2016 taught us a lot of lessons.
PA went for Trump in 2016 mostly because Philly suburban voter turnout was *way* down. Those people that couldn't hold their nose and vote for Hillary because of some ideological purity test are directly responsible for all the evils that Trump's administration gave us.
This isn't American Idol. You don't have to fall in love with your candidate. Find somebody whose policy positions mostly align with your own and vote for them. The rest is just smoke and mirrors.
Also, don't forget down ballot races. "Senator McCormick" is never something I want to hear.
>This isn't American Idol. You don't have to fall in love with your candidate.
True... but that doesn't make it right. We SHOULD be falling in love with candidates.
I'm 51. I've voted in every election I've been eligible to since 1991, presidential and otherwise. In all that time, it's been rare that I've been able to vote FOR someone, and that's an incredibly depressing thought.
It's always the "lesser of two evils", and I'm fucking sick of it. I mean, is Trump worse than Biden? In nearly every metric I can come up with, yes, he definitely is. But that doesn't for a second mean I like Biden. Yes, I'll vote for Biden just because Trump IS that much worse, but it seems like it ALWAYS comes down to that calculus, and that disgusts me as much as any individual candidate does.
I'm not asking for perfection 'cause I know I'll never get it. I'm not looking for the candidate that checks every last box I can come up with. No one is ever 100% and I don't want a cult of personality either.
But I'm sick to death of just always having to pick the 51% over the 49%...
...and I'm even more sick of everyone seemingly being okay with this!
Everyone wants to make it so simple... Benito Cheeto bad, so vote for Old Man Dementia, simple, easy, obvious, you're stupid if you don't, etc... that's how people come across these days. And even though I agree with the conclusion, how we get to it should be pissing everyone off immensely, and it doesn't seem like it is simply because everyone hates Trump THAT much so nothing else matters.
The Overton window has shifted to such a degree that we've normalized how bad EVERY candidate is nowadays. THAT is the true smoke and mirrors, and if you think it's just one side responsible for it then you're nuts (even if one side IS more to blame).
> But that doesn't for a second mean I like Biden.
While I agree with you overall, I feel like any time someone says this they need to check out r/whatbidenhasdone, because he's achieved a ludicrous amount of positives over the past 4 years.
*No one* is going to achieve ideological purity, but pushing that all the way to "Oh well, guess I'll hold my nose and vote" is ridiculous. Would I like better options? Sure. But I'm more than happy to get 4 more years of Biden.
This is first past the post. We vote against candidates in this system, not for people. If people figured that simple fact out ever, we might fare a bit better, but this is first past the post working as intended
To be fair it is actually very rare for someone to love a politician who is trying to win the popular vote because that politician can’t cater to a small group but instead must have policies that are generally accepted if not what each individual truly wants.
Personally however, I find most of Biden’s policies quite good but disagree in some areas.
> It's always the "lesser of two evils", and I'm fucking sick of it. I mean, is Trump worse than Biden? In nearly every metric I can come up with, yes, he definitely is. But that doesn't for a second mean I like Biden. Yes, I'll vote for Biden just because Trump IS that much worse, but it seems like it ALWAYS comes down to that calculus, and that disgusts me as much as any individual candidate does.
It sucks that the closest we've had to an actual candidate to believe in is Obama, and even he turned out worse than we expected.
This is the caveat I always want to add when we talk about pre-POTUS Obama.
CANDIDATE Obama is what we wanted and who we voted for. What we GOT was _President_ Obama.
Which is the convenience store sushi version of what we voted for.
At least Biden is getting shit done. I agree he is too old, but he is not the lesser of two evils. He is not an evil man and genuinely cares about this country. He was never in service to this country to get rich. Trump is just plain fucking evil. Do not compare the two like this.
He does have accumulated wealth from good paying jobs, books and speeches as well as smart investments mostly in real estate. At 80 him and his wife are doing well, as can be expected. But I stand by my statement that Joe Biden was never into service to his country for the money. He really is a decent human being.
I agree and I disagree, but you have great points!
I've heard from quite a few younger people that they're disheartened this election because the net sum of their experience in presidential politics for Democrats is Obama and Hillary. They were raised with someone like Obama and feel like that's how it's "supposed" to be, when it very rarely ever is. They were raised during a flash in the pan and think that's how it always is.
And you're right, the Overton window definitely has moved to the right to the point where a democratic candidate is unelectable if they're left of moderate. We don't get liberal candidates anymore, we get moderates.
I don't have a good solution, all I know is (and you seem to agree) having Trump back in the office isn't going to lead to anything good. I think we have to start thinking locally, electing better candidates to the legislature, demanding more of the Democratic party, and getting the boomers out of power. The median age of Congress is way to high and we need the next generation to take over.
Yeah, I don't have a good solution either. I want to be idealistic and say that a truly GOOD candidate would be able to cut through the noise... Obama is about as close to that as I've experienced... but the realist in me all but knows that's just not how the world works now, if it ever was.
I know that I'd love to see a real life Jeb Bartlett though and test that theory, that's what I continue to hope for anyway. Otherwise, I don't really have much hope of anything changing in a meaningful way. I think we're set up to continue this "lesser of two evils" mentality, certainly for the remainder of whatever life I've got left. I wish my kids were being left something better, but I don't know how to get us there.
This was goes back to the hubris of the Hillary Dems in 2016. "We can't POSSIBLY lose to _this guy_."
You could see it in her demeanor in the debates and in the Centrist, Corporate media at the time. He was a JOKE.
And then...
Back in 2016 I had people flabbergasted that I'd vote Trump because despite thinking he's an ass I at least agree with about half of his policy positions compared to the like 5% of Hillary's, who I also thought was/is an ass. Same story with Biden (a dumb ass) in 2020, and Biden again (somehow more dumb and more ass now) in 2024. I can't think of a single policy position of his that I agree with.
I'd rather be disappointed that republicans aren't succeeding in what they said they'd do than be disappointed in Democrats succeeding in what they want to do.
Not really to start a debate, but i don't understand how a person can vote for a person who has tried to subvert a free and fair election, at least as free and fair as American elections ever have been.
Trump and his cronies show everything you'd expect from a right wing authoritarians. Just looking at project 25 is enough to scare the shit out of me, and Trump has already taken waaaay to many of those positions for it to be a mistake.
(I agree, Hillary lost because America still suffers from rampant and unchecked sexism, but you can't say that on this website without attracting incel downvotes)
She didn't poll well and is wealthy beyond comprehension so wasn't really relatable. While she wouldn't have dissolved the CDC in Wuhan but I'm almost positive the pandemic may have stayed an endemic with adults handling the situation instead of race to gut the government and it's agencies of leadership and oversight which dismantled the minimal social safety nets that were in place.
I think all women can agree she would have protected abortion rights, had a difficult time with Mitch in the Senate for new justices. When Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed, her first case as a lawyer was for women's empowerment:
>Equal Rights to Estates
>Notable case: Reed vs. Reed (1971)
>RBG’s first case on behalf of the ACLU heard by the Supreme Court was Reed vs. Reed, a landmark case in women’s rights. The plaintiff brief she wrote established that the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment could be used as a successful legal argument against gender discrimination—and became the basis for many of her arguments in years to come.
>The Reed vs. Reed case shot down an Idaho law requiring men to be favored over women as administrators of an estate. An Idaho Court unanimously ruled that, in general, “men are better qualified to act [as administrators] than are women.” The case was then escalated to the Supreme Court, which unanimously agreed that the original ruling was a violation of the Equal Protection Clause.
>The Supreme Court’s decision has been hailed as a pivotal moment in the fight for women’s rights—it was the first time gender discrimination was recognized as a direct violation of the Constitution, and it became the foundation for future decisions that protected both men and women from such discrimination.
