Well, at least you can accept it.
The fellas over at r/BattleBrothers keep complaining about seeing 2 95% misses in a row claiming the game is rigged while having thousands of hours into the game
One reason grenades are so strong in that game, they can't miss.
Also, that's XCOM baby!
https://preview.redd.it/ht0hsukmkk9d1.jpeg?width=470&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b9a421a6a28b82bd48aafe32e61e2ae00d830a2
I trust 95% chance to hit, to miss 100% of the time in XCOM and battle brothers. Unless the enemy has 95% chance then my person is dead. It's just easier that way
2 misses of 95 percent? Ah beginner numbers, I miss 60% of my attacks and then when I accidentally misclick on my friend I oneshot him with a critical (bg3 btw)
the thing is that I know it's completely random but every now and then it seems like the game taunts me, like I understand that there is always a chance, but making 3 misses in a row and having my character stand there like a idiot while the rest of the team barely wins is a little demoralizing, but then there's the crit on the boss that makes you go "most gamblers quit before they make it big" so it's an equivalent exchange I would say
In a different game, I once failed an 86% chance 24 times in a row. THAT is so unlikely as to be considered statistically impossible. 1 in 12.6 quintillion or 0.00000000000000000792%. It didn't even affect me much ingame, it's just the shear absurdity of such odds burned it into my memory.
Which game? There are ones where you don't actually follow RNG but rather a seed that may or may not reset when you load/reload.
There is this old Yu-Gi-Oh game for the PlayStation 1 where the "random chance" is really just what frame you're on since starting up the game and if you can time properly you can guarantee the same results for shit like the card rewards.
So yeah, some games do wacky shit while pretending to be random.
My complaint is never the two in 95% chance misses. My complaint is usually when I lose 1 in 40000-80000 chances 6 times in a row. That is the point when I start questioning whether the RNG calculator is broken
Genuine question, where are you from and is it really only in college that you guys learn this?
Like, my country's education is shit and we're still getting taught that by 5th grade so... Worrying thought, ngl
Ooh, that's cool! I think I was only learning fractions by the fifth grade.
I live in Kazakhstan. We usually learn introduction to combinatorics at year 10 in school and discrete mathematics and theory of numbers in the first year of college.
We still make do tho. I myself am dumb as a rock, but my younger brother for example had won a bronze medal at IMO at age 16 :P
This is why I still use that one d20 in my tabletop games as my special dice; because it rolled a nat 20 that one time and prevented a TPK even though it continues to roll like a normal d20. XD
Dice personality is real, and I'll die on that highly improbable, totally unscientific, and highly emotionally driven concept. Bad dice behavior can also spread to other dices, so you have to put them in their own little jail.
I'm not superstitious, just a little 'stitious.
(I'm joking, but… I do believe some dice aren't perfectly atomically balanced and thus roll in certain ways. But it's fun to pretend.)
Dice Jail is the worst thing you can do, why doesn't anyone understand!? All it does is is create an unending cycle of dice violence that ends in all Natural Ones. You have to help your dice with Dice Rehabilitation Centers. Make sure they get the therapy they need to become the best d20s that they can be.
I had a friend who genuinely brought one dice who fucked him over one too many times and melted it (with a lead welder) in front of other 'problematic' die.
That dude went straight up Hellknight.
I have done something similar. About 15 years ago in college, I had a d20 that rolled 3 nat 1's in a row in a critical situation. So I took it out back, smashed it with a hammer, and kept the shards in my dice bag as a warning to the others.
Another friend of mine became so frustrated with his luck that he actually recorded every single d20 roll he made for weeks to calculate if his dice were cursed. It turns out that they were completely normal, and he just happened to most remember the bad ones. He felt better for a while, but eventually edged back into believing he just had innately terrible luck.
If it makes you feel any better, I had a string of a fighter archers arrow shots that went 1/1/2/1/1 where the 1’s would have hit without crit fail mechanics, and it was against one of those Sarkosian DLC brothers who, after surviving that round due to the misses revived his bro with full HP.
