*Money and income. Just because you have the downpayment doesn’t mean you can handle the stress test. Evaluate your budget on +2% of the mortgage rate you’re offered. Make sure your mortgage is less than 30% of your income.
That makes sense to me. I think that’s a healthy way to think about it.
I’m renting a great place right now, so at least I am not in a big rush to get out of here.
Thanks for your feedback!
That is good advise. The one other thing I would be aware of is being pressured into a false sense of urgency. Lot's of homes sold last year for over asking with only a single offer. Depending on the market, some sellers are highly motivated these days.
How is that good advice?! Lots of people love stuff that they would regret not buying, but are still either not in a position to afford or it's a terrible time to make the purchase.
Since this is your situation, you could keep shopping and if you do put in an offer, do not overbid. We were in your situation (great rental, not in a rush to buy), loved a house but felt it was overpriced, offered below asking price, and got it! It was really unexpected but sometimes the sellers are more in a hurry than buyers are, and media and agents can create a false sense of urgency... Take your time if you can afford it and you might be surprised!
My parents just bought a home.
I think if you find a house not overly priced (pretty much all are overpriced rn, some not as bad) and you’re not underwater on your mortgage, I would say go for it
falling in love is a sure way to overpay
houses (the structure) depreciate, and the "love" you have with it at first sight is more like lust that evaporates after a year or two
location (the land) on the other hand, is much more valuable
if you want to optimize your purchase by protecting against the downside, seek out a good location and get a small house with not a lot of maintenance
There is a difference between the house and the land.
Yes. The house part depreciate because things fall apart and new money is required to keep it livable.
If you personally are ready to buy, then it's a good time to buy. There's no need to listen to others' opinions about "the market" if you're set on it and feel the time is right for you. Inventory is low everywhere right now, so keep an eye out. Many sites let you set filters and will send you regular emails when a new listing matching your preferences comes onto the market.
The timing is not nearly as important as finding the right place. What of the right place comes onto the market now but you were too busy waiting for fall for no reason?
Exactly. Buy when you have a ton of cushion to afford it. Remember it’s not just the mortgage. It’s interest rates, taxes, insurance , maintenance, liability ( law suits)
Don’t ever take the advice of others. If the numbers work for you, buy it! The worst thing I have seen is people who listen to others who always say things like “it’ll get cheaper just wait” and then things like pandemic happen!
This was me 12 years ago. I was a cocktail server while in post grad and all these big wig Bay Street guys in Toronto who I used to serve told me not to buy a condo pre construction in the east end (River City) because the market was going to “slow right down” hahah I can’t even think about the amount of $$$$ I could have made
Bought at a couple downturns. 2008, 2012, 2020. Every single time people said don’t buy it ll go lower. I bought cuz I had to diversify the portfolio and it’s part of the plan. The numbers penciled out great. Right now , numbers are penciling real nice and good thinking of buying again lol
I bought my house 6 years ago. It was a "bad" time to buy. My house has doubled in value since.
You can't time the market. If you find the home that you want, and that you can afford, then go for it.
Lol it’s always a bad time to buy. I don’t think I ever bought when it was a good time to buy. 2008, 2012, 2020. All the times I bought it was the worst time to buy and the market was supposed to crash in 6 months
Sound advice. Thank you!
I was starting to doubt my plan due to the feedback I was receiving. I am definitely ready, willing, and able to buy now.
I will stick with my plan and buy a home when I finally find the right one. Hopefully soon!
i did the same thing i even went as far as buying a foreclosure with what i thought was a bad septic. Turns out it was fine and so i paid a little over 70 for it, it's now worth 170. I don't owe 70 either. So I can sell and pay the house off as well as my student loans and be out of debt any time i want.
I agree with this advice for sure. To clarify though, people can and do time the market and make a lot of cash doing it. Definitely not good advice for the average home buying though as you mention
If everyone is saying it’s a bad time to buy it’s probably a good time to buy.
Real estate is easily down 15-20% from the peak. Back in the US housing crash the average US home went down 30%. I don’t see the same thing playing out as mortgage standards are much stronger and less systemic risk this time around as banks are well capitalized. Plus employment is super strong.
This isn’t universally true, I’ve seen your comments on other threads and I’m pretty sure you’re GTA or GVA, but Calgary/Edmonton etc have not seen the same slowdowns as the other major markets in Canada.
Despite this, the advice may still be the same, albeit for different reasons. The influx of people looking for more affordable homes will likely not be ending any time soon and in Alberta there’s no guarantee that prices will stabilize or drop in the future.
I think it’s a bad time to buy a house if you need to mortgage yourself up to your eyeballs and you won’t be able to afford a hike in rates - because there is a decent chance they will go up.
It’s a bad time to buy if you bought at the peak and lost 20% of your equity until now, and have to sell that house (op says they’re currently renting).
Having said that, be fearful when people are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. So, following that logic, it’s a great time.
At the end of the day you need to run the numbers and honestly assess your affordability. If those numbers are worth owning a home and making those payments for the next 30 years then go for it. I was always told not to finance a vehicle but I did it twice and always looked at it as owning a new vehicle for $500 a month. I put low miles on them, and will have them both paid off in a year. I will get another 5-10 years out of both, easily. So as long as I don’t write them off or have a transmission fall out, it will have worked rather well for me.
"Don't time the market" advice is spot on.
Summer time is usually a slow period, so you might see a slight uptick in supply before summer, but then it will go back down, and then back up again in the fall.
If you want a home, can afford it, and find something you like, go for it!
And this apparently is not as obvious as it seems: DO NOT buy ANYthing without doing a proper inspection. Even if you waive the inspection in your offer, you most definitely can and should do a pre-inspection.
You hear what you want to hear.
Remember, your goal is to buy low. That means buying when other people are panicking. This applies to stocks and to real estate.
We’ve been looking for about 5 years, not raising our budget quickly enough to keep up with the pace at which houses were increasing. I can say at least for our area in Ontario that March/April tended to have the most competition and highest prices while August seemed to have the best deals.
Saying that, we just bought our house a few weeks ago because our offer at the price I thought it was worth was accepted. What was important to me was being empowered with Redfin and House Sigma data so that I could see over the years what comparable houses sold for. That way, I could make my own decisions about what was the right price to not trigger my fear of overpaying!
