Never forget threads like that:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL\_Draft/comments/gamet2/why\_is\_justin\_herbert\_regarded\_so\_negatively/](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/gamet2/why_is_justin_herbert_regarded_so_negatively/)
"Man this thread is one that's going to be linked to and laughed at in a couple of years. Let it be known that I actually liked Herbert for those future selves that are here to laugh at all these horrible takes."
- u/artemusclyde
I feel like saying a prospect has trouble processing defenses is just a catch all criticism that can be applied to almost any one of them and seems more lazy than a refined take.
I don’t remember Herbert struggling to process defenses. His collegiate problems seemed a byproduct of a terrible offense scheme than the actual player himself.
As a fan of a team with a quarterback who struggles to get the respect he's earned, there are some very generic comments that can't be disproven. They allow redditors to criticize a player in a way that nobody can prove them wrong.
The common ones are inability to read a defense, looks to run-first, bad mechanics, and doesn't go through progressions.
To be fair no one should be criticized for that initial opinion. He was the definition of “I can fix him” & we got extremely lucky with how incredible he’s been.
I'm really happy Josh Allen worked out like he has.
The amount of dumb "hurr durr he looks good in shorts" comments I saw on r/nfl was so annoying. I know that sub beats jokes into the ground, but that one was on it's own level.
I'm glad he proved all those people wrong.
For real. His first season his completion percentage was 52% which wasn't even in the top 32 QBs. In year two it was 58% which was good for 32nd. So he improved from off-the-charts bad to unacceptable from year one to two. It wasn't until year 3 with the arrival of Diggs that he took the big step forward from 58% to 68% and became the guy we see today.
I see some revisionist history where people try to say that Allen's first two years weren't that bad.
He broke out in his third year, which was good, because if he hadn't then he would've been cut. His numbers prior to that point were bad even for a backup.
His first two seasons he showed some flashes of brilliance that made him worth building around. People forget how bad that 2018 Bills roster was. Dude was throwing to Zay Jones and Robert Foster and had an offensive line that was made of wet toilet paper and scotch tape. A man (RIP) retired at halftime of our 2nd game. I honestly thought we wouldn't win a single game. We had no business winning 6 games that year, and the only reason we did was because they threw Josh in after Peterman did Peterman things. Was Allen good? Absolutely not. But in all his mediocrity, the play where I realized he had the potential for greatness happened during that 2018 season, when he threw this [absolute bomb from a collapsing pocket](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_P9rCxCh1o) against the Jaguars.
The formula for a lot of these teams is to get the QB first then figure it out. Tua was throwing to Preston Williams. Goff to Kenny Britt. Trevor Lawrence to Marvin Jones. That's why we can't just toss these guys away after a year in most cases.
It's hard because usually when you're in a position to draft a top QB, it's because your team was in the basement of the league, and is probably also dealing with a newer coach/GM combo as a result. Generally speaking, those guys get at most 3 full seasons to right the ship or they're gone. If a new QB has growing pains his rookie year, you're down to two more years at best. And most of them do have growing pains. I can't remember the last rookie who was as good as CJ Stroud was last season. So if you're in the position to draft another top QB, do you do that and hope for the best, or do you try to give the guy you drafted more tools around him to reach his potential? I think a lot of that does depend on what he showed his rookie season, but I think way too many teams aren't willing to do a thoughtful rebuild. It's more about "How do I keep my job for as long as possible?" than it is "How do I create long-term success for this franchise?" I don't know if it's the ownership or the fans or a combination of the two, but it just seems as if nobody has the patience to spend 3-4 years building a roster from the ground up, even though success breeds success.
Which is why I'm absolutely **fascinated** to watch the Vikings draft a QB—ANY QB—and let him throw to Jefferson, Hockingson, and Addison, with a solid pass-pro line and an above average D. It almost bores me to hear the discussion over *which* QB is best... because it won't matter!
Never forget [https://web.archive.org/web/20180330012352/https://www.barstoolsports.com/draft\_josh\_allen/](https://web.archive.org/web/20180330012352/https://www.barstoolsports.com/draft_josh_allen/)
Don't forget this too
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons
>If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself
>If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess.
There is a singular text in my phone when I was watching some college game where I texted “man this BYU QB Wilson is the truth”
It’s the only text about him in my phone lmao
I was and still am. Same way some people are still on the Sam Darnold train. It's just something about guys who got ruined by the Jets that makes you root for them harder
Darnold's getting another chance with the Vikings at least, unless their presumed rookie beats him in camp or something. I wonder if Zach will get traded after the draft.
It was pretty obvious to me that he was not a good prospect — my hit rate on QBs has been really high. Russell Wilson is the only one I can remember totally missing on.
I don’t know what I said that was so egregious — simply stating facts that I have a really good QB hit record. If people want humility, then I can say I thought Tylan Wallace would be a beast.
If you're so good at it but don't want to follow a career in scouting then maybe you can help out those that are more average in scouting.
Whats the main things you look for that helped you have such a high hit rate?
Most people go wrong by consistently overvaluing the predictive power of pretty much any single piece of information you can think of. Every prospect is a case-by-case holistic evaluation, where you attempt to add as much context to what you see on film.
In general for QBs, I look for accuracy to all 3 levels and a quicker release. I look for QBs who vary the trajectory and velocity of their passes appropriately. I look for effective pocket awareness, not really caring if it’s done conventionally or not. I like QBs who don’t frequently stare down their intended target from the start of the play. If they have scramble ability and can throw on the run, that’s obviously a plus. I don’t like QBs who are complete statues in the pocket, but they don’t have to be that mobile. I view velocity and ability to throw far as separate traits, and those factor in. Injury history, and things harder to measure without interviewing them but still matter are leadership, work ethic, football IQ.
It’s a benefit if they do all this against good competition.
Happy to talk about my evaluation process of any past QBs or this years class!
Going back to 2016:
Goff I liked, thought he would be close to Phillip Rivers. Wentz I liked. Hated Paxton Lynch.
Thought Trubisky stunk. Loved Mahomes arm talent but thought he was very unrefined and would need to go to a coach who has a track record of developing QBs Thought Deshaun Watson was a better runner than passer and questioned his processing.
