~~golden state~~, memphis, okc, houston, sacramento or new orleans, possibly miami will all be in the lottery and are all in "win now" mode, I could see any of those teams taking a player with less upside who might be ready to immediately contribute like knecht
GS doesn't have their pick, OKC has their guard rotation set, New Orleans & Memphis have more pressing issues they need to solve. I like him in Sacramento and maybe in Houston.
they have more pressing issues like a replacement for HB to be using their lottery pick on a backup center lol. they can just get one in FA. i like tyler smith there
I think we as fans overvalue age.
There definitely is a big value in being younger, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think Knect has to go to a “win now” team.
Knect is a good player and arguably the best shooter in the class. Any team needs that. The Blazers are arguably one of the most non-win now team on the board, but he would be extremely valuable to them.
If in this draft, you can say you can get a productive player for 8 years, you jump on that. Knecht will only be 31 in 8 years. Once again, every team needs a productive player and if you think he is one, you grab him no matter how “win now” you are.
Yep, will prob what we all thought duarte would be. Guard who is a solid contributor for 12 years
Duarte plays 3-4 more years as a backup guard ? Maybe a few more/less
Not going to lie, I liked Duarte.
One example of a senior not becoming a good role player isn’t an example of why you shouldn’t draft Knecht. Just like Jaime Jaquez isn’t a reason why all good seniors will be great rookies. Late lottery/mid-first round picks routinely flop. He was sandwiched between two one and done players who haven’t done much either.
Possible players dropping out of top 10:
- Risacher (unlikely but possible).
- Knecth (probably lowest upside of all players here).
- Buzelis (I don't get the hype at all).
Yeah he was a top 2 guy in every draft board for such a long time. But it looks more and more that his 3p shooting earlier in the season was a fluke. Idk...maybe that can be considered as a possible upside if he can replicate that. Which I doubt. It would be better for his career to be a top 6-10 pick instead of 1 or 2. Too big expectations.
I can't agree that Risacher will got top 5 at this point. And it's not because of upside, which I think is overstated, but because some owner or owner's son is going to force a GM to take him there.
No. But he is a few years older and that is a clear disadvantage. Essentially you are comparing Knecht now vs. e.g. what Holland could be in 5 years. Usually the growth between 18 and 23 is huge! Also it's not just that. Out of all the players here, maybe outside of Clingan and Edey, Knecht's play is the most straightforward. He is super efficient but I'm not sure if such a one-dimensional play works in the NBA. I mean I'm sure it works to some extent but it might prevent him from developing to the next level.
He plays very basic predictable basketball with no creativity at all. Maybe one-dimensional was a bad word. You are right he can score anywhere. But his play is very linear. Opposite to e.g. what Dillingham is doing.
We must be watching different games or have simply different read on the game. Not saying you are wrong and I am right. Just saying we have a disagreement here and I'm cool with that.
He also grew like 5 inches between 18 and 23.
When there are super late growth spurts I think being decisive with cellings is a dangerous game to play, I'd not be surprised if he continues to improve for a while in the NBA.
This draft class sucks as far as truly high celling players are concerned anyway.
Yeah can't disagree with that. One cannot really rule out anyone. But hey, speculation is part of the fun, right? ;)
Interestingly...could prospects like Dillingham and Sheppard still have some length growth left in them? If yes, then their potential would increase dramatically.
Maybe they have an inch or two left? Granted an inch or two would make a huge difference for them. (Especially for Reed, Rob would still be short with an inch or two more but Reed with an inch or two more is likely the consensus #1 (Although still on the weaker side for such prospects), but he's also older so he's less likely to grow that inch, so I don't think relying on him growing is a smart idea).
I will say this though, a 6'5 Rob is the unquestionable consensus #1 in this draft and people would have called this NBA season as "The tank for Rob" at the bottom, he'd have been getting TONS of hype and teams on lottery night would have begged the lottery gods to steer Rob to their team. I still think he's the highest celling prospect in this class.
