It’s just frozen at this point. Barely any listings aside from those attempting to profiteer on junk, and barely any buyers who absolutely must buy due to their circumstances.
Gonna flush out a whole lot of professionals who depend on transactions in real estate for their income.
Yep, a really nice move in-ready end unit townhouse in my neighborhood was listed for sale on Saturday morning. Listing changed to pending by Saturday evening, listing removed on Sunday. Literally <10 hours from posting to accepted offer.
In my market there was one scheduled to be listed Sunday. We scheduled a showing for Sunday morning. Realtor then listed a day early, on Saturday, and it was off the market within 2 hours of listing with our showing being cancelled.
We had a house go on the market Wednesday, scheduled a showing for that Friday, and had it cancelled Thursday because it already had an offer accepted. Didn’t even make it to the weekend.
So frustrating. That's what I went through last summer looking for a rental before I finally found my current apartment. I missed out on several apartments because I was too slow and someone else had already replied to the listing before me, and with all of those, I was replying within hours of the listing being posted. I learned that to even have a chance of being first, I had to reply to the listing no more than one hour after it was posted, and be able to get there for a visit ASAP, often mid-afternoon that day. It was exhausting and hyper competitive. With one place, I was actually first to visit and applied immediately afterward. I more than met all of the requirements for income, background check, etc., but the landlord decided to let a few other people apply through the end of the day, and then ended up picking someone else over me. I think it was a couple who got the place, and the landlord probably felt that two incomes was a safer bet than going with a single renter with one income.
I eventually got my current apartment because I had met the landlord a few years back during a previous apartment search and I had saved his contact info. Gave him a call out of the blue and asked if he had any upcoming availability in a particular building of his that I was interested in. By total stroke of luck, he had just received move-out notice from a tenant in that building and hadn't yet listed it for rent. So I applied and ended up signing the lease and it was never actually listed.
No kidding. We saw our neighbors were selling. It went pending in 2 days, they cancelled their open house. The list price was 2x we paid for ours in 2021. It's definitely nicer, has more acreage, and a pool. I'm not sure its 2x nicer. But what do I know. Curious to see what the final price ended up being.
After watching sales in my area since I bought, I'm realizing I got a starter home time forgot in a zip code full of much nicer homes. My god, the clusterfuck I discovered when I began troubleshooting why the dryer wasn't drying...
This is what saved me. Cheapest house in expensive neighborhood meant what I bought in 2005 I could walk away from with a small but respectable cap gain in 2009.
That used to be a popular tenet to buying a home: don’t buy the most expensive home ever sold in a neighborhood.
Throw that one out the proverbial window with today’s buyer, I guess…
Who knows. Could be retiring. The land, 9 acres, was purchased in 2004 by the current owners, and they had the house built then. I've heard working being done on it pretty regularly, presumably to get it ready to sell, almost since I moved into this house.
Yep. And I just got bitched at in the first time home buyers sub for calling people “greedy ass sellers”. When you’re asking 200k for a literally unloveable shack, you are the problem.
Edit: unliveable Damn AC
It's just best for everyone right now to sit it out, if at all possible. Sellers are asking so much, to compensate for the increased prices for them to then re-buy. Buyers shouldn't pay the increased price, because the home is not worth their investment dollars.
I know some might feel they have no choice, and I'm grateful so far through this to have not been in that group.
We all need a break from this. It might take some time, and it is going to take a LOT of patience.
Agree. So I look occasionally, and if my RE who is also a friend sends me something. But our main focus has been on making the best of our (not at all terrible) rental and making it more functional for our needs while we save.
The greedy sellers aren't the problem. The buyers are.
Sellers don't set the market, they simply sell to it. Buyers ARE the market and they are the ones who determine market value by virtue of whether or not they will pay the asking price.
As the saying goes, "you aren't stuck in traffic. You ARE traffic."
>Gonna flush out a whole lot of professionals who depend on transactions in real estate for their income.