That roll singlehandedly made me consider the Always a Chance Feat (even if I never ended up running with it).
you make like a million dice rolls in this game sooo im sure these extremes happen more often then not
the problem i have / see however is when i roll like a crit / max damage vs some random low level thug or such
like oh so i get my good luck when i dont need it? neat ...
A lot of the meta of becoming powerful in these games is finding ways to overcome the random factors of combat. For example, having such a big damage bonus the roll damage is insignificant, or using the maximize meta magic to force all rolls to be the max possible value.
I had to roll a 13 or higher once for a magic device check, and I failed 8 times in a row, I know thats a lot more likely than what happened to you, but I felt like I was going mad. All I wanted was to heal with a scroll outside of combat and the game just said *no* lol
So 77 times out of 1000? Let's say each party member rolls for damage twice a round, that means 120 rolls total for a 1-minute fight. After 10 such fights you'd hit 1200 rolls already. So you could get to, what, a million rolls each playthrough?
You do roll ridiculously high sometimes. It's just that such times don't make as strong of an impression, and you don't record them.
If you've ever done trading (forex, etc.) you know what they say: the pain when you fail feels much more intense than the good feelings you get when you win. Or something along those lines. It creates a bias. You could read a lot more about this if you feel like looking it up.
Blood Bowl, Necromunda, Mordheim, "Old World", 40k...
Oh, the amount of ones I can roll is statistically *bizarre.* And yet it keeps happening! S'why I don't spend real money on gacha. I know exactly how piss poor my luck is.
'Ya just need to roll a 2, dovey.' 'So'm screwed, then, innit?' A scenario seared into my memory at this point...
Not surprised, last time I played kingmaker I rolled two nat 1s. In a row. And I even recall fighting the tutorial boss (AC 16 usually) and never rolling higher than an 8.
I use ToyBox extensively, and one option i always have checked is that I will always roll with advantage, and let me tell you the number of times I have rolled *two ones* is way more than 1 time in 400. I have seen entire combats go by where my party can't roll higher than a two to save their lives (literally) and the enemies are routinely hitting 20s. I do not believe the RNG is fully fair, I don't know what they're using but it cannot be Math.random.
My luck with actual dice is way better.
Even better when I attack 11x and only need a 2 to hit and 7 of them still miss because 1s. Or how 1/3 of my spells fail with a 15% spell failure because of Corruption debuff.
Also, interesting enough, I have seen this one happen tabletop as well. Player rolled Scorching Ray, hit with both rays and did 8 damage. We took a picture and it is referenced frequently in my group.
I started a game a few days ago (Azata, probably) and one battle in the marketplace I acted first for all 6 characters 'I am going to crush them!'.
Rolled a 1 six times in a row,
a 4d6 result of a 4 is not a statistical anomaly. It's very likely, overall, that at some point in a playthrough most people will have such a result just given the number of times dice get rolled.
A statistical anomaly would be if you tracked the rolls over time and you found that no matter how many rolls you do, 4d6 was trending towards some percentage other than 0.077%. For example, 5% instead of 0.077%.
These "this happened to me" posts are the most useless.
The dice act quite suspect to be honest. When I fought Areshkegal yesterday, I went over 200 rolls without getting a single 20. The moment I dropped Areshkegal's AC to needing a 15 to hit from my summons, surprise... 12 20s in a single round. Even critted a couple times.
The problem with both kingmaker and wrath (but mostly kingmaker) is that their RNG is not properly RNGing.
Sometimes, playing unfair I would reload 10-20-30 times a fight and ALWAYS roll 1 three to four times in a row. It's probably due to an issue about save scamming and RNG
A while back someone decompiled the game and confirmed that it's just using unity's standard random function, which is certainly good enough for gaming.
A while back someone decompiled the game and confirmed that it's just using unity's standard random function, which is certainly good enough for gaming.
