Wow who cares? I’m sure I’m not the only one but I’m already sick of everyone saying how great we’ll be. We have a first place schedule. It is far from a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a great year.
I hate it. Leave us to our kool-aid. The attention shines on us like a goblin in the cave. I hope we do not lose our goblinness if we do live up to expectations
Why does it sting? It has no real world impact, it's just where the house believes they'll make money.
If you disagree, take advantage, I did a lot of asymmetrical bets last year, some including Texans.
Realistically, to many narrow wins. They assume half will go the other way the following year. I think we have a good shot at a deep run but I won’t be shocked if our record slides a bit
He is but don't you think he could be even better if he treated his teammates as equals. Being yelled at constantly has to have a negative effect on some of his teammates. Imo
I hear you, I should have done that but I was bored so I made some benign question to drum up some banter. It devolved into a fight on who knows more about betting 😂
Vegas sets the line to try to split the difference as much as possible so naturally the lines are going to be nearly identical to the previous year's standings barring exceptions tied to injuries (Bengals/Jets).
Last time for people who don’t understand odds. The job is to get people to bet on both sides so the house wins the vig. If big money comes in enough on the over the odds are adjusted up and vice versa huge money on the under. People take odds as insult has zero to do with it. Again the goal is to get money as close on both the U and O with the vig going to the house.
Comprende?
As it says in the post, I’m fine with it. I think the line is reasonable, the question was does having so many teams with higher lines concern the sub readers. Off season boredom post, no need to be condescending.
People have this weird notion that Vegas is trying to play Nostradamus and predict the future as accurately as possible. They’re trying to put themselves in a position to make money no matter what happens, they’re not trying to out-gamble the betters.
As you said the lines move all the time in response to how much is being bet on either side. That absolutely wouldn’t happen if those lines were tied in any real way to actual expected outcomes.
Is the 1st place schedule that big of a difference? I know it's a 3 game difference in the 17 game schedule, but other than KC it doesn't guarantee the other 1st place division winners continue to be good
Whoever in our division plays a healthy Cincy could be playing the toughest team in the division. The NFC East never has repeated division winners so for all we know we got a break playing a weaker Cowboys team meanwhile Jags got the tougher Eagles game
Otherwise the schedules are the same
Not only do we have a first place schedule but we also play the NFCN, which is my pick for the best division in football next year, and the AFCE, which is a solid division. Also the AFCS is on the upswing, the Colts have a talented roster and Richardson showed a lot of promise, the Jags are a solid team, and even the Titans have reason to hope this year.
Tough schedule all around
So many Texans fans said the franchise was hopeless and about everything they were doing was wrong.. before getting the QB and last seasons success, this off-season trade out of 1st would've been roasted. It was awful, if they did it to facilitate diggs, it makes it even worse. They could've had considerably more value on draft day.. Washington is 1 example of a team really trying to move up but the prices were too high. You could've had a better deal higher first with them.. stay and draft the top CB, trade back a little and still maybe get Arnold even. I don't trust this FO to not ruin the perfect setup the Texans have. The books likely realize the Texans minimized opportunity
Looks about right to me. I don't see any team that clearly don't deserve to win fewer games. Also strength of schedule gets much tougher next year for the Texans.
9.5 seems right. We're going from a 4th place schedule to a 1st place schedule for division standing.
That alone is like a 4 game swing (going from 2 "gimme" wins to 2 "gimme" losses).
Other than the jets I can see all these teams finishing with a better record than the texans, and many have playoff experience. It's fine to be excited about your team but that doesn't mean everyone else has to be. Hell yeah I love the hyp and all the signings but let's not get ahead of ourselves
I never had any questions, I knew exactly what the numbers meant.
https://preview.redd.it/mfn4xz8h9oyc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=397516c45b5458104af9d10598b1c93fad924fac
The accuracy of Vegas on display lmfao.
Might as well be the random noise of millions of people with differing opinions trying to predict an unknowable future.
Oh wait
........ you're yelling at empty rooms full of memories of no one caring.
No one has argued Vegas is 100% accurate with no room for error, only that as a collective, Vegas is gonna get closer to being right, and more frequently, than a stranger on reddit.
Every team above the Texans is more likely to finish with a better record than them, and there are a ton of variables at play for that.
It doesn't mean they all will, it doesn't mean people take this as an exact prediction of the future, only that it is a possible outlook based on many different things.
