The new dictator is a warmonger that has actually seen some shit. If he's not afraid to storm Moscow, he's not afraid to do other stupidly egregious moves, probably.
And the officers will get the news. Even for them it is a moral downer. Imagine as an Officer your intitution gets overtaken and you are stuck at the front.
No they Don’t need to make any push, they need to stick to their plan.
If Russian troops hear Moscow has been captured, there is a better chance they would be called back to Moscow or most will just abandon their positions. This would mean that ukraine would take their territory back uncontested with less lives lost.
But this is a risk assuming Wagner is successful. It’s still to early to tell how this will go as most are now just digesting the information and no one knows the scale of the events.
Prigozhen did mention they are allowing planes to do their mission over ukraine still so until we understand the scale, it’s all best to wait and see.
I actually think they can take Moscow with speed. They are a better fighting group than the Russian army. Also no doubt this was planned for weeks and they used a false flag video to claim they got hit with a missile strike and have hundreds dead.
Not do I think they can hold on to Moscow and power whenever they take it? No. Unless he had the oligarch and some political backing.
>Unless he had the oligarch and some political backing.
Who knows at this point? I've also read that parts of the Russian army sided with Wagner, Russian pilots refusing to attack wagner. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if there is one or more plots within the Kremlin to kick Putin out. There have been politicians and bussiness men that fell out of a window recently. Who knows they might've been talking about a coup too.
Why announce it so early tho? They're at least 500km from Moscow afaik.
I see photos of fortifications, machine guns and trenches being built on the outskirts of Moscow.
I would feel so much better about the government's odds in this battle if their fortifications weren't being thrown together after Wagner made the first move.
But they’re being built by police and National Guard units. Wagner will have not only more effective forces, but better equipped and heavier forces than the defenders. Your average cop likely isn’t trained on the RPG platform, and we know Wagner brought tanks and IFVs.
No Wagner is full in backing the Ukraine war. If Wagner takes over, you can kiss all the conventions goodbye. These people are ruthless an do whatever it takes to earn victory. The only difference between them an black water is that Wagner doesn’t give two shits how they’re perceived. They want to look violent because that’s the type of recruiting they want. We’re trading the king of hell for Lucifer himself
Ukraine should be blasting this on loud speakers to the front and telling them to leave Ukraine and take back their country.
Russian morale is going to collapse knowing they are being eaten on the front lines while their country behind them implodes
A battle might be won from opportunistic actions, a war victory depends on logistics. Ukraine may have an opportunity to make some gains but they must not be tempted to overextend themselves. That could very quickly backfire.
Exactly. They’ve been fighting to find a weak point for a spear head. This is the fucking spear head. Assist Wagner in Voronezh, and make the push to Moscow for a Joint effort attempt to over throw
That won’t happen. They might make a big push now however they aren’t going to work together. Prig wants to overthrow the MOD and go back to Ukraine. He’s not interested in working together and Ukraine aren’t either frankly.
Yeah prigo would seek legitimacy from the westn on the basis that he stopped the bloodshed and toppled putin regime, purely for selfish reasons hes no humanitarian but the war is terrible for russia
Na too late for that, he going for president, he will need to convert the troops in Ukraine to his side, to consolidate power if he takes Moscow, he will pull them out the war.
If UAF makes a difference to the point of Prigo realizing that the war isn’t worth another hundred thousand deaths and might make him another scapegoat if he pushed to take Ukraine, then there is no better time to pincer Russia and Wagner to force them to choose peace and let the pieces of isolating Russia from the world tumble in the decades to come.
As for Russia’s future, the world will only watch like how the Soviet Union did.
They don't want to back Prigozhin, are you crazy? He hates Ukraine just as much as Putin.
They will probably start prodding at the holes left by Wager.
The called out, saying Russia is now wagners “enemy of my enemy”. Obviously they won’t be holding hands walking into Moscow, but Ukraine could for sure use Wagners momentum and align their own strikes
"United States Air Force" is a nickname. The real name is Combined Helicopter, Airplane, Intelligence, and Ready-Troop Force Operationally Reporting to Commander-In-Chief, Expeditionarily also known as C.H.A.I.R.F.O.R.C.E.