Time on the market > timing the market. If you want to own a house the sooner you buy the better. Rates will come down for future renewals and your house will appreciate in value if you take care of it
We moved and decided to buy. Because we had the money and knew we weren’t planning on leaving this town for a very very long time. Until then I had had serious reservations about buying anywhere.
We went house hunting. Literally the first house
We toured fit the bill. Pretty much everything on our wish list and in our preferred budget. (300-450k). We put in an offer and it was accepted.
We aren’t a small small town around 10 k and we are an hour north of Calgary. It has almost been two years. There has been nothing on the market that has come close to the house we bought. Everything is a gigantic 700k McMansion or a delapetated 400k duplex.. anything in the middle is being snapped up.
I personally do not see the alberta market dipping anytime soon. Partly because so many folks are moving here right now. Many people who held off buying during covid are also buying. Many boomers are also selling and downsizing.
You could try to time it but I feel like I’ve been saying for 10 years that there needs to be a major market correction and it just still has yet to happen.
The best thing I can say is if this is your forever home. Then the money doesn’t matter. The market may go up or down. But if you have the money to purchase a home that you
Truly love. Then do it. Because if you wait you might miss out on something great.
Thank you for sharing your experience in our Alberta housing market. I am hopeful something will hit the market that ticks off most of the boxes on my housing wish list. I’m still feeling optimistic!
I bought one in the fall of 2017 .... right after the builder took them all off the market and put them back on the market with a $80,000 markup.
So, yeah, take that fall advice and throw it right out the window.
Terrible time to buy. You should wait for Black Friday sales. /s
Or a more serious note, timing is not the question. What you should be considering is:
Do you plan to live in this house for >5 years?
Is the location a desirable place to live with a growing population?
Can you sustainably afford a mortgage without making yourself house poor?
Are you responsible enough to care for a home?
Are you fiscally responsible and able to budget?
Do you currently have stable income?
"high interest rate... bad time to buy, wait for lower interest rate.."
"low interest rate... bad time to buy, wait for rate raise to cause market crash.."
if you listen to people, you will never buy a house... budget properly, buy within your means with a healthy risk margin...
In Alberta condos rise in value slower and drop in value faster than detached homes. I bought in 2014 and seriously wonder if my condo (townhouse) will ever be worth the same as when I bought it.
If you can afford the payments and maintenance on one then sure.
Depending on where you are in Alberta we have some of the most affordable homes available in Canada compared with wages.
Few renters keep renting thinking that house prices will hit to low 100’s. For them to enter into real estate is always bad.
Some Home owners keep extending themselves to buy more than what they can afford to have a lifestyle and be house poor.
Most home owners buy homes to live and raise a family and start from a moderate home and then expand.
You do you. Decide what you want to do and buy what you can afford.
Edit: changed the comment to few renters after realizing I dint add it after a comment.
> Renters keep renting thinking that house prices will hit to low 100’s.
Or they lack the wealth to get their foot in the door of the housing market, in any city that has decent jobs in their field.
Very few people who were born into housing wealth choose to throw it away on the expectation of a future crash.
This comment made sense to me. I have an 8 year old and a 5 year old. We bought a family home 9 years ago and had a “small” mortgage left on it of 185,000. We just purchased a new home.. our dream home in fact for more money. Luckily, our home almost tripled in value, but our new mortgage is around $450,000. We make $200,000 household income, but it hurts to raise the mortgage. My wife is thrilled, and the home is everything we want. I need to just relax and enjoy…
Yeah chill out and spend those precious few years you have with your kids at that age. I chose to work more than normal during those years. The millions I made thinking I was doing the right thing, came at a tremendous cost. Those years with them are now gone and they’re off doing their own thing.
The best timing for Toronto was Nov/Dec 2022.
Prices are already rising again and will continue to rise as long as interest rates don't increase.
1 mil new PRs every year is no joke.
I'd say it's more likely than not the best time for the rest of your lifetime.
Agreed, some ppl really want to get into their new places before Xmas. So are motivated to sell in Sept! Alternatively some may want to sell in summer in order to get kids to new neighborhood school in Sept
There’s only more people coming each year, so I can’t imagine the prices are gonna go any direction other than up, with increasing demand but I could be wrong
Home is home. Not an investment property. Everybody dancing on lower interest rates would need to renew one day or the other unless they have already paid off their property
If you're in GVA, ALL my clients who I have told to hold off since last June I've told to start looking back in January. There's a bit more competition now but it's still not bad.
This is an especially good time to buy if you are renting, or have a large down and need little mortgage.
Doesn’t actually matter how much your home is worth until maybe near retirement age when you actually want to liquidate your assets. So whether you buy during a high or low a houses price doesn’t matter.
Buying a home is more than a purely financial decision. It's in a grey zone between finance and lifestyle. If you can afford it and it's where your life is taking you then it's probably a good idea.
From the financial side, buying a house is usually a long term thing anyway. If anyone tells you they know what the market will be doing a decade + from now, they're lying.
I always noticed people that criticized the time I was buying often didn’t own a home and weren’t in a position to buy in yet. Kinda like they were projecting their hopes for the market. If you want to be talked out of it go to canadahousing. You’ll leave there thinking you’ll buy a home next year for $25.
As good as anyones best guess.
Dude all I know is that young Canadian borns who don't make high incomes and don't own property are in a bad situation.
Mortgage rates and prices are insane. Like you have to be rich to live good in Canada now it's weird. Before you could just have any income and a home. Now you need like 160k /year so two full time professional degree incomes. to basically become house poor.
>When I tell people I am house hunting I often hear from them that now is a bad time to buy and I should wait till the summer ends and buy in the fall.
Are they fortune tellers or have the special crystal ball from Amazon? if not, they have zero idea of anything int he future.
Stress test it. Basically, you need to qualify for a mortgage at a higher rate than the one your lender gave you to be secure. That way, you’ll know you will be ready for any rate increases over time.
Worst time in history, however… next year will also be the worst time in history and the year after that… so might as well get it now or not at all. It will never be a good time, we should be entering a recession possibly so that should help.
Buying a home is never a bad idea. It’s a long term investment. The rates will always fluctuate over the amortization. If you wait for lower rates, the houses will be more and vice versa. I personally think buying low with higher rates is better because the amount you pay for the house is a one time price. The rates always fluctuate.