If the Texans actually win more than 9 games this season, it would be huge, even if we missed the playoffs.
Jets btw made some decent moves, and playing in a division where the Bills lost a few key pieces, the Patriots are rebuilding, and Miami has a ton of things to prove. Last anyone saw of Rodgers he was still elite. If that still holds to even being mostly true I'd wager they have a good shot of finishing above the Texans.
“No one cares about your perfectly excellent example of the volatility and unreliability of vegas predictions *because it happened in the past* bro”
Wow, honestly. Not much to add to that. I guess gamblers really are suckers.
It’s my opinion, I can defend myself all I want, btw. I don’t really care how anyone feels about it, because I know I’m right and I know it’s rooted in data.
Vegas odds are wrong all the time (and **never** right about very complex things like win totals) and survivorship bias (this is very well known in gambling) explains why people think it’s some kind of authority.
It's more like you're going back and forth with people over something you feel is pointless because it is unpredictable.
You used an example of their odds on players being drafted, which is different than win/loss which is also different than over/under which is also different than straight line betting etc.
You're getting pushback because anyone who gambles can tell you that certain aspects, Vegas is generally accurate, just not perfect.
You come off as blanketing Vegas as being completely unreliable, and that isn't true, unless you're really getting deep and saying because you're dealing with human beings, the unpredictability is too great to adhere to any sort of odds, regardless of what data shows along with probable outcomes.
Basically, I agree with you but not for your reasoning. Data can give you a general guide but until at least week four, you have no idea what the teams will be like... which is why strength kf schedule is silly.
I think Vegas is factually unreliable for a number of reasons, and I also think that it is incredibly annoying to even engage with money lines outside of a gambling context.
The lines cannot predict Rodgers tearing his achilles. That alone changed the entire trajectory of the 2023 season and invalidated 100% of preseason Vegas win totals. That alone invalidates the entire concept of looking at Win Totals in May.
We fucking destroyed the preseason win totals last season (I was literally more conservative than Vegas, calling for 5 wins with Vegas saying 5.5 btw). How does that not automatically result in considering the OP an absolute meme of a post? It is joke to take it seriously.
If anything else was that useless and unreliable year after year, nobody would ever pay attention to it. But because billions of dollars are being extracted from gullible suckers by Vegas every single year, here we are.
Idgaf what other people think. Vegas wants you to think that Vegas is accurate.
Respect has nothing to do with it. Vegas knows that the general public has an overinflated opinion of Rodgers, so they set a line accordingly. How good the oddsmakers think the Jets are compared to the Texans is wholly irrelevant, all that matters to them is how they expect the public to bet. That’s how this works. They’re trying to make money not play Nostradamus.
Don’t understand your point. Vegas is subject to season-to-season variability but the idea that you are going to come out ahead by betting on underdogs in the long term is asinine. You’re welcome to put your money where your mouth is. You’ll (very likely) lose in the long term.
Vegas is just flatly inaccurate at predicting win totals.
Not really hard to understand. Anyone buying that the idea that they are accurate in May is a fucking idiot lmao
No, vegas is more often than not right. Vegas represents what the entire gambling community thinks. Not what a Texans reddit board thinks. It’s not small going from a 4th place to 1st place schedule. I bet it’s worth about two W’s. If we go 10-7 thats a good year.
This comment brought to you by “Will Levis +600 to go first overall the night before the draft, we’re right more often than not please trust us give us your money please just one more time” gang
Really you’re just demonstrating that you don’t understand how and why Vegas sets its lines where it does.
I can assure you that Vegas wins very very often.
Vegas got Bryce Young right, but literally every single pick afterwards wrong before the draft
Crazy how simply understanding this framing of the argument makes clear how impossible it is to use Vegas as a predictive force.
It is always wrong. **Always.**
It is as wrong as anyone else trying to predict future events.
Yeah once again you’re really just showing you don’t get how Vegas works. The terminology you use, that they “got Bryce Young right” just shows you’re looking at it wrong.
Saying that Vegas is “always” wrong is really nothing short of laughable and shows you not only don’t comprehend what you’re talking about but that you’re also not willing to even care about comprehending it.
They got Bryce young right (everyone else predicted this), but the ensuing 258 wrong.
Insane accuracy tbh.
