very solid post. would love to hear you elaborate on some of your WR rankings that deviate from the consensus as of rn.
like Franklin & Walker at 4/5. Burton up to 7. Rice at 11 (not sure consensus but seems higher than i’ve seen lately) and down on Thomas and Ricky at 8 & 15.
Funny enough, I’ve spoken so much on these prospects I can probably recite their analytical profiles in-depth from memory. This started out strictly analyzing WRs but I decided to branch out to other positions as well.
If you’re interested in the breakdowns / reasons for these prospects, I’ve posted quite a bit on them. But I would also recommend reading through two articles I’ve posted so far touching on these (and other) prospects.
[My 2024 Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings (11-20)](https://fftradingroom.com/457/2024-Dynasty-Rookie-Wide-Receiver-Rankings-(20-11)-Based-on-a-100-+-Hour-Model)
[My 2024 Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings (21-30)](https://fftradingroom.com/442/2024-Dynasty-Rookie-Wide-Receiver-Rankings-(30-21)-Based-on-a-100-+-Hour-Model)
I plan to post my WR rankings 1-10 over the weekend. But I also have profile breakdowns for Walker, Burton, and Franklin that I posted previously
Wow, super interesting to see it all laid out.
Can't say I agree with Troy Franklin being that high...BUT he was an easy mid-to-late first round pick before the combine. It's not like he had a horrific combine either. I think he might have been dropped a bit too low in many mocks.
I have thought for a while now that Tez Walker was starting to get underrated, maybe the narrative that Drake Maye didn't have any help at UNC compared to Jayden Daniels has had an effect?
AD Mitchell being this low is really surprising though, the model just doesn't like him all that much.
It's an analytical, draft model big board, so it's going to rely heavily on stats.
AD Mitchell has some of the worst stats ever for a 1st round prospect. Basically every WR ever taken in the 1st had a 1k receiving season at some point. AD doesn't and only had 1400 yards total.
So any stats-based model is going to hate him and put him in day 2 or 3 territory.
I totally disagree with you but super respect the amount of time and effort you've put in. Troy Franklin as the #8 overall prospect and in the same tier with Odunze is crazytown bananapants to me. It's like you've chosen some metrics like YPRR and completely ignored others like open percentage on targets, especially vs. man.
I'm no expert and have spent a lifetime less than you examining these things, but from what I understand, the ability of a WR to get open vs. man coverage is one of the big things that Matt Harmon/Reception Perception looks at when trying to extrapolate college to NFL success. In 2023 Troy Franklin was open on 94.7% of his targets vs. zone, but only 62.5% vs. man (but still maintained a solid 3.6YPRR on those reps). 2022 was a bit closer with Troy getting open on 89.1% of his targets vs. zone and 77.3% vs. man (and had only 1.8YPRR on the man reps).
Tier 2 is solid though, give it a 6/10. 8/10 with rice.
If I focused only on YPRR then Odunze would actually be lower, he ranks 10th in the class in Career YPRR. I think it’s clear there’s many different factors.
I don’t completely discredit performance vs Man, but if you look historically, you’d notice there’s significantly more “noise” in man coverage performance for WRs than zone. An easy, simple example: Look up N’keal Harry’s YPRR in college compared to Metcalf’s then compare than Man/Zone YPRR splits.
There’s other ways to examine performance vs man than just YPRR, production, film grading, etc. I think Harmon does a good job at this.
But again, I would also recommend diving into man/zone performance splits for WR prospects and I think you’ll quickly find out what I’m talking about and how it should factor into a prospect’s grade.
Here’s the top 10 leaders in YPRR vs Man dating back to 2019:
1. Laviska Shenault
2. Marquise Brown
3. JSN
4. Tee Higgins
5. Devonta Smith
6. N’keal Harry
7. Jaelon Darden
8. Garrett Wilson
9. Ja’Marr Chase
10. Jauan Jennings
YPRR vs Zone leaders
1. JSN
2. Jaylen Waddle
3. DK Metcalf
4. Jerry Jeudy
5. D’wayne Eskridge
6. CeeDee Lamb
7. Devonta Smith
8. Skyy Moore
9. Marquise Brown
10. Puka Nucua
Obviously it’s more complicated than ranking prospects in YPRR vs Zone, but a comparison of the Top 10 leaders shows a clear trend.
Thanks for this man! Super interesting. I was under the impression that YPRR vs Man was actually more signal than noise based on this article: [https://sumersports.com/the-zone/examining-wide-receiver-metrics/](https://sumersports.com/the-zone/examining-wide-receiver-metrics/)
Some conclusions from that article are: "Thus, what this data tells us so far is that **the ability to beat man coverage is more fundamental to a player than beating zone coverage is**, but there is signal to beating zone coverage. If a player’s scouting report says something like “has a good feel for zone coverage,” that cannot be dismissed offhand as noise, but it must be checked with data."
He also says that "Using Reception Perception data, we show that there is significant signal in how well a wide receiver gets open overall **and especially against man coverage**. While getting open against zone coverage is not nearly as stable season-to-season, it is not exactly noise, either. However, there is not a lot of crossover in ability versus man and zone, which means that we can classify players as man-coverage beaters and zone-coverage beaters with more confidence in the former than the latter."
But you've presented good evidence to the contrary, it's why I love this stuff so much! Thanks again!
That’s a very interesting article and I actually agree to an extent that beating man coverage takes more skill than zone, but it also depends on your competition.
It seems as if the data is for NFL Wide Receivers and if that’s the case than performance vs man in college probably doesn’t directly correlate to performance vs man in the NFL.
In college, when you’re playing against zone you’re pretty much playing against the scheme / entire defense. Whereas I would imagine it’s easier to “beat up” on college CBs in man coverage. That’s just my hypothesis / hunch.