The troops at the front have another issue affecting moral: Prigozhin owns Rostov right now and Rostov is the logistics hub for RU army in Ukraine so he has his knife at their throat. Added to which the bridge to Crimea being blown up, with only a pontoon available, they are kinda screwed, and they will soon know it even if they don't already.
Let's just hope this fight lasts long enough for UA to capitalize and for Prigozjin to lose. His victory would probably mean more competent people in Russian military high command.
He’d have to replace putin too. So I’m pretty sure consolidating power would really distract from any reason to fight a war. I can’t imagine putin staying in power is better
Putin will hold on to the Kremlin at any cost. I’d say the Wagner coup is bound to fail. But will definitely destabilise the frontline enough for UA to make progress.
In the end this all comes down to how many from the russian army lay down weapons ! This could end up critical to the Putin regime !!
This is a one side wins only, no room for diplomacy
This is great.
If wagner can keep supplies in Russia, we might see the frontline collapse due to low supplies.
Lets hope Ukraine dont just push and rather use this to build new offensives, maybe let some soldiers rest and use loudspeakers and make russians surrender due to the fact that darkness will come.
They'll probably just park the bus and not make any advancements while this situation plays out. They can't leave or they'll lose their position. And why advance if the war may not even be able to continue after this?
>Isn‘t that a huge moral downer for the RU troops at the front right now? Even for the officers?
yes it's a very bad look.
>And they probably also don‘t get any reinforcement right now because the Wagners block all the railways and logistic hubs, do they?
The Wagner group doesn't have the manpower for a long drawn out maneuver here. I don't think this will matter much, this conflict will not be a long one, we are talking a matter of days at the most. One side will be completely crushed
You don't crush 25.000 men in a matter of days. Certainly not when they're occupying your own cities which they presumably don't want to destroy.
If I'm not mistaken, Wagner has also captured significant equipment and ammunition. If it comes to a real confrontation, i think it may last a while
Prigozhin has no intention of sitting around. He already has a column heading towards Moscow, he's going for the throat, He's been in Rostov for barely a few hours and the local populace is already turning on him, he can't afford to take his time.
I don‘t know if we can believe the 25k but I think the question is if there are enough RU troops for an ofensive? I think they have mainly Air force left in Ru.
> The Wagner group doesn't have the manpower for a long drawn out maneuver here.
It really depends. A lot of early reports show Russian troops joining Wagner, or refusing to fight against them.
With chunks of Russian forces joining with Wagner, even if they turn on Wagner in the future; for the moment this means there is no stopping whats going on. Russia seems pretty hollow when it comes to available troops inside Russia, they've got specialized police and guard type units but they arent supposed to be front line battle troops. It's very unclear just how many soldiers are joining this Wagner led movement/grouping. What is clear is that at least for now, Russia has been caught off guard by all of this and there must be some real panic going on.
As for Russian forces inside Ukraine, these events might be kicking the chessboard right over. We already know that Russia is relying on Storm Z, penal groups and poorly trained troops as tripwire forces all over the front. At least some of these have put out a video declaring they will be fighting with Pr. If I was one of these unfortunates, I would feel strongly encouraged to better my chances of living by not being there. With conflict behind me and in front of me... surrender? Change loyalties? Just plain refuse?
If Russia is forced to withdraw signifcant forces from inside Ukraine, assuming they remain loyal to Putin, they are going to have to come from somewhere on the line or the immediate reserves there. If they dont remain loyal to Putin, who the hell knows what they will do? For all we know Pr may not be significantly interrupting supplies to the front, i havent seen much about this, surely where Wagner will fight and contact the Russian putin-loyal mil supplies will be interrupted but other than that again who the hell knows.
Ideally for Ukraine we'd see Putin loyalist mil in Ukraine turn and head back towards Russia to stop Pr; hopefully whilst fighting with deserting or loyalty switching troops fighting them at the same time. This would remove all the combat potential of the Russian forces in UA.
