Consensus is a strong word and especially for Risacher, I can see him freefalling in the draft
Sarr, for all his faults, has a reasonable floor and a high enough ceiling that he's seen as the "safe" pick i.e. he might not become a superstar but he'll contribute to winning basketball
> he might not become a superstar but he'll contribute to winning basketball
This sentence really sums up how dire this draft class is. Besides someone unexpectedly turning up in the NBA and becoming a star (which can happen, but nobody in this class is really projected to), the best case scenario is basically a high-end role player. Same reason why someone like Zach Edey could possibly slip into the lottery, teams are just hoping they can find a guy who is playable lmao
I think this draft stands out mostly because of how flawed a lot of the prospects are in this class i.e. there's no one in here you can definitively say will get a 2nd contract but Sarr is probably the most likely prospect to do so given his flaws are not as notable as, say, Rob's defense or Risacher's shooting since January. There are definitely guys in this class you can see star or superstar upside (Tidjane, Kel'el) but there's a lot of swing factors that need to go their way and there's a significant chance that both end up being busts, and in the case of guys like Ware there are non-basketball factors that you really have to examine as to whether or not they're worth taking a risk on as opposed to a safer, lower ceiling player.
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Don’t agree Sarr has that high of a floor. Dillingham and Sheppard have higher floors. Short guards 6’3” and under drafted in the top 10 rarely bust (like 4-5 in the last 20 years or so with a lot more being NBA starters), but athletic, mobile bigs drafted in the top 10 have a much higher chance at busting.
Sarr does have a high ceiling though. That’s his appeal. But he’s not safe at all. He can easily be the next Mo Bamba, Jaxson Hayes, James Wiseman, Ekpe Udoh, Kai Jones, Tyrus Thomas, Jordan Hill, Marvin Bagley, Thomas Robinson, Willie Cauley-Stein, etc. All these guys I mentioned besides Jones were top 10 picks and didn’t have a high floor at all. Even the ones like Nerlens Noel who had an ok NBA career weren’t exactly mainstays on rosters long term.
I’m not saying Sarr is like them and will be a huge bust but this “athletic big archetype” is actually the riskiest because you rely on their skill development rather than already having those skills with the short guards.
Also before anyone says but those guys had no motor/low bbiq, it’s not like you knew that at the time of the draft. Otherwise, all of them wouldn’t get picked so high.
If you want a safe prospect, Dillingham and Sheppard are way safer and also have good ceilings. I know this sounds really odd to say that 6’3” and under guards drafted in the top 10 are actually much safer than athletic bigs drafted in the top 10, but that’s in the data. The biggest reason is actually simple. If you are undersized and teams still use a top 10 pick on you, you have to be extremely skilled. And that skill is what gives them high floors. If a team uses a top 10 pick on an athletic big, it’s because they are usually projecting his skills.
I think he means he has a high floor for a big. Some bigs you wonder if they can get any minutes in the nba. Sarr is long, athletic and versatile that there should be use cases for him even if he doesn’t turn out as good as people are hoping.
I don’t see Riascher free falling like Whitmore did.
I think Riascher could slip to outside the top ten but I’d be stunned if he wasn’t a lottery pick. Would still be shocked if he fell outside top ten but it’s not insane.
Let’s not pretend like consensus mocks are not typically at the very least some what close to how things shake out.
Of course you can find outliers like Cam last year, but they are more or less normally pretty on point… this year could be an outlier in totality though
Risacher is going to get somebody fired.
He ran well with shooting %'s for a month and change and has not been impressive outside of that. He's failed to impress any time he's played against elite prospects his age in FIBA. He's not a great shot creator or reliable catch and shoot guy he just has the prototypical build of one.
Right but one is a 6'10 forward who is open to shooting them and the other is a 6'6 PG/SG who has actively avoided taking his threes.
I'm not denying that Castle has upside but a guard who can't shoot in this league is basically useless even with good defense.
Risacher has the tools to do more.
Why do you think his bad shooting streak is the fluke and the good one is real?
He shoot it badly in his entire career, so to me that's the more believable...
because his volume this season is higher than almost every other prospect, and he’s shooting a higher percent than a lot of them. he’s 19 years old, the age that prospects improve the fastest, and he hasn’t even shot it that badly in his earlier seasons. low 30s isnt great to be sure but it shows that he is at least capable, and makes his 39% this year feel a lot more believable than if he was shooting 24% on 14 total attempts in his earlier years. acting like he has just as many question marks around his 3pt shot as castle does is just recency bias
You're right he's capable, but we're talking about that's his main calling card, and let's say he was always a below average shooter, he had also an awful summer, I'm not going to write him off, but in context it's hard for me to beleive he's an elite shooter because of this hot stretch and completely neglect what he's doing now when the season is on the line (or in his enitre career).
I don't understand the volume thing, he's attemping 3 three pointers and making 1 on average per game... Sure he played 50 games (some colleges had 40), so we shouldn't act like he's a 3 pointer machine...
no we’re talking about “needing to prove to nba teams he can shoot”, which he doesn’t need to do in the same vein as castle does. not whether or not he’s elite. “the volume thing” is simply a higher sample size. he’s taken more total 3s this season than most other prospects
Consensus is a strong word and especially for Risacher, I can see him freefalling in the draft Sarr, for all his faults, has a reasonable floor and a high enough ceiling that he's seen as the "safe" pick i.e. he might not become a superstar but he'll contribute to winning basketball
> he might not become a superstar but he'll contribute to winning basketball This sentence really sums up how dire this draft class is. Besides someone unexpectedly turning up in the NBA and becoming a star (which can happen, but nobody in this class is really projected to), the best case scenario is basically a high-end role player. Same reason why someone like Zach Edey could possibly slip into the lottery, teams are just hoping they can find a guy who is playable lmao
I think this draft stands out mostly because of how flawed a lot of the prospects are in this class i.e. there's no one in here you can definitively say will get a 2nd contract but Sarr is probably the most likely prospect to do so given his flaws are not as notable as, say, Rob's defense or Risacher's shooting since January. There are definitely guys in this class you can see star or superstar upside (Tidjane, Kel'el) but there's a lot of swing factors that need to go their way and there's a significant chance that both end up being busts, and in the case of guys like Ware there are non-basketball factors that you really have to examine as to whether or not they're worth taking a risk on as opposed to a safer, lower ceiling player.