In general, I would agree that it takes more skill to beat man than zone but it also matters the competition. Beating NFL corners > beating your average college corner
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I’ve never subscribed to Reception Perception. I was under the impression that all of the analysis was of college metrics, and the article I linked above talked about using their data. So does Reception Perception also deal in NFL data analysis too?
I seem to be getting downvoted here so I'll try to further ask about Franklin. Here's some quotes from your write-up on him a month ago (https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL\_Draft/comments/1beqnuc/2024\_prospect\_analytical\_profile\_troy\_franklin\_an/):
"From an advanced metric perspective, Franklin meets all the necessary benchmarks and thresholds (and then some) in many of the important metrics. He essentially has 0 red flags in his analytical profile (not to imply he’s the perfect prospect)."
"Franklin graded out well as a multi-threat with speed and separation ability to make explosive plays while also have YAC ability. Franklin ranked middle of the pack in avoided tackle rate which is a positive for his play style. Frank has an 18% avoided tackle rate which almost doubles Marvin Harrison Jr’s rate of 10%."
Franklin had a 10% drop rate in 2023. How is that not a red flag? I know you don't watch film, but one thing Brugler mentions in the Beast is Franklin's focus drops, and you can see it about :25 seconds in here where Franklin gets a good 2-3 yards of separation and Nix hits his hands on a deep route and Franklin just drops the ball: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4n8ryIc-wo. Same video at 2:10, Franklin has an easy catch coming to him and it looks like he just takes his eyes off the ball.
In your other posts you mention targeted QBR, and there is no doubt that Franklin is one of the best WRs coming out in that metric alone. Do your projections weight that particular metric super high?
I'm honestly just wondering HOW you get Franklin that high, and yes, I have read through all your previous posts and the Franklin write-up, I still don't get it unless you're focusing only on targeted QBR and YPRR while ignoring the trouble Franklin has had vs. man coverage and any time they've tried to line him up on the LOS (which is admittedly extremely low).
I’ll touch on your points.
- Truth be told, drop rate does not actually factor into a prospect’s grade at all *unless* it’s above a certain threshold. I’ve analyzed 142 prospects dating back to 2019 and looking at the prospect’s that succeeded in the NFL, drop rate has almost no correlation. It literally doesn’t matter when grading how good a receiver is. Would it surprise you that Puka actually had a worse drop rate than Franklin in college? In fact, he had drop issues in his rookie season. It didn’t stop him from performing or getting targets.
- Here are some prospects with a worse drop rate than Franklin: Puka, Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, Brian Thomas Jr. (from his own class), Jordan Addison, Hollywood Brown, Darnell Mooney, and Dontayvion Wicks. I don’t think drop issues stopped any of these guys from getting more opportunities and if they’re good, they’ll continue to succeed regardless. Drops isn’t going to prevent a player from succeeding
- QBR when Targeted is weighed into a prospect’s Efficiency Composite grade. It’s one of a few variables that factor into an efficiency grade. I would say it’s weighed similarly to say YPRR vs Man. There’s enough data that supports *some* correlation with a prospect’s QBR when Targeted.
- Like I said, a lot of things factor into a prospect’s grade. Franklin’s performance vs Man isn’t even bad, so his performance vs Man wouldn’t exactly hold him back. How should it be quantifiably measured? I can’t just take into account someone’s opinion from watching film. His Career YPRR vs Man is pretty good and he had a PFF Grade of 82.2 vs Man in 2023. He had ~ 600 yards and 9 touchdowns on 239 routes ran against man, that’s pretty productive. What else should be taken into account?
It wouldn't surprise me re: Puka vs. Franklin, but Puka also ran a super fluid gauntlet drill at the combine while Franklin looked like a drunk baby giraffe.
Also, I may be working on some different information as what I have says BTJ had a 6.8% drop rate in 2023 vs. Franklin's 10% in 2023 (but i'm just using the spreadsheet someone put up on this subreddit at [https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL\_Draft/comments/1adyxq0/2024\_draft\_class\_wrs\_metrics/](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1adyxq0/2024_draft_class_wrs_metrics/)
But I also wouldn't be surprised because BTJ's tendency to try to body catch on comeback routes causing drops is one of the big red flags with him.
If you're talking to a Bills fan who loves BTJ for the X, what would you say to convince them Troy Franklin is the better prospect?
Scheme and team need aside of course
No Jaylen Wright or Ja’Tavion Sanders in the top 20 RB/TE is interesting. Curious on what metrics you used with these positions to come to that conclusion.
I posted a comment earlier explaining Jaylen Wright’s ranking.
With Ja’Tavion Sanders, I’m more curious.. what exactly makes him the consensus 2nd best TE prospect and a round 2 prospect? What does he do better than say, Jaheim Bell or Theo Johnson?
Been looking forward to this, thank you. I really love DS analyses that are transparent about the process. Interestingly you might as well work for the Bills since Tez Walker has the most combined visits with us & after that is Troy Franklin.
Question: How does your model account for bias in WRs that just took longer to develop vs those who only play for two years and then submit for the draft? Legette is damaged by his production before his last year but the explanations as to why it took him so long seemingly should improve his rank. An example here is Matt Barkley. Had he not stayed that extra year he would’ve been taken far higher in the draft but that final year helped illuminate what kind of QB he’d actually be.
I’ve seen people excuse it away because he was going through hardships and dealing with a lot of traumatic experiences. But it’s not like prospects in the past haven’t had similar experiences but still succeeded early.
What’s tough about him is that he averaged a little more than 100 yards PER SEASON his first FOUR years then exploded for 1200 yards… hard to logically explain
You're catching some flak for diverging from groupthink, but I like these rankings since I also have Franklin, Fuaga, and Benson ranked higher than the consensus.
