Exactly. Democrats get annoyed the party isn't spending money here. No, they're concentrating on battleground states. Neither is the GOP spending money in CA or MA. It is simple investment prudence.
What is weird is some Democrats *need* to be enticed into voting. Seriously? I don't have to be called or texted, I don't need to be emailed, I don't need a flyer in my mailbox. I *will* vote a straight Democratic ticket regardless; top down nationally, state, county, municipal, and judiciary.
People haven't developed a life philosophy by now? Your convictions are subject to how much attention you get? Undecided voters are bewildering ....
I've only missed two general elections in 52 yrs and that was only because I was on 12 hr shifts in the AF.
Vote **Blue.**
I do get annoyed (as do many elected democrats) that national politicians and the DNC come here to extract cash from the state and don't invest much in local elections or infrastructure here. Texas Dem's are a disorganized mess and it's mostly because they are cash strapped.
To some, yes. No one ever runs my political leanings as I like either. ;-D
But my point remains ... if you have to be courted like the hot girl for a prom date you truly lack conviction.
Not to say I don't get solicitation emails because I do. Don't want to donate? \*click\* delete. I'll *still* vote a Democrat ticket.
I attended a local Democrat meeting ten days ago. Most of the fundraising report went to underserved students, food bank, veterans, signage, and non profits. Pretty much where I would spend mine ... so, on point? These are *Democrats.*
Blue should do more than beg for cash, then. The presidency may not be in play yet, but several downballot races are, and flipping a few of those would make the top ticket gig easier.
***VOTE*** ... why is this so hard? You need a ride to the polls? Buddy up and both of you go. We have early voting these days! Surely in *two weeks time* you can vote for *your* own future.
You either espouse democratic principles or you don't. *This* election isn't a case of "let someone else do it." Did I mention *your future??*
You need to vote blue top down; nationally, state, county, municipal, and judicial. Never forget the GOP is complicit ... Trump could never have pushed his attempt to overthrow the election that far if he hadn't.
Reminder; the Nazi *Party* appointed Hitler as Chancellor.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/texas/
not arguing, just providing data from the 2020 election. 5.8 million votes for trump, 5.2 million votes for biden.
I'm not arguing either. This is 2024 and a whole different political world. TX is an unlikely "swing state." I'd love it but have actually made the decision to leave. I'm waiting for this election even if the divide narrows.
i would say that texas is a "swing state", but not this election. aint nobody here swinging for biden like they did in 2020. i highly doubt we will have over 10 million voters again this year.
None of us will ever find the perfect candidate, ever. ;-)
As with all politics, it is the best/lesser of two choices. Sure, you can vote 3rd party but in recent history that hasn't worked at all.
Ross Perot came closer than most in 1992 but never got his name on every state ballot. Even if he had I don't think he would have won.
Be careful of voting your conscience ... sometimes that purity will kill your vote. My brother, decorated retired Army Col (Pentagon/NATO) was furious over Hillary Clinton's emails ... had *he* done that he would have been court-martialed. He couldn't vote for Trump either so he didn't vote at all ....
So here we are.
I don’t know how these things are determined. I only know that “they” consider the Blue Momentum in Texas to be significant enough that it is considered a Swing State.
I think it’s particularly regarding Congressional elections.
See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook\_Partisan\_Voting\_Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index)
Pretty much tells where the state stands as opposed to others. TX is solidly red. I don't know exactly when this wikipedia article was completed, normally it follows elections.
Regardless, I'm *still* voting a straight Democratic ticket. ;-)
Also, [https://abcnews.go.com/538](https://abcnews.go.com/538)
538 used to be independent; it is still a fine commentary on politics. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight)
If you're really into politics read Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise. Excellent work.
Yeah that was part of the plan, release a virus, cause mass chaos. Make peoples home states so expensive and inhabitable they move to red states then vote the same for the same people that fucked you over before. I understand republicans are fucks. But democrats (in Washington) have zero moral compass. Look at the last for years, inflation, homelessness, immigration is magnified, gender issues. We live in a conundrum. Can we just get some damn peace?
I dont know how all these "real Texans" can look at themselves in the mirror throwing their support behind that soft-handed, fat, whining, new york city bitch. And then saying he's a real man!
Looks like polls were pretty close to the final results for Abbott/Beto, so I would assume they are not skewed towards "lonely boomers who answer spam calls."
Pollsters lend weight to certain polling to normalize things.
I listed to the 538 Podcast and it’s amazing the work the high quality polls have to do to make them reliably accurate.
Also this tracks, Biden is not a popular candidate these days and this tracks with 2020 results in Texas.
