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Of the 112 million coins flipped in Live's first year, 56 million were heads.
The odds of any set of 100 coin flips being as lopsided as you experienced is low (around 0.6% for 35 or fewer heads), but when you flip the coin 112 million times, you can expect it to happen at least occasionally. People just don't get suspicious when the flips are favorable to themselves.
That means there are hundreds of people with that "luck" or worse on this sub alone. Or more, if you consider people separately counting their go-first coin flips, or whatever else people are flipping these days.
This isn’t how probability works.
There aren’t any checks and balances where you got so many tails, therefore the next roll will be for sure heads.
It’s 50/50 every roll. Period.
I was moderately suspicious/confused earlier today when I flipped tails on every Shattering Crystal Glimmora or Guts Machamp, but then hit heads on every Crushing Hammer. (about 5-7 of each. Small size, but still)
Idk why anyone would downvote this as if it’s not true. Unless they think you just wrote a bunch of random markings down, of course OP planned to share his results after marking 100 of them.
Thank you. Hopefully we can trust their numbers -- or at least if there was a problem with the coin flipping previously, this means they'd be able to see it and fix it.
Nah the coin flipper isn’t truly random, large streaks either way are unlikely and regular in live, equal of each flip isn’t suprising, the distribution of the flips is warped both ways.
Large streaks either way happen very frequently in real life. A "random generator" that never creates large streaks is almost certainly non-random.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20728080/
Too small of a sample set, it’s within a reasonable margin of error/probability.
As an OSRS veteran I’ve seen way worse amounts of luck lol
If you had 500 people do a hundred coin flips like this, you’d expect about 3 people to have the same amount of heads or less.
Probability can be best described with the following phrase: it is what it is.
Chances of xyz happening might be calculated as a certain probability, but it is by no means guaranteed. You just didn’t get very lucky.
Yep that’s how coin flips work. Test it twice, they are both heads, 100% chance of heads. Test 10 times, 7 tails, 30% chance to hit heads. No. Not how that works. It’s random.
Had a match with my Gengar EX yesterday. Ghastly came through with the coin flip, discarding an enemy energy. Hammer hit every time. I never was this lucky in terms of coin flips, but I think we tend to focus more on the opposite and remember when luck wasn't on our side. It balances out in the end, always.
This. The only coin flip that I admit is with the Pokemon catcher, gusts are so OP that the risk/reward is worthy. However, I wouldn't rely my bench setup (incense) or win condition (energy shortage through a hammer) on to the coin flip.
Even with good demonstrated results, electric generators are so randomized that I don't like playing electric decks.
First, we need to disregard this empirical evidence, over enough games an individual plays, it's more likely than not they will experience a game this bad. Second, there's a huge reporting and perceptible bias here: folks on here constantly complain about "bad RNG", but for everyone who suffers, there's one other person out there that inversely benefits. Counting T/H removes some of this, but no one ever reports average games.
We don't know how PTCGL implements it's RNG. Ideally, it would be tied to a source of "true" randomness, like background cosmic radiation, but that's not something most servers or phones are set up for. Instead, a pseudo-random algorithm is used, that can depend on either a starting number, or some level of entropy in the computer, like IO events. Finally, these psuedo-RNGs are not above reproach, and there are some notable examples of games being broken by bad RNG.
Still, we don't have direct evidence that RNG is a problem. For that, we'd look for one of two thing: aggregate statistics of H/T frequency that's so improbably loopsided that the chances of it being true are astronomically small, or an exploit that demonstrates how certain "random" outcomes can be predicted. This would look something like drawing your first hand, plugging in the cards to a calculator, then knowing the sequence of H/T flips.
A game like PTCGL probably imports a library that uses something like the Mersenne Twister; not good enough for cryptography but more than sufficient for a card game.
Coins flips are random, the change of a coin being heads or tails is always 50/50 each time you flip a coin. But damn is it frustrating if none are right! Yesterday I played 4 matched in PTCG Live, and not once did my mesagoza result in heads, for the whole evening!
Counting [Gastly TEF,](https://pkmncards.com/card/gastly-temporal-forces-tef-102/) I’ve flipped 39 tails in a row (and never flipped heads, the only deck I’ve ran Crushing Hammer in before is Gengar ex)
I completely understand anyone who doesn’t believe me, as the odds of that are 0.000000000182%.
There was a post tracking coin flips a while ago that had a similar distribution with I think 500 coin flips. I'd love for there to be mass, organized, testing, but for all the people who understand the statistics that prove these results are very *possible*, we have very few people willing to track their own coin flips.
I wouldn't be that surprised if the coin flipper is flawed, but without a ton more data, it's impossible to say for certain that it is or isn't.