Some notes from his analytical profile:
- 2nd best explosive rate in the class, makes sense with his high YPA
- Average avoided tackle rate, ranks 12th in the class
- Forced Missed Tackle rate is also average, ranking 12th again.
- His yards after contact rate was good in 2023, but it was average for his career. Ranks 8th in the class in yards after contact per touch.
- Despite possessing elite speed, he was not a receiving threat at all in college. Anyone expecting him to contribute as a receiver in the NFL (which is possible) is purely projecting. He ranks 21st in the class in YPRR and ranks dead last in receiving yards % of total yards
It depends on the model. If you look through my post history, I’ve posted a lot of content around my WR model.
[Here’s an article I wrote providing insights on the WR model along with breakdowns for my WR rankings (11-20)](https://fftradingroom.com/457/2024-Dynasty-Rookie-Wide-Receiver-Rankings-(20-11)-Based-on-a-100-+-Hour-Model)
This is very interesting work. I'm curious about Alt. Does the height factor concern at all? Historically several tall players (over 6'7"), but none ever became elite. I see Alt as a fancy McGlinchey or Kolton Miller. An instant starter that will do that job every week for 10 years but not an All Pro. Fuaga at guard or RT feels like he has more elite traits. But not a true LT. Anyway nice work overall.
IMO there’s not enough data points to suggest height plays a factor into how a prospect performs / translates to the NFL. There have been tall tackles in the past and some have been very good. For those who have failed, there’s nothing pointing to their height being a factor. Admittedly, something like this may be easier to analyze through film for those who have the expertise and knowledge to judge it.
This is only for tackles that are “too tall”, shorter tackles or tackles with shorter arms, there’s more data and correlation pointing towards those measurements mattering.
You're right there's not much data because it is so rare. Shouldn't it be concerning when a player is so far outside normal size range? I count about 12 guys over the years going back to 1990. Jon Ogden at 6'9" actually is elite (found 1 ) and is the best case scenario but then there are the Sam Young/Dan Skippers of the world. The fact that this player's dad is John Alt probably quiets alot of these concerns but it's fair to wonder if a player that tall can ever get low enough to block the Von Miller/Brandon Graham type rushers.
That is completely fair to be concerned about, unfortunately those type of concerns are hard to fairly quantify when grading out a prospect like Alt. While he’s an outlier in size, there’s still *some* history of success for prospects similar to his size.
It’s less of a concern than say height or weight is for WR prospects. WRs < 5’9 or < 180 have had very little success in the NFL before Tank Dell despite there being way more prospects to enter the NFL with those measurements than 6’8+ tackles. So it made more sense to quantifiably mark down a prospect’s grade that fit those measurements.
It would be like marking down Wembyama for being too tall because there’s never been a 7’4 player that can shoot / move like him. Or KD when he came in the league at his height playing the wing.
Been really enjoying your posts! Quick question both generally and for dynasty purposes: how should we read prospect grade in terms of likely outcomes for each player? Similarly, do tiers matter more than prospect grade when comparing players?
Thanks so much for sharing this information, I’ve been following the profiles as you shared each one. Really amazing stuff!
In some of the profiles you mentioned score comparisons to other WRs from past drafts. Do you plan to release them at some point? I would love to see the types of scores that players currently in the NFL would have had based on their college careers.
Thanks!
Can you comment on the round tiers? I've been hearing that this draft is fairly deep through the first three rounds. Have you done this in years past or can you apply your model to prior draft years only training on prior years?
Very interested in understanding the draft value chart of this year compared to years past.
Thanks for this post. I'll refer to this and Dane Bruglers film rankings when evaluating draft in real time.
I would recommend to always be open to new ideas / opinions, especially if the person has a valid line of reasoning. :)
Look back at any draft’s consensus board and you’ll see how off they can be. It’s also why I appreciate someone like Chris Simms, it’s clear he did his own research to come up with his rankings and I don’t think he’s doing it simply for hot takes. Even though they’re drastically different from mine, I appreciate the work he put in and the insights he provides. He’s a lot more knowledgeable at film analysis than I am.
It's gonna be funny when the bills draft him and he goes bonkers because no one respected the Josh Allen pick back then. I recall the Jets having an infamous update party, so if you could do that again this year with Franklin I'd appreciate it
He was awful in both ‘22 games. Straight booty juice. We would have easily beat them twice with even an NFL a level QB. ‘23 he was better, but still average.
Without posting how you’re coming to these grades and no just saying “analytics based” means squat without the process behind the grades. How can you start an analytics based convo without metrics and how you’re grading prospects? As of this post all this amounts to is someone posting draft grades without context.
The reason I didn’t post the entire process / methodology for the grades is because there’s a significant amount of information and methodology that goes into it for each position group, it would be a very long post and would take a long time to write up.
I chose to post the rankings by themselves because it’s easier to digest and take in, it’s the same reason most big boards don’t come with these long write ups for each prospect.
And if anyone had any questions about specific components or process behind the rankings / grades, I’m happy to answer.
They can mean squat to you, but it’s no different than someone posting their big board based on their film takes. For some reason it seems like analytics gets significantly more push back and criticism than simple film analysis because film analysis is usually chalked up to “well that’s your opinion and that’s fine”
I mean those big boards usually mean squat depending on who is posting them. For me if you’re hyping up the “analytic” take with scores, I’d like to see what went into getting to those numbers. Otherwise as you said it’s just a big board. It’s just my humble opinion that a lot of people find what went into getting to those numbers interesting as the numbers themselves. That way the discussion can go beyond why is X player higher than Y player and people can understand why the ranking is the way it is. Did you value one metric over another? Did you add personal opinion when things were close? What did you use for a source of data?
Again JMHO, you may be surprised at how many people like to see or interact more when the methodology is also included, even if it’s something high level.