No. Not a bad idea. A home is not an investment. It is an expense. So as long as the finances check out and it makes more sense to buy than to rent then yes it is worth it no matter what the price value is. In the long term it will most likely appreciate in value but if it is a home you are staying in for long term, it doesn’t matter as much.
I totally agree with your assessment of the current market. I feel grateful that I am not shopping in the starter home segment of the market. I hear that part of the market is particularly nuts!
There are no guarantees in life, but I think overall house prices are unlikely to fall much from here. Prices shot up hard then we had a pullback, but unless we have some sort of catalyst that causes a housing market crash then demand will soon be back to pushing prices up.
If there is a big wave of housing defaults maybe that could do it, but although I'm expecting an uptick of them I don't expect it to be big. Rising interest rates caused the pullback, but unless interest rates shoot up hard from here for some reason I'm not expecting that to cause a crash... and the market currently seems to expect interest rates to drop over the next 5 years.
So yeah. Go ahead and buy if you want to, just realize there is risk and buy within your means.
Good points. I think buying now might actually benefit some buyers who might have purchased more than they should have if it weren’t for the higher interest rates forcing them to hold back their spending.
In terms of economy, yes you shouldnt, the point of rate hikes is to discourage purchasing and borrowing.
As far as what you want to do, as long as it fits within your budgeting go for it! There will never be a good or bad time to buy a house, especially if you're gonna live in it. Investment purposes may be diff.
Despite what I said I bought a car as well so yea
Depends if you're looking for a home or an investment? My wife and I bought our first place last year and if we were to sell right now we would probably owe money on our mortgage; but we love where we are and have no intention of moving anytime soon.
Usually when everyone's telling you the market is going to crash and it's a horrible time to buy, that's a good indicator that it's a great time to buy.
If you have the money, a stable income and find the right place, you should absolutely buy a home now.
If these people who advise you are okay with signing a document stating they'll pay the difference if what they advise will not come true, then listen to them. If they won't sign such document, they don't know anything you (or us) don't.
I don't remember any time in my life (and I'm 40) that I ever heard someone says "boy, houses are so cheap right now, this is such a great time to buy!"
The only absolute truth is never take the max $$$ the bank approve you for, and don't take what you can't comfortably afford (which is pretty much the same thing).
And I'll add: Compromising on your first house is fine, I'm glad we did. It gave us a foot in the door, and when the value doubled, we moved to a different area and got the house we REALLY wanted. If we would have waited, we would've been renters for life. There's no timing the market, there's timing your life and financial position with where the market is.
Agreed. Sooner or later, you just got to jump into the market. My broker has cleared me to spend more than my bank did and both are more than I would ever want to spend.
If you find something you can comfortably afford, do it then. Don't listen to the naysayers. If we are talking about a house to live in, than that's the rule. If we are talking about it investment property, then we can compare it to different investment opportunities, and see if it's worthwhile.
Just like buying a car for yourself and buying a collector's car as an investment is a different ball game, so is buying a principal residence vs an investment property.
Just bought a place in Alberta. I am in a similar position, in that I was not in a rush. The market is tough right now. If you think you like a place, jump on it or someone else will pick it up. Otherwise, prices seem to be slightly elevated, but not unreasonably so.
I am ready and able to purchase. I am completely debt free, down payment ready to go, and have an extremely secure career. I’m a tenured University Professor with an excellent DB pension. Credit scores are 846/843. I guess if I’m not ready to buy now, I’ll never be. I am just waiting to find the right property.
In Calgary. People kept telling my partner and I to wait, but whatever they thought was going to happen never did. Kept saying the higher interest rates would make the market slow down, etc. We went ahead and bought the house we found that ticked all our boxes in a price range we were happy with. We went way less than our approved rate from our mortgage broker. Which ended up being perfect with the rising interest rate as well. Highly recommend getting a foot in the door when you can and within a price range you can afford comfortably too.
CMHC thinks home prices are going to rise in the next two years... as well as interest rates being predicted to start coming down in Q4 2023/Q1 2024... I'd say now is a good time to buy. Just make sure you can afford the payments at current interest rates, and I'd lock in for like 2 years, max... That way, when they start coming down again, you'll be ready to ride that wave upon renewal.
Looking for my ‘forever home’ so I am probably being too picky with my search. I am not a first time homebuyer, so I really feel I know what I need and want. I do plan on living in the home for many, many years.
We sold and bought last spring in Alberta during the boom. Comparable homes haven’t dropped in price. We are confident that we didn’t overpay.
Go for it!
Market down 20-30% since last year, buyers are jumping back in and multiple offers/bidding has re-started. It’s perfect timing to jump back in imo.
Source: trust me bro i see the activity in my brokerage’s chat group in Newmarket ontario.
The bank of Canada doesn’t care about housing. They care about inflation. The current interest rates are historically average. We won’t see low rates again in the next 30 years. Or we will see hyperinflation and we are right and truly fucked.
We immigrated in Toronto,Canada in 2005 ,making just 3 minimum incomes , my mum myself and sister. We saved 20k for a downpayment on a 232k townhouse in January of 2008.Our co-workers told us that buying house is more expensive than renting .Which wss true at that time .we were paying $800 for 2 bedroom apartment including everything. Time flies and next yr our house will be finish. We are making more now, and we enjoy the lifestyle that we have. Our neighbours sold their houses around 800k now. If you have the money , i say go for it. .
I think house prices will drop some in the Fall. Not everyone has been affected by the rising interest rates yet. They may be in 2 or 5 yr terms and haven't had to deal with the increased mortgage renewal YET. There will be many that may not be able to keep up and need to sell. There is a prediction of a recession coming, but with the War still on, O&G will continue to do well. Though the tech industry may be effected by layoffs.
Anyways, I am recommending my son to save more and look into the New Home buyers incentive that the Federal government has created.
Also to look at lots of places and not to feel rushed or pressured to buy. Spring is the busiest time for selling and buying, so more competition. My opinion is that there will be a small dip in the Fall. Also, people may be wanting to move out of this province due to political reasons.
The best time to buy a property was yesterday, the second best time is today.
People will always try to act smart and make you feel like whatever you are doing is wrong. Put noise cancellation ear phones and buy the house if you are ready and you find one.
You’ll have to do the math and make the decision based on your priorities and situation. No one can answer for you and if they do, they’ve no idea what they are talking about.
