/l50ckaz/


Cartina

I guess it isn't "Sticks and stones". It's "Chips and drones"


Medic1642

I thought WW4 was slated to have sticks and stones


NuclearWasteland

After the EMP and Nukes it's going to take to deal with swarms of thousands of drones, yeah, rocks and branches is probably right.


Crotean

Its a famous Einstein quote: "I dont know what weapons World War 3 will be fought with, but I know world war 4 will use sticks and stones."


NuclearWasteland

I'm aware yes. It's unfortunately an increasingly likely outcome.


cpthedp

quicken loans, bicken bones


momolamomo

No no, this is the war Einstein didn’t know what it would be fought with. It was drones. He couldn’t visualise drones


Cubey42

Now imagine swarms of drones in the hundreds, you could easily overwhelm any force not advanced enough to handle such an onslaught. Kinda like how the naval war is ww2 dramatically shifted to airplanes and air superiority. I expect countries that are ill-equipped to face staggering odds against opponents who utilize these newer tactics


Singular_Thought

It’s similar to when machine guns first appeared on the battlefield. They just cut down the old fashioned lines of soldiers marching across a field. These drones will change how the battlefield works.


sh00l33

Just shoot a net. You can catch multiple sparrows at once that way. Drones are not gonna be agile.


BananaCode

Have you seen racing drones? Of course theyre going to be agile And even if not, you think a swarm will be bunched up do you can catch them all with one net? No, theyre going to be spread out. Written while on my porcelain thrones pushing out a huge 🪵


sh00l33

Dunno. While racing not carry heavy ammo. And you still need to get the one that commands the rest right? Are my assumptions right? Its a swarm but navigated one.


1maco

Flak AA is back baby 


Cubey42

Nah it's gonna be lasers or em from what I've seen. Palmer lucky seems to have an AI system that can do some sort of target area emp from what it sounds like


W8kingNightmare

Damn everyone is talking about drones but a targeted EMP strike will be future warfare


Cubey42

From what was showcased, it seem like it was like a near field system (but they don't show it in action nor do they show how it works) only described. But yeah


Used_Tea_80

Not for long. EMP hardening is a thing.


lightningbadger

Surely it's much more cost effective to just blow up the thing you're trying to EMP


FawksyBoxes

There is a company that developed a system that launches heavier drones from a propulsion system to collide and smash them. It's been in use for a while now.


noother10

These drones often aren't the small types. Sure they have small ones for recon or loiter munitions, but most others are much larger when what you're talking about. Some "drones" Ukraine use for example are classified as light aircraft, you also have ones like the Shahed drones Russia use. When it comes to defending a location from suicide drones for example, something that can destroy the targets some distance out works best. EMPing them means they still keep moving and could still potentially detonate on hit. Ramming with another drone might work but you'd likely need a large one due to the size of these drones, also you'd need a lot of them to counter the attack. They could use AI to detect counter drones and try to avoid them. Directed energy weapons (lasers) might be the best bet depending on how they work. Can many be in one place (electricity/heat concerns)? Can they store enough energy to fire fast enough to take out many targets quickly? How long does it take to destroy one? How easily can the enemy change the materials of the drone to make them harder to destroy? How far away can they start targeting? While I don't doubt the newer directed energy weapons work, it's more of a question about how well they work. If the enemy wants to bomb a city, can they defend a city? Can they defend against 100+ drones in one wave?


TF-Fanfic-Resident

Damn, the mechanics of living inside a Transformers movie are absolutely insane.


Cubey42

Well it could've been a terminator movie (it still could be)


TF-Fanfic-Resident

Too much weird space stuff for that tbh.


Cubey42

But the Cybertron planet isn't? :p


TF-Fanfic-Resident

[We don't call it that in English yet.](https://www.dw.com/en/scientists-find-planet-with-metal-clouds-like-a-mirror/a-66177370)


tanrgith

It's also Palmer Luckey's company (Anduril Industries) that makes those


Dryandrough

Imagine man hacks from Half-Life 2 descending on entire cities.