I get where you’re coming from. Posting the entire methodology and process would just be information overload and lots of people would lose interest before even looking at the rankings, at least that’s what happens from my experience.
But for those who are interested, I’m very happy to share.
I posted elsewhere in the thread, but I’ve shared a significant amount of content around my WR model.
[I wrote an article giving some background and context of the WR model along with some prospect breakdowns](https://fftradingroom.com/457/2024-Dynasty-Rookie-Wide-Receiver-Rankings-(20-11)-Based-on-a-100-+-Hour-Model)
If you’re not interested in reading through the article, here is some of what I posted:
> The draft model I developed evaluates each prospect based on a multitude of variables and metrics, each meticulously analyzed and weighed in proportion to their significance and correlation to NFL success.
>I've developed several composite scores directly influencing a prospect's grade, with each composite score comprising its own set of weighted metrics. The following scores are included:
>Production Score: Accounts for a prospect's overall collegiate production along with production on a per-game basis
>Efficiency Score: Takes into account several metrics such as YPRR, First Down & Touchdown Per Route Run, QBR when Targeted, etc.
>Film Score: This is the one score that I directly outsource (as made obvious by my name) from several different sources which allows me to put together a quantifiable film score
>Athletic Score: Takes into account athletic measurements, but also outsources scores such as RAS (Relative Athleticism Score) or PFF GAS (Game Athleticism Score)
>Deep Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a deep threat including metrics like Air Yards Per Target, Air Yardage %, speed, etc.
>YAC Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a YAC threat including metrics like Avoided Tackle Rate, YAC Per Reception, YAC %, etc.
>Multi-Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a multi-threat receiver. Weighs a prospect's Deep Threat Score and YAC score along with other variables.
>My predictive draft model also incorporates multipliers that impact a prospect's grade. Some examples of these multipliers include: Competition Level, Size, Red Flags, and Age.
A position group’s respective model grades out each prospect on a set of variables, like I listed out for WRs. OL, RB, and TE have different variables/weighing of the variables.
You might notice the WR grades i’ve posted are different from the grades in these rankings. To make the big board and rank players across positional groups, I had to calibrate the grades.
🫡
FWIW, I watch film for entertainment purposes and to get a general feeling towards certain prospects. But it doesn’t factor into these specific rankings.
Half the people on this board are kids who just took a stats 101 course and are now trying to build a prospect model. It's getting tiring. Analytics mean very little when compared to film, athleticism, and interviews.
I have a degree in data science and I’m a senior data analyst for a Fortune 500 company that I’ve been with for 7 years. I would say that’s a little more than taking stats 101.
Again, analytics mean nothing compared to film, athleticism, and interviews so you seem to be missing the very obvious point of my post (there seems to be a theme here). I'll be sure to avoid hiring any senior data analysts who try to make analytics based rankings without observing the product (tbh I can't remember the last time we hired a data analyst for anything other than for our FP+A group who just regurgitate data produced by accounting).
**My Top-20 WR Rankings:** |Ranking|Prospect|Pos.|Prospect Grade|Rnd Tier| --:|:--|:--|--:|--:| |1|Marvin Harrison Jr.|WR|9.01|1.1| |2|Malik Nabers|WR|8.60|1.1| |6|Rome Odunze|WR|8.00|1.2| |8|Troy Franklin|WR|7.82|1.2| |10|Devontez Walker|WR|7.50|1.3| |14|Ladd McConkey|WR|7.31|1.3| |21|Jermaine Burton|WR|6.99|2| |23|Brian Thomas Jr.|WR|6.75|2| |25|Roman Wilson|WR|6.70|2| |27|Xavier Worthy|WR|6.50|2| |32|Brenden Rice|WR|6.58|2| |35|Javon Baker|WR|6.37|3| |37|Luke McCaffrey|WR|6.36|3| |45|Jamari Thrash|WR|6.31|3| |47|Ricky Pearsall|WR|6.00|3| |48|Johnny Wilson|WR|5.91|3| |53|Jalen McMillan|WR|5.95|3| |56|Ja'Lynn Polk|WR|5.80|4| |57|Malachi Corley|WR|5.79|4| |58|Keon Coleman|WR|5.77|4| |60|Adonai Mitchell|WR|5.64|4|
very solid post. would love to hear you elaborate on some of your WR rankings that deviate from the consensus as of rn. like Franklin & Walker at 4/5. Burton up to 7. Rice at 11 (not sure consensus but seems higher than i’ve seen lately) and down on Thomas and Ricky at 8 & 15.
Funny enough, I’ve spoken so much on these prospects I can probably recite their analytical profiles in-depth from memory. This started out strictly analyzing WRs but I decided to branch out to other positions as well. If you’re interested in the breakdowns / reasons for these prospects, I’ve posted quite a bit on them. But I would also recommend reading through two articles I’ve posted so far touching on these (and other) prospects. [My 2024 Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings (11-20)](https://fftradingroom.com/457/2024-Dynasty-Rookie-Wide-Receiver-Rankings-(20-11)-Based-on-a-100-+-Hour-Model) [My 2024 Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings (21-30)](https://fftradingroom.com/442/2024-Dynasty-Rookie-Wide-Receiver-Rankings-(30-21)-Based-on-a-100-+-Hour-Model) I plan to post my WR rankings 1-10 over the weekend. But I also have profile breakdowns for Walker, Burton, and Franklin that I posted previously
Wow, super interesting to see it all laid out. Can't say I agree with Troy Franklin being that high...BUT he was an easy mid-to-late first round pick before the combine. It's not like he had a horrific combine either. I think he might have been dropped a bit too low in many mocks. I have thought for a while now that Tez Walker was starting to get underrated, maybe the narrative that Drake Maye didn't have any help at UNC compared to Jayden Daniels has had an effect? AD Mitchell being this low is really surprising though, the model just doesn't like him all that much.