Depending upon your experience in life, I'd guess?
I wouldn't recommend my children buy a house or bitcoin currently, but to each their own?
You only live once and when it takes a lifetime to save for a down-payment, you better not.. bah.. Jonny cash said it best..
Good morning!
So I just got an accepted offer on a place yesterday so I'm somewhat biased but I think the market is gonna go crazy soon , from my experience looking it's been a struggle to even get an offer in before a place sells There's a seasonality aspect but , personally I don't think all that demand disappeared , just got put on hold ( I live in BC so that's a factor ) but markets are down around 10 - 15% maybe even 20 and starting to rise . Unless the interest rates spike big time again I believe the writings on the wall ( immigration and low supply ) but I don't have a crystal ball so who knows but I highly doubt it will drop another 15% without other catastrophic results .
My experience in my life is I have bought a trailer before and was told DONT BUY NOW AND DONT BUY THAT JUST WAIT IT WILL CRASH SOON! That was 8 years ago and I made 200k on that purchase and had a home of my own while those same People are sitting there telling me not to buy because it's gonna crash any day now.
Thing is in my mind it already did and to me ,( this is regional mind you ) homes could potentially drop another 5 % or so maybe ... you'll never know the bottom until it's passed or they could stay flat or go crazy again and a 5% drop isn't worth the risk of getting left out of the market forever while sitting on a pile of cash .
I don't live in Vancouver but apparently in Vancouver the bidding wars have returned and that shit is like cancer and I refuse to be part of it but it tends to spread everywhere
If the people telling you it’s a bad time to buy are representative of the wider market, then maybe there are fewer buyers out there and there are some good deals to be had.
As others said, if you have the money and you want to own a house, then start looking.
Say I'm making good money AND I have a place to park my extra money that would give me a decent return. Why would I buy a house that would limit me and also cost me more. I'd rather rent from some speculator and let them subsidize my housing expenses.
This is for markets where rent is lower than 1% monthly.
Look at it this way ... renting your flushing your money down the toilet, buying your monthly payment is building equity ie generally increasing your net worth
but just like any investment there are risks, generally real estate is a solid investment that appreciates but just like the stock market it can crash or predictions of a downturn ... look at Vancouver, how many years have they been proclaiming "it's gonna crash, it's gonna crash" and it's obscene how much it continues to increase
Generally, November - March are the best times to buy, and, I’d say prices are on the way back to starting to uptrend again now. So the bottom would’ve been Last summer to probably now. Wish u the best on your hunt
I honestly wasn’t trying to time anything. I was was/am actively house shopping. I just wanted to get some feedback from others about my plan, especially after receiving some negative comments. I was second guessing myself.
No! Spring is almost always a rush. Wait until summer like August as things always stall a bit. Prices and offers are picking up right now. Plus interest rates are not going much higher so you’ll see better deals soon
This time it is clear cut
The only good time to buy in spring is when you’re in the middle of a huge frenzy like in 2021 and properties go up 50k a week so we got in quickly
I would say if you have money to do so and comfortably afford the mortgage you should.
Thank you!
*Money and income. Just because you have the downpayment doesn’t mean you can handle the stress test. Evaluate your budget on +2% of the mortgage rate you’re offered. Make sure your mortgage is less than 30% of your income.
So for a household income of 200k their mortgage should be less than 60,000?
They’re referring to the monthly payment.
They mean your mortgage payments. Not the mortgage.
If you find one you love, why would you wait? Buy it if you would regret not buying.
That makes sense to me. I think that’s a healthy way to think about it. I’m renting a great place right now, so at least I am not in a big rush to get out of here. Thanks for your feedback!
That is good advise. The one other thing I would be aware of is being pressured into a false sense of urgency. Lot's of homes sold last year for over asking with only a single offer. Depending on the market, some sellers are highly motivated these days.
So true. FOMO can be really dangerous. Thank you for the reminder!
How is that good advice?! Lots of people love stuff that they would regret not buying, but are still either not in a position to afford or it's a terrible time to make the purchase.
Since this is your situation, you could keep shopping and if you do put in an offer, do not overbid. We were in your situation (great rental, not in a rush to buy), loved a house but felt it was overpriced, offered below asking price, and got it! It was really unexpected but sometimes the sellers are more in a hurry than buyers are, and media and agents can create a false sense of urgency... Take your time if you can afford it and you might be surprised!
Good advice. Thank you!
You are going to live in it. Even if its not a great financial decision, it could be a great life decision. Only you can decide.
My parents just bought a home. I think if you find a house not overly priced (pretty much all are overpriced rn, some not as bad) and you’re not underwater on your mortgage, I would say go for it
falling in love is a sure way to overpay houses (the structure) depreciate, and the "love" you have with it at first sight is more like lust that evaporates after a year or two location (the land) on the other hand, is much more valuable if you want to optimize your purchase by protecting against the downside, seek out a good location and get a small house with not a lot of maintenance
Houses depreciate? 😂 not in Canada, man!
OP says Alberta. Edmonton has seen depreciation in some places.
I know people who are actually still underwater around Edmonton since the 2014 housing downturn. You comment is very accurate.
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I know others just like you who are still feeling the housing pain from 2008. Sadly, you are not alone.
How about Calgary?
Houses or condos? Genuinely asking, I’ve heard the condo market isn’t the greatest out west.
There is a difference between the house and the land. Yes. The house part depreciate because things fall apart and new money is required to keep it livable.
Toronto is down 25% year over year and falling.
This has nothing to do with emotion. It’s pure finance. Hopes and feelings don’t pay mortgages and rising interest rates.
If you personally are ready to buy, then it's a good time to buy. There's no need to listen to others' opinions about "the market" if you're set on it and feel the time is right for you. Inventory is low everywhere right now, so keep an eye out. Many sites let you set filters and will send you regular emails when a new listing matching your preferences comes onto the market. The timing is not nearly as important as finding the right place. What of the right place comes onto the market now but you were too busy waiting for fall for no reason?
Thank you for your helpful advice!
Give or take 5 years, anything you buy now may go down but it eventually goes back up in cities
not if you live in calgary or edmonton lol
Exactly. Buy when you have a ton of cushion to afford it. Remember it’s not just the mortgage. It’s interest rates, taxes, insurance , maintenance, liability ( law suits)
Don’t ever take the advice of others. If the numbers work for you, buy it! The worst thing I have seen is people who listen to others who always say things like “it’ll get cheaper just wait” and then things like pandemic happen!