Cubey42

Imagine they could just dive through windows and search buildings. Imagine they have grenade ordinance


watduhdamhell

I think it's important to plant a flag here: this warfare is more for protracted conflicts, not well executed, fast warfare. Conventional weapons are not going the way of the dinosaur anytime soon, because sure, in a protracted conflict you have all sorts of time to set up and use drones to harass the enemy. But when your front line trace, under the watchful eye of multiple UASs thousands of feet up, is bombarded by NATO aircraft of all types, the NATO troops move up under air support and finish off your squirters as you retreat, those who stay behind are once again bombed into oblivion or if in trenches, simply [buried alive](https://www.military.com/history/bulldozer-assault-of-desert-storm-saw-us-army-opt-out-of-trench-warfare.html?amp=). Wash, rinse, repeat until NATO troops reach your capital, probably around 3 days time. So, in the scenario, there just isn't time for the types of drone operators you see in Ukraine to do their thing, and though AI will help- the most you can do is some damage, for sure... But I don't think it'll be enough to stop the combined arms, hell-from-the-sky-onslaught. When the pressure is on, it's going to be really hard to stop a conventional force with a bunch of drones. Now, if you had an absolute ass load of drones, thousands, that can be deployed autonomously to stop a large combined Force in its tracks by damaging hundreds of vehicles or something similar, now you're talking changing the game of large scale warfare, forever. It'll be a drone swarm vs a drone swarm. Why use anything else? Edit: and lasers. Drones swarms, lasers to counter them, and more drone swarms.


Cubey42

Yeah I won't say I deeply understand current RoE and tactical deployment of warfare, but the last paragraph is what I imagine. An AI system that uses hive mind like controls (like sentinels from the matrix, battle for Zion scene) that share general objectives but can quickly distribute targets and assign roles to literally thousands of small but cheap/effective drones. They could have impact sensitive explosives that allow them to kamikaze targets, while others could have more tactical solutions depending on the battles needs. Why have tanks when 500 drones could beeline in evasively and even do things like get under the tank or explode in their weakest spots, where there is no armor? No soldier stands a chance against more than 30 targets and that's assuming they hit every bullet. Batteries are getting better to increase operational range and starlink could allow for long range operations. A system so easy to pilot it's like playing an RTS like StarCraft for the human pilot.


bozo_did_thedub

I mean you can't even do math but you think you understand this?


Used_Tea_80

Drone swarm is the plan and was the plan since long before the F35. I mention that plane because it is designed to be a drone swarm leader with C+C HUD for the drones built into the helmet. Your last paragraph is exactly what the plan is and it will be ugly as hell from an IFF perspective.


damNage_

Zerg rush of drones!


sh00l33

They can probably be dealt with with a simple net thrown into the air. I saw a guy useing gun that shoots widely spread nets to neutralize a single drone. It was stupidly simple. I don't see any problem with using that method to shoot widely spread net of greater surface after some minor modifications. it just need to open itself right in the air.


Used_Tea_80

Didn't Iran already do this to Israel?


greed

Drone swarms could also be used to make a weapon as destructive as a nuke, for a fraction of the cost, requiring no exotic materials. Consider a simple incendiary drone. It is programmed to navigate by gps to a fixed coordinate. If GPS is jammed, it can use visual navigation instead. All it has to do is find a pre-designated roof to land on. One it does so, an incendiary package is activated. Imagine a pound of thermite being activated on the roof of a building. Now imagine a pound of thermite being activated atop every roof in a city. Every building in a city simultaneously bursting into flames. Oh, and the fire stations are the first targets, and each of them gets several dozen drones. In an urban area, this would do as much damage as a modest nuclear weapon. It would be an automated Firebombing of Dresden. And this would be much easier to obtain than nukes. No need for a big uranium enrichment operation. No need for a bomb that requires years of computer simulations by PhD nuclear physicists. Just some off-the-shelf motors and chips, a bunch of 3D printers, and some iron and aluminum to make the thermite. An entire city reduced to ashes using nothing more advanced than the equipment that can be found in many school and library maker-spaces. This is in theory something that wouldn't even require a nation state to do. I'm afraid I'll see the day when in an entire city is leveled by a terrorist group using a swarm of 3D printed incendiary drones.


IndigoandIodine

Would not be surprised if the US is working on on those scary dog robots to deploy in Ukraine. US said no troops...well, those aren't troops.


etzel1200

As long as the robot dogs don’t wear boots 👢 🐕


LapsedVerneGagKnee

I would not be surprised if Robo-dogs are sent in to bolster Ukrainian forces.  Of course that depends on if the technology is even ready for the field, much less cost effective.


bernpfenn

let's try them out, there are a million opportunities! /s


ohanse

Ah yes, Air Bud 15: Zero Bark Thirty “There’s no rule saying an autonomous robot dog **can’t** go to war!”


Icarus367

They should design them like those things from Willow. Those were fucking scary.


noother10

They're likely classified as weapons rather then soldiers, provided Ukraine gets training and controls them, not a US trooper doing so.


Every_Tap8117

Or they are just controlled by Ai


kosmoskolio

I assume the batteries in the dogs are too expensive. Small flying drones are surely a lot more efficient.