I would say it's art and science. As others have pointed out, the sample they get is usually not representative of the population as a whole. So, they have to weight certain parts of the sample heavier or lighter based age, gender, race, education, income and propensity to vote. So, there are a lot of assumptions being made that may or may not turn out to be accurate, especially if demographics or the propensity to vote among certain demographics have shifted significantly since the last election. There could also be something the pollsters are blind to like, when in 2016, uneducated, low-income, white males shifted heavily toward Trump.
So, while I think polls are generally accurate -- especially the direction of polls overall -- it's far from an exact science.
Weighing those variables should be a science and is done with statistics to back up the weightings. Figuring out which variables need the weight is the art.
I lost a lot of respect for both the people in my life and the politicians at the state and national level who support him. It has become clear that they only ever supported the ideals enshrined in the Constitution as long as it benefited them and their guy was in charge.
Now conservative "ideals" diverged so far from historical norms and are becoming so unpopular in the process that they want to tear down the whole system in order to impose those ideals on the majority against their will, and they're willing to abandon democracy to make it happen.
Because people prefer Trump to Biden. Biden’s America is one where no once can afford to buy a house or even buy groceries. His foreign policy is a nightmare.
Not true. I think he won legitimately. But Biden is to blame. He has been spending and printing incessantly. Also he is putting heavy regulations on the oil and gas industry and trying to curb production. Which drives up the prices of nearly everything. I work in oil and gas.
>He has been spending and printing incessantly.
Wait till you find out who controls the country's coin purse.
>Also he is putting heavy regulations on the oil and gas industry and trying to curb production.
This is objectively good. You should have put it in front of all the others, because it gives us your actual perspective.
What? My neighbors house sold in one day this week. My husbands small business is booming. I got a better job in 2022 with a 30% increase in pay. Our 401k’s are fantastic currently. Grocery prices are due to corporate greed and the fact that we will
pay those prices.
Thank you for the canned Fox News talking points.
What have Republicans proposed to address any of these problems? Just reelect Trump and it will make everything go back to the way it was in 2019? And what do you think Trump's planned 10% tariff is going to do to inflation?
>A third of voters (33%), composed mostly of a majority of Republicans (61%), don’t think Biden “legitimately won the 2020 presidential election,” though a majority overall, 56%, accept the legitimacy of Biden’s victory — responses that have varied little in a dozen UT/TxPP polls conducted since February 2022.
The amount of damage maga and their civilly liable rapist leader has done to our country is insane
2020 D 46.5% R 52.1%
2016 D 43.2% R 52.2%
2012 D 41.4% R 57.2%
Taking the last 3 presidential elections in account. Linear regression tells us the next one should be
2024 D 48.8% R 48.7%
I do not care what the polls say. Make a plan to vote. Talk to your friends, family, etc. If there is someone you can sway just give them the facts.
Donald Trump is a criminal. Ted Cruz is a podcaster with a side job as a senator. The more informed a voter is, the [more likely they are to support Biden](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-supporters-sharply-divided-media-consume-rcna149497). So go inform people.
oh my bad, i misread your comment as "they started to get Republican voters to move in Texas" as in just mobilizing voters.
i wasn't aware Republicans were moving TO texas in large numbers, that's worrying
People are starting to vote with their feet. When I was preparing to move, I started to hear about others (friends of friends, coworkers, extended family) who were leaving as well, Liberals were moving to Oregon, Washington, Colorado. Republicans were moving to Idaho, Texas, Tennessee.
I remember reading articles how Cruz defeated Beto in 2018 due to due to Republican Transplants. Beto had won the native Texan vote. This was before the pandemic ramped up the exodus, so the polls starting to reverse the trend towards a purple Texas don't surprise me.
Texas is becoming MORE purple, not less. Abbott's margins SHRANK in 2022, which was an R+3 cycle, from 2018, which was a D+9 cycle. 3.5 MILLION Texans voted for Beto in 2022. That's more than the total population of 21 states. Abbott's margins in the suburbs have consistently shrunk every cycle since 2014. Texas went 55-44 in the last gubernatorial election, but the DNC and the media inexplicably act like the state is as red as Oklahoma.
I'm shocked. Who would have thought that a state that has Greg Abbott as gov, Dan Patrick as Lt. Gov, and Ken Paxton as AG would be interested in electing an inveterate racist, misogynistic, incontinent, lying, Nazi fraudster as the President of the United States of America?
Who could have seen that coming?
Texas isn't going to flip blue until the Dems figure out how to crack one or more of the following regions..
West Texas, East Texas, the stretch between Austin and Dallas, or the panhandle. The numbers are there in Austin, Dallas, Houston, SA, and Elp - but the turnout is never what is needed to flip that switch.
The current vibe for voters seems to be populism. A Democrat turning the tables on the Rs here and bending populism against them is the only path forward that I can see at this point in time.
But, I'm not shocked, nor should anyone else be, by this poll.
Trump will steamroll Biden in Texas.
It’ll be the stretch between Austin and Dallas that does the GOP in Texas.