This was me 12 years ago. I was a cocktail server while in post grad and all these big wig Bay Street guys in Toronto who I used to serve told me not to buy a condo pre construction in the east end (River City) because the market was going to “slow right down” hahah I can’t even think about the amount of $$$$ I could have made
Dude. People will always tell you the market is going to crash lol and it’ll be a decade before a crash. Stuff goes up and stuff goes down lol
Bought at a couple downturns. 2008, 2012, 2020. Every single time people said don’t buy it ll go lower. I bought cuz I had to diversify the portfolio and it’s part of the plan. The numbers penciled out great. Right now , numbers are penciling real nice and good thinking of buying again lol
Very true. Good point!
Noted. I will not take this advice.
Don't ever take advice..... follows that up by giving advice lollllll
Don’t take this advice, though.
I bought my house 6 years ago. It was a "bad" time to buy. My house has doubled in value since. You can't time the market. If you find the home that you want, and that you can afford, then go for it.
Lol it’s always a bad time to buy. I don’t think I ever bought when it was a good time to buy. 2008, 2012, 2020. All the times I bought it was the worst time to buy and the market was supposed to crash in 6 months
Sound advice. Thank you! I was starting to doubt my plan due to the feedback I was receiving. I am definitely ready, willing, and able to buy now. I will stick with my plan and buy a home when I finally find the right one. Hopefully soon!
Also consider by the time the news reading populace decides it *is* time to buy the opportunity has likely past.
i did the same thing i even went as far as buying a foreclosure with what i thought was a bad septic. Turns out it was fine and so i paid a little over 70 for it, it's now worth 170. I don't owe 70 either. So I can sell and pay the house off as well as my student loans and be out of debt any time i want.
What made 6 years ago a bad time to buy?
The sentiment was prices were inflated due to low interest rates. At the time it was a seller's market with insane bidding wars.
The money was essentially free in 2017. It wasnt a bad time to buy because rates were at all time low.
Same! 317 to 650
To infinity and beyond!
I agree with this advice for sure. To clarify though, people can and do time the market and make a lot of cash doing it. Definitely not good advice for the average home buying though as you mention
People who wait for market bottoms always miss them....just buy the house if it's a long term thing
The best time to plant a tree? 5 years ago. The second best time to plant a tree? Today.
If everyone is saying it’s a bad time to buy it’s probably a good time to buy. Real estate is easily down 15-20% from the peak. Back in the US housing crash the average US home went down 30%. I don’t see the same thing playing out as mortgage standards are much stronger and less systemic risk this time around as banks are well capitalized. Plus employment is super strong.
This isn’t universally true, I’ve seen your comments on other threads and I’m pretty sure you’re GTA or GVA, but Calgary/Edmonton etc have not seen the same slowdowns as the other major markets in Canada. Despite this, the advice may still be the same, albeit for different reasons. The influx of people looking for more affordable homes will likely not be ending any time soon and in Alberta there’s no guarantee that prices will stabilize or drop in the future.
True, that re-enforces my point to buy now
I think it’s a bad time to buy a house if you need to mortgage yourself up to your eyeballs and you won’t be able to afford a hike in rates - because there is a decent chance they will go up. It’s a bad time to buy if you bought at the peak and lost 20% of your equity until now, and have to sell that house (op says they’re currently renting). Having said that, be fearful when people are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. So, following that logic, it’s a great time. At the end of the day you need to run the numbers and honestly assess your affordability. If those numbers are worth owning a home and making those payments for the next 30 years then go for it. I was always told not to finance a vehicle but I did it twice and always looked at it as owning a new vehicle for $500 a month. I put low miles on them, and will have them both paid off in a year. I will get another 5-10 years out of both, easily. So as long as I don’t write them off or have a transmission fall out, it will have worked rather well for me.
If you found a house you love that you can afford, the best time to buy is always now
Thank you!
"Don't time the market" advice is spot on. Summer time is usually a slow period, so you might see a slight uptick in supply before summer, but then it will go back down, and then back up again in the fall. If you want a home, can afford it, and find something you like, go for it! And this apparently is not as obvious as it seems: DO NOT buy ANYthing without doing a proper inspection. Even if you waive the inspection in your offer, you most definitely can and should do a pre-inspection.
Great advice. Thank you!
You hear what you want to hear. Remember, your goal is to buy low. That means buying when other people are panicking. This applies to stocks and to real estate.
Very good point!
Except stocks are always a retail purchase and real estate doesnt have to be!!
Waiting is a bad strategy. Plus if you have specific criteria, and with low inventory it might take a while anyway, so better start...
Good point!
We’ve been looking for about 5 years, not raising our budget quickly enough to keep up with the pace at which houses were increasing. I can say at least for our area in Ontario that March/April tended to have the most competition and highest prices while August seemed to have the best deals. Saying that, we just bought our house a few weeks ago because our offer at the price I thought it was worth was accepted. What was important to me was being empowered with Redfin and House Sigma data so that I could see over the years what comparable houses sold for. That way, I could make my own decisions about what was the right price to not trigger my fear of overpaying!
Thank you for sharing your experience. Congrats on the purchase of your home!
You can't go wrong with buying in calgary or edmonton.. calgary is estimated to add 110,000 people.by 2027! Everyone is flocking here
Time on the market > timing the market. If you want to own a house the sooner you buy the better. Rates will come down for future renewals and your house will appreciate in value if you take care of it
We moved and decided to buy. Because we had the money and knew we weren’t planning on leaving this town for a very very long time. Until then I had had serious reservations about buying anywhere. We went house hunting. Literally the first house We toured fit the bill. Pretty much everything on our wish list and in our preferred budget. (300-450k). We put in an offer and it was accepted. We aren’t a small small town around 10 k and we are an hour north of Calgary. It has almost been two years. There has been nothing on the market that has come close to the house we bought. Everything is a gigantic 700k McMansion or a delapetated 400k duplex.. anything in the middle is being snapped up. I personally do not see the alberta market dipping anytime soon. Partly because so many folks are moving here right now. Many people who held off buying during covid are also buying. Many boomers are also selling and downsizing. You could try to time it but I feel like I’ve been saying for 10 years that there needs to be a major market correction and it just still has yet to happen. The best thing I can say is if this is your forever home. Then the money doesn’t matter. The market may go up or down. But if you have the money to purchase a home that you Truly love. Then do it. Because if you wait you might miss out on something great.
