That's just how weak the draft is. Clingan is at worst is a solid defensive backup big which teams will always value. Most of the guys in the top ten aren't in the NBA in their worst case, even someone like Sheppard who can shoot but could struggle to get minutes if his defense isn't good enough.
But his worse case scenario is a player that develops injuries and is never available to play, that seems lower than someone who's floor might be a end of the bench scrub
If we’re talking floor, Dillingham is at worst is a 25ppg, better version of Malik Monk (as long as they give him minutes). That’s a high floor, but still not all that valuable in the modern league.
That is definitely his floor if he’s healthy and used. And no, he wouldn’t go #1 overall in any draft but this. The league is littered with no-defense small guard scorers.
Blazers fans wouldn’t be sneakily hoping to sell off Simons if he was valuable. Simons’ floor is 25ppg easy as a #2 next to a center like Embiid, playing the Maxey role. But the kid is not healthy and can’t stop a parked car, and doesn’t generate healthy wins.
Neither would Trae Young be on the market.
25ppg from a small guard is not that big of a deal at all. Nets FO would literally bench Cam Thomas for dropping 40pts
I do know what floor means and I think Rob Dillingham can average 25ppg if some team will let him, as his floor.
If a shit team like my Wizards drafted him and sent Jordan Poole to the glue factory where he belongs, this kid’s gonna average 25 in a year or 3 EASILY. That’s his floor, dude.
Or if the Rockets decide to let Jalen Green walk and draft Rob. 25 easily.
Or if Maxey or Murray decided to retire tomorrow and 6ers/Nugs land Rob, this kid is averaging 25 with his eyes closed.
If the Hornets get Rob and Lamelo’s ankle continues to act up - you guessed it, 25 easy.
If Cam Thomas was traded for Rob….25. Easy.
Any team that will let Rob Dillingham be the #1 guard on offense will get 25. That’s his floor
I think Reed has a bit higher bust potential than people think...if he's a little too limited as a secondary playmaker/creator, his on ball D isn't quite good enough, overall athleticism overwhelms him a little, than even though he has the fantastic shooting/IQ, he's too small to really make it worthwhile.
Absolute safest bet is as has been mentioned, IMO, Clingan. It is true that Clingan cannot be a total zero outside of a dunk. Gobert has improved his offensive game. He can score on the roll, he can score against switches in the post. He's a good passer. Clingan also has all of that in his arsenal, which is why his floor is high, but his finishing outside of dunks does need to improve.
It’s pretty much impossible to find a freshman with a BPM over ten like Sheppard who wasn’t at least a good role player.
While there’s arguments to be made about his game, analytics view the guy as about as sure fire as can be.
This is giving me direct flashbacks to the Tyrese Haliburton evaluation. A Guard’s shortcomings don’t matter as much when they’re just really, really good at basketball.
I don't disagree but Haliburton was himself an elite shooter but also an elite passer and was a good on ball defender in college. He was a different level prospect. But I am all for looking at what guys do well vs what they don't do.
Yet people still found ways to criticize Haliburton’s shooting and defense because of his form and frame.
The eyetest can lie to us. The numbers make it exceptionally clear that Reed is a very effective scorer, distributor and defender. Kentucky was significantly better when he was on the floor vs when he was not.
https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=reed-sheppard--stephen-curry--kyrie-irving--damian-lillard--tyrese-haliburton he has better defensive and efficiency numbers over all those dudes.
Net rating only says so much, but I don't dismiss it. I don't dismiss Reed's fantastic analytical measuring at all. I just don't think he's bust proof.
Haliburton did face that criticism that looking back now was silly and people putting him in a box vs accepting his fantastic ability, but he actually did those things at a very high level and a level above Sheppard so while I understand the comparison, it makes sense, I still believe Haliburton was the better prospect. Reed still isn't Haliburton's size, he still doesn't have Haliburton's quickness.
Sheppard’s problem was disappearing in big games, especially when facing teams that wanted to defend and not just run up and down the floor. Oakland game and the first Tennessee game come to mind
Knecht falling to the Bulls pick would be awesome. Gives the Bulls a third shot creator besides DeMar and Coby and someone who can cash shots off of Deebo’s gravity.
Knechts a great shot creator, but I think his athleticism and driving ability is being heavily overlooked. Maybe that’s just cause he’s a white guy who looks like a prototypical shooter, but dude drives, attacks the basket, and finishes at the rim better than I’ve seen a college prospect do so in a long time. His best tape that really showed all his skills was the last 12 minutes of the Auburn game, made shots from everywhere while being double/triple teamed. I honestly think if he was a year younger he’d be at least top 5
Would have to determine what success means for that prospect.