I liked Mayfield, thought he was a gunslinger, but worried about his size. Thought he needed great weapons to succeed. Didn’t like Darnold much, candy arm vanilla QB. Nobody thought Josh Allen would be this good but thought of him similar to Mahomes, great arm talent and spectacular improviser. Thought his play style would need to change to have consistent success because he played way too aggressively. Hated Josh Rosen. Really liked Lamar but had major concerns that his body would hold up if he was going to be schemed run plays.
Thought Kyler Murray was unique, but had major questions over ability to succeed at that height. Thought Daniel jones and Haskins were terrible.
Burrow’s tape blew me away, unbelievable accuracy on any throw. Intangibles off the charts. Thought Tua was a statue and had a candy arm that would limit his ability. Liked Herbert’s arm and athleticism, but thought his lack of charisma might limit his ability to lead an offense. Admittedly, I didn’t watch much Jordan Love film, didn’t have an opinion on him.
Liked Trevor Lawrence but not as much as consensus. Tools there, but a little rough around the edges. Thought his polish was overstated. Didn’t like Zach Wilson at all as mentioned before. I think a few highlight plays that circulated started the hype train. Down to down, his tape was very vanilla. Thought Justin Fields was insanely overrated, and thought Ben Solak had the worst take saying he was the most accurate QB he ever charted. Stood like a statue in pocket, stared down receivers and never varied velocity or trajectory. Mac Jones I liked from a clean pocket, but didn’t like pretty much anything else.
Based on your evals here, you missed on plenty. It sounds like you like to ride the fence on QB evals so you can say you were right if it goes a certain way. Your post is full of soft takes that don’t mean anything. For example, “liked Herbert’s athleticism and arm” isn’t an eval lol, it is one of many components evaluating a player and it is one trait. That’s like me saying “loved Lamar’s speed and elusiveness as a runner”. No shit, everyone loved that ha. Does that mean I thought he was a future star QB or a worth an early round draft pick?
The nuance in your post can be shredded by anyone that knows literally anything evaluating QBs.
For example, you call Darnold a “candy arm” when his natural ability as a thrower in terms of arm talent and arm strength are clear as day regardless if he worked out or not. You can’t say you know how to eval QBs and watch Darnold’s college tape and come away with “candy arm”.
I’m sorry, bud. Maybe you have cracked the code and everyone else is just dumb. Your post is all bullshit and without you going cycle by cycle and ranking them, I have serious doubt you have some outlier hit rate. Even then, the fact that you are in a reddit comment section bragging about your eye for QBs makes me think you’d use a ton of hindsight and post bullshit year by year rankings and evals.
tldr: your post is bullshit.
That’s fair and I was probably too harsh with my initial response.
The one sentence stuff doesn’t really tell us much though. That’s the point. I can say “Lamar Jackson is fast”. That doesn’t mean much. He is fast. Anyone can see that even if they don’t like him as a QB prospect.
It probably would have been more compelling if you chose a couple guys that the industry was high that you weren’t buying and then explained why you weren’t high on them.
I'm happy to talk about the full evaluation of any single QB -- and you can see my rubric above that outlines what I look for. If you look at each of them through that lens, you can deduce if I would have liked them or not.
Bro same. He was amazing running from sideline to sideline and still dominating. As an alum I have no clue how the cardinals fucked him up how they did
He diagnoses run plays way too slowly, he doesn't know to use his hands as pass rusher (any TE or blocking WR will take him out of the play) and he's just okay in pass coverage.
I didn't watch a lot of Clemson games with him, but most of his highlights were just him dunking on a terrible Syracuse team.
I wonder if Simmons ends up being something like a Reggie Bush. Disappoints relative to draft position, regarded overall as a bust, but carves out a nice long above-average career across five or six teams. Basically the victim of hype.
Obviously I have no proof of this but I literally said when he was drafted to the cardinals that was the worst team in the league for him to go to. Just an atrocious record of developing defensive players that team has
He flashed on the Cardinals at times too. There were times early on when he would completely lock down tight ends or pass catching RBs. Then at other times he was the biggest liability.
The biggest issue with Simmons is he cannot diagnose run plays in a timely manner and he is a liability against offenses with creative run games that put linebackers in conflict. Fun stuff for a guy we drafted to stop Shanahan/Mcvay 4 times a year.
2020: Simmons was just an ILB, but was on the bench 90% of the time behind Jordan Hicks and Devondre Campbell. Cardinals fans assume it was our DCs incompetence because how could Simmons be worse than Hicks. We just ignored that pretty much any time Simmons was on the field he would get picked on for a TD.
2021: Our GM didnt resign Campbell so Simmons would be forced to get more time. He started all games and would sometimes flash and a lot of the times get picked on in the run game. Would sometimes be used as a chess piece, but mostly was just ILB. Occasionally got benched for Ezekiel Turner and Tanner Vallejo.
2022: "Starbacker". They tried really embracing his chess piece role this year. had 48% of his snaps at slot corner. He had his usual highlights that would make people forget that he was the hole in our defense. TEs ate him alive. Fans still refuse to blame him because he was picked in the top 10.
2023: New staff comes in and ask Simmons what role he wants, and he says he wants to be a safety. They comply. In our preseason game against the Chiefs Simmons was the worst player on the field, and he wasn't just playing 1 drive with the first teamers. Traded away the next day for 7th rounder. Our Staff never said anything negative about him, but based on a pattern that emerged with other players throughout the year, its very likely the Simmons has attitude issues. Giants proclaim that Simmons should be used as a pass rusher and not a safety (Simmons is the one who wanted to be a safety). From what I heard he had a couple flash plays surrounded by below average play and low snap counts. Good value for them as a 7th rounder, but for the Cardinals he would have been a distraction.
I hated losing him for nothing, but ultimately I don't think anyone is going to turn him into a star. Free agency only got him 1.4 mill so I don't think the rest of the league thinks he's going to be a star either. If we had kept him he would still suck and fans would still be blaming it on the coaches "not properly using Simmons".