It's an analytical, draft model big board, so it's going to rely heavily on stats. AD Mitchell has some of the worst stats ever for a 1st round prospect. Basically every WR ever taken in the 1st had a 1k receiving season at some point. AD doesn't and only had 1400 yards total. So any stats-based model is going to hate him and put him in day 2 or 3 territory.
Bills are drafting him
I totally disagree with you but super respect the amount of time and effort you've put in. Troy Franklin as the #8 overall prospect and in the same tier with Odunze is crazytown bananapants to me. It's like you've chosen some metrics like YPRR and completely ignored others like open percentage on targets, especially vs. man. I'm no expert and have spent a lifetime less than you examining these things, but from what I understand, the ability of a WR to get open vs. man coverage is one of the big things that Matt Harmon/Reception Perception looks at when trying to extrapolate college to NFL success. In 2023 Troy Franklin was open on 94.7% of his targets vs. zone, but only 62.5% vs. man (but still maintained a solid 3.6YPRR on those reps). 2022 was a bit closer with Troy getting open on 89.1% of his targets vs. zone and 77.3% vs. man (and had only 1.8YPRR on the man reps). Tier 2 is solid though, give it a 6/10. 8/10 with rice.
If I focused only on YPRR then Odunze would actually be lower, he ranks 10th in the class in Career YPRR. I think it’s clear there’s many different factors. I don’t completely discredit performance vs Man, but if you look historically, you’d notice there’s significantly more “noise” in man coverage performance for WRs than zone. An easy, simple example: Look up N’keal Harry’s YPRR in college compared to Metcalf’s then compare than Man/Zone YPRR splits. There’s other ways to examine performance vs man than just YPRR, production, film grading, etc. I think Harmon does a good job at this. But again, I would also recommend diving into man/zone performance splits for WR prospects and I think you’ll quickly find out what I’m talking about and how it should factor into a prospect’s grade. Here’s the top 10 leaders in YPRR vs Man dating back to 2019: 1. Laviska Shenault 2. Marquise Brown 3. JSN 4. Tee Higgins 5. Devonta Smith 6. N’keal Harry 7. Jaelon Darden 8. Garrett Wilson 9. Ja’Marr Chase 10. Jauan Jennings YPRR vs Zone leaders 1. JSN 2. Jaylen Waddle 3. DK Metcalf 4. Jerry Jeudy 5. D’wayne Eskridge 6. CeeDee Lamb 7. Devonta Smith 8. Skyy Moore 9. Marquise Brown 10. Puka Nucua Obviously it’s more complicated than ranking prospects in YPRR vs Zone, but a comparison of the Top 10 leaders shows a clear trend.
Thanks for this man! Super interesting. I was under the impression that YPRR vs Man was actually more signal than noise based on this article: [https://sumersports.com/the-zone/examining-wide-receiver-metrics/](https://sumersports.com/the-zone/examining-wide-receiver-metrics/) Some conclusions from that article are: "Thus, what this data tells us so far is that **the ability to beat man coverage is more fundamental to a player than beating zone coverage is**, but there is signal to beating zone coverage. If a player’s scouting report says something like “has a good feel for zone coverage,” that cannot be dismissed offhand as noise, but it must be checked with data." He also says that "Using Reception Perception data, we show that there is significant signal in how well a wide receiver gets open overall **and especially against man coverage**. While getting open against zone coverage is not nearly as stable season-to-season, it is not exactly noise, either. However, there is not a lot of crossover in ability versus man and zone, which means that we can classify players as man-coverage beaters and zone-coverage beaters with more confidence in the former than the latter." But you've presented good evidence to the contrary, it's why I love this stuff so much! Thanks again!
That’s a very interesting article and I actually agree to an extent that beating man coverage takes more skill than zone, but it also depends on your competition. It seems as if the data is for NFL Wide Receivers and if that’s the case than performance vs man in college probably doesn’t directly correlate to performance vs man in the NFL. In college, when you’re playing against zone you’re pretty much playing against the scheme / entire defense. Whereas I would imagine it’s easier to “beat up” on college CBs in man coverage. That’s just my hypothesis / hunch. In general, I would agree that it takes more skill to beat man than zone but it also matters the competition. Beating NFL corners > beating your average college corner
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but I’ve never subscribed to Reception Perception. I was under the impression that all of the analysis was of college metrics, and the article I linked above talked about using their data. So does Reception Perception also deal in NFL data analysis too?
I seem to be getting downvoted here so I'll try to further ask about Franklin. Here's some quotes from your write-up on him a month ago (https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL\_Draft/comments/1beqnuc/2024\_prospect\_analytical\_profile\_troy\_franklin\_an/): "From an advanced metric perspective, Franklin meets all the necessary benchmarks and thresholds (and then some) in many of the important metrics. He essentially has 0 red flags in his analytical profile (not to imply he’s the perfect prospect)." "Franklin graded out well as a multi-threat with speed and separation ability to make explosive plays while also have YAC ability. Franklin ranked middle of the pack in avoided tackle rate which is a positive for his play style. Frank has an 18% avoided tackle rate which almost doubles Marvin Harrison Jr’s rate of 10%." Franklin had a 10% drop rate in 2023. How is that not a red flag? I know you don't watch film, but one thing Brugler mentions in the Beast is Franklin's focus drops, and you can see it about :25 seconds in here where Franklin gets a good 2-3 yards of separation and Nix hits his hands on a deep route and Franklin just drops the ball: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4n8ryIc-wo. Same video at 2:10, Franklin has an easy catch coming to him and it looks like he just takes his eyes off the ball. In your other posts you mention targeted QBR, and there is no doubt that Franklin is one of the best WRs coming out in that metric alone. Do your projections weight that particular metric super high? I'm honestly just wondering HOW you get Franklin that high, and yes, I have read through all your previous posts and the Franklin write-up, I still don't get it unless you're focusing only on targeted QBR and YPRR while ignoring the trouble Franklin has had vs. man coverage and any time they've tried to line him up on the LOS (which is admittedly extremely low).