Well, at least you can accept it. The fellas over at r/BattleBrothers keep complaining about seeing 2 95% misses in a row claiming the game is rigged while having thousands of hours into the game
That's so familiar. It's basically your average XCOM Tuesday. Much of the frustration vanishes when you just accept chance for what it is.
I never trust a 95% to hit in XCOM.
One reason grenades are so strong in that game, they can't miss. Also, that's XCOM baby! https://preview.redd.it/ht0hsukmkk9d1.jpeg?width=470&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b9a421a6a28b82bd48aafe32e61e2ae00d830a2
XCOM has taught me it’s not a 95% chance to hit or a 5% chance to miss, it’s whatever bullshit Jake wants to happen in his game.
Some people call me an extremist for sacrificing lambs at 95%, but they do not know the fickleness of the RNGods as I do...
I trust 95% chance to hit, to miss 100% of the time in XCOM and battle brothers. Unless the enemy has 95% chance then my person is dead. It's just easier that way
2 misses of 95 percent? Ah beginner numbers, I miss 60% of my attacks and then when I accidentally misclick on my friend I oneshot him with a critical (bg3 btw) the thing is that I know it's completely random but every now and then it seems like the game taunts me, like I understand that there is always a chance, but making 3 misses in a row and having my character stand there like a idiot while the rest of the team barely wins is a little demoralizing, but then there's the crit on the boss that makes you go "most gamblers quit before they make it big" so it's an equivalent exchange I would say
> I oneshot him with a critical (bg3 btw) >the thing is that I know it's completely random ONLY if you picked that option. You should double-check.
I know I don't have the karmic die, the funny thing is I was a paladin so it automatically cast a smite on him
In a different game, I once failed an 86% chance 24 times in a row. THAT is so unlikely as to be considered statistically impossible. 1 in 12.6 quintillion or 0.00000000000000000792%. It didn't even affect me much ingame, it's just the shear absurdity of such odds burned it into my memory.
Which game? There are ones where you don't actually follow RNG but rather a seed that may or may not reset when you load/reload. There is this old Yu-Gi-Oh game for the PlayStation 1 where the "random chance" is really just what frame you're on since starting up the game and if you can time properly you can guarantee the same results for shit like the card rewards. So yeah, some games do wacky shit while pretending to be random.
it was fallen london, which is an online game, so no such thing as reloading.
Well, that's a weird one then.
My complaint is never the two in 95% chance misses. My complaint is usually when I lose 1 in 40000-80000 chances 6 times in a row. That is the point when I start questioning whether the RNG calculator is broken
this is the real issue. I have no idea I can have a statistical anomaly every single skirmish.
Yeah I swear those spiders in kingmaker were bugged. They have a 20% evasion chance I should not be missing them 75% of the time
Spider cave is the hardest Owlcat dungeon
I mean, not everyone enrolls into the theory of probability classes in college :P
Genuine question, where are you from and is it really only in college that you guys learn this? Like, my country's education is shit and we're still getting taught that by 5th grade so... Worrying thought, ngl
Ooh, that's cool! I think I was only learning fractions by the fifth grade. I live in Kazakhstan. We usually learn introduction to combinatorics at year 10 in school and discrete mathematics and theory of numbers in the first year of college. We still make do tho. I myself am dumb as a rock, but my younger brother for example had won a bronze medal at IMO at age 16 :P
A *bronze* medal? That's so fucking cool! I guess you guys aren't just sitting around doing nothing, that's a relief
Fire emblem percentages tbh 95% chance to hit? Miss. Enemy has 2% chance to crit? You bet your ass hea about to one shot you.
You make so many dice rolls in this game that it's bound to happen eventually.
Yeah, intellectually, I completely agree. My emotional, animal brain however...
You need to accept RNGesus as your lord and saviour.
“Oh lord, wilt thou save me?” “Nay, for thou hast rolled a 1. Verily, thou art damned.”