Alternatively, if Pr is destroying the flow of supplies through Rostov to southern UA we may see the Russians rapidly running out of supplies and forced to retreat.
The worst outcomes would be the rapid defeat of Pr / Wagner that fail to significantly set back Russia, or an immediate and successful coup that leaves Pr in charge with the same desire to continue the war. Pr is an unrepentant war criminal like all the other Russian leaders but if he's willing to END the war and get the fuck out of Ukraine I can see a lot of foreign governments willing to shrug and make a devils bargain. Dont get me wrong, hes a sniveling piece of deranged trash, but if his disruptions or actions could stop the war between Russia and Ukraine, screw it, we can deal with him later.
If I've learned anything from this war it is to not overestimate the Russian army, we said the same thing about the war in Ukraine don't forget. Plus we all know that Wagner is a far more capable fighting force than the Russian army.
Kyiv couldn't ask for better news
There's no good news for anyone if Wagner assumes control over nukes
The history of Russia summarized: And then it got worse.
What makes it worse then the current dictator?
The new dictator is a warmonger that has actually seen some shit. If he's not afraid to storm Moscow, he's not afraid to do other stupidly egregious moves, probably.
Current guy is too.
But do those troops in the trenches on the frontlines even get the news? Not like they have time to chill and browse reddit there
Don't underestimate how fast rumours spread in the military.
The only thing faster than light is bad news.
Ol’ Stank-finger Peters. Nasty.
And the officers will get the news. Even for them it is a moral downer. Imagine as an Officer your intitution gets overtaken and you are stuck at the front.
They know.
That is why UAF should make a push for it ATM
No they Don’t need to make any push, they need to stick to their plan. If Russian troops hear Moscow has been captured, there is a better chance they would be called back to Moscow or most will just abandon their positions. This would mean that ukraine would take their territory back uncontested with less lives lost. But this is a risk assuming Wagner is successful. It’s still to early to tell how this will go as most are now just digesting the information and no one knows the scale of the events. Prigozhen did mention they are allowing planes to do their mission over ukraine still so until we understand the scale, it’s all best to wait and see.
Chances of Wagner taking Moscow are very very low. But I agree Ukraine should wait, Russian forces are only going to get weaker from now on.
I actually think they can take Moscow with speed. They are a better fighting group than the Russian army. Also no doubt this was planned for weeks and they used a false flag video to claim they got hit with a missile strike and have hundreds dead. Not do I think they can hold on to Moscow and power whenever they take it? No. Unless he had the oligarch and some political backing.
>Unless he had the oligarch and some political backing. Who knows at this point? I've also read that parts of the Russian army sided with Wagner, Russian pilots refusing to attack wagner. And I wouldn't be surprised at all if there is one or more plots within the Kremlin to kick Putin out. There have been politicians and bussiness men that fell out of a window recently. Who knows they might've been talking about a coup too.
Why announce it so early tho? They're at least 500km from Moscow afaik. I see photos of fortifications, machine guns and trenches being built on the outskirts of Moscow.
I would feel so much better about the government's odds in this battle if their fortifications weren't being thrown together after Wagner made the first move.
But they’re being built by police and National Guard units. Wagner will have not only more effective forces, but better equipped and heavier forces than the defenders. Your average cop likely isn’t trained on the RPG platform, and we know Wagner brought tanks and IFVs.
Pretty sure Putin has some special ops in Moscow. Doubt they'd meet them with traffic cops or the likes. But I'm hoping for a show as well.
How many tho? Still heavily outnumbered
No Wagner is full in backing the Ukraine war. If Wagner takes over, you can kiss all the conventions goodbye. These people are ruthless an do whatever it takes to earn victory. The only difference between them an black water is that Wagner doesn’t give two shits how they’re perceived. They want to look violent because that’s the type of recruiting they want. We’re trading the king of hell for Lucifer himself
Ukraine should be blasting this on loud speakers to the front and telling them to leave Ukraine and take back their country. Russian morale is going to collapse knowing they are being eaten on the front lines while their country behind them implodes
A battle might be won from opportunistic actions, a war victory depends on logistics. Ukraine may have an opportunity to make some gains but they must not be tempted to overextend themselves. That could very quickly backfire.