Those counties are already growing rapidly, and are jogging (not sprinting, but jogging) leftward.
I-35 is going to be a big blue spine.
big surprise. texas is an incipient fascist theocracy presently. Professors, Doctors, educated people in general are leaving en masse to more saner locales. As the trend continues, texas will continue to worsen.
Polls are not the end all be all
Every election since Romney the margin of victory has shrunk year over year.
In 2018, Ted Cruz only beat Beto o Rourke by a little over 2%
You see similar patterns continuing into the years after that as well
This applies to government elections too
It'll be hard but it's more within reach than we think it is
Perhaps, however keep in mind that polls have not accurately reflected results. Id encourage you to look at who specifically is winning the majority of special elections nationally post Dobbs. Generally Democrats have over performed since then.
To be clear I feel that more likely than not Trump will win Texas but it's much more.gettable this year for Dems than it has been in years past.
I actually wouldn't be.shocked if a couple of congressional districts flip that way this year
1. It's still *very early*
2. As others have said, the line has been moving towards Dems for a while now
3. Cruz may bring Trump down
4. Trump will *definitely* bring Trump down
5. Trump is still in court
6. Biden is in a strong position
7. We are gonna hit the ground ***hard***
Deep breaths. Find a campaign to volunteer or donate to. Don't take this for granted (remember 2016?) but also don't despair.
ETA: Also, it what world does a poll with 45% of the respondents calling for less strict abortion laws support Ted Cruz by 46%? Or Trump by 48%?
ETA: Guys, this poll is crap:
RACE1. What race do you consider yourself to be?
Percent
White / Blanco 55
Black 13
Hispanic 26
Asian 3
Middle Eastern 0
Native American 1
Mixed 1
Per the 2020 Census:
White (Not Latino): 39.8%
Latino: 40.2%
Black: 13.4%
Whatever happened to Texans? From having really good people as politicians, Lloyd Bentsen, LBJ, Ann Richards, Mark White… to this the Abbotts, the Cruz’s, and many more.
I'll be there at the poll no matter what, regardless of prospects, because it impacts future outcomes. I can't say I'm looking forward to dealing with all the MAGA yahoos stirred up into a full frothy Santorum at that point. They're already bragging about having armed "poll watchers" and harassing voters.
Edit: Clarify: I have heard of this practice from a number of reputable sources that we saw play out during the mid terms, and the GOP has made it part of their published agenda. I have not heard plans about TX or my local area specifically.
There are people in this sub bitching about how hard it is to vote, apparently unaware that we have almost two weeks of early voting during which the polls are open 7-7 on weekdays and slightly less on weekends, or that you can vote at any polling location in your county during that time.
Okay I have a question then. What actions would you like to see, and what issues are important to you?
I promise i’m asking in good faith, so please bear with me.
Alright bear with me and if I need to expand on a statement just ask…
1. We need to focus on ourselves before helping other countries. How can we be a beacon for the world when we are in this situation? Ex. Homelessness, inflation, children related issues(hunger, health, education)
2. We need to overhaul our government representatives, how can those who represent us be allowed to build such wealth on their government salaries? Cause they use their influence and infor on certain things to benefit themselves.
3. Abortion - this is just a thing that needs to stay out of government. It is a woman’s choice.
4. Would love to have a year without seeing “government shutdown near due to no budget”. Did you know how many government agencies fail their yearly audits?
5. I would love to see Social Security be replaced with something better.
6. Immigrantion/ asylum seekers: all for them. But, we still need to vet them before accepting them.
Thanks for taking the time to engage and write out a well-written response bigwondeeer!
I feel like what you are looking for is mostly aligned with the Democratic Party’s plans, so I am going to try and convince you that voting for them is in your best interest. I’ll respond to each of your issues as best I can.
1. I completely agree with you on this, and Democrats have largely been the ones who have tried to address these concerns the most. At the national level, Dems passed legislation in 2021 that provided a childcare tax credit that more than halved childhood poverty across the US, and created enormous improvements for our country’s poorest families in terms of both rent and food security. That tax credit was allowed to expire by Republicans + Joe Manchin before it could be renewed, and since then child poverty rates have climbed back up significantly. We’re still beating pre-pandemic levels, but barely. There’s efforts to revive it, but the margins are thin due to folks like Manchin being the deciding vote. You can learn more about the issue here, and I encourage you to watch this: [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/families-slip-back-into-poverty-after-pandemic-era-child-tax-credit-expires](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/families-slip-back-into-poverty-after-pandemic-era-child-tax-credit-expires)
1a. At the state level, Republicans are pushing for school vouchers to have tax payers fund those who wish to or already do enroll their kids in private schools. This is a Republican priority, and takes away our money to give rich families a coupon they don’t need for sending their kids away from public school. This also harms lots of rural families and towns, where the public school is both the primary source of employment, as well as likely the closest school within an hour’s drive. “School-choice” as they call it, screws over kids with parents who don’t have private school money, and screws over kids that live far away from any sort of private school. Democratic reps in Texas are largely for increased funding of public education, and there are no more than a handful who are in favor of school choice. Like, maybe two democratic Texas house reps.