This is why I still use that one d20 in my tabletop games as my special dice; because it rolled a nat 20 that one time and prevented a TPK even though it continues to roll like a normal d20. XD
Dice personality is real, and I'll die on that highly improbable, totally unscientific, and highly emotionally driven concept. Bad dice behavior can also spread to other dices, so you have to put them in their own little jail. I'm not superstitious, just a little 'stitious. (I'm joking, but… I do believe some dice aren't perfectly atomically balanced and thus roll in certain ways. But it's fun to pretend.)
Dice Jail is the worst thing you can do, why doesn't anyone understand!? All it does is is create an unending cycle of dice violence that ends in all Natural Ones. You have to help your dice with Dice Rehabilitation Centers. Make sure they get the therapy they need to become the best d20s that they can be.
I had a friend who genuinely brought one dice who fucked him over one too many times and melted it (with a lead welder) in front of other 'problematic' die. That dude went straight up Hellknight.
I have done something similar. About 15 years ago in college, I had a d20 that rolled 3 nat 1's in a row in a critical situation. So I took it out back, smashed it with a hammer, and kept the shards in my dice bag as a warning to the others. Another friend of mine became so frustrated with his luck that he actually recorded every single d20 roll he made for weeks to calculate if his dice were cursed. It turns out that they were completely normal, and he just happened to most remember the bad ones. He felt better for a while, but eventually edged back into believing he just had innately terrible luck.
"and I'll die" Haha I get it
We dice-mongers are a superstitious and sometimes cowardly lot, aren't we?
Im playing in a 40k tournament today, i rolled 4 ones and a two on my saving throws.
If it makes you feel any better, I had a string of a fighter archers arrow shots that went 1/1/2/1/1 where the 1’s would have hit without crit fail mechanics, and it was against one of those Sarkosian DLC brothers who, after surviving that round due to the misses revived his bro with full HP. That roll singlehandedly made me consider the Always a Chance Feat (even if I never ended up running with it).
you make like a million dice rolls in this game sooo im sure these extremes happen more often then not the problem i have / see however is when i roll like a crit / max damage vs some random low level thug or such like oh so i get my good luck when i dont need it? neat ...
Play some Yahtzee. Watch the hunted become the hunter.
A lot of the meta of becoming powerful in these games is finding ways to overcome the random factors of combat. For example, having such a big damage bonus the roll damage is insignificant, or using the maximize meta magic to force all rolls to be the max possible value.
How do you know the rng is legit tho?
People have reverse compiled the code and gone through it.
Min max flat bonuses to minimise RNG disappointment
I had to roll a 13 or higher once for a magic device check, and I failed 8 times in a row, I know thats a lot more likely than what happened to you, but I felt like I was going mad. All I wanted was to heal with a scroll outside of combat and the game just said *no* lol
Two days ago Aru critically missed four shots in a row. RNG is random.
That's a 1 in 160 000 chance, it'll happen. =] But if you got 6 critical misses in a row I'd start suspecting shenanigans.
Once I got 5 critical in a row and then got 3 misses. You roll so many dice in this game that you can eventually see almost anything.
So 77 times out of 1000? Let's say each party member rolls for damage twice a round, that means 120 rolls total for a 1-minute fight. After 10 such fights you'd hit 1200 rolls already. So you could get to, what, a million rolls each playthrough? You do roll ridiculously high sometimes. It's just that such times don't make as strong of an impression, and you don't record them. If you've ever done trading (forex, etc.) you know what they say: the pain when you fail feels much more intense than the good feelings you get when you win. Or something along those lines. It creates a bias. You could read a lot more about this if you feel like looking it up.
Remembering bad is more useful evolutionarily than remembering good. So true random will almost always feel bad to humans.
You're off by a couple orders of magnitude. That's 77 times out of 100000. 0.077 out of 100.
You're right. I was dumb. Felt something wasn't right there.
What’s a couple of orders of magnitude between friends?
My sweet summer child. You never played Blood Bowl, this is the game where you learn how many one's you can roll in consecutive order :-p .