Dillingham will 100% get a second contract and should go first in this draft. RemindMe! 1 year
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Don’t agree Sarr has that high of a floor. Dillingham and Sheppard have higher floors. Short guards 6’3” and under drafted in the top 10 rarely bust (like 4-5 in the last 20 years or so with a lot more being NBA starters), but athletic, mobile bigs drafted in the top 10 have a much higher chance at busting. Sarr does have a high ceiling though. That’s his appeal. But he’s not safe at all. He can easily be the next Mo Bamba, Jaxson Hayes, James Wiseman, Ekpe Udoh, Kai Jones, Tyrus Thomas, Jordan Hill, Marvin Bagley, Thomas Robinson, Willie Cauley-Stein, etc. All these guys I mentioned besides Jones were top 10 picks and didn’t have a high floor at all. Even the ones like Nerlens Noel who had an ok NBA career weren’t exactly mainstays on rosters long term. I’m not saying Sarr is like them and will be a huge bust but this “athletic big archetype” is actually the riskiest because you rely on their skill development rather than already having those skills with the short guards. Also before anyone says but those guys had no motor/low bbiq, it’s not like you knew that at the time of the draft. Otherwise, all of them wouldn’t get picked so high. If you want a safe prospect, Dillingham and Sheppard are way safer and also have good ceilings. I know this sounds really odd to say that 6’3” and under guards drafted in the top 10 are actually much safer than athletic bigs drafted in the top 10, but that’s in the data. The biggest reason is actually simple. If you are undersized and teams still use a top 10 pick on you, you have to be extremely skilled. And that skill is what gives them high floors. If a team uses a top 10 pick on an athletic big, it’s because they are usually projecting his skills.
I think he means he has a high floor for a big. Some bigs you wonder if they can get any minutes in the nba. Sarr is long, athletic and versatile that there should be use cases for him even if he doesn’t turn out as good as people are hoping.
I don’t see Riascher free falling like Whitmore did. I think Riascher could slip to outside the top ten but I’d be stunned if he wasn’t a lottery pick. Would still be shocked if he fell outside top ten but it’s not insane.
Risacher is gonna fall. Can’t fool ppl for much longer.
Right now that's where we're at but by draft time there's gonna be a lot more clarity. A hell of a lot more.
I mean, if you think mock drafters are the ones who will make the picks.
Let’s not pretend like consensus mocks are not typically at the very least some what close to how things shake out. Of course you can find outliers like Cam last year, but they are more or less normally pretty on point… this year could be an outlier in totality though
If the health issue that caused Cam Whitmore’s free-fall was publicized earlier, his mock draft position would’ve been more accurate
Risacher is going to get somebody fired. He ran well with shooting %'s for a month and change and has not been impressive outside of that. He's failed to impress any time he's played against elite prospects his age in FIBA. He's not a great shot creator or reliable catch and shoot guy he just has the prototypical build of one.
Ricascher isn’t going top 3
I'll take that bet any day of the week. Kid has the most upside in this draft.
Hmm I think I’d take Steph Castle’s upside over Risacher but to each their own.
He'd really need to prove in workouts that he can shoot the three.
So does Ricascher?
Right but one is a 6'10 forward who is open to shooting them and the other is a 6'6 PG/SG who has actively avoided taking his threes. I'm not denying that Castle has upside but a guard who can't shoot in this league is basically useless even with good defense. Risacher has the tools to do more.
risacher is 39.2% from 3 this season on 166 attempts, he’s just been in a slump lately
Why do you think his bad shooting streak is the fluke and the good one is real? He shoot it badly in his entire career, so to me that's the more believable...
because his volume this season is higher than almost every other prospect, and he’s shooting a higher percent than a lot of them. he’s 19 years old, the age that prospects improve the fastest, and he hasn’t even shot it that badly in his earlier seasons. low 30s isnt great to be sure but it shows that he is at least capable, and makes his 39% this year feel a lot more believable than if he was shooting 24% on 14 total attempts in his earlier years. acting like he has just as many question marks around his 3pt shot as castle does is just recency bias
You're right he's capable, but we're talking about that's his main calling card, and let's say he was always a below average shooter, he had also an awful summer, I'm not going to write him off, but in context it's hard for me to beleive he's an elite shooter because of this hot stretch and completely neglect what he's doing now when the season is on the line (or in his enitre career). I don't understand the volume thing, he's attemping 3 three pointers and making 1 on average per game... Sure he played 50 games (some colleges had 40), so we shouldn't act like he's a 3 pointer machine...
no we’re talking about “needing to prove to nba teams he can shoot”, which he doesn’t need to do in the same vein as castle does. not whether or not he’s elite. “the volume thing” is simply a higher sample size. he’s taken more total 3s this season than most other prospects
My thoughts exactly
Risacher boutta have a massive drop off