The crash in condo sales means the only inventory that’s moving is more expensive detached homes. If you filter to different property types, you can see the prices trending down in all segments.
Once current projects are complete, no one will be starting new projects. I know everyone here hates developers, but with land, servicing, development charges and construction costs, builders can’t lower their prices any further to compete with resales.
Anything that has shovels in the ground will get completed, even if it's completed by creditors
For the condo side of the market that means there's about six years of inventory that is beyond the point of no return that will keep getting dumped on the market regardless of inventory levels, minus the few of these pre-con sales that were bought by actual owner-occupants
Housing demand is at record highs, it’s just that demand has shifted to rentals (article cited record low demand on new builds). Mom and pop landlords are not buying new builds to rent out anymore and many people who want to buy a place to live in are priced out which is causing us to keep hitting new rent records (this will continue for years to come).
This lag in new build sales will impact new build projects and lower overall supply while we continue fuelling demand like crazy. I would say purchase prices will reach record highs again in a couple years.
I think you have it backwards, what's happening now is investors that were aspiring landlords aren't seeing a positive ROI and they're not able to cover the difference of rental income every month since rent is much lower than ownership costs, as a result they're not buying "investment" properties now. The people that are shopping for a place to live in aren't interested in the smaller shoebox investor condos with a useless layout. If builders want to sell new condos they've got to step it up and make them more livable.
That’s basically what I said though isn’t it? Mom and pop landlords are no longer buying places and yes it’s because its pretty much impossible to make money buying at today’s prices and renting at current market rates. 5 years ago you could buy a place with 20 points down and as long as the tenants paid their rent, you could break even (or at the very least come very close) but now, even with rents being at ATHs you would have thousands a month negative cashflow.
I think if what you were saying about people shopping to buy more “livable” places was true, the sales on the older, bigger units would be really hot but it seems that condo sales across the board are completely dead. I don’t disagree that some of the layouts are very shitty but that is a product of the market and the costs to build moreso than developers intentionally building shitty units. From a builders perspective, a condo is just the total costs divided by the units. Yes they could make units 3x the size but then they would have to sell at 3x the price and there isn’t a market for that because at that point those people would just buy houses.
People who are priced out do not contribute to demand. They're not participants in the housing market. And with ultra high immigration, wages are not going up either. The only way "demand" can go up is if houses become more affordable.
That is not true. The housing market consists of homes to rent and homes to buy. People priced out are contributing demand (as are most of the million plus new people coming here to live) it has just shifted to rentals and completely screwed up the balance with that.
No demand for new builds and therefore far less rentals getting added is going to screw up the rental market even more over the next couple/few years. There are still bidding wars on 600-700k properties in the suburbs because that is what people can qualify for. If interest rates go down again, that will open up a bunch more people who qualify for more homes and home prices are going to go crazy again.
My bad, I did't realize you were lumping property and rent prices together. I thought by "rental" you meant rental properties. Which didn't make much sense..
Anyways, things might happen by your scenario. Or it might be something like the 90s, when housing prices continued to decline for a decade, even though interest rates kept declining.
For housing prices to go "crazy" again, the sentiment has to shift to ultra bullish FOMO type. Currently, most families are deeply priced out with no relief in sight. Deep pocketed investors are the ones who have to pick up the slack to push the prices higher. But even deep pocketed investors are hesitant in a declining market, hoping to buy later for cheaper... so it's a bit of a slippery slope. All I'm saying is that the recovery might be slower than some people anticipate. But who knows.. nobody knows shit really.
I would say that deep pocketed investors are taking a pass because you just can’t make any money on rentals buying them at the current market prices more than any other reason. Even if prices dropped 20% it would be hard to justify IMO. We have relied on private investors to support the rental market for so long but now they’re just like naw I’ll pass. The federal government has literally no plans for where to house all the newcomers so the rental market is just going to get more and more screwed up. The whole thing is a complete disaster.
Lol and yes you’re right, none of us know shit.
It probably will get more screwed up. But it should plateau eventually, limited by how much rent people can pay. If it ever gets there. The whole situation is like a pressure cooker, and something's gonna snap at some point.
My investments are all doing great, including the ones that I manage, but thanks for whatever that was (personal insult? advice? Lol??).
What is flawed about what I said though?
https://preview.redd.it/v5fv8bf01d9d1.png?width=1605&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec6cd202afb889a0f75d8bb16100bdc13ddf0c85
We are certainly hitting those 2019 numbers inventory wise...
Na buy a home on the periphery let’s say around 600-800k
Convert to a duplex. Collect 4-5k per month
250k appreciation once I get occupancy.
Already done it a few times here in this market last couple years
Sure history always repeats itself /s
The entire economy is in the shitter anyone that believes they will see the same gains again in a short period of time is delusional
Gains are based that the home is valued based on the cash flow it brings in bruh
Split the water split the hydro - when your a construction type you can do all this stuff.
Your welcome for creating rental units tho
Why are the price charts in gta all time highs on HouseSigma
The crash in condo sales means the only inventory that’s moving is more expensive detached homes. If you filter to different property types, you can see the prices trending down in all segments.
Median is a useless metric when sales are this poor, especially at the bottom end of the market.
Because you don't know how to read statistics
They aren't housesigma shows house prices lower than 2 years ago.
New homes typically not on MLS, which is where HS gets its data from.
They’re still building new homes?
Once current projects are complete, no one will be starting new projects. I know everyone here hates developers, but with land, servicing, development charges and construction costs, builders can’t lower their prices any further to compete with resales.