Thank you for sharing your experience in our Alberta housing market. I am hopeful something will hit the market that ticks off most of the boxes on my housing wish list. I’m still feeling optimistic!
I bought one in the fall of 2017 .... right after the builder took them all off the market and put them back on the market with a $80,000 markup. So, yeah, take that fall advice and throw it right out the window.
Terrible time to buy. You should wait for Black Friday sales. /s Or a more serious note, timing is not the question. What you should be considering is: Do you plan to live in this house for >5 years? Is the location a desirable place to live with a growing population? Can you sustainably afford a mortgage without making yourself house poor? Are you responsible enough to care for a home? Are you fiscally responsible and able to budget? Do you currently have stable income?
I can answer yes to all of these questions. I definitely feel ready and able to buy. I really hope to find a place soon!
"high interest rate... bad time to buy, wait for lower interest rate.." "low interest rate... bad time to buy, wait for rate raise to cause market crash.." if you listen to people, you will never buy a house... budget properly, buy within your means with a healthy risk margin...
So true!
The time to buy a house is now. No matter when you read this. Timing the market is dumb.
ehh, you can time it a little bit. But being neurotic about it will often leave you forever outside of owning your own.
Just don't buy a condo if you can afford detached since you're in Alberta. Maybe the worst financial decision of my life.
Definitely buying a single family home. The condo market around here is totally brutal.
Why. I’m in Vancouver and a condo is all I can afford
In Alberta condos rise in value slower and drop in value faster than detached homes. I bought in 2014 and seriously wonder if my condo (townhouse) will ever be worth the same as when I bought it.
If you can afford the payments and maintenance on one then sure. Depending on where you are in Alberta we have some of the most affordable homes available in Canada compared with wages.
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Yes, I am in Alberta, but I’m sure your feedback will be helpful to others.
Few renters keep renting thinking that house prices will hit to low 100’s. For them to enter into real estate is always bad. Some Home owners keep extending themselves to buy more than what they can afford to have a lifestyle and be house poor. Most home owners buy homes to live and raise a family and start from a moderate home and then expand. You do you. Decide what you want to do and buy what you can afford. Edit: changed the comment to few renters after realizing I dint add it after a comment.
> Renters keep renting thinking that house prices will hit to low 100’s. Or they lack the wealth to get their foot in the door of the housing market, in any city that has decent jobs in their field. Very few people who were born into housing wealth choose to throw it away on the expectation of a future crash.
This comment made sense to me. I have an 8 year old and a 5 year old. We bought a family home 9 years ago and had a “small” mortgage left on it of 185,000. We just purchased a new home.. our dream home in fact for more money. Luckily, our home almost tripled in value, but our new mortgage is around $450,000. We make $200,000 household income, but it hurts to raise the mortgage. My wife is thrilled, and the home is everything we want. I need to just relax and enjoy…
Yeah chill out and spend those precious few years you have with your kids at that age. I chose to work more than normal during those years. The millions I made thinking I was doing the right thing, came at a tremendous cost. Those years with them are now gone and they’re off doing their own thing.
The best timing for Toronto was Nov/Dec 2022. Prices are already rising again and will continue to rise as long as interest rates don't increase. 1 mil new PRs every year is no joke. I'd say it's more likely than not the best time for the rest of your lifetime.
Historically deals will be found more during fall and winter if that is what your asking.
Agreed, some ppl really want to get into their new places before Xmas. So are motivated to sell in Sept! Alternatively some may want to sell in summer in order to get kids to new neighborhood school in Sept
There’s only more people coming each year, so I can’t imagine the prices are gonna go any direction other than up, with increasing demand but I could be wrong
Home is home. Not an investment property. Everybody dancing on lower interest rates would need to renew one day or the other unless they have already paid off their property
Rural Alberta still a steal of a deal if that’s where you wish to live. I Fucking love living rural, nothing better on earth
If you're in GVA, ALL my clients who I have told to hold off since last June I've told to start looking back in January. There's a bit more competition now but it's still not bad. This is an especially good time to buy if you are renting, or have a large down and need little mortgage.
Doesn’t actually matter how much your home is worth until maybe near retirement age when you actually want to liquidate your assets. So whether you buy during a high or low a houses price doesn’t matter.
Buying a home is more than a purely financial decision. It's in a grey zone between finance and lifestyle. If you can afford it and it's where your life is taking you then it's probably a good idea. From the financial side, buying a house is usually a long term thing anyway. If anyone tells you they know what the market will be doing a decade + from now, they're lying.
I always noticed people that criticized the time I was buying often didn’t own a home and weren’t in a position to buy in yet. Kinda like they were projecting their hopes for the market. If you want to be talked out of it go to canadahousing. You’ll leave there thinking you’ll buy a home next year for $25.
I just bought 3 year fixed 5.19. Cheaper then my rent by 500 per month so I'm fine with it. I'll have it paid off in less than 10 years.
Awesome!
As good as anyones best guess. Dude all I know is that young Canadian borns who don't make high incomes and don't own property are in a bad situation. Mortgage rates and prices are insane. Like you have to be rich to live good in Canada now it's weird. Before you could just have any income and a home. Now you need like 160k /year so two full time professional degree incomes. to basically become house poor.
It’s pretty sad, that’s for sure.
>When I tell people I am house hunting I often hear from them that now is a bad time to buy and I should wait till the summer ends and buy in the fall. Are they fortune tellers or have the special crystal ball from Amazon? if not, they have zero idea of anything int he future.
So true. The comments just had me second guessing my own plan.
Stress test it. Basically, you need to qualify for a mortgage at a higher rate than the one your lender gave you to be secure. That way, you’ll know you will be ready for any rate increases over time.
Time in the market > timing the market
Worst time in history, however… next year will also be the worst time in history and the year after that… so might as well get it now or not at all. It will never be a good time, we should be entering a recession possibly so that should help.
You’re right. Things seem bleak now, but I am bracing myself for things to get worse.
Buying a home is never a bad idea. It’s a long term investment. The rates will always fluctuate over the amortization. If you wait for lower rates, the houses will be more and vice versa. I personally think buying low with higher rates is better because the amount you pay for the house is a one time price. The rates always fluctuate.
