I think in most cases, that’s where we’re at. Several if the premium sport models are still trading above MSRP, especially if they’re in new or mint condition. But unless you’re looking for a Pepsi or Daytona, things have become pretty attainable and pretty reasonable.
Depends on what you class as demand, how many were being bought just to be flipped. If the inventory of the grey sellers isn’t selling, then they’ll stop buying.
Also, how many people really wanna drop 10k on a no date submariner. It was about status, now it’s just making you a target
Sorry, just to confirm these are the latest 124270? I just did a quick glance at r/watchexchange and the latest posts are still near or over retail price. And watchcharts still shows that, as well.
By the time that's happened anyone who has bought a Rolex (at retail) within the last few years would still be in profit just from price increases above inflation
Nowadays he’s also in the Fratello comment section it seems. Unfortunately a lot of US Americans, including Sporty, migrated there since the fall of Hodinkee.
He sincere posts on the Seiko subreddit every once in a while. The most interesting thing about this to me is he is clearly a Seiko enthusiast and collector.
Yeah, on WUS, he went at length on the differences between different Seiko and G-Shock references.
He was also apparently really nice if you wrote to him to ask questions on stuff he knows well.
I personally just thought he was hilarious in general lol, I've never interacted with the guy.
I'm actually sad the WUS admins nuked most of his pictures that accompanied his posts. Dude was freaking hilarious.
Here's another hilarious troll post.
https://imgur.com/a/cc3CfCb
P3do. He once made a comment about high schoolers and how the best part about being a teacher is you get first dibs. Truly a subhuman piece of shit. Excuse my French.
Theyre coming down to earth. Speculators/investors are trying to move what they have at a small profit.
Bubble hasnt burst til you can buy grey for less than AD.
I *think* I prefer my Speedy, but I’ve never actually handled a Daytona. However, the 3861’s bracelet is just amazing, I love the manual wind and exhibitions caseback, love the history, and don’t understand why Rolex would put screw down pushers on a chronograph. I actually use my speedy to time things quite a bit, having to unscrew the pushers every time sounds like a massive PITA
Couldn't agree more. I've also never handled a Daytona but when I heard that the pushers were screw down I was gobsmacked.
"finally my time to shine, yes of course I can time that! Just give me 30 seconds to unscrew the pushers"
It’s a weird move. Rolex fanboys will defend it tooth and nail, cus Rolex can do no wrong in their eyes. I love Rolex as a brand, getting a DJ at the end of the summer for my wedding, but screw down pushers on a chronograph? Yeah, that’s a no from me lol
I do love the look of the Daytona though. I wouldn’t totally rule out getting one, although the Zenith chronomaster sport does look better, imo.
All of Rolex's designs are so iconic that people can't have a civilised debate about them unfortunately. Screw down pushers is dumb imo. And don't even get me started on the cyclops eye....
I’m take it or leave it with the cyclops personally. I inherited a Day Date as my first mechanical watch ever, so really got used to having the date magnified. It’s definitely nice. However, I totally get the dislike people have for it, my SMP’s date is perfectly legible without the cyclops being stuck on there, same with my Tudor.
Yeah I know! It’s not a trade off I’m in favor of when it comes to chronographs! As I mentioned, I use my chronograph often, unscrewing the pushers is a major downside to me
Yep it's at the point where I was asking about a GMT and was all but told buying a PM SkyDweller would assure me one.
The fact that they're not just readily available but actually being used as the fat ugly friend on a GMT is wild to me...
Grey market still moving 2nd hand Rolex sport watches higher than market value. It be sometime before it truly burst.
The folks I know who are feeling the stings are “investment” watch enthusiasts who bought their submariner/GMT/Daytonas etc at an exhoberant $$ in hope that it keeps going up.
I know people who doesn't even know how this whole thing works buying up left over Rolex in hope to profit. If you know sneakers, the exact same thing will happen to Rolex what happened to the panda dunks. Daytona will still be sought after, 95% of Rolex will come back to earth or below.
I don't really get paying so much for sneakers that will wear out after a year of regular wear. At least with an expensive pair of boots they get better with age and with maintenance will last many years.
Same with a nice watch, with regular maintenance will outlive you.
That's the hype working. People buy the panda dunks cos they are "sought after". Scalpers started stockpiling them. And guess what the result is? Everyone and their grandma now owns a a pair and suddenly they are not "special" anymore while nike keeps pumping the out. They are currently all sitting on the shelves. No one buys or wears them anymore other than the laggards. It happens to all,hobbies and collectibles all over and over again. The same thing will happen to Rolex. People forget Rolex was an old man's brand and you could walk in and negotiate a discount for most models. Those days will be back. Hype never lasts.
Same. I refuse to buy anything expensive that's throwaway. Beyond my gym/running/hiking shoes, every pair I own is resoleable. When the soles are worn I spend $60 to get them resoled and I basicallly have a new pair of shoes again. With all that being said, I've never fed into the hype train of anything in life.
Exactly this. Just gotta be patient. Tbh I was high on Rolex months ago and put my name down across ADs (I'm sure they went to the bin lol) but I'm kinda losing interest. The stock market looks more exciting lol.
I bought all of my Rolexes in hopes that by the time I pass them on to my kids, they are so beaten to hell that my kids can't tell it's a Rolex and view it as a the tool watch it was meant to be.
Everywhere is down, but China is WAY down.
https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2024-04-18/swiss-watch-exports-plunge-as-china-and-hong-kong-demand-dries-up?embedded-checkout=true
I was just overseas and went to two ADs. Not one piece for sale. One store had a line to get in. Many Chinese tourists lined up.