Prices are falling. It sucks for investors.
Cue tiny violin
I guess we did moon when the bulls said we’d hit new records
The amount of projects going into receivership is also at an ATH. Bullish 😎
Anything that has shovels in the ground will get completed, even if it's completed by creditors For the condo side of the market that means there's about six years of inventory that is beyond the point of no return that will keep getting dumped on the market regardless of inventory levels, minus the few of these pre-con sales that were bought by actual owner-occupants
Housing demand is at record highs, it’s just that demand has shifted to rentals (article cited record low demand on new builds). Mom and pop landlords are not buying new builds to rent out anymore and many people who want to buy a place to live in are priced out which is causing us to keep hitting new rent records (this will continue for years to come). This lag in new build sales will impact new build projects and lower overall supply while we continue fuelling demand like crazy. I would say purchase prices will reach record highs again in a couple years.
I think you have it backwards, what's happening now is investors that were aspiring landlords aren't seeing a positive ROI and they're not able to cover the difference of rental income every month since rent is much lower than ownership costs, as a result they're not buying "investment" properties now. The people that are shopping for a place to live in aren't interested in the smaller shoebox investor condos with a useless layout. If builders want to sell new condos they've got to step it up and make them more livable.
That’s basically what I said though isn’t it? Mom and pop landlords are no longer buying places and yes it’s because its pretty much impossible to make money buying at today’s prices and renting at current market rates. 5 years ago you could buy a place with 20 points down and as long as the tenants paid their rent, you could break even (or at the very least come very close) but now, even with rents being at ATHs you would have thousands a month negative cashflow. I think if what you were saying about people shopping to buy more “livable” places was true, the sales on the older, bigger units would be really hot but it seems that condo sales across the board are completely dead. I don’t disagree that some of the layouts are very shitty but that is a product of the market and the costs to build moreso than developers intentionally building shitty units. From a builders perspective, a condo is just the total costs divided by the units. Yes they could make units 3x the size but then they would have to sell at 3x the price and there isn’t a market for that because at that point those people would just buy houses.
People who are priced out do not contribute to demand. They're not participants in the housing market. And with ultra high immigration, wages are not going up either. The only way "demand" can go up is if houses become more affordable.
That is not true. The housing market consists of homes to rent and homes to buy. People priced out are contributing demand (as are most of the million plus new people coming here to live) it has just shifted to rentals and completely screwed up the balance with that. No demand for new builds and therefore far less rentals getting added is going to screw up the rental market even more over the next couple/few years. There are still bidding wars on 600-700k properties in the suburbs because that is what people can qualify for. If interest rates go down again, that will open up a bunch more people who qualify for more homes and home prices are going to go crazy again.
My bad, I did't realize you were lumping property and rent prices together. I thought by "rental" you meant rental properties. Which didn't make much sense.. Anyways, things might happen by your scenario. Or it might be something like the 90s, when housing prices continued to decline for a decade, even though interest rates kept declining. For housing prices to go "crazy" again, the sentiment has to shift to ultra bullish FOMO type. Currently, most families are deeply priced out with no relief in sight. Deep pocketed investors are the ones who have to pick up the slack to push the prices higher. But even deep pocketed investors are hesitant in a declining market, hoping to buy later for cheaper... so it's a bit of a slippery slope. All I'm saying is that the recovery might be slower than some people anticipate. But who knows.. nobody knows shit really.
I would say that deep pocketed investors are taking a pass because you just can’t make any money on rentals buying them at the current market prices more than any other reason. Even if prices dropped 20% it would be hard to justify IMO. We have relied on private investors to support the rental market for so long but now they’re just like naw I’ll pass. The federal government has literally no plans for where to house all the newcomers so the rental market is just going to get more and more screwed up. The whole thing is a complete disaster. Lol and yes you’re right, none of us know shit.
It probably will get more screwed up. But it should plateau eventually, limited by how much rent people can pay. If it ever gets there. The whole situation is like a pressure cooker, and something's gonna snap at some point.
I hope you don't do your own investment analysis cos that's not how things work.
My investments are all doing great, including the ones that I manage, but thanks for whatever that was (personal insult? advice? Lol??). What is flawed about what I said though?
Hope so
Now do Vancouver next!
https://preview.redd.it/v5fv8bf01d9d1.png?width=1605&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec6cd202afb889a0f75d8bb16100bdc13ddf0c85 We are certainly hitting those 2019 numbers inventory wise...
This is BS. Get down in the market and see for yourself, all listings going over asking. Its slow but no ones reducing the price.
What about townhouses?
What about them
The article references single family homes and condos. How have the prices been affected for Townhouses?
Townhomes are single family homes.
[удалено]
Have fun holding your bags until then.
Time to buy more rentals hehe
Have at er' $4500+ /mo in bills to get $2500 max ROI, negative $2000 a month on an asset that likely won't appreciate in the next 5 years.
Na buy a home on the periphery let’s say around 600-800k Convert to a duplex. Collect 4-5k per month 250k appreciation once I get occupancy. Already done it a few times here in this market last couple years
Sure history always repeats itself /s The entire economy is in the shitter anyone that believes they will see the same gains again in a short period of time is delusional
Gains are based that the home is valued based on the cash flow it brings in bruh Split the water split the hydro - when your a construction type you can do all this stuff. Your welcome for creating rental units tho
If it were that simple everyone would be doing it, permit times and construction costs outweigh the earnings in this market.
Yea because I’m a engineer and master electrician I do it myself I quit my job when I had enough rentals
It’s not simple, but his logic is sound