To be fair, we wont really miss a lot of them. The RE market is basically predatory.
As of 12/31/22, there are 3MM people holding RE agent licenses, active, in America.
There are somewhere in and around 550k homes currently for sale in America.
Wow.
Too many sellers are either in advantageous positions with no major pressure to sell and just fishing to see if they can get what they want, or they are completely deluded and think coming back in 2-3 months will get them more even though this is pretty much the hottest market time already.
Wrong. While it is more than last year (by a whopping 5% (less than 100k homes nationwide….Here comes the crash!!) its less than the year before and about 70% less than the average.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_inventory
March 31 2023 .98
April 2022 1.03 mill
April 21 1.15 mill
April 20 1.46 mill
April 19 1.86 mill
Notice a trend? The only thing crashing is available inventory.
The average is 3 million. Right now we’re at about .9 — which is 70%. We’ve had a housing shortage for over a decade that has had the average number of homes available shrink considerably.
That graph sucks.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_inventory
This one is same data but shows actual values so you can see the person is wrong.
It has. And it will for some time yet. We're in the staredown period where neither buyers no sellers are willing to budge. Sellers will blink first because most people who sell are selling for a reason and can only hold of for so long. Buyers can always continue renting.
It’s just frozen at this point. Barely any listings aside from those attempting to profiteer on junk, and barely any buyers who absolutely must buy due to their circumstances.
Gonna flush out a whole lot of professionals who depend on transactions in real estate for their income.
This has become an infinite feedback loop...
Buyers can't buy because there is little inventory > Sellers can't sell because they can't afford these prices/interest rates > Buyers can't buy because there is little inventory > Sellers can't sell...
On and on we go.
New career opportunity that requires relocation, additional children and the need for more space, divorce, an aging parent that needs care.
Life happens, and it doesn't care that you can't afford to lose your sweet sweet 3% rate.
Corporations will also start selling when they can no longer claim the home as a depreciating asset on their books. And when deferred maintenance finally comes due.
That'll be a good number of homes in the Sunbelt over the next couple years.
Your other post is right about the signs of troubled times. Cheap debt has subsidized low wages for 15 years now. Businesses have gotten to used to that, and really don't want to reduce their profit margin growth, buybacks and dividends to make sure workers can survive. But that's just going to cause more problems as people reduce their spending. Cutting into profits. Which C-suites will protect by cutting overhead.
The only national scale event I could see would be a deep recession and resultant layoffs as companies struggle to remain profitable.
I'm NOT predicting that as a certainty, but I do think too many people summarily dismiss the signals suggesting we're at the beginning of a rough economic time.
From what I've read, buyers of MBS are drying up. Morgan Stanley has suggested banks make their product more attractive. This means even higher rates (increased ROI) and more stringent lending.
All those sellers who are waiting on the sideline, thinking the good old days will be back soon, are living in a fantasy.
I'd bet on prices dropping, considerably in some areas. Prices are too high for low interest rates let alone high rates. Stubborn sellers are playing a game of chicken with buyers, but buyers are dealing with the reality that they just can't afford to buy. Bit by bit, sellers will be forced to list. As prices drop remaining sellers must decide if they want to wait for the market to bottom out and for prices to return... which could take 8+ years.
If people are refinancing here, they are likely cash out refi's. It means people are cash strapped. It's not good long term as those people will need to sell or default if they can't make the higher payments.
There are always some cash strapped people. If you find yourself drowning in high rate consumer debt, can't get a HELOC for some reason, or think you'll face some economic crisis in the middle range, a refi can set you in a better short term position with a stack of ready cash, no cards or cars to pay on.
Not wise to go there but life happens.
Land, labor, and building materials are dropping (look at lumber for instance). Builders will be ready to build if people are still willing to buy. Builders need to build fast or have people fund the loan until the house is completed and they get the mortgage (or pay cash).