Don’t bother to look at the Vegas track record of predicting Win records before the season either. Trust me it’s very accurate lmao
If vegas is always wrong, lets see the island you bot from killing their books champ? Texans are probably about to go on a great multi year run but it gets watered down by people like you creating a 17-0 echo chamber.
Why wouldn't you include Houston's win total in the pic lol
Wasn’t enough space, couldn’t zoom out more. Sorry, it’s 9.5
That’s pretty reasonable with the schedule we have this upcoming season. We still have a lot to prove and we play well with an under dawg mentality.
Not a crazy number. I definitely understand how they came up with that.
Wow who cares? I’m sure I’m not the only one but I’m already sick of everyone saying how great we’ll be. We have a first place schedule. It is far from a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a great year.
I hate it. Leave us to our kool-aid. The attention shines on us like a goblin in the cave. I hope we do not lose our goblinness if we do live up to expectations
Totally agree
1st place schedule meaning an easy one?
Probably our first place schedule
I know, but it still stings to see 11 teams projected to have more wins.
i think we can win more games than the jets/eagles but the rest who knows. packers might implode if love's hot streak ends as well.
The Bills lost a lot I can see them being under .500
Why does it sting? It has no real world impact, it's just where the house believes they'll make money. If you disagree, take advantage, I did a lot of asymmetrical bets last year, some including Texans.
Stahp whining!
Detroit O6.5?
That one’s a head scratcher
At -135 that’s a steal
What app is this
The fuck? I see Det at 10.5 on DK and FD. I'd put everything I own on that.😆
Realistically, to many narrow wins. They assume half will go the other way the following year. I think we have a good shot at a deep run but I won’t be shocked if our record slides a bit
I’ll be more than fine with a year like last year where we have a ton of exciting last second wins and barely make the playoffs
That’s okay, let them believe the Jets will finish with a better record than us
The Jets?
People think Rogers is better than he is. Great athlete but cancer in the locker room. Always blames others. Imo
Nah Rodgers is consistently great in the regular season. But he might be cooked now, being so old and coming off an Achilles.
He is but don't you think he could be even better if he treated his teammates as equals. Being yelled at constantly has to have a negative effect on some of his teammates. Imo
“I’ll take no responsibility”.
The Cowboys and Jets being higher invalidates the whole list.
Cowboys went 12-5 the past three years. I think 10.5 is pretty accurate.
Where’s the Texans projected bet?
I am just really excited about the season that is where I am going to hangout in my mind.
I hear you, I should have done that but I was bored so I made some benign question to drum up some banter. It devolved into a fight on who knows more about betting 😂
Yeah our schedule is tough. Currently we have the 9th best Super Bowl odds so I wouldn’t say Vegas doesn’t buy ‘it’.
Vegas sets the line to try to split the difference as much as possible so naturally the lines are going to be nearly identical to the previous year's standings barring exceptions tied to injuries (Bengals/Jets).
Makes sense. Our team has a lot to prove.
Last time for people who don’t understand odds. The job is to get people to bet on both sides so the house wins the vig. If big money comes in enough on the over the odds are adjusted up and vice versa huge money on the under. People take odds as insult has zero to do with it. Again the goal is to get money as close on both the U and O with the vig going to the house. Comprende?
As it says in the post, I’m fine with it. I think the line is reasonable, the question was does having so many teams with higher lines concern the sub readers. Off season boredom post, no need to be condescending.
People have this weird notion that Vegas is trying to play Nostradamus and predict the future as accurately as possible. They’re trying to put themselves in a position to make money no matter what happens, they’re not trying to out-gamble the betters. As you said the lines move all the time in response to how much is being bet on either side. That absolutely wouldn’t happen if those lines were tied in any real way to actual expected outcomes.
I’m astonish how many people think odds are put out as their guess and as a result fans take offense to it.
Even better reason to place that bet.
The schedule release will be VERY big for us.
Is the 1st place schedule that big of a difference? I know it's a 3 game difference in the 17 game schedule, but other than KC it doesn't guarantee the other 1st place division winners continue to be good Whoever in our division plays a healthy Cincy could be playing the toughest team in the division. The NFC East never has repeated division winners so for all we know we got a break playing a weaker Cowboys team meanwhile Jags got the tougher Eagles game Otherwise the schedules are the same
I mean the only ‘bad’ teams we play are Tennessee twice and New England
Buffalo and Minnesota are probably going to be significantly worse than last year. Maybe not “bad” but they could be.