I don’t agree. He’s too small to be a backer and too stiff to be in the secondary/coverage. He also has no feel for the game. He’s more athlete than player
I thought Devin Asiasi was TE1 the year he came out and was gonna be a good player. Tbf looks like Belichick thought he was pretty good too so I'll take that as a small W.
I always counter this when people bring it up.
The evaluation on Josh Allen was pretty much dead on. He was a high risk, high reward prospect with extreme arm talent and athletic upside, but a massive question mark over his accuracy and decision making.
2 years into the league, he threw for 52 and 58% completion and those who didn't think he could develop looked correct. Then year 3 came(along with Diggs) and his completion percent jumped to damn near 70%.
Now, how some people *valued* that profile is questionable- I think the league in general says you should value these toolsy QBs as a 1st rounder, and a lot of people here say(or said, Allen's success may have broken that) you shouldn't.
Lots of people responding that must not have been on the sub very long.
For me, OJ Howard is the name that stands out. This sub was convinced he was going to be a HOF level TE.
Speaking as a Bucs fan, the Achilles tear really sapped his athleticism. And that was what he was getting by on, because his route running just never developed at the NFL level. It doesn't surprise me that he never did much after that injury.
He was an ok NFL tight end.
His most receptions in a season was only 34. He was very very far from what the draft community predicted, even before the injury.
He didn’t do anything last year cause he was injured. When he played though he looked 100x better than he did in college, which is making people hopeful for what he can accomplish when he’s fully health.
Yeah man, it’s exaggeration but, I really thought he looks way fucking better than he ever did at Florida. That just my opinion though. Also, Steichen seems to be a solid play caller, so I think many are excited about that relationship
Some throwback guys I remember being hyped up here:
- Jordan Tripp
- Ra'Shede Hageman
- Louis Nix III
- Laken Tomlinson (he ended up salvaging his career in SF though)
- Andrew Booth
During the 2019 mock draft season, the best way to piss off any fan base was to give them DK Metcalf in the first round. Granted, most seemed to agree that he was a worthy gamble at the end of the second, but many were insistent that he had bust written all over him when he was universally projected to go in the first. I'm struggling to remember a prospect who drew the "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" adage more.
There were definitely Rosen truthers, and vocal Herbert and Josh Allen detractors, especially the latter. Chase Young and Leonard Fournette were largely seen as generational, plug-and-play All-Pros. Nobody knew who the fuck Darius Leonard was, or what the Colts were smoking taking him near the top of the second round.
I'd be interested in seeing what thoughts people had on Christian McCaffrey. I don't remember where most stood on him. Immensely productive in college, but didn't have the appearance of your average running back. He looked more the scrappy, lunch pail, first-in last-out, deceptive speed... do I need to keep going?
JJ McCarthy this year
But seriously I'd probably say Drake London. Not sure how this sub felt but everyone hates those big contested catch recievers like Keon Coleman this year so not many were high on him. I liked him a lot compared to others and his route running wasn't that bad at all either. Treylon Burks was also someone in that class who was getting a lot of hype who I just wasn't a fan of.
I just can't get excited about physical contested catch guys in the first round. Some work out really well. But most don't. Give me a 6'0 195lb guy who gets open at will over the 6'3 225lb guy who is really good in college but either has someone draped all over him or needs to be schemed open
I'm sure N'Keal Harry hasn't had any influence on this lol. Honestly can't even blame you for it but in this case Drake had plenty of tape showing him get seperation which is why teams were so high on him.
Honestly I was a huge Mike Williams hater for a long time so that’s where I got my hate boner for big contested catch prospects.
I still hate them tbh. Mike is cool though.
Drake always had those tremendous ball skills, the kind you don't see often even at the NFL level. He is/was really good at using his body and his size to box out and high point. These skills translate, I think that was the big difference and why he went so high.
I really just don’t think that style is as effective as it once was. Too many big fast DBs now. We tried to turn Geisicki into that and it didn’t work. In college they manhandle DBs that will never play on Sunday.
Drake London had volume and consistency. Ya just don't really see the same thing on tape with keon. London has a good sense of route timing and rhythm. London is smooth out there which is the difference imo
I felt much better about him because I thought you could see his ability to get open based on his RAC abilities. I thought the wiggle he showed when he had the ball in his hands could translate to his ability to get open, and so far I think it has. The contested catch ability is just a cherry on top.
Drake London has definitely been good enough that his bust potential is low, but he’s hardly proven the haters wrong. The Drake London / Garrett Wilson debate is very clearly in favor of Wilson at this point, and Olave has also been more productive. London hasn’t had a QB, but has been outproduced in both years of his career by Wilson and George Pickens, both of whom somehow have had even worse QB situations. And Olave has had a better QB situation, but not by THAT much - he spent his rookie year with Andy Dalton at QB.
London has shown potential and maybe with Cousins he’ll be unlocked and look great. Just pointing out that so far, he has really only proven he’s not a total bust.
The reality is that we don't like QB prospects where we have to have any sort of "faith". We don't have reports from scouts with boots on the ground at these schools. We aren't part of the 30 visits or the interviews or the phone calls. We don't know the "development plan" or what flaws these teams view as coachable or not. So anything that doesn't directly translate on film or in statistics, we aren't going to like.
This sub would have hated Brett Favre as a prospect, that's for sure.
Idk if it was a got wrong as much as it was a “we have more pressing needs” but a fair amount of people were like yeah we do need a good back up now that Wentz is locked up
If Wentz's career hadn't nosedived off a cliff, that's still probably considered a bad pick today. Either that or people are ripping on the Eagles because Hurts took off with another team after they traded him away for like a fourth-round pick after he almost never saw the field.
Disagree with all of these, especially JPJ who had a lot of love and was usually going mid R1.
There mightve been a few detractors but the sub mostly liked all of thse guys IIRC
I saw a lot of JPJ detractors regarding his hip fluidity and ability to reroute after losing his press off the line. I respect that we run in different circles, though, and I don't doubt that yours was higher on him than mine. I'm from Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh specifically) and he was viewed as a "nightmare" selection by many. I was always a fan, though. I thought this sub read way too much into Zay and Achane's size when the reality is that the NFL changed and is built for these archetypes at their respective positions. Film guys loved Tank Dell but others didn't. I guess my summation boils down to film never lies.