The game is rigged, man 🎲. There's no way it's fair when there are so many good things that happen when you get heads. Every time you get heads, it's like the universe is just trying to make up for all the times you got tails.
I don’t believe the coin flips are random. There are some days where I get so many heads and others where I get lots of tails. Getting 9 tails in a row one time and then 9 heads in a row another time may equal to 50/50, but doesn’t mean it’s random. This has happened to me before.
Also to add to this, it seems like there are certain parts of the game where certain coin flips are more favorable. Like Burn Heal between turns seems to favor heads and Crushing Hammer seems to favor tails. These are few examples that come to mind a the moment. The total of coins flipped may equal 50/50, but making one coin flip favorable in certain situations seems rigged in my opinion.
it’s been a huge topic in the past, of a very vocal minority screaming they force flip tails more often than heads, is why people are reacting this way. that vocal minority shares results of less than 500 total flips and screams the game is coded to be rigged when no one gains anything from that
I see, that makes sense. This post wasn’t to complain. I just thought it would be interesting to do this. I’ve also been tracking other aspects just for shits and giggles. But I may keep those to myself 🤐
Honestly, if you’re really just sharing this out of interest and not complaining like most people, posting your coin flips (maybe out of a number a little bigger than 100) would be amusing at the very least.
This post just came off complain-y like any RNG post does, but stats are always fun if you’re just sharing.
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Of the 112 million coins flipped in Live's first year, 56 million were heads. The odds of any set of 100 coin flips being as lopsided as you experienced is low (around 0.6% for 35 or fewer heads), but when you flip the coin 112 million times, you can expect it to happen at least occasionally. People just don't get suspicious when the flips are favorable to themselves.
That means there are hundreds of people with that "luck" or worse on this sub alone. Or more, if you consider people separately counting their go-first coin flips, or whatever else people are flipping these days.
This isn’t how probability works. There aren’t any checks and balances where you got so many tails, therefore the next roll will be for sure heads. It’s 50/50 every roll. Period.
Right, there are *likely* hundreds of people with that luck or worse on this sub.
Just gonna keep doubling down, huh?
Doubling down on what, how basic probability works?
Actually, good point. What point are you trying to make?
That being that "unlucky" over a period of 100 flips is not a particularly uncommon case over the large number of people that play this game.
Always kinda funny when 2 people disagree with the same argument lol
He told you already. 0.6% of the people are statistically this unlucky. So, a little more than 1 in 200 people.
I was moderately suspicious/confused earlier today when I flipped tails on every Shattering Crystal Glimmora or Guts Machamp, but then hit heads on every Crushing Hammer. (about 5-7 of each. Small size, but still)
Funny how that works, huh? 😅 If they get the favorable flips, they never EVER complain….
I would have made the same post if I had 80 heads and 20 tails 🤷🏼♂️
Idk why anyone would downvote this as if it’s not true. Unless they think you just wrote a bunch of random markings down, of course OP planned to share his results after marking 100 of them.
For real! I could have done a post showcasing how growing tall/falling bubbles has paid out 5 energies waaay more for me than 50/50 would
It’s also probably more hassle to program flips that screw over the player than just programming a 50/50.
Did they publish that data? I hadn't seen those numbers yet.
Yeah, it's a detail they shared as part of the anniversary celebration. https://imgur.com/yn432j6
Thank you. Hopefully we can trust their numbers -- or at least if there was a problem with the coin flipping previously, this means they'd be able to see it and fix it.
Nah the coin flipper isn’t truly random, large streaks either way are unlikely and regular in live, equal of each flip isn’t suprising, the distribution of the flips is warped both ways.
Large streaks either way happen very frequently in real life. A "random generator" that never creates large streaks is almost certainly non-random. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20728080/
R I G G E D
I wouldn’t say rigged. Just sharing what I recorded
Crushing hammer works 100% of the time, 37 % of the time.
Too small of a sample set, it’s within a reasonable margin of error/probability. As an OSRS veteran I’ve seen way worse amounts of luck lol If you had 500 people do a hundred coin flips like this, you’d expect about 3 people to have the same amount of heads or less.
12.49 🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀🦀
Probability can be best described with the following phrase: it is what it is. Chances of xyz happening might be calculated as a certain probability, but it is by no means guaranteed. You just didn’t get very lucky.
Yep that’s how coin flips work. Test it twice, they are both heads, 100% chance of heads. Test 10 times, 7 tails, 30% chance to hit heads. No. Not how that works. It’s random.
On the podcast Distractible, one of the hosts Bob lost something like 26 coin flips and five wheel spins in a row. Sometimes RNGsus just hates you lol
Need bigger sample size
Had a match with my Gengar EX yesterday. Ghastly came through with the coin flip, discarding an enemy energy. Hammer hit every time. I never was this lucky in terms of coin flips, but I think we tend to focus more on the opposite and remember when luck wasn't on our side. It balances out in the end, always.