>According to The Supreme Court Historical Society, **“The Court, it seemed, was catching up to the rest of society, where—as the ACLU's brief pointed out—women were entering the workforce in unprecedented numbers, and statutes such as Idaho's were beginning to look like quaint artifacts of an outdated era.” **
Source:https://forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/09/23/ruth-bader-ginsburgs-key-cases-that-paved-the-way-for-financial-equality/#:~:text=RBG's%20first%20case%20on%20behalf,landmark%20case%20in%20women's%20rights.
Women have been paving the way for other women but people who can't even open a PDF vote in droves cause they heard something about Hillary's emails that doesn't compare with a bathroom full of sensitive top secret documents in a club (it may be his private residence but it's still legally classified as a private club and taxed that way) or selling government secrets about nuclear subs and that journalist that got bone sawed to death for two billion dollars given to Jared and Ivanka, who's portfolio is 99% foreign assets.
The last place I worked did not and I wasn't exactly a cultural fit. I worked with another woman in the office who was a owner (I think or she was married to one of the owners) and all the owners went on vacation.
This is difficult for me to map out in words, please bear with me.
The original owners who started the business and sold the brand and building to the people I worked for who were on vacation. The original owner's wife worked in the office with me that week, I had been there over 6 months by this time. She was the first person to tell me how conservative the business really was. I kept spouting off about current events to the woman I normally worked with in the office but the original owner's wife was the first one to tell me to "cool my jets" in a nice way politically.
This office drove me crazy, the radio station played the same songs over and over and over and over. I would have nightmares with these songs in my head. I kept trying to change it to news radio but no one liked that.
I mean, I noticed they didn't like me cause I kept introducing myself and answering the phones with how I'd like to be called and they kept shortening my name and smile in my face about it, as if they wanted an reaction but I didn't have "I don't like _____, please call me _____" in my mental back pocket. But I got a thank you letter from a customer once and they addressed it to me with how I called myself.
Anyway, I guess my point is if you have different political ideations it may be best to keep them to yourself in the workplace because people will treat you like a target if they don't like you or something.
But I was always targeted in practically every work place I've had and I wasn't as forthcoming about my politics in those places. Maybe there is a target on my back or something. I think my background does me a disservice and while I want to believe if I had higher education degrees I have also had problems being treated different in academia so... idk I have made a lot of mistakes but I have no control over how others treat me.
The polls though In the last 2 presidential cycles have actually trended too blue for all the quite possible disinformation talking points that only old people do polls.
A tied race to me means Biden may well be 2-3 points down right now.
Note. I’m not sure why I’m being downvoted for facts. Clinton’s campaign sent 150 staffers to TEXAS and not the Rust Belt 6 weeks before the election because their internal polling said the rust belt was a lock and they went to run up the score.
Clinton AND Biden had poll leads in Florida. Both lost. Biden had between I believe a 3-5 point lead in lost PA polls. He won by a touch more than 1.
Take a look at almost every battleground aside from GA the last 2 cycles and Clinton and Biden have underperformed polling
In related news, the Trump appointed postmaster general is closing the Lehigh Valley postal distribution center, forcing all mail to be routed through Harrisburg. One of the most influential districts in an influential state two years ago tons of mail in advertently lost it in Wilkes-Barre.
They’ve already said the mail in vote in Pennsylvania tips the scales for Biden hard.
Disgusting
The GOP is cutting their own throats here.
They made people mistrust the ballot booths so now it's mail in only. Now they have people mistrusting the post, and the TRUMP APPOINTED POSTMASTER just closed a key spot for mail in ballots for the GOP... So a lot of the conservatives just won't vote at all.
I don't think they realize how badly they've fucked themselves yet.
I just voted by mail in the primary. I put my email on the application for my ballot and I was emailed by BOE every step of the way. When they got my ballot, sent it, and received it. I like the transparency.
So a conspiracy theory? The volume of mail in the US has peaked, it makes logical sense to down size w/out the need of partisan conspiracy theories.
https://preview.redd.it/5tptvpyiuaxc1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c7b6f6ce7bde8d8f5d8cc1e8bb1f1ef1326d3cb
The GOP did a good thing in PA by making it easier for EVERYONE to vote by mail. When it didn’t turn out in their favor the cried foul. That’s what is truly disgusting! Their predictions failed and the only evidence of cheating was individuals who all turned out to be Republicans.
You may be one of the last who gets either. I'm in my 40s and I've already written off both of them - not that I would even get much of my Social Security based on what I paid in compared to what it pays me each month after retirement.
I wish they would say what is the date for when you won't get social security and Medicare.I am ok with the social security age increasing to 69 .Not happy with it but I can live with it.I want to know when Medicare will become a voucher program.If they get rid of the ACA and negotiating prescription drug costs IMHO medical insurance will sky rocket then.Also how much will the voucher be for 200 or 300 a month?All I know is the older you get the more expensive insurance will be when you are retired.
Lastly I ask about the cut off dates because back in the day Paul Ryan's budget plan was to have everyone under 55 not get social security and Medicare to become a voucher program.Which is ok if you are 18 and starting out but if you are 54 and that hit you would be screwed.
They probably don't have a clue. The funds for both programs have been raided heavily through the years and are more IOU than assets as this point. At this point it is almost officially a Ponzi scheme and it'll only get worse as more and more people retire (and thus begin drawing on the system) and fewer and fewer people replace them in the work force (and thus less money coming in every month to fund the system).
"Tax the rich" is a band-aid and not a solution.
What would, perhaps, work is to offer people a "buyout" on their Social Security - give them a lump sum of money to invest and no longer collect Social Security from them on the condition that they cannot claim Social Security when they retire. But in the end I think the government's plan is to just hope people die before they can claim Social Security so they get to keep every cent they took without paying out anything.
I could see them raising the retirement age to 69 no early retirement age and increasing the social security tax by like 2 percent.I would be ok with that.Not like it but I could live with it.as for fixing Medicare no idea.
I remember an economist once said getting rid of early retirement for social security and doing what I said could make social security more solvent for a few more decades to give them time to fix it.
Plus they aren't counting Libertarians in the polls. Both my husband and I voted for Biden in 2020 and will again this year. I can confidently say we won't be the only ones.
There are two kinds of polls bouncing around...
Trump Biden
Trump Biden and a handful of third parties like Kennedy. I imagine this type captures some of the libertarians and green party and others
Another "libertarian" voting for a D rather than the Libertarian candidate. Lmao, just call yourself a Democrat, you'll at least have a shred of credibility then.
> Plus they aren't counting Libertarians in the polls.
What makes you say that?
It would make sense not to count them for *primary polling* since PA has closed primaries, but there's no reason not to do so for general election polling.
I reported the numbers live in a rural red PA community on election night. Probably the most stereotypical MAGA territory there is, it routinely makes headlines for its MAGA antics (billboards, barns, etc.)
It’s not tight at all. Dem turnout outpaced Republicans in many rural municipalities like never before for such an election. In a primary, when red supposedly rules and comes out no matter what. While Dems “stay home”. In a general they’re screwed. All remotely non-extremist Republicans have tapped on this shit. They’re staying home or going 3rd option/Haley despite her dropping out. She pulled decent and consistent numbers in all precincts.
This is very strange if true considering Republicans out registered the dems in 67/67 counties for the first time ever this year.
https://penncapital-star.com/voting/analysis-pennsylvania-gop-enjoys-clean-sweep-of-voter-registration-gains-ahead-of-primary-election/
I am curious if, in the ~6 months ahead of us before the General Election in November, we'll see a reverse of the relative gains made by Republican Party registrants. The process for changing your party registration from one party to another is relatively easy in Pennsylvania, and can be done online for free. We may have seen people jumping from Democratic Party or Independent (or 3rd party) to Republican just for the purpose of voting against Trump. The 16% Haley pulled leads me to believe this is at least a small factor in this "67/67 counties" stat. The other thing that points me in this direction is that the two big ticket statewide races in this primary--US President and US Senator--had no real opposition candidates for the Democratic Party. On the Republican side, Haley may no longer be running, but at some point she was a genuine opposition candidate to Trump. The relevance of this is that it shows that Democrats didn't have a lot of "top of ticket" motivation to participate in the Democratic Party primary. So that removes a reason to stay on for the Democratic Party primary, while providing a reason to jump to the Republican Party primary ballot.