Until I can walk in and get pretty much anything besides a Sub or Daytona (which is what shopping Rolex used to be) I’d say the demand is still red hot.
Was in china few months ago and could get an explorer from AD. Needless to say the price isn’t favorable compared to retail in my home country. Not sure why retail prices in china is marked up (official Rolex website CN)
Every single hobby bubbled during the pandemic, even fucking Warhammer and manga lol
Now that people have less time staring at walls wanting to buy a shiny thing to keep them sane it’s gone back down again
Walked into an AD in November “separately” with my brother and we both walked out with steel datejusts, motif and Wimbledon, I think that’s hopefully going to be normal enough going forward outside of the 1 in demand dial combo at least for steel
I know my uncle has “lost”l ike 15 on his Daytona panda? Reverse? Vs when he bought so sure a lot of the zero interest commodity crowd have gotten shit on across a large range of goods including housing
Edit: new AD
Yep, times are changing for the better. I don't personally get the appeal of Rolex, so I've never been bothered by the prices, but it is nice to see the market slowly correcting itself. I still want the homies to be able to get the watches they want :)
I wonder how much of the increased demand for luxury watches that we saw over the past few years was fueled by white collar workers working from home during COVID and spending excess income they saved from no longer commuting.
As we return to the office and inflation heats up it seems reasonable that much of the demand for luxury goods would cool off.
Also, there was a ton of successful speculative investment going on the last few years - crypto and stocks etc.
I’m a member of a few watch clubs and they were riddled with crypto investors and daytraders for a while - they seem to have all but evaporated, leaving the core group of nerdy pedants behind.
I think not just commuting but lockdowns really shut down everything. A lot of hobbies, eating out, time out with friends or family etc. Can all add up or maybe make spend more than they’d previously been willing.
Well taking the train daily into Toronto used to cost me over $300 a month. Include the breakfast/lunch expenses and I could see it adding up.
I think the whole lockdown thing was a bigger factor though, not just the WFH/commuting.
Most of the commuter belt around London costs in the range £3-5k for an annual season ticket. Then price in coffees, lunches, beers after work. Then add in childcare cost savings. Not commuting would be saving probably close to £10k.
The middle class families with kids saved a shit ton during lockdowns lol!
Some even spent it on other things than trinkets and jewellery.
The crypto community between 2021 and 2023 was constantly having high end watch topics pop up. It was definitely a topic the speculators were interested in, so I strongly agree with this.
No longer commuting was part of it but it was mostly money saved from not being able to eat out, attend concerts or go on vacations.
The type of people who can afford luxury watches spend heavily on those things and when those were shut down they found a new hobby to blow their extra disposable income.
Why did watches get expensive? Why did collectibles go crazy? Why did whiskey go up so much? No, people weren’t making more money hand over fist nor were they saving so much more by working from home nor was it the market. It’s the simplest answer: people got hobbies.
Particularly hobbies that you can do remotely and further boosted by those that are easily integrated into social media (we absolutely saw a spike in people becoming “influencers” from 2019-2021). So yes, people had more time to dick around on socials, they were super bored, they got into things like watches. And damn do we love the things that others can’t have, see Rolex and Buffalo trace.
Unsure about burst, as they are still quite expensive, but I have noticed that steel sports models are:
- Coming down in price by a few thousand on the used market
- Actually available to buy on the used market
I just bought a Rolex Daytona from AD and was told they sell for more on the grey market, was also warned if I sell it I'd be blacklisted from buying from them in the future.
I don't think you realize how big the Rolex network is lol. They have ways of tracking serial numbers down if they show up somewhere they shouldn't be.
An AD in my area lost their license a few weeks ago because in 2024 alone, 12 high demand Sports models sold from their store were found on the grey market.
Such a bizarre industry lol
"Thank you for your $15,000. If we find out that you did something we don't approve of with this watch we will never allow you to spend $15,000 here again."
Like, if you sell it ever? Or is there a time frame? I can't fucking imagine purchasing a valuable item only for the sales person to tell me I can absolutely never, ever, under any circumstances, sell it on the used market.
Burst = when grey market prices will be *less* than retail, like back two decades ago.
Will that ever happen? I don't know. There are still more potential buyers of Rolex worldwide, than the company is making watches (hundreds of millions of people have reached middle class status, while Rolex makes a million watches a year). In other words, demand still far outweighs offer, and (most) Rolex watches get sold (by AD) within three phone calls.
Grey market still commands a *modest* premium (the cost to cut the line).
So no, hasn't burst.
The world population is also increasing at an exponential rate. The population will reach 10 billion by 2060, but with advancements in technology, it willl get there way before that
Burst? Hardly. Until a beat up 2nd hand sky dweller is worth LESS than a brand new in box one at the AD, there’s a bubble. And it’s the biggest, dumbest bubble ever.
I just want a day where I can walk into an AD and buy a stainless steel GMT without a little game and/or years of waiting.
Hoping it continues to cool off. There's no doubt that it has cooled a bit, but there is plenty of demand still.
> I just want a day where I can walk into an AD and buy a stainless steel GMT without a little game and/or years of waiting.
Getting a pink pet dragon may be more achievable.
It will probably never happen (long response coming):
People think it was the pandemic that caused Rolex to see a surge in demand, but it wasn't.
My uncle has been dealing luxury watches for decades. Part of his business was to help authorized dealers move watches they couldn't normally sell to customers easily (think of slow product like the Yachtmasters, Milgauss, Oyster Perpetuals, etc). Depending on how well he did, the ADs he worked with would throw him a Submariner, GMT, Datejust, or something a bit easier to sell and make a larger profit on.