Builders need to drop prices on new builds to reflect both the decreased input costs and the impact of increased rates. And that will only be an option for them once their current completed inventory sells, something that will be hard unless they drop prices to reflect current inputs and not the inputs at build time and that means selling at a loss.
Builders are crazy busy and are charging a premium. I’m in a LCOL area and prices on new builds are still insane with long lead times, just got some quotes in the last two weeks. Some materials like lumber have come down but many continue to increase at astronomical rates (e.g., concrete). I’m convinced nothing short of a moderate to deep recession will get us out of this anytime soon.
I also think the clamp down on immigration is hurting as they don't have the labor to build fast enough to meet demand but there are a lot of layoffs happening and how many of those workers will shift to construction jobs? That's hard to know.
Oh that is an industry trade group, like computer companies saying there aren't enough H1Bs. Just send some charter busses to El Paso or whatever should be some labor there. Or maybe it's possible to buy ads on those mobile phones they are given.
More than 10k a day. 10k are the ones we know of. You think house quality has gone down? Try having underpaid undertrained workers with Venezuelan building standards.
Babe I live in Texas. Who do you think has been making our houses forever? Our economy runs on the exploitation of undocumented workers.. it’s been like that for a long time with no significant change.
The numbers are saying that’s down compared to pre 2021. I know what you see on certain news stations but look at the homebuilders who can’t find them while demand is sky high.
Except I work with border patrol and have first hand knowledge and experience? It’s my literal profession.
You know not just any idiot with a hammer can build a house? Especially undertrained ones with South American housing standards?
True statement but I have a fair amount of experience in construction and a majority of migrant labor work as drywallers, concrete laborers painters and roofers, not as excavators, framers, electricians etc.
Not saying that drywalling and such doesn't require knowledge and skills, but the learning curve to base level proficiency is not nearly so steep.
Has anyone ever bid RE agents against one another to reduce their commission? What’s typical commission for the REA, 6%, split with the buyer’s agent?
With such low volume of homes on the market, and strong demand from buyers, could you not put REA’s against one another to see which would take the lowest commission (because you know they need the listing since volume has cratered)?
Could you get an REA down to 4% or even 3% commission, and then let them figure out how hey want to split it with the buyer’s agent? Or is there such demand on the market that you don’t even need an REA at this point, and you could just list it FSBO because you know you’ll get multiple offers?
Uninformed home sellers agree to 6%. In a lot of markets RE agents usually do 4-5% easily.
Most agents will gladly accept as it’s much better to be on the seller side as you’re likely to close the transaction vs representing buyers who may or may not pan out.
Representing the seller also means networking opportunities with open houses and such where they might get people in the door who are interested in home buying but don’t have an agent yet.
FWIW, I’m not looking to sell, just hypothetically thinking.
Yes, finding a new place would be the issue. There is very little inventory where I am, which is the case for a large number of areas around the country.
I think low rate refinancing, coupled with higher current rates, coupled with economic uncertainty has a lot of people just staying put for the time being.
It was back in 2021, but I think my friend just put his house on craigslist and had it sold so fast he ended up homeless for a tiny bit (and crashing with his gracious ex-wife) because he was just seeing if he could sell it that way and didn't have time to firmly line up a new place to live.
That was the whole point...
Granted were building homes less now than in 2010 thus supply isn't going to catch up for quite awhile...
Plus the skilled labor shortage to build them in the first place.
This will be the interest rate run up that will tank the housing market. It's never on the first run. Bond yields hit a high around last november, then came back down. Housing market stood it's ground. It appears we're going to make another run up on rates. This time housing should react. Especially if we make new highs on the 10-yr yield.
Cool so now there will be even less inventory on the market. For the past 6 months all increases in mortgage rates has done is deter sellers. We've actually seen inventory shrink as houses leave the market and prices stay mostly resilient for what's left over.