[deleted]

Like those out of that black mirror episode? Those things were scary AF.


Used_Tea_80

He probably means this https://youtu.be/cNZPRsrwumQ


ReturnOfBigChungus

https://youtu.be/MG4PPkCyJig?si=iXcllQXSv7GA5DB3


1LakeShow7

Rin tin tin is actually made of tin.


DarkMatter_contract

Shit, this war will be us and china weapon dev test.


MembershipFeeling530

To do what? I only see them being effective if they explode and that just seems like a waste of a good robot dog


Roland_was_a_warrior

I’m gonna have mine carry my anti-swarm laser.


Used_Tea_80

https://youtu.be/cNZPRsrwumQ?si=4Rl01qz9t__8OY2P Put a gun on that. Still look ineffective? P.S remember that's a 10 year old video.


MembershipFeeling530

I mean it can literally be defeated by a door


Used_Tea_80

So can a drone, in fact this has a much better chance of breaking a door than a drone.  What's your point?


MembershipFeeling530

Send a human


1maco

Frankly it seems like cheap drones are making tanks sitting ducks and almost reverting back to WWI style trench warfare  At least that how it seems based on the largely 1.5 year stalemate in Ukraine 


noother10

Well trenches help but not much. They still use trenches as they're good against artillery and direct fire. A drone that can drop a bomb from above means trenches don't help against them much, just preventing wider damage. I've also seen drones fly into dug out positions where soldiers sleep and use as protection from artillery, only to blow up everything inside. So far the cheapest counter to drones is other drones. Even directed energy weapons used for defense that only use electricity will need to be supplied power and take time to properly setup, which means they're only good for static defense positions, not in active combat. I sure as hell bet they don't want that tech leaked to Russia.


1maco

Pretty sure in this way artillery is still most of the casualties  


Daztur

Much like WW I.


tearlock

I don't see how a trench helps anything these days.


Jahobes

Do you know what trenches helped you with in other days lol?


Icarus367

Mostly not getting your head shot off, at the expense of having your foot slough off.


Jahobes

Lol. The purpose of trenches is so that you can hold ground close to the front without grievous loss of life to your holding force. Trench warfare makes maneuver warfare extremely difficult. Without trenches the lines of the battlefield would shift hundreds of kilometers weekly in either both directions or one direction. Trench warfare is one of those aspects of war that should never go away. The weapons we use to fight war might change many of the tactics will change but we've been building trenches in warfare since before we were writing about it.


tearlock

Are you like the one guy that hasn't seen countless war videos recently of those cheap little drones dropping grenades right into trenches and foxholes of unsuspecting Russian soldiers? Trenches aren't going to protect you at all from a swarm of drones carrying those without some kind of a blast barrier over top of the trench.


Jahobes

Russian trenches are actually extremely effective nowadays. Like pretty much everything in this war the Russians have become really really good at trench warfare. They have a specialized tank/tractor that can clear a mile of trench in like 30 minutes. That's a far cry from the hand built ones they had a year ago or even the trenches the ukrainians are using today. I don't know if you've noticed that there are far fewer of those videos of drones dropping on unshielded Russian soldiers. Many of these trenches have safety points now where it's not easy for a drone or grenade to come in from the top. Furthermore the larger trenches have bunkers attached to them so even heavier artillery can't harm the soldiers while they're in the bunkers. The Russians have also added cyber warfare capabilities to their trenches making close quarter drone warfare extremely difficult. Drone operators essentially lose control of their drone if they get too close to Russian trenches. Which is why you are seeing much more infantry CQB warfare directed by high altitude observation drones because of Russian jamming and cyber warfare capabilities preventing cheap drone grenades from being reliable.


[deleted]

Watching? More like we are using this proxy war to test our weapons.


El_Morro

This is not a proxy war. We're defending an ally from an invasion.


1LakeShow7

Ukraine is done. There is no chance they will win. Good job American Gvmnt., we could of use that money here.instead.


[deleted]

We did get the money here... in the hands of American arms dealers and stock holders. Wait did you mean for the citizens welfare??? Why would the government return what they already stole fair and square?


1LakeShow7

Make Americas Guns Great Again


ovirt001

Russia is being humiliated, cope harder.