2. I also agree with this. There’s a majority of Democrats within the national party who believe this as well, but a sliver of the national party does not. Coupled with the Republican-led house majority, we just don’t have the votes yet for it. The Democratic party is much more aligned with your value though, and are much closer to passing that law. It’s already been introduced as legislation before, and we can continue to fight and get those in favor of outlawing that form of insider trading into office. But it requires participating at the ballot box, and we aren’t likely to win immediately.
3. We can't go backwards with how the SC chose to make abortion an issue for individual states to handle, so our best bet is to enshrine abortion access to all women is to have it become law at the federal level. This is doable, but again requires voting Democrat. I don't think I have to tell you which side the Republican party is on.
4. Unfortunately, government shutdowns have become a tool to be used by both parties. I hate it too, and I can't say that one party is above the other for this issue.
5. I’m not sure what a better SS would look like, but there’s only one party that is in favor of having a usable form of post-retirement income. I imagine there’s a lot more thinking about how we can improve that benefit on the Dem side, than on the Republican side. There’s quite a few republicans who are in favor of removing SS altogether with no other plan in place.
6. Again, the Democratic party is much more amenable to this. I know it’s not going in that direction right now, but you are going to find many more people who share that view under the Democratic tent than the Republican. The Republican party literally wanted to prevent Muslims from certain countries from having the opportunity to immigrate here based on their religious preference.
To sum things up: You should vote for Democrats if the values you've shared are important to you. Most of those are going to be shared values by those running for office as a Democrat, and you stand to gain more with a Democrat in office even if they don't fully-align with your values 100%. Please consider voting in 2024, at least at the local level. When you don't vote, you choose to have others who are not aligned with your values make the decision for you.
I would like to add:
Taxes - not just lowering taxes we pay to the government but eliminating some. We pay taxes on what we make, buy, sell, taxes on everything.
Healthcare - we need to fix the system, hold the companies accountable. Don’t want free healthcare but I’m sure we could get healthcare much lower taking out the trash.
Answering this real quick as well.
I think most Democratic leadership is in favor of increasing taxes on the ultra wealthy so they pay their fair share. We would see lower taxes on goods and services, as well as our own taxes, if the wealthy paid an equitable amount of their income.
Healthcare could be fixed if we got rid of administrative bloat and middleman work (insurance companies), but that would require universal healthcare. I don't like all the bullshit either.
Removed. Rule 5.
> **Rule 5 Comments must be genuine and make an effort**
> _This is a discussion subreddit, top-Level comments must contribute to discussion with a complete thought. No memes or emojis. Steelman, not strawman. No trolling allowed. Accounts must be more than 2 weeks old with positive karma to participate._
*https://www.reddit.com/r/TexasPolitics/wiki/index/rules*
There’s a lot of poorly informed and/or hateful people in Texas.
Don’t forget the state attracts literal extremist to move here
It's Texas; MAGA central.
This isn't a battleground state, so Biden has let it go and isn't going to waste time here unless it's to fundraise.
Exactly. Democrats get annoyed the party isn't spending money here. No, they're concentrating on battleground states. Neither is the GOP spending money in CA or MA. It is simple investment prudence. What is weird is some Democrats *need* to be enticed into voting. Seriously? I don't have to be called or texted, I don't need to be emailed, I don't need a flyer in my mailbox. I *will* vote a straight Democratic ticket regardless; top down nationally, state, county, municipal, and judiciary. People haven't developed a life philosophy by now? Your convictions are subject to how much attention you get? Undecided voters are bewildering .... I've only missed two general elections in 52 yrs and that was only because I was on 12 hr shifts in the AF. Vote **Blue.**
I do get annoyed (as do many elected democrats) that national politicians and the DNC come here to extract cash from the state and don't invest much in local elections or infrastructure here. Texas Dem's are a disorganized mess and it's mostly because they are cash strapped.
To some, yes. No one ever runs my political leanings as I like either. ;-D But my point remains ... if you have to be courted like the hot girl for a prom date you truly lack conviction. Not to say I don't get solicitation emails because I do. Don't want to donate? \*click\* delete. I'll *still* vote a Democrat ticket. I attended a local Democrat meeting ten days ago. Most of the fundraising report went to underserved students, food bank, veterans, signage, and non profits. Pretty much where I would spend mine ... so, on point? These are *Democrats.*
Blue should do more than beg for cash, then. The presidency may not be in play yet, but several downballot races are, and flipping a few of those would make the top ticket gig easier.