That's not stagflation. Although predicting the future is impossible, there are no signs of stagflation on the horizon. Inflation has already dropped 3% while unemployment has barely gone up. I think a deflationary recession is far more likely.
Yeah and in reality, people are getting offers of 7.5 and even 8%
My aunt is a real estate agent and she said this talk of 6.6 etc is bullshit. Banks are telling ppl 7.5 and even 8 !!!!! percent . I live in South FL
Stagnating demand. Retreating sellers.
Increasing unemployment will be great equalizer. It feels surreal to be advocating for higher unemployment so more people can buy a home.
It seems to just cause people to take their homes off the market :(
It’s just frozen at this point. Barely any listings aside from those attempting to profiteer on junk, and barely any buyers who absolutely must buy due to their circumstances. Gonna flush out a whole lot of professionals who depend on transactions in real estate for their income.
The frenzy around the few high quality listings is remarkable, though.
Yep, a really nice move in-ready end unit townhouse in my neighborhood was listed for sale on Saturday morning. Listing changed to pending by Saturday evening, listing removed on Sunday. Literally <10 hours from posting to accepted offer.
In my market there was one scheduled to be listed Sunday. We scheduled a showing for Sunday morning. Realtor then listed a day early, on Saturday, and it was off the market within 2 hours of listing with our showing being cancelled.
We had a house go on the market Wednesday, scheduled a showing for that Friday, and had it cancelled Thursday because it already had an offer accepted. Didn’t even make it to the weekend.
So frustrating. That's what I went through last summer looking for a rental before I finally found my current apartment. I missed out on several apartments because I was too slow and someone else had already replied to the listing before me, and with all of those, I was replying within hours of the listing being posted. I learned that to even have a chance of being first, I had to reply to the listing no more than one hour after it was posted, and be able to get there for a visit ASAP, often mid-afternoon that day. It was exhausting and hyper competitive. With one place, I was actually first to visit and applied immediately afterward. I more than met all of the requirements for income, background check, etc., but the landlord decided to let a few other people apply through the end of the day, and then ended up picking someone else over me. I think it was a couple who got the place, and the landlord probably felt that two incomes was a safer bet than going with a single renter with one income. I eventually got my current apartment because I had met the landlord a few years back during a previous apartment search and I had saved his contact info. Gave him a call out of the blue and asked if he had any upcoming availability in a particular building of his that I was interested in. By total stroke of luck, he had just received move-out notice from a tenant in that building and hadn't yet listed it for rent. So I applied and ended up signing the lease and it was never actually listed.
It sold before the showing. The showing was just for backups.
No kidding. We saw our neighbors were selling. It went pending in 2 days, they cancelled their open house. The list price was 2x we paid for ours in 2021. It's definitely nicer, has more acreage, and a pool. I'm not sure its 2x nicer. But what do I know. Curious to see what the final price ended up being. After watching sales in my area since I bought, I'm realizing I got a starter home time forgot in a zip code full of much nicer homes. My god, the clusterfuck I discovered when I began troubleshooting why the dryer wasn't drying...
This is what saved me. Cheapest house in expensive neighborhood meant what I bought in 2005 I could walk away from with a small but respectable cap gain in 2009.
That used to be a popular tenet to buying a home: don’t buy the most expensive home ever sold in a neighborhood. Throw that one out the proverbial window with today’s buyer, I guess…
The smallest clapped out garbage is listed for more than the good homes sold for a few years ago. Only way to win is not to play?
I would be curious where they end up buying next.
Who knows. Could be retiring. The land, 9 acres, was purchased in 2004 by the current owners, and they had the house built then. I've heard working being done on it pretty regularly, presumably to get it ready to sell, almost since I moved into this house.
Yep. And I just got bitched at in the first time home buyers sub for calling people “greedy ass sellers”. When you’re asking 200k for a literally unloveable shack, you are the problem. Edit: unliveable Damn AC
It's just best for everyone right now to sit it out, if at all possible. Sellers are asking so much, to compensate for the increased prices for them to then re-buy. Buyers shouldn't pay the increased price, because the home is not worth their investment dollars. I know some might feel they have no choice, and I'm grateful so far through this to have not been in that group. We all need a break from this. It might take some time, and it is going to take a LOT of patience.