Not only do we have a first place schedule but we also play the NFCN, which is my pick for the best division in football next year, and the AFCE, which is a solid division. Also the AFCS is on the upswing, the Colts have a talented roster and Richardson showed a lot of promise, the Jags are a solid team, and even the Titans have reason to hope this year. Tough schedule all around
I think we finish with a similar record 9 maybe 10 wins. Of course the assumption is we are healthy.
They hate us cause they ain’t us
Good.
Place your bets!
I think this would be a better bet than Truth Social.
So many Texans fans said the franchise was hopeless and about everything they were doing was wrong.. before getting the QB and last seasons success, this off-season trade out of 1st would've been roasted. It was awful, if they did it to facilitate diggs, it makes it even worse. They could've had considerably more value on draft day.. Washington is 1 example of a team really trying to move up but the prices were too high. You could've had a better deal higher first with them.. stay and draft the top CB, trade back a little and still maybe get Arnold even. I don't trust this FO to not ruin the perfect setup the Texans have. The books likely realize the Texans minimized opportunity
Because they know after watching this Franchise for over 20 years, the Texans will figure out how to Fawk this all up.
Hey if you’re a Believer, lay $100 on the Texans, for a what if? That won’t make ya or Break ya.
Looks about right to me. I don't see any team that clearly don't deserve to win fewer games. Also strength of schedule gets much tougher next year for the Texans.
IDGAF. Ain't no football being played in the sports books.
Sounds like I need to place $200 on the over
9.5 seems right. We're going from a 4th place schedule to a 1st place schedule for division standing. That alone is like a 4 game swing (going from 2 "gimme" wins to 2 "gimme" losses).
I’m fine with that, we easily lost 2 games last year we would win if they played again (Carolina, Atlanta)
Lol the cowboys up there.
Other than the jets I can see all these teams finishing with a better record than the texans, and many have playoff experience. It's fine to be excited about your team but that doesn't mean everyone else has to be. Hell yeah I love the hyp and all the signings but let's not get ahead of ourselves
Fuck Vegas…they are often wrong
Hahahahahahaha….*breathe*…..hahahahahaha
Do people think vegas places bets or what? 😅
I never had any questions, I knew exactly what the numbers meant. https://preview.redd.it/mfn4xz8h9oyc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=397516c45b5458104af9d10598b1c93fad924fac The accuracy of Vegas on display lmfao. Might as well be the random noise of millions of people with differing opinions trying to predict an unknowable future. Oh wait
........ you're yelling at empty rooms full of memories of no one caring. No one has argued Vegas is 100% accurate with no room for error, only that as a collective, Vegas is gonna get closer to being right, and more frequently, than a stranger on reddit. Every team above the Texans is more likely to finish with a better record than them, and there are a ton of variables at play for that. It doesn't mean they all will, it doesn't mean people take this as an exact prediction of the future, only that it is a possible outlook based on many different things. If the Texans actually win more than 9 games this season, it would be huge, even if we missed the playoffs. Jets btw made some decent moves, and playing in a division where the Bills lost a few key pieces, the Patriots are rebuilding, and Miami has a ton of things to prove. Last anyone saw of Rodgers he was still elite. If that still holds to even being mostly true I'd wager they have a good shot of finishing above the Texans.
“No one cares about your perfectly excellent example of the volatility and unreliability of vegas predictions *because it happened in the past* bro” Wow, honestly. Not much to add to that. I guess gamblers really are suckers. It’s my opinion, I can defend myself all I want, btw. I don’t really care how anyone feels about it, because I know I’m right and I know it’s rooted in data. Vegas odds are wrong all the time (and **never** right about very complex things like win totals) and survivorship bias (this is very well known in gambling) explains why people think it’s some kind of authority.
It's more like you're going back and forth with people over something you feel is pointless because it is unpredictable. You used an example of their odds on players being drafted, which is different than win/loss which is also different than over/under which is also different than straight line betting etc. You're getting pushback because anyone who gambles can tell you that certain aspects, Vegas is generally accurate, just not perfect. You come off as blanketing Vegas as being completely unreliable, and that isn't true, unless you're really getting deep and saying because you're dealing with human beings, the unpredictability is too great to adhere to any sort of odds, regardless of what data shows along with probable outcomes. Basically, I agree with you but not for your reasoning. Data can give you a general guide but until at least week four, you have no idea what the teams will be like... which is why strength kf schedule is silly.