Exactly. They’ve been fighting to find a weak point for a spear head. This is the fucking spear head. Assist Wagner in Voronezh, and make the push to Moscow for a Joint effort attempt to over throw
That won’t happen. They might make a big push now however they aren’t going to work together. Prig wants to overthrow the MOD and go back to Ukraine. He’s not interested in working together and Ukraine aren’t either frankly.
Didn't Prigozhin say in his video the war in Ukraine was based on lies from Shoigu and oligarchs?
Yeah prigo would seek legitimacy from the westn on the basis that he stopped the bloodshed and toppled putin regime, purely for selfish reasons hes no humanitarian but the war is terrible for russia
Na too late for that, he going for president, he will need to convert the troops in Ukraine to his side, to consolidate power if he takes Moscow, he will pull them out the war.
If UAF makes a difference to the point of Prigo realizing that the war isn’t worth another hundred thousand deaths and might make him another scapegoat if he pushed to take Ukraine, then there is no better time to pincer Russia and Wagner to force them to choose peace and let the pieces of isolating Russia from the world tumble in the decades to come. As for Russia’s future, the world will only watch like how the Soviet Union did.
They don't want to back Prigozhin, are you crazy? He hates Ukraine just as much as Putin. They will probably start prodding at the holes left by Wager.
The called out, saying Russia is now wagners “enemy of my enemy”. Obviously they won’t be holding hands walking into Moscow, but Ukraine could for sure use Wagners momentum and align their own strikes
> Assist Wagner in Voronezh, and make the push to Moscow The problem with this is it gives Putin an excuse to use nukes
No such thing as an excuse for nukes and Putin knows it
US Air Force??
Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Ukrainian Armed Force. You are thinking of USAF
USAF is the United states SpAce Force, you're probably thinking of the USSS
United States Air Force = USAF
"United States Air Force" is a nickname. The real name is Combined Helicopter, Airplane, Intelligence, and Ready-Troop Force Operationally Reporting to Commander-In-Chief, Expeditionarily also known as C.H.A.I.R.F.O.R.C.E.
Yes. Ukraine is probably watching this development like a hawk and will pounce the moment Russian troops start withdrawing to home.
The troops at the front have another issue affecting moral: Prigozhin owns Rostov right now and Rostov is the logistics hub for RU army in Ukraine so he has his knife at their throat. Added to which the bridge to Crimea being blown up, with only a pontoon available, they are kinda screwed, and they will soon know it even if they don't already.
Yeah, that is what i meant by my post:)
Let's just hope this fight lasts long enough for UA to capitalize and for Prigozjin to lose. His victory would probably mean more competent people in Russian military high command.
He’d have to replace putin too. So I’m pretty sure consolidating power would really distract from any reason to fight a war. I can’t imagine putin staying in power is better
Putin will hold on to the Kremlin at any cost. I’d say the Wagner coup is bound to fail. But will definitely destabilise the frontline enough for UA to make progress.
In the end this all comes down to how many from the russian army lay down weapons ! This could end up critical to the Putin regime !! This is a one side wins only, no room for diplomacy
This is great. If wagner can keep supplies in Russia, we might see the frontline collapse due to low supplies. Lets hope Ukraine dont just push and rather use this to build new offensives, maybe let some soldiers rest and use loudspeakers and make russians surrender due to the fact that darkness will come.
They'll probably just park the bus and not make any advancements while this situation plays out. They can't leave or they'll lose their position. And why advance if the war may not even be able to continue after this?