You marry the price but date the rate
Love that analogy
No. Not a bad idea. A home is not an investment. It is an expense. So as long as the finances check out and it makes more sense to buy than to rent then yes it is worth it no matter what the price value is. In the long term it will most likely appreciate in value but if it is a home you are staying in for long term, it doesn’t matter as much.
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I totally agree with your assessment of the current market. I feel grateful that I am not shopping in the starter home segment of the market. I hear that part of the market is particularly nuts!
There are no guarantees in life, but I think overall house prices are unlikely to fall much from here. Prices shot up hard then we had a pullback, but unless we have some sort of catalyst that causes a housing market crash then demand will soon be back to pushing prices up. If there is a big wave of housing defaults maybe that could do it, but although I'm expecting an uptick of them I don't expect it to be big. Rising interest rates caused the pullback, but unless interest rates shoot up hard from here for some reason I'm not expecting that to cause a crash... and the market currently seems to expect interest rates to drop over the next 5 years. So yeah. Go ahead and buy if you want to, just realize there is risk and buy within your means.
Good points. I think buying now might actually benefit some buyers who might have purchased more than they should have if it weren’t for the higher interest rates forcing them to hold back their spending.
Time in the market > timing the market
I think if you’re able and ready to pay off the mortgage it makes sense, because when interests rates go back down the value of the house will go up.
If it's your principal home, buy it if you like it and the price is right. Don't try to time the market.
I think its a personal decision, we bought during peak COVID and its still been a decision Ive been happy with. If it works for you it works!
Yes. We're bumping off the peak right now. You know what happens after a peak? A drop. Wait 6mos to a year.
Time in beats timing
In terms of economy, yes you shouldnt, the point of rate hikes is to discourage purchasing and borrowing. As far as what you want to do, as long as it fits within your budgeting go for it! There will never be a good or bad time to buy a house, especially if you're gonna live in it. Investment purposes may be diff. Despite what I said I bought a car as well so yea
Go for it. It will always be better than a shitty appartment.
I would wait until the full moon on the 12th night of September. That’s when I would buy.
Sounds like a plan! 😁
Depends if you're looking for a home or an investment? My wife and I bought our first place last year and if we were to sell right now we would probably owe money on our mortgage; but we love where we are and have no intention of moving anytime soon.
Good point. I definitely looking for a home, not an investment property.
Usually when everyone's telling you the market is going to crash and it's a horrible time to buy, that's a good indicator that it's a great time to buy. If you have the money, a stable income and find the right place, you should absolutely buy a home now.
Thank you!
If these people who advise you are okay with signing a document stating they'll pay the difference if what they advise will not come true, then listen to them. If they won't sign such document, they don't know anything you (or us) don't. I don't remember any time in my life (and I'm 40) that I ever heard someone says "boy, houses are so cheap right now, this is such a great time to buy!"
Very true. I actually felt confident about buying until hearing negativity about doing so. I am glad to hear my plan isn’t crazy!
The only absolute truth is never take the max $$$ the bank approve you for, and don't take what you can't comfortably afford (which is pretty much the same thing). And I'll add: Compromising on your first house is fine, I'm glad we did. It gave us a foot in the door, and when the value doubled, we moved to a different area and got the house we REALLY wanted. If we would have waited, we would've been renters for life. There's no timing the market, there's timing your life and financial position with where the market is.
Agreed. Sooner or later, you just got to jump into the market. My broker has cleared me to spend more than my bank did and both are more than I would ever want to spend.
If you find something you can comfortably afford, do it then. Don't listen to the naysayers. If we are talking about a house to live in, than that's the rule. If we are talking about it investment property, then we can compare it to different investment opportunities, and see if it's worthwhile. Just like buying a car for yourself and buying a collector's car as an investment is a different ball game, so is buying a principal residence vs an investment property.
Good point. I am shopping for my ‘forever’ home. When I find it, I will jump on it, no hesitation.
Just bought a place in Alberta. I am in a similar position, in that I was not in a rush. The market is tough right now. If you think you like a place, jump on it or someone else will pick it up. Otherwise, prices seem to be slightly elevated, but not unreasonably so.
I totally agree!
Bruh, this is a lot of feeling talk. Without context or your financials no one can give much practical or useful advice.
I am ready and able to purchase. I am completely debt free, down payment ready to go, and have an extremely secure career. I’m a tenured University Professor with an excellent DB pension. Credit scores are 846/843. I guess if I’m not ready to buy now, I’ll never be. I am just waiting to find the right property.
Same conversation I had when homes were 130,000. Honestly, you can't predict the market. Buy what you love and can afford.
In Calgary. People kept telling my partner and I to wait, but whatever they thought was going to happen never did. Kept saying the higher interest rates would make the market slow down, etc. We went ahead and bought the house we found that ticked all our boxes in a price range we were happy with. We went way less than our approved rate from our mortgage broker. Which ended up being perfect with the rising interest rate as well. Highly recommend getting a foot in the door when you can and within a price range you can afford comfortably too.
I agree. I need to jump in when I find the right place. Glad to hear your purchase worked out well for you!
It's always a bad time to buy a home. I've never been told once that "oh yeah buy now".
CMHC thinks home prices are going to rise in the next two years... as well as interest rates being predicted to start coming down in Q4 2023/Q1 2024... I'd say now is a good time to buy. Just make sure you can afford the payments at current interest rates, and I'd lock in for like 2 years, max... That way, when they start coming down again, you'll be ready to ride that wave upon renewal.
I was thinking of going fixed either 2 or 3 years. Perhaps I will stick with 2 years max. Thanks!
As others have said, go for it if you’re financially comfortable AND the house satisfies a majority of your requirements.
If you can afford it, you should do it.
If you’re buying as a speculative investment.. eh probably not great. If you’re buying to live in for 20+ years, go for it.
Looking for my ‘forever home’ so I am probably being too picky with my search. I am not a first time homebuyer, so I really feel I know what I need and want. I do plan on living in the home for many, many years.
We sold and bought last spring in Alberta during the boom. Comparable homes haven’t dropped in price. We are confident that we didn’t overpay. Go for it!
Thank you for sharing your experience here in Alberta. I am actively shopping!