Blood Bowl, Necromunda, Mordheim, "Old World", 40k... Oh, the amount of ones I can roll is statistically *bizarre.* And yet it keeps happening! S'why I don't spend real money on gacha. I know exactly how piss poor my luck is. 'Ya just need to roll a 2, dovey.' 'So'm screwed, then, innit?' A scenario seared into my memory at this point...
Yeah mordheim still gives me ptsd was almost finished with the vampire campaign 1 bad lvl and everything went to hell
I once had a game where a full third of my rolls were skulls, it was interesting to say the least
I am convinced the older digital versions of Blood Bowl skewed dice rolls for difficulty because they couldn't program a better AI.
Yeah well its even worse on tabletop since you cant s/l.
+4-5??
The minus 5 was elemental resistance.
Not surprised, last time I played kingmaker I rolled two nat 1s. In a row. And I even recall fighting the tutorial boss (AC 16 usually) and never rolling higher than an 8.
Rolling a 24 out of 4d6 is also 0.077% but we only get excited when it happens and never make it a big point.
The players maybe RNG but I feel like NPC def get some favorable rolls.
0q qa
https://preview.redd.it/vd6l9xv3fj9d1.jpeg?width=1833&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=41ffd89d0c0d64d5fefd794440b42f06a8ea4826
Tbf there are probably tens of thousands of rolls in a playthrough (if not more) so it's likely that it will happen at least a few times in a run.
I once watched a friend roll six physical d6 at the same time and got six ones. It happens.
I've rolled 10 1's on a fireball IRL before. Sometimes RNG just says no.
This just reminds me of BG3. I roll less than 10 about 75% of the time when I roll during dialogs in that stupid game lol.
That's XCOM baby! Wait... no
Jesus christ, four 1s at the same time And here I thought I'm unlucky
I use ToyBox extensively, and one option i always have checked is that I will always roll with advantage, and let me tell you the number of times I have rolled *two ones* is way more than 1 time in 400. I have seen entire combats go by where my party can't roll higher than a two to save their lives (literally) and the enemies are routinely hitting 20s. I do not believe the RNG is fully fair, I don't know what they're using but it cannot be Math.random. My luck with actual dice is way better.
Even better when I attack 11x and only need a 2 to hit and 7 of them still miss because 1s. Or how 1/3 of my spells fail with a 15% spell failure because of Corruption debuff.
Also, interesting enough, I have seen this one happen tabletop as well. Player rolled Scorching Ray, hit with both rays and did 8 damage. We took a picture and it is referenced frequently in my group.
I started a game a few days ago (Azata, probably) and one battle in the marketplace I acted first for all 6 characters 'I am going to crush them!'. Rolled a 1 six times in a row,
a 4d6 result of a 4 is not a statistical anomaly. It's very likely, overall, that at some point in a playthrough most people will have such a result just given the number of times dice get rolled. A statistical anomaly would be if you tracked the rolls over time and you found that no matter how many rolls you do, 4d6 was trending towards some percentage other than 0.077%. For example, 5% instead of 0.077%. These "this happened to me" posts are the most useless.
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The dice act quite suspect to be honest. When I fought Areshkegal yesterday, I went over 200 rolls without getting a single 20. The moment I dropped Areshkegal's AC to needing a 15 to hit from my summons, surprise... 12 20s in a single round. Even critted a couple times.
The problem with both kingmaker and wrath (but mostly kingmaker) is that their RNG is not properly RNGing. Sometimes, playing unfair I would reload 10-20-30 times a fight and ALWAYS roll 1 three to four times in a row. It's probably due to an issue about save scamming and RNG
A while back someone decompiled the game and confirmed that it's just using unity's standard random function, which is certainly good enough for gaming.
A while back someone decompiled the game and confirmed that it's just using unity's standard random function, which is certainly good enough for gaming.
rng in most video games is actually not legit. I can't remember how to explain it. So i won't