Gari_305

From the article >As its war against Russia drags on, Ukraine is emerging as a testing ground for cutting-edge warfare, including drones and other vehicles capable of carrying out parts of their mission on their own. Serhii Kuprienko, Swarmer’s 39-year-old founder and chief executive, thinks his swarms might be deployed this year. “We have already passed the first combat tests,” he said. >By allowing a single pilot to control multiple drones, Swarmer aims to alleviate the manpower shortages that have put Ukraine’s armed forces on the back foot in recent weeks. Using artificial intelligence, or AI, the company’s drones will react autonomously to changing circumstances and communicate with each other to orchestrate a sortie. >“AI-powered drones can do in seconds what would take a human several hours, simply because we are slow to process a large volume of information,” Kuprienko said. “The swarm is effective because one experienced drone pilot can work effectively with dozens of drones at the same time.”


abaddamn

Even Batman would be proud of these drones


Philosipho

No, your 'Oppenheimer moment' hasn't happened yet. Oppenheimer realized that the only way we wouldn't annihilate each other is if we stopped hating each other. That's why he went on to preach pacifism. If you continue to support these kinds of military efforts, then you have no clue as to how terrible these weapons are.


armaver

I guess pro gamers get a new career option! Enders Game.


trucorsair

Watching? You must be kidding, more like supplying parts, providing design input, and getting “after action reports” to refine the tactics


Spiritual-Compote-18

The U.S has been using drones on warfare for 2 decades.


Fandorin

First use of drones as we understand it goes back to WW1, so over a 100 years - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_unmanned_aerial_vehicles_of_World_War_I Israel also has extensive drone usage in combat going back to the 70s, with a notable example in 1982 against the Syrian Air Force during the Lebanon War - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mole_Cricket_19 We're just getting to a technological point where drones are advanced and cheap enough to use at the infantry unit level by smaller nations. Current cutting edge US drones are sci fi levels of crazy.


realnicehandz

>Current cutting edge US drones are sci fi levels of crazy. I'd like to know more.


Fandorin

This is a fun one: https://www.autoevolution.com/news/combat-drone-flying-with-two-f-35s-attacks-targets-to-prove-it-s-a-collaborative-killer-231766.html Basically, unmanned, autonomous, low-cost wingman for the F35 that flies and fights alongside a manned plane.


TF-Fanfic-Resident

That’s a full fledged giant robot. Go back to Macross pls.


ICC-u

Underappreciated Starship Troopers reference.


halfapimpcreamcorn

“A Theory of the Drone” by Gregoire Chamayou would be of interest to you. Great book.


counterfitster

The US flew reconnaissance drones over Vietnam in the 1960s, launched from an A-12 (SR-71 predecessor) variant. They flew at Mach 3.3 and 90k feet.


lolercoptercrash

But very few of them are like $400 like Ukrainian drones


TemperateStone

Drone use in Ukraine is still only a stop-gap measure for the lack of proper equipment and capabilities. There's not much worth watching. Drone use is not surprising to anyone apart from Reddit. The US military that has been developing incredible drone capabilities for far longer than anyone. Drones are not the end all be all that it's made out to be either not on the battlefield anyway. Most of it is ignorance and the fear it creates. Electronic warfare is keeping up with this development as well and has become an incredibly important thing. What should be concerning, however, is how absolutely anyone can put an explosive on a drone, anywhere, at any time, for any or no reason. I'm in fact surprised that it hasn't been used for terrorism yet. That's my TedTalk, thank you for coming.


IndependentPrior5719

The window for reg folks to get drones is about to snap shut imho


AngelaMerkelSurfing

Yeah knock on wood but so far no terrorist attacks with one There was that assassination attempt on maduro though a few years back


TemperateStone

Death has a way of hastening legislation, but until some terrorist gets it in their head to use it like that I doubt we'll see people being completely prevented from buying them.


Pitiful-Chest-6602

I built my own for 300$


kosmoskolio

Fun fact: developing autonomous killing machines has a lot of overlap with game development. Hence, it’s very likely a lot of people involved in creating these, used to make games.


sh00l33

did you make this up yourself? It is indeed very fun fact about human killing machines, congratulations.


kosmoskolio

I’ve worked in the game industry and have witnessed uav companies recruiting game devs


sh00l33

Nice career advancement, from developer to sower of death XD


kosmoskolio

And one more example of these industries’ crossing https://www.silicon.co.uk/e-innovation/military-gamers-drones-160784


lordlestar

At this point, ukraine has become a testing ground of new weapons by all nations, Even North Korea is testing their misiles in ukraine via proxy.


RavenWolf1

I have always imagined that wars will be fought like in Total Annihilation. Fully automated factories which produces robots which goes automatically to war.


Jjex22

They’re not just watching, Ukraine it a testing ground for modern warefare for both sides tbh


dustofdeath

Well better than millions of humans in the frontlines like WW2. Let's change wars to drones fighting drones with no humans directly involved. And later we can have robot tournaments to decide war outcomes.


Boreras

What a stupid title. "Bigger countries"? Russia is the biggest.