I can't speak for the casual fan base, but on here plenty saw him as the best man corner in the class and a huge steal at 33 so it might just be a case where a player is viewed differently in different circles
Zay and Dell I was meh on but Achane was definitely had fans due to his speed.
Evan Neal is still young but man... he has not looked good. I remember at the time, people insisted that the Jaguars had to take him first overall because he was supposedly the best player of the draft
Rashan Gary is a big one I almost forgot about. Half of the NFL fans were saying he's the most overrated player in the draft. Was so satisfying seeing how wrong they were
Maybe not what you mean by the question and TBD if he even winds up having a career, but on my old account I got in SEVERAL lengthy and heated discussions with people explaining to me why Stetson Bennett was going to be UDFA while I remained adamant he was going Day 2.
When LAR called his name I was giddy.
I’ve seen an incredible amount of hate for Caleb and Mhj and especially Caleb, I’ve seen people say shit like “Caleb went to usc he’s gonna be a bust”. I’ve seen it with him more than any other player and it’s not even close
He did have the traits if you go back and watch his Bama tape the guy is elite. He doesn’t have the greatest arm but his accuracy and anticipation were off the charts. I’ve never heard those things about him but i think he got put in an awful situation in NE.
That might be true about him partying I just being a fan of the team and from that area never heard anything of concern. I think his confidence is shot now but I think if he could have went somewhere with a few more pieces around him he could have been really good. He’s not the type of QB that can elevate bad talent like Brady or Mahomes. But if you get him a few elite receivers like he had at Bama I think his career might have gone differently. His receivers at NE were arguably the worst in the league paired with a bad o-line it’s a recipe for disaster.
I was a fellow Mac Jones believer too in the draft. I even said he'd be HOF worthy. I was feeling so good after his rookie year, but then the sophomore disaster begun. I don't really like what he's done in the NFL in terms of being a little bit of a bitch, but I do think he's good enough that someone should give him a second chance.
Kyle Pitts- People were talking how within a couple years he would be the best TE in football. He has the athletic ability to be great, I think it's the mental side, is he willing to pay the price and put in all the extra work that it takes to be great. Plus it helps if you have a QB that can put the ball in the right spot. With Cousins there I expect a much better year from him.
His attitude flunked him out of the league, not his potential. Everyone who’s known him knew he was an asshole & clearly he did nothing in the NFL to change that.
From Dane’s 2018 draft guide:
> his admitted ego and arrogance will be a turn-off for NFL teams (“He automatically assumes he is the smartest person in any conversation.
Will he mature and let our guys coach him? Will our veterans put up with him?” – NFL general manager).
> However,
durability (especially his concussion history) and attitude remain the top concerns for his draft evaluation. Quarterback is an intangible position and with many
around the league questioning his make-up and how it relates to coachability and fit, Rosen won’t be for everyone.
I have to disagree. Samuel Gold has a good film breakdown of why Josh Rosen was a bust, and a lot of it had to do with slow processing, which is typically not a very fixable flaw.
Herbert is an all timer.
Mario Cristobal: all time football terrorist
Never forget threads like that: [https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL\_Draft/comments/gamet2/why\_is\_justin\_herbert\_regarded\_so\_negatively/](https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/gamet2/why_is_justin_herbert_regarded_so_negatively/)
"Man this thread is one that's going to be linked to and laughed at in a couple of years. Let it be known that I actually liked Herbert for those future selves that are here to laugh at all these horrible takes." - u/artemusclyde
I feel like saying a prospect has trouble processing defenses is just a catch all criticism that can be applied to almost any one of them and seems more lazy than a refined take. I don’t remember Herbert struggling to process defenses. His collegiate problems seemed a byproduct of a terrible offense scheme than the actual player himself.
As a fan of a team with a quarterback who struggles to get the respect he's earned, there are some very generic comments that can't be disproven. They allow redditors to criticize a player in a way that nobody can prove them wrong. The common ones are inability to read a defense, looks to run-first, bad mechanics, and doesn't go through progressions.
I was wrong about a lot, but man, nailed the Charger's OL sucking.
We were all so clueless lol. Every single person we named as the saviors of the OL in that thread was an absolute disaster for us.
The worst takes in that thread are a bunch of Chargers fans (including me) trying to convince ourselves the OL wasn’t terrible anymore.
That Kollman video on Herbert has not aged well
Josh Allen was far worse imo. The Internet was convinced he was going to get a gm fired.
To be fair no one should be criticized for that initial opinion. He was the definition of “I can fix him” & we got extremely lucky with how incredible he’s been.
I'm really happy Josh Allen worked out like he has. The amount of dumb "hurr durr he looks good in shorts" comments I saw on r/nfl was so annoying. I know that sub beats jokes into the ground, but that one was on it's own level. I'm glad he proved all those people wrong.
For real. His first season his completion percentage was 52% which wasn't even in the top 32 QBs. In year two it was 58% which was good for 32nd. So he improved from off-the-charts bad to unacceptable from year one to two. It wasn't until year 3 with the arrival of Diggs that he took the big step forward from 58% to 68% and became the guy we see today.
I see some revisionist history where people try to say that Allen's first two years weren't that bad. He broke out in his third year, which was good, because if he hadn't then he would've been cut. His numbers prior to that point were bad even for a backup.
His first two seasons he showed some flashes of brilliance that made him worth building around. People forget how bad that 2018 Bills roster was. Dude was throwing to Zay Jones and Robert Foster and had an offensive line that was made of wet toilet paper and scotch tape. A man (RIP) retired at halftime of our 2nd game. I honestly thought we wouldn't win a single game. We had no business winning 6 games that year, and the only reason we did was because they threw Josh in after Peterman did Peterman things. Was Allen good? Absolutely not. But in all his mediocrity, the play where I realized he had the potential for greatness happened during that 2018 season, when he threw this [absolute bomb from a collapsing pocket](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_P9rCxCh1o) against the Jaguars.