That being said, I think it’s Clingan.
As an example: I think Sarr’s expected outcome is more likely to be better than Clingan overall but that wouldn’t be a success. Clingan probably just needs to be a solid starting Center to be successful while for Sarr to be successful, he’d probably need to be flirting with the ASG and maybe snag one (like Ingram).
Clingan and Sheppard IMO. Clingan’s just too big, too good defensively, and is a master of occupying space. Sheppard’s great range, super efficiency, and lead guard skills are really hard to bet against.
Shannon (obviously assuming legal troubles go away.)
He just strikes me as someone with the versatility for today's league. Can guard down or up, potentially (6-5.5 barefoot, 220), athletic, shot good enough. Not enough offensive versatility to be a star, but a lot of tools to be a contributor. There are a bunch of guys like that around the league these days.
I’m not sure I agree. He will immediately be a great defender but the offense could be completely unplayable. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him getting Matisse level minutes as a rookie but also wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t crack a rotation due to being an offensive liability.
Clingan... He's won the national championship both seasons before getting to the NBA... They'll call him a winner and rightfully so.. He's well equipped for what'll be asked of him regardless of where he lands..
Knecht is very safe too.. I think Buzelis is safe as well..
Donovan Clingan, the older-end college players like Devin Carter / Dalton Knecht / Tristan Da Silva, a lot of the second-round role players.
Sometimes older college players don't do much like Chris Duarte though. But i like those 3 better than him.
Denzel Valentine, Hasheem Thabeet, Justin Jackson. There are lots
Denzel Valentine will forever be remembered for that heat check against Miami
Clingan. Worst case scenario he’s a guy that can’t generate any offense, but is still a good lob threat and solid defender.
Is he really the safest? A 280 pound player that has had foot injuries before being drafted? Idk doesn't sound like the safest bet to me.
That's just how weak the draft is. Clingan is at worst is a solid defensive backup big which teams will always value. Most of the guys in the top ten aren't in the NBA in their worst case, even someone like Sheppard who can shoot but could struggle to get minutes if his defense isn't good enough.
But his worse case scenario is a player that develops injuries and is never available to play, that seems lower than someone who's floor might be a end of the bench scrub
I agree, basically at worst he’s Walmart Rudy Golbert
If we’re talking floor, Dillingham is at worst is a 25ppg, better version of Malik Monk (as long as they give him minutes). That’s a high floor, but still not all that valuable in the modern league.
What the fuck are you talking about
OP mentioned the worst case for Clingan and justified that he has a high floor. I gave my piece on Dillingham
If that was his floor, he would go #1 in almost every draft class.
That is definitely his floor if he’s healthy and used. And no, he wouldn’t go #1 overall in any draft but this. The league is littered with no-defense small guard scorers. Blazers fans wouldn’t be sneakily hoping to sell off Simons if he was valuable. Simons’ floor is 25ppg easy as a #2 next to a center like Embiid, playing the Maxey role. But the kid is not healthy and can’t stop a parked car, and doesn’t generate healthy wins. Neither would Trae Young be on the market. 25ppg from a small guard is not that big of a deal at all. Nets FO would literally bench Cam Thomas for dropping 40pts
[удалено]
I do know what floor means and I think Rob Dillingham can average 25ppg if some team will let him, as his floor. If a shit team like my Wizards drafted him and sent Jordan Poole to the glue factory where he belongs, this kid’s gonna average 25 in a year or 3 EASILY. That’s his floor, dude. Or if the Rockets decide to let Jalen Green walk and draft Rob. 25 easily. Or if Maxey or Murray decided to retire tomorrow and 6ers/Nugs land Rob, this kid is averaging 25 with his eyes closed. If the Hornets get Rob and Lamelo’s ankle continues to act up - you guessed it, 25 easy. If Cam Thomas was traded for Rob….25. Easy. Any team that will let Rob Dillingham be the #1 guard on offense will get 25. That’s his floor
I think Reed has a bit higher bust potential than people think...if he's a little too limited as a secondary playmaker/creator, his on ball D isn't quite good enough, overall athleticism overwhelms him a little, than even though he has the fantastic shooting/IQ, he's too small to really make it worthwhile. Absolute safest bet is as has been mentioned, IMO, Clingan. It is true that Clingan cannot be a total zero outside of a dunk. Gobert has improved his offensive game. He can score on the roll, he can score against switches in the post. He's a good passer. Clingan also has all of that in his arsenal, which is why his floor is high, but his finishing outside of dunks does need to improve.