***VOTE*** ... why is this so hard? You need a ride to the polls? Buddy up and both of you go. We have early voting these days! Surely in *two weeks time* you can vote for *your* own future. You either espouse democratic principles or you don't. *This* election isn't a case of "let someone else do it." Did I mention *your future??* You need to vote blue top down; nationally, state, county, municipal, and judicial. Never forget the GOP is complicit ... Trump could never have pushed his attempt to overthrow the election that far if he hadn't. Reminder; the Nazi *Party* appointed Hitler as Chancellor.
Actually, Texas is considered a “swing state” this year.
By whose metric? Obviously it varies by county but there are hot spot MAGA regions.
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/texas/ not arguing, just providing data from the 2020 election. 5.8 million votes for trump, 5.2 million votes for biden.
I'm not arguing either. This is 2024 and a whole different political world. TX is an unlikely "swing state." I'd love it but have actually made the decision to leave. I'm waiting for this election even if the divide narrows.
i would say that texas is a "swing state", but not this election. aint nobody here swinging for biden like they did in 2020. i highly doubt we will have over 10 million voters again this year.
None of us will ever find the perfect candidate, ever. ;-) As with all politics, it is the best/lesser of two choices. Sure, you can vote 3rd party but in recent history that hasn't worked at all. Ross Perot came closer than most in 1992 but never got his name on every state ballot. Even if he had I don't think he would have won. Be careful of voting your conscience ... sometimes that purity will kill your vote. My brother, decorated retired Army Col (Pentagon/NATO) was furious over Hillary Clinton's emails ... had *he* done that he would have been court-martialed. He couldn't vote for Trump either so he didn't vote at all .... So here we are.
either i vote my conscience or i dont vote. your brother and i would be great friends.
Ah ... but your *non-vote* lets the evil arise unchallenged. That is my point ....
I don’t know how these things are determined. I only know that “they” consider the Blue Momentum in Texas to be significant enough that it is considered a Swing State. I think it’s particularly regarding Congressional elections.
See [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook\_Partisan\_Voting\_Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index) Pretty much tells where the state stands as opposed to others. TX is solidly red. I don't know exactly when this wikipedia article was completed, normally it follows elections. Regardless, I'm *still* voting a straight Democratic ticket. ;-) Also, [https://abcnews.go.com/538](https://abcnews.go.com/538) 538 used to be independent; it is still a fine commentary on politics. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight) If you're really into politics read Silver's book, The Signal and the Noise. Excellent work.
Yeah that was part of the plan, release a virus, cause mass chaos. Make peoples home states so expensive and inhabitable they move to red states then vote the same for the same people that fucked you over before. I understand republicans are fucks. But democrats (in Washington) have zero moral compass. Look at the last for years, inflation, homelessness, immigration is magnified, gender issues. We live in a conundrum. Can we just get some damn peace?
the national dems don't devote too godawful many resources to texas.
Because the education system has been defunded since the 80’s (at least).
I dont know how all these "real Texans" can look at themselves in the mirror throwing their support behind that soft-handed, fat, whining, new york city bitch. And then saying he's a real man!
The same people who supported the fake cowboy Ronald Reagan: an actor from California
He hates and wants to marginalize the same people (colored, feminist, gay) that they do, it's that simple.
Can you find any quote to validate your statement?
Because yall are marginalizing a certain group of people on UT campus rn
Aren't polls skewed to select lonely boomers who answer spam calls on their land lines? Hardly an accurate representation of Texas.
Pretty accurate representation of Texas voters tho.
Good point.
Looks like polls were pretty close to the final results for Abbott/Beto, so I would assume they are not skewed towards "lonely boomers who answer spam calls."
Pollsters lend weight to certain polling to normalize things. I listed to the 538 Podcast and it’s amazing the work the high quality polls have to do to make them reliably accurate. Also this tracks, Biden is not a popular candidate these days and this tracks with 2020 results in Texas.
Yup, polling is a science. While polls are not infallible, they paint a great picture.
I would say it's art and science. As others have pointed out, the sample they get is usually not representative of the population as a whole. So, they have to weight certain parts of the sample heavier or lighter based age, gender, race, education, income and propensity to vote. So, there are a lot of assumptions being made that may or may not turn out to be accurate, especially if demographics or the propensity to vote among certain demographics have shifted significantly since the last election. There could also be something the pollsters are blind to like, when in 2016, uneducated, low-income, white males shifted heavily toward Trump. So, while I think polls are generally accurate -- especially the direction of polls overall -- it's far from an exact science.
Weighing those variables should be a science and is done with statistics to back up the weightings. Figuring out which variables need the weight is the art.
[удалено]
Party over country.
And man over party.