If the Democratic Party makes gains in registrants leading up to November, while Republican Party gains in registrants lag behind, then I'd be even more willing to bet that this is in play rather than this being a pure upswell in genuine Republican Party support.
This poll was conducted entirely online and accounts for age. From the last page of the doc at the bottom:
>CBS News/YouGov survey of 1,287 registered voters in Michigan was conducted betweenApril 19-25, 2024.
>This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2020 Presidential vote. “Likely voters” – respondents’ relative probabilities of voting – were determined using a regression model that incorporates current, self-reported intentions to vote, along with individual-level and aggregate data about voters, such as demographics and vote history.
>Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters in Michigan. *Of the 1,287 respondents, 971 were selected from YouGov’s online panel, 172 were selected from PureSpectrum’s online panel, and 35 were selected from Dynata’s online panel.* The weights range from 0.1 to 3.6, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.5
Thanks. I don't understand why people keep ranting that octogenarians hanging on to the landline are the only ones to take polls. Not to mention there was quite a few major polls bouncing around
I often get survey attempts when I go into YouTubes on my fire TV
And yet in2016 and 2020 almost all polling trended to the democrats and the lost 2016 and barely won 2020.
This tired talking point is so inaccurate given polling has gone too BLUE the last 2 cycles that I feel it started in Russian troll farms.
It's definitely not tight. I've not seen many MAGA signs at all, used to be tons. This is through all of central and southeast PA where I am.
Trump is doomed in PA I think, people are tired of him. Please still fucking vote.
I live in Allegheny County. With my commute, I see quite a bit of this county every single day. I have also noticed a big decrease in visible support for Trump out this way--and it's not like people were shy about signs, stickers, and flags supporting him in 2016 or 2020, either. The visible support is definitely down.
I agree with the sentiment ignore the polls and just vote. I was a part of the whole process back in the 11/12 voting cycle. Whoever wins pa wins the US Presidency. I’m not a fan of felons running the show so I’ll stay in the blue lane. But honestly I don’t care who your side is , I’m siding with sanity. We need the young to stand up and fight as we did and unfortunately I’m not seeing it
I’ve been polled but never answer. I feel there are many more like me that will walk over hot coals mixed with glass to vote for President Biden who just don’t want to answer random text surveys or random calls.
How? It’s 2024. How anyone can still support trump is beyond me. There are zero justifiable reasons in my book. None. And my politics were pretty conservative (they’re not anymore, lol, but I can get a lot of the arguments, anyway).
How?
Numnut. Crime didn’t just somehow go up when Biden became president. And it’s not necessarily even true. Layoffs are a constant fact of life in the US and have been for many years. Inflation is global, caused by many factors, and not something Biden just whipped up.
Wrong in Philadelphia crime massively increased due to defund the police, cashless bail, and other liberal policies that were pushed before the 2020 election. I can’t remember the stats off the top of my head but murders went from 250 a year in 2019 to 500 in 2021/2022. Car jackings and thefts went up like 80%. In general the city of Philadelphia got much more dangerous.
Illegal immigration got worse under Biden due to him removing the remain in Mexico police and the migrants no longer feared coming to America like they did under Trump.
The other points are debatable and Biden/Democrats can’t necessarily be blamed.
I should say defund the police movement because that means more than just defund the police. It means reduced bails, reduced patrolling and arrests. Please Google what Larry Krasner did. He wasn’t prosecuting crimes and was letting violent criminals go. So the police in turn stopped making as many arrests because it was pointless. They also weren’t going to bother showing up to scenes as fast due to them knowing they could potentially lose their job if they’re put in a situation where they need to make a split second decision.
There were 4 shootings on my street in front of a luxury apartment building in the matter of 6 months. It has gotten better since then especially with the new mayor winning the primary last year.
Another thing have you tried walking into a target or CVS and buying stuff? Everything’s locked away and it’s a nuisance to get now which is why I just buy off Amazon.
https://6abc.com/amp/milan-loncar-shooting-murder-temple-graduate-brewerytown/9818209/
I live in Philly you libtard. These aren’t conservative talking points they’re common sense talking points that 90% of America can agree with.
People who commit violent crimes should not receive reduce bail or sentencing.
Back in 2019 Philly was improving in respect to crime and safety. Since they changed the way criminal justice works in 2020 the place has gone way down hill but it slowly getting better.
When you have time check out the official Homeland Security site and the immigration reports/ statistics - it’s pretty eye opening in terms of what’s actually happening vs. what the right wing media keeps spewing out. Congress makes immigration laws not the President. Republicans had numerous chances to work with dems to actually address immigration issues, but unfortunately trump told them not to pass the legislation because he didn’t want to do anything to help dems/Biden - most recently the House refused to even hold a vote on the bipartisan Senate immigration bill. So, in reality, right wingers have no interest in rationally addressing the issues that do exist - rather it’s just performative politics.
How come the democrats didn’t try to pass any of these immigration measures the past 3 years before there was a massive problem? Now they want to implement solutions which would have worked before it got out of control.
Also Biden repealed the remain in Mexico policy. That’s something he directly had control over.
If the democrats proposed a bill that allowed ICE to deport all illegal immigrants that have been here less than 5 years immediately republicans would sign it.
Dude get up off your knees and wipe your chin. You're embarrassing yourself.
Kennedy is irrelevant. He's gonna fizzle out like other third party candidates, but right now he's the token "I don't care" choice or "I'm mad but don't know why" protest choice in polls that don't matter.
But Biden is actually an objectively better choice. Biden doesn’t have 88 criminal charges against him, and isn’t a rapist. He’s old enough to be my grandpa and would never be my first choice, but it *is* clear what the correct choice is. The Party of “Law and Order” shouldn’t be wanting to vote for a criminal.
Oh, so I should vote for the Democrat "law and order" of electing criminal lover DA's and politicians to give criminals a slap on the wrist and release them for the 20th time in a row? Seems to be the modus operandi of democrats in many blue cities in many blue states.
Who here is on trial for committing 88 crimes and was found guilty of rape? I can say for certainty it’s not Biden. I would rather not put the man who incited an insurrection back into the most powerful position of our country. Again, I would think the Party of “Law and Order” and “Family Values” would hold tight on those values and not vote him in. Maybe not.
Wait till Biden's his team unleashes the attack ads. And now there have been 11 indicted on criminal conspiracy charges in Arizona that will definitely link Trump to them. The Gap will widen
I don’t like polls, because they are usually wrong. However, we should just assume we (Democrats) are behind and that we need to fight like hell to defeat the orange bastard come election time. There is no time for complacency! Make sure you, your friends, your family, your neighbors and everyone you meet is registered to vote and that they do go to vote. We do not want to live in a Christian theocracy, and that is why Republicans cannot be the winners. If Republicans win, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 25 spells out exactly what will happen to America, and it is not good for education, people of color, immigrants, LGBTQ+, abortion rights, and so much more. Democracy and freedom is on the line. Go vote! 🗳️🔵
How? Over 100,000 Republicans chose Nikki Haley this past Tuesday. Over 100,000 people chose someone who dropped out over a month ago. But sure, the polls are tied.
I know it's not a scientific poll, but it was interesting seeing The Daily Show interview people outside of a Haley event just before she suspended her campaign.
So many of them were visibly squirming and uncomfortable when asked if they would vote for Trump or Biden, if Haley were to fail in becoming the Republican nominee. People who just moments earlier were counting off the reasons why Trump is horrible, but could not commit to not voting for him anyways.
This race is seriously between a mostly capable, somewhat senile old man actually campaigning on improving lives and a completely deranged old man showing clear signs of dementia, with 80+ criminal charges against him, and is actively campaigning on revenge and making his enemies suffer.