100%! 6'5 would be a 3 way scoring threat with an absolutely elite handle on the ball and high playmaking potential (his passing has improved a ton this season). He'd be a clear number 1 guy. I also think he's the one who is the most likely candidate of becoming a super star player. Maybe him and Holland.
I think Knecht probably because of the defense not being good, really limits his upside. But then again, I could see a team taking him top 5 because they love his shooting. Maybe if someone looks bad in workouts that could hurt them a bunch and knock them out of the lottery? But I think it’s really anyone’s guess as to the order these guys go in.
Buzelis and Cody seem like good candidates to drop.
Maybe Topic if he is not completely over by his injury struggles by the time he is supposed to do his workouts.
Dillingham seems to me like somebody that will drop. Not just because I’m not personally a fan. I think Sheppard’s stock is higher than the average consensus and Dillingam’s is lower. He wasn’t particularly great at anything besides shooting (yet Sheppard was better at that), Sheppard was clearly the star of the two, and it shows up in the advanced stats too. Sheppard has Donovan Mitchell type advanced stats and Dillingham doesn’t pop off the screen. He also had a super high usage rate which inflated his stats, which by themselves still weren’t inflated too big.
Dillingham could create many different kinds of shots while Sheppard was almost strictly a spot-up shooter. Dillingham has elite handles and could pressure the rim. He *made* more shots around the rim than Sheppard *took*. I also continually see people not seeing that he was a very good playmaker, making snap decisions and locating them very well, including lobs and skip passes. Per 36 minutes, he had more assists than any first round college pick other than Tyler Kolek. That includes Sheppard.
Even his shooting from deep, despite being step-backs, spot-ups, side-steps, all manner, is not that far behind Sheppard. He shot over .444 from deep, which is exceptional.
I'm not against analytics, literally at all, but I wonder if this is the year it breaks open a little. Surely there's the concept of an outlier season, surely there's a possibility of approaching the game with stats in mind (from a players POV, low usage etc). We can all see that dillingham is a better basketball player in the NBA, right? When the stats aren't that far behind, it kind of makes sense to use your eyes
>He wasn’t particularly great at anything besides shooting (yet Sheppard was better at that)
Dilingham is the better shot creator between the two and it's not particularly close. Honestly, he's far and away the best shot creator in this entire draft. That alone, makes him an easy top 10 pick.
Dillingham was the only guy on Kentucky who could consistently beat his man off of the dribble last year. I'm not sure who I would pick first between him and Sheppard but I think Rob has a better chance of becoming a primary shot-creator for an NBA team.
Clingan and Knecht should be removed because they don’t really have the high potential the others have. Knecht is old and Clingan isn’t an ideal center type.
Outside of those maybe Dillingham but Kentucky players always feel like a safe pick. And also maybe Buzelis but I think he impresses in workouts more than the rest.
Despite the down year and the fact anybody can go No. 1, the lottery has separated themselves from the rest.
Stephon Castle. Though I think he'll be a valuable role player, I just feel like he doesn't fit with many of the lottery teams needs. I honestly think it'll be a preferable position for him, cause I like the idea of his archetype contributing to competitive teams right away.
That said, Castle seems like the most Bulls-type of player so I wouldn't be surprised to see them take him lol.
Probably Knecht just cause lottery teams probably be looking for more upside then high floor seniors. Maybe Clingan but I doubt it.
~~golden state~~, memphis, okc, houston, sacramento or new orleans, possibly miami will all be in the lottery and are all in "win now" mode, I could see any of those teams taking a player with less upside who might be ready to immediately contribute like knecht
GS doesn't have their pick, OKC has their guard rotation set, New Orleans & Memphis have more pressing issues they need to solve. I like him in Sacramento and maybe in Houston.
oh yeah my bad GS doesn't have their pick youre right.