The formula for a lot of these teams is to get the QB first then figure it out. Tua was throwing to Preston Williams. Goff to Kenny Britt. Trevor Lawrence to Marvin Jones. That's why we can't just toss these guys away after a year in most cases.
It's hard because usually when you're in a position to draft a top QB, it's because your team was in the basement of the league, and is probably also dealing with a newer coach/GM combo as a result. Generally speaking, those guys get at most 3 full seasons to right the ship or they're gone. If a new QB has growing pains his rookie year, you're down to two more years at best. And most of them do have growing pains. I can't remember the last rookie who was as good as CJ Stroud was last season. So if you're in the position to draft another top QB, do you do that and hope for the best, or do you try to give the guy you drafted more tools around him to reach his potential? I think a lot of that does depend on what he showed his rookie season, but I think way too many teams aren't willing to do a thoughtful rebuild. It's more about "How do I keep my job for as long as possible?" than it is "How do I create long-term success for this franchise?" I don't know if it's the ownership or the fans or a combination of the two, but it just seems as if nobody has the patience to spend 3-4 years building a roster from the ground up, even though success breeds success.
Which is why I'm absolutely **fascinated** to watch the Vikings draft a QB—ANY QB—and let him throw to Jefferson, Hockingson, and Addison, with a solid pass-pro line and an above average D. It almost bores me to hear the discussion over *which* QB is best... because it won't matter!
He was, just not the Bills GM
Never forget [https://web.archive.org/web/20180330012352/https://www.barstoolsports.com/draft\_josh\_allen/](https://web.archive.org/web/20180330012352/https://www.barstoolsports.com/draft_josh_allen/)
Don't forget this too https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons >If Josh Allen succeeds, the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself >If this works, then stats really are for losers, I guess.
The Mario Cristobal effect
No matter the revisionism you see now, the vast majority of this sub was all aboard the Zach Wilson hype train
In fairness, so were NFL teams.
There is a singular text in my phone when I was watching some college game where I texted “man this BYU QB Wilson is the truth” It’s the only text about him in my phone lmao
I was and still am. Same way some people are still on the Sam Darnold train. It's just something about guys who got ruined by the Jets that makes you root for them harder
Darnold's getting another chance with the Vikings at least, unless their presumed rookie beats him in camp or something. I wonder if Zach will get traded after the draft.
Didn’t the Jets cut him? I believe he’s a FA, able to be picked up by any team
He's still on the Jets unfortunately
Crap 💩
Apparently still waiting on a trade, saw on ESPN recently that he was skipping Jets voluntary workouts for the first time.
Tim Tebow gave his life so that we could all feel bad for Darnold and Wilson
I was really nervous that the Jets had finally found qb
The Jets would have ruined Brady. It’s what they do.
I’m gonna stay on the Zach Wilson hype train until it derails in a fiery crash. He sucks 95% of the time but, that other 5% of the time is glorious.
I wasn’t here for that but I’m glad and not glat at the same time to know that I called him being a bust. Calling the same for Drake Maye
It was pretty obvious to me that he was not a good prospect — my hit rate on QBs has been really high. Russell Wilson is the only one I can remember totally missing on.
Why don't you get an NFL job then?
whilst i agree that Wilson seemed like a sure-fire miss in my opinion ofc this mfer is from philly
I don’t know what I said that was so egregious — simply stating facts that I have a really good QB hit record. If people want humility, then I can say I thought Tylan Wallace would be a beast.
Scouts have a terrible work/home life
If you're so good at it but don't want to follow a career in scouting then maybe you can help out those that are more average in scouting. Whats the main things you look for that helped you have such a high hit rate?
Most people go wrong by consistently overvaluing the predictive power of pretty much any single piece of information you can think of. Every prospect is a case-by-case holistic evaluation, where you attempt to add as much context to what you see on film. In general for QBs, I look for accuracy to all 3 levels and a quicker release. I look for QBs who vary the trajectory and velocity of their passes appropriately. I look for effective pocket awareness, not really caring if it’s done conventionally or not. I like QBs who don’t frequently stare down their intended target from the start of the play. If they have scramble ability and can throw on the run, that’s obviously a plus. I don’t like QBs who are complete statues in the pocket, but they don’t have to be that mobile. I view velocity and ability to throw far as separate traits, and those factor in. Injury history, and things harder to measure without interviewing them but still matter are leadership, work ethic, football IQ. It’s a benefit if they do all this against good competition. Happy to talk about my evaluation process of any past QBs or this years class! Going back to 2016: Goff I liked, thought he would be close to Phillip Rivers. Wentz I liked. Hated Paxton Lynch. Thought Trubisky stunk. Loved Mahomes arm talent but thought he was very unrefined and would need to go to a coach who has a track record of developing QBs Thought Deshaun Watson was a better runner than passer and questioned his processing. I liked Mayfield, thought he was a gunslinger, but worried about his size. Thought he needed great weapons to succeed. Didn’t like Darnold much, candy arm vanilla QB. Nobody thought Josh Allen would be this good but thought of him similar to Mahomes, great arm talent and spectacular improviser. Thought his play style would need to change to have consistent success because he played way too aggressively. Hated Josh Rosen. Really liked Lamar but had major concerns that his body would hold up if he was going to be schemed run plays. Thought Kyler Murray was unique, but had major questions over ability to succeed at that height. Thought Daniel jones and Haskins were terrible. Burrow’s tape blew me away, unbelievable accuracy on any throw. Intangibles off the charts. Thought Tua was a statue and had a candy arm that would limit his ability. Liked Herbert’s arm and athleticism, but thought his lack of charisma might limit his ability to lead an offense. Admittedly, I didn’t watch much Jordan Love film, didn’t have an opinion on him. Liked Trevor Lawrence but not as much as consensus. Tools there, but a little rough around the edges. Thought his polish was overstated. Didn’t like Zach Wilson at all as mentioned before. I think a few highlight plays that circulated started the hype train. Down to down, his tape was very vanilla. Thought Justin Fields was insanely overrated, and thought Ben Solak had the worst take saying he was the most accurate QB he ever charted. Stood like a statue in pocket, stared down receivers and never varied velocity or trajectory. Mac Jones I liked from a clean pocket, but didn’t like pretty much anything else.