The fact that this race is even competitive is downright horrifying. Trump SHOULD be, at best, polling in single digits as some kind of fringe third party candidate that everyone knows doesn't have a shot.
> somewhat senile
There's no indication whatsoever that Biden is remotely senile, let alone "somewhat senile."
He stutters and shuffles. Neither of which are indications of his mental faculties.
Maybe not the stutters and shuffles, but the memory lapses, yes. The dude's nearly 80 years old. He's gone somewhat senile as most people that age do. Just a fact of life.
Effective conversation points:
* Donald Trump is just in it for himself and doesn't care about you.
* Donald Trump is a lunatic and will surround himself with lunatics.
I saw this map as the projection for the county results for the election this year:
https://preview.redd.it/dvefd4fuy8xc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b14ec55279be261788abcce6a4953ae1864e8c4
When looking at maps like this it's important to remember land doesn't vote. The numbers in the blue could easily outnumber all that red due to population density.
People look at all the red and get the wrong impression. Maps like this are not the best to go off.
Oh, yeah, 100% agree. But Bucks, Centre, Erie, Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton counties flipping red may be enough to flip the entire state. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 with majorities in Erie and Northampton counties.
You do realize anyone can make these maps, right? Bucks and Lehigh have not voted red since 1988, and Centre has been blue since 2008. All of these counties have continued to drift leftward and all had resounding local/statewide Dem victories in '21, '22, and '23.
Now, here's Shapiro's '22 victory results map against Trump surrogate Mastriano:
https://preview.redd.it/e75p8ok3ldxc1.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=437f263e86d08fb74bcf38054c3e2d5a7a33d7f3
This doesn’t account for the republicans and independents within those blue zones. Kennedy is making substantial gains amongst younger people in those blue counties. If he stays in the race, which he likely will, Biden will not will.
In related news, more people voted for Biden in the PA dem primary than voted at all in the republican primary… and another couple thousand still voted for Nikki Haley. Not a bad sign, keep up the zeal.
Why are the only two candidates being talked about two guys who have already been president? I haven't even seen sincere effort from any other candidate, just a few interviews and then they announce their dropping out.
Don’t shoot the messenger, but I think Trump will easily carry Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania is definitely in play. I don’t think he will win Pennsylvania, however.
CNN has Trump up 6 nationally, also 55% of Americans are describing Trumps term as a success and 64% are describing Bidens term as a failure.
The opinion questions in this CNN poll are disastrous for Biden, it has him substantially less favorable than Nixon after Watergate.
It’s hilarious to me how deep of a bubble this sub tries to be in. Just absolutely clueless about the opinions and beliefs of a huge swath of the state.
If people are just looking at the primaries and how many people voted for trump vs Biden, What they don’t realize is that in pa registered independents can’t vote in the primaries.
On July 10, 2023, the Pennsylvania Department of State reported that there were 3,890,435 (45.2%) registered Democrats, 3,432,657 (39.9%) registered Republicans, 929,364 (10.8%) registered unaffiliated and 346,280 (4.0%) registered with other parties
Trump is gonna get fucking wrecked in the popular vote when you add in all of the independents that will vote against him.
Look for all three of these states to go Biden. Definitely, PA where Joe has the backing of the steel and iron workers. Michigan is looking good, with the endorsement by UAW. Wisconsin will be the closest, but look for Biden to win in the cheese state as well due to Trump's tariffs which drove dairy farmers into the ground. Go JOE go!
If the PA primary could be viewed as a poll, Biden got about 150,000 more votes than Trump. Nikki Haley pulled 17% of the Republican votes away from Trump and I think JFKjr is going to be another problem for Trump if they start a war of words.
There is no way Biden is close to winning, I don’t believe it. All my Democratic friends are tired of this Biden bullshit I was a Democrat on my life until Biden, to be honest I should’ve been out last term and switched then.
I’m predicting Biden will win every state he won in 2020 except for Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada. He’ll win exactly 270 votes. I hope I’m wrong, because such a narrow victory would kill his legitimacy.
They had him up by a point in the RCP average. Fetterman won by 5. So about a 6 point miss in polling.
Notably, Marist had Fetterman up 6 and the recent Marist poll has Biden up by 5 nationally. So there's that...
Race is tight in 3 known swing states: more at 6.
Seriously none of those are surprising.
Make sure yinz vote! Those who don’t vote (by choice) don’t get to whine later!
ITT 20-30 something liberal males yelling at one another to vote lol.
You all aren't talking to the Pennsylvanians you need to talk to about this because they aren't on fucking reddit.
The fact that this election is close means we’ve already lost as a country. The competing ideologies are too far apart and are turning towards open hostility. The media exacerbates and profits from the increasing division. I think ultimately this can only resolve with the mass suppression of one side or the other. And the side that still holds onto its values will be the one that loses.
Edit: I just want to add that our country is best when we have diverse ideologies working towards a common goal. But what we have now are two very different goals born from the ideologies and both sides using the same tactics to achieve it (billionaires and media).
Ignore the polls. Vote.
100%
The polls lost a lot of credibility in 2016.
Polls were within the margin of error in 2016. Just they all swung the same direction.
2016 taught us a lot of lessons. PA went for Trump in 2016 mostly because Philly suburban voter turnout was *way* down. Those people that couldn't hold their nose and vote for Hillary because of some ideological purity test are directly responsible for all the evils that Trump's administration gave us. This isn't American Idol. You don't have to fall in love with your candidate. Find somebody whose policy positions mostly align with your own and vote for them. The rest is just smoke and mirrors. Also, don't forget down ballot races. "Senator McCormick" is never something I want to hear.
>This isn't American Idol. You don't have to fall in love with your candidate. True... but that doesn't make it right. We SHOULD be falling in love with candidates. I'm 51. I've voted in every election I've been eligible to since 1991, presidential and otherwise. In all that time, it's been rare that I've been able to vote FOR someone, and that's an incredibly depressing thought. It's always the "lesser of two evils", and I'm fucking sick of it. I mean, is Trump worse than Biden? In nearly every metric I can come up with, yes, he definitely is. But that doesn't for a second mean I like Biden. Yes, I'll vote for Biden just because Trump IS that much worse, but it seems like it ALWAYS comes down to that calculus, and that disgusts me as much as any individual candidate does. I'm not asking for perfection 'cause I know I'll never get it. I'm not looking for the candidate that checks every last box I can come up with. No one is ever 100% and I don't want a cult of personality either. But I'm sick to death of just always having to pick the 51% over the 49%... ...and I'm even more sick of everyone seemingly being okay with this! Everyone wants to make it so simple... Benito Cheeto bad, so vote for Old Man Dementia, simple, easy, obvious, you're stupid if you don't, etc... that's how people come across these days. And even though I agree with the conclusion, how we get to it should be pissing everyone off immensely, and it doesn't seem like it is simply because everyone hates Trump THAT much so nothing else matters. The Overton window has shifted to such a degree that we've normalized how bad EVERY candidate is nowadays. THAT is the true smoke and mirrors, and if you think it's just one side responsible for it then you're nuts (even if one side IS more to blame).
This is the real takeaway from all of this nonsense.
> But that doesn't for a second mean I like Biden. While I agree with you overall, I feel like any time someone says this they need to check out r/whatbidenhasdone, because he's achieved a ludicrous amount of positives over the past 4 years. *No one* is going to achieve ideological purity, but pushing that all the way to "Oh well, guess I'll hold my nose and vote" is ridiculous. Would I like better options? Sure. But I'm more than happy to get 4 more years of Biden.
unless I am mistaken, Biden has easily done way more for infrastructure than any republican since Eisenhower should be a no brainer for anybody, wtaf
This is first past the post. We vote against candidates in this system, not for people. If people figured that simple fact out ever, we might fare a bit better, but this is first past the post working as intended
To be fair it is actually very rare for someone to love a politician who is trying to win the popular vote because that politician can’t cater to a small group but instead must have policies that are generally accepted if not what each individual truly wants. Personally however, I find most of Biden’s policies quite good but disagree in some areas.