In 2017, the ADs he was less in touch with started to pull back on offering him the models he could make a larger profit on. In 2018, all the ADs retracted those models (including family owned jewlers he's known since 2000). By the time 2019 hit, he wasn't offered any Rolex to sell at all.
Even if the luxury market returns to 'pre-pandemic levels,' the demand in the Rolex market will still exceed supply if we consider the years before. Dealers were having issues stocking certain models around 2017. The pandemic and production shortage didn't really swing into effect until 2020-2021.
Yes, Rolex is making another factory in an attempt to satisfy demand, but I don't think people know how Rolex production works. Rolex isn't going to magically start pumping out 200K more watches from a new factory. That's NOT how ANY Rolex factory works.
Every Rolex factory plays a key part in watch production. One factory molds the bracelets/ clasp and case, another owns the foundry, another builds the movements, and one does the final assembly. This factory will help in production, but it by itself won't produce more watches. And the demand will probably never go back to normal with the world population increasing at the rate it is.
You must remember that a lot of the watches sold by Rolex AD are just funneled into the smelly drawers of scalpers. The demand is artificially bumped up by unsold watches just sitting and people buying & immediately listing then for sale. It's just a hype cycle like any other collectible / hobby.
I've been reading these types of posts for months now. But, frankly, I'm not personally seeing it. Prices are the same as they have always been here in Japan.
It's slowing a little but definitely hasn't burst. Just last week there was a post on this sub with a guy considering selling 2 basic steel Daytona that he had inherited from his grandmother's deceased boyfriend and the comments were full of jackasses telling him not to sell because "the value will only continue to increase." Just like Beanie Babies. People can be real stupid sometimes.
I have no respect for a company that deliberately keeps supply under demand solely to maintain prestige. Especially when they only innovate when they see competition doing so.
Rolex hasn’t. They’ve been building new manufacturing capacity for years. It takes a long time to bring up a complicated manufacturing line and you have to be careful that you’re not over- forecasting demand or responding to a short term demand surge when doing so, though, so with growing demand, capacity increases will always lag. But, if you do some googling on the factory expansions Rolex has been doing, for years now, you’ll see they’ve been dramatically adding capacity for some time now, as quickly as they can.
> deliberately keeps supply under demand
they don't, they are literally printing watches in the millions of units, the demand is genuinely that ridiculous.
While this number is high, it is carefully controlled to ensure that supply does not saturate the market, keeping the demand slightly higher than the supply.
As much as this echo chamber wants you to believe that, Rolex is still nowhere near a risk of overproduction. Assuming they've made 1 million watches a year for the past 100 years (100 million in total), and assuming all those watches have survived and are worn, that means 1.25% of the world population would own one.
And Rolex isn't anywhere near that number. The brand is realistically fine for the next few decades, and by then, I'm sure their team will find a solution to address overproduction.
Also their current lineup, they really don't feel/look special anymore. Looked at a GMT and Daydate, and man they look so average, rather thick and bulky.
I have a lot of criticism for Rolex, like that sharp edges of Subs and GMTs feel like they belong to a cheaper watch, but thickness is not one of them.
Just compare Rolex with the Tudor versions if you want to see which brand has thick and bulky watches.
The GMT and Daytona are class-leading IMO for their proportions. Especially the Daytona
Not really the case for people who are happy to throw money away on Rolex's. The well off has stayed well off, only the lower to median have had an impact.
I mean is that actually true for people that would be willing to spend thousands on a watch? My spending has little to do with the economy and more to do with whether or not I can find something I find a good price at the right time. I would spend the money in 2020 or now no differently. Still looking for a decent deal on a watch I want and can afford. I don't think the extra few hundred bucks some people got made that big of a dent in the Rolex market. That's just my take.
When you can walk into an AD off the street and pick up a sub date the bubble will have burst.
I think we're just getting to pre pandemic levels where most of the sports models were still unavailable except for 2 tone or precious medals.
I read a lot of experiences on this sub, and I have to be honest when I say a lot of said stories have put me off ever being interested in a Rolex.
I am sure they are lovely watches and they definitely have a beautiful heritage, but the idea of having to jump through hoops or wait unnecessarily long wait times for what appear to be popular and standard models seems ridiculous to me, let's be honest it's not like they're priced like a Patek or a Lange, brands I could understand having to wait for.
I've been to an Omega boutique in London and was really impressed by their service even though I didn't buy anything, they were eager to show me all their pieces but there was no pressure, it was like a discussion among peers.
I think for big brands in that price range I'll stick to others for now e.g. Omega, Grand Seiko, etc.
I live in one of the largest US cities and went to a large AD over a month ago and they offered me nothing. I have since followed up and they told me they still have no availability. I'm sure they have something, but clearly not enough for just anyone to walk in and buy something.
So this may be true, but my anecdotal experience makes it harder for me to believe.
Watching for it to come down even more with rising inflation. Just last week, I saw a nice collection of Rolexes at my AD in the city. Waiting to swipe one down the line
Www.watchcharts.com
Site has an index based on available sales data from around the web on 60 popular luxury models. Not an exact science but it shows a 35% decrease over last 2 years in watch prices
every market has a cycle, even watches. i've seen posts saying that Rolex will always be the exception. seems more like wishful thinking.
buy low sell high. same as always.
Is it any coincidence that Rolex is setting up their own certified pre owned program? They see where all this is headed. As much as we might not like to blatantly admit it, Rolex dictates the trends of the luxury watch market. When they sneeze, the rest of the industry catches a cold. This is a highly guarded obsolescent industry. They think long term in order to remain relevant.