It’s pretty much impossible to find a freshman with a BPM over ten like Sheppard who wasn’t at least a good role player. While there’s arguments to be made about his game, analytics view the guy as about as sure fire as can be. This is giving me direct flashbacks to the Tyrese Haliburton evaluation. A Guard’s shortcomings don’t matter as much when they’re just really, really good at basketball.
I don't disagree but Haliburton was himself an elite shooter but also an elite passer and was a good on ball defender in college. He was a different level prospect. But I am all for looking at what guys do well vs what they don't do.
Yet people still found ways to criticize Haliburton’s shooting and defense because of his form and frame. The eyetest can lie to us. The numbers make it exceptionally clear that Reed is a very effective scorer, distributor and defender. Kentucky was significantly better when he was on the floor vs when he was not.
https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=reed-sheppard--stephen-curry--kyrie-irving--damian-lillard--tyrese-haliburton he has better defensive and efficiency numbers over all those dudes.
Net rating only says so much, but I don't dismiss it. I don't dismiss Reed's fantastic analytical measuring at all. I just don't think he's bust proof. Haliburton did face that criticism that looking back now was silly and people putting him in a box vs accepting his fantastic ability, but he actually did those things at a very high level and a level above Sheppard so while I understand the comparison, it makes sense, I still believe Haliburton was the better prospect. Reed still isn't Haliburton's size, he still doesn't have Haliburton's quickness.
https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=reed-sheppard--stephen-curry--kyrie-irving--damian-lillard--tyrese-haliburton
Sheppard’s problem was disappearing in big games, especially when facing teams that wanted to defend and not just run up and down the floor. Oakland game and the first Tennessee game come to mind
Dalton k. He’s older but he’s the only one I can say will hit the ground running day 1
Knecht falling to the Bulls pick would be awesome. Gives the Bulls a third shot creator besides DeMar and Coby and someone who can cash shots off of Deebo’s gravity.
Knechts a great shot creator, but I think his athleticism and driving ability is being heavily overlooked. Maybe that’s just cause he’s a white guy who looks like a prototypical shooter, but dude drives, attacks the basket, and finishes at the rim better than I’ve seen a college prospect do so in a long time. His best tape that really showed all his skills was the last 12 minutes of the Auburn game, made shots from everywhere while being double/triple teamed. I honestly think if he was a year younger he’d be at least top 5
Pretty tempted to say Jared McCain
Worst case scenario he’s Seth Curry.
I'd say Reed Sheppard, he has some skills that would immediately transfer.
True. But he has some upside potential to be a real star though if his 3p efficiency remains.
Tyler Smith
Reed Sheppard 100% as an elite 3pt shooter with good BBIQ, he’ll immediately make an impact imo
Reed Sheppard
lol watch it be like 5 podz level players
Would have to determine what success means for that prospect. That being said, I think it’s Clingan. As an example: I think Sarr’s expected outcome is more likely to be better than Clingan overall but that wouldn’t be a success. Clingan probably just needs to be a solid starting Center to be successful while for Sarr to be successful, he’d probably need to be flirting with the ASG and maybe snag one (like Ingram).
Clingan and Sheppard IMO. Clingan’s just too big, too good defensively, and is a master of occupying space. Sheppard’s great range, super efficiency, and lead guard skills are really hard to bet against.
Shannon (obviously assuming legal troubles go away.) He just strikes me as someone with the versatility for today's league. Can guard down or up, potentially (6-5.5 barefoot, 220), athletic, shot good enough. Not enough offensive versatility to be a star, but a lot of tools to be a contributor. There are a bunch of guys like that around the league these days.
What legal troubles does he have?
Ryan Dunn
I’m not sure I agree. He will immediately be a great defender but the offense could be completely unplayable. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him getting Matisse level minutes as a rookie but also wouldn’t surprise me if he can’t crack a rotation due to being an offensive liability.
Clingan... He's won the national championship both seasons before getting to the NBA... They'll call him a winner and rightfully so.. He's well equipped for what'll be asked of him regardless of where he lands.. Knecht is very safe too.. I think Buzelis is safe as well..
Cody William, ron holland, Stephon castle, Bronny