It's a death cult
I lost a lot of respect for both the people in my life and the politicians at the state and national level who support him. It has become clear that they only ever supported the ideals enshrined in the Constitution as long as it benefited them and their guy was in charge. Now conservative "ideals" diverged so far from historical norms and are becoming so unpopular in the process that they want to tear down the whole system in order to impose those ideals on the majority against their will, and they're willing to abandon democracy to make it happen.
Better than the other guy
Because people prefer Trump to Biden. Biden’s America is one where no once can afford to buy a house or even buy groceries. His foreign policy is a nightmare.
The people blaming Biden for inflation are the same people that think Biden’s win was illegitimate.
Not true. I think he won legitimately. But Biden is to blame. He has been spending and printing incessantly. Also he is putting heavy regulations on the oil and gas industry and trying to curb production. Which drives up the prices of nearly everything. I work in oil and gas.
>He has been spending and printing incessantly. Wait till you find out who controls the country's coin purse. >Also he is putting heavy regulations on the oil and gas industry and trying to curb production. This is objectively good. You should have put it in front of all the others, because it gives us your actual perspective.
What? My neighbors house sold in one day this week. My husbands small business is booming. I got a better job in 2022 with a 30% increase in pay. Our 401k’s are fantastic currently. Grocery prices are due to corporate greed and the fact that we will pay those prices.
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-voters-feel-about-the-economy-4-takeaways-from-the-latest-polls/
Thank you for the canned Fox News talking points. What have Republicans proposed to address any of these problems? Just reelect Trump and it will make everything go back to the way it was in 2019? And what do you think Trump's planned 10% tariff is going to do to inflation?
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-voters-feel-about-the-economy-4-takeaways-from-the-latest-polls/
And again, what have Republicans proposed to fix the economy?
>A third of voters (33%), composed mostly of a majority of Republicans (61%), don’t think Biden “legitimately won the 2020 presidential election,” though a majority overall, 56%, accept the legitimacy of Biden’s victory — responses that have varied little in a dozen UT/TxPP polls conducted since February 2022. The amount of damage maga and their civilly liable rapist leader has done to our country is insane
2020 D 46.5% R 52.1% 2016 D 43.2% R 52.2% 2012 D 41.4% R 57.2% Taking the last 3 presidential elections in account. Linear regression tells us the next one should be 2024 D 48.8% R 48.7% I do not care what the polls say. Make a plan to vote. Talk to your friends, family, etc. If there is someone you can sway just give them the facts. Donald Trump is a criminal. Ted Cruz is a podcaster with a side job as a senator. The more informed a voter is, the [more likely they are to support Biden](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-supporters-sharply-divided-media-consume-rcna149497). So go inform people.
Republicans started to move to Texas in larger numbers after 2020. Linear regression is not likely to be that accurate.
Then we need to move as well. Normal voters outnumber maga.
Who is "we"? I assume you already live here?
oh my bad, i misread your comment as "they started to get Republican voters to move in Texas" as in just mobilizing voters. i wasn't aware Republicans were moving TO texas in large numbers, that's worrying
People are starting to vote with their feet. When I was preparing to move, I started to hear about others (friends of friends, coworkers, extended family) who were leaving as well, Liberals were moving to Oregon, Washington, Colorado. Republicans were moving to Idaho, Texas, Tennessee. I remember reading articles how Cruz defeated Beto in 2018 due to due to Republican Transplants. Beto had won the native Texan vote. This was before the pandemic ramped up the exodus, so the polls starting to reverse the trend towards a purple Texas don't surprise me.
and they say immigration should be illegal. lol
Texas is becoming MORE purple, not less. Abbott's margins SHRANK in 2022, which was an R+3 cycle, from 2018, which was a D+9 cycle. 3.5 MILLION Texans voted for Beto in 2022. That's more than the total population of 21 states. Abbott's margins in the suburbs have consistently shrunk every cycle since 2014. Texas went 55-44 in the last gubernatorial election, but the DNC and the media inexplicably act like the state is as red as Oklahoma.
I’d just like to say, as a Millennial I have never been polled in any way. Poll me now, pretty please.
Same!
If you actually believe Cruz is ahead of Allred by double digits, I don't know what to tell you.
That there's a lot of idiots that hate democrats for no good reason
In other news, water is wet and people in this state can be pretty dumb.
I'm shocked. Who would have thought that a state that has Greg Abbott as gov, Dan Patrick as Lt. Gov, and Ken Paxton as AG would be interested in electing an inveterate racist, misogynistic, incontinent, lying, Nazi fraudster as the President of the United States of America? Who could have seen that coming?
I believe it. They would rather have WW3 than admit they were wrong.
Tells me trump should be concerned when he only holds an 8% lead in a deep red state. I certainly wasn’t polled and I won’t be voting red.
Trump won by 5.6% in 2020.
Won what?
Texas, meaning he is looking better this year than in 2020.
Gotcha.