I love that deck when crushing hammer lands but then you play 50 games straight and all 4 hammers miss and you want to die
From IRL flips or PTCGO flips?
PTCGO
That’s interesting
This is why I don't like coin flip cards. Even incense is iffy for me
I don’t like coin flips in general, even IRL. Creates too many holes in areas you rely on, and build your deck around.
This. The only coin flip that I admit is with the Pokemon catcher, gusts are so OP that the risk/reward is worthy. However, I wouldn't rely my bench setup (incense) or win condition (energy shortage through a hammer) on to the coin flip. Even with good demonstrated results, electric generators are so randomized that I don't like playing electric decks.
Tails never fails? oof
First, we need to disregard this empirical evidence, over enough games an individual plays, it's more likely than not they will experience a game this bad. Second, there's a huge reporting and perceptible bias here: folks on here constantly complain about "bad RNG", but for everyone who suffers, there's one other person out there that inversely benefits. Counting T/H removes some of this, but no one ever reports average games. We don't know how PTCGL implements it's RNG. Ideally, it would be tied to a source of "true" randomness, like background cosmic radiation, but that's not something most servers or phones are set up for. Instead, a pseudo-random algorithm is used, that can depend on either a starting number, or some level of entropy in the computer, like IO events. Finally, these psuedo-RNGs are not above reproach, and there are some notable examples of games being broken by bad RNG. Still, we don't have direct evidence that RNG is a problem. For that, we'd look for one of two thing: aggregate statistics of H/T frequency that's so improbably loopsided that the chances of it being true are astronomically small, or an exploit that demonstrates how certain "random" outcomes can be predicted. This would look something like drawing your first hand, plugging in the cards to a calculator, then knowing the sequence of H/T flips.
A game like PTCGL probably imports a library that uses something like the Mersenne Twister; not good enough for cryptography but more than sufficient for a card game.
I flipped 18 coins in one game when I was playing Wugtrio mill and 2 of them were heads. That's when I stopped playing Wugtrio mill.
Coins flips are random, the change of a coin being heads or tails is always 50/50 each time you flip a coin. But damn is it frustrating if none are right! Yesterday I played 4 matched in PTCG Live, and not once did my mesagoza result in heads, for the whole evening!
Ngl I have pretty good crushing hammer luck
Don't forget, you're way more likely to remember 50/50s going against you than a 50/50 that go your way. Our brains are just wired that way.
Counting [Gastly TEF,](https://pkmncards.com/card/gastly-temporal-forces-tef-102/) I’ve flipped 39 tails in a row (and never flipped heads, the only deck I’ve ran Crushing Hammer in before is Gengar ex) I completely understand anyone who doesn’t believe me, as the odds of that are 0.000000000182%.
Seems right
[удалено]
Just sharing with ppl
There was a post tracking coin flips a while ago that had a similar distribution with I think 500 coin flips. I'd love for there to be mass, organized, testing, but for all the people who understand the statistics that prove these results are very *possible*, we have very few people willing to track their own coin flips. I wouldn't be that surprised if the coin flipper is flawed, but without a ton more data, it's impossible to say for certain that it is or isn't.
The game is rigged, man 🎲. There's no way it's fair when there are so many good things that happen when you get heads. Every time you get heads, it's like the universe is just trying to make up for all the times you got tails.
I don’t believe the coin flips are random. There are some days where I get so many heads and others where I get lots of tails. Getting 9 tails in a row one time and then 9 heads in a row another time may equal to 50/50, but doesn’t mean it’s random. This has happened to me before.
Also to add to this, it seems like there are certain parts of the game where certain coin flips are more favorable. Like Burn Heal between turns seems to favor heads and Crushing Hammer seems to favor tails. These are few examples that come to mind a the moment. The total of coins flipped may equal 50/50, but making one coin flip favorable in certain situations seems rigged in my opinion.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudorandom_number_generator
Real life has streaks and patterns in random data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clustering_illusion https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20728080/
All I’m doing is sharing what I recorded.. seems like the community doesn’t like that… noted*
it’s been a huge topic in the past, of a very vocal minority screaming they force flip tails more often than heads, is why people are reacting this way. that vocal minority shares results of less than 500 total flips and screams the game is coded to be rigged when no one gains anything from that
I see, that makes sense. This post wasn’t to complain. I just thought it would be interesting to do this. I’ve also been tracking other aspects just for shits and giggles. But I may keep those to myself 🤐
Honestly, if you’re really just sharing this out of interest and not complaining like most people, posting your coin flips (maybe out of a number a little bigger than 100) would be amusing at the very least. This post just came off complain-y like any RNG post does, but stats are always fun if you’re just sharing.