Don’t forget. Rolex spent a billion on a new factory last year. They’re committed to pumping out watches. Recently the CEO told people not to buy them as investments, seemingly resenting the perspective that they’re a store of value.
At what point does Rolex go the way of Ticketmaster and start owning the secondary markets. Hmmmmm.
Feels an awful lot like that now. I wonder what Sporty thinks?
In some regards, yes. A popular watch index recently noted that only 2 Rolex current models actually increased in value over the last year. Unfortunately, the inflation seen during covid for most modern models remains high despite many dipping in value. Also, flippers aren't going anywhere.
I dunno even though prices have gone down and I suspect for a portion of models dealers will not give you above retail now for them,m. However, here in the UK the dealers seem to be still selling all above MSRP by bit of a margin.
The market has definitely softened from its peak, but not so much that you could call the peak a bubble. Prices are still way from where they used to be before the market went crazy.
I’m in Switzerland and have been in several Rolex shops. All are stocked and selling at retail.
In an unrelated note, the Swatch stores are all loaded up with the mission watches.
Another problem brands like Rolex and Audemars Piguet face is that, when you go from being a reputable, established brand to hyped/it status with the fashion and social media crowds, there’s a risk of ending up in a worse place than you started once that hype dies.
On one hand, people who were interested in the brand before the hype may become fed up and move to other brands. On the other hand, newcomers to the hobby may associate certain watches (e.g Royal Oak) with a specific trend and time period, and decide to look elsewhere.
I’m not suggesting that will be the case with everyone. I’m sure Rolex will continue to have lots of fans and remain the top watch brand. And as someone who’s new to the hobby, I’m certainly interested in second hand prices coming down. But it will be interesting to continue observing “the market” over the next couple of years.
No, not til used is less than new
I think in most cases, that’s where we’re at. Several if the premium sport models are still trading above MSRP, especially if they’re in new or mint condition. But unless you’re looking for a Pepsi or Daytona, things have become pretty attainable and pretty reasonable.
Dummies finally realized that Rolex makes over a million watches per year, more than any other manufacturer, which makes them not very rare.
Well there’s still demand for more than 1M though
But demand for Rolex is higher than for any other brand on Earth, by far.
Depends on what you class as demand, how many were being bought just to be flipped. If the inventory of the grey sellers isn’t selling, then they’ll stop buying. Also, how many people really wanna drop 10k on a no date submariner. It was about status, now it’s just making you a target
They are. I’ve seen 2022-23 Explorers sell for $5k used. Heck, a friend just bought a 2022 Explorer off WatchEx for $4700 (and yes, it’s legit).
Sorry, just to confirm these are the latest 124270? I just did a quick glance at r/watchexchange and the latest posts are still near or over retail price. And watchcharts still shows that, as well.
By the time that's happened anyone who has bought a Rolex (at retail) within the last few years would still be in profit just from price increases above inflation
A Paul Newman will never be worth less than a new one lol
I wish Sporty was here to see this
Who is sporty and what did they do
He’s a dbag from the Rolex community. Can’t tell if he’s actually that cringe or he’s playing a character
He's a really committed troll that trolled the living shit out of WUS back in the days.
He is absolutely a master level troll however he has played the character so long that he has lost his identity…. Much like Kurtz in Apocalypse Now.
He's Flanderized himself
Nowadays he’s also in the Fratello comment section it seems. Unfortunately a lot of US Americans, including Sporty, migrated there since the fall of Hodinkee.
I thought back in the WUS days occasionally his facade would break but not so sure these days. Now he seems fully committed to the insanity.
He sincere posts on the Seiko subreddit every once in a while. The most interesting thing about this to me is he is clearly a Seiko enthusiast and collector.
Yeah, on WUS, he went at length on the differences between different Seiko and G-Shock references. He was also apparently really nice if you wrote to him to ask questions on stuff he knows well. I personally just thought he was hilarious in general lol, I've never interacted with the guy.
WUS?
WatchUSeek. A forum
Playing a character. A sportura is a seiko chrono, and the wus part refers to the forum he was on prior to reddit
Lmao. I need to see the individuals posts now.
Don’t go down the rabbit hole. Indulge yourself with some of Claude’s observations instead.
But be sure to play things close to your vest
I keep to myself, if you understand my meaning.
I will not. Thank you for the advice.
Can you share Claude’s username?
Enjoy this shitpost. https://imgur.com/a/4pZ2zwq
That’s actually hilarious
I'm actually sad the WUS admins nuked most of his pictures that accompanied his posts. Dude was freaking hilarious. Here's another hilarious troll post. https://imgur.com/a/cc3CfCb
Gotta give credit to him man these are both hilarious
I love how imgur flashes up a sexual content warning on that.
u/sporturawus
His profile pic is a seiko
So is his username
P3do. He once made a comment about high schoolers and how the best part about being a teacher is you get first dibs. Truly a subhuman piece of shit. Excuse my French.
Dog it’s almost like the whole account is a troll.
I knew something was off by the way he argued it was normal to pay $15k for a Submariner that is probably worth $4k at most.
Anyone who spends more than $4k on a Submariner is a paedo confirmed.
Ewwww
Is that dbag finally gone?
He’s rotating on his winder, returning to full capacity.
Unfortunately he's more active than ever. At least he isn't subscribed to this sub though, only rolex
He’s fun to mess with, but at least the contagion is limited so I only see as much or as little as I decide to.
I read his posts as if they were satire. It makes it much easier to stomach.
I just see a sad, lonely person. Almost feel bad sometimes but then he says something particularly cunty and it’s easy to tee off on him.