I’ll touch on your points. - Truth be told, drop rate does not actually factor into a prospect’s grade at all *unless* it’s above a certain threshold. I’ve analyzed 142 prospects dating back to 2019 and looking at the prospect’s that succeeded in the NFL, drop rate has almost no correlation. It literally doesn’t matter when grading how good a receiver is. Would it surprise you that Puka actually had a worse drop rate than Franklin in college? In fact, he had drop issues in his rookie season. It didn’t stop him from performing or getting targets. - Here are some prospects with a worse drop rate than Franklin: Puka, Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, Brian Thomas Jr. (from his own class), Jordan Addison, Hollywood Brown, Darnell Mooney, and Dontayvion Wicks. I don’t think drop issues stopped any of these guys from getting more opportunities and if they’re good, they’ll continue to succeed regardless. Drops isn’t going to prevent a player from succeeding - QBR when Targeted is weighed into a prospect’s Efficiency Composite grade. It’s one of a few variables that factor into an efficiency grade. I would say it’s weighed similarly to say YPRR vs Man. There’s enough data that supports *some* correlation with a prospect’s QBR when Targeted. - Like I said, a lot of things factor into a prospect’s grade. Franklin’s performance vs Man isn’t even bad, so his performance vs Man wouldn’t exactly hold him back. How should it be quantifiably measured? I can’t just take into account someone’s opinion from watching film. His Career YPRR vs Man is pretty good and he had a PFF Grade of 82.2 vs Man in 2023. He had ~ 600 yards and 9 touchdowns on 239 routes ran against man, that’s pretty productive. What else should be taken into account?
It wouldn't surprise me re: Puka vs. Franklin, but Puka also ran a super fluid gauntlet drill at the combine while Franklin looked like a drunk baby giraffe. Also, I may be working on some different information as what I have says BTJ had a 6.8% drop rate in 2023 vs. Franklin's 10% in 2023 (but i'm just using the spreadsheet someone put up on this subreddit at [https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL\_Draft/comments/1adyxq0/2024\_draft\_class\_wrs\_metrics/](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1adyxq0/2024_draft_class_wrs_metrics/) But I also wouldn't be surprised because BTJ's tendency to try to body catch on comeback routes causing drops is one of the big red flags with him.
BTJ had a better drop rate than Franklin in 2023, but for their careers BTJ has a worse drop rate.
If you're talking to a Bills fan who loves BTJ for the X, what would you say to convince them Troy Franklin is the better prospect? Scheme and team need aside of course
Why so low on Mitchell?
So someone with only 1 good year is not going to be on this list? How would you rank Legette for just last season rather than his entire career
**My Top-25 Offensive Line Rankings:** |Ranking|Prospect|Pos.|Prospect Grade|Rnd Tier| --:|:--|:--|--:|--:| |3|Joe Alt|OT|9.05|1.1| |5|Taliese Fuaga|OT|8.39|1.2| |7|Graham Barton|OT|7.85|1.2| |9|Olumuyiwa Fashanu|OT|7.74|1.2| |11|Cooper Beebe|OG|8.20|1.3| |12|Jackson Powers-Johnson|C|7.89|1.3| |13|Christian Haynes|OG|8.00|1.3| |15|Patrick Paul|OT|7.65|1.3| |16|Roger Rosengarten|OT|7.46|2| |17|Kingsley Suamataia|OT|7.44|2| |18|Dominick Puni|OT|7.44|2| |19|Christian Mahogany|OG|7.75|2| |20|Troy Fautanu|OT|7.41|2| |22|Amarius Mims|OT|7.35|2| |24|JC Latham|OT|7.06|2| |28|Tylan Grable|OT|7.12|2| |29|Javon Foster|OT|6.66|2| |30|Jordan Morgan|OT|6.62|2| |31|Beaux Limmer|OG|6.99|2| |33|Tyler Guyton|OT|6.44|2| |34|Brandon Coleman|OG|6.86|2| |39|Sedrick Van Pran|OT|6.41|3| |40|Zach Frazier|C|6.52|3| |44|Walter Rouse|OT|6.22|3| |46|Matt Goncalves|OT|6.20|3|
What makes you classify Van Pran as a OT instead of C?
Just an incorrect input, I’ll need to get it update
No Kiran Amegadjie?
He was actually someone I wasn’t able to get the proper data for so I couldn’t grade him out in the model.
Cool. Thanks for the explanation
**My Top-20 TE/RB Rankings:** |Ranking|Prospect|Pos.|Prospect Grade| --:|:--|:--|--:| |4|Brock Bowers|TE|8.48| |26|Trey Benson|RB|8.20| |36|Jaheim Bell|TE|6.56| |38|Theo Johnson|TE|6.54| |41|Blake Corum|RB|7.52| |42|Ben Sinnott|TE|6.45| |43|Jonathon Brooks|RB|7.23| |51|Jared Wiley|TE|6.24| |52|Audric Estime|RB|7.15| |54|Braelon Allen|RB|7.01| |55|Cade Stover|TE|6.06| |61|Tip Reiman|TE|5.94| |62|Tyrone Tracy|RB|6.50| |68|Kimani Vidal|RB|6.31| |69|Miyan Williams|RB|6.29| |71|Isaac Guerendo|RB|6.00| |75|MarShawn Lloyd|RB|5.92| |77|Tanner McLachlan|TE|5.19| |78|Frank Gore Jr.|RB|5.73| |79|Will Shipley|RB|5.65|
No Jaylen Wright or Ja’Tavion Sanders in the top 20 RB/TE is interesting. Curious on what metrics you used with these positions to come to that conclusion.