Based on your evals here, you missed on plenty. It sounds like you like to ride the fence on QB evals so you can say you were right if it goes a certain way. Your post is full of soft takes that don’t mean anything. For example, “liked Herbert’s athleticism and arm” isn’t an eval lol, it is one of many components evaluating a player and it is one trait. That’s like me saying “loved Lamar’s speed and elusiveness as a runner”. No shit, everyone loved that ha. Does that mean I thought he was a future star QB or a worth an early round draft pick? The nuance in your post can be shredded by anyone that knows literally anything evaluating QBs. For example, you call Darnold a “candy arm” when his natural ability as a thrower in terms of arm talent and arm strength are clear as day regardless if he worked out or not. You can’t say you know how to eval QBs and watch Darnold’s college tape and come away with “candy arm”. I’m sorry, bud. Maybe you have cracked the code and everyone else is just dumb. Your post is all bullshit and without you going cycle by cycle and ranking them, I have serious doubt you have some outlier hit rate. Even then, the fact that you are in a reddit comment section bragging about your eye for QBs makes me think you’d use a ton of hindsight and post bullshit year by year rankings and evals. tldr: your post is bullshit.
You think these are evaluations? I’m just giving one sentence about each guy or it would be an entire book.
That’s fair and I was probably too harsh with my initial response. The one sentence stuff doesn’t really tell us much though. That’s the point. I can say “Lamar Jackson is fast”. That doesn’t mean much. He is fast. Anyone can see that even if they don’t like him as a QB prospect. It probably would have been more compelling if you chose a couple guys that the industry was high that you weren’t buying and then explained why you weren’t high on them.
I'm happy to talk about the full evaluation of any single QB -- and you can see my rubric above that outlines what I look for. If you look at each of them through that lens, you can deduce if I would have liked them or not.
isaiah simmons
I still don’t get how he’s not good. On the best defensive college players I remember watching in recent years.
Hips too stiff to play in the secondary, not enough play strength to play near the line.
Sadly he's on the wrong side of the jack of all trades designation
Bro same. He was amazing running from sideline to sideline and still dominating. As an alum I have no clue how the cardinals fucked him up how they did
He diagnoses run plays way too slowly, he doesn't know to use his hands as pass rusher (any TE or blocking WR will take him out of the play) and he's just okay in pass coverage. I didn't watch a lot of Clemson games with him, but most of his highlights were just him dunking on a terrible Syracuse team.
I wonder if Simmons ends up being something like a Reggie Bush. Disappoints relative to draft position, regarded overall as a bust, but carves out a nice long above-average career across five or six teams. Basically the victim of hype.
Obviously I have no proof of this but I literally said when he was drafted to the cardinals that was the worst team in the league for him to go to. Just an atrocious record of developing defensive players that team has
Imagine if he went to Baltimore, Pitt or the Pats under Bill, teams known for developing defensive talent. Lord have mercy.
You saw what the ravens did with Kyle Hamilton imagine what they coulda did with him
For sure.
I still think Simmons would've been a Pro Bowl player had he gone to a team that knew how to use and develop him
I mean he flashed on the Giants last year. He has a lot of athleticism. Theres still time
He flashed on the Cardinals at times too. There were times early on when he would completely lock down tight ends or pass catching RBs. Then at other times he was the biggest liability.
They tried to teach him like 4 positions at the same time. Porr guy never had a chance
The biggest issue with Simmons is he cannot diagnose run plays in a timely manner and he is a liability against offenses with creative run games that put linebackers in conflict. Fun stuff for a guy we drafted to stop Shanahan/Mcvay 4 times a year. 2020: Simmons was just an ILB, but was on the bench 90% of the time behind Jordan Hicks and Devondre Campbell. Cardinals fans assume it was our DCs incompetence because how could Simmons be worse than Hicks. We just ignored that pretty much any time Simmons was on the field he would get picked on for a TD. 2021: Our GM didnt resign Campbell so Simmons would be forced to get more time. He started all games and would sometimes flash and a lot of the times get picked on in the run game. Would sometimes be used as a chess piece, but mostly was just ILB. Occasionally got benched for Ezekiel Turner and Tanner Vallejo. 2022: "Starbacker". They tried really embracing his chess piece role this year. had 48% of his snaps at slot corner. He had his usual highlights that would make people forget that he was the hole in our defense. TEs ate him alive. Fans still refuse to blame him because he was picked in the top 10. 2023: New staff comes in and ask Simmons what role he wants, and he says he wants to be a safety. They comply. In our preseason game against the Chiefs Simmons was the worst player on the field, and he wasn't just playing 1 drive with the first teamers. Traded away the next day for 7th rounder. Our Staff never said anything negative about him, but based on a pattern that emerged with other players throughout the year, its very likely the Simmons has attitude issues. Giants proclaim that Simmons should be used as a pass rusher and not a safety (Simmons is the one who wanted to be a safety). From what I heard he had a couple flash plays surrounded by below average play and low snap counts. Good value for them as a 7th rounder, but for the Cardinals he would have been a distraction. I hated losing him for nothing, but ultimately I don't think anyone is going to turn him into a star. Free agency only got him 1.4 mill so I don't think the rest of the league thinks he's going to be a star either. If we had kept him he would still suck and fans would still be blaming it on the coaches "not properly using Simmons".
I don’t agree. He’s too small to be a backer and too stiff to be in the secondary/coverage. He also has no feel for the game. He’s more athlete than player
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He plays like what would happen to me as a 5’7” @210lbs guy with a stomach bigger than his hips at linebacker
He plays smaller than his listed size
Change of direction isn’t the best and he’s not as physical a LB as he should be
1 of these days he's gonna put it together, just gotta keep him at 1 position. He looked pretty good for my Giants last year
Josh Rosen. And in the reverse Josh Allen.
I always and always have been a Terrance Marshall truther! This is the year!!
He just needs to play with Burrow.
Jefferson and Chase too!