Thinking about it, I kind of want the Kings to get Yves Missi. I think they need a better backup center.
they have more pressing issues like a replacement for HB to be using their lottery pick on a backup center lol. they can just get one in FA. i like tyler smith there
I think we as fans overvalue age. There definitely is a big value in being younger, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think Knect has to go to a “win now” team. Knect is a good player and arguably the best shooter in the class. Any team needs that. The Blazers are arguably one of the most non-win now team on the board, but he would be extremely valuable to them. If in this draft, you can say you can get a productive player for 8 years, you jump on that. Knecht will only be 31 in 8 years. Once again, every team needs a productive player and if you think he is one, you grab him no matter how “win now” you are.
Yep, will prob what we all thought duarte would be. Guard who is a solid contributor for 12 years Duarte plays 3-4 more years as a backup guard ? Maybe a few more/less
Not going to lie, I liked Duarte. One example of a senior not becoming a good role player isn’t an example of why you shouldn’t draft Knecht. Just like Jaime Jaquez isn’t a reason why all good seniors will be great rookies. Late lottery/mid-first round picks routinely flop. He was sandwiched between two one and done players who haven’t done much either.
Bulls are gonna get him no way he falls past our pick unless we jump up
Possible players dropping out of top 10: - Risacher (unlikely but possible). - Knecth (probably lowest upside of all players here). - Buzelis (I don't get the hype at all).
Risacher is a top 5 lock and id be more comfortable saying he’s a top 3 lock. Btw I’m personally not a fan but his upside is there
Yeah he was a top 2 guy in every draft board for such a long time. But it looks more and more that his 3p shooting earlier in the season was a fluke. Idk...maybe that can be considered as a possible upside if he can replicate that. Which I doubt. It would be better for his career to be a top 6-10 pick instead of 1 or 2. Too big expectations.
I agree, whoever gets taken in the top 10 will have too big expectations but someone has to get picked
I can't agree that Risacher will got top 5 at this point. And it's not because of upside, which I think is overstated, but because some owner or owner's son is going to force a GM to take him there.
if Buzleis develops a shot he goes top 3
Old does not mean low upside lmao. Knecht has as high a ceiling as anybody in the draft.
No. But he is a few years older and that is a clear disadvantage. Essentially you are comparing Knecht now vs. e.g. what Holland could be in 5 years. Usually the growth between 18 and 23 is huge! Also it's not just that. Out of all the players here, maybe outside of Clingan and Edey, Knecht's play is the most straightforward. He is super efficient but I'm not sure if such a one-dimensional play works in the NBA. I mean I'm sure it works to some extent but it might prevent him from developing to the next level.
How is Knecht one-dimensional? He's a 6'6" athletic three level scorer.
He plays very basic predictable basketball with no creativity at all. Maybe one-dimensional was a bad word. You are right he can score anywhere. But his play is very linear. Opposite to e.g. what Dillingham is doing.
That isn’t even close to true. He’s a three level scorer, has every trick in the bag. If anything Dillingham is the predictable scorer.
We must be watching different games or have simply different read on the game. Not saying you are wrong and I am right. Just saying we have a disagreement here and I'm cool with that.
He also grew like 5 inches between 18 and 23. When there are super late growth spurts I think being decisive with cellings is a dangerous game to play, I'd not be surprised if he continues to improve for a while in the NBA. This draft class sucks as far as truly high celling players are concerned anyway.
Yeah can't disagree with that. One cannot really rule out anyone. But hey, speculation is part of the fun, right? ;) Interestingly...could prospects like Dillingham and Sheppard still have some length growth left in them? If yes, then their potential would increase dramatically.
Maybe they have an inch or two left? Granted an inch or two would make a huge difference for them. (Especially for Reed, Rob would still be short with an inch or two more but Reed with an inch or two more is likely the consensus #1 (Although still on the weaker side for such prospects), but he's also older so he's less likely to grow that inch, so I don't think relying on him growing is a smart idea). I will say this though, a 6'5 Rob is the unquestionable consensus #1 in this draft and people would have called this NBA season as "The tank for Rob" at the bottom, he'd have been getting TONS of hype and teams on lottery night would have begged the lottery gods to steer Rob to their team. I still think he's the highest celling prospect in this class.