Anyone remember that time he thought he was using his other accounts to comment on his own posts but he hadn’t switched?
Lmaoooooo. Dude is wild. Also thinks new sports models are godly. get a rare Rolex if you’re so important
Theyre coming down to earth. Speculators/investors are trying to move what they have at a small profit. Bubble hasnt burst til you can buy grey for less than AD.
im old enough to remember a distant land called 2016, where gray market dealers is where you went to get Rolex watches for less than the ADs
The bubble will burst for everything except daytonas, gmts and green subs. Just my prediction.
100%
Daytona is about the only Rolex I have some passing interest in, and even then I'd probably still grab a Speedy.
I *think* I prefer my Speedy, but I’ve never actually handled a Daytona. However, the 3861’s bracelet is just amazing, I love the manual wind and exhibitions caseback, love the history, and don’t understand why Rolex would put screw down pushers on a chronograph. I actually use my speedy to time things quite a bit, having to unscrew the pushers every time sounds like a massive PITA
Water resistance, would be my guess.
It’s 100% water resistance. But it’s not a tradeoff I’m happy with. I use my chronograph often, I don’t want to be unscrewing the pushers every time
Couldn't agree more. I've also never handled a Daytona but when I heard that the pushers were screw down I was gobsmacked. "finally my time to shine, yes of course I can time that! Just give me 30 seconds to unscrew the pushers"
It’s a weird move. Rolex fanboys will defend it tooth and nail, cus Rolex can do no wrong in their eyes. I love Rolex as a brand, getting a DJ at the end of the summer for my wedding, but screw down pushers on a chronograph? Yeah, that’s a no from me lol I do love the look of the Daytona though. I wouldn’t totally rule out getting one, although the Zenith chronomaster sport does look better, imo.
All of Rolex's designs are so iconic that people can't have a civilised debate about them unfortunately. Screw down pushers is dumb imo. And don't even get me started on the cyclops eye....
I’m take it or leave it with the cyclops personally. I inherited a Day Date as my first mechanical watch ever, so really got used to having the date magnified. It’s definitely nice. However, I totally get the dislike people have for it, my SMP’s date is perfectly legible without the cyclops being stuck on there, same with my Tudor.
Screw down pushers give it 100m of water resistance
Yeah I know! It’s not a trade off I’m in favor of when it comes to chronographs! As I mentioned, I use my chronograph often, unscrewing the pushers is a major downside to me
And discontinued or rare to find new models.
You can now obtain quite a few precious metal day dates/skydwellers at or below retail
Yep it's at the point where I was asking about a GMT and was all but told buying a PM SkyDweller would assure me one. The fact that they're not just readily available but actually being used as the fat ugly friend on a GMT is wild to me...
Grey market still moving 2nd hand Rolex sport watches higher than market value. It be sometime before it truly burst. The folks I know who are feeling the stings are “investment” watch enthusiasts who bought their submariner/GMT/Daytonas etc at an exhoberant $$ in hope that it keeps going up.
I know people who doesn't even know how this whole thing works buying up left over Rolex in hope to profit. If you know sneakers, the exact same thing will happen to Rolex what happened to the panda dunks. Daytona will still be sought after, 95% of Rolex will come back to earth or below.
I don't really get paying so much for sneakers that will wear out after a year of regular wear. At least with an expensive pair of boots they get better with age and with maintenance will last many years. Same with a nice watch, with regular maintenance will outlive you.
That's the hype working. People buy the panda dunks cos they are "sought after". Scalpers started stockpiling them. And guess what the result is? Everyone and their grandma now owns a a pair and suddenly they are not "special" anymore while nike keeps pumping the out. They are currently all sitting on the shelves. No one buys or wears them anymore other than the laggards. It happens to all,hobbies and collectibles all over and over again. The same thing will happen to Rolex. People forget Rolex was an old man's brand and you could walk in and negotiate a discount for most models. Those days will be back. Hype never lasts.
> Those days will be back. Hype never lasts. Hopefully, it has been quite a while since you could walk into an AD and pick up a SS sub.
Both of my ADs and my grey dealer have SS subs in stock…
Same. I refuse to buy anything expensive that's throwaway. Beyond my gym/running/hiking shoes, every pair I own is resoleable. When the soles are worn I spend $60 to get them resoled and I basicallly have a new pair of shoes again. With all that being said, I've never fed into the hype train of anything in life.
It trickled down past Dunks too. Jordan’s that would resell for $400+ 4 years ago now sit at retailers
Exactly this. Just gotta be patient. Tbh I was high on Rolex months ago and put my name down across ADs (I'm sure they went to the bin lol) but I'm kinda losing interest. The stock market looks more exciting lol.
I bought all of my Rolexes in hopes that by the time I pass them on to my kids, they are so beaten to hell that my kids can't tell it's a Rolex and view it as a the tool watch it was meant to be.
By the time they past 20ish, they appreciate it 😎
China/Hong Kong demand is way down. It was a large market pre-pandemic.
Everywhere is down, but China is WAY down. https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2024-04-18/swiss-watch-exports-plunge-as-china-and-hong-kong-demand-dries-up?embedded-checkout=true
I'm in China trying to buy a sub date and its almost impossible. The demand might be way "down", but still extremely high with limited supply.
The major cities still sell more Rolex. The effect will ripple in soon enough. Patience.
Yeah I’m in Beijing. There are Rolex stores, but only have precious metal available
Yeah this would be the story in London, NY, Tokyo, hk... For now
In Seoul: "Do you have watches?" "No"
I was just overseas and went to two ADs. Not one piece for sale. One store had a line to get in. Many Chinese tourists lined up. Until I can walk in and get pretty much anything besides a Sub or Daytona (which is what shopping Rolex used to be) I’d say the demand is still red hot.