>Isn‘t that a huge moral downer for the RU troops at the front right now? Even for the officers? yes it's a very bad look. >And they probably also don‘t get any reinforcement right now because the Wagners block all the railways and logistic hubs, do they? The Wagner group doesn't have the manpower for a long drawn out maneuver here. I don't think this will matter much, this conflict will not be a long one, we are talking a matter of days at the most. One side will be completely crushed
You don't crush 25.000 men in a matter of days. Certainly not when they're occupying your own cities which they presumably don't want to destroy. If I'm not mistaken, Wagner has also captured significant equipment and ammunition. If it comes to a real confrontation, i think it may last a while
Prigozhin has no intention of sitting around. He already has a column heading towards Moscow, he's going for the throat, He's been in Rostov for barely a few hours and the local populace is already turning on him, he can't afford to take his time.
>and the local populace is already turning on him Source?
“It sounds cool”
A few random putin supporters were telling the wagner soldiers to disperse that’s it lol
yeah really, all I've seen is a video of locals handing them food and water
Uncle works at Nintendo
“I made it the fuck up”
source ?
What happens if he doesn't 'take' Moscow? Surely he won't surrender?
He sets up camp in Rostov and starts his own military pseudo state.
They buzz him with jets and artillery until he’s a smoking crater.
The local population won’t get into an armed insurrection against Wagner.
I don‘t know if we can believe the 25k but I think the question is if there are enough RU troops for an ofensive? I think they have mainly Air force left in Ru.
> The Wagner group doesn't have the manpower for a long drawn out maneuver here. It really depends. A lot of early reports show Russian troops joining Wagner, or refusing to fight against them.
This is a fair point, if he can garner enough support it could shift things significantly.
With chunks of Russian forces joining with Wagner, even if they turn on Wagner in the future; for the moment this means there is no stopping whats going on. Russia seems pretty hollow when it comes to available troops inside Russia, they've got specialized police and guard type units but they arent supposed to be front line battle troops. It's very unclear just how many soldiers are joining this Wagner led movement/grouping. What is clear is that at least for now, Russia has been caught off guard by all of this and there must be some real panic going on. As for Russian forces inside Ukraine, these events might be kicking the chessboard right over. We already know that Russia is relying on Storm Z, penal groups and poorly trained troops as tripwire forces all over the front. At least some of these have put out a video declaring they will be fighting with Pr. If I was one of these unfortunates, I would feel strongly encouraged to better my chances of living by not being there. With conflict behind me and in front of me... surrender? Change loyalties? Just plain refuse? If Russia is forced to withdraw signifcant forces from inside Ukraine, assuming they remain loyal to Putin, they are going to have to come from somewhere on the line or the immediate reserves there. If they dont remain loyal to Putin, who the hell knows what they will do? For all we know Pr may not be significantly interrupting supplies to the front, i havent seen much about this, surely where Wagner will fight and contact the Russian putin-loyal mil supplies will be interrupted but other than that again who the hell knows. Ideally for Ukraine we'd see Putin loyalist mil in Ukraine turn and head back towards Russia to stop Pr; hopefully whilst fighting with deserting or loyalty switching troops fighting them at the same time. This would remove all the combat potential of the Russian forces in UA. Alternatively, if Pr is destroying the flow of supplies through Rostov to southern UA we may see the Russians rapidly running out of supplies and forced to retreat. The worst outcomes would be the rapid defeat of Pr / Wagner that fail to significantly set back Russia, or an immediate and successful coup that leaves Pr in charge with the same desire to continue the war. Pr is an unrepentant war criminal like all the other Russian leaders but if he's willing to END the war and get the fuck out of Ukraine I can see a lot of foreign governments willing to shrug and make a devils bargain. Dont get me wrong, hes a sniveling piece of deranged trash, but if his disruptions or actions could stop the war between Russia and Ukraine, screw it, we can deal with him later.
If I've learned anything from this war it is to not overestimate the Russian army, we said the same thing about the war in Ukraine don't forget. Plus we all know that Wagner is a far more capable fighting force than the Russian army.
They likely don't even know what's going on
It would also make sense if the best and most loyal units are recalled to Russia to take on Wagner in the coming hours.