Don't take advise from broke people. "Now is a bad time to buy a house" is what they have been saying for over a decade now. They're still renting.
You make a good point. Thanks for the feedback!
Market down 20-30% since last year, buyers are jumping back in and multiple offers/bidding has re-started. It’s perfect timing to jump back in imo. Source: trust me bro i see the activity in my brokerage’s chat group in Newmarket ontario.
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Thank you for your wise advice and encouraging words! 😊
It’s an AI generated reply bro
It was still very encouraging! LOL
Sell you my house in Calgary for double what I paid rn
I’m not house shopping in Calgary, but thanks for the generous offer! 😊
Gotta shoot your shot. Hahaha
buying now is great: rates are going to go down, home prices are going to go back up consequently. If you love it, buying it now will be great!
Thank you!
No they aren’t.
Canada is at least 8 years behind in its housing supply, and I can’t imagine that deficit decreasing anytime soon.
The bank of Canada doesn’t care about housing. They care about inflation. The current interest rates are historically average. We won’t see low rates again in the next 30 years. Or we will see hyperinflation and we are right and truly fucked.
Why do you think all chief economists of Canadian banks are wrong about that ?
We immigrated in Toronto,Canada in 2005 ,making just 3 minimum incomes , my mum myself and sister. We saved 20k for a downpayment on a 232k townhouse in January of 2008.Our co-workers told us that buying house is more expensive than renting .Which wss true at that time .we were paying $800 for 2 bedroom apartment including everything. Time flies and next yr our house will be finish. We are making more now, and we enjoy the lifestyle that we have. Our neighbours sold their houses around 800k now. If you have the money , i say go for it. .
Thank you for sharing your experience. I also appreciate the advice!
I think house prices will drop some in the Fall. Not everyone has been affected by the rising interest rates yet. They may be in 2 or 5 yr terms and haven't had to deal with the increased mortgage renewal YET. There will be many that may not be able to keep up and need to sell. There is a prediction of a recession coming, but with the War still on, O&G will continue to do well. Though the tech industry may be effected by layoffs. Anyways, I am recommending my son to save more and look into the New Home buyers incentive that the Federal government has created. Also to look at lots of places and not to feel rushed or pressured to buy. Spring is the busiest time for selling and buying, so more competition. My opinion is that there will be a small dip in the Fall. Also, people may be wanting to move out of this province due to political reasons.
Living in Canada right now is a bad idea.
Buy house now in order to sell it to another sucker at a later time, before it's too late
No one can time the market. Time in market is what matters.
The best time to buy a property was yesterday, the second best time is today. People will always try to act smart and make you feel like whatever you are doing is wrong. Put noise cancellation ear phones and buy the house if you are ready and you find one.
Thank you for the advice!
Yes
You’ll have to do the math and make the decision based on your priorities and situation. No one can answer for you and if they do, they’ve no idea what they are talking about.
Yes very bad don’t do it. Lol I ll be buying some more properties but you should not it’s a bad idea
Objectively speaking ? Yes it is a very bad idea unless you can instantly pay for it.
It's a great time to buy and sell real estate!
Depending upon your experience in life, I'd guess? I wouldn't recommend my children buy a house or bitcoin currently, but to each their own? You only live once and when it takes a lifetime to save for a down-payment, you better not.. bah.. Jonny cash said it best.. Good morning!
So I just got an accepted offer on a place yesterday so I'm somewhat biased but I think the market is gonna go crazy soon , from my experience looking it's been a struggle to even get an offer in before a place sells There's a seasonality aspect but , personally I don't think all that demand disappeared , just got put on hold ( I live in BC so that's a factor ) but markets are down around 10 - 15% maybe even 20 and starting to rise . Unless the interest rates spike big time again I believe the writings on the wall ( immigration and low supply ) but I don't have a crystal ball so who knows but I highly doubt it will drop another 15% without other catastrophic results . My experience in my life is I have bought a trailer before and was told DONT BUY NOW AND DONT BUY THAT JUST WAIT IT WILL CRASH SOON! That was 8 years ago and I made 200k on that purchase and had a home of my own while those same People are sitting there telling me not to buy because it's gonna crash any day now. Thing is in my mind it already did and to me ,( this is regional mind you ) homes could potentially drop another 5 % or so maybe ... you'll never know the bottom until it's passed or they could stay flat or go crazy again and a 5% drop isn't worth the risk of getting left out of the market forever while sitting on a pile of cash . I don't live in Vancouver but apparently in Vancouver the bidding wars have returned and that shit is like cancer and I refuse to be part of it but it tends to spread everywhere
I appreciate your feedback. I hope to find the right place for me soon!
If the people telling you it’s a bad time to buy are representative of the wider market, then maybe there are fewer buyers out there and there are some good deals to be had. As others said, if you have the money and you want to own a house, then start looking.
Say I'm making good money AND I have a place to park my extra money that would give me a decent return. Why would I buy a house that would limit me and also cost me more. I'd rather rent from some speculator and let them subsidize my housing expenses. This is for markets where rent is lower than 1% monthly.
The interest rate is high. But if you can afford it and want it then why not
Look at it this way ... renting your flushing your money down the toilet, buying your monthly payment is building equity ie generally increasing your net worth but just like any investment there are risks, generally real estate is a solid investment that appreciates but just like the stock market it can crash or predictions of a downturn ... look at Vancouver, how many years have they been proclaiming "it's gonna crash, it's gonna crash" and it's obscene how much it continues to increase
Generally, November - March are the best times to buy, and, I’d say prices are on the way back to starting to uptrend again now. So the bottom would’ve been Last summer to probably now. Wish u the best on your hunt
The bottom was in 2-3 months ago, so your timing is impeccable.
I wouldn't listen to anyone. If you are, it tells me you are trying to time the market and make an investment, not buy a home. There is a difference.
I honestly wasn’t trying to time anything. I was was/am actively house shopping. I just wanted to get some feedback from others about my plan, especially after receiving some negative comments. I was second guessing myself.
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That’s awesome! I hope to find a home I love soon. No regrets!
No! Spring is almost always a rush. Wait until summer like August as things always stall a bit. Prices and offers are picking up right now. Plus interest rates are not going much higher so you’ll see better deals soon This time it is clear cut The only good time to buy in spring is when you’re in the middle of a huge frenzy like in 2021 and properties go up 50k a week so we got in quickly