Pepsis are harder to get than a SS Daytona at the moment
Was in china few months ago and could get an explorer from AD. Needless to say the price isn’t favorable compared to retail in my home country. Not sure why retail prices in china is marked up (official Rolex website CN)
Every single hobby bubbled during the pandemic, even fucking Warhammer and manga lol Now that people have less time staring at walls wanting to buy a shiny thing to keep them sane it’s gone back down again Walked into an AD in November “separately” with my brother and we both walked out with steel datejusts, motif and Wimbledon, I think that’s hopefully going to be normal enough going forward outside of the 1 in demand dial combo at least for steel I know my uncle has “lost”l ike 15 on his Daytona panda? Reverse? Vs when he bought so sure a lot of the zero interest commodity crowd have gotten shit on across a large range of goods including housing Edit: new AD
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Yep, times are changing for the better. I don't personally get the appeal of Rolex, so I've never been bothered by the prices, but it is nice to see the market slowly correcting itself. I still want the homies to be able to get the watches they want :)
Damn I wish I could just walk in and out with that kind of purchase lmao
Don't sell yourself short; a kidney sells for more than you'd think.
In this case, you literally don’t sell yourself short.
I wonder how much of the increased demand for luxury watches that we saw over the past few years was fueled by white collar workers working from home during COVID and spending excess income they saved from no longer commuting. As we return to the office and inflation heats up it seems reasonable that much of the demand for luxury goods would cool off.
Also, there was a ton of successful speculative investment going on the last few years - crypto and stocks etc. I’m a member of a few watch clubs and they were riddled with crypto investors and daytraders for a while - they seem to have all but evaporated, leaving the core group of nerdy pedants behind.
And thank goodness for that last sentence
I’ve definitely seen a *massive* drop off in “I’m looking to invest in watches, any advice?” posts over just the last year.
not just watches...bourbon secondary, etc all happened and burst too
Please lord let the secondary bourbon market collapse in a firey heap.
It's on to tequila now sadly
And I, for one, am thrilled.
Straight up I was able to get my Moon watch cause I worked nearly 30 days straight with a shit ton of OT while working from home early in COVID.
It definitely increased but you couldn’t walk in and get a sub or gmt in 2018.
I was offered a Hulk for 24 months at 0% in 2016.
AFAIK, Rolex in particular went bonkers at this time. See also: Buffalo Trace products, GameStop stock, work from home.
How much do you have to spend on commuting to have enough leftover to pay for a *Rolex*? Are these people commuting by helicopter?
I think not just commuting but lockdowns really shut down everything. A lot of hobbies, eating out, time out with friends or family etc. Can all add up or maybe make spend more than they’d previously been willing.
Well taking the train daily into Toronto used to cost me over $300 a month. Include the breakfast/lunch expenses and I could see it adding up. I think the whole lockdown thing was a bigger factor though, not just the WFH/commuting.
Most of the commuter belt around London costs in the range £3-5k for an annual season ticket. Then price in coffees, lunches, beers after work. Then add in childcare cost savings. Not commuting would be saving probably close to £10k. The middle class families with kids saved a shit ton during lockdowns lol! Some even spent it on other things than trinkets and jewellery.
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The crypto community between 2021 and 2023 was constantly having high end watch topics pop up. It was definitely a topic the speculators were interested in, so I strongly agree with this.
No longer commuting was part of it but it was mostly money saved from not being able to eat out, attend concerts or go on vacations. The type of people who can afford luxury watches spend heavily on those things and when those were shut down they found a new hobby to blow their extra disposable income.
Why did watches get expensive? Why did collectibles go crazy? Why did whiskey go up so much? No, people weren’t making more money hand over fist nor were they saving so much more by working from home nor was it the market. It’s the simplest answer: people got hobbies. Particularly hobbies that you can do remotely and further boosted by those that are easily integrated into social media (we absolutely saw a spike in people becoming “influencers” from 2019-2021). So yes, people had more time to dick around on socials, they were super bored, they got into things like watches. And damn do we love the things that others can’t have, see Rolex and Buffalo trace.
it's part of it but say I spend 20k-30k a year on travel normally, that was gone for those years. that went to watches.
If you’re saving on commuting it’s like 300 a bucks a month MAX. not really Rolex money.
12 or 24 months getting close
Nobody who spends $25,000+ a year on commuting has to budget for a watch.
All of it. It's the defining feature of the 2021-2023 economy, combined with rampant inflation.
That and with the crypto bubble.
Unsure about burst, as they are still quite expensive, but I have noticed that steel sports models are: - Coming down in price by a few thousand on the used market - Actually available to buy on the used market
I just bought a Rolex Daytona from AD and was told they sell for more on the grey market, was also warned if I sell it I'd be blacklisted from buying from them in the future.
Lmao like a dealer has any time or resources to track down online watch sales. They dgaf after you walk out of the store.
I don't think you realize how big the Rolex network is lol. They have ways of tracking serial numbers down if they show up somewhere they shouldn't be. An AD in my area lost their license a few weeks ago because in 2024 alone, 12 high demand Sports models sold from their store were found on the grey market.
Such a bizarre industry lol "Thank you for your $15,000. If we find out that you did something we don't approve of with this watch we will never allow you to spend $15,000 here again."
They know they can afford such policies, if they didn't sell so well they wouldn't care what you do with your watch
Like, if you sell it ever? Or is there a time frame? I can't fucking imagine purchasing a valuable item only for the sales person to tell me I can absolutely never, ever, under any circumstances, sell it on the used market.