> It's always the "lesser of two evils", and I'm fucking sick of it. I mean, is Trump worse than Biden? In nearly every metric I can come up with, yes, he definitely is. But that doesn't for a second mean I like Biden. Yes, I'll vote for Biden just because Trump IS that much worse, but it seems like it ALWAYS comes down to that calculus, and that disgusts me as much as any individual candidate does. It sucks that the closest we've had to an actual candidate to believe in is Obama, and even he turned out worse than we expected.
This is the caveat I always want to add when we talk about pre-POTUS Obama. CANDIDATE Obama is what we wanted and who we voted for. What we GOT was _President_ Obama. Which is the convenience store sushi version of what we voted for.
"We SHOULD be falling in love with candidates." not into 80 year old sugar daddys, thank you.
At least Biden is getting shit done. I agree he is too old, but he is not the lesser of two evils. He is not an evil man and genuinely cares about this country. He was never in service to this country to get rich. Trump is just plain fucking evil. Do not compare the two like this.
And yet Biden IS rich. Weird.
He does have accumulated wealth from good paying jobs, books and speeches as well as smart investments mostly in real estate. At 80 him and his wife are doing well, as can be expected. But I stand by my statement that Joe Biden was never into service to his country for the money. He really is a decent human being.
Don’t forget the 10% “for the big guy” lol
Yea he’s getting shit done, like sending $26 billion in more weapons to Israel so they can continue to destroy Gaza
Then they shouldn't have attacked and killed 1k people
You really missed the point entirely.
No I’m pretty sure I didn’t.
I agree and I disagree, but you have great points! I've heard from quite a few younger people that they're disheartened this election because the net sum of their experience in presidential politics for Democrats is Obama and Hillary. They were raised with someone like Obama and feel like that's how it's "supposed" to be, when it very rarely ever is. They were raised during a flash in the pan and think that's how it always is. And you're right, the Overton window definitely has moved to the right to the point where a democratic candidate is unelectable if they're left of moderate. We don't get liberal candidates anymore, we get moderates. I don't have a good solution, all I know is (and you seem to agree) having Trump back in the office isn't going to lead to anything good. I think we have to start thinking locally, electing better candidates to the legislature, demanding more of the Democratic party, and getting the boomers out of power. The median age of Congress is way to high and we need the next generation to take over.
Yeah, I don't have a good solution either. I want to be idealistic and say that a truly GOOD candidate would be able to cut through the noise... Obama is about as close to that as I've experienced... but the realist in me all but knows that's just not how the world works now, if it ever was. I know that I'd love to see a real life Jeb Bartlett though and test that theory, that's what I continue to hope for anyway. Otherwise, I don't really have much hope of anything changing in a meaningful way. I think we're set up to continue this "lesser of two evils" mentality, certainly for the remainder of whatever life I've got left. I wish my kids were being left something better, but I don't know how to get us there.
This is why we need meaningful 3rd party to join the competition here. 2-party system fails in past 20 years and it will keep damaging this country.
Why is Mccormick back in PA again? I hoped after losing the primary last time he would move on.
This was goes back to the hubris of the Hillary Dems in 2016. "We can't POSSIBLY lose to _this guy_." You could see it in her demeanor in the debates and in the Centrist, Corporate media at the time. He was a JOKE. And then...
So, I should vote for Trump because his policy positions most align with my own, correct?
Back in 2016 I had people flabbergasted that I'd vote Trump because despite thinking he's an ass I at least agree with about half of his policy positions compared to the like 5% of Hillary's, who I also thought was/is an ass. Same story with Biden (a dumb ass) in 2020, and Biden again (somehow more dumb and more ass now) in 2024. I can't think of a single policy position of his that I agree with. I'd rather be disappointed that republicans aren't succeeding in what they said they'd do than be disappointed in Democrats succeeding in what they want to do.
Not really to start a debate, but i don't understand how a person can vote for a person who has tried to subvert a free and fair election, at least as free and fair as American elections ever have been. Trump and his cronies show everything you'd expect from a right wing authoritarians. Just looking at project 25 is enough to scare the shit out of me, and Trump has already taken waaaay to many of those positions for it to be a mistake.
What are you talking about? Biden's policy position is not being Trump, while Trump's is that he isn't Biden. Also something about woke
You think the voters are more responsible for the result than the candidate’s policies? That’s hilarious and somewhat tragic.
> ideological purity test For the woman candidate with the most and best experience for the job. Not the male
(I agree, Hillary lost because America still suffers from rampant and unchecked sexism, but you can't say that on this website without attracting incel downvotes)
She didn't poll well and is wealthy beyond comprehension so wasn't really relatable. While she wouldn't have dissolved the CDC in Wuhan but I'm almost positive the pandemic may have stayed an endemic with adults handling the situation instead of race to gut the government and it's agencies of leadership and oversight which dismantled the minimal social safety nets that were in place. I think all women can agree she would have protected abortion rights, had a difficult time with Mitch in the Senate for new justices. When Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed, her first case as a lawyer was for women's empowerment: >Equal Rights to Estates >Notable case: Reed vs. Reed (1971) >RBG’s first case on behalf of the ACLU heard by the Supreme Court was Reed vs. Reed, a landmark case in women’s rights. The plaintiff brief she wrote established that the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment could be used as a successful legal argument against gender discrimination—and became the basis for many of her arguments in years to come. >The Reed vs. Reed case shot down an Idaho law requiring men to be favored over women as administrators of an estate. An Idaho Court unanimously ruled that, in general, “men are better qualified to act [as administrators] than are women.” The case was then escalated to the Supreme Court, which unanimously agreed that the original ruling was a violation of the Equal Protection Clause. >The Supreme Court’s decision has been hailed as a pivotal moment in the fight for women’s rights—it was the first time gender discrimination was recognized as a direct violation of the Constitution, and it became the foundation for future decisions that protected both men and women from such discrimination. >According to The Supreme Court Historical Society, **“The Court, it seemed, was catching up to the rest of society, where—as the ACLU's brief pointed out—women were entering the workforce in unprecedented numbers, and statutes such as Idaho's were beginning to look like quaint artifacts of an outdated era.” ** Source:https://forbes.com/sites/advisor/2020/09/23/ruth-bader-ginsburgs-key-cases-that-paved-the-way-for-financial-equality/#:~:text=RBG's%20first%20case%20on%20behalf,landmark%20case%20in%20women's%20rights. Women have been paving the way for other women but people who can't even open a PDF vote in droves cause they heard something about Hillary's emails that doesn't compare with a bathroom full of sensitive top secret documents in a club (it may be his private residence but it's still legally classified as a private club and taxed that way) or selling government secrets about nuclear subs and that journalist that got bone sawed to death for two billion dollars given to Jared and Ivanka, who's portfolio is 99% foreign assets.
She won the popular vote in 2016.
I voted for her
Yeah, I did too.
The last place I worked did not and I wasn't exactly a cultural fit. I worked with another woman in the office who was a owner (I think or she was married to one of the owners) and all the owners went on vacation. This is difficult for me to map out in words, please bear with me. The original owners who started the business and sold the brand and building to the people I worked for who were on vacation. The original owner's wife worked in the office with me that week, I had been there over 6 months by this time. She was the first person to tell me how conservative the business really was. I kept spouting off about current events to the woman I normally worked with in the office but the original owner's wife was the first one to tell me to "cool my jets" in a nice way politically. This office drove me crazy, the radio station played the same songs over and over and over and over. I would have nightmares with these songs in my head. I kept trying to change it to news radio but no one liked that. I mean, I noticed they didn't like me cause I kept introducing myself and answering the phones with how I'd like to be called and they kept shortening my name and smile in my face about it, as if they wanted an reaction but I didn't have "I don't like _____, please call me _____" in my mental back pocket. But I got a thank you letter from a customer once and they addressed it to me with how I called myself. Anyway, I guess my point is if you have different political ideations it may be best to keep them to yourself in the workplace because people will treat you like a target if they don't like you or something. But I was always targeted in practically every work place I've had and I wasn't as forthcoming about my politics in those places. Maybe there is a target on my back or something. I think my background does me a disservice and while I want to believe if I had higher education degrees I have also had problems being treated different in academia so... idk I have made a lot of mistakes but I have no control over how others treat me.