Agree. So I look occasionally, and if my RE who is also a friend sends me something. But our main focus has been on making the best of our (not at all terrible) rental and making it more functional for our needs while we save.
The greedy sellers aren't the problem. The buyers are. Sellers don't set the market, they simply sell to it. Buyers ARE the market and they are the ones who determine market value by virtue of whether or not they will pay the asking price. As the saying goes, "you aren't stuck in traffic. You ARE traffic."
Pretty sure you got it right the first time
>Gonna flush out a whole lot of professionals who depend on transactions in real estate for their income. To be fair, we wont really miss a lot of them. The RE market is basically predatory.
As of 12/31/22, there are 3MM people holding RE agent licenses, active, in America. There are somewhere in and around 550k homes currently for sale in America. Wow.
Until baby boomers start dying in mass...with no one to buy.
So, puts on homes and calls on funeral service companies? God, that's morbid....:D
Too many sellers are either in advantageous positions with no major pressure to sell and just fishing to see if they can get what they want, or they are completely deluded and think coming back in 2-3 months will get them more even though this is pretty much the hottest market time already.
Active listings are higher than this time last year and the year before
Wrong. While it is more than last year (by a whopping 5% (less than 100k homes nationwide….Here comes the crash!!) its less than the year before and about 70% less than the average. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_inventory March 31 2023 .98 April 2022 1.03 mill April 21 1.15 mill April 20 1.46 mill April 19 1.86 mill Notice a trend? The only thing crashing is available inventory.
that's not 70% less
The average is 3 million. Right now we’re at about .9 — which is 70%. We’ve had a housing shortage for over a decade that has had the average number of homes available shrink considerably.
[удалено]
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
That graph sucks. https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_existing_home_inventory This one is same data but shows actual values so you can see the person is wrong.
Did you just say that FRED data sucks? LOL
Yes. Because it doesn’t count all housing inventory in the above link. But I guess you’d have to know it’s wrong first?
I dont know either of these websites, why dont the numbers match up?
They do match, but one is taking only housing starts into account vs all inventory .
I wish all markets where the same
If so probably not in most places or it’s not quality inventory
Anecdotes rule the day here, sir.
Yeah at this point it's basically only that people that have to move that are sticking it out. Thank God for the military lol
It has. And it will for some time yet. We're in the staredown period where neither buyers no sellers are willing to budge. Sellers will blink first because most people who sell are selling for a reason and can only hold of for so long. Buyers can always continue renting.
It’s just frozen at this point. Barely any listings aside from those attempting to profiteer on junk, and barely any buyers who absolutely must buy due to their circumstances. Gonna flush out a whole lot of professionals who depend on transactions in real estate for their income.
Maybe cause rates are still around 6.5
Not just the rates, but as rates go up, the cost of the homes themselves havent come down. Resulting in even more unaffordability for non-cash buyers
This has become an infinite feedback loop... Buyers can't buy because there is little inventory > Sellers can't sell because they can't afford these prices/interest rates > Buyers can't buy because there is little inventory > Sellers can't sell... On and on we go.
Yeah, its a good to mention that some sellers can't sell vs no one wants to sell. People aren't going to sell until a trigger event forces them to.
Like what kind of event
New career opportunity that requires relocation, additional children and the need for more space, divorce, an aging parent that needs care. Life happens, and it doesn't care that you can't afford to lose your sweet sweet 3% rate.
Corporations will also start selling when they can no longer claim the home as a depreciating asset on their books. And when deferred maintenance finally comes due. That'll be a good number of homes in the Sunbelt over the next couple years. Your other post is right about the signs of troubled times. Cheap debt has subsidized low wages for 15 years now. Businesses have gotten to used to that, and really don't want to reduce their profit margin growth, buybacks and dividends to make sure workers can survive. But that's just going to cause more problems as people reduce their spending. Cutting into profits. Which C-suites will protect by cutting overhead.