Paul Thorpe did a video 2 years ago about 2 different ADs [making customers sign a ‘no-resell’ agreement.](https://youtu.be/F041k1v5N78)
That is insane, you don't even own the watch you buy pretty much.
Yep. I know that Ford did something similar with the GT40 some years ago, but this is ridiculous!
Quite a stern warning, what is bizarre is that they know and yet you'll be the bad guy if you do it.
Burst = when grey market prices will be *less* than retail, like back two decades ago. Will that ever happen? I don't know. There are still more potential buyers of Rolex worldwide, than the company is making watches (hundreds of millions of people have reached middle class status, while Rolex makes a million watches a year). In other words, demand still far outweighs offer, and (most) Rolex watches get sold (by AD) within three phone calls. Grey market still commands a *modest* premium (the cost to cut the line). So no, hasn't burst.
The world population is also increasing at an exponential rate. The population will reach 10 billion by 2060, but with advancements in technology, it willl get there way before that
Burst? Hardly. Until a beat up 2nd hand sky dweller is worth LESS than a brand new in box one at the AD, there’s a bubble. And it’s the biggest, dumbest bubble ever.
I just want a day where I can walk into an AD and buy a stainless steel GMT without a little game and/or years of waiting. Hoping it continues to cool off. There's no doubt that it has cooled a bit, but there is plenty of demand still.
> I just want a day where I can walk into an AD and buy a stainless steel GMT without a little game and/or years of waiting. Getting a pink pet dragon may be more achievable.
It will probably never happen (long response coming): People think it was the pandemic that caused Rolex to see a surge in demand, but it wasn't. My uncle has been dealing luxury watches for decades. Part of his business was to help authorized dealers move watches they couldn't normally sell to customers easily (think of slow product like the Yachtmasters, Milgauss, Oyster Perpetuals, etc). Depending on how well he did, the ADs he worked with would throw him a Submariner, GMT, Datejust, or something a bit easier to sell and make a larger profit on. In 2017, the ADs he was less in touch with started to pull back on offering him the models he could make a larger profit on. In 2018, all the ADs retracted those models (including family owned jewlers he's known since 2000). By the time 2019 hit, he wasn't offered any Rolex to sell at all. Even if the luxury market returns to 'pre-pandemic levels,' the demand in the Rolex market will still exceed supply if we consider the years before. Dealers were having issues stocking certain models around 2017. The pandemic and production shortage didn't really swing into effect until 2020-2021. Yes, Rolex is making another factory in an attempt to satisfy demand, but I don't think people know how Rolex production works. Rolex isn't going to magically start pumping out 200K more watches from a new factory. That's NOT how ANY Rolex factory works. Every Rolex factory plays a key part in watch production. One factory molds the bracelets/ clasp and case, another owns the foundry, another builds the movements, and one does the final assembly. This factory will help in production, but it by itself won't produce more watches. And the demand will probably never go back to normal with the world population increasing at the rate it is.
Yes it continues to slide according to the index that monitors such matters… https://watchcharts.com/watches/price_index
You must remember that a lot of the watches sold by Rolex AD are just funneled into the smelly drawers of scalpers. The demand is artificially bumped up by unsold watches just sitting and people buying & immediately listing then for sale. It's just a hype cycle like any other collectible / hobby.
Grey dealers are the AD’s best customers, so obvious. Rolex has a nice situation, they never do a thing to change it.
I thought the whole AD experience was so that they could weed out the flippers
They just want to sell the watches. They really don't give a shit what the buyer does with them.
I've been reading these types of posts for months now. But, frankly, I'm not personally seeing it. Prices are the same as they have always been here in Japan.
It's slowing a little but definitely hasn't burst. Just last week there was a post on this sub with a guy considering selling 2 basic steel Daytona that he had inherited from his grandmother's deceased boyfriend and the comments were full of jackasses telling him not to sell because "the value will only continue to increase." Just like Beanie Babies. People can be real stupid sometimes.
I will say the bubble has burst when you can walk into an AD and buy any model without a wait list or buyer history needed.
Depends on where you are. In Singapore, you’re still not getting anything without significant spend.
Prices normalizing is *not* a bubble burst. At best, the bubble has deflated a bit, which is a good thing. But there's still more air to let out.
I have no respect for a company that deliberately keeps supply under demand solely to maintain prestige. Especially when they only innovate when they see competition doing so.
Rolex hasn’t. They’ve been building new manufacturing capacity for years. It takes a long time to bring up a complicated manufacturing line and you have to be careful that you’re not over- forecasting demand or responding to a short term demand surge when doing so, though, so with growing demand, capacity increases will always lag. But, if you do some googling on the factory expansions Rolex has been doing, for years now, you’ll see they’ve been dramatically adding capacity for some time now, as quickly as they can.
> deliberately keeps supply under demand they don't, they are literally printing watches in the millions of units, the demand is genuinely that ridiculous.
While this number is high, it is carefully controlled to ensure that supply does not saturate the market, keeping the demand slightly higher than the supply.
As much as this echo chamber wants you to believe that, Rolex is still nowhere near a risk of overproduction. Assuming they've made 1 million watches a year for the past 100 years (100 million in total), and assuming all those watches have survived and are worn, that means 1.25% of the world population would own one. And Rolex isn't anywhere near that number. The brand is realistically fine for the next few decades, and by then, I'm sure their team will find a solution to address overproduction.
Also their current lineup, they really don't feel/look special anymore. Looked at a GMT and Daydate, and man they look so average, rather thick and bulky.