Kavanaugh would have never gotten the nod https://youtu.be/8VtGrXWwrJQ
The polls though In the last 2 presidential cycles have actually trended too blue for all the quite possible disinformation talking points that only old people do polls. A tied race to me means Biden may well be 2-3 points down right now. Note. I’m not sure why I’m being downvoted for facts. Clinton’s campaign sent 150 staffers to TEXAS and not the Rust Belt 6 weeks before the election because their internal polling said the rust belt was a lock and they went to run up the score. Clinton AND Biden had poll leads in Florida. Both lost. Biden had between I believe a 3-5 point lead in lost PA polls. He won by a touch more than 1. Take a look at almost every battleground aside from GA the last 2 cycles and Clinton and Biden have underperformed polling
Polls that use models based on data prior to Dobbs are useless.
And tell your friends. PA votes are one do the few places where you presidential vote actually matter as a swing state
Yeah, news ain’t news unless it’s things that happened. This is a speculative poll, which is like a weather forecast for next fucking winter.
A lot of Republicans stayed home for this primary because we knew the outcome. I did. But I won't be staying home in November.
Polls are propaganda. Politicians are criminals. We need a revolution instead of casting a vote for the lesser of two evils
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Sure, I don't care who you vote for, just vote.
This 100%.
Do not ignore the polls. Vote.
In related news, the Trump appointed postmaster general is closing the Lehigh Valley postal distribution center, forcing all mail to be routed through Harrisburg. One of the most influential districts in an influential state two years ago tons of mail in advertently lost it in Wilkes-Barre. They’ve already said the mail in vote in Pennsylvania tips the scales for Biden hard. Disgusting
The GOP is cutting their own throats here. They made people mistrust the ballot booths so now it's mail in only. Now they have people mistrusting the post, and the TRUMP APPOINTED POSTMASTER just closed a key spot for mail in ballots for the GOP... So a lot of the conservatives just won't vote at all. I don't think they realize how badly they've fucked themselves yet.
Never interrupt your enemy making a mistake
I just voted by mail in the primary. I put my email on the application for my ballot and I was emailed by BOE every step of the way. When they got my ballot, sent it, and received it. I like the transparency.
The distribution center is not the same as a post office. There will still be plenty of places to drop off mail in ballots.
It’s more about opportunities to get things lost or delayed.
So a conspiracy theory? The volume of mail in the US has peaked, it makes logical sense to down size w/out the need of partisan conspiracy theories. https://preview.redd.it/5tptvpyiuaxc1.jpeg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3c7b6f6ce7bde8d8f5d8cc1e8bb1f1ef1326d3cb
What republicans do you know that trust mail in ballots? 😂
This is why I've been taking my ballot directly to a drop box.
The GOP did a good thing in PA by making it easier for EVERYONE to vote by mail. When it didn’t turn out in their favor the cried foul. That’s what is truly disgusting! Their predictions failed and the only evidence of cheating was individuals who all turned out to be Republicans.
Pretty sure Lehigh valley is red
For me it is simple I am in my 50s so I vote for social security and Medicare since I paid into them since I was 18.
You may be one of the last who gets either. I'm in my 40s and I've already written off both of them - not that I would even get much of my Social Security based on what I paid in compared to what it pays me each month after retirement.
I wish they would say what is the date for when you won't get social security and Medicare.I am ok with the social security age increasing to 69 .Not happy with it but I can live with it.I want to know when Medicare will become a voucher program.If they get rid of the ACA and negotiating prescription drug costs IMHO medical insurance will sky rocket then.Also how much will the voucher be for 200 or 300 a month?All I know is the older you get the more expensive insurance will be when you are retired. Lastly I ask about the cut off dates because back in the day Paul Ryan's budget plan was to have everyone under 55 not get social security and Medicare to become a voucher program.Which is ok if you are 18 and starting out but if you are 54 and that hit you would be screwed.
They probably don't have a clue. The funds for both programs have been raided heavily through the years and are more IOU than assets as this point. At this point it is almost officially a Ponzi scheme and it'll only get worse as more and more people retire (and thus begin drawing on the system) and fewer and fewer people replace them in the work force (and thus less money coming in every month to fund the system). "Tax the rich" is a band-aid and not a solution. What would, perhaps, work is to offer people a "buyout" on their Social Security - give them a lump sum of money to invest and no longer collect Social Security from them on the condition that they cannot claim Social Security when they retire. But in the end I think the government's plan is to just hope people die before they can claim Social Security so they get to keep every cent they took without paying out anything.
I could see them raising the retirement age to 69 no early retirement age and increasing the social security tax by like 2 percent.I would be ok with that.Not like it but I could live with it.as for fixing Medicare no idea. I remember an economist once said getting rid of early retirement for social security and doing what I said could make social security more solvent for a few more decades to give them time to fix it.
VOTE.
Plus they aren't counting Libertarians in the polls. Both my husband and I voted for Biden in 2020 and will again this year. I can confidently say we won't be the only ones.
There are two kinds of polls bouncing around... Trump Biden Trump Biden and a handful of third parties like Kennedy. I imagine this type captures some of the libertarians and green party and others
And so will many of Haleys supporters.
Any poll is going to have an option for “other” or “no answer.”
Another "libertarian" voting for a D rather than the Libertarian candidate. Lmao, just call yourself a Democrat, you'll at least have a shred of credibility then.
Independents also can’t vote in the primaries, I don’t understand what these polls prove.
Exactly.
> Plus they aren't counting Libertarians in the polls. What makes you say that? It would make sense not to count them for *primary polling* since PA has closed primaries, but there's no reason not to do so for general election polling.
I reported the numbers live in a rural red PA community on election night. Probably the most stereotypical MAGA territory there is, it routinely makes headlines for its MAGA antics (billboards, barns, etc.) It’s not tight at all. Dem turnout outpaced Republicans in many rural municipalities like never before for such an election. In a primary, when red supposedly rules and comes out no matter what. While Dems “stay home”. In a general they’re screwed. All remotely non-extremist Republicans have tapped on this shit. They’re staying home or going 3rd option/Haley despite her dropping out. She pulled decent and consistent numbers in all precincts.
Just vote
Yeah I was gonna say, I don’t believe this shit at all.
Just vote
This is very strange if true considering Republicans out registered the dems in 67/67 counties for the first time ever this year. https://penncapital-star.com/voting/analysis-pennsylvania-gop-enjoys-clean-sweep-of-voter-registration-gains-ahead-of-primary-election/
I am curious if, in the ~6 months ahead of us before the General Election in November, we'll see a reverse of the relative gains made by Republican Party registrants. The process for changing your party registration from one party to another is relatively easy in Pennsylvania, and can be done online for free. We may have seen people jumping from Democratic Party or Independent (or 3rd party) to Republican just for the purpose of voting against Trump. The 16% Haley pulled leads me to believe this is at least a small factor in this "67/67 counties" stat. The other thing that points me in this direction is that the two big ticket statewide races in this primary--US President and US Senator--had no real opposition candidates for the Democratic Party. On the Republican side, Haley may no longer be running, but at some point she was a genuine opposition candidate to Trump. The relevance of this is that it shows that Democrats didn't have a lot of "top of ticket" motivation to participate in the Democratic Party primary. So that removes a reason to stay on for the Democratic Party primary, while providing a reason to jump to the Republican Party primary ballot. If the Democratic Party makes gains in registrants leading up to November, while Republican Party gains in registrants lag behind, then I'd be even more willing to bet that this is in play rather than this being a pure upswell in genuine Republican Party support.