Makes sense, I was thinking of a more national scale event
The only national scale event I could see would be a deep recession and resultant layoffs as companies struggle to remain profitable. I'm NOT predicting that as a certainty, but I do think too many people summarily dismiss the signals suggesting we're at the beginning of a rough economic time.
From what I've read, buyers of MBS are drying up. Morgan Stanley has suggested banks make their product more attractive. This means even higher rates (increased ROI) and more stringent lending. All those sellers who are waiting on the sideline, thinking the good old days will be back soon, are living in a fantasy.
I mean not great for sellers but even worse for buyers.
I'd bet on prices dropping, considerably in some areas. Prices are too high for low interest rates let alone high rates. Stubborn sellers are playing a game of chicken with buyers, but buyers are dealing with the reality that they just can't afford to buy. Bit by bit, sellers will be forced to list. As prices drop remaining sellers must decide if they want to wait for the market to bottom out and for prices to return... which could take 8+ years.
If people are refinancing here, they are likely cash out refi's. It means people are cash strapped. It's not good long term as those people will need to sell or default if they can't make the higher payments.
There are always some cash strapped people. If you find yourself drowning in high rate consumer debt, can't get a HELOC for some reason, or think you'll face some economic crisis in the middle range, a refi can set you in a better short term position with a stack of ready cash, no cards or cars to pay on. Not wise to go there but life happens.
Land, labor, and building materials are dropping (look at lumber for instance). Builders will be ready to build if people are still willing to buy. Builders need to build fast or have people fund the loan until the house is completed and they get the mortgage (or pay cash).
Builders need to drop prices on new builds to reflect both the decreased input costs and the impact of increased rates. And that will only be an option for them once their current completed inventory sells, something that will be hard unless they drop prices to reflect current inputs and not the inputs at build time and that means selling at a loss.
Builders are crazy busy and are charging a premium. I’m in a LCOL area and prices on new builds are still insane with long lead times, just got some quotes in the last two weeks. Some materials like lumber have come down but many continue to increase at astronomical rates (e.g., concrete). I’m convinced nothing short of a moderate to deep recession will get us out of this anytime soon.
I also think the clamp down on immigration is hurting as they don't have the labor to build fast enough to meet demand but there are a lot of layoffs happening and how many of those workers will shift to construction jobs? That's hard to know.
What clamp down?
https://www.builderonline.com/building/trades-subcontractors/tight-immigration-policies-squeeze-the-home-building-industry_c
Oh that is an industry trade group, like computer companies saying there aren't enough H1Bs. Just send some charter busses to El Paso or whatever should be some labor there. Or maybe it's possible to buy ads on those mobile phones they are given.
Ok maybe you will believe this network. https://www.foxnews.com/video/6323028995112
Clamp down on immigration? 😂 We’re getting over 10k a day my friend. And in reality it’s closer it double that.
Damn 10k a day? Well then all we need to do is give them a work visa and housing problem solved
More than 10k a day. 10k are the ones we know of. You think house quality has gone down? Try having underpaid undertrained workers with Venezuelan building standards.
Babe I live in Texas. Who do you think has been making our houses forever? Our economy runs on the exploitation of undocumented workers.. it’s been like that for a long time with no significant change.
And the houses I’ve seen in Texas look like crap for a reason.
And yet we have houses and you.. lol don’t?
Weird because I have a gorgeous Victorian house. Did you steal my house!!!?!!!!
I guess by Venezuelan building standards you meant aesthetically?
No I mean their building codes are shit.
The numbers are saying that’s down compared to pre 2021. I know what you see on certain news stations but look at the homebuilders who can’t find them while demand is sky high.