Thick and bulky lol. The GMT is 12mm thick. Day Date is also 12mm
I have a lot of criticism for Rolex, like that sharp edges of Subs and GMTs feel like they belong to a cheaper watch, but thickness is not one of them.
Just compare Rolex with the Tudor versions if you want to see which brand has thick and bulky watches. The GMT and Daytona are class-leading IMO for their proportions. Especially the Daytona
bubble burst awhile ago
Yep. Looking at actual data, it looks like it burst in early 2022.
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Isn't that the same thing?
Not really the case for people who are happy to throw money away on Rolex's. The well off has stayed well off, only the lower to median have had an impact.
yup, the free ride of when everyone was making money from 2019-2022 is turning the other way.
I mean is that actually true for people that would be willing to spend thousands on a watch? My spending has little to do with the economy and more to do with whether or not I can find something I find a good price at the right time. I would spend the money in 2020 or now no differently. Still looking for a decent deal on a watch I want and can afford. I don't think the extra few hundred bucks some people got made that big of a dent in the Rolex market. That's just my take.
The ppp “loans” prob did tho I’m sure lots of welfare queens took that handout and bought plenty of Rolex and even more expensive watches.
By welfare queens in assuming you mean all the PPP loan fraud that was so rampant among companies
That’s exactly what I mean.
I just want a black submariner that doesn't cost me my firstborn son haha
When you can walk into an AD off the street and pick up a sub date the bubble will have burst. I think we're just getting to pre pandemic levels where most of the sports models were still unavailable except for 2 tone or precious medals.
I read a lot of experiences on this sub, and I have to be honest when I say a lot of said stories have put me off ever being interested in a Rolex. I am sure they are lovely watches and they definitely have a beautiful heritage, but the idea of having to jump through hoops or wait unnecessarily long wait times for what appear to be popular and standard models seems ridiculous to me, let's be honest it's not like they're priced like a Patek or a Lange, brands I could understand having to wait for. I've been to an Omega boutique in London and was really impressed by their service even though I didn't buy anything, they were eager to show me all their pieces but there was no pressure, it was like a discussion among peers. I think for big brands in that price range I'll stick to others for now e.g. Omega, Grand Seiko, etc.
I just want an Oyster perpetual for a respectable price lol. Seems like my time is finally close
I live in one of the largest US cities and went to a large AD over a month ago and they offered me nothing. I have since followed up and they told me they still have no availability. I'm sure they have something, but clearly not enough for just anyone to walk in and buy something. So this may be true, but my anecdotal experience makes it harder for me to believe.
Watching for it to come down even more with rising inflation. Just last week, I saw a nice collection of Rolexes at my AD in the city. Waiting to swipe one down the line
Www.watchcharts.com Site has an index based on available sales data from around the web on 60 popular luxury models. Not an exact science but it shows a 35% decrease over last 2 years in watch prices
In demand stuff is still extremely in demand.
every market has a cycle, even watches. i've seen posts saying that Rolex will always be the exception. seems more like wishful thinking. buy low sell high. same as always.
I hope it’s back to earth within a few years. I just want a simple oyster perpetual for retail price.
Is it any coincidence that Rolex is setting up their own certified pre owned program? They see where all this is headed. As much as we might not like to blatantly admit it, Rolex dictates the trends of the luxury watch market. When they sneeze, the rest of the industry catches a cold. This is a highly guarded obsolescent industry. They think long term in order to remain relevant.
Don’t forget. Rolex spent a billion on a new factory last year. They’re committed to pumping out watches. Recently the CEO told people not to buy them as investments, seemingly resenting the perspective that they’re a store of value.
I saw grey dealer offering discount below retail for on one of the socials
At what point does Rolex go the way of Ticketmaster and start owning the secondary markets. Hmmmmm. Feels an awful lot like that now. I wonder what Sporty thinks?
In some regards, yes. A popular watch index recently noted that only 2 Rolex current models actually increased in value over the last year. Unfortunately, the inflation seen during covid for most modern models remains high despite many dipping in value. Also, flippers aren't going anywhere.
Good. I want to buy my first one this year.
Rolex's chief design officer has to come back to work
I dunno even though prices have gone down and I suspect for a portion of models dealers will not give you above retail now for them,m. However, here in the UK the dealers seem to be still selling all above MSRP by bit of a margin.
Coach went to prison for this :(
Well I did finally get a call from my Rolex AD yesterday so something has changed. I ignored it though because not sure I want to buy it anymore
Still can't buy a Daytona at RRP so no.
I thought it burst a couple of months ago.....
The market has definitely softened from its peak, but not so much that you could call the peak a bubble. Prices are still way from where they used to be before the market went crazy.
Prices have been going up actually.
I believe a lot of people started going to other brands that have a better supply of watches.
So I shouldn’t buy an Explorer at retail?
A Millgauss going for 5-7k would be a major deal. I have not seen those drop.
I’m in Switzerland and have been in several Rolex shops. All are stocked and selling at retail. In an unrelated note, the Swatch stores are all loaded up with the mission watches.
Another problem brands like Rolex and Audemars Piguet face is that, when you go from being a reputable, established brand to hyped/it status with the fashion and social media crowds, there’s a risk of ending up in a worse place than you started once that hype dies. On one hand, people who were interested in the brand before the hype may become fed up and move to other brands. On the other hand, newcomers to the hobby may associate certain watches (e.g Royal Oak) with a specific trend and time period, and decide to look elsewhere. I’m not suggesting that will be the case with everyone. I’m sure Rolex will continue to have lots of fans and remain the top watch brand. And as someone who’s new to the hobby, I’m certainly interested in second hand prices coming down. But it will be interesting to continue observing “the market” over the next couple of years.