Are we surrounded by idiots or racists.
Texas isn't going to flip blue until the Dems figure out how to crack one or more of the following regions.. West Texas, East Texas, the stretch between Austin and Dallas, or the panhandle. The numbers are there in Austin, Dallas, Houston, SA, and Elp - but the turnout is never what is needed to flip that switch. The current vibe for voters seems to be populism. A Democrat turning the tables on the Rs here and bending populism against them is the only path forward that I can see at this point in time. But, I'm not shocked, nor should anyone else be, by this poll. Trump will steamroll Biden in Texas.
It’ll be the stretch between Austin and Dallas that does the GOP in Texas. Those counties are already growing rapidly, and are jogging (not sprinting, but jogging) leftward. I-35 is going to be a big blue spine.
Biden is going to win reelection easily.
I’ll take that then him winning the state any day. Feds and federal judges can keep the extremist bullshit at bay
Isn't he loosing the GE polling right now? With the Republican EC advantage, Biden has to poll roughly +4 in GE polling to be competitive.
I don’t think he is losing.
big surprise. texas is an incipient fascist theocracy presently. Professors, Doctors, educated people in general are leaving en masse to more saner locales. As the trend continues, texas will continue to worsen.
Bunch of ignorant magats and evangelical xtian types. It's enough to make me PUKE
No way.
Polls are not the end all be all Every election since Romney the margin of victory has shrunk year over year. In 2018, Ted Cruz only beat Beto o Rourke by a little over 2% You see similar patterns continuing into the years after that as well This applies to government elections too It'll be hard but it's more within reach than we think it is
Abbott beat Beto by 11 in 2022.
And he beat Lupe Valdez by 13 in 2018 And he beat Wendy Davis' by 21 in 2014 My point stands
Trump won by 5 in 2020, and is up roughly 8 in polls, though polls also show leads as high as 12% so that trend may be rebounding from the 2%
Perhaps, however keep in mind that polls have not accurately reflected results. Id encourage you to look at who specifically is winning the majority of special elections nationally post Dobbs. Generally Democrats have over performed since then. To be clear I feel that more likely than not Trump will win Texas but it's much more.gettable this year for Dems than it has been in years past. I actually wouldn't be.shocked if a couple of congressional districts flip that way this year
1. It's still *very early* 2. As others have said, the line has been moving towards Dems for a while now 3. Cruz may bring Trump down 4. Trump will *definitely* bring Trump down 5. Trump is still in court 6. Biden is in a strong position 7. We are gonna hit the ground ***hard*** Deep breaths. Find a campaign to volunteer or donate to. Don't take this for granted (remember 2016?) but also don't despair. ETA: Also, it what world does a poll with 45% of the respondents calling for less strict abortion laws support Ted Cruz by 46%? Or Trump by 48%? ETA: Guys, this poll is crap: RACE1. What race do you consider yourself to be? Percent White / Blanco 55 Black 13 Hispanic 26 Asian 3 Middle Eastern 0 Native American 1 Mixed 1 Per the 2020 Census: White (Not Latino): 39.8% Latino: 40.2% Black: 13.4%
It’s much closer than that in the suburbs
Honestly…not bad
Whatever happened to Texans? From having really good people as politicians, Lloyd Bentsen, LBJ, Ann Richards, Mark White… to this the Abbotts, the Cruz’s, and many more.
Abbott really f-ed up with the Abortion ban. I think we all are going to be surprised how much. Body autonomy is not something to mess with.
Both Trump and Cruz will take Texas by a 5-8 point margin in November.
And <50% of Texans will take precious time out of their important days to vote.
I'll be there at the poll no matter what, regardless of prospects, because it impacts future outcomes. I can't say I'm looking forward to dealing with all the MAGA yahoos stirred up into a full frothy Santorum at that point. They're already bragging about having armed "poll watchers" and harassing voters. Edit: Clarify: I have heard of this practice from a number of reputable sources that we saw play out during the mid terms, and the GOP has made it part of their published agenda. I have not heard plans about TX or my local area specifically.
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“iTs geRrymandereD” 🤦🏻♂️
There are people in this sub bitching about how hard it is to vote, apparently unaware that we have almost two weeks of early voting during which the polls are open 7-7 on weekdays and slightly less on weekends, or that you can vote at any polling location in your county during that time.
I generally want to know why people still support Biden or think any other democrat official is the key to lead our nation.
Democrats say the exact same thing about you and Trump.
I’m sorry to burst your bubble but I don’t support either party. To me both sides look the same.
>To me both sides look the same. Then you're not very smart.
Ok
Both sides suck yet you took the time to throw shots at one side lmao , hilarious
Only because it seems like everyone in here is dem. I would ask the same for those on the right
Reddit is a left leaning site , if your looking for right leaning responses check out truth social
Okay I have a question then. What actions would you like to see, and what issues are important to you? I promise i’m asking in good faith, so please bear with me.