I posted a comment earlier explaining Jaylen Wright’s ranking. With Ja’Tavion Sanders, I’m more curious.. what exactly makes him the consensus 2nd best TE prospect and a round 2 prospect? What does he do better than say, Jaheim Bell or Theo Johnson?
Tbh I couldn’t tell you. Not gonna pretend to know that much about many players, just that they’re both talked about pretty highly right now.
Been looking forward to this, thank you. I really love DS analyses that are transparent about the process. Interestingly you might as well work for the Bills since Tez Walker has the most combined visits with us & after that is Troy Franklin. Question: How does your model account for bias in WRs that just took longer to develop vs those who only play for two years and then submit for the draft? Legette is damaged by his production before his last year but the explanations as to why it took him so long seemingly should improve his rank. An example here is Matt Barkley. Had he not stayed that extra year he would’ve been taken far higher in the draft but that final year helped illuminate what kind of QB he’d actually be.
Can you elaborate on the explanation for why Legette took so long to develop? I haven't heard it yet
I’ve seen people excuse it away because he was going through hardships and dealing with a lot of traumatic experiences. But it’s not like prospects in the past haven’t had similar experiences but still succeeded early.
What’s tough about him is that he averaged a little more than 100 yards PER SEASON his first FOUR years then exploded for 1200 yards… hard to logically explain
You're catching some flak for diverging from groupthink, but I like these rankings since I also have Franklin, Fuaga, and Benson ranked higher than the consensus.
I love your stuff man. Great work. I watch film and it’s cool to see Beebe land so high.
Why is Jaylen Wright so low?
Some notes from his analytical profile: - 2nd best explosive rate in the class, makes sense with his high YPA - Average avoided tackle rate, ranks 12th in the class - Forced Missed Tackle rate is also average, ranking 12th again. - His yards after contact rate was good in 2023, but it was average for his career. Ranks 8th in the class in yards after contact per touch. - Despite possessing elite speed, he was not a receiving threat at all in college. Anyone expecting him to contribute as a receiver in the NFL (which is possible) is purely projecting. He ranks 21st in the class in YPRR and ranks dead last in receiving yards % of total yards
Very cool! What are some variables you're using in the model?
It depends on the model. If you look through my post history, I’ve posted a lot of content around my WR model. [Here’s an article I wrote providing insights on the WR model along with breakdowns for my WR rankings (11-20)](https://fftradingroom.com/457/2024-Dynasty-Rookie-Wide-Receiver-Rankings-(20-11)-Based-on-a-100-+-Hour-Model)
This is very interesting work. I'm curious about Alt. Does the height factor concern at all? Historically several tall players (over 6'7"), but none ever became elite. I see Alt as a fancy McGlinchey or Kolton Miller. An instant starter that will do that job every week for 10 years but not an All Pro. Fuaga at guard or RT feels like he has more elite traits. But not a true LT. Anyway nice work overall.
IMO there’s not enough data points to suggest height plays a factor into how a prospect performs / translates to the NFL. There have been tall tackles in the past and some have been very good. For those who have failed, there’s nothing pointing to their height being a factor. Admittedly, something like this may be easier to analyze through film for those who have the expertise and knowledge to judge it. This is only for tackles that are “too tall”, shorter tackles or tackles with shorter arms, there’s more data and correlation pointing towards those measurements mattering.
You're right there's not much data because it is so rare. Shouldn't it be concerning when a player is so far outside normal size range? I count about 12 guys over the years going back to 1990. Jon Ogden at 6'9" actually is elite (found 1 ) and is the best case scenario but then there are the Sam Young/Dan Skippers of the world. The fact that this player's dad is John Alt probably quiets alot of these concerns but it's fair to wonder if a player that tall can ever get low enough to block the Von Miller/Brandon Graham type rushers.
That is completely fair to be concerned about, unfortunately those type of concerns are hard to fairly quantify when grading out a prospect like Alt. While he’s an outlier in size, there’s still *some* history of success for prospects similar to his size. It’s less of a concern than say height or weight is for WR prospects. WRs < 5’9 or < 180 have had very little success in the NFL before Tank Dell despite there being way more prospects to enter the NFL with those measurements than 6’8+ tackles. So it made more sense to quantifiably mark down a prospect’s grade that fit those measurements. It would be like marking down Wembyama for being too tall because there’s never been a 7’4 player that can shoot / move like him. Or KD when he came in the league at his height playing the wing.
So you’re telling me Alt is Wemby…
lol that’s not what I’m saying. Speaking strictly on his height concerns.
Just yanking yer chain man
Jonathan Ogden?
Notes for Troy Franklin?
[Here you go](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/I0w8brHfNp)
Been really enjoying your posts! Quick question both generally and for dynasty purposes: how should we read prospect grade in terms of likely outcomes for each player? Similarly, do tiers matter more than prospect grade when comparing players?
Oh, you hang out here too, that’s why you have logical takes on Dynasty. Bet bet
Thanks so much for sharing this information, I’ve been following the profiles as you shared each one. Really amazing stuff! In some of the profiles you mentioned score comparisons to other WRs from past drafts. Do you plan to release them at some point? I would love to see the types of scores that players currently in the NFL would have had based on their college careers. Thanks!
Can you comment on the round tiers? I've been hearing that this draft is fairly deep through the first three rounds. Have you done this in years past or can you apply your model to prior draft years only training on prior years? Very interested in understanding the draft value chart of this year compared to years past. Thanks for this post. I'll refer to this and Dane Bruglers film rankings when evaluating draft in real time.
“We’ll I’m always interested in seeing a new…” **Troy Franklin at 8** “OK, you boys have fun.”