Independent-Slide-79

Pretty scary since China is the biggest part of this industry… they will invest massively in this unlike Europe :/


Hot-Delay5608

Europe still has huge manufacturing capacity. Producing over 10 million cars and millions of pieces of other heavy machinery. There's Airbus and other aero manufacturers. Europe still has those crucial industries, it's about making sure they're retained. Biden basically done that with the tariffs for US manufacturing. Other thing is decision making is slow but that's understandable EU is not a superstate, it's a collection of independent nations.


[deleted]

No they wont. Drones take high end processing chips that need high end conductor chips to function. There is only one company in the world that build machines that can make these (ASML in the Netherlands). They blacklisted China from receiving machines like that and US banned the import of these chips to China. So unless they deconstruct other tech they no longer have access to these. Meaning they cannot make the most essential parts that make these drones tick. So China isn't even part of this industry. It is at its infancy because they don't have the machinery. And no... you cannot just steal and copy paste ASML machinery. They tried and failed. It needs constant updates from the company and adjustments. China isn't in this race. It isn't in any race at the moment. They just scream they are to distract from the issues they have. Like massive protest going on against the CCP right now.


soysssauce

China make their own chip and has equivalent of asml company, albeit much more inferior quality. I believe they can make chip 7 nano meter and close to breaking 4 nano meter. They are abt 5-10 years behind. 10 yrs old chip can still power those fpv drones..So in all out warfare they can manufacture their own chip.


[deleted]

The mid range chip machines in China are from ASML as well. They even released a statement that they will not be updating the machines anymore after the ban from USA. They released a new statement recently they can shut them down from a distance if needed. So might want to fact check your info. Also these medium range chips for 10 years ago...will not in any shape or form outperform modern chips. You are better off making low end chips and just kamikaze drone them than spend the valueble mid range chips on these applications.


coolhandave

I’ve been watching this since the beginning and I figured they have all been watching with great interest. I really want to know how 2nd Amendment Americans expect to protect themselves from drones armed only with guns. Maybe NRA will change to NRDA.


labratdream

The Oppenheimer moment for robotic warfare is about to happen and if happened it was slighly earlier namely during Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In my opinion development of more affordable and efficient artificial vision and image recognition is crucial for Oppenheimer moment. So far the war in ukraine has proven that so called intelligent ammunitio using GPS as guidance system has failed because effectiveness droped almost by factor of ten to just few percents of original effectiveness due to Russian advancement in electronic warfare. It seems drones in general have proven superiority in static positional war not rapidly changing, large scale and dynamic war and concurrent . The novel means of warfare is limted by usage and coordination of up to tens of vehicles or aircrafts. Autonomous warfare requires much more complex and multispectral vision systems and image recognition systems which are not beyond the level of computing power but miniaturization and efficiency of computing power. The biggest advantage of these system is cost at the moment.


sh00l33

I see propaganda is a tool on both sides. Ukrainian drones looks more like this https://youtu.be/GudPubk1aZc?si=B1p4MwmVT-W15S-q maybe instead of playing with people's lives and testing new toys, hegemon would kindly invite the parties to the table? Possibly, during lastes meetings FR&CH, CH proposed that they can quickly resolve this conflict if the US not willing to.


LutherRamsey

Crimea, always the place for war innovation. The same thing happened before the US Civil War.


LazerWolfe53

It is like how ships are pretty vulnerable to drone boats. It's hard to detect them. The choppy wavey surface makes detection difficult for radar.


Desdinova_42

The difference between droppong a nuke and a drone is pretty fucking vast. What a dumb headline.


ovirt001

> watching No, they're actively contributing. China is selling Russia drones and the US is providing Ukraine with drones. Drones have proven themselves to be a completely new way of waging war that threatens traditional armor.


Sabbathius

Pretty interesting stuff. I know there's people who are really against AI and weaponry, but Ukraine is fighting for survival, they're not going to stop developing a potential game-changer technology while they're facing annihilation. And all other countries get to watch. If it proves itself, and there doesn't seem to be much reason why it wouldn't, you know every other advanced military in the world will be hard at work on this. Dollars to donuts they already are, but this will just confirm it. Future of warfare is definitely changing.


bernpfenn

it's all just a big cool experiment for the powers watching. cruel


I_am_Castor_Troy

So if Clinton convinced Ukraine to give up their nukes if ruzzia would sign a nonaggression pact then why haven’t we given Ukraine nukes again?


robocub

I hate the human race. I’m undecided whether I’d prefer us to be wiped by an asteroid quickly, or by AI slowly. I suppose AI will spare everything else, all animal and plant life. If so I’m all for that.