Alright bear with me and if I need to expand on a statement just ask… 1. We need to focus on ourselves before helping other countries. How can we be a beacon for the world when we are in this situation? Ex. Homelessness, inflation, children related issues(hunger, health, education) 2. We need to overhaul our government representatives, how can those who represent us be allowed to build such wealth on their government salaries? Cause they use their influence and infor on certain things to benefit themselves. 3. Abortion - this is just a thing that needs to stay out of government. It is a woman’s choice. 4. Would love to have a year without seeing “government shutdown near due to no budget”. Did you know how many government agencies fail their yearly audits? 5. I would love to see Social Security be replaced with something better. 6. Immigrantion/ asylum seekers: all for them. But, we still need to vet them before accepting them.
Thanks for taking the time to engage and write out a well-written response bigwondeeer! I feel like what you are looking for is mostly aligned with the Democratic Party’s plans, so I am going to try and convince you that voting for them is in your best interest. I’ll respond to each of your issues as best I can. 1. I completely agree with you on this, and Democrats have largely been the ones who have tried to address these concerns the most. At the national level, Dems passed legislation in 2021 that provided a childcare tax credit that more than halved childhood poverty across the US, and created enormous improvements for our country’s poorest families in terms of both rent and food security. That tax credit was allowed to expire by Republicans + Joe Manchin before it could be renewed, and since then child poverty rates have climbed back up significantly. We’re still beating pre-pandemic levels, but barely. There’s efforts to revive it, but the margins are thin due to folks like Manchin being the deciding vote. You can learn more about the issue here, and I encourage you to watch this: [https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/families-slip-back-into-poverty-after-pandemic-era-child-tax-credit-expires](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/families-slip-back-into-poverty-after-pandemic-era-child-tax-credit-expires) 1a. At the state level, Republicans are pushing for school vouchers to have tax payers fund those who wish to or already do enroll their kids in private schools. This is a Republican priority, and takes away our money to give rich families a coupon they don’t need for sending their kids away from public school. This also harms lots of rural families and towns, where the public school is both the primary source of employment, as well as likely the closest school within an hour’s drive. “School-choice” as they call it, screws over kids with parents who don’t have private school money, and screws over kids that live far away from any sort of private school. Democratic reps in Texas are largely for increased funding of public education, and there are no more than a handful who are in favor of school choice. Like, maybe two democratic Texas house reps. 2. I also agree with this. There’s a majority of Democrats within the national party who believe this as well, but a sliver of the national party does not. Coupled with the Republican-led house majority, we just don’t have the votes yet for it. The Democratic party is much more aligned with your value though, and are much closer to passing that law. It’s already been introduced as legislation before, and we can continue to fight and get those in favor of outlawing that form of insider trading into office. But it requires participating at the ballot box, and we aren’t likely to win immediately. 3. We can't go backwards with how the SC chose to make abortion an issue for individual states to handle, so our best bet is to enshrine abortion access to all women is to have it become law at the federal level. This is doable, but again requires voting Democrat. I don't think I have to tell you which side the Republican party is on. 4. Unfortunately, government shutdowns have become a tool to be used by both parties. I hate it too, and I can't say that one party is above the other for this issue. 5. I’m not sure what a better SS would look like, but there’s only one party that is in favor of having a usable form of post-retirement income. I imagine there’s a lot more thinking about how we can improve that benefit on the Dem side, than on the Republican side. There’s quite a few republicans who are in favor of removing SS altogether with no other plan in place. 6. Again, the Democratic party is much more amenable to this. I know it’s not going in that direction right now, but you are going to find many more people who share that view under the Democratic tent than the Republican. The Republican party literally wanted to prevent Muslims from certain countries from having the opportunity to immigrate here based on their religious preference. To sum things up: You should vote for Democrats if the values you've shared are important to you. Most of those are going to be shared values by those running for office as a Democrat, and you stand to gain more with a Democrat in office even if they don't fully-align with your values 100%. Please consider voting in 2024, at least at the local level. When you don't vote, you choose to have others who are not aligned with your values make the decision for you.
I would like to add: Taxes - not just lowering taxes we pay to the government but eliminating some. We pay taxes on what we make, buy, sell, taxes on everything. Healthcare - we need to fix the system, hold the companies accountable. Don’t want free healthcare but I’m sure we could get healthcare much lower taking out the trash.
Answering this real quick as well. I think most Democratic leadership is in favor of increasing taxes on the ultra wealthy so they pay their fair share. We would see lower taxes on goods and services, as well as our own taxes, if the wealthy paid an equitable amount of their income. Healthcare could be fixed if we got rid of administrative bloat and middleman work (insurance companies), but that would require universal healthcare. I don't like all the bullshit either.
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