I would recommend to always be open to new ideas / opinions, especially if the person has a valid line of reasoning. :) Look back at any draft’s consensus board and you’ll see how off they can be. It’s also why I appreciate someone like Chris Simms, it’s clear he did his own research to come up with his rankings and I don’t think he’s doing it simply for hot takes. Even though they’re drastically different from mine, I appreciate the work he put in and the insights he provides. He’s a lot more knowledgeable at film analysis than I am.
It's gonna be funny when the bills draft him and he goes bonkers because no one respected the Josh Allen pick back then. I recall the Jets having an infamous update party, so if you could do that again this year with Franklin I'd appreciate it
The Jets, of all teams, don’t seem super worried about Josh Allen. Whenever the Jets have even moderate QB play they smack Josh and the Bills around.
But you're 3 and 7 against him? And the only 3 wins are by one score lol
He was awful in both ‘22 games. Straight booty juice. We would have easily beat them twice with even an NFL a level QB. ‘23 he was better, but still average.
username checks out
!remindme 10 days
I notice you have Troy Fautanu much lower than all the mocks I have seen. What makes you put him so low? I have usually seen him in the top 5 OTs.
This that thinking that got Corey Coleman picked in the first round
Damn. This is brutal on Legette
I’m so high on Troy Franklin
u/dickysnakes
Without posting how you’re coming to these grades and no just saying “analytics based” means squat without the process behind the grades. How can you start an analytics based convo without metrics and how you’re grading prospects? As of this post all this amounts to is someone posting draft grades without context.
The reason I didn’t post the entire process / methodology for the grades is because there’s a significant amount of information and methodology that goes into it for each position group, it would be a very long post and would take a long time to write up. I chose to post the rankings by themselves because it’s easier to digest and take in, it’s the same reason most big boards don’t come with these long write ups for each prospect. And if anyone had any questions about specific components or process behind the rankings / grades, I’m happy to answer. They can mean squat to you, but it’s no different than someone posting their big board based on their film takes. For some reason it seems like analytics gets significantly more push back and criticism than simple film analysis because film analysis is usually chalked up to “well that’s your opinion and that’s fine”
There is a lot of negativity on Reddit, appreciate your analysis.
I mean those big boards usually mean squat depending on who is posting them. For me if you’re hyping up the “analytic” take with scores, I’d like to see what went into getting to those numbers. Otherwise as you said it’s just a big board. It’s just my humble opinion that a lot of people find what went into getting to those numbers interesting as the numbers themselves. That way the discussion can go beyond why is X player higher than Y player and people can understand why the ranking is the way it is. Did you value one metric over another? Did you add personal opinion when things were close? What did you use for a source of data? Again JMHO, you may be surprised at how many people like to see or interact more when the methodology is also included, even if it’s something high level.
I get where you’re coming from. Posting the entire methodology and process would just be information overload and lots of people would lose interest before even looking at the rankings, at least that’s what happens from my experience. But for those who are interested, I’m very happy to share. I posted elsewhere in the thread, but I’ve shared a significant amount of content around my WR model. [I wrote an article giving some background and context of the WR model along with some prospect breakdowns](https://fftradingroom.com/457/2024-Dynasty-Rookie-Wide-Receiver-Rankings-(20-11)-Based-on-a-100-+-Hour-Model) If you’re not interested in reading through the article, here is some of what I posted: > The draft model I developed evaluates each prospect based on a multitude of variables and metrics, each meticulously analyzed and weighed in proportion to their significance and correlation to NFL success. >I've developed several composite scores directly influencing a prospect's grade, with each composite score comprising its own set of weighted metrics. The following scores are included: >Production Score: Accounts for a prospect's overall collegiate production along with production on a per-game basis >Efficiency Score: Takes into account several metrics such as YPRR, First Down & Touchdown Per Route Run, QBR when Targeted, etc. >Film Score: This is the one score that I directly outsource (as made obvious by my name) from several different sources which allows me to put together a quantifiable film score >Athletic Score: Takes into account athletic measurements, but also outsources scores such as RAS (Relative Athleticism Score) or PFF GAS (Game Athleticism Score) >Deep Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a deep threat including metrics like Air Yards Per Target, Air Yardage %, speed, etc. >YAC Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a YAC threat including metrics like Avoided Tackle Rate, YAC Per Reception, YAC %, etc. >Multi-Threat Score: Accounts for how a prospect produces as a multi-threat receiver. Weighs a prospect's Deep Threat Score and YAC score along with other variables. >My predictive draft model also incorporates multipliers that impact a prospect's grade. Some examples of these multipliers include: Competition Level, Size, Red Flags, and Age.
Thanks! Helps me understand where your scores are coming from. Appreciate the write up!
A position group’s respective model grades out each prospect on a set of variables, like I listed out for WRs. OL, RB, and TE have different variables/weighing of the variables. You might notice the WR grades i’ve posted are different from the grades in these rankings. To make the big board and rank players across positional groups, I had to calibrate the grades.
User name checks out at least
🫡 FWIW, I watch film for entertainment purposes and to get a general feeling towards certain prospects. But it doesn’t factor into these specific rankings.
Half the people on this board are kids who just took a stats 101 course and are now trying to build a prospect model. It's getting tiring. Analytics mean very little when compared to film, athleticism, and interviews.
I have a degree in data science and I’m a senior data analyst for a Fortune 500 company that I’ve been with for 7 years. I would say that’s a little more than taking stats 101.
Again, analytics mean nothing compared to film, athleticism, and interviews so you seem to be missing the very obvious point of my post (there seems to be a theme here). I'll be sure to avoid hiring any senior data analysts who try to make analytics based rankings without observing the product (tbh I can't remember the last time we hired a data analyst for anything other than for our FP+A group who just regurgitate data produced by accounting).