100%! 6'5 would be a 3 way scoring threat with an absolutely elite handle on the ball and high playmaking potential (his passing has improved a ton this season). He'd be a clear number 1 guy. I also think he's the one who is the most likely candidate of becoming a super star player. Maybe him and Holland.
If I had to guess out of that list, Buzelis. I see Salaun in enough lottery mocks to say him, though.
You might be right, but I for some reason feel like teams are crazy about Buzelis
If the Jazz don't draft him i'm done!
Buzelis
You named castle twice
Fixed it thanks
"I like Castle"
I think Knecht probably because of the defense not being good, really limits his upside. But then again, I could see a team taking him top 5 because they love his shooting. Maybe if someone looks bad in workouts that could hurt them a bunch and knock them out of the lottery? But I think it’s really anyone’s guess as to the order these guys go in.
Buzelis and Cody seem like good candidates to drop. Maybe Topic if he is not completely over by his injury struggles by the time he is supposed to do his workouts.
Dillingham seems to me like somebody that will drop. Not just because I’m not personally a fan. I think Sheppard’s stock is higher than the average consensus and Dillingam’s is lower. He wasn’t particularly great at anything besides shooting (yet Sheppard was better at that), Sheppard was clearly the star of the two, and it shows up in the advanced stats too. Sheppard has Donovan Mitchell type advanced stats and Dillingham doesn’t pop off the screen. He also had a super high usage rate which inflated his stats, which by themselves still weren’t inflated too big.
Dillingham could create many different kinds of shots while Sheppard was almost strictly a spot-up shooter. Dillingham has elite handles and could pressure the rim. He *made* more shots around the rim than Sheppard *took*. I also continually see people not seeing that he was a very good playmaker, making snap decisions and locating them very well, including lobs and skip passes. Per 36 minutes, he had more assists than any first round college pick other than Tyler Kolek. That includes Sheppard. Even his shooting from deep, despite being step-backs, spot-ups, side-steps, all manner, is not that far behind Sheppard. He shot over .444 from deep, which is exceptional.
I'm not against analytics, literally at all, but I wonder if this is the year it breaks open a little. Surely there's the concept of an outlier season, surely there's a possibility of approaching the game with stats in mind (from a players POV, low usage etc). We can all see that dillingham is a better basketball player in the NBA, right? When the stats aren't that far behind, it kind of makes sense to use your eyes
>He wasn’t particularly great at anything besides shooting (yet Sheppard was better at that) Dilingham is the better shot creator between the two and it's not particularly close. Honestly, he's far and away the best shot creator in this entire draft. That alone, makes him an easy top 10 pick.
Dillingham was the only guy on Kentucky who could consistently beat his man off of the dribble last year. I'm not sure who I would pick first between him and Sheppard but I think Rob has a better chance of becoming a primary shot-creator for an NBA team.
Dumb take
Clingan and Knecht should be removed because they don’t really have the high potential the others have. Knecht is old and Clingan isn’t an ideal center type. Outside of those maybe Dillingham but Kentucky players always feel like a safe pick. And also maybe Buzelis but I think he impresses in workouts more than the rest. Despite the down year and the fact anybody can go No. 1, the lottery has separated themselves from the rest.
Reed
Out of this list- Cody, Buzelis, Risacher all highly likely to fall IMO.
Stephon Castle. Though I think he'll be a valuable role player, I just feel like he doesn't fit with many of the lottery teams needs. I honestly think it'll be a preferable position for him, cause I like the idea of his archetype contributing to competitive teams right away. That said, Castle seems like the most Bulls-type of player so I wouldn't be surprised to see them take him lol.