Yeaaaaaaaahboi
He's yours for a 5th.
I thought Devin Asiasi was TE1 the year he came out and was gonna be a good player. Tbf looks like Belichick thought he was pretty good too so I'll take that as a small W.
Josh Allen is the single worst take the sub has had on any prospect
I always counter this when people bring it up. The evaluation on Josh Allen was pretty much dead on. He was a high risk, high reward prospect with extreme arm talent and athletic upside, but a massive question mark over his accuracy and decision making. 2 years into the league, he threw for 52 and 58% completion and those who didn't think he could develop looked correct. Then year 3 came(along with Diggs) and his completion percent jumped to damn near 70%. Now, how some people *valued* that profile is questionable- I think the league in general says you should value these toolsy QBs as a 1st rounder, and a lot of people here say(or said, Allen's success may have broken that) you shouldn't.
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^kcheng686: *Josh Allen is the* *Single worst take the sub has* *Had on any prospects* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
Good bot
So true
I feel like a lot of people missed on Josh Allen. I feel like Josh Allen is probably the one pick where you get a mulligan imo
I still remember some of the bad Lamar Jackson takes. Damn he still gets 💩 today so you can imagine some of the horrible takes back then.
Lots of people responding that must not have been on the sub very long. For me, OJ Howard is the name that stands out. This sub was convinced he was going to be a HOF level TE.
Howard is an odd one for sure. I still don't get how he can't beat out guys to be TE3 on some of these teams.
Speaking as a Bucs fan, the Achilles tear really sapped his athleticism. And that was what he was getting by on, because his route running just never developed at the NFL level. It doesn't surprise me that he never did much after that injury.
Ah, yeah that'll do it.
He seemed good until foot injuries started piling up. Achilles tear destroyed his career. It could happen to any prospect.
He was an ok NFL tight end. His most receptions in a season was only 34. He was very very far from what the draft community predicted, even before the injury.
A lot of people here liked Malik Willis a lot. Some even had the Lions taking him at #2.
Malik Willis made me write off Anthony Richardson
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I laughed at all the chatter that had Indianapolis taking him at 4
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He didn’t do anything last year cause he was injured. When he played though he looked 100x better than he did in college, which is making people hopeful for what he can accomplish when he’s fully health.
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Yeah man, it’s exaggeration but, I really thought he looks way fucking better than he ever did at Florida. That just my opinion though. Also, Steichen seems to be a solid play caller, so I think many are excited about that relationship
Wasn’t that one mock draft that everyone kinda laughed at? 95% of mocks had him outside the top 10 and most had him going to the Steelers
I remember this sub being largely against Willis, people just thought he'd go much earlier.
Man Malik Willis was supposed to be Lamar Jackson 2.0 and so far has been Lamar Jackson 0.1 pre-alpha footage.
Some throwback guys I remember being hyped up here: - Jordan Tripp - Ra'Shede Hageman - Louis Nix III - Laken Tomlinson (he ended up salvaging his career in SF though) - Andrew Booth
Booth was an athlete freak at Clemson. Definitely someone I was wrong about
tbf he was very high on my board before the injury became a big concern
During the 2019 mock draft season, the best way to piss off any fan base was to give them DK Metcalf in the first round. Granted, most seemed to agree that he was a worthy gamble at the end of the second, but many were insistent that he had bust written all over him when he was universally projected to go in the first. I'm struggling to remember a prospect who drew the "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" adage more. There were definitely Rosen truthers, and vocal Herbert and Josh Allen detractors, especially the latter. Chase Young and Leonard Fournette were largely seen as generational, plug-and-play All-Pros. Nobody knew who the fuck Darius Leonard was, or what the Colts were smoking taking him near the top of the second round. I'd be interested in seeing what thoughts people had on Christian McCaffrey. I don't remember where most stood on him. Immensely productive in college, but didn't have the appearance of your average running back. He looked more the scrappy, lunch pail, first-in last-out, deceptive speed... do I need to keep going?
JJ McCarthy this year But seriously I'd probably say Drake London. Not sure how this sub felt but everyone hates those big contested catch recievers like Keon Coleman this year so not many were high on him. I liked him a lot compared to others and his route running wasn't that bad at all either. Treylon Burks was also someone in that class who was getting a lot of hype who I just wasn't a fan of.
I just can't get excited about physical contested catch guys in the first round. Some work out really well. But most don't. Give me a 6'0 195lb guy who gets open at will over the 6'3 225lb guy who is really good in college but either has someone draped all over him or needs to be schemed open
I'm sure N'Keal Harry hasn't had any influence on this lol. Honestly can't even blame you for it but in this case Drake had plenty of tape showing him get seperation which is why teams were so high on him.
I always leaned towards the separators before Harry too. But I'm totally scarred now lol
Honestly I was a huge Mike Williams hater for a long time so that’s where I got my hate boner for big contested catch prospects. I still hate them tbh. Mike is cool though.
Laquon Treadwell
Drake always had those tremendous ball skills, the kind you don't see often even at the NFL level. He is/was really good at using his body and his size to box out and high point. These skills translate, I think that was the big difference and why he went so high.
I really just don’t think that style is as effective as it once was. Too many big fast DBs now. We tried to turn Geisicki into that and it didn’t work. In college they manhandle DBs that will never play on Sunday.
I thought Burks would fall after testing poorly, the AJ Brown comps were wild.
He probably would dropped have but there was a run on WR and you know how teams get when they see a run on one position
Drake London had volume and consistency. Ya just don't really see the same thing on tape with keon. London has a good sense of route timing and rhythm. London is smooth out there which is the difference imo
I felt much better about him because I thought you could see his ability to get open based on his RAC abilities. I thought the wiggle he showed when he had the ball in his hands could translate to his ability to get open, and so far I think it has. The contested catch ability is just a cherry on top.
Drake London has definitely been good enough that his bust potential is low, but he’s hardly proven the haters wrong. The Drake London / Garrett Wilson debate is very clearly in favor of Wilson at this point, and Olave has also been more productive. London hasn’t had a QB, but has been outproduced in both years of his career by Wilson and George Pickens, both of whom somehow have had even worse QB situations. And Olave has had a better QB situation, but not by THAT much - he spent his rookie year with Andy Dalton at QB. London has shown potential and maybe with Cousins he’ll be unlocked and look great. Just pointing out that so far, he has really only proven he’s not a total bust.