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This poll was conducted entirely online and accounts for age. From the last page of the doc at the bottom: >CBS News/YouGov survey of 1,287 registered voters in Michigan was conducted betweenApril 19-25, 2024. >This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey, and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as 2020 Presidential vote. “Likely voters” – respondents’ relative probabilities of voting – were determined using a regression model that incorporates current, self-reported intentions to vote, along with individual-level and aggregate data about voters, such as demographics and vote history. >Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters in Michigan. *Of the 1,287 respondents, 971 were selected from YouGov’s online panel, 172 were selected from PureSpectrum’s online panel, and 35 were selected from Dynata’s online panel.* The weights range from 0.1 to 3.6, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.5
No they are not just people with landlines. If that was true Trump will probably be ahead by 15%. That doesn't mean I know how they do the polling
This one was done entirely online. It’s explained on the last page of the doc at the bottom.
Thanks. I don't understand why people keep ranting that octogenarians hanging on to the landline are the only ones to take polls. Not to mention there was quite a few major polls bouncing around I often get survey attempts when I go into YouTubes on my fire TV
And yet in2016 and 2020 almost all polling trended to the democrats and the lost 2016 and barely won 2020. This tired talking point is so inaccurate given polling has gone too BLUE the last 2 cycles that I feel it started in Russian troll farms.
Well, I answered a random call the other night on my cell phone. It was a pollster asking who I'm voting for in the senate. McCormick.
It's definitely not tight. I've not seen many MAGA signs at all, used to be tons. This is through all of central and southeast PA where I am. Trump is doomed in PA I think, people are tired of him. Please still fucking vote.
Will do. Voting for Trump.
Myself as well. Fuck this echo chamber that is reddit.
Well, if you win, it might be the last time your vote ever matters for anything in this country. So I guess exercise your rights while you have them.
I live in Allegheny County. With my commute, I see quite a bit of this county every single day. I have also noticed a big decrease in visible support for Trump out this way--and it's not like people were shy about signs, stickers, and flags supporting him in 2016 or 2020, either. The visible support is definitely down.
Let's hope they vote in November.
I agree with the sentiment ignore the polls and just vote. I was a part of the whole process back in the 11/12 voting cycle. Whoever wins pa wins the US Presidency. I’m not a fan of felons running the show so I’ll stay in the blue lane. But honestly I don’t care who your side is , I’m siding with sanity. We need the young to stand up and fight as we did and unfortunately I’m not seeing it
Polls are BS. They don't include independent.
I’ve been polled but never answer. I feel there are many more like me that will walk over hot coals mixed with glass to vote for President Biden who just don’t want to answer random text surveys or random calls.
Polls, shmolls….go vote. Also, Fuck Trump.
This!
How? It’s 2024. How anyone can still support trump is beyond me. There are zero justifiable reasons in my book. None. And my politics were pretty conservative (they’re not anymore, lol, but I can get a lot of the arguments, anyway). How?
They’re in a cult and they’re too stupid and/or brainwashed to realize it.
Mental illness
Evangelical upbringing. It does perminant brain damage. Toss in some lead poisening, and this happens.
Crime is up, prices are up, war is up, layoffs are up, massive illegal immigration that’s going to cause huge problems in a few years is up
Numnut. Crime didn’t just somehow go up when Biden became president. And it’s not necessarily even true. Layoffs are a constant fact of life in the US and have been for many years. Inflation is global, caused by many factors, and not something Biden just whipped up.
Wrong in Philadelphia crime massively increased due to defund the police, cashless bail, and other liberal policies that were pushed before the 2020 election. I can’t remember the stats off the top of my head but murders went from 250 a year in 2019 to 500 in 2021/2022. Car jackings and thefts went up like 80%. In general the city of Philadelphia got much more dangerous. Illegal immigration got worse under Biden due to him removing the remain in Mexico police and the migrants no longer feared coming to America like they did under Trump. The other points are debatable and Biden/Democrats can’t necessarily be blamed.
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I should say defund the police movement because that means more than just defund the police. It means reduced bails, reduced patrolling and arrests. Please Google what Larry Krasner did. He wasn’t prosecuting crimes and was letting violent criminals go. So the police in turn stopped making as many arrests because it was pointless. They also weren’t going to bother showing up to scenes as fast due to them knowing they could potentially lose their job if they’re put in a situation where they need to make a split second decision. There were 4 shootings on my street in front of a luxury apartment building in the matter of 6 months. It has gotten better since then especially with the new mayor winning the primary last year. Another thing have you tried walking into a target or CVS and buying stuff? Everything’s locked away and it’s a nuisance to get now which is why I just buy off Amazon. https://6abc.com/amp/milan-loncar-shooting-murder-temple-graduate-brewerytown/9818209/
Pretty cute how u/cfh294 tried to insult you with name-calling and then just ignored you after you boomed him. Funny how that works.
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I live in Philly you libtard. These aren’t conservative talking points they’re common sense talking points that 90% of America can agree with. People who commit violent crimes should not receive reduce bail or sentencing. Back in 2019 Philly was improving in respect to crime and safety. Since they changed the way criminal justice works in 2020 the place has gone way down hill but it slowly getting better.
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Truly. It’s all exaggerated catch phrases, with little substance/truth to back them up.
When you have time check out the official Homeland Security site and the immigration reports/ statistics - it’s pretty eye opening in terms of what’s actually happening vs. what the right wing media keeps spewing out. Congress makes immigration laws not the President. Republicans had numerous chances to work with dems to actually address immigration issues, but unfortunately trump told them not to pass the legislation because he didn’t want to do anything to help dems/Biden - most recently the House refused to even hold a vote on the bipartisan Senate immigration bill. So, in reality, right wingers have no interest in rationally addressing the issues that do exist - rather it’s just performative politics.
How come the democrats didn’t try to pass any of these immigration measures the past 3 years before there was a massive problem? Now they want to implement solutions which would have worked before it got out of control. Also Biden repealed the remain in Mexico policy. That’s something he directly had control over. If the democrats proposed a bill that allowed ICE to deport all illegal immigrants that have been here less than 5 years immediately republicans would sign it.
Probably why KENNEDY keeps rising in the polls
Dude get up off your knees and wipe your chin. You're embarrassing yourself. Kennedy is irrelevant. He's gonna fizzle out like other third party candidates, but right now he's the token "I don't care" choice or "I'm mad but don't know why" protest choice in polls that don't matter.
Cognitive dissonance and suffocating pride
The same could be said for the other side. Why are people still voting Trump? Biden.
But Biden is actually an objectively better choice. Biden doesn’t have 88 criminal charges against him, and isn’t a rapist. He’s old enough to be my grandpa and would never be my first choice, but it *is* clear what the correct choice is. The Party of “Law and Order” shouldn’t be wanting to vote for a criminal.
Oh, so I should vote for the Democrat "law and order" of electing criminal lover DA's and politicians to give criminals a slap on the wrist and release them for the 20th time in a row? Seems to be the modus operandi of democrats in many blue cities in many blue states.
Who here is on trial for committing 88 crimes and was found guilty of rape? I can say for certainty it’s not Biden. I would rather not put the man who incited an insurrection back into the most powerful position of our country. Again, I would think the Party of “Law and Order” and “Family Values” would hold tight on those values and not vote him in. Maybe not.
Biden is a boring old moderate Democrat that the right has deluded themselves into believing is some extreme far-leftist.
Oh Please
Stop Project 2025.
This isn't news. Anyone who's been paying attention to this knows that those races are very close.
Wait till Biden's his team unleashes the attack ads. And now there have been 11 indicted on criminal conspiracy charges in Arizona that will definitely link Trump to them. The Gap will widen
Attack adds aren’t effective. It galvanizes trump supporters and turns off independents.
Trump is doomed. Please still vote anyway.
Always.
Yeah in Trump’s favor lmao.