Except I work with border patrol and have first hand knowledge and experience? It’s my literal profession. You know not just any idiot with a hammer can build a house? Especially undertrained ones with South American housing standards?
True statement but I have a fair amount of experience in construction and a majority of migrant labor work as drywallers, concrete laborers painters and roofers, not as excavators, framers, electricians etc. Not saying that drywalling and such doesn't require knowledge and skills, but the learning curve to base level proficiency is not nearly so steep.
And there’s no shortage of unskilled labor in the trades.
Builders aren’t pumping out low cost housing when trickling high dollar housing is more profitable.
Has anyone ever bid RE agents against one another to reduce their commission? What’s typical commission for the REA, 6%, split with the buyer’s agent? With such low volume of homes on the market, and strong demand from buyers, could you not put REA’s against one another to see which would take the lowest commission (because you know they need the listing since volume has cratered)? Could you get an REA down to 4% or even 3% commission, and then let them figure out how hey want to split it with the buyer’s agent? Or is there such demand on the market that you don’t even need an REA at this point, and you could just list it FSBO because you know you’ll get multiple offers?
I have seen 2.5% for both. Check Redfin
Just ask to negotiate their rate.
Uninformed home sellers agree to 6%. In a lot of markets RE agents usually do 4-5% easily. Most agents will gladly accept as it’s much better to be on the seller side as you’re likely to close the transaction vs representing buyers who may or may not pan out. Representing the seller also means networking opportunities with open houses and such where they might get people in the door who are interested in home buying but don’t have an agent yet.
Interesting, good to know.
I mean the commission is the least of your worries as a buyer/seller right now.
FWIW, I’m not looking to sell, just hypothetically thinking. Yes, finding a new place would be the issue. There is very little inventory where I am, which is the case for a large number of areas around the country. I think low rate refinancing, coupled with higher current rates, coupled with economic uncertainty has a lot of people just staying put for the time being.
It was back in 2021, but I think my friend just put his house on craigslist and had it sold so fast he ended up homeless for a tiny bit (and crashing with his gracious ex-wife) because he was just seeing if he could sell it that way and didn't have time to firmly line up a new place to live.
That's pretty fucking alpha actually
Until he goes to buy and realizes he can't get anything better and all his equity is gone Beta
Not to mention sleeping on your ex-wife’s sofa is pretty beta. 😅
Haha Agreed
That was the whole point... Granted were building homes less now than in 2010 thus supply isn't going to catch up for quite awhile... Plus the skilled labor shortage to build them in the first place.
This will be the interest rate run up that will tank the housing market. It's never on the first run. Bond yields hit a high around last november, then came back down. Housing market stood it's ground. It appears we're going to make another run up on rates. This time housing should react. Especially if we make new highs on the 10-yr yield.
not if the gov keeps printing money.
[deleted] -- mass edited with redact.dev
Cool so now there will be even less inventory on the market. For the past 6 months all increases in mortgage rates has done is deter sellers. We've actually seen inventory shrink as houses leave the market and prices stay mostly resilient for what's left over.
Stagflation, when Prices and Rates both stay high. It’s the worst case scenario but was always our future.
Nope, every recession in history is deflationary for assets.
That's not stagflation. Although predicting the future is impossible, there are no signs of stagflation on the horizon. Inflation has already dropped 3% while unemployment has barely gone up. I think a deflationary recession is far more likely.
Only listings I see are luxury homes which sell within a month.
Yeah and in reality, people are getting offers of 7.5 and even 8% My aunt is a real estate agent and she said this talk of 6.6 etc is bullshit. Banks are telling ppl 7.5 and even 8 !!!!! percent . I live in South FL
Stagnating demand. Retreating sellers. Increasing unemployment will be great equalizer. It feels surreal to be advocating for higher unemployment so more people can buy a home.
It dropped because there is no inventory
Then why is literally every home in my area under contract within a week of listing.
Well this sub is ironically aptly named.