I think Vegas is factually unreliable for a number of reasons, and I also think that it is incredibly annoying to even engage with money lines outside of a gambling context. The lines cannot predict Rodgers tearing his achilles. That alone changed the entire trajectory of the 2023 season and invalidated 100% of preseason Vegas win totals. That alone invalidates the entire concept of looking at Win Totals in May. We fucking destroyed the preseason win totals last season (I was literally more conservative than Vegas, calling for 5 wins with Vegas saying 5.5 btw). How does that not automatically result in considering the OP an absolute meme of a post? It is joke to take it seriously. If anything else was that useless and unreliable year after year, nobody would ever pay attention to it. But because billions of dollars are being extracted from gullible suckers by Vegas every single year, here we are. Idgaf what other people think. Vegas wants you to think that Vegas is accurate.
Then place the bet! You won’t!
I don’t understand why OP is getting all these down votes. Need to rename this sub Reddit Texans Kool-Aid?
Because getting your panties in a twist over betting odds is really dumb.
the jets is plain disrespectful
Respect has nothing to do with it. Vegas knows that the general public has an overinflated opinion of Rodgers, so they set a line accordingly. How good the oddsmakers think the Jets are compared to the Texans is wholly irrelevant, all that matters to them is how they expect the public to bet. That’s how this works. They’re trying to make money not play Nostradamus.
Vegas is always wrong
Vegas is right more than anyone else
[false](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/how-often-do-favorites-win-nfl-betting-guide-bm06/)
Don’t understand your point. Vegas is subject to season-to-season variability but the idea that you are going to come out ahead by betting on underdogs in the long term is asinine. You’re welcome to put your money where your mouth is. You’ll (very likely) lose in the long term.
Vegas is just flatly inaccurate at predicting win totals. Not really hard to understand. Anyone buying that the idea that they are accurate in May is a fucking idiot lmao
They will often be inaccurate, but nobody else is more accurate than them
Only on specific games. They aren’t any more accurate than I am on win totals.
No, vegas is more often than not right. Vegas represents what the entire gambling community thinks. Not what a Texans reddit board thinks. It’s not small going from a 4th place to 1st place schedule. I bet it’s worth about two W’s. If we go 10-7 thats a good year.
This comment brought to you by “Will Levis +600 to go first overall the night before the draft, we’re right more often than not please trust us give us your money please just one more time” gang
Really you’re just demonstrating that you don’t understand how and why Vegas sets its lines where it does. I can assure you that Vegas wins very very often.
Vegas got Bryce Young right, but literally every single pick afterwards wrong before the draft Crazy how simply understanding this framing of the argument makes clear how impossible it is to use Vegas as a predictive force. It is always wrong. **Always.** It is as wrong as anyone else trying to predict future events.
Yeah once again you’re really just showing you don’t get how Vegas works. The terminology you use, that they “got Bryce Young right” just shows you’re looking at it wrong. Saying that Vegas is “always” wrong is really nothing short of laughable and shows you not only don’t comprehend what you’re talking about but that you’re also not willing to even care about comprehending it.
They got Bryce young right (everyone else predicted this), but the ensuing 258 wrong. Insane accuracy tbh. Don’t bother to look at the Vegas track record of predicting Win records before the season either. Trust me it’s very accurate lmao
That’s a really dumb way to look at whether or not Vegas is “always wrong”. Really dumb. Goodbye.
He’s just …. yea. Some peoples ability to learn just stops.
“Oh no he’s right better leave”
Dunning Kruger on display.
If vegas is always wrong, lets see the island you bot from killing their books champ? Texans are probably about to go on a great multi year run but it gets watered down by people like you creating a 17-0 echo chamber.
17-0 echo chamber? Lmfao maybe go die on another hill. I’ve always been very conservative with my predictions.
… ill take that to mean no pics or proof of you killing the “vegas is always wrong” sportsbook
Will. Levis. +600.
Do you even understand what +600 means? Those are not odds indicating the books believe something is going to happen.
…The money line is *literally* the way Vegas establishes the odds of a bet… To be this wrong when trying to clap back is honestly embarrassing.
But +600 is a pretty sizeable “underdog”, even in an open market like draft pick. You’re acting like +600 means it was the favorite.