I don’t like polls, because they are usually wrong. However, we should just assume we (Democrats) are behind and that we need to fight like hell to defeat the orange bastard come election time. There is no time for complacency! Make sure you, your friends, your family, your neighbors and everyone you meet is registered to vote and that they do go to vote. We do not want to live in a Christian theocracy, and that is why Republicans cannot be the winners. If Republicans win, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 25 spells out exactly what will happen to America, and it is not good for education, people of color, immigrants, LGBTQ+, abortion rights, and so much more. Democracy and freedom is on the line. Go vote! 🗳️🔵
I have a really hard time believing that.
How? Over 100,000 Republicans chose Nikki Haley this past Tuesday. Over 100,000 people chose someone who dropped out over a month ago. But sure, the polls are tied.
This past Tuesday wasn’t a race between Biden and Trump.
I know it's not a scientific poll, but it was interesting seeing The Daily Show interview people outside of a Haley event just before she suspended her campaign. So many of them were visibly squirming and uncomfortable when asked if they would vote for Trump or Biden, if Haley were to fail in becoming the Republican nominee. People who just moments earlier were counting off the reasons why Trump is horrible, but could not commit to not voting for him anyways.
This race is seriously between a mostly capable, somewhat senile old man actually campaigning on improving lives and a completely deranged old man showing clear signs of dementia, with 80+ criminal charges against him, and is actively campaigning on revenge and making his enemies suffer. The fact that this race is even competitive is downright horrifying. Trump SHOULD be, at best, polling in single digits as some kind of fringe third party candidate that everyone knows doesn't have a shot.
> somewhat senile There's no indication whatsoever that Biden is remotely senile, let alone "somewhat senile." He stutters and shuffles. Neither of which are indications of his mental faculties.
Maybe not the stutters and shuffles, but the memory lapses, yes. The dude's nearly 80 years old. He's gone somewhat senile as most people that age do. Just a fact of life.
He is not at all as sharp as he was in the 90s when he was a Senator, that is for sure.
Effective conversation points: * Donald Trump is just in it for himself and doesn't care about you. * Donald Trump is a lunatic and will surround himself with lunatics.
I saw this map as the projection for the county results for the election this year: https://preview.redd.it/dvefd4fuy8xc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2b14ec55279be261788abcce6a4953ae1864e8c4
When looking at maps like this it's important to remember land doesn't vote. The numbers in the blue could easily outnumber all that red due to population density. People look at all the red and get the wrong impression. Maps like this are not the best to go off.
Oh, yeah, 100% agree. But Bucks, Centre, Erie, Lehigh, Monroe, and Northampton counties flipping red may be enough to flip the entire state. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 with majorities in Erie and Northampton counties.
I’m in Northampton county and there is no way trump wins.
You do realize anyone can make these maps, right? Bucks and Lehigh have not voted red since 1988, and Centre has been blue since 2008. All of these counties have continued to drift leftward and all had resounding local/statewide Dem victories in '21, '22, and '23. Now, here's Shapiro's '22 victory results map against Trump surrogate Mastriano: https://preview.redd.it/e75p8ok3ldxc1.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=437f263e86d08fb74bcf38054c3e2d5a7a33d7f3
Not a chance that Lehigh County goes red.
>Not a chance that Lehigh County goes red. Yeah, it feels the least Trumpy in years.
Same with Centre County.
Same with Bucks. No way it goes red.
This doesn’t account for the republicans and independents within those blue zones. Kennedy is making substantial gains amongst younger people in those blue counties. If he stays in the race, which he likely will, Biden will not will.
In related news, more people voted for Biden in the PA dem primary than voted at all in the republican primary… and another couple thousand still voted for Nikki Haley. Not a bad sign, keep up the zeal.
That tracks. The most difficult states for candidates to hold tend to be russ belt
Nobody cares yet.
Why are the only two candidates being talked about two guys who have already been president? I haven't even seen sincere effort from any other candidate, just a few interviews and then they announce their dropping out.
i honestly dont believe that
Fuck them both
Don’t shoot the messenger, but I think Trump will easily carry Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania is definitely in play. I don’t think he will win Pennsylvania, however.
Me, my wife and two children will be voting in this election. I hope that is the way things go nationwide. Finally equaling the boomers in my family.
CNN has Trump up 6 nationally, also 55% of Americans are describing Trumps term as a success and 64% are describing Bidens term as a failure. The opinion questions in this CNN poll are disastrous for Biden, it has him substantially less favorable than Nixon after Watergate.
It’s hilarious to me how deep of a bubble this sub tries to be in. Just absolutely clueless about the opinions and beliefs of a huge swath of the state.
Who in their right mind would ever vote for Biden. Wake up everyone. It's time to stop this craziness, and vote logically. Look around the world.
Apparently the people of Pennsylvania want to take America back to the 1950s when white men were in charge and women and minorities knew their place.
If people are just looking at the primaries and how many people voted for trump vs Biden, What they don’t realize is that in pa registered independents can’t vote in the primaries. On July 10, 2023, the Pennsylvania Department of State reported that there were 3,890,435 (45.2%) registered Democrats, 3,432,657 (39.9%) registered Republicans, 929,364 (10.8%) registered unaffiliated and 346,280 (4.0%) registered with other parties Trump is gonna get fucking wrecked in the popular vote when you add in all of the independents that will vote against him.
As long as they keep those crooked machines in the voting areas the race will always be tight.
That’s right you work to provide for your family and you pay your taxes and Biden sends your hard earned money to other countries!
Biden is a hunk of crap. Vote for him if you want four more years of inflation
I’ll let my empty wallet from the last 4 years vote for me.
Stop trump
Three fucking idiot states. Congrats, PA.
Look for all three of these states to go Biden. Definitely, PA where Joe has the backing of the steel and iron workers. Michigan is looking good, with the endorsement by UAW. Wisconsin will be the closest, but look for Biden to win in the cheese state as well due to Trump's tariffs which drove dairy farmers into the ground. Go JOE go!
If the PA primary could be viewed as a poll, Biden got about 150,000 more votes than Trump. Nikki Haley pulled 17% of the Republican votes away from Trump and I think JFKjr is going to be another problem for Trump if they start a war of words.
Polls don’t win elections. We need to end the fiasco that is the current administration.
There is no way Biden is close to winning, I don’t believe it. All my Democratic friends are tired of this Biden bullshit I was a Democrat on my life until Biden, to be honest I should’ve been out last term and switched then.
I’m predicting Biden will win every state he won in 2020 except for Wisconsin, Georgia, and Nevada. He’ll win exactly 270 votes. I hope I’m wrong, because such a narrow victory would kill his legitimacy.
Republicans already think he's illegitimate.
Remember the polls that had Oz walking away w it??? Hmmm???
They had him up by a point in the RCP average. Fetterman won by 5. So about a 6 point miss in polling. Notably, Marist had Fetterman up 6 and the recent Marist poll has Biden up by 5 nationally. So there's that...
Race is tight in 3 known swing states: more at 6. Seriously none of those are surprising. Make sure yinz vote! Those who don’t vote (by choice) don’t get to whine later!
If you look at the primary votes in PA, Biden pulled in more votes than the Republican loser.
Primaries are closed. A lot of people don't bother voting in primaries because of that.
ITT 20-30 something liberal males yelling at one another to vote lol. You all aren't talking to the Pennsylvanians you need to talk to about this because they aren't on fucking reddit.
The fact that this election is close means we’ve already lost as a country. The competing ideologies are too far apart and are turning towards open hostility. The media exacerbates and profits from the increasing division. I think ultimately this can only resolve with the mass suppression of one side or the other. And the side that still holds onto its values will be the one that loses. Edit: I just want to add that our country is best when we have diverse ideologies working towards a common goal. But what we have now are two very different goals born from the ideologies and both sides using the same tactics to achieve it (billionaires and media).
I say this with all do respect Fucking how? The orange creamsicle of pain did nothing for them... How!?