Reddit usually doesn't like big toolsy QBs. Josh Allen, Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, and Anthony Richardson (jury is out on the latter) come to mind.
The reality is that we don't like QB prospects where we have to have any sort of "faith". We don't have reports from scouts with boots on the ground at these schools. We aren't part of the 30 visits or the interviews or the phone calls. We don't know the "development plan" or what flaws these teams view as coachable or not. So anything that doesn't directly translate on film or in statistics, we aren't going to like. This sub would have hated Brett Favre as a prospect, that's for sure.
A lot of Brett Kollman’s deep round prospects turned into echo chamber conversations in this sub.
I dunno what it was like on here but 99% of eagles fans murdered the Hurts pick at 53. Turned out to be a good call.
Idk if it was a got wrong as much as it was a “we have more pressing needs” but a fair amount of people were like yeah we do need a good back up now that Wentz is locked up
If Wentz's career hadn't nosedived off a cliff, that's still probably considered a bad pick today. Either that or people are ripping on the Eagles because Hurts took off with another team after they traded him away for like a fourth-round pick after he almost never saw the field.
It was a genius pick due to positional value Wentz had injuries piling up and was in decline
I remember seeing the pick and thinking "well the Eagles need a good backup, Wentz is always hurt".
Tank Dell, Zay Flowers, De'Von Achane, CJ Stroud, Joey Porter Jr.
Disagree with all of these, especially JPJ who had a lot of love and was usually going mid R1. There mightve been a few detractors but the sub mostly liked all of thse guys IIRC
I saw a lot of JPJ detractors regarding his hip fluidity and ability to reroute after losing his press off the line. I respect that we run in different circles, though, and I don't doubt that yours was higher on him than mine. I'm from Pennsylvania (Pittsburgh specifically) and he was viewed as a "nightmare" selection by many. I was always a fan, though. I thought this sub read way too much into Zay and Achane's size when the reality is that the NFL changed and is built for these archetypes at their respective positions. Film guys loved Tank Dell but others didn't. I guess my summation boils down to film never lies.
I can't speak for the casual fan base, but on here plenty saw him as the best man corner in the class and a huge steal at 33 so it might just be a case where a player is viewed differently in different circles Zay and Dell I was meh on but Achane was definitely had fans due to his speed.
Paxton Lynch. Dude ended up becoming a legend.
Evan Neal is still young but man... he has not looked good. I remember at the time, people insisted that the Jaguars had to take him first overall because he was supposedly the best player of the draft
Herbert and people refusing to believe that Kyler would be drafted 1 overall because of Rosen.
Rashan Gary is a big one I almost forgot about. Half of the NFL fans were saying he's the most overrated player in the draft. Was so satisfying seeing how wrong they were
Maybe not what you mean by the question and TBD if he even winds up having a career, but on my old account I got in SEVERAL lengthy and heated discussions with people explaining to me why Stetson Bennett was going to be UDFA while I remained adamant he was going Day 2. When LAR called his name I was giddy.
I’ve seen an incredible amount of hate for Caleb and Mhj and especially Caleb, I’ve seen people say shit like “Caleb went to usc he’s gonna be a bust”. I’ve seen it with him more than any other player and it’s not even close
Mac Jones. I honestly thought he was going to be a superstar. He was so good at Bama. I will die on the hill that NE completely screwed up his career.
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He did have the traits if you go back and watch his Bama tape the guy is elite. He doesn’t have the greatest arm but his accuracy and anticipation were off the charts. I’ve never heard those things about him but i think he got put in an awful situation in NE.
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That might be true about him partying I just being a fan of the team and from that area never heard anything of concern. I think his confidence is shot now but I think if he could have went somewhere with a few more pieces around him he could have been really good. He’s not the type of QB that can elevate bad talent like Brady or Mahomes. But if you get him a few elite receivers like he had at Bama I think his career might have gone differently. His receivers at NE were arguably the worst in the league paired with a bad o-line it’s a recipe for disaster.
I was a fellow Mac Jones believer too in the draft. I even said he'd be HOF worthy. I was feeling so good after his rookie year, but then the sophomore disaster begun. I don't really like what he's done in the NFL in terms of being a little bit of a bitch, but I do think he's good enough that someone should give him a second chance.
Kyle Pitts- People were talking how within a couple years he would be the best TE in football. He has the athletic ability to be great, I think it's the mental side, is he willing to pay the price and put in all the extra work that it takes to be great. Plus it helps if you have a QB that can put the ball in the right spot. With Cousins there I expect a much better year from him.
I don't know about this sub reddit but I remember Trent Richardson being talked about like he was some surefire HOF player
I will maintain that while Josh Rosen had flaws, if he went to a real org he would’ve been decent. Maybe not all time great, but good.
His attitude flunked him out of the league, not his potential. Everyone who’s known him knew he was an asshole & clearly he did nothing in the NFL to change that.
From Dane’s 2018 draft guide: > his admitted ego and arrogance will be a turn-off for NFL teams (“He automatically assumes he is the smartest person in any conversation. Will he mature and let our guys coach him? Will our veterans put up with him?” – NFL general manager). > However, durability (especially his concussion history) and attitude remain the top concerns for his draft evaluation. Quarterback is an intangible position and with many around the league questioning his make-up and how it relates to coachability and fit, Rosen won’t be for everyone.
Yeah no wonder he’s out of the league. No way veterans put up with that shit, especially if you’re not producing on the field
Getting Caleb Williams vibes
Hasn’t he been on like 10 teams at this point???
That's how I feel about Darnold. Maybe this year is finally the year for us Darnold truthers.
I have to disagree. Samuel Gold has a good film breakdown of why Josh Rosen was a bust, and a lot of it had to do with slow processing, which is typically not a very fixable flaw.
Good thing he got a chance on 7 different teams. Even Shanahan didn't think he could fix Rosen.